>> jmia, been reporting since early november. >> and ripping, too. >> ccxi, bio pharma. >> and josh brown. >> general motors. i think the stock breaks out >> oh, interesting all right. that's a nice day for gm thank you, everybody does it for us "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." here's what's ahead. one of wall street's biggest head fund managers says a big rally is coming as soon as the next covid bill passes although it may not be until the next next year should you get invested now? gee goldman sachs says a bull market is coming. quibi and investors sitting on a lot of cash can it still be the chip king? let's start with the

markets. dom chu here for that. >> all the cash investors are sitting on might be earning more interest because of rising interest rates market for stocks, overall, fairly stable, we'll call it fractional gains and losses all day. for the s&p 500 specifically, you can see they're up about four points. at the highs of the day we were up 11 handles. at the lows, just down 20. you can see fairly stable. the nasdaq underperforming today. off by one-quarter of 1% speaking of those interest rates, long-term ones in the u.s., specifically tied to the ten-year u.s. treasury note, ticking higher have been for quite some time here it's important 85 basis points or 0.85% we're sitting below a longer term trend line called the 200-day moving average or average price for yields coming down the last time we ticked above that level, that 200-day average yield was back in december of 2018 that's why some traders are paying attention but that ten-year note yield and rising rates is playing out in

several parts of the market. two in particular i want to call your attention to. what's happening right now with banks and home builders. check out home builders. great existing home sales numbers. big gains there. why are the housing stocks down? rising interest rates might play a part banks like money centers, jpmorgan chase up 3%, and zions ba bancorp could be a driving trends in the coming days it, weeks and months back over to you. >> thank you, dom. these markets are in the stimulus holding pattern for now. investing titan paul tuder jones says an upside after we get the first round of covid relief. >> you'll have at some point in the first quarter next year, you'll have a big move to the upside from whatever level that might be

as people get cash from this first stimulus program and they deploy that in a variety of financial assets, which could be stocks and bonds so, it's going to be really tricky i could easily see a situation where the market sells off in the year end and then you have that typical beginning of the year rally that might ramp all the way through the end of the -- certainly into the midpart of the first quarter. >> so, let's talk stocks, rates and more with elana hernan da and jim karen from morgan stanley investment management. welcome to you both. if this upside is coming on covid relief, is that a reason for investors to be in the market right now or are you saying be wary because of the election volatility we could have >> sure, thank you for having me again. i actually don't completely agree with that statement. we still have a lot of

uncertainties in the market. one being when the fiscal stimulus bill will be passed, we know at some point between now and february, it could be passed we don't know when and how big it would be to make that statement. two, i also think we need to pay close attention to what's going to happen with the path of the economy with all the increase that we've had and cases of covid. people are going to have the confidence to go back, spend, et cetera, especially when we don't have a fiscal stimulus bill. that's why we're staying a little underweight in equities not so much because of elections, per se, but because of all these uncertainties that are still in the market. >> right but i know you guys do like some of the -- we're going to talk more about this in a moment. some areas of commoditiecommodi assets, gold, bonds, things that might make moves on inflation. let's circle back to what dom was saying about interest rates.

the ten-year is approaching its 200-day moving average around 200 basis points is it significant to you if we cross above that level >> yeah, you know, it is look, i think with the expectation of fiscal stimulus, it's not a question of if but when it actually occurs, then i think it will be natural for yields to move higher. 2020 is a bad year we have negative growth. 2021, it should be a very positive year because it's a rebound year from 2021 on top of that, you'll get pro-cyclical stimulus. that's going to give an increased boost to potential growth going forward that could potentially, if the growth impulse is strong enough t could even bring forward the first rate hike. we don't expect there to be a rate hike until 2024, maybe even later than that. the point is if the growth impulse is big enough, that could certainly happen we need to unpack this in a logical manner what drives ten-year yields. policy rates, growth

expectations, inflation expectations and term premium. we think we know what the growth impulse is going to be we can estimate what that is fed policy inflation is still relatively low. what's driving yields the most right now is the expectation and this uncertainty around what kind of fiscal impulse we're going to have and will that drive yields higher? i think the market and bond investors are hedging their bets and saying 2020 was about rates moving lower 2020 might be about a drift up higher and ten-year treasury yields could get up to 1.25% over the next couple of quarters with stronger growth, i think that's perfectly reasonable. >> yeah, it's interesting to hear your points of view about how we could keep moving higher in this range. yesterday we spoke with samir who said he would be a buyer of treasuries i know a lot of people feel that way, feeling they made more money on the fixed income side of things. elena, if we do -- even as we're

talking about how likely it is we get a relief bill any time soon, the prospect it's out there in the next six months seems to be driving bond yields higher and certain stocks higher and it's already being priced in is it going to hurt the stock market at some point to see yields continue to move up or does it just hurt certain parts of the market? >> sure. i think it all depends on what we get, both in the terms fiscal stimulus bill. i agree, it's a matter of if it's a matter of when, i'm sorry, not if. and also the election results. elections are coming up. depending if we, indeed, as they are telling by the biden administration and also get the senate potentially to be a democratic senate, when we look at the biden administration's plan in terms of increasing taxes, not only personal but also on the corporate side, as well as investments in infrastructure, clean energy,

health care and a potential bigger fiscal stimulus bill, we wait until election. they're the victorious ones. that would all help us determine what's going to happen really with the stock market. >> all right final last quick word on this. jim, you don't think we have, like, sustained inflation coming, do you >> no, not at all. i think that demand is really low. it's going to take a while for demand to really resurge that's the only thing to me that's going to really push inflation higher i think fiscal spending is offsetting the shortfall of demand that's not an immediate worry. >> yeah, kind of filling the hole right now and not necessarily building a mountain yet. or something like that guys, thank you both very much today. really appreciate your thoughts. jim caron, elena hernandez. we were mentioning the commodities. the pandemic has crashed and

prices have been underperforming. both west texas crude and brent are up 2% today, hovering around that mark for wti. my next guest is bullish on oil, as well as copper, gold and silver and says we could see a big move to the upside for commodities next year. joining me is jeff currie from goldman sachs. rattle off all the commodities you think stand to benefit here. >> well, when you look at the inventories across the entire commodity complex, it's easier to give you the number that are not bullish. coffee, cocoa and iron ore are the only not in a deficit. that's rare given where we were in the current cycle we were in the trough of a recession six months ago yet we have every market in a deficit with the exception of the three

i just ragtsttled off, which underscores the structural supply we have as you mentioned, demand across most of these markets is tepid, even oil is tepid, which underscores supply is really the driving source here. >> that's interesting. i should give you a hat tip because back in spring when oil went to minus 30 a barrel there was a big debate whether it would keep going you came on the program and you said, no, you thought the supply and demand situation would push us back into positive territory, into the 30s ultimately, and that's exactly what happened sticking with oil for a moment, where do you think we're going from here on wti, which has huge implications for a lot more of the deal activity we may or may not see into next year >> well, when you look at the nonenergy commodities, you want to be long them right now today. particularly the investment goods like copper and the rest of them because they have very strong demand being driven by a lot of these policies directed

at infrastructure projects in contrast, when you look at oil, the demand is still really weak, which means it will probably trade side ways until you whittle down that inventory overhang right now there's about 800 million barrels of excess inventory that needs to be worked through we think the earliest you can work through that is by the end of this coming winter. which means some time, second quarter next year, which is when you could see real upside in oil. our target going into the second half of next year is $65 a barrel, which is really far from here i want to emphasize, don't get too excited yet because we still have that 800 million barrels to work through what's driving that tepid demand is the loss of jet fuel demand which means you either need a vaccine or rapid testing and get people back into the sky. >> so basically you're saying, if i heard you right, you can buy pretty much all the nonenergy commodities right now. you know, it's oil that has this particular supply overhang but everyone else is pretty well

positioned reading from your note, you say, we recommend long positions across silver, copper, jet, brent, u.s. gas and gold i mean, which is why you're recommending the broad commodity basket this is fundamentally a recovery story, is that right is it predicated on anything to do with the election outcome or another round of covid relief? >> no, it actually -- i would argue it's not predicated on a demand recovery. in the nonenergy commodities, you already have the demand there. what it's really predicated on is the structural under investment and supply. this is a story very similar to what we talked about 20 years ago. we called it the revenge of the old economy then it's the same story. the new economy has siphoned off new capital that would otherwise go into the old economy industries then you layer on top of that, efg concerns, the ability to raise capital from either debt or equity is really difficult right now. and, you know, that's why we argue, we have to go all the way

to 65 because these producers are going to have to drill out of cash flow something they haven't had to do for decades. >> wow the revenge of the old economy i want a reprisal of that and i want you to come on and talk more about it. jeff, thanks so much really appreciate it thank you, sir it's always good - >> thank you >> jeff currie of goldman. coming up, the polls would suggest president trump is headed for a defeat this november, but my next guest says there are four big variables that could spell a surprise win and this they have nothing to do with a vaccine or stimulus. goldman settles the biggest bribery case >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new?

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jeff currie. news goldman sachs agreeing to pay $3 billion in the national imdb scandal. still hanging on to a gain. >> goldman sachs agreeing to pay an additional $2.6 billion in fines for the 1mdb scandal to regulators, in the u.s., uk,

hong kong and singapore following a $1.5 billion payment to malaysian authorities already. the stock high by about a percent because most of that additional $2.6 has already been provided for around about $250 million of extra provisions but not the full amount. the settlement will also say that pay has been given up by past and present executives. current leaders including david solomon, john wold woldran will forego future pay and past executives, lloyd blankfein will return past pay. some are doing so voluntarily. there's no suggestion they knew anything about the wrongdoing at the sim but the claw back is more of a sign acknowledges they were at the helm that key things occurred below them. the total amount of pay being given up is $174 million here is the breakdown. three individuals implicated in

this scheme criminally account for $67 million, and five former executives, including lloyd blankfein, account for $67 million. as it relates to gary cohn, former coo and head of economic counsel, this line in goldman sachs relates to him the firm is in active discussion with another of these retired senior executives who also already received 2011 award about returning the majority of it as well yet to confirm that aspect goldman sachs' malaysian emptity is pleading guilty as part of this as you said, kelly, seems some of this size of settlement is priced into the stock higher today. >> those executives returning comp from, in some cases, almost a decade ago, millions of

dollars that apparently they still have lying around. some of the headlines say this is the largest settlement or fine ever in a corporate criminal bribery case. another interesting nugget, goldman submitted to the labor department an application to maintain its status as a qualified professional asset manager. is this the end of the road for goldman in this 1mdb scandal and what was the worst case they could have faced in terms of other kind of criminal charges that could have come from the government >> i think the worst case could have been direct criminal charges to some of those senior executives outside of the three names who i mentioned who are facing those criminal charges. it seems to have stopped short of that. in terms of financial settlement, you know, who knows how big it could have been, but the fact that it totals now with the malaysian settlement and this additional payment just over $4 billion, under $5 billion, ultimately allows them to draw a line under it without having to do huge extra provisions that would hurt their rapt ratios and with that, hurt

their share price. the other kind, maybe not worst case scenario, but would be negative, not to get this sorted before the election. a possible change of government, and with that, having to start things all over again if the doj sort of decided to start afresh with a new administration. they've avoided that and i think that's partly why you're seeing the stock higher >> yep, up 1% still. thanks so much more bringing us those headlines. let's move to washington and take a look at these two big numbers. first, 12. that's how many days are left until the election right now also 297, that's how many days we've been in this pandemic. now as the first number gets smaller, so does the chance for more covid relief before the election ylan joins me. >> reporter: house speaker nancy pelosi and the treasury secretary will keep trying to hash out this deal today as pelosi signals some more progress in the talks.

>> i still haven't completely signed off on it but i think we're just about there we will allocate, again, the resources and the policies necessary to do that >> reporter: we're just about there. that is one of the most optimistic descriptions she's given of these discussions so far, but pelosi also still said some of the biggest issues have not yet been addressed state and local funding, the census, liability protections, and even in areas where they do agree, like schools, there is still work to do however, pelosi says she believes the negotiations are serious and that the president does want a deal, even though he tweeted this yesterday, saying, just don't see any way nancy pelosi and crying chuck schumer will be willing to do what is right for our great american workers or our wonderful usa on stimulus they bail out high crime states.

pelosi said the end of the negotiations are often the hardest part back to you. >> fair enough we appreciate the update thank you very much. ylan mui. the window of opportunity is narrowing on a stimulus deal before the election, maybe it just happens afterwards, but it would also be a chance for president trump, if it happened, to tout his economic record in his re-election bid. my next guest says there are still four variables that could mean a trump victory they have nothing to do with stimulus or even vaccines. joining me on the cnbc line is chris krueger. it's good to have you. listen, everybody remembers 2016 when the conventional wisdom, the polls pulled one way and the president pulled out a surprise win. what are you telling clients about the possibility of him to repeat this time around when it looks like his odds are even slimmer? >> it's 2020 really nothing could -- should surprise us at this point. i think one of the biggest

variable here is, we've had almost 50 million ballots already cast that's about a third of the 2016 overall total. historically, voting by mail, absentee ballots, have a much higher disqualification rate you know, people fill them out incorrectly, et cetera so, just that issue alone should give, you know, folks pause, i think. and the counts are going to take a long time. even a state like pennsylvania cannot process the ballots until november 3rd so, i mean, if, you know, a state like north carolina or florida is called early for biden, that's game over. but if these states stay close, we could well be, you know, further downfield before we know the outcome of the election. >> yeah, i mean, it's not just pennsylvania there's six big states i think michigan is another one where they can't begin counting

the mail-in ballot until election day, drawing this out it's one thing for the outcome to be drawn out and it's another thing for trump to win what seems against odds pointing in biden's favor at this point. i'm curious what you think could drive a surprise victory for him? you mentioned, obviously, some ballots could get thrown out if they're incorrectly filled out what about polling failures, shy trump voters, gop registration, three other areas you think people should keep their eye on. >> you know, the big one is the republic over the last four years, republicans in a handful of the key states, pennsylvania, florida and north carolina, have registered more voters than democrats have and, you know, these are states where, you know, the election could come down to, you know, 10,000 vote margins, the way michigan did in 2016 now, arizona is a bright spot for democrats on the registration numbers and, you know, just because you're registered doesn't mean you're voting, right

ultimately that will overindex with registration numbers. but on those registration numbers in a couple of those key states, republicans have outworked democrats. you obviously have the potential for, you know, polling problems. it would be on a scale in excess of even 1948 with harry truman defeating dewy there's also the story of 2016, the shy trump voter. what is that actual number is it the delta between trump's approval rating on the economy, which tends to be around 50% and his overall approval, which is 44%. is it 600 basis points i don't know but i think that's another area that, you know, people should keep in the back of their mind >> and finally, is it as goes the presidency, so goes the senate, you think, or what is

the possible outcome here? if the president wins, the gop may also pull out the senate win or could it be split what do you think? >> it could be split i mean, i think in reality we're not going to know the margin until january 5th. georgia has two senate races, and georgia law states if no candidate wins 50% of the vote, the top two candidates will go to a run off. that won't be until january 5th. you also have a number of races that -- on the -- on the west coast -- or the other time zones, whether it's montana or alaska, which are going to take a long time to count so, i don't think we will know the overall senate margin until january, but it's most -- a lot of the key senate races index to the big electoral college states north carolina, iowa, and then maine and montana i'd probably put as the other two ultimate

bellwethers for the senate control. >> i don't know if i can handle it, chris, if it's going to be months of uncertainty of wondering what's going to be the outcome for the senate, what's going to be the outcome for the presidency it's just going to be another suspended limbo like we've been in in 2020 in so many other ways great points thank you for joining us go ahead. >> there's not really a forcing mechanism on the elections until december 14th, when the electoral college meets in the state capitol. so, six weeks or so where we could be flying a little blind >> waiting in suspense chris krueger from cowen washington research group. thanks 11 days to go and another debate tonight. consumers have cash and that could be bullish for a number of stocks. intel is looking to convince

investors it could still be a leader in the chip world as its stock lags we'll show what it will take to win wall street's love back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back we've got a market flash on gap. its shares are jumping higher. >> the big intraday move in gap, the real tailer's investor day is going on and investors are discussing plans to close approximately 30% of their gap

and banana republic locations by end of fiscal year 2023. that's one of the driving forces the company aims to have approximately 80% of revenues coming from strictly online and off-mall locations last year gap saw e-commerce grow 95%, gaining 3.5 million new customers through online channels kelly, obviously a very big shift for a retailer that's been a mall staple for decades. it seems to be moving the stock. back over to you >> investors like the sound of it shares back over 20 bucks. let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update. >> hello here's what's happening at this hour according to a deposition released earlier today, british socialite ghislaine maxwell said under oath she had never witnessed inappropriate underage activities by the late financier jeffrey epstein but said, quote, i am not addressing any

questions about consensual adult sex. she is in jail after the judge in her criminal case called her an unacceptable flight risk. the university of arizona says contracting covid on a plane may be very low. the research involves spreading a live virus in a plane and fewer than 1% of the particles made their way into another passenger's breathing zone and 99.9% were filtered out of the cabin in minutes. clutch, a rating and reviews firm, more than half of american employees do not believe their company has successfully created diversity in 2020. and nearly two-thirds of people of color surveyed say the level of diversity at their company affects their ability to succeed. you are up to date that's the news update i'll send it back to you >> thank you very much, sue. we appreciate it. coming up, quibi short

videos were short lived. lots of new demand for the new hummer and airbnb flexes its design muscle it's coming up in "rapid fire" right after this at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. the annual enrollment period is here. the time to choose your coverage... ends december 7th. so talk to unitedhealthcare and take advantage of a wide choice of plans... including an aarp medicare advantage plan from unitedhealthcare.

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stories that should be on your radar today. it's time for "rapid fire. here to break down the headlines, julia boorstin and deirdre bosa quibi shutting down after just six months, despite raising tons of dough and getting lots of capital. here's meg whitten and jeff katzenberg. >> we changed the app around many different times, our packaging, but it was clear that for whatever reason, this was not going to be a successful as jeffrey and i had hoped. >> i think we can do -- what we can do is own it, you know, we are so appreciative of the opportunity to go pursue this really, really big idea.

for sure, you know, there was risk involved in it, but i think all of us expected a much better outcome. >> julia, you spoke with him earlier. what's your takeaway >> i think, kelly, this was radical honesty from two people who are used to winning. used to succeeding and this failed they explained all the reasons why. it was a combination of launching during covid and also making some wrong calls about things like not making it easy to share the content on quibi on social they should have made the content on quibi available on tvs sooner maybe they were spending too much per minute on content i found it refreshing to hear such honesty about those missteps. >> i find it refreshing that, you know, not everything that wealthy people throw their money at pans out. it was always going to be interesting to see if it could match the hype going into it for as obvious and easy of the

success of netflix and disney plus seems, this is a reminder it's not that easy it's hard. >> as much as you saw the use case, you saw the market they were going after, it was awe dishes and certainly high cost and risky, but every other competitor they have gone up against has not done it this way, building from scratch even netflix they were in the dvd rental business for a long time they got half a million people to sign up in a few months that's not nothing but they needed millions more >> right the last final word, deirdre >> well, i'm reminded of when e wework went bust last year today is an example of how maybe startups should go out admit their mistakes, have the founders go on tv and say, we thought one thing and it went another thing instead of media leaking and never hearing from

the founder again. in that sense i found it a bit refreshing. >> they returned $350 million of the nearly $2 billion they raised realizing it wasn't going anywhere it's not like they ran out of cash you saw the writing on the wall. it's fascinating let's move on and talk about some area that is seeing a lot of demand. apparently it's for the new hummer gm says reservations for the first yir production of their electric hummer edition 1 sold out within the first ten minutes of being available it's due to start production next fall at $112,000. production on the next edition won't be until the fall of 2022. as you pointed out, it might be over a $100,000 vehicle but the deposit was only 100 bucks. >> the cost of aspirationally owning one of these is not high. i understand, a people would say, why not give this a try it's definitely attractive across a number of levels. we don't know the number of

reservations gm has taken for this, what the first year production is. i do see what they're going after. obviously very high end. this is not truly mass market. but if you go to any -- if you go on the road and see all the jeep wranglers and jeep gladiators out there those aren't people hauling stuff and using it for a work it's a lifestyle vehicle and if you have the ev part of it, too, it completely fits. >> every teenager in my town wants a jeep wrangler. mike, one more question about gm shares, which over the past week have done really nicely. i mean, the stock is starting to kind of make a name for itself are all of the bets gm is making, including on nikola, paying off >> i think at least messaging wise the street is able to say gm is positioned in the right places they're acknowledging where the future is going to be. you also have to keep in mind, we have a car buying boom going on right here. the economy of stuff, durable goods, has been pretty strong. all of those things are working in the stock's favor and coming from an incredibly

cheap starting point as well. >> yeah, up 13% over the past week it's fairly positive >> i think this is -- if we've learned anything from tesla and nikola, creating a prototype, that's the easy part producing this -- the production, especially mass production, that's the hard part we don't know anything about how many reservations they've had, how they're going to get this production in place, so i think that that's where the hard part comes. yes, of course, gm is signaling it wants to be in this market but we've seen that time and time again in the past without a ton of success tesla is still on top. >> fair enough i think it looks kind of cool. if i had a reason to -- i don't know it is expensive but looks pretty cool the technology -- they are having a monster day today, the maker of invisalign, the stock

is up 30% and on pace for the best since 2006. they saw an uptick from new social media influencers like charlie dimilo, she posts ads like this one where she documents her trip to the den test how is this the content that influencers are putting out and it's working julia, explain this to me. >> it's she and her sister, they are very famous on tiktok for the dances they do they're not famous for their teeth, but now they've gotten famous for that. this is a perfect example of how social media is really enabling influencers to take something and go with it and make it go viral. that's obviously a very intimate thing to have someone watch you get invisalign with the lights it was a lot there i think people like to have an extra window into these people they follow on tiktok.

and everyone's on zoom, whether video chatting with their friends and family across the country, they're looking at their teeth so much right now. i think that has to be driving this as well as the social media marketing phenomenon that is tiktok >> i just love it. i love stuff like this it's totally fascinating to me the shares are up 33% today. i went in a line a couple years ago, it was the best stock in the nasdaq i went to look at smile direct which has been a tougher ipo thinking this must be a tough day for them no, they're up 7.5%. why are they benefienefitinbeneg >> really come a long way since the recent lows. i think it's probably that latter point that julia made, which is aesthetics from the neck up seem like they're enjoying a bit of a boom it's not just teeth. it's cosmetics, makeup, procedures, things like that unappreciated shutdown beneficiary in this area >> yep >> the unappreciated work from

home play we never knew we needed >> exactly before we go, guys, jony ive is the former chief design officer at apple and taking his talent to airbnb to design the next products and services. he was three decades at apple. worked on devices, wearables, even the headquarters itself, apple park everyone is scratching their heads and says, how does he apply his immense talents to a website? >> that's a good question. he was known for his industrial design, right? we just showed some of the most iconic products. but i think airbnb has always been this design-forward firm. they've really succeeded on the strength of their brand. for example, you go to airbnb.com to make a booking whereas i think that case can be made less for expedia or booking holding. one idea we floated earlier, perhaps we'll get a logo redesign i had forgotten about this but back in 2014 when airbnb did put out its logo, you see it right

now, it was a little controversial because of what it suggested. i will leave that up to you guys as to what you think it suggests perhaps -- >> i have a bigger problem with the fact that jony ive is going to go to airbnb to design a logo i get they're important but for the greater good of society, go have him do -- i don't know. something. something else >> kelly, you forgot -- it's so important to have -- if you think about design and how important it is to suck people to a website and make the experience good, as airbnb thinks about expanding into more experiences beyond the focus of home rentals, the potential is endless as they look to the future and what can happen people are so enjoying the experience on the website that they'll want to keep treating it as their destination for anything travel related. i think that's the real potential in that experience there.

>> they have something up their sleeve i look forward to seeing what it is if we ever get the ipo, maybe december now, probably 2021. we'll leave it there julia boorstin, deirdre bosa, mike santoli joining me. intel is trading lower ahead of its earning and down 13% in the past quarter veorite 2020 laggard convince insts 's still a chip champion that's next on "the exchange." 5g just got real.

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welcome back intel is on deck with its earnings after the bell today. it's been a challenging year for the chipmaker. the stock is trailing far behind its competition. nvidia is leading the way with more than 120% gain. amd, taiwan semi, up 50% or more intel is down 10% since january by comparison. josh lippman is here with what we can expect. >> it's not been a good year for intel bulls. yes, it's enjoyed a recent

bounce here. gaining about 10% in the last month. but it's still down about 20% from its most recent high. this year intel, at least by market cap, losing its crown to nvidia cowen's matt ramsey highlights the central concern, execution intel has stumbled, he says, with chip manufacturing road map and that's led to product delays for example, dropping that bombshell last quarter when it announced delays of the first 7nano chips. rival is already selling the chips. they are taking share and winning over investors is it all over for intel's bob swan patrick moorehead doesn't think so he think's swan's company is in a strong, competitive position, dominating the majority of the markets for pc and server chips, two growing markets. intel, he says, is moving into new hot markets as well. placing bets in areas such as ai and gaming graphics. where it will compete with

rivals like nvidia kelly, back to you >> yep, very much looking forward to this quarter and continuing to watch that battle play out josh, thank you. still ahead, as of last week, more than 20 million people have filed jobless claims since the start pandemic, but consumer balance sheets are painting a rosier picture. what's behind the boost to cash flow and where is that cash going? that's next. as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will... you can rely on the people and the network of at&t...

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new data shows as consumer free cash flow, the money left after paying for food, utilities, taxes and debts, it hit an all-time high this week joining me is michael kantrowitz where should they be to be best advantaged for a strong consumer here >> given that we've had a recovery here without inflation

rearing its ugly head, we can continue to see a lot of the early cyclical stocks continue to outperform. so anything from home builders and the housing sectors, to autos and other consumer durable areas that have done well, we think that will continue as job employment continues to come back >> so some of the names are names we talk about a lot like lennar and lowes and tractor supply who else do you think? >> those are names ranked attractably and there's a huge debate on whether you want to be growth or be in the value space. we think you want to be right in the middle right now that will allow investors to benefit from companies and good fundamentals, but still acknowledge that valuations have become extreme for some of the better companies so beyond there, again, those sectors, household durable, even

travel companies look attractive covid remains an overhanging issue there. i think housing specifically can continue to do really well even a company like home depot fits that mold anything in the specialty retail space does well, looks attractive again, it's all about this idea of consumers having more money after they pay for their credit cards, their leases their rental, their mortgage and energy prices. in addition to food, all of those costs are historically at such low levels. i can't think of a time where we've had a recovery in employment and have seen mortgage rates continue to fall to new lows. it's a really unique back drop and a really good back drop for consumers. >> i'vie inine inseen a lot of f holiday spending this year we know in what a terrible position americans hardest hit by the pandemic are so what

would you say to people about those headlines? >> there's absolutely still a lot of people unemployed, though we continue to see that gradually get better today we saw unemployment claims fall below 800,000, which admittedly is still a high number but it's going the right direction. so we expect to see up side surprise, hopefully d.c. sooner than later will get a stimulus package to accelerate the recovery and give consumers more confidence about spending. we see a lot of up side surprises. >> as you said, that includes retail, includes the sort of housing and construction sectors and all of those aspects of the consumer wallet. michael, thanks so much for joining me i appreciate it. and speaking of strong housing demand, home sales surged to a more than 14 1/2 year high

existing home sales were up 20% year on year to their highest levels since twib2006 poole said it benefited from elevated command to are residence pool products. the stock is up from its 52. week home at an all-time high today. and pent air posted big earnings saying one of its units delivered big strength given the pool district. so it's a pool boom. and a housing one. that does it for "the exchange." that does it for "the exchange." come being ing up on powe♪ mathisen we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. okay.

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