i've been in touch with them they're okay and for what it's worth, they're all on my prayer list. we can't stop everything you just can't stop everything the best we can do is, you know, go after the therapies and observe the guidelines >> larry, i want to thank you for your time today. it is awfully good to see you. we'll talk to you soon in the meantime, folks have a good day. we'll see you back here tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla record new covid cases for three straight days including some in the vice president's office. stimulus hopes remain thin we'll delve into that. in the meantime our world map begins with covid fears. stocks set to open sharply

lower. plus, scp is on track for its worst trading day in 12 years. the german enterprise software giant slashing revenue forecast of ongoing covid lock down for its business of course, the race for a cure drugmaker astrazeneca says its coronavirus vaccine triggers an immune response amongst older and younger adults carl >> david, we'll begin with that sap story, and asking if that is something european or something bigger especially for mega cap tech >> i'm struggling with the reasons for it very dismal outlook. frankly, you could argue this stock is still too high at these prices which is substantially down 20% they're talking about a cloud slow down. can we understand that cloud has acsce accelerated every business

when you upload an sap program in the cloud it does far less for you. there is someone who facilitates going from the private to the public you know something, i got to tell you, carl, this point stinks it does. i had the previous ceo on a co-ceo ms. morgan and do you know three weeks after she was on, she was no longer the co-ceo ever since bill mcdermitt is disconcerting. i find the reasons for their decline and if you think they are truly, truly an arbinger of a decline for cloud, i can challenge that directly. i don't think they stand for anything other than inability to convert and i think their reasons are really specific to sap and not the broader brush that they're painting. 117. it deserves to be down that low. it really, truly does. >> jim, you're answering the question that many people are asking this morning. with your sense of it. which is, is it in some way

indicative of a broader slow down and therefore going to impact other companies or is it specific to sap? you clearly have just indicated you believe it is specific to sap not reflective of something that the market needs to take a greater account of they were citing, what, muted revenue. by the way, the call just began. european company but the call just began 9:00 a.m. and we may get more off of there and with the ceo and we can sort of, in fact, let's take a listen, guys. to what mr. klein had to say in terms of where his focus is despite what, again, is this nearte ne near-term guidance on revenue and on margins >> as ceo of sap i have to be focused on the long-term of this company. i cannot rate the success of our

customers and the significant potential of sap against short-term market. >> so, margin is also going to be under pressure here >> what they're talking about is giant pushouts they're looking at things being pushed out dramatically. 2023 to 2025 remember, they concur for $8 billion in 2014. that happened to be a good company. they keep track of your what business has slowed dramatica y dramatically the spinning off has been very quizzic quizzical. i don't understand what happened with this co-ceo to ceo management turmoil and i don't understand they didn't certainly signal this whatsoever i think they had ample opportunity to signal it and they didn't do it. that's one of the reasons that we're overwhelmed by this this morning. but, to me, this is not just share loss but it is an inability to be able to make a client who moves up the public

cloud give them as much money. so, in many ways, they sewed their seeds to their own destruction. i use the destruction not lightly. this was a truly terrible quarter. but i do think it was intrinsic to them because how many companies on air that said the pandemic has accelerated, digtuization say from three months to two years down from ten years. david, the thesis the cloud combined with the pandemic does not ring true with sap but does ring true with every other including oracle obviously, salesforce. i just don't get it. to me, i'm not saying the losing share because they've kept their core clients i'm saying that when they move them up, it's not as lucrative as other companies when they move them up sap moves up -- >> move them up. explain to people what you mean

by that. >> what happens is you get a situation where you have a company that's on premsis and they move up which makes sense to the public cloud. once they're at the public cloud they can work with hannah which is the analytic system that sap has. but most companies that move the cloud, what do they use? they use snowflake so, snowflake -- >> or other data analytics company and software that they can use, jim which are companies we talk about all the time which goes back to this idea of the acceleration of companies moving to the cloud and then the opportunity that is there for the likes of snowflake and others >> so, carl, what this says is a false tale i came in here and been working on this stupid thing since 3:30. looking at the futures, the future's okay and then sap makes everything fall apart. i thought the market should focus on dunkin' donuts because here's been a red hot stock

doing incredibly well and then gets a bid anyway. i mean, holy cow i mean, if we just focus on dunkin' what does it say about so many stocks doing well. matthew boss this morning talk about vf corp and talking about pvh and doing much better and i see a contour upgrade from sell to buy the whole process of being casual at home another positive thesis. so, im seeing too much good and not enough bad to that sap caller >> adds lulu to the focus list, as well, jim historically we talked about retailers using weather as an excuse for bad execution it almost sounds like you think sap is doing that by a magnitude of x >> yes, perfectly. i don't understand what happened i had ms. morgan co-ceo on on "mad money" and she was very, very strong and gave a terrific

outlook and very positive and talked unbelievably well about the future of sap and three weeks later, david, she was gone she was doing really great stuff and next to stalin and then in the next picture she was white out. they photoshopped this poor person. >> not easy. you have to be careful >> right yeah jim, you mentioned dunkin and we just saw the stock is up sharply to your point. not sure we'll get a deal announcement today "new york times" breaking the story over the weekend most likely tomorrow but soon and it does appear likely. inspire brands are going to be the buyer here remember, they bought sonic and arby's and buffalo wild wings. which used to be one of your favorites. you know, who knows. at some point if they succeed in buying this. to your point, it's a significant premium. talks about 20% premium over a

stock. take a look at what this has done over the last six months. it hit the lows in march and then spring boarded. unexpectedly, i guess, in some ways i think people, again, not as many office workers and stuff like that. jim, they had benefited from the current environment and shifted working patterns but customers had been coming to their stores later in the day perhaps not as early as usual >> now, starbucks reports this week one could argue that starbucks in the united states not as good as dunkin' i have seen a lot of people short dunkin' versus being long starbucks. david perhaps another time that hedge funds have been too cute >> yep what do you mean >> i mean, dunkin' has been on such a roll and we don't really think they're doing as well as starbucks. so, go long, starbucks go short

dunkin'. it has been so strong. now dunkin' got the bid. >> all cash. it's not like you're going to get an opportunity to participate in the upupside of some combination but at some time you're going to get the premium over recent highs. very high one if they, again, get this thing done at 106, 107 level that was discussed in the "new york times" story >> this would be a case, carl. if you really felt that there was no, let's say, there was a slow down in covid this makes so much sense i'm not getting that anyone in the world who thinks there's is a slow down in covid said you should go buy something like dunkin' brands should have their head this is volatile of their charter, so to speak but, wow, maybe this take out of coffee is going to come back maybe, look, we've got these companies that can bring coffee

to your office, again. it is just that there is no office that's what is so confusing about this >> yeah, well, i imagine, jim, you'd agree it's not a story about denominator. the pie is not getting larger, at least at the moment it's more about the top number and that is the share they've stolen from businesses that have gone, that have closed and you know that story too well >> that is really such a great analysis, carl i know one of the reasons why people hang in starbucks a positive peace today about starbucks is that they're expanding where stores are closing. if you don't think there's enough dunkin' donuts you can go in and get really favorable lease agreements because people want a dunkin' donuts wherever they are and what real estate investment trust there is. one of these is the theme that if you're a survivor and this is chipotle if you're a survivor and go to any real estate investment trust and say we want a deal because the real estate

investment trust traffic and dunkin' donuts provides traffic. >> and they are in a good position when you have leverage like that, you may want to push it. and actually use it to your advantage. and perhaps they're in a position to do that. >> do you anything about them, david? >> do i know anything about them >> that's a lot of money that they have. >> you're talking about inspire. atlanta based. >> why did they change their name >> inspire brands is the group of companies they already acquired but aurora capital is the private equity firm behind that >> large and grown druthamaticay du du dunkin' is equal to all those combined if you add it in, one would anticipate at some point you would want to start monetizing and you add it in and talk about the synergies between the different brands and your buying power and who knows what else

and your management and how smart they are and, oh, i can go through a whole list and be here all day and then you take it public, right? >> look at the possibility that, dave and buster's was able to do a bond deal. carl, we had a collapse in retail in this country a collapse in companies like dunkin' brands but the strong are not only surviving but thriving the weak are so weak, they vanished the mom and pop's coffee shops have not been able to sustain themselves and no stimulus to keep them around literally i see a lot of places doing is going to their landlords and saying, here are the keys and where it says, here's the keys i want to own dunkin' brands >> yeah, what a double edge story. the strong get stronger and stimulus remains empty hopes at least if you listen to kudlow

arguing the talks have not gone away, but definitely are slowing down guys, we'll take a break and dig into earning season. a really busy one this week. a lot of initiation and pretty busy here. we're hoping for some news of any kind on vaccines this week akur aat and more as futesre we we're back in a minute turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪

>> we're not going to control the pandemic we are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and mitigation.

>> it is a contagious virus, just like the flu. that is the white house chief of staff mark meadows talking about handling the pandemic gotten permission to resume their phase three trials we're waiting to see if pfizer says anything this week. meg tirrell wraps up all of that this morning meanwhile j&j and astrazeneca getting the go ahead to resume their phase three trial. now j&j saying no evidence caused the event and not giving any information about what the event was or whether the person was on the placebo or vaccine. astrazeneca says the fda concluded it is safe to resume that trial after a patient experienced a neurological event in the study i spoke on friday with the chief

scientific officer who said he hopes there won't be a major delay from this and expects still to see potentially data by the end of this year, early next year astrazeneca saying the same thing about potential data some reporting from the "financial times" there is data in older patients with the astrazeneca vaccine saying essentially it allissted the same response. astrazeneca giving us a statement saying it is encouraging to see immunogenicity responses were similar between older and young adults they say these results further build the body of evidence for the safety and immunogenicity of astrazene astrazeneca. pfizer from its phase three trial and that depends on a lot of things including the rate of

infection in the trial and, guys, how well this vaccine works. so, we'll wait to see. >> meg, two things one, did the administration ever correct the president's, i'd say, boastful comment during the last debate about j&j is the closest to finishing given the fact that they were on hiatus. second, where are we the president was touting the regeneron. where will we get the therapeutic product and what we are having is a decline in death and regeneron could be the key company at this moment >> yeah, its a's going to be limited for the antibody drug. enough for 50,000 people if they got the emergency use authorization now. they expect to bring that up to 300,000 within the next few months give on the number of people being diagnosed daily with

covid-19 both regeneron and eli lily expect to ration these drugs decisions will have to be made about who gets them. both of them are waiting for the fda green light to get that emergency use authorization. meanwhile, i agree with you, jim. it was curious the president noted j&j first when asked about vaccines in the debate and now it's off pause but they are a little bit further behind. >> a kidney list or a heart list for regeneron. will there be a waiting list it can't be arbitrary and capricious, can it >> no, i mean, you'd expect that there will be prioritization in terms of which patients are considered right for this drug you know, one of the interesting things that regeneron did in testing it separate patients on whether or not they generated their own antibodies in response to the virus before they

administer them their antibodies that was the situation with the president and they found people who didn't mount their own immune response responded better to the drug. if we have a capacity to test people that way, making sure the people who benefit the most get the drug >> meg, really quick on pfizer bernstein is out this morning say pfizer says it will be october when we get some numbers and it is the last week. in their words, should we be worried perhaps that the interim may have missed? how worried do you think we should be? >> you know, companies give us months in terms of time frames and we're still in october so, i was a little surprised that bernstein was saying we're already later than they expected we just don't know when pfizer was taking looks at the data to know whether we're at the first look or the second look which does have implications for how well the vaccine works so, we could see this week some data, but we don't know yet.

so, it's going to be very inest thering to watch >> yep one of the other big waiting games that we're playing here. meg, thank you we'll talk to you soon futures as we said are weak and we're going to see how the neinhas iabt peupn ou ni mutes

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fidelity. europe has set a negative tone is to start the week and 1% to 2% and futures on the dowcov. we'll get to the opening bell in five minutes

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let's get to a mad dash. about 2:30 before we get started

with trading here. apple in some ways, jim, is reflective of the broader market given $2 trillion market cap >> one of my favorite movies, david "terminator 2 judgment day. we have facebook, amazon, alphabet and apple and there are number of notes that are very positive about apple. we have the table on the super cycle. i never liked super cycle because that is just what we have super cycle didn't work out. jpmorgan talked about buy. all of these deutsche bank 7.25. it's really not in tim cook's best interest to raise forecasts on 5g. even though we know and, david, you are very good at pointing out the different providers and what they're willing to do, verizon, t-mobile, at&t in order

to get people to buy this phone. but you have to understand that tim cook will give guidance and they will be more disappointed if tim cook doesn't. i don't know why he should quizzical to buy it here >> quizzical to buy it here. and quizzical that people would expect guidance given it's a new introduction of an entirely new phone. >> and also this covid factor. >> yes >> which may cause people to buy their home and i want to go and see the differences. but also just because tim cook is a wise person these people are goating him, i think, into saying, look, we think 5g is great. you know what, do you ever know tim cook to be able to what is about to happen. when they start talking about really positive 5g

we had how many days >> i don't know t was last week. what is it, four days? >> come on, let's just, let's temper things. let's get things down. i think you want it, don't trade it when you have these people set it up, you might want to own it. >> yeah, i think it's thursday night, guys. google, amazon, facebook, twitter, starbucks it always comes down to one day and that's going to be it. this thursday afternoon. there's the opening bell little weak back to 3431 jim, morgan stanley this morning, wilson says we still like our range of 3,100 to 3,550 and it feels like we lived in there forever. >> don't worry about the capital gains tax. i think a lot of people when you watch biden. there is kind of a okay, rich people, you can pay for all the

rest of us and i think a lot of the viewers you'll be paying for the rest of this category. it was good to see him come out and say don't equate this with the stock market you're absolutely right wilson -- i don't know i look at this market and i think are you going to let sap which i regard as being dysfunctional right now determine. remember, sap not run by bill mcdermott. he runs service now, which, again, was boosted and this is the company that is coloring our market. now, you can say, no, it's no stimulus do you, who thinks there's going to be stimulus at this point other than reporters >> yeah. i don't know i don't know of anybody who really thinks. even larry kudlow earlier was sort of becoming a little less optimistic on the stimulus when was he on with us, carl

he was optimistic last week. >> it's hard to pin him down, right? jim has been pretty stubbornly negative on the prospect of preelection fiscal stimulus. but starts out today saying let's talk about post-election stimulus historically lame ducks don't get a lot done, a lot of members are discouraged or defeated. they don't come back to d.c then you're starting to uctaabouctatalk about a january, february. >> stick with the idea that travel is getting better and stick with the idea and there are notes about housing that housing remains strong given how low rates are. when you get covid like this you're suddenly in that weird area, carl, where people say, you know what, i thought people are coming back. they're not coming back. otis which reported a very good quarter which stands to say office construction, which is pretty strong, is not up very light volume. i think it should be up because

substantially better than expected and then people who say, carl, this new wave of covid just makes it more likely that people will not go to the office i think that does create the gloom. gloom is pretty palpable because of covid >> hard to imagine anybody putting up a new tower in new york city any time soon. an awful lot of empty square footage when it comes to office space and a lot of metropolitan areas. although others that will be benefiting that we talk about, as well. it moves somewhere >> i think, i thought -- there was a false tell last week we saw the banks go up and i thought, wait a second maybe people are thinking there is going to be more construction i think banks were really going up because rates were going up and that trade could easily reverse. >> i mean, china, they're still putting a lot of stuff up, jim >> i spoke with them this morning. china is spectacular not losing any share and they also got the new thing that i

really like. this is -- when you get iot, okay, internet of things you're in the situation where otis says you can get in the elevators and they do it at foxwood and you can say, take me to the eighth floor and it understands that why is that so important because there is a belief, a stubborn belief in this country that when you touch a pin card, when you put in your code and when you touch an elevator floor that that's really covid ground zero as opposed to my coughing in your face which is covid >> much more about airborne than surfaces >> surfaces remain what people think are the most dangerous >> really? >> yeah. i think when you look at what is happening at italy and spain, carl they are doing curfews because they were back to their old ways i mean, going to bars. >> yeah. france did 52,000 cases

yesterday. the health minister there said they see it going to 100,000 soon i don't know if you saw morgan stanley they are arguing baseline 130,000 here by year end, which would, i mean, that would be a dark winter no matter whether you believe it or not and a lot of projections that people don't believe you would not want to see a world where we're doing 103,000 cases a day. >> i don't know what that will mean for colleges. i think the colleges are very torn because there are a lot of people who are testing positive but they feel okay those could be walking time bombs for those who come home for thanksgiving but there's been a lot of lockdowns. if you check the colleges. there was a "new york times" college list and the last week was just horrendous for almost every college and i think a laulot of colleges are facing the notion, what do we do? how do we send these people home and quarantine these people and

i think it's a national emergency. >> really. i don't know if i agree with that i don't know what numbers you're looking at because plenty of colleges doing fairly well and the idea that you want to keep the students there as opposed to let them back in some fashion. to your point, a lot of universities and schools are going to be sending people home for thanksgiving and saying don't come back and conduct finals, for example, remotely and then not begin again until late in january or even early february go without a spring break. but, jim, it's not uniform >> one of the promises it we don't have any sort of system in this country for what to do with colleges we've got just some craziness where the colleges don't know what to do >> they have all undertaken it on their own many are doing quite well and others not quite as well >> it depends on how many you test carl, do you know when the nfl went to seven day testing and dramatic reduction in covid. seven-day testing. they are able to do seven-day testing. try to get seven-day testing for

the regular person who is not in the nfl. i have not been able to do that. >> we are doing a million test in this country. >> there are 330 million people. >> a lot more than we were doing and it does enable you to understand where things are happening. >> i think you should go to the harvard doctor, one of the best follows on twitter and he has a piece today, yesterday about universities and coronavirus and an update from ivy tower. since talking about the university of michigan an immediate stay at home order >> that was last week, two weeks. >> they're studying what is happening. look, we're on the same page on this what we're saying is disorganization, disarray at colleges some good, some not so good. >> editorial yesterday saying masks would help a lot >> dr. fauci said the same thing. mask mandate and a person in the white house not in favor of that >> you heard mark meadows talk

and as quickly as possible, carl, to get here. guys, did want to mention a few other things news wise and financial company we talked about a number of times not coming here, not coming to an exchange near you. hong kong and shanghai but going to be the largest initial public offering of all time we have a lot of details on it of course this falls into the digital, financial industry if you want to call it that for lack of a better term. payments and things of that. of course, this has been going on in china for a decade now this was once a part of alibaba. they do own 33%. there is a direct, you can take a look at alibaba shares as the continued increase has gone on in terms of what this company would be worth and they're valuing around $330 billion, $313 billion, excuse me. $313 billion and you want some? talk to joe like he did on

alibaba. running allegations very carefully in terms of making sure they know exactly who their shareholder base is. a good amount in china, but also going to be distributing this around the world unclear percentages wise perhaps 50/50 and tilting more towards china and more domestic and less international but still plenty given how much stock they are selling, jim some talk about them being added to the designated entities list. that doesn't appear to be likely at this point from what i'm hearing. but i know you wouldn't want them to come here. you were against that. >> we are just at a moment where this would be the wrong signal in terms of, i think, they would be shut down if they try to apply here i think ant is very smart to avoid us, give on the fact that this is one of those right now where we're getting a lot of mixed feelings from both candidates, david.

both candidates have expressed great displeasure with china on very different issues. it's trade when it comes to president trump. and it's freedom and civil rights when it comes to biden. neither one of them is identified with what i would regard as being a constructive path, if you want china relations to go back to the way they were under president obama. >> agreed. >> carl, interesting story in "wall street journal" that looked closely at the manufacturing sector in this country and whether it has benefitted from the tariffs that remain or are significant in place with china 2018 was decent but overall not really much movement in terms of manufacturing jobs >> yeah. now, of course, you have these threats of sanctions against boeing and rathian and lockheed in terms of u.s. arm sales to taiwan of $2 billion another 9 to one town open let's get to bob pisani. >> that's right. declining to advancing stocks and, of course, the cyclical

sectors the ones that are most exposed to reopening are the weakest. let's look at theect isse sectoe do every banks, which as jim noted had a nice move up over the last couple weeks or last week and down today industrials weak techs are sort of hugging what the s&p is doing right now and more defensive sectors like consumer staples are down but not nearly as much as you might expect the reopening stocks travel, leisure and some of the real estate investment trusts like simon property group are on the weak side that's no surprise that always happens on these want to focus on the european stock because we're seeing much of europe down about 2%. you heard a lot about this sap story and what everybody is trying to figure out as jim was noting how specific and how stock specific is this but if there is a fresh wave of lockdowns as the company has been saying, is that a much broader story? so that would not be a company-specific story this matters a lot for us

because earnings in the fourth quarter have been improving. i know we're focused on the third quarter and look at the s&p 500 for the third quarter. we were expecting the fourth quarter to be down 13.6 and today down 12.4. folks, that's improving and the reason that is happening is the companies reporting the third quarter numbers had been really good 20% above what people normally expect and the analysts expecting and they're raising the fourth quarter numbers this story in jeopardy if the lockdown and the implications of the s&p story have broader implications so, you see why the market is generally concerned because things have been going better and the bottom line is this reminds us the earnings improving story and reopening story is hostage and to a certain extent let me show you quick stats on the election davis has looked at this going back 120 years the market goes up no matter who is in office democrats or republicans in the white house.

there are several reasons for that but more important is to ask what happens if both the white house and the congress is under the control of one party then it gets a little more interesting, but, still, the market tends to go up. it does best when republicans are in the white house and the congress again, this goes back to 1900. average yearly gains in that situation 7% when the democrats are in the white house and the congress the average gains are 3% that's a difference, but still up when democrats are in the white house and republicans in the congress, the market still goes up although some differences why is that? people ask me all the time and a lot of conclusions of people who have looked at this and widely studied and the simple answer seems to be is the president is not an influential on the economy as everybody thinks. there are a lot of factors who drive stock returns other than who is in the white house. the u.s. is a capitalist

society. mostly in control of private hands that make private decisions. we also have a functioning court system where contract disputes between parties between corporations and individuals can be resolved in a relatively straight forward manner. that might seem obvious to everybody but that's really critical on why the united states has been a successful economy and, indeed, a successful country a capitalist country and a functioning court system as we're debating all of this about the elections and the future of the economy, let's tend to remember that the market goes up because of the nature of the united states economy in general. guys, back to you. >> thank you, bob pisani a busy week for central banks around the globe and a first look at q3 gdp let's get to rick santelli >> q3 gdp is going to be a biggy. see if we completely neutralize the number or not is critical

and many will say it's an older number but it gives us a lot more information as to how we're going into the most important quarter of all, the fourth quarter which can really make up a big difference to get us closer to pre-covid numbers. three or five sessions and look at the two day of tens you can see what i'm talking about and open it up to a week ago friday when it started with retail sales and the pattern has broken we're completely out of sync right now with what is going on with the german bund the only thing i can say about that chart is that we're starting to correlate more towards the upside but the momentum to the upside yields is lost in the u.s. and we are seeing some of the covid scare seems to be abating even though the numbers aren't abating when it comes to what is moving the euro if we continue to look at what is going on in the foreign exchange side, let's look at that euro from mid june. and you can see that june and july were very good for the euro

currency very bad for the dollar. but if you really step back what you see from may 2018 we may have lost that volatility and the last couple months we flattened out but for all practical purposes we flattened out where they showed strength 28 months ago. jim, carl and david, back to you. >> thanks, rick santelli. almost up at 30 and all sectors are lower. black rock, by the way, just cut treasuries to underweight on what they're calling more stimulus expectations on the likely democratic government dow is down 416. ♪ ♪

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take a look at some of the airlines here down 3%, 1% to 4%, i guess. the number of daily passengers have been lower than the weak earlier figure for seven straight days now, according to the spoke. the second longest streak since the pandemic

in the meantime, american is planning customer tours of the max, as well as calls with its pilots in the coming weeks in an effort to boost the public's confidence in the jet's safety american has already said it will fly as early as december, jim. that miami/new york route. but it's interesting cas >> it is not real will i a story of restrictions but a story of consumer and safety in air travel >> this is the safest place to be if you are going to be inside versus any building. the number of covid cases on airlines very small. of course everybody wears a mask on a plane it is mask or lockdown you don't want lockdown. that would be very bad for the economy. i do think we have to talk boeing and china if you are helping taiwan and on

the restricted list of sort. and boeing has been helping taiwan taiwan is far more important than we make it. you know, taiwan semiconductors is the single most important when it comes to the taiwan semiconductor there. >> no. it is not. it would imply it is not in the united states. >> they are still trying to outdo each other as if america has decided they are a bad apple. >> i don't view that having to do with the stock market but

just with geopolitical problems. >> how do we know where jaw boning has stopped and where this begins. >> if you are more of a trade hawk and less of an actual war hawk i don't think anybody else wants war. there is cold war. there is cold warriors and the trump administration and then there are people who would try to get it together in a tpp way. they might make it in a way that things are more effective without branding america as some sort of bad actor. >> tpp many look back on as a lost opportunity but if you look back at if hillary clinton had won if it would have happened either going back to the time when we were talking about tpp and the

effective way to isolate china unclear if we'll ever see that >> guys, we are back below 28 k on the dow and below the 50 day since the first of the month don't go away.

pretty negative on the s&p and on the ndx, including a lot of names they'll report. ebay, starbucks, act vision blizzard "sqwawk on the street" continues in a moment.

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let's get to jim >> twitter reports why is this important? the amazing numbers we saw from pintrest and snap. snap up 164. twitter only up 157. twitter only reporting an unbelievably good number the stock is down. might be an opportunity. >> i think wednesday is a senate hearing on the section with the ceos >> in the end, people might start freaking out i've got one of the most exciting stories for youthful

people plug power andy marsh is exciting the robyn hood crowd i understand there on squawk tomorrow so plug may bethe way to go. >> brace yourself. we'll see you tonight. mad money, 6:00 p.m. eastern time good monday morning. welcome to "sqwawk on the street." market lower on some covid concerns, watching earnings and stimulus talks new home sales are outlets get to santelli. >> we are expecting another number potentially over 1 million. 900,000 is the new read. we know single family has been on fire.

the million, 1,11,000 now moves up over a million units. a bet of a set back down 3.5%. to really zero in on what's driving this particular report, let's head east to diana >> rick, this is a disappointment we were not expecting something under 1 million. i'm looking here at prices and inventory. we've seen the supply of homes drop dramatically. down 32% from a year ago this is because builders are having so much trouble keeping up with demand we are now at a 3.6 supply that is slightly up from the 3.4 month supply in existing homes, we have the

short supply they need more labor in the field. we saw prices gain 3.5% to the mean yan price of $326,800 builders have to raise prices because they are seeing a rise intheir costs. seeing those prices go up to very high prices record high prices for existing homes. this is based on signed contracts, not closings. this is people out shopping when interest rates are very low. we are getting into that seasonal slow down the question is would we see any season at. we are seeing in build back. the prices and the supply out there. so a disappointment. still up from a year ago considerably >> thank you markets are moving lower this morning amid record covid cases

and a fading hope for a stimulus we have more on what's going on. starting with covid, we've had some time to study days like this with rising case counts and the market response. anything we can look at in terms of past performance to indicate where we may be headed >> if you look at the basket of stocks that are the go out and play sector. that is all day significantly. the hotels and travel related. retail as well we can say it tends to be, unless the bond market backslides in terms of yield and really hunker down for a sharp down shifting of economic growth i'm not sure you can extrapolate any action the bonds have been interesting. treasury yield terms and yielding the idea that it is a

cyclical strength. they have done well in this week it has been in fits and starts and we do look out june where we saw that turn in hand. we saw the yields go up and then two or three months in tech stocks taking the lead all of those things in the context really getting into a neutral crouch i think we were leaning very bullish. we've had about 10 days of ringing the enthusiasm of the stimulus out of investors at this point to the degree where i don't think it is in the market and more about what's to come. a bigger fiscal push down the road in the next few months but not the next few days. >> that's interesting. of course markets like control you had meadows saying we are not going to control the pandemic how do you think the market responds to that especially in

the back drop of these rising case counts and records? >> it is raising its guard a little bit in terms of what is happening on the fourth quarter growth the main thing there working against that is the risk of vaccine breakthrough and they are you ptherapeutics don't think it is necessarily an alarmist response but isn't a surprise everyone is looking at the same curve and expecting the case counts to go up. it is about the consumer business reactions that will be more key >> not sure how much we are seeing the real reaction the s&p numbers. is that is getting crushed over the last hour. it really is an s&p specific

issue. that said when you see a company that size and important, it can have a spillover affect. >> when you look at oracle down this morning it falls on ibm and with enterprise tech spending no doubt that particular segment will have more questions asked of it. you are right, it is not as if we have decided everybody is in the same boat and nasdaq is out responding not going too deep no doubt the corporate spending will be sorted out the next year it has been mostly about consumer tech spending and the digital platforms that have kind of rescued the markets and kept the market going not as many about the enterprise >> you mentioned that the thought of the stimulus is priced into the market and people see it more as a 2021

event. not really even the fourth quarter at this point. if we do see a continued divided government and the gop sees the white house and the government as it pertains to stimulus in 2021, do you think >> i think that will roll back a little bit of the hopes you'll get with a heavy gust of spending in the early part of the year tough to do about the markets are leaning back in that direction. indicating where the money is betting in that regard it has moved closer to the idea that you have an 5:0 celebration of hope coming keep in mind the level of bond moves here

it is still pretty low >> indeed, we'll watch that closely as well. thanks >> in the meantime, take a look at shares of hasbro today. joining us exclusively this morning is the ceo of hasbro >> nice to see you >> you got double digit gains in the u.s. and uk. you say supply is beginning to catch up with demand is the stock reaction today more about a tough take, do you think? >> we are looking at a business where consumer demand is quite strong our toy game and digital business has grown we have a great gaming business led by a brand that has been doubling in size over the last five years we have a unique position there and in entertainment our production entity e 1 is

back in production we have 25 now back and restarted. in the second quarter, that was a real challenge we believe we can grow a good holiday against the proforma numbers even better for 2021 >> it does sound like of the challenges you mention, life action might be your stickiest now. at a full range. at this point, do you see production getting easier will will the season elongate the challenge? >> no. we are seeing we are back in production we are using the protocols together with buyers of content participating with us to ensure we are doing all the right

protocol to keep our cast and crew safe. getting told this year we believe increasingly we'll be able to move forward also increasingly, we'll be able to proceed all of the focus we have going on in great entertainment and film >> do you see things evolving in terms of foot traffic. obviously like so many others.

e commerce has grown dramatically is that going to continue? >> that e con business is back up again up 50% we think we exit this year at around a third of our business in e con we benefit from the big retailers like omni, target and online like amazon represent the top three customers. we have seen some specialty retailers focused on licensed product or back to school product that had some challenges and has impacted a few of our brands, particularly in preschool. as we get through the next period, those will come back online it will take some time the big retailers, omni channel retailers. in u.s. and canada, very strong

with franchise brands. >> as you you are seeing tighter restrictions around the world now as it pertains to covid and up tick in cases especially in europe how has your supply been impacted as you project a very strong fourth quarter, do you have the supply chain capabilities to help support that brand? >> it is a great question. we have all third-party factories. our team did an amazing job working with a third-party factory in ireland they are in a six-week lockdown. they have been deemed an essential factory. they have been great to be back to work. the same thing in massachusetts in a gaming factory. it has taken a lot of effort from our team. it has been a change in our

warehouse where we are using flex warehouse space and able to move directly to omni channel and online retailers our supply is running. we are looking at places like india where there has been some restrictions and then opening of the market and increasingly looking outside of china especially for brands like nerf and innovations. we are seeing it in market and nerf innovations we are seeing more of the demand >> how many of your people are you bringing back to the office, if any it doesn't look like an office but you never know are you happy with the productivity or looking to when you can have people back >> we have been focused with gee ogify. we have a really good view

our teams are back in offices in europe less so and in european less in the u.s., we have a big gaming infrastructure outside of seattle and los angeles for production and then headquartered in rhode island. very few people are actually going into the office. seeing great productivity online more developmental work on hasbro ip because everybody is available online together. clearly, we want to get everybody back into offices as soon as it is safe >> speaking of being online, one of the takes i saw was the strength of toys and games is coming in part from parents trying to find alternatives to

screen time for their kids who we know are overloading on screen time. where do you think we are looking at things to draw kids away from an ipad or consumer screen >> i really think it is fluidity not so much the kids that can be crazy on their own it is the family games business. adult game business is up. online magic arena business is doing really well. people are looking for ways to play in game they are increasingly watching

more of our content. we are seeing great engagement for peppa pig and pj masks and across platforms while people are working hard to get educated want to spend time in free time connecting with one another, playing zoom games with one another. it is more of an all-in strategy when we see a medium, it doesn't cut down on the others but we see the brand across we just launched war for cyber time, which is one of the top shows on the platform and driving engagement from fans and families with lines from comic books. if people love a brand, they want to travel with that brand >> what you described is a

theory that's been around for a very long time and is still true >> from fedex and ups that it would be a capacity constraint telling customers be prepared, you may not get what you want. do you think that is a liability for the holiday? >> catching up on the third quarter. we are sitting here today a third of the way through the holiday. the holiday has been extended through the business we started with prime days and omni channel events through a few days ago i think retailers given that they don't want to see numbers on a given day or online for a given black friday benefits us

giving us opportunity to launch nerf for now and launching around star wars and the new mandalorian series i can't guarantee we'll have everything in stock because demand has been so strong. we are working very diligently to get those to our retail partners through our distribution channel >> we can't wait to see the new baby yoda stuff. thanks for coming on good to see you. >> as we head to break, it is time to make the doughnuts perhaps, discussing sale to inspire brands owner of arby's and buffalo wild wings. that stock up 16%. more oa teiade aern pontl alft the break.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

dunkin brands talking about a deal with inspired brands which already owns arby's buffalo wild wings and sonic this appears to be something we could be getting a deal on

fairly soon. does it make sense to you? >> yeah, that's right. dunkin con firfirming it has he preliminary talks with inspired brands neither side will comment. inspired brands did decline to comment. but the acquisition was reported by the "new york times," which says the deal could go private today valued at $106.50 a share valued at $8.8 billion the portfolio includes arby's, sonic, jimmy john's and buffalo wild wings dunkin would be the first coffee addition dunkin has seen business

struggle as things like routines for morning coffee have been disrupted but they've rebounded to midsingle digit numbers consumers are now looking to treat themselves to drinks that are harder to make at home and coming in at different times of day to make that happen. the acquisition at the suggested price would be the highest multiple for this time of business 10.5 times the 2020 ebita. declining to respond on the potential deal back to you. >> that's a remarkable multiple, as you mention anything private equity firms can do with restaurants that they can't do in the public markets. do you tend to see more growth when they are private?

additional debt? they have about $3 billion of debt on the balance sheet. what do you notice when companies in the restaurant space are taken private? >> two things. inspired brands has acquired many many of them struggling. you can make changes quickly being owned by inspired brands and not having to answer to sha shareholders they are trying to push west with about 17,000 locations across the country much of them outside of the northeast. if this does go through, faster growth and quicker changes maybe by that time, people will resume their morning coffee

habits thanks for staying on top of this one the etf spotlight, looking at skyy. up almost 35% this year currently trading down more than 1% reporting disappointing results saying covid could impact demand well into 2021 you can see shares of s&p down 22.5% this morning "sqwawk on the street" will be right back

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welcome back, i'm sue herera with your cnbc update. over 60 million people have already voted with the highest turnout. democrats continue to outnumber republicans that support the party registration of those who have voted however, republicans have been narrowing that gap in california, electricity has been turned off to millions of customers gusts of winds around san francisco bay. this is the fifth and largest planned outing this year in france, a warning of the average numberof coronavirus cases could be twice as high as

official figures it comes from the head of the scientific council that advises on the pandemic. also saying france's second wave will most likely be bigger than the first. that is not good news but that is the news update for this hour i'll send it to you leslie >> not good at all partially what is driving markets lore all three major indices in the red. wti also down about 3% with demand and supply concerns in focus. here to break it all down, head of equity strategy and dave rosenberg. the founder there. they join us now barry, let's start with you. as we look at what's going on with stimulus and covid, those are two key drivers over the last few months.

the trends haven't really changed. is the market just now realizing what is going on >> a lot of the things we've been looking at are going on now. the fourth quarter correction at about 10%. you've got the election, the outlook for fiscal policy. a stronger dollar and lower inflation is more likely and lower oil prices i'm concerned about the 2021 lower growth and the virus has sparked a seasonal reprize we thought it would come back in the upper north earth states sometime in the late fall, early winter just like it spiked in the south late spring early summer >> dave, are you also concerned about the 2020 earnings growth

that's supposed to be the time we get a vaccine and see some sort of normal as it relates to those levels do we have david let me ask you barry, based on what we've heard and we are making some progress everyone says once we see a vaccine and see a poor provision of the population get that vaccine, that we could resume daily life as we did in 2019 is that not your projection for 2021 >> as you remember in the late 70s, there was a little bit of his tarria on the swine flu. everyone was encouraged to get a vaccine. there was a big media event where president ford got the vaccine in the oval office

only about 25% got the vaccine that is not something to hang your hat on for 2021 we are going to have a cold flu and covid season for years to come it is just going to be a seasonal virus we'll slowly inoculate ourselves to it. >> yep, that is sort of increase willingly the model. i wonder where your head is in generation of new cases and impact of mobil. s&p is the story of the morning. do we really expect lockdowns to be the shadow of where they were in the spring when we knew a lot less >> people have no more patience for new lockdowns. just social distancing practices are adequate you'll see a lot of the personal services jobs are about 15% of jobs that involve less than one yard apart for two people. those are in trouble

they'll stay in trouble for some time two years, maybe three that is too long for restaurants and personal businesses to survive. we'll need stimulus here the election outcome is key to this, i do believe >> what are the election outcomes that 0 ideal and less than ideal the republican senate favors growth stocks. volatility on election night but some stimulus delays in the senate the 2022 crop are not anxious to sign on to large spending. the 10-year yield would fall that's our expectation the real yield would favor expansion and growth stocks. on the other hand, biden and

democratic senate, you'll see more value trump and republicans would be growth and this would be more value for the democratic senate. the dollar would probably rise the 10-year yield would probably stephen. you would see a market that had less upside but it would rearrange the deck chairs inside the market more towards value. >> with those deck chairs as they are, what kind of recommendation do you have for investors to mitigate their risk and protect their down side? >> we're -- like everyone, we are waiting on pins and needles for the election but i do believe president trump's chances are a little higher than some of the polls predict. the more likely outcome is a divided government if that's the case, then some delays -- eggs have to break before the senate spends money

we'll see delays on senate stimulus and that will cause volatility in the election with a divided outcome with a democratic senate and republican president. we do believe there is down side versus upside. we'll favor more of a cautious defensive going into the election with things like health care, staples and utilities in the event of president trump winning, so that's where we are. >> anything out there on the macro level that could present an upside of surprise in your opinion. when you think about debt. it is a case of buy now, pay later. we know debt generates progressively more gdp when you buy in front of i flags with the fed in a place that's a

bad move we are going to get the immediate benefits it is like the candy now, the diabetes later we'll get the immediate benefits of spending but long term will erode for the stock market do not expect more of a return annualized for 2030 is what our models say >> bary, thank you from stifel we appreciate it >> thank you meantime, eight days until the election, we are looking at some of the key voter issues around the country in pennsylvania, all about jobs where we find brian sullivan this morning hi, brian. >> certainly is. voters everywhere in america are passionate about what they are passionate about

here eerie, pennsylvania. the issue and maybe the only issue is jobs. the question is will donald trump's pro america which flipped thousands of blue color, blue voters over to him. will that resonate or will biden get them back? all about places like this this is coal and erie coke this plant opened in 1833. last december, the people came work, they shut down and said no more jobs. years of pollution, they shut it off. also cheap chinese manufacturing of steel those rocks go to become steele.

big polluter here. if you are needing a job, where do you go from here. it comes down to places like erie coke. the only jobs here are like ants tearing apart the factory to sell as scrap metal. erie county won by trump by 2% obama won by 17% in 2012 the question is which candidate can speak to that person there are no new manufacturing jobs for these workers to go to. the question is which candidate speaks to them the most. china is a huge issue. turned on local news a trump add that ended with joe biden shaking hands with chinese

president xi jinping basically tying biden to china because people here think china, manufacturing, loss of jobs one of the key issues coming up in eight days. >> brian, as somebody who follows the industry look waufed steel and the decline of coal and the generation of electricity. >> you are right the market has done that to coal coal is on its way out but i'll say china is making more new coal companies thab any other place in the world paurt of the energy story as well when you talk about this type of rock, you are making steel what does that matter? what is that used in

pipelines. the number two producer of natural gas in the united states we talk about reduction of natural gas, reduction of fraking, less demand for pipelines. less demand for steel, less demands for this, which means literally falling apart. trains just sitting on the ground over here i wish i could show you. our movements are limited. natural gas matters a whoet lot to the state of pennsylvania, pennsylvania matters a whole lot in that race to 270. >> focusing on biden's comment during the debate which he's walked back a bit. brian sullivan great picture there. cruise lines falling there as we watch rising coronavirus

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it is a big week for tech earnings they have on edge. find out which more "sqwawk on the street" coming up. ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ welcome back to "sqwawk on the street." i'm frank holland. tough start to the markets today with every sector of the s&p trading lower. energy, one of only two sectors. names like apache, marathon oil and eog are down apa consider everyone had everyone e down more than 6% as a rise in covid cases race

concerns oil market under pressure today. i'll send it back to carl. thank you. watch palantir today jeffery says the platform is highly unique. goldman doesexpect that it trade on a discount as some companies don't need to slice and dice that data in a sow f t sophisticated way. back in a minute

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♪ i know you're waiting on the other side ♪ ♪ i'm like you on-demand glucose monitoring. because they're always on. another life-changing technology from abbott. so you don't wait for life. you live it. the u.s. is posting record high case growth on a seven day average. it's a good morning to look at high frequent data on the road to recovery. for that we turn to steve liesman. we'll look at high frequency data in three areas. school openings, jobs, and the covid-19 cases talk about how they're all related. and part of the difficulty in forecasting the stock market and in forecasting the outlook for the economy. take a look at our three gauge that's we have here. first, the burbio school index,

36%. that's a new high for the series during the pandemic of the percentage of students that are in class that's come up very sharply from the gauge -- from the number we had of 19% in september. moving over to the ukg formally time punches, that's a middle number 0.7% how are the two interrelated they're related by the fact that 1.1 more women than men have dropped out of the workforce or unemployed and the extent to which schools are open, that plays a part in the availability of women and, of course, some men to the workforce. but more women than men. and then the new covid-19 cases, carl mentioned, 69,000. that is at or near an all time record take a look at the map of the reopenings and if we're going to first show you september map. watch south florida. watch south texas. watch mississippi and alabama as we move to october in the next thing, the current map and you can see those the darker ones, that's a transition to more in person learning. there is that transition

you can see they darkened up in all those areas. not so much in the northeast though new york and some of these schools are doing a little better take a look now at the ukg time shift. what you see is that it's done a pretty good job of tracking job growth there in millions on the right side and the percentage of job growth on the left. 0.7% might be a bit better than we have the 660,000 job growth. and one more thing now is the unfortunate chart of the covid-19 cases throughout the country and the red is greater than 100,000 cases more and more of the country getting in that -- getting into that unfortunate grouping right there. what you see is that what we wonder about now leslie is whether or not this increase in the covid-19 cases means that increase in either lockdowns or shutdowns or reductions in employment in those areas. we'll have to watch and see. the schools reopening good the covid-19 cases, well, that might work against them, leslie. >> that's a really good question

one i think a lot of investors are grappling with today in the market thank you, steve and turning back to that market action. you can see the dow now down nearly 600 points. down more than 2%. nasdaq lower by 1% s&p 500 down by 1.6% let's get to bob pisani on what's going on here bob? >> leslie, remember, q-4 numbers have been getting better q-3 numbers were improving as well this is all predicated on more stimulus and on the reopening going well and neither of those are going very well. so the market is not acting irrationally here given that those are the two big concerns take a look at what we got there is the s&p 500 here. we moved down in the middle of the day. various combinations of issues including sap announcement, ways on the market. if you look at sectors, the cyclicals are weakest. 7-1 declining stocks.

more defensive oriented sectors like consumer staples still down but not quite as much. the travel and leisure sector, anything associated with the reopening. all of the cruise lines. most of the re tichlits that we earlier. there with are other reopening aspects. a lot of the restaurants on the weak side. some of the retailers like under under # armour and ross stores and american express oil is down 2% to 3% most of the day. no surprise on the prospect of the reopening not going so well. less driving there you see all the oil stocks also on the down side finally, bank has a great run last week as yields started to rise we also saw hope there that's not happening today that's moving down so if you look at the s&p 500 guys, we topped out on october

12th this has been a trend going foreign a while here just the day before earnings started, 3549. now back to 3409 what is happening today specifically is the fourth quarter earnings concept that it's getting better is really under threat right now they have to move it down. that's why sap had such an impact on the market that may not be a company specific story if it, is then the estimates as they've been coming up being raised for the fourth quarter, they're into high. they'll have to come down. thats what the market is trying to figure out. we're hostage to that covid-19 story. that's hard to interpret for the next severalweeks and months guys, back to you. >> all right bob, thanks. we'll talk to you in a little bit. coming up on "squawk alley," facebook is preparing for possible election unrest we're going to talk about what the company is doing to stop the spread of misinformation in the meantime, dow is down 2%. s&p 500 is trying to hold 3400 where it is not traded below since october 7th. back in a mitenu

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good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla decline of more than 2% on the nasdaq s&p 500 has not been below 3400 in a few weeks we're hanging on by a thread here of we get set for a long list of big earnings including that thursday night crush of a big cap tech >> yeah. that's right, carl big week ahead for big tech. you have apple, microsoft, amazon, others all reporting this week. plus, the ceos