>> and the 30-year as well did dip back below, so i do think you have to keep an eye to see if that's a trend. as of now, it still seems of the steepening trade, and it's been okay about suggesting thing. we are out of time thanks for watching "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. tonight's trading lineup here, we are charting the sell-off the the three most troubling the charts mike wellsen, we'll get his take. and later we're gearing up for the tech titans, how our traders are positioned the s&p dropping more than 1.8%, with its worst day in more than a month

all 11 s&p sectors were negative today. four big factors weighing on the market, a new record for coronavirus cases, no stimulus we are kicking off the busiest week of earnings, and the election just eight days away. should investors pare their risk right now? still, we'll start with you. >> if you look at the trend since mid july, we had an up ten, down ten, up ten, now we've pulled back about 5% this is a range around urn certainly. the companies that will report later this week with the big ice on thursday, you name it, that's coming out in terms of where the megacap market tech has been eu putting in additional q curves these are headline-grabbing dynamics that the market will

feel the weight of we've been digesting the stimulus talks for weeks, if not a couple months. i think the market is range-bound. i think traders don't feel like they have to put capital to work before the elections, but i think largely the same backdrop is there we're going to talk about the ten-year bond and bond yields higher i think those trends stay intact, and i think the defensiveness will still be a place where the market is comfortable. >> in this market backdrop, guy, do you stick with the tech trade, which seemed to be the defensive trade for so long? >> it's clearly been the winner, but the market scared me for a long -- the market has terrified me for a long time i'll put it out there. this is effectively the same level the all-time high babb february 16th or 17th, or thereabouts. this is why i continue to be

concerned. back then the vix was 14 the vix closed at 32 1/2 today, topped out at 33.60 is where we closed back on september 3rd those are all very concerning things i think this is your pivot point. i think the name that tim just talked about better say some really good things on thursday, specifically apple, because the question you ask yourselves, did they use all arrows in their quiver last quarter when they announced a great quarter. that is the one i'm focused on this week. >> they had that, the launch of the 12, a lot of the social stocks pulling forward potentially gains to be made when snap reported given all of these wild cards in the market right now, we are also starting off earnings season with a particular setup,

which may not be conducive to more gains here. you mean all five biggest companies reporting on the same day or the same 48 hours >> yeah. >> i mean, i don't know what to make of that, except for i guess it adds volatility to me each story is somewhat different. apple, i think, actually the story will be about commentary going forward. i don't know that it's so much about this quarter so when we saw the snap numbers, it was huge, so i'm still long that, both of those, facebook and alphabet i like the story i think it's impact. microsoft is a little stretched, but they've been doing a great job. you compare that with s.a.p., i know we'll talk about that later, but microsoft executing over and over again, s.a.p. not as much. i'm long i always have protection i sold some today with the vix,

as guy mentioned, spiking up that feels scary to sell puts when the vix is spiking, but that's why you own them. then i bought some ultimata, it peaked at 242, and todayic bake it at 218, 219 so it's scary to buy, when blood is on the streets, even if the blood is your own. offices bleeding and buys a little. >> very visual what is your incentive at this point to give guidance for the current quarter, let alone the following years, the uncertainties of the spike in covid cases, et cetera >> i think it's a really important point. the sort of visibility that these companies have because of their modes, because of their

region just in general, it's going to be far better than the rest of the market, especially more cyclical sort of companies. i think you'll see the guidance and confidence out of these companies that have basically let them flex all this year, winning the pandemic for all intents and purposes, and the stocks certainly have. i don't think you'll see massive disappointments out of microsoft like saw out of s.a.p., but tim just mentioned the 10% up, 10% down, i think it's important to remember that 10% sideline from the september 2nd high took about three weeks to work itself out. here we are down about 5%. all of the uncertainty around the stimulus, around the election, we are going to get that resolution in about a week. can investors feel good and there's an uncontested result, no matter the result, i think the market gets back to it that's not me pounding the table

by any means, but there's a lot that could go wrong. the presupposition of this market and everything that's going on, that the market wasn't coming back that would somehow halt the economic recovery is just downright silly when we hear the term complacent or overly positive sentiment, that's why you get period right now, because we forget we're not in control of any of this. >> dan brought up the point about an uncontested election. the election may not even be called for days after the election, depending on the ballot counts. there are about half a dozen states that don't count mail-in ballots until election day, tim. do you think the markets have priced in the possibility that come the day after election, wednesday, thursday, we don't have a clear winner yet? what does volatility look like

in that case >> well, i think volatility today is giving you -- it's foreshadowing in some ways, as maybe this is a harbinger for some sense of where that uncertainty could persist. i think we will get clarity as it leads to the competition of the senate, which i think is also very important for the markets. we've made a lot of arguments about what the market might actually do with essential a standoff between, you know, the white house and the senate, at least on balance of power, and that actually be positive. but no question, that's part of where the markets are right now. another round of covid even though -- look, i feel eternally optimistic as a human being, and i have a lot of confidence in the pharma industry and the process around it that we're going to get that vaccine. we're certainly finding better

treatments, better numbers on mortality. i think the market is overall looking at the economy have some reason to look forward and actually the impact of what that might look like, but meanwhile we have a very accommodative fed, that remains on fire, despite the fact that all parts of that trade are -- i think the uncertainty make so much sense, and i mean professional and retail alike would have packed it in. it makes sense you wouldn't want to trade hard through this. >> that makes sense, given all the things up in the air at this point. >> i'm hard-pressed short of a landslide either way, i'm hard-pressed to believe you'll have a declared winner within a week, if not a couple weeks. that speaks to the vol today

to me that makes all the sense in the world in terms of what you just outlined. just everything that i read suggests this thing is going to be hotly contested, and the vitriol on both sides will only increase that's not market friendly either way >> the other possibility is that it is not a contested election, that there is a winner and there's civil unrest, dan. that's certainly the other wild card which would be damaging and psychological damaging for the market >> yeah, no doubt about that, listen, i think it's interesting that that was something we were talking a lot about in may and june, when we really did have civil unrest i tend to be an optimist about our process here i think there's a strong likelihood that not only november 4 do we have a clear winner, but also of the senate and we have the sort of messaging that we will have a peaceful transfer of power you tell me on what we all just

discussed, what you think the market does in that scenario, with the expectation that further infrastructure spending and a very accommodative fed will outdo anything on the regulatory or tax front. you say to yourself that's a pretty good setup for stocks. >> so the risk/reward is to the up side in your view, dan? >> listen, i think the worth-case scenario is on the tip of everybody's tongue, because we live in a it-hour news cycle, especially on social media where that's the stuff that gets clicked. we weren't thinking in 2016 that trump had a strong likelihood to win, and remember the strong volatility around the globe. so i think that neek-jerk first reaction that people aren't expecting, you might see it reverse, and it might be a very calming effect for markets and volatility in general.

>> i hope for the country 'saying, dan, you are 100% correct on that. karen, do you agree with that? clear winner >> i do agree. i think that it's op certainly the unrest and no clear winner is a likelihood, but i think the more likely scenario is clarity and a relatively peaceful response to that not that there won't by skirmishes, but i think that's the more likely scenario, that we have clarity. maybe not that day, but even if i knew that we wouldn't have an outcome for several days, i wouldn't know how to trade that. i just buy companies that i like, valuationses that i like i don't notice how to put in for the likelihood of contested election and how do we know when to under wind that that's too difficult our next guest says we're

only about halfway through thi sell-off mike wilson joins us great to spz with you. >> hey, melissa, how are you >> down to 10% or so >> yeah, the panel did a great job of laying out all the concerns, things that people are aware of i give the best aware to karen for the halloween visual and the blood in the streets i agree with her completely at the end talking about, look, you have to have a framework how you're investing and not get pulled around by all these events if i'm buying good companies at the right price and have confidence in them, then i should bum see through that, that's 21 times the forward numbers of 160 is where we are today. i think a fair value is closer do 20 times, and then as

overshoot, you go below that so the risk/reward is around 3500 just wasn't that good that's why we called for a so% correction we have a range of 3100 to 3550, and it's ping-ponged back and forth. that's the framework, so you think about it in market terms, you said to add risk and fade it toward the upper range, at least until some of these concerns have come and gone i think guy talked about the vix. this is a big part of our framework. when your vix is higher, you have -- so the equity risk premium is too low, and that's really the framework we're just trying to say disciplined. maybe 6%, 7% if it gets really bad. >> how does that trading range

framework change, mike, when we have clarity on the election let's assume that is in nine days or so >> yeah, the vix will come down, in theory, right we'll have more clarity around who is in control, what the fits cal package might look like, what the timing mike, and don't forget about the virus that you mentioned. that's also weighing on volatility i'm optimistic that ultimately we'll get through this, but we ultimately have to get through that period, but as these events come and go, the equity risk can come down, which is the same as the multiple can go back up. >> so below the surface of the market we have subsectors some even outperforming since sideways in mid july do you think we can continue this rebound, with some of the transport names that have been red-hot, on you do you think

higher rates could raise more tailwind behind the banks? >> beyond the simple trading range, which is the game we have to play, the more interesting story is beneath the surface there's a big bifurcation between what we call overvalued stocks and undervalued stocks, depending on your outlook. we think the that economy could be red-hot we could -- likely we'll get more fiscal once the news administration or existing administration is inaugurated in when that happens is you want to be focused on companies outside earnin earnings financials, we think rates will move up, and will drive financials, some of the smaller mid cap companies, and basically

it's a reopening thing a lot of these parts in the market have not been able to fully operate, they'll sigh tremendous operating leverage. the third quarter earnings season, so far what we are seeing is the revisions are flattening out we're seeing companies beat, but the revisions are not as robust as in the second quarter, which makes sense, but what we are looking for is stocks where revisions will surprise on the up side. it probably isn't going to be the companies benefiting from the lockdown they'll have smaller revisions it will be more the reopening type stories >> mike, it's karen, thanks for being on how important or not is this quarter? like really this week is the bulk of it, for your model >> it's very important we want to confirm where is the operating leverage already showing up

one of our themes for this year is because the unemployment rate shot up so fast, operating costs have come down tremendously. so what we're seeing is the companies are seeing huge increases in margins, profitability, but based on the third quarter estimate where we see them today, the median stock in the s&p 500 will actually have higher operating margins than a year ago. pretty remarkable, right so we're focused on trying to find where the margin up side is surprising so that's kind of the formula. that's what we're looking for in fourth quarter earnings. >> mike, always great to speak with you >> thanks for having me. guy, i think that's an important point. we have to be careful.

they would be sustainable some companies got boost because they weren't spending that much because of the times we're in. >> i've got to tell you, to me it's sew fascinating if you look around, across the board, and that's very good for companies, but it speaks to a much different problem companies that have learned to do more with less. you have to wonder what does that offer for the broader economy snowe i'm not smart enough to answer that question, but i think it's great on one hand i think it paints a dire picture on the other handle. >> dan, last word? >> yeah, i would just say that issue of structural unemployment will be here to stay for the time being, and i just again work about the pull forward. we're going to see it in a lot of consumer-facing companies, and what that means for the

demand going forward i'm not particularly optimistic will about that. we're sitting on an s&p 500 that's up 5%, a nasdaq up 26%. that's on a year where earnings western down, i don't know -- last year the s&p was up almost 30%, so what are we willing to pay for the earnings basically subsidized by the government i'm in the certain we're going to get the renders we would like to expect that a lot of optimists are hoping for coming up. much more on today's market sell-off, including a stark warning from s.a.p nde of our traders says today's bo rally will be short-lived we'll tell us why, when "fast money" returns

welcome back a really rough day for s.a.p shares tumbling after the company slashed revenue and forecast and, dan, we should note this company had given guidance april 24th, and now it's back, saying that things are worse.

>> well, it's really interesting. i think this goes back, mel, to the conversation we were just having think about given guidance back in april a lot of companies those this would be a one or two-quarter thing. they discounted what some scenarios were, and then gave guidance it's interesting, the stock from mid april other so rod about 50%. you know where it went today back to exactly when it was trading when it gave that guidan guidance if you look back at the one-year chart. to me a lot of annualists are say this is very company-specific, but it just speaks to the fact that with the words we were given, complacency, unusually high sentiment, everybody has to plan until they get socked in the mouth. i think that's what happened. >> a lot of businesses weren't

putting off spending i feel like you were in dan's head when he was talking about the chart. >> dan's in my head. i'm looking back in early may, where you're looking at where the stock exploded, it was basically 113. and oh, by the way, about 19 times normal volume. s.a.p. typically trades about -- i understand that fastly is not the same company, but look at what they said i understand s.a.p. is $120-something billion, but to me what they said wasn't a 23% mo move it is concerning, because i think everybody, or a lot of people thought software was impenetrable in this environment. much more ahead here on "fast money.

here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: there are only eight days left to the election. what it means for where you put your money and, later, shares of,en approaching a key level that could signal a big level for the sector enfa meyrernat and a lot more, wh "ston" tus.

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♪ that's why i take osteo bi-flex, to keep me moving the way i was made to. it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. while helping with occasional joint stiffness. osteo bi-flex. welcome back to "fast money. storks plunging as we close in on election day. so what is the biggest election risk for investors right now let's bring in senior policy

analyst ed mills great to have you with us. >> great to be here, melissa. what is the biggest risk >> from every investor i ask, the biggest risk is a contested election, something that draws this out what the market wants is a clear winner on winner or declared pretty soon thereof, and a quick pivot for additional fiscal relief, so we can get on with the economic recovery and focus on fundamentals rather than politics i i hate to ask this question, what do you think the impact of the market is if we have a clear outcome when it comes to congress, but we have an unclear outcome when it comes to the presidency the most important is, by far, the presidency. >> sure. >> one of the things i'm watching early is the state of north carolina it's a swing state it has a senate election that

could bless clearly determinant. they count all their absentee ballots 14 days before the election, so they're counting them now if it's clear that joe biden has won north carolina and the democrat has won the senate seat, then it might be a bit into the evening, then it's a democratic sweep if trump wins, that could be where the conventional wisdom could be up for disruption and let's say it's a clear-cut joe biden victory. in the ensuing days you see a significant rally in the u.s. equity market, which will no doubt infuriate the president. given his want for the market to go higher in his administration, my question is, if you see both those things happen, how much of a potential monkey wrench in the system could that be a rising market in that month

and a half period where president trump would be a lame-duck president? >> the question is, would it be a wounded duck kind of time per, where any deal on fiscal stimulus would be off? i do think that's why mitch mcconnell said the senate would only consider a bill if there was a presidentially supported bill however, there are some things he would like to get done. the december 11th deadline for funding the government and rising covid cases put pressure on it. the market would also be looking at a scenario where in a post-inauguration period we have a much larger package, so i think that's where the pivot goes to rather than a near-term deal the quickest deal in a trump reelection, largest deal in a presidential sweep the biggest uncertainty would be a biden presidency with a

republican senate, would mitch mcconnell play ball in that scenario if we have civil unrest, is that a risk factor in your view? or is that so small compared to the others >> i think it's an important thing to think about ultimately we are a very divided society, and so that's part of the reason why i think the market has wanted a clear winner, because i think there is going to a segment of this population, regardless of how this election turns out, will not accept the winner. if there is doubt in the election, that's where we see a greater chance of civil unrest, including a real chance there's a difference between the popular vote winner and the electoral college vote winner. i think there's real kind of down-side risk to the market from a civil unrest scenario playing out, as you discussed. >> ed, thank you ed mills, raymond james. >> thank you. tim seymour, you make up,

day after election day, the risk is to the what up side or down side >> are you giving me an outcome? >> no. it's an adventure. >> i think the adventure is one around clarity i don't think you can add more to the conversation where there's uncertainly. the markets will trend lower until we have some sense i have zero expectation we'll get stimulus with a lame duck. it probably won't by late first quarter where you get somebody the infrastructure bill is the closest we have to bipartisan. the trades that will work, though, especially in rates are trending higher because of some expectations -- here's some scenario analysis, if you're getting more of a blue wave, i

think the contingency rates go higher i think that will support some infrastructure rays some resoars trades, but i think, as i opened the show, i think there are a lot of folks positioned now as they expect to be positioned for the next three weeks. coming up, what's got dan so concerned? and later we're counting down to the earnings for the big names this week. what should we expect from microsoft? a lot more "fast money", right after this break ♪

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i agree with the la times: no on 22. uber and lyft want all the power. so, show them the real power is you. vote no on prop 22. welcome back to "fast money. stocks getting slammed today, but today's selloff has dan nathan putting on his technician hat. he's not alone on this one this is a "fast money" technicals tag team. so dan, kick us off. >> first disclaimer, i learned everything i know from carter. this is the good, the bad and

the ugly this thing hasn't seen an uptick in like three months or so i look at that low from the spring at 30 i say to myself, my goodness, if that thing breaks, that's about 10% away, that takes you back to the 2002 low, i say warning bells will go off in the energy complex, so i think you have to keep a klee eye on this exxon chart. >> carter, what do you tell your grasshopper? >> sure. well, i can't disagree if everything he knows from me. hey, listen, the key is this, does exxon break its march low one way to figure it out is look at other integrated. royal dutch is right at its march low. bp has broken its march low. chevron is much higher in any event, the issue is this.

when you hover ominously just above a prior low and other stocks in comparable positions have broken or are on the cusp of breaking, the bet is it will break. so i'm in for lower prices what it means for energy overall, the entire sector is only 1.9% of the s&p two stocks are half the weight it's almost not a sector anymore. dan, what about the banks? >> i think importantly it's up about 38%. it's making what some technicians would call a wedge carter would say the tension is really building here to me a lot of optimism about this group but i just feel like a break of that up trend, and you have a

lot of them following suit, and then you put that together, and then financials not acting well, i think that's the risk righ here a lot of money wants to rotate into >> well, what dan characterized is a standoff. you have convergen trend lines in a convergen price range we know that the stock is sitting here basically in the apex of that and you get a fairly dynamic resolution up and out, or down and out. we know that citi bank has already collapsed down jpmorgan, pnc and most other

banks have broken to the up side i think the bet here is it will get resolved. >> difference of opinion there dan, you're looking at walmart next. >> this would be the good. you loomp at that july ramp, and then kept on notching higher if you draw a line from that july level up to where we are right now, we're kind of tested. i would say that's a key support level for a stock that's acted very, very well throughout this pandemic one of these names for a lot of fundamental reasons people have been excited about we know that move was -- when walmart prime to compete with amazon, so you've had a lot of good fundamental news in the name, but it's starting to labor a bit and break that recent up trend. i would just keep as eye on some of your best names, because they

run the risk of also breaking down >> well, i mean, that's exactly right. you know, it's funny i have a teacher/mentor, and he said if you can draw a straight line, you'll probably do well, but the truth is he was be candid the stock got re-rated aggressively higher. and if you draw a trend line along the sequence, we are flirting with either holding or breaking trend i think walmart holds here i have one chart, maybe one of the worst charts out there, and maybe you can see it, this is msg networks if you were to define a down trend, you would probably use this as an example, but it's an

unrelenting circumstance of weakne weakness >> carter, great to see you. thank you. a lot of charts to go through. tim, i'll go to you. which one caught your fancy? >> by the way, the movie is called "the good, the bad and the ugly." so dan needs to get his clint eastwood down. but i believe there was a dynamic, we talk about the trends of acceleration because of the covid, and that's what's going on with walmart. the digital e-commerce is soaring. there's a tech company in the middle of the bigger brick-and-mortar i know it's know -- i think walmart has done the fundamental work here and the chart looks

decent. >> karen >> well, i used to not be a believer in charting stocks, but i have actually come around. one of the reasons is enough people think there's merit to it, then there is. i also like it when i agree with positions that i have, which is bank of america and walmart. walmart for all the reasons tim said, and it has a stay-at-home trade, but also a reopen or stimulus trade, and it's not crazy expensive. exxon mobil, not for me. >> guy, what did you think of dan's work >> tremendous. tremendous as you've had set, carter is --e i didn't understand a word you

were saying there, about you i would like to go off the board for 500 and say i'm surprised dan didn't brings up wells fargo being the ugly, because it's an unmitigated disaster, and now within 70 cnn of that march low. that to me i think is one people have to look at and what's eating -- not gilbert grape, but wells fargo? will the work at-home entrd spark this trade tomorrow? much more ahead on "fast money." gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get more healthcare benefits through a humana medicare advantage plan. call the number on your screen now and speak to a licensed humana sales agent to see if you qualify. learn about plans that could give you more healthcare

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welcome back today's sell-off had investors going into treasuries. tim, what was your take? >> look, we have to be watching long range for a number of reasons. i think mostly they're a barometer of where the economy is, and the federal reserve plays a role here. we've been talking about rates, and maybe there was stimulus or

not, but breaking above the 200, which the ten-year yield is trying to do since the first time since september 2018. it was yields were moving higher for almost two years as we go the into the fall of 2018 and trade war fears, and raleigh debits 2018, then yields went below. i think rates are going higher i do think you're going to see more follow-through on the economy. rates don't get away on the up side, but again this trend above the 200-day signals i think you have seen the lows. >> there's a trade, karen, in your view? in tlt or bonds? >> the high-yield etf was down that's sort of interesting to me normally it would move the order

way, but maybe credit -- maybe people are getting concerned, but i agree with tim i think we've seen the bottom of the ten-year, and banking, even though they're not a two-year/ten-year trade, the stocks trade as if they were so i think if the yield continuing higher, bankless higher microsoft stocks taking to on the chin today, but what to expect for tomorrow? much more "fast money" straight ahead. at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of microsoft dropping nearly 3% ahead of tomorrow's earnings report. traders are betting an even bigger move could be in story when the results cross the -- hi, bonawyn. >> you take that a step further and look at the after-money, they're applying been between now and friday's compare that to about a 2.5% move, what we have

seen, and a trade i thought was interesting stuck out to me, 1500 of the microsoft october 30th, this friday, november 6th, next friday, 210, 220 swaps traded for 280 so they bought the 210/220 stranged out to the 26, sold the october 30 for a net cash outlay of 280 so after friday, your break even will be about 222.80, or about 207.20 if the stocks break 226. 95 you sell out of that november long and buy back that october. i thought it was an interesting way, you're buying backens >> what are your thoughts on the microsoft trade into earnings?

>> and the numbers, they're resting on the rods, so i would say this may not be specific for mo options action tune into the full show on friday. nt,hein tde upex t falras. turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists. and you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks you're interested in. now this is what i'm talking about. yeah, it'll free up more time for your... uh, true crime shows? british baking competitions. hm. didn't peg you for a crumpet guy. focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. ♪

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welcome back to "fast money," a quick programming note, be sure to catch the robin hood co-ceo tomorrow morning we have a market flash here, bloomberg say sands is exploring a sale guy, a quick thought here? >> my initial thought is sheldon adelson isn't selling into

strength this is devastating. you could say he's selling the lows that to me is a huge story to talk about over the next couple days. >> tim, just quickly, to focus on the macau business? it's interesting >> maybe i think there are some trends we have talked about in terms of online gambling that are also global some of the heyday in vegas may be behind the. i'm going i think the ten-year top is a moving away. buy the tlt after the climb it's been on. >> tim >> at&t had very strong subs in their report, also paying 7 1/2 to stick around. i like it. >> karen >> the market opens down tomorrow, and the vix spikes up i'll selling more s&p puts.

>> guy >> my twitter friends educated me as to the grasshopper thing i apologize, mel well done by you thanks for watching