tv Fast Money CNBC October 29, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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operate well in this environment. one reason alphabet is up is because they are suspect whether they will execute on the bottom line and there is some comeback ability. as opposed to the other guys who are beneficiaries of stay at home >> we are out of time here "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. it is such a big night that we have added gene munster to our lineup he is here to break down the flood of tech earnings just hitting the street many of the conference calls are now underway we have full team coverage standing by to break down all of the results. let's break down apple josh lipton has the results.
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>> apple beat on the bottom and top. iphone revenue, the street was looking for closer to $29 million. and mac and ipad beating expectations i talked with ceo cook about that the decision not to offer a q1 forecast saying the pandemic is causing too much uncertainty right now. saying -- naturally naturally,, iphone, saying they are not seeing the benefit of sales like last year telling us we have a number of
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tail winds we launched four new models. 5g is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. we have a large and loyal base to sell into and in the united states there are aggressive carrier promotions initial data points, cook said, are quite good he talked to us about the stores the vast majority of 500 stores are open, but in different ways. some as usual, some by appointment only cook said -- the call is just starting now. i will bring the headlines as they come. >> thanks, josh. guy, no guidance for what should
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be its strongest quarter of the year what do you make of that >> it leaves you in suspension suspense i think it's great gives us something to talk about. if they don't have visibility, they shouldn't have guidance service is 22% of overall revenue which is good. there is a lot to like here. some things to be disappointed about. it comes down to where do you buy the stock ahead of what could be a ridiculously strong quarter. there are two levels, the september 6 level and the level i think a lot of people are looking at which is $96 which we exploded up from last quarter. those are your twos levels pick which one you want to wait for. >> there is a glass half full aspect as josh said cook said, that the
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iphone 12 data is quite good how do you look at the story, karen? >> i look at it as the weakness for the iphones is not a factor. it is all about next quarter i applaud them for not giving guidance i think companies shouldn't give guidance at all let alone during a pandemic good for them. they shouldn't i'm long the stock there is a lot to like, but it's pulling forward. the max numbers were very good wear bls it's obviously service was the story. what will drive the story is the iphone i am long here down 4%. i would look to add more maybe around the 106 level guy talked about. i don't know how much we will
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get from this call since they don't want to give us guidance if you didn't own any and it traded down tomorrow, i would be a buyer. >> it seems like there could be a lot of push-pulls in the first quarter. the core data is good. but the strength came in mac, wearables and all of the things, dan, you argue is from future quarters could not giving guidance be because they can't estimate that either >> i think guy said it they don't have great visibility so don't give guidance back in 2018 the company gave guidance and massively disappointed in china. the stock was getting creamed the whole quarter. that happened to be the low in january of 2019. the stock is up 225% since then.
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it is a weird quarter of the iphone they shipped two phones in october, will ship two next month. i think it is important to consider this fact the lack of visibility -- and tim cook said it in the statement -- is coming in spite of the virus the second wave, if europe and the u.s. are there will be plenty of demand for this fantastic phone the question will be whether there is service to support it i suspect that's why you see heavy carrier discount $2 million market cap, training about two times earnings and that has doubled since the lows in march if you are excited about service growing at 16% of their business
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coming from google which the doj is coming after, i say you are valuing the story wrong. i think you will have an opportunity to buy this between guy's 96 and 106 in the coming weeks. >> are you a trader or investor. all i hear is that you should own this company long-term people can top rate an iphone number that was weak who cares. they will buy an iphone, at least the base and maybe grab a few more services along the way. the mac business, the fact it was up 29% year over year -- actually, the numbers that came through beat very strong estimates, i think we pulled forward. i think the learn from home thing is from apple. it will not go on forever.
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but the most important thing about this argument -- because we never argue on this show -- is what is the multiple you want to put on the stock? they were all saying in one way or another, more iphones are going to be bought, a lot of them and the service continues to grow. j.p. puts a blended multiple on that at $5 next year it's a $150 stock. i am a long-term investor here >> what do you want to know from tim cook >> i think there are a couple of misunderstandings. apple hasn't given guidance since the pandemic started so this is consistent with what they have done before. the next is the iphone mess. we have talked about it being the timing of the iphone 12.
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and it was mentioned that the iphone will grow by mid september. so if you add 3%, the trajectory and you look at apple's overall rate, you will get to 14 or 15%, a step up from the 11% in the june quarter actually, they are growth accelerated. you could argue that is to be expected you could argue that that is an ta cheechlt because of where the world is at. i tend to favor the second perspective, that this is impressive what they are done. and tim's question what is the right. it's a premium to the rest of tech the services part is software.
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eventually apple will have a hardware business. i still haven't answered your question unless i can get to it quickly. what am i expecting from the call not a lot. josh has already illuminated it, that the two iphones they are shipping are off to a good start. as tim said, we are off to the races because this is a three-year upgrade cycle >> right now apple shares are down 4.4%. leslie, amazon came in ahead of expectations. but still they are looking at growth and web services slowing to about 29% year after year the media call with the ceo just ending really got into some of the
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impacts of the pandemic. on the call he was asked about the company's ability to fulfill holiday orders he said -- he mentioned that amazon had a good dry run and have invested 30 billion in capex to smooth this he expects there to be about 4 billion in the fourth quarter, up from 2.5 in this quarter. it includes social distancing and working from home and cleemg supplies it doesn't appear that today's numbers are enough to give that stock a boost out of the range >> thank you i will go straight to gene on this it seems when amazon released
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their fourth quarter guidance, that's when the session reversed what did you make? >> i was surprised to see the reverse. 37% top line growth is impressive assume they are going to hit their top end, that implies 38 percent year after year. i was impressed. at the end of the day it is just an expensive stock it will be for a long time people are searching for a reason to be negative. it was still a fine number >> it was a fine number. karen, you bought some amazon yesterday. how do you feel about your purchase >> mixed feelings. you don't want it to be down, but if it is down, i want it to be down a lot so i can buy more. i think amazon as an underpromiser, overdeliverer
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i would like to buy more so i want it to trade down. >> we have been in a position where the stock seems fairly stable and then you go into the conference call and they say how much money they are going to spend in the coming year and the stock gets torpedoed i am curious what you think? >> i think in this point in the cycle, they get a kick out of it they enjoy the power they have over the stock price to my point, you see it on both sides of the ledger. almost 6.5% operating margins is a staggering number given what is going on in the world blew away what the street was looking for. your point is guidance good for apple for not giving guidance and i understand gene's point. but if you are going to give
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income somewhere between a billion and 4.5 billion, i think that's why the stock is lower. we tried to breach the top again. seemingly it failed. where do you buy basically we are back where we started at the beginning of the day. i would be concerned if we closed below 3100. >> a wide range, 1 to 4.5 billion. dan? >> you could drive a mack truck through that thing that's what we have become accustomed to. when the stock reports at the upper end of that guidance or beef, the stock does well. when they come in at the low end, then the stock is heavy this is one of these names
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where -- a lot of stocks got cut 30 or 40%. it outperformed on the down side it was one the first to make a new all time high. i think in april we talk about the market has a fed put, this has the tech genius put they want to buy this every pullback i think it is a better name to buy on pullback. >> it is surprise the pullback is not greater if there is a sell in the market mentality, concerning what we have seen earlier in the week, you would think this is a place people would want to take profits after what gene called an okay quarter. tim. but that aws number i think was better than inspected.
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when you look at the investment in fulfillment and people start complaining about margins. this is why amazon are who they are. the most important thing why they hold these numbers is that e-commerce will be up 49 percent in 2020. they own it. and, again, their rising tide is taking the biggest boat in the ocean. well said by guy people aren't getting too far away from the stock on weakness. let's go on to facebook and twitter. julia has the numbers for both of those companies >> facebook meeting expectations on the top and bottom line but also surpassed expectations.
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average revenue peruser was 7.89 versus the 7.82. usage from canada declined between the second and third quarter. they do expect this declining trend to continue. that put negative pressure on the stock in after hours trading. but you can see the stock moved higher again the company said -- >> key insight into what to expect ahead they say the shift to commerce online has increased demand and online advertising is facebook's biggest and saying that could change in the trend next year. twitter had slower than
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expected user growth they added 8 million fewer than expected i spoke to the twitter cfo, and he said -- the company is indicating there is more revenue growth ahead saying there is no reason to believe that the 19% growth they saw in september can't improve outside of that election related window >> thank you tim, thoughts on facebook. >> did you say tim or dan? >> tim >> i have heard of them. i think the ad revenue to me is once again the story and showing how they are in some sense
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dominating is important. the thing that is interesting to me about facebook is their role out of shops to the extent that will give them more digital ad footprint in addition to international growth, i think that's their move into e-commerce and something people have been waiting for for a long time. upside to the valuation. >> karen, what do you want to know from the call on facebook >> they are trying to temper expectations i would like to know why also, anything they have to say about 230, i am interested in hearing. >> a little bit under pressure after hours. >> i want to give them credit for the step back up in revenue growth i don't want to nitpick the
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numbers, but there is noise. 11% in june. the boycott that burned off early in the quarter they talked about the holiday quarter, that is coed for the election quarter they will have a nice bump in ads around the election. even with all of the changes made there is still engagement. the world is hooked on facebook. >> versus what we are seeing with twitter here. dan, this stock has gone up 41% in the three months prior. do you throw in the towel? >> no. this stock rallied on the back of the snap chat and pintrest. i think they pulled an interesting trick. they used to report on thursday
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morning. and they decided to report in the middle of apple and amazon thinking they would get color. great service. i like jack dorsey, what they are trying to do there, but, remember, this is a company that might do $4 billion in sales nextyear when facebook may top $100 billion if they can't grab users, they are going to have to monetize more i saw a whole bunch the ads. i think baseball, football, maybe that's an abbreviated thing. i think if you get it past towards 40 it is worth
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>> for snap, they didn't include any sports in their guidance so the fact that there were abroef y abbreviated seasons helped them. guy, are the best days of twitter behind it? >> no. best days of twitter still are ahead. i think there are so many ways for twitter to go in the years to come. it has only been straight up since the 29 handle. i thought we might be able to build on the move we saw over the last couple weeks. i was wrong vis-a-vis what we saw on pintrest and a few of the others gene addressed this, but look what they did on the operating side they beat the first call number by about 28% margins, operating margins, these are the gap operating
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margins. they were at 34% and the street was 32.5%. this is a great quarter. with all of that said, you had a big run off that 245 level on the way down. karen got in there, i know, because she talked about it. that's your line in the sand i think facebook is fine >> gene, i want to get your thoughts on twitter. >> this chess match here that both facebook and twitter will be in with authorities on regulation there are some measurable unknowns here. nice to see they hit some of the numbers, but at the end of the day i think investors money is better spent other places. and alphabet, the call is underway right now >> alphabet is bouncing back in
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the third quarter. rebound is now seeing it perform in the after hours returning to growth after its first revenue decline in a two-decade history key in what the company sees going forward. the company saying they did see a broad recovery in advertising. that was in line with the economic recovery, but she said there is uncertainty she said there are signs that user behavior is beginning to turn to normal levels. everything was strong from revenue to cloud they said they will further break out cloud as a reporting segment so investors can track aggressive investment and can reflect cloud's growth to the overall business lastly, i would note there has
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been at least two questions on the doj lawsuit and increased antitrust which has been building over the world. >> dierdra with alphabet's results. it has been a laggard versus its peers and nasdaq are we setting up for a golden age for alphabet >> the profitability the massive beat here on the bottom line is very encouraging for google shareholders who have been a little frustrated if i had to sum up earnings of the big four, no doubt the shares reflect where the price has come from. i love the fact that it is a $5 billion. i think that is going higher if you look at all of these separate businesses in addition to the core search juggernaut
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and goes back up close to 10%. so, yes, google is way too cheap at a time when the three other companies we were talking about. even facebook. have re-rated. google has not google took a major step here, but it's about breaking out and transparency i think that is part of what we are getting. >> they are saying it will from this point on break out cloud, gene is that good for the business? >> it is we talk a lot about surge and cloud. breaking out cloud is an indication they want to get more at illuminating other parts of the business this is not in the fold of the conversation today, but i think any investor buying should pay attention. they have gems in other bets, around longevity,
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transportation, flight when i think about the numbers, it's nice to see the growth rate snap back to normal for google, but i think is sets up a stable narrative which can provide upside in the years to come. >> karen, i want your quick take on alphabet. does this confirm what you believed about the company and valuation or does this make you feel like it deserves a higher valuation than you thought 24 hours ago? >> i feel like mike pence. there was a fly there. remember, google has one of the biggest cash than ever we saw a bit of buyback. i think about 8 billion. i would like to see them do more google has more exposure to the travel business and obviously that's not where you want to be
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right now. i think they will continue to see improvement. it should be higher. if i didn't own any, i would buy some hard to buy something up this much i would want to own it this is an extraordinary business this is an evolution when she got there she was a grown-up and when they broke up two businesses, more clarity on cloud i like this. we will continue to talk about these titans we will check back in coming up. it is call time. we will plug into these calls and bring you any news that happens. did any of tonight's rngshaeain cnge the market mood? all of that and more when "fast money" returns new projects means new project managers.
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the market move? let's bring in tony. great to see you >> great to see you. >> what do you think the markets will do in response to these earnings >> you know what i love? it already responded it was up over a percent and after hours it was only a little bit. what i love about those reporting there is differentiation between them and it is not just one correlated market. they are reacting how they went into it and how they came out of it i like they are acting differently. that's a good sign >> as opposed to they all traded as a monolith and that would make you feel better about the market >> often we don't explain what correlations mean. when every stock happens the same way, that happens in a
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crash or huge market swoon so correlations which means how each individual stock trades against the market itself. when correlations are high, a scale of 0 to 100, it was at a record high in march correlations have come down so not every stock is trading the same way analysts are doing what gene has done, suggesting what is positive and negative and how the stocks react just like i have to separate the market from economy. i think analysts have to do the same thing on some of these names. >> i know you are a longer term forecaster, tony, but in short terms we have the election coming up in days. at the same time we have just gotten news that walmart is removing guns and ammunition
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from sales floors to prevent theft and losing situations called civil unrest we haven't even gotten to the election as far as civil unrest from an election outcome >> if it has gone to a level that walmart is making decisions like that, do you think a funneled manager would risk their portfolio a week ahead of time we come on tv and act like we have an idea what will happen. we have a pandemic which we have never seen in modern times we still have the election in front of us. we have no idea if it will be contested, if there will be social unrest. we have brexit you could go on and on and on. and at some point it gets discounted let's look at the numbers.
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when we found that when more than 90% of s&p 500 components are trading below their 10-day moving average, it signifies a washout. the same is true from the vix strikes to where it got, 40. it marks a peak in volatility. when these two events happen, it doesn't typically mark the exactly. i am not going to try -- i have proven with you and everybody else, i am not the greatest trader of all time what i do know is that it is significant because it marks the temporary bounds where any further weakness will be made up the futures were weak after the earnings numbers came out. at this point you could open up a little bit weaker. but historically on a short-term basis, you want to add into that weakness the point i stress macroeconomic
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background, synchronized with liquidity. so we are oversold so you will have a stabilization and a bounce, which is what i think will happen, we have excess money, a fed that told us they are going to keep printing money. d.c. is fighting over how much they can give. that's in the background >> tony, thanks. guy, do you buy that stabilization and bounce scenario tony is putting for the -- forth >> last night we started the show on a rosy outlook, mentioned that the vix traded up to the 40 level, the june high i thought the s&p could trade down to 3210
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u.s. and china seem to be bouncing back. it seems that sales did fall by 9% overall, 9% in the u.s., 3% in china, better than expected those were offset by other areas of the market. they owned up 480 new net stores even in this environment on the call kevin johnson said he's feeling optimistic about 2021 and long-term success at the company. five months ago sales were down 65% at the height of the pandemic people are placing orders in drive through. they say they are seeing an outpaced recovery on the weekends solidly positive for drive through in q4. they are projecting sales growth
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between 18 and 23% and -- all of those were a bit better than expected. the stock is up just over 1% >> tim, why is the stock down? >> i think people are looking like them the first few weeks of covid. who is going to come out of this better than starbucks. global comps 18 to 23. starbucks is set up well >> if we are going to talk about fast food, the technology, the benefit of having a heavy technology investment, this is one of them. >> people are too focused on the first quarter. it is optimistic you take the mid point of the guide, you talk about starbucks trading at 31 times.
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tim can echo it seems expensive, probably isn't it has to get above 91 then you will probably challenge the all time high we saw a year ago. i think it's fine. >> coming up, new terms of the mega merger. why some say it is the tightest acquisition they have ever seen. >> and big gains in one major home builder when "fast money" returns. nge. we want to be sustainable, but when you have a truck covering over 300 miles, or you have flights going hundreds of miles, it's a bit more challenging. we are letting the data guide us to the best solution. it's inspiring to try to solve a problem that no one else has solved. that's super exciting.
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just like you watch over your best friend. another life-changing technology from abbott, so you don't wait for life. you live it. welcome back we have a deal update in the luxury space tiffany is agreeing to be bought by the french house. it is down from $135 a share karen, you call this the tightest merger deal you have ever seen and you have seen a lot of them. >> i have. the thing that is extraordinary about this merger agreement, it means that tiffany's sales could
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be horrific, the pandemic, protests in the street, none of that could allow lvmh to walk. and they said there was no deal that could keep this from happening. i don't know if you remember that ridiculous letter from the french ministry saying they shouldn't close on the deal. the other thing, if lvmh drags their feet, and tiffany has to take them to court, it will be the 135 agreement and it will be like this $131 agreement won't have happened. tiffany is good to take a tiny haircut because when you go to
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does that mean that this options trader is betting the stock will rise 40% over the next three months or so maybe not, but this person could be covering a short position so they are probably indicating the draw down we saw over the last two weeks is coming to an end and the stock could be getting support given the fact this is a relatively strong company in a relatively strong market tune in tomorrow at 5:30 tomorrow pete is manning the phone on earnings reports that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations.
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expectand action. 16 people died! did he catch our bad guy? we're know as the charmed ones. you got one day to show me what you got. i want to fight. you need us harry. what a goal! bockey ball, hockey ball, you name it ball. i'm gonna be ready. just say show me peacock into your xfinity voice remote or download the app today. welcome back we are pretty close to after hours lows gene, what happened? >> it is right in line with the street i am surprised to see the stock
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going lower. i think it implies investors hoped for more there are trust issues in the services business. question came up and surprisingly they discussed it i thought they would say no comment. tim cook mentioned they have a lot of other services like apple fitness plus, apple music and other services i can fill in the blanks that apple doesn't want to talk about this there is a key take away from this conference call they are trying to nudge people along. it is a subtle sign of confidence tim cook said three times -- and i counted -- that he's bullish thanks, gene quick comment as tony mentioned
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disparate reactions in the after hours session. >> microsoft was down afterwards with results went up. amazon is sitting right on it. keep an eye on those three tomorrow and into the election those are going to be key to see if we can find some form of grounding as he would head out of the election next wk.ee >> up next we have your final trade ♪ ♪ ♪
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time for the final trades. around the torn. tim? >> strong on starbucks doing a great job. >> nathan? >> twitter, not impressive quarter by any means stock down 17% at 43.50. if you see this thing at 40, i think that's where you buy it. >> karen >> as a friend of the show said you can't feel two pains at once that's what it was like looking at all of those earnings some pain, some good
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tiffany, buy and sell. >> scarjo want to come on after their honeymoon. it did bounce, caterpillar >> don't my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i'm just trying to make you some money. my job not just to entertain you, but educate and teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.
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