it's monday, november 2nd, 2020. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ here we go, everybody. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. joe mentioned u.s. equity futures looking sharply higher this hour. this comes after joe mentioned the worst week we have seen since march for the dow. not just the worst week but the worst month for the dow. last week down over 1,800 points for the month it was down 4.5%, the worst month since back to march. and this is two down months in a row we have seen for all three of the major averages. just a moment ago, the dow up by 500 points above fair value. s&p 2350u67s up by 55. anything goes. we'll watch what happens

really big moves ahead of all of this if you want to look at what's happening with the treasury market this morning you'll see it looks like ten-year is yielding 0.865%. the yields picking up for treasuries as well crude oil prices are under pressure as we look at lockdowns taking place in europe right now you'll see that crude oil is down by 2.6%. of course, this comes after big declines last week, too. wti down to $34.86 and andrew, a lot because of what happened of what we're hearing out of europe. >> it is, becky. let's talk about what's happening in europe. boris johnson announcing a second national lockdown over the weekend. it will begin on thursday. closing all non-essential businesses for the next four weeks but leaving schools open people will be ordered to stay at home except for grocery shopping, medical care or education. pubs and bars will be open only for takeout and delivery meantime, on the other side, france and germany also

announced nationwide lockdown. new covid cases in europe have doubled in just the last five weeks. let's also talk about what's happening in the united states 99,000 new cases on friday alone. level reached for the first time since the pandemic began nearly two dozen states reported their worst weeks ever for new cases. 16 states reported single day records and three states reported record deaths so, it's a lot it's a lot, joe. potentially good news, joe, about wa took place over the weekend in regard to what's happening in new york, maybe >> trying to understand this the way that it's written i'm not sure i understand it but here it is, over the weekend new york governor andrew cuomo ended the two-week quarantine requirement for people traveling from most u.s. states. instead, new york will require travelers to get tested before

traveling. then quarantine for three days before taking a second covid test if the test comes back negative, the quarantine period can end. the policy doesn't apply to pennsylvania, massachusetts, new jersey he's talking about for travelers coming in from those other states i was thinking if i were traveling out of a state to somewhere like florida or something like that, if i were to travel there, i don't take the test before i leave. so when i come back. >> you take the test after when you come back, right. >> how do you -- >> that's another state requirement. >> how do you force -- >> hawaii you have to take one before you go, too. >> i just wonder how you -- how did you enforce any of this stuff. but here it's enforce for us here at nbc actually. >> rhode island -- >> the employers will enforce it that's what happens. the schools enforce it it's not the police enforcing

it >> employers enforce it in terms of coming to job they can't make you stay in your house and not go to a grocery store or go to a restaurant. there were places in rhode island they were checking on you, sending out state troopers at one point or maybe even the national guard. >> three day quarantine. >> effectively a three-day quarantine as long as you have the test. >> and depends on how long it takes to get the test results back five days instead of 14. >> every employer will decide exactly how strict you need to follow -- i'm thinking again myself i'm going away for thanksgiving. and i'm just wondering am i going to be back in my basement with the delay and with the -- i do get people bring me toast and stuff. but i don't -- >> up the side. >> i definitely would rather be here i'm trying to figure out how it

works for us. >> as long as the state is still saying that, employers will follow those rules so, i don't think it's a suggestion i think it's still mandatory depends on how quickly you can get a test turn around three days if you get a quick test we know testing has not always been great two, three, four days before you get the test results back. >> you two are not planning on leaving the state for thanksgiving >> no. >> i'm not leaving the state for thanksgiving but i would just say this is a huge improvement and if other states were to follow this, you could actually see in terms of economic activity -- i know there are people who have questions about the efficacy or safety of this decision, but i think there's a lot of businesses you talk about business travel, talk about vacation travel, you talk about all of the economic machine behind this. to the extent we can get more precise with these -- to the extent we'll have lockdowns or quarantining measures, if you

can be precise about it and actually the testing is good, this to me is a huge leap forward. >> right right. >> i would agree i think that's been part of our problem is we haven't had better testing. when in doubt, people wind up in quarantine for ten days, 14 days if you can test these things and if we ramp up the testing and quickly and run with this, i think that does help all the way around for the economic part of this equation. >> that two-week was a blunt instrument when i did go away, i did two, two-week quarantines when i did go away i was in a county in one of the states that was on the list that was lower than back here so you know, it was -- the way that it was sort of enforced made no sense. >> imperfect. >> i was not in a high incident county, but no one asked because it was the entire state. it was like this monolithic thing. >> no. there are parts of new jersey at points that would have fallen down by the shore a couple month or two ago if you went down to the one of those counties, that county wasn't in the state you would have had to quarantine

coming back because the rates there were so high it's not perfect it's imprecise they've been blunt instruments as you mentioned but the better with eget with this, the more testing we can do and the more precise we can be and people can feel better about things. >> all right in the meantime, dr. anthony fauci may not feeling too confident about his job security president trump on thursday thanked the crowd for their advice and commented on dr. fauci's future [ fire fauci, fire fauci, fire fauci >> don't tell anybody. but let me wait until a little after the election i appreciate the advice. i appreciate the advice. no he's been wrong in a lot of -- >> that was the crowd chanting fire fauci ahead of time

the white house blasted dr. fauci on saturday after he was critical of the administration's pandemic response in an interview with the washington post coming up, stocks looking to bounce back after last week's selloff. pretty ugly chart. i looked at it last night market was down this morning i got up it was up 50 next thing i know it's up 300. little strange we'll take a closer look at how the potential outcomes could impact your money. i have no idea what that was today. i can give you six different scenarios favoring either candidate. so i don't know. make sure you tune in to cnbc all day tomorrow. all day. i want you to put it on, leave it there for 24 hours. okay then actually longer because we're going to be starting early on wednesday any way, full day coverage tomorrow night coverage then special election night coverage at 8:00 p.m. continuing throughout the night then "squawk box" will get an early start at 5:00 a.m. on wednesday morning. you hear that sorkin i don't want to hear any excuses

about daylight savings time. i didn't re-adjust this. i didn't do that you are going to be here all right? you'll get up with the rest of us for once. we'll be right back. at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good.

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for the bulls on wall street with the dow shaving off more than 1,800 points. joining us to talk about markets with the busy week ahead peter typically his view of the investment environment he views things usually pretty bleakly. peter, ever been less bleak? i've never seen you less bleak you bleak today? >> no. listen, i've been long, joe. last time i was on a while ago, i said that. and -- >> i'm not looking for any type of mea culpa usually -- what else are you supposed to do if you're in this business other than figure out what risk is other than that and you do that well i can't imagine if you were worried in the last few years given an overactive fed or monetary policy or debt fiscal deficits, valuations, if any of those things had you concerned in the past, you've got to be

pointing to some of these things right now, aren't you? >> well, sure. risk management, watching your back is important because if you take care of the downside of the upside sort of take cares of itself you mentioned a bunch of the risks for sure i think right now what i am beginning to focus on is the valuation question valuations typically don't mean anything about market performance in the short-term, but definite impacts your longer-term performance because obviously the higher valuation you start at pulls forward future returns so middle of october, when we start to see some of the tech earnings come out and even though they were good, markets sold off that told me that maybe the market is becoming more sensitive to valuations, particularly in the overvalued areas of the market that have driven the markets to this point. >> there has been kind of some bifurcation and interesting winners and interesting losers what can you glean overall from the action and the stay at homes

versus the cyclicals and everything else. you can't ignore that. >> for sure. but i think that was a story 2020 i think 2021 i think people have to start switching their perspective and think and hope that we're going to have a vaccine, 2021 in terms of covid it's going to be much better situation. so, i'm looking at the winners of 2021 being the losers of 2020 and vice versa and investors need to look at what has not worked again, assuming we're going to get a vaccine. i'm hoping this winter is the beginning of the end of covid and thinking about what the world is going to look like. that positive could be mitigated by where interest rates go i expect them to go hire i expect inflation to go higher and all these world central banks that have put pedal to the metal because of covid that will have to find reason and the reasons i just gave to start reversing this and that also can have

implications in the markets as well >> you would welcome higher interest rates and higher inflation? or that would be a negative? >> well, i would not welcome higher inflation i think inflation would be the worst possible thing that could happen because it would lead to higher interest rates very overindebted economy. i like low inflation i like a low cost of living for people because it raises real wages. that higher inflation prospect is kryptonite for central banks forces them to act rather than them wanting to act passively. on their own initiative rather than the market forcing them to. we're beginning to see this rise in long-term rates now long-term rates rose because we had strong growth but still modest inflation that i'm okay with there's higher inflation, then that will not be a good scenario >> we have been micro analyzing the ten year

i thought it was -- we were between .6 and .8. now we're almost at .9 with oil at 34. i guess when you look at literally basis point moves you can't read anything into necessarily into the ten year. it has been rising while oil has been falling, the yield. why? >> oil happens to be the only commodity that has not rallied we have seen a rally in the industrial metal rally in the grains. rally in gold and silver, of course i do think crude oil will get going at some point. if you get that positive vaccine news, oil could be one of the better performing assets in 2021 which to your point, the reverse inflation more aggressively on the upside the inflation story we're seeing is on the good side. covid turn supply chains upside down demand very elevated because of all the fiscal spending. if you get more fiscal spending, more supply chain disruptions, and you then get a rally in

crude oil to join the other commodities, you do have an inflationary scenario that the fed and other central banks have to deal with. >> so when do we hit 1.5% on the ten-year, 2%, next year, 2022, when >> joe, i think if pfizer gives you good news in the next couple weeks you'll at least see 1% on the ten year i said that global bonds are the sale of the century if you get effective vaccine for covid. >> so we get to 1% and i still don't think that's -- that's not normalized. >> it's the trajectory of rates, the rate of change of rates we have to focus on it can go to 1 rather quickly. it can go to 1.25, 1.5 after that rather quickly. >> all right, peter. i need to note, can you lift that up? is that a window are you sitting in a room -- is there anything behind that or just the wall?

what's behind that >> it's glass behind the shades. >> there's what? >> actually glass behind the shades. >> glass to the outside? >> yes >> no, it's a window >> big window. all right. nice shades. it's nice. looks good good color peter, we'll see you again cnbc contributor you're still a cnbc contributor, aren't you >> yeah. >> you are all right. wear that like a medal, rightly so. >> yes, i do >> okay. >> for sure. okay coming up when we return a lot more here on "squawk box." we'll tell you why supply will be tight for reagain ron's antibody treatment that's proven effective at fighting covid-19 meg terrel will join us with something you won't want to miss. a look at the biggest premarket gainers in the s&p 500.

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regeneron's antibody drug has been proven to help fight off covid-19 but a complicated manufacturing process will be a limited factor for supply meg terrel joins us right now with more on that front. meg, good morning. it's great to see you. >> it's good to see you, becky regeneron started working on this drug way back in january and essentially it's a combination of two different antibodies, one they engineered in mice and one they isolated from people who survived covid-19 and the reason it takes so long

to produce, once they start manufacturing, it's about a 3 to 4-month process is they're grown in living cells. the cells come from chinese hamster ovaries. these are common cells used to grow bio tech drugs and grown up in these series of bio reactors that start in really small ones like soda cans and get ever larger over a period of four to six weeks. once they get to the big vat which really starts to look like a brewery where you make beer baa lot cleaner, they start to churn out these antibodies from that process they go into quality control which takes another three to four weeks and shipped to another location to go through fill and finish so all in, it's three to four months and that's why at this point even though they started this months ago, regeneron only has 50,000 doses available if the drug got the green light from the fda now. they plan to get that up by to 300,000 by 202 157bd partnered with rausch.

now, people are frustrated that we don't have more of these drugs. in fact, scott gottlieb pointed out he's been calling for an increased effort from the government to ramp up the manufacturing of these antibodies he says way back in march. he says regeneron did extraordinary work to secure their own manufacturing but we needed a concerted industrial effort to get the supply we needed and, in fact, becky, he is still calling for more government effort here to try to get more of these drugs as a bridge to vaccines if and when they start rolling out and we need other options as well becky? >> hey, meg, the whole idea of this, we've spoken with scott gottlieb about this, too if the government was to step in now and start spending to try to ramp up some of the production on it, how quickly could that change the scenario? you're still talking about months no matter what happens. >> yeah. what we were hearing are regeneron about this manufacturing process shows how complicated it is.

there aren't a lot of free manufacture plants out there to make these drugs they're not things we typically see. still folks like got loeb think more could be done here and of course he wishes it started earlier. >> and meg, in terms of how something like that would happen, you have to use the defense production act to do it and extent that the trump administration has argued that the, quote unquote, market, the private market, would take care of itself in this instance, is the issue that it's not a profitable enough to do? if this was a remarkably profitable project, you would think lots of companies would want to get involved given that 2 million doses doesn't sound like a lot in terms of global demand. >> yeah. those are all really good questions. regeneron actually shifted all of the manufacturing that it does in the united states of all of its other drugs to europe

months ago and freed up all of its u.s. manufacturing space in order to make this drug. so it's just an example of how difficult it is to make these investments early when you don't know how much drug will be needed, whether the drugs will work there's just an incredible amount of risk it's very expensive. and so what you've seen them do, the government do, very successfully with vaccines is insist more than $10 billion in multiple different projects. and we really are seeing those moving at these incredible paces. if you look at what operation warp speed invested in therapeutics, less than $2 billion. still significant amount of money and they invested with lilly and regeneron to support production and create a market, but it is a different focus. vaccines have really been the focus of operation warp speed. >> meg, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you when we come back, we'll take a closer look at the astronomical amounts of money being spent during this campaign season. plus, what market

performance can signal about the potential election outcomes. check this out the morning, the dow indicated to open 475 points right now. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: today's big number $14 billion. that's the estimated total cost of the 2020 election, according to the center for responsive politics making it the most expensive election in history and ictwe as expensive as 2016. as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products. but no matter how things change, one thing never will...

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♪ good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" on this monday morning. a day before the election. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour because things are on the move and on the move higher. right now the dow looks like it would open up 500 points higher, 480 points higher now. nasdaq looking to open 142 points higher. s&p 500 looking to open 53

points higher after what has been a terrible run of just a couple weeks here now. meantime, astronomical amounts of cash have been spent on this election cycle want to get over to elon who has a look at where the dollars are being deployed >> well, andrew, you're right. the amount of money being spent this election cycle is just absolutely jaw dropping. the senate for responsive politics estimates it will total $14 billion smashing all previous records and even outpacing the center's own forecast following a late surge after the death of supreme court justice ruth bader ginsburg and just a flood of money and interest into some of the senate races. in fact, just over half of that $14 billion, 7.3 billion is going toward congressional campaigns. now, the north carolina senate race between gop candidate tom

till lis and democratic challenger cal cunningham is now the most expensive in history, clocking in at $285 million. other big money matchups in iowa, south carolina, arizona, all of those races are topping $200 million and in each of those states, democrats do hold the fundraising advantage. notably we got to talk about south carolina where the democratic challenger jamie harrison raked in $58 million in just one quarter that was a record of its own and a lot of that money is coming from outside the state. both from large and from small donors 93% of harrison's funding is coming from the outside. that figure is 83% for republican senator lindsey graham in north carolina more than three quarters of the money in that race is coming from the outside so guys, that just shows how important the race is not just to obviously the voters in those states but also for the party's

national strategies as well. andrew >> ylan, are any of these folks campaigning on campaign finance reform ultimately? anyone ever mentioned taking some money out of this system? i can only because clearly if you want to starve the swamp and change the game, it's the only way to do it >> yeah. so that hasn't been the priority in a lot of these races obviously the pandemic is taking top billing, healthcare, et cetera house candidates said they won't take any corporate pac money that has become less important in this cycle than some of the other types of money that we're seeing flood into the system and indeed, some of the small dollar donations through sites like win red or act blue have been a way to channel some of the energy across the country around national issues >> okay. thank you. appreciate it. let's bring in a guest who

studies market performance around elections joining us right now is ed, ned davis research group chief u.s. strategist ed, you took a look at these things typically right after an election if the republican incumbent wins the markets tend to do better, but that's not necessarily the case for the next year. what are you looking at when you look historically at what happens? >> yeah. so we look back to 1900 at all election cycles. we divide the market up into whether the incumbent won or lost and in particular when the republican incumbent won or lost the market does tend to rally either way after the election. it's a relief rally. but the rally is much stronger when you have the incumbent winning especially the incumbent republican winning but when you go into the next year, it tends to reverse, actually the market does better when the incumbent republican has lost and so i think the message from this is a lot of the political

aip aipgs is really about sentiment and not fundamentals other things seem to matter over all the concern who will be in the white house. >> meaning that people worry there will be big changes to come and is often the case less gets done historically >> exactly in reality, those things are very hard to get through, even if the democrats take the senate, too, it may be hard to get some of those through and may not be the top of biden's agenda in 2021 may be something he pushes for later on in a few years. so, it doesn't mean these things are going to happen. and so, you know, the market will be concerned about it, but in reality, you know a lot of the time those things don't actually come to fruition. >> i mean, you were looking all the way back to 1900 is there an argument to be made that maybe that's changed a little bit in recent history maybe the last 12 years, last 16

years, last 20 years >> well, first of all, important caveat we're not talking about a ton of cases. and so you don't want to draw too many strong conclusions, just one piece of the puzzle when you talk about investing. but actually the data has been pretty consistent. if you look at the six times the incumbent republican party has lost, the market was actually down from september 15th to election day six out of six times so this has been very consistent where doesn't matter if you go back to 1900, start at 1980, these trends have been fairly consistent >> you said that it didn't matter even when the democrats took the senate at the same time i think that's the big question people have been watching. if you're going to see big swings it will be because there's a blue wave that takes over all three of those branchs. do you have any historical things that look back even when

the opposition party takes the senate, too? it doesn't necessarily matter? >> yeah. so we looked at various combinations so, for example, a democratic president, democratic congress, democrat president split congress and actually under democrats in the white house the market has done a little bit better when they're having some sort of check in their power, split congress or republican congress although the market has risen under democrat president and democrat congress, just not as much so there is something to be said for some sort of check on power. especially if there's a democrat in the white house >> ed, thank you for your time today. >> thanks for having me. >> sure. by the way, folks, don't miss our team coverage allnigh tuesday and early wednesday morning as the vote counts trickle in we're going to bring you up to the minute coverage and reaction in the markets you can see this morning, though, markets are indicated

higher you're looking at the dow indicated up by more than 500 points right now coming up, stocks coming off a tough week but futures are, as we just heard, up over 500 points soaring this morning. take a look at the nasdaq 100 names leading the way higher later, we'll talk to ryanair ceo michael o'leary blasting government lockdowns as air traffic fell 80% in the last six months reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app ♪ (harold) twelve hundred strings of lights.

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welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour because we are on what looks like going to be a run this morning. the dow looking to open up about 482 points higher. nasdaq looking to open 145 points higher. the s&p 500 looking to open about 53 points higher potentially ahead of this election after what has been a couple of weeks now, maybe more than that, of down days and down weeks. meantime, we have restaurant news to bring you right now. dunkin' brands we brought you the speculation and reports of this news taking place last week, but now it's official

being sold to arby's owner inspire brands the biggest transaction in north america, 8.8 billion, since 2014 when burger king restaurant brands bought tim horton's for $13.3 billion. friendly's is filing for bankruptcy protection and selling assets to a private equity firm. chain will remain open during the bankruptcy process i just want to make sure they all stayopen because i have very fond memories as a child going to friendly's, as i imagine many others out there of our viewers did. when we come back at the other end of the this break, stock picks portfolio, regardless of who wins this election you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc ♪ taking care of business >> announcer: don't forget to subscribe to our podcast you'll get interviews, original content, and behind the scenes

access look for us on apple podcast or on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to 'squawk pod" today. at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.

if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly with calvert.

talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly there were tsunamis fourtin the world. and once they happened, we were in a major hurry to get to those regions

to provide aid and support. it was very humbling to be able to help out all those people. it's my dream now to go into clean energy and whatever the next new fuel source is, that's where i want to be. i want to be on the front lines of implementation. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box. the white house says it's preparing for the possibility of election day unrest. fencing is going to be set up surrounding the white house complex. that's starting today. and sources telling nbc that 250 national guards men have been put on stand by and will report to the d.c. metro police department meantime, there have been areas, both of d.c. and other cities, where you're seeing people, you

know, boarding up stores and other things ahead of this election it's something we should talk about because we're just now, of course, 24 hours away from election day and, well, i'll tell you how many hours we are from the final decision in the meantime, let's talk about some of the stocks that have the potential to do well regardless of trump or a biden win. here with some of his picks, squawk picks s john trainer, cio of people united adviser, people has about $9 billion of assets under management before we even go there, let me ask you, john, in terms of just how you're thinking about the world, when do you think we're going to hear about a final decision or a winner in this case >> we're actually pretty optimistic i am amazed at the turnout numbers that we're seeing, people standing in lines i was talking with my sister yesterday. she was in line for three hours. so, i know we could see -- the

fear is a bush v gore. i think we'll find out fairly soon, fairly soon. pennsylvania is the one hold-out, but i think we're going to know fairly soon after the election >> does that mean that you're following the polls, if you will or do you have a different view? >> we're following the polls, but i can tell you one of the nice things i get to do in my job is travel around the northeast and speak with a lot of our clients and number one, i find nobody that's undecided i'm looking for that one person that's undecided most people have made up their minds. they're very definitive. i think they're going to get in. the polls tell us that it's going to be biden. the market is telling us that it's going to be biden so that's what we're preparing for. >> let's talk about some stocks. and i'm told that you think of them as winners irrespective of whether it's biden or trump.

but maybe do you want to clarify that before we get into some of the names? >> no. you know, i actually like that because i get asked quite often, give me the trump portfolio or the biden portfolio. what we really want to do is focus on irrespective of who wins focus on i s focus on irrespective of who wins, one of the companies that's going to do well in the economic environment we foresee this is really the better way to be investing right now i'm excited about talking to you about the companies, but the key issue that we really want to see people focusing on is sales growth hopefully we transition from the pandemic stocks to the economic recovery stocks and we think those are going to be driven by sales growth >> okay. let's rock through this list let's start with nike. that's your number one stock on the list >> exactly you know, nike has gone, it's been a tremendous performer this year it certainly has rebounded very very nicely, but what nike has done is they have moved to an

online presence themselves you know, they have a phenomenal, they have done a phenomenal job in the direct-to-consumer market. we see that continuing and really helping accelerate them to a whole new phase in their sales growth >> okay. number two on your list, dollar general. give me the rationale for that >> dollar general has been a very good stock for us, but, you know, we see that continuing to do well. again, you know, we have seen a tremendous recovery so far we've regained half the jobs we lost, but we still have 11 million people unemployed, so we see dollar general's growth. it's a real value oriented retailer we see that continuing we're looking for revenues up about 18% next year for dollar general. >> thermo fisher scientific is the next stock on your list. >> yes, it's one we have liked for a long time. they are, if you want to consider them, the arms supplier to the biotech industry, and

life sciences, you know, has certainly come to the fore because of what we have seen with covid that's just a booming industry, and thermo is right in the middle of that you don't need to pick the right drug in biotech research is being done, thermo is benefitting from that. >> and you don't think that stock's already gone on a run. all the stock on your list so far have actually done quite nicely over the past couple of months. >> we own all of them, but w just see them primed really well to do well in the economic recovery, the environment that we see going forward, absolutely >> okay. and then finally, let's throw progressive insurance on that list >> yeah, progressive tells you a little bit about our thought process here we own financial stocks, but we own more of the insurance and financial services we've actually stayed away from the regional banks you know, they definitely need to see higher interest rates now, we're seeing rates move up

this morning perhaps banks will do well we have focused on financial services we're looking for revenues to be up 11% next year it's a well managed company. they have one of the best combined ratios in the insurance industry so it's well managed and we like financial services. >> okay. john, it's great to see you. we appreciate your perspective just a day away from the election, win or lose, a couple of stocks that you think are winners, appreciate it >> thank you thanks, andrew when we come back, the black swan author, nasim taleb will join us, and later in the hour, michael o'leary on how europe's new lock downs will affect his company. and the dow was down over 1,800 points, a decline of 6 1/2%, but make uing up a lot ground this morning.

dow futures up 450 points, s&p up by close to 50, and the nasdaq up by 135 as to why, well, it's anybody's guess. we'll have more coverage when "squawk box" comes right back. by the way, also take a lookat the top performers in the dow and pre-market trading you'll see which ones are leading the way. american express at the top of the list up 2 1/2%. we'll be right back. ok, just keep coloring there...

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and your portfolio, today, new week, new outlook for investors. safe strategies, crucial money moves ahead of election day. "squawk on the street," 9:00 a.m. eastern. watch or listen live on the cnbc app. a new month, a clean slate, investors trying to battle back after stocks suffer their worst run since march. but there are some big tests ahead, including tomorrow's election we'll get you ready. plus, slowing the spread of covid, european countries issuing new lock downs we'll talk to the ceo of one of the biggest budget airlines about the impact on his business the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪

♪ good morning, welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. let's show you u.s. equity futures on this monday morning, 24 hours before the election, and how many hours before we get a final verdict, we won't know right now, the dow looks like it would open about 450 points higher right now nasdaq up about 135 points, s&p 500 up about 50 points let's just show you oil prices right now, hard to decipher what is actually pushing stocks this direction at the moment. wti crude at 34 pnlt 89.89, offt 2 1/2% in part because of some of the lock downs in europe. do you think this is an election call that people are making? is it all of the folks that have been out over the weekend supporting trump

is there a view that maybe the polls are wrong? i'm trying to figure out what's moving the market this morning >> it's either a prospect for the status quo, which is still possible, and i'm talking senate and trump, but i don't know. i don't know whether that's a 30, 40% chance or it's that the lead is now even more clear for vice president biden, so there's not going to be a contested election so the market's up on that take your pick. >> okay. i like either of those, but i think that's a smart thought >> really? >> really. >> i was talking to my brother, talking to my wife, and you know, they're seeing things, it depends on where you look. i sent a cover of the "new york times" to my wife just now where it says that four battleground states that biden has been widening his lead, she told me she saw somewhere else that

trump has been gaining in a lot of those battleground states >> i think it's anybody's call. >> i have just seen, andrew and becky, i have some 96 mile long car, like, parades. >> i saw that video, too i saw that video too and i saw an arizona shot, and i saw a pennsylvania shot, and i don't know i don't know maybe that's -- if that's everybody in the state that's voting >> they shut down the garden state parkway yesterday. >> if every single person in the state is at that rally, and maybe that's why, that's not going to put trump over, but and biden, i mean, i saw some earlier where they were explaining why his rallies were, you know, didn't have as many people, and it's deliberate, obviously, because he wants to do the social distancing, but even in the "new york times," one person, i think it was our buddy alex barringson was buried

in the piece, the crowds aren't quite as big as might have been expected do you know, sorkin,where are you? >> i honestly don't know there's part of me that thinks that this is a view that we're going to get a skidecision, it's going to be clear, in the way that the polls suggest, a biden win. there's part of me that looks at the crowds over the weekend and the fact that historically the markets have liked trump and so maybe this is a bit of a hedge, it's hard to understand. >> last week, you know, they're boarding up all of the new york. everything is getting boarded up, and you were talking last week. >> not in new york, very little in new york. >> bergdorf. there is, i know for a fact because of the window, andrew, you know what i'm talking about. they're boarding some things up in other places. i thought it was last week, when

you were talking about, you know, i thought you were sort of implying that all of these crazy right wingers are going to be out looting and rioting, and that's not who i'm -- you know, the violence that we have seen in the past six months or a year is not -- you know, the militia, and some of that stuff is frightening and what happened in michigan i understand all of that >> yeah. >> but i was boarding up, i mean, either side is capable of, you know, it might be more likely a lot of the violence we've seen has not been from those seniors at the villages that are upset about the -- >> look, it goes back to what we saw last week, where was it, reuters, their poll said that 4 out of 10 supporters on both sides said that they wouldn't accept the election results if it didn't support their candidate. >> doesn't that add up to eight people out of ten. maybe not. that's not math. but four out of ten on both sides. >> 40% of the elect rate. >> yeah, it's at 40.

it's not 80. but i don't know, i'll be glad when it's over, won't you? either way >> yes tomorrow can't get here soon enough, and then we'll see what happens. >> i might not be that glad when it's all over. it depends i was at a restaurant and a lot of people, you know, they come up to me, you can imagine what they say to me, and i don't know, and this is even in new jersey. >> nice mask. >> put on a mask >> yeah, nice mask put on a mask. you look better with a mask. your teeth look better let's look at some of the biggest gainers, dow leaders we'll take a quick look. >> what do they say to you >> do they throw their drink at you, what happens? >> tell me it's going to be okay that's what they say they do. and you can read into that however you want, but neighbors that -- i'm in shock, wow, you

so, you know, it's very hard to gauge. very hard. you read david axle rod says he spends 24 hours a day calming nerve of his friends so i don't think anyone is that confident about what's going to happen. >> agree i don't have any idea what's going to happen. >> i don't either. i don't either and you know, we all remember four years ago, it's like what was that it was like, when you see a 98-go to 98-1 in an hour, it's an insane. anyway, let's look at s&p leaders. i'm afraid to look at my twitter account. i might go straight to parlor. we have the parlor guy coming on i thought about that can i switch all my people over to parlor. i can't do that right away, right? i think i'm stuck on twitter, andrew >> you're stuck. >> i'm stuck

and let's look at some nasdaq leaders right now. okay you can see they're up can we just make a pact, guys, that if one or the other side wins, there's going to be no sore winning or losing can we do that >> fine by me. that's you two >> can we not do too much gloating. >> you two make your pact. >> i may get off twitter today just so i don't have to see what happens on wednesday, depending on -- you know, because, god, the level of nastiness. >> i'm happy to make the pact. >> civility, yes civility on all sides and i think we're better at that >> i mean, you've heard about inter-family squabbles and divorces i mean, this is nuts it's like nothing -- >> it's probably a good thing a lot of people aren't traveling for thanksgiving this year. >> that's right. it probably is >> you get a family gathering, add a little alcohol, woo hoo.

>> a little alcohol? exactly. >> guys, it is just a day before the election, as we have been mentioning, and senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us right now with a look at the critical flash points that brought us to this point what's changed and the issues that are motivating voters right now. steve, good morning. >> good morning, becky, the 16 states, the key battleground states have consistently shown a consistent race than the national polls, and how dramatic changes in voter attitudes on covid and the economy are shaping this election. since the spring, former vice president guide has a lead over president trump on handling the coronavirus, a lead that has widened as we have neared the election take a look here widen biden's lead in the battleground standing at 4% on average in arizona, florida, michigan, north carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin, but you can see it's stabilized in

the last poll right there. covid has become more important over time in a dramatic fashion. personal connection, have you had it or do you know somebody who's had it, it's increased from 31% to 76%. one of the most dramatic changes we have seen over this period of time biden's net favorability steadily rising while president trump saw a big drop in the spring you can see that drop connected perhaps with the murder of george floyd after may the president's favorability got a bounce around the republican convention, but never fully recovered. finally, we can see the president could be benefitting from improving views on the economy. those rating the economy excellent or good, it's been increasing heading into the final days of the election and while the race looks wide on a national scale, views on the economy and the battleground states could make it a bit closer or a lot closer, one more thing, democrats hold a lead on who is best on getting people

back to work, but that lead is reversed in the critical state of pennsylvania. pennsylvanians think the republicans and president trump will do a better job getting people back to work. what other president can make this more about the economy and chip into biden's favorability rating for biden it's how much he can make this about covid and the president's handling of it we'll find out more tomorrow in a big way. first the states that play battleground survey. later that night, actual election results andrew >> hey, steve, what -- >> go ahead, becky. >> steve, i was just going to ask. it's so interesting how the economy and health care kind of go back and forth being number one and number two for such a long time with some of these things covid actually thrown into the mix but you know, for a long time it was always it's the economy stupid everything has changed because you can't gauge the economy because of what covid did. where has the horse race been

this time around between those two issues what i have seen and i'm going to the all america survey, three data points, covid about the number one issue, not by much, but certainly covid and health care and health are the number one issues the economy is somewhat behind it, and that's changed a bit peop people's views have gotten more positive as we have gotten further and further into this crisis what we don't know,becky is covid is spreading around the country in a big way and whether that has a further impact on the economy and people's views on it, and again, who is best at bringing the country back economically >> steve, you're cute. but we will know a lot more tomorrow because we've got the final state of play survey coming out and then you say we actually have the election coming too so we'll have both of those data points to decide >> you start the morning with

the final states of play survey, which has done such a great job at chronicling what's going on. >> we'll know everything tomorrow is the election we don't need these surveys anymore after this, right? you'll be glad, right? >> i like your discussion with andrew about like what's motivating the market this morning, joe i think your two reasons were spot -- not that you need me to compliment you but the idea that maybe now people are saying, well, maybe we'll get -- it's really weird, joe. 10 points nationally 4 or 5 points in some of the battleground states, which by the way, statistical significance in that, some of the battle ground states remain in the margin of error at the same time, you talk to pollsters, and they say a 10 point lead is very difficult to overcome, and the more i think about it, the more it occurs to me, the parts do not equal the sum in the sense that this electoral college thing, you just cannot poll for it's

because of the differential and how electoral college works, the national polling works. >> i've talked to everyone, all we have talked about, obviously, but think about how vice president biden could run up the national vote in new york and around here and out in california think of the -- he could be 70% in those places which could almost run up to a 10 point n l national lead and it still doesn't tell you what's going to happen in iowa, michigan and pennsylvania, and it still doesn't tell you if it goes one way or the other, you're going to get the electoral college carping and all of the stuff about a majority not winning, but these guys they were pretty smart that it's not just all about population, it's how we choose congress, too. it's not just about -- it's spreading things out just not from population centers but even that is questioned now

by some people. >> joe, it's just a question as to whether or not we're making sort of mentally the opposite mistake made in 2016 2016 people went in and said, you know, the national polls are here, and didn't take enough look at the state polls. it may be that we're not paying enough attention to the national polls in the sense that the pollsters i have spoken to said it's very difficult to overcome a 10% lead like that, or 11% in our all america poll, but it assumes that there's certain likenesses throughout the country. the idea that you bring up is fascinating, that all of that o 10% is in the existing blue states and none bleeds over to the toss ups and red states. >> these are not athlete, these are not all americans. >> in the all american survey. >> that is true. >> that would be a separate poll on kaespn where the all americas

are voting i would listen to them. >> i appreciate your pointing that out, joe. >> as i always do. >> i'm just realizing, yeah. >> i like that, man, that's perfect for you. oh, there's a loch ness monster. oh, look at that, did you see that >> i don't know how to control this television behind me. >> so you're not trying to do that, huh? now we're in the "national geographic"s channel. >> the machines have taken over, joe. what's next, i'm interested now. >> i don't know, but i could get some cool pictures back there. there we go. >> you're in space. >> dark star >> steve, can i explain to steve, you need the remote to pause it something happened, you hit the remote >> i tried that. >> you know, when i leave this job, when people realize that

this television career of mine didn't work out, i'm going to write instruction manuals for technology >> now where are we. >> that's my hope and dream. >> there's new york city >> it's looking good, steve. >> i don't know what, steve is moving, this is like true teleporting. >> i can't tell what -- >> steve, we will see you in just a little bit. in the meantime, talk about black swan event, steve just had one. maybe that's not related at all. nassim taleb, the one and only is joining us after the break, how investors should be viewing the world and the election right now. we'll tell you what the black swan event before the election is we're going to have special prime time coverage continuing into wednesday morning we're going to be starting "squawk box" at 5:00 a.m. eastern time you don'tment want to miss it

wake up rleay, stay up late. we're back after this. ♪

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morning's biggest pre-market winners and losers there are plenty of them the dow is indicated up by about 440 points leading the way you have nielsen holdings, also mylan and under armour stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ it's made for this guy a veteran who honorably served and it's made for her she's serving now we made it for all branches and all ranks whether they served one tour or made a career of it. we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids usaa is easy to work with and can save you money on auto, home and renters insurance. become a member today. get an insurance quote at usaa.com/quote usaa. what you're made of we're made for

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning, we are now joined by a special market guest who had an early warning of the risks of coronavirus in early january. joining us in an exclusive interview with nassim taleb, author of the black swan it is great to see you this morning. we appreciate you joining us as we try to make some sense of this market ahead of the elections and try to think through the risks to the markets and to the economy, which is something that is your expertise. so tell us to the extent you're thinking about black swans of this election, what would they

be >> i mean, i don't think you, i mean, you should think in terms of black swans because it's not complicated. you're going to have one or the other. the black swan means neither or both or some third person. the central thing is last time people made a mistake predicting the winner, and it's so popaque you got to go 50/50. same thing here, and the same people who last time gave a certain candidate 5%, 1%, 10%, 15% are making the same mistake by predicting again. you have to retreat it as an opaque system, and it's going to be therefore one or the other, 50/50, and when it happens, we'll deal with it the second point and the second mistake, last time people made the association between a result, say trump, and stock

market, a lot of people said, oh, if we have president trump, the stock market is going to collapse, and exactly the opposite happened. and the very same people are also making speculation on what would happen to the market if either candidate wins. >> so today, given that you have always quote unquote leaned in to risk. you've always acknowledged there's always going to be risk and we should bet that that risk may turn out to be true, what are the risks in the marketplace to you now >> well, i mean, i'm seeing not just a risk of the marketplace i'm seeing ta lot of denial in social life about this virus from the beginning we're ten months into this virus, and people are still hoping for a vaccine, something that would cancel it, and go one month at a time, it's going to be over. same thing for governments don't realize that this kind of denial is what's causing us to incur

such a high cost in gdp, in many things, in social life, in everything high cost. ten months into the pandemic, we still do not have systematic testing, when you board a plane, into a restaurant. if we had instant testing, we wouldn't be talking about the pandemic that's a very big problem that we can -- we think we still spend trillions of dollars, i mean, worldwide on nuclear weapons, and when the risk is the virus, and the solutions are not that complicated or the immediate solution is not that complicated. i think this is sort of a case study of government, worldwide incompetence in dealing with the problem, and denial, so we have, and we don't know what's going to happen. imagine this continuing until january, february, march,

because, you know, in the winter people are inside, so contagion rates are higher think about about what can happen impacts on the market, it's weird. the s&p 500, that i see now on the screen, seem to represent the technology more than anything else, and technology has been a winner. a lot of jobs have been created by covid people forget that maybe not, you know, in every discipline or in every sector but a lot of jobs have been created by covid, and if you see a rise in employment or a decline in unemployment, it's not from delta air lines or american airlines hiring flight attendants, it's from technology companies and people who have adapted or are making money from covid, you know, benefitting from it, and hiring a lot of people and contributing to gdp, different from the previous ones we have had in the past. >> nassim, how quickly do you

think the economy will recover from here, irrespective of which president or which candidate becomes president? >> the risk factors, i mean, okay, there is of course if biden is elected, you have the tax issues, always can bring some distortion, some disincentive, effect how can the economy recover from here, you would not go back to pre-covid, we have had changes in the economic structure that are permanent. you have companies that were harmed by covid temporarily, or people, like barbers, you know, i don't have a lot of hair but i will always need a barber, dentist and stuff, they will come back. tourism will come back business travel will not be the same places like new york city, commercial real estate is never going to be the same retail is never going to be the same usually have consumer switch and behavior switch into different

directions, namely remote work, remote meetings, stuff like that you have to think in terms of an economy that's vastly different from the one we had before, and i mean, we have had the internet now for 2 1/2 decades, talking about it for 2 1/2 decades, this is a big impact >> i don't know if it's a psychological black swan or not, i was talking to a doctor late last week, and we were talking about perhaps one of the black swans being that we might get, and maybe it's binary, you get a vaccine, and you get it quick, and gets to scale and distributed quicker than people expect on the downside, this doctor was suggesting to me it's possibly two, three years out from now, the idea that you take a test before you get on a plane, before you go to school in the morning, before you walk into a restaurant and movie theater that that could still be ongoing even after there's a vaccine and what that would do to economic life and economic growth is that a black swan in your

mind >> the idea for me, and central point, we can control the pandemic with very simple methods, rather than go for high-tech, like a vaccine, with a lot of unpredictability. we can focus, we can do all of these things, and focus immediately on the simplest solution, and the least economic, the one was the smallest economic cost into the pandemic, we do not have system systematic testing europe, i have been boarding planes, and nobody has tested. i'm paranoid, of course, with two masks. this is my point testing is not for you and i to enjoy life testing is to lower the rate of transmission of the pandemic, and progressively, without the people who have it, and c

contagion, raites will go down the economic uncertainty we have from here, i think there's a point where we're vastly worse off than before the pandemic, and they have discovered the printing press discovering the printing press, you see what's happening we still have some deflation forces and some sectors, but that printing, nobody in financial history has printed with impunity. >> what is the hedge what is the economic instrument with which you would hedge against that or these other risks you're talking about i should know by the way, at least according to some reports, your firm posted a 4,144% return in the first quarter alone based on a hedge you had made relative to covid >> i cannot talk returns but we can talk about this is universal

program, and the nature of the product is to provide risk hedging, to prevent people from being stopped out in the market, having to exit when you have trouble and make money, it's sort of like insurance, but the program, the way we view it, is not just hedging program, it is a hedge fund on its own, you know, in a little more than a decade, in the last iteration of the program has done phenomenally well. so that's the way we view it anyway, so, but the individuals should not be in the market if they are scared. that's our idea. should be there with money you're willing to lose, and you

should realize that you have more uncertainty ahead than you think. i mean, the returns can be a lot better or a lot worse than you think, and the tendency of people to underestimate that uncertainty is chronic, just like the inability of people to understand the forecasting in elections is extremely poor. they don't realize, they'll keep doing the same, so i'm going to make sure the risk is chronic in human nature >> nassim taleb, we appreciate spending time with you, on a day like today, we hope to have you back and talk to you about the outcome and what may come next, and we appreciate seeing you again. >> thank you very much >> thanks, nassim, appreciate it >> joe thanks, andrew still to come on "squawk box," england, the latest country to announce some new lock downs amid a rise in covid cases ryan air ceo michael o'leary blasting the move. he'll join us live next. need better sleep?

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welcome back, everybody. investors continue to go track the spread of the coronavirus in europe the uk becoming the latest country to return to a nationwide shut down to stem the

raise in cases nbc's sarah harmon joins us live from london. what can you tell us. >> reporter: hi, becky, good morning to you, new covid cases in europe have doubled in the last five weeks there are more than 10 million infections england of course is the latest country to enact a lock down along with germany, france belgium. the exact measures and time line vary depending on the country you're talking about generally what we're seeing is schools and day cares are allowed to remain open, while restaurants, bars, jigyms and hairdressers are shut down the infection rate was already beyond its worst case scenario there are now more than 1 million coronavirus cases in the u.k. with the colder months of the year, january, february, still

cotom. t -- to come the measures in england last until december 2nd there are fears that could be extended and impact christmas if the situation doesn't improve. becky. >> those covid restrictions in europe have had a big impact on the business of our next guest let's welcome ryan air's holdings ceo o'leary they rent cut the capacity by one-third because of the covid restrictions how are you? >> i've had better years how about you? >> same, i think everybody can say that just about this point in time, michael i know these restrictions have been a big deal. i know it is really impacted your business. what are you seeing right now, how frustrating is it? >> we cut our capacity to 40% of last year. we expect to operate with 70%

vectors, traffic this year move forward to at abest 38 million passengers down from 150 million last year. we're still doing better than almost any airline in europe we have been negotiating pay cuts, and more productivity with our people so that we can avoid job losses, and that's been a reasonably successful program. we put a lot of pilots, participating in government job support schemes, and we keep the pilots and cabin crew current, keep the planes operating, even if it's only one or two flights, so we can respond quickly in summer 2021 when hopefully vaccines are approved and become available in reasonable commercial quantities. >> we heard about the number of cases in europe, how things are spiking there, the cases doubling in the last five weeks. that has led to additional shut downs. do you take issue with that, michael? >> i don't at this point

the problem with the second wave of shut downs shows how ineffective the first shut down were lock downs don't give rid of the virus, they give the government and health services the means to put in place effective testing regimes. that's what we're missing in europe if you look at the u.k., they are testing up to 500,000 people a week, less than 1% of the population in ireland, 100,000 people a week it should be a million people a week effective mass testing is the only way to live with the virus to get on top of it. the second lock down is going to cost billions of euros in lost productivity and lost output a simpler solution would have been, you know, put in place mass testing get the private sector involved in the mass testing. you're testing 20% of the population on a weekly basis that's the way to chase down the

virus. in the meantime, i hope dr. fauci is correct that we will have one or two vaccines approved before christmas, and let's hope that we can produce enough of these vaccines in sufficient quantities to protect the highest groups, elderly, people working in health care and nursing homes in time for summer of 21 so people can travel again. >> testing is probably the answ answer we heard from nassim taleb if you're testing frequently, it helps the economy go forward we just heard from united airline last week they're going to start trials on select routes of having having passengers tested before they go places rapid testing in 20 minutes, somebody shows up 3 hours early for an international flight. are you considering doing that at ryan air, too >> i don't think so, but we certainly wouldn't rule it out i think what we're trying to do

is persuade european governments to have more mass testing. a lot of countries don't recognize the 20 minute antigen tests. they're not as reliable as the pcr. no restrictions, certainly in europe, no restrictions on short haul air travel in europe for those passengers who can demonstrate they have a negative test within 72 hours of departure. i think you're going to have chaos at the airports for people showing up for the tests what happens with a false read, i think that's a real challenge. a more logical medium term solution, mask testing, everybody gets tested within 72 hours of departure, and confirmation from your doctor, you tested negative. and european travel, i think we can go back without restrictions and quarantines. it's not so much the testing that's the challenge it's the government's constantly

changing the rules, bringing in a lock down, open up a lock down ten days ago, adding the canary islands to thiz green list for travel 14 times the normal vol, seven days later britain introduces a lock down where it says nobody can fly changing the industry. not the testing. >> i want to go back to the testing issue, and i appreciate the idea of mass testing and wanting the government to pay for it what i don't understand is why the airline industry given the confidence you need from customers to want to get on the plane, not just the next several months but a longer term issue post vaccine, potentially 12 month, 18, 24 months out, why the airlines are not saying we are going to invest in the testing ourself, some analysts have suggested it would cost you

40 to $50 more per ticket or whether you would want the government or push the government to effectively subsidize that if the airlines did something like this, it would act to some degree as a surveillance program that would benefits all of society. >> the broad economics, we can't fund a 40 euro tests the pcr are around 80 euros a pop. we can't do it our customers won't travel at 40 euros, the fare would become 120 euros. that's not going to work and putting the onus on the airlines to do the testing means the testing happens too late and you have too much kmuconfusion t airports what happens when you have milling around and, we have a positive case. it's a recipe for disaster

what we need is, and our economy needs is mass testing so you're testing 20% of your population on a weekly basis, you're testing the entire population every five or six weeks. you're identifying the people who have tested positive they isolate, and that's the ways economies get on top of this how do we reopen the restaurants, pubs, how do you get people back to some sort of normal life, and it's got to be mass testing i think you're a big negative on vaccine. go ahead >> i was just going to suggest, i don't disagree with mass testing, there are those in the united states at least to seem to not want to pursue a mass testing program for reasons that seem inexplicable to me. given the fact that for whatever reason mass testing doesn't seem to be on offer anytime soon,

whether or why the airlines, and i appreciate all the points you're making about, you know, the difficulties of doing this at an airport, and the confusion it could cause, i would think from a long-term perspective, irrespective of what happens we will be living with this in some way or another unfortunately i imagine for some time. >> i'm not as bearish as that andrew, i think if the vaccines become available in a 12 month period, there would be widely available vaccines the question at that point in time is will governments be able to lock down their economies where there is a vaccine available for the high risk groups if you can protect the nursing homes and elderly, why are people in 20 and 30 being told to lock down and not enjoy themselves they're not at risk from the covid virus. it's a virus that affects elderly and people with

underlying health conditions certainly in europe, governments will have no ability to lock down their populations if there is a vaccine available. >> you had me until the last point, why shouldn't 20 and 30-year-olds be allowed to go out, they bring it home and spread to other people, and that's where the spread is coming for the most part, if you go home and see your parents, go home and see your grandparents or anything along those lines, that's the cautious area right now. i think once you get a vaccine it's a different story i want to ask you something a little bit different, though you seem to be impacted, obviously it's a huge impact but you seem to be impacted slightly less than some of the carriers in the united states that we have talked to who rely so heavily on business travelers because they pay a premium i know that's because your model is different you're a budget airline, and you have a lot of consumers looking for lower prices we talked to doug parker from american, without the business traveler, they'll never be able to get back to the same level of

profitability for a long time. what's your outlook in terms of what it would take you to get back to the profit margins you have been looking to. >> i always mistrust people who say never ever, never is a long time we recover from the covid pandemic, you know, the spanish flu in 1918 lasted for 18 months, and they didn't have the technology we have today i think in europe, short haul, i mean, i do have sympathy for long haulis going to be affected for longer, and it is a much more high yield premium end of the business. in shorthaul travel around europe, i think there's going to be a spike back once the vaccine becomes available. i accept your point on the elderly, once the vaccine is available to protect the elderly, and people who work in the nursing homes, young people will not be locked up because they're not at risk for the virus itself i accept they will spread the at-risk groups. >> i understand.

>> there's no reason for a lock down again in europe, they will come back there's huge pent up demand for air travel people will want to go back on holidays again families will want to start traveling again. there's lots of families split up by the covid virus, and i think thatwhat's going to happe we'll have a lower crawl space going forward. reduced labor, our airport costs, and we're in the scale of our aircraft, the boeing max is certified to go back into flight services, hopefully the end of november, early december, and there's lots of airports here in europe who have lost huge amounts of traffic because the latest have failed or grounded huge amounts of their fleet, and i'm very optimistic over the medium term. we here in europe, southwest in north america will be the first to respond very aggressively

with low fare stimulation, and lower costs, and we'll pass on the costs in the form of lauer fares and get people traveling again in a post vaccine environment. >> it's great to hear. you mentioned boeing, are you in talks to get planes from them. >> we are. and dave calhoun and his team are doing a phenomenal job of getting the max back in service, and the safety agencies. it looks like the grounded aircraft will be returning to service end of november, early december advanced new safety procedures, pilot training in place. we can't wait to take delivery of the max 200s in the spring 4% seats, burn 16% lower fuel. 40% lower noise. it's a game changer aircraft for us, and we are in discussions of talking about increasing the size of our order, and also compensation for the delayed

deliveries you know, we can't finalize negotiations until the aircraft goes back into service, and boeing can come up with a credible delivery schedule for us we still think it's a great aircraft boeing, you're a great manufacturer, and i think the max, much in the same way the 787 has problems with the lithium batteries. it's a great performer we can't wait to take delivery of it. >> michael, thank you, it's always great talking to you. we wish you the best of luck. >> you too, becky. you too, andrew. god bless. >> take care you too. when we come back mohamed el-erian still around at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.

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joining us now, mohamed el-erian, and president of queens college we just had michael o'leary on, making the point about lock downs, he has a business he's running, an airline. you can understand how he feels, and perhaps his frustration. he pointed out that even the w.h.o. isn't as positive about lock downs as they have been if the first one was effective, maybe there wouldn't be a second one. what is the mood over in the u.k. with the latest setback >> the mood is that not only do we have a lock down until early december but there's a high

probability it will be extendedment joextended joe, i think the most relevant insight for the u.s. is that the u-turn that was announced by prime minister boris johnson on saturday came from a government that first had opposed the lock down publicly. there's a huge political cost in implementing it. second, i believed that a regional approach would work and we have seen it u-turn, and that is important because at the end of the day, it turns out we don't have as many instruments and tools as we would like to have to recognize economic activity and public health. >> i don't know whether you're implying that such a u-turn is in the states or it was just more fertile ground for something happening in the u.k. i don't think that it is exportable across the atlantic,

what happened in the u.k., do you? >> so what is exportable is what we have learned about the second wave one is it spreads really quickly. two is it does lead to higher hospitalizations and death, and three, most critically, it completely overwhelms, the system in place. you fall further behind quickly. that's what's exportable i think the u.s. is much trickier if different states will do different states we don't what extent a private sector will become precautionary in its economic activity it is interesting that country after country in europe that wanted to avoid a lock down has ended up in a lock down. >> did i hear, what's your puppy's name, did i hear him bark

>> you heard bosa, even though i asked her not to >> that looks like a president's office i don't understand why you have that bust of robin williams behind you is that -- >> no, that was my economic teacher. >> never mind, i thought that was mrs. doubt fire. that's not mork and mindy, i don't know okay i believe you. which economics teacher, must be canes knowing you. >> you >> okay. all right. thanks, joe. thank, mohammed, give that dog a bone i love your pets and mine too. dimensional's david booth, he owns half a trillion in assets we're going to talk to him stay with us t-mobile's been building its 5g network for a moment like this.

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good morning, november begins with surging futures. we're looking at green across the board as we turn the page from an ugly october, the dow's worst since march. we're all going to be glued to social media on election night, but what's the responsibility of the biggest platforms out there during such an important event that conversation is coming up and on the ground in one of the most critical battleground counties in the nation, the road to the white house leads through there, and we're going to take you there. the final hour of "squawk box"

begins right now ♪ ♪ good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen, along with becky quick, and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures are sharply higher this morning and it's because, fill in the blank, yeah it's a roar shock. come up with your own scenario, election scenario, and say i actually did see something as we have seen before, guys, on days like this where the financial news writers when the market was down 150, as europe closes down, and then this morning when it was up 300 it was as europe closed, in the midst of europe closing down it's like down on 50 up to 50 it's like i was assigned this,

this is what's happening i have no idea that's what they should do, finally, don't pretend you know. friday was the final trading. >> it's mad libs. >> final trading day of rough october. dow closed off its low of the day but for the month the indetection windex was down 4.6%. the s&p lost 2.8% in october, and nasdaq down 2.3% treasury yields going the opposite of crude. treasury has been ticking up like i said, we're talking basis points, whether .6 is that different than .85 there it is. and crude oil thought it was solidly set at the fore handle is now all the way down under 35 wti, anyway, and that has to do with worries about economic weakness that could come from renewed lock downs, starting in europe and uk, and who knows

whether the rest of the world is going to follow suit becky. >> that's right, joe, let's get you caught up actually on the coronavirus pandemic and where things stand it's just one of several factors believed to have hit the markets hard last week there we go. the united states saw more than 73,000 new covid cases yesterday. according to the covid tracking project. on friday, the country actually saw a record number, nearly 100,000 cases in a single day. new infections have doubled to nearly 10 million total. germany initiating a partial shut down today with restaurants, bars, theaters, gyms and other facilities closed for what's being called the four-week wave break or shut down england will begin its own more strict lock down starting on thursday the u.k. is seeing more than 20,000 new cases each day. nonessential businesses will close for a month, and people won't will allowed outside except for a few things like necessary shopping or caring for vulnerable people.

andrew >> okay. thanks, becky. of all the swing states up for grabs, michigan will be one of the most critical. if you want to win michigan, you're almost certainly going to need to win one particular county that's where we find brian sullivan this morning. brian. where are you? >> reporter: well, we are in grand rapids, which is the county seat of kent county, one of two counties that you're going to have to win, to your point. you're going to have to win kent, mccomb, maybe a couple others but those have enough to move the needle. biden was here this weekend. trump is supposed to come tonight. this was trump's last campaign stop the night before the election in 2016 the mitten is important to the election as they say, and its 16 electoral college votes. to give you an idea of the swing from 2012 to 2016, this is truly amazing when you dig in the numbers, guys, donald trump won michigan by 10,704 votes,

basically 1/10 the capacity of the university of michigan's football stadium put that in context. obama beat romney in 2012 by 450,000 votes. it was primarily that worker, that union worker, rural worker, who flipped who has been a lifelong blue democrat, but from the union side where trump's pro american manufacturing type message obviously resonated. the question is will that message still resonate or will the frustration of what may have happened over the last four years, still mafnufacturing jobs not coming in force, will that send the union democrat back to blue, if you will, joe biden certainly hoping so. by the way, guys, it's mind blowing watching television here watching football yesterday. i'm not joking, no sullivan hyperbole here, every commercial break was three political ads, maybe once a quarter, you get a mcdonald's ad.

it was trump, biden, john james, jerry peters, senate candidates, by the way, that's a big race. i have never seen it more, 130 million spent on political ads in michigan so far >> brian, a couple of questions for you. justearly read on voter turnou thus far where you are >> reporter: well, it's huge now, they don't have in-person early voting, andrew, but because of covid, you might have heard about this global pandemic, they're allowing basically absentee ballots to be submitted. it's like if you were a michiganer who lived in europe, you can get your mail-in ballot. a couple million have been requested. wisconsin, they did have early in-person voting, and the numbers keep going up. i believe it's over 3 million that have already been requested, and about 2.2 million that have been turned in it's a big number. >> brian, i know all of the

policy stances for john james and gary peters. you know why because i watched the michigan/michigan state game and i'm watching it back here in new jersey and every single break, i mean, it's smart, right. that, you know, classic match up, which was amazing, because michigan state actually won, and they got beat by rutgers, go figure that out. every single ad was the senatorial race. in michigan, back here in new jersey, it was like, i can't vote, they will low, i'm not voting in michigan why are you trying to sway many on the michigan senatorial race. but they thought, you know, i'm going to buy some ads on this really big game on saturday. >> i don't know how big of a game it was for harbaugh it might have been his swan song, can't lose to michigan state at home. that said, this is a senate race that you bring up, peters versus james, and our viewers outside of michigan are like who are you talking about, john james is an

african-american veteran running on the gop ticket. coming back with a push in the senate peters holds a lead in the polls. biden holds a 6 to 7 point lead on average in the polls. remember, the polls were off 4 to 5% in 2016. the pollsters said they fixed methodologies. this is a big year not only for the senate but polling in general. if the polls are as wrong as they were four years ago, it's not going to be a good look. i don't know >> it's funny the way they say either trump drags john james across or biden drags peters across it really does matter on the way everything seems to go i guess there could be divergences from that. people say there's tail winds or head winds based on who's at the top of the ticket. we'll see kwhawhat happens >> and we'll be all day in the mitten today, guys, a very important state. tomorrow as well.

>> gary peters, one heck of a family guy i'm telling you, he has been thinking about health care his entire life. that's all i can tell you. they got to me thanks be sure to join. be sure to catch cnbc election day coverage all day tomorrow. special coverage beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern that will continue overnight into wednesday morning. i might just stay up we're going to have a four-hour special edition of "squawk box" beginning at 5:00 a.m. eastern it's a huge week for social media, and if you thought these companies were under the microscope before, prepare to watch their every move get dissected in the next few days we come back, we're going to speak to the ceo of parlor we were talking about parlor earlier, right relatively new player in the industry but the latest twitter stuff has people talking about it the stocks leading the dow higher this morning. right there. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on bccn

welcome back to "squawk box," happy monday morning, the futures are indicated higher this morning in fact, the dow up by almost 400 points, and that's off the

highest levels of the session, when we were up by 500 but a reversal from where the futures indicated last night s&p futures indicated up by 41, nasdaq up by 100 before the break, we showed you the biggest dow premarket gainers. take a look at the stocks leading the s&p 500 higher this morning. you see at the top of the list is nielsen holdings, estee lauder, cardinal health and rounding out that list. >> joe >> it is the final push to election day, both campaigns are trying to woo senior citizens. in 2016, more than one in four votes was made by this critical demographic, and con ses tessa r from cnbc joins us from the villages in central florida with more on how the senior vote is being mobilized. beware, i believe you're near a golf cart crossing keep your eyes opened.

>> reporter: they're everywhere. i have learned, joe, you don't stop for the golf carts, the golf carts stop for you. i got honked at a lot for that yesterday. this place, i'm seeing it. it's like a perpetual playground for the comfortably retired. it is a bastian of republican sentiment. and in florida in general, joe biden is outspending donald trump almost by 2 to 1 he's spending almost $200 million here. trump's campaign, a little more than a hundred million, and in the villages where you would not expect to see such staunch trump advertising spend, it's here anyway the president, in fact, has made a campaign stop here as has mike pence, and yet we talked to people who say you're starting to see signs of biden enthauz yach -- enthusiasm

we talked to a guy who every week for the past two years has been waving signs, denouncing trump and encouraging people to vote for biden. >> i'm going to continue on trying to get democrats to step forward and become a little braver around here i bought about 120 signs that say village democrats are here to stay, and i'm hoping that i get 120 people here to put one of those signs on their golf cart. >> reporter: now, seniors nationally, the latest nbc "wall street journal" poll shows that they're splitting for biden, 58% to 35% but in florida, again, where the senior vote is so crucial, more than half of the voters in florida are boomers are older, in florida, the latest intel poll shows it is split right down the middle, 47 to 47%

between democrats and republicans. >> florida, why does that sound familiar to me oh, yeah, the land of the hanging chads, the land of -- >> reporter: africaof course i o the election night that would never end. >> 38 day election night i know >> reporter: you know, the thing is, joe, down here, the county supervisor of elections say they have got this down to a science, and what we're going to see in spite of recent hiccups as late as 2018, you saw problems here, and with voter registration, they crashed the system but the county supervisors of elections say this is down to a science because of the early counting of the ballots that have come in. they expect an answer, they expect the answer to be very clear on election night. >> from your lips, we'll see contessa thank you. be careful down there, as i

said, because a lot of them are electric, and you can't hear them coming, like a tesla. thanks i'm talking about the golf carts. social media companies have been seeing heavy scrutiny in the run up to tomorrow's election facebook and twitter apps are taking steps aimed at tamping down misnsinformation, but they have faced criticism from the content decisions they have made here's twitter's ceo, ned seigle with us on friday. >> there will be different perspectives about the principles and the choices that we make when we try to inform the public conversation with different perspectives, the best thing to do is to be clear about the policies and enforce them transparently, so people know what they can expect from the services. >> i saw a great quote joining us to discuss social media and the election, ceo and founder of the social network

parlor ceo jack dorsey explaining why twitter did certain things decisions made under policies that are subsequently changed and published can be appealed if the account at issue is a driver of that change i wonder whether you have a similar policy in effect is that crystal clear, clear as mud, isn't it, john. >> thank you for having me on. i have no where had what that means frankly, but that's pretty normal it seems over there one of the things that their cfo mentioned on friday is they're trying to gain trust you don't do that when you're social media, a town square, parlor, we're a neutral town square that's why people trust us so muff much so much back peddling, it's not a good way to earn trust with your user base >> thinking of you trying to

take advantage, build out your, you know, your footprint, could anything better have happened to you? you must be thanking the new york post for doing that laptop story. >> well, the new york post getting kicked off of twitter for quite some unreasonable amount of time did bring a lot of traffic to parlor 4 million new users this year, which is great for a company that only had half a million users going into the year, less than that. we're doing really really well, and yes, every time twitter or facebook takes authoritarian steps to curate content and act as publication, it drives people to our platform, which is a town square i don't know that i'm necessarily thankful because i'm not thankful of other people's kind of misfortune because it is unfortunate that they were -- their content was taken down off

twitter this close to the election but it did benefit us, yes, greatly. >> don't you have to define what you are? i mean if twitter is a publisher, what's the problem, why don't they just -- i have been watching twitter a long time, i see the news they collate. i see how they do everything i understand how they are, the mainstream media, most of the major newspapers, networks, they're honest with who they are. we should not be surprised by this if you know what you're getting, why does it matter for twitter >> i think they're nervous about the section 230 provision and a lot of pressure they're getting from politicians basically the idea is they're supposed to be a neutral platform and that allows them to not be liable for the content on their platform as a publisher if they were to be publicly defined as a publisher, which they are, there's no doubt about that, if they come out publicly defined as one, that could be a huge legal problem as they could lose

their section 230 provisions p parler we're not afraid. we don't curate content. they choose what they trust and don't trust. they follow and engage, we have organic fact checking, the old fashioned idea of comments and people talking to each other it's really just a basic concept of not being a publication that probably makes them nervous because they are and they're tried to hide from it. >> john, two questions for you, one is there is a number of people in the senate and in congress that have suggested breaking up facebook, suggested breaking up google, some of the big tech companies in large part, they would say because of the censorship issue and the size and scale if the department of justice called you and said is facebook and twitter and some of these other social networks, do they have a monopoly that makes it anticompetitive to your franchise, you would tell the department of justice what

>> i think parler is evidence that we can compete with them. i'm not sure about google. that's its own beast, if you will, but in terms of twitter and facebook, we have encroached a little bit on the space of facebook, and mostly on twitter. we have been very successful and i think that there is opportunity to compete if we still have our section 230 liability protections, if we still have, you know, a conversation about competition i'm afraid of what happens when government gets involved in places like this and so we like the idea of competition. and going to this issue of 230, though, if that were to somehow get wiped away, in some ways, you have to be supporting mark zuckerberg and supporting jack dorsey, i would imagine because if 230 goes away for them, it goes away for you. >> well, not necessarily it depends on what they do with

230. because even using the current definition and the way everything's set up, they're not really following it. the ideas are supposed to be a neutral party providing a software service therefore they're exempted for liability for what people are talking about on the platform, so if it comes outs that they really are a publisher and they're not really, you know, their main focus isn't just as a social platform that they're also curating content that could become difficult for them to keep it. we on the other hand, who doesn't curate content, everything is chronological, you get what you come up for if you follow a bunch of people, you see content in the order you follow it. i think there could be a possibility where they could get theirs removed and we couldn't if it came down to it, they all losing it, and parler losing it, i think i would be in favor of keeping it for everybody rather than them losing it and us too. >> you had some comments, john, about twitter's future if this

continues le continues like this. do you think there could be a problem in one, two, three years if they continue to go down this path >> i don't know from a legal perspective, i do know from a users perspective, if they kick people off for having views they don't like, and curating which news sources are allowed on, it's not going to reflect well in their user growth numbers it will reflect well for our user growth numbers, though, at parler >> if president trump or vice president biden scratch that if president trump were to say something about twitter didn't like, i'm sure biden would be fine, if president trump did about the election, and whether he was winning or not, do you think twitter at that point would decide okay, we're filing in the center, i guess they have done it a little bit before, do you think they would decide

we're not going to publish that? >> i think they have in the past thrown labels over has content and asked him to remove it i think they would do it going forward. the big thing they're talking about right now on facebook, twitter, as well as i believe you tube has said this too, i'm not certain on that one is that they don't want any presidential candidate speculating that they won the election online on that night. and that for me is scary you know, they should be able to say whatever they want, whether it's vice president joe biden or it's president trump, both of them should have a right to speculate all they want on election night, and that's what we're going to allow >> are we catching you early, like where parler is that the beginning of a big zz top beard you got going there, or. >> no, i do not plan on growing out a zz top beard. >> thought we got you three months early

>> in three months it will only be like a 1/4 inch longer, anyway, but thank you very much. >> that other one, you know, i don't know, whatever, to each his own. thank you, we'll see you later. >> andrew. >> okay. coming up, when we return, the latest chapter in a debate we seem to be having every four years, do you change your investment strategy based on who wins the white house you'll want to hear what david booth has to say on that topic and more in the meantime, check out shares of clorox rising after beating estimates for it latest quarter in raising its full year sales forecast stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" right ren bche ocn

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still to come this morning, joe biden's tax plans. if you haven't been able to get all the specifics, don't worry, we're going to run them down for you, and weigh them against some programs of the past stay tuned, "squawk box" will be rit ck ghba

welcome back to "squawk box," president trump's calling joe biden's tax plan the largest increase in american history that's far from accurate robert frank joins us to set the record straight. >> good morning, andrew. joe biden's tax plan calling for raising federal tax revenues between 2 1/2 and 3 1/2 trillion dollar over the next decade.

president trump calling it the biggest tax increase in the history of our country now, as you mentioned by historical standards, biden's tax plan is big but hardly the biggest. there have been over 20 tax increases between 1940 and today. where during and after world war ii with the biggest in 1942 at over 5% of annual gdp. biden's plan would be about 7/10 of 1% of gdp in his first year, about the 10th largest in history. now, in the second year, it would be a little bit higher, about 1.5% of gdp. that would rang about 5th and make it about the largest since 1968 even if you looked over the ten-year period of the biden plan, it would rank about 5th. as for the overall tax burden, back to the about the levels of

1998 to 2000, so guys we have had a lot of tax increases this is a big number, 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 trillion, but certainly not the top, maybe in the top ten. >> what about the spending side of all of this, and do we know where biden's plan would rank in that respect historically. >> the best estimates on the spending side are about 5 1/2 trillion, and that would be the largest spending plan by a democratic candidate since 1972. it would put it at about 20 to 24% of gdp that is a big number, but we're at 30% of gdp now, so it would actually come down it's an extraordinary time, but i think that would bring it back to about the 1990s in terms of percentage of spending to gdp. all of these are large numbers, but again, put in history, they're not the largest.

>> okay. robert frank, great to see you as always, and a reminder to our viewers, tune into cnbc's election coverage all day tomorrow of course, and we will have special coverage starting at 7:00 p.m. eastern time running all night, into wednesday morning. "squawk box" picks it up at 5:00 a.m set your alarm or maybe just don't go to sleep. becky. >> andrew, thanks. joining us right now to talk more about both presidential candidates' tax plans and strategies is ben harris he served as chief economist to vice president biden, and mattie duppler who is national taxpayer union senior fellow. welcome to both of you a lot to talk about. ben, we'll start with you, definitely not the largest tax increase in history but a big tax increase at a time when the economy has been suffering because of covid how do you raise taxes when there's pressure on the economy. >> two things, this is not just a tax increase, it's also a tax cut. for people making less than

$400,000 a year, the tax policy center says it will cut their taxes by about a thousand dollars on average, $15,000 for first time home buyers, it is truly a tax reform because it gives a lot of people a tax cut. the second thing to remember is this is designed to pay for long-term investments, many of which are pro business, things like improved infrastructure, $400 billion for rcesearch and development, closing the divide. so again, it's not just a tax increase, it's a tax increase to pay for investments. >> what do you say to that, it's not just a tax increase, it's a tax redistribution, what does that mean for the economy as far as you're concerned? >> there are a number of things that have been confused in this conversation or the last several months biden is proposing tax increases that would hit people making less than $400,000

80% of which is folks who make less than $50,000 a year changes to social security, those taxable maxes on wages, that would rise over time. that would eventually eat up more and more income for folks making less than $400,000 a yore i do think these tax hikes that the biden campaign is proposing on businesses is the most worrisome, particularly in an environment that is so uncertain. we got a huge q3 gdp print, we do not have the assurances that q4 of 2021 are going to look as strong as the american economy this would be a huge departure from vice president biden and president obama were in 2008, and 2009 president obama said you don't raise taxes into a recession what businesses need in the united states is more certainty, particularly on the tax side, raising the corporate tax rate, top marginal rates where business income reports its taxes, that would be extremely harmful in this very uncertain environment. >> ben, that's a fair point.

do you think these tax increases would go in place right away >> so the vice president has said that he wants to put the corporate tax increase, the rate of 21% to 28%, which is lower than it was from thelate 1980s to 2017. he wants to put that in place soon but the point here is that, look, you can look at independent analysis and i agree with the comment that our economy is hurting, we need bold action you can look at analysis coming out of moodies, warden, president trump's alma mater found the biden plan would grow the economy by a trillion dollars over the first term. i agree the economy is hurting and we need a plan to get it back on track. >> that doesn't get to the heart of the matter if you raise taxes on businesses while the economy is hurting, what does that do to business income, and what does that do to the revenue that the treasury department is going to take in? >> it's not taxing just to tax it's taxing to put in place a massive infrastructure plan, will add 18.6 million jobs

the vice president wants to add $400 billion in procurement for american manufacturers the idea is we want to grow the economy, a pro-business plan here, but he doesn't want to leave huge deficits in its wake. it does raise the corporate tax, again, well below its historical levels and uses the revenue from that for investments that will grow the economy. >> it sounds so great. why don't we just keep raising taxes, raising them and raising them and get more and nmore job, if that does happen, you really believe what you're saying so the higher the taxes, the more jobs we create. >> that's not really a fair comment. this is not a slippery slope nobody is arguing for 70% tax rates. nobody is arguing for 50% tax rates. >> just the right amount will add all of these jobs. >> yeah, so look at warden's analysis, people making

400,800,000, their taxes would go from 28% on average to 28.5%. that is nota huge tax increase >> we're talking about businesses mostly, and how is it that that is going to cause businesses to actually hire more people by raising their taxes? if you have historical precedence for that, ben >> yeah, i mean, you guys just pointed out this would bring us back to the late '90s, which was a terrific period for growth, far better than the past four years. look, we talk to business leaders all the time it's not just about taxes. they want to see investment in research they want customers who can go ahead and boy their goods, they want people to go in the economy, workers who feel safe being in the workplace it's not just about taxes. it's about a healthy economy, a balanced economy, and that's what this plan aims to do. >> what about the argument for spending on infrastructure, that is something that both sides of the aisle have been saying they want for a long time >> that's right. remember, it's always

infrastructure week. but you know, the challenge that vice president has with his plan is that, you know, i think robert frank said about 5 trillion in new spending our analysis at national taxpayers union is it's much higher than that, probably 1.3 trillion in new spending every year the tax plan that biden has put forward doesn't come close to cover that ben said that vice president biden isn't interested in raising deficits, there's no way he can provide for that kind of spending without raising deficits or making up for that spending elsewhere on taxes on middle income earners. what democrats have been talking about in terms of spending plans over the course of the presidential campaign, and even saying they can pay for it just taxing businesses and high income earners, that's simply not the case the taxes are paid for by middle income earners across the rest of the world in countries with spending burdens similar to what vice president biden is proposing in his plan. >> just to clarify, robert said about 5 1/2 trillion dollars in spending that was the number he used but

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welcome back to "squawk box," in case you have been living under a rock, a reminder, tomorrow is election day not only is an important day for american democracy, it could be a huge catalyst for the financial markets but that doesn't necessarily mean portfolio changes are your best move joining us right now in an exclusive interview is dimensional founder and chairman david booth, his firm oversees half a trillion dollars in assets great to see you we have been talking all morning about what the world looks like potentially in 48, 72 hours from now and to the extent that investors are trying to think about how they should be positioning their portfolio, how to do it, you suggest that that's not the way to think about it >> well, that's right. well, first off, thanks for having me. it's going to be a very exciting week, and be interesting to see what happens look, i have been in this business 50 years, and been

analyzing data every which way you know, our philosophy is that you ought to have investment philosophy that you can stick with, you know, through thick and thin, and stick to your plan, unless you have compelling evidence so what we do is we like to look at the data, and we have almost 100 years of data now in stock and bond returns in the u.s. and, you know, what the data show is there really isn't a meaningful difference in investment returns if the president is democrat or if it's republican so in our view, there's no compelling evidence to make portfolio shifts based on your forecast of election outcome >> tell me if i'm wrong, though, i think some of the -- tell me why that is, but unless i'm wrong, oftentimes the statistic you hear cited is that over the years actually that the stock market has done better under

democratic presidents than republican presidents. is that not correct? >> what i was hoping to say is there's not a meaningful difference you're always going to get some rate of return difference, but i don't think it's particularly meaningful, not compelling enough to make you want to shift your portfolio around based on whatever the slight difference is yeah, i mean, what i get from the data is what's really important is american ingenuity. we have had a lot of tough times, a lot of good times, and what seems to be the case, what's propelling those stock returns over the long haul, stocks about 10% a year, and what's propelling that, i think, is, you know, companies, you know, with people working to better themselves and their lives and the lives of their customers, that's what's really causing the market to grow over

time we often see this crazy world -- >> so david, looking at data right now in terms of where we are within the context of the pandemic, where we are in terms of joblessness, growth, or lack of growth, you're looking at the next two or three years to look like what based on the data? >> well, every year i approach the upcoming year saying i think next year the expected return is going to be about 10%, and then i recognize at the same time over a two-year period, you know, the market could lose 50%. that's about once a generation it happens, and it does it in an unpredictable way, so i think there's no reason to expect, you know, a huge change in that in my view. i think if you look at what's, you know, happened recently, you know, one thing we can count on

is there's going to be a level of uncertainty regardless of who wins if you look at the vix or other measures of volatility, they're elevated now, and they are likely to stay elevated, you know, next year, regardless of who wins. >> but does the data suggest to you that the market is under valued, properly valued or over valued >> hey, you're talking to a guy who thinks it is always properly valued you know, that's in terms of investing your own money look, when you're investing, you're investing in companies not political parties, particularly so, you know, that's -- there's many factors to consider you mentioned several of them. that's why it's very difficult to forecast the outcomes based on political party so i'm trying to stay out of the political debate as much as i can here but that's what we say here, again, vote with your ballot and not with your life savings

>> we'll take that to the bank david booth, great to see you. thank you so much. >> thank you >> you bet joe? thanks, andrew let's get to cnbc headquarters in a good mood you're up late watching it but maybe you're not because there's not as many, we're kind of easing off the earning season not like you have to get up at 2:00 and start combing through all the 400 stock. >> like the bengals we showed up. >> in the over >> in the fourth quarter we delivered but the most important thing was the refs delivered and no one really talks about the refs as being people who really just come out and play. and, you know, it was important there in philadelphia. i just felt there was a glow to it because there was a play that we won on that i think somehow it

was, i don't think there was a person there who thought what should have been called got called but that's okay. right? a w is a w >> yeah, sometimes i get frustrated with all the checking things out but they seem to be getting many more things right did you see the punches thrown in the one game, jim did you happen to see that were you watching that game when it was on? >> no. >> the guy got immediately ejected but it looked like ty n tyson. it was unbelievable. >> you got the best quarterback in the league right now. other than russell >> your guy is so brilliant. and it's just so great because we want him. i don't know why we root for him. i don't know why i'm watching the bengals and loving them. >> because we remember we remember how he was last year couple of those games, right you know what, notre dame, clemson. we're going to get in trouble probably notre dame, clemson without trevor that ruins things

>> i know. i know but, you know what, when we're talking covid we have to talk testing. an unbelievable number last week talk about a company that may be a fantastic stock to own this week because both sides need it. no one is against testing. no one is against testing and lab corp had an incredible quarter. i use lab corp every week. but i do think that we are at one of the moments where the futures shouldn't be up as much as they are. >> really. are the futures telling us anything about election outcomes at this point? >> there's just a lot of people who don't know what they're doing. they're bidding the futures up what's their game? i mean, i know that david will come in and explain it to me, but i think david's getting miced now but it's another joke. why were they down so much there's just a feeling that we got oversold but you know what,

it's based on nothing, joe because nobody knows anything. >> yes, sir. jim, i was at one of your favorite spots where you eat outside and ate inside i ate inside and a certain table and it was great >> outside it is like vienna the whole street is losed. it's just fabulous the only good thing from the pandemic is outdoor dining >> you need those nice little heaters, too all right, cramer, a wide ranging discussion we'll see you in a couple minutes. bec. >> thanks, joe. stocks on the move ahead of the opening bell stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box. this is cnbc hey, dad!

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little more than half an hour to go dom has a look at the stocks on the move and interesting enough to watching the futures morning. >> at one point when we handed the show over to you we were up 500 points it was huge. so, i mean, listen, a whole bunch of stuff happening and the markets outside of the big macro picture the second busiest week of earning season and a big week of corporate catalysts the election tomorrow.

but let's start off here with shares of clorox which are higher by nearly 4% right now. 38% of volume premarket. bleach, also its cleaning products, as well as kingsford charcoal and brita water filters. boosted its full-year sales forecast because customers continue to stock up on disinfectants to stop the spread of covid next up shares of estee lauder that are 4% higher and this is the cosmetics and personal care company. better than expected profits and sales. overall profits, though, lower than the same time last year because people spent less on makeup and perfume because of the pandemic but skin care sales growth helped off set that decline and estee lauder raised quarterly dividend and those shares up 4% end on waste management which is down less than a percent and around 2,700 shares of volume and better than expected profits

and revenues the company was held by better cost management and expect profit margins to come in than previous guidance. i'll send things back over to you guys >> all right, dom, thanks a lot. we told you before and we're going to tell you again. don't miss cnbc election dayive coage tomorrow starts with special coverage of the returns at 7:00 p.m. eastern time and running all through the night and when we say all through the night, we miean all through the night. 24 hours all the way around. "squawk box" pick it up on wednesday morning an hour earlier at 5:00 p.m. we'll watch along the way and watching the market's reaction to all of this we've seen the markets with the futures up sharply and as dom mentioned up as many as500 points a few hours ago what's happening with europe right now you will see for the trading in session there, things have been higher through much of

the morning. gains across the board guys, i don't know what you're thinking with this, but i think, jim, joe, you both kind of nailed it early on today when you were talking about who knows why this is up. >> all i know. i just heard from tirico and after this week we need a big event on saturday. tune in to nbc for that. we all need a break, don't we? from this. but tuesday we'll know, i guess. >> it is andrew, joe, see you back here tomorrow. see all of you then, too right now time for "squawk on the street." >> good monday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla looking to start november with a bounce election week is finally here and throw in some earnings and fed. jobs number into the is going to be busy. another