sit on your hands and wait. >> see what happens with election day. >> yeah. >> shannon, what do you have for us >> striker, orthopedic procedures are going to pick back up again. it's a great place to add some exposure to health care coming into the year. >> keep your eyes on stocks. just note for you one more time, that the nasdaq was positive it's now gone negative by a smidge but nonetheless a story to follow. that does it for us. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott, and hi, everyone, on this election eve i'm kelly evans. with less than 24 hours to go until the polls close and a whole lot at stake for your money, from tech regulation to taxes to energy policy, there's a lot riding on tomorrow's outcome, not least the fate of the next stimulus bill as the covid outbreak worsens the dow and s&p are rebounding today after the worst week for the major averages since march like scott just said the nasdaq unable to hold its earlier gains. it's gone negative by a couple of points now. we'll look at why and delph into all the possible outcomes for stocks over the coming days and

weeks. let's get the markets set up this hour. bob pisani standing by with more for us bob? >> reporter: and kelly, it's very interesting midday action it looks to me like the market is choosing to believe stimulus and reopening is going to be actually happening,ine though there's issues with that, and they are playing down the work-from-home stories let me just show you today in the middle of the day we were positive openings on all the sectors, including tech, but in the middle of the day we went negative on nasdaq, just a short while ago. that's very, very interesting. dow still holding up s&p is holding up although it's 30 points below where it was earlier in the day reopening plays. i'm talking retailers like gap, under armour, tapestry as well as some industrials like united rentals. those are all reopening plays. they have been holding up very well today other reopening plays holding up parts of the travel and entertainment area, parts, hotels are holding up, visas are holding up

master card is holding up, live nation airlines are not we're heard a lot about discount fares. the airlines are the only part of travel and entertainment not holding up what's not holding up also in the middle of the day, tech. they are selling tech. largely a work-from-home story but mega cap tech, apple, mike ron, apple, facebook, all underperforming since after the first half hour ever trading or so also underperforming, all the other big stay-at-home names so successful in the last six or seven months, your zooms, your slack, your docusigns, all of them underperforming bottom line, guys, they are playing for a stimulus story right here and downplaying the work from home back to you. >> it's a strange one, bob it's a fascinating trade we'll talk more about it thank you so much, bob pisani. we have stocks overall starting november strong, but investors are still puzzling over what the election will bring. you also have bond yields which have been rising since bottoming around half a percent back in august even last week while stocks sold

off the yield on the ten-year perked up. right now around 0.86% what does this all tell us, and do the markets have different ideas what have this election holds? let me ask our market guest today. bob michaels, cio and head of jpmorgan asset management, doug ramsey cio of the luthal group and we have the ceo of boca capital partners great to have you all here bob, a quick thought on a lot of disconnects that we're seeing here what do you make of the fact that the selloff in stocks last week came with rising bond yields what is the bond market telling us right now >> hi, kelly the bond market is telling us that investors are getting concern about the degree of modern monetary theory in the market or basically both the fiscal and the monetary authorities are working together to engineer a recovery, and everyone is looking at where the election polling is going, and if you have a blue wave, you could have a significant fiscal

spend funded by a lot of treasury debt, supported by a central bank which is buying it and keeping rates very low if that's the scenario, at some point the yield curve has to steepen because if the fed wants the 2% to 2.5% inflation, that scenario will give it to them. >> so, bob, you're basically saying the bond market is betting on a biden win, on a democratic senate and on a whole lot more spending that's coming than may be inflationary >> yeah. it seems like a lot of ifs, ands and buts there, but the polls are are the polls. yields have backed up a little bit, and if you sit there and think about a $2 trillion to $3 trillion stimulus and basically all the central banks are begging governments to borrow and spend. i never thought i'd see that i only thought the central banks are supposed to force austerity, but they learned from the great financial crisis

they want 2% to 2.5% inflation this is one path that gets you there. the market's got to start to price that in. >> all right so doug ramsey, let me turn to you. if that's the message that bob is gleaning from the bond market, what are you reading into the stock market? what do you make of the rally that we're seeing on this election eve and the cyclical, the somewhat cyclical nature of it in particular i mean, techs down today i mean, what does all that tell you? >> well, i don't disagree with the comment on mmt i mean, it's certainly very worrisome from a fiscal perspective, so i think that's part of this rotation. you know, i think some of it is just -- i mean, the incredible valuation gap between stay-at-home in which large-cap growth and tech in particular are the best examples. i just think that valuation gap has gotten so ridiculous that, you know, the best case scenario for large-cap growth to keep its premium relative to everything else, i mean, specifically large

value, mid-caps and small caps, is actually for the economy to sink into a double dip i mean, in that scenario, i think that obviously everything will go down, but that would keep this multiple premium up on the stay-at-home stocks and every other scenarios i mean, if we regularly work to reopen the economy, i think the valuation gap is ridiculous between the stay-at-home stocks and everything else. regardless of the outcome of the election, i think you're going to continue to see a rotation in that direction i do think though that a biden win coupled with the senate flipping over to the democrats would hasten that rotation i mean, for example, i think we -- in that scenario, we'd get a partial if not full repeal of the corporate tax cut. i mean, that would hurt the large-cap stocks and especially large-cap growth because they got earnings i mean, small caps, a lot of

them, 35% don't have earnings so at the margin it's much less in small caps >> i want to take your comments on tech and ask kim about that because i want to make sure everybody caught that. doug said if you want big tech to perform well you need a double-dip recession which i don't want that outcome, burr it's interesting to me, kim, if that's the only way big tech can do well. i don't know if you would agree withna i know you've been a longtime fan of a lot of names in the sector i mean, how would you expect tech to perform? does it depend on the outcome? does it depend on the pandemic, or are these stocks that should be winners in the new economy period >> well, i think it depends on what tech you're talking about if you're talking about the ones that are in legislative targets like facebook and google, i think some of that pressure might end up in the stock, but just as tech in general, i think

you really have to understand how it's used and what drives growth look, whether we're saying at home or working in offices, our employers want to have the most productive team out there, right, so what gives that productivity, technology so there's some technology that will be growing and in demand, and that's because it gives you productivity stay at home, let's talk about that sorrow, covid, not politics has brought that to us, and i think a lot of businesses are now looking at the footprint of their existing businesses and saying we could probably have smaller offices and move people in and out of working places, so that is going to shift people's -- how they spend their money, and it's going to end up in tech to enable those productive workers, so i think if you look at -- >> kim can, i just have to -- >> oh, sorry go ahead.

>> let me just say this because our time is winding down and i want to ask you about this specifically because i haven't seen you since kind of the intel, what do we call it, it face plant. >> right >> as you're describing the productivity enhancing companies that you would stick, and you and i have talked a long, long time about intel being one of your favorite value or technology plays, are you in or out of the stock are you out of the stock, throwing in the towel? >> no, not yet do i like the way the chips are just kind of coming together with psi links being bought by amd and arm being bought by nvidia it's a super exciting time i think intel, especially with their new ceo, they will a shot but they really have to ramp up their game and i'm still in just because of the assets of that company. >> you've had a strong stomach had to ask you about that and

appreciators's thoughts on what the stock market is telling us, where you should be investing right now. thank you all. we'll check pack in soon. since the spring we've been tracking the swing states pretty closely and we've seen big changes in four key areas that could tell us something about the outcome tomorrow night steve liesman joins me now with with a closer look at what those areas are. steve? >> reporter: kelly, the 16, count them, 16 states of place surveys in the key battleground states have long shown a lowers race in voter polls. let's get to the key chafrmts since the spring former president joe biden has held a lead over president trump on handling the coronavirus, a lead that's widened as we've neertd election and then take a look at this if you overlay on top of this, looks -- it widens biden's lead over president trump in the

battleground standing on 5% in average on arizona, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, north carolina and ohio. it stabilized at the last poll o.covid has become more important, dramatically so over time respondents' personal connection to covid, do you know somebody or have you had covid yourself has increased from 71% to 76% while we're polling. biden's net favorability steadily risen president trump, still saw a drop in the spring, might have been connected with the death of george floyd it also bounced a bit around the republican convention, but never fully recovered where it had been one final look on election day the president could benefit from improving views on the economy those rating the economy excellent or good has been increase heading into the final days of the election, but not enough to overturn the pessimism compared to the optimism question whether the president can make this more about the economy and chip into biden's favorability rating what he's been trying to do on the campaign trail

for biden it's about how much he can make this about covid and the president's handling of it we'll find out tomorrow, kell de we have the final states in play, battleground survey and later that night, guess what, some actual election results kelly? >> hopefully, maybe. steve, thank you very much we look forward to that tomorrow t.steve liesman. if the polls are right about a bide ebb win that would seem to leave little chance of a lame duck stimulus bill before the end of the week but if a covid deal continue to get worse could a bipartisan deal happen joining me is the chief economist at pantheon economics and michael strain is with the american enterprise institute. welcome to you both. michael, let me is that right with you what do you think it the odds are of a stimulus bill coming if we maybe game out different scenarios. in what scenario would it be most likely to happen before the end of the year and in what scenario would it be least likely, do you think >> i guess the most likely scenario is the scenario where

president trump wins re-election and the republicans hold senate because that kind of freezes in place a political status quo that makes the election less important and that makes the turnover to a new congress and new presidential term in january less important i don't think that's going to happen i mean, i think, well, you know, like everybody else, that the smart money is on vice president biden winning. the least likely scenario i guess is the flip of that. if there are big gains for the democratic party in the senate, if the party expands its majorities in the house, if japanese biden gets elected tomorrow, you know, then i think there's going to be a lot of -- a lot of pressure in the democratic party to just hold off and wait until january to -- to pass another stimulus bill. >> say that again, michael in the event of a biden win you think the pressure would be to hold off and obviously they would have to wait until they

get the senate in and everything go ahead. >> i think the pressure would be to hold off until after vice president biden is sworn in as president in late january. there would just be a lot of pressure in the democratic party to say, hey, let's wait a couple of months and -- and design the bill that we would -- that we would want to design >> ian, let me ask you about that, especially because does it is matter what that margin is, so the senate is 51-49 democratic versus more than that if it -- and obviously we have to keep asking the question, you know, what if that anticipated outcome doesn't happen do you see a scenario in which even with a blue wave that covid gets bad enough, ian, that there's motivation, bipartisan motivation to say we've just get to get something passed here while we can. >> i mean, it's possible heaven forbid, we could be at 200,000 covid cases a day within

a couple of weeks from now i think we're likely to see the number of people in hospital above the peaks that we saw in the summer and in the spring by thanksgiving, and we're going to see a steady increase in the number of people in icus all the numbers are deteriorating. i can't really see anything good in the covid data so that should in an ideal world or in a normal world that should result in a policy response, but we have to contend here with the politics, with the small "p" of the lame duck session of congress, and it will depend i think substantially on -- on the attitude of some of the republicans who are vulnerable in 2022, and i know it's painful to be starting to think already about the mid terms, but i promise you the people who are up for re-election in 2022 are thinking about it hard and there's a bunch of vulnerable republicans in 2022 who may put a lot more pressure on mcconnell to bring a covid relief bill in the lame duck session than they were prepared to bring before the election, so there's still a really great unknown here over

the attitude of senate republicans to passing something-in-the-face of horrible covid numbers during the lame duck session. i'm prepared to be open minded here because i think there's a lot of possibilities still. >> you're saying it's like possible, like the jim cary lines. you're saying i have a chaps would you put the adds at 1 in a million, or would you say they are a little higher than that? >> i think they are better than, that much better than that if mcconnell has just lost the senate to it the democrat majority he will be thinking very hard about how he can win it back in 2022 it, and the great irony here is if you asked republicans six months ago if they thought they would lose the senate in 2020, they shade no chance we're worried about '2 it because that's when there's a lot more vulnerable senators up for re-election. they are losing it in 2020 when they didn't expect it the and facing a very difficult map in

2022 if they want to win the senate back if mitch mcconnell wants to win the senate back they will have to think differently. they will have to do something differently. that doesn't mean they will start playing nice and cooperating with biden by think to doing nothing if we're hitting really horrendous covid numbers is going to generate a great deal of material for attack ads from the democrats for a time to come i'm not ruling it out. >> michael, before we go, since we had a big shock with the outcome relative to the roles, anything tell you that that might be possible here, a trump win or republican senate based on i think the iowa poll that narrowed over the weekend, the pittsburgh paper endorsing the president, the first time they have endorsed a republican in a couple of decades time, some of the turnout that we've seen at the rallies, not float floridas, on the road, the highway caravans, i mean, does anything to you suggest that or maybe tell us kind of where you would put the odds of an upset here? >> oh, you know, i would say the

president has something like, you know, a 25% to 35% chance of winning tomorrow i mean, it certainly could happen i think everything would have to break right for him, but if you look at the polls in florida if you look at north carolina, if you look at some polls out of pennsylvania, the president's in striking distance and there's, you know, a lot baked into those polls about turnout models, but i think that among public opinion experts there's some concern that it's just really hard to -- to figure out who is a likely voter in the middle of a pandemic with, you know, record -- with potentially record turnout and with a lot of voting already done, and so i think the -- you know, the smart money is on biden, but i don't think it's a foregone conclusion >> 25% is better than 1 in a million in terms of long shots thank you both, today. really appreciate it, checking in on this election even

mike al strain and ian shepardson watch cnbc tomorrow evening for special coverage of the 2020 election hour money, your vote beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern and going all night long. coming up here, weighing on americans' minds, progress has been made with remember jenneron treatments but supply remains low. what that meals. plus, tax trouble f.president trump's tax cuts are repealed, a number of stocks in the sector could take a hit to earnings we've got the names and the numbers ahead on "the exchange." ♪

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welcome back to "the exchange." regeneron's covid antibody drug has proven effective in helping people but if it got fda clearance today there wouldn't be a sufficient supply of t.meg tirrell is outside of remember jenneron's headquarters with more on this story for us. meg? >> reporter: hi, kelly well remember jenneron began work on this antibody drug way back in january, and the progress it's made has really been in record time, but the problem is that it's an incredibly complex drug to manufacture, that end-to-end for each batch takes three to four months now the reason is this drug is actually manufactured in living cells, cells that come from the ovaries of chinese hamsters, now

that sounds crazy, but that's actually a pretty common way of manufacturing these biotech drugs, so they are grown up in these bioreactors that look like a beer brewery but much cleaner, so the length and complexity of that process is why regeneron right now only has 50,000 doses that would be available if they got the green light from the fda. they hope to get that up to 300,000 within a few months, and they have partnered with roche to get to 2 million next year but folks like scott gotlieb say the government should have been investing earlier in ramping up the supplies along with the companies. i did speak with one doctor about this, and you can see the investment that operation warp speed has put into vaccines is more than $10 billion whereas for therapeutics it's less than $2 billion, but he noted that many more people are going to get vaccines than their pikts, and he pointed out they have been focused on that space, but, kelly, this is going to be a problem, and this drug will have to be rationed if it gets approved soon. back over to you >> did you say cells that come

from the ovaries of chinese hamsters, meg? >> i did they are alcohol cho cells, chinese hamster ovary cells. >> being a does eli lilly have similar problems with kind of expanding production as quickly because they have a similar drurg right? >> that's absolutely right, and they say they have 100,000 doses but theirs is a single anti-body and regeneron is two antibodies and they have to make double the supply and eli lilly has partnered with amgen so you're seeing the cross-industry partnerships to get this done and even so we still don't have enough >> that's wild meg, we appreciate it. wish it was better news, but hopefully they can find some way to ramp this up more quickly meg tirrell at regeneron for us today. let's look at what's happening overseas are all the hockdown lights so-called in europe a preview of what could be coming to the u.s. in the months ahead? germ anything, france and at uk are entering into various

degrees of a lockdown as cases continue to rise there italy continues to tighten restrictions as cases rise as well and nbc's bill neely is live in rome with us for the very late. hi, bill >> reporter: hi, kelly yes, the second wave sweeping across europe and right now leer in rome the italian government is meeting to discuss what measures it libt dues probably coming into force on wednesday the prime minister guiseppe conte gave broad hints of what italians can expect in parliament this afternoon, and surprisingly some of the measures are actually lighter than italians had been expecting, but the hardest hit areas, milan and naples, two of italy's three biggest cities, there's likely to be kind of a mini lockdown in those cities, and there will be some national measures as well, all museums are likely to be closed as of later this week. transport would be cut by about 50%. shopping centers will be closed

over the weekend, and so on. for some people, especially health experts, these measures are too little too late. they have been calling for a national lockdown and for other people they are too much business is still protesting at these measures and milan's governor, for example, saying he doesn't want to impose a lockdown on his city there should be a national lockdown, so guiseppe conte is trying a regional approach that's exactly what the british prime minister boris johnson has tried for weeks. over the weekend he abandoned, that and he's been in parliament and his parliament this afternoon explaining why from thursday england will have a full national lockdown again, like conte he said he didn't really want to do it, but he had to do it. otherwise the health system would be overwhelm it won't be a full lockdown like britain experienced in march, april because schools, colleges, universities, for example, will be allowed to stay open and just

like guiseppe conte borings johnson is facing pressure from within his own party and from business leaders saying, hey, this is just too much, and, of course, from health experts who as much as six weeks ago were advising the government that a lockdown was needed, so these two countries trying different approaches, but as i said at the beginning, second wave, sweeping across europe. some countries are really badly hit. france especially. the czech republic has one highest death rates in the world, but here in italy right now the government meeting to work out those measures which are likely to come in here on wednesday. kelly? >> will, you know, this is being billed as the lockdown that could save christmas do you think people should take it for granted that it will only be the month of november in most cases, or would it continue and possibly threaten that holiday, too? >> well, bores johnson said that today that the lockdown in

england would end on december the 2nd, but there's also been noises from within his own government that if these measures do not work and numbers keep rising then the lockdown could be extended, but, yes, it saved lives and save christmas that's not the official man tracks by think that that's what we all understand. it's interesting, kelly, in your introduction you said that the u.s. is looking at europe and suing what a second wave looks like and what further tough measures will look like because the numbers here are just rising off the charts, and if that continues in the united states, well, who knows whether it's president biden or a re-elected president trump. those are decisions that they will have to take come january >> yes, and we all know perhaps that outcome will tell us what course we take as well bill, thank you so much for joining us we really appreciate it. bill neely of nbc. coming up, the ad dollars

are adding up, a record year for political ad spending. a slew of stocks cashing in on it we'll break down the names. plus, president trump says biden's tax plan is the largest tax increase in history. it may not be the biggest, but if does rank pretty high we've got the numbers. and don't forgot, you can always watch us live on the go on the cnbc app. we're back in a couple hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for

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welcome back to "the exchange." market losing a little bit of steam. up 262 right now s&p hanging on to a 19-point gain, and the nasdaq is negative let's run through some of the big movers and seat picture today. oil prices are higher after closing out the worst month for march for crude. oils up 2% roaring back midday after it fell two bucks earlier in the session about 36 and change. retail is also moving higher everything from the gap to l brands to home depot and best buy are in the green today the xrt is up 2% and the ism survey on manufacturing survey, very, very strong, hit a two-year high in october, and that's helping the industrials names like stanley, black & decker, old dominion leading there, and not participating in today's rally is the airlines. southwest airlines is the whole performer. southwest down about 3.5%, and take a look at apple the company announcing an event for november 10th.

new macs with apple chips are expected the stock still down about 1% on the session. it fell 6% in october and big tech continues to be the lag yard today let's get to sue herera now for our cnbc news update hi, sue. >> hello, kelly. hello, everybody here's what's happening at this hour the world health organization is denying reports that its director general tested positive for the coronavirus, but tedros did if into quarantine yesterday after a contact tested positive. the agency says tedros will be tested if symptoms emerge. south dakota's attorney general was distracted before striking and killing a passenger walking along a highway shoulder in september that's according to a state investigation but that report does not say what distracted him. he told a 911 dispatcher he hit something but he didn't know what it was. and a federal judge says republican activists attempting to throw out 127,000 votes cast at drive-through investigate

centers in houston face an uphill road in convincing him that they should be voided houston is a democratic-leaning area and if you are looking for a bit of a pick me up while you wait for election results, krispy kreme will be giving out free doughnuts to celebrate the vote you get an original glazed and and i voted sticker. kelly, back to you >> wish there was one close by thank you very much. sue herera at headquarters for us. come up, record shattering donations this equity season private equity giving more money to campaigns that ever before and big tech could take a big hit to earnings if president trump's tax cuts are rolled back he'll join us with the names and how bad it could be ahead. we're back in two.

welcome back to "the exchange." stocks off session highs and the nasdaq is lower by 0 points on eve of the election. speaking of the election, we're tracking all the money pouring into it this year. julia boorstin is looking at the record-breaking spend on political ads.

leslie picker is looking at private equity's political sway and contessa brewer is in florida with a look at the demographic being most targeted by campaign cash we're beginning with julia boorstin on who is benefiting on the billions being spent on ads. >> reporter: kelly, there's been record political ad-spending in this presidential election cycle. $8.1 billion spent in total. looking at spending on traditional media, political ad spending is up more than two and a half times from the 2016 cycle to $6.7 billion. the biggest beneficiary of that is broadcast television bringing in some $4.5 billion up from $2 billion four years ago, and the biggest winners are these broadcast stocks for march lows, n nextstar is up 89% and sinclair up 79% and e.w. scripts up 72% from their low and tegra up 18% from the lows

the stocks are all down this year and having their worst year since 2008 on risks including cord-cutting as well as ad dollars shifting from television to digital ad platforms. broadcast tv spending dominates, its share declined from 75% to 65% and that was on the gains of digital. the big winners from political ads, digital growth include google and facebook and streamers such as disney's hulu and comcast's peacock and do remember, kelly, twitter is not accepting political ads. >> julia, in a way i'm surprised that the total spend isn't higher you know, $1 bill john a lot but when you think about what it could buy you i'm surprised it's not higher it's interesting that you point out the share losses for products i mean, that's a pretty big difference from 2016 this all makes me wonder what happens come 2021, whether you're broadcast or even facebook is this going to create a big

hangover when this campaign cash goes away. >> well, look, i think the biggest hangover is going to be for those broadcasters that really rely on it. we're talking about local television because television is where you see so much of that brand advertising that's really pulled back due to covid the digital platforms are thriving and for them this political ad spending has been a nice boost, but certainly not something that they rely on. really a smaller piece of their overall pie, but if you look at these stocks like the tegras and sinclairs, these are the companies that are really going to suffer when they start losing that boost that they saw this year, really an unprecedented boost and political ad spending. >> you mentioned twitter not taking cash, one of the worst performers in the s&p, unrelated by still down more than 5% julia, thank you. let's take a look at private equity and where they are putting their money because they are putting more of of it in this year's election than ever before the industry was putting weight behind a surprising choice

perhaps. leslie picker has all the details. >> reporter: kelly, that's right. the private equity industry is puttinging a record amount of money into the election us a mentioned and the vast majority of contributions to individual candidates are backing democrats 61% of the industry's donations went to blue candidates while 39% backed red ones. it's the highest proportion that the industry has given to dems since at least 1990 and a the first time the party captured a majority of pe contributions in a decade, although axios notes that more of pe's soft money donations have gone to conservative-leaning pacs. still, this is somewhat surprising because in recent years the democratic party has been far more vocal about regulating pe. they have largely supported taxes on carrying interest, the performance fees created by pe managers and the dems backed legislation that would make private equity firms be more on the hook for liabilities of the companies they acquire and industry executives point to

potential positives of a blue wave like the potential for fiscal stimulus and a clearer tariff strategy and additionally pe would be poised to benefit from a large infrastructure plan kelly? >> still, res lie, are we to expect that whomever they put their weight behind that they are expecting carried interest toe preserve >> it's unclear. surprisingly it hasn't been as much of a discussion this time around as it has been in the mid--terms of 2018 and, of course, the 2016 election. this time it isn't as much of a talking point. you don't really hear from democrats mentioning the word carried interest as they talk about their various tax plans. it's part of interest, but i don't think that the various contributors to these campaigns are as concerned about their carried interest as the ability to rake in profits save from other areas like infrastructure or clear tariffs or stimulus or things that could benefit their portfolio companies on the

ground >> they are saying show me the money h.just in a different way. leslie, thank you. let's get to contessa brewer now who has a look at one of the most important demographics in the sunshine state that campaigners are targeting. contessa >> kelly, most of the 130,000 people who live here retired from somewhere else, and in some cases attracted by the low taxes in florida, the weather, of course, and the lifestyle and for some like-mindness the villages has grown so fast over the past decade it's been named more than once the fastest growing metropolis in the nation, and since the pandemic we've seen northerners, especially new yorkers, moving for different reasons, and now they are voting in a battleground state >> i think every vote matters. this is obviously an important election, and everybody should be getting out there and voting. you want to know my political

affiliation? i'm a registered republican, voted for trump already. >> reporter: well, he's not alone. 68% of voters in this county went for trump in 2016 compared to 49% overall in florida, and though there are trump signs and republicans proudly declaring their political identity everywhere you turn, there are also some signs that biden's peeling off some of that support. thereof are now a few more biden golf cart parades to compete with the frequent trump ones with and president trump made the villages a priority with a campaign stop here, so did mike pence. boomers and older voters make up half of all voters in the state, and state woide senior support is neck and neck between these two candidates but you wouldn't know it here >> contessa, you've perfectly cap tired think the flat that my neighbors who just recent lip moved down there send in their videos all the time as well. they are obsessed with their golf cart. i'm jealous.

can we get some golf carts here? do you think they would ever let us in new jersey take them around the neighborhood? >> it's nat the same if you don't have the weather to go along with it, kelly >> yeah, i don't know. they are pretty nice these days. have the roofs, all electric contessa, thank you. we'll check back in with you contessa brewer in florida for us check in for the your money, your vote 20 to election coverage special when will it end it won't it's going all night long. president trump called vice president biden's tax plan the largest increase in history and while it's not quite the biggest, it's definitely up there. we're going to dig into the numbers and the companies that is could can be affected come up first though, two more consumer dependant companies filing for bankruptcy amid the ongoing pandemic we have those details next on "the exchange.

welcome back covid is taking a toll on businesses across the country. friendly's is the latest restaurant chain to fall vic to imit it. the fast food's parent company is filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy after the pan demig caused sales to plummet. it will sell substaungsly all of its assets to ameche partners group for $2 billion allowing all of its restaurants to remain open for at time being friendly's isn't alone two mall operators are filing for bankruptcy protection. cbo is going into chapter 11 owning more than 126 properties and the largest small owner in philadelphia, pennsylvania real estate investment trust, they are also filing to restructure they just opened the massive fashion district philadelphia last year. still ahead, tomorrow's election could have a big impact on tech, and it's not just higher taxes the other potential headwinds facing the likes of apple and other hardware companies is next after this quick break stay with us

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. well commonwealth back trump calling biden's tax plan the largest tax increase in

history. and what that could mean for the economy in a biden win i joe biden's tax plan would raise federal revenues president donald trump calling it the biggest tax increase in the history of our country now, by historical measures, biden's tax plan is big, but it is not the biggest there have been over to tax increases between 1940 and today. the top three is measured as a share of gdp were during and after world war ii with the largest in 1942 at over 5% of annual gdp biden's plan would be about .7% of gdp, which would rank it about tenth in history the second year 1.5% gdp and make it the largest since 1968

even if you looked at the plan over the entire ten-year period, his plan would rank about fifth overall. biden as plan would increase federal revenue to about 19% to gdp but it would really bring us back to the levels of 1998 and 2000, which wasn't that long ago and at that time wasn't that high kelly, back to you >> robert, still since the nature of this would be different than those post-war tax hikes, would that impact the economy? >> the natuure of it is differet because of the bizarre environment we're in with the pandemic and also the rate of change during world war ii we had high tax rates getting a little bit higher now at least with capital gains we're going from 23 to 43% so it's the rate of change in the environment that could make this a little bit different

>> all right, robert thank you, sir, robert frank my guest says corporate firms could have the most to loom if tax rates do go back up. it's great to have you i want to cut right to the chase here tell me about the earnings per share reductions you possibly see coming down the pike >> absolutely. the work we had done was encompassing looking at if tax grates back to wh rates go back to 2016, what would they be, you could see an impact of down 20, 25% on eps impact a company like apple that makes a good amount of profits in the u.s. still, you could see eps production north of 10% if tax rates go back to what they were ten years ago it's possible apple's could go

back 10% >> exactly the devil will be in the details, how they do, it how quickly they do it, the degree or color of the blue wave that you get. if you go back to what it was four years ago, it was about a 10% impact to apple. >> investors aren't going to blame apple if their earnings drop 10% they're a lot more concerned with earnings that show the company is poorly executing or not investing properly or losing market share or you name it. so it might affect the stock price, but is it just kind of something that investors take in stride, right? what kind of impact do you think it would have? is it a one-time sell off in the share price and a rerate weed have to wait to are this plan to actually come. this wouldn't necessarily be when we find out the outcome of the election, would it >> no, you're absolutely right it also goes down to where is this on the priority list of things they want to get

accomplished it's hard to go back to four years ago and say all these stocks went up when you have the tax returns happen, the other element you had four years ago, all these companies like an apple and cisco, were able to repatriate the money back to the u.s. and use it for difference purposes so i don't think you'll have the same degree of negative impact where you had a positive impact last time. from an apple, big tech perspective, other things that may matter more is what happens with big tech regulation if there is a blue wave and what happens to china relationships as you go forward. those things could have a more instruct earstructural impact. >> there's so much to ask about those. why do you think the shares are underperforming today? do you read an election outcome into that? >> you know, i'm not sure it an election outcome i think uncertainty or the fate

has unclarity going forward. i do think with apple you have the second set of product launches come out on friday and i'm sure people want to see what demand they get for those products before they have a better perspective there >> all right apple could go down 10%, palo l alto networks. thanks very much for your time appreciate you sharing your research with us that does it for us on "the exchange" today. still ahead on "power lunch", jay clayton will join us with a warning before election day. at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard.

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♪ good monday afternoon, everybody. welcome to power lunch the dow and the s&p are higher ahead of tomorrow's presidential election, but paring back an early rally and nasdaq has turned negative in just the last hour or so as technology continues to lag the broader market and th