right now dow futures up about 379 points s&p by 38. nasdaq up by 72. >> meantime cnbc reporters, we are spanning the country really to bring you live of coverage from washington in key swing states this hour we'll be hearing from phil lebeau in wisconsin the scott cohn in north carolina later in the program, we'll take you to pennsylvania, florida and position michigan. we've got a huge lineup of guests to get you ready for today's election results we have congressman kevin brady, president trump's former chief of staff, election coverage will be continuing all day and we should say through the night as you would imagine. and then we'll see you back here at 5:00 a.m. tomorrow morning for an update on what we know and the reaction in the markets.

we'll have another big lineup to walk us through thoseresults and what they could mean for your money as well including investors like barry diller so the next 24 hours as i think we all know will be action packed one way or the other. joe. >> thanks, andrew. president trump and joe biden making their final arguments to the american people in swing state rallies last night >> we made history together in our years ago and tomorrow we'll make history once again. >> we're still in the battle for the soul of america, decency, honor, respect >> you better get out there and vote tomorrow, i will be so angry, i'll never come back. never come back. >> i'm running as a proud democrat but i will govern as an american president >> for months cnbc has been bringing you exclusive data from

our states play of battleground polls. joe biden has a lead among likely voters in each of the six states that that poll is tracking they say the top issues were the economy, the pandemic and political corruption and check this ut, 46% of bide voters said that they were voting for biden the other 54% say that they are voting against president trump and i've actually made that point before that there is a lot of enthusiasm but a lot of it is based around president trump engendering a lot of enthusiasm among trump supporters and among people that don't want trump to win another four years and that is represented in that.

>> his supporters have -- >> i was going to say, i don't know what the market action yesterday means, what it means today. it is only -- these are small moves. two day 800 point gain is 3%, right is last week we lost about 6% >> yeah, 1800. 6.4% >> so i don't know what that means. so i don't know. >> i don't know what the market moves from last week meant either >> that's what i mean. so hard to get too excited -- high default reaction is that either the senate might be safer than people think. if i invested and if i had money, and i knew it was going to be a blue senate and joe

biden, i would not want to stay long i don't buy the stimulus thing i don't buy that the stimulus offsets all the regulatory issues and taxes that we're talking about. for my own money, i'd definitely -- i guess i have some mutual funds, i'll have to make some decisions. but it might be too late sorkin, you made the point about we're in a weak economy and raising corporate taxes and green new deals. >> i think raising corporate taxes in the midst of a pandemic is tough i'm not sure i feel the same way about individual taxes but related to the chart that you showed around those that are supporting biden because they like biden and these that are supporting biden because they don't like trump, which is to say that if biden were to win, and i don't want to jump to conclusions, but if he were to win, it will make it that much more challenging frankly for him to pull off whatever you believe his agenda is ultimately going

to be because as we're looking at it right there, the rationale for why he was supported is to some degree different than previous presidents in certain cases where presidents -- where they felt felt that there was a mandate for a particular policy. >> but that is so perverse >> it may be, but -- >> because you're saying that the market is doing better because he probably can't do any of that stuff? that is so perverse. he'll be prevented from the negative policies? >> you don't want either side taking it too far to their base and that is the reason that the divided government has been seen as a friendly one to the markets. obviously this time around it is a little different you codo need to get something passed stimulus-wise and i think that that will matter no matter who is elected it is a question of how big the package will be. >> i sent a shot of this home and i focused on this right here

and i focused on this right here and i sent to my son there is so much anxiety >> absolutely. >> almost every headline talks about anxiety. i went home yesterday and my son was like i'm so anxious. and just a lot of anxiety. >> when you see buildings being boarded up, when you -- >> i think that we'll get a shot of that too. >> and that is concerning. that is not normal i can't remember an election cycle ever where you saw things like this happening. >> this is where we get into a dangerous discussion because like i said yesterday, i don't think all those golf cart from the villages, i don't think that they will be looting and rioting. >> i'm not saying one side or the other on this, i would say that both sides have a tendency on the far edges of it >> you can't be politically correct and without saying that

either side might do it, but i don't think that it is the same thing. i'd be much more worried -- >> but i do think it is true >> i knew we'd get here. you think trump supporters will be -- >> i think there have been protesters -- i think there were protests over the summer that you know i think that were taken over effectively by looters. and i think they were co-opted and that is a terrible thing but it should be clear that the quote/unquote militias in this country historically have not been, you know, bastions of democrats. it is just not the case. when you look at the people walking around with guns and the cars and we talked about it yesterday, the trucks trying to pull the biden bus off the road or whatever was happening, that is at a different level and i

would also suggest that there is a violence that is truly suggestive of what that is, which is very different than -- this is why i say i'm not condoning looting. looting is terrible and the people who co-opted the protests is terrible. but to put it in the same conversation is unfair >> but boarding up things inne york city, chicago and places like that, you know, doing what you are saying is -- >> i will give you that. >> boarding up the buildings and sending the national guard into chicago -- >> but that is just the easiest pictures that you are talking about. what concerns me is that reuters poll that says 4 out of 10 on both sides of this won't accept the results of the election. no matter what happens, our unease doesn't go away there will be a significant portion of the population that doesn't accept the results and so it is a tough road from here. this is not something that ends

today or tomorrow or next week this is a problem of a divide in the country that needs to be resolved >> i don't think that the violence of choice of the crazy militia isn't the store fronts in new york city >> i'll give you that. >> i think andrew is still -- under no circumstances will you acknowledge even that much but anyway, i don't know where the militia are -- >> i don't know. >> here is one thing i will say. the people who like this, the people who like this chaos, it is iran, it is china, it is russia those who want to see in kind of discord disrupt our democracy which is the greatest democracy on theplanet i hope that we can get past that coming up, we'll kick off our battleground state coverage with a live report from wisconsin. plus we'll break down the possible outcomes and what it could mean for your money.

people aren't that nervous about the stock market at least today.

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welcome back to our election day coverage here on cnbc. we were bringing you live reports from battleground states across the country starting right now with wisconsin phil lebeau is standing by in milwaukee. what does it looks like this morning? >> reporter: ten electoral votes are up for grabs here in wisconsin, they are expecting a big turnout when the polls open up here in a couple hours. like so many, two issues are covid-19 and the economy jobs specifically. and our states at play survey shows how the feelings are very clear, 59% of the most recent surveyed say that it is getting worse as far as the impact the covid-19, 30% say it is getting better keep in mind the positivity rate sky rocketed up here up to nearly 30% for micro brush, a manufacturer just outside the city of

milwaukee, earl dwler yea earli had to furlough almost 80% of their workers as the market dried up, they pivoted and started to make test swabs and were able to bring back a majority of the employees, employees who realize what a volatile year it has been. >> i think that it is great that micro blush has stepped up and found a way to use our manufacturing site to aid in the covid pandemic >> we all worry about it, but i know we're doing everything that we can to stay safe and keep everybody safe so yes, i worry about it, i'm pretty sure everybody worry about it >> everywhere you go here, really anywhere in wisconsin, covid-19 is front and center in terms of concerns. people wearing masks, the discussion as the positivity

rate has skyrocketed we'll be here in wisconsin all day long, you don't want to miss our coverage from here and across the country tonight with our special election coverage that starts at 7:00 tonight here on cnbc. again, guys, the polls here in wisconsin open up in a couple hours. we're expecting there will be some seizable lines when they open up. >> wisconsin was won by president trump back in 2016, but it is relatively close, less than 23,000 votes. >> yes and that is why the democrats believe that it was so razor thin, they believe that if they have strong participation from voters here in the milwaukee area, that that is an area where they believe hillary clinton underperformed during the last election relative to previous elections and other democratic candidates, barack obama specifically they believe that this year they can get that participation rate higher to offset any impact that -- >> higher. >> yes, higher, that can offset

any impact that you might see from donald trump getting out his core supporters here in rural wisconsin. >> that was joe obviously. >> that is my tribute to santelli but now when anyone does it, i don't know, i hear it. thanks, phil let's talk more about the election, what investors can expect over the coming hours and days ed mills is joining us, washington policy analyst at raymond james. ed, on any given day we look at what happens in the as to being market and we look for some type of logic or cause and effect and it is always kind of a fool's errand. but your contention is as long as there is kind of an orderly election where it is not thrown into absolute chaos that that would be good for the markets. i would say as the polls tightened recently in the last

week, the chances for contested election or at least something that is not settled tonight have gone up, yet the market is, you know, it is up 800 points in two days getting back some of the 8 1800 from last week. but my point is that there we may be less certain of the outcoops the market seems to be okay with that >> i think that you are right. i think what we have seen it seemed even more uncertain last week i would argue where kind of the whole political and investment community has focused in on pennsylvania as a potential tipping state. what we saw over the weekend was a series of what is considered high quality polls, those are the live calling polls we can debate whether or not that will be right or not, but that showed a pretty decent set of polling for president trump

versus joe biden kind of in favor of vice president biden. and so i think the relief rally yesterday was on kind of a solidifying of polling in pennsylvania whether or not that is right or not, we have to wait until tonight, maybe for a couple days, especially in pennsylvania where a number of counties will not start counting a single absentee ballot until the day after the election >> you are still in the camp that if it was joe biden where are you with the senate, counseling t do you think the senate goes blue and if you had -- we've been talking about how maybe gridlock would still be good in and the market might prefer if vice president biden didn't have free reign to do all the things that he wants and maybe some members of his party that are even further left of joe biden,

that maybe the market would look at that in a less negative way if he wasn't able to get through a lot of the stuff if it goes blue both ways, do you still think the market will be fine? >> yeah, i mean so i think tomorrow if we have an election result, i think that we'll be waking up to either all blue or deja vu. i do think that the most likely outcome continues to be a democratic sweep can president trump win, can republicans maintain control of the senate, absolutely i just give that lower odds. as it relates to the market impact there, i do think when you get a blue wave that does increase the chance of the most amount of spending next year in stimulus, in infrastructure. i think that there will be debates over gre"green new deal" and other things, but i think those are more carrots than sticks arguably i think the most concerning outcome for the market, i do know traditionally

gridlock is preferred. but i think that the least amount of stimulus that we would get is in a biden victory but with a republican senate and i think that you have seen that as mitch mcconnell over the last several week and months has not wanted to commit the senate to any dollar amount on stimulus and we'll have the conversations about debt and deficits. so you don't get the helps but you would get all of the regulatory changes that biden administration could do. so i think that is actually the underappreciat appreciateappreck after the election is declared >> i totally appreciate it that is what i'll having trouble grappling with the regulations, he can reverse a lot of the deregulation day one that trump brought that is number one number two, we'll see taxes go up we keep hearing no one under $400,000 a lot of people make over $400,000 that are, you know,

poshl important parts of risking capital and whatever you want to say about leaving money in the private sector just because you spare people under $400,000 doesn't mean that it wouldn't have a somewhat negative effect on the private sector and then you add in the corporate taxes and then you say, well, this is all offset by running up a deficit that is already out of control and continuing to run up, you know, a deficit that eventually could mean higher rates and more debt service and we know how that slows down an economy as well so none of that rings true -- i mean that is just me and i'm known to be someone who thinks that the private sector is where a lot of the growth and prosperity comes from. all of these explanations don't ring true with me. >> joe, i think the real debate here is the timing and scope and so what we're focused on is what would be the next 6 to 12 months what we hear out of the biden

campaign is the lesson learned from the 2008/2009 financial crisis is that there was not enough attention paid to the recovery before there was a pivot to other things. i do think if there is a blue sweep a big debate could be whether or not these taxes, if they don't get done until late into 2021, if they were to go into effect early in '21, if they were retroactive or pushed out later, that could cause some weakness in key areas. but i do think that the overall market move on a known outcome, more fiscal stimulus, is bias to the up side. >> i don't want to fall into the same trap as people -- it was glaring how many people were predicting 5,000 points down four years ago and talking about long term, not your six months, and i don't need six months, i need longer than that, long term both

multiples are going to be contracted if all this happens, and margins will be contracted and you put both of those together, you got lower multiple and lower earnings and it will be bad for financial assets. andrew >> ed, i wanted to talk to yyou about something else we talk about all the policy issues related to taxes and stimulus and the like. but how do you factor into the economic picture both candidates and how they will deal with covid over let's say not just the next 12 months but potentially the next in months or longer in terms of testing programs clearly president trump says he doesn't want to test more, he actually always wants to test less vice president biden seems to be very interested in doing the opposite you would see him spend lots of money to be testing. there is a view that biden may be more likely to push for lockdowns at least in certain

areas or for certain times whereas president trump would not. how do you factor that into your thinking >> yeah, andrew, i think the way i factor that into my thinking is you have to ask yourself when would the economy recover faster and i think that much like almost everything in this country, it has become a bit of a debate under a re-election of president trump, i think that we are moving more towards a kind of reopening at all costs, herd immunity, that is what we saw mark meadows say, that we won't control the pandemic, we'll focus all on therapeutics and a vaccine. with a biden administration, i think the likelihood of a comprehensive national strategy rather than a state by state strategy is higher in that i think a higher kind of push on testing and kind of a similar outcome to what we have

seen else where in this world which is trying to get the positivity rate as low as possible is that you can contact trace and try to deal with the hot spots rather than having flare-ups throughout the country. >> why wouldn't you come out clearly and just say that that should be better for the economy if we were to follow the model of china or any of the countries in asia, clearly that as a strategy economically is a far superior one by default, just look at the numbers. >> i would agree >> interesting a lot of your analysis is based on pennsylvania and we know from the pennsylvania attorney general who has actually said that trump will lose if we count all the votes. he is actually attorney general -- >> we do need to count all the votes. >> that is not the point

the point is he said if we count all the votes, trump will lose so he has already told people why even bother. anyway, thank you. andrew a lot more to come on election day coming up when we return, an update on the surges in covid cases in the united states and new restrictions in states that have been opening up we'll bring you those details as well as details of president trump's adviser, new comments on covid as well. take a look at the biggest pre-market gainers in the s&p.

an update on the increasing number of covid cases in america. the governor of connecticut is rolling back the reopening of that state, scaling back capacity limits for restaurants and religious gatherings the state's positivity rate there ticking up to over 3.4% over this weekend. in the meantime in massachusetts residents are being asked to stay home between 10:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m restaurants, bars, gyms and liquor stores are ordered to close by 9d me:30. and indoor gathering are limited to 10 people when we return, stock futures are up sharply dow up by 380, so you are looking at it up 800 points

added into yesterday up next, we continue our live tour of battleground states. scott cohn is in north carolina. what do you have coming up for us >> the polls have just opened in north carolina and this is a key state, president trump carried it four years ago, he absolutely needs it in order to be reelected. we'll take a look at what is going on here and some important changes in just the last two weeks in our cnbc change research states of play poll how that poll is breaking here in north carolina, important developments coming up as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products.

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good morning and welcome back to cnbc's election day coverage right here on "squawk box. let's show you u.s. equity futures at this hour, the implied open this morning on the dow is about 386 points.

s&p s&p looking to open up about 38 points higher the nasdaq looking to open 57 points higher. we can debate why that is, but right now we want it turn our attention to the tour of the battleground states. no republican has won the white house without winning north carolina and so it will come down to turnout. and scott cohn is in one of the places where the polls have just opened scott. >> yeah, they opened just five minutes ago here in clayton, this is in johnston county southeast of raleigh, a county that the president carried by a 2:1 margin in 2016 he absolutely needs to repeat that in order to win re-election. and he needs to boost the turnout here considerably because the majority of the state's 7.4 million registered voters have already voted. of those roughly 4.6 million

people correspond to the state board of elections.% of t, 37% m democrats, 32% independents. and with polls showing that the early voters generally favor joe biden, president trump really needs to turn out the 3.25 million registered voters yet. and there is potential good news for him in those latest numbers from the cnbc change research states of play poll and actually big changes since our last survey two weeks ago take a look at the state of the economy which is a top issue everywhere and the top issue in north carolina, now flipping in north carolina with 55% saying that the economy is excellent or good who will do the best getting people back to work? another flip, 54% for trump and among those, this restaurant manager dave urbanic

>> i think the economy in the same breath as the coronavirus is very important to me and i would throw a vote to whoever is going to get that economy humming again. >> urbanic voted early in person, but the president will need a lot more people like him to show up today here in places like clayton there was a bit of a line when they opened the polls up about seven minutes ago. the line seems to have cleared it is moving pretty quickly. not sure what that says about turnout for the state. we'll be looking at both these republican leaning precincts and democrat leaning precincts throughout the day leading up to election night tonight >> scott, i'm looking at the clock, it is 6:. a.m. in t37 a.e morning. you're going to bed at what time that should signal when you think that we may or may not know at least about what is taking place where you are >> well, i'll tell you what

we're being told by the state board of elections of course this is critical with the mail-in votes, early votes they say that when the polls close at 7:30 tonight, they expect that they will be able to report about 80% of the turnout all of that being people who voted up until about 5:00 -- i should say people who voted early and mail-in ballots that came in by 5:00 today. and then that will fill in with the people who voted during the day today. so we expect that what we'll see when the polls close at 7:30 tonight is numbers that should favor joe biden, but that gap is likely to close again depending on the turnout in these heavily trump areas in the more rural parts of the state >> scott cohn, great to see you. we'll be checking in with you throughout the day appreciate it. for more on the latest polling this battleground states and the sentiment around the swing voters, we're joined by

frank luntz. good to see you. at this point you're focusing on some of the swing voters, that would be voters who voted for president trump last time around and are planning to vote for vice president biden this time or those who voted for hillary clinton last time who are planning to vote for president trump this time. correct? >> that is correct and what is fascinating about them is that there are two issues that they are generally focused on one is covid and that is one of the reasons why people who voted for trump in 2016 are voting for biden. they feel that there was no plan, that the virus was worse than they expected, that the president really didn't have a handle on it and they don't like him fighting with his medical experts. and then on the economy, as you heard that is the number one issue for a lot of americans that is the reason why you had clinton people from 2016

switching to donald trump in 2020 they see him as better able to create jobs, they see him better able to stew arrested tard the e for those that are trump voters, that is the one unifying factor. and frankly, i think that the trump campaign should have spent more time on the economy and less time on hunter biden and some of the scandals that they brought up in the last seven days >> let's listen into what some of the swing voters said when i asked them about the economy and president trump. >> donald trump has done great for the economy, biagain, covid i think many small businesses that can't afford to survive through it won't survive large corporations, amazon, walmart, will all become huge. >> one thing that disturbs me is the federal reserve has warned that if congress doesn't pass a

package of additional relief for businesses and small business owners and states, that we could potentially be in trouble with monetary policy. and so from my perspective, the fact that koncongress went homed did not come to any agreement with the president, i mean, what does that say about their respect for the american people and where their priorities really are >> frank, with all of that, how do you think it really plays out? you said that those voters who support president trump 98% of them are doing it because of his performance on the economy and jobs is that enough for him to win re-election? >> i'm not convinced and in fact we're now at election day so you are haasking for prognostications at this point if trump does pull it out and there are people who think that he does have a chance, it would be the complete and utter destruction of the polling industry at least in

politics because virtually all of the mainstream surveys, not only have biden leading, but they have him up six, seven, eight points there are a few polling firms and trump's own polls that show him in the lead or even in most of the swing states. so there have been a few outliers in this but the fact is, as you see in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, arizona, arizona more republican than democrat, but in too many states particularly those upper midwestern states, trump has to win one of them, either wisconsin, michigan or pennsylvania, one of the reasons why trump hand biden have spent so much time in the skeystone state. they are doing everything that they can to get turnout, trump in the middle part of the states, biden in philadelphia, pittsburgh i think when they look back on this election, they will say that missing a presidential

debate was essential, the fact that they cancelled one will be really problematic and the fact that the economy was getting better, it was under recovery, but not enough americans saw it, felt it, really personalized it, that these are the two key factors in the eventual outcome. >> the chart that we were looking at, the picture of the american country and where the swing states are, a lot of the differences 2% to 3% difference between president trump and former vice president biden in those states margin of error is 1.7%, so that is pretty close. i was just kind of looking at some of the odds for the betting sites in terms of when we think that we'll actually know who the winner is. some of them say november 13th or later sports betting has december 1 or later listed as the favorite what do you think, is this going to be something where there is clarity tonight, tomorrow, later this week? or you think it takes longer

>> unless i screw up right now, i will be on your air tomorrow at the same time and we will not have a winner tomorrow we'll have an indication of where things are going and the fact that you went to north carolina, three states voters need to follow this evening, florida, north carolina and ohio if donald trump wins all three of them, he will be in this and it may boil down to pennsylvania because they will take the longest to count we will not know a winner in pennsylvania for at least the next 48 hours, perhaps 72 hours. but we will know in florida, ohio and pennsylvania by 2:00 a.m. which candidate won if trump wins all three, he is in this. if biden wins even one of those three, it is biden's presidency. >> so on a competing thets work, y network, you see this gentleman and a "new york times" piece that came out that this guy's

methodology must be different because he has different -- it is a poll that is an youtlier to most of the polls that we've seen do you know what his methodology is and do you think that it is flawed that gives him these wildly different numbers than you and the rest of the polling universe >> well, he does it online is the first difference and i think that people actually are more likely to be honest online because they are not being judged by the voice of the person on the other end. number two, he has a different way of sampling. my issue is that after getting it wrong, after everyone getting it wrong in 2016, that the polling outfits made a special effort to ensure that rural votes were counted, to ensure that those who are often forgotten in the exit polls are represented. this election is extremely tough to poll because of so many early

voters and i will get access to that exit polling number tonight at 6:00 p.m. and i will take every poll with a grain of salt, even my own >> his methodology, did it help him correctly call it last time and less likely that he does this time? >> we all get lucky. look, my poll was the only one that had brexit winning. everybody else showed brexit losing by four to six points i don't think it was my method on ol methodology. i think i not lucky. if he is right this time then clearly there is something right about what he is doing but this is significant. >> frank, there has been a number of polls where you have respond dents asked two questions, who they are votinging for and another is who they think their friends are voting for in which case the balance doesn't necessarily tip toward president trump but gets closer.

do you believe those are more accurate and honest? >> let me give your viewers insight into this. 85% of trump voters think that he is going to win tonight, tomorrow, whenever the election is over. 85%. only 64% of biden voters think that he is going to win. we've never in american history had a spread where one is so clearly winning in the moles but everybody thinks the other candidate is likely to win and that is one thing that i'm scared about tonight i think that this is not going to be resolved in 24 hours i don't think that it will take until december 1, but i do think it will take two or three days and people may get the wrong img pregs ba impression based on what is counted early. you may see an early street for joe biden. states like pennsylvania will count today's vote and that is an advantage for trump i'm hoping that the analysts understand what it means state

by state let every voter be heard >> frank, thank you. we'll see you back here this time tomorrow morning. we've got a lot more coming up on this election day. in the next hour, we have very big guests including representative kevin brady, dr. got leib wi gottlieb will join us and mick mulvaney but first, neera tanden with her take our special election kinch stels tonight 7at ong tonig:00 tonigh

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welcome back to "squawk box," election day is here, you're looking at a live shot right there of voting location in ohio, hours before the final ballots are cast what happens after the polls are closed social media platforms are set to contend with disinformation as we try to await the election results. joining us right now to discuss what americans with expect over the next few days, neera tanden, ceo for the center of progress let's talk about this. i think the expectation at this point is that we're not going to know the results for several days, and walk me through your scenario, if you will, both the good scenario and maybe the absolute worst scenario in terms of misinformation, unrest, and

the like over the next couple of days. >> let me start with the bad scenario first a harsh negative scenario is we don't have election results but bad actors, as we don't have election results today, tonight, tomorrow or even for a few days, but, you know, bad actors basically sow disinformation through the social media platforms. they call election results, say elections have been called that have not been called they say the voting has been rigged when it's never been rigged because of that, there's allegations of rigging they call for violence so, you know, this is something that we're concerned about, but in many respects, the intelligence community is deeply worried as well because we could have that happen from home grown sources, but foreign adversaries could join in as well. we believe that the social media platforms have a responsibility,

particularly around the elections, to ensure that they are stopping the spread of disinformation we could have results relatively quickly in which case we won't, you know, there's less of an ability to spread disflf disinformation, but the most likely course is it will take a few days to learn, as we have known for many many months now, and really the most important principle is to wait to ensure every vote is properly counted. >> and so what do you want the social medias to do when it comes to editing, if you will, or censoring various tweets, postings or other things, potentially even by the candidates, including the president himself? >> well, i think censoring is a bit of a loaded term the issue we're talking about here is disinformation, when people deliberately spread falsehoods in order to achieve

their political games. we want the social media companies to act responsibly they have taken steps around covid misinformation they should take steps around misinformation around elections. and you know, there's several steps it can take. they can fact check this information, just provide people with a sense of whether something is basically true or not. they can, you know, basically deamplify misinformation, so ensure that it's not spreading virally very quickly, and they can deplatform people who are regular already or sources that are regularly sowing disinformation >> what are you really most worried about right now? not just social media, i'm talking about the next couple of days, if not the next week what's your deep worry >> well, my deepest worry is that we will have violence against people who are doing vote counting.

you know, we'll have politicians sort of wink and nod about violence to interrupt vote counting all around the country, and that could happen anywhere that is my deepest fear, that some of the heated rhetoric will turn to political acts, and i think it's grossly irresponsible that we can't get every single political leader to condemn them, including the president of the united states. >> neera, just to be clear because we were having this debate earlier in the program, do you think this is a both sides issue? >> absolutely not. it is not a both sides issue we have a president who has said things like the proud boys, a white nationalist violent group should stand back and stand by instead of condemning them clearly from the debate stage. we have seen this, where the president has fueled the fans of division, racial division, social division, instead of

trying to calm them down then you have joe biden who has in every opportunity said violence must be condemned by anyone and, you know, and doesn't equivocate on that point. >> neera tanden, we hope that your worst case scenarios don't come true. we appreciate you joining us this morning, and i'm sure we'll be talking to you in the days to come thanks. >> becky >> when we come back, we have two more big hours including representative kevin brady, former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney, and facebook executive alex stamos you have to watch the markets this morning, dow futures indicated up by 432 points, more than the gains we saw yesterday. s&p up by 41, the nasdaq up 46 "squawk box" will be right back. [typing]

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good morning, and welcome back to this special edition of "squawk box," your money, your vote, right here on cnbc on election day the fight for that house, the

white house, i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen it's great to see everybody this morning. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour looks like things are going to open up higher, much higher, dow looking to open up about 430 points higher, the nasdaq firming up as well, 63 points right now. the s&p 500 looking to open about 42 points right now as well and we'll talk about the markets and your money in just a moment. becky. >> thanks, andrew. in the meantime we'll be hearing from reporters from key states we'll be heading to florida for the latest on election day there. later, our nation's capital for the final states of play survey, and after that, we'll have reports from pennsylvania and michigan but we begin with contessa brewer she's in orlando, florida, and contessa, good morning >> reporter: good morning to you, becky the poll worker just came out and announced the polls are open

the first woman in line this morning got here at 5:15, and she's walked inside, but take a look at the line now as we walk down this line, there are scores of people who are here waiting for election day. i asked them why, and they said, look, we just like voting on election day, and you know what makes this state such a nail biter, it is perpetually close, about a percentage point difference in the last two elections. this year, take a look at the ballots that have already come in from early voting or mail-in. 3.4 million from republican, 3.5 million from democrats, and 1.9 million from voters who are neither. among florida's 14 million registered voters, 26% have not yet declared a party latino voters who are more divided than in other states, those of cuban and venezuela heritage tend to be more conservative, with long memories of socialist dictators puerto ricans may be motivated

by trump's handling of hurricane mar maria, and in 2018, there were 1.2 puerto ricans living in florida. nationally, the economy ranks as the top concern. taxes top of mind for many floridians who moved here to escape high tax states, and then of course there's jobs, certainly. orlando relies on tourism for its economy, and the unemployment in that industry has plummeted 32% from this time last year. so these are big issues, important vote we'll be watching turnout today on the heels of what was very enthusiastic early voting. i have talked to voters out here this morning, and you know what, they're enthusiastic too. >> contessa, the one thing that kind of caught me in your report is 34% of the early mail-in voters were republicans. 35% were democrats we have been saying that the majority of early voters tend to say they would be voting for biden. is it a different story in florida based on the number of

republicans who voted early too? >> reporter: you know, but there's no way to tell whether republicans are voting for donald trump, whether democratic voters are actually voting for biden, and that huge important, undeclared set of voters, who are they voting for, and right now we just don't know we watch those returns coming in tonight in florida, and wait and see. >> contessa, thank you okay back for more on the battleground states, stimulus and what the election means for business, let's bring in congressman kevin brady. he is the ranking member of the ways and means committee congressman, good morning. >> good morning, joe, how are you doing? >> i'm doing well, thanks. where are we let's start with stimulus, and covid, and you know, people that still need -- i know there's an election, but we haven't moved any further along on trying to address some of the issues that are affecting americans in this regard >> yeah, it's been awfully

frustrating. we should have had a covid package done to the american people two months ago. everyone knows what we need, ppe focused on small businesses, more help for the mid-sized businesses and distressed industries where we know the economy isn't recovering quite as quickly as we would like, and targeted relief. i am frustrated with speaker pelosi i think rather than a $2 trillion wish list this could have been done i'm not sure she was open to helping this economy ahead of the election. perhaps she will be afterwards. >> and, you know, when do you expect -- i don't know if your opinion is better than anyone else's, but we could be dealing with this for a while, hopefully we're not talking 37, 38 days, but the american people, are we going to have to wait to get a definitive, i guess, outcome, then we got to wait for whether it's a lame duck or a reelected

president trump, wait for that i mean, we're talking weeks if not months. >> yeah, i'm hopeful we get the results sooner rather than later. obviously in the senate, the contested races in georgia, obviously we'll draw or may draw that out but i'm hopeful, whatever the way it is, we'll handle it the right way. you know, i know the enthusiasm in texas and early voting, we haven't seen a blue wave democrats came out of the gate pretty quickly in early voting, but republicans, as we closed out, have about almost a 600,000 vote expansion or lead among primary voters, but a lot depends upon today, we've still got about 15% of the voters who show up. traditionally, they love coming on election day. so i'm optimistic the president wins in texas so does senator cornyn, but today really matters. >> i'm wondering about, you know, the notion that texas is

in play. i didn't see vice president biden there. i think senator harris visited texas, but do you think that they believe that it's realistic -- is georgia realistic, is texas realistic, are we seeing is georgia turning into virginia? >> yeah, so obviously i know more about my home state so texas is competitive, no question about it. i don't think on the presidential ticket, i think the presence here was more about the congressional races and an effort to take the texas house democrat as well all of these are coin toss races. many of them and so election day is 15% of the vote today, you know, a big say in the outcome that's why today really does matter. >> congressman brady, we're all -- are you anxious i held up a newspaper that says anxious. you're used to this, i guess

you're a seasoned pro, and it's not, you know, you've been through it again and again and again, so. >> yeah, elections are exciting, joe, and they're always unpredictable, so yeah, if your adrenaline isn't pumping today, for most americans, something's wrong with you, so head over to the polls right after this, like most people running for office, and hope we have a good day. >> congressman, you're breaking up a little bit with your mic, but we appreciate you making yourself available this morning, and we'll see see. we'll all be waiting and watching thanks. >> yes, sir. thanks, joe. >> you're welcome, andrew. a lot more coming up dr. scott gottlieb is going to join us on the surge in coronavirus cases and later, former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney will joining us as well to discuss what election means for your money. we're going to have all of that right here on "squawk box. before we head to that break, though, take a look at the markets right now, the dow

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a memo from white house coronavirus task force coordinator deborah birx getting some attention this election morning. she writes that the u.s. is quote entering the most concerning and deadly phase of this pandemic, and she calls for much more aggressive action. joining us right now is dr. scott gottlieb he's the former fda commissioner under president trump. he's also a cnbc contributor, and sits on the boards of both illumina and pfizer. dr. gottlieb, what you have heard from deborah birx this morning, do you agree with that? what do you think the action should be? >> well, look, based on the reporting, i think it's consistent with what we have been saying that we're entering a very difficult period with this pandemic, and this is probably going to be the densest phase of the pandemic. we're probably going to see significant spread across the entire united states in a conflue

confluent epidemic i don't think we're going to see the excess death that we saw with the first wave of this pandemic when it struck new york and it was a very dense epidemic in new york but the sheer fact that we're going to be infecting so many people is probably going to mean the death tolls get well above a thousand for a sustained period of time it's a very grim couple of months that we face. i think this is the last sort of acute phase of this pandemic that we need to go through, and things will get better in 2021 but we need to hunker down and be careful over the next couple of months. >> the deaths may be a little better under control this time around, but it's the hospitalizations that really were the cause for why the economy shut down so drastically because so much of those early cases back in march and april were concentrated in the northeast and places like new york city. it was overwhelming the hospitals. that was the huge concern. is that a concern this time around or is it different because these cases are more spread out across the country? >> no, it's going to be a concern.

there will be parts of the country that get very pressed and the challenge is that because you have a more diffuse epidemic around the country, you're not going to backstop the regions that have the epidemics. you have 14 states with more than 200 hospitalizations per 1 million people that's the loose threshold that the europeans used to instigate the measures they took, the stay-at-home orders. i don't think we're going to go to that here in the united states i don't think you'll see broad stay-at-home orders but it is a measure that the hospitals are getting pressed. morgan stanley put out a good report documenting the levels in different states that's going to continue to go up these are early days with this wave of virus across the united states i think it's going to continue to build over the next three weeks, and thanksgiving will probably be an inflection point that the spread is so diffuse, the month of december, we're going to have to take targeted measures to slow down certain activities, shut down certain congregant settings where spread is occurring not the broad state homeowners

there's no populous support. not talking about lock downs but something akin to what new york did, when they had outbreaks in certain communities, they took targeted measures in those communities. you're likely to see that similar thing play out in other states. >> dr. gottlieb, i want to go back to this dr. birx memo is this too little too late. you have been making warnings on our air for months dr. fauci has been public for months dr. birx has not been public virtually at all, in fact, this was an internal memo that appears to have now been leaked just within days of the election when to some degree you could argue that perhaps there are people inside the white house that believe the president is not going to win reelection. >> well, look, i know dr. birx a little she tends to give her guidance privately, and i think that's what she's been doing. this one memo leaked but my understanding is there were multiple memos, and i think maybe daily memos that really mirror this, and the fact that

they didn't leak before this is i think suggestive of the fact that she does give her guidance privately. if you listen to what she has been saying when she goes around to the states it's consistent with what was in the memo, what was reported to be in that memo. i think her advice has been consistent all the way through she just, you know, is an internal adviser who doesn't speak publicly on a national platform about these, and in some respects, her role has been changed. she was more out front earlier, but other people have taken that sort of out-front role for the white house more recently. >> if that's the case, fair to say the president is not listening to her >> it doesn't appear that she's briefing the president with the same frequency that she used to, and she has said that in the press, so that's been reported in the press i don't know whether he's listening to her or not. i think her role has changed she seems to be playing a much more outside role, directly working with states and not that sort of public --

>> but given the things that she's saying and given the things that the president is saying, it doesn't matter whether she's briefing him or not, he's clearly not taking whatever that advice might otherwise be, correct? >> yeah, well, i think it's fair to say that the white house strategy is different than the strategy being outlined by debbie birx and tony fauci at this point that's clearly apparent. >> dr. gottlieb, i guess the next question is what happens with this election day does it matter what are the strategies going to look like from a national perspective one way or the other? >> well, i think that the acute phase of this is really going to play out over the next couple of months, and by the time a new president is inaugurated in january, whether it's donald trump or it's joe biden, i think that we're going to be probably peaking in terms of the epidemic, and so whether or not the strategy is going to change depending on whether the president's reelected or not, i suspect that's not going to be the case i think that the president is going to follow the course that

he's going to follow, regardless of the outcome of the election, and if biden is elected today, then, you know, he's going to be coming in at a point to try to mitigate some of the challenges that we face in this epidemic as we come out of it, and making sure that we don't have a resurgence in infection, which i think there's things we can do to try to prevent 2021 from being a difficult year, and get kids back in school. that's the first thing we should do to push this out to local districts. there's a lot we could be doing there. >> what do you think happens with the schools over the next few months kids are in school. >> right so i think schools that are open right now are going to have challenges remaining open because even though the kids are at lower risk and lower risk of transmitting, when you have a dense epidemic and your hospital system is pressed, you reach for every tool you can and closing the schools is going to be one tool i think they will be challenged. maybe they could stay open

schools that haven't opened, it's going to be hard to open against in backdrop. that said, as we come out of this in the winter, january, february, the first thing we should try to do is get the schools reopened there's no reason kids can't have a spring session and late winter session as we come out of the national epidemic. we should be getting resources into schools right now, testing in schools that can't socially distance you know, targeted aid to schools to get proper protective equipment for teachers targeted assistance in schools, particularly schools that don't have a lot of money to try to retrofit hvac systems where appropriate, and allow for distance learning where they have to go to hybrid models. there's a lot we can do to provide assistance, and more information on what worked and what didn't. we have a lot of experience in this country with schools that have been opened i can't tell you whether the schools that used masks did better, went to high brybrid mos did better

some people have done it the federal government has not collected and shared that information, and that would really help provide confidence to districts >> doctor, if you were still undecided today, and were going to vote simply on strategy about attacking covid-19 and trying to bring oureconomy back, which candidate do you think has the better strategy? >> well, look, this has become a very political issue oddly enough i mean, even wearing marvsks ha become a political issue and divides along political lines. i think the answer to that question, are what are your underlying politics because covid strategy quite remarkably seems to break down along political lines even though i think it should transcend those kinds of considerations. >> i'm asking you as a doctor. >> yeah, look, i've made no secret of my view that we need to take a more aggressive posture here, and i think what biden prescribes with respect to trying to push out testing, it's

worked in other countries, and not just south korea, not just countries that use aggressive tracking and tracing and electronic surveillance tools that we wouldn't be able to use in this country, they have done it in regions of italy and europe successfully on a localized basis. the europeans have had as much trouble as we have implementing national strategies and getting the population to wear masks and do simple things but when we do these things, make testing broadly available and testing and access skpible and free and cheap for people, this is how the entire pacific rim has controlled the infection i would urge the trump administration to adopt this posture as well. >> dr. gottlieb, i want to thank you. good to see you. >> thanks a lot. >> joe. >> coming up thank you, thank you coming up, election predictions and what it means for business from mick mulvaney, and check out the shares of pay pal, the stock dropping 4% after hours despite reporting better than

expected earnings. wnbo 5%. we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we have a couple of stock stories for you on this election

ni morning. royal caribbean extended cruise cancellations amid the end of the year amid an increase in global virus casings rival norwegian cruise lines made a similar claim adjusted quarterly earnings of 16 cents a share with the makers of oreo cookies beating forecast that stock down by $0.46 a remind e cnbc's election coverage will continue today and through the night. in fact, tomorrow there's a special edition of "squawk box" starting at 5:00 a.m. eastern time then we'll get a head start on the trading day and what we know, and we'll hear from some o. nati of the nation's brightest business leaders including mario gabeli, bar gabeli, barry diller it all starts at 5:00 a.m. eastern time right here. "squawk box" will be right back. ok, just keep coloring there...

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it's election day, 2020, and the race has tightened up in key

battleground states, eamon javers, joins us with the final cnbc change research states of place survey hey, eamon. >> good morning, boy is it tight out there in these battle ground state, an enormous range of possibilities still possible tonight in this election victories for both candidates are possible a landslide is possible. a squeaker is possible why is that? well, that's because we're seeing these huge national poll gaffes, joe biden has a 10 point lead but look at the battleground states, and what you see is a tighter picture, state by state these are the likely voters in each state that we have been looking at, and what you see is joe biden has a lead in every single one of these states but it's very close. he's at 50% or above in most of them, but look at north carolina 47-49 for joe biden in that state. that's very close to the 1.7% margin of error in this poll, so

call north carolina may be a tie. otherwise joe biden leading in all of those states. overall, you smooth that out, it looks like 50-46, joe biden is preferred in those battleground states that indicates that joe biden might have a very good night tonight. but look at the movement that we've seen take a look at the president's job approval now, and what you see is 52-48 for the president of the united states, and there's that late movement at the end of the chart there since october 21st things are moving in the president's direction. his approval ticking up. his disapprovals ticking down. he's still under water there, but that's one to look at, and also, take a look at the late movement we have seen in the president's handling of the economy, 51-49 people in the battleground states approve of the president's handling of the economy by a slight margin again, the movement there late since october 21st, joe, is in the president's direction. what you're seeing is a late

move what we don't know is that just static and noise in the data or is there something breaking there in the battleground states that's moving a scooch in the battleground direction >> a couple of late, i monitor these predicted things, a little movement here in just the last couple of days here on both of the ones that i'm monitoring, too, but still here's the rcp average, 60.4 to 38.6, but it was just 65-66 if you look at the chart at the bottom, you see a little bit of a closing but i don't know what to make of it. i don't think we know. i don't think anybody really knows. >> we don't, and there's so many wild cards out there this time take a look at the state of texas. texas has been trending democratic over the past three cycles

this year, democrats think there's a chance they could capture for joe biden. if that happens, that's a huge number of electoral votes. seems enormously unlikely given the history of texas being a red state, but there are things that can happen, and just because it hasn't happened in the past, doesn't mean it's not going to happen tonight a lot on the table. >> and eamon, there's a very weird scytabout what we know abt the early voting, and it's so big, talked about so much that the same day turnout has some people thinking that it can't -- that it no longer is quite as consequential, and maybe that's true i don't know maybe it's not true. i don't know if we know. and that's assuming that all the early voting was going for one, you know, for one candidate versus the other as well >> that's another huge unknown

as we go into election day today, what we don't know is the massive, nearly 100 million people have voted in it country. this is unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes or ever in the united states. the question is all that just pulled forward because of covid. people said you know what, it's dangerous out there. i'm going to stay home and vote by mail, and that's going to reduce the number of votes see show up on election day or is that a massive surge in voting indicative of an overall surge in this election and we're going to see massive election day voting again today we don't know that we're going to have to go around the country. the other big question is are we going to see this red shift blue shift you're talking about as some of the predictions were that democrats would vote more heavily early, and republicans would vote on the day, and so in a state like pennsylvania which is going to be so crucial tonight, you have this dynamic where if a lot of democrats voted early, and yet pennsylvania is not allowed to start counting those votes until

tonight, will you see election day voting that looks very red but then shifts blue overtime as those mail-in ballots get counted in the hours and days to come, and how is that dynamic going to play out politically over the 48 hours after the election so many unknowns this year. >> i have seen math that comes from, i guess, some people at the white house, i don't know, i see it on twitter, all the stuff, people send me stuff where they're actually calculating, all right, you've got 750,000 favoring biden you've got 2.5 million showing up on election day, that's expected to be x amount for this guy. that gives you a 400,000 vote advantage. i mean, it's crazy what you're seeing, and i don't know if there's any bearing on reality for any of it. i don't know which parts -- >> that reminds me, i took astronomy years ago, there's something in astronomy, called the drake equation, a mathematical equation about

whether aliens exist, the problem with the equation is you don't know any of the unknowns so how can you get an answer we don't know the unknowns, so we don't know what the answer is going to be in pennsylvania. you can put all the numbers you want into a magical equation but no idea what you're looking at. >> breaking bad. does that sound like heisman. >> uncertainty principle >> i think astrology is more important in this context. >> for more on what we can expect from today's presidential election i want to bring in our guest this morning, joining us right now is mick mulvaney, president trump's former white house chief of staff mick, it's great to see you. let's just start here, what are you hearing? >> apparently about the drake equation, i'm hearing it's going

to be close. the same thing you talked about, talked about all morning, it's going to be very very close. i'm surprised we're talking about how the polls are so close. i have heard for the last three or four weeks, the president doesn't have a chance. there was a poll in wisconsin a week ago saying biden was up 17 points the polling probably doesn't have much value in determining outcomes it may show trends, which is interesting because it looks like the president is trending in the right way i think you're going to see something close. i would look first to florida tonight. florida closes 7:00, most of the state does they'll get most of the early ballots counted in early if the president wins florida by a wide margin, it bears well for him the rest of the night. if he loses florida, it's probably over. it's one of those things to look for if you're looking for something to watch. >> and what's the gut reaction of the president and those around him that you have been speaking to about florida? >> they feel very good about florida. feel very good about ohio as well it's why you have seen the president spend so much time in

pennsylvania, and michigan and minnesota. politician, it's usually good advice to watch what they do more than what they say. there's a reason no one really believes texas is in play because joe biden hasn't been to texas. if he thought he could win texas, he would be in texas. the president has spent time in florida because he lives there but most of the time, the candidates have been where, pennsylvania, michigan, minnesota, and wisconsin, those are the states it is tight i think florida goes to the president tonight, the question is by how much >> take us behind the scenes in terms of what the lawyers are thinking about the president has been very clear that in certain states, he may be mounting legal campaigns to either prevent votes from being counted or to re-examine how they are counted. >> yeah, i was surprised it's getting as much attention as it does that's ordinary course of business for every campaign. there are lawyers in every state party when i ran for the state house of representatives 15 years ago, we had lawyers ready

in my county in south carolina that's ordinary course of business on election day, and everybody knows it election laws are so arcane, and so complex, and they vary from state to state, and sometimes from county to county. it's not unusual at all to have lawyers in place i was surprised that got a little bit of attention. anybody who had done 30 seconds of research would know that's not that big of a deal not sure why anyone is paying attac attention to that. >> how concerned are you about unrest in the country? >> we had folks over for dinner, i think you're going to expect more unrest if the president wins than if he loses. i don't think that's the national narrative that's the sense i'm gettingment i think that unrest is, you know, 1/10 of 1% of the population i don't think it's going to be that big of a deal granted, as soon as i say that, there will be something large, but i don't get the feel, and i have been traveling in all of the swing states, five or six states in the last week that

that's where the nation is right now. people want this to be over. they're very interested in the outcome but i don't feel like either side is going to take to the streets if they lose tonight. >> in terms of messaging given that you have been spending time in these swing states, how do you think about the president focusing on his economic message versus what seems to have happened over the past couple of weeks, these hunter biden e-mails and the like >> yeah, you know, that's a really good question, and what i think you're seeing there, andrew, is a realization that there aren't any undecided voters left and haven't been for some time. the hunter biden message is not to get an undecided voter to vote for the president, it's designed to make sure the person who likes the president will get out and vote you go from persuasion to motivation i think you have seen that by the way on both sides. the attacks on the president have gotten harsher from the biden campaign, because they're firing up their base there have been not been

undecided voters for a while, i think the campaign realized that several weeks, and a focus on getting out the vote it's interesting because typically in an ordinary election, the democrats would have a much better ground game than the republicans this year, however, i think it's fear about covid has impacted the democrats' ability to get grass roots people out, get them motivated, get them working for joe biden, where as the base for the president has not had that same sort of fear. it will be interesting to see if the president wincs, how much that covid narrative plays into the outcome. >> you saw this memo from dr. birx that was leaked in the "washington post" overnight telling the president, telling the white house that we are getting into this very deadly phase, trying to push for what i think is a fundamentally different strategy than the white house is pursuing. do you think that will have any effect if he were to win >> i think it has an effect

anyway keep in mind, no one person gets to make the final decision other than the president it's one of the reasons i don't have much difficulty with dr. fauci has been saying. i don't like his method of doing it, shouldn't be on the cover of magazines and so forth, the fact that he wants to raise a red flag is his job, as is dr. birx. the president is also going to get information about mental health and divorce rates and the economy and jobs, and the impact on schools, so it doesn't surprise me that dr. birx, who's a health expert, is giving one set of inputs. it will be weighed by the president and his team against the err inputs as well will it change the outcome, that i can't speak to is it being considered, sure it is all of those things are considered in the process. >> just on covid, then, just because we were talking with dr. gottlieb about it before, from an economic perspective, you take all of those things into consideration would you argue that the strategy is working on a relative basis to

the strategy they have been pushing that is much more similar to what's taken place in parts of asia? for example. >> look, i'm not ever sure, and i think scott gottlieb was on just before this saying it would be unlikely we would be able to put in the same social restrictions they do in asia we're more similar culturally to europe they're continue to go struggle after a slow summer. they have rates higher than most of our states. i think it's different from place to place i think ron desantis did the right thing for his state. we can handle the extra cases because we have a health care system that can handle it. the key metric is how many people need health care and can't get it if you can take care of folks, especially folks that are ordinary healthy, the disease is not as deadly as we agreed yes, it is if you're at risk like my parents and folks with comorbidities. generally speaking if you have

the health care to take care of folks, you can deal with the disease. is it different than here and new york, yes, but i think we have managed to do as good a job as we could having the information we had available at the time. >> mick mulvaney, thank you for helping us through your thoughts on this election day we reesht appreciate it. and i imagine and hope we'll have the opportunity to talk to you very very soon thanks becky. >> when we come back, we'll talk markets and the election what it means for your money, your business, the future of the country and much more. the futures at this hour indicated up by about 400 points for the dow. that comes after a gain of more than 400 points yesterday. s&p up by 38, the nasdaq up by 62 we'll be right back.

investors awaiting the results of the 2020 presidential election our next guest thinks it doesn't matter who wins as long as there's a clear winner that's a common viewpoint, anyway here's a look at this morning's s&p winners and losers as we head to break, here's a look at election lines in philadelphia i don't know why they're still voting in pennsylvania we know already.

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transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we have been watching the futures and they have been higher all morning long. in fact, sharply higher. dow futures indicated up by 400 points that's been the case through

most of the morning after gains of better than 400 points. s&p indicated up by 37 1/2 points, and the nasdaq up by better than 56 there's new data that shows corporate insiders have not been buying on recent market drops. that research comes from washington service 380 executives and officers bought sthahares of their own companies in the month of october. that's the second lowest level in two years insider buyer trends correctly flagged the stock market bottom. joining is mike santoli. first up, what do you think about this corporate insider news >> it seems everybody has frozen the other data is how much corporate insider selling there is, and that has kind of gone away in october. it's somewhat neutral, absolutely not an outright buy signal the first half of october, market was going straight up it wasn't as if we were in pull back mode when corporate insiders become active

not outright bull skpish tellis. premarket, interesting set up, along with the gains in the s&p, this is the spider, s&p 500, etf, indicating 1.2% gain. 2 1/2% up this week. it brings us to an interesting spot if we open in the 33, 40 zone, this is 1/10 the value of the s&p, it's almost exactly halfway between the recent lows and highs. i see the gain as the market pulling itself into a neutral position the 50-day average is here right now. i would hesitate to interpret the market moves as any explicit or specific implicit forecast on what's going on in the election or the outcome t ten-year treasury yield, pronounced move. you're pretty close to those highs from june. that's pretty clear. 87 basis points, we can interpret this many ways is it about the size of the

deficit, fiscal stimulus i don't know, but clearly the market is gearing up for a little bit of an update. further weakness in long-term treasuries, the curve is steepening, whether it's an economic story or bonds story at the moment unclear. guys. >> and it's below 1% >> still, exactly. >> mike, stick around. here with the take on what investors should do in the midst of the election noise, head of derivative strategy for rbc cap pal markets. we talked about some of your thoughts, it's not really as important as who gets in is that we have a clear win skperks tnes has to do with the lag between the election and more stimulus, and i understand that, and i understand the market is focused on more fiscal stimulus. my question would be do we ever get past that, you know, what's right in front of our face in terms of stimulus, and worry just about structural issues, or

it's really just going to be that simple, knee jerk, stimulus good, markets go up. stimulus bad, we don't get it, markets go down. that's crazy >> i agree with you, joe i think it appears a little bit nearsighted but that has been how the market has been trading, i would say, you know, that's the most in front of your face topic that the market really wants to address, and the second is the covid vaccine it's interesting, i agree at this point that it's fairly consensus that the market is pricing, you know, a speedy resolution to the election and, you know, honestly the other way think about that is the idea that the election is contested is under priced. two quick data points, the november 4th options expiration and the november 6th options expiration has a five volatility point drop in that meaning the

market thinks that we'll get a resolution by november 4th it doesn't believe it will take until november 6th and you know, we in the options market we think a lot about tail events. my worry is that maybe a situation coming up where there is not a clear winner for a while, you know, that's really being under priced right now >> rates are so low, we get a couple of basis points, mike, maybe oil is more significant in terms of trying to figure out prospects for global growth. even oil is up, but that doesn't give us an indication of blue or red because of the stimulus discussion if it's blue a lot of stimulus, if it's red, more business friendly policies. >> oil is a staticy message. it's directly tied to mobility, and more shut downs in europe and elsewhere. as opposed to other types of commodities, and by the way, the

chinese stock market is basically at a high. you're seeing things like machinery stocks and other cyclical stocks in the u.s. behave relatively well at least on the manufacturing side, saying things are okay oil in itself to me has too many other inputs besides strong or weak economy >> amy, when would you expect, i talked about structural issues i bring up paul tudor jones who made the point, higher taxes, more regulations could impact margins, do you think there could be a total reset of stock or prices or financial assets six months from now if we went blue, senate and presidency? >> yeah, it's possible, and i think what you said, you know, specifically is that we have to see that that happens with the senate as well you know, honestly, it's the two factors, let's say the fiscal

stimulus goes quickly because it's a blue sweep. the secondary factor the market cares a lot about is vaccine even if, let's say, it's very clear that we're going to get the corporate tax policy that's, you know, been laid out as is, i think that if we get a vaccine, it's effectively administered, the market is still going to rally on that. and so it's difficult for trade for what potentially is bad news six months down the road when you have potentially good news it's to rotate heavily prior to the corporate tax plans. >> we'll be watching thank you. mike san t mike, thank you, you have no answers. questions, no answers. hopefully tomorrow we just don't know andrew >> coming up, a big hour ahead,

joe. john hope bryant and kevin o'leary are going to talk which candidate is better for small businesses as lock downs loom and a second round of stimulus has yet to be passed we'll have that debate. and facebook's former chief security officer is going to join us on the risks facing social media for election day. squawk returns with a big hour ahead right after this

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good morning, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. a beautiful, nice wind for the flag as you can see on top of the white house. i'm joe kernen, along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin u.s. equities futures at this hour indicated up 373 points on the dow after a strong session yesterday. it got back 40, 45% of last

week's 6% drop treasury yields continue to inch higher not at 1% yet but getting close to .9% anyway, and it's election day. i think. joe biden haves president donald trump. about 100 million voters have cast their ballots early, doubling 2016's total: and here you can see in-person voting in houston, live. and i am told in arkansas. oh, that's philly, thanks. thanks for -- jimmy kimmel center he's a young guy, he's had a big influence on the arts, i think i didn't realize it was that big. is that next to the colbert

center i probably should call it the fallon center. >> i am unfamiliar with the kimmel center. i'm looking it up as we speak to try to understand the history of the center i'm sure some of our viewers may know the center. i'm unfamiliar we are on the ground around the country to try to bring live reports from important battleground states. we're going to tell you all about what today's vote means for your markets, for your money, and brian sullivan is in the key city of grand rapids, michigan, this morning, and we're going to hear from him in a few minutes. before we do that, i want to get to frank holland in pennsylvania frank. >> reporter: more than a third of pennsylvania's registered voters have cast their ballot by mail already, a total of 3.1 million, and how those ballots are counted eventually will be a factor in the outcome of pennsylvania. pennsylvania seen as a key state to winning the white house

joe biden has a four point lead in our latest cnbc states of play poll, making a steady climb from april, where trump had a more than 5 point lead 52% of pennsylvania voters say they disapprove of the president's job performance. that has seen a steady increase since the march polling that was done before the president declared the covid-19 pandemic a national emergency back then, voters were basically split. not surprisingly, voters say the biggest issues are the economy and the pandemic political corruption is seen as a third concern. 47% say the economy is excellent to good. before the pandemic, 60% of the voters believed the economy was excellent to good. the poll numbers may be a bit misleading if you believe that people vote with their wallet or pocketbook 69% of pennsylvania voters say their personal finances are excellent to good. more than 3/4 say their job security is excellent to good.

back over to you >> frank one question for you, a question about pennsylvania, which is now that more than 3 million ballots, when do state officials expect those to be counted and offer results? is there guidance? >> reporter: that's a great question today the governor of pennsylvania is going to issue a psa telling everybody to be patient. that is going to be a process. here in pennsylvania, one of the few states they're only allowed to count ballots on election day. started at 7:00 a.m. today, and any ballots received by november 6th will also be counted. >> okay. frank, thank you we'll be visiting with you i'm sure throughout the day. cnbc election coverage will continue all day and throughout the day, and we're going to be back here at 5:00 a.m. eastern time tomorrow for an update on what we know, and the reaction in the markets

we've got a huge lineup of special guests for you tomorrow morning. so wake up early or maybe never go to sleep, becky. >> and those votes in pennsylvania will be counted through november 6th as long as they are postmarked by voting. it's the receipt and tabulation of the votes that could take time money matters are at the forefront of voters minds, we heard about pennsylvania in particular, but overall, 48% of likely voters in the latest cnbc research states of play survey says the economy was the most important issue facing the country followed by the covid-19 pandemic political corruption. joining us to talk more about the election, the economy, and specifically what the results could mean for american small business is kevin o'leary, chairman at o shares etfs shark tank, he's a shark tank cohost and cnbc contributor, and of course operation hope chairman and ceo john hope bryant

gentlemen we have been putting the two of you together through the election cycle it talk about what it does mean for small business, and now we're getting down to the wire john, i know you did a survey of the operation hope small businesses first of all, how many businesses is that, and second of all, what did you find? >> we have 4 million clients and did an overnight survey of probably a thousand of them, just a pop survey, for getting a sense of their pulse check i was surprised. it tracks a lot with what we have been saying on the program, they are concerned about things like funding and, actually they want assistance really with things like marketing their business and mentoring, which is similar to what we announced on your show with shopify, the 1 million black business initiative but the thing that's really driving their concerns is stability. they want a plan so they're oddly enough impacted by the lack of political instability in their business. half of course america's employees are employed by small business

nearly 50% say that the external effects of political instability is affecting their balance sheet and ability to operate their business >> we'll come back to that in a moment and dig deeper. kevin you're an investor in a large number of small businesses, what do you see with the businesses you're an investor, in what would you hope to see >> well because we have now gone through seven months of pandemic, i have a crystal clear view of what's happened to the different sectors i'm invested in i would take a slightly different position than john 80% of my companies are thriving, doing well, those not involved inentertainment or food services, cruise lines, which that kind of thing, and the wedding industry has been hur hurting. i'm a policy guy, becky. i look at policy people are trying to predict the outcome of this election it's impossible because i have always thought the polls should have a stick other than them

saying for entertainment value only does not predict outcome that's the same in every country in the world right now, but i am not an advocate now of massive stimulus for small business, and that may come as a surprise to you. most small businesses that are going to survive have figured out how to do that now i would rather see, and john and i disagree on this a little bit, most of this capital going to employees of sectors like the airline industry, which i think has to go through bankruptcy to get the right capacity, for people that are displaced in restaurants, i want to support those employees for the next 14 months regardless of who's president, and i will say one thing regarding the outcome, i got no policy from the debates except for that moment in the second debate when it became clear, and i'm just speaking now for what i'm going to make a prediction about the outcome tonight, and if biden in fact loses it will be because of a 40-second dialogue regarding shutting down thehydrocarbon

infrastructure where in my investing world, we think about 8 million jobs exist in the steel industry and the fracking industry many people don't realize, 41% of fracking is done on federal land, so if you close that land, i don't want to be biassed one president versus the other, but if you're a family in pennsylvania, in texas, in ohio, it affects your entire livelihood, and that was not lost in that debate. i think if biden loses, we will go back and see that as the pivotal point where he lost major swing states he should have never talked about shutting down hyd hydrocarbons, a big fail on that one. >> let's go back to small businesses for a moment, because i think you do have very different viewpoints, and it depends on where you sit kevin, you're an investors, you don't want zombie businesses john, you represent people who have poured life savings in the

business they started. the business world has changed for 20% of those industries. how do you come back at this, john, what's your take >> first of all, black people have been doing so much with so little for so long, that doesn't mean that's the way the world should be. we're living in different worlds kevin's a little bit closer to heaven, support for individual i may have had influence on him. he's still on the wrong side of the angels with the small business argument. even the fed chairman who's supporting kevin's business, kevin would be dead broke if the fed window closed, even the fed chairman is signaling that there should be additional stimulus for small businesses and he is doing what he can within his portfolio at the fed to open up capital and access to small business most of the country is small business 75% of the employee in this country is 500 employees or less half of this country is 100 employees or less, and of course

black and brown have pneumonia, we should be looking at the small, small businesses as engines for self-sustainability. that's what's drivingthis country, and we should be supporting them with a hand up, not a hand out, yes, individual support but should be supporting specifically small business, not as a direct stimulus but energy to say we're backing you he's got wall street on his side main street has nobody on its side main street needs a private banker right now as they say in my neighborhood right now. >> i'm all over main street. most of my companies are under 500 million in sales, so they are the backbone of america, and the difference, you know, between john and i is whether we should be supporting businesses that have basically gone to zombie status because of consumer behavior. and i keep using one that i do support, and i know that the entrepreneurs that are doing

this are ultimately going to zero, that's the movie theater business i don't think that's ever going to come back, and it should be going through bankruptcy, and replaced into useful productive real estate. pick and pack cloud kitchens, our digital sales up 75% the economy has made the pivot, and you know, john and i can disagree about supporting zombie businesses but i have to do a shout out for him because he did this thing with shopify and he really focused on giving underserved jurisdictions help with them, and that has had a huge impact of all the things you have done, john, i'm going to give you major credit for that shopify deal. all of my entrepreneurs are talking about it that was very cool we can disagree, but you did something great there. >> kevin, let me ask you, when we talk about zombie businesses, that's in the eye of the beholder, whether the movie theaters come back, whether the

hotels come back, whether restaurants come back. you're talking about what could be viable businesses if it weren't for the continuation of the covid virus. >> i agree with you. all i'm saying is let the market be the market. if any of that is true, if the market feels out that the movie theater business is viable, i guarantee capital will come rushing to that sector if the airline industry remains at full capacity, capital will be available i'm pointing out that we as taxpayers should let the market determine the efficiency level it wants, not just decide willy nilly that everybody gets money because we're in a pandemic phase. this is not the first or last pandemic we're going to face we have to let the market do its work that's all i'm suggesting. i can tell you, and i can guarantee with certainty, i will be reducing my travel costs by 22%, my real estate costs by 17. i anticipate my portfolio with visibility that i have is going to generate, instead of 15%

pretax, 17 to 18 the s&p is smelling that out, too. we have a new efficient america emerging, let it happen. get the government out of the way, and watch what happens. we will survive in pandemic, and we'll be a much more efficient economy as a result of it. i don't want to talk about silver linings around pandemics, but the digital silver lining that's emerged here is very powerful stand back and let it happen >> john, i feel bad, i stepped in the middle of a moment that you two had where you were kind of coming together and bridging the gaps go ahead and respond to whatever you want that kevin had to say, what he was talking about or the props he was throwing you too. >> yeah, this just proves in america, you can disagree without being disagreeable kevin is a lovely guy. he's just wrong on this point. according to his philosophy, i'm a zombie business, less than

$500 million in revenue, and i'm considered a great success in america. this is a problem with my rich friends, they just live in a different world. like most companies in this company have 1 to 20 employees, less than a hundred employees. that's who we should be backing. that used to be walmart, sam walton with a pickup and high school education, a business that's the largest retailer in the world, that's who we should be backing so we have a future for the country and not just looking through the rear view mirror kevin needs to do a tour of the neighborhood with a mask, with me, let me show him the hood, not hollywood, the hood, let us get out of wall street, and go to main street these are two different economies. the investor economy is doing well because of the fed. the fed window makes it easy for him to have this conversation. it's like he's having a war with an air soft gun. you can say it because the feds covered you. main street doesn't have the fed. main street has us, and by the

way, the private sector has done a good job of stepping in where the government has not i need to say that, pay pal, chase, a bunch of companies have stepped in and shown real leadership when there wasn't a plan during this pandemic likes in the 60s by the way. >> john, i can guarantee you that hollywood doesn't roll out the red carpet for kevin o'leary when he comes out there, in terms of his politics, believe me s so o'leary, i almost stood up and took a deep breath, and saluted the flag when you talked about our future with what's going to happen. do you think that so many people that the market is indicating it has no preference about which way the election goes? do you think if it's a blue wave that your future is as bright as what you have no preference which way we go in terms of regulation, and taxes and as long as there's stimlust aftulur the election, it's all that matters? >> i'm in the camp that says if

the message is more regulation, higher corporate taxes, abandoned energy independence, that is not good for the market and it's not good for america. but i don't want to get into the fray of one, you know, president over another policy matters to me, joe, and i didn't hear any of it at all during the chaos of the first debate, and i heard a crystal clear -- >> you can't figure out there could be some policy differences. >> i want to stay out of trouble. >> you're a wimp. >> if you think raising taxes helps the market, you're mistaken. >> i guess you didn't see bernie interviewing, what is it, you know, the what's it called, aoc, and ilhan omar, you didn't see the squad. there's going to be tug and pull elizabeth warren is not going away you can't figure out there may

be some policy differences between biden and trump? is that because you're from canada you have no opinion? >> i have an opinion i raised my family in boston i'm in elizabeth warren's backyard, the chance she'll be involved in a mandate is zero, so i'm not worried about that. the reason is she'll be replaced with a republican. >> she's got a voice in his ear. >> that's okay that would not be a good policy for america because that would be bad for banks for sure. i can't help but show my allegiance to the markets. i like policy. >> exactly well, say it loud, and say it proud. >> i think we lost john. i don't know he may have gotten so disgusted with the whole discussion. no, he didn't. >> no, no, i was impressed by how these two came together for this look, not everybody agrees but that's okay. diversity of opinion works i thank john and kevin for being

here. >> he knew how ridiculous that was. >> i saw him but it rimes. coming up, the plans for facebook, twitter, and you tube to prevent misinformation from spreading tonight. as we head to a break. here's a look at people voting in little rock, arkansas stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc what do you look for when you trade?

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a live shot of the white house on election day as the battle for that house continues. when we return, the virtual war rooms rooms inside of facebook, twitter and you tube we're going to show you how america's biggest social media companies are gearing up for tonight and debate who's doing it right, and maybe who's not. a reminder, we've got a big show and a huge lineup of guests tomorrow morning on "squawk box" to help us make sense of the election results hopefully we'll have some and what they may mean for the markets and your money joining us is an illustrious group. we start at 5:00 a.m. eastern

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people who get it.

after facebook, twitter, and you tube were used to manipulate voters four years ago, the companies are working extra hard to protect their platforms and their users. jul julia boorstin joins us with a look at the steps they're

taking i think we have seen those steps in the past couple of weeks, but anyway, go ahead. >> joe, it's not just about preventing voter manipulation but also about preventing the spread of misinformation that could spark civil unrest after the polls close. facebook has been preparing for today's vote for four years. we went into its war room for the 2018 midterms two years ago. take a look at this video. this year the elections operation center is virtual, hundreds of people meeting five times a day and smaller teams meeting more frequently as part of the operation facebook will remove a post, if it incites violence, or has voter suppression effects or label posts, especially those from politicians claiming victory. and it will show users a notification saying no winner has been chosen until results are verified after the election facebook is suspending all political advertising and issue advertising to reduce misinformation about election results. now, twitter, which unlike

facebook didn't accept political ads for this presidential and political season, it will label and hide tweets with false claims by politicians and influencers. users will have to click past the warnings twitter is linking to accurate information atop the news feed after the election, twitter will label or remove tweets claiming victory before a race is called before authoritative sources skch you tube will take down videos that interfere with the voting process, and following the election, you tube is halting political advertising and promoting what it calls a fact check panel above election related search results so the heat is on. all three of these companies, and they have been spending so much money and time, andrew, over the past four years to prevent any issues around this election >> julia, thank you for that report millions of americans will be glued to social media tonight for the latest election results

but there's a very good chance we won't have all the votes tallied for days, and according to the latest cnbc change research state of play survey, 29% of likely voters think we'll know who won tonight, with the majority thinking it will take a week or more for more tonight and in the coming days, we want to welcome the former chief security officer at facebook, led the investigation into platform manipulation, following gt 2016 election it's great to see you this morning. julia went through all the of the efforts that the big social media companies have undertaken, and the question is this going to buy them any goodwill given the larger debate that seems to be around them whether it comes to 230 or potentially even brae breaking them up. >> i think the companies have done a pretty good job of responding to specifically foreign interference, as we saw in 2016 and a little bit of

2018 and as julia talked about, there's large war kroorooms, tes searching out potential foreign actors, and we've seen cooperation with government entities, to shut down this stuff. there's a broad political consensus, we don't want foreign actor, such as the russian research agency, involved in 2016 interfering in our elections. what's happening is they are bumping up against the lack of consensus on what their responsibility is domestically it is in the domestic fear they're going to have problems because a vast majority of disinformation our team is tracking as part of the intersection integrity is coming from domestic sources, verified domestic sources you're not talking from the grass roots but pushed by known influencers with very large platforms who are able to speak out to large numbers of people via social media, and inject their ideas into the overall media ecosystem. >> let me ask you, you know,

just last night, president trump tweeted about pennsylvania, raised the prospect that the vote is not going to be proper, and the possibility of civil unrest, twitter put a label on it is that appropriate? is it not? does it politicize things? what do you do about it? >> in my opinion, it's appropriate. i think the model that most of the companies are taking when it comes to the president and his official surrogates are to treat the things that the president and his campaign says as news worthy, but then to use their own first amendment rights to label that content with additional context and so i think you will probably see this today multiple times, either when the president does things like imply there's going to be political violence, which i think is completely inappropriate. the job of the president is to unite the country not to pour gasoline on the fire and to imply there's going to be violence if he doesn't get his way is a totally inappropriate

thing. the companies have a first amendment right to their own speech, and for them to not take his content down but to label it to say we disagree and we believe it's either not factual or it's dangerous is totally appropriate. the challenge is going to be if the president declares victory prematurely tonight, and what we have seen from twitter and facebook, they have both said if it hasn't been called by a certain group of well respected predictors, as being done tonight, which is quite a large possibility that we won't have an answer tonight, then they will label his content, but this is going to be a challenge for all of social media and the media. the truth is this is a problem for the traditional media as well if the president of the united states gets at the podium of the white house and says i won or i'm losing because of fraud, and then has no evidence of that, then that's going to be covered on cnbc, on nbc, on msnbc, on all your partner stations live what we want from the media is context to be added which is

what now the social media companies are trying to do themselves too. >> but alex, here's the issue, and i don't disagree with what you're talking about being appropriate or inappropriate but this gets to this issue, you've talked about the social media companies engaging in their first amendment rights the second that they start engaging in their first amendment rights, they start to look much more like a publisher, much more like a media organization unto themselves, and thus far they have had liability protection, and so the second that they start jumping into the conversations in the way even that you have described, do you believe it changes the dynamic? >> it legally does not to be very clear, the law everybody is talking about, section 230 does not say publisher platform what section 230 says is that companies that carry other people's speech do not have civil liability for that speech in the case that you can sue the actual speaker but you can't see the intermediary i think the companies are responsible for the speech they personally put out

and so if mark zuckerberg says something as a facebook employee, and it's on facebook, facebook is responsible for it what facebook is not responsible for is for what the president says and for them carrying the president's content, and so we have to be really careful about disimb the speech they're carrying versus the speech from their own employees. in the situation where they're labeling stuff it's pretty well entlis established that they have a first amendment right to do so, just like cnbc has the right to carry the president live and add your own editorial voice if they say something wrong in their own voice, they will be legally liable labels the presidents tweets are going to have no legal, because that's core protected speech under the first amendment. >> alex stamos, great having you with us on election day. i'm sure we'll be talking to you over the next several days as we see things play out. appreciate your perspective this morning.

>> thanks, andrew. >> becky. when we are back we are on the ground in michigan asking a question that might determine the outcome of today's election, who's going to win union, and blue collar voters don't miss our big post election show, and guests including barry dillard, barry sternlicht and more it all starts at 5:00 a.m. eastern on "squawk box" tomorrow stay tuned you're watching cnbc congratulations! welcome to the aflac program. aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time!

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there's a group of mid western and rust belt states that all present the same existential question for joe biden and president trump. who's going to win union, labor and blue collar voters brian sullivan joins us right now. he's on the ground there, and has more on this front brian? >> reporter: yeah, that's what broke down in 2016, and how trump scaled that blue wall, full, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, becky. obama won michigan by 450,000 votes in 2012. trump won here by fewer than 11,000, but a win is a win, and both candidates certainly have been eyeing michigan trump was here in grand rapids, in the state twice yesterday, biden with obama was here actually over the weekend, so this is a key state. 16 electoral college votes, probably more key for trump. talked to frank luntz earlier, if biden wins florida, he

probably needs to win one of those three states to get over 270. donald trump probably needs to win three if not four of the states, including pennsylvania of course, maybe a minnesota, that's an outlier, though, and ohio as well that's why the president spent his last night here last night as he did in 2016. either way, whatever happens, the voter turnout expected to break records. more than 5 million here in the state are expected to ultimately vote we've had just over half of that request absentee ballots the polls just opened in person a couple of minutes ago, after this, we're going to go out, poll around, talk to people. yesterday, becky, we did go up to belmont, which is in kent county where we are, and people had already lined up to submit their absentee ballot. we talk a lot about election chaos, and let's certainly hope that does not happen i can tell you, michigan nice, i guess, everybody super polite, waiting in line, sometimes more than an hour, you can tell it is cold, but everyone was just standing outside, i chatted up with a couple of folks there,

and everybody was super calm and nice, and let's hope that's the way it goes. either way, there's a question, is there anybody left to vote, i can tell you that in michigan, becky, there certainly are probably just under half of the state will vote in person today. the polls close at 9:00 eastern time tonight, although election officials like other states have said, we may not know the ultimate outcome for a couple of days the change research poll has joe biden up by 7%, and i can tell you just driving around those neighborhoods saw a lot of biden signs, those suburban voters where we were are going to be the key to kent county, maybe the key to michigan as well, and don't lose sight of this, becky, there's also an important significasenate race maybe more important to the white house. and john james has tightened the polls, down about 5%, but the senate race in michigan also is key here too >> brian also down in georgia,

too. the key senate race. getting keyer and keyer they're saying but you've got michigan and georgia. not just the big -- we've got all that to look forward to, brian. anyway, joining us to talk about the economy in the next presidential administration and whoever heads it, former council of economic advisers chairman in the obama administration he's now a professor with the university of chicago's booth school of business andrew olman who served as national economic council deputy director, and deputy assistant to the president for the economic policy under president trump. i know where austin is going to go he has been on a lot, andrew, and so let's start, austin, i'll let you get to covid you can do that, and the post-covid economy but let's start with the pre-covid economy, was it really good, andrew, because austin doesn't like the tax cuts. he thinks that even the wage gains were, you know, were not as good as under obama

do you think that the pre-trump economy improved on the obama economy? >> yeah, i don't think there's any question that the success the president brought in us terms of the economy in the lead to the covid shock, you say unemployment rates go to historic lows. that's an impeer caempirical fa saw unemployment reach levels most people thought were impossible to reach. you look at forecasts back from 2015 and '16, no economists thought you could get unemployment down to low 3s. i think that's something all americans should be happy about it, and really proud of that success we were able to see the first three years of the administration. >> but you know how figures work i mean, i constantly hear about the obama stock market it started down 50%, so you double it, that's a pretty good

start to double it, you know, when it's down 50% the job additions during the obama years from 11 or 12%, down to 7%, whatever they were, 6%, there were more jobs added under obama than under trump, and that's what you're going to hear, andrew. >> i just don't think that em peerically you look -- you saw unemployment rates, again, steadily move down, when most people think they couldn't get there. you look at wage gains, and compare the wage gains for lower income workers between the two periods, and i don't think there's any question that, you know, in the lead up to the covid shock that the united states really had finally that broad-based economic blue collar boom that, you know, economists in the country have been really yearning for for years the president and republicans in congress really had the right economic recipe to produce just a remarkable economy and i don't

know, you know, seems to me we all should be pleased about that. >> austin, you know why i know everything you're going to say, because you know i see you on that other network, like every night, and you know, you're smart because instead of just operating in the echo chamber, you go over to where you're not preaching to the choir and you tell them on that other network about what's really going on i know where you're going to go. take it away >> you know where i'm going to go because we talked about what the growth rate would be under the trump administration, and you thought it would be higher than it was, and you lost. >> it was 2-9, and it was about 3, and it was 2-9. you had the worst economic growth recovery in post war history, the worst one. you had 0% interest rates, qe 1,

2, 3, you doubled debt and still couldn't get to 2% >> the lowest growth rate until donald trump, and now donald trump is the worst it took donald trump, i thought he would be able to continue the longest boom in american history for a long time. it really only took him 2 1/2 years to screw it up and we're in a recession >> but you're talking about covid, see,we can argue about that, but covid -- >> manufacturing before covid. manufacturing was in recession in 2019 before covid ever got here because of the trade wars remember those >> i remember those. >> andrew, tell me about manufacturing. is it -- did trump ruin manufacturing or help on the margin before covid. >> i think the administration has had a very pro manufacturing agenda, and i think if you go back those workers who were able to be employed, thanks to the economic policies, they would

say the economy certainly was improved under the trump administration you see the president finally tackle issues with some of our trading partners to deal with some of those problems in manufacturing, and a much better regulatory environment for entrepreneurs, especially in manufacturing. i think there's no question there that, you know, we have a much better economic environment for manufacturers than we did four years ago >> go ahead, austan. >> i mean, hundreds of thousands of people in manufacturing, fewer are working than they were before trump got there he's going to be the first president in the history of our data who has fewer jobs than when he started. and 27% of the country thinks we're on the right track i mean, the bungling of the response to the virus is the first in a series of things that they have done dreadfully wrong, and i think this approach of cutting taxes for high income people and big corporations

didn't work when we tried it before, and it's not working now. >> but most people, there's a majority of people that think trump has been better on the economy, austan, that's above 50 you're throwing in the covid numbers again. >> joe, i would add, just it's important to note too, certainly the covid shot had a big hit to the -- a lot of segments of the economy including manufacturing, small businesses but i think if you look at the response of the administration put forward, it is pretty remarkable within about a month of covid striking, we already conceived of the c.a.r.e.s. act, and really within 60 days, c.a.r.e.s. act was passed, and implemented, providing critical support to not only manufacturers, but other small businesses and entrepreneurs the life blood of the u.s. economy. i think it is hard to find an economic package that has been as successful as the c.a.r.e.s. act that was conceived and implemented so quickly you compare back to the 2008 downturn and how long it took to

get economic response legislation through, you know, this is no comparison. i think when it came down to this noneconomic event comes a-long and hits manufacturers and the economy, the administration was right there with a highly effective response which i will note was passed by 96-0 in the senate and on a bipartisan basis that is a textbook response you want to see. >> i know you want in, i was going to ask if you want to raise taxes with everything, the way it is right now, but you go ahead, i'll defer to you, andrew >> no, no -- >> andrew ross sorkin, other andrew >> austin, if you can, answer joe's question and i got a quick follow-up for andrew. >> well, i thought -- i agreed with a lot of what andrew said i thought the c.a.r.e.s. act was an excellent move. i will remind you that under the obama administration they did pass the stimulus in first three weeks that he was in office. but i think the president

deserves credit for campaigning for the c.a.r.e.s. act i think he does not deserve credit for not campaigning for more rescue and relief money, and kind of stopping the negotiations when we desperately needed it. on whether we should raise taxes now, the big corporations and high income people haven't had a recession. it is only for ordinary americans that the economy has been suffering if you look at the top 100 billionaires, their wealth has gone up by $700 billion during this crisis. so them complaining, oh, no, we don't want to have to go back to paying our fair share of taxes at a time like this is kind of crazy. and in a system where the president can be a billionaire personally, and pay $750 of taxes, that system is screwed up and we need to change that system >> right all right. we got to leave it there, austin there is some -- some counters to all of this

austin, i can find out by watching fox where you -- you headed over there later. >> i'm headed to your house, joe. >> and we're going to have a meal, a meal, some taco bell stuff like i promised. andrew, other andrew, thank you. i'll toss it over to andrew ross sorkin >> we're going to get -- thanks -- we'll get to cramer's first take on the market on this very big day in a moment live voting under way in ohio now. stay tuned "squawk box" returns right after this

over to our good friend, jim cramer, over at cnbc's headquarters jim, we're looking at another market open, higher, what do you think it means >> first, we got to see which part of the market opens higher. yesterday around 4:00 to 5:00 a.m. it was all microsoft and all alphabet and amazon. that group quickly faded we had this move in to value, orchestrated by jpmorgan piece that people are talking about saying values are ready to -- coiled spring and we have more people today recommending bp and

royal dutch, give me a break growth is always going to be paramount in the time of covid if there were no covid, we would say value is out of whack that's not going to change the scenario. >> are the futures moving as a function of the election, which is do say is this a -- is this signaling a biden win and people feel like we're going to get an answer quickly, do they think it is a trump win what is this >> i think that it is a lot of part of what you said about biden. that we're going to get an answer quickly not sure which way it is going to get i think people want to get ahead of that. i think no matter who wins, you have a quick dip and you have to buy. the market is simplistic we try to make the market like some sort of einsteinian philosophy are we done with this nonsense can we focus on earnings again people want to buy, so right now people are getting ahead of that i don't know

i think it is fatuous. but it is what is going to happen >> jim, we will see you -- >> andrew, andrew, i got to ask you something. >> yes, zblsir. >> what was the feeling about dr. gottlieb when you asked him for the third time who he was going to vote for? >> i know. >> i just ask the questions. i just ask the questions >> that's the point. that's the point that was the point. >> such great tv i love gottlieb, but holy cow! >> that's the point. >> great work. >> yeah. >> thanks. >> thanks. >> seema mody joins us now with a look at some of the top stocks on the move in the premarket. >> good to see you let's start with the cruise lines, carnival joining royal caribbean in canceling u.s. sailings for the remainder of the year while the cdc did lift the no sail order. officials did carve out stringent requirements that the cruise lines will need to adopt

before they get the approval to sail, that does include conducting mock voyages. the cruise lines are pushing back their start date. carnival down .6% in premarket keep in mind, down 70% so far this year. let's pivot to one stock that is moving higher, wayfair shares soaring 13%, a profit in the third quarter as consumers spend more on home furnishings during the pandemic. active customers rose more than 50% compared to the same period last year. lastly, look at ferrari, reporting better than expected earnings for the third quarter after a difficult second quarter when it was hit by production constraints at its italian manufacturing facility and slarz shares are up about 4.6% back to you, becky. >> seema, thank you very much. we have time for a final check on the markets dow up 360 points, up 400 to 350 all morning long you are going to continue to see the gang picking this up and

running with this. those add to the gains of yesterday, 425 points. balance that out with last week where we were down 1800 and anything goes. folks, we will see you back here tomorrow, special election coverage for "squawk box" at 5:00 a.m right now, we hand it over to "squawk on the street. see you tomorrow good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber election day is here futures are building on monday's rally, which was best dow gain since october 7. send-year yields higher, dollar weak as investors position for the outcome and when we get it our road map begins with nearly 100 million votes already cast before polls opened this morning. stocks are rallying as markets brace for a busy day >> we have some breaking news in this last half hour, the shanghai