running with this. those add to the gains of yesterday, 425 points. balance that out with last week where we were down 1800 and anything goes. folks, we will see you back here tomorrow, special election coverage for "squawk box" at 5:00 a.m right now, we hand it over to "squawk on the street. see you tomorrow good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber election day is here futures are building on monday's rally, which was best dow gain since october 7. send-year yields higher, dollar weak as investors position for the outcome and when we get it our road map begins with nearly 100 million votes already cast before polls opened this morning. stocks are rallying as markets brace for a busy day >> we have some breaking news in this last half hour, the shanghai stock exchange

suspending ant group listing major issues, this is days before the largest ipo of all time we'll give you the latest details. and social media election strategies how facebook and twitter aim to tackle misinformation on their platforms as voters head to the polls and beyond whatever beyond means, carl. >> david, thanks guys, we're going to be talking all day and all night about arizona, florida, georgia, north carolina, jim, goldman's got a note out just now saying because it would be difficult if the president does not win any of those states, quote, there is a good chance the election outcome will be clear on election night. >> right, i think that that's what the market is saying. so the collectionive voice of the market, both yesterday and not just the morning, but when the nasdaq rallied in the afternoon and today with the futures, people say, we cannot

afford after last week with the market being down, we can't afford to wait for the outcome we have to presume the outcome is going to lead to some sort of conclusion, period and conclusion is good, last week was the week that i think anticipated we would have had this week, and david, sometimes the market is too smart for its own good a lot of people got out last week saying i got to get out ahead of what is a big decline on monday and tuesday. and they fooled themselves the traders were just -- they were doing so much activity, david, i mean, the idea that the nasdaq was getting crushed and then they raised the nasdaq. what is that i think people were afraid i don't want to miss what happens after we know who becomes president. and it is not going to be as contested with the hundreds of lawyers as we think. >> i think many of us hope that's the case. because otherwise it is going to be a more difficult period and people are girding for that possibility, jim let's not forget the path of covid, what is going on around

the world. i'm curious you're referencing the declines we saw last week how much and can you figure out how much is dependent on and/or connected to what are continued rising cases around the world, continued -- i don't want to count them lockdowns, not here, and it doesn't appear we're going there, or how much is just trying to position for whatever the election outcome is at this point. >> i think the way you monitor that is oil. i think oil is a true arbiter of growth right now because the supply is pretty constant, but the big sign of a belief of a decline and demand that live in the eurozone. i think what that said was things are getting dramatically worse. they seem to have completely lost control of it there are a lot of people, the so-called anti-maskers saying, you know what, they have all these rules, and it is not cutting it down. the rules aren't being enforced. all right. the rules are not being enforced in these countries and one of the reasons why

things are so out of control is that they're not shutting anybody down, like you didn't -- they visited you, they said, you're down -- the place -- >> our country is out of control. >> wisconsin is an area where everyone is so proud that the bars are wide open but there is a belief, carl, i think we all feel this, there is a belief that the president's view is, you know what, if you're young and healthy, knock yourself out, and if you're worried, stay home that's another way to approach things, it is a laissez-faire approach, it is leading to a map that comes out every day that shows there are areas more laissez-faire andthose are the areas where there are more people sick. president rebuts that by saying, no, more people being tested they're not -- you know, obviously, those things are not responsive that is circular reasoning but, you know, when you contest it, people just say you're

anti-trump >> that's why we pay so much attention, jim, to hospitalizations, morgan stanley with a note today saying 14 states are seeing essentially per capita hospitalization ratios that are the likes of which triggered the eu lockdowns, south dakota, north dakota, montana, all of that, they also say that the rate of growth in the u.s. has so far surpassed their bear case, running two weeks ahead. scott gottlieb on squawk earlier today talking about whether or not we may see an extended period of a thousand deaths per day. take a isten >> the sheer fact we'll be infecting so many people now is probably going to mean the death toll gets well above a thousand for a sustained period of time it is a grim couple of months that we face, i think this is a last sort of acute phase of this pandemic that we need to go through and things will get better in 2021 we need to hunker down and be careful over the next couple of months

>> jim, that has been his running theme, it is the toughest period we face. >> you know, my daughter lives in spain, she teaches english, and in middle school, in madrid, and everyone thinks that spain had a very serious lockdown, she were to go -- she was allowed to go out once a week to go to the grocery store or accompanied by a policeman and they thought they won i have a business in italy i thought we would go over there and he didn't win, nobody won there was a relaxation the likes of which was, hey, you know what, happen kri dy days are he. we can't afford to do what they did. they genuinely believe that covid was beaten, like in china, like in korea, so masks off, have a dynamite time, open the bars, and it failed. >> it did. it did it is not gone you saw the memo leaked from

debbie burks, which said there is no vaccine right now, no therapeutics, it is raging out of control and we have to wear masks. >> regeneron is so good but they have 50,000. >> they'll have 300,000 doses. many of the cases -- a number of them may be asymptomatic, won't need the monoclonal antibody cocktail that regeneron has, but there is no way to keep up, which is why i continue to come back to the small molecule antiviral, for example, that merck is developing as more important. you can manufacture so much more of it. millions and millions of doses. >> right that can scale. >> yes >> and mr. frazer is -- the ceo of merck is not going to come on here and say, listen, we got the drug >> no. >> there is a reason why the president was bad one day and super man the next day, regeneron works. but meg's whole reporting was, look how hard this thing is to

make and it was great because it showed the -- they're not keeping it back. what a -- what people pay for that is not the way it should be allocated. but, again, we have a state system, not a federal system so i think that regeneron, we don't really know how that's going to be -- how it is going to work. there is an article today in -- everywhere, this university of arizona study about quidle and how their 15-minute test doesn't work that's great so throw that out. i have thermofisher on today they make the pcr machines, they had one of the most amazing quarters preannounced. they have a pcr machine that does 6,000 tests a day that is what we need the president would make that political. that's the reason why we're sicker than we think but we are not sicker, i don't even know anymore. but the fact is, david, that thermofisher, which is the foremost pcr machine, they cannot make enough 6,000 a day is not enough. >> no. and increased testing still does

help a great deal by identifying where there are clusters at this point, again, as we said, seems to be raging out of control in a number of states. i like to bring up the ten year, the 20 year thermo, just to show how you can create real value over time. marc casper, wow. >> he does not promote himself. >> they're going to try to -- >> do we have a chart? >> we're going to bring it up. for one moment, we do hear occasionally wanting to celebrate some of the people who are extraordinary. look at that look at that >> well, that's what happens when you're the -- i met a number of people that work at thermofisher and they're proud they had the bft machiest machi best pcr, that's what -- anybody who swabs and it comes back, that could be thermo. >> they have been creating val you for a long time. >> ultimate diagnostic company, they create diagnostics, we know that roche can do it, roche is involved

danaher is another it is the greatest business in the world to be in that business that's the gold rush >> testing and diagnostics, absolutely meantime, we're going to be on obviously election watch all day today. eamon javers has a look at some of the states at play on this election day morning hey, eamon. >> reporter: the range ofilitie still wide open on election day. this is done by change research, we're looking at the battleground states, the swing states now and likely voters in those swing states we have been following them all election season. this is our final one. what we find is joe biden has a lead in all of them, in five of the six he's at 50% or better. states like arizona, 50% wisconsin, 53% michigan 51% then look at north carolina, 47, 49, that's close to the 1.7%

margin of error in this poll so call north carolina a draw right now. the only state where biden is under 50% in our polling that would indicate if you average it all out that joe biden has about a 50 to 46 lead over donald trump in those battleground swing states that are going to make the difference tonight. all of that suggests maybe a good night for joe biden then look at this number here, this is the trump handling of the economy number and we see some movement very late, it is a small movement, we see movement to the president here, you look at this number, 51, 49 for the president and that number is moving in the president's direction since october 21st now above water on the handling of the economy that's his strong suit and calling card it is moving late in a small way, but moving in his direction. is that an indication of something for the president to hang his hat on today in some

battleground state sstates we'll have to wait and see tonight. >> eamon javers, thank you so much nbc special coverage of your money, your vote, begins tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll take a break here, futures looking pretty good as we build on monday's rally. we'll talk about some of the dollar weakness this morning as well it is one thing to move futures, quite another to move the market as wh s ts rnitweeehimoing. we're back in a moment when you switch to xfinity mobile,

you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. that's simple, easy, awesome. visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile.

welcome back want to share some very big news that has been developing this morning out of china as our viewers know, we have been following the prospective ipo of ant financial, the largest initial public offering, not listing here in the united states, but ready to list in hong kong. and on the relatively new star market in shanghai and, again, distributing shares around the world, including to many u.s.-based investors. all of that appears this morning to be going up in smoke. the shanghai exchange and we also know hong kong as well have both essentially suspended the listing this morning it is very much not completely clear, at least at this point, what is at stake here. we'll get to eunice eun to help us figure out what is going on

the capital reserves that the company has, regulation in general, reporting that jack ma, the founder of alibaba, former ceo, chairman of that company who ant was created under, it was once part of alibaba, their ali pay system was developed there, that he had a meeting with regulators, he had been somewhat critical of the regulatory function. but, again, a lot we don't know, what we do know is shanghai and hong kong stock exchanges have suspended this, and there is concern that it will go to the heart of the business model, which is that they'll need a much higher reserve, reserve requirement, which, of course, would impact their ability to make money i can't emphasize enough the gray market trading going on over the last few days in this stock really a lot of things to unwind let's get to eunice yoon who can join us now and perhaps shed

more light on what is a developing situation to say the least. >> yeah, that's right. the shanghai stock market just as you said just tonight had said that it is delaying the ipo and the reason that they gave was that they said that the ant had recently reported to china's securities regulator about the significant changes in the regulatory environment and that this major development, the exchange said, might make ant group fall short of listing requirements on the information disclosure as you pointed out, the ipo was supposed to take place, both in shanghai as well as hong kong on thursday but now it is not going to happen for an undisclosed period of time. we spoke to ant, they issued a statement and said they were notified by authorities and that because of that, as a consequence of hong kong would also suspend its ipo

in terms of some of the speculation that you had talked about, this does come after jack ma as well as other top executives as ant had been summoned on monday, to talk to the regulators at the banks, the banking regulators, the securities regulator, currency regulators, about this ipo, and it also comes after a speech he made on friday, which was very widely reported in which he was highly critical of regulators for not supporting the fin tech industry enough. he also made some comments on the chinese economy, which raised eyebrows because when asked about the chinese economy, he said -- and if the chinese economy has systemic risk, he said the chinese economy wouldn't have systemic risk because it has no system and as you all know, jack ma is quite a flamboyant guy, he's a very, you know, kind of is free and easy with his language, and because of that, that could --

that is raising speculation among the tech community as to whether or not this is seen as punishment from the regulators for his very vocal criticism of the chinese system. >> eunice, again, these are reports that we're getting that the online loan regulation and obviously online loans are an important component of ant's business, that they will force the co-lending ratio to go to a minimum of 30% right now it is 1% that's where you make your money. do you have any confirmation that's possible? that will up end the business model of ant if and when it does finally list >> yeah, i don't have any confirmation of that, but there has been quite a bit of criticism and concern about what people here see as systemic risk within fin tech, that ant would be able to -- would be given a pass because it wouldn't quite -- it is kind of, as you

said, living in this gray area and the regulations aren't there yet for this company so a lot of concern about that, and it looks as though that could be one of the reasons why -- that's why people are saying this could be one of the reasons why ant group is being more heavily scrutinized by the regulators. >> eunice, it is a story we'll be watching closely as we were getting ready for this thing to start trading on thursday. largest ipo of all time. but, carl, doesn't look like it is coming anytime soon and if it does, it is business model may look a lot different >> yeah, big story this morning, guys david, thanks. we'll take a break as we said earlier, futures look strong here. ten-year yield almost 88 basis points this morning. we'll get a mad dash and opening bell in the next few minutes ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like... like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most plus $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

monday's gain, best for the dow since 2007 best for the s&p strength in futures on this election day tuesday ntueaf" uawk on the street coins ter a short break. don't go anywhere. a weekend tr. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪

woman: after covid, my hours got so we can't pay our bills. and now our family budget is gonna be hit hard with prop 15.

the yes on 15 ads say it only raises taxes on big corporations. that's not true - we're all going to pay. $11 billion in new property taxes will get passed on to small businesses and farms. they'll raise prices... ...higher gas, health care, food...even day care. we can't make ends meet now. families can't afford 15. no on prop 15.

time for a mad dash as we get ready for an opening bell on this election day. jim, pay pal, of course, still has a market value above bank of america, but maybe in doubt today, i don't know. >> oh, please. having a better year listen to this, you'll see the stock down, why? because they did say there is going to be some problems with it the ebay transition, that's not good but, you know what, do you mind if we think more than just a week out dan schulman says the digitization of the global economy combined with the rise of digital wallets will drive our growth over the next decade. that's next decade is better than the next four hours, 4 billion transactions, growing 30% and for the crypto maniacs,

they are making it easy to do a little crypto action so i think this was venmo plus 65, let it settle, whoever is in it enough to sell it, let them sell it, taking a little profit, and then you probably want to scoop some up. >> yeah. generated -- it was down this quarter, but $4 billion so far in free cash flow, but it does trade at some hefty multiples, jim. >> okay. >> okay. >> okay. it is taking over the world. >> it is >> yes >> it is not completely disconnected from our last story on ant, which goes to digital payments, digital -- >> yeah. venmo is incredible. these are -- this is a younger generation thing how hard i fought to get that macy's card, i needed a little credit pay pal is the way a generation around the world, a younger generation than you, i may add. >> plenty of them. >> is doing -- is taking this

up, and, yes, there are people who don't like their forecast. feel the forecast was showing a dramatic slowdown in 3% to 5% head winds from ebay and, you know, 17.18% -- 17% to 18% guide ans when the thing was growing 41%. i say let it come in it usually isn't over in one day because the people say, dan shulman is signalling that it is slowing down he signals every quarter that it is slowing down. and then, david, it proceeds to become bigger and bigger i know comparisons are odious. but you're doing one with bank of america i remember people said, tesla passes ford, that's going to be the day that henry ford rolls over in his grave. and it was gm, then gm and ford, then ford, gm twice, and enough. >> right right. it is bigger than bank of america at the beginning of trading today by $12 billion in market cap, 220 billion to 208. >> got their balance sheet.

>> had a better year >> babe ruth, thank you. >> all right, guys, getting close to the opening bell in a little over a minute here. one quick comment on stimulus, treasury downgrading q4 estimates of borrowing basically a signal that stimulus is a lot less certain now than it was a couple of months ago. we haven't talked about it in a couple of weeks. i wonder at what point is the market convinced that because ism was the best since 18 we can get through to january if we need to? >> yes, there are enough senators in the republican senators who believe in the v, the v economy, and pmi was incredibly strong. the industrial sector remains strong i had waste management on last night, business has gotten very good and, by the way, he recycles newspapers, okay. well, the demand from the box

companies is great so the traditional indicators, chemicals, are all much stronger and that's because there is a part of the economy that is on fire and it is the industrial economy, believe it or not it is not the service economy. service economy country, but people don't think that. they don't >> we'll be looking for a motor vehicle numbers today as well, guys there is the opening bell. once again, pretty good, in fact, yeah, very few s&p 500 names, jim in the red. you mentioned china yesterday, our friend from schwab tweets a chart, a basket of russell 1,000 names most exposed to china, underperforming for two years and is basically now back to inline in terms of relative returns. >> if you can get something that is related to china in the strength of china, you got a winner if you want to go even further and talk about vice president biden and what happens if he gets in, then you have this

coronation of american companies. i know the people don't want -- it is a very sticky thing because obviously that's where the virus started. they have got the virus under control. they have got a very strong economy. i am actually recommending for the first time jd, baidu and alibaba. the faded -- >> wow >> yes, china is on fire. >> it is alibaba, you're picking a bad day or a good day bdepending on alibaba because it is getting whacked on the ant news. >> that's why i thought it was an opportunity. >> alibaba owns 33% of ant financial and what appeared to be an ipo that might have a value of some $256 billion you can imagine and the stock has been moving up into that and of course also on the strength of the chinese consumer. >> jd is probably better when is that communist throwing that singles day thing

>> 11/11 >> they're unbelievable. is anyone more capitalist than the communists what do you think marxists thing about singles day? the people should have -- lenin, the people should have singles day. >> look at that profile. >> the people should have singles day. can you imagine? the gulag should spend everything they have >> singles day is all about love maybe if lenin was more about love, they would have lasted -- >> i don't know. it is very hard. >> back to alibaba and the ant news we have been sharing, it does -- you zero in on regulators who appear to be sharpening their focus on the microlenders, ant is number one among them, the very small loans that are made digitally to people even for, like, going out to dinner, basically. but forcing them potentially to hold a much higher reserve against those loans. currently at, like, 1% or 2% the chinese regulators in a draft of rules are talking about

as high as 30% these are just draft rules, doesn't mean they're going to go into effect. and there appears to be quite some time for them to negotiate them but they are kind of looking to reduce debt overall in the system this would have a significant impact one would imagine, jim, on ant's business in terms of at least its microlending portion of its business, if it has to hold more capital against any of these microloans. >> it is just -- it is disastrous for them. i don't necessarily want to write off alibaba, because it is a play on the consumer i do like jd more. but rocket companies, for instance, our lender that is just an incredible lender, the jay farner, dan gilbert lender, those numbers would make them blanch 1% down that's -- i like the package and get rid of them. >> mortgages these are microloans, like, going and taking your -- going out to dinner, i mean.

loan you 100 bucks >> they take the loan out to go to -- >> we have a thing called american express. >> i know we do. >> that's very much -- that's a microloan. >> that is >> by the way, jim -- >> they're charging 16% of course which is not good either. >> well, speaking of banks, jim, jpmorgan has been above the 200 day one-day since march, and today is the second time >> this is shocking. >> back to 103.20. >> i think people feel that, first of all, that maybe there is not as much risk. they like the fact that interest rates, maybe there is a little -- they have. in the end, there is a value trade that everybody keeps talking about. we got to get into value and jpmorgan is value. bp is value. i always look at it like this, there are growth stocks, there are value stocks, and there are no value stocks. and i'm putting the oils, which everybody suddenly loves, you know, i would love a thesis about why oil is doing better,

but jpmorgan is doing well and these things are trading, i mean, goldman sachs, okay, goldman sachs used to be -- remember goldman sack was the premiere place it sells at seven times earnings what are they doing, throwing the money into a chimney >> seven times earnings. >> what does it take to have a seven multiple bethlehem steel had a seven multiple once. >> maybe they want to -- >> what? >> maybe they should go private again. >> go private. that's your answer. >> i'm kidding 66 billion, have to put a premium, that's not going to happen my point is, you're trading at seven times, if you believe in your business model, put your money where your mouth is. >> should be able to buy back as much stock as you want the feds are in their face, not letting them what do they do? they sit there and they work at home, carl, just this work at home thing is just -- it is still there. more than ever >> yeah. >> you mentioned buybacks, jim

really quick on buybacks, mondelez and twitter today talking about reinstating buybacks that have been previously suspended or out of place. >> yeah. people didn't like the mondelez number it was down i was listening to sarah yesterday, mondelez is pretty good i liked it twitter, i mean, the independent committee, david, you'll have to -- very independent, right, independent, saying that drs doy is allowed to stay versus el yo elliott. >> we don't talk about the uber -- the ballot on whether uber will make money or lose money for the next ten years >> that is -- is that a referendum on the california ballot >> yeah. >> today, right? it is. >> prop 22. >> cannabis. >> not unimportant for the future of the company, no doubt. >> very well said. >> uber has done some saber rattling about the degree to

which they have to raise fares if prop 22 goes through. cannabis, jim, it is on the ballot in new jersey for adult use. and yesterday we saw both cannabis and the solar etfs doing about as well as they have done in a couple of weeks. >> arizona, montana, new jersey, south dakota, 11 states, district of columbia made it legal. that's the home depot of cannabis and then notice how i was trying out how to not say pot or marijuana canopy growth had a move last night that was extraordinary and now it is giving some back don't forget, the people who own most of canopy growth or constellation recommended, this stock is on a real tear. constellation has a very good tasting, not that i would know, cannabis drink that tastes great and is really less filling >> what else does it do? >> it gives you a buzz,

apparently that is fantastic. >> it does why haven't you tried it >> it is illegal. >> it is >> in my state it is illegal. >> well, will it still be illegal in new jersey if they pass this -- >> i don't know. put that right in front of me, i know not to take that. >> we have talked about the distress that so many states are under in terms of the budgets given the lack of revenue, increased cost of dealing with the virus and one would expect that you might see more efforts to legalize marijuana, legalize gambling, anything, to provide some sort of revenue producing opportunity for these states that are obviously quite stretched and looking to the federal government for some help that is yet to come. yet to come beyond -- >> so many states, carl, that have not legalized gambling. pennsylvania, just killing it. new jersey >> yeah. >> new jersey is badly in need of money, besides dave tepper's tax return >> him coming back was helpful. >> yeah. made it so much better

i love dave tepper. >> talk to shawn wooden later on today. >> thursday, they play and they better play mccaffrey. you speak it tepper about the team, he's like more interested -- he's more interested in the economy. i have the -- i told him i have mccaffrey in the fantasy league, what's the story he downplays that aspect he's the most serious business guy i deal with, now he probably thinks i'm a total joker he's back in jersey, david, you ought to move to jersey, tepper's back. >> that was interesting he came back robert frank reported so often on the migration of so many wealthy people out of these high tax states, back to the election, of course, that will remain unclear if rates go up federally, how many people in high tax states if there is not a resumption of the salt tax, the ability to deduct your state and local income taxes, how many people will leave. but tepper did the opposite. i always wondered when you're worth that much money, why are you moving for taxes anyway. you move away from friends and

family to save some money, even though it is about how much you're going to be leaving to your heirs and your grandkids and whatever >> tepper is a billionaire with a human face most of those are just faceless. i have to tell you, i listen to robert frank, robert frank just makes me want to go to another country. it is -- the last one was 110% he makes you feel like you're working for the government now until we usually think it is until august i now listen to him and think that under president biden, it is now -- where has he got us, working until november, before we get any money >> let's wait and see. >> sounds about right. >> it may not be good. guys, before we get to bob, i want to give the ant group a statement, they are out with a statement, of course, talking -- responding to all the things we discussed this morning in terms of what is going on in shanghai and hong kong, both said, nope, we're not going ahead now with your listing ant group says it sincerely

apologizes to investors for any convenience caused by the suspension in hong kong and shanghai of its ipo. says it will probably handle the follow-up matters in accordance with applicable regulations of the two exchanges. and keep in close communication with shanghai stock exchange and relevant regulators and wait for regulators' further notice with respect to further developments on the offering. so not much there, carl, in terms of any path forward that we're learning about from ant at this point on this very much unexpected news we got this morning. >> yeah. good day to hear from jack ma for sure guys, in terms of sectors, everything green, vix almost back to 35 to bob pisani, hey, bob. >> happy tuesday, everybody. happy election day great start to the day we have almost 90% upside. we had two 90% downside days or close to it last week, close to 90% upside day at the open we'll see how that goes. and there is one trend, a couple of trends developing in the last few days

one is still that belief in the stimulus idea, you can see this small caps continuing to outperform large cap stocks. cyclicals like transports, and industrials continuing to outperform more defensive sectors. and tech generally underperforming. this is all indicative of continuing belief in stimulus, you may think it is a mirage or not. the market apparently does not you can see the stimulus play overall, i'm not just talking about today, if you put up since october 1st, small caps have tended to outperform they're up about 5% for -- since october 1st. a small sector of alternative energy is continuing to do very well solar stocks had a great run here metals and mining, strong. value is flattish, but that's better than growth which is slightly down since the beginning of october here. so all this, again, indicative of a little bit of a stimulus play here. infrastructure stocks like floor

and mare yietta doing really we. look at sky works, terrific numbers overall. it is trading down surprisingly paypal, they beat every analyst estimate yes, the revenue guidance for the fourth quarter about in line with expectations, people consider that disappointing now. paypal trading down. they are way, way down, paypal was 210, 212 in the middle of earnings season. we're down 20% since there so if you look at the tech trends and what is going on right now, fundamentals have been very strong, the numbers have been great, we had big earnings beat, put up the full screen here, and it has been sell the news on earnings. that's story since the beginning of tech season october 12th, beginning of earnings season if you look at the big names, they all did well, only google is trading above where it was since it started here. everything else, apple, amazon, facebook, microsoft, netflix, down the list there, shopify,

you can look at spotify, these companies that all beat, heaven help you, there is sap, that's down 28%, my point is, beat, you still sell on the news don't beat, you're in trouble like sap here. and tech has been lagging overall, i'm not picking on any of the megacap names look at the s&p 500 down 6% since earnings season started, but tech is down 10%, semiconductor is 8, software is down 9%. tech in general has been sell on the news that's the other major trend we have seen in the last couple of weeks. guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, we'll talk to you in a bit rates in dollar today, rick santelli good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. indeed, you know, we are right back on long maturities, basically the whole curve actually to the rates we were looking at on friday which were the highest closes going all the way back to june if you look at the three-day chart, you can see we're right

back at 87 plus, we're close to 166 in 30s, and this really is something to pay attention to. i will talk about this at 10:40 eastern today. the central bank, keeping rates low, but what is the world going to look like once we start to get better control of covid? open the chart up to june 1st, you see what i'm talking about, we're hovering at levels intraday and on a closing basis. we haven't seen since early june but the real key, the real key if this gets late from this point and starts challenging the mid-march zoom back at 120 close in 10s, things are going to get a lot more excited in the marketplace, and the equities and many of the global equities will pay much more attention to what is going on with rates in the u.s. look at the bund differential. this starts on september 1st, the difference between our ten-year yields in bunds at 150 basis points is the widest it has been in seven months and it really merits paying close attention to finally, carl talked about the dollar yesterday, we had the fourth

higher close in the dollar index. today looks to break that pattern, you see on the one week chart. but indeed, we do know the dollar index is multifaceted here, many investors have moved into emerging markets which have gotten a bit more risky, the future of the dollar from these levels will have a lot to do with the merging market pricing. carl, jim, david, back to you. >> one of the bigger calls now, rick thanks, rick santelli. the dow is leading this morning, up 1.5%. s&p 500 3338 more "squawk on the street" in a moment don't go anywhere. (♪ )

keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed

you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo we're watching all the battlegrounds today. wisconsin is a big one let's get to milwaukee where we find phil lebeau this morning. hey, phil. >> reporter: we're in the central facility for milwaukee, and what you see behind me are

some of the people who are starting to process about 162,000 ballots. now, these are ballots for people who voted earlier, who did absentee ballots, who are starting to work through the ballots now and later today, tonight and into the early morning hours. they'll do the ballots for the people who people in line and at polling places today. one of the driving issues in the campaign in the wisconsin area comes town to the economy and jobs, manufacturing jobs took a big hit when the pandemic hit the state back in april, a good example of that, is microbrush international. it had to lay off about 80% of its workers back in april, it say dental implement company as that market was basically put on hold because of the pandemic, they had to lay off workers, made covid-19 test swabs and eventually brought back almost all of their workers and ceo of

young industries, the parent company, this san example of the pivoting his company and others had to do this year. >> we invested all of our own money to recalibrate the facility to address this, so people felt really good about it >> they are still making the covid-19 test swabs. during prime time we'll have not only more reports from here in wisconsin but across the country as we take a look at what happens as millions of americans are voting today and they're processing the ballots here in milwaukee. guys, back to you. >> phil, i think wisconsin you can register to vote in person even today and i assume the turnout we've seen around the country that trend is no different where you are today. >> i haven't been to a polling place yet. they only opened an hour ago we've been here at the central town facility. they're busy and expect to be

here between 4:00 and 6:00 a.m. central time tomorrow. >> phil lebeau in milwaukee, one of the important bathtlegrounds in wisconsin, thanks it's the best two-day gain h.r the dow since june 5th and 8t we're back in a minute the lack of control over my business made me a little intense. but now i practice a different philosophy. quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. and now i'm back on top... with koala kai. hey! more mercy. save over 30 hours a month with intuit quickbooks. the easy way to a happier business. that's why i get up in the morning! i have a secret method for remembering all my hr passwords. my boss doesn't remember approving my time off.

let's just... find that email. the old way of doing business slows everyone down. with paycom, employees enter and manage their own hr data in one easy-to-use software. visit paycom.com for a free demo.

yeah. this moving thing never gets any easier. well, xfinity makes moving super easy. i can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. wow, that is easy. almost as easy as having those guys help you move. we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay... transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome. transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today.

apple, netflix, amazon are the top performing faang names since the 2016 election. each up more than 280%, although k.d. hubert of morgan stanley heightened regulatory risks for apple. later on what to expect from faang over the next four years don't go anywhere. new projects means new project managers.

you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home.

let's get to jim and "stop trading. >> the selling is vociferous skyworks solutions had an amazing quarter, incredible numbers from a client they can't mention which is apple huge number of business in china on fire. it's not enough. it's not enough because people want their pound of flesh. i think this one in two days will be higher, not lower and people should stop selling it but they don't but it was a great quarter and does reflect very well on apple

the second indicator you put out a note about app stores doing very well, acceleration, very good read-through by skyworks, mr. 5g is what i call it mr. 5g. >> should investors count on a big change in regulatory pressure under a change in administration, at least under faang? >> i don't think so. in the end, i'm speaking tonight with box and i know you'll be here tonight and box, this is a company and he's an outspoken person what the government can and can't do, but remember, what the government does is not necessarily bad for these companies. breaking up google, i'm working with facebook to figure out how evil they really are, which i think is not i'm not worried about government regulation and by the way, fracking, we had someone earlier on the show talk about how fracking could be hurting pennsylvania only 1% of fracking is on federal land, so let's just tell

the truth. it's not going to be that different. >> jim, what have you got tonight? >> thermo fisher up 1,523% since this week in 2000, the s&p u up 31% you know jack about politics, i admit that but a winner is marc casper, winner, winner, chicken dinner, i say go thermo fisher, number one producer of pcr machines under biden or trump, pcr is everything. >> we'll see you at 6:00 and later on tonight as well >> oh, yeah. i'm not part of the sleeping bag contingent but i'll be here. >> "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time good tuesday morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and sara eisen close to session highs as we continue on monday's rally factory orders are out we get back to rick santelli >> our september read up 1% is

up slightly better than that, up 1.1%, if you strip out transportation, it's up 0.5%, which is a smidge light. if we look to durable goods orders, september finals, they will take away the mid month read, which happen to be identical, up 1.9 on headline and up 0.9 when you strip out transportation, that's a little bit better than the 0.8 mid month read and if we look at the proxy for business capital spending, which is capital goods orders non-defense ex-aircraft, up 1% exactly as expected and expectly as our mid month read and if you look at orders, switch to shipments up 0.5%, a little bit better, so all in all as expected maybe a little bit better in certain regards, but on the data for election day, pretty much as expected, as the markets continue, trend moves, higher rates, higher equities. sara, back to you. >> yes, follow some strong manufacturing numbers yesterday as well. rick, thanks you can call it the election day rally, stocks adding to

yesterday's monster gains as investors brace for a busy day ahead. joining us is nuveen's chief equity strategist bob dahl and shannon from boston private wealth bob, all sectors higher, oil is up more than 3%, the dollar is getting crushed. treasury yields are higher, paints a pretty upbeat picture on election day. what's driving the mood? >> agreed, and as you said implicitly the cyclicals are leading the way just like yesterday. the energy stocks, some of the financials, some of the industrials outperform in some of the big high growth stocks la lagging a bit, different from most of this year, telling us we'll have an economy that's okay and eventually going to get a vaccine and eventually have a president. >> so you think it's pricing out the risk of a contested

election, do you think it has to do with the fact that biden has held his lead in the polls and this whole notion of a blue wave comes big stimulus, is that what's playing out >> i think, sara, the biggest disappointment for the market would be the uncertainty of a contested election we don't know for days, god forbid weeks if we get an answer relatively soon the markets almost regardless of the outcome will breathe a sigh of relief in terms of a biden or a blue wave, i think the market's saying yeah, we'll get a bigger stimulus bill and they're liking that and that is a positive for the economy, but at some point, the market's going to say but that also means higher taxes and more regulation, shouldn't i worry? that's for further down the line >> shannon, sara raises the point about something that gets contested and is very contentious and elongated.

about a 75% chance we get a winner declared by the end of the week but short term, how do investors position for a tail risk if in fact this gets very ugly >> institutional investors have already been doing that for the last week. you've seen a significant amount of hedging on the institutional side for a protracted period of volatility and in the volatility space protracted is seven to ten days or so investors need to be looking at this in terms of what's going to happen next year and to bob's point, we're seeing significant stimulus from the fed. we saw significant fiscal stimulus already, and regardless of what happens in this election, we will see more stimulus it may look different between a blue wave or a split congress, and so i think over the course of the next week, looking for opportunities to continue to add to asset classes like equities, like perhaps high yield bonds, those more at risk on asset classes to position your portfolio for 2021 there willble

the tailwind of improving economic growth. i care more about therapeutics than the vaccine but i think we'll also see success there and investors need to look to next year and really looking past this shorter term period of volatility >> so you've got industrials and financialsleading the charge today, shannon and that means technology is underperforming. it's really either/or these days and those value cyclical stocks are having their day right now is that where you want to be because so many of those assumptions back in 2016 were really challenged. energy and financials were supposed to be the best performing sectors on deregulation they were the worst over the trump administration >> right, and sara, to be honest, you don't know what the legislative agenda is going to look like. we're seeing that in clean energy, people load up on stocks in expectation that's going to be a big part of a new stimulus bill i think the financials question is an important one. you see a steepening of the

yield curve, speaks to opportunities in the financial sector but more than anything else this isn't going to be a trade out of technology and into cyclicals. in order for this to be sustained, this true cyclical rotation we need to see money coming off of the sidelines in cash and bonds to fuel that, not necessarily just this trade out of tech. tech is a big part of the indices. if we want to see equities gained through 2021, tech has to participate to a great extent in that sort of rally >> finally, bob, this election day comes at a time where covid hospitalizations are rising in 45 states. 20 of those states they're reaching the highest levels we've seen since the pandemic began. how as an investor do you protect yourself against this rising trend, the potential for regional lockdowns or restrictions happening, maybe won't be the extent of europe but this is still very much going on >> no question about it, that was a lot of what last week's decline was about, in my view,

along with uncertainty related to the election, and i think what we'll be watching very carefully are hospitalizations and of course fatalities, and as the number of cases rise, do governors get nervous and do selective lockdowns and we'll go back to oh my goodness, i guess i can't own so many cyclicals so it's not a straight line a lot of to'ing and from'ing as we've seen since the september highs. growth stocks will lead when coronavirus is a worry, value stocks and cyclicals will lead when that backs off somewhat watch that yield curve and the ten-year treasury. we're finally moving up in yields, way overdue, in my opinion. >> how about the dollar, down 0.7%, this is a big move bob dahl and shannon shikosha, thank you for joining us david, session highs up 572 on the dow. the ten-year note yield past 88, that will make it a five-month

high >> thank you, sara of course all day on cnbc as we look at the markets right now, we'll be hearing from reporters in key battleground states it is election day, after all. let answer get to contessa brewer live in orlando, florida, and has reporting on what's going on there, orlando, contessa >> you're supposed to say it like this, orlando it's the home of universal it's the home of disney and there are enthusiastic voters and very passionate politics happening all around this state. i want to show you the doors that when they opened up at this polling site this morning, we saw scores of people lined up first thing, some waiting for nearly two hours for the polls to open. the voters told me, some of them, the early ones, they didn't trust the system to vote by mail or by early vote, but others say look, they just like the tradition of voting on election day, and every voter i talked to this morning mentioned coronavirus as the top issue

driving their decision 63% of voters in orlando voted for clinton in 2016 but you would not know that by the ads as of november 1st, almost $200 million was spent in florida on pro-biden ads, more than $100 million on pro trump alds, that buys a lot of tv commercials and they are inescapable i turned to one voter turned off by all of the ads but not enough to sit out the election. she's one of the elusive undecided voters so highly targeted by the campaigns. i asked her, who is getting her vote >> believe it or not, i think i'll know when i get in there, and my heart tells me what the right thing is to do, because i'm that distressed over both of their attitudes, both of their, the way that they've handled this election and just a lot of untruths being told on both sides. >> reporter: so here we are, election day, this is very much

a swing state in play. let's look at who has already voted, in florida, the early votes or mail-in ballots, 3.4 million from republicans, 3.5 million from democrats, and 1.9 million from voters who are neither, that's a lot, among florida's 14 million registered voters, 26% don't declare a party. so florida of course is now the president's home state, it's considered a must win for trump. one more little nugget for you here, no republican, guys, has ever won the presidency without winning florida. >> right, which is why it will be so closely watched tonight, of course, because to your point, if biden were to win it, it may very well foretell a victory for him. trump on the other hand wins it, and then you've got obviously to wait and see about other key states, contessa what are you seeing on the ground there we know florida is always close. we all can remember 20 years ago, at least many of us can, of course what are you seeing on the

ground, things going well, smoothly, poll watchers, any issues >> reporter: you have these biden campaign staff that are on this side of no solicitations. they say they're here to make sure there's no problems they're armed with masks, so that people aren't turned away from the polls if they go in they've got the granola bashes and water to make sure people who have to endure long lines are sustained there trying to make sure that everything goes fine i've talked to heads of elections and everything they say look, the fact that we're counting the ballots early means we expect this to be a very clear decision very early in the night. we don't expect a repeat of what we saw in 2000, but even in 2018, when there were three recounts in this state >> contessa brewer in florida, so much attention being placed there and rightly so contessa, thanks so much in the meantime, dow is up more than 2% here. best day since july 14th, the best two days since june 5th and

8th. a reminder, don't miss cnbc's full coverage of your money, your vote at 7:00 p.m. tonight eastern and goes all night long. we'll take a break and be back in a moment.

we are continuing to follow the election impact on the market this hour our next guest says he believes a trump re-election would not only crash the stock market but devastate the overall economy

and delay americans' recovery at every income level joining us connecticut state treasurer sean wooden. really what else do you think, sean man, that's a pretty dire forecast there what backs it up >> i think clearly what backs it up, we've had economists from goldman sachs ebs and others in the marketplace support this notion, the markets see a greater stimulus and fiscal stimulus is what's been propping up the market this year and taken a beating because of the lack of progress in washington expect to see a broader market participation in the economic recovery based on a biden victory particularly if the democrat, the senate goes democratic as well right now, the tech stocks have

really dominated the s&p representing five representing 26%, and that's where a lot of the gains have come and the growth stocks generally. >> yes i thought you were going to go just more towards aid to states in need and/or municipalities. connecticut it's funny you've been on with us a number of times connecticut has not done that badly during this period, shawn. there are some deficits. revenues are down in some ways and also an influx of people from new york city, ybenefited o a certain extent does connecticut need more federal assistance >> two points, yes to follow up from the last comment you made, the greater stimulus package you will see support in it for state and local governments which will have a direct impact on the real economy, which is different from

the financial markets. in terms of connecticut, absolutely we've managed strongly with this crisis that said for a state ended the year with a slight surplus, managed covid-19 well we are hurting. thousands of our residents are out of jobs. in the u.s. there are 12 million plus people out of work so even a state like connecticut we need a stimulus package to help with the response to covid-19 to help with state and local governments, to help with small businesses that are suffering and some that will never, ever come back and that's what we see in terms of the difference between a trump re-elect and a biden victory today. >> shawn, i wonder if you have any theories as to why there seems to be a bit of a tailwind

behind financials really, but i guess to a larger degree some energy and financials when the prospects of a biden white house is tighter regulation on both of those interests. why would they be in favor of a biden white house? >> so a couple of things one is that conventional wisdom is simply not true, that markets have performed better over the last 20 or 30 years under democratic administrations than republicans, and analysts and folks looking at this know this. two, the net impact, we expect greater regulation but we also expect greater fiscal stimulus, we also expect greater investment in green jobs, green technology, other industries of the future that will be, you take it all together and i think the expectation is a net positive on the financial

markets but even more importantly the net positive on the real economy which will support long-term financial market growth. >> stocks are just zooming here, up 646 points session high shawn, just want to go back and correct one thing you said, you thought the market wouldn't do well or the economy wouldn't do well if president trump was reelected. president trump promised a very big stimulus package after the election, if he gets reelected so why do you think that this would only happen if the democrats win? >> sara, i don't think we have enough time this morning to talk about all of president trump's promises and what's really happened in our country over the last three and a half-plus years. so we cannot go on his promises. what we can go on is what's actually been done, and one indicator, let's look at this morning and what the market is doing. let's look at a month ago, where

the volatility index was and come down as the market in pricing in a little more certainty. i would tell all of your viewers out there, don't take the polls to the bank. get out there, vote, let your voices be heard, but i believe we're now starting to see movement with so many of the polls particularly in the swing states supporting a higher probability of a biden victory and we're seeing that in how the market is performing this morning and over the last few days >> we shall see. shawn, as always, appreciate it, thank you. >> thank you appreciate you guys. after the break, the shanghai stock exchange suspending ant group's listing just days before its record-breaking ipo. huge story, we've got the details next don't go away. dow is up 667 points a gain of 2.5%

welcome back some shocking news really this morning, coming out of china, involving what was supposed to

be the largest initial public offering of all-time, that of ant financial, set to list on both the hong kong exchange and shanghai's star exchange shares sold around the world and in fact that process well under way, trading already taking place in the gray market, and then this news this morning, shanghai the stock market suspending ant's ipo this morning, and then subsequently ant telling the hong kong exchange to suspend as well. shanghai began this process, followed by hong kong, asked subsequently by ant, we're not going to list anymore until we resolve what is going on here. the question is what is going on here what we can tell you area few different things jack ma is the control shareholder here, remember the founder of allibaba and once a

part of alibaba, owns 33% of ant and the stock is moving up and potential value of ant is moving up, a significant reversal under way in alibaba's shares this morning. a couple of days ago ma said the following on the financial and regulatory systems in china. "today's financial system is the legacy of the industrial age we must set up a new one for the next sxwrenratigeneration and yg people we must reform the current system." what do you know not long after that, mr. ma is asked to come and have a meeting and the shanghai stock exchange statement "recently your company's actual controller chairman and general manager have been jointly summoned and interviewed by the relevant regulatory companies and your company reported significant issues in the changes in financial technology, regulatory environment. these issues may result in your company not meeting the

conditions for listing or meeting the information for disclosure requirements. not sure what that means and ant's response in a statement doesn't give a great deal of clarity either they say they sincerely apologize to their potential shareholders for any inconvenience caused by this developme development. they'll keep in close communication with the shanghai stock exchange and relevant regulators and wait for further notice with respect to further developments of our offering in the listing process and they'll let us know in a timely manner one key part of this as well is a draft regulation out of the regulators in china, that would set a new requirement for small online lenders microlenders ant is the largest of them in china, it has the ali pay system but allows people to digitally borrow money, micro amounts. they've been having a reserve requirement of about 1%. these drafts 30% of any loan they fund jointly with banks

doesn't mean it will take effect but it would change the business model only the micro lending front for ant, and conceivably change its profitability, sara, weighing heavily on anyone who is thinking about this and trying to figure out when this will come back to the exchange, if it will come back and what the company will look like if the micro lending standards are plied. we're still lacking in some clarity here but we told you what we can at this point. >> well, it's such a big deal also, because this was the world's biggest ipo set to top aramco, oversubscribed and huge test for the shanghai stock exchange supposed to be welcoming with open arms and not facing the same kind of regulatory issues that they might have faced in the u.s., especially with tensions high between the u.s. and china >> all true. all true yes, that's why we've been focused on it.

even though it is not listing here, not as though u.s.-based investors were not focused on this this is a big name here and as i pointed out earlier, sara, there's been a lot of trading going on in the so-called gray market, all has to be unwound, capital put out. this is a complicated and global story. we were waiting for the largest ipo of all-time to begin trading on thursday. not going to happen. >> yes and the ripple effects can be seen, baba down more than 7% etf spotlight for today, looking at the consumer staples xlp ticker, it's higher extending this year's gains, every sector is higher this morning. mandolese, stay-at-home consumers stocking up on snacks trade, the stock up 1.7% and plans to reinstate its share buyback program this quarter and reporting healthier results across the board people are snacking more

we're going to take a quick commercial break don't go anywhere. the dow is up 653. the s&p is up 2.2, with every sector higher. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update at this hour. in vienna, investigators believe there was only one attacker, a 20-year-old man with dual austrian and north macedonian citizenship who was responsible for yesterday's shootings around a synagogue in the city. four people died, 22 injured in the last few minutes, joe biden visited his childhood home in scranton, pennsylvania.

he will go on to philadelphia later today before returning to wilmingt wilmington, delaware, for the returns and expected address to the nation tonight also in the last half hour, me listenia trump went to a florida polling place to cast her ballot president trump voted just over a week ago in florida. and in dixville notch, new hampshire, just after midnight, a longstanding tradition continued as all five voters in the small town cast their first in the nation ballots, all five voted for biden. you are up to date that's the news update, carl i'll send it back to you >> all right, sue, thanks very much we are about an hour into trading, get a check on the markets where we stand session high was about 675 on the dow, a tad below that. the best day for the dow and s&p since june if it finishes as strong as it is right now, go back to 8th to

see breadth this positive. jim stewart joins us to talk about markets and the way they behave pivoting around elections. happy election day >> finally here. seems like it's been a long time coming >> yes i wonder whether or not you think what we're seeing today is a real legitimate vote that the outcome either way is going to be more decisive than we've feared >> i suspect that's the case i think one of the interesting things about this election from a stock market perspective is that it's six and one-half dozen of another whoever wins. the biden positions have some very bull iish elements to them big stimulus four years trump pays more attention to stock markets than any other president in american history so i think the real issue has been are we going to be in some kind of turmoil, not just a close election, like bush

v. gore, but one where we have, you know, turmoil in the streets, armed gangs going around, retailers putting up boards over their windows. people have been worrying about really dire results here that could have a really at least short term disruptive effect on the economy. i think that's some of the worries that have started to fade as election day has dawned and at least knock on wood so far it sounds like it's been very orderly and peaceful >> sounds like longer term, you think the result of the election is really not as key to the market as a development of a vaccine. or real signs of progress that we're going to start to inoculate large portions of the population in the coming months. >> i do believe that first of all looking at the arc of history presidents don't have nearly as much control over the economy and by extension the stock

market as we often like to think they do. it's comforting to think one person who could have effect but the economy is so big and complex there are many other factors. i was thinking in the last week or two, when we had the sharp sell-off over the rising rate of the virus in this country and globally, you look longer term and longer term is progress looks good on the vaccine. we didn't get it before election day as president and others were hoping for but the fizer announce pfizer announcement, encouraging that the trials are moving along we might start seeing results by the end of the year, there may start to be distribution by spring and into the summer and really from a stock market perspective, that's all pretty fast and i think that is going to have a huge effect on the

economy and pi extension the stock market >> the other big factor, jim, investors are watching is stimulus, how much of it, when it happens, whether it happens how do you think about that calculation based on who might win, the presidency and the senate >> there was no question, if there is a democratic win in the white house and the senate, we're going to see something like the pelosi backed $2 trillion point something stimulus package with a lot of aid to hard-hit states like new york and others that have been running up deficits that the republicans have been blocking this is unquestionably a plus for the stock market

even if president trump wins and there is a democratic senate, there is still going to be stimulus it will be smaller nobody disagrees on either side that we need some more stimulus here and that, too, would be getter for the market than nothing. a stimulus package coming out of the biden win is more bullish but the outlook is positive on either side. >> the past week or two have been abhorrent in the relationship between equities and yields a lot of supply coming online, there's explanations as to why we're in an outside pattern but i wonder if the old 60/40 model if the way you're balancing right now has changed. >> no. i've been sticking pretty closely to my, close to 70/30 balance and everybody should pick an allocation that suits their particular needs, but i

don't change that particular allocation based on any short term developments. maybe when i get older i might tweak it a little bit, but that has nothing to do with external events, just my own clock ticking. >> yes, well that's something that we all have in common, jim. we appreciate your guidance as always talk to you later, jim stewart of the "new york times." carl, president trump won north carolina back in 2016, and he will almost certainly need to repeat that performance this year in order to secure a second term our scott cohn is there, kerry, north carolina, with more. scott? >> reporter: hi, sara. about four hours into the voting now in north carolina and to hear state elections officials tell it, it has gone very

smoothly, some 2,000 polling places statewide, about four opened up late, the state board of elections will decide later today whether to allow those polling places to stay open a little while longer, and that could slightly delay the results that we get out of north carolina tonight, which they'll report after all the polls close which currently is scheduled for 7:30 eastern time tonight. we are in kerry, which is in wake county, north carolina, also home of raleigh and the research triangle region, this is a county that went 57% to 37% for hillary clinton in 2016. you can see that the polling station here is relatively quiet. there are some voters here, and it's a little deceiving with social distancing but it is relatively quiet and that may be because most of the voters in this county and indeed statewide have already voted, according to the state board of elections 7.3 million registered voters statewide, roughly 4.6 million had already voted ahead of election day, that includes 3.6

million early voters and nearly a million voting by mail sheila became baumgarner of charlotte cast her vote for biden. >> over the past four years there's no sense of integrity, of standing up to president trump, who i think has always told you who he was, and that wasn't a very nice person. >> reporter: there may very well and of course we don't know this but there may very well be more like sheila out there, as you can see how the ballots break down, according to the board of elections. 37% of those early votes came from democrats, 30% from independents, with 32% for republicans, which means the task for president trump is to turn out his votes today, and take a look at the scene earlier this morning at a heavily republican precinct in johnston county, the polling station opened in clayton at 6:30, there was a bit of a line that moved

fairly fast and some trump voters did vote early, among them restaurant manager dave urbanek. >> i think the economy in the same breath as the coronavirus is important to me and i would throw a vote to whoever is going to get that economy humming again. >> reporter: so put it all together, it is a razor thin margin here in north carolina, our final cnbc change research states of play poll showing joe biden with a slight lead, but within the poll's margin of error, and the way the things are going to work out here, when they report the results, again, around 7:30, depending on when the other polling places close, they will report the early votes, and the mail-in votes received by 5:00 today first, so those results may very well favor joe biden, but then look for those margins to close up, as the day goes on, as you get the election day turnout that

president trump and the republicans are counting on today. guys >> yep, that senate race is going to be closely watched as well scott cohn, thank you very much. looks like a nice day in kerry, north carolina don't miss special election programming tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern and goes all night long, as we bring you the results. we'll take a quick commercial break here on "squawk on the street." we'll be back in two minutes we're off the session highs, having a strong rally. dow is up 588,nd a s&p holding on to a 2% gain.

it's election day and what each outcome to be reached, on tradingnation.cnbc.com more "squawk on the street" coming up.

centennial has a lot to work with let's get to "the centennial exchange." rick >> thank you, carl

we learned past thursday that the fed's balance sheet approach around 7.2 trillion. i'd like to call this piece 7 trillion b.c., before cure and of course we know the fed is dealing with lots of issues keeping rates low, setting the pick for the debt we're generating and not worries about deficits the covid effects have to be dealt with, isn't only domestic, it is deployable the issue is of late you have seen the interest rates have been moving higher here and not so much abroad the difference between our rates and bund rates is the widest in seven months, that is telling us something. it tells me right now the fed has all its tools to try to control how rates move as we continue to generate larger and larger debt. are we going to have another stimulus stimulus is the big issue regarding the markets. they've accumulated, what, 3.8 trillion of treasuries, a little over 2 trillion of mortgage-backed securities but

the issue really is in my opinion what happens a.d., after distribution of the meds, whether it's vaccines or therapeutics that is going to put the brakes on the fed in my opinion, period, because you're going to have shocks to a system whose supply is already fractured, huge demand in a fast way. even with some of the light lockdown number twos coming around, whether it's here or abroad, we see the population isn't taking it as intense as they did round two in my area the traffic is bigger than it was in march and april during the early shutdowns the moral of the story is that the fed is going to be forced to let the markets do what they do. it's going to be very hard for them to continue to purchase and control rates in a post cure type environment it's important to pay attention, right now to what rates are doing. i know it's an election. i have to weigh in i have my own feelings

i think the current administration may win but i think the real point is, where is the big market moves after the last election we moved 55% in equities since november 8th my opinion is the big move will be post-election, what we're looking at now is pretty hard to handicap sara, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you, rick santelli. look at the top stocks on the nasdaq 100, tesla is leading the way but you're seeing strength in all of the big cap tech names like microsoft, apple, amazon, facebook, nvidia, lam research it's unusual what's happening, all the big tech names are rallying along with financials and industrials. we usually see them on opposite sides ately, the three best performing sectors in the market more "squawk on the street" when we come right back at calvert, we know responsible investing is hard. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes?

if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... boss: doug? sorry about that. umm...what...its...um...

boss: you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. don't get mad. yeah. this moving thing never gets any easier. well, xfinity makes moving super easy. i can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. wow, that is easy. almost as easy as having those guys help you move. we are those guys. that's you? the truck adds 10 pounds. in the arms. -okay... transfer your service online in a few easy steps. now that's simple, easy, awesome.

transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. visit xfinity.com/moving today. welcome back to "squawk on the street." today's rally is building on yesterday's gains, all 11 s&p 500 sectors are up today financials leading the way with a 3% gain. big banks are also helping lead

the dow 30 high we are goldman sachs and j.p. morgan chase among the dow's leaders. j.p. morgan hitting a 4 1/2 month high today the large credit card companies are also on the rise visa is lagging mastercard and american express back to you, sara. >> all right 29 out of 30 dow stocks higher at the moment. amgen is the only exception. thank you. our next guest developed corporate strategy insight from over 40 hours of interviews with executives they represent 31 companies with $1.9 trillion in market cap and $902 billion in revenue. steve mcman, co-founder of purple strategies joins us now so you're advising a lot of powerful companies, steve. what are you telling them on this election day about what outcome you expect >> well, we're telling them is know that the data that is coming in, the polling coming in around the country, national polls, state polls, there are so many more of them this year than

there were four years ago. they're telling a remarkable consistent story and that is joe biden has the lead he's had the lead for quite some time even the states tightening up, it looks like joe biden is on cruising to probably what i would expect to be a victory tonight. but i thought four years ago that hillary clinton was going to win so you have to take all of this with a grain of salt but there is a lot more data out there this time than there was four years ago >> and what is their number one concern or question to you as it relates to strategy in a change in administration and potentially change in congress makeup as well >> well, one of the things that companies today are having to deal with more than ever is kind of societal expectancies you could run your business however you wanted to run your business and people would, you know, make judgements about whether they want to buy your products. now society expecting things from companies and as a result, politicians are

demanding things from companies because after all, society is the voters that put politicians there. so i think from our perspective, the company that's we're dealing with, you know, obviously, there are economic issues, the tax rates and some of those kinds of things that are obvious. but less obvious and beneath the sur sf surface is what do folks in society expect from us what do our employees expect from us? and how do we understand the constituencies that we need to deal wefr day that are important to our business success. we help them understand those. our background for the most part is political and one of the things we do in politics is understand constituencies and what is important to them, where they start a conversation, what they think is credible and believable and what they need to hear we do that for companies every single day >> you know, steve, i think it's fascinating. we have gone through a period this year where companies took a broader stance on things like racial justice and inequality

and maybe some climate issues. i wonder if you think that horse is out of the barn or do we eventually get back to a point where companies try to be a little more apolitical and maintain both of their so-called camps in this highly polarized country? >> that's a great question one things that polarization has brought is paralysis in congress and in washington and to some degree even in state legislatures and so people are now looking to ceos as political leaders, as the equivalent of like a governor and so you're seeing now ceos taking position onz thing thez would have avoided before. whether it is black lives matter, climate change, you saw walmart, you know, which is in every rural community in the country took guns and ammunition off the shelf this week. so companies are now being asked or forced or pressured to do things that they wouldn't have had to think about four years ago or eight years ago and i think as you look forward, you're going to see more and more of that not less.

society has expectations the younger generation is not going to wait for politicians to deal with climate change as an example. they're going to expect companies to take stands that's why you're seeing big energy companies saying they're going to be netzero by 2050. >> dave mcman, thank you for joining us from purple strategies giving us a taste of what companies are coming to you for. carl, this broad based rally we're seeing best day for the s&p 500 and the dow since june we made up about half of our declines that we saw last week remember, last week was the worst week for stocks since march. but the rally is broad and powerful we're up more than 2% across the board. as i mentioned something interesting about it, carl, is that financials, industrials, and technology are the top three performing sectors it was sort of in the mode where it was value and cyclicals over big cap tech or vice versa. but today it's everything up

together it's treasury yields rising to multimonth highs the dollar is weakening and oil and copper rising which all paints a very strong picture economically. >> yeah. yeah no question. ten year -- sar yasha sara, 89 s points, it does feel a little hot. the spread between u.s. ten year yields and german now the highest since march at over 150 basis points so as sara said, dow up is 611 back to 3380 bakndsqwk are a "ua alley" starts in a moment.

good morning, tit's 11:00 a.m. in our nation's capital and 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live ♪ express yourself ♪ express yourself