with marriott. i like it. let me give you the technical buy. it's been bumping its head against this declining 200-day the. the trigger is 92.50 breaks that 200-day, snaps that year-long downtrend. you're going to be want to be in this stock. >> okay. >> i would take five points of risk for much more upside. >> got to run. jim, qualcomm, we'll see everybody tomorrow "the exchange" "is now >> thank you, scott, and hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." historic day for the country as americans vote in an election unlike any others. voters head to the polls, at least ones who haven't already turned in their ballot and with businesses facing a very uncertain future with the pandemic and record voter turnout, record political angst and record campaign cash has been raised are, and for all the concerns about a contested or delayed outcome today. stocks are up strongly for it

the second session dow up 1,000 points since monday right now up 533 that's a 2% gain and we're seeing it pretty much across the bore for more let's get right to bob pisani this hour. >> this is sort of a buy everything market, but i'm wondering if we're not running up and bite rumors and selling the news, no matter who wins the election at this point everything is up let me show you the sectors. when i say everything, i watch small caps versus big caps and they are both basically up today quite well there's been some outperformance recently, but there you see the s&p 500. just off of his highs for the day. we were up 10 or 15 points more on the s&p 500 the major indices, with the s&p 500 and small caps doing about the same and then value stocks and growth stocks, also doing about the same, and that's another indication of a broad market rally when you see all four of these sectors all up roughly the same amount, that's a broad rally how about sectors. again, buy everything, but we're seeing a little bit of

outperformance from cyclicals like bank and industrials doing a little bit better. technology holding up much better today than yesterday and a broad group of cyclicals doing well and consumer staples and health care lagging a little bit but not a lot. pretty broad rally mega cap tech, much better than yesterday. this is complete lit opposite essentially. amazon is having one of the best days in a month. remember, amazon, put up amazon, some of the stocks, amazon was 3500 just about three weeks ago so amazon is having a really good day apple was 10, 125 a while ago. facebook, microsoft and google also on the upside as for the cyclicals, i just want to point out that we've got a real rally going these weeks, the industrial stocks and material stocks doing really well so te tw tron and honeywell, all deep cyclical names. look at the rally in two days essentially that we've been seeing a move to the upside and we're also giving you an idea that the stimulus program

is very alive even though we don't have any stimulus. look at many so. reits, avalon bay, essex, this is just the two-day move to the upside, so there's a little bit of hopes that the election is going to be over, guys, and a little bit of hopes certainly for some stimulus somewhere out there on the horizon even though there's no deal or even any discussions going on, at least right now. back to you guys >> all right bob. thank you very much. bob pisani well, the big question is has the market made up its mind already about the outcome of this election, and what if investors are caught flat-footed again? let's bring in liz young, director of bmy melon investment manager and the chairman of strategies research part ofgers joins us as well the certainty that we have here as you look at rising bond yields and financials outperforming and the rally the past two days, are market signalling that it thinks that a biden win is what we're walking into here?

>> i think there's a couple things going on here, and just to reiterate everything that bob just said, everything is up, and this is a case of a rising tide is lifting all the ships, and i think the market is trying to do an intense exercise of pros and cons on one side, on the pro side, regardless of what happens tonight, regardless of what happens in the election, we've got two big pros going on no matter what the first big one is that it's over and we'll have an answer at some point so that crisis of uncertainty just ends, and then the second one is we're going to get a vaccine no matter who is president at some point and hope flip in the near future so there are positive aspects of this that i think that we can hang our hat on going forward. in the near term here what i'm a little concerned about that i do think the market is pricing in the certainty of a decisive uncontested result, and i don't know that that is the priority that voters are going to look at, and i don't know that that's actually what's happening in the next 24 to 48 hours. >> jason, does the fact that

there's this kind of consensus make you think it's possible we could get a big surprise again >> well, i think, listen, i think unexpected things when it comes to human beings happen all the time, and i think, you know, one of the things i learned a lot from 2016, not that i need a lot of reminding every day, this is a very humbling business, and when it comes to social sciences like economics or financial markets, you know, it's not like chemistry or physics where you get the same outcome every time, and so, you know, i would add to liz's list of the things that are certain. i think it's certain that the fed is going to continue to be extraordinarily easy for a long time to come can, and we have a fed meeting this week, and i also think that's certain that we're going to get fiscal stimulus the nature of the fiscal stimulus may look a little different depending on what happens this evening but we feel quite strongly that it's in it

the have to have category. it's not in the nice to have category if a large portion of the economy is still shut down because you really have to help people, small businesses that were being affected by this, so in addition to liz's list of certainties i would add other certainties that make it likely that stocks are just going to be thrilled that this is over. >> yeah, jim kraim they are morning is talking about listen, no matter if you get a selloff tonight because people are concerned or jittery about the outcome he says to buy it would your advice be as blanket as that, and does it matter that we're obviously seeing different parts of the market do well based on, you know, who investors think is in the lead here in is the best move just to take a step back and like jim saying maybe buy the broad market and not overly worry about it >> one of the things that i tell clients a lot is that if you have a correction or even something bordering or a bear

market without a new recession it's a buying opportunity, but it's a buying opportunity for what long-term investors, so that's your stance and you have a long-term view then you could add to that on a dip tonight but remember what happened in 2016 the market overnight was completely different than what happened the next day, so if there's a rally overnight, that could mean that we have a dip tomorrow it could go in complete opposite directions, and there's never really any fruit that comes out of trying to chase that direction. one of the things that i think is important to think about, early on we were so worried about there being a blue wave and broad sweeping tax package and i don't disagree that that would happen, that there would be a proposal of tax increases, but tax increases don't happen in isolation and to jason owes point we need stimulus both parties want stimulus even if the market fears a blue wave from a tax perspective a blue wave would mean a whopper of a fiscal package and it would probably mean it's coming soon, at least soon in the first term,

january, at worst that means february, and in the short term that's going to drive a rally that's going to drive positivity and the sequence of events matter so if you get a fiscal package and a vaccine around at same two or three-month period that's huge upside in the stock market >> all right jason, finally, give us any other surprises that you would be kind of attuned for tonight, whether it's, you know, what could happen with the senate or with the house or just other things that, you know, that people should be thinking about in terms of the wide range of outcomes here. >> well, you know, kelly, one place i would be a little careful, i think people are -- and i agree with liz i think -- i learned the hard way. it's very hard to bet on the market based on political outcomes the one place where i do think a blue wave is probably maybe too priced in would be the relatively small industry groups, maybe some of the green energy stocks. i think they sold off a little bit. there's still an enormous amount in it. if there were to be a surprise

and donald trump were to prove victorious that could prove to be a problem for some of those stocks i also think some of the faang stocks, too, is if -- if, again, the president were to win, there is some political risk there that i'm not sure is being completely reflected in -- in the stock prices, so those are two things i would just, you know, pay attention to those are perhaps more short term in orientation than long term, but it does seem like a lot of people are kind of inching towards that side. >> yeah, no. it's always interesting to watch because when it looks like it all makes sense, that's when we all get surprises. thank you both for talking us through it this hour really appreciate it. for all the talk of a possible blue wave tonight, well, it's still worth looking at how blue the wave might be. what do we mean? the candidate who might slip seats to democrats are playing

up their moderate side. >> reporter: the democrats are mapping back a path back in the senate relying on moderate candidates in a growing number of competitive states. take a look at iowa. that used to be a long shot but now theresa greenfield is neck and neck with current gop senator joni ernst greenfield is against the green new deal and expanding the courts and is billing herself as pragmatic rather than political. meanwhile in arizona, astronaut mark kelly has been consistently ahead in the polls against incumbent republican martha mcsally. his campaign is touting his independent leadership, and we're seeing similar dynamics play out in colorado and in texas. now, this is not a new strategy. it is the same one that democrats used back in 2018 to flip control of the house, and that is forcing some realignment in the business community. the chamber of commerce has endorsed 23 democrats in house races this year, more than half of them are in districts that president trump won, but for now both progressive and moderate waves of the democratic party are united behind joe biden and

a desire to defeat president trump, but, kelly, after the election,you can see a lot mor in fighting. back to you. >> i think this is a fascinating point, ylan, that people shouldn't take for grant that had a blue wave means one thing or the other but at the same time is there a difference between the way people run to get elected and the way that they end up voting are the people who run as moderates, do they actually prove to be in terms of their track records? >> sure. political incentives are different pre and post-election, that's certainly true, but you had this conversation, a great one with your guests earlier about stimulus and what could happen after the eelectric i'll just point out that it's been the house moderates, the democratic moderates and the house who are arguing for stand-alone packages and stand-alone votes on things like unemployment insurance, on things like ppp so you could see more pressure from moderate democrats who get elected in this cycle to take those smaller votes, and perhaps some discomfort with a really large price tag, so that could act as

a constraint on the size of stimulus down the road kelly? >> that's true ylan, thank you very much. ylan mui in washington for us. we're hours away from the first polls closing in the country the presidential vass tight in a lot of see states. former vice president biden holds only a narrow lead over president trump in half a dozen battleground states including arizona, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, north carolina and florida, and in those states a few counties in particular could make all the difference. joining wree now is chris krueger, managing director and strategist with cowins research group and david wasserman is house senator of the cook political report and an msnbc contributor. welcome to you both. chris, i'll start with you what counties are you focused on >> well, you know, it's 40 counties in about ten states, but what we tried to look at was what counties are closing early and counting early so we're looking at the atlanta suburbs

we're looking at a number of the counties in north carolina, whether it's new hanover or wake, and then really florida, florida, florida, whether it's orange, seminole, sumpter. i think those also going to be some of the key counties to watch, and most importantly these counties will be -- a number of them have already started counting the early vote, and all of them will be closed by 8:00 p.m. eastern tonight >> and david, that brings us your big point which is about the kind of red and blue mirages we could see based on the way different states count their ballots, so what's your thinking as we start -- i don't know if we're getting any indication yet about how quickly these votes, these mail-in votes are being tabulated in some places where they are allowed to be counted before the polls close tonight, but how do you expect this to play out as the evening progresses >> we're headed for historic record-shattering turnout and election day turnout supports that theory right now, and texas

and georgia are legitimate tossups with hours to go before the polls close and i think a year ago democrats would have been pretty happy about that look, the way the map boils down right now, joe biden is likely to flip wisconsin and michigan in addition to nebraska's second congressional district which is omaha. that means to get to the 270 votes he needs to win either arizona or pennsylvania. donald trump needs to carry both of those in order to win a second term. now, when we're looking at results early on election night, i agree with chris we're going to be focused on florida where the polls close at least everywhere except the panhandle at 7:00 p.m. p.i'll be watching sumter county carefully, the villages where the median age is 69 years old and 79% of people voted in advance of election day. we're likely to see about 84,000 votes that are reported shortly after 7:00 p.m., and donald trump likely needs to win sumpter county at least 2-1 to have a chance of winning florida. he won did 68-29% in 2016.

rick scott who won by a tenth of a point for the senate in to 18 won it 71-29, so if joe biden can get more than 33% of the vote in sumpter, very few election day votes reported there, less than 12,000, that would be a very good sign for miss chances more broadly. >> so, chris, i'm also curious if you agree i think the way the "the new york post" framed it today is if we know the results tonight, it's a bad night for trump do you agree with that >> i do. i mean, look, i think there are really sort of two scenarios tonight. scenario one is that biden wins in a landslide pretty early. to dave's point, florida, georgia, also north carolina, ohio, texas. those are kind of the big five trump 2016 states that close and more importantly count early biden wins any one of those states, and it's game over for

the president. scenario two is that trump holds strong with those early in-person votes and we probably have to wait for pennsylvania to finish counting which could be all the way until friday >> all right david, give me a quick final surprise you think we might see before we go >> i think democrats could win texas. joe biden not necessarily in a senate race, but we have to be caution about a red mirage in the north where donald trump, we expect, will have a large lead in the election day tallies that is are generally reported are first in pennsylvania and michigan and it could take a while for joe biden to catch up with the mail and absentee vote and could have a blue mirage in the sunbelt where the first initial large metro counties are reporting huge batches of ballots in places like houston and miami and broward and in the atlanta area and north carolina could heavily favor biden and we simply have to be patient and

cautious >> maybe or the last four years the biggest surprise would be no surprises, i don't know at this point. chris krueger and david wasserman, thanks for your thoughts ahead of this very, very big evening appreciate it. everybody. don't forgot to watch cnbc's special coverage of the 2020 election your money, your vote. it begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern tonight and it goes all night long as we tabulate these results. coming up it's not just the presidential race that will have an impact on your money. control of congress will be crucial, especially when it comes to stimulus. we'll look at the balance of power there next plus, depending on the data that you pick the glass is either half full or half empty when it comes to the economy this election day we'll look at both sides next, and on this big rally day a look at the averages since the march lows dow up 31% and the nasdaq up 61% since march. we're back in a couple you doing okay?

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welcome back the economy is speeding up and slowing down, and theism pact is being felt differently in different parts of the country steve liesman joins me now with the closer look at the progress and the setbacks steve? >> reporter: kelly, it's truly a glass half full, glass half empty economy as americans head to the polls today there's been tremendous gains from the worst economic effects of the virus but still substantial remaining pains and, of course, daunting challenges at the worst level in april 25

million americans had left the workforce or became unemployed compared with february, but a massive chunk of those jobs and workers came back and the number now stands at 11 million that number is still though worst than at any one time during it the 2002 recession consumer spending has come back but different than what it was services remain below. the overall consumer level is depressed from february. no order from amazon apparently off limit when you're stuck inside and can't get out to a restaurant a surge in home build pentagon and home purchases, that's underpinned the economy and economic growth even while as many as 9 million people face possible eviction at the end of the year when protections expire and the outlook for further relief from washington remains uncertain. one more thing to look at, a bright spot, manufacturing, a strong manufacturing rebound the level is now back to where it was in february and what looks to me like a seagull rebound. that's the best picture i can

think of, and this would all be good news if it weren't for resurgence of the virus threatening new lockdowns and if prior relief fun weren't running out, especially for some specific families. today's placer survey shows voters negative on the current state of the economy but relatively more upbeat in the critical swing states. >> wait. i didn't -- what bird was that you saw, a seagull >> i called it a seagull. >> you don't see the seagull. >> no. >> you could call it -- yeah see it now all right. anyway, kind of a broken wing seagull but it's back is the point. >> and it's interesting like you say that, you know, it's -- people are more upbeat about the economy in some of the swing states relative to the rest of the country and that is something to ponder tonight. steve, thank you very much we appreciate it steve liesman. and as we think over how the economy will affect the vote tonight in different parts of the country, where should

investors' attention be focused as the numbers start rolling in? here with the three most important thing for investors to watch tonight is larry lindsey, former director of the president's council under former president george w. bush i know you try to beat the national media in making the call so if you works give our investors a little edge here what are the three most important things they should be focused on this evening? >> yes first, i think -- i agree with you, i loy liesman should could get a shrink and get a rorschach test on what he sees in picture. just a little humor on election day. the first thing to watch as your previous guest mentioned is the southeast and that i -- i would call that the first hurdle that trump has to jump over and then, of course, where it's going to go on well past tonight it's going to be what happens in pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. so our fearless prediction is

that this is going to be a long night. all the incoming data to me says, no, this is just not going to be a blue wave. the polls for a variety of reasons have just missed it completely so i think we're going to be in for a count that probably goes through the rest of the week and then litigation will start. >> but larry, first of all,ful polls are wrong again about, you know, some of these key outcomes this year, people keep saying that's the death of the polling industry i don't even know if i believe that i think everyone just keeps trying to do the best that they can do. >> well, they do, i suppose. i think that what we have is a little bit of a herd instinct amongst the pollsters. you know, it's -- if you're an outlier and you're wrong, you're dead if you're close to the consensus you're going to be fine even if you're wrong the key thing to look for in a

poll and some of the worst polls, the bigger name polls bury this, it is the partisan re-weighting they do of the raw results. so, for example, i hate to pick on you, but the cnbc poll has a biden skew of nine most of the rest of them, ugov has a partisan of some of the nbc is also i think -- it's -- you can see it's either 9 or so. those -- they are always possible i mean, anything is possible, but, you know, if you look at other surveys such as gallup and pew research, a much more reasonable number is 4, and so those polls are probably exaggerating five to six points on the democrat side just from that one factor, and then there

are the uncertainties that we don't know, for example, for want of a better word, deploshls a are going to turn out this time and that's really key. you know -- go-go ahead, sorry. >> larry, i'm curious. sure, just because i know we don't have a ton of time here and i do want to pick up on one point that you made and it's probably the most critical point for markets right now, and that's are we going to know? in a state lyric pennsylvania i saw "the times" say basically it could look like it's leaning strongly for trump all night and yet as they tabulate the absentee ballots and then the coming period of time it could go the other way entirely, so, you know, how -- how much do you think investors are really going to have any clear sense by the end of the evening as to the outcome? >> well, it actually goes all different ways there were plenty of reports that the city of philadelphia refused to certify republican

poll watchers. they basically drag it out and so, you know, the chances for shenanigans are higher and that works in the other direction the other factor, and this is why i'd be very cautious if i were an investor right now you've in the all the boarding up in new york i'm sure, here in washington, a group called i think it's defend democracy has already put out a map with little red splotches on it of where their protests, peaceful or not, are going to be taking place so the left is really geared up for this one, and you're going to see a widespread protest, civil unrest, and i think that's really the worst outcome for the market. >> and no matter what i guess happens over the prevailing hours of time. larry, always good to check in with you we'll just have to see what happens tonight and then in the

coming weeks and for investors it would be cautious before committing to anything one way or the other in the meantime thank you for your time, sir larry lindsey, we appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >> joining me from the lindsey group in washington. coming up, tech is on the ballot from ride-sharing to privacy laws to antitrust. a slew of industry-changing initiatives are on the ballot this year. we're going to dig into the stocks that could be the most affected and tell you what they might face, plus we'll head live to the battleground state of north carolina where the divisions are stark. where do things stand. north carolina polls are among the first to close at 7:30 tonight and watch us live on the go use the cnbc app. "the exchange" will be right back

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morning, joe biden said it's good to be home as he visited the scranton how is that he lived in until he was 10 the current owners asked him to sign their living room wall. he wrote, from this house to the white house with the grace of god, end quote police in austria searched this apartment complex west of vienna, one of 18 hoeies can as raided 14 people suspected of being connected to the gunman in yesterday's shootings have been arrested though authorities believe a 20-year-old man was the only attacker. you are up to date, kelly. i'll send it back to you see you next hour. >> all right sue. thank you very much. sue herera >> let's get a check on markets right now. the dow up 688 points at session highs today. up 523 today so about 150 off that level and pretty strong and consistent gains across all the major averages we're locking at 2%, just thereabouts for the dow and for the nasdaq, the s&p up 1%, and that tells you about some of the sectors. looking at the fang stocks, they

are among the biggest gainers, facebook, apple, amazon, they are having a pretty strong session right now. facebook is up 2.5%. the chips are also hour with the rest of the market taiwan semi and nvidia, the biggest movers there generally speak and there's nvidia up more than 3% right now. take a look at tesla right now that stock building on400% gain this year, also up nicely today by nearly 6%, and let's take a look at how stocks have done in general under the trump presidency all three major indices have done pretty well the dow up 40%, the s&p up 48% and the nasdaq has doubled, up 101% during that time. since the inauguration 10 is s&p components have also at least doubled including things like etsy, amd, nvidia, paypal and there you have it still ahead, we've got reporters across the country in key battleground states on this big election day we'll check in with small businesses and jane wells out in phoenix, arizona and get the stark divisions among voters

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the race is tightening in the battleground states which means this year in places like arizona and north carolina jane wells is live in glendale, arizona with a look at two small businesses and two different choices for president. scott cohn is in kerry, north carolina where the split between urban and suburban voters could change the election. jane, first to you. >> reporter: most votes have already been cast in arizona this is part of the phoenix metroplex, the fastest growing metro in the country the covid shutdown here was shorter and while jobs were lost, half of them have come back, but when you talk to the owners at oven and vine, the restaurants, the owners still have only 4 of their 13 employees, completely lost the lunch crowd and it's the president's handling of covid, not taxes, that's why michelle and dylan are being vocal for

voting for a democrat. >> in the past we traditionally were in the switzerland fashion which i really rather not have say because we have customers from all walks of life and all different backgrounds and different political viewpoints, but i -- i don't know what else to say there's no other choice at this point. like the choice is clear as a business owner there's no other way to look at it. >> now one of those customers is retired detective jason scarpatti renting out salon space as he's all in on trump, mostly to avoid another national, if there is a national covid shutdown, and to keep the corporate tax cut, but that said -- >> everyone thought on the republican side, you know, was it 11 years ago, when obama came into office that that was the end of the world and it wasn't we still moved on and everything worked out and we survived and i hear the same thing now with, you know, the democrats, in

trump is r elected that the world is coming. if we have biden as president i think, you know, i think we'll still move on and we'll be all right. it won't be the end of the world. >> our tracking shows how arizonans feel about how the president has handled the economy. kelly, there's also one important proposition on the ballot today which would raise the highest tax bracket locally to 8% in this state. that would move arizona from a low tax to a high-tax state, at least for the upper income, and that's been one of its attractions for a lot of retirees. >> back to you. >> see, that's fascinating because that's one of those changes that will make a huge difference in the long run even if it goes under radar i'm curious, jane, as you've been to different poll sites have you seen poll observers >> yes there are some now, we haven't seen -- arizona is an open carry state i haven't seen any poll watchers you have to be 75 feet away if you're going to be carrying a weapon and you're not allowed, if you're here to vote, to bring your weapon inside a polling

place here on election day. >> wow, jane, appreciate it. >> keeping an yeah on all things arizona today. let's go to north carolina where our latest survey shows joe biden with a very small lead over the president as we head into election night this comes down to urban versus suburban voters. is that right, scott >> yeah, basically, urban, suburban, rural. there's so many ways that you can slice and dice this electorate here in north carolina all the divisions are sharp as well as who is voting and when and how they are voting are, so i'm here in a suburb of raleigh, fast growing it is in wake county which hillary clinton ran away with four years ago take a look at the polling station. there's just about nobody here, but that may be because the majority of the registered voters in this state, 7.3 million or so, have already vote, according to the state board of elections, and you can see how it breaks up it is primarily democrats and independents, according to the

state board of elections who voted early. if the -- and those independents include people like -- like seth per advice in mt. olive who voted are early for joe biden this year. >> just the constant gas lighting, the constant lying, the constant just ridiculous stuff there that i've seen from the administration eventually i just actually started thinking about it, and i just could not in good faith vote for somebody like that anymore. >> a self-described independent and trump voter in 2016, if the independents, as the polls suggest, break towards the democrats, that means that trump has to match with election day turnout, places like this, clayton, north carolina, heavily republican johnston county, the message from the gop is getting the economy back to work that. struck a chord with restaurant manager diveurbanek.

>> i think the economy in the same breath as the coronavirus is very important to me and i would throw a vote to whoever is going to get that economy humming again. >> take a look at the switch or the apparent switch in our cnbc change research states of play poll when it comes to getting people back to work this is still within the margin of error, but voters are now saying, or the respondents to this poll saying that trump and the republicans hold the edge. the poll also says that trump and the republicans hold the edge on dealing with the coronavirus. again, that's within the poll's margin of error, a late change we'll see if it's too late with so many of the voters here in the tar heel state already casting their votes. kelly? >> all right scott, thank you very much, sir. scott cohn in north carolina today. don't forgot to watch cnbc's special coverage of the 2020 election, "your money, your vote" begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time and goes all night long. coming up, it's election

day, and stocks are rallying, but michael santoli says hold off on inferring too much about the outcome. he'll join me next to explain why. as we head to break, take a look at the dow nearly all 30 stocks in the green today with goldman and walgreens leading the way. verizon, amgen have turned lower. we're back in a couple as business moves forward, we're all changing the way things get done. like how we redefine collaboration... how we come up with new ways to serve our customers...

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welcome back stocks are rallying today, and it's the breadth that's caught people by surprise both technology and financials doing well, for instance seema mody is here to bring down some of the big etf movers for us. >> two hours left in trade and the dow is currently on track for its biggest one-day gain since july 14th, a pretty strong day for industrial stocks after that latest ism data revealed manufacturing activity accelerated in the month of october, highest level in 17 years. the election also being priced in, deutsche bank says a democratic sweep would mean a

large-scale infrastructure bill and will become a bigger priority and restarting the u.s. economy, so those infrastructure plays like caterpillar, deere and ingersoll-rand you can see up around 2% to 6% caterpill caterpillar trading at its highest level since january 2018 but there are questions circulating around stimulus, the size of a potential package and the timeline around a biden or trump administration small caps are continuing to outperform the large caps higher by 1% today and higher than 1% for the entire week. kell, back to you. >> seema, thank you. seema mody, and stocks are rallying with the dow having its best day since mid-july. the s&p on pace for its second biggest presidential day election rally since 1984. when you put the surge into context the nasdaq has made up a third of its declines from last week's big selloff. the dow and s&p 5 recovered a little more than half its losses let's not jump to conclusions or so says cnbc market commentator

mike santoli mike, it's the market jumping to conclusion, don't you think? >> the market is tacking in one direction, but the setup that you placed out there is the key which is the market in a bad week, down 6% and at s&p 500 last week. that's kind of the oversold condition that came into i see today's rally on top of yesterday's as a little bit of the market pulling itself into a more neutral footing ahead of a big known event. now, i don't think we -- it makes sense to infer a lot of fresh information that the market is conveying here about the outcome today of the election i think that mostly the statistical models, all the stuff we've known for a while, that you've been chewing over for a while. nothing has happened in recent days to disturb that but if you look at the s&p, today's high was almost exactly midway between the recent highs and the recent lows. that's a three-month range we've been in and today is how we also barely tagged a level from before a big selloff trading a bit technically and i understand there's an undertone of cyclical strength in there,

partially had the ism number, maybe stimulus hopes so all that have stuff is in the mix but i would caution folks not to sort of feel as if the market has this all figured out, not just the result but what the immediate response might be in the markets. >> you know, i -- i sort of was with you, mike, but then we talked to bob michael of jpm yesterday and i asked him, who do you think about rising bond yields over the last week including the selloff last week and he says things are pricing in a biden win, a reflationary, inflationary view coming down the market. >> i think had the bond market is telling you that there's a two-third or better probability, based on every observable peeves information, that we do perhaps get a biden win, but i'm saying that hasn't changed yesterday into today and it's much more about the stock market kind of assimilating that outlook, by the way, with everything else involved, too, whether it's covid or what's happening in china, so that's why i feel as

if it's not just a single up or down vote by the market today. >> fair enough always good to check in with you. thank you, sir, mike santoli. >> uber and lyft are trading higher as markets are anticipating california voters will pass a ballotish any of that will help their bottom line we'll talk about what that means for tech companies and the federal government right after this quick break our retirement plan with voya gives us confidence. they help us with achievable steps along the way... so we can spend a bit today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so...what do you think, peanut? nope. honey, do you think we overdid it? overdid what? see? we don't think so, son. technically, grandparents can't overdo it. it's impossible. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.

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welcome back anti-trust scrutiny will stick around big tech regardless who wins the white house dierd dierdre bosa joins me with more. >> they're taking it into their own hands. california is putting prop 22 and prop 24 to voters today. proposition 22 is the gig economy initiative that could force companies like uber, lyft

and door draft to -- and there's an initiative asking whether law enforcement needs search warrants to access data. and there's also a ballot initiative in portland, maine and that could strengthen a ban against facial recognition technology by the police and this all matters, kelly, because the outcomes could shape debate at the national level as we wait for those regulators to get their act together back to you. the states and the labs where we see these experiments to begin the ballot initiative on prop 22 is the most expensive in history. uber and lift contributed about

$100 million alex ckantrowitz, thank you for joining he you're s -- me. you're saying it's the company'sfacompany' fault that it's being ping packed back to vorts aters and w back to them doesn't is suggest it was a flawed bill? >> it's definitely a blunt instrument meant to solve a complex problem. you have to ask how do we get here i don't think this becomes an issue to the california legislature unless the drivers are not being treated extremely well i think that's what happened here i think the best form of regulation, you don't want it to end up in the hands of the government we seen that a lot with the other big tech companies i do think the fact that uber and lift, door dash haven't paid

very much for the services of the people that are working through their apps has sort of led to this moment now they're facing the cost. >> i know you think and i think for investors this is something that should resonate, you know, the shares are up big the last couple of days, but you think ride sharing face as problematic future regardless, especially because of covid is that right? >> oh, my god, yes it's such a rough moment for ride shares. people have gone from taking uber and lyfts to buying their own cars and that trip to the office might not be worth it now that you're working from holme the demand is down and the autonomous driving they were counting on is farther down than they ever expected it hard it's hard to see a promising

future at least within the next three to five years. >> what happens if they're defeated at the polls? it looks like most expected them to win what happens if they face a surprise loss? >> yeah. it would be fairly cat traffic f -- catastrophic for them. it's reported in a moment when they thought they would have to take all the contractors and make them full-time employees, they would have to shut down the app because it would be such a complex undertaking to figure that out we might be looking at shifts. you might see more than 100,000 drivers just in california get cut from the system just so they can figure out a way to retain a segment full time. it would have pretty catastrophic results that's why they're spending all this money to try and defeat it. it looks like they're going to win on this front but the polls that i saw were fairly inconclusive and so this is a fight that i expect to go on one way or the other. >> and i just wonder if they

win, if that's it for other states to pursue this approach if they'll realize this was flawed >> yeah. i mean, look, right now as you mentioned at the top, we're going through a moment where every state is reckoning with the way to rein in the power of tech i think states will learn lessons from california. it could be a smaller bill that comes in, something more nuanced. >> exactly alex, thank you, sir and that does it for "the exchange" today. we'll have a whole lot more k coverage on the lks aelection o "power lunch." i'll see you can tyler mathisen after this quick break one day we'll look back

and remember the moment that things, for one strange time in our lives, got very quiet. we worried over loved ones, over money, over our planet, and over takeout. let's remember this time when so many struggled to feel secure, and build a future where everyone can. because when the world seems like it's standing still... that's the perfect time for us to change it. aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time!

get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com welcome to power lunch, folks. it is election day i'm tyler mathisen election day is under way. the dow having its best day in a month, up about 450 points, as you se