what are we watching in the market >> i think people will be fixated on the overnight futures. i think that's wherethe concentrated efforts will be people are trying to guess what the majority of other people will do with a noble outcome >> all election coverage that you need right here. don't change the channel starting at 7:00 p.m and before then "fast money" which starts now >> i'm melissa lee this is "fast money. tonight we are trading the vote. less than two hours from the first poll closing tonight it is possible we won't know a decisive winner for days, or will we? stocks are surging with the s&p 500 posting its second best election day on record

every sector finished in the green except for energy. yields pushed higher so is the market giving an all clear when it comes to getting some election night clarity? what do you say? >> all clear, definitely not i think a lot of people are trying to gauge what basically the last week and a half ment. half of that move last week we got back over the last couple trading days i will tell you flat out i have no idea. i can make a case for both candidates based on the sector maybe the president will be re-elected but the counter is maybe the bond move helped and the crude went higher,

perhaps that is suggestive of biden winning. if you have a candidate either one with a concession speak tonight or in the wee hours of the morning when you are on melissa lee, that will take what it closed at today down to the high 20s if that's the case, i think you buy the vix once again >> do you think the markets are saying anything about the election maybe not who will win, but the fact we might have a winner sooner than we all think >> part and parcel the specifics around who will win, i think the market will be hard-pressed to be an indicator of that when i see all of these move in tandem, with the exception of

energy, you have seen moves higher in the ev space i think there is a more of a contained predetermined path i will point out that at 35 the vix is still indicating there will be some height and volatility >> this is even lower than we saw last week in the sell-off. tim, how do you read the markets and how are you bracing yourself overnight? >> democracy at work this is very exciting. i think this is my fourth fast money presidential election. the vix at 35, i think the presumption is uncertainty there is certain uncertainty i think it is impossible to divorce itself from the

political polls and then there are the betting polls. the betting polls are tighter than the political polls, but the signals are that the market likes the concept of a blue sweep. again, not my political views, but the market needs to think about that what the market should want is a biden white house and a gop senate i think those are dynamics we can get into morales -- more or less. but if you think about what could pap with capital gains taxes and corporate taxes and banks and what's to come the short run of higher fiscal stimulus, conciliatory tones with our trading partners might do something, but i think it is more offset in terms of tax selling and people concerned about higher taxes, especially

some of those people in corporations 71 or 72 basis points, yes, we spiked there briefly in march, but this is about as steep as we have been. that is signaling a democratic controlled government will be fiscal spending and that would be leading rights higher >> how do you think about a blue wave on financials which we have seen rally sharply as bonawyn, it could be on the back but if we are thinking about a blue wave and regulatory, the regulatory environment as well as congress wanting to get in on how financial products are accessed, how they are priced to the public, these are things

that are i am packmpacked by bu. >> stimulus is mainly the only thing a blue wave would focus on in the short-term i think we would see bonds move again we haven't been hearing about a two-tenths spreads, not that that is this wide, 73 basis points i think regulation would be a little down the road last night we had tom lee on he was saying in any scenario the market goes up maybe that's what was happening today. people were on the sidelines he said there was a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for clarity and today thinking all

right, we are not necessarily going to have to decide time to get in if either side makes the market goes higher you can paint a scenario if trump was going to win or biden would win and the market was reacting that way. i don't know what it means >> we are saying we don't know what the market is saying as far as trying to reacted to and project winners. guy, let's say you decided to join me at 1:00 a.m. or 3 or 3:45 a.m., would you be able to tell me how the markets would

react? >> there is some implicit indication for me to approve in the middle of the night with you, which i am willing to do, not with standing the pajamas. remember when we had the results at 3:30 in the morning i said you will see a relief rally and it will level off in the next few weeks i was 100% wrong and i knew the results. i think it will take a lot of the volatility out of the market that suggests that the market is going higher i don't think that's necessarily the case i think this is one of the situations where you could see the market trade sideways for a while. >> voting is underway across the country. we have already seen a record

number of ballots passed let's go to washington >> the latest tally puts the number of early and absentee votes at 100 million that is double last yethe last election how each state processes these votes will be different. arizona, georgia, minnesota and nevada all start counting ballots when they are received other swing states like florida and north carolina, they start processing them on a set day before election. and two states, paf aennsylvanin wisconsin. and in fact, seven pennsylvania counties say they are not going to start counting until tomorrow ohio says they are on track to

surpass 6 million votes for the first time but he said he expected the lines to be shorter because it was so front loaded. he said even the weather was cooperating. i think it was 60s in the twin city >> we were talking about the markets believing, by the bond move, that there will be a winner declared sooner than later, you are saying because of the delayed vote counting, we might not know >> that's right. we may not know who the winner is tonight, both in terms of the presidential race and the balance of power in the senate which is critical. not only is there the ballot counting that needs to take place, but there are also lawsuits around how some of these ballots are processed. we heard from the michigan

secretary of state today who has set friday as a timeline of getting some of those results. she said they have made progress on counting those results, so we may know something sooner, but she is hedging her bets and saying it may be a couple of days >> tim, you mention the certainty of uncertainty is this priced in, do you think? >> i don't know how anyone could be expecting a result from pennsylvania i will leave it to our colleagues this is the super bowl for people prognostication. markets are ahead of us most of the time it is not good news, but i think the expectation of not knowing

on election morning of a day after. have we had that i don't think that's been the expectation going into the elections before i think the market recognizes the importance of the covid factor, the importance of fiscal, when that will come and who is in power, whether that may come sooner. the fed report is out and i think we will get some answers thursday, although not a lot these are issues and dynamics we have never dealt with on the night of an election or election-eve we are dealing with more uncertainty than 8 years ago or 12 years ago >> julian, great to have you with us. you are saying that the best-case scenario in your view is much longer than just a few

days you are talking weeks and maybe months here. >> melissa, i think we have a volume problem on your end >> can you hear me now >> yeah. i got you. >> as i was saying, your best-case scenario is beyond a couple of days, more like weeks or maybe a month >> got no volume >> we will try and iron that out. we will get to you when we get to you but this best case sheeve scenas thanksgiving or december >> i think we would start to see some unrest in that scenario in which case you could see having

curfews and some kind of dampeningeffect on the economy also, people are exhausted they just want this to be over already. that to me is a bad case scenario i don't think we will end up there, but if i knew that for sure, then i would be buying >> bonawyn >> the more protracted and disputed this is, that's the downside that the market isn't accounting for i think you will see vix around the 45 or 50 level if we don't work it out until the holidays i do think the market is getting more comfortable with either scenario first and foremost is the economy, how we attack that and i think the other things are secondary and tertiary

>> i think julian is good to go now. he is on the phone now i was asked about your best-case scenario being thanksgiving or even into the new year which we have a ripple he effeeffect, bu perceived stimulus coming. >> you have the twin concerns. the presidential race which could go days or weeks, but the one that's looked like it is poised to go into thanksgiving or further is the senate in reality, given the fact you are in the middle of a trading range, you had a bad october not only because of the election uncertainty, but the acceleration of the virus and that we wouldn't get the results

of the election. that is a recipe of training down to perhaps the 200-day moving average of 3130 for the s&p 500. but ultimately when you look at these circumstances, the fact you will likely get substantial stimulus in all political configurations bodes well for a strong rebound once we get through the uncertainty. >> it doesn't matter to you when that stimulus comes? i guess what i am getting at, if there is some sort of a blue wave, stimulus is not likely to be passed after this election. you will likely have to wait until early next year? that doesn't matter to you in the form of the recovery, the shape and trajectory of it >> a blue wave or perhaps where the president wins re-election

and the democrats are in control of the house and take the senate over, both of those imply stimulus would be larger than what the market looks at i would say it would be in the case of next year and around $2 trillion we think that gives the market the ability to look through the fact that the virus accelerated is likely to dampen activities in the fourth quarter and first quarter, but then you get this big dollar that hopefully carries you through to the spring when the economy starts to reopen more normally. >> julian, thanks for joining us and bearing with us for those technical glitches at what point does the market look past the immediacy

>> i think the market is myopparticular in terms of how it has been trading. it is hard for me to even consider looking that far out. earnings aside and pe ratios. until we get through, i don't see it trading through f fragility. >> we are breaking out your election playbook.

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welcome back to "fast money. we are following a story shares plummeting out of china dierdra? still developing so far. t just days before the biggest ipo ever, the brakes were slammed. and changes to the regulatory landscape that could not just disqualify it, but change the business model there were some inflammatory comments about the chinese banking system to an audience of ch chinese banking regulators

it ruffled some feathers at the top. the draft rules on regulation which has surpassed it as the largest revenue driver alibaba has a 35% stake and earnings thursday morning will be an interesting earnings call. >> thank you some of the requirements that may be required could impact how it operates as a business. karen, increasing the capital requirements and micro lending units, that changes the story a little bit >> and there was some particular regulation about cross-province regulation two things, it may unlock value

by is not a bad thing. what you are focusing on is what does it do to the business, these regulations. as an alibaba shareholder, i hate this news it was a severe rebuke of jack ma, kind of shocking, but all right, i hate bad news like that but how much of a hit should alibaba going to take? they own a third it was going to be about 300 billion. so that's 1700 billion let's say it was 90. the market cap was decreased by 60 some-odd billion. i don't know where it closed that seems to me a pretty

egregious discount that seems like it's discounting a lot of penalties remember, there are so many great businesses there, the underlying business, clouds, grocery, logistics, a lot to like there >> tim, does this change your view of baba and does it have ramifications for other chinese techs getting in there >> basically alibaba is a myriad of five different companies from this country somebody investing in emerging markets, especially when a state gets involved in marketing, ownership of assets. china is also very concerned

about the perception of how they govern and how they govern in their business world in creating market centers i think there is going to be a slap or more than that on the risk here. but karen did a little bit of the math on what this has meant to the valuation of alibaba. essentially we are back to the driver of unlocking was carried out in the market over the last three weeks. i think at this point you have reconciled it unless you feel this is a broader attack on alibaba. the company has been through that before and i think they have separated themselves. i think jack would not do that on a global scale. i am an alibaba shareholder. i am not buying on this news, but i am not selling either. >> if we are to view baba as a national treasure, it is not

going to let it go down too much >> no. jack has been down similar roads before each time it has proven to be a buying opportunity if you go back to the march low which i think was 169, even with today's move that trend is still intact i would be very concerned on a close below 275. but the trend of higher highs and lower lows continues you closed almost six times norm normal volume. if you want to play the deep end much the pool, i think you are good with alibaba. markets trying to digest what a biden administration would look like. there may be reason to believe there won't be as big of a crackdown as one might fear. and lar,te some are fleeing

the greenback. but did the currency market have it right we have that and more when "fast money" returns (♪ ) keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. (♪ ) you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo

welcome back to "fast money. americans head to the polls. our next guest says hopes could be built on a biden win. jim, great to see you. an article over the weekend caught myeye i wonder if this is part of the reason markets have been rallying, the notion that perhaps no senators will be named to a biden cabinet, therefore no treasury secretary

sanders or warren. >> elizabeth warren would love to have that spot. bernie sanders would love to be named to labor when biden came in under obama, he inherited a lot of economic trouble and his take away was we are opening the economy only and you have to pump more money in than you think you do. there is no consequence for overdoing it, but there is a consequence for underdoing it because you don't have a strong enough economy and workers don't feel content i think i would look for joe biden to, one, move fast i have never seen more people spending time on the transition prepresidency than they have and i would look for him to

focus on coronavirus, coronavirus and coronavirus. it allows him time to do what he wants and holds off liberals >> he will be appointing a cabinet and the focus is on some sort after stimulus plan to get us out of the pandemic they will be looking to treasury and labor and how moderate or liberal that might be. are we to assume he is locking to a more moderate appointment to posts >> there are activists to have liberals in the cabinet. i think they will do that, but at the lower level positions who is his chief of staff, who is his treasury secretary. it will be comfort food. like ron mcclain who has been

around him forever who are might be robert ferguson or janet yellen, because he understands you can't waste a minute that if he comes in, he would have all democratic power and wants to move on these things. he wants people around him who he trusts. i can't express enough how he delights in comfort foods, people who have known him 30 or 40 years it will be a conventional inner circle if he were to win -- still a big asterisk, and he picks up the senate, you could do a lot with an all party move. remember donald trump had wasted several months because he didn't have a government in place and couldn't fill his cabinet quick enough to get a lot done when he

had an all party rules biden has seen the mistake others have made and will try not to replicate that. once you take that coronavirus banner, which is real and the only thing that matters. can you get rid of this virus, get a vaccine distributed to allow us to move past it once you do that, you can do a lot of tinkering you can do a lot around infrastructure because then it becomes about jobs and those sectors hurt by the virus. jim, in 2005 it was written about a team of rivals, is it

that joe biden would do some sort of tone of rivals to take a more conciliatory tone and try to heal a fractured nation >> i don't think he would. i would be surprised if there is more than a token republican in his cabinet. if he starts putting john k kasicks in his cabinet, there would be backlash. he spends more time than the average president talking to congress i don't think he will get rid of the filibuster right off the bat. i don't think he will pack the supreme court. i think he has been clear on those. one of the reasons he doesn't

have to is you can get a lot done through a stimulus bill, can do a lot under budget reconciliation when you win, you want momentum, your basis of power flows from do people feel good about you and the country and judging whether things are getting better, not worse. the stimulus last time, joe biden would tell you his regret is that they didn't go bigger. they should have pumped more money into the system and given themselves a bigger boost. that's what i think they will do if they win the presidency thanks for being with us >> i like the way jim put it, comfort food that puts comfort to the market, so nothing would be too radical in the cabinet if biden wins

i thi >> i think that's been the plan all along. i think he picked kamala for those who wanted him to be on the left i think there will be pressure on him to raise corporate tax rates to pay for the stimulus. >> which would be bad for the market why the markets are nervous about the election results and what bets they are making for tomorrow

alib welcome back to "fast money. tonight's implication could have a huge impact on marijuana tim seymour is all over this he is a portfolio manager for cannabis companies tim, what are you watching on

election companies >> no matter the outcome, definitely cannabis wins a blue wave would equal a green wave but state ballots which new jersey is the most important, but arizona also some conservative states will send a message to the more conservative states. look at the charts of the big msos they are things of beauty. they are extending upon the august earning cycle these things rallied into earnings three qs earnings is another catalyst the big holy grail for the industry is to what extent institutions can invest in this sector i don't think anything that happens tonight or tomorrow or in the next three weeks will bring institutions overnight because many will need federal

legalization but it is huge some names in my etf, itr has done well. you mentioned gw phrma i think one of the most fund lit sound. that's the way to play u.s. names at a time when this election -- either way i think cannabis wins, but a blue wave would be massive for cannabis. >> i echo a lot of the same sentiments i think you will see a more liberal approach i also think you will see similar -- if you see it, you

will see similar trading i personally am playing it through the mj etf you have seen a basing around the level. i am looking for continued upside in that space coming up, you have read the polls and heard the predictions, but what are the projections the market will dive into the pits and how will the currency markets react through the night? hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting

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up next, "fast money," will there be negative fallout on election night what do you have >> we talk about single stocks going into earnings. not so much about the broad market because we rarely have such an identifiable catalyst, but we do today. when we are looking at the broad market we have a lot to look at. i was looking at the fty

options. right now the options market is implying a 2 1/2% move higher o lower by tomorrow. buyers of those puts expecting it to drop below the price 2 1/2% in one day or over a week may not sound like a lot, but for the market it is when we look at 3% moves over one day or so, that is above average volatility consider one last thing, if you have a portfolio, these traders are only risking a hedge and the market is in a good place all things considered, for the year

>> moving down 3% would be erasing this week's move higher. thanks, mike be sure to tune in to the llfu show friday at 5:30 p.m. coming up, we will dig into the dollar trade next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice,

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welcome back to "fast money. the dollar falling today the greenback having its worst day since july what is the market telling us? it's great to have you with us what are they pricing in at this point, the currency market >> we are starting to sniff what could be a blue wave we have had a couple of test cases of that. early october period where the market was leaning in that direction. i think today people are sniffing it will be a high turnout election and that is more probability a blue wave means very

aggressive stimulus, bigger trade deficit and weaker dollar through stronger global growth i think that is the correct assessment we will see whether that's correct. one thing i will say here, this is not like where we will get the result in a second and will know everything that transpires. this will be a drawn out process. the senate is crucial. if we have a split government if we have biden in the white house but not democratic control of the senate, it is a different implication for stimulus >> let's poile boil it down in of dollar. it's decisively negative for the dollar, if biden wins but does haven't control of the senate, what does that do for the

dollar >> that is much more complicated. the state tonight to watch is north carolina if it flips, there is a good chance we will have democratic senate control if not, it could take days or weeks to figure out who controls the senate if we have a clean sweep, democrat kra democrats control everything, we will probably get a stimulus package of 3 trillion. if ot, it will be less than 1 trillion so the stimulus it big >> the currency market, bond market will be some of the deepest most liquid markets. will you be up all night what will you be watching? >> we stocked up on food and drinks, and i think the team is ready to cover all of the different states to get a good

picture. north carolina i think is crucial. early results from florida, if they are clear, then we can get a picture. but if it is close in florida and north carolina, then we may need to be up a couple of days >> if the dollar is weaker, the you your yoe /* /- euro looks like it will be weaker. what currency will gain? >> the most obvious play is the mexican peso in europe, perhaps they are turning the corner in terms of the growth of covid coming down. that would mean that the euro can participate rather than a week ago >> thank you

drink some coffee. tim, can you extrapolate this to the trade? >> you have to love a curran sit trader named yen, and we do love him. but to the extent he is walking about a weaker dollar, it is very em friendly mexico, yes. but it is traded in line with oil. if we get a blue wave that will not be oil friendly. places you could see a benefit and look at the juan and what that could mean in trading in chinese currency i think there is room there. i think the resource trade as it relates to a weaker dollar also. that, to me, is the one that wins no matter who is in the white house. >> let's play this out blue wave, weaker dollar,

stimulus, possible infrastructure, guy, stars seem to line up for copper and some of these resource names. >> 100%. better to be named yen than loony. any lldoar is short-lived because it will be smoked. the dollar is going down >> up next, final trade.

time for the final trade let's go around the horn karen? >> my final trade is vote. there is still time on the west coast. the most important thing you can do >> tim >> go america and buy southern copper this is a great chart. on a ten year, but certainly on a five-year alive and well >> with volatility, i like buying upspread on the ticks >> guy >> what is your time period for

tomorrow >> an exciting 1:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. we have coverage all night >> but that is the