mittit's midnight on the ea coast. we have a projection to make nbc news projects president trump wins the state of ohio no republican has ever won the presidency without carrying ohio and the state swung hard to president trump in 2016. it was very much a tossup throughout this campaign and now nbc news projects that ohio and its 18 electoral votes go to donald trump now, the overview here is ohio's nearly flawless record of choosing presidential candidates since the 1940s has made it one of the most cited battleground states in all the land democrats have worried its demographic shift and aging and whiter and more working class population could pull this state to the right we'll leave the reasons for the

analysts the rest of the night and tomorrow for now, the call is in and ohio goes to president trump. there you have it. he has 459,000 lead the count in ohio to be nbc's purposes is over at midnight on the east coast and 9:00 on the west coast, s p shepherd smith on cnbc, this is your vote on elections night in america. arizona is a state we're watching very closely. the state of arizona, that's part of vice president biden's path towards 270 if it happens, it would be joe biden's first big pickup he has a considerable lead now by percentage. it's 8.6% lead for joe biden a difference of more than 200,000 votes. of course, only 67% of everything is in, which is why

the nbc news decision desk has come to the conclusion that it's too early to call arizona. the democratic senate candidate, mark kelly, is also leading the republican martha mcsally in the state of arizona again, in this race, with 76% in and a considerable lead for the democrat, remember, mark kelly, former astronaut, has made an extraordinary campaign there a lot of money has gone into this race. that would be a flip for the democrats if it happens. again, too early to call if he does win, it would be the first time arizona has had two sitting democratic senators in modern history lots take a look at michigan michigan, one of those three states that president trump needs to win to have a path forward of his own he has a considerable lead in the state of michigan at this point. only about half of the votes in, though so, too early to call. pennsylvania's been called a must win it could be the last stop on a

very long road depending on how the rest of the night shapes up. pennsylvania way too early to call and it could be days before we have final results out of pa so, here's where both stand and its candidates stand on the road to 270 with ohio in the red column, vice president biden with 192 electoral votes president trump with 136 eamon javers in washington lots of eyes on arizona. a lot of eyes on florida and pennsylvania as well >> yeah, absolutely, shep. that ohio news you just reported is going to be huge news over at the white house where we're told they are in party mode in the east room. a lot of good spirits over at the white house this evening as they gather in the east room, it's spilling out into the grand foyer and the state dining room, we're told a couple hundred trump supporters there, partying down and watching all the results along with the nation. a couple of questions about the president's schedule tonight we haven't seen him tweet

anything for about five hours. that's unusual the president obviously watching all this unfold on television as well tonight and then there's the question of whether or not the president is going to speak to the nation tonight, whether there's a result or not. nbc news has learned that the president -- the signs are sort of pointing in that direction but no determination has been made about whether we'll hear from president trump tonight one way or the other that's something to watch for as we get past the midnight hour. as you say, i'm told they're all watching arizona right now ohio, although big news and certainly welcome inside the white house, that was sort of in their rearview mirror. a lot of folks at the white house had already banked on ohio, already banked on florida and they're looking at arizona with sop trepidation because, as you point out, that would be a big take away for the biden campaign if they're able to pull that out of the trump column so far we haven't seen biden be able to pull any states away from donald trump that he won last time around if he's going to win here, he

has to start doing that at some point tonight. >> thanks very much, eamon javers new projections coming in from nbc news now the state of virginia and its 13 electoral votes, nbc news projects those go to joe biden virginia had been likely democrat throughout this president trump lost it to hillary clinton by almost five points back in 2016. virginia wants a solid red state out of the solid south has changed dramatically in recent cycles. the suburbs of washington, d.c., have moved the day lots of government workers there. higher income, highly educated virginia in the blue column, pretty solid blue for a couple of cycles. now virginia has gone for vice president biden. another call from the state of idaho. idaho and its four electoral votes go to president trump. this one not a surprise at all trump won this one by 32 points back in 2016 the polls closed an hour ago

now nbc news' decision desk has given this to idaho. let's look at the new state of the race and the race to 270 electoral votes. vice president biden at 205. president trump with 136 and lots to go a state we're waiting for is one that had the polls close at 7:30 eastern time tonight that's north carolina. let's take a look at where things stand there it is very close still a difference of 75,000 president trump in the lead here still too close to call according to the nbc news decision desk. 95% of all the votes are in. and a very tight margin there. less than 2% 1.4% on the math as we wait for the few more votes to come in. still too close to call. scott cohen is on the ground in north carolina all night, live in raleigh scott? >> reporter: let me tell you,

shep, why when you see 95 and actually more of the vote counted according to the state board of election and 45,000 votes still separate donald trump and joe biden with the president holding a slight lead there, why is it still so close to call? look at that, look at the state. remember that 75,000 number. one of the reasons they were holding out is guilford county, that's greensboro, that was yet come in, that came in strongly with biden but the republicans can counter with union county, outside charlotte, heavily a republican county and that delivered for the republicans very strongly as well. we were looking all day at how the election day turnout would go in places like union county and johnston county. they did come through. what does it come down to? 117,000 absentee ballots have

yet to be returned they were requested, yet to be returned and north carolina has given those ballots until the 12th, nine days to come back if they're postmarked by today so, with 75,000 votes separating the two candidates, 117,000 ballots outstanding, it may be too close to call for a while. the supreme court has allowed that nine-day extension, decided on by the state board of elections. there could be more challenges to come if, indeed, it holds this state up. that's where we are in north carolina, still too close to call, even though almost all the votes have been counted. >> to put a point on it, scott, it's now november the 4th in north carolina so, every vote that is counted eventually, mail-in ballots, they have to be postmarked by yesterday, election day, november 3rd and then they have another eight days to get in

>> reporter: right they have until the 12th that's what the state has allowed thus far for postal delays and everything else and that, of course, has been the subject of all of these things -- these scenarios we envisioned, that the president has been talking about, tweeting about and talking about legal challenges so far that deadline, as i said, has been upheld with the supreme court declining to shorten it. but we probably have not heard the last of that. >> i bet we haven't. scott cohen, thanks so much. watching arizona very closely and waiting for a few more numbers to come in there let's take a look at the board as we have it out of arizona there's arizona. vice president biden with a considerable lead, 76% in. jane wells is on the ground in phoenix. do we have an idea about when the rest of these votes might be available so a decision can be reached there? >> well, it's funny you should say that, shep to play on scott's math, there

are still am, many votes left to count here biden is ahead by about 200,000 votes. i've been told there are at least 200,000 early votes that have still to be tabulated plus, the 110,000-plus ballots cast in person today here in maricopa county, those ballots are just getting in. when you vote here in maricopa county, your vote goes into a machine at the voting place. so, it is counted right then and there and it gets on a little data card. but that data card has to be brought here, along with the ballots, and maricopa county is over 9200 square miles it's larger than seven states. a lot of those trucks are just starting to get here now so you've got at least a couple hundred thousand early votes to be counted, the over 100 -- well over 100,000 votes cast today to be counted and then all the drop-off ballots that came in today if you dropped your ballot off today at a voting place, it doesn't get counted today.

they still have to validate the signatures that could take a couple of days certainly not as long as north carolina finally, trump is trailing by about 200,000 votes. mark kelly is leading at the moment by about 230,000 votes. and he just a few minutes ago spoke to a very small gathering, of course, in covid 2020, small gathering, socially distanced, to say by the time the night is out, he feels he will have a successful mission he's certainly not declaring victory yet. >> oh, i was waiting to hear from mark kelly. so, you have a time frame on this it sounds like at least a tomorrow thing asking >> reporter: you know, i don't know what it takes for certain entities to call the election, but the folks here say they're not going to get through the

counting of the -- today's balloting until well into tomorrow morning whether they have enough processing between now and then that it becomes clear that either president trump can't surmount the difference or it's so close we just have to wait. they're not really sure yet. >> okay. so, i really don't know what else to say. >> reporter: sorry. >> there's a lot of buckets of stuff here the bucket that is the mail-in ballots. there's this other that is the day of ballots and then this question about whether they actually count them. so, nothing nefarious here sounds like we've got to wait. >> reporter: yeah, you know, it was -- this was supposed to be one of the states where you weren't going to have to wait because they had, you know -- over 2.5 million ballots in early and they started processing those two weeks ago so, it's the sort of thing where

those mail-in ballots didn't make quite as clear a decision as some had expected now it is, perhaps, the day-of ballots that are going to make that decision one way or the other. >> all right thank you so much. i want to turn to kayla, scott and john so, we're waiting in arizona we're waiting in florida we're waiting in the rust belt we're waiting along the great lakes. we're waiting. >> yeah. we're waiting. since you were just talking about arizona, arizona becomes potentially really super critical for vice president biden because if he can pick off arizona and turn that over, then pennsylvania becomes less important. it doesn't become a must have. so, that's how critical that race is that nbc still has as too early to call. let's bring in now joining us,

social capital, joining us is he on the phone >> i'm here. >> it's good to have you thanks for calling in. >> nice to hear your voice. >> give me the way you've sort of taken in the whole evening. what are your thoughts on what you're witnessing? >> i mean, i think it's still a little too early to call any of the stuff. i want to remind folks, virginia went biden because of fairfax county so, it just goes to show you that in many of these sort of purplish states, the margin of error has been -- and every county counts and every city counts so, in many of these critical states -- if you assume arizona is now in biden camp, it really leaves trump a path to the white house where he has to figure out how to -- assuming he has ohio, he has to capture wisconsin, pennsylvania, michigan

and those counties -- or those big cities, those vote tallies won't come in for a while. maybe up until friday. i think this is going to be a nail-biter and i think it's going to be much, much closer than people thought. and i think that the democrats basically have a lot of soul-searching to do because this should have been a walk in the park. >> i mean, you're a venture guy. maybe your next business should be something that's better than a poll a way to figure these things out that are more accurate because that doesn't seem to be working. >> i think it's simpler than that i think bill clinton told us what the answer was, who was the last centrist democrat that got this done in that way in '92, which is it's the economy, stupid and i think that, you know, the lockdowns have probably hurt biden's chances. i think that the overrefl overreflextivity on counterculture over common

everyday problems has hurt biden's chances. just the chance that you can be calling such a close election after all that's happened in the last four years just goes to show you that donald trump is a vessel and he's a vessel for getting an inimportant message which there are tens of millions of americans that don't agree with the priorities of coastal elites they don't necessarily trust the media so everything trump has said they absolutely see truth in so i think in many ways the democratic party has shot themselves in the foot they may eke out a victory but it's in no way definitive. i think you can quietly put to bed the idea that this left flank emerges out of nowhere. >> i'm getting texts from people in trump world who say this feels like 2016 all over again 2016, as you rightly point, was a cultural movement. it was the cultural -- it was the coastal elites versus the rest of america and the rest of

america won with their candidate. and i'm wondering what you think america looks like in a potential second term for president trump or a first term for a president joe biden? what two americas could we wake up to? >> well, i think that if we -- if we really take a step back, i think 2016 was actually about the economics of globalization i think 2020 is actually more cultural than 2016 was because you've seen basically an entire mainstream media apparatus spend the entire four years of donald trump's presidency trying to take this guy down and he is surviving. and he may actually eke out a victory. can you wake up tomorrow and read "the new york times" and believe what's written in there? i'm not sure that any logical person thinking for themselves could do that.

so i think there is an enormous sea change that has to happen post this election no matter what the outcome because of how close it is. in terms of the -- you know, the economics of it all, i think what we're debating right now is whether all socks go up or all stocks go up but they're mostly go to go up. >> it's john fortt good to talk to you. riddle me this we're in this world of big data where we're talking about social platforms, one of which you used to work for in facebook, have all this data, are able to predict, are able to steer people in certain directions and polls seem to be getting worse how do you figure out exactly how so many people were so wrong? is it a data collection issue? is it -- what is it? >> well, i think buffet has a line, which is appropriate here, which is that, you know, what you see in a forecast is the stupidity or the bias of the

forecaster and whether it's on the left or the right, i think that people seek confirmation bias as much as everybody tries to find this sort of like middle path, they describe the middle path in the margin of error that now it's turning out makes these polls useless. here's what i'll tell you, john. today you've seen something incredible which is donald trump has lost so many traditional white republican voters. but then he has captured an enormous amount of the jewish vote, of the black vote, of the hispanic vote. now the old tried and true methodology of forecasting that used to lump minorities like us, john, into buckets and say, that's an all-democratic ticket, that's an -- is no longer appropriate because apparently we can also read the news and make judgments for ourselves there's nuances everywhere i think what we're learning is that the way we do things doesn't work on both sides of

the aisle and there needs to be a more first-principled approach to making these predictions that actually go in touch all kinds of people across the socioeconomic strata and ask them the right kinds of questions. everything here is broken. >> and i think something that a number of people seem to have miscalculated is turnout so many people talked about turnout just on the democratic side, talked about early voting, talked about mail-in voting. so many of the states i'm seeing and the counties i'm seeing, republicans, trump voters, turned out tremendously as well. from a data perspective, from a technology perspective, motivation perspective -- got to pause for a moment want to get to diana olick are you able to hear me? >> i hear you now.

we were just being told that former vice president joe biden is on his way here to the chase center you see that the parking lot has filled up with cars behind me. the idea was to have supporters here they invited 300 cars filled with people to come here before the stage. they said they would do that about two hours before he came out. we're told now that he is coming to the chase center. the word coming out of the campaign right now is interesting. it's slog. that is that it's going to be a slow crawl they're very encouraged by the turnouts in arizona and by their blue wall path to victory in the midwest. but biden officials are out there tweeting saying that you have to have patience and you have to have confidence. we did hear our first reaction from the crowd here at the chase center when virginia was called for biden. there was a lot of honking out there. again, just waiting upon his arrival, which we expect any time in the next, perhaps, 10 to 20 minutes back to you. >> thank you i believe we can get back to

chamath. i was talking about turnout and one of the major narratives concerns leading into this was about voter suppression. in terms it of the turnout numbers on either rt side of the political aisle, it seems to be very strong. >> john, john, john, listen, this is, again, is turning out much ado about nothing i read one article about one guy in north carolina who was arrested at one polling station. now, why don't we go to first principles and ask ourselves, why was this such an issue why was it made to be so scary i think you probably agree with me that i was expecting, you were probably expecting the national guard all across, you know, america to protect ourselves from a bunch of militia and a bunch of all these people that would have showed up to do voter suppression. instead, it's the typical kind of voter suppression that's happened in every other election

except that what we've actually seen is the judiciary get involved sooner, more prescriptively, and precisely to make sure, especially because it's a pandemic and especially because so many people mail-in-voted to get those votes counted. will there be some irregularities at the edge yes, but none more than in previous elections it goes back to, where do you go to get your information in the morning so that you trust it i don't know where to go i don't know if you know where to go. >> i go to cnbc, chamath >> he's very quick, chamath. this is scott. let me wrap it up. let me ask you one more question, as you sort of -- because of your pedigree of being out in silicon valley. has the recent friction between republicans and social media companies and the action by doj with alphabet changed at all the

c cal clue lus of who silicon valley wants to be elected president tonight? >> i think if 2016 was the elections of, you know, donald trump and facebook, i think that was cemented i think if there was a -- you know, a goat in it, it's probably more twitter than facebook this time around. and so that's going to have some ramifications. i think both republicans and democrats are going to go after these tech companies after this because it's just sort of a multi-headed medussa that they can't control. i just read a tweet, donald trump is reaching 40 million people to his facebook page. that's more than the sum total of "the times," nbc, all these traditional media channels combined we've seen a sea change in how politics is done it started in '16 but i think it cemented in '20. these channels are here to stay. they're more important than ever

but they're unpredictable. in that arbitrary behavior, i think both sides will be afraid of them and try to cage them and so i think that much is pretty much a foregone conclusion after this. >> interesting chamath, thank you for being part of our election coverage tonight. we'll talk to you soon still ahead, we are expecting to hear, as diana olick told us from vice president joe biden about 12:35, five minutes or so here's a live look at the electoral map as it stands right now. isovagrernafr s te th quick break

your money, your vote. fast approaching the bottom of the hour 12:30 on the east coast, 9:30 on the west coast i'm shepherd smith at cnbc global headquarters. this is your money, your vote on what is now election morning in america. it is now abundantly clear to anyone still paying attention at

all that as we say in network television, alert the affiliates, we're going long we expect joe biden to speak from wilmington at any moment now. we're told he will speak as this election officially enters overtime races in several key battle grounds are still too close to call the bottom line here, it could be hours, it could be days the rest we don't want to think about. pennsylvania, too early to call. seven counties in the state will not count mail-in ballots until later this wednesday morning in michigan, too early to call a final tally there is not expected but look at the difference here. president trump with a 292,000-vote difference. but only 53% of all the votes are in extraordinarily early. not by the clock but by the count in michigan.

in wisconsin, well -- or way too early to call. only 70% of all of the votes are in donald trump leads by 118,000 votes in a state where more than 2.4 million votes are in let's look at ohio nbc projects president trump has won in ohio. he flipped the state red back in 2016 he's kept it red in 2020 we're closely watching arizona watching it because it's part of a potential path for joe biden to the white house you'll notice that the county, upper right on the map, which had been white, is now colored in blue. and now it is margin for joe biden over donald trump is something like 200,000 president trump has close to 1.1 million votes. vice president biden, close to 1.3 million votes. but with 76% of the votes in, it's too early to call the governor says the state

hasn't even started counting the early ballots, the ones that were dropped off at the polls. it's conventional wisdom that the early ballots lean blue as opposed to red, but still not enough for the nbc decision desk to make a ruling on this one let's look at north carolina north carolina now too close to call with 95% of all the votes in, too close to call. the difference here, just 75 or 76, i should say, thousand votes. president trump with a 76,000-vote lead as we're in the final stretch in north carolina. of course, florida, too close to call president trump is leading and by a considerable 300 -- almost 380,000 votes. 96% of all of florida is in. we know miami-dade county that they didn't get the turnout on the democratic side that they had hoped for. especially in miami-dade

it looks like trump certainly has an advantage here. whether he'll be able to win it in the end, too early to call. in georgia, same story too early to call. here the president has a 300,000-vote lead with just more than 80% of everything in. still too early to call as we again are awaiting results from the atlanta area keep in mind in georgia, eight or nine counties around atlanta are the ones where the vast majority of the democratic vote exists so all of those votes are not yet in as a result, it's too early to call then there's texas too early for the nbc decision desk to make a call here even though president trump leads by 625,000 votes in texas. with 90% of all votes in there in the lone star state you see the counties in white where we just don't yet have the data they're counting the votes nothing nefarious we're told it takes a while to count.

in a very close race, they're still at it. let's take a look at the big picture. on the road to 270 electoral college votes. that's what's required to get to the presidency joe biden has 205, president trump with 136 he needs 65 more on the democratic side to hit that magic number the path is there, but it's getting tighter by the hour. as we mentioned, arizona is still too close to call. we were asking, well, what's up with the count in arizona? jane wells has done some reporting and has some answers for us now hi, jane. >> reporter: hey, shep, they're making some progress here. here at maricopa county, the largest county, they're slowly starting to count some votes cast today before that, you mentioned, there's about a 200,000-vote difference between trump and biden with biden in the lead they tell me here, they have 240,000 early mail-in ballots they still haven't counted plus of the ballots cast today,

they have so far counted 13,725, which is probably only about 10%. there's still over 100,000 ballots cast today in person they need to get through that's not even counting, again, the people who dropped off ballots today. those still need to be validated. we have no idea how many of those are. we won't know those until the morning. 240,000 early still haven't been counted, over 100,000 from today still haven't been counted there's still this wide gap that could be close potentially by the president. i have to tell you, it's been 3 1/2 hours since the polls closed to give you a sense of how big this county is, people are just arriving now from far-flung parts at polling stations, bringing in the ballot information to be processed here and counted. in fact, a woman just came up here and asked me if i knew where she should drop off her ballots. i tried to direct her in the right direction and said, hey,

i'm not your girl for that that's the sort of thing going on cars are starting to come from all parts of the county to drop off the ballots. >> jane wells, keeping watch over arizona by night. jane, thank you. let's turn to frank holland who's in the key swing state of pennsylvania i hope there's more than one reporter shift there, frank, or by about friday or saturday you're going to be needing some naps >> i think the ballot counters need more backup than i do we're in bucks county where mail-in ballots are actively being counted, as they are in the majority of counties around the state of pennsylvania. this process being done 24/7 until all the ballots are counted. the state of pennsylvania updating its website because it's gettingresults from counties all around. the latest results shows president trump with a substantial lead so far with about 60% of the ballots that have been tallied so far so far is the key phrase here. joe biden has nearly 39% of the vote we're looking also at the

numbers on election day voting and mail-in voting biden with twice the amount of mail-in ballots, the president with twice as many in-person ballots. that's largely how the results were expected to play out. seven out of the 67 counties in pennsylvania won't even begin counting those mail-in ballots until early in the morning because of a supreme court ruling, any mail-in ballot received by friday will be counted. however, the ballots that are currently in election sites and the ones coming will be separated, according to the state. they had a press briefing earlier today. they said they're going too be two different streams. first count the wunts in many counties they have and then count the ones coming in a bit of a complicated situation that may take a while. >> frank holland, thanks so much some language change from our call in the state of minnesota let's look at minnesota as it stands minnesota had been from the nbc decision desk too early to call.

now the official word from nbc news is, too early to call but leaning biden, which you can see on your screen is factual as vice president biden has 55.1% of the vote, president trump 42.8% of the vote. what was five minutes ago too early to call is now too early to call lean biden which cnbc can confirm rahel soliman with exit poll data this has been fascinating. >> on the heels projection that president trump would take ohio, we wanted to see what the polling tells us this time around compared to 2016. according to nbc news exit polls of early and election day voters, 37% of urban voters in ohio voted for trump care compared to 38% in 2016.

52% of suburban voters voted for trump. 72% of rural voters went for trump, compare that to 69% in 2016 honing in on the most important issue for voters this election, which of course is the economy, while 56% of ohio voters think that president trump would better handle the economy with 42% of ohio voters saying they think that joe biden would better handle the economy. how's that for you >> well, it's all very interesting. thank you. kayla, scott and john fortt, i'm just reading there's a big lawsuit out of california that cnbc says may be turn toward the companies instead of the labor. >> there are 300 lawsuits out there right now pending regarding voting in the united states a few that have been decided would essentially allow longer time frames for some of those states, as you heard frank talk

about, to count those ballots. i've been texting with some folks on the trump campaign and the white house and they say it feels like 2016 in the sense it feels close but they acknowledge that it will be close until a lot of these ballots are counted. shep, you just mentioned minnesota now leaning biden. according to nbc but just a few hours ago jason miller, the senior adviser to the trump campaign said on nbc trump is definitively going to win minnesota tonight. he said that's going to be a big shock to biden clearly there's still a lot we don't know, still a lot people think is going to happen but it's anyone's guess. >> it's time for another projection from the nbc decision desk it's a big one florida goes to donald trump donald trump the projected winner of florida. and its 29 electoral votes vice president biden and president trump. here are the latest numbers. 205 electoral votes for joe biden. 165 electoral votes for president trump. as tim russert used to say,

florida, florida, florida has gone the way of the republicans. president trump won it in a squeaker four years ago. and he's won it -- we don't know what the final numbers will be, but it's enough for the nbc decision desk to say florida belongs to president trump it was not a must win for the president, but it was a very important one on his path to 270 votes. contessa brewer is down in florida. what kind of reaction are you getting down there, contessa >> reporter: well, listen, there was a lot riding on this i think there's going to be a sigh of relief it's called because these folks have just been inundated with campaign ads. there you're seeing it one of the keys to this outcome was miami-dade county, the most populous county in florida, that hillary clinton won 2 to 1 in 2016, though she lost florida. instead in 2020, donald trump made major inroads in miami-dade county, peeling away some of

that support even though biden increased some of those leads in counties around tampa and st. petersburg, what you're seeing here is that the peeling away of support in miami-dade was enough to put donald trump over the edge here. as you can see coming in now with about 83,000 difference nbc news calling that for donald trump. at this point. what was leading to these decisions today, i asked every voter i talked to and they said coronavirus, they said the economy, they said, for those who say they were voting for president trump, they told me my personal finances are in good shape. why would i want to change that, shep >> thanks very much. contessa brewer down in florida, which has just gone for president trump. worry waiting for vice president biden to speak we're told that will happen in a matter of seconds. it was scheduled for about 11 minutes ago. when he speaks, we'll go live. kayla, a big bucket of electoral

votes for president trump. >> i'm reminded at this time four years ago, a little after 1:00 a.m. is when florida flipped for president trump. he came out after speaking with hillary clinton and delivered what was then an acceptance speech florida going for him this time doesn't have quite the same effect given so much is undecided. i'm struck by -- we are seeing the former vice president take the podium now let's listen in. >> good evening. your patience is commendable we knew this was going to go long but who knew we were going to go into maybe tomorrow morning, maybe even longer. look, we feel good about where we are we really do [ honking i'm here to tell you tonight, we believe we're on track to win this election. [ honking

we knew because of the unprecedented early vote and the mail-in vote, it was going to take a while we're going to have to be patient until we -- the hard work of tallying votes is finished it ain't over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted. but we're feeling good we're feeling good about where we are we believe one of the nets has suggested we already won arizona, but we're confident about arizona. that's a turn-around we also just called it for minnesota. and we're still in the game in georgia. although that's not one we expected we're feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan and, by the way, it's going to take time to count the votes we're going to win men pen pennsylvania

identify been talking to the folks in philly, allegheny, scranton, and they're encouraged by the turnout and what they see. look, we can know the results as early as tomorrow morning, but it may take a little longer. as i've said all along, it's not my place or donald trump's place to declare who's won this election that's the decision of the american people. but i'm optimistic about this outcome. and i want to thank every one of you who came out and voted in this election. by the way, chris coons and the democrats, congratulations here in delaware. hey, john, the gov, yeah, i -- the whole team, man, you've done a great job. i'm grateful to the poll workers, to our volunteers, our canvassers, everyone who participated in this democratic process. and i'm grateful to all of my supporters here in delaware and all across the nation. thank you, thank you, thank you.

and, folks, you heard me say it before, every time i walk out of my grandpa's house up in scranton, he would yell, joey, keep the faith my grandma would say, no, joey, spread it. keep the faith, guys, we're going to win this. thank you, thank you, thank you. your patience is great let's walk over here >> well, not an acceptance speech certainly not a concession it felt like, in white house parlance, that was a hard lid. in other words, the counting's not going to get finished tonight. we're not going to have a decision tonight the former vice president and dr. jill biden are turning in for the night. and the counting must go on. let's see if he says anything else here. he mentioned pennsylvania. his confidence that he would win pennsylvania pointed out scranton, where he

was born philadelphia, the suburbs where his vote as always been very strong and pennsylvania, with the rules that it set up in advance that really don't allow for much more than what's happening, except to wait here he is again. >> i'll be talking tomorrow. thank you. >> well, that confirms the hard lid. at the white house when the day is done and there's no more to be heard from the president, there will be no more activity, barring something extraordinary, they call it a hard lid. that means that the press corps and everyone else can go to bed. that's what's happening here joe biden says he and kamala harris will have something to say for us in the morning. we know that arizona's counting. we know that pennsylvania will be counting tomorrow we know that michigan and wisconsin are still undecided. georgia, he said he still has hope for, though republicans seem to think when all the counting is done there, that it

may be theirs. both candidates have a path to 270. we all have plenty of time for the counting to go on, depending on your perspective on things. they have teed us up for the possibility that it would be a long wait and a long count and, sure enough, but there are things to celebrate this night we've been reporting on the news every night that places around the count have been boarding up. we haven't heard a lot of problems we're heartened by that. we had heard there might be terrible problems at ballot booths, there might be long lines, there might be chaos, there might be other kinds of problems our reporting is that much of it was very smooth. that because of the early voting in many cases, the vote itself today was in many areas of the country an easy one to get in. so, we celebrate those things and we wait for a final decision this is not sabbatouers this is

counting and it takes time larry sabado is with us. how do you read what we're seeing >> i think what you said is exactly right, shep. it would be foolish to call this right now. no doubt there will be fools who do, but it would be very foolish to do it because there really are pathways to 270 for both of them you might rather be by a tiny bit joe biden rather than donald trump, but i'll tell you, compared to what the democrats expected to do, donald trump has done a lot better. so there are strange things that can happen in a lot of these states the counts can go awry in ways we can't imagine, the courts can get involved, the governors and legislatures in those states can get involved this is a long way from being over >> well, we have this from president trump, and it just came in because 2020

it came in by twitter. the president says, i will be making a statement, big win. and i guess by the metrics you just gave, it could be considered that, even though there's no decision yet. he certainly did better than democrats suggested he would do. but there is no decision yet need to be perfect, you know >> yeah. well, on something like this, you sure do. because four years is a long time when you have a president's legitimacy being questioned. i would apply that equally to trump and to biden until we really know who won. >> the rest of the night, i guess we could get a decision in arizona depending on how things go but we're really going to have to have michigan, wisconsin. one observation, for donald trump, there were a series of must wins. there are no must wins in particular stays now it's all about a combination of getting to 270 it's all up in the air

>> yes, it's very much up in the air. other states can come back into this georgia is not finished north carolina is not finished nevada is not finished there are states that could still surprise us. final votes, just a trickle of votes could change the results in some of these states that have, you know, 15, 20 electoral votes. so, again, you have to be cautious and you have to be patient. two things the american public's not very good at >> well, larry, we've just gotten a tweet from the president that i'm going to hold off on for just a minute because it feels like the right thing to do i'll look through this and kayla, over to you >> let's bring in don peebles. we just heard from the former vice the. he doesn't expect any movement until at least morning, could be days after that. what are you expecting how does this play out

>> well, i think that as you all were just discussing, i think we have to see what happens in nevada of course the rest belt. we have to see what pennsylvania does i think the race is much tighter than anyone anticipated. the vice president has many options to win trump has several options to win as well. so, the business community's going to be kind of sitting on pins and needles to wait for an outcome. one thing we like to have is certainty. uncertainty makes us uncomfortable. >> still, don, though, the upside as i see it, turnout appears to be strong for both parties, voting has gone smoothly this is how democracy is supposed to work but talk to us about policy. whatever happens -- wait got to get back to shepherd smith. >> we have decisions now in from nbc news the state of iowa has just been projected to go for donald trump. iowa and its six electoral votes

to president trump he is the projected winner there. not entirely -- not surprising really, but here's another one that comes along with iowa joni ernst, who was running for election there as well, joni ernst the incumbent republican had faced a pretty daunting challenger there with a difference of 100,000 votes. remember that trump won iowa by 9% back in 2016. and it had been listed as an official tossup, but ylan mui, this particular race and joni ernst, that affects the balance of power as a whole? >> reporter: that's right. the big story is the democrats have not been able to pull off an upset win and flip one of these republican strongholds they had been crossing their fingers they would be able to do this is one of the match-ups democrats had been hoping for.

theresa greenfield is a military mom, a moderate, someone they thought could play very well in iowa joni ernst, a colorful character on capitol hill. remember in her initial campaign she talked about cast rating pigs in her campaign ad. this time she came into hot water when she debated greenfield and couldn't remember the price of soybeans, something that's sacrosanct in iowa. it shows the republicans are having a much better night than perhaps they feared. >> thanks very much. i wanted to get to this tweet from the president on some things you have to check with the powers that be because that's how it works. sometimes you need to check with the boss, and i've done that here's the context vice president biden came out and said, they have to count all the votes. we're going to bed you'll hear from us tomorrow kamala harris and i will speak to you in the morning. we're waiting for the count, good night

we've gotten a tweet from the president who says that he's going to speak tonight that he will make a statement tonight. and further he issued a tweet that i want to put on the screen now that we've gotten clearance to do so he says, we are up big, in all caps, but they are trying to steal, in all caps, the election we will never let them do it votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed there is no evidence of which nbc news or cnbc are aware that there have been votes cast after the polls were closed. it is the reporting of nbc news and cnbc that the election officials are counting the votes. there is no evidence of widespread fraud there's no evidence that votes were cast after any deadlines. there's no evidence thus far than any rules were broken and neither the white house nor the president has offered any evidence to that effect. that said, the president has said he will be making a statement shortly.

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xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. welcome back continuing coverage on cnbc. we want to update you on a number of things that have happened over just the last few minutes. you heard vice president biden, the democratic candidate, his wife jill biden at the podium. they put a hard lid on the night.

said that he and kamala harris would speak tomorrow and right after -- which has sort of been his campaign style. now president trump has come forward and said a number of things, accusing people of trying steal the election and saying that ballots were cast after the -- after the polls were closed. something for which there is no evidence he stated -- there's an update here he stated, we are up big, in all caps, but they are trying to steal the election we will never let them do it votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed and then almost immediately, twitterflagged it. twitter flagged it by saying, some or all of the content shared in this defeat is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process. remember, twitter has been highlighting tweets that they say are misleading or inaccurate

as they pertain to the election. so, the president of the united states has been flagged by twitter yet again, and the president now says that he will speak to the nation at some point, a release not from the white house and not from the noh press office top of the next script, but in this case, a message by twitter. it's 1:00 on the east coast, 10:00 p.m. on the west coast, 9:00 p.m. in anchorage, alaska, where we have our final poll closing. and nbc news reports alaska is too early to call. polls have closed in all 50 states. on the road to 270 vice president biden with 205 elect orl votes in the bank and president trump and north

carolina too close to call by the confirming of the nbc news decision desk and here are all the states that are too close to call, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, 11 states still too close to call. too early to call i should say, all of these states too early to call and there is a difference. this just means they don't have enough in yet. vice president biden leads in minnesota and arizona, we are waiting for the rest bullet, pennsylvania, minnesota, don't hold your breath, breaking down tonight's results, eamon javers is with us the esults are now sort of on the sidelines because vice president biden spoke in his way. now president trump has telegraphed he will speak in his way. >> yes, that's absolutely right. what struck me watching joe biden there come out and talk is how helpless candidates are at this time of the night the candidates are sort of

turning into political pundits, biden there suggesting look we are still alive in georgia we didn't think we had a chance there. he was handicapping his chances in arizona he is doing with all the pundits and journalists are doing and the yups is trying to figure out where this race stands meanwhile, on the trump side, you were just discussing these two trump tweets that we just saw from the president of the united states. it's worth off some context here, earlier tonight, alissa farrah, the communication director for the white house was knocking down that the president might declare a victory prematurely before the results of the election has made she said, he is not going to declare a victory until the results of the race are called so what was the president doing then in this tweet a couple minute ago he said, i will be making a statement tonight. a big win. so the question there, if you

parce the language of the president of the united states, is he saying he's won the election is he predicting he is going to win the election or is he talking about the results in florida? it's hard to tell from the way this is worded similarly, with the president's another tweet as you just read, we are up big. but they are trying to steal the election we will never let them do it no indication of who exactly the president is talking about where exactly he is talking about and the theft of the election, of course, as you just reported, there is no indication to cnbc our nbc news there is any fraud involved in this election so the president parceing some things out it wasn't good enough for twitter. the question is, what is he intent as he is tweeting out at about 1:00 in the morning as the results hang in the balance. >> we don't know by what means the president is going to speak. we don't even -- all we know is what has been said we know that he says he's up big. i am sure there is a place where

he is. it's not on the road to 270. he says they are trying to steal the election there is no indication of that we won't let them do it we're not specific object who they are and votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed. there is no evidence that that has happened it's a series of words until there is some sort of action i guess there could be a speech of some kind he could release a video on twitter, which he's done before. he could go to a microphone, i'm sure someone would accommodate him. for now what we are left with is a tweet and a level of anxiety that didn't exist five minutes ago. >> absolutely. it seems clear, the president is putting down a marker here though, to contest this election if he decides that's the way he wants to go. also putting down a marker he might want to declare victory in the election he doesn't quite do it when he declares a win it seems it's worded so vaguely, he could be doing a number of things clearly send ac message to his supporters that he is putting down this marker and he's thinking about where to go from

here so much now will depend on what he puts in his scripted remarks, if he durkz in fact, make scripted remarks on camera tonight. >> one way he could claim a victory and stand up tall with it is on the battle of expectations, from all that the people on both side of the political aisle have been saying, eamon, it's not a secret, republicans were of the belief this night would have been over when it was actually last night and not this morning and they were wrong and many pollsters were wrong about some specifics. >> that's why president trump is such a remarkable political figure we have to come one another cliche other than the teflon president. this president weathered so many things that would have knocked down a lot he has taken on a lot of water and continued to sail the ship and it's a remarkable feat for a politician to have everything going on in the year, this years ago he is running for election

a massive pandemic, an economic collapse racial strife in the streets of the united states, that's all happening on his watch yet, look at what he's doing tonight. he is going late into this stretch in a night where a lot of the pundits thought he couldn't possibly do that. she outperforming the expectations, as you say, and that is a remarkable feat for a politician this president has a number of sort of political superpowers if you think of it that way one of them is to make all the conversation about himself he takes up all the oxygen in the room, turns everything into a referendum on himself. this election is a referendum on president trump, a big gamble that joe biden made is he was going to sort of play rope-a-dope and allow this to be an election about president trump and lie relatively low compared to what other challengers were going to do to reframe the election to be about them the biden campaign made a big gamble on that we'll see if it pace off tonight. >> the chronology of this may be

of value and interpreting it, because when joe biden came out, remember what he said, we're on track to win >> right. >> and you know he can make that argument in a number of states he can make that argument towards 270 and be factual, we're on track to win. and he very well koumtd acould, could president trump. minutes after vice president bind made that statement and he and his wife jill biden went into the wings, we'll see you tomorrow it's minutes later we got our first tweets of the president of the day. it had been many hours, the longest period of time i can remember really eamon without a tweet from the president >> look. there is some thinking in politics that you always want to have the last word donald trump is a candidate that always wants the last word when the trump campaign sees biden out there on the stage, they will want to match that with something they don't want the nation to go to sleep tonight having last heard from joe biden

they will want the nation going to sleep having heard from donald trump biden projecting optimism, telling supporters to hang in there. see you tomorrow what is the president going to say to his supporters? probably something similar and he may go even further in terms of where this thing is all headed and these allegations that he's throwing out there, baselessly right now, about stealing an election so that's the consideration for the trump campaign as the nation goes to sleep tonight, after having watched all this unfold, what is the last word you want them to hear from the president of the united states somewhere in the white house, people are frantically typing up some teleprompter script we'll see if the president sticks to it or not. >> you and i don't have a way to know what's that? texas, a new fall out of texas the state of texas has gone to donald trump 38 electoral votes out of the lone star state. there was a time when this would have been an obvious and it would have come immediately, not

tonight. in texas, there was a lot of work done by democrats and the southern tier of the state right along the rio grande valley. texas becomes bluer or more purple however you want to put it the demographics in texas are changing tonight the victory goes to donald trump and 30 electoral votes from the state of texas it wasn't a must-win for joe biden. it certainly was a must-win, well, not by itself, but it certainly helps donald trump get to his along on his path to 270 votes with 93% of all the votes in, president trump with a 650,000 vote lead. let's go to the overall map now. the road to 270 and see what that did to the numbers and president trump is now in the lead 209 electoral votes for president trump. 205 electoral votes for vice president biden. each has a pass to 270

neither has a single state must-win eighth combination of things for both of a lot of counting going on let's go back to the chronology of the events again. you married from vice president bind, the president admits he watches quite a bit was talking about what vice president bind had just said and how he was on track and on a path towards victory. donald trump then changed the narrative and then we have these two calls and donald trump is leading. the bottom line is, there is no telling who is going to win this thing and the truth is, we may not know for quite some time our own contessa brewer has been following the trump campaign from down in south florida this must be welcome news at 1,600 pennsylvania avenue. >> reporter: they spent a lot of effort getting the president out here on multiple campaign stops, definitely out campaigning in person in florida than joe

biden. the other thing is, we saw a lot of money pouring into this state. more money came in, in political advertising in florida than any other state. and biden outspent trump by a lot of money by november 1st, it was almost $100 million but it looks like the targeting ads towards demographics, towards african-american voters in florida, towards hispanic voters and seniors work, especially this message of america versus socialism, trying to paint joe biden with that accusation of socialism and that especially resonated with cuban american who's lived in miami-dade county, little havana traditionally votes red. what we saw was a scourge of support for donald trump among overall hispanics and certainly in miami-dade county that made a big difference in trump being able to garner all the support across the state of florida. because clearly other counties,

he dominates and biden needed overwhelming support in miami-dade county to carry that. he didn't get it this time around he still led in miami-dade county but it wasn't enough to combat what president trump was able to do here. you know i have been on the ground now for days and in different parts of florida, shepp, what i saw was so much passion for donald trump on the ground here and among democrats, it really felt like it was anti-trump. >> we heard over and over contessa about this concern about this socialism in america. it was a narrative we've heard for days now, from across that state. >> it does, for people who were veterans in the vietnam war and some even older than that, i think that that cold war mentality still resonates. the fact that many of them feel like their personal economy is doing just fine and why would they want to upset the apple

cart, so to speak? i think those two things matter and coronavirus, although it's very important and florida has been seeing some increasing and concerning trend here, that was not top of mind for people who live even in the villages. the oldest county in the nation by demographics, that was not what people were worried about there. they were worried about the economy and especially law and order. >> thanks so much, contessa. i appreciate your reporting all night. stay with us we have two more projections from the nbc news decision desk. rhode island and the four electoral votes goes to joe biden. it's a blue state. the counting is where the projection is in, joe biden gets four electoral votes from the state of rhode island. in addition, one other projection to make now montana and its three electoral votes go to donald trump. the big sky country is red and stays red, montana three plus for donald trump so the overall map on the road

to 220, vice president biden 209. president trump 212. it is tight as it can be with paths for both men scott wapner is with us. joining the coverage for the rest of the evening, mill lis m lee, i deliver it with a smile 5:00 a.m. what day >> it's now wednesday. >> good question. >> i was going to say, the way that this thing is going, it could take us to "squawk box" at 5:00 a.m. potentially on friday. >> i was going to say monday but there is a path to victory for both candidates here we want to get to that tweet the president sent out just a short time ago he wrote, we are up big, they are trying to steal the election we will never let them do it votes cannot be cast after the polls have closed. twitter then flagged this as misinformation let's bring in a former director

of national intelligence, sue, great to have with you us. sue, are you there >> i am. >> okay. great. him trying to paint the democrats into stealing the election this goes into a hack. be every the concern had been about actual hacking by perhaps foreign entities, foreperson governments, but here we are in a situation where domestically there could be perception hacks to get to the integrity of the election is that how you perceive this sort of tweet and what happens if this vote counts go for much longer >> yeah. so, i mean, here we have a really good news story where i think the american people turned out in force and the combination of the government state and local industry have conspired to make us both protected and resilient in our systems and you almost want to relax and

now we're coming into a pretty dangerous time where the votes haven't been certified we still have counting going on and now you got a disinformation threat where our adversaries would certainly love to amplify messages to delegitimize the election to me, this is a moment where you really need some leadership here to not exacerbate this message, let the system play out. it served us really well so far. have it play out encourage calm and let's see if our citizens can't be patient as this plays out we really don't need messaging that suggests ill legitimacy, because, man, that will be picked up by those who would do us harm. >> who are you thinking of in terms of the entity that could do us harm and in what form could they seize upon tweets like this sent out by the president to amplify that information orr

misinformation campaign? >> well, we certainly know that the russians did this after the 2016 election, where they kind of amplified messages and jumped in there to sew discord. as i said before, elections are the threat surface what they are really trying to do is undermine america and our belief in ourselves. so you will see disinformation you may see either amplifying messages that are sent out by various paritities here or crean there own. so russia is one since 2016 and this election cycle we have seen iran leaping into the fray. it's not really china's gig to do this. but it's possible they can do it whether it is spoofing messages, creating messages, ample applying messages or inserting messages that say you can't trust it, it's illegitimate.

it won't be certified. there is massive fraud going on, our adversaries can create that message. this is really a time we don't want to give them the on by saying it about ourselves. >> hey, sue, it's scott wapner >> hey, scott. >> nice to see you again you mentioned iran i'm wondering you make of the news that broke several hours ago the u.s. undertook a cyber operation against iran as a part of an effort to secure the election >> when i mentioned that i'm really proud of what the combination of the government and state and local industries have done to better protect ourselves, one of the element has been the combination of u.s. cyber com and the national security agency persistently engaging oured a v adversaries o either deter them or encourage their activities against us. so we know that iran had been planning some activities

they aren't the only one i think it's a great news story about what the u.s. at large and cybercom has been able to do to be able to meet our adversaries outside our boundaries in addition to all the things we've done with our own infrastructure >> sue, great to see you >> you as well, mellissa good night >> all right >> go america. >> let's talk about the big money impact of tonight's election certainly, we saw a lot of whipsaw action in the markets since the poll versus closed joining us is gugenheim officer scott minor, great to have you with us. >> it's great to be here. >> we seen nasdaq up 400 points, the dollar up a percent. we seen the ten-year treasury yield go as high as 0.944. what's your take so far on the markets and the elections? >> well, i think that the market was discounting a blue wave.

and i think that was evidenced by the run-up we had in after-hours trading early on and plus the, you know, the increase in bond yields, but i think once it was apparent that we are not going to get the blue wave, that we're likely at a minimum to end up with a divided congress that the likelihood of getting any stimulus done or anything else that was being discounted has declined dramatically and while i am positive about the market, whether trump wins or biden wince, i think the biden would be given more of a whiff if he is elected president with a democratic congress or a democratic senate. without a democratic senate, it's just gentleman to be more

gridlock in washington >> i'm kind of surprised to hear you say are you positive on the market regardless of who wins tonight, scott, because it wasn't all that long ago that you were anything but. >> well, yes, scott, you know, i'm manic that way no, more seriously, look, i have been pretty negative over the last month or two because the seasonals have turned against us you know, i have come to understand that given the liq d liquidity coming into the market based upon the support of the bond market and other markets by the federal reserve, that all this liquidity has to go somewhere and when you look at valuations on stocks versus where we, you know, versus what bond yields are, the valuation makes a lot of sense as a matter of fact, it's probably fairly valued

i think the big surprise i had relative to my original views back in march and april was that i didn't expect to see corporate earnings come back as strongly as they did. >> but what happens in the scenario, scott, where there is no clear winner and either we are still waiting for the votes to be counted or there is a contested election we were just talking about the tweet that president trump sent out accusing the democrats of quote/unquote stealing the election that he won't let them do that, which sort of sets the stage for contesting the election, itself, in that scenario, what himself to financial conditions and can the fed still rescue the markets? >> well, melissa, i think that the key in analyzing the situation is to, you know, ask yourself the question, are you an investor? are you a speculator if you are an investor, you know, you tend to look through this kind of noise and say what

will the world look like in three-to-six months? and that's what i would expect over that course of time to see stock prices higher. but in the near term, obviously, with a contested election, which i thought was highly likely, anyway, you know, there is going to be turbulence and uncertainty. i think the real question is how hard will a candidate fight to not accept the outcome of the election and how much anarchy we get in the streets as a result of it. >> so the moral of this story sounds to me, scott, that if even if biden was to pull this out, that liquidity trumps, so to speak, higher corporate taxes, higher capital gains tacks, the possibility of more r regulation and whatever else negative that someone wanted to throw on that sunday for the market >> i believe so, scott

i think that the reality is that it took -- it was a foregone conclusion if we had a blue wave that, you nope, we were going to get a large stimulus package no later than january the, you know, now that that's off the table, it's not, you know the likelihood of a big lift economic output and earnings, which we would expect under that sort of scenario in the short run is going to disappear. so, that's why -- but even still, just getting this election behind us, given the liquidity, it's likely that, you know, equity prices are still going to go higher the tax increase was more of a kind of second half of the year or issue for 2021 and, you know, i think the market would begin to worry about discounting that based on the progress of tax legislation, if there had been a biden sweep.

>> scott, always great to speak with you thank you. >> thank you, melissa, thank you, scott >> shepp, over to you. >> we are now hearing from mercedes schlapp from the president's campaign that people are gathered in the east room of the white house and mercedes schlapp suggests that they are waiting to hear from the president. now the president said he would send a message, which he did on twitter. he wasn't specific about going to a microphone. it's entirely possible that he could do so. mercedes sent out a photo by twitter, which indicated people were standing around the flags were up. they were waiting for the possibility of a speech. it's important to remember the context of all this here are the possibility of factual things that could happen. we could get arizona numbers, arizona could go for joe biden then we could get numbers from michigan and wisconsin that could give us an indication of where this election will head.

instead, the discussion has moved to whether the president is about to speak, his accusations that there might have been, there might be an attempt to steal an election and somebody might have attempted to vote after the polls were closed, something of which we have no factual indication so we wait for the president and to see what happens next this is cnbc ♪ [ sneeze ] skip to cold relief fast with

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your money your vote, fast approaching 1:30 on the east coast, 10:30 on the west coast i'm sheppard smith at cnbc global headquarters. now it's morning day in america. right now, we are waiting to hear from president trump. he indicates he may speak as america waits to find out who wins and it looks like we should be prepared to wait longer a big picture. the electoral map president trump with 213 and joe biden

with 210 as you can see, several battleground states are up for grabs on both sides. we don't expect final results in pennsylvania, isconsin, michigan and even georgia. in nebraska and this is their -- [ lost audio ] and one will go to joe biden this may not sound like much, but it can be a very big deal. i'll explain it all in just a moment that one that he got out of nebraska that joe biden got out of nebraska is from nebraska's second district. that's the area including omaha and surrounding areas. there was the possibility that that would have gone red instead nebraska's second district goes blue, the details on that? just a moment. arizona now, arizona is too early to call. joe biden leading there right now. arizona is one where they're going to be counting votes

it sound like through much of the night. it's a big county. maricopa county, where they're having to bring in the ballots throughout the county. we have had jane wells there all evening and now the early morning and waiting to find out where arizona's numbers fall, it is clear it is too early to call from the nbc news decision desk. factually, we can look at the map and see joe biden is leading by 161,000 votes north carolina now, president trump too early to call, 95% of all the votes in president trump with a 76,000 vote-lead in the state of north carolina now to the state of georgia. where the nbc news decision desk continues to say it is too close to call. president trump with a close to a quarter million vote spread here and a sizable lead by percentages 87% of georgia in. but here's the key the votes we are told are votes in and around atlanta.

atlanta and the nine counties that surround it are heavily democratic we believe our decision desk believes that many of the votes come from that area. so that this is not a callable race that georgia is still too close to call with 87% of the vote, with 87% of the vote in. i want to talk first before going to a phone call, i want to talk first about the importance of nebraska's second district. come up on cam, here is a series of possibilities let's think about arizona. where everything now is about what the paths are president trump has a path here's one for vice president biden. if vice president biden wins in arizona, where he now has a lead if he wins in arizona too early to call, if he wins in arizona, he needed nebraska's second district and then one other to

be able to make his way to 270 so if he wins arizona, he has now won the second district in nebraska there are multiple paths for joe biden to get the nomination and the 270 electoral votes. there is also a path for president trump. but the narrative has now been switched by president trump suggesting he might come out and speak and moving away from all those possibilities that joe biden may make it to 270 let's turn to eli who is a reporter for the los angeles times and on video with us as we want eli, the extraordinary now unexpected way in which president trump can move the narrative. he was successful in the moments after joe biden left the stage tonight. >> well, he was tweeting and saying that he would be speaking soon and that, you know, the democrats were going to try to steal it

obviously, it's not stealing yet when you want to count every last vote. but the president and his campaign, they intend to go to court to contest some of these states where there are laws that allow the count to go on past election day, allow absentee ballots that come in and are received in the days after election day in some cases to continue to be counted and the trump campaign is desperate to sort of shut that down i was checking my phone, the campaign e-mailing supporters as well saying today was a big win and we're going to win big but the media won't call it and they're going to try to steal it so this is the situation that he telegraphed. this would be the play this is the situation that the biden folks had hoped to avoid by maybe picking off one of the red states early on, north carolina, something like that. that hasn't happened yet although, georgia is still in play if it does come down to the mid-west, it's looking that it will and the count is delayed into tomorrow and perhaps beyond

that, the president is trying very hard to convince people that something nefarious is going on when these states are simply just counting the final ballots before producing the final results. >> eli, stay with us don't move we have an important projection to make. nbc news now projects minnesota and its ten electoral votes go to joe biden this is a late call with a late addition out of the state of minnesota. this had been one that we had been watching for through much of the evening minnesota, of course, was leaning democrat back in 2016, president trump, candidate clinton won that over donald trump by a 46.4% to 44.9%. it was leaning democrat this year but the ten electoral votes for minnesota go to joe biden so take a look at the big map on the route to 270, here's how

things stand joe biden at 220 donald trump at 213. the narrative continues because it was michigan, wisconsin and pennsylvania president trump has to win one of those, right, or that was the case those three up there in the rustbelt and around the great lakes, that's still what has to happen eli, this wasn't, that unexpected but the president hasn't said i'm going to come out and speak. he said, i'll make a statement he then issued another statement on twitter so we're left just to wonder what's about to happen while we're led to believe by his campaign that there are people in the east room waiting to hear from him >> right that east room is all set up there are a lot of flags on the stage. there have been a few hundred supporters at the white house in anticipation of the president coming down, delivering some kind of address. the president was very quick to respond via twitter when the joe

biden took to the stage. we saw him on television since that time, it has been 45 minutes. no word the president has plans to go down to the east room, the protective pool, the small group of supporters at the white house who will be allowed in to see that speech. they have not been moved, to my knowledge from the west wing. >> they have not, i just checked. the people has not been called in >> so we're in this holding pattern. you know, it's getting later and later. i know the president is probably not going to be getting a lot of sleep tonight. i from talking to sources on the campaign and around the administration, they were feeling very good early on given how clear, decisive the win in florida was and i think also the results in north carolina seeming to go their way. that may not be officially called yet but i think the president's margin there has his supporters feeling pretty comfortable about holding that state but georgia, that's still up in the air. a lot of votes outstanding now seeing joe biden flip a couple of states, nebraska to,

it looks like he's going to flip arizona, minnesota was a state that the trump campaign had hoped to make inroads into they thought it was similar to wisconsin and michigan and the president's message might appeal there. a pretty quick call to joe biden of minnesota tonight so i think the fuller reality is starting to make sense to be understood by the trump brain trust at this point. they understand how close this looks to be at the end of the day and now ultimately it looks like biden had more paths to 270 than trump does, if he takes arizona, and so i just don't know if the president is going to come down and i think maybe he's trying to figure out. >> i have an update, eli the update is that the pool has been called in, here's another update, wisconsin, which was too early to call is now too close to call. there is a distinction and there is a difference and it mean this

is thing is really close and the da is in but there is not enough to do it keep this in mind, while there is discussion of someone trying to steal something, discussion of someone trying to vote late, there is no evidence of that, and with all of this chaos seeming to brew from just a delay, the counters keep counting and at some point we'll have a count and at some point we'll know who has won but in the meantime, the counters are counting. and frank holland is on the ground in one of those areas, where they're trying to get to the bottom things. frank colins is with us from the battleground of pennsylvania, where nbc news says it's still too early to call. frank to you >> reporter: definitely, still too early to call. as you see president donald trump has an early lead with 56 to 57% of the vote, joe biden about 42%. again here in bucks county, where the counting of the

mail-in continues, it's going on around the clock and all around the country. all the lights are on. you see some of the workers taking a quick smoke break this is a long and tedious process. we will show you a little of it. it is not action-packed or exciting but it is very much necessary. that's because more than a third of pennsylvania's 9 million registered voters requested mail-in ballots. 3.1 million total. you see how it works right here. it is a very labor intensive process. 63% coming from registered democrats. now, as we mentioned, the early results from this state, the early results show president donald trump with the lead with 57% of the votes counted so far, joe biden who barnstormed pennsylvania today with eight campaign stops in his hometown of scrantop, visiting his childhood home as well as philadelphia, he has about 42% of the vote. looking closer at the philadelphia suburbs, they're seen as key to winning the state, where 21% of voters live. joe biden, he has an early lead

in delaware and montgomery counties, bucks county where we are in favor of trump. chester county, basically neck and neck these colleague versus 21% of the voters based around the philadelphia area. philadelphia, itself, leans heavily democratic of course, these numbers, these stats. they can all change as more and more of these mail-in ballots come in. you have the issue of maim-in ballots continued until friday shepp, over to you. >> frank collins in pennsylvania, thank you. an update from the white house, mercedes schlapp tweeted there are people in the white house waiting to hear from the president. now the white house pool has been called in, in anticipation of an event, should the president come to the microphones, we will take you there live first, though, mellissa, the counting continues. >> the counting continues especially in the battleground state of pennsylvania. we want to bring in former governor of pennsylvania and

dnc, frank rend el, thanks for being with us tonight. >> sure. >> nbc deemed this race too early to call. are you ready to call it how is it shaping up in your view >> well, there were 2.4 million mail-in ballots sent to the different counties of that, 1.6 million were democrats. only 555,000 were republicans. so, i think democrats will carry the mail vote by somewhere around 950,000, 900,000 votes. donald trump is running about 700,000 sloetsvotes ahead. so i think the democrats should win by 200,000 votes when all is said and done. but we won't be able count it will take us until at least thursday maybe friday morning to count all these 2.5 million mail-in ballots. >> governor, on that note, the president is already tweeting what he has this evening what's it going to be like for

the next several days? because we do have to wait many, many more hours, if not days to find out what's actually happened in pennsylvania >> well, let me be clear about one thing, nobody is voting after the polls closed in pennsylvania at 8:00 tonight the mail ballots have to be postmarked and received, the ones that we received by the election day except to supreme court of pennsylvania in light of the covid virus extended the ballots to be mailed in for three days after the election day. but that's only if they were postmarked by 8:00 tonight, today. this evening so no one is voting. no one is casting their vote after 8:00 in pennsylvania we're counting the votes later we've always done that we've done that for years and years and years. >> at the same time, governor, are there situation or scenarios which make you concern could actually be contested? we already know the republican versus filed a suit to block

officials from counting the provisional ballots, so basically people who cast absentee ballots, if those were rejected, they were able to go into the polls today and cast provisional ballots. republicans are seeking to block the counting of those votes. can you see other ways in which votes can be questioned and perhaps thrown out >> well, the problem was they have to show evidence, evidence of fraud or some sort of scheme and there is no evidence there hasn't been any evidence and there is no evidence. >> governor, if vice president biden doesn't win the state of pennsylvania, how much will go toward his comments regarding fracking the pittsburgh post gazette endorsed a republican candidate for the presidency for the first time i believe in 50 years mr. fracking go down as the reason why vice president biden loses pennsylvania if, knack, he does >> well, you have to see the county by county breakdown to tell you that.

look, joe biden is getting a bad rap on that. because i was governor when we opened up the state to fracking. we have to do deep drilling. we did it because natural gas is better for the environment as a food stock for electricity and burning coal is. and so i did and i that you could to vice president biden about it way back in 2010. he knows, he understands that fracking is necessary because natural gas is a better thing to produce energy. >> he hasn't been as clear as you painted it out now, though that's led to some of the issues that have existed. >> in terms of ballot, he said a month ago in pittsburgh, over and over again, he said it over and over again, and he couldn't be more clear. he's against fracking on government land, but not on private land absolutely crystal clear >> crystal clear, although, that has still been, i mean, if you think that it's crystal clear, governor, then perhaps the

campaign had a messaging problem orvice president biden had a misstep in terms of how he spoke about fracking because that continues to be an issue for the industry so getting back to scott's question, was this a misstep by this campaign? >> i don't think it was a misstep. again, let me repeat he has always been for fracking on private land. that's 90% of the fracking he's against fracking on federal land and that an appropriate position to take i opened up fracking but i was against it on state land >> all right let's switch back to the vote counting, governor you said friday, is that truly your expectation >> well, thursday afternoon or evening or friday. but i don't think we'll see anything definitive tomorrow >> all right it's a long time to wait for pennsylvania but we'll wait governor, a pleasure to speak with you thank you. >> thank you >> ed rendell. >> all right let's get more reaction now to tonight's results. joining sus max baucus the

former u.s. ambassador as well to china mr. ambassador, welcome. >> thank you >> what do you make of how this is unfolding >> well, i'm surprised, frankly. i expected vice president to do quite a bit better than he seems to be doing tonight. frankly, i think it's partly a mentality of the east coast. it's somewhat similar to the mentality in the hillary clinton campaign that is not really fully realizing the sufficiently sensitive to working class americans, she in the mid-west and other parts of the country and i have been surprised at this result. i think the vice president will still win, but he's going to chastise him >> i think one of the positions of the vice president that's been criticized is what his relationship would be with china, which you obviously know well as the former ba ed there what would it look like,

relative to what it is now >> you mean with chosen? >> yeah. >> is that -- okay well, i've none joe for a long time i served with joe in the senate for 36 years and knew him when i was over in china representing the united states as an ambassador to china. joe biden is smart he's cool, he's calm he likes to work with the process. he will be fair but firm he won't use his twitter account. he will work with our allies, which donald trump has not done and he'll stand up to president xi jinping he will not change current u.s.-china policy very much. the hallmark will be really making america really strong economically first, building up the economy, focusing on covid, doing what we can to get that behind us. work on infrastructure in the united states and not only traditional roads and bridges, but also the new technologies of

the future make america strong economically that will enable him to project a foreign policy much more easily china will note that china respects strength. one thing i learned when i was in china chinese respect strength more than do any other people they smell weakness better than any other people some we're strong, strong in the best sense of the term, they'll respect that. >> but they've taken advantage of us for how long haven't they where has that been over the last couple decades minimum? >> they have taken advantage of us that's clear but i'm not going to go back and look in my rear view mirror, i'm just addressing what we need to do going forward, going forward is work with allies. my experience over there in chosen when we work together with our allies, we are much stronger chosen is good at dividing and conquering they divide and conquer companies, countries, they're good at it

we let them do it. china is about bully you stand up to a bully, they back down. if we stand up in the best sense of the term showing with erespect china but in a way so they've got to respect us, that will make a difference we cannot as project an image trying to stop china's -- that reenforces the hawks in china. frankly, a lot of the chinese i talked to in the last several days prefer joe biden. why? because they think a joe biden election will help them, the reformers in china, push back against the hawks in chosen and president xi jinping will be listening to whoever is stronger if biden is elected on the margin that will speak to reformers. that will make it easier for united states and china to work some kind of a combination. >> all that said, mr. ambassador, does that mean the china trade war is a thing in the past in the biden presidency >> no, no, it's going to continue for a while

i think that it will take some time for a biden administration will address tariffs it will be an inclination, to try to back down the tariffs but we're not going to do that until we get a quid pro quo, something from china equally important. we got to be careful, china is good at playing america. they're good as not making a decision they talk a good game, they don't do what they say they will do i call my three 's, the chinese, you fought to be patient, positive, persistent you can't talk down and be critical of them you can't talk to anybody, especially the chinese you stand up and i can give examples where the united states did stand up to china and they did back down, which you got to stand up so they do back down. >> well, the president may, the current president may add another p, that's punishing. clearly his strategy is to

punish china for what it has, you know, in his mind done to this economy over the last many years in manufacturing here in this country ambassador, it's good to talk to you. we'll talk to you soon that's max baucus joining us mellissa. >> thank you let's bring in former fed president richard fisher on his thoughts on the election and the economy. dig, great to have you with us thinking about a biden presidency, the convention is more regulation, higher taxes. yet the market seems to be okay with it at least is the promise of a huge stimulus package because of a blue wave, is that enough to make you think, you know what, it may not be so bad for the markets and the economy? >> i think the markets may be well adjusting to the fact we are likely to have a republican senate to act as a check on the hyperprogressives. which i think will help joe biden were he elected president. but remember the kye backbone of

our economy are not the market traded companies they're the small, medium-size businesses, those that belong to the independent business and if we layer on more regulation, move in the direction of more unionized work forces, sapped raise taxes, it's -- and raise taxes, it's small and medium size businesses that build theoover 70% jobs in this country now hold over 50% jobs, at least pre-covid that will be opinion annualized so it takes a while for that to be realized in a marketplace this is one thing i learned in the federal reserve of my ten years on the fmoc. that's what drives job creation. job creation drives consumption. consumption drives our economy est over 70% of the economy, whether here in texas or massachusetts or the economy as a whole. so, i think it's good to have a regulator, if biden were to win

the white house and keep the lower house, it looks like the republicans are going to keep the senate, if so, i think that's a healthy thing for our country. >> so that certainly would provide a check. >> on joe biden. >> right, on higher taxes and regulation at the same time that could provide a road block for a huge stimulus package you mentioned small and medium-size businesses being important, the backbone of the economy, if they don't get that help, they could be in real trouble. how do you view that divided government scenario with how big the stimulus package could be? >> i think they'll come out with a stimulus package have you as to remember, we've lever and our balance sheets dramatically the fed took down a lot of the debt they can't take down all of it and there's got to be a compromise somewhere between a trillion and 3-point whatever it is the lower house suggested i think they'll come out with that in the interim. you want to go overboard,

already we saw the ten-year backup to over 90 basis points earlier this evening it's come back down to the 80 basis points range the fact is, interest rates are rising very slowly there is only so much the fed can buy to suppress those longer-term interest rates so, we'll just have to see i want to make one quick comment on china i negotiated the protocols for their entrance into the wto. i did it for president clinton under the deputy, we were hopelessly naive in the way we negotiate it we thought they would become more like us they're not becoming more like us and i do accept what senator ambassador baucus, he's got some admiral general baucus, all things that he said. this doesn't end this is about who controls the digital space. not about soy beans, not about pigs, not about steam. not about car was. it has to do with how they control the digital space, who wins the race on 5g, who wins

the race on 6g, that's what we have to deal with. it's not going to go away. >> issues of the future. thank you for your thoughts. shepp, over to you >> good night. >> thanks, to you both still ahead, it is getting closer we've gone florida, texas, minnesota, what about georgia? there is new information coming in from the state of georgia, these numbers have tightened significantly. we now know why and we know that there the a possibility they will tighten further we'll give you those details coming right up. we have indications that the president wanted to speak. the indication was he was coming into the east room they were bringing in the white house press pool, now, instead, the press pool has gone back waiting for clarity. we'll be back. happy anniversary. (customer) for what? (burke) every year you're with us, you get fifty dollars toward your home deductible. it's a policy perk for being a farmers customer. (customer) do i have to do anything? (burke) nothing. (customer) nothing? (burke) nothing. (customer) nothing? (burke) nothing.

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. welcome back to our continuing coverage of the 2020 election 4:00 a.m. on the east coast. 1:00 a.m. on the west coast. i'm scott wapner along with melissa lee live at cnbc global headquarters here is where we stand at this hour a look at the road to 270 now, joe biden with 220 electoral votes, president trump 213 both candidates still have paths to the presidency. but a historic number of mail-in

ballots have states still counting pennsylvania's secretary of state saying that there is no way that they will announce a winner tonight over 1 million ballots still need to be counted 74% reporting there. president trump up now by more than 12 points wisconsin also too close to call, officials there saying results won't come in until tomorrow at the earliest trump leading by four at this stage. and michigan secretary of state saying the count will likely take until friday. nbc says too early to call, trump up by around 300,000 votes there. the race in georgia is tightening, president trump's lead shrinking to just 102,000 it was more than double that earlier tonight. state of play for the senate now, democrats lost a seat in alabama, turned over to republican tommy tuberville, former college football coach. did gain one in colorado, john

hickenlooper beating the republican incumbent there one for one. but democrats needed to win at least three for control. still seven uncalled races and the house race, democrat also holding on to control there. but melissa, it is clear and undeniable the democrats underperformed it seems expectations all across the board going in >> and we saw that he reflected in the futures as they roller coastered throughout the night the biden campaign putting out a statement, eamon javers is joining us with that >> yeah, a sharply worded statement from the biden campaign responding to the president who falsely declared victory earlier tonight. campaign manager saying that the statement about trying to shut down the counting of duly cast ballots is outrageous and incorrect, because it is a naked effort to take away the democratic rights of american citizens and they respond to the president's idea about going to the supreme court saying if the

president makes good on his threat to go to the court to try to he prevent the proper tabulation of the votes, we have legal teams ready to deploy to resist that effort and they will prevail. so sharp response now from the biden campaign to the president in the isaiah room earlier tonight. also we have a tweet now from the democratic chair of wisconsin who is saying that the democrats in wisconsin at least are confident that job can still win that state, will still win that state the reason why the democratic chair says is because absentee ballots are still being tallied. and those ballots will decisively favor biden green bay hasn't reported any results yet. so that from democrats in wisconsin. clearly a lot of states stilt hanging in the balance and nobody has this thing set in stone just yet back over to you >> with both sides sort of setting up for legal battles, is

this considered -- or could this be considered a potential constitutional crisis? the eyes of the world are upon us and the german defense minister told german tv that this is a situation that they are very concerned about because they see this as a constitutional crisis. >> i don't think we're there yet. this is a counting of the ballots process that is going on what we saw from the president tonight was certainly unprecedented and the president is clearly attempting to cast doubt on the legitimacy of this election if he loses that said, ballot counting is going on in all of these states that haven't suspended for the night to get a couple hours rest if there are court challenges, we've seen that before too in this country going back to bush v gore most notably where we didn't have a decision for i think it was about 36 days after election day so all of that has played out

before and as long as it is playing out in the court and legal process appropriately, it is not a constitutional crisis. >> eamon, thank you. let's get to the markets and see the reaction we had mentioned the dip in futures that coincided with the president claiming that he would go to the supreme court to question some of the ballots being counted. the notable reaction though is that we saw the rise in the nasdaq futures we've been talking about this, about a potential bid to safety in this market if there is uncertainty when it comes to the election results also a return to the playbook if there is a thought that there is not too much economic growth on the horizon maybe because of a smaller or stalled stimulus package. you may want to go back to the growth plays so we are seeing a dip to tbid e nasdaq futures and ten year yields, 17 basis

point range from top to bottom right now standing at 0.798% but we did see highs of 0.94%. joining us now for the hour, member of the "fast money" team, and also tomorr lee welcome to you all tom, i'll start with you, a couple days ago one of your scenarios was a contested election where it looks like we might be right now and you still forecasted a rise for the s&p of 5% to 7% do you still see that in the cards? >> i do. i think that it will take place in the midst of everyone of course very nervous and very wary because we want -- everybody wants in this democracy a klein election outcome. but a contested election isn't something that the market

necessarily worries about if it is clear that this is -- there is a winner but it is just a matter of time so i think that it is too ellie to really have a sense but before things get too bad, people have to remember that there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. that is why we saw the market rallying and if things get really rocky, two other things to keep in mind one is that fiscal stimulus still could have a path forward if we have congress figured out and roers the fed did intervene if the markets get extremely nervous. >> the president called the election a fraud tonight he called it a fraud he said he is going to the supreme court. you act like he barely did anything, that it is just the same as it was before. yesterday morning, quote, monday's rally has legs no matter what happens with the election there is less uncertainty now. it sounds like you're sticking to that even though the goalposts have moved >> yeah, scott, i mean those are

unfortunate words to be used because this is clearly a legitimate election. you know, i voted yesterday. i know that people were very careful, they were checking. i mean, no reason to consider anything about this election a fraud. but scott, yes, i think that the markets don't necessarily need finality if they can sense where the electoral college is going so i'm speaking a little prematurely, but i think in the next 48, 36, even the next 12 hours if we get a better sense for how the electoral college will play out, then whatever happens in terms of legal challenges is essentially a formality. but scott, you're right, it is unfortunate. >> dr. j, i want to go to you. i know you saw this action yesterday, i'll having trouble keeping track of my days there are a lot of bearish bets

with november 4, heavy put buying there the anticipated move by mid week would be down 3%, mid week being wednesday, today i wonder, do you see that in the cards, did you see that as being how the market plays out today >> melissa, i guess i don't quite view it the same way when people buy protection or when they bet on up side of any index or equity, they are basically either putting insurance down, that is the bet you're talking about, the down side, and i think that that is a protective bet because of the gains that they are trying to make shurm don't vure don't vanh overnight. we were down 5.6% last week. i'm not sure priprised that somy wanted to snug up a little protection and a high premium to pay for 3%

down side risk before they start getting paid, that is a lot. and i think right now we're seeing the vix today based on the futures we're tracking down about 5% right now and one of the keys to watch will be the vxn for the nasdaq and i'm sure we'll get time to talk about that later. but that one is up 42% since the august lows of that particular index, which you know was near market highs and then spiked up to into the 40s from like 26 now at 38. so still very elevated, even more than the regular vix. the nasdaq is elevated and yet those futures are also trading higher >> that's what i was going to ask you about, tiffany, that is your favorite spot the nasdaq and the faang futures like doc is talking about, at least right now they are all higher.

>> yeah, well, that is a good thing. but let me just go back for a quick second i think that you are right kind of not to skip over what just happened and i don't think that we're talking about a contested election, we're talking about just letting all votes count you know, this was a major thing that happened. i mean, this is america. votes should count and i think that the entire world is watching us and it is really crazy what is going on but i think that the market has kind of priced in what is going on i mean, listen, i don't think a lot of people expected to get -- for us to have a president by now. with record turnout, with 100 million votes being cast before today, we knew that there was a high chance that we wouldn't have a president today or

possibly not even tomorrow >> i don't know about that i don't know about that. i mean, you know, we had this whole narrative leading into today or yesterday, election day, that the market was ready for a blue wave, that that was priced in. how choo that ould that be prict now also a contested election is priced in? it can't both be right >> i'm not saying a contested election a contested election is different than letting all the votes count. i'm talking about the president coming out and making that statement. and so i don't think that that is what is going on, right i believe that the market kind of anticipated a blue wave, but i also think that -- listen, we really can't -- it is really hard to call because i remember four years ago the market thought that things were going to go a certain way and they didn't and i really do think that, you

know, tech is higher because i really think that the market -- >> you got to find growth somewhere, right >> sorry, i can't hear you >> i think we lost tiffany >> and we'll ask all those guys to stay right there. we'll check in with you in a little bit we do want to check on shares of uber and lyft, they are moving sharply pre-market this on the back of proposition 22 which would exempt uber and lyft from classifying their drivers as employees so that they would remain independent contractors which is a win for uber and lyft you see the move in the shares there correspond responding to that each up more than 12% right now. >> all right coming up, much more election coverage including a look at the latest cnbc exit poll data, what business students have to say

about the state of the race and their hopes for the next four years.

you just got a look at the state of the race as it stands right now. let's get unique insight, kayla campbell is an accounting graduate student at ohio state university, cruz is working on his masters in finance at ohio university and cady is working on his bachelor's. welcome to you all and i want to ask you from that perspective, what was the most important issue for you in this election >> the most important issue for me during this election really

pertains to health care especially because within both candidates' plans, they have different ideas as to what that may look like. and because we are living within covid-19 pandemic as well as a racial pandemic and everything he also th else that is going on, i feel like health care is a key piece in ensuring that everybody is well and healthy and alive >> and cruz and jayden have similar sort of takes. you are talking about vaccine distribution you want the path out of the pandemic as soon as possible >> yes, i believe the sooner we get out of this pandemic and we have a vaccine, the quicker our economy will be ableto rebound i know president trump has worked with a lot of logistics companies and specialists to ensure that there is a smooth delivery of the vaccine, but i don't see the economy fully

reopening until we're able to safely be around each other and be healthy >> and jayden, you are concerned about the reaction to the vaccine -- excuse me, to the pandemic, the handling of the pandemic i'm curious, what year are you you are an undergrad what year are you and are you worried about the job market coming out >> yes, ma'am. so i'm actually a junior and i think that i am worried about the job market just because in order for the economy to bounce back, we're going to have to make sure that the workers we have, they can actually go into the economy and actually work. so it is not just about making sure that the stocks look good or businesses have the tools they need in order to reopen, but it is about making sure that people can survive in order to work as well >> and when i look at how you

size up the election and huh you think broke the result on the economy, you think president trump will be better for the economy but that vice president biden will address more economic inequality which is such an important issue. >> yes i believe that president trump provides familiarity, which a lot of humans crave. i think businesses will be able to plan a little bit quicker in knowing what is to come if he were to win. but joe biden coming from the democratic party, i think those are issues that are addressed a lot more i think the pandemic has really showed the distribution of wealth and a lot of wealthy business owners have for then wealthier and a lot of the worker bees so to speak and the service people they have lost their jobs and they don't know if they will ever be able to recover those jobs and a lot of small businesses have had to

close. so i think that biden over the four years will address this a lot more, but for the short term in this pandemic, president trump will be able to get us through this >> we'll see you guys are good to stay up for us we appreciate it thank you so much. i'm sure we'll be seeing all three of you down the road best o >> thank you >> all right you just heard from some of our business student panel initial thoughts jon, you want to weigh in on that i thought that it was interesting the view donald trump better for the economy, joe biden better for income inequality, which will be a central issue in the years ahead. >> absolutely for matter who is president, that will be a central issue. i think overall we're going to have to obviously wait until the presidential race is decided, but these senate races if it doesn't end up being that blue

wave that we've talked about, scott, then you and i over and over again and i'm sure melissa as well have discussed exactly how that stimulus is going to be applied and how big it is going to be. in that purple congress, i think it is likely to be much smaller, but probably directed more at individuals through that payroll protection sort of thing as well as -- i mean in other words, i think that there was probably a little too much in that h.e.r.o.s. act i think it was called that passed in august out of the house and then they were at 3.4 and the house at $1 trillion and they never could find a middle ground at all. so we'll see whether or not with a divided congress if that is indeed the way that plays out, then i think whoever is president sitting in that seat wants as big boost for the american people and for the economy as possible. and we'll have to see how that plays out. this has been a game of politics

that shouldn't have been played with the stimulus. >> tiffany, back to you and technology as we see the nasdaq trade get a fire under it basically when the possibility of the blue wave sort of diminished, at least for now is that really the best case scenario for the tech trade, that president trump remains in office >> yeah, so i wouldn't say that. i mean, i tend to look at tech -- i mean, in a little bit different way. i don't think that tech is political. i think that, you know -- i like to kind of wrap my head around kind of three versions of tech like your straight tech companies, you know, like our usual suspects like the mic microso microsoft, apple, amazon, and they are positioned to do well we're just in this new time where we just need those companies and everybody is using them but i lalso think these companis like what i call tech adjacent,

like far fetch, fedex, u.p.s., lulu, chipotle, are which kind of adopted this kind of like digital way of work. and they have been able to really kind of pivot very quickly. and then tech enablers like your shopify, etsy, on track and also charter communications is part of that. so i don't think that tech political at all i think that tech is always going to find a way to win and especially given this new environment that we're in, right? we're in the middle of a global pandemic we just really never have been here before. that those companies will continue to do really well >> tom, the 5% to 7% s&p gain on the back of a contested election, does the shape of that gain involve technology leading it >> i think tech kind of has several hats, you know i think if it is going to be

used as a defensive trade, i think the defensive stocks will be part of that contested uncertain period, but the market still gains because cash has to be put to work let's face it, no one was really buying anything in the last two weeks, so we had a buyers strike but i mean, i think that the rally in tech overnight is the idea that trump's odds of winning have risen because, you know, tech was really -- would have been convenient to sell if people were worried about capital gains tax increase so i think that leads to the underperformance >> and although now i'm thinking again tom about your so-called epicenter stocks call. and if the president thinks that he has a referendum by virtue of the vote tonight to continue full speed ahead with the reopen, you could paint a scenario where even as the virus

is still raging in so many different parts of the country, the president is going full speed ahead and judging by the electoral map at this point, he has an 5uawful lot of support nt only behind him, but with him from people who will do the same >> yeah, scott, i guess if trump -- if trump looks like he is leading -- and let's say that trump is reelected he is also going to treat that as a mandate so i think that he could sort of get the senate to really back a much larger stimulus bill. so to that point, it seems like ironically the epicenter stocks would probably rally pretty strongly under that scenario but with huge, huge risk because of course we know soft lockdowns are probably more appropriate right now given like you said, the disease is spreading rapidly and hospitalizations are up.

and so i think that it would be wise for us to sort of slow the movement of people but if we're moving forward with a lockdown, i think people would view it as a cyclical trade with great health risk. >> all right stay right there we'll check back with you in a little bit straight ahead as we go back to our nation's capital for the state of the race and latest from trump campaign headquarters, plus much more from our expert panel and what they are telling clients as we a it with a the fin a wait the final results could be a long wait and bob swann will also weigh in

welcome back it is 4:30 a.m. on the east coast. here is where we stand this half hour the road to 270, biden so far leading right now 220 to 213, but both men have paths to victories here so is this a race that we continue to watch.

we have a number of uncalled races particularly in the battleground states. pennsylvania is one key one where we probably won't have a final tally of votes, final vote count, until thursday evening or friday georgia the same with some software glitches. so questions about whether or not committees need to be called to actually go through some ballots. so we're still awaiting the battleground states to be called take a look at futures and how we have interpreted all of this. all three major averages in the green. this is xwit a change here nasdaq still going strong. 320 the gain here. and s&p 500 looking to open higher by 40 points. dow looking up by about 120 points taking a check on the treasury market, we have also seen some pretty whip saw action

and taking a look at europe, 90 minutes into the trading day, we did take a dip lower on the heels of president trump's news conference but now we've turned positive in most of the major markets over in europe. team coverage to pick off this half hour with eamon javers and rahel solomon. eamon, let's stat withrt with y. >> what a striking difference in tone between donald trump and joe biden as both men came out to address their supporters starting with joe biden, he came out first, cars honking in wilmington, delaware here is what he had to say >> we knew because of the unprecedented early vote and hail in oig vote it would take a while. we'll have to be patient until the hard work of tallying votes is finished. and it aent over until every ballot is counted. >> the president by contrast

inside the east room at the white house speaking to his cheering supporters. the president falsely claiming that he has won the election and suggesting that he wants to take it all the way to the supreme court. here's what he said there. >> we want the law to be used in a proper manner so we'll be going to the u.s. supreme court, we want all voting to stop we don't want them to find ballots at 4:00 in the morning and add them to the list >> biden campaign responding to that calling what the president did outrageous, unprecedented and incorrect. so a war of words there between biden and trump as both men con telli contemplate their political futures here and we're expecting new vote results from the state of wisconsin from the city of milwaukee, that coming in perhaps within the next half hour it might give us a sense of

where wisconsin is going to go remember ten electoral votes at stake in the state of wisconsin. and you see the lead for president trump just over 50% with 84% of the vote in. this is the state president trump won last time around with 47.2% of the vote back in 2016 it will be an important change if that flips tonight. we'll see perhaps in a couple minutes getting more information. >> and i want to he go back to the president's news conference. when he said we will go to the supreme court, who does we mean in. >> it means a battalion of lawyers working for donald trump is what it means what we don't though, who he will sue, where and on what grounds. so there is a lot here that the lawyers will have to do to backfill to make what the president said tonight true. at some point he will have to sue somebody in some federal court somewhere in the country

alleging some kind of violation. and what we haven't seen is any evidence of what the trump campaign thinks is frauduleu fr. he said this is a fraud on the nation but without making any specific allegations, just saying they quote/unquote are trying to steal this election without even defining who "they" is necessarily of course there is no evidence of any of that, and so the lawyers will have to figure out whether there is a case to bring here and how to do that. but the president simply lawyer rattling tonight i guess you could call it. >> lawyers, lawyers, lawyers we may have cara swrvans of law heading to georgia in the days ahead too. we'll see what happens there rahel solomon is standing by with new exit poll data. >> and we may get a sense of the milwaukee vote within minutes, but we likely won't know the results from key states like

michigan and pennsylvania for days that said, new polling data supports that trump support is declining slightly by white voters let's start with white college graduates. we'll tastart with pennsylvania, my home state. 43% of white college graduates voting for trump let's go to milwaukee, 43% in 2020, compare that to 2016, 51%. and let's end with wisconsin, 40% in 2020 of white college graduates voting for trump in 2020 compare that and you see 41% in 2016. and white voters without college degrees, pennsylvania, 65% in 2020, compare that to 2016, 64%. again, milwaukee, 57 to 2016, 62%.

and wisconsin, 54% in 2020, compare that to 2016, 62% but that said, both candidates making optimistic comments about their performance. >> and it is interesting the data that you are talking about, i've got articles in front of me about trump's trade war, the president's trade war, and three different articles, headline, job losses to swing state michigan say it again we can make a call the four electoral votes from hawaii are going to joe biden that is according to nbc news. we have a look at the overall map, joe biden was at 220, so he goes to 224. the president still at 213

rahel, you were talking about the industrial midwest as i said, the trade war topic number one steel tariffs bring job losses, one article. this one in minneapolis, what happened to the steel boom you get my drift, right? the trade war has played big in that part of the country >> yeah, i mean that is a fair point and perhaps it is why we're seeing some of the data, some of those voters starting to move away from trump it is certainly a good theory. we'll have to see how it all plays out. it is really interesting that the last few states that are really in the mix we likely won't see for a few more days. so certainly keeps things interesting. buckle up. >> for certain with us for the hour is market jon najarian, tiffany mcgee, and also tom lee

and also joining the conversation now is american enterprise institute economic policy analyst jim pethokoukis jimmy, i'll start with you just tell me how you are thinking about how this whole thing is unfolding you laid out a bunch of different scenarios. what are you thinking? >> well, if you look at the scenarios i laid out, i spent a lot more time on the blue wave scenario so maybe i wish i had spent more time on the other ones but i did spend some time and i think the one thing that i want to conclude especially looking at what is happening in the senate, that the big down side risk of higher taxes, that seems to be off the table. you're not going to get higher taxes if are republicans

continue to control the senate the extent that you worry about the big biden tax increases would be negative for corporate profits, that is not happening >> what about the idea of another tax cut, a middle class tax cut? the president has floated it out there. if he wins re-election, he very likely will keep the senate too. >> i think the problem is that the president has floated that idea, but he's not backed that up with a very specific plan a lot of these ideas that he will float out there, whether it is health care reform, a middle class tax cut, infrastructure, that he doesn't ultimately back up i can see like a scenario where there is some sort of let's say the president wins and republicans hold the senate, that you get some sort of

infrastructure bill with maybe the business tax cuts which are supposed to expire, that those are extended that could happen, but then you wonder why this stuff hasn't already happened solock the next four years, but we could also have president biden >> and so i'm curious to know what is the first trade you are looking to put on this morning, whether it be a strategic tactical one or one that is broader on the indices >> well, i think especially this will surprise scott like crazy, apple, because i think exactly what mr. pethokoukis just described as far as taxes and big tech being perhaps more under the dumb of a blue wave, i think this will be great for apple and big tech quite frankly. and i don't think either twitter

or the "new york times" could stand not having president trump annie mor anymore because he's boosted both of those stocks by his tweeting and personality but what i think i'll be doing first, on the big pops out 6 ubuof uber and lyft, significant pops, there were massive bets to the up side in both of those stocks. on the up side calls that expire friday so since they expire friday, i'll probably be taking off some of that into the opening today >> tiff, if biden wins which is still a possibility, he has a path, the republicans keep the senate and the democrats for all intends and purposes will keep the house and they may have expanded their margin also tiffany, what is the trade in that case? >> so again, you know, i'm really looking at our

environment more so than who is president. and i know you want me to answer that question, but i really think that, you know, the focus for a lot of american people is really on their current environment. we have a couplekinds of group of people right now. we have some people that are kind of like falling off of a cliff, right, so they are either out of work, you know, they can't afford technology for their kids to go to school there are some kids that are not in school because they can't afford laptops to be in school and they have not been in school since this pandemic started. and then you have some people who, you know, have kind of gotten by like the past 7, 8 months, whether that is because they have stimulus or they have been able to have that extra

unemployment benefit but come january 1, all the moratoriums on mortgage payments and rental property, all of these things will have to be paid and so i think that that is really what people are thinking about. and then you have some people who were in a bit of a different situation when ho has been ableo save more and pay off debt so i just really think that that is what people are thinking about right now. >> tom, i want to get your take on what would your seeing in the futures, and that is green arrows across the board. when you take a look at this move, at a time when volume is thin, we see the chance of a blue wave diminishing so we see a higher tech trade? is that what is driving it in

your view? >> it is a good question i've been communicating with clients all night. so i think everybody did the college thing and pulled an all-nighter. and part of me thinks that the futures market is saying we'll get an election outcome sooner than we expect so i would say if i look at the markets, it is telling me we're not going to take it to the supreme court, we're going to have a potentially decided election by the end of the week. that is what i would say by looking at this. but i don't know, i'm not a political strategist but the other thing that i would say is it will be important to see on the fringe because many are identical, but i put stocks highly correlated to trump's odds and biden's odd and i think that is what you watch on the fringe and you want to watch social

media stocks because if biden would be strengthening, you would expect twitter to be weakening. and today will be important to see what energy does >> interesting comment about the election results being known, and that is being backed up right now in what we're seeing in the volatility index which is town 4%. thanks to you all. >> and on deck, much more market reaction to the president's comments on the state of the race >> our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation this is a very big moment. this is a major fraud on our nation we want the law to be used in a proper manner. so we'll be going to the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop we didn't want them to find any

ballots at 4:00 a.m. and add them to the list >> those comments around 2:30 this morning eastern time sending dow futures sharply lower before rebounding. and as we head to break, take a look at key battleground states still too early to call. a big list pennsylvania, georgia, michigan, north carolina, arizona, wisconsin, nevada, maine and ale has came alaska ♪

♪ you can go your own way ♪ go your own way your wireless. your rules. only xfinity mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. and switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, get $300 off when you buy the samsung galaxy note20 ultra 5g. learn more at your local xfinity store today.

the state of wisconsin still too close to call. maybe it is getting closer the difference now 10,909. joe biden taking the lead in wisconsin 49.3% to donald trump's 49%. those absentee and mail-in ballots being counted, that is expected to go until the wee -- well, it already is the would he wee hours. joe biden still has a path, donald trump still has a path. we'll see how it all unfolds >> that is razor thin in wisconsin. and let's check in with dom chew >> you know what is not razor thin is the moves in big technology stocks. let's put up some of the big movers pre-market.

and there is thin volume you take a look at the big s&p 500 winners out there, we're talking about names that we know we're talking about apache, salesforce, invidia, paypal holdings and elsewhere, some of the bigger movers, big movements with dow, apple, microsoft, cisco systems, one of the reasons why the nasdaq futures are up as big as they are. and speaking of those nasdaq futures, the momentum names that we know, zoom video, be invidia, paypal holdings, advance micro and micron all up big. and we've been talking so much about candidates and some of the other kind of moves that we're seeing, let's talk about some down balancing lot measures with regarded to proposition specifically in california

proposition 22 was a referendum, californiians voted fairly overwhelmingly to allow uber and lyft to classify their employees as contractors and not full-time employees. that is why those shares up about 14% pre-market >> thank you, dominic chu. coming up, final trades from our expert panel ♪

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welcome back. we've been hearing from two ceos, both spoke with jon fortt. the next topic we're exploring, education as artificial intelligence booms and threatens middle class jobs, they say america needs to step up its game and change its thinking >> from an education standpoint, when you are a developing technologies, in some cases that

makes some skills less relevant and other skills more important. there is a responsibility for technology companies like intel to play an active role in ensuring that the skills of the future and the workforce of the future are being addressed in the early stages of education. >> i think that it is really important to recognize that the future work is distributed and it is online so traditional education models may not serve the needs of future employees i also think that it is really important to put potential ahead of pedigree. there are many bright people out in this world who maybe started their job in the auto industry or in the steel industry and want to pivot to an opportunity in technology. you do not need a four year degree at an ivy league school to be successful in tech >> we want to get final thoughts now with our market panel.

jon, difference ftiffany still . and we've made mention of the broadening rally that we're seeing in the futures. nasdaq now indicating a higher open we're looking at a 333 point gain on the nasdaq, s&p about 27 points there we're seeing a broadening. and take a look at some of the other stocks aside from big cap technology that are gaining. we're talking about stocks in various agencies, visa, merck, gilead and these are just a sample of stocks that are seeing gains here tiffany, what are you looking to do if anything today >> well, probably take a nap first. no, so -- so my final trade if this is made we're talking about right now is going to be uber. you know, their uber eats

business really saved them tloit this year. and i love how they pivoted and bought postmates and so they are up compared to lyft which is down and i love the news out of california, positive news for all rideshare company, but i think that uber will take advantage of this. the ceo came out and said that they want to be the company that brings everything to your door including prescriptions. so i really do like their forward thinking >> jon, this is a time to kind of, you know, buckle up and maybe buckle down too. it will be hard to convince people to make any kind of big bets as long as this process is unfolding. unless, you now, you do what you and pete do for a living and that is place really short term bets. >> right and scott, i think that you are right. i think tiffany is right too look at the stocks that will benefit from soft lockdowns as

tom lee said obviously uber eats is one of those and uber just got that great ruling, so i agree with her. i think microsoft as well as a apple, i know it is mega cap tech, but if we see soft lockdowns, that is great for both of those and i give the nod to apple over the next quarter or three quarters because, you know, the iphone 12 is sold out virtually and tim cook can't even produce enough of those yet. i think the coming quarters will just be so strong for them as well as the devices we need at home so i think there is a lot of reasons to still focus on the growth plays, but i'm not throwing the value stocks that i bought out either. >> buy some calls in lawyers, doc. their value is likely to go up >> is a good point >> and just quickly in terms of some of the sub sectors that we're seeing gain, semi conduct

tors, micron, invidia, big gainers. we're seeing an unwind of the solar trade that had been bid higher in the notion that blue wave would be good to you s do you see value in any of these names? >> absolutely. in fact solar, wind, evs, you know, of course tesla. i see so many reasons to like the green sector on a selloff. and many of those, i own already before and the solars i think if they drop like under and there was significant put buying in those yesterday, i think that you pick those up on the cheap if they indeed do roll over because it still is the future, just how far out into the future before it really hits that hockey stick. >> let's not forget too, it is hard to get too negative it is easy to get caught up in the noise of what could be a rather chaotic several days.

but when you look longer term, you will get a vaccine, you will probably get more stimulus and the fed. but we'll talk about that later. that does it for us. a special edition of "squawk box" begins right now. i'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election. >> we will win in and as far as i'm concerned, we already have won it >> yep, those are the statements from former vice president biden and president trump overnight with millions of votes still to be counted the winner of the presidential race has not been determined as of yet we'll show you where the count stands and we're getting more data from the key battle ground state of wisconsin we'll take you there live. the special edition of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross