>> general motors reports earnings tomorrow. sales are back to pre-pandemic levels almost. >> dr. j >> financial services, and it's pete, by the way. >> i'm sorry >> you're the man. >> terry, quick, name? >> apple >> all right i don't even know if i got everybody but we're good "the exchange" starts now. >> thank you, scott. for the whole last 24 hours and hi, everybody, welcome to "the exchange." a big day for the country and the markets as we await the results of the presidential election crucial swing states have yet to be called. both candidates still searching for their path to 270, but stocks are absolutely surging. tech taking the lead, the nasdaq is up more than 4% right now dow is up 2.6% and s&p up 3.2%, that's a $715-point real for the dow, the small-cap russells are hanging in there with

three-quarters of 1% gain. here are the highlights, alphabet, amazon, apple, microsoft and facebook all jumping higher today you can see the gains for alphabet 6.5% for facebook, more than 8% this afternoon. we'll have more on that later. health care though is the leader amgen and unit health now in the dow up 11% that's contributing well more than 100 point to the dow's gain uber and lyft are also sarg. california voting for prop 22, huge win for that space. spent a ton of dough on that uber up 12% and lyft up 8% and building on the rallies and seeing no sell the news here today. not participating. take a look at the banks, some of the worst names in the s&p right now. the sector lower as yields have absolutely plunged since their overnight highs. the regional bank etf broadly down about 5%. well, let's get you caught up on the electoral map at this hour nbc news is projecting joe biden wins three of the four electoral votes in maine that brings the electoral count to 227 for biden right now and

213 for trump, but, of course, we still have eight state races yet to be called, and they are biggies. several of them are in critical battleground states like georgia, and georgia, trump leads biden by nearly 90,000 votes. officials say they have 200,000 absentee ballots left to count, and wisconsin remains too close to call, but officials say nearly all the votes there have been counted phil lebeau is in milwaukee fours and has more on this very tight race phil >> kelly, we've got a couple of breaking news developments, one from the trump campaign that we'll tell you about in a little bit calling for a recount, but, first, over the last half hour we have listened to the wisconsin elections commission defend the election yesterday, and let's show you what the vote totals are again, at this point nbc news is saying this is a race that is too close to call, so nobody is being declared a winner here, either by nbc news, other media organizations or by the state of wisconsin, but they do show at least as they tabulate the votes that joe biden is ahead by a

little over 20,000 votes, and within the last half hour we heard from the mississippi elections commission, and they got asked point blank what do you say to people who say this doesn't smell right, a little suspicious that joe biden jumped ahead hat the last second. here's what they had to say about the honesty and integrity of the election. >> despite more absentee ballots, the evening proceeded in a very normal fashion our election was executed with precision and it's also, you know, every step of the process is publicly observable. >> so what happens now, and we showed you some of these absentee and early ballots that were being processed last night here in the city of milwaukee. municipalities will start canvassing and certifying their election results this afternoon. they then report it to their respective counties. the counties then have until a little bit later on this month to report them to the state and then starting on december 1st

the state will then do a canvas where it begins certifying the results. despite the state saying that there is nothing, nothing at all that was wrong with this election, the trump campaign out with a statement within the last five minutes essentially saying we want a recount can, and by the way, they are within 1% of the total so they are entitled to call for a recount. the head of the campaign saying there have been reports of irregularities in several wisconsin counties which raise serious doubts about the validity of the results. the president is well within the threshold to request a recount are and we will immediately do so so the bottom line is this, kelly. right now the race is too close to call, and it looks like, as many people have predicted, we're headed to not only a recount but likely some legal challenges over the next several weeks. >> so, phil, let's talk about the prospect of a recount for a moment i know we haven't done a lot of reporting on this yet, but if that's the case, do you have any idea what coined of time frame we're looking at

>> i don't the elections commission was asked about the process, and they said there is a -- a defined process that happens for all recounts and that it begins by going through the results on a city and county level and then going through the results on a statewide level, and that obviously, according to the trump campaign, that's what they want to see. so we'll see that play how the here over the next several weeks, but at this point the state of wisconsin is targeting december 1st that's the deadline that they have had in their for months as to when they begin certifying their results. obviously we'll see if that gets changed at all given the fact that the trump campaign wants a recount. >> deese 1st we'll see if we keep talking about those kinds of deadlines at this point. it wouldn't be a surprise. appreciate it very, very much. phil lebeau in wisconsin with the latest this hour stick with cnbc all day election coverage meanwhile, stocks continue to soar despite all of this

election uncertainty the major averages rebounding for a third straight day with the s&p and nasdaq having their best day in months all of the sectors except the materials are green so what's it all about. let's bring in brian beleskey, chief investment strategist for bmo capital markets and cnbc's senior markets commentator michael santoli joins us as well mike, i guess i'll kick it off with you because what is your thinking this hour the market has been a strange animal to kind of describe all session, even looking at some of the names this morning, the vulcans and martin mariettas what is moving the needle here >> first off, the conclusion almost instantly that had the market was leaning in the direction of a possible blue wave and they have had to run that trade in reverse to a large degree what will did that mean over the past few weeks and then bond yields running higher. there was an idea that there was

going to be a big fiscal push and the economy was going to accelerate as a result of that under biden and perhaps a democratic senate. that seems to be not in the cards at moment and what that means, too, is the rotation that had taken place from large-cap growth stocks like tech into cyclicals and value stocks is now just being unwound to some degree, and it seems as if that low yield, low growth, pay a big premium for large-growth stocks environment that we were familiar with in the last decade and also earlier this year has just kicked in again and it just shows you, i think, the drama of the magnitude of the moves shown that perhaps the market was a little bit wrong-footed with regard to the mix of stocks that might benefit from what we think might be the result here >> and brian, i want to pick up on that point because, you know, people have been hammering the polls for being so wrong, but the market itself had kind of the same conclusion. i mean, look at some of the big shifts we're seeing in health care names and other parts of the market most affected but the

blue wave that to some extent had been priced in h.are you surprised, that you know, i don't know, i'm -- i'm not saying they were quite as bad as the polling industry but they shouldn't get a pass here. >> i like how you say i don't know i think there's a lot of going on quite frankly, and thank you so much for having us. i mean, you know, let's be blunt. the market has been all over the place with respect to its emotions and how to position this, kelly, and mr. santoli is spot on with respect to the prospects of a blue wave and what that would do, and i think there was a tug-of-war quite frankly, kelly, between the -- the likelihood of a larger stimulus package in terms of blue wave and what would happen on the tax implications for dividends, for cap gains, for personal taxes and corporate taxes, and i think, you know, again, you're going to hear a lot and it's going to get tiring about gridlock is good, but if either man wins here, you're going to have gridlock regardless, and so i think the key thing is that you want to buy scarcity and sell capacity

well, what's capacity. volatility, uncertainty. what's -- what's scarcity? growth, when growth is scarce, growth outperforms and you want to stick with secular growth and cyclical growth. more importantly the certainty of the fundamental business models of these tech stocks, of these communications services stocks that really define the mobile society and stay-at-home society were strong before covid and real during the depths of covid and they are going to continue to be strong and that's why these stocks are up. >> this is something that i'm a little flummoxed by today. i mean, you have the ten-year yield and bond yields generally sinking pretty precipitously from their overnight highs granted we're only back at levels from two weeks ago. we're talking about 75 basis points on tens and maybe a percent or there about thes on 30s and then it's we'll get a smaller stimulus package and i'm concerned that if that is that

large that stocks are doing as well as they are does that make sense to you? >> the markets make permfect sense to me, kell and you said it very well in your morning note when you talked about whether the bonds were wrong or the markets were wrong and in this case the markets got it wrong as well. they expected a blue wave. they thought that that would cause the bond yields to surge with an increase in spending yes, there was going to be an increase set of tabulation that the democrats are all three branches of government under control and today they have decided it's going to be a divide government that is going to be more of a gridlock in terms of decision-making, and let us look at why the markets are getting it right at least temporarily the equities are surge thinking that the democrats are not winning all three branches is positive they are looking for the fact

that capital gains tax will not increase, and you do not have to sell your stocks in 2020 other than 2021 or later that is causing the prices to go up on the equity side. on the bond side, i was surprised last night when i was watching the asian market and the ten-year yield went to 94 basis point, and i thought it was not sustainable, but i was surprised to see the extent of decline and now i think the ten-year yield is headed much further down because not only are you going to have the impact of a lack of enormous fiscal spending taking place, assuming that the senate remains in republican hands, you're also going to see that all the gridlock and not having a decision december or probably even into january is going to have its impact i think on for the lower bond yields. lastly, look at not only the ten-year bond yield but also the

two to ten-year bond yield spread, and that has collapsed overnight from 76 basis points in asia beginning of this morning and to 62 basis points right now, 63 basis points, and the bond market is clearly looking for lower pace of economic growth, not too much of inflation and a gridlock, and that is, again, some events that are pushing the bond yield down and possibly further. >> that's very well-stated so, motorcycle, let me phrase the question on my mind differently for you. for everything that sri and brian have just described, lower growth and environment, is today's kind of leap in the stock market sustainable i mean, can we have a rising stock market and low growth and low bond yields and, yes, i know we've had that for the past however many years but from here on out does it have to be that the

market -- market gains are much more muted to match the lower bond yields or that bond yields rise a little bit to match the optimism that we're seeing in equities >> well, first of all, i'll go out on a limb and say we're not going to go up 3% every day in the s&p 500 from here so this is a little bit of a grab right now and also just look at why the s&p is up so much. when the average stock is really not advancing quite as much. it is because of the huge index weight of the mega cap growth rates so those were the names when actually the economy was struggling a little bit more they, because of their own dynamics, had been managing to keep the index supported so that works on some. i would just caution and say i'm not ready to extrapolate this trend out from here. i don't know if this is the new character of the market and if you go back two months, the small caps are still outperforming the nasdaq 100 so it's not as if this has been up, up and away. this has been more of a course correction relative to where the market has been traveling over the last couple of months. >> fair enough brian, let me -- one second. let me get brian in here before we all have to move along which

is we mentioned that you like kind of the growth names, tech names, the scarcity plays and all of that, but what happens if we fast forward a couple of months time and have some kind of covid relief package even if it's not as big as we originally thought, the economy keeps humming. is it possible that all of these plays which people are walking away from right now could actually be relatively attractive into an economy in 2021, end of '21 and early '22 >> that's a great question and that really speaks to the broadening out of environmental strength which actually would be very, very good for equities in general. we would probably advise at that point and when we see that from a fundamental perspective to be neutralizing those positions and broadening out into the more economic sensitive things when confidence is built with respect to a vaccine and when we start to see broader earnings growth which we actually do think will be a reality, especially the second half of 2021.

>> sr ri, apologize. go ahead real quickly, sir. >> quickly, i think going with what you asked about what market is correct, i think the equities market is overdone and i think the bond market is getting right as it has done with past recessions, and the equities will follow the bond trend and then correct rather than the bond yields rise >> all right gentlemen, thank you all thanks for taking us through the market moves today really, really appreciate it let's turn now and dig a little deep neither election results and what we know about them so far. what do they mean for prospects of another stimulus package what about taxes and trade and what happens if we're heading for more recounts? here to break it all down, stephanie miller is managing director of fiscal markets and cnbc contribution tony fratto partner at hamilton place strategies and former white house press secretary under president george w. bush tony, which food choices do you most regret last night

>> it was the very, very late chicken pot pie that really i think did me in. it was in the -- just emt eat refrigerator at that point >> so, let me ask you, because we've been having this ongoing debate with the two of you over prospects for another stimulus package, probably still a top question to markets. i just saw one note that says they think we'll have skinny stimulus, fat fed. the fed is going to be more important and we're back to that paradigm speaker mcconnell left open the possibility of a package in comments just a short while ago. what do you think is most feasible now >> yeah, i think that was our view i think we needed to get through the election we hoped that they would have it a lot sooner but we don't know what's going to happen in these states when we look back we'll say because of the razor thin nature of some of these states as to whether they dropped a few trillion dollars on this economy a couple months ago, whether trump would be in a much better

position, but they decided to go -- to put it off, and we expect to see a skinny bill and then come back in the new year and do more. that was our case before and i think we think that's most likely now given where the electoral outcome is headed. >> how skinny? what would that include? >> some ppp. some test and trace and, you know, some money for schools, you know, so those pieces of it i think are probably the most important elements we'll see whether speaker mcconnell was a hold outfor language on liability protection or whether he, you know, put that not future. we'll see on that, but i think those are the elements to just get through the end of the year, and some additional plus unemployment insurance as well. >> stephanie, would you agree with that kind of possibility or do you want to see a different way of things playing out here

it. >> to me the bigger unknown variable is who is going to be in the white house if trump wins re-election and republicans hold on to the senate which seems very likely on the senate side as to where we're headed, then there's two things that i think would compel a near term stimulus package and having that probably be about $500 billion the first that there's no need to wait until the new year because the status quo will be the shape of the government so you don't have negotiating leverage if you're waiting until you have more power in one area or the over. the second is that republicans made a very active choice over the last few months not to acquiesce on their belief that stimulus should be not as large as democrats' 3.5 trillion but much more closer to 500 billion, so if republicans can just pull off this amazing feat, no one including republicans was expecting last night to go so well for republicans in the

senate and in the house, and so they are now starting with this mandate, that you know, telling them that the decisions is, the mitt call decisions that they have made to date are the right ones and what people want. otherwise they would not have been winning all these house races, so it seems very likely that the size is going to need to be significantly scaled back. >> and stephanie, there's so much, you know, more to this, but just the one other issue that we're going to be focused on for the next few weeks and relates to this obviously in the recounts anything you think investors need to know about the pace in which these recounts play out, kind of how that could change the calculus here in the weeks ahead? >> yeah. i mean, the court cases, the litigation, rhett counts, we might not have an answer on the election for weeks and while the election outcome is sort of in this holding pattern i don't see either side being interested in

trying to pass policy when they are not sure whether they will have more negotiating leverage in the future and, you know, just before coming on here there was a hearing in a court case about the u.s. postal service and it was unearthed that almost 14,000 ballots that were mailed were stuck at a postal service site so i think we're going to start learning about some things that are ripe for new litigation that we didn't even know before and it just argues for this not to be necessarily resolved any time soon. >> tone, is do you agree with that as we go? >> yeah, i do. i think that there is going to go long. i was talking to officials in pennsylvania yesterday, and we'll see where the numbers end up and how, you know, how close it is, but they are definitely going to be executing some challenges these anomalies like, you know, collections of votes, questions about how certain ballots are filled out this is for the presidency it's involving, you know, five or six states.

they very narrow and they are going to fight for it, and that's -- i think we would see this regardless of who is trailing and who is leading and we're going to go probably well into the end of november and maybe early december before we get answers on this. >> yeah. stock up on the chicken pot pies you're going to need them. >> thank you both today. beginning of a very long journey perhaps. coming up, the latino vote, one of the big surprises last night tipping the scales for the republicans. we'll discuss that next and the implications. plus, tech is courage surging is across a number of industries today, the social names. is this a one-day move or is the tech trade pack on, and it's a big move for the health care and insurers today as the republicans look to keep the senate in the is it too late to buy these names? we will ask, and as we head to break here's a look at the home builders, higher today we talked about low rates. well, guess what

mortgage rates also at record lows both for jumbo and fha, kb home up 6% and horton up 7%. we're back in a couple ♪ ♪

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welcome back gambling stocks are higher following the legalization of gambling in several states penn is up but off of its year high and draftkings is up 5% and down 0% from its high of $64 and caesar's also getting a nice bump, up more than 3% today. that year high for the stock was off about 25% for that level. as we look to the battleground states as those results continue to come in, they are busy with the slow and steady work of counting the remaining votes. vice president biden is still in the load with 227 electoral votes and president trump trailing behind with 213 and won the key swing states of texas and florida. let's zoom in on the sunshine state. one of the biggest surprises is how close the margin in miami-dade county was which experts are attributing unexpected support for latino voters perhaps it's time to kiss pell

the latino vote as being a monolith with us is the founder of latino rebels and co-host of the podcast "in the thick. it's great to have you, and i know we're going to kind of decompose this, we're going to break it down multiple different ways and talk about the cubans versus the puerto ricans and so on and so forth, but if you look at the three states where the voting is fully complete, the cuban turnout was 13 points higher for trump and the hispanic vote broadly speaking was 11 points higher so there's undeniably something real going on here. what is that, about the economy? >> no, it's actually about donald trump, the donald trump campaign doing what political campaigns do, invest in the communities. one of the things that people -- this wasn't unexpected i mean, if you're a latino political journalist or someone who follows the community, i was calling this way before it became something in vogue and

take the example of miami-dade ever since trump won in 2016, there has been money put into that district. they have really looked at florida as they had to win it, and, you know, you take -- you take the historical pattern of, you know, aished this of the latino electorate nationally, you know, you look at the cuban vote in florida. it skews republican, so basically that investment, it's good old-fashioned political outreach and messaging and campaigning and cult rattly relevant ads saying, you know, fear socialism it's very, very, very effective for that voter and the trump campaign knew the voter they needed to get and they got him. >> listen, people with direct experience with what you're warning about is a pretty receptive audience about being warned about it coming here. are you saying the cuban vote is an outlier for the latino vote

>> it's over, it's to 20 one other thing i want to direct people to. if you go out to the west and southwest, right now what's blue new mexico, arizona, california, nevada, colorado, oregon, washington state it's a mostly mexican-american, mexican voting bloc, and moving and more into the blue arizona is a huge, huge win for democrats. the fact that arizona is being call -- being several outlets. there's never been a unified latino vote and it's never been a man lite and i've been screaming it from the mountaintops for 15 years and what you're seeing is a western southwestern blue wall where the middle that have wall is texas which is still as purple as it can be >> right so now i guess, julio, the

question is if we look through the results and we say, you know, what is the coalition that we can count on for everything from the presidency to senate to house -- to local politics going forward, then how -- what is that, so if people say so what is latino vote in 2020 and did he move the needle >> he moved it in a couple of cases. one thing we need to do looking at the border region border enforcement is an industry and offers economic opportunities to a lot of latinos, a lot of those who life in the rio grand vale and also a lack of investment by democrats, not only in texas but in places like florida there's a lot of -- i was getting a lot of messages from senior political operatives who worked florida who are puerto rican who said democrats didn't show up for the puerto rican

vote they didn't want to win, it so, i think when you has a president that was targeting florida you look at the vote on the border n textia. sometimes have a lot of goal -- the win over texas for the democrats, that was an illusion. here's the thing this is what i'll same the latino voter nationally and statewide has gone up, and, you know, indication, it continues to trend up. with we're talking 14 million, 15 million who knows what the final number will be, but it -- this motion of like latino voters becoming the safeiors of like the democratic party it doesn't work that way i mean, historically speaking third of latino voters, and we're talk all the way to richard nixon have voted republican, and republicans know how to get the -- the hat know voters that they need and take the case of florida.

i am looking at a state -- >> we've got to go. >> looking at a state like pennsylvania pennsylvania -- >> what's your point about that though, julio? >> they are going -- i think when you look at the exit polling with pennsylvania, 72%, the national exit polling, 72% of latino voters, mostly puerto rican and dominican tied to new york city and eastern pennsylvania, philadelphia, paying a role. i think if it does turn blue latinos will play a role in pennsylvania as well. >> gas nating. the republican party counting on latino votes for being their savior appreciate it very much. julio with some analysis for us on what happened last night. let's get to kate rooney for our market flash what's going on, kate? >> hey, kelly, big moves in the payment stocks take a look at paypal and square square up 7% and paypal up 6% amid the election uncertainty. the tailwinds that have helped

these companies. think of consumers, they don't have a lot to do with the outlook of the investments we also have some new hope of a stimulus package with mitch mcconnell's comments a bit earlier which is boosting some of the other payment companies, mastercard up about 5% and visa is also getting a boost up about 4% and any hope of more stimulus and a boost to consumer payments is helping the payments company here kelly, back to you >> good point, kate. thank you very much. kate rooney. coming up, ballot provisions are giving gaming tox a boost said as they have several states legalizing -- infrastructure names taking a hit on the chin today. we'll take a look at what's come up on "the exchange. how we come up with new ways to serve our customers... and deliver our products.

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sector materials remain the only sector in the red right now more on that in a bit. let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update. >> hello, kelly, hello, everybody. here's what's happening at this hour senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says it will take some time to finish counting all the votes and he expects with both sides in his words, quote, lawyering up, end quote, the courts will be involved. as for president trump's claim that he won -- >> claiming you win the election is different from finishing the counting, and what we're going to see here in the next few days both in the senate races and in the presidential race is each state will ultimately get to a final outcome. >> the san francisco 49ers are closing their team facility today after a player tested positive for covid as of now, their game tomorrow night with the green bay packers who also had a player test positive on monday is still on.

and espn reports the nfl's competition committee is expected to propose expanding the playoffs from 14 to 16 teams if games have to be cancelled. you're up to date, kelly busy news day once again >> very much so, sue thank you. sue herera back at headquarters. still ahead on "the exchange," major indices are staging massive rallies as we await the election results and a tug-of-war between industrial and material names are sinking and health care stocks staging united health is up 12% and cats down 5%. we'll dig into bh mi u otcongp. before money, people traded goods.

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so you don't wait for life. you live it. welcome back we don't know the outcome for president but we do know what congress will and won't look like and health care stocks are soaring as a result today. bertha coombs joins me now with more bertha >> that's right. kelly. a blue wave seems to be off the table and for investors a divided congress reduces the risk of a major health care policy upheaval be it the democrats' public option plan or the potential for major legislation and drug pricing

which has failed to materialize despite bipartisan support in congress drug-makers among the biggest gainers today with the fda saying that it has enough data to support biogen and lily's alzheimer's drug but we're also seeing double-digit gains for health insurers today, the strongest performer since march and cigna up 25% this week ahead of its earnings tomorrow and ben isker says regardless of who wins the white house a divided congress now effectively means that most regulatory changes will be incremental rather than wholesale which is a relief at a time when the health care industry is in the thick of the pandemic hospitals today not getting as much of a lift they will still face pricing pressures as more people lose employer coverage due town employment, and potentially switch to plants with lower reimbursement rates. capital street managing director sass you if the uncertainty continues though over the fate

of this race, invest corps could become more circumspect and we'll see this bullishness kind of fade. >> thank you very much for more let's bring in a health care portfolio manager and anna gupta is principal at ag health advisers great to have you here les, for people who look at this one-day gain and think holy cow, is this sustainable. >> are these stocks a buy from him. >> yeah, yeah, they have the worst case is now off the table regardless of we know. i would say -- but as far as

long-term potential these companies are in very good shape and, you know, now that the macro is limited. >> i think cigna and etna, we're talking almost 15% gains does that surprise you >> it's more than i would have expected, but i do believe as lester said that there was a significant amount of risk that was priced in from a possible public option which is a path in investor minds to spay err and names like cigna when they have coverage under express cripps. i joel that had out uned and human anna it's right now a relieve really, the risk of the

downtown being on the table and what is not being -- unit as a very sthang flat tomorrow -- very stagnant tomorrow >> could this be a headwind or tailwind here? it's not a headwind for the big names but it is for santana and to some degree the hospital stocks as well but they are clearly not showing the gains that the other names have seen so i would expect that around november 10th with the hearing that the -- that the hospital names, tenet, santin, molina might see some pressure. >> les, what would your recommendations be for investors in this space works you know, are thinking that maybe health care is a good place to be it's largely speaking off the

radar. you know, people have said for months now it's -- it's one of the sectors that they think could benefit. it's just that i don't think anyone expected quite this kind of pop today. >> yes, i agree. i did not expect -- >> sorry, that that much was priced in, but there should be some there in general for health care from here. >> in addition to the insurers we'd be looking at live science tools and the 10 xs and twist of the world which are really off the radar but will benefit for instance creased science under a biden or at least a more split congress and then, you know, by and large the medical devices seem to be more or less immune from a lot of this macro stuff, so things -- companies like striker and boston sign tusk on the large side

the absence of really rat call or -- radical divergence. >> people have been saying that. that point was made quite loudly today. thank you both for joining us today to talk about these moves. we have breaking news on the senate let's get to ylan mui on the details. >> gop senator susan collins says that her democratic challenger sarah gideon has now called to concede the race which means that collins would hold on to her senate seat in maine. collins said that gideon was gracious in their phone call after what had been a hard fought and at times bitter campaign the upshot here is that this means that the pathway for democrats to take volof the senate has narrowed significantly. they still need to flip three republican seats

collins saying now that hers won't be one of them kelly. >> all right ylan mui, thank you. the nasdaq is riding hide on a monster rally despite the fact that we still don't know the outcome of the presidential race the big tech is all up big with facebook in the lead soaring 8%. are investors right to bet that no blue wave means no major tech regulation coming? joining me is paul hickey, the co-founder of the spoke investment group paul, good to have you what do you make of facebook's move >> i think facebook and big tech in general is a few factors. the first is that you're less likely to see the growth of the group under a biden presidency, not that there was that much of a let during the president trump presidency the there's no real chance of

the -- the that's another nuclear reactor and, third, if you have -- thissor they are more likely to be vagt northerly is purse strings that wants they want that will make growth more scarcer and stocks which are showing growth and consistent growing look more attractive in that rate. >> people also talked about the prospect of selling these winner, a blue wave with the potential amount cuts to be coming, is that right to draw that this version of the senate will be potentially less

eventful to big tech than a smaller blue wave would have been >> if you saw democratic control of the season you're -- the tax cuts that the administration passed and people will sell to avoid the increased cap gains, but i think overall what we're looking at here is that this -- this -- you know, we're looking back at the market here and we're focusing on the last time we saw uncertainty which was 2000, and there's fears that the uncertainty caused by that period had market weakness, but i think when you look back at 2000 there are other factors at play we already saw a downtrend in the market environment which was, you know, the tech sector and the tech bubble had already burst at that point so i think the uncertainty of the election wasn't really the factor behind the 2000 weakness in late

december. >> paul, given what we know at this point do you think the market. >> we spent the month talking about what's begun and we're also seeing other faction whrs when you lock back business torically and look back since 1999, republican presidents when they are first elected and the freshman to freshman day, the immediate return for dow is 6.2% and for democrats median performance under that same measurement is 6.6%. exactly the same thing you look at president trump and you look at president barack obama. we've mentioned this in the past the two, if you wanted to make up characters couldn't be more opposite tha

their approach to things, even their diets. people make fun of obama for eating arugula and make fun of trump for eating mcdonald's. they're complete opposites you look at the market performance under each president. you saw under obama, tech and consumer discretionary, best performing sectors under president trump, best performing sectors, tech and consumer discretionary you see energy, the worst performing sector under president trump, also the worst performing sector under president obama. with all the sectors you look at, you see with the exception of -- you look at all the sectors under president obama and you look at their ranking in performance and then you compare them to president trump and there's no difference of more than two positions in their rankings so, the sector performance under each president has been very similar. it just goes to show, i think, that there's bigger impacts on the market than who we elect in washington >> yeah. that's fascinating you always join us with those

kind of stats, paul. we appreciate it thank you very, very much. >> thank you >> talking about the surprising similarities between the two parties. coming up, materials are sitting out of today's huge rally, though. we'll break down exactly why when we come back. ♪

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welcome back some of the market's best performers over the past month are now the worst performers today. names like vulcan and martin marietta, while caterpillar is still the worst name so far. >> wall street pricing in the prospect of a divided government and a republican-controlled senate the working assumption is that this scenario would result in a smaller stimulus package and limited infrastructure funding this is important because going into the election, investors bid up construction and industrial companies on hopes that a blue wave would push forth a massive infrastructure bill to repair bridges and roads and highways caterpillar is seen as the biggest beneficiary. it rallied about 20% over the past three months and currently the biggest laggard on the dow right now. another trend we've seen during the pandemic is businesses

renting versus buying heavy equipment. the poster child of this trend, united rentals, lower by about 9% in today's trade. that said, strategists at jeffries say there would be bipartisan bill currently in the senate which would increase federal highway funding by 28% but that timeline still certainly am ushgy and a lot of details need to be clarified that's the makeup on the senate certainly very important when it comes to the topic of infrastructure kelly? >> yeah, there's infrastructure and just that general reflation kind of macro trade. how are the travel names doing today? >> travel will definitely be a big focus. we have expedia earnings after the bell, marriott reporting earnings on friday the conversation will certainly pivot to the consumer, how they're willing to spend their money ahead of the thanksgiving season as we get closer to that holiday.

>> and how those industries will fare under this new administration, whatever that is shaping up to look like. seema, thank you so much we appreciate it seema modi that does it for us on "the exchange" but stick around for "power lunch." a constitutional law expert will lay out the possibilities. atr thenortylemais f th right after this quick break. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes? if you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities? for nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in companies making a difference because we see value in doing good. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. talk to your financial advisor about investing responsibly wthe natural light is amazing. hardwood floors. there is a bit of a clogging problem. (clog dancing)

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good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. as you certainly know, there's no presidential winner yet as the vote counts continue in multiple states. more on that in a minute wall street does seem to be a big winner today they're now having their best day since june nasdaq, it's best day since april, up about 4% check out some of these big movers in big tech that would be facebook, google, amazon, apple. they are all surging as potential gridlock in washington boosts stocks. finally two other big election day winners, uber and lyft jumping double digits as california votes to allow the companies to keep drivers as contractors. not as full benefi