tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 5, 2020 9:00am-11:00am EST
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don't have a lot, where does the time go? we need more time. who is up for 4:00 a.m.? not me anyway, final look, big -- another big day, markets are solid this week. even after the election. see you tomorrow i think. maybe we're doing it again we'll see. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" coming up right now. good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures are solid agency the market continues with the best week in about seven months, best election week in decades we're watching covid levels, fed decision, jobless claims pretty busy morning of q3 earnings, a lot will pivot on arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, and georgia. >> yeah. look, i was going over gm's quarter, a really good quarter, going over bristol-myers quarter and i liked it, good things about wholelogic
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there say couple of people in some room in pennsylvania, i don't know who they are, i don't know if they're working yet, maybe not up yet, maybe working 9:00 to 5:00, i don't know who are going to determine what matters the most, i can put a price multiple on bristol-myers better than anybody in the world unless you tell me there is a big sweep or something that is going to happen. you know when you deal with a lot of the companies we're looking at, the price sharing multiple will be decided by the notch up or down by the presidential election. >> i think you don't think over the last two -- yesterday's trading session, potentially what we're going to see today, the market is already making a decision in terms of who it thinks the president is going to be and what the composition of senate is going to be. >> yes, it is. >> you're talking about workers in rooms as though they're make the decision, the decisions have been made, they're simply doing an envelope, taking a ballot out and putting it in a pile so it can be put in a scanner, a ballot postmarked prior to election day just to make it clear, jim. >> more important than you right now when i think about
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bristol-myers. >> yeah. yeah carl, on that note, back to you. >> yeah. two full days, guys, since the polls opened and the contest does remain unsettled as the vote counting continues. the race now appears to hinge on a shrinking number of states at this hour uncalled by nbc, pennsylvania, north carolina, georgia, arizona, and nevada, take a look at pennsylvania, a new batch of counts out of philly counties expected, essentially at any moment. in georgia, still too close to call the president held a commanding lead on election night that gap now stands at just over 18,000 votes in arizona, it is the president closing the gap, but former vice president biden still clings to 68,000 vote lead and nbc says it is still too close to call. in terms of the electoral college, here's where things stand, according to nbc, biden, 253, trump 214, remember, it takes 270 to win the white house and vice president biden did
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sound optimistic last night. >> now after a long night of counting, it is clear that we're winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency i'm not here to declare that we have won but i am here to report when the count is finished we believe we will be the winners. >> all right, jim, so we're going to wait on maricopa county and philly and atlanta, a lot of those absentee ballots still coming in, being counted but to what degree does the market take into account new challenges from the trump campaign the likes of which we're seeing as we speak >> i think people don't mind anything that involves a court there are -- there is an undercurrent, you go through manhattan, i did last night, where you just want to own louisiana pacific, there is so much plywood, they have other businesses that aren't doing as
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well and like at it and say, i don't want insurrection, i don't want craziness, i don't want military and these are in the minds of a lot of people. i'm sure there are other people saying, that's nuts. i think as long as it is just going to courts, the president complaining to a court, a judge saying that it is right or wrong, david, i got to tell you, i feel like that's democracy, sloppy democracy in action i'll take it versus the opposite. >> you don't want to make baseless claims based on nothing. one thing to say you want a recount like in wisconsin, which is expected when a vote is 20,000, i think what the biden margin of victory was there, another thing to make baseless claims about things and -- videos on twitter completely made up and all sorts of different things like that to your point, it may end up in the courts, but that isn't necessarily a great thing. >> no, but we have a judiciary that is not made up of a bunch of hacks
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they, for the most part, are want to follow the law i have found respect for the so far the few -- the few adjudications i've seen are, are you crazy, that's not a good case in other words, they're not going to prolong it. i don't see -- i think we're out of this -- i'm betting we're out of this tomorrow >> by tomorrow >> yeah, i do. >> yeah. we'll find out i mean, yeah, we'll see how much progress we get in the count today. so the market in your view, when the president said today to david's point, yesterday, we have claimed for electoral vote purposes the commonwealth of pennsylvania, market didn't even blanch >> i think the market is -- the market is looking at a couple of things it is looking at a government that will have even maybe have -- be less erratic, and but will get a stimulus plan, you have to get past the election. we need to get past this thing so bad, we're even accepting that it is -- that it is past
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in -- with quotation marks we're just not -- we feel there is closure and i know the president might want to do this and might want to not have it down be down to five votes or something some the commonwealth of pennsylvania, but i feel there is closure coming and that's part of the rally. >> right i get it and, again, back to the idea that investors seem to believe we're going to have divided government, we're going to shave a senate controlled by the republicans. by the way, yes, the president, we know his business career, we followed him closely for years, he ends up in the courts on pretty much everything that's kind of his go-to and so it is not unexpected. and many people have been anticipating it, which is why they have an army of lawyers on both sides ready to potentially fight this out if it comes it that. but, carl, if in fact we get a georgia account that goes to biden, if we get pennsylvania as many expect it may, as you start to see the heavier
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concentrations of democratic votes come in from the mailed in ballots, you know, it may be harder to make any sort of a case one would expect if biden is able to pad that potential lead well past 270 electoral votes. >> one thing that i -- i talk a lot of people in the last 48 hours about that is going on, a lot of big money managers, a lot of people who are vociferous on their views on the two candidates, and it is an interesting mix you have such hatred on both sides, and they produce nirvana for the stock market and i think that's really hard for people to get their heads around how could you have this vicious witch's brew, get together and produce unbelievable results and the answer is that -- because we hate the government we want nothing to do with the government this government sounds like it is going to be even more ineffectual, less mercurial, and they'll throw money at people because we a lot of people unemployed and it comes back to covid. so we're now just going to be fighting covid, with money, with
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a -- with a stimulus, with medicine and that's the next thing we look forward to people ought to be long because the government issed no going to be intrusive and want to be long because the stimulus is coming, and want to be long because we're going to solve covid >> i think it is a really excellent point, jim i wonder what you make of the market, a week ago, we were all talking about the market being long on a blue wave stimulus reflationary trade we pivoted away from that so hard, so fast. is it fair to say the market is willing to trade in less stimulus probably on a dollar value for a more stable tax and regulatory environment on the long-term? >> absolutely. absolutely look, everyone wants lower, if you want higher taxes. we talked about the notion of giving money, and that's different from demanding higher taxes for yourself there was an undercurrent, no one wants to pay more taxes, pay a lot in this country, rich pay more, arguably, but not as much as their fair share.
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what came down was that that -- the repudiation of what was supposed to happen last week, happened so quickly i can't believe it david, who is being paid to make these projections that are so wrong? can we bring them on >> in terms of the polling >> the blue wave. >> there is clearly an issue made - >> there were people >> recognizing the gop enough, somehow, or -- yeah, there is clearly an issue in the data science there. >> how about how many investors went the wrong way carl, these moves are because of positioning. these moves are people who -- are from people who say, oh, my, i'm so on the wrong side of eli lilly, i can't believe it. >> there is an animal spirit side you have a lot of hedge fund managers who as we pointed out through the years are very highly compensated, who are feeling very good right now because maybe they wanted a biden presidency, in fact i know quite a few who voted for biden, but were petrified of higher taxes, thought they were coming, we're not happy about it, and now wake up and say, look at
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this, be i get biden, potentially, but i don't have higher taxes i'm feeling great! i'm going to buy some stocks >> i'm going to buy some stocks. and then you have -- then you have real things happening a way from the side show or of politics, qualcomm reports last night. and qualcomm's quarter is the celebration of everything that we have been talking about that got obliterated by the election. 5g and anybody -- i was trying to call up the election results, i had akamai on and i had to wait like seven seconds no people find if you are going to streaming, they want it to be just like instant on tv. that's steve mollenkopf. we have him coming on? >> you won't be on the show at that point in time i will interview him we'll speak to him after what was a strong quarter and -- i'm waiting for you invite me on "mad" when you have the parade of ceos i interviewed through the years. when that invitation comes, let
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me know, and i'm happy to -- >> give me a chance here the qualcomm was amazing staph wi steve will be understated, as opposed to my show when he brings it. the biggest issue right now in tech is supply cannot be met there is just not enough supply. you can't meet -- the demand is too strong. >> these executives must love us fighting over them we can't wait to hear what steve has to say, jim. which is a comment about ig5g ad the buildout wireless. >> it is about iot, internet of things, it is about, you know, even automotive, they wanted the nxpi deal for that >> that was good. >> they're still moving into that to carl's point on verizon, let's not forget, we're still worried about that price war that may or may not be taking place among the big telecom providers, wireless companies,
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the three big ones which we'll keep an eye on qualcomm is the ben fisheeficiay across the board they do a lot of business in china too. a lot. >> korea automotive, good for them. >> yeah. >> automotive is coming back gm, i'm a believer, carl, i'm a believer >> oh, man, we got to get to the blowout at gm. what a story there, guys in the meantime, though, our eyes are peeled on so many of these developing states. georgia, too close to call, with the president holding a slight lead over biden. contessa brewer is in alma today. good morning, contessa >> reporter: hi, carl. these rural counties, the vote is all accounted for in bacon county, it was a clear win for trump in this county in those bigger metro areas, biden leads and outstanding absentee ballots are still being counted. i want to show you a live shot
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in fulton conte. you see the workers processing the ballots. this is home to atlanta and the election board announced this morning, just before 6:00 a.m., that it had 7500 more ballots to count. so likely at this point we're getting close. and the margins are razor thin let's show you fulton county georgia and how close the margins are as they -- well, it is not close in this particular county biden clearly leading with more than 72% of the vote that's been counted. and another metropolitan county, chatham county, home to savannah, where that vote is coming in. workers are slogging through the absentee ballots and in chatham county, biden holding the lead 57 -- almost 58% to trump's 41% here's the thing the trump campaign and georgia republicans have filed a lawsuit claiming in chatham county they're counting ballots that were received after georgia's deadline a poll observer claims he saw an election worker inappropriately
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processing ballots now, the elections supervisor was quoted in local media saying the observer doesn't know what he's talking about, that every ballot is tracked when it comes in and as it is processed. 16 electoral votes at stake. trump won these in 2016 by more than 6%. the gap very, very stark among blacks and hispanics overwhelmingly voted for clinton. the majority of white people in the state voted for trump. clearly this republican advantage has slipped among concerns about racial justice, the economy, and coronavirus we wait on fulton county, we expect those results at any point this morning carl >> contessa, watching that state so closely, along with that small handful of others. we'll come back to you later contessa brewer in alma, georgia. we'll get to the earnings picture. gm, regeneron, we'll touch on qualcomm again plenty of news there
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switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, get $300 off when you buy the samsung galaxy note20 ultra 5g. learn more at your local xfinity store today. what we need to do is flip the senate over to being pro cannabis at some point in time and as you continue to win states, especially like some of the states yesterday, which are traditionally conservative
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states, they ultimately bring their senator along with them. >> david klein of canopy we talked about individual states the narrative builds on a federal, some type of federal decriminalization or legalization >> it is incredible, wherever it is on the ballot, it wins. the conservative states vote for it and liberal votes for it. and it doesn't seem to matter to mitch mcconnell who is really bottled it up. i think that this is an industry that if you listen to the -- even the most conservative people, could be a $70 billion industry, it has so many different uses, but it is -- this election did not move the ball unless we immediately get some statement from biden saying, look, we need to raise money really fast, i want to make a deal with mitch, mitch mcconnell, the people in the industry recognize that their stocks got hammered. they got the green light from a
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couple of states, a couple of states is not what is needed. >> do you get any sense from those in the industry that the possibility of nationalization, legalized nationally is likely >> no. >> you don't. >> even though as you say, when it is put on the ballot in state, whether it is more conservative state or more liberal state, it typically passes so one would think that the federal legislators for those said states would see that, and maybe want to reflect that in the way they feel about it trump was not in favor of it, but i'm not sure where biden stands. >> i think that we heard from harris that -- that things should go much better. that drove all those stocks up she made one comment that said, listen, cannabis will be fine. >> she's a californian too >> if it is state by state -- think about the new jersey situation. canopy will move with all sorts of drinks, edibles that taste good for once. >> got t.
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>> edibles, still got to watch the dosage. >> martha stewart edible er that they're coming in with everything you need. there is a weird image of pennsylvaniaians, where they're still voting, and the other side and the gw bridge are all these people and they want cannabis beer which tastes great -- >> sure. cannabis beer. >> that's what we're looking at. you have to believe it will happen, carl, that so many people come to new jersey from those states that the feds will recognize we got a problem here. >> jim, my question is, do you think the large package goods companies, the beverage companies, who have been cautious so far, do you think they're behind the eight ball at this point or not? >> no. i think they still have time look, constellation put a lot of money in canopy. if they want to buy any of the companies, good brand names, like kronos is off today that's lord jones. i know your kids probably have a lot of lord jones in their dorm.
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but that's a brand name. >> got it. no idea. >> like old spice. lord jones is like old spice, okay >> that's okay >> i'm saying it is up for grabs because i just mentioned the most popular brand name and, you know, like what is that? they dash? right? >> right >> you know what i mean? >> lord jones. what is lord jones >> it is a version of cream of wheat. >> a version of cream of white. >> it is a popular gummy brand name. >> thank you thank you. just tell me what it is. >> they have gummies that taste like chuckles. remember chuckles? >> we'll get david some at some point. >> vaguely. >> guys, we'll take a break. still looking for updates as the market inches hopefully closer to some kind of closure as jim was referencing earlier today. futures are good we're ba aer bakckft are what do you look for when you trade?
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i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. mhm, yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better,
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welcome back, a little less than three minutes before we get started with the trading on this thursday i pay attention during the mad dash and that's why i don't think you've ever done lendy. >> i haven't i had them on "mad money." there have been some mergers that have been allowed by governments that i think you and i would say are, let's say, ill advised. it was able to merge with linde
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and now it is the world's largest industrial gas company and there not a lot of competition anymore. sure enough, linde reported a blowout number last night. one of the best blowouts of the year, and the reason i like it, yesterday, when i was working with carl, on -- what was it -- one of the election nights we had and carl turned to me and said hydrogen power. linde is behind hydrogen power they're the ones who are going to get -- i like plug power, that's great, great spec. >> how are they behind it? >> they decided that green hydrogen is the future >> okay. >> and they're going to make it everywhere, providing it in california, in china, they're doing it, green hydrogen is what is -- doable fuel. now, elon musk thinks it is a fuel for fools he doesn't like it he likes lithium batteries this uses our substantial natural gas hoard in this
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country, takes it, takes the green part, no pollution, it is the solution behind so many different companies that -- >> nicola's business plan, hydrogen stations, would linde be involved in something like that >> they're very involved they want -- this is linde's mission. this guy steve ankle, i had him on, he's an industrial gas guy he recognizes that hydrogen in china, david, that's how they're going to handle the buses. buses will be driven by clean hydrogen fuel. watch this term. keep following it. linde is behind it, $125 billion company that nobody talks about, and they can change carbon neutral for a lot of industrial companies. amazon needs them very badly for forklifts, but they do long haul trucking. and that's the next big thing. and linde is the way -- safe way to play it, good yield, good balance sheet, mark my words,
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linde is going to be our savior when it comes to the hydrogen power situation. >> all right i'll mark those words. >> many companies have littered that failed. linde will succeed. >> wow succeed. there is the opening bell. and another strong open as we have seen the last couple of days jim, before we lose our chance, i did want to ask you about expectations for powell today. they aren't -- they aren't great by magnitude, given other relative other fed days, but if stimulus is less than it would have been under a blue wave, does the fed have to carry more water? >> i think if the fed has to do more pleading, even in -- such a good -- i think he knows that this cold weather is bringing an evil wave of covid and i think if you go to different city streets, i've had in last few weeks, as if gets colder, there is less economic
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activity and i think that all you have to have is your eyes open, walk down fifth avenue, 9:00 to 10:00, not get hit by a car. in front of trump towetower, you can't walk >> i think he's -- for what it is, that there is this group of people who are not going to -- we're a service economy. and a huge chuvg nk of our serv is hospitality >> it is worth going over the numbers. covid is taking a back seat to us watching the election returns. but we're reaccelerating the u.s., 100,000 cases, i believe, our average, our five-day average now in the u.s. is 95,000. almost 96,000 cases a day. hospitalizations are at a new high, only in the midwest, thankfully but not -- that's not great. and worldwide we're
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reaccelerating france, spain, uk, italy, germany and russia are all reaccelerating, the u.s. far above any of them in terms of actual numbers, 109,000, france next at 41,000 new cases yesterday. but, jim, to your point, that's not necessarily -- well, not a good thing, period. >> and people are scared scared to go out there is nothing -- you have a service economy based on people going to places and doing things, this is a part of the economy that jay powell really knows and knows those are small businesses and they're going to get hurt and there was no deal between secretary mnuchin and speaker pelosi and you would think just if they had a heart they could get together and find something, just to target the people who have to be thrown out of work, and come december, it is too cold. that whole jerry-rigged thing that a lot of us did to have outdoor dining, that's great it is over >> yeah.
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yeah >> once we get into the 40s, speaking of cold weather, jim, reuters has a piece out this morning, looking at hospitalizations, north dakota, wonder would you guys guess the number of icu beds available in the state of north dakota, six so very, very treacherous. you do not want to get in a serious accident of any kind because at least in the dakotas icu capacity is strained >> well, you know, carl, i think what is going to happen, those of us who follow fantasy football, or regular football, know that there is just so many players testing positive now it is incredible to -- just now the texans closed their facility obviously the niners have a lot of problems. the covid list is growing and i'm not saying they're ignoring it at all, coral but if you have a weekend closed, shut down because of covid and the nfl, i think what people realize, we're up against a much more powerful opponent than we ever thought
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>> jim, axios has a good piece out today about mcconnell. arguing that if he keeps the majority he will force biden to keep his cabinet choices centrist, looking at names like brainard at treasury, the response from the left today is that the president did a lot with acting secretaries. but i wonder if that, again, is constructive for the market. >> very. very all that says, look, you don't have to check your -- can you imagine not having to check your tweet file in the morning to see how your stocks are going to do? i get -- president tweets like crazy, i'm up all night. he does too. you just never know. you never know what is going to happen and what you -- you replace that with is so boring, it is going to -- washington will be so boring, just, i mean, it is going to be -- i don't know, the most exciting thing will happen is they come up with a name for the washington team. they are going to be so not a part of our existence. it is joyous
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we'll look at earnings per share, we'll look at how our companies are doing, we won't are to worry if they straddle the universe and not be called by washington and be made fun of, that's over. no more show trials. it is -- i said this to someone in government this is not that happy, it is nirvana for the stock market >> when they will be i think the days of individual company stocks reacting to presidential tweets in this case, of course, trump tweets, was over fairly early. but to your point, when we would get things on china, and the trade -- >> i'm glad it was huawei. >> do you ever talk to any companies in the cell phone industry industry, he said he had it with huawei >> very important customer. >> he just woke up and decided, huawei, how about the other guys the other guys are okay. i keep calling it mercurial. we'll lose the mercurial aspect. i'm tougher on china than the
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preside president. i don't know why he singled out huawei the rest of the companies were able to use as many u.s. spoe components it is like he said i'm letting the other chinese companies catch up to huawei you know that was his plan. >> yes >> he hobbled w ed huawei so th other companies would catch up. >> this administration has been focused on a nationwide 5g strategy, viewing it as integral to our national defense. qualcomm's ability to stay an independent company when broadcom was prevented from moving forward with a so-called hostile bid for them it figured into a lot of things not to mention the fcc, not to mention dish and their opportunity to potentially present a nationwide wireless 5g network. it is very important and it has been taken very important. your former partner larry kudlow is very involved in this process too. >> larry, i think he's going to be vindicated on some of the things he's thinking about,
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about employment. >> yeah. >> it is not bad just that -- think about danny myer, the great restaurateur in new york carl, danny myer represents the growth industries in our country. just unbelievable food, great time, really just magical after a hard day's work, that's what we do. we're great at that. i was with scott -- >> why do you keep mentioning his name on television what is wrong with you >> he wantsmore clients. >> he has plenty of clients, let's move on. >> i'm saying i looked -- i asked that, how is the air, how is the ventilation this is a good spot for ventilation. it is the only restaurant i'll go to. >> that's it >> advantage of being the best restaurant in maybe in the country. >> there is a table that david has, carl. >> will you stop it, that's completely false oh, my gosh. you know what, carl -- carl,
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let's move on to earnings this morning. we haven't gotten to quite a few of them. >> okay. >> i'll rescue you really quick. let's look at microsoft really quick, jim outperform on cloud. this will take you back to october 15th >> i was on that conference call and they talk about microsoft after and we were like this is best, clapping i send a note to them, fantastic quarter and i wake up and the stock is down 8. down 8 the forecast, the forecast was exactly what we expected it to be last week was some sort of nuclear bomb against these stocks now everyone is -- this is the same exact call and now we're reacting positively to it? there was a shroud of gloom last week that just drove every -- microsoft was perfect. the forecast was perfect they were shocked. they thought the stock would be up big. >> you pointed it out, the multiples started to creep up there. >> what are you going to get in
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treasuries >> well deserved that comes back to the big -- >> these are store holds of value. >> yields where they are, you're willing to take up for the stocks >> store holder value. >> right >> you agree with that bitcoin, store holder of value. >> market agrees with it up. 41%. a couple of other things to get to, bob, let's start there and get to something interesting as well involving bristol-myers alibaba reported numbers, not being overly well received by the market, conference call this morning, some concern about iphone, you know that's some -- important there, in terms of their tab and some delays and that may have contributed to it. they did have a 30% increase year over year in revenues and annual active customers on the china retail marketplace was 757 million. that was an increase of 15 million from the 12-month period but we also have seen a weakness in the stock in part because of the extraordinary news we got earlier in this week, that the ant financial ipo has been
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shelved, that the shanghai stock told them no, the regulators are looking at ant's business, why is that important? they own 33% of ant financial. and so that has weighed on the shares this is earnings related we'll keep a closer eye on it and give you more as we get it jim, i wanted to come back to another stock that is getting absolutely crushed this morning. it is a so-called contingent or cbr, a contingent value right. it was issued in conjunction with bristol-myers, purchase of celgene and it involved the company reaching certain end targets for key drugs. one of them being a drug called lisacel which treats b cell lymphomas, appears to be very strong potential trials. but they have been waiting for the fda to actually inspect their manufacturing facilities and they have a so-called date
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of november 15th this is a key part of this, as part of the cbr being money good, you have had to get to this november 15th date, we all know november 15th is very close. let me read to you from the conference call. lisacel. both our plants in washington and well as one need to be inspectioned they have been able to inspect our plants in washington but have not scheduled any inspection of the second plant and we're doing what we can to ensure with the covid pandemic and travel restrictions, we have to obviously act on the desires to where they go and when they go what does that mean? it means they're not getting to inspection the plants because of covid restrictions and the inability to travel to certain extent and that is putting it at risk have we shown the stock? down 77% i think we have. okay >> the drugs are really important. people hoped that -- >> down 80% new. it doesn't mean the drug itself won't be a success, what it does mean is bristol-myers won't be
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on the hook for paying off the cbr. >> they had a good quarter you look at it and say good quarter, why is it down? the stock just jumped five bucks. >> that's bristol-myers stock. >> cbr is down huge. >> down 80%. do we have it, guys? i don't know if we showed it i thought we had it in the system. >> that might be a good spec. >> they did. okay >> i warn people thatit is not li like bristol-myers had a bad quarter. the stock has, like many drug stocks, after yesterday, had a move, like eli lilly, which people didn't like the quarter, and they had a move that made up all of the decline yesterday's actions in healthcare were insane and i never see anything like it, most of the companies had nothing happen nothing happened to them at all. >> yeah. >> regeneron -- >> there is a look at the contingent value, based on the success of the drug, meeting certain milestones by certain dates in november 15th, you
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can't -- >> they were exploding so -- >> what banker created that. it wasn't dr. -- >> cbrs have been around for a long time. 20, 25 years ago it was a way of giving a potential benefit to shareholders saying, hey, listen, if we hit these -- if we hit these targets by this certain date, you're going to have, you know, get another five bucks a share, whatever the number was >> well -- >> not anymore. >> stick with the common >> carl? >> to your point, guys, unh is the only negative dow stocks all sectors green. vix 27 claims on the fed are the other big stories today. to rick santelli >> yes, you know, we had some important data today initial continuing claims, we can debate how much good news it really is. but it is still the best level since march. now, another data point we had today, we didn't cover as deeply as i would like to, very quickly, productivity, third quarter, preliminary, 4.9. 4.9 was a stand alone without last month's 10.6, let's go to
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the charts, it would be the best productivity level since the third quarter of 2009. that means 10.6 on its own was the best quarter since 1971. so as you can see on this chart, we have the two best productivity quarters going back to 2009. i think that's something to pay attention to what we learned here is that the way we do things differently during the pandemic has some productivity pluses. maybe we can hang on to those is the wider economy gets postcovid and opens up in its entirety two day of 10s, we had 23 basis point range, 94 to 71. open the chart up and one month chart of 10s, we lost some of that zing. and when you consider that i would rather have strong equities, higher interest rates and strong dollar, you can see that the move that we are doing really is more politically motivated as the landscape changes from what the landscape was thought to be before the vote, the senate, all the numbers that we currently have if you look at what is going on
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with foreign exchange, the dollar index is definitely lost its vim and vigor. look at 830 start, you see we're close, close to closing 3 month lows and here is one that isn't aiding, only a small part of the dollar index, the dollar versus the chinese yuan right now, it would be the worst close since june of 2018 carl, jim, david, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. we'll take a break here. s&p, say hello to 3500 once again first time since october 19th we wait for more updates from arizona, nevada, pennsylvania, and georgia. don't go away. before money, people traded goods.
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scott? >> reporter: if it feels like we have been stuck at that 95% figure for a while, or the president's lead of about 76,000 votes or 1.5%, well, it is because we are stuck there, and we likely will be for some time to come as you can see so if that is still the case, if the presidency has not been decided elsewhere by next week at this time, the 15 electoral votes here become huge and this is the big variable, 116,200 absentee ballots that are still outstanding have not been returned that number is going to come down a bit as the days go on and as more of those ballots are returned, but they will not be counted for the most part until next week at this time >> regardless of vote differentials, we never stop counting until all eligible votes are counted and added to
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the final certified and audited results. >> reporter: so where do those absentee ballots come from well, they are are in the state's biggest counties, including wake county, where i am, that's joe biden country as you can see. and mecklenburg county, that's charlotte. each county election board counts them up those meetings are set and will not go to the state until a week from now in north carolina, they are accepting mail-in ballots that arrive as late as next thursday the 12th as long as they are
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158, the all-time high is ludicrous. they were so busy selling growth, saying listen, we can't make enough growth how many companies can say that. the answer is half a dozen swks, liam griffin, best in show >> not going into this new chapter at all remember people hated apple, they pronounced it dead a year ago. apple is up 10 since that sunshine gave us that bit of
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hope he's been stubborn like the president said about fauci. nice guy before he vis rates him. no due respect says he's a nice guy but he got it all wrong only spent his whole life trying to do the right thing. i like apple >> you'll have a bunch to kick around >> the company's largest bullet maker. i like to hunt, we'll not crucify him. that was one of your buddies that took over poppa john and turned it around >> yes, sir. i'm sorry to bother you.
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good thursday morning. welcome to "sqwawk on the street." a three-week high as the market continues to try to sniff out some sense of closure on election counts still being counted. watching earnings, kayla as regards to the earnings, where do things stand? >> vote counting continues and the trump campaign files suit to stop the count in three states where he is ahead. in the race to the white house, here is what we know at this
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hour biden has 253 of those and president trump with 214 awaiting results from five critical swing states that nbc news calls too close to call pennsylvania, georgia, north carolina, georgia and nevada expanding the gap in georgia is between 18,000 votes fulton county officials provided updates throughout the night but still just 96% of the vote is in in arizona, president trump closed the gap with biden holding to a 68,000 vote lead. we are waiting on more ballots from one county. in pennsylvania, still too close to call. continuing to narrow as mail-in
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ballots are continued to be counted and could be counted until friday we are expecting updates to come in the next couple of hours. we are expecting 10:30 a.m., georgia secretary of state and updates in nevada and pennsylvania another update at 1:00 and at 9:00 p.m. eastern time, maracopa county wanted to post more election results as expected, the vote counting taking days. certainly, the trump campaign trying to rallywhat it calls a deployment. >> a lot to take to this hour joining us this morning, chief strategist good morning, ladies, good to
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see you. >> thinking, it is a rare instance in which the stock market is being more assuming than the decision desks. as it pertains to the challenges they put out there >> i do think there is risk if this remains contended for a period of time, i do think a lot of strength we are seeing which clearly has ties to the perception is calculating the ultimate results to the election and provide the government to major policy changes especially on the tax front a lot of it is just the aftermath of a corrected phase that ended last week with the worst week since
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march and since june with the pull backs you getover sold and kick the market back and in some cases where this is technical. >> interesting, looking at the charts early september, mid-october now getting back to the area where it is a bit of resist tense. if it is a dream of a low tax, low regulatory environment. >> i would agree the likelihood of a mixed government which means more regulatory action but very little in the way of the legislative change i think people are still focused on if
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we'll have a fiscal stimulus that will be critical important for market sentiment what we are seeing in terms of growth stocks that are outperforming. the rally had a brief rally. a longer time because ultimately, the election will be resolved looking at the underlying fundamentals in the face of the covid-19 pandemic. >> let me come to you on the pandemic it is not getting any better it is getting worse. 109,000 cases in the u.s., 49,000 in france the prospect we may not get as much aid if biden is in the presidency and republicans remain in the control. what is the risk of slow down as
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the pandemic rages >> i'm not sure the market has reflected that activity. that would likely be absence any mandated shut downs. i think human behavior kicks in with when there is the fear factor on the part of both sides, let's assume we end up with a divided government on both sides that we saw in play with the current relief package was being negotiated or when the election is over, does that soften. i'm in the sure i know the answer to that i think we are getting something, it is a question of that. >> to weeks where you could be awaiting the final result. december 14 the date when states
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have to pledge those results there could be a senate runoff campaigns are wringing their hands and awaiting, any potential administration would not have access to the keys to the castle, they could not access federal agencies, that could hamper the business of government in the coming weeks how do you think the market would act to that process even today as it believes it were a certainout come of a divided government >> i think that protracted negative would be overall. people seem to be breathing a sigh of relief that a worst case scenario didn't play out there was some concern of massive unrest
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hopefully that won't occur i think as long as we have an orderly transition of government, people will be looking to the overall government and drivers we saw some of those results. costco up 40% on seam-store sales. reporting very strong results in those companies as well. the economy will come back we need to get through the crisis in an orderly manner and put the capital to work. >> one last question to you. tweeting some of the russell names. getting back to trading
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relatively in line with the rest of the basket. is that a reflection of potentially a biden white house having better relations with china. a reflection of the management of new wave of covid cases or a combination? >> i think it is a combination of the two particularly because china seems to have gotten through the worst of the pandemic there is a bit more of an economic recovery there. i do think whether we have a biden presidency or a trump presidency, managing the trade relationship with china and moving through the differences will be a priority for either administration >> our thanks for you pointing that out let's look at shares of
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which signals some sense of confidence about your bottom line and cash reserves going forward. >> thank you we have fought through the tend ans issues since the pandemic started, we've been able to hire. we see our way forward in business resit rating our cash flow to be $3 billion for that cash flow. >> we are obviously very focused this week on the out come. one would think about the potential democratic administration as defense
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spending and reemerging and the need to return production and produringment to american manufacturing. what do you say is the out look there and how could that benefit you? >> two parts to that, with the department of defense, typically by what is happening in the rest of the world that means we continue to be bipartisan we've worked with all the administration over several terms. we are frankly building ships. we don't see that as being a huge driver. bring innovation to our supply chains is critical almost 100% domestic we sit in this place where we can sit in the place of the economic support coming through the pandemic it is a pretty unique place for
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our industry to be there >> you have a $45 billion back log. how many quarters does that get you through? >> how many administrations would that span? >> our longest contract goes out to 2032. about 85% of the work over the next five years is under contract about 22% of that back log is already funded it is a great foundation to build off of going forward as we support our customers. all of our national security customer particularly our navy customer the navy operateliing tempo is high as it has been. we are right there if there is a navy ship, you'll see us with them >> you mention you hired 3,000 people since the pandemic
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started. like many manufactures, i'm sure it has taken a toll on your work force. how are you grappling with that? is it getting worse or better? >> actually, the first couple of months were pretty tough our focus was to maintain that force for the long term and not the near term. we've come out of that now in our business, we've had a couple of thousand cases across the enterprise at a lower rate than we saw earlier this summer. feeling confident the teams have a protocol in place to protect the workforce and make our job sites the safest place for employees to be. >> best of health to you today
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ceo of unting ton engels >> thank you for having me the etf look at the down jones index. ticker fdn extending gains to the tune of 47% since the year began the biggest holding is amazon. sec filing showing its founder and jeff bezos sold more than 3 billion shares don't worry about him. he still owns 3 billion shares worth $170 billion stay with us ♪ ♪
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survey there he is, the man with the answers, steve >> one in the same judged by the results of the latest data which we conducted yesterday and confirmed trading that the market is just fine with not knowing the results of the market and potential out come of the market and senate. 64% of the correspondents include the strategist and managers say there is only a small risk uncertainty. why is that, 55% believe there will be a result next week and 88% by the end of the month. hope we don't have to wait that long writing, while the presidential race may be more interesting if the republicans can hold on to the senate, that will likely be the election that most investors appreciate the most. one of the things to worry about
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when it comes to the economy is the potential lack of stimulus 68% say the longer situation in the absence of a relief package. writing with a likely gridlocked congress, the focus will shift to the fed they'll have to do the heavy lifting. i'd expect more qe, ie higher than $120 billion a month probably from december the chief economist chimes in, the key is covid policy, not monetary policy. for the fed outlook, no change in rates today and zero rates for cash through 2021. that provides an underpinning not much as theout look. something like 36% and joe biden winning 97% are forecasting now
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a republican congress. >> steve, certainly what the markets have been counting on. thank you, five states still not called by nbc, pennsylvania is one of them. live in pittsburgh today >> coming down to these mail-in ballots. in pittsburgh, one of the biden campaign has been watching because we saw the in-person turn out for president trump on election night, he was leading. as we've seen these mail-in ballots come in, that has dwindled they had about 100,000 ballots
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to go. they carried thousands of ballots. when i left last night where they were processing they had about 100,000 or so to go the last update we got was 16 hours. they processed the same amount of ballots in the same time. we'll be waiting and watching for philadelphia the secretary of state last night said she anticipates to see an overwhelming majority of ballots come in in pennsylvania. the governor here and senator casey speculating that this could mean pennsylvania will be in a place to call but we have to remain patient. the trump campaign files lawsuits in philadelphia asking for more transparency. the secretary of state says she does not anticipate any of this
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vote count to be halted. we'll keep watching in pennsylvania as tension keeps growing. >> thank you a little over a year ago good to see you, we'll keep you updated as we get more expecting updates from pennsylvania momentarily i want to give you a snap shot of what the schedule is for the rest of the day and when we expect results to come in from various states 10:30 eastern, we are expecting an update from georgia secretary of state last night, they said about 122,000 ballots left to count. the lead for president trump shrinking to just over 18,000. >> and 12:00 eastern, nevada elections to update vote count for several days, they've been corralling pro bono lawyers in a deployment to philadelphia,
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nevada and arizona and 12:00, we are expecting the nevada election bureau to update their count there. they had paused kouning and will resume it around that time, a little after 12:00 eastern, the pennsylvania governor and secretary of state will provide an update there. we told you earlier because of mail-in ballots and counting that could go through friday, it could be later there clark county in nevada including las vegas, 1:00 p.m. eastern is when we expect an up date there. 9:00 p.m. eastern, the critical maricopa county is expecting an update thereof further dribble of votes there could be later in the day when we start to get these numbers. the margins are razor thing, the trump campaign wants to make sure ballots are counted accurately and the reason why they are deploying all of these
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legal resources and we'll see whether some of these chips fall in their favor >> yes accurate vote count is something everybody can agree on for sure. watching those roll outs russell has gone positive for the year dow needs about 100 points to do the same we are about 3,500 for the first time since october 17th. see yourself. welcome back to the mirror. and know you're not alone because this. come on
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votes be counted correctly in portland, oregon and many other cities, count the vote rallies calling for a free election free of political interference portland police declared a riot and the national guard called into the city. some stores suffered damages it is quiet on the streets of london as britain begins its second lockdown. the picture very different last night. bars and restaurants looking for one last night out before new restrictions took affect >> here at home, houston texans closed their training facility after another player tested positive for covid still scheduled to play jacksonville on sunday we'll keep you up to date on that one it is changing rapidly carl, back to you. >> thank you a good place to start with our
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next guest jason has been rumored to have a position in a potential biden white house should biden win good morning did i get that last line right is. >> people can do whatever rumors they want but i have a job here at harvard next year >> let's talk about what the market is betting on broadly that is divided government limited tax policy movement. is it your sense that a biden administration is willing to ablidge? >> i thipresident-elect biden wl be good at working with congress that is something he's always been very good at. i hope the stimulus happens and doesn't have to wait to be signed by him.
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infrastructure, in a matter what happens in the senate, he'd be able to work on. he cares about things making sure workers have deent pay and carbon emissions he'll do what he can as well >> jason, one thing that people who have supported the former vice president have said in talking about believes is we know joe look at his voting record. he has tended to move where the party moves. he told an aid of bernie sanders, i want to be the most progressive president den since fdr. calling himself a transition president. i wonder what an actually economic agenda would look like. >> i think he outlined a set of ambitious plans in his campaign. around infrastructure, around
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clean energy, around child care, around health care he will try to figure out how to do as much as that as possible none of that is some undermining of markets i think it is a continuation of the policies you saw in the obama administration i think the economy did perfectly fine in those years. in he got everything he wanted done, the economy would be perfectly fine he knows how to work together with others and figures out what can be done and not just sit on the side and grandstand and just make speeches. >> something president obama said even with the limitations on what a democratic white house would be able to do based on the commission of congress
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how cot tied do you think that is in the minds of biden and his advisors if you look at the plans proposed the next two years, on net, they don't raise taxes. they were gross tax cuts, those cancel out when you add in another $1 tril tron or more stimulus. that's why every estimate i've seen from investment banks and others show his agenda would be positive for economic growth even if he did those changes on the tax side which are obviously more difficult today than you might have thought two days ago. >> sure. given the changing forecast, the political forecast, does powell go out on a limb and respond to any of this? i'm sure he's bound to be asked
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about this >> powell is an extremely politically skilled fed chair. he's great in many ways and that's one of them i'm sure he'll have a very artful answer to it. for him, it is important what type of fiscal policy emerges. that's what he needs to respond to for him, the most important thing to be called for is more fiscal stimulus. i don't think he wants to wait for the next president for that to happen. he's made that clear over and over again >> certainly he's worked hard at building relationships on the hill jason, we'll see what happens. it will be a heck of a day we'll see you again. >> great to see you. just over an hour into trading in the u.s., we want to take a look at where markets are moving bob could be on pace for the
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second presidential election in a row where the dow would have its best reaction in decades >> quite a freight train i'll show you the s&p 500, we are approaching new highs. about 1.5% from old historic highs. 3,580s what the record high. we are not far from getting there. even broader not just tech. health care strong, bank stocks strong you are getting the declining stocks here. why the rally? the most important thing in the last couple of days, has been no more tax hikes corporate, capital gains off the table. stimulus, mcconal saying we may get this sooner than later bank of england has implied
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that the vaccine data, all of this is positive not just for growth, sick calls tech and growth with a bunch of new highs in tech today. great earnings from p qualcomm that is good news. new highs with chip names. you saw a great earnings report. growth keeps getting the interest hire. with stimulus coming, vaccine data coming. we've got value players coming out. 3 m up today, visa doing well. very, very broad participation in the rally because you've got a number of factors helping out. the stimulus, central banks talking more can't beat that. there is that s&p stap guys, 1.5% away. we are 50, 60 points away.
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names. mining in gold and the boost with silver and gold prices today. we round out top performers. air products and chemicals keep an eye on all of those materials. more "sqwawk on the street" coming after this break. keep it right here hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like... like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that?
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shares of qualcomm as we've showed you continue to be quite strong after the company reported fourm quarter sales and earnings ahead of expectations joining us now in a cnbc exclusive is qualcomm ceo and as well, we are joined by jon fort who cover the company closely. it was a good quarter. a strong quarter guidance is also quite strong. >> you look at and model out each of the unities. the smartphones increase in
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2021 what gives you the confidence in that forecast? >> that's just the 5g portion. handsets grow by 150% year over year if you look this year and i think we talked about this a bit earlier in the year, the real question is how would the market react to the covid-19 pandemic a couple of quarters ago, a lot of concern about how different industries would react what has happened in the handset industry is that a lot have come back we've had a good reach the quarter. the handset market was stronger. we thought it would be down about 15%. ended up being above 5% now. we used that as an assumption moving forward in our forecast overall. our visibility into the way the market is performing even in this pandemic environment has
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increased over the last several quarters >> a great deal of attention when apple launched its 5g phones also plenty of reviewers that pointed out, hey, if you want to get that functionality, you've got to be basically standing in front of the tower it will be a while until you get all of those things promised does that put the breaks on sort of a wider scale adoption? >> not at all. if you look at a couple of things that i think are notable. the 4g roll out versus the 5g roll out the 5g roll out is actually faster you look at the number of networks launching, if you look at the degree to which the new technology is existing in the portfolio of handset manufacturers and how deep they
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go in terms of price tiers the other thing is that the handset market has already made the switch, even before you start to see the deployment. when you look at it with the eyes of seeing the transition, we are quite pleased with how the 5g roll out is going >> with the call, automotive and iot is strong. you and i have talked a lot about the use and enterprise of what 5g will mean. or automotive. without nxp, they thought it would be hobbled what are you seeing there and why are you confident that will continue to perform quite well >> the auto market had a real big shock to the system kind of midyear. for us, we finished year over
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year flat. people have told you, you would end up with the business that grew back to flat. that's what you've seen. i would argue our business is perhaps a little bit more insulated from the broad auto dynamics, primarily because we are in the new technology that connects the car to the internet the new digital cockpits you see. we are getting those winds in the technology as well we look at the business as a lot of visibility. throughout the fiscal year, we decrease that design back log to $6 billion to $8 billion that will be high visibility for us good stable business good market dynamics but leverages the same technology. very good business for us.
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>> very good morning it is jon. i want to go back to handsets. specifically 5g and the mix you are seeing the bounce back in the overall handset market as people adjust to covid i don't know if we can say recover that customers are making the same choices in terms of the level of hand set that they were getting prepandemic? are they trading down? or are they actually trading up in terms of capability >> well, i think two trends happening at the same time first, first of all, 5-g is heading down if price tier much more rapidly than you would t traditionally see in the early stages of a technology transition if you compare it to 4-g, for example, the tiers absorbing 5-g are faster than you would have seen .2, y the second point, you get to see the richer phones being purchased at the higher tiers.
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you see that primarily in the developed world and in china and so, for example, in the new apple devices, they all have 5-g. and i think people are willing to pay up for more technology. you see that in our business in terms of how much content we are getting on new phones. even though the unit numbers are not growing as much as the revenue, it's still very, very profitable and very good opportunity for us because people are taking more technology and supply. >> and that's where i want to go next is the rf front end which you're now breaking out in your results in the qct revenue streams. you're getting more dollar share of hand set because of this growing rf front end business. how durable do you expect that to be? can you give color on the types of phones that you're getting into that you weren't in before? >> well, i think it's a big market if you look at the rf market, the content of rf in phones, it's a very attractive market.
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this is a, you know, over $10 billion opportunity for people in it. we're still early in it. we have grown dramatically this year i think the number that we reported on just this last quarter was $852 million by the way, we thought that was going to be $750 of it's been very positive but we're still early days many that same content growth is something we can access in the automobile space or in the iot space. so big market. we're early days we're happy to be building scale. but we think it's a durable opportunity. >> i can't help but notice with this surge that we're seeing this morning and, yeah, it's just one day, but it's a big day after earnings, you're up above $140, $145, that's twice the price that broadcom wanted to take you out three years ago give me a sense of the journey
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from then to now there were layoffs and a lot of doubts about the viability of qualcomm that was nxp which david mentioned, you didn't manage to get. what position are you in now strategically? leadership wise? are you stronger >> this is hard to believe, but essentially we are where we thought we were going to be. and the big markets, the big technology transitions, these are things you have to bet on very early in fact, we have been making the bets even before the time period that you were referencing. so we had always thought that we had this opportunity ahead of us we just had to get to it and so we were believers in it for sure you know, to the degree where we were willing to bet on ourselves. a the lot of people ask us, you know, about the nxp acquisition not being able to get it it would have been a great acquisition. but what we did instead is use the cash that we would have used to purchase that company and we
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bet on ourselves it worked out very, very well. so it's, you know, we really don't have any regrets as to the path that we traveled. we have a lot of opportunity ahead with the same trajectory and, you know, we view that as the rearview mirror and excited about where we're headed >> steve, i mean, you had gray hair before taking this job. but as jon pointed out, there is no series of challenges you face during the course of why you are tomb as ceo whether it has been a hostile from broadcom or the failure to get the nxp deal done or the fight with apple or dealing with the korean government or our own government as well. you recently won another victory it seems like it's completely over and done with now, the ftc challenge to your business model. is it all free and clear are you kind of done in terms of all these major things that were lined up that you've been dealing with these last, i don't know, five to seven years? >> you know, i always tell people that we're probably in as safe waters than we have been in a long time. but we don't really travel in
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safe waters. look at the technology that we work on. it's important to a lot of businesses and a lot of companies that have serious companies. the stakes are very large. but it feels to me like we were in about as stable a position as we could have hoped for and we're quite pleased with it. you know, it's -- and i would say also you have the confidence of having gone through those things and so, you know, for us, we live in a rough neighborhood as we say but it feels like we're -- you know, we have good times ahead >> and finally, let me end on, you know, what could also be ahead is a new administration in the white house. the trump administration has been very focused on a nationwide wireless 5-g strategy as national security in some ways obviously, the dealings with china where you have a very important customers has impacted your business. what are your expectations if we get a biden administration will things change dramatically for your business?
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>> i'm not sure. you know, for me, of course, we're all following the same vote counts. so we're not sure which way it's going to go. but i tell you, i think the importance of 5-g is kind of a bipartisan issue so we're not expecting big changes in terms of policy there. i think everybody worldwide wants to make sure that they're a leader in 5-g. i think that tends to be a good thing for qualcomm but we'll wait and see either way, i feel like we've got technologies that are important to the world and typically when we have that, we can work our way through anything that comes up should it come up. so, you know, i'm not sure we see it as a big change in terms of the environment that we'll operate in either way. >> yeah. well, we'll have to wait and see as we like to say. steve, always appreciate you taking time with us. $165 billion market value. ceo of qualcomm. >> on a day where the semiconductor index hit an all time high. we'll take brake here.
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good morning, it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. good thursday morning, i'm carl quintanilla with jon for the ajon fortt. dow not far from session highs plus 647 not far from going positive for the year we're watching covid-19 cases, fed decisions, earnings, election is number one >> it is sure is, carl that's where we'll begin
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