solid. i think you have valuation in l high 90s, low 100s from a total return standpoint, i think you'll be okay. >> less than ten seconds >> tesla, scott, up 60 bucks since it bottomed out last week. bot more i like the upside. >> good stuff. dow is up -- well, now it's over 500. "the exchange" starts right now. >> thank you, scotts stocks are surging again today and there's a whole lot to get to on "the exchange. we're waiting for updates on the presidential election. we just got updates on nevada. we do expect some more updates this hour. the markets, though, are loving what they know about the outcome thus far the dow is up more than 500 points right now all the major averages have seen strong gains and on pace for their biggest weekly gains since today. these are the numbers on your screen dow up 532

nasdaq up 272, 2.3%. s&p is up 2% even the russell small caps which lagged yesterday, rebound 2.2% financial is a big part of that. all this is also coming despite record daily covid cases in the u.s. and we have a fed meeting just an hour away let's dive a little deeper on this rally with bob pisani >> kelly, we have a freight train of a rally the s&p 500 is up 7%, almost 8% this week. we're off our highs. we are approaching those old historic highs 3580 was the historic high on september 2nd. we're only 60 points that's less than 2% from that historic high. this is i fairly broad rally look at the sectors. technology doing really well that's a big growth area, but so is cyclical, like industrial stocks and bank stocks also on the upside consumer staples, health care, more defensive stocks up, but not nearly as much

why are we getting this rally? you pick your reasons. the most important one, of course, was no major tax hikes on the horizon, particularly for corporate or capital gains tax that's number one. if you look elsewhere, there's less regulation of tech and health care involved of course, we're talking about a meeting today of the central banks, the federal reserve they may increase their qe we don't know about the fed, but bank of england has already. there's some talk that the ecb might as well. we have vaccine data coming. there's a lot of positive news out there. i think the most important thing is the whole idea maybe we'll get a little more stimulus coming sooner rather than later from mr. mcconnell in the senate new highs for tech stocks. qualcomm had great numbers overall. when we see lam research, kma and alphabet t the cyclical stocks are had great numbers.

lindie with newhighs and parke hannifan as well we're getting industrials, cyclicals moving and defensive names aren't up as much but when you get 6 to 1 declining into the weeks, that's a pretty broad rally. back to you. >> parker up 10%, thank you for bringing that to us. we're awaiting results from the six final states just getting more votes tallied in nevada. eamon javers joins us with details. >> let's look at the big board, the race to 270. this has been stalled since the last states were called. we have a similar picture if you look at the nation overall joe biden just 17 votes away in the electoral college from taking the presidency of the united states, but where is he going to find those 17 votes you look at the six states that have still not been called

five states that have not been called you're looking at ultimately some opportunities for biden he has multiple channels to get through. the president really needs to run the table on just about everything that's been out there. we are getting new data from nevada as we go through the morning here they've been blurping out little bits of data the latest number, 49.4 for biden, 48.5 for trump. that's what they're saying, 88% of the vote is telling them right now. a relatively tightening picture. biden had a lead over 12,000 earlier today. that's now under 12,000. we'll see where we go throughout the day as those blurps of data come from those states arizona, a similar picture as we rotate through the country biden, 50.5, trump 48.1. a difference of 68,000 votes in the state of arizona with 80% of the vote in. pennsylvania, this one, 20

electoral college votes. if joe biden were to win pennsylvania, he is the next president. but the question, how many votes are left to be counted in the city of philadelphia is there enough margin for joe biden to take the state of pennsylvania and to become the 46th president of the united states meanwhile, the president is out with a statement just within the past little while. he says, if you count the legal votes, i easily win the election if you count the illegal votes, they can easily steal the election from us there's no indication that there's any illegal votes or fraud in this other than from the president of theunited states no evidence there's fraudulent activity from anywhere in the country. but the president is making the argument there is some kind of fraud out there somewhere that's disadvantaging him he had tweeted earlier in the day, stop the vote count, stop the count, is what the tweet

said aides since then have been trying to spin that and parse it and walk it back a little bit and say what the president is talking about is stopping any votes that came in illegally after the fact, in states where that vote was not allowed. despite the fact there's no evidence of that the president tweeting, stop the count, though, puts him in a position where he's calling for states that are counting votes for the first time to actually stop that process. that's what he called for. and aides have been trying to explain that, kelly, for the better part of the afternoon now. >> he's not known for his finesse. i'm sure they're used to it. we look forward to the updates thank you very much. let's head straight to one of the states we were talking about where the race is too close to call. contessa brewer is live in alma, georgia. what's the latest there? >> reporter: nice to see you this is bacon county, their ballots are entirely counted 86% of the people who voted here

voted for trump. as the absentee ballots in bigger metro counties have been processed, trump's lead is shrinking. at midnight wednesday night, he led by 372,000 votes and 24 hours later he led by 23,000 votes as the democratic dominated metro area saw these ballots come in and be counted now it stands at -- let's show you where the razor-thin margins are as we speak. right now in georgia, there you're seeing the live shot of fulton county processing those ballots. less than 13,500 so, here they are in fulton county we understand they expect to have totals coming out of fulton county later today they said just before 11:00 a.m. there were 11,200 still to go there. but we heard then from fulton county saying they had about 4,800 to go. a total of 60,000 votes sta

statewide, according to the secretary of state, outstanding. we expect another update at 3:00 p.m. from the secretary of state. as it stands, 0.3% separating trump and biden. we're waiting on these results in these bigger metro religions, atlanta, savannah, where biden has the advantage. a judge dismissed a lawsuit from president trump accusing chatham county of imimproper counting ballots after the deadline that's been tossed in georgia, if the margin is less than 0.5%, which it is, the candidates can demand a recount. >> that's just the presidential battle we'll talk about the senate races. let's take a pause

the republican controlled senate is not yet guaranteed. for more i'm joined by dan clifton, head of policy research dan, there's some interesting signals in the market today as well the solar stocks are flying, caterpillar, which was down big yesterday on no blue wave is up 6% right now what's going on with these senate races how close is it? could the democrats end up in control of that chamber? >> first, kelly, thank you for having me on it's exciting and the way we were counting ballots now is very different than before with a lot of mail-in voting so that creates some confusion yesterday the republicans had a great day in the senate. even if they don't end up with control, they really did much better than they anticipated now that we're getting the final votes there's some question whether the democrats can get 50 votes or not the central question here is senator perdue's race in georgia. he was comfortably over 50% yesterday, but as more and more votes come in from atlanta and

the atlanta suburbs, that margin is being reduced just as it's being reduced for the president as we heard from contessa. if senator perdue ends up lower than 50% of the vote, we will have what's called a runoff election on january 5th. as you know, georgia already has another runoff election on january 5th for the other senate seat there the democrats are likely going to have 48 votes when everything gets counted then they'll have the chance to win two seats in january >> wow >> that's why you see the markets starting to reprice here, maybe a little better odds i think there's some gaming going on about what's happening in the north carolina senate seat as well i think that's less likely to go democrat right now i think senator tillis has a little bit of a cushion given the number of outstanding ballots that are there and what cal cunningham would need to do to beat him. there's a lot of uncertainty here due to the way we're counting the ballots now and the

market has to sort itself out and kind of reprice as this changes day to day >> so, dan, here's what's so interesting about everything that you're describing it's not yet locked up for the republicans to be in control of the senate and yet the market today, it's looking at the sectors a little differently but we're still seeing the same kind of rally we saw yesterday on what we can call the purple congress, to use jon najarian's term. is the view that, look, the technical majority in the senate is not going to matter whether it's 50 one way or 51 the other, you more or less have the same kind of outcome? how important is it which party has control? if it goes the democratings' way and they have control of the senate and congress, that is a very different narrative. >> our colleague, our technical analyst, likes to say elections don't break trends in the stock market generally if the trend was good going in, then the trend is probably going to be good going out

i think that's playing out in real time for us everybody was excited about a blue wave, stocks went up. blue wave didn't happen and then they were excited about the divided government maybe it's the fact that we're going to get a vaccine and maybe it's the fact we're going to get stimulus regardless of who is in control of congress. those are more important factors than which party is controlling the senate where you see the real dynamics play of this election, and i've always said this, elections are about sectors. health care has a lot at stake so, if there's a republican senate, health care's going to do really good if there's a 50-50 senate with the democrats in control, health care's going to do okay because there's not enough to really go do the public option or serious drug pricing plan that could materially hurt them but if you had 53, 54, 55 democrats, you could start to see industries getting restructured in that perspective. energy and health care that's off the table we're really having a debate

about whether it's going to be 50, 49 or 48 democratic senators in this situation. >> yeah, that makes sense. dan, i want to ask one final one before we have to go on the presidential race. right now it looks like biden is kind of closing in he's on the cusp of that electoral count. you throw in nevada, another state. i understand all that. but what if those states go red enough that president trump can still pull this off? no one seems to be discussing this possibility, say, except for a few different strategists i follow, how possibleis it that president trump could end up re-elected right here >> he needs a zero flush he needs to lock up arizona, he needs to lock up dpoernlg geoge. if he locks up nevada, that's a bonus. he has to secure georgia and north carolina when they release their numbers next week before

he can have the fight over pennsylvania it looks to be more of a legal relations fight. here's what worries me there's a lot of euphoria in the market right now, but the republicans are starting to believe that the election is being stolen from them you may say that's not true. i may not believe that's true. it doesn't matter what we believe. there is a really bad sentiment building in the republican party when 50,000 votes just show up out of nowhere there could be a good explanation for it, but somebody's got to explain why that's happening that's why i start to think the longer the pinata gets out there, the more it could get hit. i would like to have this presidential election resolved sooner rather than later because the longer this festerses, the more bad feelings that will come out of this. >> we already know, based on what you're saying t could be january for the senate there is some uncertainty still. dan, thanks so much. >> thank you let's talk about the

markets. stocks continue to surge higher with the s&p and nasdaq. get this now within 2% of their all-time highs from early september the dow was close to flipping in positive territory for the year. is all this euphoria, let's use the word again, premature and let's put that question to our market panel today sue, brave levitt from invesco and julia mackey brian, i want to start with you straight up on the stock market here would you trust all the excitement over a divided goment or would you share some of the concerns that dan just laid out? >> obviously i would say there's uncertainty around the outcome but i don't know if i call it euphoria but the optimism about what's going on in the stock market is you have a picture of what has been an improving economic environment now, that may play out with some fits and starts over the next weeks, but ultimately 2021

should be a significantly better economic back drop we know the fed is on hold indefinitely we know there's likely some stimulus coming into this market he know stocks are cheap to bonds. we know that financial conditions have eased meaningfully all of that is a great back drop for equities and there's largely going to be irrespective of the election divided government could give a boost and a divided government can paradoxically boost this cycle but there are good factors to this market. >> julia, we're less than an hour away from the fed decision that is barely getting mentioned today. plenty of people are pointing out, the fed remains one if not the most important players in the room >> absolutely.

i think they're going to try to stay out of the room today i think what they're doing behind closed doors is hatching out how to put a framework around their quantitative easing that's the unfinished business in their forward guidance. we know they're on public interest rates but they haven't given us a sense of how they're going to structure their asset purchases in 2021 and going forward. so, i think they're having that debate and that discussion they'll probably want to roll that out in december once they have better clarity on the fiscal outlook so, one way or another, if we have better prospects for fiscal or worse prospects for fiscal, they're going to want to put a framework for asset purchases that can expand with those prospects. so, i think we're going to see them tie asset purchases to their economic objectives in a flexible way and i think that's what they're going to be discussing today not rolling it out today but discussing it and rolling it

out in december. >> kind of telegraphing what's coming and usually that's enough for the market this also comes at a week when rates are swirling around. we were as high as almost 1% now a little north of 75 basis points if this scenario where biden is the president and the senate does go democrat pans out, are we expecting to see rates march back up higher from here >> poenl i think what happened was the reflation trade was fully priced into the bond market earlier on when it became clear it's not going to be a blue sweep, that got very quickly priced out of the market broadly speaking i think that scenario is back in play, then there's definitely a case to be made for a rise in yields. the big concern, the big rifshg for the fed going into today's meeting is the sharp decline in

break-even and inflation expectations what the fed really wants with average inflation targeting is steady rise in rates if the market evens out, reflation trades is in decline, that will be a concern for the fed. >> that's well said. let me circle back, brian. we started with the stock market, we'll end there. is this the kind of situation where people should try to avoid making real specific bets on any particular sector because there's going to what seems like a lot of uncertainty in the weeks and months ahead >>. >> i think a lot of investors, at least the ones i spoke to, were concerned about the volatility this week, a contested election, so this is a reminder that investors tend to get the timing of these things wrong. there's already a lot of money sitting on the sidelines in my mind, they should be setting up for an improving economic environment as we progress through 2021 and all of

that entails, a move higher in rates, a steeper yield curve, more of the value-oriented cyclical parts of market participating more than they had been over time i expect the recovery gives way to a pretty moderate expansion and that will take us back into an environment we were in for a middle part of the 2010s. for now it's likely to be a reflation trade and investors should be positioned accordingly. >> you make it sound almost easy we know it's far from it thank you all on a big market day. we appreciate it. coming up, the jobs market is still healing from the spring but the pace of healing has slowed we'll get an inside look as we await tomorrow's big jobs report. covid cases in the u.s. hitting a new daily high with cities like boston imposing curfews. we have the latest next. take a look at the social stocks as we go. pinterest, facebook, twitter all jumping today. facebook is now up 12% just this

week with another 3% gain today. you doing okay?

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a dire new record in the u.s. with daily covid cases spiking over 100,000 a day meg tirrell is here with the very latest on this spread meg? >> hi, kelly the number yesterday, 103,000 in the united states, passing that 100,000 new daily case milestone in this country thatwe've been hearing folks like dr. anthony fauci warn about since the summer those prior peaks did not get that high. if you look back over the summer, we kind of peaked at 77,000 cases per day back in the spring peak, it was around 36,000. of course, we were not testing as much in the spring. it's really hard to compare. you can just see how this is accelerating now as we get into the colder months. the seven-day average in new cases, about 89,000 per day in the united states. what we really worry about, though, of course, are hospitalizations and deaths. we now have 52,000 americans in the hospital in the united states as of yesterday the number of deaths reported yesterday is more than 1,000 and on the seven-day average has

ticked up to 858 you tend to see hospitalizations rise a few weeks after cases and deaths start to tick up a few weeks after hospitalizations now, where is it the worst in the country? well, everywhere is seeing spread, but the midwest is seeing the most infections per capita you can see here from covid exit strategy, those states in the red there seeing more than 500 new daily cases per million people in those states and you're seeing a number of states with icu capacity under strain, kelly. four different states from alabama, georgia, mississippi and tennessee, all at more than 80% of their icu capacity full that's considered constrained. public health experts are quite worried about the trajectory right now. carlos del rio from emory reporting we could see 200,000 cases a day by thanksgiving at the rate we're on right now. >> meg, are there any common threads between areas where we're seeing these outbreaks now and the areas like the northeast that aren't?

i mean, does it just have to do with who got it worse the last time around? are there totally different measures as regards to mask wearing and not mask wearing what are you hearing >> yeah, some of those things could definitely apply attitudes towards the virus, ability to stay home, wearing masks mandates and things like that the northeast was hit so hard so there was a thought areas that have seen how bad covid can get, folks there, whether mandated by their local governments or not, will be more cautious than areas that hadn't seen it so badly before we are seeing essentially every area tick up while the midwest is being hit particularly hard, states over here are seeing upticks as well it's really a bad situation as we head into the colder months everywhere. >> i just keep hoping it stops going up but hope is not a strategy that's all we've got meg, thank you we appreciate it meg tirrell with the latest on

the covid front. as all this swirls around, jobless claim last week came in above estimates. 160,000 americans filing claims for unemployment insurance there are still more than 7 million people receiving ongoing assistance joining me with a check on the labor market's recovery as covid cases surge again is evan from recruiter.com. it's great to have you back. i'm hoping you have some good news for us but i just have to imagine people are turning more cautious as this pandemic keeps spreading. >> thanks for having me on, kelly. yes, i agree the recruiter.com sentiment is 3.3 for the second month that's out of 5, so we have a well to go but it's above the 2.5 sentiment which we were at in april this is the first time in the last three months that

positivity has not grown at all. the average recruiter is working on 15 open rolls down from 16 in september, which was the high since covid-19 started we're down a little bit there, too. in august, we pointed out there was 90% optimism in the manufacturing space, there was a real quick uptick in the manufacturing jobs but now optimism for the manufacturing jobs is slightly below 70%. selectly the manufacturing jobs are slowing up too our industry bright spots -- sorry, kelly >> oh, sure. i was going to say the rebound in manufacturing has been one of the bright spots of the whole economy. about the a lot has been restocking and catching up with demand let's talk about health care and some other industries. where are you seeing strength and where else are you seeing weakness right now >> the bright spots were health care manufacturing they're down, slightly below

70%. there's actually no industry now above the 70% in optimism in terms of new jobs. it's really pointing a little slower, certainly in the last 30 to 60 days while this seems negative, recruiters are reporting their workloads in october are only down from 11% in october of 2019 so, despite the discussions around the second wave of covid and the political turmoil, only about 25% of recruiters feel covid is having an affect on their recruiting activities. there's something interesting we started to track remote work actually beat out compensation as the top draw for candidates, according to the recruiters 35% -- >> i bet it did, yeah. >> amazing, right? 35% said that remote work was a higher priority than 30% of compensation so, if we're going to focus on remote workers, we'll see the industries that support remote workers are going to recover faster from a jobs perspective

we're seeing that. we hear about the silicon valley companies going all remote we hear, gee, i don't need to hire an engineer from silicon valley, i can hire an engineer from montana or nevada and working fully remotely health care and manufacturing which are almost all local, in-person jobs, while optimistic in terms of job openings, actually filling those jobs has been slower because they're not aligning with the candidate's preference for remote work. >> exactly exactly. again, it's almost like having some certainty on the pandemic sticking around is accelerate willing all of these trends. i hear what you're telling us and i wonder if tomorrow's job report will be a wet blanket just a reminder that the sharp recovery we saw this year is slowing. thanks for joining us with all that information we really appreciate it. coming up, the hotel industry has been slammed by the pandemic and now faces a rising

case count into the winter how will they cope we talk to the ceo from choice hotels. plus, is fed chair powell's job in jeopardy no matter who wins the white house despite covid concerns, retail is on the move, and some of the best names, wayfair, mattel and macy's seeing nice gains. hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting

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welcome back breaking news on the presidential race. this time regarding the vote count in michigan. eamon javers with us >> a couple of court-related issues to bring you up to speed on one is this lawsuit in michigan now. the trump campaign is losing the lawsuit to seek, to halt vote counting in michigan, according to an oral order from a state court judge there. the trump campaign was hoping to stop the vote counting in the state of michigan. that's not going to happen according to the state court judge. we'll see if there's an electoral vote the projected winner is 50.6, joe biden, 47.8%, donald trump that comes on the heels of a georgia lawsuit dismissed earlier in the date. a state court judge dismissed the lawsuit that was filed wednesday by the trump campaign. and the georgia republican party. what they were claiming in that lawsuit, kelly, is that the late-arriving mail ballots were mixed in with ballots that arrived over time.

it included a claim from an observer who thought they saw something there. what happened in georgia was the judge says, there's no evidence that the ballots seen by the observer were improper the trump campaign losing a court battle in michigan, losing another court battle in georgia. as that happens, we do have a little additional vote in the state of georgia, if we can call up the state there a 13,000 vote difference between the two men. and donald trump's lead is narrowing in the state of georgia. 49.5% for trump, 49.2% for joe biden. we're going to watch this one carefully. georgia has only 16 electoral college votes. it's not enough to make the difference here. biden needs 17 to get to 270 georgia on its own doesn't get biden to the top georgia has been a red state for so very long, the fact that biden is making a late run at georgia is fascinating in terms of its political dynamics.

and mixed with one other state, that could be enough to put biden over the top we'll watch that one very, very carefully, as is the rest of the country, kelly. >> you laid it out perfectly eamon javers with all the latest at this hour let's turn to markets and see how they're reacting the dow was up 647 rat the high. we're up 546 2% it's pretty much another 2% for all the major averages nasdaq is 2.4% in terms of the sectors, they're all green. materials, industrials and financials are your leaders. materials are up 4.5% today. that's interesting we were speaking about the senate earlier this hour and the chance that it could still possibly go democratic based on some of the runoff seats in georgia. you see names like caterpillar, rebounding 6% today. the financials doing well. also, remember they got crushed yesterday on low rates citizens financial up 9% all the faang names are also

solidly higher amazon and netflix your biggest gainers and amazon is up about 3% today shares of qualcomm are a standout after soaring on better than expected earnings and an upbeat forecast. the results, which have qualcomm up 13%, also lifting lam and applied materials. take a look at the payment stocks square, payment, mastercard are higher square is having a huge week, now tallying up a 13% gain paypal is up 4% today. let's get to sue herera for our news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. france has reported a new all-time high for the number of new virus cases with the number of confirmed cases up by 58,000 over the last 24 hours alone as that country continues its new lockdown measures, france's health minister says the days and weeks to come will be, quote, difficult a new study by the cdc suggests that working remotely

has helped reduce the spread of covid-19 the report showed people who were working had an office setting prior to getting sick were almost twice as likely to test positive than those who worked from home wisconsin's governor delivered a radio address today encouraging wisconsinites to stay home and take every precaution to protect the health and safety of their communities. the wisconsin supreme court declined to reinstate coronavirus restrictions, limiting the size of public gatherings and take a look at that. volkswagen announced its bentley brand will only include plug-in hybrids and electric cars by 2026 and fully electricity by the year 2030. the company's launch for next year whether include two plug-in hybrids. get those checkbooks out that's the news update this hour back to you. >> sue, thank you very much. sue herera. coming up on the "the

exchange," 401(k) investors have been making a lot of moves in their accounts we'll tell you where the money is flowing. taking a look at gm, the stock is higher after reporting a stronger than expected quarter. shares up about 5%, but they were up 150% from their $14 low this year. they're trading at almost $37 today. gm says it plans to reinstate its dividend in the middle of next year. back with much more on today's market rally after this. we're excited to do business with you

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welcome back to "the exchange." take a look at shares of choice hotels, parent company of quality inn suites among others. the company missed its earnings with beat on revenue and said there was improvement in travel in the third quarter they didn't issue new guidance and it comes as the u.s. is reporting a record number of daily covid cases. joining me is choice hotels ceo. what are you bracing for as we head into winter and covid isn't

going anywhere >> thanks again for having me. if i remember the last time i was on with you back in may, you know, our industry and our company was just sort of understanding what was happening with the covid crisis. the third quarter our revenue per available room was down 29%. the rest of the industry as a whole was down 20% worse at 49%. the reason our brands are outperforming is because of that midscale leisure travel focus we've always had with the cases rising now that we're seeing, we actually saw this before back in july and august, we saw cases rise but we didn't see that correlate with travel volume starting to decline. it has been building month over month since april, and we just looked at our october numbers, which are down only 5% relativ to the 28% decline we saw in the second and third quarter so, month over month we are continuing to see an

improvement, and that travel volume is beginning to grow. i think a lot of that is because consumers are becoming more comfortable with the idea of travel and they know they can do it in a safe way, as long as they avoid large gatherings, they wear their masks and follow the protocols we have in our hotels >> again, it's kind of -- as a bellwether for the whole economy, even if we can keep going even as this spreads i know you're looking for aid from congress and how does the outcome of the election affect those odds >> we've been advocating since the stimulus expired at the end of july for the consumers and the ppp program expired in early august for a second draw for the ppp program. there's still money in that program that was never utilized. we know there's bipartisan support for help for small businesses all of our hotels are owned by franchisees. 90% of them qualify as small businesses we're advocating for that.

we're advocating for a streamlining of loan forgiveness for the ppp program for loans under $150,000 finally, we're advocating for liability protection for those hotels following the safety protocols, they should be protected against frivolous lawsuits i'm hopeful with the election behind us, i know there's a lot of uncertainty as to how it would turn out, but that's what we've heard as an industry, wait until we get to the other side, there will be stimulus in a lame duck session and we're going to continue to push for that. >> maybe you'll get it one way or the other at this point pat, thanks for joining us and updating us on the business, especially those october trends. we're all counting on this information to get a sense of what the whole economy is doing. thank you very much. >> thanks, kelly >> ceo of choice hotels. we are less than 20 minutes away from the fed rate decision and a news conference by fed chair jerome powell. the key language to listen for and why powell's job could be in

jeopardy no matter who wins the election. the airline stocks are soaring despite a 5% drop in tsa passenger numbers from last week, similar to the hotels discussion we were just having a look at delta, jetblue, up 5%.

welcome back we're just minutes away from the fed's latest policy decision despite votes still being counted in some crucial swing states, investors appear to be banking on a divided government with joe biden in the white house and republicans perhaps maintaining control of the senate if that scenario plays out, what does it mean for thestimulus and the recovery and how will the fed factor in? >> greg joining me from "the wall street journal. there's a lot of substantive stuff to get to in that, but i want to ask you -- i don't know, the kind of intriguing personnel question do you think powell's job is in jeopardy one way or the other

here >> it's hard to tell you can make a story one way or the other. if trump hangs on, is actually re-elected, i think there was a lot of friction between the two of them. you can imagine when jay powell's job comes up for renewal in 2022, trump may be looking for a loyalist but it's hard to see what other policy some chairman could do as friendly as the current chairman's the truth if joe biden is president, what additional policy would the fed pursue? the additional consideration in a biden presidency, that could be a point in favor of renominating jay powell. >> do you think it's more likely than not that powell keeps his job, greg? >> just don't know there's too many uncertainties out there. >> fair enough that's early days to be asking you about that let's move on and talk about the decision coming up in a couple minutes that's been the least important thing on investors'

mind today we spoke with julia at the top of the hour who said, look for them to lay out the kiwi plans they may have into next year. >> i think that's what we'll be looking for. i think the q&a could be interesting in that regard our sense is tha that means perhaps we should be bracing for more lockdowns but right now that's not happening and the economic data looks pretty good so that is taking pressure off the fed. on the negative side, stimulus talks broke down that said, the senate leader, mitch mcconnell, does seem to be doing a deal during the lame duck and if the economy rolls over because of the pandemic, you'll see increased pressure on the fed to move. those are the contingent questions that i would like to hear powell answer this afternoon. two possibilities. you think it increased the

volume of quantitative easing from 120 billion a month or a lot of people would like to chang the mix of bonds they buy and that might have an impact on the long end the pushback you might get from some folks on the fed is what good would it do the consistent message from the fed has been fiscal policy is so much more powerful right now >> right to that point, greg, and finally as bill dud lii dudley suggeste they had to do more, would they be able to help the economy? >> i think they are pretty much out of bullets they've got interest rates at zero and said they will not go negative, the long-term bond yield below 1% they do have a few credit programs left over from the c.a.r.e.s. act, most importantly the main street lending program

which has had very little takeup in conjunction with the treasury, you could see them easing the terms for that but the issue is lack of demand. i just don't think there is much that they can do i don't expect powell to say that he just kept talking about how powerful their guidance was and how many more tools they had yet. as a fed chairman, i think you have to say that because you're not allowed to say there's a lot they can do but i don't think there's a lot they can do. >> usually they nod and say there's tons we can do greg, appreciate it. >> meanwhile as markets are on track for their best week since april now, best week since april, some 401(k) investors have been making more moves than usual. we take a closer look at their trading activity what do we know, sharon?

>> we know this week some long-term investors switched from buy and hold to more of a trader mindset on they of the election, investment, they judgment ed to twice the normal daily average that accounted for about .06 of balances it's a significant increase with money moving toward fixed income. >> whenever there's an event of uncertainty or volatility, people tend to trade because they transfer their emotions to their 401k portfolio and that's not usually a good thing >> look what happened four years ago. november 9th, 2016, the day after the presidential election was a record breaker with 401(k) trading activity rising to

nearly 4 1/2 half times the daily average. since that date the s&p 500 has gained more than 60%, kelly. >> and at least for the most part people aren't, you know, trading these things day by day. sharon, thank you very >> for the most part >> that does it for "the exchange" today, everybody the fed's rate decision is just moments away i'm join teryl mathisen for "power lunch" and more after this quick break before money, people traded goods.

tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale.

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good afternoon, everyone welcome to a special edition of "power lunch," a fed edition, moments away from the fed's decision on interest rates the markets are rallying across the board for the fourth straight day let's get to our predecision panel with more on what to expect from the fed, which is coming while the votes for the presidential election are still being counted. david kelly, chief global strategist, mona from allianz global investors and james karon from morgan stanley.

jim, what do you expect the chairman fed to say today? >> i don't think the fed wants to say much. as you pointed out, we're right in the middle of an election right now that's being disputed. the fed has already talked a lot about what their plans are for a new framework in september, they have flexibility average inflation targeting. they do need to discuss a little bit more about qe and a little bit more about their balance sheet but i don't think this is the right meeting. the other is that the fed needs to weigh in the amount of fiscal stimulus they had incorporated in their previous september summary of economic projections. we're not exactly sure how much of that that they incorporated into their forecast and how that may alter. but i think they're going to keep their language very open ended. they're not going to say very much different about what they said in september. i think december's going to be a bigger meeting >> jim makes a very interesting point, mona. maybe the fed was counting on

big are stiger stimulus to come and that puts the med maybe on the spot to do more sooner what do you think? >> look, jerome powell hasn't hidden his approval or his favorability on having more congressional stimulus he's called on congress to come together and put stimulus on the table. i think he's even said no number is really too big at this point. keep in mind, though, we've already had quite a substantial rate move the last few days itself we've come down close to 76,77 points on the basis yield. if we had the blue wave scenario and the full biden agenda were on the table, the fed might be in a more precarious situation they be a little bit more cobble today. -- comfortable today

all they need to say is they're ready to step in as needed >> a quick 20 seconds, david >> i think what we have here is lower for longer, less fiscal stimulus if we are not to use accelerator -- if we're using accelerator with a lot of fiscal stimulus, the fed would have to use the break sooner the fed can hold off on breaking the economy. >> let's go to steve liesman for the results of this fed meeting. >> the federal reserve leaving interest rates unchanged the fed saying it is committed to using its full range of tools to achieve its goals of maximum employment and price stability it said on economic activity and employment continue to recover, however, the economy and economic activity remain well below the levels prepandemic inflatio