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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 12, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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and gloom, and now on the regional lockdowns i don't care what people say, that it's just that the blue states like illinois, that it is advising poem to stay home, that new york is threatening to close schools. new york and california are more than a quarter of this country's gdp so it matters. >> we are out of time. disney is well up after closing hours. time for "fast money." >> i am melissa lee. tonight on fast, a red alert covid cases spiking, stocks tumbling, how traders are navigating this uncertainty. plus wfh tax or wtf tax. taxing employees who work from home it's our outrage of the day.
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covid surges to its highest level since 2018 disney jumping after hours julia? >> better than expected top and bottom line results. ending the quarter with 73 million subscribers. the company also announcing it will forego its next semiannual dividend and that's due to the cause of coronavirus. disney shares giving up some of those gains, now about 3.5%. the ceo saying in the call going on right now, the disney direct to consumer business is its bright spot. >> the growth of disney plus speaks volumes about the strength of our ip, our
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unparallel granting franchises and creators, all part of the disney difference that sets us apart from everyone else and when you look across our full suite of streaming services, we have exceeded 120 million paid subscriptions worldwide. >> meanwhile, a smaller than expected loss. losing 2.4 billion due to covid, but down from the 3.5 billion. the company also reports that they are reassured by booking trends at walt disney world and urging california to allow its disneyland resorts to reopen saying people are showing a willingness to visit the parks and they are able to operate them safely. >> julia, thank you.
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we mentioned after hours high. >> the dividend was due january 1. what did you make of this move is it weiss? what did you make of this quarter? >> what was the number you wanted to hear out of disney we wanted to hear about disney plus they grew about 22%. >> around content versus distribution and better aligning entertainment, studio and sports with the distribution channels to let the consumer determine where these things were going to live this is what the market was
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wanting to see and something that wasn't born out of covid and the fact that studios were not open, so they had to send mulan through their own channels i think this may be where they are going. the most important dynamic is disney plus. i don't care they suspended the dividend i thought these numbers were solid. the fact that the parks experience was less bad, that's not why you are owning disney right now. >> mulan was an amazing experiment in that they charged users to watch that movie on top of the subscription fee which i know you shelled out, guy. >> it's on a loop in my house. i hope they don't catch me watching it for the 73rd time. no, i haven't been watching that movie and won't be paying for
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it i am not their target audience disney is in the sweet spot vis-a-vis the disney plus numbers. by the way, that was 50% better than the street was looking for. there is a lot to like here. what you don't like and have to struggle with is valuation even if you doubled that to $5 a share which is probably best-case scenario, you are still talking about a stock trading at 28 times those numbers which is expensive by disney numbers the market is trying to figure out how to give them a netflix type valuation that's what i think the market is struggling with at $142 a share. >> for a company transitioning its model, for a company that wants to be valued more like a
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netflix as opposed to the traditional disney, how do you make that adjustment and think about valuation in the out years? >> like what google has done to me that would be one way to highlight that i think the dividend thing -- i want to address. i feel like they are doing the right thing for sure given these massive losses which are shocking given the rest of the business they have cover to do it the other thing is, remember, they have a lot of debt from 21st century fox, whatever they called it before they closed they do care about cash flow and don't need to put the dividend back to where it was it is not necessary lit a binary choice.
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that's not a long-term plan. >> pete, where do you stand? >> i thought it was a good quarter. >> should disney have a little bit of netflix love, valuation that netflix has >> some, mel, absolutely, but i think you have to look back. disney the brand people are champing at the bit people want to go back to the parks. they have had the closures and layoffs and all of the rest of it but they focused on the right area and been dealing with the whole distribution network and trying to get more content out there. i think they are doing everything right, but to guy's point, when you look at this
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company and try to piece together what would be the right pe, i think you are getting towards -- it's not there yet -- but you are getting at something that looks like a netflix valuation already based on where we are in the process. they will start making more money and more money, but the big question is when that's what we all are struggling with. at that point in time we will see some nice jumps, but until then i think it will remain a fairly volatile stock between 125 and 150. >> the subscribers are more than expected, but we have seen these companies pull forward if $73 million is what you are basing the disney valuation on, because that's a huge catalyst at this point, what do you think about the pull forward effect and whether or not that
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trajectory of subscriber ads will keep up? >> i am not worried about it going forward. this is a case -- guy mentioned either stay at home or reopening, maybe stay at home has pushed the disney plus offering isn't that what they wanted to do jam the channels now the biggest issue is that the studio, which has been a cash cow and feeding into contents -- this whole new model is about how do we take our content it has been an extraordinary run and something they have to think
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about. no, i want to see them grow faster again they are pulling forward those 2024 estimates >> we will keep you posted on any developments let's get to the market. cases are surging nationwide 143,000 new infections wednesday. major news within the past couple hours chicago issuing a stay at home advisory meaning residents should hunker down and only leave for work or their needs. it takes effect monday we saw a reaction. dow dropping off, and s&p in the red. a lot of this was give-back. guy? >> i don't think the covid is taking anyone by surprise. we have been talking about it
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seemingly for months and months and things seem to be getting worse. i understand why the market would sell off on the back of that i think will ber ross's comments about by the way, in 2021, we have to focus on the deficit -- we haven't heard from him for months and all of a sudden comments come out which i find fascinating. two weeks ago nobody seemed to care i think the market took some of its cues from that as well i think pete would agree that vix traded down to 22-ish the other day. the vix will probably vacillate between 22 and 32. i think we are trending up that way. it makes sense to me i am fascinated the market finally seemed to take its cues from covid, but i thought the will ber ross comments under the radar might have been a catalyst >> the vaccine volatility is
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unbelievable some days it seems to be in our favor and other days not clearly we have this big flip around everybody that was going away from growth and going towards value and suddenly that trade in a matter of days completely changed. look how fast they started to turn on the industrials and financials and then suddenly that flips but i think it's interesting, mel, to watch the continued want for certain names. i think it does come down to quality. less about growth, less about some of the other categories if you have quality names, those names seem to be the ones that don't get hit as hard to the downside and the ones leading when we have upside. if you find quality names on the discount, more quality for all of us. >> let's bring in stephanie. great to have you with us.
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>> great to be here. >> would you agree with pete, trying to name this market move versus val ute or take your pick in terms of factors? >> i am in chicago and i am not happy about the news from mayor laura lightfoot about being locked down for 30 more days at least my kids' school is still open so that is a blessing we saw monday and tuesday what we thought was a big rotation out of the tech names into the value names. we saw it perform on the s&p and thought is that the way our investors are going. then it flipped yesterday and today we got no love for anything we had the nasdaq leading the
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way for part of the way, but every s&p sector closed in the red so nothing today >> it's karen. thanks for being on. do you think if we got positive news out of moderna, which would be the most likely in the near term, that we would see value out of that trade? >> i think we could. s&p got up to 36.80 -- i am sorry 3645 on the cash monday. so interday record high on that news if we get news again i think some of the news might be baked in because we are close to all-time highs i am surprised at the resiliency of the market, but i think a lot of it is based on vaccine news
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there are 200-plus companies at any minute we can hear from one of them, and i think we could get a repeat of monday's action, karen. into great to speak with you, staffnee thank you for your time. stephanie lewicky of td ameritrade >> tim >> stephanie was saying we are going to get a vaccine at some point. you don't want to be short the market i am not suggesting she was saying that. everything i hear is that we are going to get a vaccine monday was an important step towards that even if it wasn't the final stop what do you do now the most quality -- and this is pete's term and i think it is even some value in the megacap
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tech names but after being beaten down and cyclicality. but google for sure is booming for the stay at home economy and the economy that is going to open back up this is why, no matter what we do, rotate value growth. we do this every night because this is what the market gives us every day. that's not a trade that somebody is going to get shut off yes, there is an argument about valuations with amazon and even apple, but that's where quality lies and why those names never run too far. yesterday we had a 14.5% correction in the nasdaq and 11.5% correction in the last three months we have full team coverage standing by to break down
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numbers. and bitcoin booms. our bitcoin baller will be here with thoughts on howuc mh higher prices can go. there is a lot more "fast money" on the other side of this quick break. t today, knowing we're prepared for tomorrow. wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe? i don't think so...what do you think, peanut? nope. honey, do you think we overdid it? overdid what? see? we don't think so, son. technically, grandparents can't overdo it. it's impossible. well planned, well invested, well protected. voya. be confident to and through retirement.
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welcome back we have earnings alerts from cisco. let's kick things off with dee >> cisco is down 20% year-to-date if it could hold on to current gains, it could cut the losses significantly. it suggests it is seeing recovery last week a rival reported it had a pickup chuck robbins said, and i quote here, i think this enterprise thing is going to be fine. when pressed, he said they are seeing a robust pipeline then they saw a pause in the last quarter as many companies reprioritized, and that will bring them back to cisco
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another thing investors might like is the new ceo scott herren >> pete, you like cisco? >> i do, because i must have made a mistake on friday i was holding calls, but i sold them so i no longer have a position. it's impressive, mel and i think the most impressive part is what they are seeing going forward in the guidance security was up about 6% other areas of the company hardware was down about 16%. not everything looked that great, but they are seeing improvement. oft times that's important to hear the last thing i would say about
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cisco is this. look at their valuation levels we talk about value. how great is a value when we talk about a 12 or 14 pe forward. this is an inexpensive company that has a lot of room if the ceo they are bringing around can turn things around, this is an opportunity to go much higher. >> karen, that is the point tim was making about the intersection of tech and value now she is saying that it is going to be fine >> it is last quarter the stock was 48 and they had a weak quarter. the stock was 36 maybe ten days ago. so down 25%. it has had the benefit of the bar being somewhat low,
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expectations, and also they were able to report a really good quarter. i agree with pete, it is cheap this is interesting and i like they have good momentum. >> let's get to peleton. that stock is dropping after its first earnings report. josh >> it is battling back it was down and now flipping into the green jeffre jeffreys says that it looks good he points out the average revenue was up 38% when i talked to brent stock was down about 5%. expectations were super high and he is right. it is up about 60% off its october low. the cfo, coo are on the call,
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highlighting wins including a renewal with an aerospace customer they did not name that customer, but they say it reinforces their strength with founder. two they say with the u.s. army. and they also say they are also supporting the trump administration's warp speed. >> when you say going up 38% that means the diversity of customer base is broadening? it's not relying on a couple of key customers? >> yeah. some have expressed concern and what is acustomer concentratio risk that after 17 years a company has about 125 customers. they want to know how big the market is. brent is one of those analysts
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he has a buy on this name. he points out this renewal but the street wants to see less elephant and more antelope >> that was vivid. i remember that. guy, everybody wants more antelope the than elephants. the stock really ran into this quarter. >> that's it it went from 9 to 17 seemingly in a straight line i think the epf scared people and then they said guidance is i thi okay >> in terms of obtuse, tim robbins used that word in shaw shank redemption and it didn't
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work for him and, two, nobody should be hunting elephants given the environment we find ourselves on, with them on the endangered list maybe pick up a couple of antelope, but no elephants >> so you are advocating hunting antelope on the show that's a first >> no, i am more advocating not hunting elephants. >> tim >> i am glad we have gotten away from the animal kingdom. this is a company that will be there for a long time. maybe it is a tighter customer base and maybe you want to see 60% of revenues from 20% of clients and people want to see more diversity but right now there is no one else who does it at a time when we are overpaying for software companies. they understood what they did for research customers and it
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went from 950 up >> peleton is trying to go positive in the after hours. here is what is coming up next >> paying more to work from home the proposal we should pay for the privilege to work remotely post pandemic. and what options traders are expecting when the gambling sites report earnings tomorrow u about exciting uplans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, you're still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see they cover the same
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singing sinking. you are looking at the cruise ship a passenger on board reportedly affected with coronavirus left barbados there were 53 passengers the measures they were taking to prevent an outbreak. >> every passenger had to be tested before even flying to barbados and getting onto the ship within three days and then tested again at the pier >> he went on to say passengers were not required to wear masks on board until two days into the trip this is a smaller cruise line, not publicly traded. but for anybody thinking about a cruise, they will say take a look at that one cruise that went off and there was a covid case on it >> we have been grappling with this for a long time it used to be airplanes and then
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people got eased back into that. it seems like we are hitting numbers tolerable. with the cruise ships this is something going on people are betting on something positive from a vaccine perspective. this is something not very pleasing for the rest of the big publicly traded companies. >> it's a publicity disaster for the cruise industry. the fact you would not be caught dead on a cruise, let's put that aside. unbiased opinion on the cruise line this is the ultimate, ultimate vaccine play, right? >> karen has talked about this the way to play a potential vaccine or seemingly a vaccine in summer is not the
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pharmaceuticals. i want to point out i saw this love boat episode a few months ago where i think gopher talks to captain stubbing about this so it's amazing how life is imitating that or vice versa maybe it's just me >> i find it shocking it is just one person my guess is it will get worse. if you were to be caught dead on a cruise -- you have to be careful about saying that given the environment we are in -- you have to look to delay it post vaccine which is obviously bad for the cruise lines, but they do have some cash to survive >> here is another story we are tracking for you tonight our research team is proposing a 5% tax on people who wish to continue to work from home post pandemic they justify it because they are
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saving money on things like commute, dry cleaning, eating out. they say tax receipts could reach about $48 billion and could help subsidize those who cannot work from home or those making less because of covid tim, we were discussing this today. >> this is a family show so we will use those initials, wtf how about wealth from the real estate industry. i am paying $20 for a cheeseburger at lunch when i work in an office because the office space is so expensive
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someone else is making money the fact we could be living cheaper and rheal locating our wallet -- how about a $20 cab ride or subway ride that isn't supported in any way by the government this is outrageous i realize that it is a european bank, but i think this is an awful idea >> i wondered when somebody would bring up deutsche bank and that it was a european bank. >> if you are going to think about taxing somebody for saving money, it is not just the workers for sure >> proper decorum prohibits me
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from using the words i would like to use to describe deutsche bank's idea. maybe deutsche bank should take into consideration lack of traffic on our roads and lack of stress on our infrastruks infrastructure or maybe i should get a rebate because i am not going in and out of the tunnel. maybe without this story we won't be talking about deutsche bank anyway. >> free publicity for deutsche back albeit not good publicity >> this could be a massive sort of redistribution of wealth globally >> i actually am not opposed to
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the idea don't tell my husband i said that he probably wouldn't agree i do feel like we are in a unique spot, lucky spot to be able to work remotely, and there are others who can't it would have to be for a very limited amount of time not one of those open end we will put a tax on it and never take it off. that's part of the reason people don't like new taxes because that happens a lot the other thing, i think it would be hard to enforce what if you need to come in for some amount of time? how do you adjust? >> they look appalled, karen >> i am proud of her she is a nice woman. >> the crypt to currency is up
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again. but first, pete, what he thinks would be good for your portfolio. for over 30 years, lexus has been celebrating driveway moments. here's to one more, the lexus december to remember sales event. lease the 2021 is 300 for $339 a month for 36 months and we'll make your first month's payment. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. if you're concerned about the environment and climate change,
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welcome back to "fast money. looking for a marvelous new pick for your stock portfolio look no further. pete has a name. >> i am going to give you marvel technology what makes it interesting is we were talking about growth process and whether you want to be in growth or value. this company has done a lot of growth through acquisition the ceo has been there since 2016, done an unbelievable job there have been a couple of acquisitions in the $500 million range. but most recently, one he paid about $10 billion. they did that in cash and stock. but the other thing, this enhances everything they wanted to do, the sweet spot of semi n
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semiconductors everybody with 5g. this puts them in the sweet spot of that. but they have the cloud data center which has been a monster. they have everything they are looking for and have been doing everything fiscally disciplined, doing everything the right way what i mean is they cut back on what they were going to do with the repurchase plan. they have great cash flow. the fundamentals are solid i did buy it on the dip. around $38 a share i am in it and own this. i think i will be in it quite a while. i don't know if you have the chart up if you lock at the one year or go back five years, whatever you want to do, i think this is a stock going higher
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>> pete, love your pitch i am probably giving away my answer and i know you don't buy stocks for this reason given the environment he would find ourselves in with a $28 billion market cap, could marvel be an acquisition target by somebody >> they could. that would make sense. we have seen bigger boiites takn off. that's a possibility the only question left is who would make that move i don't have that answer, but i think this is a stock that could be an acquisition target >> time to vote, are you buying pete's pitch on marvel technology >> i am saying yes one interesting thing, cisco,
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which i think marvell is a supplier of cisco, so i think that bodes well in the short-term >> tim >> despite that awful baseball hat, it wasn't a baseball hat, i am going to boy this one i think there are great secular trends some argue not terribly cheap, but i like the forces at work to keep this stock well bid >> guy >> can you read that, mel, because i know you get some glare. >> it's still cheap in my opinion. given the world we find ourselves in, i think somebody might be looking to gobble them up >> the traders have clearly spoken it's your turn are you buying vote on our live poll at "fast
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money. we will reveal the answer later in the show. and what is the play now for krip t crypto baller. we will be back in two
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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin booming and crossing the $16,000 mark for the first time. it is not just traders getting bullish on digital currencies, but also saying the eu should be prepared for a digital euro. let's bring in our resident bitcoin baller brian kelly good to talk to you. >> especially on a day at 16,000 >> we have had notable investors endorse bitcoin, whether bill miller, you name it. i think it was either validation of bitcoin or competition for bitcoin. >> it's interesting. high profile investors come out and say they own it takes a lot of career risk away from investors, especially investor
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who want to put it in their portfolio. that's what we are seeing. in terms of the digital euro or dollar, it is not competition for bitcoin. i can't imagine the ecb issuing a digital currency that would have a fixed supply. i think it would make it easier for them to print more money i think those are more of a risk for currency holders and highlights why bitcoin is a digital like product >> can you forecast how high you think it can go? >> forecasting the future is very hard, believe it or not here is what i will say about it bitcoin has been above 16,000 i think 12 days in its entire history. i suspect there are people who
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bought in late 2017, 2018 who after a long three years are going to want to get out of it so i wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback but in the longer run, the market total value is 300 billion. the total value of all of the gold is 300 trillion 300 billion is the wrong number. there is a lot of scope for upside and add into that, if you look back at the happenings we talked about in the spring, where most of the gains come are the year after we are months after the year after the happening. >> so there could be five more months of pretty good upside b.k., thanks for calling in. we always like talking to you. >> i always like talking >> i think he hung up the phone
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and is still talking karen, you have a little bit of bitcoin. all of these big name investors saying yeah, i am in bitcoin now. >> a couple of other things, the papal news, square, right, having bitcoin that's interesting to me even j.p. morgan has a crypto desk and crypto product. remember, love jamie dimon, but at one point he said it was a fraud. i am still long. who knows where it goes. it is extremely volatile i believe in it for the long-term because i believe the theory and i think we will be printing more money one way or another. >> don't forget to vote in our twitter poll are you buying on marvell
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welcome back to "fast money. betting big ondraftkings ahead of earnings tomorrow but will the odds be in their favor. mike >> we did see more than two times as many calls as puts trades, that has been true for the last couple weeks. it is implied the stock will move about 9% higher or lower after earnings tomorrow morning. since it has to get above that, they are betting on more than 9% move to the upside after they report earnings. >> pete, how are you trading draft kings? >> i still own the stock, but based on what mike is saying, it is a great buy right i continue to sell upside calls against that because the
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premiums are extraordinary to mike's point, huge implied volatilities there >> tim >> if you bought it last week it was a great buy. if you bought it after a 45% pullback on a stock that i think will be a dominant player in an online sports betting industry, they are giving you steam. they are giving you some percent of the market they want. they are reporting 22 or 23% i think that's nothing where they are going i am long. i think the market is tough. >> tomorrow jason robins will be on the show to talk about that options action at 5:30 vote, vote, vote head to twitter and vote at bccn "fast money. we will reveal the answer later in the show. plus your final trades
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welcome back to "fast money. time to find out if the viewers at home were buying pete's pitch on marvell technology. this was a marvell-ous pitch
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they are buying it time for the final trade around the horn. tim seymour? what do you say for yourself >> great job i am a buyer gm on weakness. a story i think is catching a bid and is going higher. >> pete? >> i am going to stick with mrvl i like the pitch people like the pitch, i guess the stock is going higher. >> karen, what do you say? >> i wanted to use my white board again just as an artistic expression cisco. i am better with financial models than artistic models. cisco. >> guy >> deutsche bank should stay in their lane number one. don't at me, please.
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dan nathan chimed in and voted for pete's power pitch >> even dan likes it >> although i might rue the day, srpt was powerful. >> we will see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to educate you, but to entertain you.

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