welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. dom chu will join me in a moment we're up 1% today. and what more shutdowns can do for the economic recovery. one top analyst says despite rising risks, restaurants will be resilient he'll tell us the names he would

most like to buy he'll join us with that in just a moment "power lunch" starts right now welcome to "power lunch. i'm dominic zchu. the energy sector is leading the market higher and up around 16% for that sector, its best week ever, ever historic levels. first, it's a long, long 2020 for the group here, still down 45% for the year overall take a look at two of the big earnings winners you've got cisco up more than 6% and disney off the highs but still up 2% as its streaming service passes 73 million subscribers. in just the past two weeks, the dow is up nearly 11% for more on the markets now, let's go over to bob pisani with the latest bob. >> hello, dom. this week has been about the rotation from growth and momentum into value and cyclical

stocks, and that's playing out again today, very similar to what happened in the other four days just take a look here. good day for energy stocks, good day for bank stocks, good day for industrials. these had great runs this week ener energy's up 16%, banks up 12%, industriali industrials, 5%. some of the big mega tech names are down 3% or 4% but tech flat for the week you want to see what the market is anticipating? they're trying to figure out what it's going to look like in the springtime the refiners have been on fire this week. this week phillip 66 is up 25% this week. it means the market is anticipating an awful lot of people are going to start driving in the springtime. that's vaccine optimism right there. these stocks have been up every single day this week practically. meantime the work from home stuff, the stuff that we love to talk about, the amazons, the

etsys, c etsys, clorox was down 5%. they are trying to over look the valley of the winter and into the springtime a few weeks ago they were expected to rise 11% and now expected to rise 15% wall street wants to believe in the story at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter, we're going to see a real opening. it's a real weird dichotomy here between the intermediate term, which doesn't look very promising and the slightly longer term and wall street is choosing to believe right now the slightly longer term story, which obviously is a lot more optimist optimistic >> that's the only explanation that makes sense to me the earnings and economic recovery could still be pushed down the road till 2022.

nomura cutting forecasts fr here joining us is louis alexander. louis, it's good to have you let's begin with next year what are the main reasons why you have done this already based on what we know and how big are the down side risks at this point? >> before the election we were talking about fiscal support well over $2 trillion. i think now realistically you're looking at a phase four deal of something like $500 billion. that's 1.5 trillion defereniffe. that matters a lot >> interesting >> but the near term effects of covid are getting worse. that's the other fact. >> yeah, absolutely. i didn't mean to jump in there i'd like to hear you explain a little bit kind inform contrast to what the markets are doing right now, which as bob said is

looking through this winter and saying the vaccine is coming and we're going to kind of get back to normalcy. you know, tell me how you see the risks and kind of the if then, you know, how much of kind of the chicago style advisories do we need to see before that really starts to add up to something that's a bigger drag on growth? >> so first thing i'd say is we always expected we'd get to a point where covid was no longer a threat there's no question the vaccine is positive but it brings forward that recovery. it's not fundamentally anything different from where we thought we'd be at the end of 2022 what has changed more substantially is how much fiscal support we're going to have in the near term i just can't express we're moving into a world of divided government. if you look at how that's operated in the past, it's turned into substantial fiscal contraction. the good news about fiscal support over the last year has

been it's been very large and very front loaded. that also means it rolls off very quickly so i think the net effect to us of the combination of the vaccine news and what's going on in politics is negative for 2021 look, i get it that people are more optimist ek aboic about the vaccine and i agree that's positive over the immediate term but people shouldn't lose sight over how much the fiscal outlook has changed and will into next year >> as i think through the 2 trillion and $3 trillion figures that have been put out there in terms of the next stimulus bill, i'm just thinking about the dynamic that's already played out this year. the fed is buying so much of our treasury supply. does it matter in other words, if we fast forward to 2021 and we get this magic bullet for the economy,

which could be a $1 trillion or $2 trillion stimulus package, that's basically double what the fed is already supporting through its bond purchases at what point does that all have a meaningful economic effect or is it simply the larger the balance sheet, the more liquidity, the higher price in the new york city astock market we ever see about it >> the physical california is going to support spending more or less directly you have some direct spending on health care and those kind of things you're also seeing direct support from businesses and individuals. that's very important to mean t -- maintaining aggregate demand the support we had last year was great but it's rolling off a lot of unemployment benefits are scheduled to roll off at the end of this year i thisnk if we don't replace that, you're looking at a

contraction in activity. i think the fed can make sure long-run rates don't constrain the recovery we've had long-run rates run up over the last several weeks or so we think they will increase or make changes in the composition. obviously when we get the vaccine, when do we get to the point where covid-19 is no longer constraining economic activity it goi it's going to be important over the medium term. for the next six months or so, these other factors will be more importa important. >> fed chair jay powell said there's a risk of longer run damage to the productive capacity of the economy and the people's lives who have been disrupted by the pandemic. he refers to women leaving the

workforce, children falling behind in education, small businesses how does it manifest itself negatively in the coming months and quarters if that were to be the case >> so one question is just labor force participation. if you see people drop out of the labor force for an extended period of time, it's hard for them to get back in. we saw the risk is the longer the labor market remains depressed, the bigger the challenge it will be that's particularly an issue for women who have dropped out of the labor force more than men in part because of day care and those kinds of things. the problem with small business and the fact we're going to go through a very high level of business closures is another big could be strant. yes, there will be opportunities f on the other side of this but it takes time for those things to get going. the longer we're kind of in this hole the bigger those effects are, which is why i think the fed is so concerned about the next six months, even in an

environment where you may be more optimistic about the virus. the fed has talked a lot about the important of fiscal in this and i think they recognize they can help but what we really need is more fiscal support i think that's what the election has called into question >> washington in focus big again. >> thank you, lewis alexander. we appreciate it >> thank you >> the dow is up about 11% so far in november. that means it on track for its best month since april despite rising covid risks and fears of a slower economic recovery we just spoke about let's bring in the senior adviser er to schroaders yes, thank you both for being here perhaps, brian, i'll start with you. you just heard what louis alexander had to say about the economy. is this an economy that's forecast to be able to support a higher market, three, six, 12 months down the line >> thanks for having me.

and i do think this economy can support that it might be a choppy path getting there. i think that the key thing is we kind of have to get through a rather rough winter first before people start actually getting vaccinated, like pfizer is very encouraging, a lot of people revising up their expectations about not just where we can go for the next year but when that can start to happen. it's about ramping up economic activity sooner rather than later. that's one of the reasons why the markets responded so favorably to the pfizer news now we can think about with a significant amount of stimulus from the monetary side, maybe some slim down stimulus coming out on the fiscal side, that can really support a really brighter springtime for us. >> now, ron, it's been supportive for certain parts of the market, namely energy, namely financials.

it hasn't been so much for large cap technology or retail for that matter. how are we to believe this will be constructive overall for the market down the line i thought it was just five stocks that drove the entire market action these days >> well, yeah. dom, as you know, you're seeing that rotation trade, the recovery trade take over i thought louf is was spot on on the one hand wall street is working on liquidity but i think that divergence is going to be important. winter is coming and mom and pop stores and restaurants that are individually owned, you know, may well go out of business. you look at yelp and you see restaurantes rest restaurant reservations going down i'm much more concerned about main street than i am about wall

street this is anathema i'm concerned that wall street will walloped. i'm beginning to feel a double-dip recession will be the case in the fourth and fifth quarters of this year and next >> ron brings up an interesting point here if there were to be a protracted economic issue that pummels main street more than wall street, where is it that wall street will feel it more? what parts of the market overall? are we talking small and midcap companies, certain sectors and key industry groups? what happens if winter does come >> i think those are the areas you would see it most and worst would be the consumer oriented side you'd probably see it in the housing sector, in the durable

goods areas are whether it's buying washers, driers, automobiles, those big ticket items, especially things that typically need to be financed with income, if you have falling incomes or rising unemployment, that's the area that we would expect that you will probably see it first but, you know, we'd like to encourage people to kind of think about that and the market is looking at this, it's probably thinking more ahead towards, you know, let's say spring and summer where we can see a recovery i think a bit of an economic slowdown is currently priced in. to ron's point, i agree. i don't think the market is pricing a recession risks and it is a real risk if we do see more draconian lockdown measures being imposed as opposed to what we're kind of having now, which is a little bit of a relaxing or rolling back of some of those reopenings of the economy. so if it gets worse, then, yeah, we'll revise expectations but

right now expectations is that this is merely a slowdown as opposed to a rollover. >> if it takes a turn for the worse, does it stand to reason the existing trend over several years about people buying pullbacks in the likes of apple and microsoft and amazon and facebook, do all those trends continue >> well, i'm not sure about that yeah, probably because you're going to get the k composition of the economy you may get the w in terms of the recovery but the k will be the composition. those doing well will continue to do better and those who are doing bad will continue to do worse. that, again, reflects this huge gap between what's happening on wall street and what's happening on main street that k may be very much more important in the long run than the w. >> all right thank you guys very much for that we appreciate it kelly, over to you >> dom, let's get a quick check

on markets and headlines here from nbc nbc has called the presidential election in georgia for joe biden as the apparent winner nbc has also karld north carolina for donald trump as the apparent winner we want to emphasize the language, the dow hanging on to about a 321 point gain obviously in some ways this confirms a lot of the earlier reporting and different outlets have different methods here. but these have both just crossed the wires. we'll keep an eye on everything and bring more to you as we get it do you is up 324 check out shares of cheese cake factory. despite covid fierce, the restaurant rally has only just begun. plus we'll talk health care as hospitalizations hit records liri italk to one company

devengt directly to the wealthy. much more "power lunch" right after this

we're starting to see anxiety, depression. >> there's a debate happening all across america big travel for turkey or no? >> you're looking at 15 million people >> the newly elected house of representatives, among the class

welcome back as covid cases increase as a rapid pace across the country, businesses are facing a host of challenges our next guest thinks restaurants are better positioned to weather potential shutdowns this time around nick is a senior restaurant

analyst. he just upgraded cheese cake factory to outperform and raises targets on texas road house and darden cheese cake has been closing doors in a lot of places in the country. what's the bull case here? >> let's think about the fact they're at an average 50% capacity and their sales are only down 7% in october. so what a lot of our casual diners have learned, including cheese cake, is how to effectively, you know, do the off premise sales and at the same time the right side of the cost structure the liquidity levels across the board are at or above levels that, you know, these companies had going into february and march. so not only are they weathering, you know, the first rounds effectively, but they're ready to go into another round of

shutdowns. >> yeah. so tell me why you think restaurants in general are better prepared this time around >> well, off premise sales is the key. off premise sales is the key to digital, to delivery, everything from involving a labor force that's more effectively delivering for the higher off premise sales to even restructuring restaurants in such a way where off premise becomes more efficient we've seen across the board restaurants do almost the same level of sales last year on average 50% capacity right now >> which is astonishing. nick, is all this market share coming from local establishments from the mom and pops? >> it is mostly coming from independents, but it's across the board. in the case of cheesecake

specifically, we've seen more than 50% of current cheese cake locations, a nearby competitor, major competitor has shuttered its doors. and that's only after the shutdowns. if we do get a second wave, these well capitalized publicly traded companies that do survive will be in an position to take an even greater market share in post covid normalization >> and you have cheese cake factory, which we spoke about but also texas road house and darden why those two in particular? how much up side >> texas road house and darden, they're along with cheese cake among the best positioned restaurants within my coverage universe to take share in a most pos post-covid normalization we're seeing levels of -- waiting to start building units

again. both concepts are outperforming. texas roadhouse we saw positive comps at texas roadhouse believe it or not. we just think those two concepts, along with cheese cake now are poised to be the three biggest market share gainers in the post covid world >> wow it's amazing that they could have positive year-on-year comps at this point. again, it could be a difficult couple of months but it points to some momentum nick, thanks so much dom? >> coming up on the show, leaving the market higher today and on track for one of its best weeks ever is that about to heat up and historic week for pfizer as its vaccine candidate for covid-19 is 90% effective and wealthy americans are already vying for the first shot we've got details on that story,

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energy swept up in a rally, rewarding stocks tied to the economic growth story, even with u.s. covid cases on the rise and the threat of further lockdowns looming. the sector is still the worst s&p 5 hup perfo00 performer thi the wide margin. for whether you can trust the bounce or not, craig johnson of piper sandler. is energy beaten up as much as it has been a good buy right now, a value pick? >> yeah, dom it's good to see you i think yes if you're a trader that rally in the xle has lined up with the rally in oil the largest holding in the xle is chevron when you look at historic performance, the xle over the last ten years is down about 4.2% annually versus positive 13% for the s&p and positive 2.3% for chevron so i would be looking at maybe

buying something like a chevron for a trade. chevron and the xle have been in our buy range for years. they're not cheap, they're terminal think cheap i would view this as a sikim ju s sik -- as a cyclical trade but not a fundamental that i would want to hold on to >> if they are buys for that long yet they have underperformed, what can the charts tell us about whether this is a buyable bounce for energy >> this is going to be more or less a short covering rally from our perspective. it's great we made a higher low in here and we've done that before and only turned around and failed this chart for the xle is below, the longer term trend is still

very much in a secular decline, as nancy as said and with chevron and exxon representing 45% of this index and those charts aren't showing any sign of a turn around at this point in time, i would largely view this as a relief valley and a short covering rally and i would look to be reducing positions in the energy space at this point in time. >> an interesting note here, the entire energy sector in the s&p 500 is only worth about 2% of the index. that puts it about the same realm as facebook as a company nancy, craig, thank you guys very much for that for more on "trading nation" head to our web site or follow us on twitter @trading nation. more coming up >> coming up demand spike in a concierge service. we will lay out what are some are said to be covid proof picks

and the stock that's going alon for the ride

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welcome back, everybody, i'm sue herera with your cnbc news update lawyers from the trump campaign have withdrawn a suit reallatedo the so-called sharpy g ate, tha votes marked with sharpies were not being counted. the suit was rendered unnecessary. a state court has rejected a republican request to block the certification of votes in detroit which went heavily in favor of president-elect joe

biden. governor whitner taking legal action to shut a key pipeline carrying oil beneath the channel linking lake michigan and lake huron. environmentalists say it's vulnerable to a rupture that would devastate both lakes and it's the hind you've festival of lights that's being celebrated in this village anyway with 584,000 oil lamps. that is enough to set a new guinness world record. >> having been in india, it is a beautiful time that is our news update, kel i'll send it back to you >> we had a fireworks incident a few years back, sending them off a little too close to the other houses but it's very, very fun. i agree. sue, thank you >> let's check on markets. you're near session highs, the do you up 379 points, s&p up 40, nasdaq 71, small caps up as

well oil market closing for the day what's the story there rahel? >> crude criprices are taking ai and the covid rising cases brent is down about 1.6%, wti crude settling down around 2.2%. both wgi and brent still, however, on pace for a second straight positive week, also on track to finish up more than 8% after the positive pfizer news about the efficacy of a potential covid vaccine. >> one thing people are getting concerned about once we do finally get that coronavirus vaccine that rahel just mentioned is access to it. who gets it? who gets it first? and will those doses go to who can pay for it and pay the most for it we joined more to talk about

concierge medical services it's a very big story. >> concierge medicine has seen huge growth. they've been able to offer patients 24/ 7 care and treatment. now concierge doctors are getting flooded with calls from new and existing clients asking for early access to this vaccine. now, the companies say they're going to follow all the rules of the cdc, whatever the government guidance is, but they also say they are working hard with their connections to pharfarpharma cos

and they tell me they're looking into costs for special freezers to spare the vaccine in freezers the supply and demand, you know there's going to be a lot of money chases these early doses back to you. >> yeah. we're going to talk about that right now, robert. stick around joining us to discuss the rising demand for private health care is the co-founder of a health care concierge company andrew, it's good to have you. what's the language around vaccinations and your clinic is this something you expect to offer to people and expect to be able to deliver to them? >> thanks for having me on the show it's still very early days for the vaccine and for everything that we're learning about the vaccine. what we're trying to do with our medical experts in house is to fully understand the data and the efficacy of the vaccine once it's available and then as it becomes available through the

cdc and through pfizer directly, we want to make sure we're fighting for members of our practice to give them access to the vaccine that will be best for their care >> for everybody who doesn't know, that includes me, how concierge health services work, this is basically people paying per month or per year is it? and what do they get in return >> so we operate a concierge medical service that includes 24/7 private medical centers in new york and los angeles and a health care service in the new york tristate area, new york met poll contin -- metropolitan area and the hamptons it includes unlimited access and visits with our physicians and blood tests onsight, covid tests

on site and advocacy if they need specialists in the health care system. people who sign up for concierge care are people considerate about their health and looking to make sure they're getting exlene excellent medical care and with a good level of customer service. >> it's robert frank thanks so much for joining us today. when i talk to a lot of c concierge medical companies, they say they're going to follow all the rules and protocols and but are others that won't. will we hear of billionaires getting the vaccine early? through which channels do you think they can get ahold of the early doses? >> look back to covid testing. certainly for the members of our practice, we as entrepreneurs and members of the private sector were fighting hard to get

covid testing as quickly as possible so on the back of that, we were able to find labs as early as in march where we could generate 24 to 48-turn around times for covid tests we wanted to provide the best level of medical care to the members of our practice, to our patients. we developed a robust treatment protocol around that so we could care for people in home and try to reduce burden on the health care systems by managing people's covid in the home as a result we had a much lower level of hospitalization and we had a very positive clinical outcomes for our patients who had covid. now as it turns to the vaccine, it's going to be similar all of us want to do only what is right for the community at large for americans and for citizens of the world, but equally, we want to use our commercial know how to try to help get this vaccine distributed. and the more that we can help work with pharmaceutical companies and medical distributors to make the

vaccines more readily available for the patients in our practice and beyond, the better off for everybody. so we're certainly going to be trying to do that. >> drew and, really quickly, before we let you go, how big is the kons yarn mconcierge medical expected to be in the next two, three, five years. to people sign up because they think down the line you'll give them better access to medical cases, drugs, vaccines, et cetera >> at the moment we think there are about 3 million americans who buy the concierge product, which are 3 to $10,000 a year for a membership what we've seen is certainly an uptick in memberships. that uptick in memberships isn't specifically because people think we're going to provide with better access to the vaccine but they know they're getting a team of health care professionals who will work tirelessly to try to provide them with the best possible medical outcomes around covid or any medical issue. i think what's happened with

covid over the last six months is it's accelerated a lot of trends that were already happening in health care that's essentially that people are becoming more koconscientio about their health and looking to get service through nontraditional corridors, being treating in the home if they can. >> thank you guys very much for that big story there for sure in concierge medicine we've got a news alert on tiktok kayla tausche has those details. good afternoon, kayla. >> the treasury department is putting out a statement at this hour saying it is allowing an additional 15 days for tiktok and bite dance to find a corporate structure to operate in the united states that satisfies national security concerns that essentially puts the deadline at the friday after thanksgiving for these companies to find a transaction that satisfies the concerns of those in the trump administration. remember, they had previously

announced a deal with oracle, but there were concerns that the ownership structure was not majority enough that it would allay some of those national security concerns. earlier this week we did see a notice from the department of commerce saying it would not be moving forward with a ban on tiktok downloads in the united states pending further legal developments and the treasury statement makes clear that the commerce, as and the treasury pursuit of some sort of deal are the ruesults of separate orders there's an august 6th and august 14th executive order. there's a lot to follow here i think the bottom line is that we have another 15 days for a potential tick tock deal before that ban could potentially move forward. >> we know you'll be all over that story we'll come back to you with more details. >> we await a vaccine. millions american continue to work from home or work remotely.

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kelly. >> all right,do dom, thank you. the dow is up 1.3%, now nearly 400 points s&p up just more than 1% and nasdaq lagging the stocks counting on a vaccine are sharply higher carnival crews, delia air and six flags talking about gains of 6 to 6.5%. pelle done, zoom and wayfair all in theed t ro the tune of 6.7% stay with us

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to the bond market we go this hour. rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. how are we closing out the week? >> we're closing out the week on a strong note. look at intra day of 10s as we sit at 89 basis points, up one on the day remember, this is a day where headline ppi was higher than expected, michigan preliminary november was super weak but their inflation numbers were getting stronger if you open the chart up for one week, we're up seven basis

points on the week so all maturities are up on the week, only long dated are up on the day. let's open the chart up to september 1st. if you'll notice september how flat the changes are, look at how aggressive it's gotten the last seven weeks the ken etic energy will be bearish. we rofri we're who having at levels on the yuan, not far off the august lows that went back to april of 2018 >> rick santelli thank you very for that. retail stocks are heading higher today. walmart and target are higher. even big are gains for kohl's and nordstrom.

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welcome back walmart, target, and several other notable retailers are reporting earnings next week the group is facing huge uncertainty as covid cases are on the rise across the country joining us now to talk about which names are in the best shape heading into winter is tim seymour of see more asset management, also a cnbc contributor and fast money trader let's talk about whether or not any of these retailers are positioned well for what's ahead. >> i think walmart is the best positions because i think it is a stock that has proven its -- you are playing defense in terms of covid trends. online growth grocery, 40% of online grocery but 10 million households, appealing to a millennial audience it's the a case where you have a lot of the dynamics that come with an e mers walmart they have a good rating but at

around 23 times, it is not cheap. people are, analysts are and i would be putting more of a hybrid multiple on this stock based upon growth in e-commerce. i think it is an offensive and defensive stock both here. >> tim, how much how much is e-commerce for a company going to be a main driver of its stock success. they all mention double digit percentage returns when it comes to omnichannel and digital specifically, which ones are the best of breed? >> well, you know, it's really interesting. as you bring that up and you mention omnichannel and mention digital one of the stories that's beaten up for next week is macy's. digital sales are up ah 53%. jeff ginnet has really invested in digital they are almost relying upon the digital channel. their deal with door dash means

they may be actually able to play in that space i think the digital story at macy's is more important on some level than it is for other retailers. we mentioned walmart home improvement names next week, lowe's and home depot where digitate isn't as integral >> specifying lowe's and home depot they have been a pandemic i guess beneficiary with more people working to improve their homes. can we expect this to continue if the virus continues home depot and lowe's outperformance will? >> i think the trends here are extraordinary around housing we know what's going on in this country. not just the migration out of urban centers and whatnot. but the housing shortage home prices are up 5.5%. when you have a case ask you look at where low rates are allowing people to invest in their homes and you look at the move this the entire space i

think there is a lot to do here and i think the valuations aren't extended. >> tim seymour thank you very much we will into you on "fast money" soon i'm sure. a wild week of trading wrap up j just about another hour, we will get you set up for the final 60 minutes of trading. the dow is up just about 460 points watch or listen to us live on the go using the cnbc app. we are back after this quick break. hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like... like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most plus $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade

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at indeed.com/home. welcome back so in the bottom corner of your screen right there you are seeing the dow up 405 points kelly, that is the best level for the dow so far today highs of the session i will note this our data team is crunching through the numbers. blev it or not, kelly, this is right now, with these gains, putting the dow on pace for its best month going all the way back to the beginning of 1987. best pace, if it keeps up, kelly, that's pretty big. >> shocking. if you want to know about catalysts this past hour we did get nbc calling the presidential election georgia and income, georgia for biden and north carolina for trump. barring any change to the

outcome there as we go through the final states and the challenges dom, it's interesting that this comes a day after choj's lockdown advisory that is being totally slugged off. >> et cetera crazy, too, that the stocks we are seeing perform the best today are the ones that benefit from an economic recover roe. we will continue to watch, kelly, the travel and tourism stocks as well. >> bingo dom have a great weekend thank for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you kelly and dom and welcome, every, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost. stocks looking to finish up a volatile week on a high note the major afternoons all rising today. dow is up 400 points, session highs as we head into the close. let's look at what's driving the act. strong earnings from dow components cisco and disney. home deowe poe set to report next week. energy sector is jumping up 15% on the week the u.s. continues t