good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. the dow hitting an all-time highs a thigh as the record rally goes on, as

moderna says its vaccine is nearly 95% effective moderna up 9%, 10% right now while the other vaccine stocks are actually dipping we are awaiting president-elect bide wren to give remarks about state of the economy after meeting with top business leaders and ceos today we'll get you there when it happens as "power lunch" starts right now. thank you, ty. the dow was soaring to all-time highs, just shy of 30,000 today. all signs pointing to a continued rally except for one, a very important one let's go to bob pisani for more on that. bob? >> we are seeing that moderna is helping the market overall and continuing a trend that we saw for the last really week and a half let's take a look at the sectors here the story is value-like banks and energy stocks has been

outperforming growth areas like technology for example nen we've seen cyclical sectors like industrials, for example. generally outperforming defensive sectors like consumer staples. generally small caps have been outperforming big caps in is this is a big, big move that we've seen a lot of money is sloshing around between these different categories you can just see what's going on in november. i'll give you a quick overview of what's been happening here. american express up 30%, chevron up 26%, jpmorgan up 18%, caterpillar. these are all cyclicals/value stocks that are all rallying on the hopes that we're going to be able to see over the covid winter valley that we have here in the next few months and into what i call the reopening spring of 2021. that's what that's been all about for the last several days

pee here we've seen big moves up in some of these reits recently. simon property group was $62, $78 today. last week we saw an astonishing rally in all of the refiners it's like everyone decided to take a vacation in the spring of 2021 there's holly, a big refiner this is in six or seven trading sessions it's up 30% take a look at some of the other groups a little bit of weakness might be surprised to see some of the big pharma names, all a bit on the weak side overall quite a rally and still continuing back to you. >> thank you, bob pisani today's market rally brought to you by moderna it says its covid-19 vaccine is

95% effective. meg? >> that met a very big high rate last week. the way they get the efficacy figure, they look at how many cases they saw in the trial. 95 people had covid, five received placebos. they also looked at severe cases of covid-19 and saw 11 in the trial, none of which were among the people who got the vaccine it suggests the vaccine is effective against the really bad cases. they said they saw no significant safety concerns. they won't be easy vaccines to take there are two shots and did property levels of fatigue,

muscle and joint pain after the second shot. and the question will turn to supply moderna said it should have 20 million bostodoses in the unite states by the end of 2020 and 500 million to a billion available next wreeyear this is a two-shot vaccine we talked about why they could affect capacity. >> the reason we are not able to make a billion dollars right away is this is our first commercial product we did not have the older it technologies, manufacturing capacity already built we had to build everything this year the good news is that we will be ready with manufacturing capacity and also want to engage with governments to see how we can do more work to get prepared >> i don't know if you caught there, he said "the next

outbreak" because there will be more that's scary to think about. still unanswered questions about these vaccines, including do they protect against infection completely or just symptom atic decemb decemb disease? how long does the protection last >> how long do the vaccines maintain their ability to inoculate you from the disease is there anything in the data we've seen so far that even goe to those things? i sure didn't see it on friesfriese pfizer >> biontech --

>> would that mean that this, like the flu virus, would be something you'd have to get a vaccine for every year potentially? >> possibly. if the vaccine protection is -- wears off after about a year you are might have to greta booster shot every year. it's not the same reason we have to get a flu shot every year that's because the strains change it could be a similar situation where we have to get a booster >> or if it becomes so subdued it not a risk, maybe you wouldn't have to get a booster either >> the dow on track for its first record closing high since, drum roll, february 12th on these vaccine hopes that continue to drive the market for more on where we go next, let's bring in greg branch and larry adam, chief investment at raymond james. greg, bob pisani was just outlining what he i think was saying was a rotation in the

market away from big tech or tech and towards some of the more unloved sector do you thin that's a trend, an indicator of what's coming into 2021? >> i do see that 2021 is likely to look a lot like 2010 to 2012 looks, where we saw cyclicals value go faster off of a bottom than tech looks. sure enough, consensus next year expects tech to grow around 15% while it expects the broader s&p minus tech to grow at 35%. it's hard to maintain a premium multiple when other sectors are growing much faster than tech or typical growth is. now is a great time to go value shopping, look to things that are on sale that have driple

dig digit. >> we're talking banks, we're talking energy and some of those unloved ones, but, larry, you are say tech is no wreck and is a good place to put some money, even at today's valuations and you're not persuaded that the value play is ready to roll. >> no, i still prefer the stay-at-home names as opposed to the reopening trade. first of all, this economy is going to struggle over the next couple of months i think that's going to be more hurtful to those more economically sensitive sectors i think fiscal stimulus is going to happen at the beginning of next year. if you look at the history of what happened with the first stimulus, what was it spent on technology and health care i'm not in agreement when it comes to valuations. when you look at some of the valuations of the reopening trades, airlines and hotels don't have earnings projected

for next year. restaurants in the 80th percentile you get much better valuation still because those earnings have kept pace with some of the price action that you've seen. >> greg, you want to respond to larry? >> i do actually so stock picking and sector picking is important i am not arguing for any whole sale by volume there are certain consumer discretionaries trading at half their historical average in terms of valuation stock picking is important he brings up a good point. airlines is not something investigated, but there are business models with we can see

what their business will look like next year, where they'll swing from a loss to earnings and dividend on the low end of the spectrum next year money. >> larry, you point to -- go ahead, larry let he finish it up with you we just showed some airlines, some cruise lines, et cetera they must be moving up purely, i would say, purely on the vaccine hopes and will the vaccine plus stimulus equal a very nice 2021 for stocks >> i'm optimistic longer term on stocks i think you will have an earnings rebound i think once we get through that first quarter and we do have access to the vaccine, i think that will help with the recover moe are bro more broadly i think we're setting up for a pretty good 2021 i would think there's still some

other catalyst out there don't forget, you got 5g, e commerce growing for health care, we're going to be fighting this disease for a while. the good news is that they're some of the biggest sectors within the s&p 500 so it should tib to drive it higherin i'm getting frustrated with my 5g i have the phone for a long time but i don't seen to have the service why. >> airline stocks among the beneficiaries of today's news. phil >> they're all up between 3, 4, 5, 6%. it's been a nice day for the airlines how nice is today? compare this over the last six months and you can see because of the optimism that a vaccine may be coming soon, all of the airline stocks are nearing where they were back in june remember, there was that push in june where you saw them all come

back, have a nice little snap back they're still far from where they were prepandemic, but we are seeing these stocks close to where they are in june down 65% for the month of november so far. that's a modest improvement compared to where they are the first half of october. this is sort of this period here where the holidays, they have to do a little bit better because we know what the air travel situation is like in january, february and early marchby the way, international demand because of of the resurgence of covid cases, especially in europe, you're seeing airlines starting to cancel some of those flights between new york and europe or other destinations in the u.s. and europe. but the airline index, it is also near that june high so there is optimism out there that perhaps this is the, you know, the good news. >> did southwest i think give some commentary about that

today, phil, about demand softening? >> that was last week. that was last week last week they said that last week they indicated they are noticing a deceleration. not a reversal but a deceleration in bookings when you look at let's say between thanksgiving and that's not a surprise given what we've seen with covid-19 resuck ebd and some might say i'm just not comfortable taking a the trip. >> totally we seal if if it gets any worse before it gets much better phil lebeau on the airlines today. ty >> coming up next are energy is and moderna rallying on a what

they've been saying is more than 95% effective. more "power lunch" coming right up today's ways of working may work differently tomorrow.

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i bet price target might need adjusting or your stance on the company. this is a company that raised a lot of eyebrows with some of the ceo stock sales and other things this is their first commercially viable drug. the deck was stacked against them is that why you say this is a home run >> great to be here with you, kelly. one thing is the platform had never been proven out before and there was enormous amounts of skepticism about moderna's technology, so the fact that these two guys both came out with spectacular data and huge studies i think really says something about the platform and is way above anyone's expectations >> so now if you're a moderna investor, they had always said that financially speaking a company like pfizer had less to

benefit from a vaccine than one look moderna because it's their only horse now does it suggest to you that the platform should bear fruit for drugs in other comings years and if that's the case, is this a stock you can buy in anticipation of that >> i think there are going to be two interesting thing to play out in the long term, one is what do the other vaccines that are n-- what are the efficacy levels what is the thinking around how those will be used certainly we'll have a view on the overall potential for this vaccine and the second is whether that implies the robust efficacy levels that this technology can do for other vaccines or other therapies i think is hugely important. both of those themes coming together tells you there should be other drugs in the pipeline and could those drugs and therapies be much better than

other technologies >> yeah. would you be a seller of pfizer and especially biontech? >> i this both of those companies and efficacy levels are similar. i think both will take a leadership and large market share. i do think that the other vaccines that are coming, astrazeneca, j & j, the antibody levels are lower than some of the other technologies if they are meaningfully lower, what does the market share mean for the other guys that's going to be the big move on the stock let's see how the other guys play out >> so for people who go, okay, i missed the pfizer pop, i missed the moderna pop, what's the next pop that's coming?

we talk about earnings, what's the whisper nulmber what's the whisper in the community about what we're expected to see? >> look, astrazeneca and others are around 89, 90% i think we believe that's very close good enough. if these are at 80, 85%, the question is who would use one at 80%, 85% versus 95%. if ten more people get covid, that's would be terrible and what's the price difference, $10, $20 we can debate what the numbers look like. if there's something south of 85%, there's going to be a lot of questions about how to use it >> i had people saying why would i use pfizer if i could get

moderna. but would you agree that people aren't going to have a choice of what they take it going to be if you have one that's at all effective, you just take it >> i agree in general with that. just to be clear, we had some numbers around the capacity. there's hundreds of hundreds of millions that would be available. if you only had moderna and pfizer, they're plenty enough for the united states and most countries astrazeneca, there are areas where that could be used and certainly areas and regions where that would be amenable i appreciate what scott says i definitely think that's true you can find the large majority of it, if those others are material >> especially once the capacity is fully on board. michael, thanks, really appreciate it today. >> still ahead, retail stocks jumping today on those vaccine hopes. check out the department stores.

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it's the complementary nature of those markets to what we do. >> on what this deal could mean for your portfolio, let's bring in the trading nation team galilea gina, it comes after shares of black rock have been unloaded in may. >> while they're giving up massive margins which come with

black rock, they're still buying into a high-margin business. it opens up texas, alabama, florida, colorado, new mexico and arizona. so this is a really interesting buy for them >> and your thoughts on the performance of regional banks versus larger ones this year >> i think the regionals and the large banks are emblematic of the bear market and key risk areas that was suffered between 2018 and 2020 and are now reversing higher so i think for the market as a whole, this is very bullish, it represents a market now firing on all cylinders the train has definitely left the station on this one, dealing with near term overbought conditions we have a market weight position on the industry and think it can continue to rally with this broad market breakaway speaking in terms of some levels for this etf, there was a gap in

the chart created last week at $44 when it moved to the up side i think that's the new floor as far as the up side is concerned, we see runway to $55, which is more or less where the stock -- the etf started to break down ahead of the covid collapse >> understood. ari and gina, thank you. for more, follow us on twitter >> seema, thank you very still ahead, we'll continue to monitor this market rally. the dow was up about 460 points at the highs, hanging on to a 350-point game the s&p up 28, the nasdaq up 60. and joe biden is expected to speak any moment now and retail is up 20%. and look at energy, the whole sector surging, oil up 3%, stocks are up 6% more in a minute

stay with us

i'm dominic chu. here is your cnbc update at this hour philadelphia is banning all indoor gatherings, public and private, to slow the spread of covid-19 and gyms and museums must close. following the city's announcement, the philadelphia eagles of the nfl said no fans will be allowed at home games. texas a&m's football team will not play due to the oncoming quarantine of some of the program. they could see their game against ole miss rescheduled for december 19th.

new york city's tourism industry could take four years or more to fully recover from the pandemic the city's tourism board says international travelers will be the slowest to return. and playing video games, yes, can be good for your mental health researchers at oxford looked at two games and found a small but significant benefit. that is your cnbc news update for this hour. tyler, i would say the games are animal crossing and plants versus zombies i don't play either of them. >> i don't know that my son plays either of them, but if it generally applies, his mental fitness is way up there thanks to the games >> you got it. >> if it's nba2k, it's great let's look at the industrials, up, s&p 500 about 4/5 of a% and 57 points higher, moderna's

vaccine news the cat lialyst th, oil closing and up 11% since the start of last week on the pfizer and moderna vaccine news that may suggest that people may get out, travel more, fly more, increasing demand for crude. kelly. >> tyler, it's a big week for retail earnings among the many names we'll hear from, department stores try to replace in-store sales for ecommercia e-commerce to retail sales bert bertha >> analysts are looking for a

loss for ckohl's tomorrow. they're going to be watching for a continued momentum in digital and signs that kohl's is able to rein in shipping costs which hit margins last quarter holiday is normally peak for digital sales. she expects the company's mix of casual and home to be strong macy's saw digital sales grow more than 50% in the second quarter but analysts say there are signs the retailer's digital penetration moderated over the summer and analysts at ubs say google's search growth from macy's and bloomingdale's was down 23% last month. ceo jeff geanette say consumers will treat themselves while they're stuck at home. >> this is going to be such a tricky period to talk about and cover retail you have the stocks basically looking to six months from now and the vaccine starts to get

diss disseminat disseminated it's really confusing. and, frankly, i think it's probably confusing somewhat to the retailers themselves to try to figure out what to do >> yeah, they have a long way to go i think they are all very much positioned for mostly e-commerce shopping during the holidays kohl's ceo said that's their peak time. that's what they really need to concentrate on now even before this, the department stores were not doing that great. people were shopping elsewhere specialty boutiques and online so this in some ways is a way to sort of retool for a new era where people want a mix of both. >> yeah. bertha, thank you very bertha coombs covering retail for us

ty >> the growing spread of covid-19 across the u.s. has put pressure on already cautious consumers. a new report from jpmorgan shows spending on chase cards fell significantly in early november, especially in states being hit hard by the virus. here now to discuss is jpmorgan's senior economist jesse edgerton good to have you with us tell us what you found by reelk -- region, by spending category and overall. what kind of dip are we talking about? >> a dip of a few percentage points at this point over the last week or two we're tracking a panel of about 30 million card holders of chase branded credit and debit cards across the country and in the data through november 9th, those numbers had fallen by about 4 percentage point from where they were a week prior in the week ending november 2nd. it is true that those declines were bigger in some of the states where the virus is

spreading most rapidly, places like north dakota, wisconsin, minnesota, spending down like 7 percentage points. basically in almost every state, we were seeing negative numbers with some declienes in spending. >> unfortunately, november 2nd -- let me just interrupt you if i might, jesse. you said the prior data was the week ending november 2nd something happened on november 3rd and then some more things happened >> yes, it did >> so i wonder beyond covid worries as it comes up over 100,000 a day, it meant more people were staying home longer, paying attention to the contest. >> we certainly wonder the same. it's hard to discern the underlying trend from these

daily data we're getting over the last month here we have seen some very fairly big jumps in both directions where we had a big jump up in spending and then things had dropped back to things that looked a little more normal, a little bit before halloween. they we have this perhaps seasonal or id yiosyncratic mov around the holiday and it hard to distinguish what happens happening exactly. if we look exactly at the day-to-day data, it looks like the very most recent days that we got, november 8th and november 9th, were pretty weak that's getting a little bit late to try to blame that on the election >> it's so amazing that you get these kind of data and who better than you all to know because you're tracking it every single day you know exactly how much has been spent, where and fundamentally by whom. so as we look at your data and

compare it with other things that are out there, whether it's open table or whatever, do your -- do those data confirm what you're finding? >> i would say many of them do the data never all speak with one voice. we have seen some softening over the last couple weeks in some of those numbers like open table restaurant diners, but then also some of the transit indicators like the number of people riding the subway in new york, the number of people going through airports, the google and transit numbers have softened in the last couple of weeks, which is telling about the same message as our card spending data. on the other hand, some of the more traditional data like initial claims for employment insurance have been falling every week we're kind of back in this position where the alternative data are telling a little bit of a different story than traditional data right now money. >> as you look at today's spending numbers versus the spending numbers let's say in

early february, how much off are we how much decline has there been or do you happen to know off the top of your head >> we're still down about 7% from where we were last year at this time, whereas in february we were more like up at 10%. so we're definitely still kind of down from where we would think normal would be. but on the other hand of course we have come a long ways back from where we were at the very bottom in march and april when we were down something more like 40%. we were kind of getting close to getting back to that zero line and now we've just seen this dip again of a couple percentage points in the last week or so. >> it's like a doctor watching your temperature it's worth watching at this point. je jesse edgerton, thank you.

kelly. >> ylan. >> republican governor sanders said i don't want to turn over management of the money supply to a congress and a president who can't balance the federal budget we had been expecting shelton's none nation to get a final vote on the senate floor sometimes this week. right no it appears there would be three republican senators who would vote against her nomination however, she could still potentially move forward if the vice president came in to break a tie of 50-50 within the senate clearly this is going to be a very close call with gop senator lamar alexander now saying he opposes her nomination to the fed. kelly. >> wow so it's up to pence. what do we expect in terms of

the timing here, ylan? >> it's unclear. we had been told for a vote to happen sometimes this week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow or wednesday but it has not yet been added to the calendar we saw the senate majority leader advance her nomination last week. he previous said he would not do that unless he was sure she could win that final confirmation we'll see if any other senators make their voices heard. >> interesting ylan, a potentially consequential move by senator alexander there. thank you very the s&p gaining nearly 1% and getting within 18 points of its all-time high. the dow within just a few points of 30,000 for the first time and energy, as you can see there, is the leadership and this is coming off of its best week ever, adding another 6% today. industrials, materials also rallying tech in the middle of the pack and health care the laarggd,

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news of moderna's vaccine trial. obviously the reopening stocks are heading higher today we showed you airlines earlier, hotel chains are rallying as well, marriott, hilton, hyatt. there you see them up by 2% or better in most cases hilton by 1 1/3. expedia and bookings holding are up as well trip adviser up a penny. the ipo pipe is a big deal and we could see a flood of deals. we're all waiting for it, airbnb we'll expect the big deals coming up on "power lunch.

lunch. the already hot 2020 ipo market is about to heat up even further in final few weeks year. 184 ipos have already raised more than $63 billion. that's the second highest total in a decade according to renaissance capital. airbnb could file as soon as this week. it is expected to go public sometime in december the global rental lodging site currently valued at around $18 billion. with us now, the head of research at manhattan venture partners an early investor in airbnb. it is good to have you

my understanding there was some urgency on airbnb's part related to employee stock options expiring in order to get this out the door is there another explanation that would tell you why it needs to be done before year en. other than that, i think the company was ready. they wanted to do it lost year it got pushed out for one reason or the other that's definitely one of the big runs, the internal operational reason more than that, i think the company is ready at this point the setup is right yes, conditions are kind of just picking up but the vaccine on the way, election out of the way, and the company just picking up, a lot of data to support the fact there are a lot of green chutes, lot of the way we are vacationing now, staying longer, going the remote areas, and thing like that, they are all playing right into airbnb's hands. so i think the setup is right. i think this is the right time to get out >> what tells you that airbnb is

going to be a better offer than the likes of uber and lyft, especially if you take the last monday and what they had to do at the ballot box out of the equation these were tough ipos with a lot of hype before they went public. airbnb is very much the same why should investors buying into the ipo or after expect they will continue to enjoy nice gains. >> i think that's a very good point. i don't think there is a lot of hype around airbnb it is a name that everyone knows. they feel and touch it most of them have done an airbnb somewhere or the other people know about it i don't think the valuation has been hyped up at all it is pretty reasonable. at one point it looked like it would go to around $50 billion the run rate that it was everything has been pulled back. it is more rational at this point. the revenue also probably fall from $4.5 billion down to about $2 billion and change this year, and will start picking up. we won't see normalized earnings

or revenues until 2022, for sure but i think there is going to be a nice progression to that point. most of the countries in the far east have opened up. olympics is coming up, a lot of high-profile events are coming up that play into airbnb's hands. the setup is right, like i said. the valuation is very reasonable if it comes around $30 billion and it is not unreasonable, even on a multiple of sales times, it is not that big. airbnb is very reasonable. >> your point about the valuation is well taken. it is down considerably from what it was at its peak. i know you guys in general -- you invested in lyft, i believe. not because of any concerns you might have had about uber specifically but because you like pure plays. door dash is a pure play what are your thoughts about door dash, which is also on verge of being public? >> door dash is amazing, the s 1 numbers were amazing we expected that

they are the biggest beneficiary this covid situation, so i think they benefitted, and the numbers show it. but more than that, it is a very well run company, nice presence. and they are not spread out too thin they are managed very well the costs are very well controlled so they are doing very well. and of course revenues are going to moderate going further out but you are going the see them pick up as well. that's the way we are, it is here to stay ordering is here to stay, delivery is here to stay, just like the airbnb's rentals are here to stay i think these are long term trends, secular trends, not just the fad of the year or the month. but they are going to be here for the long run and door dash and airbnb are perfectly positions to capitalize on that >> all right we will leave it there we appreciate checking in with you. we will do so again once we get more information on airbnb and the others could be a busy end of the year.

ty. as we await president-elect biden's statement on the economy, it is a record-setting day for the dow. can it hit 30,000? we have got an hr ouleft to go we will see. we are about 166 points away before money, people traded goods. tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited

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well, kelly, we are awaiting vice president-elect harris and president-elect biden who will

talk about the economy from their encamp men down in wilmington, delaware as we do that, we will wrap up the market so far as we know it at 3:00 eastern time the dow industrial still up 300 points. look who is leading the way. a couple of down trodden stocks of this year, boeing and self ron. it has been a very good couple of days for energy stocks, counter-intuitively. >> best week of the year they had last week. up another 6% the sector is today. i wanted to highlight casper since we were just speaking about ipos and in all the anticipation around airbnb we just got door dash's s 1. look at casper this is a recent ipo it ipo'd around $14. it is down 17% today this is a mattress company, with all the demand for housing this year there has been a mattress shorting, not the kind that casper makes temper, sealy, they have been doing great. not so much for this one.

>> way down, cut in half or more from its ipo price i guess people are staying at home maybe they are not sleeping. who knows? it is kind of crazy. but it has been interesting to see how some of the stay-at-home stocks seem to be a little out of favor and some of the other stocks like the hotels have been doing better today kelly? >> yes last monday it was a one-day trend. we'll see if this time is different. tyler, thank you we will see you tomorrow thanks, everybody, for watching pledge "closing bell" starts right now. >> it certainly does welcome to the "closing bell," i'm with will along with sara eisen. stop me if this sounds familiar a. monday, a vaccine breakthrough, and stocks are zooming higher though not zoom itself for another monday in a role let's look at what's driving the action the positive data from moderna on its vaccine candidate adding fuel to the fire in the rotation trade. stillcals continue their