tv Power Lunch CNBC November 17, 2020 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
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tesla getting set to take off. and tesla is up 9 today. we're going to take a look at the growing musk empire. and booming sales at walmart and home depot but the stocks not getting that same boost today. "power lunch" starts right now >> welcome once again to power lunch, i'm john fort boy, it's hard to swim up stream in the amazon. cvs, wall green, right aid and dorsey and zuckerberg and ceos testify in front of the senate one bright spot in the s&p 500,
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cruise stocks as norwegian is near the high of the session for more on the market action, let's get to bob pisani. >> hello, john it's sort of a choppy, indeterminate day. the market can't quite decide what it wants to do today. we've had a great run in bank and material stocks. the cyclical names have done really well recently those are on the weak side today. tech is kind of flattish overall today here and then we had energy stocks and reits. so energy has been holding up very well today and so has real estate investment trusts on top of that. teak take a lock therok there there's the reits there. sl green up this month they are going to start getting traffic elsewhere in the
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quarter. what's getting action and volume today? they love small caps of any kind small cap stocks, small cap val value, small cap growth overall is doing well. even midcap value, we're talking 300% of normal value they're trying to trade small cap value, small cap growth, midcap value there's huge money going into equity etfs in general so far this month look at these inflows. very large inflows, small cap equities, s&p 500, we're seeing outflows from treasury bond etfs and also outflows from the largest gold etf the etf market has passed $5 trillion, an all-time record and the reason money is going in to equities is because traders are looking over that valley, that covid winter to what i call the reopening swing in 2021 and
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they're deciding to take money sitting on the sidelines and putting it in. guys, they're using etfs to do that because that's become the preferred way to get into and out of the markets back to you. >> bob, thank you very much, bob pisani the market's reaction to every bit of vaccine news larkgely based on what the economic recovery might look like and what fed chair powell is saying about it >> fed chair powell warning of tough times ahead of the economy as a result of the surging virus we've been covering and before the positive effects of the vaccine take hold. powell saying the concern is that people will lose confidence in efforts to control the pandemic and they'll pull become from activities. and there's some sign of that already. powell said the vaccine developments were good news for the medium term but widespread vaccination several months in
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the future goldman halved but beginning in the spring goldman adds back three points because of the positive effects of the vaccine health experts saying the surge and the vaccine are closely related. the worst the situation before the vaccine is deployed, the less it will help the nation if the virus goes unchecked, we'll be so deep in the pandemic that the vaccine alone will not be good enough to return us immediately to normal. the more people infected going in, the more cases lee's model predict predicts they're going to have to lock through some pretty grim headlines in the months ahead unfortunately.
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>> maybe this is a question more for d.c. but from the econ's point of view, a big turning point i would imagine is still fiscal stimulus. do you know what they're expecting on that front? >> i think i saw a report. i think they're looking for a trillion dollars goldman was very early on reading the tea leaves on the fact there wasn't going to be a stimulus i don't know how confident they are at this point. but it's hard, kelly, again you're right, this is politics more than economics. it's hard to piece together any certainty at all that is going to be stimulus other than the obvious need for it, for those businesses that can't make it. you have benefits running out. maybe some concern about the public moving lauwmakers to ther senses here but i don't know that's a good bet. >> steve liesman following the numbers for us stocks sitting just below record
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levels with a few potentially rough months ahead for the economy, where can investors find money in this market. joining us is liz young and steve is portfolio manager and equity strategist at fed rated hermes this market i think is a challenging one because it's basically saying we're going to look ahead six months out, focus on the vaccine and not worry in the meantime is there any reason you think that we're going to wake up one di and find it suddenly takes a very different point of view >> so, kelly, i think what's going to happen through the end of the year and maybe into january of 2021 is we're going to see a lot of momentum changes and a lot of directional shifts in the market as we try to find a new equilibrium, a new pattern that makes sense in a world with a vaccine, in a world where we do have a lot to look forward to but it's a fair point that in the next 90 days or so we're probably going to get some tough
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headlines. i do think, however, this market is going to be resilient we can even just look at how resilient it's been since march and it should be able to look through a lot of that. i don't think it would be a huge surprise to see choppiness, maybe a 3% to 5% pullback but at this point i this i therenk the much to look forward to in 2021 and a lot of investors still have money on the sidelines that will probably put it to work as we get valuation opportunities through the end of the year. >> i know there's a few areas where you think value igations e still attractive you may have heard about this fund, everybody piling into risk you're pretty bullish on 2021. does it make you nervous consensus is so on one side right now? >> no, i think it's reticent even when you look at those surveys. we learned two pieces of
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information this week that i think are game changers. we were looking for vaccines 50 to 60% effective, something like a flu vaccine. what we got instead was something like a polio vaccine, 90 to 95%. that's not a vaccine that helps you manage covid, it's a vaccine that helps you eradicate covid so when the market is looking forward, we're going to get some stimulus, either a trillion and split government we'll have a dovish fed and earnings and economic kocomparin on a year over year basis that will look really good next year. that's a really good environment for risk assets and stocks and it's all being discounted by historically low rates we think the big story here is the economic recovery. there's a lot of things to be concerned about but there always are at the beginning of the recovery and we are bullish
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>> liz, i wonder what exactly is factored into this market, fiscal policy-wise what's priced in because i'm thinking with democrats having a bit more leverage, maybe we see some changes in taxes that the market won't like, some changes in regulation as well we don't even know what the outcome is going to be in the senate quite yet we don't get that until january 5th. how much of that is priced in and how much risk is there along those lines? >> yeah, john, i would argue that i don't know that democrats have that much more leeway here. and i think the big expectation that the market has taken is that we end up with a divided government but, remember, without congress we can't really make any changes to taxes but what a president biden could do without congress is change trade policy we can also work on a fiscal package but i'm afraid that honestly one of my biggest fears is that all of this good news about a vaccine lessens the
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urgency of congress to act on a fiscal policy. we'll see what happens in january. i'm hopeful that we still end up with something reasonably large enough to get us to the other side even with a vaccine, it doesn't actually become effective, it doesn't actually save us until probably late spring, early summer we need to get through this flu season and the early part of next year. some of the economic data, consumer sentiment, if we see a big burst, maybe we're baking in too much optimism and could be set up for disappointment in january. i am confident the government will get something done by the end of february and that's positive for consumers and businesses >> liz, steve, thank you >> thank you >> thank you >> tesla meanwhile up about 9%
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on the announcement it's going to join the s&p 500 index next month. that's the end of a long road for the electric car maker tesla will be more valuable than 95% of the s&p 500 when it enters currently it's trading at a triple digit forward earnings multiple its market cap around $400 billion. what does this highmilestone men for elon musk? what kind of landmark moment is this i can't help but notice the market cap of tess will right now is about where apple's was when president donald trump was elected. >> yeah. and elon has talked about how he thinks tesla someday might be equal in value to apple approximateapple, but for now and today we've seen the benefit and exuberance in the market place, we saw the stock
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really soar and tesla was able to go to market and raise capital, issuing a lot of shares, really cheaply for them to raise a lot of money, which gives them a treasure chest, a war chest to pay for all of that growth they're anticipating in the future, which investors are in turn souper excited about >> is it all up side for tesla here in one sense they're becoming more of an establishment company. any risks here that analysts are talking about? >> well, you know, you are bring up something interesting here. elon musk has built this company bucking tradition. he doesn't do what people say he should do, right so the idea that he's somehow going to change, that tesla is going to become a stodgy company is unrealistic at this point it probably emboldened him going forward. the challenge may be that even more attention will be on tesla,
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that it will be even harder for the company to make mistakes or to miss goals in the future. that's something that tesla has struggled with in the past but it was always kind of shrugged off in part because it was a startup, it was trying something that was unheard of, impossible. but now the largest automaker in the world by market value, part of the s&p 500, here's a company that has got a huge target on it >> you say don't expect elon musk to change i'm not sure he hasn't already changed a bit. seems like maybe the latest baby he hasn't been quite as volatile on twitter, at least he's not breaking as many rules that are raising regulatory issues do you think that's going to happen again or are we entering a new kind of calmer, gentler elon musk era? >> if you look at the company over time, what we've seen are
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ups and downs and that's usually around when they're trying to take on something really hard for the first type we saw him to be the most volatile during the model three ramp up production issues in 2018 when the company was on the line its ability to go forward was really challenged. similarly when the company struggled in late 2008 and early 2013, he suffered personally during those periods and the company suffered there was so much attention and the stakes were so much higher that people noticed in the world that sometimes he does erratic things >> investors pretty charged up ahead of this edition to the s&p 500. we'll see how long this energy lasts. >> coming up, we're talking about 24% comps.
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a top analyst discusses what's weighing on the stock down about 3% today plus we'll speak with the ceo of one new jersey hospital about how he's bridging the gap until a a vaccine is ready before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -audrey's expecting... -twins! ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. (har(betsy) twelquarter mile of tinsel. lights. (harold) and real snow all the way from switzerland. (betsy) hmmhm... gonna be tough to top. ♪
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retail sales were up as trends start to run dry home depot up 24%, walmart sales up more than 6%. despite strong reports, shares of both are lower today. home depot down 3%, walmart fractionally falling where is the retail rally liz suzuki and liz dunne it's great to have you both here. a point that stdruken milmiller brought up a few weeks ago, who do you think is at risk of seeing a covid hangover here in retail >> there is a new frontier created with the home
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improvement industry not only have people been spending more time at home and sop some of that will continue as none of us are going immediately back to our offices any time soon the home has become the school, the playground, it's taken on a new role in households now that we've seen people moving out into the suburbs and more rural markets and that's a longer term tail wind. even though home depot and lowes will have this tail wind, we're still looking at an environment that we think home improvement takes to take wallet share from the fact that people are moving. the more people we're seeing moving out and creating new households, they're now home improvement customers for life it has opened up a larger market >> i believe that. i mean, it's been my own
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experience i'm year three now and the projects are still coming. liz dunne, would you agree with that i think you're also pretty bullish on these stocks. why do you think home depot in particular is trading lower today? >> this resonates with me. i think that the investors are somewhat reacting to the added costs. they've taken the wage increases and said, you know, we now need to make permanent wage increases to compensate our associates and so with the back drop of people wondering how much of this is sustainable, what we do know is the cost is sustainable. the cost carries through and is long term. additionally they made this investment, brought back in this pro service business and so if you're looking at home depot versus lowe's, lowe's has more of a do it yourself customer and
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home depot has doubled down or more of their pro business and added costs in the form of wage increas increases. >> liz dunn, is there anywhere in retail that you're more cautious about >> yeah. i mean, i've been listening to some people say you want to play the companies that have suffered most in terms of the crisis i think you want to be cautious there. some of these are poorly performing businesses. i think you can maybe be constructive about something like a kohl's. they have a strong balance sheet, they're reinstituting their dividend and they've made t strategic changes fo ther their business you do not want to bottom fish and go after some of these businesses particularly in their peril space. >> fair enough and, liz, this point about the strong getting stronger, we're saw the special dividend from
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costco where are you on that stock? are your top picks similarly the names that we already think of as kind of just the outperformers in retail? >> sure. i'm generally favoring the strong, well capitalized retailers that have been doing well in this environment and are generating real cash that they can then use to deepen their competitive mode if we think about what home depot is doing in terms of raising permanent raises, that's what we want to see a good can be do when they're successful, right? we want to see them reinvesting in their employees and in capital expenditures and investing in the business for future growth and to retain that competitive edge i thisnk the large, well-capitalized retailers are generally in a better position and going back to home improvement, as we've seen koef individual cases starting to rise, this is a category that's done very well and they're considered essential retailers
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it gives you that exposure to the potential lockdown situation that we may be going back into so they would benefit from that and longer term benefit from the housing terms. >> all right i don't know what's in the water today but we had liz suzuki, liz dunn and we had liz young in the last block we got them all in today good to check in with you guys thank you very jon, over to you >> jefferies naming southwest as its top pick in the airline space saying they're going to recover the quickest from the pandemic and taking bipartisan heat in front of the senate judiciary committee. we'll inbrg you their comments more "power lunch" right after this state-of-the-art but dependable. in other words, you want a hybrid. so do telcos. that's why they're going hybrid with ibm.
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leverage the trading nation team is todd gordon, mark tepper. good to see you both with california and other states introducing tough measures ahead of the thanksgiving holiday, is it too early to bet on the airline? >> for us it's still a little too early. i would wait a little longer when i look at the jefferies report, i totally get the southwest play i mean, the theme, at least over the next few months is domestic over international travel and leisure over business travel when you look at southwest, they've got the highest percentage of seat miles coming from domestic flights and they're more heavily tilted towards leisure over business. the question is whether or not you agree with the theme and how much of that's already priced in and in my opinion a lot of that is already priced in because southwest is outperforming the jets etf this year by like 18% and i think there's reason for that so if we talk about leisure versus business, business travel
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accounts for about 12% of airline passengers but about 35% of revenue it's much more profitable. and in my opinion that's a structural shift i don't know that business travel ever fully rebounds given everyone's willingness to conduct business via zoom and docusign i agree over the short term the vaccines are going to be available around the world as bad as i want to make my comeback to vegas, i just as much enjoy going to cancun >> vegas, cancun, they're all on my list for 2021 once that vaccine comes out. todd, you're sticking with southwest. tell us why. >> i agree with what mark is saying i would be cautious looking to add southwest. they are looking to expand four cities this year, six cities next year going into covid they were better equipped, less debt, lower expenses and they were
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focused on domestic travel from a technical point of view, i like it, all the the covid correction was waived for, maybe breaking 55, possibly we could retake the old highs up around 70 if we get the vaccine from a sector rotation and specifically with the airlines, there's been an attempt over the last five weeks but it was fading when you look at the month-over-month sector rotation, airlines continued to fade united, delta, jet blue, then southwest. i agree with mark, we'll, watchi watchinwatc -- we'll be watching. >> kelly, over to you. >> seema, thank you very much. coming up on "power lunch", are
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delight our enemies. >> there is a lower estimate for travel spending this year. it's expecting spending will plummet 45%. wichita's state's men's basketball coach greg march sshl has resigned following an investigation into allegations of verbal and physical abuse of his players. in wisconsin all counties have certified their election results. election officials put the price tag at $7.9 million. that's our news update this hour john, i'll send it back to you >> sue, thank you. >> meanwhile, 16 166,000 new coronavirus cases since
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yesterday. the ohio governor moments ago the late toast to announce a cu effective thursday to help combat the spread. meg tirrell joins us with more meg? >> reporter: as we are seeing the seven day average in new daily cases surpassing 150,000 a day. hospitalizations are also at a new record 73,000 americans in the hospital that passes the spring peak and the fall peak where we are seeing almost 70,000 now daily numbers of deaths being reported, also more than a thousand every day in this country and it is really bad everywhere let's take a look regionally about where hospitalizations are spiking the most if you look at this data from the covid tracking process, the spike is really getting bad there in terms of the numbers of people who are going to the hospital can you see the northeast was so
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hard hit back in the spring and we're starting to take up here as well. the south had that big spike in the summer but they are increasing now as well and the west is also increasing so anywhere you look it is not good let's drill down even further to state by state hospitalization trends you can see here that no state is seeing a decline in the number of hospitalizations, each area at least a 4% week over week increase in the seven-day average. those states in the orange there really seeing the worst, and more than a 30% kriens this those being hospitalized, guys >> meg, are we back in the phase of needing to flattening the curve? it's a term we talked about quite a bit in the beginning of the year i haven't heard it used as much now. and is the curve affected differently because we know more about treatments for coronavirus? >> well, john, i think some public health experts might have argued we never got out of the
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time when we should have been focused on flattening the curve. that was a phrase that we used to talk about trying to reduce the number of people getting infected all at the same time to reduce the strains on the health care system. so certainly we still need to be trying to reduce the strains on the health care system we're also doing a very bad job of that. the number of people getting infected does follow that some of those people will be hospitalized and some of those people will die. it's horrible to see these numbers right now. >> especially as it's colder, we definitely don't want to see this virus spreading more and causing hospitalizations meg tirrell, thank you >> new jersey is seeing a big uptick in covid cases. it's up over 47% to an average of 1,900
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michael maron is president and ceo of holy name medical center in teaneck, new jersey it's good to have you back i can't believe we're doing this again. tell me the differences between now versus march >> we have a lot more testing so we have a lot more people showing up testing positive, not quite as symptomatic the ers while busy are not overflowing like they were in march and april. that said, we are seeing an uptick symptomatic patients are there we're into that season now we're into the flu and rhino virus season we suspect there are other viral activities occurring they're testing positive for covid and then we're treating them >> how are staffing levels and stamina at this point. >> staffing is okay.
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people are kind of like, oh boy, here we go again, why now. we knew this was going to happen it was a very much anticipated event that once the colder weather came, people are spending more time indoors, people have mask fatigue and quarantine fatigue that it's going to start to leak out there in a more robust way that's what we're seeing and the virus itself has most likely changed and mutated we know it's much more contagious that has not changed its impact on people has changed. we still see critical cases but nowhere near like what we saw in march and april. so a lot of that is a factor here the staff actually have a little more confidence this go around so we know what we're expecting. we have all the resources we put in place still exist so all those extra icus and negative pressure rooms we still built
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are all still available. so there's a confidence and a calmness to dealing with it. frustration that it's still here but also that's just how viruses are. we knew it was coming. >> michael, i don't want to deal with these terms coldly at all, but i do want to ask when i think at least from me is an important question, it has to do with the relationship this time between hospitalizations and deaths because ppe perhaps is not in as short supply, because there's more knowledge about how to treat this disease that comes from the virus along with the other factors you mentioned, should we read the hospitalization curve the same way in terms of how dire it is in terms of the relationships to deaths or is it somewhat different? >> it's somewhat different it's still a horrible outcome, right. everybody's working hard to try to avoid it. you have to equate it almost to the flu season in any given year in the flu season, the country will lose between 70 and 80,000 people who
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die, flu induced, usually other co-more bid conditions so we have to maintain that awareness that people are coming in with covid, they have other severe co-more bid conditions and the immune response isn't helping. the therapeutic today are proving, all still in trials and holy name participate in just about all of them. we have most of the large trials so regeneron, remdesivir and those are all proving fairly effective. that gives us the act to intervene much quicker and lower those ultimate mortality rates if you come in with severe diabetes and hypertension and hyper lipodemia, obesity, those events are going to affect the outcome. >> thank you, john
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thanks for having me >> markets today reversing some of the day's action. the dow giving back some of that record-setting rally one stock pulling back today is moderna, hitting an all-time high on the vaccination news yesterday. das l be right back with more of toy'movers including the huge ripple effect from amazon's pharmacy plan. and with brokerage accounts online trades are commission free. personalized advice. unmatched value. at fidelity, you can have both.
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it is time for power movers starting with amazon's plan to launch a pharmacy. not having an impact on amazon but look at what it's doing to goodrx, one of the biggest decliners there. cvs and walgreens boots also taking a hit the ripple effect doesn't end there. the drug distributors all hit on this news. shares of capri holdings moving higher wells fargo upgrading to overweight, raising the price target from 45 to 25 saying luxury brands will accelerate in 2021 and draft kings, the recipient of bullish commentary
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initiating with a buy and more than double where it is right now, kelly >> let's get to the bond market now. rick santelli is tracking the action for us at the cme >> hi, kelly without the storck market making a business historic move, we're losing ground. when stocks are hot, the 10s get -- you look at a month today of 10s, pay attention to two lows in early november, that's where your ideal support is. on a month-to-date chart, if you put the s&p on top of 10s, the effect i was discussing, if we just stick with this month to date, look at what's going on with the dollar. euro is at the top of the range toying with new highs and if you go back another month you see an even more aggressive look to the chart. the dollar is starting to slip
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pay particularly close attention to the weak eeweakest. >> "power lunch" will be right back ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth. glitchy video calls with regional offices?
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welcome back twitter's ceo jack dorsey and facebook's ceo mark zuckerberg testifying before the senate today. the focus, kensorship and news distribution on their plorps however the companies appear stuck in the middle of, well, the one thing both sides continue to agree on these days, it is a good time to beat up on these two companies in social media. the republicans say they are overcensoring and democrats are saying they are not doing enough to control the spread of misinformation >> according to the internal records that are on record now, leaked by nbc news, facebook has
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removed fact checks and forgiven infractions for conservative pages and pundits such as breitbart, donald trump jr., eric trump, and gateway pundit based on a fear of accusations of bias. >> we have a provision in the bill of rights protecting freedom of the press but yet here, while we would never let the government regulate what the press writes or doesn't write, essentially we are allowing private companies which are now de facto public forums to regulate that speech >> well, here now to discuss how these companies can navigate the political divide, the verge editor in chief and host of the new podcast decoder, me lie patel. congrats on the podcast launch let's talk about this section
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230 issue and the testimony today it seems like both sides enjoy beating up on facebook and twitter more than they are going to enjoy any particular solution to come out of this. >> yeah. i saw a good tweet today that says one side said the bus should go to new jersey, the other side the bus should go to new mexico there is a bipartisan consensus that the bus should move that's where we are. i will say jack and mark are good at getting beat up on this was truly one of the worst hearings the senators seemed unprepared and there -- you know, whether or not they admit it the republicans know there is going to be a biden administration they might be the ones writing the rules of any proposed regulation there has been a marked shift in tone from the conservative side. right now it is just a lot of confused ideas about what the
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first amendment can and cannot do in relation to the platforms. >> i am starting to think it might be a ropa don't stream from zuckerberg and dorsey i'm referring to the boxing strategy that muhammad ali made famous where you just let yourself get hit and wait for the opponent to get tired. at this point i would hope we would be hearing something more coherent out of the senators and it would be headed somewhere maybe they just enjoy talking. >> i think that's true in particular, mark zuckerberg and facebook are very eager to have some sort of 230 reform, some sort of regulatory apparatus installed because they are huge they have the ability to light up compliance teams, light up content moderations teams and really take that regulated monopoly approach to dominance zuckerberg said it we support reform. we think there should be regulation
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dorsey, twitter -- i say this all the time when i am on air. twitter is a much, much smaller company. i think this was the first time dorsey said explicitly he supports some amount of reform but i don't think he is eager to face the compliance cost of a major regulatory scheme the way at that facebook honestly seems eager to install. >> let's think about what might happen here because when you have got a closely divided senate which it is going to be no matter who wins in georgia the presidential veto becomes really important what kinds of changes are actually going to be made? it is not going to be open season for speech on social media, certainly, with a biden presidency but i doubt the republican sthaerts are going to go for some sort of -- senators are going to go for some sort of politeness regime. >> it is interesting right now from what we heard president-elect biden and donald trump have actually the same
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position on 230, which is to reveal it. joe biden's called for as part of his transition a task force on on line harassment, but we haven't heard a lot of specifics. i think what you will definitely see is an increased push for the big platforms in particular for far more transparent about then content moderation policies, what actions are taken, how often they are taken whether there is a bias to those. in a healthy market for these services it is something consumers should know. i think you are going to see in parallel a lot of the anti-trust and competitive market idea comes to the fore. what you really want is for there to be competition for twitter, so if you hate twitter you can go someplace else. >> there is plenty of competition. repeal and replace 230 is what
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we are facing. if you like your twitter handle, you can keep it. thank you. check out bitcoin, everybody. it is getting close to 18,000, its record high. we haven't seen these levels since late 2017 when we hit stju shy of the 20k mark. more on that and these markets in just a moment who is usaa made for? it's made for this guy a veteran who honorably served and it's made for her she's serving now we made it for all branches and all ranks whether they served one tour or made a career of it. we also made usaa for military spouses and their kids usaa is easy to work with and can save you money on auto, home and renters insurance. become a member today. get an insurance quote at usaa.com/quote usaa. what you're made of we're made for
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100 points blame amazon wa nasdaq and s&p relatively flat. >> a double negative between amazon's online offerings and these discount cards john, thank you for joining us today. john fort. thanks everyone for tuning in the "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you kelly and jon, welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen along with wilfred frost. 30,000 not today. stocks are selling off though we steadily climbed higher throughout the session. retail earnings beat tech is outperforming. tesla up
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