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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 18, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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depot and lowes, but maybe it will like nordstrom >> there were a lot of intraday reversals. gold slipped by the end of the session and yields endwere low d ended higher that does it for us. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. beware, bitcoin touching its highest level in three years but it is being said a crypto crash could be coming. earnings, companies calls coming up >> steve grasso, why he is saying this stay at home stock is truly a good investment
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headlines hit on the coronavirus. new york city is halting all inperson learning starting tomorrow it comes as the number of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are skyrocketing nationwide. and a new all time high for s&p. we have a record number of cases of covid in america and retailers are hitting an all time high. how can this be? >> the haves and have-nots kudos to karen and tim target numbers were extraordinary. it should come as no surprise. that's a name we have talked about. if you love walmart at their valuation, you have to love
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target at theirs walmart quarter i thought was very good. there are a lot of good individual stories, but i don't think it speaks to the economy per se there are names we also mention that seem to be topping out. the price action in restoration hardware, william sonoma and we don't need to go down the road of what they sell. those stocks popped out a couple of weeks ago that's concerning. do you want to play at the $100 earnings table, gap earnings on the 24th and macy's tomorrow i would submit that macy's could trade up to the june high. squeeze out all of the shorts and then you sell again. >> karen, what do you make of the retail t.j., the home goods business makes complete sense of people spending on throw pillows and if
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you are blankets, but the dividend is really interesting >> it is interesting to me guy just talked about macy's they don't have the balance sheet to reinstate the dividend. but we have seen it a couple of times. t.j. maxx, it was home goods that drove it. they are talking about reinstating the dividend and increasing it i believe in march of next year i don't get why companies feel they need to do that maybe they want to flex their balance sheet and show how strong it is i don't get it i don't feel like we are through this pandemic. we saw kohl's do it. target did it. they may be reinstating their
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buyback. i don't understand completely why. no, that was lowe's. that was a retail low point. we can get to that later i don't get why companies feel the need to increase their dividends or discontinue their dividends temporarily. i think they should keep them low for a while. i don't know why they need to come out and be so aggressive. >> if they can't forecast earnings for the fourth quarter, tim, but they say we will reinstate the dividend for the fourth quarter we have clarity to that but we don't have clarity in the fourth earnings quarter report. what did you make of today >> i agree i don't know why that has to be a part of it unless you are not an oil company some of these trends i think have been in place for sometime. look at the srt going back one
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year it has outperformed the s&p by 4% the point is has there been a changing of character and has this been going on slowly but surely accelerated by covid. so a more lean and efficient business model with some of the worst stories me know in retail which me know around macy's and baed, bath and beyond. some of these get into restructuring faster i think some of those trends are very much alive. i think the comps were very, very strong. the question was on the gross margin with such a great quarter, people thought some of that, the business should be more profitable that takes you through the july high and maybe you get back to
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135. i think you start buying lows here target with those u.s. comps, the question everyone wants to know is what can they do after covid. that's what retail, big box will be struggling with >> steve, i don't know how you are going to buy your toilet paper after the pandemic i am still going to buy online for a big part of the population, returning to the store like walmart or target, it may not be as appealing seeing how convenient it is to buy online >> i still have about five closets of toilet paper. so if anybody needs it >> oh, you are that guy. >> i bought it legally, tim, so i waited in line i keep going -- both ways, i keep going and keep going.
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i love the canned laughter i like the haves and have-nots this will turn into would you rather i would rather sell target, lowe's home depot and buy kohl's think about this kohl's will make more money than they did this year, next year. i am 100% positive on that can target keep its multiple the same it has to to move sideways or move up. or a home depot or lowe's. so in a game of would you rather, i buy macy's this thing doesn't take much to make it pop. i would buy kohl's down 43% to date >> steve grasso is sitting there
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with his closets full of toilet paper. karen, you mention both macy's and kohl's >> they are two different companies. they both went down dramatically in march but kohl's balance sheet is in good shape macy's, they are still trading at a discount. i think that i would rather, if i was would you rather myself, i would rather be long kohl's and short macy's to me the macy's run already is accepted plus they have a lot of new york city eccentricity. >> we are going to try and fix
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karen's audio. based on the bottom line, karen would rather kohl's over macy's. joining us now from chris white. >> you would expect this because bond investors are looking at the long-term so investing in the future when we look at clothing retailers, the question will be what happens when macy's comes back to the market, not necessarily today, but when they refinance the debt that's out there. >> you make the point, chris, and important for viewers to know, macy's is already a zombie
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company. they don't make enough money to make interest payment. >> if this is the first time you hear zombie, you will probably hear it a lot in 2021. there is an article 1.4 trillion debt issued by companies that don't have the earnings to service the interest on that debt so either that company is going to borrow more money or go under. that's the position macy's is in as a retailer. >> chris, we find ourselves at a point where if global economy is improving and interest rates would go up, some of these retailers would be in a good spot but would rising interest rates be catastrophic to some of these names you talked about >> yes, primary and secondary
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markets will be key to how some of these companies survive interest rates are low to keep many of these companies solvent. the solvency is the ability to borrow money without paying the double digit interest rates. that's the game being played right now to avoid what you are talking about. if interest rates were to normalize, i think a lot of these companies would be in trouble. >> tim, may have a question, but i will continue on this note are the zombie companies in one particular sector? oil comes to mind. but does retail have anything to do with it >> macy's is the only retailer fitting into that category i love that you pulled up the kohl's data beforehand bond investors are savvy about
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who can pay their debt and who can't. it's across the board where you are finding zombie companies it's very important that people look into how companies are servicing their debt before they make a debt or equity investment at this point. it comes down to is the fed going to be there to help out. if the answer is no, you are in trouble as an investor >> chris, always great to speak with you thank you. >> thank you very much >> chris white tim, what did you make of it >> how are you why was a zombie on the screen for a second the story around a retailer, is the fed going to support strategically -- probably not. macy's, like other retailers is certainly on the verge of some
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significant cash crunch, but they were able to raise a billion three. they are going to get through 2021 and 2022. the last quarter, the surprise was they generated a little cash and i think you will hear in the third quarter there was a little more of a cash burn. their digital sales are up 53% it is a business that has restructured on the fly. they have had success in parts of their retail chain. i mean in the home part, beauty. these are segments they needed to grow in one of the keys for the equity investor -- and i have been adding to the macy's position the last couple weeks. do you hold it through earnings. i don't think the expectation is that the third quarter will be good so there needs to be a glimmer of hope.
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>> nordstrom and others who issued debt remained solvent for some time, karen maybe that's the bridge to the other side of the vaccine which looks like it could be sooner rather than later. >> maybe macy's has been able to mon ties for a few years. they have done that for a number of properties. they might have some less. the last lever they have -- they can't be in the debt market -- we saw it with the airlines. that's a last ditch thing they can do >> speaking of vaccines, big news out of pfizer new data details next >> it seems like every day we get more vaccine news. but pfizer has a look at their phase 3 trial and it looks better than the interim look we
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got last week. 95% efficacy in adults 65 plus there were 170 total cases they saw in this final look 162 were on placebo and only 8 on vaccine 10 severe cases, 9 of which were on placebo now they have to file for emergency use with the fda for the vaccination. they said there are intense side effects like headache for a small amount of people the company plans to submit their application to the fda in a couple days. the fda said they are thinking about holding a advisory meeting on vaccines on december 8, 9 and
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10 and they could be discussing both pfizer and moderna vaccines we have talked about how the different companies are approaching this from apprising standpoint how these vaccines are shaping upper dose pfizers is $19.50 per dose and that's two-dose regimen. modern's is 15.25 based on a similar deal moderna would argue they got about $1 billion in development so for both it is about $25. and both of these are doing it as a nonprofit, at least during the pandemic >> thank you, meg.
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>> steve grasso, not too much impact today from what we got a week ago >> all of the vaccine plays topped out in july they all came in and then this latest news headline flurry, they popped above their july highs, but back in below the july highs now you don't get a rally in the vaccine names multiple times for the same news. while i own pfizer, i have owned pfizer for decades i am still staying long pfizer, but i would not be buying any of these on a vaccine play. i think it is a long shot. >> guy, you are making a similar price action about these stocks. >> pfizer particularly, look how horribly it has traded since last monday's announcement we know it traded at 42 because we talked about some of the
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insiders selling, legally of course i know for a fact when moderna was trading on the other side of 100, and said that was a gift and if you were enjoying the ride, you should pull the rip cord not to cast dispersions, but gilead started this all. pfizer, i never thought vaccine was one of the things for it why carter says the bitcoin breakout is ready for a breather and a conference call underway we will bring you the details when "fast money" returns. ♪ you can go your own way
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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert. josh has the details hi, josh >> the stock was up about 130% this year.
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2.3 in gaming. the 1.9 was in data center revs inline and the gross margin, he said that could have been a bit better we will have more about the forecast mitch remains a bull i asked why, and he said this is the best pure play on artificial intelligence they talked about their new family of chips, talked about the decision to buy arms for $40 billion. said they are working through the regulatory process on that gaming a hoard amount, but down year after year. looking for more on the call about the margins and data
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more when i get back to you. >> tim, what do you think of the quarter? >> the numbers were fantastic. data center, incredible. i think we have known about the strength in gaming at mid 60s, so i think it's about the multiple for this company. i have been saying multiple on this company at a couple hundreds i think you have to be right there. >> for all of the others, guy, sorry. >> maybe intel should take a page i don't know if the folks at intel are watching, but maybe take a page out of the nvida playbook you are nitpicking gross margins could have been better they gave you fourth quarter guidance which was fine.
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what happened here was -- and steve can speak to this 580 or so we traded there in september, traded there a week or so again. armchair technicians, if you have not coordinated to this name, i think you want to figure out where to buy it. put that on your radar screen as an entry point. >> steve, is this a trade if the overall market gets better or stay at home play? >> both. unfortunately, the former is going to outweigh the latter to guy's point, it topped out in september at 589 this month it topped out at 587. for the last couple of days last week it has been hugging the 550
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day. right now it's below, 527. i do like selling this it is one of my favorite names, but unfortunately, the head wind, as you framed it, value versus growth, that will win out in the end you have to buy value not growth >> we have a lot more ahead on "fast money. here is what is coming up. >> the max is back what does boeing 737 max ungrounding mean for the airline industry details next and later, want your portfolio to blast off options traders are betting on an out of this world move for shares of virgin galactic. we have that and more when "fast money" returns going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly
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welcome back to "fast money. the max is back. the fleet has been grounded for nearly two years after crashes killed a total of 346 people phil lebeau joins us with details. >> the stock was up about 24% leading into today everybody knew the max was going to be ungrounded soon by the faa so no surprise in the announcement but nonetheless, nice move since the middle of october, end of october. you are seeing that reflected in the stock trading over $200 a share. just to bring you up to speed, how long ago the max had the
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first accident the first crash was more than two years ago and then it spent much of last year the company was going through investigations on capitol hill hearing and investigation between boeing and the faa. then earlier this year is when things started to change late last year, early this year when you had these text messages that came out about engineers at boeing and knocking the faa. dave calhoun stepped in and shut down production. we will have to cut the enroll by at least 12,000 this was boeing saying what do we need to do to get the max recertified. then you had a test floigt in late october and today finally the ungrounding of the 737 max we talked about how much it meansto boeing but suppliers, there is ge and
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ge aviation along with sefron who make the engines and then out of wichita, kansas, they make the fuselage. it is not like they are going to ramp up production, but you will gradually see them improve in production airlines will start flying the max december 29, from new york to miami gradually they will add more flights. and united plans to start flying the max in the first quarter this is what we will see not only with the u.s. airlines but around the world they gradually get the planes updated, new software, have the pilots go through simulators and over the next six months or a year you will see the max move into these fleets. >> phil, thank you
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tim, you fast pitched boeing november 15. and since then shares are up there were various probes, doj probe, faa inspection. planes that were stored need to be inspected and fixes made to them so there is a lot ahead for this company. >> i don't know how this thing got past the team with that negative buildup but you are right. this news didn't do anything to price targets on the street. this is a continuation in a painful, difficult, almost embarrassing moment for the company. the reality is capacity for planes hasn't changed at all that is changing around the covid vaccine news airline stocks were up today
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when boeing finished up and in the red. boeing still has 450 planes to find homes for how opportunistic were buyers be to try to get price concessions. the airbus a320 is a more popular plane and they don't have a lot to fight on this. it is about cash flow for boeing arguably we are a ways away from that i stay long the stock. the timeline with the vaccine is part of that story >> the biggest unknown is now known in terms of when it can turn to floigt -- flight is this a turn around story you can invest in? >> let me push back. is it the biggest unknown or is it how healthy will the airlines be and able to implement
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financially that buying. some of it has been delayed. so i don't completely accept your premise, but i don't own boeing >> how do you enact that premise? >> interesting i can make the best lemonade in the business, but if people aren't thirsty, you are sol. tim power pitch hit and he was up 15% but he was in the bullpen long before that and good for him and for being steadfast. on a day when boeing trades up three times normal volume, trades up to june high, that's a bit concerning same thing with spirit aero chart. although i think the analysts will wind up being right, where does it trade first?
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i think given the news that's out, i think it's reasonable to see it at 175 or 180 and then you buy it again >> what does boeing's ungrounding mean for airlines? she l sheila, great to have you with us what do you think the biggest unknown is at this point is it whether or not people return to flying >> i think the biggest unknown -- we were waiting for two catalysts, one was the vaccine and two was the max worthiness directive it is going to remove 14 billion of inventory on the balance sheet over the next three years. we just innish shaded on the airline sector yesterday you want to buy domestic airlines, southwest first over international airlines
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that's where the narrow bodies like the 737 max will return to normal level by 2023 >> do you feel confident that airlines won't look for concessions with regards to price on these planes that have been moth balled in the desert for months and months? >> definitely. that's why we took the boeing number down appreciably. we are down 3 billion. a lot of that was because these airlines already prepaid some of what they were expected to receive. so those prepayments will be a lot smaller next year. it is a $4 billion headwind to boeing next year those concessions are being factored in. >> something that tim said, do they get credit for the defense component of their company
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it seems to me, maybe the last couple weeks with standing, that portion of the company was being devalued entirely. >> agreed. i think investors have had a small risk tolerance appetite as the vaccine has come in. the discussions on normal extra cash flow are super. >> sheely, thanks for joining us we appreciate your time. steve, i will throw that back at you, boeing or the airlines? >> well, i don't own boeing. i do own spirit. i like the way she navigated the story that international will be slower to recover. domestic will be faster so she picked luv i have save, spirit airlines
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i have that one. congratulations to tim, and it broke out of this recent trading range, but i do see -- i don't know, if i had to be aggressive, i would say 165 this thing coming back in there is no reason for it to rip higher than what guy said, that high we have seen a couple of months ago in june of 234. i do like the fact that they have a defense, a space and security business that earns them over $26 billion a year, but the commercial plane side is over $30 billion, probably not coming on as quickly as we could like >> tim, what is the winning horse? the vaccine or the rise in covid cases? >> or investor sentiment if you listen to the airlines, we are not about liquidity we are about recovery.
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capacity makes sense, but it's not that conversation. liquidity is for all of the major carriers through 2021. no one is talking about normalized earnings here they are talking about that in other sectors. the analyst just talked about that even southwest before international travel and there is expectation that doesn't come back overnight but it's about recovery being priced in. you don't stay here forever, but i think it is still coming up. >> coming up, bitcoin. we have a new fast pitch on deck grasso has the one name he says you should hit play on yep, that was it
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welcome back to "fast money. steve grasso, this has been your final trade.
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it's up big in the after hours session. what are you looking at? >> i pitched this a couple of times as far as my final trade, but what do you do with sonos when it's up 24% on the back of earnings i think the story becomes stronger net balance sheet. high margin products are in the most demanding as far as premium stuff they are selling, plus they will have a new product year end or very soon in 2021. now what do you do with a stock when it trades this high no one is going to blame you for taking a profit on this stock. it has been an incredible run. before earnings, the stock was up 20% this one is all over the map for me i think you have a little bit left in the tank i'm playing this thing for $28 to $30 i think there is where you settle in and reassess
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i think this thing can go much higher from here but when it's up 25% on the back of earnings in after hours, no one is going to blame you if you want to ring the register. >> karen, you have a question? >> steve, great call i know you have had it for a while. at 2.2 billion-ish, is a takeover in your upside story? >> originally for me it was going to be anybody with a connected home speaker i think would be a great takeout -- this would be a great takeout target for. so think amazon, think apple obviously there has been some legal litigation with google, but maybe google wants to make that go away and take that out that's why i get to this $30 number, karen. definitely part of the story,
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karen, but all of the reason they just started their hd streaming radio so they have streaming revenue. people are starting to cramabsce on this. i think it can go higher >> tim, you have a question. >> i have to echo, an excellent call and one of those companies that looked troubling until we realized that people wanted to stay home and listen to beautiful music. i think this was very important for the company. what is the next lever they can pull or the impetus for the stock as covid is hopefully woin winding down >> the reason why people were lining up with headwinds, they had the demand but just didn't
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have the supply. now the consumer component, they are figuring out how to handle that supply to meet that demand. who knows, maybe even disney could take them out. what is the next component people start to see this is the premium product. people start to see that the product everyone is reaching for has the highest multiple i think it is a back to work and stay at home play. i think hd radio will be the next driver when you have recurring revenue of monthly income coming in >> i know we have no time, but i have to ask a stupid question -- and no questions are stupid i guess -- steve, what is hd radio? >> it's just a premium sound radio. when you listen to these two things, it's night and day >> i associate hd with video so i was wondering what the hd
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component of audio would be. time to give the pitch >> can you read my board >> it's blank. >> it is blank, but that's not blank. that's one of the speakers well done, steve stock buyback 68% year over year i inventory numbers are down business i think it's $30 price tag is big. >> i am tone deaf. i have to hold a great pitch but i think a lot of the best days for this stock cycle are in it >> karen >> i feel dumb i don't own it but if i did i wouldn't be selling that that's the same as a buy >> the traders have voted. are you buying steve's fast pitch? up next, bitcoin blasting
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bitcoin on a tear. passing the 18,000 mark. now he is saying it's time to cut back carter, take it away >> i think that's the word, tear do you reduce or trim into this move i think the answer is yes. let's look at a few charts, the first of throw this is bitcoin as of july what we have here is the krip t -- crypto is right up against july in the next chart there is a clear breakout that's the move that is interesting. it is a double we are stuck at 9,000. here we are at 18,000. but you can see the level he would approach which is a former high third and final chart.
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let's talk about it a little bit. in principle, stock can come out of anything that gets back to a former high that often can contend with it before exceeding it although we are not quite at that high, that was at 19,500 and today's high was 18,500, the thinking is to start to reduce and even as we get as high as the farmer high, reduce more it's unusual to break out before backing away from a prior well-defined spike high such as we saw in december of 2017, exactly three years ago. >> wow thank you carter, thank you. karen, what do you make of that chart? >> well, hard to bet against carter, right? however, i am in this for the long-term. early on i got my money back so i feel like i am playing with
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the house's money. the theory is yet to play out with inflation with inflation i am a long-term holder. ♪ >> ♪ don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin
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welcome back virgin galactic heading for the moon mike has the action. mike >> speculative stock, volatile stock. it traded about three times. buyers were paying about $1 for the calls. not looking for july highs but possibly prepandemic highs to be profitable >> mike, thanks for that more options action on friday at 5:30 up next, sonos, aryoe u buying steve's fast pitch ♪ ♪
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>> welcome back to "fast money." it's time to find out if you are buying steve's fast pitch on sonos. i haven't looked so we will look at the same time
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unfortunately, steve, this pitch fell on deaf ears. 60% of voters were not buying it it's up 20% after hours. time for the final trade tim? >> is that the dance mix you have got it was a great pitch by steve. anyway, $100 macy's and $1,000 long >> karen >> lowe's. not like it was crazy expensive. i know the three-day rule, but i bought some today. >> steve >> i get the sonos thing and why people bet against it. if you would have bet against it when it ran up 20% ahead of earnings now it's up 24%. i get it if you want to sell,
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but i am long. >> toni braxton equal to or greater than dance version >> they all are miserable. my friend allan just texted me and said my hair looks my mission is simple to make you money. i am here to level the plain field for all investors there is always a bull market some where i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer, welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramer's america. my job is to entertain and educate and put things in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer we saw the power of positive thinking today the market goes down

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