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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 19, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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sarah, clearly it was a strong late in the day rally so this pressure, there might be room for the wind to be taken out of the sails in the morning >> there has been a ton of breaking news. fda emergency use authorization of lily's use of the drug remdesivir further progress doling with this crisis which we need more >> much more coming up now on "fast money. >> i am melissa lee and this is "fast money. couldn't we are trading the treatment. promising news on the vaccine front but one bio analyst says don't expect this to be a shot in your arm. whattie l what elon musk did today
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we will bring you fast money trades straight ahead. we start off with a zombie ap k apocalypse on wall street. many icons are among the walking dead like macy's carnival, delta. nearly 200 companies have joined the zombie rank since march. total debt obligations nearing 1.4 trillion dollars a lot of these names are names we talk about trading on this show how should we start thinking about this >> before we get into the walking dead, i want to point out, a great job by our crack staff leading with the cranberry zombie, and delores was the
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founder of the zombie. i may have gone with something like this if the crack staff is listening. ♪ >> we are now two minutes into the show >> it's important to point this out because folks at home are paying attention >> apparently more important than actually trading our first topic in what is known as the a-block of the show. >> it's not more important it's important we will talk about a-block and zombie companies last night we talked about macy's and we talked about the $100 table and tim said it might be $1,000 table. i think it got up to 925 today now is the time to take profits. delta, that's a different ball game but what i will say is this.
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counter intuitive as this may seem, if the economy starts to get better, you would think this is good for the companies, but that means interest rates are going higher that will cripple companies. we talked about it last night and i am sure some of our guests will talk about it >> tim, how do you think about debt that like macy's can't service. >> when i think about zombie, i think about the red leather jacket that i know guy has one boeing is not a zombie company they have the ability to raise debt boeing's business has been disrupted and burned through so much cash in the last year and will burn through some cash through 2021, but it will be
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cash positive by 2022. calling them a zombie company is absurd calling macy's a zombie company is a fair analysis but they are a company that raised a lot of money to fight another day including having a $3 billion facility. you don't do cartwheels over -- macy's get better overnight. delta, relative to other airlines is not close to a zombie story they are going to make money fourth quarter next year we are not talking about a lot of business. a business where international comes under a lot of pressure. the role the fed will play talking about the bazooka in
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their pocket means it doesn't have a lot of impact in the next months. >> so it doesn't matter that these companies are zombie companies. doesn't matter that delta added $23 million in debt since the pandemic started >> you would have to think if the economy gets better, they would make more money. but then interest rates go higher how do you weigh that? >> those are interesting factors to keep in the front of your mind tim did a good job laying out differences of these questions but the commonality of these companies, they have added significant debt this year and their revenues are down at rates we haven't seen. we are talking about 7.5 billion in some instances, $18 billion
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in boeing's example. what i will say is you have seen across the board, all of these companies put one thing first, runway so if they take on this debt to get them to the next stop. in order for them to be able to continue to operate, what we have seen is they reduce staff count. that is the topic we are trying to speak to. when you start slashing human capital, when you stop innovating, that leads you to be a dead zombie company even when you have gotten to the other side of this ratio you can't meet your interest and debt service, you have serious problems >> i think bonawyn makes a great
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point. gm came out of bankruptcy ten years and wiped out a lot of debt, but they had a huge government interest that was carried along and probably hurt them in a lot of ways. it clearly hurt ford in a lot of ways and look at auto cops doing well the other point is this is the word we live in. a lot of parts of our planet -- look at japan over the last 30 years. we are going to be saddled with debt, whether consumers, sovereign balance sheets, whatever it is that's why interest rates are never going to meaningful go up again because he would can't service all of the debt. when you think about 2020 and what has happened, the fed has done their job early to make
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sure we don't have bankruptcy of large corporations which could snowball unemployment. here we are four months out of unemployment benefits. headed into the holiday season and there is no more fiscal stimulus for small businesses and consumers that need it bad so the fact we have a trillion and a half dollars, where companies are using 85% of the cash flow to buy back stock and we can't bail out consumers and companies, that is troubling to me >> that bridge waiting for the other side, waiting for the vac sewn to -- vaccine to be distributed. it is a problem if you believe the fed is going to step away.
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but who believes the fed is going to step away no one so it is not a problem, is it? >> if you listened to mr. malone today, he has concerns i understand a lot of people think we will never have inflation. my pushback is it is there, but we just choose not to acknowledge it it all of the money pumped in, there will be inflation. i hope dan is right we won't have higher interest rates, but there may not be a choice. the fed may have to move and raise rates against these zombie companies we are talking about that won't be able to service debt, that is not good it won't happen next week or in the first quarter of the year. but this is a conversation we will be having and in my opinion
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is negative for the markets. >> mark calls it a ponzi finance theme. mark, great to have you with us and great to speak with you. i will kick it off with the same question i asked guy when does this become a problem if the fed is always going to be there? the fed has always been there. >> the fed is always there when you have debt you have four options, pay it back, restructure it, default on it or you can devalue u it by destroying your currency no way these companies could pay back the debt so they are not going to do that they can't restructure it because none of the holders will restructure. they can't default because then they are out of business, lose their job. same thing with governments, so they will not default on the debt
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so the only choice is to devalue u the currency which is what the fed has been doing they will continue to do that. that's why you see gold and bitcoin doing so extremely well. before people's eyes you are having your eyes stolen through inflation and that is not inflation of goods and services, it's inflation of money and money is being devalued. over the last three years stocks are up about 3% per year not that great but if you denominate in gold rather than dollars, they are down 44% if you denominate in bitcoin, it's way worse >> mark, you are an investor do you invest in any of these zombie companies i don't want to lead the audience to believe these are not good companies because a lot of them have been decent trades.
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>> we have been short most of the companies on your list a company like macy's -- not in terms of the business, but in terms of the asset value of their future as long as interest rates don't rise -- and i don't think they will i think all of them are going negative just like japan and europe eventually even chinese interest rates will be negative there is no way out. exxonmobil has been a short for four or five years a industrial conglomerate is not a good long. we are mostly long and short our funds are only about 50% net exposed to equities today it has been good to be short some of the bad companies this
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year >> this is tim i agree with the criticism of the fed and devalue of the currency if the dollar is being deval and the yen is being deval -- i heard what you said about bitcoin. but all of the currencies are going down together. in that sense, for most people who aren't trading other asset classes, is the net effect zero? >> it is an important question and right analysis if you three years ago when we started talking about this and that's when you and i had our first experience when i said the market was 50% overvalued, but if you go back three
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percent. if you bought gold you are up about 6% it is the holder of zero assets. think about zimbabwe you didn't want to own that because the fed got destroyed. the fed has declared war on the u.s. dollar in march that was their only choice if you look at the money printed, the d, x, y could fall as much as 20% that could be a strong headwind for stocks and on top of that you have competitive devaluations around the world. look how much the ecb has been printing the only one doing well is china
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because they are playing a different game a talk for another day >> always good talking to you. i think all of the panethe members of this panel are blaming the feds >> i am not blaming him at all i take a slightly different stance to guy calling them the villains i see where he is coming from. if the fed didn't do what they did in february and march, we would be in a depression right now. i don't really have a problem with that at the end of the day. but what i have a problem with is not being able to put the connection between the monetary and stimulus when we have a lag and we know how important small businesses are to me it doesn't make sense. i think fed chair powell begged
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the treasury and white house to do a deal, give a guy a break and get to a bridge on the other side of the vaccine. >> fire eye is moving after hours. eric >> cyber security company fire eye seem to have jumped 9% after announcing an investment from blackstone it will be done through stock which can be converted to common stock at $15 per share fire eye also announced the acquisition of software, the automatic company. >> guy
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>> fire eye we have talked about a while in cyberspace. they have pulled back. the levels are the high we saw on august 9 if memory serves i think that's what the high was back in january. i will stand by fire eye i think black stone is on to something. when you talk about some of the smarter people in the room, i think black stone fits that category a company whose market cap is about 3.5 billion, so stay with fire eye >> they are astute investors doubling down. if you lock at everything from retail to payment processing we have seen everything move to digit tal and i think that is the future and i think fire eye
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welcome back popping after hours, let's hear from bertha. >> another blowout doing more than a dollar better than the estimate. it's 17th streak quarter of meeting or beating expectations. 1.75 billion in revenues, well above the estimate as well and about 100 million shy of their record quarter last year it's just continuing to show the strength of home the company has not missed since 2016, august on any of its comps. overall comps, williams-sonoma up a record 30%.
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pottery barn and west elm up better than 20%. digital commerce up 9% we talked about the strength of home, but on the call just now, the ceo says she blows they are also well positioned to take market share she thinks they are on pace for 300 million in business sales this year. she thinks that could be a $1 billion business in five years they are firing on all cylinders and trading close to their all-time high. >> thank you, bertha this happening on a day where we had strong numbers, record low mortgage rates so this whole thing is working >> it's extraordinary. back to williams-sonoma, 24.2
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overall. expectation was 10.2 growth margins were up 410 basis points whatever you go to them to buy -- and we have talked about that on the show, but that's a fun nugget for somebody else this is not an expensive stock if you look where a lot of these trades go, with home improvements and equity, i would not be selling this one yet. >> are you willing that there are only so many fur throws you can buy and pots and pans. >> i see what you are doing, melissa. i am not going down that road. >> people only need one set of
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pots and pans for years if they take care of them. >> lock at their operating margins 15.7%. last year was 7.5% why is it important? you have tremendous sales growth and that will lead to better margins. if we had access to the cranberry song linger, which we don't and i won't sing it, i could tie this whole thing together but what i will say is this a stock that analysts will have to look at again and rerate it and i can almost guarantee that over the next couple days you will see analysts trade their price target >> that is a bold statement, that this is a stock that deserves a rerating. bonawyn, do you agree? >> i tend to agree you would be crazy not to pay
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attention to what is going on. williams-sonoma fits into the upper echelon. they appeal to a higher end consumer you are seeing that. i think this is a lasting trend. on an anecdotal point guy was over he said i am not coming over if we are eating off paper plates and bean bags. so he has implored me to make the space comfortable for quite sometime i think home is where the heart, play and everything else will be because of those things it deserves a rerating. >> look at guy's background. he has a knack for decorating. he has the pillows going on. he is the right guy taking
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advice, bonawyn. breaking news. governor newsom has set a curfew because of covid cases we saw a reaction when new york city announced they would close schools. that may seem parochial, but a lot of money is managed out on the coast. it has a mental impact >> that brings us back to the depths of the pandemic in february, march and april and we saw a lot of states like california, new york, take mitigation steps and were starting to open up by the summer we know what that did to a lot of different industries. even the zombie companies we were just talking about, the longer this goes on and the
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dysfunction in the transition which could turn into dysfunction with the dissemination of the vaccine, we could be in a tough spot all of that being said, it keeps the fed accommodate i have and might put pressure on a lame-duck congress to get a deal done none of us want to go back to quarantines or lockdowns there will be a severe impact. >> tomorrow i expect you would look at the pandemic stocks and lock to them versus others, like the airlines, tim. >> you will. i think airlines have been rallying in the face of, unfortunately, record covid numbers because there is a sense you can see the other side as i said last night, this conversation with airlines is no longer about liquidity
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it's about recovery and the extent the main street dynamic here is awful. this will put a lot of small businesses out because where we are going to be for the next six weeks, think about the period what they are doing in the capitals of california and new york, they are closing down for the holidays which is probably the right thing to do, but this is when small businesses make their most money it is very sad the markets are pricing in recovery i don't disagree with that there is a lot of businesses -- even macy's. they did well in covid once they got digitally aligned. their bricks and mortar stores still aren't doing well.
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here is what is coming up next >> the race for a covid vaccine is fast and furious. what does that mean for the biotech stocks we will be joined by a top analyst who says don't give these a shot and betting shares will streamigr. hhe that trade ahead we have that and more when "fast money" returns plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, you're still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and co-insurance, but they often have higher
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now for the free decision guide from humana. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network, to find out if you can save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana - a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "fast money. i want to get you up to date on the breaking news. california imposing a curfew from 10:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. starting this saturday
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we are tracking the latest coronavirus numbers. the seven-day average jumping more than 25% since last woke week that prompting the cdc to urge all americans to stay at home this thanksgiving. promising vaccine news from pfizer and moderna new data from morning store showing a whopping amount of dollars flowing into this. but our next guest says you may have missed the boat on some of these leoing health care stocks. these companies are saving humanity and you say you expect softness into the year end as well asnext year >> thanks for having me. in are too many programs that
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the data is not that cut and dried across the bored i think wh -- the board i think next year, the supply chain and pricing, all of those pose to be problematic >> when you say the data isn't cut and dry, are you speaking about the data from pfizer as well as moderna? >> yeah. we have only seen interim results from those trials. we still have safety to go i am fairly confident the safety will wind up being good. we are looking at them as being a snapshot in time we are looking on an efficacy basis. how these patients fare down the line, there are still too many
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variables to make a call that they have to be owned at these prices >> a lot of americans listened to that data and thought these were going to be the silver bullets, so to speak are you saying data could come out later on that shows these vaccines aren't 95% effective? >> i think it's totally possible we are only lockioking at about0 patients in each trial the pfizer study and moderna study now have more than 100,000 patients i expect that number to go down, maybe 80 or 85%. i think we are talking about numbers that degrigate a little over time.
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>> are you thinking one or both of these vaccines will be woidly available in 2021 and when we view we have an inoculated population here in the u.s we spent a lot of toim talkiime about timetables and bridge to vaccine, but it seems like the model is suner on my side of the business, where the consensus is for the mass production, mass distribution will occur. i think most models show a first quarter unveiling of a vaccine the supply chain has never dealt with something this dramatic in terms of this many injections for the public at these
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temperatures we are talking about negative 20 or 30 degrees they will have to be stored at, at least initially. i think the expectation this will be an early 2021 event is a little too optimistic. i think spring and summer will be more realistic, but early '21 will prove to be too optimistic. >> i want to get to your point in the note, pricing right now people are paying $20 to 40 a dose, but you are expecting that comes down dramatically in line with other vaccines in the past >> i don't think investors are paying that much attention to. there is a flu vaccine available to all of us every year and goes for a dollar or two depending on
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the manufacturer that includes the h1n1 vaccine so i am not sure how the government as the biggest purchaser of these vaccines in 2021 and probably 2022 will with stand that type of pressure if companies are going to charge $40 per regimen for the vaccine. i would think it has to come down wildly over time and especially with competitors in the market affidav as t ast ast astro trazenica. >> thank you, jared. the other point is he doesn't want to be long stocks in the manufacturing phase. i think that's important, too, tim. >> we speak about this all of the time
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it's almost absurd to think that investors would be making a play based on the vaccine we don't know the progression, the timeline or cost involved. that's the dynamic if you want a one size fits all, jnj is the name you go for their pharmacy business is growing higher, but their medical devices business that has stabilized, their testing business i think j & j has been an underperformer coming up, elon musk what is he into now? plusea hvy metals.
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the chart toppers when he would return ♪ when disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. that's the nature of humanity. ♪ it has encouraged other people to take the time for each other.
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♪ ♪
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welcome back shares of tesla higher today elon musk was out taking shots
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at the competition phil, thank you for what you said when i read it, i thought he is digging. >> somebody wrote and this is what he wrote. nothing majorly like get away from spacs that is sage advice. anybody would say that given that they are not close to profitability. and yet it makes you wonder that we have seen nine ev related spacs announced this year. the market cap of those four is $22 billion. we will show you how those have done in the last month you could argue that a lot of the play is higher so many of
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those moving higher. but it is interesting to say will spacs move higher they are prerevenue right now. so will they have revenue at all? general motors out regarding electric vehicles. they are increasing their investment by 35%. gm is saying no excuses. if we are going to make a move, we will do it. 30 new ev models by 2025, 2/3 of those in north america and driving down the battery cost by 60% by the middle of the decade. the number that really stands out. they plan to sell one million evs by the middle of the decade. it's execution time. they have laid out a strong blueprint and it looked good on paper. now can they deliver >> they have been promising to
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do this for quite sometime >> they have been promising and investing in electric vehicles if you watched the presentation, it was barclay's conference. this is the most declarative mary barra has been in saying we will succeed in electric vehicles we know what we are doing and will have the model that connect. people are saying we have seen the hummer we want to drive it and feel it. will the market be there will there be enough people who want to buy a million evs by 2025 >> thank you, phil tim, i know you will go gm this is the most declarative they have been about their ev plan do you buy this? >> i am long i have felt in the last 18 months the ev strategy -- and
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this is not counting autonomous. i think the move to bring the company forward. everybody loves a hummer, but that's not the story here. think about the declaration and deliveries if you think about the third party licensing, they are actually claiming they have technology they will be licensing to other players this is a company that has gotten lean. they are very profitable now and are pushing out and putting resources. one of the big problems with tesla has not been technology. it has been execution. we talk about one of the originals who are in a position to deliver there is no reason elon should be laughing at people based on the money he is putting in his pocket but gm is bringing a level of
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credibility people didn't expect in the company certainly not in the share price. >> earnings alert. >> melissa, shares jumped as much as 5% they reversed those gains on comments from the cfo. he said -- she said that headwinds due to covid remain and given their subscription model, those headwinds will be evident. shares have more than doubled from march lows, but momentum has slowed in recent months as
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investors take stock of demand and valuation. the team did sound optimistic on the call regarding its cloud finance business and said there is more opportunity as digital renovation slipped from the front office to the back office. lastly, do not miss jim cramer tonight. no doubt we will get more detail >> we will be watching "mad money" tonight what do you say? >> here is the thing back in february and march, this stock got cut in half. down nearly 50% when there was concerns about enterprise spending during the pandemic now it's up 40%. 70 times next year's earnings. it is kind of an expensive
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stock. it has held in there the cautious goidanuidance does wind up being that bad i think it is a buy at the 200 level. and last month down 25% on worst than expected guidance for this stock, i think it's okay coming up, is there more room for a gain. and later, streaming higher. after a short break.
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♪ the metals market has been shining this year with silver, gold and copper. if you are looking to invest, our next guest will give us a look >> i want to set up the sector emerging markets over materials. a lot of the materials companies sourcing raw materials from emerging markets emerging markets relative to s&p
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are gaining steam. names strongly rotating into leadership chart is looking solid and put in higher low. brought up and through down trend resistance another ten days from now a monthly close of 20 bucks. company with 80% of profits from copper copper looking sharp same deal, above 3 bucks in copper if we can maintain that numont is the strongest with exposure to gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead again, we are seeing some of these material stocks, with the
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market, he would may see inflation. last is alb. lithium mining for batteries 21% of global production it's very much in play again, solid up trend. monthly resistance all of the way up to $200 >> thank you, todd bonawyn, your favorite here? >> i like scf. i like the way they have been trading. what that company does is gives you protection of a downside he would talk about how an emerging market outperforms and pressure on the dollar and gives you exposure to the reopening recovery i have been looking at fcx
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great analysis on his part >> guy >> citi just upgraded the stock. i believe they put $132 on it. i think you know how i feel about gold i think numont mining is the place to be. freeport, we have mentioned it a number of times over the last six months tremendous run, feels like it's long i don't think it is. i think fcx will continue. >> john malone sat down with david earlier today about roku and here is what he said >> i think the people who have the platforms, in addition to the content or only the platforms, like roku, are in
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pretty good position to build a long-term profitable global business >> comments also generated a lot of bullish buzz in the options market mike, what did you see >> so we saw about three times the average daily call volume on the bullish remarks he made. options expiring tomorrow and a week from tomorrow they are betting that the rally will continue next week. >> dan, your take on roku? >> it is making a new all time high risking 2% of the stock price. that seems to be the way to play it it is not something i am particularly a fan of. >> for more options action, tune in tomorrow at 5:30 eastern time coming up next, your final trades turn on my tv and boom,
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it is time for the final trade. tim seymour?
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>> an auto company that will have a better selling ev vehicle than gm is ford. we have given guidance there probably a better chart than gms. check out ford >> i like that mustang mache coming out from ford i know the srt is making more highs. i think this will be a promotional quarter and a tough one. >> keeping with the metals thing i am looking at gex. testing around $35 bucks if it holds that, i think you continue to see the base it was in june. look for upside there. >> guy >> so if you had to pick a zombie song there, she's not there or time of the season, what would you pick? i am curious folks at home might want to know >> the former. >> that's what i thought as
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well it's amazing the job you do with classic rock we mentioned the cranberries the band is a big fan of the show delores reardan we lost to my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to coach and to call you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or twee

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