seat but goldman sachs, the financials, are actually breaking out. >> okay. degas? >> best buy. they are going to surprise single digits on eps. >> they report today after the bell we'll look -- or tomorrow. steve weis, finish us out with a name >> moderna they will get some good news this week i believe on the phase three. >> good stuff. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott, and welcome to "the exchange" everybody. forgot merger monday it's medicine monday now for the third week in a row we woke up to promising results on a covid-19 vaccine but the market reaction is getting more and more muted is all the positivity baked? plus good news for airlines in that more people are traveling, but bad news for industry as covid keeps spreading. casinos cutting capacity and california curbing on restaurants. we've got all the details. and whales who have thrown their weight behind a crypt currency and fueled its recent

gains and we start with the markets, muted though they are dom chu has more on that >> muted but still green medicine mondays do translate into gains for the market overall, and we're floating to -- towards kind of the best levels of the day so far, just off them the dow industrials off by 2,200 points we're up three-quarters of 1%. the s&p 500 up one-third of 1%, 35790 last trade and the nasdaq composite lagging so to speak today, only up about 1/10 of 1%. 118790 key mark that we're watching there so far. the banks, a key focus because as the economic recovery story starts to take hold because of positivity around vaccines and everything else with the covid trajectory, those banks that are most levered towards the u.s. economy seem to be better near medium term. comerica in the midwest up about 2% and capital one financial, a play on the consumer side of things, up 4% today as well. remember, they have been lag yards so far this year, and then

if you're looking for some of those retail plays, we're near the highs of the day, names like macy's, north strom's and gap. macy's up 16%. nordstrom, same kind of situation there. the national retail federation, a big trade organization that represents these retailers says the holiday shopping season could see gains between 3.6% and 5.2% over the same time last year so kelly even with the pandemic, the nrf says consumers will spend more this holiday season that's helping to push those retail stocks towards the highs of the day it. i'll send things back over to you. >> yeah. those are some big moves and we've seen it time and again, dom, on this positive news flow. we appreciate it our dom chu back at headquarters we're 3 for 3 on monday vaccine news with astrazeneca announcing the details of its vaccine efficacy and regeorgeon 2 with a promising treatment

breakthrough meg, let's start with the astrazeneca vaccine. will everyone get the 90% version? >> reporter: that's the question let's look at how they had sort of these two different efficacy rates in this trial. one, as you said was 90% and that was in a group of patients who got just a half dose on the first dose of the vaccine and then they got a full dose a week later whereas those who got two full doses in the trial had a 62% efficacy rate so the company says it is working through those data now and figuring out obviously how to make sure the efficacy is as high as possible. astrazeneca said they saw no hospitalizations among the people who got the vaccine suggesting that the vaccine could be very protective against severe disease though we have to see further data other thing that differentiates the astrazeneca is it can be stored at a regular refrigerator for up to six month so that really improves the sort of distribution possibilities, particularly to rural areas. now, how does this really stack up or compare in terms of the status of vaccines that we've

been seeing phase three results on so, of course, we have the final efficacy for pfizer and moderna as well, and experts would say you can't compare apples to apples across trials but the numbers are looking around 95% efficacy for both pfizer and moderna, and they are moving through the regulatory process here in the u.s. pfizer, of course, has submitted and they have a meeting of outside advisers with the fda on november 10th and moderna is expected to submit to the fda soon now astrazeneca because it has the more mixed data and because these trials come from outside the u.s. they will have to talk to the fda about what is the path forward for them here and what more data might be needed so tbd on that there's also differences among the vaccines in terms of how much they cost are and you can kind of deduce the price per dose of these vaccines based on the supply agreements that they have struck at least here in the united states. astrazeneca is the lowest. they did get support from the u.s. government but you're looking at less than $4 a dose if you take in the development support that they got as well.

pfizer, of course, did not take development support from operation warp speed they struck that supply deal so they are getting almost $20 a dose and for moderna, their supply deal is about $15 a doze but if you add in the billion dollars almost that they have received from the u.s. government it's about 25, and for smaller volume agreements they could be striking deals at $37 a dose so quite a span there for all the vaccines finally, we'll just talk about the remember jenneron quickly. they got emergency use authorization for their covid cocktail, the second drug to get out on the market after eli lilly's but supply will be limited at the beginning this is indicated for people who have just been diagnosed with covid-19, who have mild to moderate disease, who are at high risk of being hospitalized or seeing severe disease and because supply is limited it's for the high-risk groups at the beginning. kelly? >> yeah. megan, you know, i encourage everyone to go back and watch the executive interviews that you did this morning but my

takeaways from regeorgeon on the one hand were that their treatment could be really useful in terms of preventing the spread of covid, maybe even plea venting covid itself from aft zeneca i thought it was interesting how, you know, they are learning as well about the dosage combination that makes it more effective, so some really interesting stuff in both of those, but here's my question for you. you know, here we have these scientific trials that, you know, these are not embargoed, you know, sort of monthly data releases from the u.s. government why is that -- they are being released all of them on monday morning, three monday mornings in a row i mean what, explains that timing >> that's such a good question, kell, and that's not something that had occurred to me to ask, but i don't know if it's that these data safety monitoring boards meet on fridays and look at the data, and if that's what happens and they look at it over the weekend and then, you know, they announce on monday morning but in all of the anecdotes

we've heard about the companies learning about the data with pfizer and moderna, for example, they are getting the call on sunday and then releasing the information on monday morning. >> right. >> so perhaps it's something about when the data boards meet. >> it's just interesting to me that it's one after the other after the other. it's not like we got two at one time and then there was a break or why we don't get them in the middle of the week do we know anything about who might be next, meg who is left? >> yeah. so johnson & johnson is in phase three here in the united states. i think getting the data on monday of next week would be earlier than most people are expecting, but when we're 3 for 3 on vaccine mondays, i'll be up early monday morning and ready in case it comes. >> yeah, exactly i imagine you have to keep that phone close by all night just in case meg, thanks so much for all the work you've been doing for us. really appreciate it that's our meg drill, and all of that positive vaccine news is giving markets, well, a slight

boost. the dow surged 835 points and futures were up 800 points, on moderna's news the dow jumped 471 points today, well, we were up as much as 300 but we're paergt numbers now with the dow up 235. what does that tell us about what the market has priced in? joining us is nancy taylor and the chief investment officer at center stone investors great to have you both here. nancy, what does it tell you about the markets? in some ways it seems like this is an inokayration against the bad covid news but we have to imagine that widespread distribution of a vaccine is more or less priced in, right? >> i have to think so, kelly i think the market is starting to look through the near-term effects of the vaccine and getting people back to normal, if you will, despite the rising cases, and i think that's manifested through a lot of the

underlying fundamentals. the pmis have been good and capacity utization and production numbers have been consistently good five out of the past six months. if you look at the consumer and free cash flow and balance sheets in fabulous shape, pent-up demand with all the savings that's gone on this year, though it's declined somewhat, the savings level, we still are above normals and then you've got the housing market which, you know, despite its rally, the average american or cumulative american has about to trillion in equity to 10 trillion in mortgages so there's a lot of good news flowing behind the disease and the vaccine, and i think the market is starting to anticipate stronger earnings in 2021. >> okay. the abe, looking through some of the names you like, granger, brunswick, 3-m, these seem like they are geared towards being reopening plays, right so, again, is if this market is kind of looking through to vaccine distribution, doesn't it

also have to be looking through that faiz of the stocks that are, working and starting to leave the stay-at-home trades behind though as we saw last week, you know, on any given day you can all of a sudden have a big reversal and zoom is up 6% again. >> yeah. i mean, there's probably a couple of phases that we have to look forward to here the stock market probably discounted too much too quickly and has been doing a lot of that these days and there's an intermediate stage where, you know, i think even astrazeneca says 100 million a month it will take a while to roll this out to the entire world you might see the so-called herd immunity before we get the vaccine fully rolled out regardless if i'm looking at the stock market as a collection of individual stocks rather than -- rather than like this monolith we at center stone continue to find plenty of things to buy there's a lot of undershoot and overshoot on the momentum drive by stock market investors in certain industries and there was

a complete overshoot on the way down for most industrial companies and we're starting to see what looks like more of a durable recovery, global recovery, cyclical recovery, one which has the ability and potential of even surviving if not thriving during the next couple of months as this season gets on here for the most part the most interesting ideas all over the world. >> nancy, i'll end by asking you why you kind of pound the table on honeywell in particular right now. why is that so emblematic of where the market is today? >> well, i think that this is a company that is in a number of the recovery -- you know, the reopening segments of the market like aerospace, but they have also managed to digitize their business in a way that makes them look a little bit more like a technology company and a little bit less like a cyclical industrial company extraordinarily well-managed, and they have raised the dividend, you know, the last 11 years which is really emblematic

of management's confidence in future earnings so we've been big on this growth at a reasonable price trade for the last six, nine months, and i think it's kept us out of the value versus growth debate and benefited our underlying portfolios. >> yeah, yeah, at least that way it doesn't drive you crazy talking about it back and for the all the time as we read in "journal" today dividends are coming back. thank you both for joining me today. appreciate it. >> thank you. more than 100 economists are urging washington to send out another round of direct stimulus checks remember, it was once a foregone conclusion but we've seen since that discussion go nowhere economists want this aimed at low-income households. ylan mui has more for us. >> reporter: the full list is now up to 125 economists, and they are calling direct checks one of the quickest most equitable and most effective ways to prop up american households during the pandemic the letter reads we know that

the next stimulus needs to be big, immediate and direct and lasting until the economy recovers now the letter does not say exactly how big those checks should be, but it does emphasize that direct payments do work best when they are target it had at the bottom half of households, and that could help quell some criticism about the first round of stimulus checks which is that a lot of people who got them didn't really need them, and that's going to be important because congress is facing a lot of competing priorities right now just today the chairman of the house ways and means committee richie neal called for an extension of expiring unemployment benefits. meanwhile president-elect joe biden and democratic leadership have discussed the possibility of a lame duck covid relief package that includes money to fight the virus, relief for families and small businesses, state and local aid, jobless benefits and health care and the question before congress right now is if the political reality means that you can't do everything, which policies are going to get you the most bang for your buck? back to you.

>> all right ylan, thank you very much with the state of palau let's bring in a former federal reserve economist and a co-signor of this open letter. claudia, it's good to have you, and to me anecdotally the sign of people's there in this top sick that every time that you look at youtube one of the top ten trending topics is second stimulus checks and are they coming what would you say the odds are right now? >> so i think they are important to have it happen. i think we've seen -- since this summer the odds against more relief, there is a heightened partisan environment in washington, but the american people need more help, and it has become obvious in recent weeks with the case counts mounting, the improvements and people getting back to work are slowing, people need money they need some support, and congress knows how to do it. they got to get it done.

>> how much would it cost, claudia? what kind of sort of big picture number are we talking about, because when they are going down and saying, okay, the pot of money is going to be 600 or 700 or 1.1 trillion, whatever the number is, how much would your version of these direct checks cost >> the first round of the checks that went out earlier this year cost $300 billion. the if they were more targeted, it could be a little bit less than that. frankly, i think targeted is hard right now because millions of americans have lost income this year, and the irs does not have it up to date, but whatever we can do to get the money out is worthwhile. it is one part of relief discussions that have a lot of non-partisan support it is not that hard. you ask americans do you want another 1,200, 500 per kid, they are going to say yes, and we're going to empower them to use that money for what they need most right now that is the biggest bang for the buck that you can imagine.

>> yeah. the popularity i think is no surprise what is interesting is the trade-offs, so if we say, okay, there's funds from the ppp program that are left over and can be repurpose pedestrian or, you know, if it comes down to should we do these checks instead of another round of ppp or instead of the restaurant act or hotel industry aid, why should these take priority when as you've mentioned there's targeting questions and it's really hard to know who actually needs them the most to make sure that those people get the most help. >> right i mean, this is hard the trade-offs are real. i think you've got to go to stuff that's up at the top of the list priorities, things we know how to do, things we know work well. the way the system is set up if congress passed them and we set more direct payments they would be in people's bank accounts within a week. we could really use a shot in the arm right now. it is true i would like to see a relief

package with trillions, "s" at the end and yet that doesn't look likely right now, and we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. i do think that there's a case for getting money to families, getting money to small businesses, especially those in leisure, hospitality, places we know are hard hit, and we've got to get the long-term unemployed through this winter. this is a hard time, and it is unconscionable to cut off money to the hardest hit, but frankly a lot of americans are being hit hard. >> no, absolutely, and i think, again, it's a question of do you target those industries that are most affected to make sure that, you know, the people there don't end up in worst shape versus sending the checks to households directly thanks for making the case as the talks hopefully get a second wind to them appreciate you joining us today. >> great thank you so much. >> claudia sahm with the prospects of direct stimulus checks. coming up, the china

challenge the new administration will look to build global alliances but could the nice neighbor approach hurt our ability to confront our biggest partner china. and one strategist says the worst is yet to come in the municipali market with downgrades and budget shortfalls on the horizon and nevada cuts capacity in order to avoid a complete shutdown but is it too late we're back after this. things are a little different this school year it's different because i have to talk to a computer. i get like 6 emails a day... olivia please turn your screen on. okay, lift the... there you go. mondays remote, tuesdays at school... it's the other way around. we might not be able to solve everything. but we can help make sure students and teachers can stay connected to learning. it's why at&t has connected more than 200 million students to brighter futures.

welcome back president-elect joe biden's cabinet is taking shape. veteran diplomat anthony blinken was named secretary of state earlier today. he severed as aizeder and deputy secretary of state under the obama administration "the wall street journal" describing him as a foreign policy centrist whose priorities would include rebuilding u.s. relationships around the globe, but after four years of america first policies is rebuilding our global alliances a better way to confront china or will it actually blunt our ability to do so let's bring in the chief strategist at the clack tower group. marco, great to have you back. going back to 2012 you wrote about this new cold war between the u.s. and china long before many others came to the same conclusion what do you expect happens, and, again, for all the american multi-nationals listening to this right now, what is a biden

administration most likely to bring? is it going to be it the appearance of calm but a deterioration of america's strength in this relationship? >> well, i think there's only so much that policy-makers can do to reduce their constraints, and i think appointing tony blinken is a good step towards mitigating some of the constraints that the biden administration is going to face, but if you're, you know, a "c" suite executive in a multi-national corporation right now, you have to understand that the -- the duration in relationship is structural and that it's going to be difficult for the biden administration to play the two-level game, you know, between beijing and their domestic opposition. >> the reason why i think people are talking about this so much right now is we have a lot of people out there saying you absolutely want to own stocks with china exposure right now. it's going to be a friendlier relationship between these two countries. there's not going to be any risk of, you know, business being undermined by some of our

geopolitical objectives. i mean, do you think that that's right that people can kind of comfortably own whether it's the handbag names or estee lauder or the big, you know, manufacturing companies, that those who rely on doing business with china should expect to do quite well. >> so both yes and know, unfortunately. yes there is a structural impediment and constraint to further trade war blowing up i don't think, that you know, in 2012 it was time to predict a deterioration in relationship, but we're eight years removed from that. that forecast came true. we cannot simply extrapolate is linearly there's risk to making the relationship worse on a 12-month horizon what will matter more for that basket of stocks is what's happening domestically, and it's pretty clear the chinese policy-makers are trying to signal to us through multiple avenues that they intend to leverage the economy and do not expect to keep stimulating

in fact, very similar to the report that ylan made earlier about what's happening in the u.s. >> so if that's the case though, i mean, china is still the economy that's owe merging first, fastest and arguably the strongest from the global pandemic i mean, that is puts them in a pretty powerful position to dictate the terms of commerce over the next couple of years, doesn't it the stock market has priced that had in already if you look at the performance of chinese stocks this year, it's been stellar, but notice that csi 300, for example, has not really done that much since boyden was elected only up about 2, and i think that that's, you know, telling us, chinese stocks have already done what they are going to do, already priced in this advantage that china has in resolving covid first. going forward there's going to be more of a range-bound market in terms of chinese equities, not so much because of a u.s.-china relationship but more so because policy-makers are focusing on antitrust. they are going after big tech and there's a huge stroke of

risk they are setting three red lines on the real estate and property developers and also they have introduced some volatility in the corporate bond market, onshore corporate bond market, that's likely to leave to further agita in the market as well. >> you've indicated what parts of the chinese markets to avoid. what would you say is best positioned just kind of put a point on that what is well-positioned for this area that we're heading into, and what other places would you warn investors about >> so, first of all i would say in terms of the chinese market, definitely consumer plays are going to do well anything that the chinese policy-makers have sort of introduced tailwinds, to innovation, tech we've seen, for example, the chinese, you know, tesla challenger do extremely well those kind of plays are probably going to do well over the next 12 months regardless of the de-leveraging points that i've raised in terms of the broader

implications of chinese de-leveraging, if chinese total social financing so there's broad measure credit drops from the current 13.5% annual growth to something like 10%, east asian plays are likely not going to do well so whether it's south korean market, taiwanese, broader sort of em asia is going to struggle if china takes a step back. the other question that i have is what is the interplay of chinese de-leveraging in a world where next year we also have less fiscal stimulus in the u.s., at least less than what the market expect, what does that mean for the u.s. dollar, that's going to be a very difficult question to answer, and i think, and i'm a bear on the u.s. dollar over the next decade, we're in a bear market but over the next few months dollar could catch a bid and catch some of the reflation trades off guard and although i'm bullish over the next cycle, bullish commodities, em, all that stuff if you're a long-term institutional investor i think

it makes sense over the next six months some of the reflation trades that we've gotten addicted to might suffer. >> that's fascinating, marco, because we've covered the dollar here a lot lately and whether it's going up and down and both in the short and long run. thank you so much for all the nuance that you provided today really appreciate it. >> it's a pleasure. >> coming up, despite warnings about holiday travel, americans are still getting on planes. we'll look at who is benefitting from that. but from stan druckenmiller to rick reider and bill miller, the big monies becoming more of a believer in bitcoin. now there's two unlikely new whales in your market, not your typical investor all the details coming up. don't forget, always watch us live on the go using the cnbc app. "the exchange" is back in two minutes. some hot cocoa?

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from humana. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network, to find out if you can save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. humana - a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "the exchange." markets are rallying right now, but, you know, given the vaccine news this morning, nothing like we saw on the pfizer breakthrough a couple weeks ago. dow up 313 at session highs and up 220, dow the outperformer so definitely a rotational play today. energy is the big outperformer in the sectors today it's jumping more than 4%. financials and industrials are also leading on the flip side health care and utilities, those are the lag yards and interesting that technology isn't really getting

hit that, that hard. i hear some of the individual movers shares of roku are higher after needham raised its price target from 255 to 315 make it the new street high. accelerating cord-cutting coupled with multiple devices in homes, some of the upgrades, roku shares are up 5% and more than 100% this year. shares of boeing is higher on news that europe is set town ground the 737 max in january. it cams after the faa officially ungrounded the jet here last week boeing nearly 5% gain. that's good for 60 something points on the dow. finally, take a look at tes larks the stock hitting an all-time intraday high, up 27% in a week. web bush raising its target on the stock to 560 says its new bold-case target is $1,000 that's a newsplit. they are saying a $5,000 price target on a pre-split basis, incredible tesla up 6% today. let's get to sue herera now for our cnbc news update >> hi, kelly

good to sigh here's what's happening at this hour saying general motors strongly agrees with president-elect's biden's goal of reviving the american auto industry by moving to electric industry, the ceo mary berra says they are no longer stopping the trump administration era for setting its open emission rules and hopes other utomakers. president trump is critical of lawmakers saying trump is claiming of broad conspiracies being made by rudy giuliani and recently removed lawyer sydney powell according to one source trump thinks his legal team is made up of, quote, fools the that are making him lock bad, end quote, and president trump's biggest wall street backer says it's time to move on. in a statement blackstone's co-founder steve schwarzman says the election outcome is now certain and he is ready to help biden rebuild the economy after

covid. you are up to date, kelly. that's the news update i'll send it back to you >> all right sue, thank you so much sue herera. ahead the nation's biggest economy is in turmoil. los angeles county is shutting outdoor dining as covid-19 cases spike. residents are fighting back. we've got that story plus $65 billion float into the muni market in october despite some huge budget holes at america's largest cities is the market overlooking big risk especially as the fed pulls back we'll discuss in a couple. stay with us labradoodles, cronuts, skorts. (it's a skirt... and shorts) the world loves a hybrid. so do businesses. so, today they're going hybrid with ibm.

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i trust 'em. i think you can too. call now! welcome back the number of covid cases does continue to surge across the country with hospitalizations setting a record for the 13th day in a row we're seeing more and more restrictions as a rough. we have team coverage tracking the economic impact today. phil lebeau is in chicago with how airlines are dealing with crowd and concerns contessa brewer has the late on nevada's casino crackdown and aditi roy is looking at l.a.'s fallout from banning indoor dining phil, we'll start with you. >> reporter: a relatively quiet

monday other at o'hare but there's no doubt that the pre-thanksgiving travel rush issin off. the passenger levels this weekend across the country, the best since before the pandemic began back in march. we're looking at passenger levels being down 57% this weekend, an average of a million people were flying every day last weekend that along with the relatively positive news regarding a possible vaccine from astrazeneca has the airline stocks moving higher today as you take a look at the airline stocks keep in mind they are looking at thanksgiving week to be down anywhere from 50% to 55%. it's not great, but they will take it relative to where they have been which is down 65% leading up to this week. kelly, back to you. >> you know, phil, everyone's struggling with the safety of traveling whether it's by plane or by train if they are, you know, getting together this week. >> yeah. >> have the airlines differed in

how they are tackling this, or is it pretty uniform in terms of what they are doing these days >> well, there's some slight variations between the different airlines in terms of expressing to their customers the steps that they are taking to ensure their safety in the airport, at the gate and then when they get on board but generally speaking the airlines have all come out with the same approach you've got to wear your mask the planes are all being disinfected. they are being wiped down and are trying to take as many steps as possible to ensure for their customers that it's safe to fly. the. >> yeah, and there's american leading the way up nearly 6 boston today surely helped by the vaccine news phil, thank you so much. our phil lebeau at he hear in chicago. casinos, meanwhile, are facing tighter restrictions from shorter hours to reduced capacity the gaming stocks have surge off their march lows, up double or even triple from then. so what happens now? contessa brewer is here with the latest for us. contessa >> reporter: hithere, kelly.

nevada's governor has order casinos in that state to reduce their maximum occupancy from 50% to 25% starting tomorrow he's issued a three-week pause of course, he's trying to avoid a total economic shutdown like the one they had this spring nevada's daily new coronavirus cases have surpassed 2,000 this week in the past casinos have argued that they struggle to break even at 25% capacity because that occupancy limit also has to include employ eds and the rollback is particularly troubling for las vegas, the strip, which has struggled to regain tourism especially in that mid-week part that's where group businesses, conventions, conferences, sales meetings or the lack thereof really matter. so poor in fact is mid-week visitation that mgm has just announced mandalay bay and the mirage will close monday and thursday including the palazzo owned by las vegas sands and

encore owned by wynn doing the same thing definitely not the direction these companies were hoping to go this holiday season but even before coronavirus this is in fact their slow season, and if they can manage to book 25% capacity, hey, they would take it feel pretty happy about it kelly? >> maybe that explains the stock price reaction, contessa, where we're not seeing declines. we're still seeing small gains but it's interesting when they lower it to 25% that several of them choose not to be open at all. >> well, and in fact they are closing it down to try and manage their expenses, but one other thing that they mentioned to me is that this discourages the local businesses that have gotten sloppy known forcing social distancing it and the like, it ten forces the local businesses to do it which could lift the -- the restrictions for all businesses dom what may. the other thing is vaccine on the horizon, and these casinos have really been out in front. for instance, wynn resorts is developing its own lab

it the has really been on the forefront of this testing. it is looking forward to making group business viable once again and has been on the forefront rast science to do that. >> wow now that we're talking vegas i'm thinking about that raiders game last night that was entertaining in its own way. contessa brewer outin the strip for us. further west, l.a. county is shutting down outdoor dining as the state deals with a spike in covid cases. aditi roy is here with how they are preparing for officials. sound like they are not so happy about it. >> definitely not, a tough go with them and california having a rough time with covid and now l.a. has announced these drastic measures those numbers statewide are skyrocketing at record highs friday alone the number of new cases was an up precedented is a,500. l.a. county is one of the top

counties contributing to that spike. its five-day average is more than 4,000 new cases as a result l.a. county will be shutting down outdoor dining at bars and retransstarting on wednesday. the closure will be in effect until at least three weeks if those numbers don't subside the county will impose even a stricter order, a march-style shutdown an restaurant can still be available for takeout and delivery but many owners who have already been struggling say a move like this could be the end of their business and governor's late-night curfew went into effect on saturday and that was met with many protests as well. back to you, kelly. >> aditi, one of the talking points as everyone is trying to sort out the pandemic response is to compare california to florida. in florida there's very few restrictions and in california there's a lot and why is it that california has struggled so much with these outbreaks >> reporter: it's really interesting. what officials will say it's just a matter of just behavior

of social gatherings california, you know, was restricted for a while and then they started to open things up and in many places you're just seeing not just family gathering, indoor homes and enough and once you gather indoor, once food is involved the masks come off and that's how things spread. >> they are clearly wanting to take every possible precaution aditi roy in california today coming up, is trish secretariry mutualin pulls the plug on some investments being tapped by the muni mart.ke he'll join us. don't go anywhere. we're back in a couple

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the fed's lending facilities the municipal market has drifted hour it will allow congress to reappropriate $4r 50 billion in cares act funding which some say was sparsely accessed in the first place. my next guest says the program should be extended to next year because the worst is still to come with me now is head of muni strategy and credit at hilltop securities tom, it's all interconnected, right, and it's interesting that you could say secretary mnuchin's decision, while obviously not predicated on the fact that there will be a biden administration if there is a stimulus package it includes more state and local aid, it seems to justify his kind of move, right? >> yeah. i think that there's a -- if there is a situation where there's a significant amount of in the only covid relief generally for the economy but specific targeted, you know, and/or a significant amount that can go to state and local governments, i think that that would be one thing, but we've seen going back to august that, you know, things are really, really moving slowly if at all

on the covid relief side, and, you know, it -- it seems that aid for state and local governments has been one of the topics and one of the themes that's really slowed things up >> right, for sure, and the reason why it's divisive is because, you know, people don't want it to turn into a bailout when that money could be better spent on really suffering industries and frankly the municipal market as you and your colleagues keep telling us, we've been doing a lot of coverage on it, the muney market has held up pretty well. who is even use the fed facility i thought it was basically just new jersey or something, right >> the fact that the municipal facility has only been tapped by two insurers really shouldn't be -- you shouldn't look at municipal credit and think that just because it was tapped by two issuers that the worst isn't yet to could i think that the worst is yet to come with regard to downgrades outpacing upgrades i think that will end up happening for years and the municipal liquidity facility was put together so it was really

only supposed to be used as the last resort, a last resort in a situation like we saw something back in march and april where issuers were not able to tap the market because back then the municipal bond market essentially froze and the fed put that program together as a last resort to make it so that issuers could access liquidity but also so that the market knew that issuers had an opportunity to access liquidity if the market did freeze again. >> right, and i think the problem is we know that the fed can do that again. you know, if we spin forward six months depending on what happens with the next relief package, if we start getting headlines about layoffs and defaults and major cities needing to file for prints and that sort of thing, don't we all expect that the fed or somebody will step up and say we're here to backstop the market and make sure it doesn't create a broader credit krurn, and congress can act, too. it sort of feels like why act now with the money that the

restaurants, the hotels, all these different industries, had a segment earlier about whether a second stimulus check is coming, why keep those funds appropriated for the muni market >> first of all, the layoffs were already happening over the last two months we saw 300,000 layoffs in the state and local government sector. i expect that without target, you know, significant aid for state and local governments that that's going to continue it, and i expect that when we -- when we see revenue -- levels of revenue at state and local government continue to drop because i understand, you know, there's always kinds of -- there's all kinds of enthusiasm about the fact that vaccines are going to be ready in a matter of months, but, you know, the -- the point at which those vaccines are ready to be distributed, number one, and number two, the fact that, you know, state and local government revenues and revenues for airports and transportation insurance, those aren't going to come back immediately.

those revenue streams will take months if not in some cases years to come back >> yeah. so how many major cities or major public works, do you think, are in endanger of not being able to pay their bills in the next year or so? >> so, you know, getting back yo >> getting back to liquidity is one topic. it's a sweituation where the fed put that program together where they would have an opportunity to access liquidity without the market that hasn't happened we haven't been concerned about that going back to april because we're actually -- we're likely to have a record year of bond issues this year we're probably going to have 450 billion if not more in bond issuance this year the situation isn't just in a couple of weeks or a couple months we're still at the beginning of this third wave and i thisnk

there's still a lot of uncertainty that investors and analysts need to think about i think it's fine to have a base case and a situation where there's a case where, again, revenues don't come back quite as quickly as what folks were hoping to come back at >> yeah. you certainly look at the budgets of some of these -- again, i use cities as big examples, coastal cities, and it looks really, really dire. i don't know what the answer is. tom, i appreciate you coming to shed light on it >> sure. >> still ahead, two are two players buying up the bulk of the bitcoin market and how it will make investing in bitcoin a whole lot easier right after the short break.

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welcome back people using square and paypal are buying up the bulk of the new bitcoin supply coming on line after a number of investors have turned bullish on the crypto currency.

>> its staying power gets better every day. i think the risks of bitcoin going to zero are much, much lower than they've ever been before >> i have warmed up to the fact that bitcoin could be an asset class that has a lot of attraction to it as a value to both millennials and the u.s. coast money. >> it's ard to say is it worth of money today do i think it will take the place of gold to a large extent? yeah, i do >> it's not just the money manager buying bitcoin kate rooney is here with more for us >> hey, kelly. square and paypal users are driving some of that recent demand for bitcoin according to some estimates, those companies are now soaking up all of the new bitcoin coming

on to the mark each day. paypal partnered with paxos. volume skyrocketed according to crypto hedge fund pantera capital, within weeks paypal users are buying up 70% of new bitcoin coming on to the market they estimate square had already been buying up more than 40% of new bitcoin. jack dorsey's company launched bitcoin trading a couple years ago and this year said it was adding 50 million worth of bitcoin to square's balance sheet. the demand may be one of the factors adding to the rally by offering trading these main street apps are able to take some of the friction out of buying. >> but a couple of years ago we

still had all retail buying. >> right, right. so it's now new retail buyers that are already on paypal and square, for example. you also have institutional buyers so it seems like the cohort of buyers is changing slightly, you have jones and other more established investors giving some of those people a little built more cover to invest i wonder how they're buying we'll have to ask them, are they also using paypal and square i suspect they must have more of a high-powered way kate, thank you very much for chaki tracking all of that for us, our kate rooney. that does it for us. but the retail federation section is jumping are investors getting too ahead of themselves? don't go anywhere. i'll join tyler mathisen after this quick break plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly

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before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new? -audrey's expecting... -twins! ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. good afternoon, everyone along with kelly evans, i'm tyler malts tyler mathisen this is "power lunch." another vaccine candidate show