doc, what have you got for me? >> freeport, fcx, scott. upside calls at the 24 strike bought i bought them during the show. >> okay. same holiday to you, god one josh brown, what have you got? name a name. >> staying long uber up 44% in the last six months and counting i think it goes higher. >> covering my bases i don't know who i'm going to see tomorrow thanks, everybody. "the exchange" is now. >> thank you thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. a huge milestone in the stock market today as the dow trades above 30,000 for the first time. everything is working today, all 11 sectors are higher. in fact the underperformers, energy and financials are leading today's gains, and all of this is happening against a backdrop of slowing consumer confidence and rising covid-19 cases across the country let get straight to dom chu. he's got a broader look at today's milestone for us

dom? >> it's the k-shaped recovery continuing to widen out with stocks outperforming in a very big way versus the rest of the main street economy in america but take a look at this. as you point out above that 30,000-mark, and imwant to say the day's highs so far, we're talking about 30,117, that's the intraday high so far, so we're pretty close to that at this stage. the s&p 500 up 1.5% and hats been a recent trend. the nasdaq underperforming only a little north of up 1% right now. speaking of. let's put all of these in context, these three major indices in the united states on a year-to-date basis you can see here the nasdaq, still, very much the outperformer, up 34%. the s&p up 12.5% and the dow industrials up 5%. that speaks to the reason why you can see here on this side of the screen the white line much more of a move to the upside here the dow is playing catchup with both nasdaq and the s&p 500, and the three stocks on a percentage

basis that have done the best on a year-to-date basis in the dow jones industrial average are all technology it's salesforce.com up 59% apple up 56% and microsoft up 35 is president i'm going to put a little asterix up here by salesforce because that's a recent addition to the dow only there since last summer still, you can tell technology is still the predominant theme in terms of the outperformance within the dow so far. we'll see if that trend continues. kelly, back over to you. >> all right dom, stay right there. let's also bring mike santoli into this chat i want to emphasize the importance of the retail trader here and getting us to dow 30k the everyday americans and robinhood crowd that started buying stocks in earnest at the low. this is the year of the main street investor, mike, a force that's so big they are offsetting the loss of corporate stock buybacks, and everyone should keep that in mind when they are tempted to say wall street at new highs. there's been a ton of main street participation here, right?

>> well, there has been. i think it's segmented there's no doubt that there's a new aggressive emotional energy, and generally an optimistic one coming from those younger retail traders. you can see it in record high volumes. people are calling it in call options and seeing it in parts of technology and seeing it, you know, in electric vehicle stocks that go craze they month, so, yes, it's absolutely in there, and it's been largely missing from this bull market if you want to trace this back to 2009, but their parents and older siblings and grand parents have been buying into it until recently you saw mutual fund flows going out, not in as the market went up until about two or three weeks ago so i do think there's a bit of an offset here but no doubt about it that there is more of a retail flavor and it creates a different rhythm to this market. >> and, dom, we've been looking at what the markets have done this year. extraordinary since the lows we were at 18,000 back in march. we know when we fall 40% you've

got to rise 50% just to get back to the highs the fact that we've done that and then some just amazing this month has been a monster. the russell small caps are up 18%, dom, since november 1st the rest of the markets, the dow is up about 12%. it's definitely having its best month right now since 1987 it could, if we get another 100 points or so have its best month since 1976 which is pretty extraordinary. you look at the past, you know, what got us here we've had the election results this kind of purple washington, if you want to call it that. the vaccines news three consecutive weeks in a row now and last night the janet yellen news, and don't you think that's a factor here as well? >> certainly a factor, but i would say that those factors have been in play in just the last few weeks it speaks nothing to the notion of what's powered the vast majority of these gains since the pandemic lows in march, and what has that been that's been a massive multi-trillion dollar effort from both the federal reserve bank herein the united states

as well as a multi-trillion dollar effort in terms of fiscal relief, taxpayer money being deployed to help underprivileged americans during that entire time those two factors have driven a lot of the optimism that we've seen in the market over the course of the past several months what i would say is people who ask all the time, well, how can the market be so good if the economy is still struggling? well, it's because it's simply put a discounting mechanism. there is so much more optimism right now about what 2021 and possibly what 2022 look like in the aftermath of covid-19 when vaccines are in full play, when the economy can no longer worry about a pandemic that's the reason why it's so key right now. >> mike, i mean, people who broke out those flapper costumes for halloween, you know, were -- that's -- that's the mentality we hear about the roaring 20s all the time give us something quickly to watch before we go in the market today, whether, you know, it's a

level or kind of more of a sentiment gauge. what will you be watching? >> we'll be watching whether sentiment it becoming too aggressive, and i would look at the s&p 500. as much as it looks like we've gone relentlessly higher it's been at a three-month trading range and we're trading right at high that we saw a couple weeks ago november 9th when we got the pfizer news, and it's been going kind of sideways even as components of the market go nuts to the upside and some of the big stocks cool off. so the question, is you know, it's not surprising we're a percent and a half higher than we were on september 2nd which is where we are on the s&p given all the bet per than expected news, but question is whether we have a short-term ceiling being formed right around that area. >> fair enough, and i think dom's earlier point was right on as well which is, you know, in some ways this is the dow catching up to the nasdaq and to the broader market guys, thank you both mike santoli, dominic chu and with the dow hitting 30,000 you

might be wondering if it's time to take risk off the table my next guest says okay sure but if you're looking for safety you might find it in the grove stocks i'm joined by rebecca patterson director-of-investment at bridgewater associates rebecca, great to see you. we can start there or your gut check on 30,000 following the chat we just had what are you thinking in. >> with 30,000 i feel like i should have worn green rather than red, but i think we set this up so technology is a safety stock i think we probably need to explain what the heck we're talking about, and i think the big picture thing here, what's really important is to understand what this policy mix that dominic chu just talked about, incredible fiscal policy, real coordinated with monetary policy, what that means, because this is something new, and as we see this rotation trade continue it affects how that rotation trade will work versus the past so it's important for investors to understand. we grew up with a fed raising cutting interest rates that were

great until 2008 and when that was no longer effective they moved to asset purchases and that worked until the pandemic, and when the pandemic came, monetary policy alone wasn't sufficient to really lift us out of that so we had to have this more coordinated fiscal monetary misk where the fed is buying assets and keeping yields down and facilitating the bigger budget deficits. how that plays into tech, i think with yields low and likely to stay low for a long time as the fed plays its role people need to play out the risk stocks you don't want all the stocks you own to have the high cyclical correlation you want some stocks to have more land-like attributes, and that's what helped a lot of technology and a lot of the growth names earlier this year high free cash flow, strong balance sheets they are going to survive no matter what the economy throws at them as well as some structural supports, but i think when we're talking about tech here, it's interesting to me today that the nasdaq is up over

1% it's underperforming but the exodus out of it is not necessarily the same in the rotation i think that ties back squarely to the new monetary policy mix >> no, and what you're saying echoes what was said last hour called t-fed and that's reinforced by yellen being treasury secretary in a biden administration, this -- just how closely these two organizations are working together, but let me ask you something about this and make sure that people kind of grab on to what you're saying. you're saying a lot of these mega cap tech names, and, again, there's a reason we now call some of them in consumer staples, but that these are kind of the new bonds you know, this is the new safety trade, and my question on this is what about everybody who says wait a minute, i'm looking at bond valuations and i don't like them but i'm looking at the valuations of some of those names and i don't like them either how much of a risk is that >> right i take your point, and -- and

certainly there are some signs of froth in some corners of the market, so i don't want to dismiss that at all, but if people are taking a longer term view, what am i going to put in my portfolio for the next few years if bond markets are going to stay low. feds won't raise rates at least until 2023 and that keeps a lid on the curve to a whole degree so what do i own when it's stable cash flows or types of companies where the revenues are going to be fairly stable no matter what the economic environment, companies that have certain attributes again, those things are going to be in favor when growth slows down or disappoints, so i -- i am cognizant of the valuations, absolutely, but you also have to think about what kind -- what basket of stocks do i want to have if part of what that is doing is replacing my bond portfolio. stocks certainly aren't the only thing to look at there's going to be lots of other diversifying assets to include in that mix whether it's cold or whether it's

inflation-linked bonds or different types of summit investors for private markets, so when i talk about tech stocks i'm not saying that's the only thing that you should look at, certainly not, but it does play a role within the equity market that i think could be different from past rotations. >> yeah, it certainly describes the nature in which they have behaved this year. they have been a flight to safety trade, no question, and certainly will give you better growth exposure than bonds rebecca, thanks so much for joining us today good to sigh. >> great to see you. >> rebecca patterson. >> as we continue to look through your portfolio, take a look at some of the names that have propelled the dow, tech names like salesforce, apple, microsoft. nike is in there, too. should you stick with these safe plays, or are there better bets for your money our next guest has more suggestions. steve grasso joins us now. would you agree with what rebecca said, or is this a way for people, like she said,

that's the play you're looking for kind of safety what's the play if you want maybe a little more upside where would you go >> so, first of all, big fan of rebecca's. she's been right for a very long time i think, kelly, what people have made the mistake of is thinking large-cap tech is safety, so if you look through the prism of off-the-march low, iwms are up 93%, small cap, russell, up 93% off that low currently right now. if you look at qqqs. technology, up 78% off the march low so if you change that dynamic and say, well, everything ran, okay let's look from october 1st. apple is actually down from october 1st this year, and if you look at tse, that's up 62%, and if you look at ge, deep value. that's up 80% from october 1st if you look at microsoft, that's

flat from october 1st, so i would say those six names that you talk about all the time on your show. that's the old guard people are going to change habits, and it will take them a long time to change habits on those names, right, so look at the value plays, ge, tse, wrk, restrock, names that you don't talk about, olin, oln. these are names that are going to be the new guard. these are the value names, the deep value names, but old habits die very hard, but we're just a blip here. when rebecca talked about low rates, the ten-year is up on a percentage basis, over 70% since august that requires you to make changes in your portfolio. that requires you to buy value. >> fair enough, steve. >> you want to buy value in a rising rate. >> let me ask you -- i take your point, and i think a lot of people, you know, are making

that argument and are certainly sympathetic to it certainly, but let me ask you about the rest of the portfolio names that i have here quickly you have capri holdings, sonos and virgin galactic which is not exactly a deep value stock. >> no. so you have to round out your portfolio. rebecca talked about it, too, diversification. so my main picks are ge, can a by holdings, trenceo, olin and then i have to round it out. sonos is a hid envalue/growth play that one i expect to be much higher in short order, and virgin galactic, that's my moon shot, kelly. i think the world. that's going to be the next frontier, not the final. >> all right you can't say moon shot when you're talking about space steve, thank you so much we really appreciate it with some under-the-radar picks today. >> happy thanksgiving, kelly. >> coming up -- you, too happy thanksgiving to the cat. we're going to take a quick break. the market may be optimistic

today, but consumers are losing some faith we'll talk about their outlook for business and the labor market we'll look at what the that does mean for growth and stocks plus, the man that got everyone economy. jpmorgan economist mike frioli talking about negative gdp in the first quarter. take a look at the financials. after being left behind they are the second best performer up 19%. some of the biggest gains have come in just the last week lincoln financial at 14% and actually 17% wells fargo up 14% and citigroup up nearly 11%. we're back in a couple turn on my tv and boom, it's got all my favorite shows right there. i wish my trading platform worked like that. well have you tried thinkorswim? this is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. okay, it's got screeners and watchlists.

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the markets are rallying with the dow crossing above 30,000 for the first time ever today. it's up 500 points right now this is in the throes of a pandemic and one that's expected to shrink gdp. it's warned that gdp could rise to 1%. joining me now is the chief economist at jpmorgan. mike, great to see you again is this a worst case scenario or base case at this point? >> i think it's a base gays, downside and upside risk to this

so far we're seeing some signs of activity falter, things that we track, things like our own card spending data, a variety of other daily measures, showing a little bit of softening here in early to mid-november and we do think there's a risk that thanksgiving could essentially be a superspreader event so that as we get into mid-december we could see case counts increase further which will weigh on activity in the holiday season, and i think while there surely will be a lot of online spending to take the place of brick and mortar spending, that won't help service providers, things like restaurants and so forth, so we do think some of the consumer service categories could falter here as we turn the year of course, not like what we saw -- nothing like what we saw in the spring, are okay. i think we have learned many ways the economy can operate alongside the virus much better than we did in the spring. nonetheless, you know, to get -- to get the modest contraction it only takes, you know, a pretty

small deviation year in activity particularly as we head into the holiday season >> so, mike, how unusual is this to go from -- again, everything is different with the pandemic, but it's just interesting to me that when we start to get these negative growth forecasts, the markets are totally shrugging it off. does it make sense that investors are saying we're looking past the vaccine, we're hearing the term boom now, mark dada saying next year could be an economic boom is the first quarter one step back with potentially a big leap forward to come? >> essentially, yes. i don't disagree with that view are and we recently revised up our views on second and third-quarter growth in part because we have increased confidence that the vaccine will be broadly available by the end of the third quarter we are also feeling moderately more confident that we will get some further fiscal stimulus next year so, you know, to be sure, maybe i should have

clarified that in response to your first question. this is a temporary faltering around the turn of the year and as we get to spring things are looking up quite a bit, mostly because of the vaccine and the good news we've had there, but also because of some increased hopes on fiscal stimulus, so to the extent markets are forward looking i think it is appropriate to a certain degree, of course, to shrug off the near-term news and focus on the longer term outlook and that's improving. i have no -- i agree with that entirely. >> yeah. it's good to hear. it helps us tie this back to the market mike, final question how big a relief package do you think the market can support before the bond market starts to push back. >> so we're looking for about $1trillion in fiscal stimulus coming late in the first quarter, and what we've seen so far is that the bond market has been able to handle packages of this size in a depressed economy

quite easily this year now, i should mention that i do think the fed will be helping and so far as we believe that in the december meeting the fed will be extending the average maturity of their purchases which will -- which should temper any rise in interest rate due to further fiscal stimulus we do think it's important here that both aspects of policy, fiscal and monetary, are operating and pulling in the same direction which we do think portends better growth as we get further out into 2021. >> t-fed, my term of the day thanks for joining us to go into more detail. mike feroli of jpmorgan of what we could have in store here next year on the growth front. meanwhile as i mentioned dow is up 30,000 happening against the backdrop of rising covid case and with some of america's unemployed facing a new problem which is consistently have been overpaid in their jobless benefits and north carolina on the hook to pay the money back

>> reporter: when state up employment offices were overwhelmed with claims at the height of the pandemic many tried to get money out the door quickly and now that things have relatively slowed down labor offices are checking claims more closely, and they are finding incidents of overpayment texas alone reports $2260,000 cases to the tune of $214 million. you no, kelly, the issue could be due to a mistake by the applicant, an error on the part of the state or fraud, although texas, for example, says fraud represents less than 1% of all claims well, for ahmad who is a gig worker delivering packages in washington it was his minister take he said he could work from home one week and he could not and the state cancelled all of the benefits he collected. he received a message close to midnight in august saying he owed almost $15,000. >> i was out of words honestly i was out of words

it was very stressful. >> kelly, after months of trying to get issue resolved his overpayment was forgiven but not before a story about his issue was published. kelly. >> so $15,000. what are people supposed to do if they get a bill like that call their local media outlet? what are they supposed to do we asked an expert and said if you get a bill like that, just appeal it and that's because a lot of time the issue is a misunderstanding, and so so further research and fact-finding, perhaps more documentation could resolve the issue. appeal it first and some say it's also telling that is this time around they are not placing lien, issuing liens for these am captains and are also not enforcing deadlines if in fact it's a valid overpayment say you owe $15,000 to it the

state of washington, in step years you'll owe $15,000, no interest accrued so states that we've list spoken to are trying to be accommodating as well. >> and i'm sure making sure they are not getting taken advantage of. >> exactly. >> thanks for bringing that story to us. coming up, today's retail earnings are proving one thing shopping in stores isn't dead. we've got the numbers and that story. and as vaccine optimism takes hold in the market jim cramer reveals his list of return-to-normalcy stocks. and the tesla takeover the stock dominates wall street. elon musk is now the second wealthiest man alive tesla is up 556% this year and its market cap is over $500 billion. we'll have more on that. we're back in two. plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may

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unmatched value. at fidelity, you can have both. welcome back to "the exchange." let's get a check on markets as the dow crosses above 30,000 today for the first time we're well above that level right now. off the highs at 525 dow up 435 and that's 1.5% gain, pretty similar for the s&p in terms of magnitude at 3630 and the nasdaq is lagging with a 1% increase over 12,000 notably so a milestone there, too all 11 sectors are in the green with energy, financials, materials and industrials leading the way higher that's quite at grouping that's a reopening trade, and all of these four sectors are up

more than 10% this month small caps, the russell 2000 up 18% already this month is hitting had an intraday high and on pace for a record close this 18% gain would easily be its best month ever and the reopening trade is seeing gains not in terms of sectors but some of the individual movers as well mgm, carnival and cheesecake factory up 7% to 10% and the stay-at-home names are taking the day off, pinterest, peloton, slack and zoom are some of the big decliners. peloton down 5 is about. let's get to sue herera for a cnbc news update. >> hello, kelly. good to see you. hello, everyone. within the last half hour president-elect biden formally introduced the people he wants on his foreign policy team including his secretary of state nominee anthony blinken and former secretary of state john ker as his special climate envoy. biden says he wants america to reassume its role as a global

leader. >> it's a team that will keep our country and our people safe and secure it's a team that reflects the fact that america is back ready to lead the world, not retreat from it, one again sit at head of the table >> nevada joins pennsylvania today officially certifying wins for joe biden although legal challenges by the trump campaign remain nevada's non-partisan supreme court unanimously approved the state's final canvas which has biden winning by more than two percent and points. and beyonce's black pride anthem is helping her dominate the just announced grammy nominations. "black parade" released on june tiant is up for song and record of the year. two of beyonce's nine nominations. congratulations to her and all of the nominees. kell, you're up to date. i'll sigh next hour. back to you. >> all right sue, thank you very much sue herera. big box stores are big in the pandemic elon musk gets even rich and

bitcoin nears its own all-time high all that and more is coming up on today's edition of "rapid fire." it's back right after this stay with us ♪ we'd be closer to the twins. change in plans. at fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan.

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let's catch you up on a couple of stories that need to be on your radar it's time for "rapid fire. here to break down the headlines, dom chu, bertha coombs and robert frank all join me welcome, guys. first up, got to talk about some of the retail movers brick and mortar ain't over. best buy and dick's sporting goods both reporting big third-quarter earnings beat and demand for electronics and athleticwear continues to climb. best buy's comps up 23% year over year and dick's up if%, both a company record. both retailers didn't give forward guidance and they are getting hammered best buy down 6% and dick's 3% we know digital helps those overall comps, but they specifically gave the in-store figures, and they were very strong >> well, you know, for dick's 90% of sales were driven by store including pickup in store and curbside, and that combination, they think it's going to be here to stay for a

lot of people. it's a matter of convenience and when it comes to best buy, people may have pulled forward in terms of buying computers and phones and things like that. they may have already bought a television and may still be thinking about it. the body language is not as good on the call if you will from best buy, but they were fairly optimistic on dick's sporting goods. they sawed although the warm weather has made sales of cold weather gear a little slower if it continues to be warm, that will be made up by golf, so people might still be golfing in december if it's still warm, and if we get cold, then they will buy the cold weather gear and they still think golf either way will help them out a lot they think that that will be a big gift this year >> before i tee that one up for dom. bertha, i actually want to follow up with you first again, with the best buy shares down 6%. you mentioned their tone was a little different on the call what did they say on call

because if they are more cautious going forward that would echo the consumer confidence numbers, the gdp forecast from jpmorgan the first quarter. what did they see that spooked everybody? >> they were just not as confident about the first quarter. they didn't think they would -- they sawed they aid they are noy seeing that for holiday quarter. again, dick's was much more upbeat they said we're seeing strength coming into the quarter and even going into 2021 when, you know, lauren hobart will be taking over at ceo. she's the president and talked about how the omni channel is really, working and help to bring down their costs whereas best buy saturday of said they were eating into margins. >> interesting. >> a little less kind of hopeful. >> dom, just cut a quick pin in

it because this in some way, are they suffering a covid hangover, supplies >> i would say they capitalized on a number of fronts, outdoor sports, patio furniture, all sorts of thing so if you watch them they could be a bellwether during the consumer spending during the holiday season. both underpressure in the market elon musk is now the second richest man in the world and ehe will leap frop bill gates yesterday after until earned $700 million he had a 4% gape since it officially announced it nine -- the biggest incleese of in -- it

was such a gamble to get paid off. >> he's added 3 billion today for 17 years i've never seen anything like the ways like we've seen with him works out to something like 17 million an hour for all of 2020 remember, it took jeff bezos 20 years to become worth 100 billion and mosques has been incredible sets up a new race the race was between bill gates and warren buffett and now it could being between jeff -- be

jeff bezos bezos adding $67 billion to his wealth, combined $167 billion between the two of emthis had. we eve never seen anything like the scale or the speed of this kind of wealth creation. >> yeah, dom, i know and keep saying it over and over again. i wonder what happensin the other side of this because after you have this kind of wealth, it's not the personal now. it's over 500 billion. >> there's a long way it has to go down before it tightens up toyota and general and tesla

to robert frank's point. tesla versus amazon. one is much bigger than the other. two richest men in the world have space projects. stock gains like this can help us fund some of the space initiatives so something i'd be watching for the next months and years possibly at this stage. >> that's true shifting the whole burden of space on to these companies. >> also philanthropy in a very, very big way, absolutely. >> elon musk did sign giving pledge back in 2012. if he continues at this rate he's going to have a whole lot more to give away if he gives away half his fortune. that's true. i'd wait a year, make sure, you know, that you've got what you've got he's doing just fine let's talk about bitcoin whose prize kind of mirroring the stock market as the dow crosses 30,000 bitcoin has crossed 19,000, and it's now closing in on its all-time highs set back three

years ago and then it burst and had quite a second act which experts credit to fiscal monetary stimulus plus backing from square peg and paperia. i can't believe another thanksgiving we're talking about bitcoin. total deja vu here. >> three years removed and the crazy thing from this time around they don't seem nearly as euphoric, do they, as they were back in 2017 as they were talking about the crazy ride that we've seen. we've back up to the same levels but there's not that same kind of frothiness from a sensibility standpoint that you're seeing here that's not to say it doesn't exist by a lot of institutional or traffickers of these kind of cryptocurrencies i talk to say this time around there could be more of a comfort level developing for not just retail traders and investors but also some institutions as well and that might be fuel for further upside this time i mean, again, this is the top area of the range the last time around, historic highs i'm not sure if it gets above

here but there's a thesisous here that, yes, maybe people are becoming more comfortable that you could have a crypt currency trading around a token that's going to be a big deal. >> i think it's true last time around that it was a huge story and everyone was talking and this time it's more like okay, yeah, it's back up there and maybe it's for real this time. speak being of thanksgiving, gathering for thanksgiving is still worth the risk a new poll from the university of michigan's children's hospital find a third of parents plead the benefits of getting together for turkey day are worth of the risk getting or spreading are covid-19 earlier we spoke about thanksgiving possibly become another superspreader event. robert are, i don't blame people -- we've all god covid fatigue. grandparents who want to see grandkids and my sister-in-law just got a covid test to make sure he's all right to come. we're keeping it small, but it's -- it's such a tricky one to try to figure out what the right thing is to do

>> well, i'm getting a little nervous, kelly, just walking around manhattan over the weekend and even today the number of people waiting on line to get test it had, the number of people walk around with luggage getting in cars to the airport, i mean, it feels like a regular pre-thanksgiving tuesday in any other year. those people are all going to go places and gather and come back to new york city which has kept it fairly under control so i'm really nervous, and i do agree with feroli that we could see a big uptick and a superspreader event as a result of this. i think you're right people are tired of it and they want to take their chances >> bertha, what are you hearing? >> you have to think about the situation with the vaccine, you know i've sort of started to think about it sort of like planting tile yiuln you have to think of the vaccine that way we need to be panchtient.

think of people during world war ii, four years of that, so it's been tough but you've got to hold on. spring is coming and we do have hope on the horizon. >> all right we will leave it with the tulips on that note thank you all today for joining me dominic chu and bertha coombs and robert frank for "rapid fire." coming up, the dow crossing 30,000 for the first time. the index hitting a record intraday high. quite a session we have today, and check out some of the retailers. talk about some of the decliners a moment ago but nordstrom, williams sonoma, is dollar tree all surging this week. look at the gains, 16% to 20% and williams sonoma and dollar tree both reporting earnings beats. nordstrom's has had a monster month. one to watch despite all of this, consumer confidence is flagging just a matter of time before i spills over into the market?

we'll talk about all of that next on "the exchange. ncing) at least geico makes it easy to bundle our renters and car insurance. yeah, helping us save us even more... for bundling made easy, go to geico.com

welcome back well, the dow is reaching above 30,000 today consumer confidence is back to its lost levels since august the consumer can have against index for november clocked in below economist expectations and the conference board is warning that consumers are less optimistic about the short-term outlook now. is there something that stocks are missing? let's bring in the ceo and president of the conference board and a cnbc contributor steve, it's a pretty remarkable -- i mean, usually stocks and this index move hand in hand, but they have become detached the last month or so. >> well, they have, kelly, and, you know, september and october were pretty flat, and they were at pretty high levels north of 100 in our index this is a big drop here in the last measure which ended on -- the fielding ended on november 13th so it's just past the election on this it's mostly about their expectations for the next six months and consumers are

concerned over the next six months and they are saying that they don't expect things to get any better over the next six months now, consumers' individual reactions are driven by their own job situation, and so what i think they are really saying here is we're worried about our jobs in the next six months. we're worried about layoffs and we don't see anything here on the horizon. you may recall that our ceo confidence had been quite high in the past month so this is a gap between ceo confidence and consumer confidence, a gap between the market which as you know is at all-time record highs and consumer expectations a, so the question here is what are consumers going to do coming into the holidays? is this going to depress their spend pentagon, or is this just, you know, an anomaly >> you know, what happened with expectations, you know, the six-month expectations because we had a nice conversation with mike feroli expecting a small

gdp number but the suggestion that we might be in an economic boom by the end of the year. do you think consumers have the concept it might be getting worse now but looking out past this it could be a lot better? >> that could be, and, you know, you have to worry that consumers are worried about their jobs whereas businesses have the ability to cut jobs and that actually helps their bottom line so part at market difference may be that it, and, you know, it's also not fact oregon in all the good news on the vaccinations so that's not in the consumer numbers yet, by think that, you know, there's not a -- there's not a big worry here from an election stand point you don't see that you see a lot of worry about covid, and so this vaccination thing could mean that there's a material impact next month by the way, there's a big geographic difference. florida increased 25 points, and they are -- florida is now the most confident state in the union, and you see the most

pessimistic states being the northeast, new york, pennsylvania, so really big differences there. a couple of other things interest rates are helping auto and home sales you see continued booms there, and, you know, looking into the -- into the season here, the retail season. you ought to to see everything s driven in home to continue to grow so hobbies, home, good, toys, gaming, all of those kinds of things and all online. everything is done by phone and computer people are being very cautious about going into the physical stores >> i think we just have to wait till next month and see once the vaccine news is in there, does the survey snap back and if not, perhaps the market will have caught up. >> still ahead, as covid-19 cases rise across the country, more people are getting tested, particularly before traveling

for thanksgiving despite the cdc's warning, we'll take a look at how long it could get those test results backs and stocks soaring with the dow breaching that 30,000 level but there are names lower than they were at 20,000, goldman, imb, wallcrns see, all lower today than they were in 2017 we're back in a couple when i was in high school, this was the theater i came to quite often. the support we've had over the last few months has been amazing. it's not just a work environment. everyone here is family. if you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. we thought for sure that we were done. and this town said: not today. ♪

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welcome back to "the exchange." nearly 2 million americans are now getting tested as we head into the holidays. the wait for results is getting a little shorter meg? >> as so many americans are getting diagnosed with covid-19, we wanted to find out how long they have to wait for their test results, particularly as we're hearing about the terrible lines they have to wait in just to get tested we surveyed more than 9,000 americans on testing experiences and we found in november it was a little better than it was over the summer but it's still not great. more people are getting their results the same day or the next

day or within two or three days. and that's really the cutoff that's useful and realistic for people to quarantine but 27% of the people said it took four days or more that's not great but it is down from 40 days since the summer. we're up to almost 2 million tests per day. that's double from what we were seeing in the summertime we are starting to see signs of strain today quest diagnostic's turn around time has stretched to two to three days on average in the summer they were receiving seven-day average turn around times but it's a warning it's starting to get worse brown's doctor ashish jha is

saying two days is the optimal time to get test results back. we found only wisconsin and rhode island were hitting that metric if you look at states like florida and vermont, they were four days for test results on average. we also asked folks about any plans for the thanksgiving holiday, if they plan to have people from outside of the home over to celebrate, what precautions are they taking? very few said they were asking guests to get a covid test 62% said they weren't asking people to take any precautions >> do you have a warp speed update for us on the briefing we just had >> yeah. we worked a little more about how the vaccine allocation is going to go and if the green light is given to pfizer's vaccine, states will start getting their shipments very soon 6 million doses they say will go

out in the first week and have weekly allotments after that the other headline from that briefing, secretary alex azar said working with the biden transition team has begun for operation warped speed as well >> we see in the local headlipas maybe more health care workers will get it before the end of the year >> coming up, rick caruso, owner of shopping centers throughout california will join us to discuss the shutdowns there, including on outdoor dining in a.nd the economic fallout. i'll join tyler mathisen after this quick break it's been a tough year. and now with q4 wrapping up, the north pole has to be feeling the heat.

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good afternoon welcome to "power lunch. along with kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen november is shaping up as the best month for the dow in 33 years. that's without much help from big tech it is vastly underperforming get this, energy, which has gone from worst to first. we'll talk more about that