>> qui anyx is doing an incredible job with the surge and also reducing its carbon footprint. >> good stuff. just a name, were inand just a name, pete, please. >> bitcoin. >> okay. 20 grand almost. >> pete? >> vale. i'm going to give you vale >> thanks, guys. thanks for watching. "the exchange" is now. >> thank you, scott, and hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. this is "the exchange" and stocks are moving today. dow down 308 today but we're still on pace to close out a month of monster gains and record highs bullion versus bitcoin bitcoin nearing all-time highs, a look at these two and holiday shopping in full swing who could take the retail crown as shoppers move out of the store and online, but let's begin with the markets this hour and bob pisani is here with the numbers for us

hi, bob. >> hello, kelly, good to see you at always. we're off of the lows but not by much 3-1 declining stocks and not surprised we have a lull bit of pull back. in the a lot of news to stimulate this little pullback that we got but considering the s&p 500 up 10, maybe 11%, this is how it ends up. this is in the top ten months of all time that we've seen quite a move from the s&p and if you look at what's down today, the stuff that has had the biggest month throughout the stock. those value stocks what's value mostly energy and bank stocks. cyclicals have had a big move. industrials are classic cyclicals, they are down as well tech has been up 10% on the month and holding up okay and no big selloff. this is the gold locks scenario. everything is up look at this everybody in the pool. banks up 30% here on energy. industrials strong technology up 10%. even health care which is defensive stock and consumer staples. they are up. this is who the goldie locks scenario looks like. everything is moving really

nicely what's behind this little pullback that we've seen if you look at energy, a lot of uncertainty about what's going on around opec, these stocks have moved 30% in the last several weeks. some of the refiners have been through the roof under the theory we're all start driving dramatically sometime in february, march or april obviously getting a little bit ahead of themselves. what's behind the pullback i think you basically know not a lot of news today but just think what's going on here we've had record highs in the last couple of days. we've had extreme levels of bullishness. everything thinks the market is going to go straight up. never a good sign and the goldilocks scenario, vaccine hopes that it will be smooth still lurks get, that a lot of assumptions in there, and, of course this, glorious spring reopening. let's hope, all of us, that we get that in the second quarter and there's a lot of things that can happen between now and the ghorious reopening in march and april. kelly, back to you. >> guys? >> certainly are bob, we appreciate it. the running through the mark,

updates on the covid vaccine front as well. solid results from moderna in seriously ill patients and the company filing for emergency use. shares are still up more than 15%. novavax is up 13% even though it once again pushed back the start of its own vaccine trial meg tirrell has the latest for us hi, meg. >> reporter: hi, kelly it wouldn't be a monday in november without more vaccine news as you pointed out last week, so moderna getting final efficacy look at its phase three trial for its covid vaccine coming in at 94.1% effective that's after they had 196 total cases in the trial with a split of 185 of those in the placebo group and just 11 on the advantages own they also saw 30 cases of severe disease, and those were all among people who did not get the vaccine suggesting 100% efficacy against severe covid-19. in terms of safety, it appeared well-tolerated no serious safety concerns that they have observed to date moderna is saying it's going to file today for emergency use authorization with the fda

similar filing it's going to file in europe with the european medicine's agency. now we talked with moderna ceo this morning about what he was most excited about in these results and here's what he said. >> the most exciting news to me yesterday when hi learned the data was serious cases because if we can prevent serious cases it means reduced illness and death. the. >> so moderna filing with the fda today saying that they expect a meeting of the fda's outside advisers december 17th, a week after the december 10th date for pfizer's vaccine to get that review from the fda, and here's a look at the other vaccines in development in the united states. we, of course, got those initial astrazeneca phase three results from other countries i have & j's results are expected by the end of the year and novavax updating on its u.s.

trials that should begin within a few weeks. we've been hearing october for the start and then november. we spoke with their ceo this morning saying it's just sort of normal figuring out manufacturing that results in this delay and here's what he told us about the prospects for their vaccine. >> it's good news for everybody that the -- that the protein that's being used as an antigen to stimulate and i mun response is -- is the right protein to use. it's a spike protein our data shows that we had very high levels of protective antibody and t-cells against the spike protein so i think that's -- that predicts a good result for our vaccine trials as well >> now, kelly, here's a look at why more vaccines are potentially needed than just the pfizer and moderna ones even though they have showed such good results if we have it, we can show you

the deals that operation warp speed has struck for the vaccines the blue is what they have order and the yellow is options for more for moderna and pfizer the u.s. vaccine has struck deals, two-shot vaccines, enough for 50 million people and it won't come at once, staggered over a period of months. novavax struck a deal for 100 million doses so in order to be able to cover the entire country they need to exercise the options of more vaccines from moderna or pfizer or some of the other vaccines need to work, kelly, so this is the situation that we're looking at right now. back over to you >> and meg, i'm curious how much stock people are putting on novavax vaccine in the first people with astrazeneca that was a lot of drama over the reliability of its test results are i understand that people don't like sort of the happenstance by which that positive number, that 90% number came about, but how quickly can they move into getting that move solidified so

that people can figure out, okay, well, if the half doze and full-doze combo is a really good result that that can move along quickly as well. >> i think there are so many variables there. it depends on what the data show when they are able to present all of it, you know. they published it in a journal, all of it, so everybody can see it and dig through it, and then the other variable is how regulators look at it and how comfortable they are with whatever level of uncertainty still remains once they see all of the data. the big question is why would a half doze be more effective than a full doze when given before another full doze. the there are a number of high pott seize and the question is will the united states for us here in america, will the fda be comfortable accepting those data from outside the u.s. and with a lot of questions about them, or will they want more data will we need to see the trial that's being run in the u.s. be changed in order to test the vaccine in the new way that proved to be more effective so just a lot of questions about the astrazeneca vaccine right

now which we hope will get answers to over the weeks to coming months. >> yeah, exactly they can do it as quickly as possible, you know, in the best way they can meg, thanks so much rounding it all up for us. our meg tirrell, and this is the first monday in almost a month that we haven't seen positive vaccine news spur a huge real. the dow is down 400 points at the lows and we've locked in pretty rehuge gains for november already. the dow on track for its best month since 1987, the s&p and nasdaq on track for its best month since april and better than 10% gains for both and the rally this month has been broad with every sector up at least 6% joining me is david harden, chief executive officer and nancy is an asset management executive. welcome to both of you andy kesler said beware this market and if you look beneath

the surface there's a lot of companies, especially the big tech companies that he thinks are overvalued would you agree with that, or do you think that this market still has plenty of room to run? >> well, i agree that there is some overbought positions, and there's a lot of companies that have done very well, but take a look at like amazon which is not really in the tech sector but it is a tech company. it's up over 70% it has a pe of 90, but if you look at the news from black friday people are shopping online that's very, very positive for that company, and so there are some companies out there that are overbought i'd be very careful here and in the same respect i think you still want to be in certain companies. >> so david works would the companies that you would want to be in? does that basket include the reopening names where if you want to call them that, you know, do they include different kind of growth stories within tech where would you be >> yeah. so i mentioned one with amazon there. another place that i really think is a great buy, whether the vaccine comes sooner which we all hope it does, great news

today, or later, and that's like walmart. i think walmart had a great online number there at 79% growth and its online sales but if we open back up there's more people at store. target is another one with the reompingt i think their in-store sal sales have been off-the-charts fantastic. if you want to look at still tech, doing well in the cloud, long-term trends, you're looking at microsoft from a very big name or very small name like cloud flare. both of those names doing very, very well. >> okay. nancy, meanwhile, we talked last week about how extreme sentiment has gotten, you know, whether it was the ii survey, the fear and greed index, the cnn fear and greed index. those trends do continue, so we know at some point we're going to see a pullback, a correction. i guess the question is, you know, how deep, howie is veer, and do we emerge with new

leadership >> well, something to expect to see us pull back as you mentioned, ii numbers are very strong. there's been a lot of individual participation in the market which is fantastic, but it has led to some level of speculation. some level of fraught marl in the emerging growth areas like electric vehicles and some of the vaccine stocks so we would expect to see a pullback we think the pullback should be relatively narrow but we think coming out of that pullback we are setting the stage for what could be a fairly major reversal in the market. as you know, we've had about a dozen years of growth leading value. we've had five years, almost six years of mega cap growth leading pretty much everything else, and that's made sense because that's where the growth has been and that's where the valuations were most attractive. what we see now looking forward is actually a switch of those growth, not away from tech and

not away from digital transformation and personalized medicine and all of these exciting areas but a way perhaps from some of the most expensive ways to play that into some of the less expensive ways and so we see a market that can emerge as a market that we have what we like to call goldilocks stocks not too high, not the super highly valued stocks that have been the winners for today and the past five year, not too cold not the deep value but in the middle good growth and good valuation, industrials, hard way, some of the health care areas and consumer areas, et cetera. >> i know you do a lot of work on small caps, and, nancy, before i let you go. i'm curious what you think if i were somebody in an index fund, an etf, mutual fund, you name, it do i need to be concerned about tesla coming into the s&p 500 next month we'll talk more about this later on the show, the huge name

would you have any advice for kind of the typical investor out there. do they ignore it? is it something to kind of -- what do you think about how big it's gotten in its inclusion in the s&p? >> right, and so certainly there is going to be some impact of tesla coming in. it's the map going to come in relatively large and will displace some of the smaller names in the bench mark and there could be short-term volatility about it what we would suggest for individual investors is that are the scarcity in the market today is actually looking at long-term investments and investing for the long term. we think you could, if you will, fade it a little by taking advantage of the update and trimming a little and taking advantage of the big down days and adding but overall go back to asset allocation, go back to the idea of dollar cost averaging and have a good core position in index funds to give

you broad market participation and add some extra value elsewhere whether it's through specialized index funds or through individual stock picking and those areas that you think have the bet growth possibilities over the intermediate term. the. >> all right so you can kind of ignore it as long as you have a long enough time horizon. retiring december 21. >> thanks for sharing your thoughts on market today we appreciate it the. >> thank you, kelly. >> nancy pile and david horverss. turning now to retail. we saw monster numbers out of store traffic. online sales soared more than 21%. holiday spending overall could be up 10% this year, the strongest holiday season in two decades, although they warn we could see a bigger than usual spending valley. joining me is the retail analyst at j.p. morgan chris, it's great to have you. for someone like you to say we could be up 10 about and holiday spending really catches my

attention. how so >> it's all about owning the winner if you look at most of my coverage, we're benefitting from a massive $300 billion share of wallet shift to things from entertainment and experiences, so covering companies like home depot and costco and best buy and target, they are gaining a lot of share around eat at home, learn from home, work from home, the excitement around the toys category this year, the excitement around the new gaming platforms with playstation and xbox, so, you know, categories that are getting hit really hard, it's eating out. it's travel, as you know, hotels and airlines and also apparel and bite that's a minority of spending as you take a look at core retail sales, and core retail sales has been growing in the double-digit range over the past couple of months >> so to be clear, chris, do you think we're up 10% just for your coverage universe or for the whole sector >> the whole sector, november and december combined.

if you look at a regression analysis to back-to-school spending which was up stronger in the double digit range, it's about 99% correlated to holiday sales, so if you think about those home categories that the work from home, the electronics and so forth, those categories will be very strong year over year it's going to be expensive apparel. >> holiday spending could be up 4%, incredible that it could be up to 10%. you talked about the spending valley in december howie is veer is that? just a bump along the road or how does that work >> yeah what, you're going to see is retailers spread out their promotions the it actually started with prime day in mid-october with a lot of retailers trying, to you know, also promote about that, so you're pulling holiday promotions earlier so most companies ahead of black friday i think were ahead of my plan across coverage but with black

friday being closed on thanksgiving, black friday, you talked about the mall traffic and traffic overall being down significantly, we're going to start to see this divot in the holiday spending because you would have pulled forward. as you get closer to christmas, however, given that ups and fedex are restricting when you can get a package delivered by christmas, a lot of retailers talking about order by december 15th to guarantee delivery and time for christmas, you'll see a strong bump at the end in brick and mortar traffic because the consumer is going to need to go to the stores, so you can see companies like costco and best buy and target which has fantastic click and collect options being big winners late in the season. >> yeah, i know. target you think could be the big winner walmart may be a little bit lesser so. chris, thanks for joining us we'll check back in as we move along here we appreciate it. >> thank you.

chris horvers on the holiday season. out on main street it's confidence at an all-time low according to a cnbc poll there's some positive signs in small business next and hiring and revenues we'll tell you about that. plus, bitcoin hitting an all-time high with investors saying gold's pain is becoming bitcoin's gain there it is, 19,200 and change we'll delph into that coming up on "the exchange." see yourself. welcome back to the mirror. and know you're not alone because this. come on jessie one more. is the reflection of an unstoppable community in the mirror. ok, just keep coloring there...

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. welcome back to "the exchange." main street confidence has hit a new low amid the pandemic those there's sips of rebounds and revenues kate rogers is here with the details. kate >> reporter: we all know this has been a challenging year for small businesses but there are a few silver linings small business poll for q4 four in ten businesses say that their company's revenue has increased in the last three months, up from 25% last quarter. those saying that revenue has decreased fell from 51% last quarter to 36% in q4 and 41% say that demand has increased. that's up from 35% in july though those trends are not

translating right now to hiring. 11% say their head count has increased this quarter while 18% say it has decreased overall 18% say that conditions are bad. that's down from a high of 40% during the qing of the crisis. 39% now say their conditions are good, a slight uptick from last quarter and 6% say they can continue to operate for a year or more. that number is unchanged all that being said though, kell, you did mention confidence can dip this quarter to a score of 48. that's the lowest level since we began pulling back in 2017 >> yeah. no surprise. this has to be the worst crisis possible we were talking about target and walmart and all the big box stores and how well they are doing. it's unfair. it's also interesting to see that figure that two-thirds of main street businesses think that they can operate for another year which on the one hand you could say is encouraging which on the other hand if that implies a third of them can't >> yeah. that's certainly true.

we have to remember there are a lot of up knowns here, not only with the virus, but we're in between administrations here some business owners polled said they were expecting tax policy changes, potential changes immigration policy that could be weighing on them as well. we've seen dips like this before particularly around tariffs, and as you mentioned this is unprecedented so a lot of uncertainty on main street, not only in our polling but other small business polls as well kelly? >> yeah. it could be a difficult period of time from now until more aide if it is coming. kate, thank you. our kate rogers. coming up, tesla's market cap has gotten so big that its addition to the s&p next month has to be split over two days it a look at all the money set into motion as a result and wall street analysts think it's time to focus on companies that will emerge from the pandemic stronger than ever we've got the names they are most bullish on right now. you can always watch us live on the go ung tsihe cnbc app. "the exclaiming" is back in a couple

welcome back to "the exchange." let's get a check of the markets. the low for the down was 446 down 325 right now, a 1% drop to cap off a monster monster month for all three major averages the s&p down 23, the nasdaq down 45 so it is the dow underperforming. all 11 sectors are in the red. all 11 today energy and financials, the biggest lag yards so, again, this definitely has a bit of an anti-reopening feel to it in the

market today you can see energy down 3.5%, and in terms of the individual movers, nicola is the big story, sharply lower on news that gm is giving up an equity stake. there's a smaller deal done between the two companies but gm will not build the badger. nikola shares are down 20%, gm down 2%. the biggest share of the deal, shares of ihs market are higher after it will officially be acquired by s&p global by $44 billion. market is rallying more than 7% and deals expected to close in the second half of next year but, again, $14 billion deal that's the biggest of 22 yet and shares of jetblue is lower after they expect q4 revenue to decline by 70% shares down 3% today now let's get to sue herera for our cnbc news update. >> good to see you hello, everybody

here's what's happening at this hour prison officials in south carolina say they won't be able to proceed friday with the state's first execution in almost a decade because they can't get the lethal injection drugs they need. many drug-makers are refusing to sell those drugs to states with the death penalty. new jersey's governor is sharply reducing the limit for outdoor gatherings and cancelling all indoor youth and school sports through the end of the year amid rising covid case counts 2020 isn't over yet, but thankfully for many who have felt its wrath, this year's atlantic hurricane season ends today. delta which hit louisiana last month is just one of a record-breaking 30 named storms, more than double the average of just 12. and as one season ends for away, another is beginning look at that, beautiful from central china some gorgeous winter scenes as falling temperatures over the past week brought heavy snow to an

historic site in hannan province you are up to date i could look at that all day kelly, oil send it back to you. >> gorgeous. that is really something sue, thank you so much we appreciate it >> you got if the. >> sue her rare a. let's check the markets which are lower today but the dow is on pace for its best month since january of 1987 investors are focusing on the post-covid recovery and cnbc pro has combed through wall street research for what they say are long-term buying opportunities one of those bullish calls on the street is on lyft from key bank saying lyft is poised to benefit from the city's reopening as people will avoid public transportation for the time being shares of lyft up nearly 70% over the past month. they are trimming about 1% today. wells fargo says capri holding of brands like michael kors and jimmy chu is alive and well. work and dress categories will bounce back next week. shares of capri are down 1% today. you can find the rest names and

analysis behind the picks at cnbc.com/pro. coming up, bitcoin breaks out big time the street gets more bushel on apple and sales force isn't back pentagon off on a deal and why gold is headed to new highs despite its recent selloff. it's coming up in a couple of minutes. don't go anywhere. so get the 5g america's been waiting for. verizon 5g is next level. unlimited plans fit everyone in your family, starting at just $35. with 5g included at no extra cost. plus, you'll get the entertainment and gaming the whole family will love. 100% obsessed with "the mandalorian." (man) i watch a lot of sports. (woman) it has all my favorite shows. switch now and save $700 on galaxy s20 plus. it's like a gift on top of another gift. gifts keep coming at you. everywhere.

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welcome back let's catch you up on a few stories that should be on your radar today. time for rapid fire with michael santoli, seema mody and jon fortt. great to have everybody here we will start with bitcoin which after a horrible thanksgiving reversed to a record high shaking off the big selloff last week thought we'd be talking about that, and today it soared. look at price 19,200 it topped 19,640 which is according to cnbc its previous high water mark. here's what was said today about how high it could be. >> our thing is that it will disrupt gold and if it does that

it has to have a market cap of 9 trillion so that moans bitcoin could price at 500,000 of bitcoin so at 18,000 it's a hold or if you don't have any it's a buy opportunity because we think there's a 25x from here. >> seema, here is my question i've been pondering all morning, so, you've got to enlighten me okay i get that people say there's only 21 million bitcoin and all the institutions are going to pile in now and there's going to be demand from everywhere to fix supply tell me what's been going on with all the other cryptos like the ripples and does anybody else have a fixed supply because why can't we start seema coin and kelly coin and there's going to be 100 ever and everybody else can start piling in and why can't we have a million of those things and at some point will they become competitors to bitcoin and upset that sly/demand apple cart? >> we can, right after rapid fire and create that coin.

here's the thing there's still a level of recognition that bitcoin hold over the other crypt currencies and digital coins out there that has given it sort of a lead amidst all the others, and i think, you know, tyler and cameron, they have been overtly bullish painting this narrative for quite some time. the only difference is here in 2020 they are being joined by a few, a select group of hedge fund investor tapes, many of whom you've spoken to exclusively on your show about the prospects of warming up to bitcoin. the context, these two individuals after the $65 million lawsuit and settlement with facebook, $11 million they put into bitcoin back in 2013 reportedly and since then they have ridden bitcoin up and now it's part of their personal net worth so they have a very big vested interested in seeing this cryptocurrency continuing to move higher. >> yeah. i'm going to ask motorcycle about the gold thing in a second jon, if we go back to what stan

druckenmiller was say, again, this is not like a birks bullish call he was making on bitcoin. he said i recognize it has staying power and i also recognize a lot of the new money out west, for instance, will go into becoin. i mean, how much do you think that is what is driving the latest leg up here, and how much is it it the fact that now with paypal and some of these others, square, you can more easily access it? >> this is crazy you ask what's driving it. the driving cat i think is drivingterm i'm not telling anybody to be long bitcoin or anybody to be short it nobody can explain to me what makes it go up and down. you look at a one-year chart of bitcoin and think about what's happening in the world it just doesn't make any sense, like why does it move the way it moves? so if you want to gamble, if you enjoy, that then go ahead. everybody's got a theory somebody's got a theory it will double they think it will go up 25x sure, have fun but unless you as an investor have a reason why

you think this thing moves, be very careful >> so, mike, let's talk about their analogy which is actually the same reason bill miller has been bullish on bitcoin for years. look, if people start to treat it like gold and put at fraction of their portfolios in it, that's -- that's a huge amount of wealth, whether it's 9 trillion or some other figure. >> sure. >> the fact that bitcoin has been up while gold has been down, would you link those two together saying people are piling in on gold 2.0. >> bitcoin is going up relative to gold. what it does get to though, in fact, everything we've said gets to here is assets don't need to exist in the world if they are not really attached to some kind of a cash flow, but sometimes they get to a point where people all collectively agree, this is an asset it's non-core late it has a role in my portfolio and that goes for gold what's fascinate begun it the premise of olding gold long term has always been, hey, it's been money for thousand of years.

smarter for people for the last 5,000 years and now it's a totally opposite thing which something conjured in a bit of software code 12 years ago is suddenly going to be and take the place of something that's been money forever and that's why it's money today so i think we have to come back to this idea this is thesis creep, by the way. it's not about the ledger or that it will disrupt every other transaction in the world it's worth something >> it's true there's nothing that bothers mike santoli quite like thesis creep. other things are forgivable, but we remember -- all right if you think bitcoin is wild, just wait to hear what's going on with tesla because the stock is set to join the s&p 500 on december 21st. normally that joining would be pretty h ho-hum but not with tesla because it's so massive now. the journal detailed the care asset managers and the trading desks, even the s&p itself is taking when it comes to the move because inclusion could easily put more than $100 billion into

motion as things stand tesla would be the sixth largest component in the s&p after the big five mega tech companies its weighting would be massive from day one there's a debate on whether to add it on one day or spread it over two days or spread it out over two quarters which is what msci did with china two years ago. this -- it -- i understand that s&p's inclusion has been a catalyst for the move higher but half a trillion dollar company makes no sense to me. >> it's amazing, and the farther the stock goes up before it gets in the more friction it creates upon entering out. the index funds won't sit there and wait and buy shares the day it goes in there's a way of getting exposure incrementally and trying to be smart about the execution of it. it's not terribly different than ten plus years ago when berkshire hathaway went in at a similar size relative to the total market cap it was a much less volatile stock though it was not something that was going to necessarily get away

from the index funds now the thing about tesla is the stock itself trades in an enormous amount of dollar values every day. $30 billion, $40 billion is routine and much more about what happens for rest of the index as we have that push and pull of tesla getting in. >> right. >> and that's what people are saying the fact that it's so liquid should help would you apply what you've said about trying to figure out bitcoin to trying to figure out tesla's share price. >> like i'm an old man today yelling get off my line. this scares me like a meteor heading towards the s&p 500. it's bigger in market cap than berkshire hathaway and warning buffet, boring, don't understand technology and steady as she goes tesla has been on this amazing tear it. i defer in all analysis to mike santoli, but, boy, i mean, even if i'm just holding an s&p 500 index fund, i'm worried about tesla's effect much less on

tesla itself. >> it's going to be 1% just about of the index there you go. >> wait, it's a big number and we should hear from is possibly today or any moment now over how exactly they will do this, but stay tuned, everybody, because that will be a difficult one, just the maneuvering of it let's move on and talk about a pair of bullish calls which now looks like a mipo compared to everything else. maybe not a minnow, still a $2 trillion company but it's about upgraded to a buy with a 131 target maybe a little late. you can see the catalyst in upside and max revenue opportunities from the watch and air pod and morgan stanley meanwhile raising its eye phone shipment forecast and bull case, not base case, $191 now. she notes apple has the heist percentage of users likely to upgrade their phones next year in the u.s. and china. seema, i mean, that's, again, we're talking about the big getting bigger here, but in

apple's case the -- you have this idea that, you know, gross margins are peaking and, you know, to 21 could be a very different year, and what do you think about her point about upgrade in the u.s. and china? >> yeah. i mean, it's interesting we see reports on apple no longer a call on the stock it's one of the global outlooks 2021 macro reports because there's just so much to dig into with a company like apple, share size and the different touch points that it has been technology what really featured prominently in that morgan stanley report was the powerful -- the power of the ipad in consumer household going forward, second wave of longdowns. this just means that we're going to be relying more on this type of accessory and technology going forward. i don't know but, kelly, but the hop topic at dinner over thanksgiving was netflix what are you watching? wasn't just sharing ideas about oh, "the crown" on netflix" on

hbo, betting into characters, princess diana, was that true or false, a great depiction of her but it goes not back to the streaming giants but the devices we're used to go consume this content, right >> i'm trying to think did we even watch it? i think we're watching "little baby bum" on netflix i don't think you'll be like the old man shouting get off your lawn on apple story. that's a very profitable company. >> back on the lawn. this one decan actually conceive of because in part apple's got this the new m-1 chip out. not perfect but for a first effort it's amazing. it's powering the new generation of the math. you think about the gross margin implications that have of apple doing the main chip inhouse, not having to pay intel. that could pay amazing dividends over time plus this move that apple has made over the past few days to sort of pacify small business on the app store. if you're investing in apple, you're bullish probably on the

services business growth and the services margin over time. they possibly took a little risk, even regulatory risk off the table by making this slight concession that's not going to cost them too much in revenue to small businesses >> yeah, and i -- i've been fascinated read begun that chip. it makes me want an apple laptop again. that's absolutely a space to watch. we've got to go, but, mike, real quickly. curious to your thoughts as david faber has been reporting we may be close to a sales force/slack deal what should investors need to look for in that >> obviously the specifics of the dollars changing hands sales force stock actually on the weak side today. people may be worried about a little indigestion, the valuation being paid for, but it seems like strategically the logic is pretty intuitive to everybody in terms of slack being folded into that suite of offerings, maybe that much more of a feature or a product than it was a thriving public company so it seems like, you know, makes sense as a fit-together

right here. >> it all feels -- the theme of the whole rapid fire feels like a transition from the old to the new, just at what price, i guess. thanks so much for your time today. jon fortt, mike santoli and seema mody that does it for now. still ahead, retailers are lower with consumer discretionaries, one of the day's biggest lag yards and consumers are going contactless and hoping for big discounts we'll take a look at some big 2020 shopping trends right after this ♪ and never brought to mind ♪ should auld acquaintance be forgot ♪ ♪ and auld lang syne ♪ we'll take a cup of kindness yet ♪ ♪ for auld lang syne next customer please. ♪ ♪ i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security?

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>> welcome back to the exchange." today cyber monday is expected to be the largest day ever for digital sales in the country with spending expected to reach as much as $13 billion, up 35% from a year ago. what does the surge mean for shipping and are supply chains ready to handle what some are calling shipageddon.

frank, how are they minimum waging so far? >> so far on track but things will slow dunn as we get into the throes of the season the likes of ups and fedex are quite taxed right now, and i think it's only going to get worse. >> you know, fedex and ups have seen this coming for months. we know that -- i can tell you any time i shop somewhere whether it was for advent supplies or you name, it they say order early, you know, try to avoid, you know, if it takes amazon an extra day to get me my basics, you know, kind of expect that how are all the different players dealing with this surge and passing off the volume that they don't need or want right now? >> well, in general they are trying to load balance, right. they are trying to figure out is there a way that we can make sales now and start to, you know, sort of flatten the curve, if you will, on the order volts and be able to bring them earlier into the cycle so, you

know, a lot of these retailers have already started their promotions they started them before thanksgiving we're seeing a lot of volume this week online most commerce is becoming e-commerce whether you're doing curbside pickup, that sort thing but we're seeing a huge surge online given the fact that people don't want to go into stores and compete for a big-screen tv right now. >> i'm also curious. i'm looking at your top holiday category so far. number one is lighting is that normal >> you know, it's -- it's not a normal year so i would say that it's probably par for this year, but would i say that things that are really helping how the in the home you know, people want to be comfortable so home goods are real starting to do well people want to feel good so certainly beauty, wellness and health and obviously the entertainment around electronics, video games, that sort of thing seem to be the really big siller so far this year. >> yeah, i know i'm looking for some external christmas lights myself

just now i need -- i want someone to put them up for me, you know, that's the whole package. if they can send that, too that's the hardest part. >> that would be great. >> thanks for joining us, and -- and, you know, keep us posted here as we see how the season goes as it gets into full swing swing. thank you so much for your time today. >> thanks for having me. >> despite closing out one of its worst months in year, our strategist says gold is getting ready to hit all-time highs. why? and how high will it go? that's next. in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds

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welcome back gold hitting a five-month low today as bitcoin surges. gold has dropped more that 10% and on pace for its worst month since 2016 my guenext guest is bullish. let's bring in scott wren, senior global strategist for wells farg oo institute. most are pred katpredicating thr

weakness on gold on the dollar >> gold is up even with the pullback we've had about 17% year to date when you look at the dollar index, it's only down about 5% we're looking for the dollar index to trade modestly lower. i'm an old school guy. it ha it's hard for me to break the gold-inflation relationship. and clearly we have low inflation. it will probably move up a little this year for us i think a big part beside a little bit lower dollar is age major government, every major central bank is printing a lot of money that's not going to stop any time soon. all of these major currencies have depreciated relative to gold that's really where people have been going you're in a low real interest rate world, we've got central banks printing a lot of money and i think those are really two

gigantic factors that are going to help gold between now and the end of 2021. >> how high do you think it going to go? there are colleagues on your street in the 2,100, $2,300 range. where are you? >> we're at $2,150 for year end 2021 for us, you've got a good pullback here and what you need to start doing is looking for spots to step in if you think the central banks are going to keep printing money, if you think real interest rates are going to stay low, if you think the dollar's going to be a little bit lower, you need to start looking at spots. and now probably really a good technical spot is about $100 lower than this. but i think you can kind of leg in on the way down are put some money to work here and if we're correct and that 2,150 is a realistic target out there, that's a nice return

between now and the end of 2021. >> yeah, and here i thought i was going to ask you all about bitcoin. we'll have to leave that to the side >> i'm not an expert on bitcoin at all >> no, more appealing off the gold demand, is it siphoning gold demand into bitcoin the fundamental question i want to quickly ask you is what about the guys like dave zervos who think we're in the handoff phase of recovery. we've had monetary support but it handing off to a self-staining recovery, rates will rise and it will support the dollar and be a head wind for gold >> we're certainly expecting a pretty decent bounceback the key for us is we're not expecting interest rates or inflation to rise very much. we think inflation will be less than half of the longer 50 or 60-year average. so we're not expecting much

inflation. we're expecting a little bit more and we don't think this government deficit spending will go away any time soon. we both know that on either side of the aisle republicans, democrats, they like to spend money. we're in the middle of a pandemic, hopefully at the tail end of it. it probably it's probably a multi-year situation here where we're running pretty good-size deficits >> thanks for making your case, we appreciate it that does it for the exchange, everybody. thank you for tuning in. stick around for power lunch energy is on its best track ever is there more room to run and if so, what names should you by i'll join tyler mathisen after this quick break you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya.

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over a billion dollars in transactions, and more than a half a million clients worldwide, us money reserve is one of the most dependable gold distributors in america. welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. tyler will join me in a moment stocks lower across the board, down about 350 points. sales there salesforce the biggest drag right now. still, it's a november to remember for the major averages. the dow was on track to close out its best month