es over a billion dollars in transactions, and more than a half a million clients worldwide, us money reserve is one of the most dependable gold distributors in america. welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans. tyler will join me in a moment stocks lower across the board, down about 350 points. sales there salesforce the biggest drag right now. still, it's a november to remember for the major averages. the dow was on track to close out its best month since january

'87, the russell small caps up 20%, its best month ever can the run continue and moderna says it's ready to file for emergency use while novavax announces a second delay in its late trials we have the details. p "power lunch" starts right now it wouldn't be a record rally if there weren't some bumps along the way. was today just a one-day pause or something more? let's go to bob pisani for more. hi, bob. >> hello, kelly. it actual it's actually not a bad day. we were down 447 points, we've regained almost half of that if you look at what's down today, energy stocks, some up 30% for the month. that's down. bank stocks, another amazing rally. look at this, tech is up

apple's had a monster day, up overall some of the semiconductors also doing well health care is down fractionally, that's a defense of group if you look at what's going on for november and the value cyclical location, this must be an all-time record for energy stocks banks up almost 20%, industrials as a cyclical group. so they're not selling tech but buying some of the cyclical and value groups that's goldie locks, folks it doesn't get any better than this how about december everybody's optimistic, i would say. be a little careful here it's up 73%. >> that's the good news. here's bad news when you get really big gains in november, it tends to hurt december

and we had really big gains. we're up 10% so whenever the s&p has risen 5% or more in november, december has generally posted subpar gains. and, kemlly, nation some sense you have 10% before that, how much more juice do you have, even with the reopening. we have optimism that some kind of stimulus is coming and optimism that the damage from the covid winter we're going to go through for the next four months is not going to be as severe as a lot of people think. there's an awful lot of optimism built into this, a lot of personal assumptions the market is making. today people are reconsidering that and i think it's certainly very healthy >> thank you very much how will those record gains he was just rattling off impact the

traditionally good decision? let's bring in liz ann saunders who is about to release her outlook any moment now do you share the concerns bob was mentioning forget the seasonal effect i don't know what people expect after a month when you're 10% of major averages, 30% for energy >> seasonals broadly are in the camp of the bulls and are favorable for the bulls as is the breladth of the market and in the near term sentiment has become a problem it was in conjunction with what was the initial vaccine? that was really a turning point. where we went from sentiment from early september, we had seen a lot of speculative froth but it was concentrated in the cohort of newly minted day

traders in areas like single-stop call options it wasn't pervasive across behavioral oral attitudinal sentiment. it sort of spread that sort of speculative optimism across most sentiment measures in addition to the market having gotten a bit overbought, you have that frothy sentiment generally when you have still strong breadth, that tends to be an offset to sentiment and the weakness is a bit more limited what i would worry about as we head to the end of the year is if sentiment stays frothy and we lose some of that bigger breadth. >> that's an interesting way to watch it to see if the breadth starts nay owin -- narrowing.

i hadn't thought about it that way. can you give us any glimpses about what your outlook foretells for 2021 >> sure. our view about the economy is not much different than the consensus. i think the vaccines represents the pull forward but the virus represents the push down right now. it's a bit of an overused analogy that the vaccine represents the light at the end of the tunnel but the acknowledgement we're still in the tunnel gdp estimates have been trending higher, first quarter have been coming down as we're prevaccine in the milds of tdst of the virs impact sent men whiment when it gets tn extreme isn't indicative of a market in a moving fashion

it just establishes greater vulnerability to the extent there's a negative catalyst. and there could be negative catalyst associated with the vaccine, with fiscal relief, not getting in the lame duck section, maybe less than a anticipated post-election. i could go on and on what they could be they don't have to be out of the realm of narratives out of play all along. it's that stretch sentiment means there's a bit more vulnerability. so those are the key things to look for in terms of the economy, i'd say look for the measurements of scarring as it's often called. i think especially within the labor market things like permanent job losses versus temporary job losses, long-term unemployment i think those are the key metrics to watch heading into 2021 to judge the long-term scarring impact on the economy of this virus. >> i guess my final question is when we're talking about the

action in bitcoin, talking about the size of tesla and that one is much more important you could say because it's going into the s&p 500, do those concern you, either one of those or anything else out there in terms of, you know, not so much even as bellwethers, just in and of themselves >> i don't cover individual stocks, tesla or any other stocks what i know about bitcoin could fit in a thimble with room left over its day-to-day volatility is four times greater than the s&p. certainly understand what you're getting there. i'm not sure it represents any sort of hedge against traditional equity market behavior but specific to names like tesla, the prior big five names that were dominating performance to such a significant agree until september 2nd and tesla wasn't in the s&p at this point,

but the big five, it was 6,200 basis points versus the other 495 stocks they were up 65% year to date on september 2nd. the others were up 3%. that trend has been trending down it shows you can have a rotation where you start to see some of the speculative froth ease without the entire bottom falling out. the underlying fundamentals are strong enough to justify they don't cause a 2000-2002 scenario, not to say there wasn't a tremendous amount of speculative froth in their trading, as well as reflected in valuation metrics will is a benign scenario where you ease that through a process of rotation without having experience a crash like the

bubble >> we hope for a soft landing. it makes 30% in energy a lot better we have a lot of catching up to do >> liz ann sonders of merrill schwab >> let's go to meg tirrell nova vax saying they've fully enrolled two studies, one in the u.k. and one 2b trial in south africa and expect they could have data in the first quarter. however, their phase three trial in the united states and mexico will begin in the coming weeks that is a bit of a delay from when they were going to start it we talked with the ceo stan urk about why the delay this morning. here's what he said. >> it's just the typical process

of making product at large scale, interacting with the fda, getting feedback and getting it started. we're on our way >> he did, however, weigh in on the moderna and pfizer news saying it bodes well for their vaccine as well and those two vaccines are going quickly toward the fda pfizer has filed for emergency use authorization, and moderna saying it has now filed and is going to filed with an fda meeting on september 17th and the fda will decide potentially after those meetings we talked with moderna as well results today he called promising and what's to come for another group that hasn't been involved in these trials, kids here's what he said about that >> our goal for children have to have spring from 11 to 17-year-old age group. we hope to get this age grouply

regul -- by regulatory agency by the end of spring, which will allow us to vaccinate the 17-year-olds, they can go back to school. >> so the initial rollout will be just for adults until we get the results in younger people. the cdc has an advisory meeting tomorrow when we see the first vote on who should be prioritized in the first group kelly? >> certainly moderna shares are higher are you surprised at nova their novavax shares >> perhaps it's optimism the great results for moderna and pfizer bode well for his vaccine as well.

check that chart out it's incredible volatile, up significantly on friday, something like 22% it's a stock that moves around quite a bit. so we'll dig into why the 12% raise here in the u.s. today >> if you dug into every 12% move, it's all you'd do. novavax up 50% over the last week stocks are under pressure with the tech sector. the only one in the greenright now and only about 0.2%, energy is the worst performer down nearly 4% but coming off a monster gain this month, up nearly 30% plus nikola crashes we'll have details when "power

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welcome back president-elect joe biden confirming today he will nominate janet yellen as treasury secretary let's go to ylan mui >> she's been white house chief chi economist, chair of the federal reserve and now treasury secretary.

the nationamerican bankers asson came out in favor and even some republicans like pat toomey are praising her expertise and heather boushey and jared bernstein. a close ally of hillary clinton is seen as a more political figure but the common theme that runs through all of these nominees is they have largely and forcefully argued for another major round of coronavirus relief and said now is not the time to worry about the debt and deficits. but, kelly, biden still has a $5 trillion economic agenda so the question for him will be once the pandemic is over, is he going to have the fiscal space to enact it. back over to you >> ylan, my understanding is

that it kind of what the voters did that is shaping his administration and his agenda as much as anything let's call it the purple congress, that would lead to a pick for janet yellen instead of a brainard or warren if we had a blue wave, i think he'd be building a much bigger administration with spending plans. they're going to have to work with republicans and they're not going to be able, i wouldn't imagine, unless we lose the senate seats in georgia both to the republican party, won't have the financial wherewithal to do it either, right >> right so there is the political realities of governing in a time of divided government, but there's also the question, kelly, of what is the starting point. what we saw last week was progressive groups come out against one of the rumored picks that biden was considered for director of the white house budget office and that is bruce

reid, someone who worked on the simpson bowles commission, someone who tried to find a way to balance the budget. progressives were concerned if that was a starting place that maybe biden would not even try to push for a lot of the campaign promises he made on the trail. where do you start that impacts where you end up and where those negotiations eventually end you're going to see that push and pull happen within the democratic party i think over the next few years right now there is unanimity around the need to go big on the pandemic once the pandemic is when you'll see the real nitty-gritty of the debate again >> agreed. that's where it gets interesting. and and meanwhile are we squared away to keep the government funded, to come up with some kind of stimulus plan that i would imagine would be the top priority come, what, january 20?

what's the date you're hearing for that at this point >> reporter: so right now the conversations and negotiations to keep the government funded past december 11th do look to be on track the appropriators have met with their subcommittees and agreed to some top line numbers for all of the different agencies. they haven't made that number public yet but those talks are still ongoing. i'm hearing the real question will be what will the president decide he's not been a big fan of giant spending bills in the past will he decide to throw a wrench in this process at the last minute right now it seems like democrats and republicans on the hill are able to come to an agreement. will they be able to reach an agreement with the white house as well in and on top of that, can they add in any type of coronavirus relief, even if it's something small ball like renewing ppe or extending unemployment benefits. could that be added to the discussion or would that derail the train and we'd end one a big

old mess on december 11th? that's what's being debated. >> ylan, thank you so much markets are heading lower at least on reports on the economy. friday's job's reports steve liesman, could it be a negative number? >> some possibility here, kelly. the consensus of forecasters looks for a slowing but a still positive pace of job growth to be reported friday for november, but there's extra reason for caution. some of the high frequency data we've been following in this pandemic used to predict jobs has turned negative. look at our road back barometer. looking for job creation from 425,000, down from 638,000 in october, a range of 150 to 550 but look at that time growth down 0.2%.

if it's right, well, maybe the consensus is a bit too high. a reason for caution restrictions on gatherings in states have crept up, though not nearly as widespread as last year jpmorgan's model sees losses of more than 800,000. "a number of travel and transit related indicators have declined recently andthese indicators have been the most highly correlated with payroll employment under covid-19. hold on, jpmorgan's actual forecast for positive growth at 350,000. that's a sign, californiakelly, economists not quite ready to use the high frequency data to completely rely on for their forecast >> so no matter what, a slowing. you have to wonder about retail hiring, which has been

offsetting job losses elsewhere. >> ukg inside their report say retail is actually down 0.1% for november this is a big month for hiring that's a reason for caution again, what's happening in the retail sector. amazon's hiring a lot of folks but not a lot of people in the actual physical stores that's where the hiring challenges are going to be and the seasonal adjustments will expect a lot of hiring. you could get an extra bounce down from that as well >> that's great point. it's on aggregate a weak point on what should be a strong time of year. still ahead, the dow down about 300 points right now but looking to close out the month of november, which has been super strong salesforce a big decliner there, chevron and boeing among the big laggards you can see apple in the green leading the way up nearly 3% retail stocks are sinking as in-store traffic craters 50% on black friday but a handful of

names are finding a reprieve in surging online sales more details when "power lunch" continues. students of color typically do not have access to high quality computer science and stem education. ♪ i joined amazon because i wanted to change education and i am impatient. amazon gives me the resources to change the world at a pace that i want to change it. ♪ we provide students stem scholarships and teachers with support. ♪ i'm a fighter and i'm fighting for all students.

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for one of its worst days ever this as general motor will forget an equity steake in the vehicle maker. joining us to talk more about the potential fallout for nikola is tim higgins, a cnbc contributor and reporter at the wall street journal. my stints is that this could have been a lot worse for nikola what do you make of the reaction >> the original idea of the company was heavy duty trucks that were going to be able to eventually do long haul. that's kind of the idea of this future of long haul transportation is potentially going with fuel cell technology and not the battery technology that we see in a car like tesla. so essentially it's changing the bet. is nikola going to be this company that helps usher in a new way of trucking? previously the bet was make they

were going to have a pickup truckwould rival the cyber truck that elon musk is making >> having covered gm for a long time, they have long talked about the potential for fuel cell technology. gm had been exploring that technology for a couple generations. it's the idea that it would be a more efficient way to move vehicles long distances. and really that potential is maybe what gm sees in the future there, in part because it helps them commercialize that technology they've been developing so in theory if this deal plays out, here could be a customer for that technology helps them put in the tooling and pay for that technology and develop a market for it. it's been a chicken or egg kind of thing, are you going to have fueling stations

are there going to be customers? it has slowly record out in a world where everyone wants to talk about tesla because electric cars are on the road now and -- they were being powered essentially by laptop batteries. >> so what is the path forward for nikola has it significantly changed in light of today's news? and why is gm staying involved is this just kind of a flier fo it or is it a significant part of its future investments? >> well, it would seem they took a look under the hood and didn't want to necessarily bet a lot on the company going forward, the idea they were originally going to get an equity stake this at least provides them with a client for that fuel sell technology that could potentially be a win for gm for nikola, perhaps it allows them to focus on the original idea of heavy duty trucks.

they have a plan for late next year and europe and fuel cells in the future, really getting back to the original idea so it could help them. really the challenge is going to be they've been betting on the fact that bigger, deep-pocketed companies were going to be helping them usher in the technology and the loss of gm is the loss of a huge endorsement that helped fuel that massive spike in value that we saw in the shares in the last few months >> tim, since we have you and since it's come up in this conversation, what are your thoughts on tesla? we're going to find out after 5 p.m., i believe, how s&p does plan on adding it, whether it's over two days or longer. i guess that's more of the story about the equity but the fact that this is a $500 billion market cap company, i just wonder where does it go from here? >> well, the challenge is going to be the challenge it's been for the last few years and that's going to be executing,

especially next year elon musk trying to put in the production capacity globally that is going to be able to allow that growth that investors think is possible. and it's going to be very difficult, no doubt. everything has to really click that's kind of what's happened this year in a lot of ways they've been able to benefit from that. they got production in china going just the right time that allowed them to weather the covid problems and really been the winner here in covid now next year they've got to just do it again, have a factory open in germany, they need to open the factory in texas. they've got a lot of up in products coming out and just continuing that never-ending pace of growth is really going to be a challenge. >> yeah, he's been the ultimate kind of clutch player all along here every time -- he's like the klay thompson of the car industry tim, thanks for joining us today. really appreciate it speaking of tesla, despite

the huge run in these names, electric vehicle are some of the most shorted right now, tesla is the shortest even though the stock has risen 650% this year and nio down today. and brick and mortar getting crushed today after the online black friday results come in we'll discussion all of it when "power lunch" returns.

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♪ and auld lang syne ♪ we'll take a cup of kindness yet ♪ ♪ for auld lang syne next customer please. ♪ ♪ it's moving day. and are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours?

delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera arizona has certified joe biden is the winner in the state's presidential election. the state's republican governor and attorney general are standing by the decision, but the head of the arizona republican party says she intends to challenge the

results. the san francisco 49ers are moving to arizona for their next two home games the niners need a new place to play after a local band shut down levi stadium, their usual home in the bay area >> in illinois, a strike in a nursing facility is entering its second week. >> and many people have found new pets during the pandemic but maybe none like this pooch he has become a co-pilot for santos, and is hoping -- helping to deliver food. and wearing a taxi bandanna on tom of all of that back to you, kel >> it is interesting that those nfl teams, they say you can't play in your home stadium, all right, we'll pick up and go

somewhere else imagine if everybody else had that luxury. >> the nfl has really been decimated by the virus and they're trying to just get in enough games so that they have a decent docket for the super bowl, if they have a super bowl. so, yeah, it's strange times >> i know. got to see what happens with the steelers sue, thank you very much we appreciate it let's get a quick check on markets right now. dow down 446 points at the lows, we're 100 points off that, down around 360 a 1.2% drop. nasdaq positialmost positive, d only 15 points let's go to brian for the opec news >> kind of an interesting time first off oil prices down a little bit today we want to watch them tomorrow, though to p tod today we had an opec meeting they haven't mattered much in six months made a deal in april

this meeting mattered a lot. they're talking about increasing production on january 1st. you just talked about covid shut downs, lock downs in europe and the united states. here's what happened today nothing. there was no deal made today they're supposed to have the opec plus meeting with russia and others tomorrow. the opec meeting will resume tomorrow morning, if they get a deal then the opec plus meeting will happen, could happen wednesday as well. there could be two opec meetings tomorrow if we do not get a deal for a production cut extension tomorrow, that's when you're going to watch the price of oil. traders sending the stocks down today. dow down a bit but the majority of the big oil stocks, exxon, chevron, hess, you name it, down 3 to 5%. oil didn't move a lot but oil stocks did it's been the hottest sector in

the stock market if opec doesn't come together, watch for the low on the oil stocks >> now i can figure out what to focus on brian sullivan there let's talk more about the meeting he mentioned and energy's really strong month we bring in ed morris. and pavel. ed, i'll start with you on the commodities themselves do you have agree with brian that kind of watch out below if we don't get this deal tomorrow? >> yes, watch out below is going to be very prescient o they we they were having a deal three months to six months and that's not in the cards any longer. now at best they may have a one-month extension. it's abu dhabi and opec and will they decide to put more oil in

the market and how they deal with a little bit of cheating that's been going on the chances on my mind are overwhelming they're going to have a deal. they can't afford not fop thto they don't want to look at $30 oil again. probably a very short extension. >> you know, i also read about how eager a lot of the u.s. players are to get back to drilling i see we ceded our position as the world's biggest producer >> if you look at all liquids being produced, the u.s. is still dominant we're at the peak last winter. over a 20 million barrel a day producer, natural gas, biofuels and other things that count as liquids. we're down to a mere 18 million a day. that's still a lot bigger than anybody in opec.

they are producing less than 10 million a day. it has affected drilling drilling has been on the rise the last couple weeks. we've been adding about ten horizontal rigs a week if we keep it up at this pace, by sometime around april at this pace we'll be at 415 rig utilization rate that's the number, that's the magic number that allows the u.s. to continue on an even keel without seeing declines further setting in if it goes above that, as i suspect it will given our price projection, we'll have growth in u.s. production between mid year and the end of the year next year and opec is looking at that no doubt about the fact that they've lost market share largely because of the u.s. production >> i know you think we're keeping oil prices routely whghe

they are into the first quarter of next year pavel, here's lots of talk about whether exxon can continue to fund its dividend, lots of talk about the valuations of these plays and whether more consolidation is needed. where would you have investors being positioned specifically in the energy space right now >> well, the number one question right now is the macro commodity outlook and principally i'm focused more on demand rather than supply. the opec decision on three-month extension, that's all well and good the real question is how much closer to pre-covid levels will global demand get to over the next six to 12 months? if we're still at 95, 96 million barrels of demand which the end of next year, it's not going to matter much what opec does there's just not going to a

balanced market. that's the simple reality of it. this is where we get into the current back drop of lockdowns and the outlook to vaccines for the end of next year the point about dividends, again, what is the picture of demand going to look like? without meaningful demand recovery towards the end of next year, there is no way oil prices can set new highs and therefore dividend will be at risk across the board. >> and is that why you have an underperform on exxon? why are you underperform on exxon but outperform on chevron, pavel? >> exxon individually has a problem with its balance sheet, with its cash flow dynamics and separate and distinct from the price of oil which is a tide that lifts or lowers all boats, exxon has a giant chemical base that has been struggling for more than a year, so pre-covid

and it's very exposed to the natural gas market in europe, which is fundamentally in a glut, even before the european climate law, which if anybody has not circled this on their calendar, do so right now, december 10th and 11th, the most important policy decision of the year coming down the pike and exxon is inextricably linked to what that decision is going to be in less than ten days >> it certainly wasn't circled on my calendar before but it is now. thanks so much for all the insight. ed morris to you as well and talking about the energy space on a monster, monster month. tyler, over to you >> kelly, you know, when tyler is your i.t. department and your engineering department, things can get really gnarly and they did. >> i get paid the same amount so it's all good.

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folks, welcome back to "power lunch." we go back to the bond market where rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. >> hi, tyler we look at the intra day chart and everything you need to know is right there we open up but we've just been drifting look at a month-to-date chart of what's going on in a ten-year note yield it ended last month, october, at 87 basis points. so we are now officials higher price lower yield than we finished last month on the long maturities i think that's very relevant we want to pay very close to attention to 75 basis points below and the resistance between 92 and 96 basis point on top. euro versus dollar, like interest rates it's lost a lot of ground. up see the high there? 120 and change why is that important? it's important for a number of reasons. it's a 31-month high, and, b,

there's a lot of strike price option a thet 120 in the options that will be a resistance level. back to you. >> zoom is up this year. the company reports reports after the bell can it meet the sky high expectations we'll explore that wn ce ghbackheweom i felt like... ...i was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. so when i heard about the applied digital skills courses, i'm thinking i can become more marketable. you don't need to be a computer expert to be great at this. these are skills lots of people can learn. i feel hopeful about the future now. ♪

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valuation that you mentioned for the third quarter, the street is expecting revenue growth north of 300% that comes on top of growth of 355% in the second quarter that raises a few key questions. one, how does that hold up when people go back to in-person work, at least in some form? those comps are going to be extremely difficult when revenue growth is expected to fall back into the teens next year. in the longer term, investors are asking can zoom be more than a video conferencing platform. zoom officials want them to become the go-to for every way that we talk to colleagues family, and friends, be that video phone, chat, or otherwise. the o.'s next big bet is the very things he disrupted, office phones and conference rooms. evident havors are eager to hear more on the earnings call which

kicks off at 5:30 eastern. >> fascinating company what they have done in a year's time is just remarkable. let's talk about retail stocks pulling back just a bit today. still closing out november with a 20% monthly gain is the run done? or will it be a happy holiday? we will be right back to explore that one. don't forget folks, you can catch up with us all the time on the cnbc app so you can go to us live we'll be right back. so get the 5g

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welcome back, everybody. e-commercedom nagt of course on black friday and holiday weekend shopping over all. online sales surge 22% to a record $9 billion just over the weekend while instore traffic down 52% check out some of the brick and mortar retail stocks feeling that pain. they include some of the big ones, macy's, gap, nordstrom, coles they are all lower right now. here to discuss it brian nagle of oppenheimer i guess this is what you would have expected that foot traffic would be down during a pandemic and a weekend when everybody was advised to stayat home and online shopping is up, probably for good. >> i think it is very expected we also have to keep in mind there is a lot of cross currents right now. a lot of the retailers and brands started their holiday promotions or holiday sales significantly earlier this year.

i know -- as retail analysts we are accustomed to looking at sales over the thanksgiving holiday black friday weekend but sales have been more spread out this year. that's another factor to consider in all this. >> the hot stay hot, don't they, brian? i drove by a nike outlet in central new jersey this weekend. the lines were 150 people long just to get in the store nike is hot, lululemon is hot, correct? >> yeah, those are two of my favorite picks they have very, very strong brands and importantly we are looking at this play out and clearly covid is having an impact. what is happening those companies with digital footprints object back bones are performing much better company brands like nike and lululemon have been very good at building out their digital capability consumers can shop those brands without having to go to stores. >> they are the products that fit the times.

people are dressing more casually you put on a pair of lulu lemons or workout gather from nike and you are all set for the day. there is 30 stop that you like that is a smaller scale. what is it and why? >> much smaller company, love sac. they have two products, the sack-tional and the sac. it is a modular sofa i think it also plays -- small company, digital footprint they have a number of company operated showrooms but again they sell primarily digitally. it plays into the concept of people now spending more time in their homes and wanting to outfit those homes with better products. >> yep yep. all right, brian, thank you very much that must be love sac on line, calling on line there. i love the song love scheck by the b-52s, kelly

one of the best ones of all time, great dance song. >> i don't know where to begin with that right now. >> no. no just leave it alone. >> yeah. we have got a dow that's down now. >> goods the see you even if -- >> and the nasdaq has just gone positive >> good to see it even if it was a brief one you. >> watch for the subplots in these shows. thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. it certainly does. welcome to the "closing bell," i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen stocks selling off to close out what has been an otherwise stellar month. let's lock at what's drivening the action the dow is down 1% or so, but still set for its beth months since 1987, up 11.5% the russel on pace for its best month ever of course up 19%. growth stocks outperforming today. tech the only s&p sector in the green. energy the worst approximating sector,