spurt next year. >> and yet the inclination he would be voting for action from the fed next month though he said he would go into it with an open mind. the dollar was soft down 0.3%. equities were down we are out of time "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee tonight on fast, break out your winter coats because the market is entering the chill zone that's the message from tommy. and what sent this stock to new all time highs later, if you unground it, will they come? a high stakes show of confidence but are customers convinced it

is safe to fly according to one of our traders, check out the yield curve between ten and 2-year treasury. are rates off to the races karen, you flagged this. >> i don't know if it will cross this record rally. we don't want rates to skyrocket too quickly, but it is telling us that the expectation is that the economy will heat up we have seen that in resources sim talks about, have seen it in energy seeing it in the banks even though they are not a giant spread it's indicative of expectation of a heating up economy, maybe also more stimulus i also have a big inflation bet

on because i do think there is a chance that inflation gets away from the feds, and i don't know what they would do >> in the shorter to medium time, it has to be a goldie loux it has to be just right? >> not too hot, not too cold normalized rates coming out of this but wherever we were coming into covid, we were between 140 and 175. karen pointed out the trades that are beneficiary or extra boost. we haven't been at 350 since march of 2013. look at steel companies -- not just u.s. steel, but look at names you can track.

i think you have a case where the assessment is about normalizing. it is not that we are in great shape. i think we are in a tough place for markets. but we aren't near normalization at this point. then later on, fiscal, even if that is a disappointing number, it is going to continue to rally. you don't buy commodities when they are cheap you buy them when they are running and expensive. >> when we say we, we, we, we are taking the perspective wha is happening with the economy. i am sure guy would have pointed this out there is a full recovery post covid going on in asia and that is helping heat up the prospects as well with the thoughts things in the u.s. could be restarted >> first of all, nobody eats

porridge, ever do you know what it is >> i thought it is like oatmeal or cream of wheat. >> cream of wheat. goldilocks makes me as crazy as turkey day >> come on >> i think karen is right. as long as rates go higher gradually, it is okay. be careful what you wish for because it could happen. karen pointed out freeport, u.s. steel, a number of different names that have been off to the races. in terms of the banks we did the math game and i took the math in college one day and we pointed

out when kcitibank was trading at.41, we said it made no sense. where it should go, 85% is reasonable it's at 80% now. i hit it that's where we are going into banks and then we could have another conversation. >> dan, what is your take? >> i think these guys surrounded the trade, mel i would say we have had this sharp move off the bottom. i like to draw lines, took an art class for one day in college. guy went to math class one day go back 20 years to 7% and then topped out at 5% prior to the financial crisis and then 3% about two years ago and right before the pandemic at 2%. this was before the feds had to

take emergency action bringing the rates to zero. i draw a line and say go to 1.5, have at it as tim might say. but every time we have seen a rise in rates we have seen a knee-jerk reaction in stocks going back four years. i think it is like guy said, careful what you have wished for. after we have tacked on trillions on to our deficit, i don't think anybody wants to see anything go too far too fast >> so let's have the fed steps in the fed is buying boat loads of bonds. it could change what it buys and buy more on the long end of the

curve. >> if you guys freak out at 393 on the tenure, what are you going to do at 90% what is going to happen to you people i think the fed watches this i think there is a little bit of concern, but unlike a lot of the policy that needs to be fixed which is what powell has been pounding the table about as you suggest, melissa, they can buy more bonds totally or change the tenor of their portfolio. they can sell the shortened or buy the long end and bring that curve down i don't believe they are at a particular point of concern. i said this on the show this morning. i wouldn't freak about inflation until i see the economy back to work i think that's because people forget that what's happening in the economy is a supply side and

demand side issue. there are supply side and demand side not happening i don't know if there is mismatch relevant you have to supply and demand. i don't think they get there yet. i think they get to the things you are looking at let's wait until things settle down and supply and demand more in line. >> the fed has always been very cautious, steve, when it comes to taking measures during this pandemic and has stepped into parts of the market it didn't look like it needed to step into i guess i am thinking of corporate bond buying and i guess it was job owning that got them under control even job owning could help that could help with borrowing costs and help a lot of those

companies who are having trouble servicing debt during this time. that could have positive effects. >> i think that's an issue for that, i would also put up the five-year chart. the five-year is one more closely tied to the cost of corporate credit spreads on high yield and investment, those are very narrow right now i don't think there is an issue on the cost of corporate borrowing. the fed will indeed step in and do so without much reservation it had going where no fed had gone before at the beginning of this crisis. i would also say that the fed is going to want to look at the reason why rates are rising. if rates are rising because prospects for the economy are better, i think it will abide that >> steve, thanks for being on.

as the fed goes out in duration, it will obviously get more expensive for them do they care about that or deficits don't matter at all for the next i don't know how long >> when you say more expensive for the fed to buy more, the fed doesn't think of itself as a profit and loss making organization it doesn't have that issue as some of the central banks do that won't be an issue i think the feds have an unlimited ability to do what it thinks it needs to do for the economy. it could go to negative interest it doesn't want to do that for a whole lot of reasons and certainly won't. but it could do that it does have concern being perceived to be financing the deficit, but where and how you make that distinction with what the fed is doing now versus $120

billion a month for treasury and market functioning and deficit you can say it is not for that reason, but the effect, it almost certainly does. >> steve, it's tim the fed is the estimated profit. they are not going to change the fact but the minute they change the communication is part of the story here so that's more what i worry about. we know the fed is going to err on being overly lax. but any change in some sense about reeling in even extraordinary? don't you think that will have a massive impact on rates and perversely on stock market, too. >> i am with you, steve and on timing which is grateful dead timing >> yes, you are. >> here is an important point.

think about the interest rate policy and the quantitate i have rate i am going to keep interest rates at or near zero. why? until inflation rises above 2%. everybody on the panel raise your hand if you think there is noie nuns ra no enunciated reason the market has no vulnerability. i think that's why the panel is talking about this the fed has yet to do as good a communication on asset purchases

as interest rates. >> let's hope jerome powell is listening. guy, what is the market reaction is if the fed decides to buy on the curve? >> i am sure that will be championed and bullish just like any other bull action. the only time the market goes negative is when the fed decides not to act or take away from their bowl of goodies. it's interesting steve said something he said the fed is there when the market acts -- i'm paraphrasing -- when the market doesn't behave properly. we just have a disagreement here when my kids were younger, you have to let them ride their bicycle. they are going to fall off, but they have to learn how to do it. same with the market the fed has to back away at some point and let the chips fall

where they may but unfortunately they have themselves in a person where they can't and it was proven in october of 2018 when the market went down 19% when jerome powell said we are going to normalize rates in a systematic fashion. the feds are getting in deeper than they should be. and the chill zone forecast. he is ready to buy at a dip. i want to ask you first, at what level are you concerned about the ten-year yield from a market standpoint >> is it 1%, 1 point i have no idea what i do want to say is i think if you do get a nuance where the

fred comes in and starts to aggressively buy the treasury ri, i don't know that would be such a bullish move. it has been an extraordinary month. the backdrop is how it has been prescribed you have an extraordinary, extraordinary excess of liquidity and at the same time you have this synchronized global recovery. remember in 2011 when the ecb raised rates into the teeth of the crisis you will not get that this time. you have a monetary fiscal stimulus globally at the same time as this economic recovery >> so it would be negative --

>> i am not looking for a big drop i just don't think up 20% in a month, history shows generally whatever you get it after that, which could mean upside for december, at some point you are going to buy it back that was the purpose of the note you have had such an extraordinary run, i would much rather buy in a weakness the percentage of s&p components trading above the 10-day average above our initial shot going into this quiet period, the s&p today was up 66% so even though the indexes go to

a high -- >> tony -- >> tony -- >> guy, why don't you go >> i apologize, tim. we are at 3700 and s&p 500 is 3500 too far at this point? >> what happens in a pause or a correction or consolidation is it comes out of nowhere. it's not covid it's not the things you can anticipate. you hadn't had the vaccine yet and that was a bullish time to

buy. guy, i don't know if there is a quote, unquote level i would look to be a buyer it is framework. framework is something i have talked a lot on the show about when the percentage of stocks drops into single digit, meaning more than 90% are below the ten-day moving average, in a bull market that is enough but to me, again -- i have said it for four months this level of excess liquidity and this recovery, that's why, they are already discounting that yield >> just to clarify, tony, i am not sure you put the number with the chill. it sounds more like a breeze 3 to 5% pullback >> yeah. we have already had -- the market is acting like it did in the fall

you had three corrections that ranged between 3 and 7%. you had september and then the whoosh in october before election the third one could just be a minor one that sets the stage for the next leg higher. i certainly don't want to come across as the market is going to get blasted. you have excess enthusiasm everybody has jumped on the band wagon of this global recovery trade. that's usually when it's time to pause and wait for better opportunity. >> tony, thank you you can year more about analysts year end calls. head over to our website to sign up an overbought, enthusiastic

market seems like nothing. >> i think it's fair i would go a little deeper than that you have room. guy was talking about 3400, maybe a little below that. and you have the setup which is a multimonth beast into the new year i don't think you want to get too far ahead of yourself with this extreme positive sentiment in december. i think that willful forward some performance early next year the world was convinced, or at least the investment community, were convinced that equities were a buy they went up and kept on going i feel like where we are and what we have to contend with and what we don't know about the vaccine and when our population -- when the global population is going to be

inoculated, i feel like there should be a little more fear in the market i just don't think you wantto see equities close at the tippy top after the year we had in 2020 it could set up for a nasty q 1 in 2021. >> crowd strike beat its top and bottom line. they came in just shy of a billion dollars. nothing more important than arr crowd strike crushed the quarter which could be indicative. the founder of crowdstrike

saying the quarter was driven by demand and strength. he highlighted 87% subscription growth and record new customers. they provide cloud based security for roughly half of the companies in the fortune 500 that is a growing priority for a work from anywhere environment >> thank you there was a survey out and they found among the survey participants, they said this was a category they would increase spend on so crowdstrike would be a beneficiary of that work from home up 88% that is staggering. >> it is but part of the reason is because of the strength of their growth in the fortune 500. people wanted to see this with a

lot of the software based companies. when you get back to crowdstrike, they are truly making themselves essential within the fortune 500 i hate the valuation i don't chase it here. those were fantastic numbers that's the story here and the story around security. that will continue to stay hot >> the nightmare before christmas. what this means for the stock and uber hitting an all time high exshares may look like other etfs. but inside... there's advanced research, modeling and refinement. constructing funds that don't simply follow an index. but explore new terrain. helping you fill portfolio gaps. connect to client goals. and strengthen confidence in you. flexshares. powered by over a century of investment expertise. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses.

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welcome back to "fast money. ups restricts nike, gap delivery ahead of the holiday surge ups and fed ex already raised prices already what does it mean? >> i think it's good for them right now. about nine months ago there was a different sentiment from the

investor class looking at these two stocks, it means they have tremendous pricing power and have the ability to structure longer term deals with customers that maybe they didn't feel like they had the deal to last year especially when we know that amazon was investing heavily we talked about companies doing well i would consider this to be a trend that sticks around and these guys have pricing power going forward. >> this is about management flow we just learned that walmart is basically saying free shipping on everything for their plus members. i would imagine that keeping walmart happy is more important than maybe servicing smaller customers. >> i would second whatever dan said i agree with the backdrop being

positive you have customers demanding your product you can raise prices and they are still demanding your product and you are telling them they have to ration i switched from ups to fed ex. they are going to trade together ups is 22 multiple fedex has been in a multiyear and are finally sticking they are both good >> we have a lot more ahead. here is what is coming next. >> look up in the sty. it's a bird, a plane, the boeing 737 max. we will get a look inside the repurposed jet as it gets back in the air for the first time in two years. and liftoff for ftly why the company is surging we have that and more when we

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welcome back you are witnessing video of a boeing 737 max today. >> you saw the people. it was media and reporters showing it is a good plane i talked to a couple of reporters that were on it. they said it felt like any other 737 that takes off and lands they made this flight after

upgrading, putting in new flight control software, making all of the changes. at the end of the month will be flights between l.a. and new york city. as you look at shares of american, they have 24 of these maxs and they will feather them into the schedule in the first quarter. and pofor boeing this is good news they have been parked out in the satelli the seattle area they can slowly ramp up

delivery for american, more of these flights leading up to december 29th the rest of them are with american employees they are hoping that eventually people will say it's all right and it fades from the memory >> in terms of feathering in, is that because there needs to be a retraining of these pilots >> right i talked to one pilot today who said i am scheduled to go in december 12. that's what it is right now. you have to get the pilots in for their certification so they are up to speed. i think the pilot training it depends how they want to handle it. i think it might be 6 or 7 hours or something less than that. it takes a little bit of time. you just can't have thousands go into the system at one time.

they are working through it. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau in chicago good for boeing, tim >> good for boeing and see what united and southwest who are some of the more important customers to getting the moth balled planes pulled out of the desert this is a storyline i'm glad has gotten better for the company. it has been a tragic tale for a couple of years. it is not really about the max, but about the down volume on passenger jets i flew delta yesterday the airports i thought were well choreographed and clean. i think there is more confidence comingback obviously people need to be very safe and careful how they

travel, but i think the passenger demand side of this is what this trade is about boeing will be back to cash flow positive by the end of 2021. it is not a balance sheet issue. it is a demand issue and i think that's why the stock continues to inch higher as demand inches higher >> do you agree with that, guy >> this is what tim outlined on his power pitch when the stock was in the mid 180s. now we are in the 220. i think it topped at 230 so right in the cross hairs. here we are at $41 if you are playing the home game, it is a logical time to pull money off the table the airlines bottomed out in may, not march so take money off the table in

my opinion why options traders are betting it will experience more ahead.

we have a developing story out of washington, d.c the house passed legislation threatening a trading ban on chinese companies from u.s. exchanges. the president is expected to sign it. they have three years to comply. if they are delisted, they don't trade. they are gone which makes it more difficult for investors will this be an overhang >> i think it's important legislation. i think it's good news for investors. it is get real time for a lot of the chinese mega caps. it can be a headwind

having said all of that, i do think the companies that are the top market cap in china, at least in the tech space are names that for the most part can meet this demanding. there are a handful of some of the $50 billion up companies running into this. it is more what china is doing to these companies yes, i'm concerned, but i think this is good news for investors. >> dan, what is your take on this >> i agree 100%. it is a long time coming especially when you think the market caps here and the funds they are held in, i think this is to protect the u.s. investor. to tim's point, it seems like the chinese are focused on these companies too. so to have it formalized to protect our investors, it makes

sense. >> we booked you to do a fast pitch on alibaba, but we are going to go straight to that because we have this news and i wonder if that changes your view of this stock? >> i am all for protecting the investor alibaba is monitored by hong kong so we don't worry in this instance >> what do you like about alibaba, especially with it being delayed a year or a year plus, that seems to be a big cloud. >> it is also a buying opportunity. alibaba is a great business and then you want it at a reasonable price. growth for me it's to find the next level of e-commerce. alibaba is a combination of

amazon and ebay, power pay, google i think the ipo news was overdone i can go into that i also think alibaba is cheap because there is news there will be monopolistic. that is an opportunity in china. we have seen it in education the third reason is we had vaccine news last month and that has caused a rotation out of tech and into value. i think thatis more of a trade than a trend covid has accelerated and alibaba encompasses so many businesses that is a once in a generation tail wind so why the market is debating

who is winning, the car or the horse, ifeel that alibaba is not a one-trick pony >> thanks for coming on, barbara ann. i agree with every word you say. what do you think it's worth >> i have a $325 valuation for the core basis and $25 for the net cash on the balance sheet. that is 30% upside from here i don't care about the alibaba ipo because you are getting it for free at this point looking at a company that has extraordinary quality of assets and its revenue is growing 30% next year and earnings are 20% and you are paying 36 times for it >> we will leave it there. thanks for coming on to fast

we hope to see you fast. barbara and bernard of wincrest capital. >> there are so many questions especially when it comes to capital requirements. >> that was a great pitch for not a power pitch. also a great song by beach boys. i think it is how people look at alibaba. i think you can layer in more of a discount rate if you are doing more of a dcf or earnings based valuation. you may get more upside. but as she talked about the growth of 30 times on the top line and possibly -- i think you are even higher than that frankly. 26 or 28 times i have it a little higher. i think this is one of the great

investments people should have in their portfolio i think this is one of the next trillion dollar companies. >> so as mentioned, this would have been a fast pitch and at this time of the game we would normally be voting if this were still a fast pitch, how would you vote >> can you read this >> i fought for my meals i don't know what that means, but i am sure you will tell me >> baba -- i knew they were going to pull that song. go back to july when they made a high of 260. and then sold off. the 320 is where we were on

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in our logistics business, we are squarely in the mid fl this massive e-commerce boom we have the largest outsource fulfillment in the country we are diverse, all of the hottest parts of supply chain powered by this e-con boom we are in the middle of that >> that was the ceo of xpo speaking with jim cramer moments ago. you can watch the full interview at the top of the hour on ""mad money"." coming up, spotify up, what is behind this massive move next off my student loan debt.

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i could have ever made [what's this?] oh, are we kicking karly out? we live with at&t. it was a lapse in judgment. at&t, we called this house meeting because you advertise gig-speed internet, but we can't sign up for that here. yeah, but i'm just like warming up to those speeds. you've lived here two years. the personal attacks aren't helping, karly. don't you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something?

[ muffled scream ] stop living with at&t. xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes. welcome back to "fast money. spotify moved to an all time high bad bunny beat out drake

i know that's disappointing who is a drake fan >> it's shocking it's technical when you think about the prior highs of 300 for investors or spotify users who are concerned about the content of the joe rogen experience, i think the company is comfortable with the acquisition as they gained in market cap showing that it's finally going to them. to me it's a win-win all of the way around >> you have a spot fight list you puree if i could use that loose lie because it is a list of songs you like. >> i have 700 songs i like >> that's useless. >> not useless i am more partial to the jimmy hendrix experience

i do like drake. i liked his coffee cake and ring dings. i wish he kwould come back with them >> let's get this from mike >> we saw ten times volume for spotify. buyers of the calls are making the best that spot fiez couify consider the stock to run higher i would point out with the stock up as much as it has been and also that technical move that dan was just talking about, that it is likely, in my view, that some of this call buying might be stock replacement, people who have benefited from the big rally and deciding to take their

big position in the form of cal calls. >> we got "the wall street journal" news that they were locking at wondering which was the producer of podcast. >> i can't believe where this is training great deal with michelle obama, rogen. i feel dumb because i love the product but just couldn't get behind the product where did they start the listing, 125 i guess that would make it a 200 points >> don't miss options action on friday at 5:30 p.m and speaking of spotify, we will have evolve live stream. register to join us. up next, final trade turn on my tv and boom,

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welcome back to "fast money. you are looking live at rockefeller plaza. we are just a few hours away

from tree lighting no spectators due to the pandemic, but you can catch it live at 8:00 p.m. eastern time let's go around the horn >> slb is up believe it or not there is cash flow there and they run long and stay long. >> karen has a special guest >> i do. i wasn't a dog person until this guy. we like alibaba. i agree with everything baba ann said >> go to the dog >> so down 8% on the buy of slack. i like the buys for salesforce it has filled in the august earnings gap i like it between now and about

200 bucks. >> the dog has been chewing on a piglet behind her for the entire hour and we did not hear a peep. >> i am here to help you make money. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to cramer america. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate you and teac you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet @jim