points, nasdaq up about -- not off, up about 8 points, nasdaq up 10 points hasn't changed that much, really, given the jobs number. melissa, thank you for starting the week with us and ending the week with us. >> pleasure. >> ending on a nice note appreciate it, joe we'll be seeing you on monday. make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jame cramer and david faber november jobs a disappointment, more than half of expectations and the fifth month of slowing gains. futures steady amid continued optimism over vaccine and potential stimulus deal. our road map begins with job growth slowing sharply we're going to get the first white house reaction with larry kudlow later on this hour. >> plus, vaccine questions, while showing promising results,

pfizer's chairman admits that they're not sure if someone can transmit the virus after vaccination. and call it a box office reset, warner bros. will release films simultaneously in theaters and streaming platform hbo max it is a seismic change, carl, in the economics for those related to the film business and we'll certainly be willing to and happy to take a closer look and discuss it. >> yeah. fascinating change in the economics there. but, guys, jobs numbers, the story of the morning, jim, not just the number itself and the trend it outline, but the degree to which it is going to color the debate on capitol hill today and maybe next week. >> i think it is enough ammo to say, look, we have to do something, there is some areas of the economy that just are -- cannot be sustained. don't forget, these numbers are ahead of what will be a gigantic eviction notice that more than -- maybe more than 13 million people get in january.

i think this number is just enough to be able to say, let's compromise it is not so horrible as to say the economy is falling apart i know the numbers are a disappointment to some, you look at the actual breakdown, david, a lot of the disappointment is so-called hiring by the federal government, which is -- it is down but retail what did we expect this is the amazon -- we're getting amazon and i was surprised that there weren't a gigantic decline in the number of retailers that are laying off people that aren't creating jobs. they actually -- wasn't bad. >> maybe because amazon is adding -- i can't even -- 2800 a day, some insane number. >> it is a transfer. >> and so in that -- i assume it is counted broadly speaking toward retail. there is no way around the fact, you can't -- you're not going to ma make up 10 million lost jobs it is going to be a very long

time >> it is secular we're going to hear from mary dillon at ulta about how much better the e-commerce customer is well, what does that say how many people do you need at your stores if your e-commerce effort is so strong? we had docusign earlier this morning. how many people do you need involved in real estate transaction if you're doing docusign. >> your point is, i guess, jim, quickly that the acceleration in the digitization of the economy is going to result in fewer jobs regardless of how much stimulus you tri y to throw at it >> just has to happen. that's one of the key lessons of the pandemic is that we figured how to do far more with far less that's not going to change turned out to be lucrative the gross margins are going up for other businesses a lot of it is digitization. layoffs, digitization. >> yeah, jim

there is no stimulus package for wholesale change in the way software alters work flow. though, i don't know, some would argue there is and that's called -- that's called universal basic income which is a story for another day, but i guess the more immediate question is, as tom friedman is, does mcconnell err on the side of generosity and when he says a compromise is within reach, does he mean $908 billion compromise or the compromise that he had already put to the senate floor? >> it has to be more, just given the fact that january is going to be pretty bleak, both for the -- the charts of what is happening in the country are just unbelievable. but also because of the eviction issue. i think that what we're going to have to do is have the tideover. i know there is an issue about what pfizer was saying, and how pfizer wasn't really realizing, but there are a lot of people, there is "a new york times"

article that allows you to figure out where you are in the pecking order, it is much further out for most people to get the vaccine than i think they thought even three or four weeks ago. and, david, you know -- >> do you know -- >> i'm sorry, carl >> jim, i was going to say, i did that on the times website and i'm behind, like, 260 million americans. where are you in line? >> i'm in the -- i'm under 100 million. but it is -- when you do that, i didn't know -- everybody i know did that and the -- i think the endgame was no one gets the vaccine within any time that you may feed like you may make it. david, where did you come out? >> i didn't try it i didn't try it. i didn't i'm going to assume i'm somewhere between you and carl >> yeah. i got to tell you, there is a big gulf and, carl, we saw the pfizer, i actually on the show believed there was going to be an upside surprise to what pfizer could do in part because i think pfizer

is sucha great company johnson & johnson, i just got admitted to the trial yesterday, for j&j, but there are lots of different restrictions that make it so, you know what, i would rather -- the chance of getting the placebo may set you back in terms of -- >> maybe, maybe not. i was with friends last night in the j&j trial. it is 50/50 if you're getting the placebo. a lot of people in it, they want to get a headache or something, like, yes, i got the actual potential vaccine, they kind of know if there is any side effects. but they have to follow them for two years. they follow them for a long period of time but it is a way to potentially get a vaccine and maybe effective before anybody else if you're in the trill. >> you can't get the j&j you're not allowed. >> they are saying that once they may -- if they find it effective like in pfizer, they'll open it up and i think fauci recommended this and give the vaccine to those who got the

placebo. >> i got to tell you, in my twitter feed, i have more people that laugh at me that want the vaccine. no, i want to really get sk and get it over with do they know anyone? i know so many healthy people that got sick and they haven't made the comeback that a lot of people think this isn't the regular flu, people. >> no. tom farley this morning on "squawk" talking about 15 days with 103 degree fever, said it felt look a sledgehammer taken to his back. it is serious. but, jim, and david, to your larger pont about vaccine optimism, we did get that comment from moderna yesterday, saying that durable antibodies maybe after 119 days, that's pretty positive data and then, of course, the president did talk to lester holt last night on "dateline nbc", listen to that >> for most vaccines, you will see adverse events or safety issues arise within the first five, six weeks after

vaccination, so two months allows you to be sure as you can be and the real threat to life and health that covid faces far outweighs any remaining very small risk we think that over the coming year we would see any concerns arise. >> we don't know how long the vaccines will protect us, when we will need a follow-up. >> certainly when we're seeing efficacy 94, 95%, there is great reasons for hope that these vaccines are very effective and beat back the virus. there is a chance that a year from now, three years from now, we'll see that people need a booster. not what we see with other vaccines >> and then what about the question now of even though i had the protection, am i still able to transmit it to other people >> i think this is something that needs to be examined. we are not certain about that right now with what we know. >> one of the big lingering questions about transmission as opposed to infection.

>> i'm not -- i think that all these are -- i'm not saying they're faux arguments, i think what is going to happen is we're -- a lot of people get the vaccine, and a huge number of people get sick between 30 and 50% of the country is going to get sick and that is going to be the end of the pandemic. the combination of the people who have this vaccine and the people who got sick. this is not made up numbers, many doctors say, listen, it is coming, you're going to get it, it is a footrace, but in the end, this thing ends with 50% of people who got sick and the many people got the vaccine it is a suboptimal way. >> you say that number, we're well below that, you're talking about people who are not diagnosed, not tested, but had it at some point >> well -- >> get to that number, you're talking about 100 million people. >> you had dr. gottlieb, he's a hitter. >> yeah, i know that listen, they are ready, 219,000

cases, on december 3rd, that was a record, i believe. >> they're -- >> and unfortunately 2800 deaths >> it is pretty rapid. you know that it is making inroads -- look, i think all of us now know, at this very moment, that the thanksgiving spread at wildfire, all of us know many people who got it. i think all of us are just hoping and praying that we're not the next people. but the numbers are -- this thing will be solved by the worst possible way which is herd immontgome immunity, plus vaccine >> what does it mean for the market we're not seeing much of an impact in equities we had been poised to go up, we still are, to go higher at the open and we still are >> the open trade, and technology, the oil stocks, transportation, the food stocks, the cyclical stocks, the bank

stocks are all doing well. that's kind of it. >> that's a recipe for what? >> spacs >> don't forget spacs. >> carl, norwegian cruise, frank del rio, look, you can't sail for two months and the stock has a 10% move you can't make this up younger people, carl, are so hopeful that they -- they buy shares in the "titanic." >> let's not make that comparison but, jim, i think we all know where you're going with that crude oil close to 46 on this opec plus supply compromise. a lot of calls to get to this morning. we got some yun gradowngrades o boeing docusign, netflix, crowd strike, we'll get to that. and we'll talk to larry kudlow about the jobs number when "squawk on the street" continues.

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[what's this?] oh, are we kicking karly out? we live with at&t. it was a lapse in judgment. at&t, we called this house meeting

because you advertise gig-speed internet, but we can't sign up for that here. yeah, but i'm just like warming up to those speeds. you've lived here two years. the personal attacks aren't helping, karly. don't you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something? [ muffled scream ] stop living with at&t. xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes. at&t warner bros. will release its 2021 films theatrically and on hbo max simultaneously this was announced late yesterday the ceo defending the move telling cnbc, quote, everyone

should take a breather, let's let the next six, eight, ten months play out and check back certainly this is pandemic related, that's why we are doing it we haven't spent one brain cell on what the world looks like in 2022 then they want to, there is potentially seismic reaction to that this morning as we said at the top of the show. the first order of business is what does it mean for at&t hbo max potentially going to be a positive since that launch, you know, more converting more people from hbo to hcbo max, ths would seem to help that. the economics of the movie business are pretty significant. they did -- they're number two at the box office. they do, what, about 2.4 billion in generated from the film division, is what i've got here. that's significant numbers that they're talking about, potentially taking down dramatically for products that they basically produce and now we're going to be putting on hbo

max, you can still watch them in the movie theater, but unclear how many people are going to be willing to do that. >> yeah, had to take note of adam aaron's quote, warner media intends to sacrifice a considerable portion of its profitability. we'll do all in our power to ensure that warner doesn't do so at our expense i'll tell you, jim, it is -- has people saying that hbom is probl is the best value in streaming for the next year. >> i remember there was a critical meeting that david faber and i had with a man who was a great american, jeff bewkes we talked about the idea that if you break it up, that you could have time warner do a netfl netflix-like situation and be worth a tremendous amount, tremendous of course, he laughed at me and made fun of me and i enjoyed that because he's a great american. but what was interesting is this where it is going? >> that's the question he's saying, this is pandemic

related. saw his quote. because, of course, people are still going to be potentially reluctant to go to the movie theaters for some period of time, perhaps for another year, they want to give people the opportunity to watch at home i go to move et nathanson out with a report, this gives you some sense of what we're talking about when it comes to at&t. also, there is economics for the stars, for the writers, a lot of them come in that residual basket that comes from the windowing process. it is not the money that they get from it being in the theaters, it is money from the hbo or the other paid services and then money from this and the question there becomes do they get paid more up front as for at&t, here's what moffett nathanson had to say, warner media is the first to truly blow in the model by skipping an exclusive theatrical window altogether and the pay one window, the hbo max release no longer generates cash. instead shifts content between warner media segments without some major change in accounting

principles at the company's film division, we expect the 2.4 billion generated in 19 to take a big hit. that will impact the entire pnl of warner media. there is no doubt one would expect this will help hbo max add some subscribers, but what the cost continues to be the question >> it is -- we were kicking it around with bewkes, it is pretty clear the economics were not great to do it it was more demand, but, yes, unless you do something like that, and raise money -- >> maybe you get a lot of people now and then keep them, you know if you can keep the churn down and a year from now you sort of mix and match. some things will go with no window, others won't. >> is it desperation by at&t, which has a terrible stock and people worry about the dividend? >> i wouldn't call it that i think it does show how focused they are on making hbo max a successful product

hbo has been incredibly successful we're talking direct to consumer in hbo max and making sure it has a lot of road ahead of it. don't forget they continue to sort of engage in this process that i reported on of selling part of directv, the number there is going to be very low in terms of what they bought it for, what it is going to value the company at when they sell a stake to somebody else, it they do, if they choose to move ahead with that. there is a lot of different levels here. >> you want to sell -- to adam aaron? what do you do >> i don't know what you do. what do you do >> a gigantic offering and stay in business. >> i guess that's what you have to do. >> young people love that. look at how many offerings carnival has done, american air, they love that, they love offerings. it is like burnt offerings, here, please. >> dilute me, please. >> dilute me. >> they think dilutian is good.

>> they're taking the long view. >> yeah. >> we will take a break. when we come back, larry kudlow of the national economic council talking about the jobs number, stimulus, the fed, the transition, and a lot more don't go away. sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... boss: doug? sorry about that. umm...what...its...um... boss: you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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then currency came along. they made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. that's why it's time for digital currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. go digital. go grayscale. jim told me he has a surprise for the mad dash. we're going to talk starbucks. i don't know what the surprise is kudlow and cramer. >> it is a kudlow and crame er hat. this is a collector's item i may put it on ebay maybe with we get some -- raise

some money for the people who are in trouble and can't get food yes, this is -- in honor of the fact we're about to interview larry kudlow and this is a genuine unbelievable found in my father's closet when we were cleaning up, kudlow and cramer hat. >> there you go. >> anyway, in honor. starbucks next week. >> let's do it. >> next week, the biennial meeting. i think people will raise numbers, raise numbers, raise numbers, same store sales going up a lot the only thing that is bad is that andrew get the interview and i don't. i love andrew. >> k.j. is going on stock. >> think about this -- >> you and i can be united sometimes in our opposition. >> yes, we are they hired kevin johnson to be the ceo. it turned out you needed fkj -- turns out you needed a guy who understood java script more than java beans he's going to solve it i think one thing you'll love

about it is they're going to be -- look at that chart i know you love charts that's a reverse held aad and shoulders. >> is that a reverse head and shoulders? i don't know maybe. >> you dressed in the dark today. >> i did dress in -- >> i had two suits on. >> two separate suits? >> to separate suits on. i dressed in the dark. >> well done i didn't notice, but thank you for pointing that out. >> these two suits -- >> worth way more than i make in a year. >> this is an event people will get ahead of already web bush gets ahead of it. look out, david. that biennial meeting, i went to -- i've been to almost all of the biennial meetings, they are -- their rallies like you wouldn't believe fabulous to behold rallies they highlight baristas who have worked there for a very long time, and they make you feel like, you know what, this

company treats its people well. >> keep an eye on starbucks. interesting meetings next week >> next week >> andrew ross sorkin. >> on the 10th, kevin johnson will join the "squawk" crew for one time only, i would assume. only interview on that show. we're back right after this. at cdw we get you want happy, productive employees.

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ulta is one that people will grapple with this morning, jim revenue was amiss, but wells and piper do up their target stock still down premarket. >> yeah. i liked quarter very much. remember, these guys are up against an incredible situation. they got salons in the back, do you want to go get your hair done right now they got lots of people doing their ecom, which is great they had to decide not to go into canada, they took a charge on that. but i think mary dillon is doing a fabulous job and i want to own that stock to sell it right now is to think that they're not a survivor.

not only are they a survivor, they're moving to target, it is brilliant. we celebrated sephora's move to kohl's this move to target is just a game changer for them. they also have brands by the way that they never used to be able to have. top flight brands, great 31 million person affinity group, which gives you great values i just think this is a winner. and let's short-termers take profit good luck. >> yeah. i know you like that story and you were so positive on kohl's, sephora earlier in the week, we never mentioned that deutsche after your comments upped it to buy saying sephora could add a billion dollars in incremental sales. beauty will get really interesting. >> jcpenney, the thing that kept jcpenney thriving was sephora. it is a remarkable brand and it was a great thing for kohl's to snare. i prefer target than kohl's. but these are game changers and cosmetics are back it is skin care. and a lot of that is mackskny ad

maskny matters. >> that's acne from the mask >> this one has created more maskny than i had since i was 13 >> be thankful good it is good have skin that is not dried out. >> thank you >> won't get wrinkles. >> david, do you ever remember what -- they're back they're bigger than ever. >> oh, my god, carl, tell us about the opening bell so i don't have to more about various skin problems. >> right people enjoying their breakfast. there is the opening bell. got to look at energy, jim we mentioned it a few minutes ago. sector will open up 2% here. is this about reopening reflation or more about opec what opec plus said? >> i think it is about president biden too, president-elect biden. because he's going to make it much more difficult to drill, which means there will be less oil coming from us, the amount

that opec plus did was 500,000, didn't change the game there are more people driving. but i do think that the idea that what president trump wanted to do, including lasting legacy, wanting to drill in anwar, that's not something i care to do, but i know the president said drill everywhere guy, but if you drill less, we produce less, oil goes up. and so president-elect biden is doing much more for the stocks of the oil company than president trump ever could i reiterate that chevron with the great dividend and pioneer with the great growth are the two ways to play it, if you believe this oil is going to go to the 50s >> i mentioned the dollar earlier this week. and here i am again, mentioning it twice in a week there is a reason for it it -- there continues to be a lot of conversation about it and the weakness that we have seen, jim, we talk about currency translations for companies, when that can reverse, oftentimes investors could care less about

constant currency, when it is going against the companies, but then when it can be a tailwind, it can be beneficial right now, of course if you're selling, it is not helping. >> j&j, watch that one not just the vaccine, the dollar all the oil companies -- oil priced in dollars, it is great for them i think you'll see the first quarter a lot of the big exporters will tell you it is terrific and since we're not allowed to go anywhere, you don't feel the downside. >> right we're not feeling the penalization of it of going abroad and finding -- >> you listen to the -- the best beneficiary, other than j&j, apple. apple lost billions to currency. billions that's going to reverse and it is going to be another reason to own the stock of apple even though the analysts all seem to be lukewarm other than morgan stanley about 5g yes, 5g is not perfect yet give it a break. carl, we'll all be using 5g. you'll get to take the -- i love my phone

i love it. look at that huh. one day my wife will know i have a show, guys give me a call give me a call 9:00 david, i got a show, carl. >> i tried to tell her >> i'll write i'm jammed right now. >> not interested. >> this way -- >> i won't get hurt. >> i'll talk a little bit about walgreens. >> the option -- unusual option activity are you najarianing me >> we can take a look at one week, maybe, that will help even show what it did yesterday it was up a lot. 17 million shares. there it is. look at that move. unusual options activity now, about a year ago there was an effort, never able to determine exactly how serious it was, in terps of potentialms of go private transaction

the idea was perhaps roll into some deal. the -- can you make it work? credit suisse comes out with some math worth sharing. i want to share a couple of potential insights with people as well on this whole idea and, again, i got nothing that indicates anything going on, i don't know in our scenario says credit suisse we arrive at $55 take-out price per share, premium to the intraday of at least today or yesterday. 56 billion, one of the largest if not the single largest of all time long-term revenue growth, ebitda margins improving. i think we have this we put it up they assume 8.25 valuation on pro forma. next 12 months ebitda, so that would increase that. there you go thank you, guys. and i'm already on the second one here 5.5 leverage on pro forma on new

co which gets you to 18% irr you could potentially do it. it generates a good amount of cash you need to raise a lot of debt, 37 billion of total debt compared to 14 billion today and you take leverage as i said or they set up to 5.5 times. one key question here is i think tom cena, i don't think he's looking to roll in as much as roll out. >> i can't think of a worse idea you got the death star coming for him, the back of the store will be amazon back of the store could be obliterated. front of the store right now, it is possible that it will benefit from the vaccine because you got to get -- you got to go twice. i would tell people that if they want to do this, my travel trust owns cvs, not a great balance sheet, but getting better. but that stock was up every bit as much as walgreens and i didn't check about the unusual option activity. look at cvs. that sells at -- that sells at ten times -- nine times

earnings you want a cheap stock that benefits and that i think has got a little bit better insulation from the death star, cvs. >> the death star for everybody who doesn't know is amazon, reference made a couple of years ago in my yearly interview with john malone. >> one of the best interviews i ever heard and remarkable for the clarity of recognizing when they train their rays on your company, it is very hard. >> abandon ship. >> abandon ship. >> like they had to, did they in "star wars"? yeah abandon ship. >> it is like when they put an -- star trek -- movie two, the wrath of con, they put ear wigs in there. >> yeah. >> check off, ear wig. >> is that the one with the wha whales >> save the whales >> wrath of con -- >> i watched them all. i don't remember >> two is the best two is the best. the only sector that is not doing quite as well as energy are the banks.

but it is pretty close up a percent here as the 210 curve is the highest, widest since february of '18. i wonder if that's about -- i see you tweeted the lockdown trade is getting hurt. how much of that is related to the president-elect saying he's not looking for major shutdowns, if anything about asking americans to wear a mask for 100 days. >> i think it is a mask, i think it is stimulus you got things like ring central, crowd strike, i got them on tonight, that stock shouldn't be -- has been doing incredibly well. okta is the tale of the tape that's identity. roku is down, jpmorgan is the star of the show the star of the show >> morgan stanley is the star of the show up 26%. >> i like gorman you know i like gorman. >> i know you do >> carl? >> guys, let's bring in larry kudlow, director of the national economic council larry, good morning. happy friday good to have you back. >> thank you hello, folks, how are you? >> we're doing well.

taking stock of the number today. charles evans of the chicago fed is on the tape now, it is a little disappointing would you agree? >> i suppose so. it came a little bit under consensus. not a lot, but a little. i like the 6.7% unemployment rate and i would note, by the way, the biggest declines in unemployment were minority groups, the toughest nut to crack, but they're really coming down, african-americans, hispanics, asians and also not a minority group, because they're a majority, but women unemployment came down those are the real highlights of this thing and as you know, 6.7% cbo and others didn't expect it single digits until well into 2021. so it is good report and i just make one other editorial comment before we get into it, back and forth, you know, you can't judge the entire

economy by a number that comes in slightly below consensus. you have real, real strength in the pmis and manufacturing, and construction and new purchase mortgage applications, automobiles are very strong. capital goods are coming on very, very strong. and i think the q4, atlanta fed is 11% that's their number. i don't know if we'll get there. i'm saying that the economy is still pretty strong, even with various covid risks out there. >> yeah. so, larry, you're on that point, your long-standing view that a sharp recovery, v-shaped recovery, not predicated on further stimulus, you still hold that view and what does that say about the debate that is going on right now >> i do hold that view i think it is a strong v-shaped recovery i also said any number of times in recent months that a targeted

assistance plan from congress would be very helpful. and i know that the parameters seem to be closing a bit i know that senator mitch mcconnell is talking to house speaker pelosi, senator mcconnell is a little more optimistic than he has been, no deal yet the numbers are getting closer there are some policy differences. but, carl, my take, really, i don't know, late summer, autumn for this discussion, is we should provide some additional payouts for unemployment assistance i think that's very important. secondly i think we should pay out additional extensions for the successful small business ppp program. i think you got to put some money into the airlines, and i think you got also to put some money into the restaurants, small restaurants, small business, so that may be covered

by ppe, maybe have tax deductions and anything to do with covid and schools we got to keep the schools open. so we always have been willing to spend money, president trump, i spoke to him yesterday about this, he's happy to provide assistance in the key targeted areas. and we want to keep the economy open . we should talk about the covid story, but we must keep the economy open, we must keep the businesses open, we must keep the schools open, this is very doable, and, you know, i still think we're in pretty good shape, despite the fact that we came in at a wee bit below consensus on jobs today. >> larry, first, i want to congratulate you and thank you for your service for our country. you've done an admirable job, you're in there working hard every single day and we appreciate everything you do >> thank you, jimmy. appreciate it. really do. >> when i listen to the things that you're talking about, the targets, you clicked on every single box it is everything that needs to be -- the business insurance,

interrupted business, not the people's fault, successful businesses that are going under, it will be really hard, correct, if we let them go, for them to restart. it would be far better and cheaper just to keep them afloat somehow until everyone gets the vaccine, true? >> yeah, i really agree with that point of view you know, there say way to -- you go to unspend funds, jimmy the ppp program left on the table, i believe something like $135 billion the treasury department has basically in its exchange stabilization fund, which was used as the equity for the fed

facilities, even though some of that may expire at the end of the year, secretary mnuchin has said due to the law, nonetheless, you've got a $450 billion nut there, that was in the c.a.r.e.s. act, that is available. so if you just in ballpark numbers take your 450 and your 135 as another 25 billion that was used by the fed to help the ppp, which is no longer necessary, that's $600 billion that could be repurposed if you will, reappropriated i wanted this, i argued this for many, many months, just take that money and get on the horse, plus up on unemployment assistance by 300 bucks a week, extend it out. i don't know i don't want to negotiate here, but at least several months, maybe until the end of the first quarter, and, of course, help is on the way the vaccines are coming.

the high priorities will be a couple of weeks, you know, the front line workers, for example, people with pre-existing conditions, old guys like me, you are going to get about 20 million by the end of december, another 20 million in february, and depending how the two leading vk seens, man a third coming on stream you look at 100 million or so by the end of march according to vice president pence's task force, which i sit on and met earlier this week. help is on the way and provide assistance bridge, and let's do it in a targeted way and we'll be okay because the fundamentals of the economy look pretty good you see the behavior of the stock market you see the earnings are being raised higher. nobody knows that stuff better than jim cramer. that's for sure. and it is just, you know, i wish we had a little more private sector jobs today, but it will come on stream, the continuing

claims are falling by enormous amounts. i'm kind of still optimistic, but i would like to see congress act. >> larry, i want to -- it was a privilege to work with you on "kudlow & cramer," i agree we have to worry about the big businesses like the airlines we're looking at this stock market this market and the bond market will actually let the private secreta sector pay for the growth of the airlines do you think we should just be small, medium size business and let the stock market and bond markets take care of the larger companys >> well, that's an interesting policy point, jimmy. that is an interesting policy point. maybe so maybe so you noknow a whole lot more abo the airline companies than i do. i do talk to them on a regular basis, but you know more about the income and balance sheets. i don't know that i can answer that what i do know is speaker pelosi's team is, now embracing

a lower number i don't think that's the total issue because it is the policies inside the number. but they have come down. senator mcconnell, who is obviously a key player, he has said publicly that compromises are possible, he's softened his language quite a bit secretary mnuchin, rest of the white house, we're all talking to the majority leader's office, so talk is good, and we may be moving forward, i can't promise anything this morning. just saying that the targeted approach is, i think, the best we >> larry, always good to have you on jobs friday we'll talk to you soon >> thanks, carl. appreciate it very much. thanks, jimmy. >> thanks so much. >> larry kudlow. dow is up 120. close to the highs of the week when we come back, ulta beauty ceo mary dillon on later today

on the company's quarterly results and the outlook. we'll talk about the pandemic and where the holiday season fits in to the business. as we go to break, jobs friday, look at the movement in treasuries factory orders due out at the top of the hour. here's how the ten-year reacted to the jobs report that spike in the yield right after the numbers were released. and we'll finish with a look at nte dollar, which david meioned, down for the week, and close to some multimonth lows we're back in a moment

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shares of ulta experiencing mild profit taking joining us is a true treat is the ulta beauty ceo mary dillon. mary, i always love it when you come on. thank you so much. >> thank you so happy to be here. >> so, i want to step aside from what the analysts are saying in the spreadsheets and telling them, how are you able to grow a business for makeup for a cosmetics skin care in a pandemic where people are afraid to do anything touching their face, their mouth, their eyes? >> well, i think this experience, let me step back and

say, first of all, i'm so proud about the ulta beauty associates and what we have done to work hard to meet guest needs during this time and every dimension. i think this shows that beauty is a very important category for people at any time, especially during this difficult time that we have been through because the categories that you see really excelling are all about self-care. so skin care, people have more time at home to experiment with new rituals, we're seeing that in our data, trying new products, masks, serums, ways to -- you might not have as much time in your normal life to do experimentation with self-care, fragrance, bath, those categories, all positive comps versus a year go, which is incredible hair care, do it yourself hair care, color or learning how to style your hair with tools makeup as a category is more under pressure it is a very important category. there is some sets of makeup that are doing well. everything we call above the mask so whether it is eyebrows, eyelashes, you know, things that

could express yourself like that i'm convinced that once we get through this difficult time, and we will, right, at some point in the future, then the full face of makeup and lipstick will be really hot. >> skin care, we all need it it is the hottest area because of the zoom problem. one thing i love, there is no newness. this time you're talking about newness. you're saying it is exclusive, unique, ulta beauty programs, you're doing the highest end has the business caught up with you asked it to do >> well, newness is always important in beauty. i think we talked about this before, in makeup, there was a little bit of maybe a lull in innovation, but we're seeing innovation across every single category as i said, whether it is skin care, whether it is hair care, fragrance and bath, but we

launched new products that have done quite well. so i would say that, you know, innovation around eyes, and as we go forward innovation around lip will continue to be very important. makeup is a very important part of our category. so our guests love newness, they love innovation, and i'm proud about the fact that we're bringing it to them as we start this holiday season in a way that really taps into the need for nostalgia, togetherness, the need for joy, and i think it will be more important than ever this holiday and ulta beauty i believe is set up well to help guests with their gift giving. >> you have extraordinary active members. in your ultimate awards program, you save a lot of money. one thing i think is really interesting is you mine the data and customers, three times more valuable to you than others. we have a lot of companies that are -- the salesforces of the world, that mine data, are you hiring those companies to try to figure out who is worth spending money on i had snowflake on last night.

over and over again i hear if you mine the data, you get the best customers is that what you're doing? >> every company is a tech company now, including a beauty company like ulta beauty we always had a foundation around consumer guest insight is what i would say whether it is qualitative or quantitative or more deep analytics, it is about understanding guests perspective and current and what are their interests and anticipating it before they do to be more effective an efficient so i'm proud about the fact that, you know, we have a couple of acquisitions we made the last couple of years around augmented reality and the -- our visual intelligence capability. so we have a team doing great work and it is about guest insights and guest satisfaction so you're meeting guest needs in a way that isn't about being promotional, but about serving up to them what they need and want >> one last question, i always think it is amazing that you find things that i am at out of

touch with, i love to learn about, you -- people like clean ingredients, cruelty free, vegan, sustainable packaging, this what they're asking for as well as asking about the fragrance or asking about the -- how good it does for skin care in. >> yeah, absolutely. we launched, it is really new, conscious beauty, it is a platform for brands that meet various conditions around whether it is cruelty free, vegan, sustainable packaging, and we're finding a lot -- we have a lot of brands that are participating, guests are very excited about it this notion of clean and also being specific to what a guest is looking looking for the same thing we're trying to make it easier for guests to find what they need and there is a lot of excitement in this area. >> mary dillon, congratulations, again, remarkable quarter, one of the toughest environments ever good to see you. thank you so much. >> thank you >> carl, back to you

>> all right, jim, let's wrap things up with you after a killer week on mad what do you got? >> z scaler these are the companies that protect you along with okta. i have to ask about what happened with pfizer, whether people are hacking these things. that's what these two gentlemen know better than anybody else in the country other than the people at paolo alt ylo alto nes something is going on. the hacking has to stop. and i think we'll find out from z scaler and crowd strike what is going on. >> amazing work all week long. >> thank you. >> every day, jim. >> you're too kind >> help us understand what is going on with good bookings. we'll see you tonight. "mad money" 6:00 p.m. with jim cramer when we come back, we'll talk to brian goldner as we get closer and closer to holiday and talk about retail, toy supply chain and more when "squawk on the street" comes back don't go away. things are a little different this school year it's different because i have to talk to a computer.

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i didn't know you were listening. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and kayla tausche. fresh record high despite a jobs

number that comes in below expectations a lot of disappointment being eased by continued hopes about vaccine delivery in the coming months and the hopes for a stimulus package being put together in the coming days, ahead of a potential vote next week and those constructive comments from leader mcconnell right now, factory orders with rick santelli. hey, rick. >> yes, hi, carl do note interest rates have been moving up since the number all right, october read on factory orders expected up .8% a bit better than that up a full 1% if we strip out transportation, it is still at 1%, but without transportation, that's exactly as we're expecting now let's switch gears to durable goods orders we replace october midmonth with october final. we're expecting 1.3, 1.3 is what we have under durable good orders and that was the midmonth read as well so this is a number as expected, and if we strip out transportation very similar to

factory orders, it is still up 1.3. now let's look at capital goods orders, nondefense ex-aircraft, a proxy for capital spending, business spending, very important, we're expecting the number up .7, it is up .8 with .7 in the rear view mirror, the midmop renth read is .8 and shipments, it is expanded to 2.4. all of these durable goods and factory orders a bit better than expected and rates, well, the november 10th high yield close 96 basis points for a tenth we're through that should we close above that like many bond traders, we'll be doing a whole lot more trading on the north side of 1%. kayla, back to you. >> you know, rick, a lot has happened since october, but it is another day to point to add to this larger mosaic of the economy. we are going to dive right into that thank you, rick. 245,000 jobs gained in november. the unemployment rate falling to

6.7% last hour carl asked national economic council director larry kudlow if the report was a disappointment and here's how kudlow responded to that >> came a little bit under consensus, not a lot, but a little i really like the 6.7% unemployment rate. and i would note by the way if you look under the hood of this thing, the biggest declines in unemployment were minority groups as you know, 6.7% cbo and others didn't expect it single digits until well into 2021 so it is good report and i just make one other editorial comment before we get into it, back and forth, you know, you can't judge the entire economy by a number that comes in slightly below consensus. you have real, real strength in the pmis and manufacturing and construction and new purchase mortgage applications, automobiles are very strong.

capital goods are coming on very, very strong. >> that is the official line from the trump administration from its penultimate jobs report joining us to discuss it, joe kelly and diane swonk. thank you for being here diane, i'll start with you, you heard what larry kudlow said, don't take this number as the totality of the economy. earlier this morning on the other side of the aisle, we heard jason furman say the numbers are going to get worse, go towards zero and then head into negative territory in december which side of that debate are you on >> i don't think there is any question we're going to see the numbers dip into the red in the month of december and actually as you look under the hood these numbers are pretty ugly, the unemployment rate fell because participation in the labor force fell yet again in november so those -- this false narrative to say this is an improving labor market for people of

color, i think that's a very wrong way to interpret these numbers, it is not had twhat the details reveals. i think it is important to look at the effects we saw this survey was taken before more restrictions were implemented, but as cases were surging, due to covid and the deceleration we have seen over the last three months is important to take into context because it really is a screeching halt in employment, our ability to generate employment at a time when we're still 9.8 million jobs in the hole, more than a million jobs that we lost back during the height of the '08, '09 recession. >> and, david, this slowdown is coming at a time when we normally see a ramp up in the economy, with increased travel, increased holiday spending how are these two forces going to dove tail and how disappointing do you think this holiday season is going to be in potentially overshadow other data points in the economy as well >> well, i think it is obviously going to be very disappointing

holiday season for traditional retail, i've seen that already over black friday. but i really think the right way to think about this is this isn't an economy that needs stimulus it needs support. because it is not so much tired as injured there are big sections of this economy, leisure and entertainment, restaurants, which just can't reopen in a pan democrat uck environmen pandemic environment labor force participation is down by 4 million people i went back and looked at all the recessions since world war ii, there isn't one where the labor force was down nine months into recession and down by 4 million people these people are really unemployed not showing up as unemployed in the employment rate, but they are unemployed because their businesses are shut down and they can't work. we need to support these people through the pandemic, deal with it aggressively so we can get this economy started again next spring i think it is completely wrong to say the economy is recovering, we just need a little more oomph, a little more confidence

we can't fix this economy until we fix the pandemic. >> diane, i was looking at some charts this morning, tweeted one out on median duration of unemployment, which shows hardly any recovery, really, getting close to numbers that we saw in the great recession, which sort of leads to what yell wanz sen s saying earlier, the long-term effects of unemployment create very nasty externalalities in society at large, and that's not reflected in a single jobs number >> exactly and i think that's important once we hit six months and we're now seeing over a third of the labor force unemployed that are counted as unemployed as david pointed out, they're not all counted, now account for our now long-term unemployed more than six months and at six months we hit a tipping point where not only do workers that get reemployed tend to get paid less, it starts to inflict pain on family structure, on the well-being of children, we know food insecurity is rising, donate to your food bank this

holiday season, it is an eternity until they even get something passed for people to get money in their -- enough money to pay for food for a week, this is really startling tent cities are starting to go up before the eviction moratoriums have already lapsed on december 31st all of these things are very important, i agree completely with david we really need this to help these wounds create inflicted by covid to not fester and that's what the aid is for it is not stimulus per se, but keeps us afloat and leaves us more of a foundation from which to rebuild upon on the other side of the crisis that's before we get into the educational impacts and lost education and the long-term health effects on 20 to 40-year-olds, the prime age of your labor force, that had mild cases of covid we don't know how long those are going to last. >> we hope they don't last long and that there isn't some sort of recurrence as you say david, we're watching closely

what is going on in congress right now, and the various negotiating. even if you were to get the higher number now, which is still less than a trillion, 900 billion or so, will that be enough in your opinion to do what it needs to do in terms of relief >> well, yes, i think it will get most of the way. we need more state and local government aid if you look at this morning's report, we lost 1.4 million state and local jobs since this crisis started and that is pretty much avoidable. we have got to put -- got to be honest about this, put more money into state and local governments from the state and federal level. that would help. apart from that, it really is about the pandemic i hope that the president-elect is able to bring the country together on a mask mandate and everybody really doing what they can to bring the pandemic down the sooner we get it dealt with and over with, the sooner the economy can get back to normal. >> and last night the president-elect said that this would just be a start, he would likely need another package once he takes office.

diane, considering there will be the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year before the vast majority of americans consider getting a vaccine, or have the access to a vaccine, what do you think is the prospect of a double dip recession at this point, if the underlying economy is truly the way that you depicted it earlier on in this conversation. >> i think there say very good probability we get one quarter that goes negative again that's not necessarily a double dip, but it really is a set beck at an incredibly high level of unemployed workers and low level of employment. so i think we really need to think about as the -- we unleash that pent-up demand, how long will it take and -- there is my dog, sorry about that. this is work from home, right? it is important for us to think about when we're going to need on the other side of those initial strong quarters coming out of this, what do we need to sustain the recovery, and that's a very different set of

prescriptions and i agree 100% with david to not unnecessarily leave state and local governments short, and cause the subpar employment recovery we saw from 2008 and 2009 let's learn from the mistakes and not repeat that one, but i also think we're going to need some catch-up on education and kids will have to go to school in the summer to make up for time lost and especially even out some of the gains we saw so we have a larger pie overall economic pie >> there is a lot of catch-up to do, and hopefully your dog does not set off the leaf blowers thanks for the conversation and response to the -- >> sorry. >> it is all good. diane swonk and david kelly, thank you. >> dogs need stimulus too as kayla once said. thanks, guys. we're going to talk more and more in the coming weeks about vaccine distribution in this country. meg tirrell has been doing some work on how that's playing out at the state level

hi, meg. >> hey, carl today is a key day in the planning for the initial vaccine distribution the states microplans are due to operation warp speed today to direct them where to send the initial doses of the pfizer vac seek if and when it gets cleared by the fda, which could happen perhaps within a week. they got that fda meeting next week on thursday and then the fda could decide anytime after that so the initial shipments are going to be enough for 3.2 million people, 6.4 million doses, by year end, operation warp speed says with pfizer and moderna's vaccines together there should be enough in december for 20 million people now, guys, the shipments couldn't come at a time when the country needs them more. if you look at the hospitalization trends in the country right now, they are increasing in 37 states week over week. these numbers, the dark yellows showing the worst increases we're seeing really on the coasts right now as the midwest is already hit so hard if you look at icu capacity, the

availability there is concerning as well. severely constrained or constrained in 19 states the dark yellow there with more than 85% of their beds full. the most concerning. so we are starting to hear from states what they are going to do with the initial shipments of vaccines and how many each state is going to get. these have been allocated on a population basis for these states new york saying its first shipment 170,000 doses, california will have roughly twice that given population sizes, small states like rhode island, 10,000 in their first shipment wisconsin will get about 50,000 doses and wisconsin's governor writing a letter to secretary alex azar yesterday pleading for more vaccines for his state, given that they have been hit so hard and saying that their mitigation efforts have been blunted there because they have been struck down or enjoyed and say given that, any outsized impact covid is having in their state, it is critical that wisconsin be prioritized

so we are starting to see governors lobbying for more vaccines and industry trying to prioritize their workers as essential. this is all the beginning of this process carl >> yeah, companies like ford buying their own freezers so they can manage to get their own employees taken care of, meg one question, it has been a week where the fda has been under fire on their approval timeline. we had the uk go first fauci had to walk back some comments can you remind viewers why -- what it is that is different between uk and u.s. regulators in terms of the way they look at actual data before they approve? >> yeah. so dr. faucis with was on thee it the "today" show, he had to walk back comments he was, like, no, no, so he had

to walk that back, but essentially what the fda is going to do, a few different things about our process, we have that meeting of outside advisers on december 10th. that will be all public we can listen to it all day and will be and i assure a lot of other folks will be too, they'll be releasing all of the data that those advisers will be looking at on tuesday of next week that will be public as well. the fda goes through and does its own analysis on the raw data submitted from the companies and so there has been some focus on the idea that regulators in the uk look at the analysis done by the company for them, where as the fda breaks apart the raw data and that can take longer. but dr. fauci saying that his uk colleagues do a good job that's good. >> yeah. next week is going to be big as well every week is big it seems right now. meg, thanks. meg tirrell, talking about vaccines. big show coming up, the ceo of hasbro will join us as we talk about holiday shopping trends, shipping capacity, the state of the consumer. and then, of course, a lot more on the jobs number today with

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physical store on black friday with christmas three weeks away, let's check in with hasbro's chairman and ceo brian goldner good to have you it has been a unique eight, nine months to say the least. and i'm curious on the subject

of toys, one would imagine many parents locked up with their kids probably exhausted a supply of toys or bought as many as they possibly could. is that in some ways as we head into the holidays going to mitigate how many toys people are going to want to buy for their youngsters >> we continued to see strong demand throughout the year, not only in the toy business, but across the games business, our preschool compound business, like play-doh, increasingly in our nerf business, it is about people wanting to make connections. we have done a lot of research to try to figure out just how people are consuming our games and toys andlaunching a whole new array of games and toys for the holidays strong demandthe holidays. not a hope on just one day like black friday, but rather through an entire season, giving people

the opportunity to buy online, as well as in store. >> so i'm curious you said you have done a lot of research. what then is that reflected in, in terms of the new products you're going to be bringing to market for the holiday season? >> what we have seen is that consumers want to increasingly play games together. and they love all kinds of new games, we brought a whole array of new games half a dozen monopoly new games. people want to play together, they love knowing the basic rules of the game. and they want to engage with their kids, they want to engage as adults. preschoolers together. so every category of game is really growing preschool games, family games, adult games, you play together as adults. everybody is looking for a way to make those connections. it is really sort of pure to our mantra of being an entertainment company. people consuming more

entertainment, gaming, people consuming more of our adult oriented games like dunkegeons n dragons. kids having some fun together with their friends and families. >> as the parent of a preschooler, i can confirm david's thesis, there is play-doh hidden in every corner of my house and then some. i am one of the lucky ones i am very well aware of that i'm wondering what you're seeing across the big box retailers, the families who might be shopping at walmart or at the grocery store and they have an impulse purchase where their child sees it and they decide to get them a treat certainly those types of spontaneous interactions aren't happening anymore. how does that impact your business >> we have seen across the industry interestingly, it is a great question, that actually average price points for the toy business have gone up.

so people are buying bigger ticket items, buying items they can find online, that they can survey online, they see videos online, so a lot of our skills and building content, commerce, are essential. people want those virtual shopping trips that they would have had in store. so price points are up sleeighty items are down, you're seeing people gravitate to the higher price points, more immersive toy and game experiences and we are seeing that across the board with brands like nerf and brands like you say like play-doh compound business, launching an array of new compounds people are buying into those categories and you're right, those impulse purchases may be down a bit, but what is up substantially is the amount of ecom we're seeing in our ability to connect experiences across brands and allow people to connect to the different way -- play experiences within those brands

is quite compelling. >> you've been on the past few weeks and tried to tell consumers, look, shipping capacity is going to be tight this season. get your shopping decisions made early. but this week we had reports of u.p.s. telling drivers don't pick up ll bean, putting restraints on nike, restraints on gap did you expect it to go that far? >> we haven't seen restraints on our business we work with a lot of third party shipping companies early on we saw a lot of shipping lanes getting more congested. southern california got more congested early on especially coming out of places like india so we moved our shipping lanes over to savannah, georgia, distribution centers now working with long beach and southern california, what we have seen some congestion and i'm appreciative of all of the partnership there to try to prioritize those toys and games for the holidays and to get them out to consumers our own teams have done a lot of moving around to move and

create a flexible supply chain for us this year and that's really been the key to getting supply and demand to match up in this fourth quarter. we were chasing product, we talked a lot about it. at the end of the second quarter, our fill rates for in demand product categories were low. in the 50, 60% range not how we nrmormally operate o business those are now in the 90% range for most categories. for nerf and those popular games for the child, baby yoda products, and other products that are in hot demand, if we're still able to supply those, although we had to do a lot of moving around in our order to do that. >> that's where i was going to go let me go somewhere else then, brian, which is this somewhat unexpected announcement from warner bros., getting rid of the window, movies and hbo max going it appear at the same time in the theater and on your screen at home. you guys connect a lot of marketing for your toys to

movies and to premieres of new characters in movies any impact at all on your business, your thoughts? >> we're also in that business now, having acquired e-1 early this year, i've talked to a lot of smart people and studio heads over the last few days to understand what this means i think in the short-term there is some air quotes, but i would say covid rules apply in 2021, people try to work their way through and entertainment environment where you're trying to satisfy audiences and consumers and their new predilection to how they want to consume content and try to support theater owners through a challenging period i think some of that shifts again, we're looking out to 2022 for some of our films, for our next transformers movie. we have two films coming in the fall, one in partnership with paramount and snake eyes and then our own my own little pony animated feature in the fall we look at how you build those

events around that i will tell you, where you're in a premeditated way, developing a strategic plan, so as we have done with the walt disney company on the mandalorian, as we did with transformers work for cybertron, a fan oriented tv series on netflix, we had incredible success, merchandising success, with streamed content connected to retail i think it requires being very thoughtful and prospective about which ones of these movies are we going to put into streaming, which ones go into theatrical, and i think long-term the windows do shift beyond 2021, the windows shift and narrow and you're going to look at the economics and the way that consumers and audiences want to view content >> yeah, interesting to get your thoughts on that, brian, thank you. and thank you overall, appreciate you coming on today >> happy to do it. now for our etf spotlight,

looking at the arc next generation internet etf ticker it more than doubled this year powered by names like tesla and roku up about 139%. pager duty, the software company surging this morning after posting a narrower than expected quarterly loss, revenue coming in above wall street estimates that stock up 19%. and ceo of pager duty will join us next hour on "squawk alley ". "squawk on the street" will be right back ♪

♪ ♪

s&p this morning, fresh record high, it is now up 14% for the year on our final jobs friday for 2020. obviously a disappointment this morning. we're going to talk about the number with goldman's chief economist jan hatzius in a moment back in two minutes. america's been waiting for.

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i'm dominic chu. here is your cnbc news update at this hour. two u.s. marshals have been wound and a suspect killed during a shootout in new york city the suspect was andre sterling, who was wanted on several charges including shooting a massachusetts state trooper. both marshals are expected to recover. hyundai is recalling another 130,000 vehicles because of engine problems. the recall covers certain santa fe models, and sonata hybrids. they fined hyundai for delaying safety recalls. an unprecedented $19 billion fund to promote his goal of zero carbon emissions by the year 2050

and this, this is rarer than a hole in one. brendan steel hitting an unbelievable 242 yard shot on a par 5 hole at the maya copa golf classic. it goes in for the albatross that's a 2 on a par 5, three strokes under par. congratulations. that is your cnbc news update for this hour. carl, back over to you >> dom, fun just listening to you call that play better than jim nantz. great stuff. >> you got it. >> dominic chu. refresh record highs on the s&p and the dow as we get that jobs number coming in lower than expected employers adding the fewest new workers in six months. let's bring in jan hatzius to talk about the number and a lot more good morning, jan. good to see you. >> good to see you, carl >> any one offs in the data that would make this number a little more suspect or is this

confirming what we suspected, a slowdown in new hires? >> i think it is largely what you see is what you get. we are seeing a slow down. it is coming to a large extent in the sectors of the economy that are most virus sensitive, like retail, like restaurants. so i think it is confirming that the economy has been slowing sharply in the fourth quarter and probably still in that process. and i think that's visible in the establishment survey, with lower than expected jobs gain. it is visible in the household survey where the decline in the unemployment rate was entorely due to lower labor force participation and household unemployment shrunk. i think it is pretty consistent with the idea that as we go into the winter, the virus numbers are taking a toll, and probably also means the economy requires

somewhat more support on the fiscal and on the monetary side, as we go into 2021, and especially in the spring, we're very opt mystic that there will be a sharp recovery once we get there. but still a little bit of ground to cover between new and then. >> yeah. and your desk has been pretty good at trying to determine the odds of a deal coming together and this week you did say you thought it was a little bit more likely on what are you basing that? is it simply the commentary we have gotten from leadership or something else >> it is basically that. so our expectation has been $700 billion deal, after inauguration day on january 20th, but it sounds like there is a somewhat higher chance that things might already come together more quickly. the two sides have moved together a bit with democratic leadership endorsing the $900

billion number it seems like they're not that far apart anymore. things could happen somewhat earlier already. >> jan, 9.8 million workers are still out of the workforce that were employed before the pandemic i'm wondering how long you think it is going to take to get back to full employment and what exactly full employment will be after covid-19, how many people will be out of the workforce and labor force permanently that would have otherwise stayed in for another 3 to 5 years >> we do think that it is going to take probably several years before we're back in the sort of sub4% range that we have prior to the pandemic for the end of next year we're at about 5.25% for the unemployment rate, and as you say, that only shows you a partial picture of the labor market damage because you have seen people drop out of the

workforce. i think the news on the labor market is generally been good. not in this report, but if you look at 2020, since the economy bottomed and the restrictions started to ease in april, may, generally it has been better than expected. we have seen less evidence for scarring effects in the labor market than a lot of people were concerned about. but still some risk of scarring and i think from a policy perspective, if i were a policymaker on the fiscal monetary side, i would be urging that more support is needed in order to minimize those risks. >> can't help but think of the parallels between now and 2008 you have a new administration transitioning into office. november 2008 the unemployment rate was 6.7%. november 2020, unemployment rate 6.7% obviously different timelines, different external forces, but, jan, do you think the slowness

of the jobs recovery this time around is going to make us look at the recovery after the great recession and say, that actually happened fairly quickly or do you think it will be quicker than that? >> i think it is -- well, it is -- i think much quicker than the level of unemployment is the same, but the direction is different. back then it was 6.7% on the way to 10% at the end of 2009 now it is 6.7% in our view, even with weaker numbers in the short-term to -- on the way to, you know, 5.25% by the end of next year. i think that the shape of the recovery is very different this is much more v-shaped than the post rate recession recovery or the early 1990s recovery. i think we'll be looking back on it and say that the downturn was, of course, unprecedented and really terrifying, but the

comeback of the economy also is faster than these past cycles. >> jan, as you're starting to assemble a look at what we're hearing from the incoming economic team, obviously discussion from yellen about focus on employment, climate policy, and brian dooez eese at nec, how do you think that will affect net net the economy once policies are put into place? >> i think a lot is going to depend on what happens in these georgia senate races if you have a republican majority in the senate, then i think you'll still get an economic support package in the short-term, whether that's before inauguration or after inauguration or some of both but i think you will probably see fewer longer term changes in fiscal policy both on the tax and spending side. if democrats were to win those

two races in georgia, and therefore again gain control, i think you could have longer term changes as well increases in spending on infrastructure climate, healthcare, and education, and probably some increases in taxes on upper income earners and corporations as well. how big those are going to be i think is going to -- it is a little hard to say, it would still be a 50/50 senate, so the most moderate of democrat in the senate would essentially be pivotal. so i think the key in the shorter term probably is still the economic support package that would be significantly bigger if you had a democratic senate, even if it was narrow. we would be raising our 700 billion number to something significantly larger in that scenario >> yeah.

we'll have more answers on that in early january finally, jan, ten-year, 97 basis points we can imagine the hand wringing that will happen if that crosses one. you are so level headed. i wonder what your reaction will be if it happens >> i think a lot depends on not just the level of long-term interest rates but also broader financial conditions and in an environment where risky assets, equities, credit, continue to perform well, and the economy and the expectation is that despite the near term weakness with the help of some additional policy action, the economy is going to recover pretty quickly come q2, then i would expect the rates to drift gradually higher at the longer end, curve to steepen, and i think that would be -- wouldn't be particularly worrisome. if you saw on the other hand that rates were going up, in an environment where that was starting to take a toll on other

markets and maybe the rear economy, i think it would be something that would be more worrisome and policy action would be needed. >> that's going to be definite talking point for us in our conversations in the new year. final jobs friday of the year, jan, we always love sharing it with you thanks >> thank you very much >> jan hatzius, goldman sachs. boeing lowering the plans for 787 dreamliner production, now planning to build five per month in mid-2021. previous plan was six per month. not enough to reverse what has been a significantly good week 6% gain just yesterday we'll continue to keep an eye on shares of boeing stay with us ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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we're talking abo ing abouiy chains when it comes to the vaccine. how about demand for testing swabs. kate looking at that today hey, kate. >> puritan medical products ramped up production of two types of its much needed nasal swabs for testing, which we know is a major weapon in the ongoing fight against covid-19 since the spring, the company added not one, but two new facilities that will be at full capacity by june of 2021 puritan went from producing some 20 million swabs monthly in the spring to now more than 160 million a month, that's expected to reach more next summer in partnership with the government. 400 additional workers will be needed to continue ramping up production wages and benefits are really competitive and while competing in recruiting is a challenge for the company, they're hoping that their mission will entice others

to join their ranks. >> i think all of us are better working tirelessly to increase our capacity, where, you know, we're going to keep going until the job is done, until we meet that requirement we understand we're in the middle of a pandemic that, you know, is affecting so many so to be fortunate enough to make such a big difference, we're all pretty proud of that >> the company will have more than tripled its workforce in just a year with two shifts during the week, weekend overtime as well, and until now all of the three facilities are at full capacity it won't be meeting demand, but inc. magazine named puritan its 2020 company of the year, calling it the most important manufacturer in the world. kayla, back to you >> we're going to be testing for covid for a long time, even after the vaccine, it is an important story, kate rogers out west, kate, thank you. up next on "squawk on the

street," we'll speak with the ceos of two ambulance companies who warn the emergency response system is nearing its breaking point. stay tuned [ whispering ]

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at&t, we called this house meeting because you advertise gig-speed internet, but we can't sign up for that here. yeah, but i'm just like warming up to those speeds. you've lived here two years. the personal attacks aren't helping, karly. don't you have like a hot pilates class to get to or something? [ muffled scream ] stop living with at&t. xfinity can deliver gig to the most homes.

the spike in covid-19 case is is greatly impacting the glance industry in this country. in a letter obtained exclusively by nbc news, the american ambulance association told the department of health and human services that the 911 emergency medical system throughout the united states is at a breaking point. joining us now is richard zushlov and randy owen, ceo at global medical response. welcome to both of you dr. anthony fauci says we have yet to see the post thanksgiving peak of vivid cases. running companies that work with ambulances and emts, how do you align your resources for what's to come in the coming weeks? randy, i'll start with you >> thank you you know, it's a challenge and obviously it's been incredibly challenging year with this real spike. you have a scenario as the association has where all of our workforce, richard's workforce, our workforce are incredibly

tired, stressed. the extra work that they have to do is very taxing. both mentally and physically and there's a lot of turnover. and there's a shortage of providers. and so i think we all are trying to do everything we can to bring additional resources to the table from, you know, other caregivers as well as bringing others into the industry but it is a big challenge. >> richard, what is the toll that the longevity of this crisis is taking on your workers and how hard is it to find workers to actually staff to meet these -- this surge in demand >> it seems to be an all time high turnover rate and there's a huge shortage of paramedics nationwide, whether it is for the public fire departments or the private ambulance companies. it's extreme problem right now i've been in this business now for 49 years and the most severe disaster we ever responded to was hurricanes katrina and rita this coronavirus is just been

very difficult for us because we don't really know when it's going to end we've been at this now for nine months and it puts an extreme stress on the medics i find a lot of our medics are taking early retirement because they're concerned about catching the covid-19 disease we have a severe problem here now in louisiana because we're having a second spike. in all of our hospitals are overloaded and not able to accept our patients, so we're forced to transport patients as far as 100 to 200 miles way to another hospital that can take them and it just seems to be continually being a problem. i know the vaccine will help we don't know when this will slow down. it seems to go up and then back down that presents a lot of overtime for our people it just completely stresses them out, particularly whether they go back home to their families the their families are concerned and they may bring the disease back to the house. >> how difficult is it right now to actually find people to fill these jobs to the extent that as

you said, people are choosing to retire or simply walk away because of the stress load >> well in, my opinion, we need to get more people involved in training our paramedics. it is great job if you like to help your neighbor out it takes a certain individual that wants to have the adrenaline to respond to the 911 calls. this, though, has changed it you know, it's also causing problems that i think are going to be delayed until next year because many of our patients don't want to take them to a hospital they think that's where they'll get sicker so that people are having heart problems or having strokes we have many problems trying to coach them into going to the hospital emergency room and they're not doing so i think that's just going to prolong and roll over to next year and we're going to have people be in worse health next year because they didn't take care of what they needed to this year. >> randy, give me a sense or a snapshot of your business on the financial side here. one would expect this is taking a significant strain on your

business just, i would think, let alone the ppe that's been required but so many other things are you guys going to make it through financially this period? >> look, you know, we'll make it through. obviously, you know, we're a national business. and so we've had had incredible stress in our local markets. our volumes have been way down as richard indicated, the responses are up you know, there is 30% of the time we get a call that we don't transport. and so if you don't transport, you don't get reimbursement. so that on top of the ppe, the other, you know, the additional costs. it also takes a lot longer for a response because you need to decontaminate and there is a lot of extra, you know, effort look, i think we will -- we'll get through. but because of what we've been able to do with the federal government as well with fema and with homeland security but for the industry, for the small providers, it's incredibly challenging. they face the same issues but don't have other areas that they can generate revenue

>> here in washington, there's been a messaging shift under way from a politically toxic push for funding for state and local governments to a potentially more palettable labelling of that as funding for police and fire resources and emts. i know that you obviously get some funding from hospitals from insurance reimbursements as well but how much would funding from washington help you alleviate some of this stress and how much do you need right now? i'll give you both one final word before we go. richard, i'll start with you >> let me just say that is relative in our area, when you have the public systems get more public tax money, they raise the wages for the paramedics and then we have to follow suit. so it does bring the cost up so that is a one concern i think one way to fix that is to train a lot more paramedics so we will not have such a severe shortage. we all know that we have a

shortage of nurses but the paramedic shortage is much more severe and many times we have people that will leave us to go work for the fire department simply because they're paying a higher amount >> okay. >> yeah. i think from my standpoint -- >> randy >> go ahead. >> go ahead, randy, quickly, before we go >> yeah. look, we got some initial funding. it was about two weeks payroll that's all it was. so while it was helpful, there's a lot of unspent funds that are already allocated for providers. wet by this $12 billion. it is important. we've been asking hhs and continue to ask them to release those funds because while helpful it was a very small amount for what other hospitals and other institutions have gotten >> hopefully your views will influence some of the conversations happening here in washington richard, randy, our thanks to both of you during a specially difficult time

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