tv Fast Money CNBC December 4, 2020 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
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deal, won't there? >> and mike? >> the list appetites are getting a lift you say are we at a good as it gets moment for wall street. not what we can hope for as far as incremental good news >> have a great weekend. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight, grab your passport because we are taking a trip overseas where you can find the next big opportunity for your money and the historic vote in the house that sent cannabis soaring higher and who is taking the countrown this special day stocks hitting all time highs. the s&p 500, dow and nasdaq are
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at their highest level ever. but the best trade may be emerging far away. the eem is far outpacing the s&p 500 over the last three months a nosedive in the dollar it is at its lowest level since april 18 is it time to rotate out of the u.s. and look abroad for the next big trade, tim? >> it seems like it could be a rerun of creating a globe. these are dynamics we haven't seen in a long time. if you look at where the dollar is if you are investing in emerging markets, the currency is at least 50% of your return profile and high yielding currency is a
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driver of this reality but it's the turkish and african moneys the blowoff top was around 51.75. i think you have rates moving higher, but normalizing. normal high rates for em aren't good if you look at the source trade and things moving around the world, some of this is about a global recovery. in some sense at least, the u.s. dollar and rates will stay lower for longer and that's fantastic for the rest of the world. >> we may be in the depths of a coronavirus pandemic, but overseas there is a recovery component especially in asia, especially eem >> eem was one of my trades a couple weeks ago and i am sticking with it i think you can have both trades
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in your port polio i used to as an example. reasonably weak employment data, but yields were up markets are looking ahead, looking for the vaccine and stimulus news we got this week so it's cyclical my only caution with eem, i think sentiment on the dollar is bearish, so i think you could have a counter trend rally that might take steam out of momentum in eem copper is at new high. that's a decent proxy how investors are feeling about china. maybe over the next couple months you will see it trade sideways pmis are at the highest level since 2010
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it's 25% of eem right there. i think the fed remains behind the curve on inflation on purpose. that puts pressure on the dollar the setup going into 2021 over the next year i think is pretty good >> positioning might be good, but the longer trend seems to be lower. that's what is expected with a biden administration on the expectation there will be more sending even though congress looks to be divided at this point. that's what most people are expecting, dollar weakness ahead. >> you can't have rates move up, as we have seen moving up incrementally, on a percentage basis it has rallied quite a bit. the dollar, you have to have one or the other going down. and j.p. is saying europe is the
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place to be. so eem has a laurj asian leverage, but how do you buy european stocks? most americans or most people that invest here don't want to buy an actual listed european stock so you buy ones with european exposure. you have heard me mention tse. it has a 65% leverage to europe, 24% leverage to asia oln, 45% leverage international. capri national is a 45% leverage as well. i get my value exposure and then my european exposure in the same bucket that's why these names i am looking for them to perform as they have outperformed in the last three months. >> bonawyn, do you like european
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exposure and how would you have that in your portfolio >> it's not that i would dump the u.s. to invest overseas, but i would prefer to be looking at eem, ewz as opposed to moving further and further along the risk spectrum and dumpster diving on companies impaired by the coronavirus. that's what we are seeing. they are picking up more speculative businesses that are trading into impaired territory. that's what i would steer clear of and i would say there is argument that the premium between domestic markets and emerging markets should shrink you are seeing that in terms of some of the appreciation that tim and others are mentioning.
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i am looking at pwz. >> tim, you can go for the double what happen double whammy and go for an overseas trade >> there is an australian company listed in the uk, but also listed here but has enormous exposure to china the bluks, that part of the commodity trade. these are trades we haven't talked about in a long time on the show they are interesting, but look at u.s. steel. the steel companies are ripping. i think the balance sheet sensitivity for some of these was enormous the flip side is that they are starting to generate cash flow i caution investors because these are more volatile trades
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i don't think you should be dumping things to look overseas. do the ratio and you can see how badly emerging markets have underperformed in over a decade. someone who likes to investing overseas, i caution some of those can be violent >> that's how tim got his original "fast money" nickname ambassador because that's his area they don't want to go into the maga, the biggest tech names in the market, so they are looking elsewhere. >> they are. to tim's point, you have to be careful and do your homework i do think that's where the opportunity is i am sure you covered it on the show this week think of zoom.
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they beat on earnings and everything metric and the stock was down 15% that day. some of the names people have crowded into are reflecting expectations too high, so i think you can look to other areas. you had weaker employment before today but it wasn't all bad. transportation warehousing, manufacturing and truck driving looked good. consumer free cash flow is still very high coming out of a recession. i think it will be less been dushls and more about cyclicals, like autos industrials. things more correlated with payroll growth and pmi increases. we are talking about this widening out rally everything seems to be working people are pointing to caution
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and that might be true the market might be overbought, but at the same time you have con city uts trading above market right now when you are overbought, that kind of momentum in the 95th percentile, you tend to have above average earnings in the next month or so so things are looking good for the next year. >> bonawyn, should we be concerned about the overbought levels in the s&p and nasdaq >> certainly,but on days we sell off, there tends to be a correlation between megacap outperformance on the downside and industrial and high beta names on the upside. i would decouple those two if you are looking for a way to play it more bearishly, look for
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welcome back to "fast money. an historic vote in the house to decriminalize marijuana. it does not change individual state laws on marijuana and still needs to be approved by the senate tim, does it get approved by the senate >> no, this bill, at least in the current congress is dead on arrival. this is an historic day for cannabis i am excited about this. but the most important thing is that states continue to legalize and you are getting republican senators heading to washington where their main constituency is
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a cannabis state there are nine, i think, senators to represent those interest to the u.s. cannabis players, the rally into elections was not only about legalization but about the profitability of these companies. look at the names on the screen. these are the biggest cannabis companies in the world what stocks have done over the last few weeks is not necessarily representative of the opportunity. it has been such a strong run here, but different than other times in can business's history. they are getting better and not worse. a big win today. annie, you like constellation brands does this news make it better? >> i do like constellation for
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its own brand, but as karen finerman likes to say, it is an opportunity of its own about a year ago they placed their cfo david kline at the helm they recently reported their first top and bottom line beef this proves that the ceo is putting the right financial disciplines and guard rails and executing on strategy and great opportunities with new initiatives going forward. it is an addressable market mostly in canada it is about a $20 billion.
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with the u.s. portion being cbd, which is the case in many states, that gets you to $60 billion opportunity. big growth from that segment the beer side of the business is growing with the best operating margins in the 39 to 40% range and that's driven by corona and modela they did it in the midst of a pandemic and that holds a lot of promise for them they are already in the number four market share position they also just --
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>> annie, steve has a question i want to let him in here. >> annie, when you look at the stock, in a lot of ways this has been a shelter in place stock because restaurants and bars aren't open, but people are buying more beverages from their home stock is above pre-covid levels and doubled off the bottom are you worried when we restart the economy, this will start to fade >> they also lost almost all of their on site business so that will return. it is not a one way or another type of trade. that's one reason i like it. sporting events have been dead, restaurants, bars. that's all opportunity growth. >> thank you, annie.
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if this were a fast pitch, which it is not, but it is annie's best thought right now how would you vote if it were? >> i would be buying it feels like any other early stage industry for me i want to get exposure through a company like constellation and through ownership in canopy. it is reflected the cannabis option, but that's right around where the stock has been trading the past number of years it is looking at breakout around 210. i think if we can hold that level, probably the next stop is in the 230s. i like the plan to return capital to shareholders. these companies continue to learn and understand the economics a little better. canopy with their new ceo, talking about rationalizing
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investment with the size of the market i would buy here >> bonawyn >> i would be cautionly optimistic i probably don't have as much holiday cheer as mills does. but one thing that comes to mind is the accumulation of debt. i think they have about $11 billion. we have seen that jump from about 750 mill wion to about 1.9 to $2 billion. i understand the elevated debt allows for a higher roe, but i would like to see that a bit lower particularly in that they are taking it into a more speculative area or risk >> coming up, we are celebrating a birthday for one restaurant.
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welcome back to "fast money. we are celebrating a birthday tonight. burger king, home of the whopper turning 66 years old today the first burger king franchise opened in miami, florida the stock popped today but shares are down this year about 5% are you sinking your teeth into this name? tim seymour, i know you are a fan. >> mel, if i gave you one word to describe the king and i do
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mean the mascot, not necessarily the franchise. what would you say >> creepy. >> creepy! ding ding ding, exactly. burger king has had a few lives from public to private i think fast food is a beneficiary out of covid i think the king for all of his 66 years is looking interesting here overall i'm long mcdonald's and i think that's the preferred play for me. >> we wanted to know, me being myself and the crack staff here at "fast money." we wanted to know how creepy the king has been over the years we went back in time there is the current king on the left he started out quite cute in the 1960s. look at him sitting on his burger grasso, your top pick in fast
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food >> i would go with mcdonald's as well i was in shake shack and i think it can go higher, but i had to sell it to make room for some of the other names i am in. but it is worth noting that guy had his tenth birthday in burger king the year they opened. kudos to him and great call. it looks like they are building a base and looking to breakout another guy favorite >> he's not even here. time for the final trade >> a lot of discussion out of emerging markets tur, the turkish lira i think is moving higher, meaning lower >> i think you gave it away.
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>> ewz, brazil. >> i would be a buyer of gm. i think there is an opportunity in autos generally i think the ford earnings are a little too cheap gm >> steve grasso? >> i am going to stick with tse. i think the market is overlooking the fact the democrats have a great chance at taking the senate as well. that will make the reflation trade rip as well. >> that does it for us we will see you back here monday don't go anywhere, "options action" is up next for over 30 years,
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happy friday we have a great show coming up for you. >> if you are new here tonight, a big welcome to you for a variety of reasons, interest in options trading is exploding. this game can get very complicated very quickly but if you are ready to take it to the next level, this is the place to be. if you are a regular viewer, you know there is always something in the show for everyone tonight the volatility
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