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tv   The Exchange  CNBC  December 7, 2020 1:00pm-2:00pm EST

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>> stephen weisss is going to like this, a little buy high and sell high, todayine, a name performing very well. >> steve weiss, first of all, thank you, joe moderna. the stock is having a good day today and will have a great week i think 200 is the past of least resistance right now when you get their approval for the eua >> thanks, everybody "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans, and here's what's ahead on monday the rush to the exits. airbnb and dore dash are leading the ipo frenzy as year end fast approaches, but which have been the better bet this year, ipos or the new kids' back? don't seld your gold one wildly followed economist says don't be worried about their weakness and intel can't catch a break. a wall street lift and millions for bob dylan. let's begin with the markets
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this hour. dom chu has more. >> reporter: lyft for a couple of different key parts of the market we're kind of floating near this fractionally down territory, the nasdaq, russell 2000 and dow all hit record highs on friday maybe not surprising to see a pullback nasdaq up one-third of 1% resuming the short-term leadership role we've seen most of the year. speaking of the nasdaq stocks, cloud computing. you talked about spacs and ipos. cloud computing has been a very hot part of the market this year take a look at the etfs. both track loud cloud computing companies, ticker wlc is at a record high and a bigger etf in terms of it asset side is still up 65% very big moves here in just the last couple of weeks off the lows that they saw in the fall so far this year, so watch cloud
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computing, and then speaking of another lift, it's not lift per se, but look at boeing shares, upgrade today by analysts over at ubs cite willing some of the optimism around the boeing 737 max model jet and its trajectory going forward. that's helping to porter gains still down 25% year to date but look at that move ever since vaccines were announced and we've seen some of that reopening trade play out a big movement for boeing. we'll see if that maintains that way in the next few weeks to could. back over to you >> yeah, looks like a stair step climb over the recent performance there. dom, thank you very much, at long last araibi and door d.a.s.h. are going public this week leslie picker has a look at their offerings, one of the best days ever for the ipos and a hot new way of going public, using a spac bob pisani has the details lesly, let's start with you. >> you're right. two multi-billion dollar ipos coming to market this week
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door dash set to make its debut on wednesday followed by airbnb on thursday. now, kell, it's important to underscore the level of issuance in a single week including spac. we're expecting to see more that be $7 billion worth of ipos this week that's the most since the start of 2014, only three other weeks have actually surpassed that kind of volume, most recently in mid-september and dom was talking about this a big week of software debuts and cloud computing specifically with snowflake and then there was unity and j. frog as well. they went public raisinging a combined $8 billion. before that the only weeks that saw greater everyone uance was in may of 2019 when uber went public and then in september of 2014 when alibaba went public. what's different these times is these billions of dollars in new
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issuance is coming weeks before the end of the year when most institutional investors look in their performance for incentive fee purposes that's when it becomes imperative for them to beat their benchmarks, and if their benchmark is the naz-well, they are looking at beating gains of about 40% year to date no easy task there that appears though to have helped demand considering both airbnb and door dash upped their price ranges kell >> that's fascinating, and you answered the question i was just about to ask, leslie, which the fact that they have upped their price ranges, does it tell you more about the demand for these two particular companies or the chase for ipos this year but i haven't thought of it from what you said but it's really the chase to beat benchmarks >> well, yeah, that's one of the big benefits of going public towards the end of the year in a year that looks like this one is that you've got this kind of desire for alpha us a kind of close ought your positions for the end of the year and historically a big source of
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alpha has been the ipo market if you can get allocation for a, quote, hot deal. now, these two deals are at least psychologically at this stage appearing hot considering they both raised their price ranges before they set to debut later this week, and so for an investor, if you kind of look at that psychology you think, oh, wow, if these deals are getting that kind of demand where they can raise their price range and maybe they are going to pop on the first day of trading the first day of pop can be a noise pop at alpha especially if you have a few weeks for it to come back down to earth after its debut. >> that's so interesting great reporting. leslie picker. as well as ipos have done this year spacs even raised more money. what does that tell you about the future for listings. let's go to bob pisani for more on that. >> 2020 was a surprisingly good year for ipos or also spacs or
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special purchase acquisition companies. believe it or not, it's the best way since 2014, even excludinging this week, according to renaissance capital. money was raised by spacs, $223 bill crop. the ren nance capital etf which is a basket of the 50 largest companies that have gone public over the last couple of years has been a big ben fish riff all the interest in ipos this year, up 100% this year. hit historic high reasonsly. assets under management are now over $500 million. it's been boosted by pandemic driven demand for the zooms and pin trests and the biotech companies like moderna, typical stocks in an ipo market. that ipo etf will be one of the first etfs to include airbnb and
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door dash and there will be plenty of big name unicorns to go public in 2021. spacex is likely, stripe, waymo, and instacart, grocery delivery, a competitor to door dash. as for the spacs, there's over 100 spacs currently seeking acquisitions with time limits of 18 to 24 months maximum implying if the market conditions hold up 2021 will be at least as strong as 2020 for spacs but remember the market condition is the key. if they don't hold up upmarket and generally improving economy than ipo and spacs are still going to suffer regardless kell >> it's interest, bob, how well the ipo etfs have done and it dispels come of the concerns about some of the ipos like uber which had a rough debut. overall they are doing quite well they don't include spacs in the ipo etf. there is a spac etf. i mean, would renaissance ever
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put them both in the same bass kelt or just thinks you should have exposure to these separately >> from my understanding i doubt they would ever do that. that's a good question i'll asked kathleen. she will be on "etf edge" in a few minutes. they will been pretty religious about this that a spac is very different going public than an ipo market overall i think the most important thing is how successful they have been remember, spacs were terrible investments up until a couple years ago. mostly small-cap investments and didn't do well in the after mark it wasn't until you got the new group coming in thanks to having successful ipo, virgin galactic and others like that in the last two years that spacs have really taken off. this is a ent phenomenon think about this, $130 billion in spacks and ipos this year that's the most amount of money raised since going back to the 2,000 era, since dotcom. it's a really amount of money.
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>> you're reading my mine, bob, and that chart you just showed, that spac has a lot to prove if it wants to rival ipo but look how ipo has done i'll let you go and do that interview. we'll check back in with you soon. >> both airbnb and door dash have raised their target prices this week. like bob was just saying, if you combine ipo and spac volume even before these, $130 billion raised is the most since the dotcom bubble. what's this telling us for more let's bring in dan gallagher, the financial columnist for "the wall street journal. i know you have specific thoughts on airbnb relative to door dash but as a first blush reaction, is this anything to be concerned about in terms of the volume of money that's being raised in the ipo and spac market this year, or is it a healthy sign
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>> that depends on i guess where you sit on the investment. i think with ipos we're seeing definitely kind of a rush -- rush to get things in in the end of the year. i mean, what's interesting about it is that all of this is taking place in the background of the pandemic that it's caused so much economic damage overall, but the markets seem kind of, you know, resilient or even ignoring what's going on there, so i think -- i think if you're a company that's seeing a lot of potential offering, i understand the reason to try to get out now because investors seem to be willing to take it >> right, and we've seen some really high valuations and likes of snow flakes and companies, i mean, their business model ipos with the spac offerings and everything has been taken to very kindly right now. anything you would warn investors about, i guess not so much with the offerings this week, but are there -- or is it just obvious i mean, people who are betting on some of these spacs and kind
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of big idea businesses obviously aren't coming through the balance sheets because they don't exist. >> exactly, and i do think people should be careful about that you know, we seem to be in this market where caution is real el, you know, tossed aside, and i think if -- you know, it's hard to say like when does it get to a point when investors start realizing, oh, wow, this is super risky. ive mean, a lot of these risks are pretty apparent who are going to read and do some simple reading on the documents i think airbnb and door dash are big well-known businesses obviously, so i think there's probably some degree of comfort with that one, but when you get under a lot of spac deals that a lot of people haven't heard of before and they see upward numbers on the income statements and then buy, that's definitely a risky position. >> yeah, so let me ask you about airbnb relative to door dash if you had to put the gallagher
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family fortunes on the line which one would you choose >> well, of course, i can't make any investments at all but, you know, it i felt airbnb was in a better position because, you know, the problem with door dash is going out at this time when their business as it is enjoying this huge demand obviously from the pandemic, people can't dine out, you know, take out and delivery is the only way to eat out unless you're cooking, and that's obviously not going to repeat that's going to be over sometime next year. airbnb by contrast is going out of the time when right as the pandemic has really damaged its business but it's also shown a different resilience to bounce back quickly and i think as a whole airbnb has got more potential for future upside than door dash has right now because i think when door dash gets out sometime neck year, you know, next year's financials are not going to show the kind of growth that they have been seeing because that i think would be
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impossible. >> and a lot of people have had kind of the opposite point of view about which one they would go with, so i like your view just because it's not the typical one. thanks so much for joining us today. really appreciate it. >> my pleasure. >> read more of his detailed thoughts online. still coming up today, it's been a year of stock market records and one strategist says the bull isn't ready to stop he'll tell us three tailwinds he sees for stocks despite signs of market euphoria. plus, after starting to climb higher, intell getting hit again. it's the worst performer in the dow today shutting more than 4% and looking for a new faster apple chip those details coming up. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board.
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welcome back to "the exchange "stocks today are back to their stay-at-home trades. the dow and s&p are in the red the dow at a new session low right now while the s&p just hit an intraday all-time high earlier, still up a quarter percent, but my next guest sees three tailwinds for the broader markets next year. with me is barry knapp, director of investment at ironsides economics. how does the nasdaq follow on a
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0% performance year and how can you be so crazy to think people should increase their exposure to energy now? >> yeah. that's -- energy i might be a little late on i thought a year ago that the market would start to clear and in particular because the elassity of supply was changed and the implications over time are a more stable time and a more stable return on capital investment but we surely didn't have that last year with the pandemic i do think though as we move through the business cycle energy will start to rationalize in that sense support as far as the nasdaq outlook goes, what i think will develop over the course of this year it's going to become increasingly evident this year in 2021 and beyond is much like in the '80s when we built out all the technology capacity, fiber optics cables and the like, in the 2000s benefits of that actually
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accrued to the users of that tech. some of the platforms, for example, but seasons that just started sending data around the world and technology didn't outperform i think we saw a similar if not extreme example of the same when they 2010s when the digitalization built out of the cloud is going to -- those benefits are going to migrate from producers of the technology to the consumers, so we've already seen it in the consumer sector, particularly during the pandemic businesses that sell on the internet are proliferating are you've got a 3% gap higher relative to overall general merchandise sales. you'll see it in health care and in industrials and the confusion of the market will are broaden out. i think you should not be overweighted any longer and should be overweight some of the sectors that are going to be the beg beneficiaries. >> and i like how you say that
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maybe on energy we've already started to see that happen the three tileneds in particular that you're talking about for next year, kind of global rebound, capital investment in the u.s., a recovery there and reflation, and i guess is there anything -- i mean, you would probably be in the camp that things, you know, treasury yields are way too low right now. is rising rates parts of your story next year? >> it is i stuck my neck out for august and called that the end of the 39-year bond mark. be aof strategists making profound announcements like that, but i decided to do it anyway i think there's a fundamental change in the inflation outlook relative to the last three decades. this is a decidedly different business cycle the debt isn't in the retail -- the biggest can't abuse was
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goods prices and that was a cons fence of going from 750 million industrialized workers in 1980 to 1 bill crop by 2010 because of the integration of china and the soviet bloc into the industrial world and global supply chains. we've run off the bodies we've shocked that on a number of occasions people are going to restructure and move away from just in time supply management but just in case, so you should not get that disinflationary element and that along with running out of those bodies will win crease businesses willingness to substitute capital for labor and that should indeed push rates up over time so the fed is going to fight it we're in financial repression but i do think they are headed up for sure over the course of a decade. >> that's interesting. >> always get so many different ideas about what's going on in the world from talking to you and hearing from you again, just to put it the bottom line for investors, you think we
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can still get 15% return next year appreciate it. >> thanks, kelly. >> barry knapp. goldman sachs isn't as bullish on markets here. the firm saying despite what looks like imminent vaccine approval rising covid cases and hospitalizations could spur a position unwind and further restrictions or shutdowns could slow short-term economic growth. read more on that at cnbc.com/pro a golden nomination. gold may be out of favor right now but one prominent investor says once yellen takes over it will be back on the wall street's radar we'll speak with the largest health system in houston about vaccine preparation, distribution and who to prioritize we're back in a couple
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welcome back to "the exchange the dow is near session lows bounced off of them quite nicely we were down 219 we're now down 170, half a percent decline and a third% decline for the s&p and the nasdaq is up a quarter percent that tells you about the sectors, communications services, utilities and technologies are your leader energies, financial and real estate, those are the laggards trimming some of the recent games and teledoc is equal after
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a downgrade and they will see an increase n patients but also an increase in competition. broadcom is moving higher ahead of earnings later this week. bank of america adding the company to its one corp isi list broadcome is up to $4.21 today the tesla stock is scheduled to be added to the s&p, up 619% let's check in now with seema mode here's your cnbc news update at federal judge in michigan has denied a republican effort to decertify the state's election results saying it provided no proof of wrongdoing, just, quote, speculation and conjecture and a sim lawyer outcome where a lawsuit from sydney powell has been dismissed on multiple grounds saying powell failed to show evidence
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of a conspiracy to throw the election to biden and an early study showing a universal vaccine for the flu. it produced and i mun response to flu strains that lasted for at least 18 months and in russia a warehouse full of fireworks blew up in spectacular fashion hundreds of firefighters fought the blaze for hours. surprisingly no injuries were reported are they got lucky that's a cnbc news update at this hour. kelly, back to you >> you almost feel bad just observing how beautiful it is. >> yeah, exactly. >> we'll see you in a little bit. for gen-z, entering the job market for the first time in the middle of ain unprecedented economic crisis, key disparities that are hindering economic advancement from many. sharon epperson is here now with result from a new survey highlighting from teens believe some of the problems are. >> reporter: they believe it's a
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lack of economic opportunity based on race, gender and ethnicity and the keep obstacle is the pay gap teens and economic opportunity asked are people in our society paid less based on race, ethnicity and gender. >> 61% of teens answered yes and 19% said no and 20% were not sure on entrepreneurship, the survey asked are people having a harder time getting financial support to start a business base on their race, ethnicity or gender? 69% answered yes, and 73% says that racism is embedded in societal institutions such as laws, rules and procedures now the covid-19 crisis has exacerbated some racial and gender disparities, yet this financial adviser sees a brighter future. >> the silver link really with this pandemic is that we have all gotten out of our bubble and we are looking into other
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people's community and we're seeing what's happening and we're asking ourselves what can we do about it. >> more than 1,000 teens, ages 13 to 17, responded to this national survey conducted by engine insight and not surprisingly the overwhelming majority of blacks, hispanics and women responded yes to those three questions. kelly? >> do they kind of talk about what they think the response is? >> they kind of rank -- rank what they think had the response should be from organizations and individuals and the federal government as leading the way as well as local communities and then they are looking at businesses and also looking at schools and individuals who are facing inequality to address the issues. >> all right sharon, thank you. sharon epperson, thank you for more don't forgot to join a live virtual summit from 1:00 to
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2:00% eastern. a partnership with junior achievement that will bring the teams together across the country with a group that will discuss economic changes in america. coming up, bitcoin continues to dominate, a 30% lift for lyft, and as intel's comeback about do slow down as apple's chips get faster all ahead in rapid fire. don't go anywhere. personalized wealth planning and unmatched overall value. together with a dedicated advisor, you'll make a plan that can adjust as your life changes, with access to tax-smart investing strategies that help you keep more of what you earn. and with brokerage accounts, you see what you'll pay before you trade. personalized advice. unmatched value. at fidelity, you can have both. ♪ more than this
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welcome back let's catch you up on a couple stovies that should be on your radar today. it's time for rapid fire here to break down the headlines are come nick chu, seema mody and jon fortt. great to see everybody intel under pressure, the worst performer in the dow after a new report said apple is targeting a debut as early as next year for the next series of new math processors intel on its worst pace since october and it's coming after its first nine-day winning streak in three years be a the shares have really struggled to recover. they really fell below their march lows on the next
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generation of processors jon, this story, i think, has -- everybody should care about it, and before we get into all of that a question for you. these new apple ships everybody is raving about. does apple manufacture them in this country, are do you know? >> i don't know generally apple would use somebody like tsmc for manufacture of its chips tsmc has said they are moving manufacturing capacity and that's for u.s. customers including apple so as apple builds more of its chips into its devices going forward i would expect to see more of that manufacturing come here to the u.s. but we'll see. >> yeah. >> here's my point, and i thought stacy raskin said this brilliantly on your show a month ago when it was becoming annish you've the outperformers, everyone who is taking share on the semiconductor industry which takes chips here is basically using tsmc, taiwan semi and that
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kind of implicates taiwan in a very important part of our supply chain so you have half of corporate america relies on china for its sales job and anyone who uses semiconductors especially with intel struggles relying on taiwan. it feels like we're going to be in this impossible selection and i angle that international security angle, fascinating about that story. >> that caught that binery samsung also makes a lot of chips. they do some of that have in south korea and they do some of that here. intel has fans around the world and while they have some in the u.s. they have some in germany and a lot of chip factories and it's time for investors to get more savvy about chip fans, where the manufacturing takes place and there's a lot of
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diversification there. >> i wrote a whole thing about how we've gone back to having all pcs in the house and i read the apple reviews and feel like i need a new macbook. >> there is a time when everybody said intel was going to die because it wasn't making the wireless chips like other companies like qualcomm. intel could be at a real turning point and could make a real name for itself if it could involve playing catchup with companies like advanced microdevices, like nvidia, and it just lacked them? it's a question of if intel can really recover from this hasn't done a lot like the others have. it could be big for a big turnaround if it can get things going. >> jon, we have to move on, but it's a tall order for intel at this point that's a tall order. they are fighting a losing
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battle, doesn't it seem? think that's being overplayed a bit. the nanometer measurements on chips are actually different per manufacturer, so this idea that intel is being lapped, yes, they are a bit behind and they are behind their own plan, but they are not quite as behind. >> i think one of the strugglers this year for the dow market and we should all be paying attention now. what helps us break down the move on lyft today it moved a stock from overweight to neutral raising its price target to $61 a share, and this is after an amazing run. i mean, these shares have more than doubled since the beginning of november with the stock coming off its best monday ever winning its five-week winning streak since last june what else do we need to know >> lyft and uber co-exist in the
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reopening of the trade and all online travel operators and this fails to address is car ownership which has been on the rise during the pandemic, talking about all the consumers and folks who own a are can a. supposed to go back to ride sharing once a vaccine is out. more are inclined to use a car unless it's short distance from wall street to upper east side and that's an example of where you don't feel comfortable using public transportation where you may opt for a ride share, recently i took a lyft about a monthing oomph the price actually went up at any time go down so i think that's something to keep in mind as they try to make ends motor. >> dom >> here's what i would say uber and lyft, uber is worth around $95 billion at this point right now and lyft is worth around $15 billion unier's year-to-date performance has been close to 80, at a record high or hovering right near there meanwhile lyft, despite that mavis run, is up maybe 8%, 9% so
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far in 2020. the big deal here is whether or not the entire industry can grow if it is, this is a catchup trade. this is one where you said if uber's prospects are that good and lyft with emulate them in some capacity, change or form this will be a company with a spread of 2% to 8% year to date, some investors could say this could be a big deal or trade if uber does what it does and lyft could play a little bit of catchup here. >> i wonder if their improvement over the past six weeks also helps the landscape going into the airplane bean and door dash ipos uber and lyft when they were struggling earlier, that was a big black eye for the ipo market and we always love talking bitcoin. a reverse trend moved sharply lower after trading pretty much neither all-time highs, kind of
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around $19,500 closing around the record high when he closed and december 21st the question is this deja vu of three years ago when we had a huge bitcoin rally around thanksgiving, around december and then gave a good bit of that back seema, what are you hearing about why these latest wiggles, i mean, what's the scuttlebutt about if >> for those who follow the space, the 20,000 level is seen as the key psychological level and never got through the level back in 2013 and if they break that barrier i imagine our twitter conversation will be the there. sdwrant yellen is not a fan of bitcoin and what does she do as treasury secretary, ad more regulation to cryptocurrency and other people are thinking a
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central-backed digital currency. whenever that does come you wonder if bitcoin lose its appeal. >> yeah, dom, there was a story out of china today where they are launching a digital yuan and i don't understand the distinction. a digital dollar is just a dollar i carry $5 cash around max anywhere i go these days >> i guess it's just a format capability, right, but you mentioned this whole china discussion a lot of the volatility caused during the last kind of downturn that we saw for cryptocurrencies in general was around the regulatory aspect as soma pointed out, not just here in the u.s. but it was driven in places like china and south korea where there's a lot more trafficking in trading of these kinds of cryptocurrencies. if you do have china get more involved from a central planning standpoint into this particular market that volatility is pretty much here to stay. the real issue right now is whether or not there is enough -- enough fortitude within the bitcoin community to
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be able to say we can withstand this kind of thing and this is not necessarily a stored value but something that can be transacted upon without government oversight just as much that's going to be a big key. >> it doesn't collapse here, i think it will win a lot of fans. jon, all you have to do right now is it shout is get off my lawn. >> investors out there, they all have a theory why things go up and down i don't know why it does that but you should at least have a reason why it does. >> and no thesis creep, not here on rapid fire. before we go let's go to bob dylan. musician and nobel laureate is selling his entire catalog of more than 600 songs over six decades. deals of the term weren't allowed but stevie nicks sold a
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majority stake in her catalog volumed at $100 million. these songs have a ton of staying power and here's my theory lately. i think the music industry is becoming so fragmented, the era in which these kinds of stars could be universally known incredibly profitable if you want to call it, that i just wonder if those days have passed are we ever going to have an artist today who could have a catalog. >> taylor swift. >> yeah, but she's old new, john i mean, that was ten years ago, right? what do you any? >> he's a legend, and that's why i think this music portfolio is sort of the ultimate jewel in the industry and, therefore, getting a lot of attention i think there's a rumor about how much it sold for, $100 million to $200 million and now universal music group as it prepares for the ipo, not only has bob dylan and taylor swift so it's done a good job of building out its portfolio. >> is there anyone who can
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emerge on the scene today, dom my point is taylor swift is already kind of there before the flagmentation of radio and the proliferation of spotify and all these things i mean, is there anyone that could emerge today and ultimately command like a $100 million valuation. is that still possible >> today it's tough. music, like you said, is produced out there and at shelf life is different than it was 20, 40, 50 years ago but if the numbers keep going like this, the only way people will be able to do this is if you're uber wealthy and pay like picasso money. kind of like what happened with taylor swift's catalog i view these as works of art they have scarcity value and that's the big deal. >> jorngs last word on this. >> absolutely it can happen. look at your d.j. callette and
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eminem has been around. >> he's been around for 20 years. >> it's about the songwriting more than just the performance. >> i want to know if someone fade. >> the model is there. it's the ip, the song wright, it's who wrote the code to the song that's why bob dylan is making all this money it's not about any individual performance. it's the code. >> jon is saying content is king, is that what jon is saying i've heard that before, too, by the way. >> thank you, guys, appreciate it jon fortt, dom chu and seema mody. >> gold is climbing today. it's still 4% lower over the past month why should investors should hang on to the ldgo because of the incoming treasury secretary that's next.
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welcome back gold is rallying today but it's still well off its high of $2,000 and change back in august the market continues charging
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higher while vaccines appear to be arriving soon my next guest says don't sell your gold just yet because janet yellen is headed back to washington let's well in dave rosenberg, the chief economist and founder of rosenberg research. great to have you. i really wanted to talk about this call. why do you think a treasury secretary is going to matter that much? >> actually, i'm not concerned that janet yellen will be good or bad on gold herself i think what we're talking about here is the alliance that treasury is going to have with the fed, and so i think that when i brought up to buy gold is because i was going back to the last time we had a treasury secretary that also served previously as head of the fed and it was william miller back in the late 19170s when we had the massive inflation and gold as a great hedge against that. it's really less about janet yellen and might even be more frankly about jay powell and the
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fed, and at some point, you know, i've been in the deflation camp i've been in the big secular bond bull camp but, you know, at some point we're going to reflate so much that we'll get the inflation and that's really why you want gold in the portfolio. >> yeah. dave, that's why i wanted to talk to you in particular about this because it's kind of a break from what we've heard from you in the past and this is really important a couple weeks ago we heard about the same phenomenon, it's called the t-fed and let's focus on the real politic of it. that combination, do you think, are they going to overdo it? are they going to overstimulate? >> well, i think that there's a risk that they already have, and i'm not even talking about the treasury i'm talking about the fed. i mean, we have m-1 growth, kelly, of 56% of year over year.
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m-2 is running 25% year over year and we're getting such dramatic rampant monetary creation that it's going to overtake the contraction in money velocity i'm starting for the first time in decades starting to second guess my long-standing disinflation/reflation view and i'm thinking we're going to ore stimulate and get more inflation than bargained for to tell you the truth, it's more about the fed, and it's when jay powell said that we are going to leave rates at zero. forgot about all the balance sheet expansion. we're going to leave rates at zero even after inflation gets above our magical elusive target of 2%, long after we get to full employment or beyond we're keeping rates at zero so the feds are telling you on their own we'll be keeping real rates negative for at least the next three or four years. >> let me just ask you, because i want to sneak this in before we have to go. why hasn't the bond market reacted yet. is it never going to react is it going to wait until it sees the actual inflation?
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>> so you're talking about why hasn't the ten-year broken above 1% finally, that's what you're asking me? >> yeah. well, look, we've already seen in the market expectations pick up from the lows real rates are less negative than they were before, but it's lép
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it's good to you have. how quickly on fda approval will yout(vaccinating your front li >> quickly the process will probablyw3extd ñod then the vaccine will bee shipd shortly after that based on the approval. >> the 14th of january
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or the 14th of december?4% >> forgive me. we believe we'll bezv administering within a day of shippiny= the 15th or 16th of december >> and you have the coldl stor nec]essary. 16,000 doses, howñidoes that gg distributed? >> well, we'llq distribute that across all of our delivery sites. we have 12 sitesñ we'll use for administration of the vaccine. we can administer about 1,800 vaccinationsñ+per day.e it will takel us nine to ten ds to work through ourt(initial allotment. >> youo thinke can you have basiç3ett of your workers vaccinated within about ten days are there a significant number pen down the vaccination possibility? >> we have 28,000 employees in
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our system.ç we'll receive 16,575 doses with this initial allocation. those are prioritized for our front-line care glifrivers and patients are those who regularly encounterfá people who are infected so we won't be able to vaccinate all of our employees but certainly we'll be able to cover most of those who arint those >> so just to be clear, are you giving your workers -- are you basically giving the half dose to as many workers aspossible? because it would have todk? spaced several weeks apart or would you give the fullxddose half as many t(eople? >> we've been assured by theñ state that we'll receive i]16,5 vaccinations, so that encompasses both okdoses full allotment originally and
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then plan for 2:w days down the road to deliver the second dose. >> interesting.ñ yeah, it's a difficult one to figureo out iw3assureo not ate1 least fors well thank you, we appreciate it. that does it for "the exchange" today. stick around for "power xlunch. goldman sachs thinking moving operations to florida i'll join tyler mathisen after this quick break
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good afternoon, everybody. along with kelly,i] i'm tyler o mathisen nasdaq in the green despite an all-time high. we will tellw you what ceos are saying about theq recovery.t banks continue to lag but a top analyst says the tech boom will drive gains in the financial center and he'll be here to lay out hi

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