tv Fast Money CNBC December 8, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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rest of the week tomorrow is bank of america ceo brian moynahan bank results are coming up soon. three record closes today, s&p, nasdaq and russell we are out of time "fast money" starts now. i'm in for melissa lee this is "fast money. this is trader lineup. tonight on ast, ready, set, price. we are awaiting pricing information on that big door dash ipo it's expected to be one of the biggest of the year. we will bring you the numbers as soon as they cross the wires plus, banks, metals and cars the three best looking charts to play as we head into 2021. and later on, amped up, howard
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stern is turning up the volume on serioirius xm the deal that sent this stock higher in trading. 11 days in a row the nasdaq 100 etf, that's how many days in a row the qqq has posted gains it is the longest etf this year and sixth day of record highs. so if this is still working where is the nontech cyclical rowcation we have all been waiting for. is there any reason to fight this particular trend and let's start with guy it's the nasdaq. there was a blip in september-october, but nasdaq again. is it at all surprising to you
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>> welcome always great to have you bringing the energy. if i said to you, dom, nigel, what would you say >> i don't think i would say anything >> you don't know. tim knows what to say. >> spinal tap. >> you mentioned 11. that was magic for spinal tap. the rotation is going on just because the nasdaq has been going higher doesn't mean there isn't cyclical rotation. the banks are trading well maybe they are pausing, but i think the rotation is in play. i think some of these nasdaq stocks continue to go higher karen's alphabet has continued to tray outstanding. and this stock might be cheaper here than a few weeks ago when
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it was 15% or 20% lower. so maybe the rotation isn't as in the face as you would make it on or want it to be, it's happening beneath the surface, but that being said, some of the high flying nasdaq is working. >> karen, not just alphabet, but the soup tech names, is it something you still feel carries momentum into the new year >> i am staying long in them alphabet is my biggest position. i still have facebook, microsoft and even some amazon guy brought up an excellent point. it is not either nasdaq or everything else. other things have been working, retails, industrials, things
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like fedex have been working it is not an either-or it seems to be rising tied and all of the votes are up. i am long, always long and looking for stuff to buy to be honest, i haven't found a lot of stuff to buy at this level. >> it is not unfathomable at these record levels. bonawyn, i'm curious on your shopping list. is it time to hold are you still saying there are bargains to be found and momentum those are the ones that will outperform >> there was preconceived notion this had to be a mutually exclusive situation. you have seen it broadening away from the large cap tech. the reason, we have transitioned away from that there is uncertainty
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we wanted revenue growth, safe, stable situations. what you are seeing now is leverage high beta i have been construct i.v. on the builders and a few other names. a few materials and others as well it's really about the waiting to or away from it. i think there is plenty of room for your facebook, amazon. >> this sounds resoundingly bullish. is there anything we should be cautious with stocks at record highs with these levels we are talking about with the 49th or
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50th record close for the nasdaq this year? is it something we say maybe things are overdone or is momentum the trend is your friend right now >> dom, welcome to the big show. it's always a pleasure to have you. i think the things investors should be cautious about are that valuations mean something at times we have had this market overheated, especially in tech look at a stock like amazon that is dead money since july apple, if you were the trader and not the investor, and we talked about those two roles to play but nathan brought this up about ten days ago the apple chart consolidating into the 125, 130 area has rebuilt that base and is an interesting chart. if you look at tech, what has
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been most impressive is that which has led tech, even during the last 11 days, look at the semi and look at the parts well bid. also explosion sure to generic and enterprise that is encouraging for a global spend i think people are expecting into 2021. after nasdaq, it's back into cyclical names yields consolidated a little bit. pulled back on the tenure. the trades built around those two moves, higher on rates and lower on dollar are the trades for the next 11 days karen, well said, guy, well said icebreaker always well said. but you don't have to
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necessarily have one or the other here i would make an argument that since may we have seen rotation into interest race sensitive we have seen this development where the market is deciding whether to buy cyclic caals and they should be >> and this cloud technology tim, great points and that's the sec w segue into our next segment. p let's bring in mike wilson from morgan stanley. always great to have you i have to say with an 11-day winning streak and nasdaq qqqs i fell like this is ready for a
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pause. what drives the pullback >> good evening and thanks for having me. calling a correction in a bull market is a dangerous game we did that twice this fall. came out well. less conviction on a pullback this time because it's seasonal. as your panel suggested, it's a bull market. everything is working together it's not an either-or. we have been working on small cap area and it has performed dramatically since the vaccine announcement as it should. is it just taking a breather until the next leg up? we think it will we think the cyclical parts of the market should dominate into next year relative to defensive areas.
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expensive growth stocks will be -- >> end of cycle, protected areas like electricals, those have underperformed for most of the year since this rally began in march. that makes sense when there is so much liquidity it may just continue to meld higher >> how much in your mind, how much optimism or future positive is reflected in the current market as we see it today? i ask only because we know that the market is a discounting mechanism. we know that the small cap performance, these noncyclicals,
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recovery, that we get a covid vaccine, how much more do we need to keep it going to the outside? >> the real action is at the value line this is typical coming out of a recession, you want to look at the average stock. that's where the leverage will be greater if you look at the numbers we have it in our framework, we think there is about 10% upside for the s&p 500 based on what we think will be forward earnings going up about 20% and valuation down about 10%
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there will likely be some huge winners. i would suggest winners will be these areas that benefit from reopening. they have been shut down or there has been operating leverage the losers will be those vulnerable to compression from higher lathes which we think will happen or businesses from payback during the lockdown. so that's how we are thinking about it bullmarket as we go into 2021 for sure. >> in the '90s, peter gerhardt was at the forefront of these knock in and knock out trades.
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your bear case in the s&p 500 was 3750 i think there is a chance you see both of those levels next year what do you think about that >> i think that's a good point, guy. it's similar to 2018 we made that call, both bull and bear and achieved that to your point, whether it's around currency or just volatility of outcomes i could easily see the first quarter being a scarier time as things slow down maybe there is a rate shock as the market starts to price in some of the good stuff like additional fiscal stimulus and maybe more by the vaccine. you could have volatility in rates in particular that could cause the kind of swing you are talking about. but the bottom line is that you
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need to keep your head on a swivel, take advantage of these swings and opportunity if you haven't had that in the last 30 days, i wouldn't get kma sent you are going to step it up 11 days in a row that's probably not what is going to happen in the next 6 or 12 months. it will likely be bigger swings. >> thank you very much have a nice evening. it seems as though mike is saying this is going to be a stock tickers market it's a cliche we have heard before where do you find value given what he laid out and setting yourself up in your book in 2021 i think you find value in volatility we have seen this vix come back towards the 20 level keep in mind we were just around
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40 i think there is value in terms of adding protection or expressing your view via options. secondly, there is the epicenter names. a lot of industrials and materials are already trading at robust valuations, but the sectors that have been on the brink of being impaired. i think that's where the value is i just have a hard time putting on my scuba gear and diving to the bottom to put that on when there are so many other areas working. when i risk my returns, i find them less attractive, but in terms of upside, i think that's where the value is >> we are getting fresh comments from jamie dimon he is speaking at the goldman sachs services conference. listen to what he just said about treasuries >> i think there may be a bubble
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in the small part of the stock market, not all of it. i would not buy treasuries at these rates i wouldn't touch them with a ten-foot pole. i wouldn't be a buyer of these at these rates but we have no choice. >> he doesn't want to buy them but says there is no choice. how does that influence the overall macrofor market. >> idon't know if that means the fed buying them. he thinks rates should be higher margins would be fatter. that is good bonawyn talked about epicenter banks were annihilated looking for value, banks are at
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the top of the heat. and i love jamie dimon he is at the top of the heap >> if interest rates really are -- they are coming off some multihigh levels we have seen. they just haven't broken out yet. is this a market still constructive for equities and everything else if rates hold where they are >> well, i think karen really does love jamie dimon by the way. i think you have a case where the interest rate dynamic is something very, very important absolutely you are buying banks. it's hard for me like a lot of ,
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cooking for the next part of our show coming up, the king of shock jock radio signed a big new deal. how much is howard stern pulling in a year? start writing down your guesses because we will have those details. but first, pricing information on that big door dash ipo. it's expected to be one of the biggest debuts this year much more coming up when "fast money" returns after this break.
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dash ipo details they are expected to price its shares at any time this evening. let's get out to leslie with more details on door dash. just how big could this ipo get, leslie >> it could be one of the biggest ipo's this year. currently snowflake is the largest. but this one is looking at $1.3 billion. i am told that the call started about 15 minutes that's where they hunker down and decide the price there is a little less art and more science involved in these discussions. they use an auction-like platform that is supposed to give them a more data driven sense of demanding as opposed to the traditional way which is more hands on between the bankers and
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sales investors. it is thinking it my bring a fuld diluted value of 36 billion. but investors may be willing to play a premium since door dash has been able to quadruple, al they they had losses in the third quarter. >> leslie, we will come back to you for those details. panel, let's trade it. you can't trade it yet, but you can feel what is happening with the ipo market the renaissance ipoetf is up
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115% on today's basis. that kind of tells you guy, does this tell you that the markets are still healthy, the fact that there is robust demanding for public offerings >> i think it would. half empty would say everybody going to market at the same time is a sign that things are sort of topping out i don't know the answer to that. but what i do think i know the answer to is how you play it last night we mentioned nasdaq in terms of a final trade. equity volumes are up 55% year over year. that's a stock that on valuation basis is probably pretty reasonable so dom, to me it's with the nasdaq >> if you look at some of these exchange operators as a way to
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capitalize tim seymour, does it mean that by buying some of these types of stocks, exchange operators, it means or implies that 2021 is still supposed to be constructive >> what is going to change here. so, yes, i do think that $146 billion this year j.p. morgan and goldman, nothing is going to change liquidity is free. doordash was a billion and a half a year and a half ago
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b bon. >> bonawyn, is the ip ofrp market still something you feel is a good overall market >> you almost lost me with the jordache conversation. i thought i was in and then i had one foot in and one out. to answer your question, morgan stanley, if you lock at traditional banking as karen pointed to and the e traded retail side, that is another way to play this where you have diversified revenue streams and more visible ref newspaper streams. that is another name i would mention. >> we saw headlines earlier today that they are getting ipo
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down the line for robin hoods. we are just getting started. here is what is coming up next new year, new stock picks? a stock technician joins us to give us his three best ideas for 2021 you can't afford to miss this. plus we will dive into the options pits with a look at what to expect. that and a lot more when "fast money" returns (♪ )
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our next guest says they are some of the best looking charts in the market right now. chris, take it away. >> thanks for having me. i want to talk about three names. there are 18 trading days left in the year. what are going to be the stocks that drive returns next year financials is where we want to begin. morgan stanley really has just broken out from this three-year rain the last four weeks, the momentum behind this has been tremendous when when you get momentum surges, this is bearish. look at 57, 58, 59 as support going forward. what gets us interested about morgan stanley is the long-term picture.
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no one has made money in 20 years. in peaked in 2020. this is a leader next year i think tim might like this one. this is rio, another name that has been the last two or three years in a range the big broeakout was 65. let's take a step back and look at the 20-year chart they peaked in 2008 and nobody has made any money for 12 years. it has been a decade long bear market bear market is over. weak dollar, copper up lastly, only 18 months since uber came, may of 2019 we think the stock is timely
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it just broke out of this big phase. it reclaimed the level it first traded at in may of 2019 we think this is the leader next year banks, materials, cars, that's how we want to play the setup. >> thanks very much. always good to have you here and get the charts in play karen, what is your favorite charts out of the ones chris just laid out, banks, cars, material i am looking at your pup in the bank, he or she looks like he is having a good time >> i hope he is not doing anything embarrassing. i don't have the return. i like the morgan stanley story. the evolution of the business has been tremendous and yet the valgs hasn't changed that much i like morgan stanley.
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i think it falls into the value bucket and i am a believer that we will see that value creation next year. >> guy, what are you thinking? >> first of all, tim has been on this i will let him speak but morgan stanley i agree dan nathan a month or two ago said it was one of the best looking charts he saw. we said above 57 this is off to the races and that's exactly what has happened. i hear what chris is saying over the last 20 years, but over the last 20 weeks this has been a monster and i think it will continue to trade higher >> tim seymour >> iron ore prices are nine-year highs and china is reaccelerating bromance is back this is a 20-year story.
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i was a heavy investor as an em guy. this is exciting to see. it was a bad trade more importantly, steel prices going higher up 70% in the last three weeks those are the trades that still excite me. >> base metals like copper out there. we will be back with more. we just went through some of the top picks for 2021 head over to cnbc.com/pro. and coming up, shares getting a boost as howard stern signed a mega contract details on that deal plus, guys, dogs are howling usout the latest chewy report.
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welcome back to "fast money. tesla pulling back from all time highs as the company announces plans to sell $5 billion worth of its own stock, but that isn't the only thing on the move let's get out to phil lebeau >>ie l >> elon musk is planning to move from california to texas today when he was talking on the ceo counse ceo council, he was asked about it, and he said, yes, i have moved. why move california is not a friendly place when it comes to business. he says it's a great state but has problems >> they do tend to get complacent and entitled and don't win any more
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california was been winning for a long time and i think they are taking it for granted a little bit. >> he also said the bay area, silicon valley has impact on the climate around the country and world. in texas they have the starship business as well as the new giga factory, giga-texas is how they refer to it. that's when they plan to roll out the first cyber truck. elon musk making it clear he will be spending his time, and his residence is now in texas. >> thanks for that not just on elon musk, but tesla >> last year tesla was worth
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about $5 billion it closed around 606 billion leading to year-to-date gains of 677% and one-year returns of 867% do you want to buy tesla >> this is an absolute freight train g train. beg gun to my head, i am buying it, certainly not shorting it. >> karen, you said that you wouldn't be surprised if tesla didn't sell some stock $5 billion, it turns out to be less than 1% of its market
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value. is this tesla stock one you would want to own ahead of its inclusion in the s&p 500 >> just the idea that this is a drop in the bucket, and the idea of them being able to raise it like that. i didn't like it points ago, but they are doing the right thing to fulfill that giant bid. good for them. >> big deal for them, $5 billion almost a drop in a bucket. coming up, shares of chewy, company on the move after the company's latest report. investors chasing their tails --
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we have an earnings alert on chewy. they reported a smaller loss than expected in the quarter and gave strong guidance for the current quarter. shares did hit an all time high during the regular trading day they are off just marginally in the after hours session. i want to ask something of guy right now. chewy.com is not one of the stocks i closely associate with you -- i think more of karen because i see her dog and i love her dog -- but are you still a buyer of this kind of stock? >> we have talked about this for a while. i am shocked the stock didn't give back the gains. it made an all-time high i will tell you that i am still
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the dinosaur that still drives to the local pet store and picks up the 40-pound dog food and hauls it over the shoulder i am not their target audience but i think you have to pull the rip cord and take profits. >> karen, a quick comment from you? is this pet trade for real it is said that we will spend as americans $99billion on pets we will spend $99 per pet this year during the holiday season >> the pet trade, the underlying i think still is intact. so many people got pets during the pandemic but the valuation is out of it
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for me >> she is not a buyer. and mike spotted some unusual activity that could signal this stock is headed higher what did you see >> you are talking about a monster earnings, that's what the options market is expecting, a monster move the options market is implying the stock could move $60 higher or lower by the end of the week, less than the 15% reported over the last eight quarters. trading for about $12.75 buyers were risking less than 5% you will note that a couple of analysts have raced their price target
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and j.p. morgan also raised their price target earlier this month. there is bullish activity and the options market is betting that the rally could continue. >> thank you, mike it could be a big deal bonawyn, this has been a home improvement type trade that is a beneficiary during the pandemic. it is not the same as home depot. what does that tell you about the type of development during the pandemic >> i think everyone has spoken to this. the trades playing this, calls as opposed to outlaying the cash, owning the shares. i think it implied volatility as a touch higher, but i would rather risk a touch of a percent
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rather than an area event around earnings >> thanks very much, guys. for more options action, tune in for the full show friday at 5:30 eastern time here on cnbc a news alert on stimulus talks in washington, d.c good afternoon >> treasury secretary steven mnuchin said he has presented nancy pelosi with a new $916 billion proposal for coronavirus relief it would include money for state and local governments as well as liability which michigan mcconnell suggested they cut out altogether he said they would fund this with $140 billion in unused
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