tv Fast Money CNBC December 9, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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>> also keep an eye on the pound overnight. boris johnson meeting. perhaps there could be positive news out of that meeting the pound is up about half a percent so maybe positive expected we are out of time here. thanks for watching "closing bell." "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee this is "fast money. door dash slaying in its public debut. we will bring you the numbers as soon as they cross and starbucks in the move after hours. and later hackers take aim, fireeye hit by a highly sophisticated attack by a foreign government
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is anything safe >> nasdaq fell for its worst day since october 30th look at some of the big moves for big tech amazon and apple falling more than 2%. is today a pullback or the start of something bigger. tim, i will start with you >> the pullback 14% in eight or nine sessions, we came back to set new highs. none of this should be taken as an alarm semis were down 3% over the last four or five sessions. the door dash and air b & b ring a bell of sorts. zoom, peleton, you name it, they
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were down significantly. it seemed like everybody took a day off while everybody looked at an absurd, positive for dopoe /* /- for door dash >> i wasn't here yesterday, but i was watching watching y'all all of the time the apparent frothiess in the ipo market i won't cast judgment whether it's froth or ringing the bell >> first of all, i know you weren't watching and i know if i asked you if you knew who nigel was, would you have no idea, like dom that's pathetic.
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kudos to steve grasso, but i think you are looking at where to get in or get back in specifically with a name like alphabet a month and a half ago that was a historic quarter for them. i think you could make an argument that alphabet at these prices is cheaper than at basis a couple months ago. so this is a shot to get names that got away from you >> as somebody who got out of names, would you get back in the nasdaq tumbled about 2%. and the russell and s&p. it's really technology feeling the pain >> this is not a blip i am looking for. i am looking for the
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outperformance of tech over value. it has bns going on for about ten years, maybe longer. so i am looking for an outperformance for the next year or so, not a week or so. what was it today? you mentioned a lot of good reasons. j.p. morgan said that tesla is overvalued if we look at the antitrust with zoom that's another reason. diversified names that i have been in. look for things that are levered to europe, not just here i believe the reflation trade is
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on and i think the democrats are looking to take over the senate. if that happens, everything will sell off >> i think we are having problems with steve grasso pete, i know you like a deal you shop at t.j. max and all of these places where is the momentum in a market where technology is going sideways or hitting a ceiling. >> you are right technology has hit what i think is a healthy pause biotech has been at all time highs. semis have made an all time high there are a lot of areas we have seen for four, five, six weeks,
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financials, industrials, there are a lot of areas basic materials. when you look at these, you see a swift move to the upside i think it's healthy to see diversion away from certain areas. tim is right the pressure on zoom, tesla and then throwing in some of the tech names on the big pulloff as well from where they just had ran to, a great example is apple. i like apple i think they have done a lot of things the right way started moving toward the upside, but taking a healthy pause makes sense. there are still areas of the market that work very, very well i think you have to be very selective when it comes to technology those overgrowth names that have absolutely no pes because there is no p -- ore rather, those
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are the ones i would be staying away from, those high flyers >> tim, do you have a question >> pete, were you staying away from the beach it looks like you were doing the halftime report from the beach and were you wearing sunscreen >> it is a wonderful day here. i am in florida. i am loving it i just had dolphins jumping behind me, so you might see them while we are doing the show. there was a family of them >> we will be watching guy is a big dolphin lover started with "flipper" way back when some of those high sell-off names like zoom and then they see the amazing performance of a door dash. what does that tell you about the market we are in. >> you can make an argument the
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reason there was the big sell-off in zoom was maybe there was money going off into door dash that's one explanation amongst many door dash is similar to snowflake. i can wax poetic about how poorly i think this is priced and what a disservice they are doing to the retail group. tim said it and steve said it as well a new york city has gotten over its skis it doesn't mean they are not investable or tradeable. google i will go back to out of all of the quarters i have seen doing this show for a long time, that has to be a top five quarter when things normalize and people realize the balance sheet they have and the numbers they can pull, alphabet is probably one
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of those names -- we will talk about the next 2 trillion club i think that could be one of the names in it. >> pete, what is top on your list of names to buy >> some of the quality names pulling back we are seeing positive momentum in a variety of these things, microsoft, or apple or others. even microsoft had a pullback. looking at apple, google, facebook as well because of the issues i still like salesforce but it starts to feel more lofty all of the time as i look at some of these names because some of them have not pulled back quite enough i am waiting for that opportunity. >> we are waiting for details on
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a a airb & b >> i have been told that they have been on a call about where they think the ipo price should be it should surprise above expectations i am told the big jump in door dash is causing -- so now they are going to try higher for air bnb. it is more than double where the company was valued in april as the pandemic caused a huge drop in their bookings. but in the third quarter it
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really bounced back, but it is still shy of pre-covid levels. air bnb plans to list on nasdaq under air bnb. >> door dash is up 85% from its ipo price. but after such a big jump is it too late for retail investors to get in apparently not look at this from renaissance capital. the average day one pop is 30%, but they have gained more than 25% after the first day pop for a total return of nearly 70%
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grasso, in years past we have talked about the retail investor if you had bought after the first day, would you have been in the money >> what happens, when you have a market at 13% and going off a cliff, in any environment people try to perform a lot of these ipos are kwaquas risky. but when you look at air bnb, people are not going to go to the same vacations they have once before. i think this one has a better shot making it than it would have prepandemic >> it is a perfect time for a door dash or air bnb to go
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public guy, are there one or two ipos you would consider buying at this point >> snowflake made no sense to me, but it is become more apparent it is interesting i think door dash will be an interesting company as well. i do think it was peleton -- if it was last year, i apologize. they have had a lot of arrows shot at them and seem to be fending them off well. >> tim >> i bought three weeks ago because it was a smaller and powerful and government based.
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but as you can see that has been widening out i think in the enterprise and power of their platform, pltr, relative to where shooftware is trading, i think it has relative value. >> coming up after hours, starbucks is on the move what got this stock percolating. and two wall street titans with two completely different takes on where apple is headed (♪ )
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online revenue growth between 8 and 10%. the company adding in 2023 they expect to see sales increase 5% globally annually. in china between 2 and 3%. both of those targets are updated to a higher range. its global store portfolio expected to go up 6% in 2022 this is a bit lower than the company had further given out. it said it is rolling out oat milk many are a fan of those plant based milk
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consumer preferences continue to change and the ceo said congress needs to take action he said starbucks is weathering the storm and is positive about what the company will be able to do, but he acknowledged that many smaller and independent companies are struggling right now. >> they sure are a lot in that. thanks, kate oat milk updates tim seymour, i know you are excited about that what do you like most? >> guy is the almond milk guy. i am pretty standard on my coffee if you listen to numbers, the fact they are going to grow their stories to 70% to 55,000 units by 2030 and talking about g & a reductions and showing some of the efficiencies coming from the royalty program and
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curbside it is a well run company he came with the mojo of being the chief operating guy. their ticket prices and what they are getting on ticket size is extraordinary 4 to 5% global, comp out the next few years, while growing their footprint is exciting. i thought we got a lot here. >> guy, i know you are an extra foam guy with almond milk, but now you can try oat milk >> i think they are deserved of the valuation they get that has been a knock against starbucks for a while, their valuation. i don't think that's a problem
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after hours earnings and lowe's up after the ceo spoke at an investors meeting saying the best days are still ahead. and mortgage rates hit another all time low that's the 14th time that has happened this year tim, the two-man, seymour. i am just reading. >> some might be proud of that nickname the home improvements are the names that keep on giving. with lowe's you had trading weakness that was even started with some same store sales comps were not great the fact of the trends they have seen, and their investment into
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technology and infrastruck tour still trades at a depot. i don't think the trade is decidedly in favor of lowes. i think it's an exciting time with home loan rates at zero but this is not a stay at home trade. it's a trade with -- yesterday on the call, they said buyers are getting sticker shock. >> i think these have run too far. i was a fan of the home builders even though they are a
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quasivalue place for me, they are too domestic i do like d.r. horton because they are a speck builder so when no others have supply, they have supply but rates will be rising but people flee the city areas and apartments and they wound up buying second homes or homes that were outside the city centers. i think it was a large pull forward. you lock at every one of these charts they have all rolled over. i wouldn't be jumping in i think people have got their big bang for their buck. i wouldn't be investing currently. >> they buy oversized sofas and armoires and hire contractors to fix the roof that's what we saw
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>> it will be interesting what the market does with the restoration hardware quota sales were 26% to offset that. suggests to me you will see continued home improvement but people will not be able to buy those 11-foot sofas at $11,000 a pop. if you would indulge me in a poem -- quick, lowes or home depot >> i have to go with home depot. i think lowe's has made up the ground they have been missing for a while. i think they are doing
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everything right i think at this point home depot is the one to own. i think lowe's was the one a couple weeks ago, but now it is home depot >> the next guest is asking if the fed is propping up the home market peter, you wrote about this in your note this morning we know the fed buys $40 billion in mortgage backed loans a month even with the interest rates so low. >> we are seeing annual home price increases of about 7%. more than four times so we are seeing home price inflation being juiced by low mortgage rates but we are at the point where the aggressive rise in prices is offsetting the benefit of lower mortgage rates
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so there is really no win any more to the low mortgage rate. and while it's lower your monthly payments, it's offset by the higher principal you have to pay. in addition, the first time buyer saving up for that first time payment, you annualize that at 7%, there is a higher down payment needed fann fann fannie mae, u.s. treasury blew out. but now that we are at inflating home prices, we are at risk of hurting the market rather than helping it, particularly with the first time home buyer. >> how worried should we be? doesn't this ultimately correct itself buyers don't keep buying homes at 7% a year
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they cap it. doesn't this stuff correct >> i hope that's the case. you look over the next five years in housing and millennials are the biggest demographic that will buy the housing market. we have to make it affordable for them to buy. i would argue that a healthier housing market would equate to a slower pace. the fed, with these price increases, potentially pricing out the first time buyer, and saying buyers are getting sticker shock, the fed has to tell us why they think it is a benefit to the market to buy $40 billion a month.
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that scares off private buyers and it breaks the market in terms of functionality >> peter, it's the same as the fed buying high grade corporate debt why are they buying apple debt i am totally with you. what is the next asset they are targeting? we are creating the mother of all housing bubbles. >> we will know for sure next week there is chatter that at least on the treasury side, that they are going to extend out the maturity of their buyback calling. but if they leave it as is, maybe that's their first sign that we have done enough what we are doing now is a covid world. next year we hope is a post
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covid world with the vaccine how will the fed substantiate what they are doing this year. we hope to transition a treasury portfolio only and the first hint of trouble, they pull back and dominate more now than in 2010 >> what are the odds that the fed doesn't expand the amount of assets purchased but shift to longer dated treasuries. >> i think you hit it on the head i think that's what they will likely do if they do something they are not going to be increasing the size of it, but recalibrating it is definitely a possibility as you speculate >> peter, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thanks, melissa
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>> i know we use the term fairly loosely, but is this a bubble that homeowners have more equity than the past housing bubble to the point where they wouldn't be in trouble if rates went higher? >> it's interesting. i am not going that far, but the fed is creating a bubble across many things. look at bitcoin. there was a secondary price by micro strategists and the sole purpose was to buy crypto currency if that is not a sign of excess, i am not sure what is. i am not suggesting we are in a housing bubble, but we are damn close. >> what happened to the housing trade broadly, whether furniture sellers, hardware stores, et cetera, if the fed steps away and allows mortgage rates to go
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up >> without question, all of these stocks come in if you look at lennar's -- all of these are up 20 to 40%. even home depot and lowe's when we were in the throes of covid, they were lined up. let me give you one caveat every housing recovery happens in a rate environment. i think a lot of these stocks come in dramatically >> coming up, thinking of giving the gift of at least sure? we will break down that trade. and we have another fast pitch on deck. our next guest says you oushld buy this stock in bulk that's a clue.
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and kate is back for another fast pitch kate, take it away >> thank you, mel. thank you, everyone. i am a big fan of costco it is not a traditional retailer it doesn't make money from the products it makes money from the fees it charges. amazon is not a threat for costco it can co-exist with costco. those who have membership also have memberships with amazon prime. it doesn't have to make money like other grocery stories
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wider aisles is great in a covid world. they honored their commitments to vendors and costco has lagged the retail etf this year so there is room to grow. t >> tim, do you have a question >> i am a believer in this big box space. you are not concerned about amazon, buthow about walmart who also has walmart plus and i think can dominate >> i think walmart and costco together have been such a great boon for america they keep prices down. how they do it i don't understand they have both done a great job of keeping prices down for everyone costco can co-exist with walmart
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and has for years. >> kate, we are going to vote. thanks for joining us. are you buying kate's pitch on costco you are a bulk kind of guy >> can you read my board >> faster than lightning no one is smarter than he. >> that is what it says. and pete knows what that is because he mentioned the dolphins in the background and flipper is one of my favorite shows. good for kate. i have liked it for a while. yes. >> i am not surprised you know the words to the flipper song. >> i think it is a gutsy pitch
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going into the numbers tomorrow, but it makes total sense my only concern is have they pulled so much forward, had the advantage they have had for a while to bring this stock to where it is right now in terms of pe? but i love the name and think they tip to have strength and work with the wall marmarts and targets of the world so i think there is more upside >> you are on board with kate. >> yes >> tim >> on board but an extra large size of poetry books at costco i am a buyer there is a rerating going on and they are getting a multiple that is somewhat of a digital multiple i am a buyer >> steve
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>> clean sweep i think kate nailed it when she talked about the renewal rates the membership fee is what she said, an annuity the renewal rates are above 90%. the stock has been bouncing off its 50 day moving average. i would be a little more frightened, but it's trading around average, so i like it >> so this is a rare occurrence. the desk has agreed. they like kate's pitch on costco >> do you? vote in our twitter poll
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for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin welcome back to "fast money. shares of lulu lemon dropped today. bonawyn? >> look at lulu heading into earnings if you look, it implies about 8%
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move between now and friday compared to about 5% on average earnings the trade that stuck out to me was 1,000. your break will be at 4:35 or 112% of current cost this line is more likely to be what we would see around earnings >> pete, how do you like lulu? >> love it i love everything they are doing, e-commerce, men's side, all of it. this is a phenomenal company the pe looks stretched, but when there is the kind of growth as lulu, i look at nikes of the world. they are not in competition, but
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they are when it comes to some of the leisure wear including staying at home, the clothing people are buying. i think this will be a big quarter for lulu >> guy, what happens when people go back to work and wear proper pants? what happens when one goes back to the office. and even if you stay at home, how many pairs of yoga pants can you possibly own >> imparti am partial to their . i don't wear their pants but i think it will be wearing lulu lemon pants to work and my daughter sells her used lulu lemon pants at one of those
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sites you pack them up and sell them and she gets nearly what she paid for them. everyone loves lulu lemon. >> that should be enough right there. options action is friday at 5:30 the apple battle and later, "caddyshack" 2. everyone loves cream filled pastries i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn
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welcome back to "fast money. you have heard of the great battles throughout history the greeks versus the trojans, the hat fields versus the mccoys, the yankees versus the red sox. but now there is a new battle breaking out goldman sachs versus morgan stanley, two titans with two different takes on the world's biggest company.
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let's get back to melissa lee and the fast money traders >> you just heard the scary voice setting up this segment. goldman sachs and on the other side is morgan stanley who is getting it right? the analyst's interpretation of one data point, saying the long lead time. meaning they are going to be selling 11s over 12s whereas morgan stanley says there is demand for this product. >> it is not only the demand, but when i read through, kate
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was talking about services and products, like the air pod max they have got that is $549 when we look at this, the fact she is focused on that particular area because of the margins and the reiteration of a sell on a stock just coming off the all time highs katie has been right and more consistent and i think she's focusing on the right thing. we all know that the 5g phone will be something that is a nice piece, the addition apple needs. but on the other side she and they are focusing on where are they getting the money and margins. i think that's the most important question and where the growth is. i still lean towards katie i know she has a price target well above where the stock is here >> it is rare to have
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accelerating on any stock, let alone one of the most beloved stocks in the universe where are you, steve >> i am going with goldman think about how much money has been spent away from the vacation world, all of the things we do away from our house. the further and deeper we get into the rollouts of the vaccine, we are going to see different behavior take effect i think people will be selling less money here. i love the services, we are honing in on $54 billion with apple. everyone loves the apple stock people look at it as a value play and growth play it can't be both i think you will see tech selling spill out to the value tech in apple and i do think it's heading down. i don't know about goldman's
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breaking news. we have just learned that a spacex rocket, unmanned, appears to have exploded upon launching. again, it was unmanned we are working to get more information. once we get that, we will get it to you this is a hard left turn, i will warn you of that twinkies, hostess shares going up 35% guy, when is the last time you had a twinkie? >> i'm eating a twinkie.
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do you see that? not only am i eating a twinkie i also went out and got some ding-dongs which i love and my personal favorite, the ho-hos. do you know the irony of that? >> i don't know, so tell us. >> they are actual lit illegal in nevada. go figure. >> when i saw that buy, i was shocked. i had never thought about that i like the company so i decided to buy the calls >> let's get to kate's call on costco kate is in luck. more than 65% of those voting was in favorite of costco. >> final call?
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>> buy walmart >> steve >> bft >> pete? >> i am going with black zone. >> guy phillips 66, leveraged there is a bull market some where, i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramer america. i want to help you make money, my job is not only to entertain but to educate and tweet call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. holy cow, is this market one
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