>> taking flight this year both on pandemics andbecause we hav this new younger, high energy investor in the market right now. >> thanks for joining us today we are out of time "fast money" starts now. i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's lineup -- disney shares surging nearly 14% today to an all time high. a simple question, should you buy into this magical move the news that sent the stock up and today's technical take disney telling investors they

expect between 230 and 260 million subscribers in the next three years. that's on top of the 86 million they already have. those are the fundamentals carter, you heard that music after today's record run, is this the time for investors to let it go? >> sure. before we look at the charts, it's about who you are in the market there have been plenty of instances where disney has gapped up like this. in 2019 the q 1 move was up. and on vaccine day jumped about 12 but after it jumps it is pretty sideways on a week by week basis. let's look at charts the first is a breakout. everyone agrees it is well recognized, a stock that moves

above a well-defined range second chart, look where the stock charpd to the pends at the internal trend line for the last year and a half literally stopped on that line it peaked at 11:00 and went sideways the rest of the day two more charts. where are we in relation to the 150-day moving average you could use 200. but if you look at this chart disney is trading 139% above its 150-day. and here you can see the relationship of price with average price over 150 days. so in the history of the stock going back to 1970s it has only traded farther above the 150

moving average one other time. long-term this is hugely bullish. tactically, let it go. >> so he says take profits >> how would you take disney >> long-term fundamental they will have more movies streaming online and they have tremendous leverage in the platform the parks will reopen, cruise ships will reopen. they will take what they did on disney plus and take it to all of those places, but that takes time and you priced in this surprise where it is trading now and this stock was 78.5 or so so it has had a tremendous run

for me i think you get a better entry on this. it isn't that i don't like disney i think it will be better coming out of the pandemic, but i think you get a better entry >> so you like it long-term, but you think there could be a pullback shorter term. i think part is that this is a premium product that people will pay for. there is still executive chairman bob eiger around which is a change in how the business considers content. >> in the old days you had a lot of customers and big brand and a lot of action. there was a firm called aol and

the stock ran up on potential. we saw where that happened i love carter's technical analysis, but my grandmother told me use common sense the peo ratio is at 87 there is more forward looking. look what happened, sub growth cooled off for the next three months this covid level growth rate is not feasible for the long-term with disney. netflix shows more content equals more subscribers, but we are shifting attention away. this is not a tech company the media only makes up 40% of the revenue. parks make up 23%. with the holiday season, let's use our common sense there is no fed overseas to save

them let's stay away from disney. 175 bucks, no way. we have to survive this recession that is coming >> i would never argue with james mcdonald's grandmother or anybody else but we have to put a footnote or asterisk and that is that he is a bigger bear than brian kelly ever was with a bear suit zipped up to the top. >> he was the one that shined the light on disney back in october saying they should cut back on their $3 billion in dividend and put it towards content and streaming. disney was the king of content now will they be the king of streaming? i agree.

so i am back in at the retracement at 148 if you bought it today, you will be dispinted this is my three-day rule. never buy it on an outsized move like this, wait for it to hold three days and number two -- to james's point, i think they are going to expand that multiple all you have to do is close the gap. you don't need a net flicks multiple you just need to expand. i own the streaming service, i own netflix and apple streaming service. that's what most people will do. this is a strategic story

change i think you are okay to buy this at the 150 level in a couple days >> how does this news change the landscape of streaming we just heard from a conference, at&t ceo about hbo max that they added 4 million users in less than three months. peacock which is a streaming service of nbc said it added 26 million, which is a little different. but disney saying what they will spend on content, this is like an arms race it will force others to up their content spend. and how do you factor in whether those stocks are the play? >> generally speaking i don't like to invest in something that is going to have this competitive war.

we are at the really early stage of this. disney has the competitive advantage in that they can leverage with its parks and ecosystem. that being said there is a ton of money being thrown at content. so if you made a ton of money on disney, buying at 78 or 80 and selling here, good for you but real estate, those making the content will be making a ton of money >> a third derivative play james mcdonald, how do you think this shakes things up? >> i think spikes in users and revenue are fickle when something new or better comes out content weiise, it's easy to go to your phone and hit cancel this is a fickle space, tech space with so much upside

potential. yes, disney is a content king, but this is not something they can quickly defend when someone else comes out i don't like the downside with this i think the digital marketplace is just evolving they are pushing individual product preferences to devices there are so many ways it can go i don't like the subscribe story. covid drove everybody to netflix and when the stock went up, as soon as that abates, the stock comes back down. so for an investor, it is too risky at this level. >> nothing practically from the notion that this is a reopening trade which we are yet to see take effect on disney. with that said, don't you kneel

like maybe there is another boost to come once the reopening trade catches fire >> absolutely. disney parks is a 16.5 billion dollar revenue generator if you have the option on it never reopening, you are losing money. that's dk. we are going to reopen and the vaccine is $16 billion by 2024 in content they are just trying to replace what they are losing on parks. i am not going to a park any time soon, but there are loyal people up and down those parks every year i think that number will come

back on in large force there are a lot of people dying to get out of the house and do something. disney and those parks will close that 16.5 revenue gap they have had quickly we have a wrapup of disney on our website so head over and check it out one semiconductor stock getting fried after news out of apple. knocked $13 billion off the market cap of this stock details when we return this is the new iphone 12 pro with 5g! and it's on at&t, the fastest nationwide 5g network. now, new and existing customers can get our best deal. really?!

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welcome back to "fast money. the countdown is on. 13 days until christmas, but new data shows this season may not be so jolly. nearly 40% of americans plan top spend less money on gifts this holiday season compared to last year big reason why lost income or wages

retailers have been acting like there is no problem on the horizon. >> the failure to pass a stimulus means less spending consumer expenditures have shown us that. they have dropped 10.5% in q2. we forecast a similar drop as people face similar hardships as when the virus first hit us. shopping will be almost 100% online and his who are cal volumes are infeasible this will make things harder for retail sales personal income is down. savings rate two times the money people have, they are holding onto it. and like the survey showed -- sounds like a game line -- like your survey showed, it is unlikely we will see holiday

sales go up. cyber sales were up, but they were projected to be much higher than that. sales i think will be weak >> i think it was "family feud" survey said -- grasso, in terms of shipping, already we know that direct to consumer has lower margin typically than if you go into a store. margins will get eroded more with surcharges. >> he makes a lot of great points and i agree with him. if you think about what lockdown 2.0 could look like, it could benefit the same retailers, costcos, walmarts, targets and amazons, but you also remember those department store plays that were falling into an abyss and then rallied back pretty aggressively i think you are going to see the

same sort of thing happen. you will see a lot of these retailers flatten out, roll over, but i think you are getting closer i know there is a lot of bad news out there now and my heart goes out to all of the people suffering and this is a terrible environment, but we are getting closer to the end, knock on wood so i think a lot of these names are due for a bounce people are spending less, but let's hope stimulus checks go out in the mail and save families from more hardship. >> let's hope congress get their acts together. people will guy stuff online to give to other people who will benefit >> i have to agree with the other two guys stay away from your mall based retailers much you want to go back into some of the more

directed consumer. so like amazon that has traded in a range i would look for a catalyst on that and breakout of that range before i got into that but we have a low savings rate, stimulus that seems to be stalled indefinitely which i have no idea why it is since james brought up his grandmother, one of the finest analysts i know is my nephew, best jeans dungarees, sales are down >> and news. who is getting booted from the s&p to make room for tesla >> they say they will replace

aiv when tesla is added. they will join the consumer discretionary sector aiv is getting kicked out. back to you. >> so now we know. keep in mind this swap takes effect at the start of business december 21. we have seen a massive run in shares of tesla. steve grasso, where do you stand on what this stock has done on news it will be included >> this was sort of a no-brainer when you look at these things, look back and wish you would have bought them on the leadup into being added to an index because all of the index players have to be added as well they don't wait for the final day. then you get the j.p. morgan calls out on tesla that it's

overvalued, so that keeps the buyers at bay, but this stock, what it has done over the years should keep the short seller on its heel never bet on elon musk just when you think the stock is fading, it comes back. i am not in the stock right now, but i would not bet against the musk >> it is not just the robin hood traders, but the esg funneleds looking for a home >> it is not just esg. it is the future in so many ways i loved tesla two years ago, not because of the cars but because of the intellectual property we will see the trucking industry transform from the autonomous vehicle we will see batteries optimized.

and the early adoption of passenger vehicles has given them credit on the street, but there are so many pockets of value that can grow and make our grandchildren breathe easier autonomous trucking and more, it is good news long-term oracle just announcing it is moving its headquarters from silicon valley to austin, texas. governor abbott is on the phone. >> glad to be with you >> it was tesla's cyber truck

factory and elon musk is moving to texas what are you doing a lot of tax breaks? >> this is big news, but you talked about elon musk and tesla, we just had the announcement about hewlitt packard enterprise -- also -- formal opening of the charles schwab headquarters moved to the dallas area. this has turned into a tidal wave for some they have had operations here and enjoyed them there was a campus in austin texas for several years. zephyr and i have had a good relationship, but moving headquarters is more than one relationship they are looking for a state that gives them the independence, autonomy and

freedom to make their own choices, those are words used by people like elon musk. he and i talk on a weekly basis. he loves the freedom whether tesla or spacex. >> i'm sure he loves the lower tax rate as well i spoke to governor new sosom of california and asked if he was worried about elon musk leaving, and he said not at all are you on the phone courting other silicon valley businesses? >> weekly. there are others i have been in neglect with, with the nasdaq and businesses that do business with the nasdaq. we are working across the board. the times of covid have exposed

a lot. they have exposed the ability you don't have to be in manhattan to be involved in the trading business or investment business we are getting a lot of investment leaders from the new york region, new jersey region as well as california region moving to the state of texas that's just the investment sector, tech sector, et cetera also, the freedom to operate without heavy hand of regulation means a lot. >> governor abbott, thanks for your time. >> take care >> governor abbott on this news that oracle is moving its headquarters to texas. >> one i like to play ag inflation. >> james >> bit wise.

the smartest and safest ways to participate in a blue market run by the smartest indexer i have ever met that is my final trade >> steve >> stocks that can double, but i think this can triple. bft. have a nice weekend. >> thanks for watching stick around, "options action" is up next

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a case of mistaken identity. how to keep from being scrooged this holiday season. and speaking of gifts, tony has a couple of gifts. and finally, facebook has become the poster child for th