double downgrade for three major carriers details straight ahead quake box begins right now good morning, happy humpday. welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and right now there are some green arrows dow closed up by over 300 points, a lot of it because there is hope that we could sigh an additional stimulus package coming.sigh an additional stimulus package coming we'll talk more about it in a moment and it did seem like they made some progress. dow indicated up by about 86 points

yesterday the nasdaq closed at a russell high this morning indicated up by 38 points and the s&p 500 futures indicated up by about 12 points. check out the treasury market, we're waiting to hear from the fed today as well. but you will see that the ten year looks like it is yields 0.923% andrew and to that point, congressional leaders met late yesterday to negotiate new covid relief aid for millions. ylan mui is joining us with the latest good morning >> good morning, andrew. there is a lot of optimism, but there is no deal yet leadership from both parties were huddling in the capital until late last night to try to negotiate the deal nancy pelosi held one round of talks in her office and then they all met a couple hours later and then mitch mcconnell was hold up in his office with kevin mccarthy for several more

hours. and ofccarthy says that there is a poenlts of getting a deal done. and chuck schumer said that they are making significant progress. thursday is the day that the house is targeting for a potential vote on a government funding bill and a covid relief package, but still unclear if they will find a path forward on the two big road block, state and local aid and liability protections. meanwhile a group of rank and file lawmakers are still pushing for any deal to include stimulus checks or as democratic congresswoman pressly called them, survival checks. and they do agree that nobody is going home until they strike a deal back over to you >> did you believe that, that nobody is going home until they strike a deal? >> i do.

i do think that they are serious about that does going home mean staying through the weekend, mean taking it through christmas, that part is unclear or can they actually finish it up by the deadline i think what is significant about the talks yesterday is that all of the players were involved what we saw over the fall as we got suckered into 24 so many times were are negotiations between the white house through the treasury secretary and nancy pelosi but mcconnell was on the sidelines. and now what you are seeing is all of those players over the phone but talking together and trying to hammer it out. there are still potential x factors including whether or not president trump would in it, what happens with the stimulus checks, will an individual senator hold up the process. but if they want to do it, it is achievable and they can do it by the deadline address t and the fact that they are talking more to each other than

they are talking to us is a good thing. >> yeah, it is huge that they are talking. but one thing i don't understand and that is how a single senator could hold things up explain that to me >> so there is a certain amount of time that the senate needs to be able to consider and debate a bill once it is filed. that is anywhere in -- depending on how deep you want to go in the weeds, it could be over a day for a debate in order for the senate as to-to-speed up the process, they need unanimous consent so any one not like a rand paul or bernie sanders could hold up the process. doesn't marine corps t doesn't mean that the government wouldn't get funded eventually, but they could miss the deadline and work into next week. >> all right thank you. i know we'll be talking a lot

more to you about it as soon asing that they don't know home. mitch mcconnell offering his congratulations to joe biden and kamala harris from the senate floor. >> as of this morning, our country has officially a president-elect and a vice president-elect. many millions of us had hoeped that the presidential election would yield a different result but our system of government has a process to determine who will be sworn in on january 20 theth. >> and it was of course the first time that mcconnell acknowledged joe biden as president-elect. and later warned republicans not to object to the electoral college outcomes when congress affirms the victory on january 6. this according to nbc news worth noting, kevin mccarthy for example and still many others

have not acknowledged biden's victory. >> mcconnell just making a point that the electoral college voted. all my whacky -- a lot of my whacky people on twitter, they were all calling themselves president-elect. so it is all semantics twitter, you will find anything. a lot of fun it is nutty. president-elect is a hell of a title. >> this wouldn't be the first time that we called someone president-elect. >> it is short hand for once the election is over, there is -- >> we know it is coming. >> you can say president-elect,

you can say new president, president to be, you can use i in of those. >> presumed president-elect. you can use a lot of different things but yes, officially it is when the electoral college votes, but when you seeevitabilit inevitability -- >> we had v-day, was it v-day or d-day? >> there was both. a general was calling it d-day which i think is more appropriate. v-day great for the vaccine, but d-day i think is more significant because the that signifies the day when you take a significant change in a military operation where you are fighting back. you start handing the vaccines out. >> see, now the eu, they are mad at that guy, rightly so probably like let's go here, you know people getting jabbed all over the place. so they are going, geez, i don't know

anyway, that probably is -- >> days matter >> yeah, it is not like the eu doesn't have cases so let's get going and the point has been made, what a difference a week can make anyway, here you go. and you are correct here, you are absolutely journalistically correct with this next story >> let me roll this out. president-elect biden, drum roll, said that he has chosen pete buttigieg to be transportation sect. he will be tasked with repairing roads and bridges throughout the united states. we've been talking about infrastructure for a very long time, maybe we'll actually get something done also multiple media reports say that the president-elect will nominate jennifer beggranholm te energy secretary and here is a big call this morning.

and i can tell you how difficult it is to go from an yovanovitch wait overweight to an underweigh. almost impossible. jpmorgan out with a big call on airlines, downgraded united, jetblue and spiritual the way from overweight to underweight wish we use to that with diets anyway, a two notch downgrade. an lists said valuation was the at that time list. so can you go from -- no, not one of the choices for these analysts an anyway, it was a simple housekeeping response, but unsurprising fourth quarter demand trends. and it became a recommendation for selective profit taking. see what max brought me?

is this help something. >> what is that? >> sausage and egg mcmuffin. you know how you do pies, cut them into like an eighth i'll have an eighth because i did 488 calories -- >> an eighth followed by another eighth followed by another -- i want to see this at the end of the show >> i'll work on ff, i'll run around the set here. anyway, jpmorgan had an already weighted american airlines and southwest at underweight delta and alaska remain overweight with an implied pea poe up side of around 30%. so andrew, you know, mr. hollow leg, mr. nine doughnuts, do you have a preference? i had a choice here. there were two here. the egg mcif you have in-cmuffi-

>> my preference is doughnuts. >> but between the sausage and egg or regular egg mcmuffin. >> yeah, i think that i would have the sausage egg mcmuffin. there is more fat this would be more filling >> yeah. but with you, it is all about just health. i mean, it is -- you can do whatever you want. >> i go from being totally overwealthy or completely bingeing >> weight wise you have no -- i mean, you don't have a six pack, do you >> i go up and down. we talked about this when covid first started, we talked about the college 15, and i think we all -- not saying we all, but -- >> you are pointing at me.

paint pointed at me. >> inno, no, but in the past couple months, i've been trying to get back to neutral as jpmorgan would say >> all right there are serious things happening and we need to move on here coming up, today's market catalyst including a news conference from jay powell, that is coming up and futures this morning up about 90 on the dow. 35 on the nasdaq plusme plus ecommerce site wish is set to start trading on the nasdaq today. the company raisiing $1.1 billion. we'll be watching that trade throughout the day every year, we set out to do one thing

help the world believe in holiday magic. and this year was harder than ever. and yet, somehow, you all found a way to pull it off. it's not about the toys or the ornaments but about coming together. santa, santa, you're on mute! just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing.

r, fear of missing out.

focus of our what's working segment this morning very powerful in the stock market at different times. our hex guest says it is driving investors to look ahead to the potential bigger payouts joining us now is eugene prophet, ceo and portfolio manager of prophet investor management i think that investors sometimes have a hard time or even people that watch the market, it is scary to be in a market that can go down. does the dollar per dollar risk of going down, does that equate to the risk of not being in a market is that up 75%? if there are two sides of the same coin, aren't they, so this should be something all investors consider, opportunity loss

and you may not get it back. >> yeah, but hard to do. i think that you are correct, investors are much more afraid of missing the up side even though many will say the biggest fear is of losing their portfolio vestment not many investors invest that way. they are annoyed that the missed the big increases in stocks like zoom or invidia. and it is very difficult to kind of stick to a discipline and invest in securities that are hoe pri low priced valuations even though that is where your biggest returns will come from >> even it to be pa maximum fomo is all the good news is sort of happen something like we finally got the vaccine, electoral college confirming joe biden

and this is when you feel maximum, oh, high god, rk my go in, i missed it. so am i too late >> investors are very optimistic you're right, no one rings the bell and says what will really cause the market to go down when you are inn in a raging bull mar receipt. and the vaccine is here and we'll be completely vaccinated by the end of june and we're off to the races i'm looking around and saying what happens if we don't get stimulus what really happens to all of the homeowners or landlords that haven't been receiving rent if we don't get, you know, a package that allows -- so we're

looking at companies like intel or even goldman sachs, not companies that lot of people are excited to be in, especially intel. you have a company that you are paid #1.6 dividend yield to weight 25% on the balance sheet yet no one wants to own it because they are looking and saying that they delayed the chip and trading it like it is going to go out of business. we see a margin of safety in companies like that and we think that you will be well rewarded even though you have to be careful because you will probably see some people selling the stock and lock in the loss but i think in 2021, you will do well in names like that. and you have to avoid that fomo process of saying, wow, i wish i had invested in zoom wow, i wish i had invested in

wish even. well, guess what, in-that they will si think that they will surprise to the up side. >> yeah, consumer discretionary and financial you like also small caps you think are undervalued. and you mentioned sales concerns there would be profit -- long term gain concerns if the senate goes, would there or would there not, and is there-befolthere --e won't know in time i guess you'd have time to sell next year if we thought that >> i think that you will probably see this year you lock in the gains, a lower tax rate if you assume that the

tax rates might increase next year and you can buy right away again in january and i think that looking at the -- you have to wait 30 days, so -- >> but maybe it is coming. still time but i'm just wondering whether next year you can assume that capital gains taxes will be higher we don't know. >> i think that you might see higher taxes next year >> all right eugene, thank you. appreciate it. beck. joe, shoe show me the saus m mcmuffin >> it is still here. i can stuff a sock or something in here. that sounds bad.

no, it is still -- i don't know what to do with it i'm torn because that downgrade from overweight to underweight. i want the downgrade >> if you let it sit long enough, it will get deposit gust i disgusting >> there is a microwave upstairs and coming up, new moves to break up big tech. and let's look at the biggest premarket gainers.

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senate majority leader mitch mcconnell says that lawmakers will not break for the holidays unless and until a new coronavirus relief bill passes it is something that we've been hearing a lot about, but in time is it does sound like all the major players where actually talking about this >> it is an economic war and certain, you know -- we went into world war ii, a lot of industries were shut down. and everything went over to the defense production well, we've shut down a lot of people in this particular i think duesed recession and others are prospering. >> guy, i don't know what this new bill that congress is discussing is going to look like, but small businesses and getting aid, additional aid to the small businesses seems to be

a fairly bipartisan issue that both sides can agree on. so hopefully that will be part the of it. unemployment benefits being extended seems like there are ideas that both sides can really get behind >> this is it this time probablyic . >> i think so too. >> this kills me sorkin, we talked about it already. but frank and jackie and marilyn and all those little -- you know, i don't know about those things but they have to take those down anyway probably. but really 90 years? and remember the last time there was no one out here on new year's eve, 1907 not going to be a soul here as the ball comes down this year. so many things like that that you -- >> why in 1907, what happened then >> i don't know. i know it was between '06 and

'08. but i didn't even look just saw that. we should look it up >> it wasn't like the 1919 pandemic >> no. i was looking up calories, i wasn't looking up 1907 >> still obsessing >> no, i did that earlier. a shocker. 2000 a day, that's it? i wish there was a way that we could -- i don't know. i just wishl there was -- well, there is a way, but i'm not ready to try that. anyway, you know -- >> i think it is a real possibility that stimulus gets passed >> today is the day. i'm ready for it or are 24 wee this week >> i want to be hopeful, but -- i want to be hopeful meantime, european officials are seeking new powers to regulate big tech companies. the proposal would empower regulators break up companies or levy multibillion-dollars fines.

it would likely apply to several large u.s. tech companies. likely taking months or everyone years to debate before those proposals could become law and of course questions about whether the u.s. would try to retail great in some other kind of way a lot more coming up on the other side of the break. new details on the massive cyberattack believed to be backed by russia, we'll tell you why companies would be worried as much as government agencies and take a look at the yesterday's winners and leezers.

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at u.s. equity futures. dow looks like it will open about 85 points higher, nasdaq 27 and s&p about 11 points higher a bit of optimism about potential stimulus measures actually being enacted we'll cross our fingers and wait but we've heard the story before so we'll see >> i think that they realize there is no alternative. they can't celebrate the holidays while so many businesses and americans are feeling so much pressure so i know we've gotten fooled before, but this time i think that there will be something that happens let's get you an update on the massive cyberattack that is believed to have been packed by russia

victims include multiple government agencies and u.s. companies that were in-fifiltra through solar winds. a government spokesman said that national security adviser robert o'brien cut short a trip to return to the united states to address the cyber espionage campaign theresa payton is former white house chief information officer in the george w. bush administration, now the ceo of a cybersecurity firm thank you for being here what should we read into 24 trip being cut short, is that significant thing, is this for appearances or do you think that this is really a very significant attack and more needs to be -- more attention needs to be paid >> you're spot on. this is a significant development in this. it is serious. based on what we know and what we don't know, you know, if i put it on a scale of one to ten,

i'm approaching a nine and a lot of that is based on what we still don't know but the fact that many organizations have been impacted, departments and agencies, the u.s. military, potentially because of this compromise, you can't trust electronic communications right now. so no surprise to me that he came back state side possibly to go into in-person briefings. >> when you say you put did oit nine, what does that mean? what is a ten? if you start thinking about the different gradations of what a ten would be, that is kind of like a meltdown, right >> nine for me right now is based on what i have seen from what microsoft has reported, fireeye, fbi through the different bulletins that have come out that have been so help testimony telling companies and government organizations the

steps that they need to take immediately, essentially the design gives the opportunity for cyber operatives to have what we refer to in the industry as god access or the god door but the investigation is still on going so maybe we got lucky, maybe the cyber operatives had set up that god door, but maybe they did not get away with ib firway infiltre systems in a way that they changed dare tata, that they haa permanent hold on the systems. but there are many talented men and women behind the scenes to figure out that access, if it was potentially used, what is potentially compromised. so i'm at a nine, but i may deescalate that feeling as we hear more. >> it is crazy that this has been taking place over the last nine months and nobody finked it out until now. the idea that we still don't

know exactly what happened what kind confidence can any government agency or any company that has been hacked at this pointsd, what kind of confidence can they have that they are not losing internal documents on a regular waivbasis? >> i remember when mr. mueller the former fbi director said many years ago, only two types of organizations and it is those that have been hacked and those that don't know it yet and so that is why right now this is not an american problem, this was an attack on us all so we have an extreme global issue that needs to be reviewed and assessed one of the things that organizations need to do is assume compromise. i liken to, you know, if you start to suddenly see

fingerprint on the outside of your house on the windows and on the doors, it could be your kids looking in, or maybe santa peeping in, but it could also be people with nefarious intent that is what you do in a threat hunt, you look to see whether digitally you are being surveilled i'd position be looking at logs to see what kind of information will be taken which is hard to do when we're in the work in home situation >> and this is a situation that i think is position concerning because it wasn't the government that caught that it was being hacked this was private companies or publicly trading companies that picked up on this and alerted the government and it raises the question about a cybersecurity czar, whether that is something that we need at this point. it is difficult for government to compete with private industry because it can't pay the same rates that private industry can.

how can we protect it as best as we can >> the government has done a great job in the last several years in actually working on compensation and incentives and recruited incredible talent. but i agree, i think one of the things that is missing vertical ends up being its own entities and you really to need a white house cybersecurity coordinator who has the authority and responsibility to look across these equities and entities that bridge the gap between the hill, the white house, private sector and the departments and agencies and that role has been left unfilled since it was basically eliminated by mr. bolton so i would advise the incoming administration, this is a role that needs to be filled and

possibly naming somebody sooner rather than later during transition >> theresa, thanks for your time good to talk to you. >> thanks for having me on and coming up, a little disappointed andrew that you missed an opportunity to, you know, build up the "new york times. but it was organized in 1907 by the owner of the "new york times. the ball dropping. an update on this. they used to have fireworks or something and instead they moved to the headquarters of the "new york times" to drop the ball here and then did you know that -- did you just -- you were just being humble that it was the "new york times" >> you know, joe, i'm humbled speaking to you every day because i learn something new. but, yes -- >> only two times -- >> yes, it was discussed that

times square was named after the new york sometimes >> 1942 and 1943, the ball was not dropped in observance of the war. so now this is the first time since i guess 1943 when the ball did not drop but the first time was 1907. it was freezing, i remember, i was thinking, oh, i wish i had -- coming up, much more on what is moving the markets this morning including the hopes of more covid relief aid from congress also a fed statement later. and then kyle bass will tell us some crazy stuff about what china is up to down in texas and other things where yoshldutoumoy work. p yr ne ♪ we pray.

we pray kids don't go hungry. and those who've lost jobs can keep the lights on. now is the time to put hands and feet to our prayers. our community needs our help more than ever. ♪ to all the businesses make it through 2020... thank you for going the extra mile... and for the extra pump of caramel. thank you for the good food... and the good karma. thank you for all the deliveries... especially this one. you've reminded us that no matter what, we can always find a way to bounce forward. so thank you, to our customers and to businesses everywhere, from all of us at comcast business.

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welcome back amazon is encouraging frontline employs in california to get weekly covid-19 test, being administered at third party urgent care clinics. workers are being told to get them outside of scheduled working hours and they will receive up to 1.5 hours of compensation for their time and travel a separate note is that the

tests will be provided by the company and the costs would be covered. you can brecan read more are on cnbc.com it is an issue of course con fronting workers at amazon and countries across the country considering how to test employees and how to offer that service. some are doing it on premise, others off premises. at one point amazon if you remember was actually trying to build out its own testing service so that they could actually test on premises for everybody. i don't know the state of play where that is right now. >> wherever you go, you get your temperature taken, i can tell you that much. had a haircut yesterday and wherever you go, they will check it out i wish i could get 3w06 above f 96 anyway, the faip has da has prid the first at home test

it will cost about $30 and will soon soon be availabler purchase in pharmacies and online it is a nose swab in a delivers results as fast as 20 minutes. i have a huge monitor mere today. becky, you have a comment. >> well, just that i was super excited about this whhome test, you don't need a prescription from your doctor it is incredibly exciting. but if they are only going to make 3 million of these in the month of january, they won't be readily available at pharmacies everywhere if they could ramp it up and sell lots and lots of them, this could be a complete game changer. i think that you would have all kinds of people checking it out before you had holiday visits, even before you send your kids to school or went to work. this would be a complete game

changer if they could be readily available. because $30 is not bad for a price point. to have it without a prescription, awesome. but the 3 million that they manufacture in january, that won't be nearly enough and this is an australian company, so this is 3 million for around the globe >> good news is that there is a number of other companies that i think that we'll be hearing about over the next 30, 45 days coming forward with services like this that i think actually have much more manufacturing capacity so i think that we'll start to see some of the home services. the other big issue that i'm aware of the cdc concerned about is the reporting of positive tests which is to say that right now, if you go to any kind of clinic, why people use these clinics, it gets reported back to the state immediately in some of the cases, because they are using phones and what not to register, it getting reported, in other cases it may

not. so that might change the picture. so a lot of questions about how it will all get rolled out nonethele nonetheless, we're watching shares ev of konl castcoas a pce rg i$62.t,ndri frsz

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning corporate america making commitments and yesterday we spoke with microsoft's initiative with the green bay packers to start black and latino people for focus. >> focusing on black capital go to latin x founders, only 1% to black founders this is an opportunity to start to change that >> our next guest changed the

face of board rooms. the former chair and ceo of avon one of the first women to run a large us company she runs a minority fund tell us about this latest initiative, how it came together and what you're hoping to get to it. >> sure. good morning thank you so much for having me on it's very exciting because the news in the last few weeks about ipos, doordash, airbnb, it's interesting that investors are looking at social impact vehicles to get money out to low income minority small businesses there's been so much discussion about small businesses and the impact obviously before we got into the pandemic but certainly

in 2020 so this initiative truly puts money to work it is a social investment impact fund $17.5 million invested by private foundations and individuals yields over $200 million of loan capital that will go out to over 50,000 small business owners in the next five years, and that cycle is extraordinary because we give out loans and they are repaid every week that money goes back into the market to other lendees. so that is how we get that incredible cycle and there's so much return on that invested loan. >> let me ask you a question because i always think there's a misunderstanding in social impact investing there is a return for the investor what are they expecting to get back beyond hopefully doing good >> they get their principle back they do get interest on the

investment and that gives them the opportunity to truly put the money to work. it is different than philanthropy philanthropy still plays an important role in terms of fueling and funding a lot of work for low income entrepreneurs. but this social impact investment allows them to retain their principle, make that decision, get a return annually paid back at the end of every year, make the decision after five years if they want to continue to keep money in the fund, take their principle back and/or keep investing. >> your backers, a lot of foundations, what about the corporate space? this could be an interesting opportunity. what robert smith says the 2% solution, netflix is moving its money into banks and minority and lower income communities again, with the same kind of hope how do you think a business, a for profit, even publicly traded entity, should think about

social impact investing to the extent it has cash on the sideline >> i think it's a huge opportunity. we have a lot of corporate partners, big corporate partners from banks, bank of america, master card, citi, google has invested so there have been extraordinary interest and impact from corporations but corporations really can play a huge role in this sector as well. >> okay. andrea, great to see you congratulations. of course, we look forward to followings the great progress of the work that you're doing and look forward to talking to you again. >> thank you very much for having me on it's exciting. >> of course talk to you soon becks? >> thanks, andrew. when we come back, media's top man will join us next. we'll be right back.

stocks putting a stop to their recent skid with the three major averages surging more than 1% and the dow getting back above 30,000 we'll get more on the latest market move and the fed decision from black rock's rick raider. the covid vaccine rollout continues. meantime, the fda has approved the first over the counter rapid at-home test we'll get the latest on the battle against the virus. bracing for a serious storm.

snow and ice expected to hit a large part of the east coast today. a live report and what you can expect is coming straight ahead. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ the weather outsite is frightful ♪ ♪ but the fire is so delightful ♪ ♪ since we have no place to go, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow ♪ >> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we might be getting a snow day soon here on the east coast. >> wow. >> kids are thinking about that. this has become a virtual -- do we have to go to virtual school on snow days >> no, we're getting a real snow day. >> no such thing as a snow day. >> becky quick, joe kernen -- >> every day is a snow day, isn't it >> not for the kids. >> forth kids, do they get to go out sledding or do they have to sit in front of an ipad? >> no, they go sledding. >> that's the question call their teachers, becks

we are not -- >> no, we already are. our school district is doing a real snow day. we're on a real snow day >> your kids are back, right if it's already virtual, it's hard to -- what are they -- >> no, our kids are back >> yeah. >> meantime, let's show you u.s. equity futures right now the dow looking like it would open up 80 points higher >> thanks, andrew. first up, give me a second, technical issues here, the first up we want to talk about what's happening with the stimulus. right now there isno deal for covid-19 aid package out of washington that's just yet. the two sides do appear to be edging closer and senate majority leader says that lawmakers will not leave town

for the holidays until an agreement is struck. the big deal here is all parties are talking. all four of the top congressional leaders along with steven mnuchin weighing in that's the first time we've seen that happen. shares of cannabis producers, aphri a&t ilray. we're watching airline shares. jpmorgan issuing double down on jetblue, united airlines and spirit airlines. from under weight to over weight the firm notes weakening demand. separately, southwest airlines is highlighting weaker demand. in an sec filing the company says the fourth quarter daily cash burn rate will be $12 billion. that's higher than prior estimates of 10 to $11 million joe? >> thanks, beck. speaking of the airlines, breaking news from united. let's get right to phil lebeau what's up, phil?

>> united, let's take a look at the stock. the company announces it will be initiating a voluntary contact tracing program. so this is how it's going to work it's initially going to start with in bound international flights. those arriving on international flights. they can opt into this program starting tomorrow. it will eventually be expanded with all flights including domestic name, email, trip destination, phone number basically it's their way of saying if there is some issue with covid-19 on your particular flight, this is our way using contact tracing to alert you so that we can give you a better sense of having some piece of mind that if there is somebody who is on your flight that tests positive for covid-19, we can alert you and we all know that the importance of contact tracing programs is that if a lot of people use them, they're very effective the question is, how many people will opt into this voluntarily remember, delta announced it's

going to be doing this similar program for its international flights coming in. united airlines also starting a contact tracing program. we were at the airport yesterday. talked with a few people as they were getting their tickets look, would you opt into something like this? here's my information so you have it? most people said, yeah, i probably would do it if it's just for them to notify me if somebody tests positive on my flight, sure, i'd like to know >> yeah. becky, when you were talking about it, phil, talking about people coming in from abroad mostly, right? i was thinking -- >> that's where they're starting the international arrivals starting tomorrow but they're eventually going to expand it for domestic flights as well. >> ask both of them what they want to do the two that -- how many people are coming in from abroad? i guess there's a few more, phil >> it's low. it's really low. >> anyone going over there are we allowed at this point i haven't paid attention to it

i haven't planned any trips -- >> depends where you're going. for a lot of places, no, you still cannot go. there areplaces where you can go, but you're right, joe. very limited on the international side i think what's significant here is that united said we're going to do this for all of our clients, domestic as well. when we brought that up for people, that's not a bad idea. if i'm flying to california, florida, wherever, i wouldn't mind it. people were positive on the flight or somebody was positive on your flight, you should be notified >> okay. all right. phil, thanks for bringing that to us. phil lebeau. you're not preparing for the big snow tomorrow but you'll get your -- your day will come, my friend in that place >> we'll wait. >> andrew? >> okay. meantime, health and human services secretary alex azar offerings a time line when people can get a vaccine meg tirrell joins us good morning, meg.

>> reporter: good morning, andrew the end of february, the end of march, that is what secretary alex azar told shepard smith on cnbc about when the general population will start to get access to the covid-19 vaccines. that's dependent on a number of things going right first, can we vaccinate hundreds of millions of americans in this record time? that's a key question. the second of course is supply the u.s. government has currently purchased 300 million doses from moderna and from pfizer the two vaccines that have proven to work 200 million from moderna, 100 million from pfizer and 200 million of those, 100 million from moderna and pfizer in the first quarter. the second 100 million get delivered in the second quarter by june. the government is working on striking a deal with pfizer for another 100 million doses but there is some tension happening that has become apparent this week really through our interview on

monday with pfizer ceo and shep's interview with secretary azar could they use or why haven't they used the defense production act to help pfizer get access to the supplies take a listen to both of those gentlemen this week. >> while we guaranteed purchase of $2 billion of vaccine, that is critical for their ability to develop that and the put the capital investment in, they are more secretive with the manufacturing capacities we can't know they have a raw material problem until they tell us they have a raw material problem. >> we are asking them for things, they haven't done it yet, but we are asking them. i hope they will do it very soon because particularly in some components we are running at critical supply but i think they will do it >> reporter: so albert bourla telling us their materials are

running at critical supply presumably they've told the hhs guys pfizer can deliver $100 million doses in the third quarter the pressure is on to speed up those doses.100 million doses in the third quarter the pressure is on to speed up those doses. and/or counting on vaccinations from moderna and j&j >> we talk about the pfizer results and the moderna given the great results. j&j, if the results are positive in january, how quickly does that come on the heels and how quickly does that get rolled out on the other end they have huge manufacturing operation going. >> reporter: they do, and their shot is the only vaccine that could be one dose and so excited to get to see those data we can expect them in early january because they've enrolled

about 42,000 people in their trial. they were going to enroll 60,000 but because the infection rates are so high they don't need as many people to show efficacy on this vaccine they're going to stop the enrollment at the end of this week, on monday, and they expect they should have essentially enough cases of covid-19 in the trial to be able to tell the difference between placebo and vaccine. early january if it works and it shows safety, he expects it could get on the market in february >> wow >> meg, can we go back to this tension between pfizer and the u.s. government on trying to work this out? i've been trying to figure out what they were quibbling back and forth about, what they were arguing about. price would be one question. it doesn't sound like that it sounds like pfizer needs help getting some of these key components if the u.s. isn't going to help them get that, then the u.s. isn't going to get moved up in the line

is that your understanding of it >> yeah. what we've been hearing over the last week and dr. gottleib told you guys was that pfizer had its second quarter allotment of these doses manufactured by the mille of the year. he same to them and asked, do you want these they said no third quarter allotment is available but the u.s. wants it sooner so in order to try to speed that up, they would need access to raw materials supply and the defense production act could compel suppliers to put pfizer at the front of the line for those supplies that is the question could that be done would that help? there's been talk of the u.s. government taking those dose the allocated to other countries that would be a big move. >> that would be something to see. i guess my biggest kpe, are those components, why wouldn't

we get the most components or are they the same ones that j&j and moderna would need too and picking and choosing winners and who comes out on top is that the answer >> reporter: it could be we don't know exactly what the raw materials are that are in short supply very secretive to alex azar, secretive to the industry in general but if it's lipids, that's something moderna uses and pfizer those are the questions. >> meg tirrell, as always, thank you so very, very much we should also bring you a programming note because today a special edition of the healthy returns live stream with dr. anthony fauci, operation warp speed's monsef slaoui and meg

tirrell. keeping your business and family safe during the holiday season you can register at cnbcevents.com to see it all becky? >> thanks, andrew. when we come back liontree founder and ceoaryeh bourkoff will join us his outlook for m&a. let's take a quick look at the markets. after gains, you're seeing green arrows dow up by 300 points s&p up by about 10 points and the nasdaq after setting a record indicated up anhe26otr this morning "squawk box" will be right back. in a land not so far away,

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aryeh, it's great to see you. now you do it on zoom virtually. what's the level of confidence

one way or the other >> well, thanks for having me, andrew i hope you and your family and everyone on the "squawk box" team are doing well and finishing the year healthy and strong and looking forward to what we call hopefully an extraordinary year ahead because we have been living in a very big crisis moment. we still are hopefully we are going to look forward into brighter days ahead post vaccines. look, ceos are certainly feeling cautious about, you know, families, health, everything that we always talked about, but they are feeling more optimistic about the deal environment we've seen a remarkable pickup in the fourth quarter. in fact, i think going into 2021 this is our strongest pipeline at lion tree that we've had in terms of the deal environment. that's not the be all end all for things we should be concerned about, but from a deal perspective, all of the

fundamentals are positive. the market is wide open as you can see every day. it seems to be green there is a wave of ipos. spacs are all out there looking for deals and transactions, probably 200 today all hunting for deals. companies are looking for portfolio optimization even the large conglomerates are starting to sell off pieces. there are divisions going public and not just the growth companies that want to go public divisions are going to start to go public or separate in different transactions we did one with obviously viacom cbs selling the simon and shuster business a few weeks ago. there are all different types of transactions also the interest rate is low. private equity is increasing i think all of the market fundamentals are strong. i think when you also look at elements of technology and growth, whether it's tourism and travel, events, some of the value driven plays are starting

to come back as well >> so, you know, the thing we talk about almost every day these days is spacs and how spacs are changing the dynamic you talk about divisions being spun off one of the questions i've been looking to see whether you think there's going to be a number of spacs effectively buying divisions of publicly traded companies. it's harder to pull off in part because you have to get financials for that division you have to bring investors who would have invested in a pipe, for example, over the wall which means they get iced out in terms of being able to invest or not in that company for in some cases the extended period of time how do you see that all playing itself out >> well, it's interesting. the tail wagging the dog i had a few meetings with ceos where they were called from people in the press or from spacs basically pushing

transactions or speculation just by virtue of the fact there are so many spacs out there pushing deals. doesn't mean the deals are going to happen or that the deals should happen, but there's so much more conversation happening because everything seemingly is possible and it's just a lot more chatter about, you know, the pitch. so i think a lot of this is the pitch still. what should happen is really based on what the board room and the companies and the ceo's objectives have to match up to there are certain dynamics where you will see divisions of companies unlocking the value of the holding company by being separated. that maybe takes a more risky division that is more of a growth orientation into a public dynamic and leaves the existing company to sort of like uncap its overhang i think you're going to see some of those things. you can do it by separating the financials it takes time. the evolution of spacs are interesting. you can see individual spacs or

public or celebrities. we have a concept we're talking about, not just media. so it's the individual channel everyone has their own streaming platform that could extend all the way to public markets. >> aryeh, i know we have the specific praise. did you say individuals could go public in a spac and get money that seems the ultimate craziness. >> it's frothy it's flush any athlete or any individual or even the kardashians having an income stream or a brand that has cash flow and, you know, 360 models around streaming or other forms of branded merchandising, ecommerce, not just an individual that's walking the street, it's an individual that has a plan around it that has a plan and that business plan can go public. so there's a real fragmentation of media and a fragmentation of

income streams and athletes. you're buying future business stream a lot of spacs aren't going to find a deal. they're going to try hard and they're going to push the edges. >> aryeh, two quick questions. in the media tech space people thought they would build a company and sell it to an alphabet, an amazon, an apple, et cetera, facebook. is that over do you believe those companies effectively can't be buyers for the foreseeable future >> i don't think so. you're making that comment because of the potential regulatory scrutiny and pressure. >> right. >> a lot of the media company projects are rising materiality. big cap media is acquired by tech looking at a lot of studios and

ip, that's going to be required by the tech platforms that are all competing with one another in a race for the consumer globally what we're seeing now with the hb/oh warner announcement and disney announcement is having proprietary content, exclusive content is now critical. that's the game. that can be done in production and development and also done through acquisition and done faster i think you'll see all the platforms streaming live streaming wars start to buy up the remaining ip studios, big and small, and to have their own content in house, which will long term give power to the platform i think short term that is a good dynamic for the content owners and media companies but long term the platform players pluses, the disney+s, discovery pluses, the hbo maxes, the ones that have the plus, that's the emphasis, for the future in the right positioning will have the power because then the contact

can be leased longer. >> aryeh, great to see you you put out a great letter predicting the future. hope to see you in person in the new year. >> we'll hope for a better 2021. thanks very much >> thanks. you, too joe? andrew, coming up. major winter storm ready to pack a punch to much of the northeast. what you can expect is next. sorkin, do you remember some fond memories of previous snow days where we were all put up in a hotel? maybe you not so much because i was out in new jersey, but we e are all ready to be home the whole world has changed, has it not >> welcome to the future >> right you know what it entailed for tomorrow i'll stay at home. that's all it entailed amazing. my driver used to drive over medians and stuff to get me

here anyway -- my driver. i sound like you my driver "squawk box" coming right back time now for today's aflac trivia question. in what year did amazon reach a market cap of $1 billion e swthaner when cnbc "squawk box" continues aflac! now tell me, what does aflac do? aflac pays you money directly to help with unexpected medical bills. and is aflac health insurance? no, but it can help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover! that's right. are there any questions? -coach! -yes? can i get one of those cool blue blazers? you know i can't play favorites. alright let's talk coverage. it's go time! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. mmm hmm! get to know us at aflac.com

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. in what year did amazon reach a market cap of $1 billion the answer, 1997 a long way from that now katherine creag joins you. >> becky, good morning

it's really quite a chilly morning here in manhattan. we will be in the thick of it. a foot is still there. that is the salt mound city crews have been pulling up. >> a department of sanitation.

i also grocery stores, we've seen it. >> it's a serious situation and exciting.

>> you either, who knows where it could be. becky are you still there. in times square.

welcome back, everybody. the fed will have a two-day policy issue it will be better than people are thinking and giving people rise even further. rick rieder is here and he's the head of the global allocation

fund the lows back there. what's happening? >> plus, it's there and we have people underestimating 10 percentage we underestimating.

you think 10 months in the market and the economy is there then by the time of the other alternatives the incredible benefit that it's creating for companies the time is going on >> it is likely to still come from washington.

>> i absolutely think more is needed employment is there. it's going to be done. services in general. there's more and more air time the system can handle. and in particular given the fact that there's a nominal gdp

i think the fed is now the co-pilot it's the sense of unemployment. >> we look at it this year but i think that's a winner. semiconductors change of commerce and that will impact it. doordash, airbnb

that i think is real the cyclicals. cyclicals are more powerful. they'll continue to do more. i still think that's wins. >> the head of global fixed income jamie dimon.

>> it's interesting. the ten year treasuries. 30 year treasuries there are assets getting yield and fixed income not so much. >> the vaccine yesterday >> we'll talk to you soon, rick. >> thanks, becky thanks for having me

>> okay. coming up, ford getting ready to unleash. >> the automaker ford versus tesla. ♪ when disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. that's the nature of humanity. ♪ it has encouraged other people to take the time for each other. ♪ ♪

(m♪ ic)

ford's electric mache, and they're telling wall street, the moves, phil lebeau, you're like planes, trains, automobiles.

>> you may have the new mustang mach e >> they are getting the base price of $42,800 and 24 is really the first all electric ford. there's no way out in the market it's here in the united states.

>> they're hoping that changes with the mach e. >> several times and before you're going to catch up with tesla, which is $587 billion market cap if you were a ford investor, you believe jim farley the new ceo is going to lay out a roadmap that the company can find its way back to success, look at the last three months. it's a similar amount. this is a nice pattern you see here at ford the question is can they build off of mach e. it has the >> all right, phil no cross talk but i would always

cross talk with you. i'm told there's none available today. what do you think of that? we're doing it i'm sorry. >> that's all that matters a mole like you. anyway, see you later, phil. >> thank you hatch back mustang man got league, dr. scott gottleib is going to join us with the latest on the vaccine rollout. he'll be with us after this break. futures at this hour indicated up again after gains yesterday dow indicated up by 81 sd uby6.naaqp 2 before we talk about tax-smart investing, what's new?

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pfizer has many front line health care workers and nursing home residents who's next joining us is dr. scott gottleib former fda commissioner and contributor. he sits on the boards of lumina and pfizer it feels different we're in a different phase of this whole process j&j. what you're expecting in terms of time line the ability to manufacture large

amounts. >> well, we kind of have a sense of what the supply is going to be for moderna and pfizer. what we don't know is are there going to be other new entrants will j&j get into the market we would hope they will. sanofi is delayed. astrazeneca is delayed j&j is a proven platform the hope is that sometime by maybe late spring -- late winter, early spring they could move to the market they'll have the capacity to supply the market. the big reporting is the recording from meg tirrell where she reported only 5 to 20% of the antibody drugs that have been shipped to the states have been used. i alluded to this. those drugs were probably not being used based on what i was hearing. what it means when the states are getting these drugs, they don't have the means to distribute them. they haven't set up the system

we've made a lot of discussion of the challenges of getting products from point a to point b with the cold chain. i said i think that's pretty solved for with our good low guess sticks in this country it's going to be a last mile problem. the experience with the antibody drugs is not a good harbinger. the number needed to treat in terms of keeping one patient out of the hospital with the antibody drugs is 10 lilly is going to distribute 900,000 doses of those drugs before the end of the year that means if all of the drugs got distributed, we could avoid 90,000 hospital emergency room visits that would be substantial. it's a harbinger for the vaccines as we get into the next tranche which is going to be in the community. it might be challenging for the states to distribute the vaccines if they can't distribute the antibody drugs. >> it seems like an opportunity, doctor we know it's going to take a while for the vaccines to really make a dent in this.

in the meantime, i mean, policy makers ought to get those anti-body drugs out. there's a way of focusing on a problem, isn't there i know it's the government there's a way of doing it, isn't there? >> there is. we've been talking about this for a long time trying to get in place the infusion centers that you need it's not an easy task. you need special infusion sites. you can't bring covid patients into infusion centers. some states have set up special sites and other states didn't plan for this. states are resource constrained on their own it's probably more the federal government can be doing to back stop the states. >> no private sector home infusion stuff none of that can't you co-op that at this point? >> exactly that's what i've written about and talked about on your show. using home infusion. again, you're going to need to pay someone to do that, but there are centers like the big chainpharmacies that can go into homes and deliver this. i think that's one infusion.

my point is simply that i think operation warp speed really needs to plan for this, that last mile. that's going to be the challenge. we need to get the drugs into the arms of patients. >> your point is we had problems with the antibody's last mile, we ought to be able to see not yet when we get there with the vaccines, it could be the same sort of bottleneck. >> exactly. >> we should prepare for it now. so we began the intro trying to figure out who should get this that's front and center as well. >> right >> will we be surprised how -- i guess you don't think we'll be surprised at how quickly it will come down to people that you don't think of as essential. that's going to be a while for the average person walking around to get one. >> it depends on if there's another entrant in the market. it gets back to the question you asked about johnson & johnson. i think what you're likely to see as we get into what we call 1b, the next tranche of patients

who will be eligible, this is january. december is health care workers and nursing homes. once we get into january, states are going to make decisions about the next tranche what you'll see is a tremendous amount of heterogeneity. some will prioritize elderly and workers and most states will do a hybrid of both trying to determine eligibility. trying to go out into the community to deliver the vaccines, how they do that, you're going to see a tremendous amount of heterogeneity. depending what state you're in, it will depend on the accessibility. you'll see stark differences in accessibility. the antibody drugs is a harbinger of that. if we are leaving this fully up to 50 states, we can expect to see a lot of differences in terms of how well this is run and who gets access to it and who doesn't. that's going to be unfortunate in the ideal world you want to see more uniformity. you want to be able to verify eligibility. you don't want to see some people being have and have notes

depending where they live. >> j&j is an adenovirus. would you assume they know -- it's hard to estimate but you figure it should be effective? >> we always felt the adenovirus would. the az looks to be robust. i would expect j&j to figure this out they're a good company. >> dr. gottleib, looking at the cyber attacks that have taken place, you headed the fda. my guess is there would have been cyber attacks there what's happening what's our government's response likely to be >> well, look, there's always attempted intrusions i think based on the public reporting that i've seen and the conversations i've had about this, this looks like normal espionage, basically spies being

spies. they tried to steal what looks like policy stuff. i don't want to get into a debate whether or not this was an attack. it looks like it will fall within the rubric of normal spy activity depending on what they tried to steal, there might be an attempt to get some indictments but i think that's where this is probably going to net out. >> we've got to go, i guess, doctor got a viewer accusing me of not asking a question before the interview is over so i'm going to get him here. is the antibody drug really expensiv expensive? is that part of the problem? is it 10 grand is that why we're not seeing more of it used? >> it's being paid for by the government it's available it's expensive to deliver and it's complicated to deliver but that money is being provided for. >> it is >> i don't think that's the reason why the states are struggling. >> all right there you have it. i did ask it dr. gottleib, thank you.

he has a bow tie on, too, this guy. hope to see you again. this is you coming up. see you later, doctor. >> you showed them when we come back, the latest on stimulus hopes out of washington we'll be talking to glenn hutchins stick around for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin gold bond labradoodles, cronuts, skorts. (it's a skirt... and shorts) the world loves a hybrid. so do businesses. so, today they're going hybrid with ibm.

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needed stimulus bill from washington what's different this time everyone has opinions on how president-elect biden should deal with china. is it naive to hope for thawing relations. kyle bass is going to weigh in on that question. we're standing by for breaking retail sales data economists expecting the first negative print since covid-19 hit in the spring. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin we started off a littlindicated

the dow. there are some of the key stocks, i guess, we're watching, becky. i don't know, fat fingers. we wanted to show you moderna, i guess. vaccine talk here. take it away, beck >> fat let's see your sausage mcmuffin. let's tell you what's making headlines this hour. health and human services secretary alex azar said most americans can expect to get the coronavirus vaccine in late february here he is on "the news with shepard smith" last night. >> i believe by the end of february or march, we'll have enough supply to be reaching out into the general public for administration at your cvs's, walgreens, krogers, february into march. >> of course this is all dependent on vaccine supplies and vaccine logistics going smoothly

deal news for you this morning, pot companies tilray and aphria will combine to create the world's biggest pot producer don't miss a first on cnbc interview with the ceos of both of those companies on closing bell at 4 p.m. eastern time. massachusetts security regulators are expected to file a complaint against robinhood today. they're aggressively marketing to inexperienced investors and not implementing controls to try and protect them andrew >> okay. we're following two big stories impacting the markets and your money at this hour mike santoli is going to join us in a moment to take stop of the breadth of the recent rally. first we'll get it over to ylan mui with the suddenly optimistic stimulus talks. good morning, again.

>> reporter: andrew, those talks did last late into last night as leadership from both parties try to hammer out this deal before the end of the week because that's when the government runs out of money december 18th. lawmakers are hoping to pass a comprehensive spending bill alongside another covid relief package. republicans and democrats did sound pretty up beat after several rounds on capitol hill yesterday with treasury secretary steven mnuchin dialing in over the phone. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said they were making progress and he's optimistic that lawmakers will come to a complete understanding sometime soon the one thing they are in agreement on is that nobody's going home until this job is done here's what mcconnell told reporters earlier in the day >> we're not leaving here without a covid package. not going to happen. we're going to stay here until we get a covid package no matter how long it takes.

>> reporter: now the negotiations are scheduled to continue today and possibly even into late tonight as well. if they reach a deal, the target date for a vote in the house is thursday on both that covid relief package as well as government funding joe? >> all right, ylan thanks very much cnbc's senior markets commentator mike santoli joins us now to talk about anything, really, that i feel like talking about. it's been a broad market rally can i ask you, mike, i'm not implying anything, what the hell happened to the pot stocks these two getting together a stock deal >> yeah. >> they're both single digit remember when that's all we talked about >> two years ago -- >> 140 bucks, tilray >> there's all this excitement over this broad legalization expectation. gets funneled through a handful of stocks that essentially don't have the businesses in the short term to sustain it they had tremendous kind of

bubble-like moves. they crashed you have a mopup consolidation of the industry which has still got this sort of tailwinds in terms of regulation. it's a crop business ultimately. that's what we're talking about. >> the prices. we are showing the s&p -- >> take a quick look here. real stair step action that we've seen been hovering around the 6700 mark for about a week. what's interesting, we've held above the prior highs. we create a new shelf. take a look at the breadth equal is the equal weighted russell 100,000. each one gets equal weight look over 6 months how it's been compared to the s&p 500. this huge launch up of the equal weighted version this month relative to the s&p 500 is a big contrast to what we saw here at the peek of the market back in september when it's a megacap. high liquidity market.

it's back down to the lows that we saw post covid here and that's very interesting. the ten year yield is about .9%. no real expectations that this accommodative backdrop is going to change any time soon. that's been the tail wind. this market is trading very, very much by the seasonal script in the last three or four months, joe. >> all right that's important stuff, mike, the underpinning you think stimulus and reopening are going to give this market plenty of juice for next year? i don't know whether that's consensus or nonconsensus? >> i think it's consensus. the nonconsensus piece would be that it's not really close to being priced in. in fact, the stimulus part still has a lot more to go in other words, the lag effect of all of the stimulus we saw this year is still going to play

out down the road. clearly the fed is going to talk to us and they're going to persuade everybody even if we get a couple of quarters of good growth we'll see if the market tests them on that as the months go on >> all right very good. andrew thanks, mike. >> thanks, guys. when we come back, a lot more this morning breaking retail sales data we'll bring it to you. a negative print at the bottom of the hour. that would be the first time since the pandemic raged out of control in the spring. as we head to break, check outcome cast, morgan stanley naming it a common pick and hiking the price target from 57 quk"etnsn hare "saw rur ia moment turn on my tv and boom,

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welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at futures now more than an hour before the open dow up about 61 points nasdaq up about 18 points. s&p 500 looking to open up about 8 points becky? >> andrew, thanks. it is make or break time for further federal stimulus with government funding as well as benefit deadlines within the next week and a half many small businesses in tight

financial circumstances have been waiting for assistance for months warren buffet commented on that yesterday when he joined us live on "squawk box." >> it's an economic war. we've shut down a lot of people in this particular induced recession and others are prospering and i think that the country owes it to the millions of small business people. >> joining us to talk about the impact of this long delay on stimulus is glenn hutchins north island chairman. glenn, i know we've kind of been fool me once, fool me twice, we keep thinking congress is going to act this time it does feel a little different. it does sound like they are serious, all parties are engaged, everyone is talking they say they're not leaving town until they get something done do you buy that? >> i think so because, becky, let's take a step back and look at where we are. there's a lot of very, very good

news about the vaccine you guys have done some great reporting on its rollout, how many we have, who gets it, but overall very, very good news for the future, but if you look at the state we are in, the pandemic is at the worst it's ever been. the labor market is very weak and the forecast for the u.s. and global economy for the year is very poor we've been through all the numbers but 300,000 people have died newly reported cases are up. hospital beds are at peak usage. seven day average deaths is going up the pace at which people is dying increased. took us 4 months to get from 100,000 to 400,000 and according to the university of washington the number of people could double and reach 539,000 by

april first, the rate could double job growth is very poor. number of jobs created has been going down we've only replaced about 12 in 22 million jobs lost 35% of the people unemployed are long term job losses unemployment is only up a little bit -- down a little bit, pardon me, because people have dropped out of the labor pool. the oecd thinks it's going to drop it emphasizes two thing, one, the consequences of long-term story result and emphasizing the need for good economic policy which is not to be withdrawn prematurely. that's the backdrop of where we are today. we have a very optimistic forecast for the future. hit it right on the head he emphasized stimulus

it's really, really important to get this done. >> you know, rick rieder said markets could continue to run from here because of not just what he thinks is going to happen with the economy from here, but just the idea that maybe people are underestimating the amount of aid and stimulus and what that's going to mean. when you are talking about more than 10% of the usgdp and people are underestimating what that will mean in terms of the dynamism for the greater economy. do you agree with that >> largely i think what we need to make a distinction between the effect of economic policy on the markets and the people whose livelihood and net worth is dominated in market activity and the people who work in the kind of jobs and industries that are affected the market prognosis is very good

not totally because of the things which she highlighted but also the notion that we're going to have long-term low interest rates which means alternatives to stocks are going to be very poor we have jamie dimon who said he wouldn't buy u.s. treasuries but if i were to sell the treasuries, i would sell them. they will be very low -- look like they'll be low for a very long time period which is good for stocks and the technology part of the stock market but we've still had very, very large parts of the economy are under performing significantly and he suggested in the areas where job growth is created in the last several years and particularly right now the -- in addition to the impact of the virus on -- which i've emphasized over many months, we also have women being disproportionately affected as a consequence.

so there are very important parts of the economy that still need to be supported and his baseline forecast includes it. now we can get into it in a minute but i think this package right now that's going to come out of this congress will be good it will be insufficient and i think you'll see a biden administration come forward with something much bigger after the inauguration >> glenn, let's talk about the fed. two-day meeting wrapping up today. there are basically two camps. either they're going to come out, people think, and be dovish or people think they're going to be very dovish which camp are you in? >> i think that's a distinction without a difference baseline expectations of the markets is lower right now is what i think about it. jay powell made it pretty clear the fed is not going to be premature and i think that's what we should do. >> glenn, you've spent so much time in technology and really understand this industry and i

just wonder what you think about these cyber attacks that we've heard that have taken place on government agencies and on public and private companies over the last nine months. this is pretty concerning but you're somebody who really has a geeld for it what do you think? >> it doesn't surprise me in the least. companies where i've taken responsibility for this, we've been focused on it in a very clear way. i think it's important now we've all been reminded that the russians are not our friends this attack probably certainly comes from cozy bear, the notorious russian internet hacking operation that clearly under the control of vladimir putin and the attacks across our economy shouldn't surprise us. i do hope we'll understand, have better pattern recognition going forward between friend and foe and understand >> what else is catching your attention right now?

what things are you paying attention to >> i've got something for you. three years ago roughly about right now, becky, you were all bitcoin all the time you remember that. december 2017. >> yeah. >> and right now the bitcoin price is within $100 of its all-time high in 2017. it's $19,800 this morning. actually $100 shy of where it hit in december of '17 but there's some real differences between this market and that one one is that it's driven not by retail investors that was very much a retail bubble phenomenon. this one is driven by major investors and companies. you've reported on paul tudor jones and druken miller's investment in bitcoin. a lot of companies have invested in it or like paypal offering it for payment service and the

number of people participating in bitcoin has significantly increased. that's worth focusing on while this pandemic has played its way out, one of the technology trends, digital currency is thriving if you are interested, i'll take more time on it, two things are notable this year are that stable coins, which are crypto assets pegging the u.s. dollar are seeing widespread adoption they're on a pace to transfer $1 trillion of value in 2020. $1 trillion of value being transferred by stable coins. and the usage is 1.5 million people per month also, something called decentralized finance or defi which uses automated programs and smart products it doesn't have intermediaries it has had $100 billion of trading volume, 31 times year over year.

and also at the beginning of $3 billion worth of loans outstanding which is up 20 year over year. the digital currency is starting to get traction. that's going to be reflected in the bitcoin price. i recommend you pay close attention to that. >> glenn, we've got to run we're out of time. i remember talking to you about bitcoin. i think you may have told me you sold some. is that true what do you hold right now >> right now -- i did sell my bitcoin. i didn't own bitcoin coins i owned it in the form of an etf. i didn't own the coins, i owned the etf. so i did sell that but i'm now broadly invested across a series of the companies using the technology in fact, i have a small venture fund that's now investing in it. we've got investments in that fund and also in personally over 20 some companies that use the

technology to build products and services i'm very excited about prospecting the segment. >> glenn, thanks a lot great to see you as all the. >> stay safe >> you, too. when we come back, top hedge fund manager kyle bass will join us to talk markets and u.s./china economic flashpoints that i sees rly teainhe joe biden administration stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off.

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welcome back to "squawk box. the $900 billion deal could be announced as soon as this morning according to jake sherman. no state and local aid and no liability shield jake sherman of politico reporting this, just crossing here on twitter. we'll keep our eyes peeled as i know folks around the country are trying to understand this would be considered a uniquely skinny deal in part because of the liability on the table is off if in fact this is what it's going to be. it would include direct payments and leave out state and local. >> andrew, there was reporting there was going to be two of them maybe this is half, you know

what i mean? >> right >> they do it serially but let's do this. it was supposed to be 750 and then i don't know. this looks like the whole thing. >> it was about $160 billion the latest package was $160 billion for state and local aid. maybe they're taking that and targeting that there would be income levels that would cut you off >> watch the futures we'll see. this is 900 billion. the way we talk about it. >> 5% of gdp almost. well, you know, rick rieder was right to point this out, it was $20 trillion, you can't get your head around these numbers, $20 trillion for u.s. gdp so $900 billion, you're talking 5%. >> right yeah. we'll keep our eyes on this.

we'll bring you the news as we get it if it comes in the meantime, we have breaking retail sales data we'll bring you that don't go anywhere. all of this news when quk" tus tethis"saw sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... boss: doug? sorry about that. umm...what...its...um... boss: you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc we're just a few seconds away from retail sales data for the month of november. in the meantime, we've been keeping an eye on the futures this morning yesterday the dow was up by 300 points, 330 points this morning it's indicated up 50 points. we've been higher all morning. the idea stimulus could get past s&p indicated up 5.5 points. the nasdaq up 15 points. nasdaq setting a new record yesterday. rick santelli is standing by the cme. rick, the numbers please >> reporter: yes we're waiting november's read. the advanced read on retail sales. we're looking for a negative number realize, this number hasn't been negative since april when it was at its worst negative, minus 14.7 and it delivered negative minus 1.1. so not only is it negative, it's

three times as bad as we anticipated at minus 1.1 comps for that april minus 14.7. followed by one of the biggest positives 18.3 we'll have to wait and see if that happens next month. autos and gas, minus 8 times strip out autos, minus 9 tenths. i'm waiting for the control number i haven't seen it run across the wire services yet. that is the number that comes the -- here it is. minus 5 tenths wasn't that fun to wait for. that's the worst control number since april as well. that gets inputted up the statistical food chain these are definitely misses. they underscore what cnbc has been talking about for quite a while now. we need to reload those american consumer wallets and hopefully before the end of business today we'll get these girls and guys

in washington to get their job done becky, back to you >> yeah. cross your fingers on that, rick we're going to have more on the data in a moment first, breaking news from the treasury department. eamon javers joins us. >> reporter: becky, that's right. the trump administration treasury department is declining to name china as a currency manipulator in this new foreign exchange report out this morning. breaking at this hour. they are, however, naming two countries for the first time, switzerland and vietnam named as currency manipulators in this foreign exchange report. the treasury department officials briefing reporters just a short time ago, said that both countries have upped their manipulation over the past year. that is why they have been designated this will trigger a round of enhanced engagement, basically diplomacy to encourage them to reset their currency practices we'll see whether that bears any fruit. obviously this decision coming

now just a couple of weeks ahead of a new administration coming in here in washington, dc. i asked treasury officials if they briefed the biden incoming team, janet yellen and her team. they had not briefed janet yellen and any of the biden officials but they said they will do so soon. this is a trump administration decision not naming china as a currency manipulator. they are naming switzerland and vietnam. >> they thiwhat are we talking about? central banks have so much influence over what's happening. what are they doing to manipulate their currencies? >> reporter: well, it's not clear. what officials on the call said is the intervention on the vietnamese side amounts to 5% of their gdp. on the swiss side it amounts to 14% of their gdp it could be a reflection of

what's going on in the global economy. the vietnamese economy being impacted because of u.s. tariffs on china, so much of the supply chain moving into vietnam. that's causing sort of an upheaval in the vietnamese economy. in switzerland, you are seeing a flight to safety in terms of covid with switzerland there might be an implication there as well. officials say they have talked to officials in both of those countries and the gist is they sort of don't buy the explanations and they want to work with them on smoothing this out. it's not clear that this will bear any fruit because under the law you can designate them as currency manipulators and it requires some period of negotiation, about a year's period of negotiation. after that there are remedies available up to and including perhaps tariffs but all of those decisions for any remedies will be up to the biden team when they come in it's not clear where they're going to land on this, becky >> eamon, thanks very much good to see you.

>> you bet. let's get back to the weaker than expected retail sales number do you want to talk about that or the currency manipulation i know we only have a little bit of time. >> just a little bit of each maybe. real quickly we've been waiting to see with the u.s. economy be able to withstand the lack of stimulus and there have been surprising numbers, especially on the retail side. one of the things that happened this morning is some of that strength was revised away. give you a number rick didn't give you which is the 0.37% retail number was revised away now at 0.1% decline. turning to the month of november, there's weakness in motor vehicles general merchandise stores have taken it on the chin electronics fell that may be because of some strength in the prior month. really this is underscored the other news story you've reported this morning, becky, which is

that -- the idea there's a need for stimulus in the economy. the data is beginning to show it we saw it in the claims. we'll see claims tomorrow. there's a need for stimulus, the idea that the economy is going to withstand without it is proving to be not true back to you. andrew >> thanks, steve as we mentioned earlier, politico's jake sherman just reporting that we might have a $900 billion relief deal that could be announced as soon as this morning would include direct payments but not state and local aid and there would not be a liability shield either. we're joined by senator steve danes of montana senator, good morning to you what can you tell us are you familiar with the state of play here >> yeah, well, negotiations went through the night. leader mcconnell has been very clear with all of us we're going to pass some kind of stimulus relief package before we go home for the holidays. i'm optimistic, we'll have a

package this morning as you articulated, it would exclude the state and local government relief. the reason the republicans are opposed to that is we don't want to see relief going to states that already had fiscal problems prior to covid we want to make sure everything we're doing is targeted on the covid challenge. it also would not have the liability protection that's something i support we need that i don't want to see a trial lawyer pandemic going on across the country. we need to protect our businesses and schools from the trial lawyers. i'm cautiously optimistic we'll see this $900 billion package passed today. >> just to put some specifics to it, this would include direct payments effectively 9$900 billion of straight direct payments is that what we're talking about here >> no, it would have -- one of the most successful packages we

passed was the ppp there's $300 billion part of ppp. you have relief for hospitals, front line health care workers and heroes that are out there. we also have additional resource to accelerate the distribution of the vaccine we have dollars in there for continued testing. so we've got to stay focused on how we brianne end to the pandemic, and that is ultimately going to be through the end of the vaccine. the news from pfizer and moderna, the vaccine news is really the christmas present to the nation that's the best news we've heard in a long time that's why i'm confident we're going to put an end to the pandemic. >> and to also understand what's better in this bill at this point, no liability protection that's something that you wanted that it was not a bipartisan issue. democrats were anxious on the other side but then, of course, the democrats were pushing for

the help for the states and cities and that's something that you didn't want. is that where the compromise, if you will, has come >> yeah, it has. the liability protection we think is very important. i'm a chemical engineer by degree, i'm not an attorney. we don't need to see a trial lawyer pandemic. we want protections so we don't have this outbreak of lawsuits which could be a real headwind to the continued rebound of this economy. that has been clearly a very partisan kind of fight our democratic colleagues do not want it. on the state and local government, again, we want to make sure this package is targeted we don't want to see taxpayer dollars going to bail out states that already had financial problems prior to covid. that's been the partisan divide. that's been now taken out of this $900 billion package and that's why because those two pieces have been taken out, there's a path or bipartisan agreement. i think we'll see this probably get passed before the weekend.

>> let me ask you about the vaccine and the rollout that's taking place this week, in part because my understanding is that you were part of the pfizer trial. >> i was so prior to coming to the united states senate i worked for procter & gamble i spent 13 years working for p&g. i used to be involved in fda regulated product launches what we did is put in place $10 billion in the c.a.r.e.s. package back in march to ensure that we could run parallel paths of procurement of materials and manufacturing while we were going through the fda trials so that once the fda gave the green light, like they have done for pfizer this month, like they're probably going to do for moderna this month as well, we would have tens of millions of doses ready to go at the time the fda give the green light had we not done that back in march, we'd be waiting another 6 months before we'd have the vaccines available for the american people. now pfizer was doing one of

their trials in montana. it was random. my mom called me up and said, steve, pfizer's doing a trial in boseman, which i did they were looking for participants i enrolled in august i received my first vaccine of the covid vaccine and three weeks later i got the booster. just like getting the flu shot, but the good news is i found out i was actually getting the actual vaccine half the participants got the place placebo, it was random, a blind test i got an antibody test done in october and it showed that i had the antibodies and so i'm grateful for that. i got the part of the science that moved us forward and, again, the best news that we've heard in a long time is that this pfizer vaccine got approved by the fda this is a christmas gift to the american people. i think moderna will follow suit shortly. we have a chance to probably have 20 million plus americans vaccinated by the end of this month. 100 million americans vac sib

nated by the end of q1 this is how we stop the pandemic not unlike pandemics like polio. it was when dr. salk said they had a vaccine, people cheered, they put an end to polio we'll put an end to covid because of science, vaccines and these innovations. >> senator, thank you for joining us and thank you for helping us better understand what may be news very, very soon we also are very happy that you've taken the vaccine and had a good experience with it it sounds like. hopefully so many other americans will have the same opportunity very, very soon. thank you. >> thank you >> joe >> that's amazing. chemical engineer. i guess when they got to the senate they said, you have to forget half of what you want to know if you want to fit in here. last two years of college, just wipe that out of your -- coming up, we'll speak with hedge fund manager and noted china hawk kyle bass about what he sees as potential economic and security

pitfalls in china for the incoming joe biden administration you won't believe, probably haven't heard of what's going on on 200 square miles in texas with china jpmorgan downgraded united, jetblue and spirit airlines from over weight to underweight we're coming right back.

mentioned a few minutes ago

the treasury department labeling switzerland and vietnam currency manipulations. joining us, kyle bass. kyle, it's good to see you this sounds like we recently lost the spy it just reads like a spy novel so you have a people's liberation army general acquiring 200 square miles of land in texas right next to the u.s. -- to the largest pilot training base for the air force, laughlin training base to put in wind energy but there's no wind in this area is that what's happening >> good morning. it's a pleasure to be here the wind resource in the devil's river watershed down there in texas is one of the worst in the state. the wind resources in texas that are best are all in the northern panhandle area

it's suspects. imagine you have a pla general, someone who controls nearly 2/3 of the leadership in texas when you look at the runway he's built on one of the main ranches, it's looking at the runways on the islands in the south china sea. >> they looked at it and said, fine >> no. that's not exactly true. they gave conditional approval to one of the purchases. a texas businessman fronted for the chinese and bought ten ranches and flipped it all, all ten of them to this general and so i think they have all of this under a larger review process. they can reinstitute reviews given new data i've been assured that that review process is now ongoing.

>> it would allow the chinese to do what? they would be able to watch our training exercises they could provide a grid. entry into a grid and they're very good at being tacticians. they're coming into the u.s. where we all want alternative energy to prosper. they take this concept of alternative energy and they're going to build 700 foot wind turbines is the plan and they're going to plug into the air pot grid which causes an even larger national security problem. so this land is right at the foot of the runway of one of our largest air force training bases in the country including that, we have them wanting to plug directly into our grid these things are unconscionable. we can't possibly allow this to

happen. >> kyle, let's take it -- let's just go down this road the chinese have funded a lot -- according to you, facebook's fact checkers, and the chinese communist party has affected every asset of social media because everybody -- did they want joe biden to be elected so we'd be softer on china? you just said that trump was soft with zte or you said it in the notes, that he was soft on zte to get that pseudo trade deal done. why would -- i don't know -- trump was just as good for china, according to you, as joe biden would be. >> well, i know you want me to jump into the politics i'll just say giving zte a pass just to get a coveted trade deal, you know, we have to -- we have to separate kind of our policies from economic growth

policies and national security line and i think president trump gave in on zte trying to get that trade deal >> all right. >> i think that was giving away u.s. national security. >> you're pointing out that china is funding facebook fact checkers we know about that whole situation with facebook. are you saying they funded the fact checkers to go easy on the current president-elect? >> i don't -- i president-elect? >> i don't have expertise in -- truly in politics, believe it or not. i'm very much more focused on national security. >> this seems a lot -- there is a lot of national security concerns, though, if for you and -- we said you were going to talk about where to put your money for 2021, this is very, you know -- you think this is relevant and china has a reason for doing these things >> china has effectively

infiltrated our entire social media complex. we all know it twitter had to cancel hundreds of thousands chinese bot accounts we have chinese wolf warriors and diplomats all over twitter, which is a service that is not allowed in china i believe we need to engage in multiple areas of reciprocity with china, allowing them to infiltrate and expose every crack and edifice of our open society and our free speech is really going to harm us over the long run i think we need to rethink allowing chinese national policies to be -- propaganda to be proliferated across the united states, without our ability to inject our own views of liberal democracies in china. >> kyle, some of the toothpaste is out of the tube a lot of people think that china is on the radar of a lot of people after the last four years. so i don't think -- the biden

administration can't put that back in the tube, can it they have to be tough on china they're not going to let all this just happen in plain view >> yeah, i mean, i hope -- i hope tony blinken and jake sullivan, you know, moved forward with some of the things that they talked about, as the incoming administration takes hold in january. they say that they will never trade human rights for a trade deal and we need to hold them to that as we all know, china's engaging in ethnic and cultural genocide and i still don't understand why we interface with the nation as a whole, given their gross human rights violations and our supposedly woke culture here in the united states. >> any quick investment tips for -- if someone gave you a lot of money for your hedge fund, what should we do in 2021? >> i think you should be investing in all of the areas that the biden energy and climate plan are going to focus

on electrical power grid, the transmission lines, and alternative energy i think those sectors are going to grow in the next four years in a way i don't think people are believing today. >> i'm fascinated by this entire subject that you told us about, especially down in texas and i know you got a close-up view of what is going on, so come back and, i mean, they're not -- i don't think they're our friends necessarily either frenemies, maybe, like the russians but no friend, just enemy? >> i think they're the enemy and once we realize that, we'll be able to protect our national security a little bit better >> another thing i'm going to lose sleep over. thank you, kyle bass, appreciate all your insight today andrew >> thank you, joe. when we come back, jim cramer's first take on the trading day ahead. check out bitcoin, it just hit 20,000 don't go anywhere.

"squawk" returns right after this

all right, let's get to cnbc headquarters and check in with cramer jim, what do you think is stimulus going to happen at

this point, this aid relief from washington >> i think it will i think that's one thing that the market has been saying the other thing is, take a look at stanley black & decker, raising its organic growth from 3 to 5 to 10%. we're all going to go to home depots, take that extra money, make our places great and the people who are in bad shape get something from the government. maybe it lets them stay in their house, stay in their apartment so what this would be very, very good, to the point i know when i talk about it with david and carl, it does make the rest of the news pale by comparison. i think this is a major, major thing for the american public -- for the public and that's one of the reasons why we have been so strong >> yeah, and for the economy overall. >> yeah. >> you're going to pick up coverage in a couple of minutes and keep talking about what this means. it is great to see you i liked what you said last night on "mad money" about this, this is going to happen. >> thank you. >> i think you're right. >> thank you very much >> yeah.

good to see you. >> yep >> okay. meantime, dom chu joining with us big stocks making big moves ahead of the opening bell. >> aside from bitcoin, let's talk about some of the stock on the move this morning so far we have twitter which is up nearly 3% right now, roughly 230,000 shares of volume premarket because the social media company gets upgraded by jpmorgan to an overweight from a prior neutral. the target price goes to 65 bucks. it was $52 they decided more strength in the overall online ad market next year and a bigger rebound for twitter since it was hit harder relatively by ad spending declines during the pandemic those shares up 3% now then shares of chipotle mexican grill, up a percent or so roughly 2,000 shares of premarket volume the quick service mexican chain upgraded by analysts at stifel to buy from hold and target price to 1500, it was 1400 they like the resilience during

the pandemic and see more growth possibilities as consumer mobility increases next year post pandemic. we'll end on exxonmobil, up over a percent, roughly 17,000 shares of volume premarket. upgraded to buy from neutral at goldman sachs. the target price goes up to 52, it was 42. yes, still concerns about capital spending and the future of the dividend, but exxonmobil is trending in the right direction in addressing many of those concerns and the current discount valuation provides a relatively attractive entry point, so we'll watch those stocks on the move premarket andr andrew, joe, becky, back over to you guys. >> thank you for that. quick final check on the markets, half hour before the open and we very well may now get a stimulus deal, which is pushing things -- i would say pushing things higher before we got that news, actually come down a little bit. we'll talk about that. >> retail sales. >> and retail sales didn't help.

>> yeah. >> up 80 or 90 points. only up 7 now. if there is stimulus coming -- >> wouldn't have thought the retail -- maybe the retail sales will drive this, by the way. >> stimulus. maybe too little too late. yeah >> we will see and then bitcoin, crossing 20,000 i'm sure we'll talk more about all of that tomorrow make sure you join us tomorrow we'll see if there is a snow day tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber futures steady lots of moving pieces this morning including the reports of a fiscal relief package being finalized as soon as today good thing, because retail sales did show their first drop in seven months it is fed day. watch bitcoin crossing 20k our road map begins with,

quote, getting closer. that's the message from senate leader mcconnell on the potential for a prechristmas covid aid package. >> as covid cases and deaths remain near records, the white house in talks with pfizer regarding additional doses of its vaccine. this