have doses for the american people. >> sounds like we should stay tuned to hear about that supply deal with pfizer >> absolutely. market closes around the flat line it has been around the 3700 level for about ten days that does it for closing bell. "fast money" begins right now. i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's tradier lineup -- tonight on "fast money." the three reasons why he sees another 23% upside for the market next year plus bitcoin soaring above 21,000 for the first time ever and lennar we will bring you numbers as soon as they cross

but we start with the fed. j. powell wrapping up the final meeting of the year. who said rates would remain low for a very, very, third very, long time. brian kelly all in what do you do with this information? >> that's the question we have known they have been all in for a long time that's probably why they didn't get that much rate or market reaction from today's news the next step for the fed we have to worry about or think forward is what will happen if the economy does pick up if we get this consumption boom, the vaccine works and everybody gets inoculated and then we get a consumption boom, everybody wants to fly and travel, does that increase inflation. then what does the fed do? they have committed for several

years to keep rates low. they may have inflation raise higher at 4% you would still get a negative real yield which would be positive for assets including stocks >> guy, i think this is underscored by the feds tweak in the language in the statement. the conundrum what does it do if the economy picks up so now it is an outcome based goal until further progress is made towards maximum employment and price stability goals. so you have to wonder what does the fed do at that point >> i don't think they know the answer to that question. i am not trying to be glib, i don't think they know the answer be careful what you wish for because i think it's clear to everybody they are hoping to start to see an uptick in

inflation and steve could probably stick to this they wanted it in a slow and stair step way when it comes i think it will come in a wave i don't think they will be able to control it and i don't think they know what to do on the backside of that i have been concerned about their insertion into the markets for quite sometime clearly the equity markets haven't cared. maybe i shouldn't either but to brian's point, next year will be fascinating if all of these things come to fruition. those are things we want to wish for, but be careful of what you wish for >> should we worry about that, brian, when we see perhaps the economy take a leg lower in december as we see more areas go into lockdown?

>> i don't think just yet. i think the next couple months we will see economic activity that is going to make a lot of skeptics think we are headed towards a double dip recession there is a lot of optimism built in about the vaccine and herd immunity, but i think that will take longer than people think. when you think about where interest rates are, we know the fed will stay accommodating. and it will not be enough to bridge some of our most vulnerable vit zens over the next few months when the virus is raging over the country coming back to the stock market, in 2019 there was no earnings

and it went up 30% earnings are likely to be down 15% and it's up 15%. at some point something has to give guy worded it nicely, be careful what you wish for. any volatility on rates will be bad for the markets in the near term >> what is the message after this afternoon, tim? >> the statement was a nonevent. i think the sense that markets have risen, it is almost a pat on the back for the fed. the fed was aggressive and more aggressive than policymakers i think the message that we are going to do what it takes. we have a tool box, et cetera. if anything, yes, it is the sim

trid -- sim tridynamic peter was on last week and he writes good stuff about the absurdity of the fed i agree. when they tried to take the fed out and it was a disaster. we have to be careful. what we have now is artificial in terms of the markets' support system at some point it will be taken away, but it will not be soon. and i am not running for the door >> the purchases and changes that could happen into the future let's bring you in

you were on the nice zoom call steve, what do you think >> i don't agree with what has been said here for a couple of reasons. i think you are judging the chairman's pain wrong. i don't think he's worried about what happens when the economy accelerates. he's keenly focused on what happens in the next three or four months. you can't have a discussion about when the market takes off without the discussion of where we are when it takes off the trajectory -- i am imitating the picture for powell but if you think about it, we could be down here or up here and could be going like this or like that. it depends how we get over here. it's important to think about

what the damage is that will happen to the economy in the next four or five months i will take on my good friend and musical colleague mr. seymour. in pegging asset purchases to interest rates we didn't ever have that guidance before. that tells you i think the fed will be involved in asset purchase for quite a long time further. i think that's bullish for the market i think there will be a time when they have the discussion about bringing down the asset purchases. the fed gave us guidance on that which it had not done before linked it to interest rates and told us it would be happening for a while. >> it was guidance, although some were wringing their hands because substantial progress is ambiguous in some respects

but that it will be left with $120 billion of asset purchases for the foreseeable future >> that's right. and we will be having a discussion that we will be bringing that number down over time especially if the economy does better than expected. and i think there is a reason why they separated they said 80 billion and 40 billion. i think the mortgage number may be the mark to come down first they will do it in a measured way. i think what happened, the fed took out a paper and wrote guidance for asset purchases, but there is a lot of blank space and i think they will fill that in over way >> yes, there is cold snow out

there, but isn't the circular the fed is pinning the long end of the bond market, too, aren't they i totally respect and you give great respect into the nuances of fed policy. i don't think any of us are suggesting that the market is strong but the dynamic doesn't seem different than yesterday when they control the long end of the curve for now. >> i think you are right about that, tim. and if they don't control it spot on, they can't hold on. buy short, sell long, flatten the curve or cause it to invert if they wanted to. i don't think they want to do that powell has been playing a fiscal waiting game on pos si

-- policy. if this package does pass of $900 billion, that will help a little if the talks on stimulus and relief had fallen apart, we would be having a different conversation today >> steve, always great to speak with you one consequence has been a snu surge in bitcoin sur surging past 20,000. and there has been news flow driving that as well >> a couple of things driving it besides the macrotail winds. you had over the last week or so mass mutual said they will be buying into bitcoin. corporate treasuries with square

buying in. you have had long, strong handed buyers coming in and there is only 21 million bitcoin that will everexist. 18.5 -- in an environment just like with the fed, you will just continue to print money well, i can buy gold or bitcoin which is digital gold with a venture capital ticker >> some are saying i am going to buy bitcoin instead of cash on the balance sheet which is the strategy you might be asking what about the technicals carter sent this chart along and

this is what he wrote -- this move is a proper breakout an old-fashioned textbook breakout guy, what do you think >> he's right. early in this case it has been spot on. i think his stewardship throughout this has been fantastic. i am not trying to pat naya that if this was just a chart of caterpillar, we would probably be saying the same thing but you could very well be setting up for the next rate higher >> i think we just played that game we have done that before if you saw a chart and didn't

know what it was and didn't see the axis, what would you think about it and that's basically what you are saying. dan, couple that along with all of the news pegged that brian kelly mentioned. what do you think? >> i agree with guy. b.k. has been all over this. >> i will mention this you know what has stolen a lot of thunder from? gold, gld. this thing bounced over the last week or so right as bitcoin was consolidating, about 10% from its all time high. gld looks like it's poised to play catch-up to bitcoin and you may see some money flow back

into that because there are a lot of investors who don't know how to buy and hold bitcoin. what do you call it? >> digital gold. >> hodl. >> we have much more on our website. check it out and laying out three reasons why he's super bullish, in fact the biggest bull on the street heading into the new year.

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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earningsalert on lennar diana has the details. >> it is one of the largest home builders it showed a strong beat on shares revenue of 6.8 billion versus estimates of 6.65 billion. backlog up 21% and deliveries down 2% but that's stronger than

the street expected and due to the initial spring sales from covid. the chairman said -- now that, of course, helps boost price. the average sales price was unchanged for delivery, but new orders raised to $412,000 from.394,000 now the ceo said --

>> we get housing starts tomorrow numbers have not been that great there. the ceo saying you need to pump up construction. >> thank you >> where do you go this is thanks if part to the feds continuing to buy back securities >> yeah. the rates will stay strong one of the troubling parts for housing trade is there is support for materials. you can see the top ten waitings in shb is not home builders. it's whirlpool, trane, restoration hardware, even home

depot. if you had to buy one of those stocks it would probably be home depot over time. >> builders or wider basket, guy? >> interesting, but i think tim nailed it down we talk about lennar, toll brothers, dhi. they are similar companies, but i would stay with lennar here. one of the main reasons is diana mentioned the value is up. and they give full year guidance for next year which is remarkable in this environment they sand bagged, so even if you put a ten-year multiple it should tried at $86 or $87 we saw. >> dan >> i think tim has had the housing trade, the home depot trade correct.

i will tell you this that home depot hasn't kept strength it is a horrible chart i think you see a break at 250 if we don't get a break with a fiscal stimulus, i think home depot is done for the winter >> here is what is coming up next >> where does he see stocks heading in the new year? prediction ahead twitter atear, but one bird says it's time to take profits.

welcome back to "fast money. it was another record day on nasdaq with it closing at a record high. he is wall street's biggest bull he is on the fast line marco, it's always nice to speak with you >> thank you, melissa. >> today we saw leadership in tech you don't expect that next year. you see a few vs >> we expect vaccines to drive economic growth especially in the second half and we think that's going to cause value so that's our view.

we also see an environment of decline. vaccines, value and declining volatility >> you made clear in the notes i read that you don't think what happened with the fed today was impactful when it comes to the markets or marketcall, but should we start to worry in context? we start to worry about the economy actually snapping back so quickly that it shows signs of heating up and inflation starts to take the punch bowl away >> i am not worried about that for the following reasons. first, it will take a while for the population to get vaccinated and the economy to get fully reopened secondly, they are not planning to raise rates until 2023 and

said they would be willing to tolerate inflation for the last decade we had inflation undershooting 2% so i think they can be patient. and the economic recovery story. we think the market will anticipate that and move ahead >> marko, it's tim -- >> brian kelly >> go ahead, brian >> so, marko -- sorry -- as we see this increase, fed is probably going to look for interest inflation around 4% or more they have said that. does that impact your forecast at all >> so, not initially we think the optic inflation expectation, boost in value and cyclicals. and they will keep the rate at

zero they are still purchasing so keeping the lid, so some extent on the back end of the curve we think we will see some strengthening. it doesn't necessarily help the growth but we think there is going to be some very broad index flows that's going to keep sort of also that growth and momental growth, so we don't see the inflation growth to be negative. >> tim >> we played a game making up acronyms which was rise, cyclicals on emerging markets. what do you think on that? >> weaker dollar, stronger

growth, recovery from coronavirus, we think all of that helps value and emerging markets. emerging markets are explosioned to inflation expectations. we see the economy heat up in the second half of the year that gives a lift to emerging markets. it is still below its 2000 peak. we think it could be reemerging. they are part of the same trade. >> given where valuations are now, is tech short going 2021? >> because we have this s&p price target, that cannot be achieved unless tech also goes up i wouldn't say you should short it these are companies innovating, generating revenues.

i wouldn't necessarily say short it but i do believe value, if you look at sectors like energy materials, financials as well. i think they will outperform we think this tide will lift >> marko, always great to speak with you thank you. happyholidays. >> thank you >> guy, what do you make of his call >> it's interesting. jerome powell was asked about asset prices he said pes are high but rates are low so pes don't matter or are not relevant which is fantastic i guess so any target makes sense when the chairman after the federal reserve makes a comment like that i don't think we go there in a straight line.

i stand by that. we don't get there from here and i think there is a real good chance we revisit this 3400 point at some point on the s&p 500. >> i will go back to tim because you are the big resource trade proponent. why not just stick with technology, where the growth is? >> right, that connects with me. global pmis and where we bottomed and marko pointed out drivers in emerging markets, weaker dollar and reacceleration and we want to see some asset price reinflation. i think that is an important trade. guy is highlighting something

that should be troubling but i think overall people are getting that mulligan on 2021 for sure and looking to 2022. but i think the drivers for the resource trade make them outperform >> dan >> if we are talking about mulligans and pes not mattering, i will give you three charts apple, microsoft and amazon. they have been consolidating massive year-to-date gains they are still below the all-time highs and they look like they want to explode. if they are bullish and it looks like the market will kee grinding higher, and if some of these stocks are hardest hit and because of the pandemic have gone too far, too fast, then get back into the at maga train because it looks like that thing

is about to leave the station. >> coming up, how you can trade without getting burned hear the music w have a fast pitch on deck weill bring you that name when "fast money" returns i'm still on the road to what's next. and i'm still going for my best. even though i live with a higher risk of stroke due to afib not caused by a heart valve problem. so if there's a better treatment than warfarin, i'm on top of that. eliquis. eliquis is proven to reduce stroke risk better than warfarin.

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welcome back to "fast money. twitter jumps after hours. you may remember this back in june >> the sentiment is horrible wall street analysts hate this stock. five sales on this thing no one likes it. it doesn't trade well. i say jack dorsey, the ceo of the company is stepping up and will come out a better platform because of it. last thing, the charts are so bad -- >> since then twitter is up more than 80% dan, you pitched the name once again in november. >> i was a bit screamy on that

call it has gotten back to the late 2014 high which could be technical resistance that was my target in the mid to low 50s. i am going to move on. i have done well-being a buyer of this. it looks like it's well loved. i want to pull this thing back and then set up the analyst in the new year they just announced they are shutting down periscope. they haven't gotten anything right. hopefully they can get things right on the next leg. but i am pulling out now >> tim seymour, if memory serves me right this was your final trade last night >> you have a great memory i am on the other side of screamy dan although i want to say that was a great call by dan. i have been long twitter through this period. i stay long. i look at the ad growth and i'm

impressed. and the ebida is not where i would want it. after a big run, i think you go higher >> twitter and capri holdings, stock is up nearly 90% our next guest says there is more room. >> today the pris wce was upped 50 bucks what do you like most about capri given the run it has had >> we have liked this stock for a while. we still like it essentially you have earnings acceleration prior to the break we talked about the fed setting the pe that is true, but the consumer still sets the pe.

you have numbers on november 5 if you look at traffic website data, some 38% month on month these are brands resonating with the consumer when you talk to this company and ask them how they are going to grow sales, they are bullish on china they think the two brands they acquired are underpenetrated and they hope to increase stores in china 200 to 300 and shut stores in the u.s we agree with that by 2025 china will be 50% of luxury sales we think that is the right approach and doable. the second reason we like it, it is a margin expansion story. they have margins in the mid

20s. jimmy chew and versacie were at -- we think this is doable. they are able to reduce 30 to 40% while increasing prices 10 to 15% this is what analysts are starting to incorporate into their models we like it for earnings. we like it for margin expansion. and we like what we are paying for it even after this run if you take today's share price, you are paying 10.5 price our foi 1 estimate we think this estimate is conservative this is what the company was doing prepandemic. and let's try ang late

luxury group globally is a six times sales multiple we can debate all day long if michael kors is luxury you are getting michael kors for free and they did 4 billion of sales last year so they are worth something. i can make the argument that one times is conservative. this was an unloved stock that traded like a department store i think 10 1/2 times earning is a great value for a portfolio of luxury brands.

>> what a pitch. guy, do you have a question? >> my question is i'm sure you have positions that you are tactical, will trade around, but clearly, given what you just said, there is no reason to be tactical despite the fact the stock went from 9 to 44 since march or april, this thing is -- thank you. we will see you soon it is time to vote are you buying barbara ann's pitch on capri guy? >> you remember steve grasso pitched this a while back. can you read my board, melissa >> blue grotto

>> notice i wrote it in blue do you know where it is? >> i don't >> the blue grotto is in capri i think this stock can go higher >> this stock has been rocking and reeling. so at 40 bucks i think this is a sell there is a reason it was a discount to the sum of the parks. i still think the mall is moving into a headwind. i think it is a great place to take some profits. >> dan >> i am with tim on that i am a sell right here at 40 bucks, but i would be a buyer. she seemed convicted she would be buying in on the down side. she made a great pitch if they get back to their peak

earnings two years ago just as that china expansion is happening, this thing will be much higher. i just don't think you get there from here as guy adame likes to say. >> brian kelly, where do you like to stand? >> i am going to be with guy if you are a kid who forgot his homework because i don't have my fancy smart board like guy has i love that they are expanding in china and shutting down stores here. if you want to wait for a dip, knock yourself out, but i like the long-term story of this name >> three of if you guys had no white boards it looks like you went to the recycling bin and pulled out a piece of paper >> viewers, are you buying barbara ann's pitch? we will have the results at the end of the show. >> are you excited about the

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welcome back to "fast money. starbucks with weaker than forecast sales it wasn't just starbucks southwest also raising red flags after raising their daily cash burn outlook saying cancellations are up are these serious concerns as more lockdowns come into play? >> i think we are going to see this i think we will also see in retail, mel, we will see promotional activity once we see the christmas season pass, i think things will get lean we have seen consumer spending data that has been lean over the past months. even if we get stimulus, this is not putting money in people's pockets where they will spend. this is staying afloat

i am worried about consumer spending over the next couple months. >> should we be worried about china for starbucks, tim >> you are highlighting what i would highlight. first quarter starbucks china sales will be normal they will have made it through this cycle that's their expectation the fact they were down on the comps is not a surprise. they keep pace with the move higher in covid. this is a reopening. as bad and awful and scary as it is right now, we can see the other side on starbucks and it is a company that has done well during covid we are on lockdown mode, people aren't going to starbucks, but they will. >> b.k., where do you stand?

>> we ask the question is this a sign of a weaker consumer. i think it's a sign of a bifurcated consumer. starbucks, there will be people that go every single day, but somewhat of an aspirational aspect the peppermint latte at $6, with this lockdown on, you don't buy it any more. i would rather go the resource play i am left with a weak point. >> i think those suckers may be more than $6 at this point are you buying barbara ann's pitch on capri ♪

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datadog, the stock gaining momentum bonawyn? >> taking a look at datadog, it was extremely active, 12 times more calls than outputs. this is almost twice as much as we have seen the options are implying about a 3.5% move. the trade jumped out to me about 9,000 of the december 105 calls were at $1.50. upside of 106.50 between now and friday short-term trading, lots of

activities >> dan, what did you think >> good spot looking at that technical setup, it looks like it wants to make a push back towards 120. looks like a good way to do it remember with those weekly calls, when you are trading them, if you get the direction wrong by a smidge you lose all of that money so you have to be convicted or use stops when trading them but i like this. >> thank you for more options action tune in to the show friday at 5:30 p.m there is still time to cast your vote on tonight's fast pitch head on erov and vote. we will have the results when we come back. i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter,

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welcome back to fast the vote was close on capri. but doesn't look like they were buying it. 52% said no and 48% said yes

you have to wonder if barbara ann actually listens and cares >> if she listens to us that was a lot of information, very good fundamental analysis i'm buying starbucks they will be stronger coming out of this. >> brian kelly >> marko talked about a weak dollar i think you can play eem, e merging markets. asia has done a better job, reopening sooner eem is the way to play it. >> dan nathan? >> we talked about bitcoin you can buy it it has run a heck of a lot but i say you buy guy's gold i think it just bounced across technical support. play back for a move of 190 over

the next couple months >> guy >> gld has a georgetown connection just to get that in there. paas, pan american silver goes higher >> silver and gold thanks my mission is simple to make you money. there is always a bull market some where, i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to "mad money. i am trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer what a day, dow finishing