tv Fast Money CNBC December 17, 2020 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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it is a one-shot vaccine >> and it is available 20 yes, 1 abstained. do the benefits outway teigh the risk 20 yes and 1 abstaining. seconds ago. >> that does it for us >> i'm melissa lee this is "fast money. tonight bitcoin goes bonkers, it soars to new record highs. plus tesla, what sent shares into overdrive and later, dan is winding up for a fast pitch, why he says this car stock is driving higher from here that name straight ahead
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but we want to get to that breaking news from the fda meg? >> the fda just voted, an outside committee of advisers. this vote was 20 in favor, none against one abstention so there could be use authorization as soon as tomorrow or saturday that would trigger 6 million doses going out. and another 2 million expected to go out next week. this is a big moment the more vaccines that get on the market, the more supply for the nursing homes and workers.
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this is the first product for moderna to get on the market and a brand new technology for both of these companies, moderna and biontech so the second positive vote. >> positive concept for moderna which concept relies on the rni. >> this is fantastic good for moderna we have gone back and forth in terms of the stock congratulations to all of the people behind it the rna, versus five and six years ago. in terms of the stock. i still think it is a little
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long in the tooth. you saw what happened to pfizer. it's now trading at 38 so the stock, if we have a new event. i think you stay with the biotech etf. it has been working and i think it will continue to work >> tim >> i do, too multiple breakout. a number of companies with strong balance sheets. a number of companies in pipelines for a fair amount of upside a great call and being out in front. they put a hold on the stock at a 150 target their pipeline and approach to the oncology drugs are bullish in the long run, but in the short time a tremendous run.
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i want to talk about some of the jobless claims data which is scary, but we have to be looking at this where we will be on the other side there will be such pent up demand, that's what i would look at >> the fda must vote on approval for use of this particular vaccine. but, karen, in terms of what we need right here right now, this is great in the longer term. but right now we saw november retail sales deteriorating, it may not come soon enough >> may not come soon enough for those people if you are unemployed and can't make your rent i don't know if you have forbearance or not but for the market i think it is
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soon enough. i think we will be looking through to where the other side is we have the shutdown in march and april. we hoped there would be a vaccine. we didn't expect it would be this quick and this effective. obviously the market is in a very different place i think we are going to look back to some sort of normalcy. i agree with tim, i am optimistic about the market. >> does this reinforce reopening trade and reinforce the notion that the stay at hope trade should be over >> here is the thing the s&p is at all time high, where year after year at this time of year it collapses. back when karen was talking about march or april, we had little visibility what the impact or long-term scars to the economy would be, the health
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implications at that time we thought our best bet was herd immunity. we do have the vaccines, but they came at a cost, human and economic the fact that the stock market is at these all-time high is discounting a lot of good news the numbers we saw two weeks in a row and talk about the unemployment numbers, we know that is a mirage we know the unemployment number is higher than 6.7%. work from home trade extinguished jobs going forward, accelerated certain technological things that were going to happen. i think our economy will be saddled even once we get the vaccine out to our entire population and reach herd immunity
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i don't think we are out of the market if the market wants to close at a high, i think there will be hell to pay in 2021. we can't get to all of these bullish targets. there has to be a sustained pullback at some point >> i think that's fair with s&p being at a high record but some will look at names like cruise lines, that is not at a 52-week high does this news underscore the notion that these sorts of trades have life in them >> dan is right to be concerned about fundamentals matching up with markets look at the aaai index this is a bullish extreme.
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but look at the fed reinforcing their support for the markets. lock at the dynamics in terms of br bread t breadth of the market. you have to take this all with some sense of -- call it a rational thought process which i think we have all had. as long as we have support systems including fiscal stimulus around the corner, i hit it early 2021 will be okay we have an earnings alert on fedex. shares are sinking after hours frank? >>. >> very good but maybe just not good enough when it comes to margins and growth
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that is what appears to have fedex going lower. the numbers were great beat on the top line and bottom line more than 80 cents above estimates. fedex gets about half of its revenues from express. however, ground which has been a growth driver for this company -- >> we lost frank holland though. it looks like the residential area was the source of some of the disappointment karen, you own this stock, what did you make of this quarter >> i like the headline numbers i tried to look through the q. i did look at expenses they had some high incidental
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expenses ground which frank was talking about. if the stock is down at all on lack of guidance, i think that's ridiculous i don't think companies should give guidance anyway, particularly in the environment we are in, so a little dispi disappointing but this was not trading at some crazy multiple i would like to listen to the conference call. i will listen to it later. it is at 282, i would be a buyer around there >> wall street has turned bullish on this stock recently price target has gone up about 50% in the last three months to an average of 313 bucks. that's part of the reason it has gone up.
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>> at a certain point we all got on board fedex was doing a lot of things poorly for a long time i think they would admit they seemed to figure it out four or five months ago. the concerning thing -- frank was going to say this. the ground numbers were fine in terms of revenue but what was disappointing was operating revenue. i think karen addressed the reasons why and i am with her. on valuation, there is no guidance, you can still back of the envelope and figure out this stock is trading about 14.5 or 15 times next year's numbers which is cheap compared to ups and the broader market >> and something that should help them was they were extending the seasonal surcharge. before it was just going to
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january 13th but now it's indefinite. there is no deadline it's just going to exist >> i echo these thoughts and have to underscore lack of guidance is not at all something to be fearful of they said we expect the second half to be very strong this is a company that is basically figured out how to be very profitable. b to b is coming back. international market was a big driver they have a services division starting to grow i am long the stock and i am not going anywhere >> this is both work from home and well as reopening, dan >> listen, these guys have nailed the trade but this stock topped out in january of 2018 at 275 and sold off to its lows in march
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since its new all-time high, it's up 220% you cannot tell me economic crises in a pandemic fixed all of the ills. the investors, all of 2018 and 2019, i know there were major competitive challenges, specifically amazon and that sort of thing, i know they fixed a lot of things and were in a perpetual challenges it is an interesting buy, but the stock down 3 or 4% after the run it made on good numbers makes sense. this stock needs to find a place to consolidate and they can find a place to reorient. >> the conference call gets under way at 5:30 eastern time jobless claims hitting their highest level since september. they are far above expectations.
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let's go to steve. earlier today you called this a claims calamity. isn't this something we should have expected given the rise in cases? >> not necessarily, melissa. it has not always been clear that the claims data has followed the coronavirus surge but indeed we can show it has. maybe you should have expected it, and maybe -- you know what is funny i am not sure i can talk to you guys anymore you are my favorite people, melissa, karen, dan, tim and guy, but we are talking different languages. i am telling you there are nearly 900,000 people filed for jobless claims in the last week. you guys buy stocks. 250,000 new cases average seven
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days from johns hopkins, you guys buy stocks. 20 million americans receiving some sort of unemployment claims and the outlook is terrible for the next several months. we are talking about a forecast that the numbers could go back to a million soon. several economists forecasting job losses for the month of december when the payroll number comes out. that's not for sure. none of that matters i don't tell you how to trade stocks i am just telling you where the economic data is going this month, next month and the next several months until we can turn this around. and how much of this happening now is undercutting what is happening. the longer people are jobless, the more businesses shut down, the less there is to recover you guys do your things. and my job is to tell you
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900,000 is a calamity. so go ahead and trade stocks >> whoa! >> i am going to let these guys in they are champing at the bit >> steve, we watch you all day long and you do a great job reporting on this. you don't watch our a block every night because there are two or three of us echoing your sentiment. >> i know, dan >> i just want to be clear on that >> i just want to air my frustration. i love you guys. you are the proxy for me right now. >> hey, steve, listen. i just want to be really clear there are other shows that do that not this show. we take this stuff seriously when we have economic data like this morning, it is not just buy stocks >> i think he is using us as a group, the trader mentality.
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steve, this is where we meet in the middle because we do as friends like to find common ground we are starting to see this deteriorating data beginning to show up in what companies are beginning to say starbucks saying in u.s. sales are softening. southwest, sales are softening as we go into the final stretch of the year, are we talking about an economy that will never see the depths we saw in the beginning of the pandemic because we have optimism out there, vaccines being injected into the arms of health care workers as we speak?
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or is it lasting damage? because this is the second downturn, not the first. >> i think there will be both, some lasting damage and scarring is the issue is the one that concerns me. part of this is frustration on my part. the economic data in the 17 years i have been doing this for cnbc, has been critical to the trade. i have never seen the market relegate the present data so quickly to the past as it does right now. it is interesting that now it shows what companies say, but it tells us a bit about the inequality in the economy. those being hurt most are not having a huge effect on existing corporate earnings or outlook for corporate earnings that's a big part on how stocks and wall street and main street look at this i just want to reiterate
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you are my favorites i come on with data and the stock market goes up i am not saying that's wrong >> we won't tell any other shows that we are the favorite and not them >> karen, do you want to get in? >> i do. steve, i hear what you are saying if you are unemployed, you don' care what the pe in the market is but in all of your time looking at data, have you ever been in a time where data from eight months ago and eight months from now will have moved as dramatically as now? i think that's highly unlikely >> that's a fair question, but we have changed the way we look at the economy during this crisis we are not going back. i didn't have a reported to on the high frequency data, but the j.p. morgan credit card data,
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it's down about 5% this holiday season compared to last year that's a piece of it we are able to gauge the economy well in realtime it's not great the idea -- i think the market was up during the great depression the idea you guys are trading on the future, i get that, but it doesn't change what is happening right now which is the real calamity right now for americans. >> steve, always a pleasure. >> of course i hope you have me back. >> i don't know if we are, general we, if we are trading on the future or know that liquidity will be there for an indefinite period of time. >> steve takes some of the most arcane material and makes it accessible to a broad population
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steve is brilliant let me say this as well because he alluded to it for more than 10% of the population, there is a depression going on. this is late 1920s, early 1930s stuff for a lot of people. they look at the stock market and are saying how is this possible given what we are going through. but the answer is the same conversation we had last night it's the fact that jerome powell says valuations don't matter in this type of 0 interest rate environment. >> coming up, a payment stock payday how you can cash in. tesla, another big day for the stock. we will have the dai wn etlshe "fast money" returns here.
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welcome back to "fast money. tesla shares up by 5%. rating upgraded from b to aa they said because of all of the reduction this debt. you thought they would do another one right after they said they would be put in the s&p 500. >> makes total sense 5 billion at one time for them was a ton of money still is, but good for them for doing it we are not sure how they will do it it's not one slug. clean up the balance sheet for good debt will get cheaper. right move >> and a positive outlook on this rating because they expect good performance from tesla in
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terms of cash flow guy adame, have things changed >> does this news change it? no i am sure they are lovely people at s&p global, but they are about nine months behind the curve on this one. that's true. but that's fine. in terms of levels, i have to emphasize, i don't get the story at all but i have gotten what is going on in the stock. presplit, ye lon musk said and now it has split it is a good point to take money off the table.
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>> to be fair to the folks at s&p global, so nine months ago their deabt may not be as it is now. >> it is difficult, but difficult to be long at this point i would imagine, tim o >> one thing i heard in this report i don't think this is an efficient company in terms of profitability. they are not that profitable but you can't argue with 500 billion of market cap. i am not
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this is 5g from america's most reliable network. welcome back dan is entering the fast lane with a fast pitch. he said this company is about to kick in overdrive. >> let's talk about an it caught my eyes because we have seen a massive shift about auto sales in the last year and the narrative has changed a lot. think back to a year ago when you had everybody and their mother telling you that owning a
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car was a bad economic and environmental decision it gets used 2% of the time. we have a pandemic and what happened we saw a massive shift towards used car ownership because we had issues with ride share and transportation that might have changed the narrative for good the other reason i want to look at auto nation is because of a company called carvana autonation is the largest new and used car dealer in the nation it is up 200% on the year. autonation has probably four times the sales, trades at a massive discount, has a $6 billion market cap take any metric valuation you want and it doesn't add up
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autonation has 40 or 50% of their sales online i think this stock gets re-rated in the new year. and lastly, look at the charts of this thing. they have held it is up about 200%, 36% on the year the all-time highs made just about a month or so again. i think it is setting up for a move higher. you see the chart. it is back near the 2015 high. i think it is setting up for a massive breakout in 2021 i like the secular shifts. the sentiment is still bad in autonation i like the valuation and technical setup. so auto nation in 2021 >> dan, huge fan of your work.
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i know brian kelly would say autonation was his barometer of how things were going. earnings growth is the only thing can i knock these guys and gals down. does that concern you? >> it doesn't. this year they had to shut down a lot of their stores. they are going to hit their peak earnings so the model will be changing. they will probably be able to go into other regions with this online model and the costs will go down with a lot of those. so to me it is probably set to reaccelerate as they make some of these shifts. >> no more questions time to vote are you buying dan's pitch on au auto nation? >> yes balls i like when dan is bullish. i like this one.
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i am bullish because dan is but i also like the story and i think valuation is cheap so i think they could get a rerating. >> karen drew a car, like a chevy or something >> and i am in the car with dan. >> i have a picture of dan driving in his car with no hands and i am a buyer just to be clear. i thought karen was going to say she gets bullish when dan gets bullish because it's so rare but he pointed out the secular trends and valuation trends, going to open 100 stores, have buyback ready to improve the eps. i like what is going on. >> guy >> can you imagine if dan and karen -- you would love to be a fly on that wall maybe we could get a go pro and
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don't get mad. but these days, i'm not getting out as much as i'd like to. that's why i take osteo bi-flex. it helps with occasional joint stiffness, while it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex. because i'm made to move. welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin currency soaring announcement to go public. check out papal and square both stocks have been on a tear. let's bring in dan he covers the payment stock. great to be with you >> pleasure being on the store
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>> please let us know how bitcoin is part of the business for papal and square a big percentage of the gains in the stock have been driven by this bitcoin rally >> we have done a lot of survey work we surveyed almost 400 users of papal. we found out that almost 20% of the users have started trading bitcoin. we think of bitcoin as not revenue itself, but as a vehicle to increase engagement on the app. so we think of it as engagement of output. people who have used bitcoin have recorded increasing engagement that means people will use more and more products and services it will make papal more the
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center of their financial life bitcoin is a way to boost engagement that's what came out of our survey >> dan, it's karen i think you know my sister from the show i feel like we are at the beginning, maybe a very frothy beginning, but how big could this be to papals and squares of the world? >> great question. i think in 2021 we will hit that inflection point where basically those apps are going to become the center of people's financial lives and the reason for that trigger is bitcoin that creates a massive flocking of people to those apps and then they do more and more things with those apps. i think this is a huge game changer for these apps we think they are all headed towards those 300 marks.
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i think this is just the beginning of this bitcoin trade. >> dan, it's tim without the bitcoin dynamic in making those platforms that which people kind of use and manage a lot of their financial dynamics, would square be a buy? i am not sure this is in your core coverage. i have owned the company a long time i don't own it now i am kicking myself, but the rest of this is hard for me to fathom >> i think square is a buy we don't know what it would be without bitcoin. they have been offering bitcoin for a long time. we have seen square do well even at times when bitcoin wasn't growing so there were times.
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we peaked in 2017 and there was a time when bitcoin wasn't doing well, but square was doing well and the cash app was getting about 2 million down loads a month. i think bitcoin is more of icing on top of the cake for square. the ability for square to become the cash app for ultimately the neo bank >> dan, great for your thoughts. dan nathan, can you give us a quick trade? >> it's a tough one. papal with a higher market cap than bank of america these guys do a couple of things they have apps which bank consortiums are also competing with if bitcoin is a game changer, i am not sure you buy them here.
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traditional banks have been unable to do these things. but there has to be immersion because i don't think these names can last >> we have a developing story. >> reuters is reporting that microsoft was breached in that same russian hack that took advantage of solar wind software and it is said that others were hacked this is reuters reporting. we are just finding out about it the fbi and other agencies have scheduled a classified briefing for members of congress tomorrow back to you. >> thank you eric, this is shocking news in that solar winds, the reason why it was so shocking in terms of that incident is that solar winds is used by 400 of the 500
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fortune 500 companies. guy, we have been trading the big hack for a long time there is news that the department of energy was breached, specifically where they keep the nuclear secrets. at what point does this wake up wall street? >> it should have been a wake-up call when we first started talking about this karen was concerned. rightly so market doesn't care. that goes back to the conversation we had earlier in the show with steve. first of all, if make soft sells off on the back of this, you buy it with every announcement is more and more reason to -- vindicate is probably the wrong word -- but to vindicate fire eye and saying everybody is in the same pool and i think you stay with that and i think fireeye is overdone. i think you boy this >> karen, what do you think
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about this being the black swan you thought it could be now that we see it growing in terms of the damage >> it's really concerning. the vix here, i would buy way out of the money protection because you get a giant bang for your buck, sadly, if something happens. and hopefully it is nothing and doesn't end up being a big deal and you haven't paid a big amount of money for protection, but i want that protection we have some new trades for the new year karen's new unwrapping and head over to twitter and vote on dan's buy. in town and which isupermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid you may be able to get more healthcare benefits through a
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dan, why don't you go first. >> mine is ab, amazon and alibaba. and ipoc i think there will be a lot of interesting companies. and disney and expedia these are second half trades as well so abide >> you didn't like -- >> mine is wtf i don't know any other way to think about this year. that's what i came up with the w is walmart, the evolution of walmart with walmart plus think about this, walmart trying
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to buy part of tiktok, that's insane, the evolution of walmart. the stock is not expensive and i think the customers they got during the pandemic will be pretty sticky customers. so for all of those reasons i like it. tjx is a reopened stock. they don't have much online business although their business did well because of the nesting that went on when the economy reopens, i think they will have so much inventory. i like them for the other side when we get there. and the last one is fedex. great numbers, but i guess it wasn't quite enough. i think it's overdone to the downside i want to listen to the call but i would be a buyer >> tim, would you rather dan's
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abide or karen's wtf >> karen gets demerits for not spelling a word. i like her style although this is a family show, i am going with wtf. i almost said it along i am long walmart and fedex. i think that's enough. these are two massive companies in part of the cyclicality for 2021 a rare after hours earning report from nike much more fast after this. the usual gifts are just not going to cut it.
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welcome back to "fast money. let's bring in mike. what is the options market >> we did see more than two times the average daily options today. the options market is implying a move of about $5.60 or so by the end of tom's raiding, about 4% of the stock price and $8 higher or lower by the end of next week it's an abbreviated trading
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session due to the holiday, about 5.4% or so that's less than the 5.6% the stock has typically moved over the last eight quarters. the most active options expiring were the 145 calls trading at about $1.12. then of course the next most active options were the 1:45 calls. but it appears that options trade remembers high >> guy, it has all of the ingredients. >> it does the other day we played our new game, wrap it or scrap it. genius job i wrapped that sucker. pete scrapped it that gives me pause because typically pete is spot on. i think it will go higher and
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time to find out if viewers are buying dan's fast pitch on autonation put your seat belt on. you are a winner more than 52% of the voters are buying autonation. let's go around the horn for final trade. >> fedex to me, despite a market trade down after the bell, i think they are having the time of their life with ground and b 2 b coming >> dan >> autonation. love having steve on the show. please come back and guy, happy birthday tomorrow
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you are the stranger to my abide. >> nice pitch. we haven't talked about this in a while. walmart, i think it's good >> guy >> geritol forreasons. >> mad money starts right now. my submission simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now hey, i'm cramer. i am just trying to make you some money my job is to educate you and teach you at home. the market started percolating again today. enough i'm done with it i'm done ne
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