♪ vaccinations leave the lab, how soon will you get the jab? so settle in, and be our guest with morgan, and ars, let's talk about your money, travel stocks and the dow. this christmas eve "squawk box" begins right now ♪ better not pout, i'll tell yo why, making a list, stroking it twice, going to find out whose naughty and nice ♪ right here on this cnbc on christmas eve, we'll call it christmas eve special right here on squawk. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with morgan brant. joe and becky are off. n morgan, i hope you bought your presents i'll admit it on the air because my wife is hopefully still

sleeping, i still have a little bit work to do i'm going to go out and go into some shops because i haven't gotten everything nailed down. you quent all went all online? most people did. >> i did a mix but i think the nice thing about getting up so early and starting your workday so early, you can still get around and have the rest of the day. so i still have some wrapping to do and i have a few more cookies i have to bake because i've discovered baking >> definitely baking some cookies and also some gifts to wrap meantime, let's show he y meantime, let's show he yw you . equity futures if we opened up right you now, things look like they would open up higher about 90 on the dow, s&p 500 looking like it would open about 11 points higher. and nasdaq looking to open about

21 points higher and we'll quickly show you treasury yields as well. right now you are looking at the ten year note this morning trading at 0.943 >> and as we take a look oversea, european stocks are rising on news that they are on the cusp of striking a post-brexit trade deal finally. you can see it is largely green. ftse 100 is the sole exception down about 0.2%. german dax is up more than 1%. talks between the uk prime minister and european commission president were said to have found consensus, although a briefing on fisheries has been delayed. holding up a potential deal announcement the agreement will then head to their perspective -- respective, excuse me, parliaments for a vote ahead of the december 31 deadline so we'll continue to monitor that situation throughout the morning. but that doesseem to be giving rise to markets not only overseas but also here in terms of the premarket trade we're see

p , despite all the craziness that i know we'll talk about. >> a lot of crazy to talk about this morning that is the up side. we'll show you a little bit of the down side right now because on the flip side of the universe or the globe right now, ali baba shares are under some pressure china's market regulator has opened an investigation into the company over monopolistic practices. saying that ali baba pressures merchants into exclusive receivity agreements so they can't sell goods on competing platforms. bank regulators also said that they would meet with ant financial. all of this just another blow to jack ma. we'll get a live report from beijing at 6:30. but you will remember that jack had made some public comments speaking out effectively against the chinese government of a little more than a month and a half ago right before the

government started to crack down on that ant financial ipo and now appearing to crack down on ali baba some of the made nonopolistic arguments mere mirror the conversation in the u.s. around big tech and the big investigation still ongoing, not a case yet, into amazon which is long considered sort of the -- or ali baba long considered the china version of amazon. i'm not sure that is the case. but nonetheless, you are starting to see a crackdown across the board and we've talked about this before i don't know what you think about this, in the united states one of the things that the big tech companies have long said is look, you have to actually not regulate us or at least don't crack down on us because if you crack down on us and try to break us up, we won't be able to compete with the big guys over there in china but now you are starting to see the chinese government go after it and it is this is not just true

of ali baba, but there are conversations around ten cent and so many others, how people start to think about antitrust >> yeah, that is an interesting point to bring up too because that has been sort of the u.s. versus china tech cold war scenario more broadly speaking, how that factored into things like national security and certainly the argument of some of the companies like facebook here in the u.s. i would say -- i mean, with ant financial, i think all of the financials that have come out ahead of the ipo was probably breath taking to some to see how much lending left heft it had. and also, we're obviously a democratic republic here and china has a very different situation. we have seen the chinese

government crack down on some of the billionaires and businesses and actually break apart some of the companies that they felt were getting too powerful. so definitely one to watch we'll have to see what happens on that front. and certainly tees us up for ongoing conversations about tech and antitrust around the globe really but we'll get an update now on the pandemic just over 1 million people in the u.s. have received their first doses of the coronavirus vaccine, that is behind the pace that the government had hoped with its goal of 20 million by the end of the year. about 10 million doses have been shipped across the nation so far. that is according to cdc data. we'll continue to watch though as we see both the pfizer vaccine and the moderna vaccine make their way into hospitals and care facilities around the country right now and see how quickly those numbers are ramp up >> and we have to hope that they do ramp up i've been hearing by the way that some companies are starting to talk about whether they can get access and maybe the distribution can go through businesses

there will obviously a back and forth if that is the case. but a lot more on that we have a huge lineup ahead. morgan and i are holding down the fort on this christmas eve this morning on squawk >> baby jesus take the wheel >> and by the way, we should just say to thank the producers this morning because i don't know if everybody saw that cold open, but it was awesome >> amazing >> hopefully we'll get an opportunity to play it again they put it together every year and it kills we should also put it on social media. it is fun. anyway, when we come back, a lot more president trump indicating that he might not sign the government spending and covid relief bill throwing a little bit of a wrench into all of it. and now he has vetoed the $740 billion defense spending bill. we'll take you live to washington to break it all down. as we head to a break, here is a look at the biggest s&p 500 winners and losers in a land not so far away,

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yesterday. and indicated that he might veto this $900 billion covid relief bill house speaker pelosi planning to convene congress this morning in a push for $2,000 stimulus payment to individuals and want to get straight over to eamon javers in washington with the latest on all of it. >> yeah, good morning. it is not a very merry christmas here in washington as president trump who arrived in mar-a-lago yesterday for his christmas vacation has now blown up two negotiations which officials in washington thought were all set and done now we're back to square one on both of those. politico's playbook calls it uncertainty and chaos here in washington, d.c. and i think that just about captures it. take a look at the letter that congressman mccarthy, republican leader in the house, sent to his caucus members this morning. he's saying that they will call the democrats' bluff this morning and the democrats are trying to call donald trump's bluff. he says republicans will offer

unanimous consent request to revisit the state and foreign operations title of the omnibus so we can fully address the concerns at hand what does that mean in plain english? president trump signaled that he might not sign the massive government spending and coronavirus relief package so he says that he wants $2,000 checks to individuals. only $600 checks are in that billing as of bill as of right now. and so nancy pelosi said i'll call your bluff, i'll offer unanimous consent request on christmas eve to increase those checks from $600 to $2,000 now, republicans have said that they oppose the thing that the president wants, so this will put republicans like mccarthy in an awkward position, they will have to oppose the larger checks that the president said he is blowing up this deal to protect. and in so doing, mccarthy saying that he will split the bill into two pieces and offer unanimous concept request to that. so it means we're really back to

the starting line on covid and government funding which sets up huge problems over the weekend with people losing unemployment, potential government shutdown, not clear where that will land at all at this point the other big deal now that has been blown up by the president is the big defense spending bill, a $740 billion defense bill the president vetoed it because he says he wants to change social media rules which people who negotiated the bill complain has nothing to do with the defense spending bill and doesn't belong in their bill at all. the president also says he wants to keep confederate names on the united states military bases the president says that that is an important value and so siding with, you know, i guess my owe confederates and others who say that those names should not be changed.owe confederates and others who say that those names should not be changed.we confederates and others who say that those names should not be changed. so the plan is the house to vote to overrides the veto. and on the 29th, they need two-thirds vote in both chamb

chambers likely that they can get that and street to ovvote to override so the president here might just be rolled on the defense bill. but on stimulus, covid, and government spending, it is not at all clear where this negotiation will land is it sort of a smoking crater where the deal once was and now we'll have to figure it out in the coming days >> and smoking kracrater is probably a pretty good metaphor. i'm curious, in terms of the covid relief portion of that bigger omnibus bill and then the government spending piece, is the plan to basically -- could they actually break those two apart and in the meantime does it mean we'll be facing another continuing resolution for that to be done >> yeah, they could break necessary two apart. and you could get a situation where they try to move separately but it is not clear that democrats and republicans agree on that strategy mccarthy seems to be suggesting that is the way to go here, break these into two things.

the president said he has problems with spending in the government spending bill of course a number of the things that the president said were things he had problems with were the things he himself and his administration proposed earlier in the year. so it is not clear what the president wants out of that spending bill. does he want to veto the whole package or will he simply back down that is another possibility. the president simply shrugs his shoulders and moves on he is on vacation down in mar-a-lago he doesn't have any public events on his schedule he has time to think about what he wants today but nobody in washington seems to have any idea what the president wants out 6 alof all . and we saw the pardon spree, the president pardoning a number of his close allies and friends who had gotten into legal jeopardy over the years that is adding sort of a layer of an moss it i and bitterness to this whole process because a lot of people republicans and democrats who are saying that that is just overt corruption are.of people republicans and

democrats who are saying that that is just overt corruption are. so more difficult to get to a deal at a time when it was already tough. >> and two other quick questions. if you were to get to a $2,000 payment, what is the total price tag for that >> you know, that is a good question i couldn't do that off the top of my head it is $2,000 times 100 million americans. so, you know, you are looking at a large bill there but not enormous by washington standards. this is a town where billions go under the crack in the couch so they can definitely afford it it is all deficit spending anyway >> but that would be on top of some of the other stimulus measures that are embedded in the $900 billion bill. and then the secondary question i had relates to the president's ability to veto -- or even just not deal with it because isn't there is a view that if he were to for example stay at mar-a-lago and not effectively

sign it from there, it would effectively be a veto? >> yeah, there is something called a pocket veto which is different. so the actual veto process, the president has too write a l wri and send it back for the senate or house and say why it was that he vetoed this bill. that is in the constitution. there is also a pocket veto which is when you are up against the end of a congress like we are right now inside this ten day window, the president can simply do nothing and then the bill is vetoed and that is impossible to override by congress so if he vetoes it, then it goes back to congress congress can give it a think and say we really like it anyway, we'll override your veto with a two-thirds margin vote if they have the vote, they can do it and the bill becomes law with a pocket veto, they can't do that. so there is some question now of what the president will do will he officially veto this thing. remember the video that he put out from the white house never actually said that he was going it veto it, he just called it a

disgra disgrace >> learn something every day a pocket veto. is that the idea that he keeps the bill in his pocket and just doesn't let it go? where does the name come from? >> yeah, i think that isetymolo. he just puts it in his pocket and lets it sit there and doesn't do anything. and that voids the idea that you might be able too have an override vote. and remember, when the congress ends, which is going to end at the beginning of january, this current congress, the slate is entirely wiped clean so all the legislation and everything that they are working on that didn't pass goes away. and when the new congress is sworn in in january, they can start from scratch and rebuild all those bills. so there is the possibility that you could see all of this renegotiated and have a president biden sign it in late january. but that doesn't did a whole the

lot of good for all those people on unemployment right now and the economic effects of what happens. >> okay. eamon javers, thank you for educating us this morning. merry christmas to you i imagine we'll be talking to you a lot more very soon meantime, let's get more on this in terms of this relief bill and whether it gets signed into law jim pet tuch jim, handicap this what do you think happens? >> the smoking crater. listen, i still think that there is a strong case that whatever the timing, at the end of the day, what we hear about really i think is the president signing that $900 billion bill wall street wants it the economy needs it and don't forget, those republicans in georgia, they want this too. they are already running on it

and that may be actually sort of the key political impact here. the result of all this chaos is if republicans lose those senate races, we're looking at a very different legislative calendar going forward in 2021 thisin a n administration >> you effectively pit trump against a mccar are anaccarthy s who have historically tried to back the president is this the moment where this comes undone to some degree? >> but listen, the president is forcing them to make a choice. is this the best time for him to be doing this in maybe he should have spent the last month focusing on these issues but republicans really do not want to go for this $2,000, so they will have to make a choice there. they want to just -- now he will force an override.

and then we still have to do the 900 build. billion. so he is forcing them to make a lot of difficult decisions the president is already talking about running against john thune. and so you still have the two live senate races which are plea karius republicans have a slight edge, but we'll see if they still have the slight edge if the result is a months along government shutdown, no checks, maybe the market tanking not the environment that the republicans want to run on in georgia this are really key races. >> and of course your heart breaks for the folks that are hoping for and depending on that money just as we come into this christmas holiday. yesterday they estimated $390 billion in additional money would have to go to this bill to bump those checks to $2,000 a person so i'm wondering if we were say to get to a point, whether this congress or the next congress, to a point where we get to

$2,000 a person, where that will come from. is it a situation where potentially some republicans could get on board if you start making cuts to the actual fiscal 2021 spending bill >> well, that issue of how you pay for it is also sort of going to be the issue when joe biden comes up with an infrastructure plan because there will certainly be republicans who won't say hey, we can deficit finance the whole thing. they will have to come up with places to pay for that so you want to pay for the $2,000, the infrastructure, we're running out of significant pay-for especially if you don't want to touch entitlements so i don't think that that $2,000 -- that is not happening. no one wants to spend that money in advance i don't think that it will happen today or in 2021. >> and are you surprised that wall street is not having a more

negative reaction to what has happened here? >> i think ultimately they don't believe that this $900 billion bill is going to get sunk. they have all been counting on this as part of their bullish 2021 forecasts people like mark zandi are saying no bill would get a recession. so if they thought that it wouldn't happen, i think that you would get a severe selloff which would force the bill which i think is the reason why we will get a bill i think if wall street thinks that they will screw this up, i think that you will get a huge market selloff and focus the attention of congress on making it happen. so wall street doesn't believe it and i think there is good reason for them not to believe it >> jim, we have to leave the conversation there though it is a longer debate and we'll see whether it comes to a resolution today or not if it doesn't, i'm sure we'll continue it with you

thanks so much please merry christmas >> merry christmas and coming up, we'll take you live to beijing will china regulators are launched an anti trust probe into ali baba. oh, i will rescue you

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eunice yoon in beijing >> and today the company's top market regulator said that it is opening an investigation into alibaba for alleged made november police tick behavior, what is known especially here as a common practice as pick one of two.behavior, what is known especially here as a common practice as pick one of two. and separately, ant group was called in for a discussion, summoned to talk about fair competition and consumer protection so all of these moves come at a time when jack ma only a couple months ago had made a fiery speech where he was highly critical of the regulators and also at a time when beijing and in particular the xi jinping administration is looking to exert more control over private industry, ostensibly to weed out some systemic risk so there has been a lot of talk

now today broke what the potential impact could be on chinese tech most people here are saying that they expect the enforcement to come into play, that lot of the larger chinese tech companies will face several potential penalties, such as -- everything from slap on the wrist fines to demands for restrunkcturing of their business model and a nightmare scenario is a possibility an end to the v.i.e. structure which lallows foreign investors to buy into some of the chinese tech firms so a lot of discussion and concern. but one saving grace discussed is that these chinese tech companies at the end of the day are important to beijing because beijing wants to have national champions. and we saw that reflected in the state press when the official peoples daily very soon after

this announcement came out had written up how though they are in favor of the investigation, the pump of the investigationpu to have better development of the online economy as opposed to anything else. >> and they may want national champions, but they don't want the champion himself, ie jack ma, to be too powerful this says to me everything about his deteriorating relationship with the homeland. >> yeah. and that has been discussed now for several months people have said that jack ma has just gotten too big for his britches one person i talked to today said does he think that he is more powerful than xi jinping because that is what it looked like and so because of that, this is really seen by many in the tech community as a personal problem between jack ma and the xi

jinping administration, that jack ma has crossed too many lines and that especially in october when he was so critical of the regulators for being too slow on fintech, when he himself was about to ipo his financial arm, ant, it was just seen as too much and after that speech, people were talking about how -- he ist perhaps he krooscrossed a line and now president xi says that he expects the anti-monopoly efforts will be a priority in 2021 so a lot of people think that this is something that will steam roll ahead >> and i don't know if you heard the conversation we were having earlier about here in america oftentimes especially around facebook and others who said look, we need to stay --

regulators, stay away from us because we have to compete with the big chinese companies. is the reverse conversation happening in china, is anybody saying look, we can't start to try to break up our chinese companies because we have to compete with the guys in the u.s. >> that conversation is not being had. actually i spoke to one chinese tech company who said the difference in china versus the u.s., because i brought up the same discussion, said that here if you want to look at it positive positively, if china says it wants to do something, it will just codo something so the conversation here though is more that, you know -- it is administer about how u.s. companies might complain that congress, you know, that their efforts will make it more vulnerable to chinese tech companies. about you now maybe t but now the expectation here, that tech companies could become more compliance and may not be

as much of a threat to u.s. tech firms. >> interesting eunice, thank you and merry christmas. >> merry christmas to you too. and talking about christmas, i'll send to morgan who has the christmas story of the morning >> i'm so excited for this the holidays are different this year, but some traditions did live on including tracking santa's christmas eve journey. his trip started just a short time ago and our next guest is following his every move four star u.s. air force general glenn van herk, commander of norad. and this year marks the 65th year of tracking santa's flight on christmas eve general, thank you for joining us >> thanks for having me, morgan be >> so let's talk about this santa tracking it looks like you are using radar, satellites, even jet fighters to track this move around the globe talk to us about it.

>> that's correct. it all starts off with the north warning system which is a series of radars that runs across canada and alaska that picks him up first we picked him up a little over a half hour ago taking off out of the north pole and moving to the west satellites then begin tracking the infrared six of rudoldolpru nose we'll track him with f-15s and f-16 ths s in the u.s >> and how does it speak to the military capabilities especially as we see the modernization efforts under way and next generation technologies being developed and contracts being awarded? >> well, that is a great question thank you. we utilize the systems that we use 24/7, 365 to track santa claus. and our mission is very clear, we defend authority america with a bi-national relationship with the canadians.

and it is from sensors to satellites and our airplanes and it stretches around the globe in partnerships with our other combatant commands and canadians. >> and i want to shift gears a little bit here. the politics of it aside, especially since i know having had so many conversations with folks in the defense department that it is a department that prefers to be apolitical but just the fact that we have seen the national defense authorization act vetoed by the president this week throws into question what will happen when it goes back to congress next week we've seen a defense spending bill passed condition stick could y consecutively for 59 straight years. not always on timie. what does that delay mean for this process of keeping the military up to snuff if you will and making sure our service men and women are in the best position possible? >> well, politics of that decision i won't weigh in on what i'll tell you, it won't

delay norad's track of santa one bit. everybody can go to nor santa today the organize to track santa claus. i'm confident that we'll ten our mission 24/7 to defend north america. >> all right thank you for joining us and merry christmas. >> thank you. and coming up, travel stocks have been among the hardest hit this year. but did they belong in your portfolio in a post-vaccine world? and as we head to break, take a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers ♪ competition beat us, again. how? they have a better finance system than we do. i feel like they might have a better finance system than we do. workday. how do they make better decisions faster?

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welcome back to this special edition of "squawk box." a look at equity futures, it looks likes market would open up higher, dow about 75, nasdaq up about 25, and the s&p 500 looking to open about 9 points

higher and by some measures today is the official day that santa rallies begin, but will we get that rally joining us now is portfolio manager at doug c. lane and also peter bookfelder joining us. guys, good to see you. you try to manage a portfolio through all this, where we find ourselves now with stimulus machine what are yoare your tho what happens >> portfolio has to be pretty balanced there is a lot of uncertainty and consensus is that everythin is good. but we have for watch for pitfalls there is too much built in that the vaccines will all work and the handoff will be well done. so our view is stay within your allocation markets have not given us enough

to pull back yet and i think rates are moving up close to 1%. so the idea is that the stock market looks like everything will be great. i think that it will be great the next three to five years, but i think that we're being too fast too quick here. >> this is about balancing short term pain versus long term gain. you have the stimulus mess in d.c., vie writes carou virus ca however you have the vaccine, you have the look ahead to the other side which the market is trying to look ahead to and that is a balancing act >> absolutely. and you really hit it spot on about how the market is viewing it on a day to day basis but it is that other side that seems to be the main focus and i'm optimistic that the economy will come back pretty sharply this summer and into the fall particularly leisure and

hospitality secretary tr p hospitality sector the issue is how does inflation respond to the rebound in the economy, what did longer term interest rates do. i'm in the inflation camp. i think it surprises to the up side and that is what i think the stock market has to deal with. i think predicting the economy and earnings in 2021 will be a lot easier than figuring out where the stock market goes. >> so you have mentioned rates going up and maybe some inflation. that has the possibility of upsetting the growth trade, does it not if you get rates -- let's say rates start to go above 1% you have concerns about inflation. don't you have the possibility of what has been a great trade for invest tors being upset in rates rise >> you do.

and that is what investors have to look at consensus is that the growth stocks will go to the moon and you have to look at two things, one is what is the discount rate and nobody paid attention for that for about 18 months because if the ten year goes higher, you will have to discount your cash flows and the second one is that capital goes where there is opportunity. and capital will grow if rates go up to areas that will do well such as financials, industrials, energy, and then infrastructure. and i think that that is what will happen. the other part of it is that if rates do go up and spreads widen, people will take money out of the market, it is a rebalancing issue and they will go into bonds as well. so i think that is where it happens. and you could see the indexes go nowhere. they could actually be flat. but within that, and you saw that in november when financials rallied 17% versus 10 on the s&p, so those are the things that you have to watch for and along the way, you get these pullbacks because people will be rebalancing and taking money out

of companies that are trading at 25 times sales and 50 times, you know, air. so i think that you really have for watch that as an investor and balance the portfolio with the travel leisure, with the cyclicals, and then have tech but growth at a reasonable price. >> not easy to figure it out gentlemen, you did a good job though we'll talk to you both soon. when we come back, the nba had to postpone a game on day two of the new season after a superstar was fined for partying we'll bring you the details about th a sma me.atndo nyor hey, dad!

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rockets and thunder last night the rockets did not have the eight players required by the league to play a game. three rockets players tested positive or in-kconclusive test four more were quarantined and james harden was unavailable after he violated health and safety protocols video appeared to show harden at a party monday without a mask. the nba fined him $50,000 for attending a, quote, private indoor party still ahead, bitcoin is up over 100% in the past three months but the debate rages on between skeptics and the champions wil be with us on the other side with that debate i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros.

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welcome back to "squawk box," officials are urging against traveling for the holidays millions of americans are expected to stay home. some are still venturing out, and others are making travel plans well into the new year seema mody joins us with travel industry trends. >> about 34 million fewer americans are expected to travel over the christmas and new year's holiday than last year. that's a nearly 30% drop for those who are taking a vacation, where are they going most popular destinations for christmas, denver, dallas, austin, nashville, as more travelers shy away from big cities like new york you're seeing demand grow for some international destinations and warm climates, according to kayak, san juan, the most searched caribbean destination, cancun, the top spot in mexico and hotels have taken notice marriott says 88% of hotels are fully open in the caribbean. it's interesting because expedia's 2021 report show the caribbean and mexico are among the top searched destinations in

2021 they are seeing travel searches increase on vaccine headlines. as to who will travel first, millennials and gen z, 1.5time more likely to travel. >> i don't think that surprises me but interesting to hear that. seema mody, thank you, and merry christmas. the airline sector has been hit hard, sliding again on the highly contagious strain of covid-19 joining us is to talk about the outlook is helene. good to see you this morning. >> thanks for having me. the it's almost doubled off the march lows, remains more than 30% below the january peak here, though, what is your outlook on the airlines as we head into 2021 given the fact that we do have vaccines rolling out, albeit, still pretty modestly at this point

>> we think it's going to be a very tough first quarter we still think it will take three years for demand to rebound to prepandemic levels. >> why three years that's a long time. >> there are a couple of things to consider. one, there are a lot of people who don't have money to travel two, there are still a lot of people who are fearful of traveling and three, the airlines are going to be smaller over the next couple of years as they try to get back to cash flow break even. we think that in order for them to get there, they need to be business or they need to be down 50% versus 2019 levels versus where we are now, which is down, you know, 60, 70%. we think that there will be something like 12 to 15 million people traveling over this h holiday season by air. then the first quarter, january is generally a tough month

remember, not a lot of business traffic. business traffic is still down 85%. international is down about 90, 95%. we think actually leisure, domestic leisure is probably pretty close to where it was a year ago, and as seema just pointed out, i think there will be a lot of people who will think about traveling during the vacations, march, april vacations, even though we're expecting a tough first quarter and then this summer, we're expecting a jailbreak, and we think a lot of people will travel then. >> what does that mean in terms of passenger airlines that you cover. are there names you will buy here at these levels or are you steering clear and cautious right now? >> no, i think we have some ratings on a few of our stocks we're kind of market weighted. we don't have a lot of buys. southwest is our best idea for 2021 they have a fortress balance sheet. domestic is going to recover faster than international as we have discussed they've got a pretty good management team. they're not going to have to

furlough people. they will keep payroll support, should help them through the first quarter, and they're expanding, actually, at a period of time when other airlines are shrinking. we're enthusiastic about southwest. >> and just finally, given the fact that it is christmas eve, and we have been covering what's going on on the logistics fronts as well, whether it's package deliveries as we finish up this holiday season and go into a new year. >> it was pretty crazy, wasn't it we had six years of growth in one year basically, and we think that most packages will get there. we don't think every package is getting there tonight but we think most will and then going into 2021, we think that the growth rate will slow just because, as you pointed out,

vaccine, people will start to think about getting out. we think the buy at home may slow a little bit. but we still think that people like ordering online so we expect fedex and ups to continue to do well into 2021. >> helane becker, thank you for joining us today >> you too, bye. white house chief of staff bill daley is with us. he'll make sense of the wild ride in the last 24 hours in the washington. the leaders of the problem solvers caucus will predict what's going to happen with the stimulus and defense bills in congress, futures right now pointing to a higher open. stay with us on the 5g america's been waiting for. this new iphone plus verizon 5g is incredible. switch and get iphone 12 on us. unlimited plans start at just $35. this is 5g from america's most reliable network.

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that so very much. good morning to everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc on this christmas eve. we're going to call it a christmas eve special because that's what it is, and it is special. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with morgan brennan, scott wapner is in today as well joe and becky are off. we've got a lot going on on this christmas eve morning. let's show u.s. equity futures at this hour looks like the market is going to open up got some green and red, but nicer green on the screen to match the holiday. dow up about 76 points, if we opened up now. nasdaq looking to open up about 21 points higher and the s&p 500

looking to open up about 9 points higher. scott. >> andrew, making headlines this morning, it's not a done deal yet, but a brexit agreement is said to be close and that it could be announced within hours. british prime minister boris johnson has been in close contact with european commission officials to finalize those details. a last minute hitch over fishing rights is said to be all that's left to hammer out alibaba shares under pressure. commerce announcing a probe into ecommerce. trading platform robin hood has been hit with a class action lawsuit. the suit charges robinhood with failing to inform clients that it sells their stock orders to outside trading firms. robin rob robinhood is commission free but the suit says costs are being passed on to consumers at execution trade at less than

optimal prices morgan. investors continue to follow developments on the stimulus bill in washington, the looming risk, a shut down and the lapse in aid eamon javers joins us with the latest >> it's a very grumpy christmas in washington, d.c. after president trump left town yesterday. he headed down to mar-a-lago for his christmas vacation leaving behind him a series of approximate. the president vetoed the defense authorization bill, and then he said he might veto the overall covid and government spending deal the president calling that a disgrace it's $2.3 trillion overall in spending that's because they merged together the annual government spending that they need to pass before the end of the year, along with that covid relief funding. that's about $900 billion. the president said, though, in a video that it's not good enough in terms of covid relief $600 checks are not big enough he wants $2,000 per person checks ultimately to be passed by congress.

that blows up the deal that congress had agreed to so now we're going to see sort of a show down and then a break down today on the house floor the show down is going to be because nancy pelosi, the speaker of the house who wanted larger checks all along and didn't get them in the negotiation, is going to call the president's bluff today. she's going to say, fine, she won $2,000 checks we're going to put a unanimous consent decree on the floor to see if we're going to get that with all the republicans supporting it. the republicans are going to be in the position of shooting down a proposal that the president says he wants kevin mccarthy, the republican leader in the house saying he's going to offer his own unanimous consent offering he's going to ask to separate those two massive bills. mccarthy writing in a letters, house democrats have conveniently ignored the concerns expressed by the president and shared by the constituents that we ought to re-examine how tax dollars are spent overseas while so many neighbors at home are struggling

to make ends meet. mccarthy coming out against the bill that he wrote in part and negotiated at the negotiating table and supported early in the week now he's saying we need to split these two bills up that's not going to go anywhere either you're going to see the show down and the break down is the break down of this overall consensus deal in washington not clear at all, andrew, where they're going to go from here. it's a very very messy situation in washington on christmas eve, with all of that unemployment looming, those unemployment benefits that could be cancelled as early as this weekend we have a looming government shut down now, and no question about where they're going to go on the defense bill. that the house and senate say they are going to override the president's veto that could happen as soon as next week. a lot of moving parts in d.c., andrew >> eamon javers, merry christmas to you, and we hope a merry christmas to everybody we'll see what happens to this bill a bit later today

for more on the kfconversation the relief deal, i want to bring in bill daley, white house chief of staff for president obama, great to see you, bill add some perspective here. i mean, a, do you think that this is -- do you think there's going to be -- do you think something $2,000 a head is going to get passed here >> i think it's really the president trying to get some leverage with mitch mcconnell and the senate republicans who very aggressively the other day stated that there will be no action in the senate regarding the election and so i think the president is searching for finding some leverage against mcconnell and thune and the republicans in the senate who pretty well shot down any attempt to address in early january the election results but it does turn as eamon said, turns people's heads when you had a president stay out of the negotiations you have a defense authorization

bill being vetoed that i don't think has ever been done that will be, i assume, easily overrode by the senate and the house, but this package that's so necessary and was negotiated oe over months and months to throw the grenade in the middle of it at the very end is really rather pathetic, but i think it's all about trying to get leverage with the theory that he can revisit and have the congress revisit the election in early january. politically, i can't figure it out, he has two republican senators who voted for both of these packages and are now campaigning two weeks away from the election, so it doesn't make a lot of sense other than trying to get leverage on something else >> but, bill, i appreciate the -- i don't want to call it conspiracy theory, maybe that's what it is but i don't understand the rational of how you would gain leverage, therefore in january, especially if you don't pass this now, the second piece of it

that i also don't understand, and eamon alluded to this in the 6:00 hour, there was a series of pardons that took place in the last 24 hours, which seems to have upset not just democrats but a number of prominent republicans. >> and i think there will be plenty more pardons that will upset a lot of people. that's one area that they have no power to do anything about. what i'm talking about is i think the president, one of the things may be, that he is trying to get leverage, and will try to get understanding with the senate leadership that they will at least consider his theory around trying to affect the election do i think it works? i think it's a long shot but there's no other logic to this he did not engage at all in the negotiations his team led my secretary mnuchin negotiated it. his senators, the republicans who support him and house members, voted for it, mostly. and the two senate republicans

that are up for election in ten days or two weeks, they voted for it now to throw it up for grabs, there has to, in my opinion and i'm not a conspiratorialist, there has to be a theory in, other than he woke up and didn't like it. >> bill, it's scott, good to see you this morning i'm wondering, how much responsibility does speaker pelosi bear in all of this she could have done a deal months and months and months ago, but did not should she be held accountable for that >> the deal that she wanted obviously months and months ago was much much larger and mitch mcconnell and the senate republicans, and i think mcconnell was pretty clear, he didn't have the votes to do a big deal i think the democrats wanted somewhere around $3 trillion there was no way that was going to happen, as it inched down to a smaller amount, the votes in the house that pleasant has,

obviously there was rumblings, and democrats love the idea of $2,000, and they were there a long time ago. they all have some guilt, or they all own this in some way or another, i think to say she should have done a deal months ago, there was no one to do a deal with in the senate up until last week, and that was pretty obvious that mcconnell didn't have the vote, that he wasn't going to do it. >> she could have done a smaller deal, though, right, months ago. you end up doing 900 billion now, she could have maybe gotten something closer to that months ago, at least even maybe a piecemeal deal now we have held out for so long and find ourselves in a situation where people who need the money aren't getting the money and now may have to wait even longer because of the president blowing the whole thing up >> again, they all own this. democrats, republicans, this chaos that'sing going on. this process that has been totally circumvented we have a possible government shut down.

you have military people not getting their paychecks if this defense bill isn't overridden. every member of congress and everyone in the executive branch who has been involved in this has some ownership of this terrible situation we're in in the middle of a pandemic if the eu and britain can come to a deal on brexit, you mean to tell me that we can't get a deal done in the united states congress to bring relief in the middle of an economic crisis and a pandemic it's just, it's disgusting. >> yeah, i mean, i guess it just caps off what has already been a crazy and tumultuous year. you just mentioned it, but the ndaa, the defense spending bill that was vetoed and goes in front of congress next week. i realize it was originally passed with veto overriding majorities in both houses but it's not necessarily that clear that that is what's going to happen when it goes back to congress next week where would we find ourselves if the defense bill is not

instated, where would we find ourselves in terms of that because that's $740 billion that has big ripple effects. >> i think members of congress will be hard pressed to vote against the bill that pays our military people around the world in spite of the president's objections that something regarding tech companies, liability issue wasn't put in. again, you have the two members of the senate from georgia who are running voted for that and now they're going to be asked the question, are you going to override the president's veto here. are you going to support him what are you going to do so i don't think there's a chance that that bill goes down and the president's veto is not overridden because if it is, then i think the american people are just going to be outraged over the thought that our military people around the world are not being paid whether they can try to kick the can again, start a new congress.

you have to start a whole new process after january 3rd, and a new president coming in in 2 1/2 weeks after that, it's just, it's hard to fathom that the elected members of congress would do that to the military people >> hey, bill, back to the stimulus bill for a moment what do you make of what some people are calling pork that has been inserted into that bill, including things like not just forgiving the ppp program but making it tax deductible, which, by the way, seems crazy to me. >> we all know the sausage making process is not pretty but the results and the -- you can take apart any piece of legislation, but it was a consensus. it was a compromise. you had to give certain things to certain people. other members of congress didn't like it. a lot of democrats didn't like

$600 they wanted more they didn't get it, but they got other things there are pieces of legislation that are questionable, but the question is, passing it, does it help people in a broad sense who may have disagreements, like the three martini launch, or the ppp deductibility, but you can't make perfect the enemy of the good when you make legislation, and the president stayed out of the sausage making, now jumps in at the very end to try to say, oh, but here's pieces of this i want to take out that i don't like or want things put in that's not how it works. at least that's not how it should work. >> bill, we got to leave the conversation there we wish you a merry christmas, hope to see you in person in 2021 >> for sure. >> and hopefully there will be a bill sooner than later, pork or no pork. >> thank you >> thank you appreciate it. we have a lot more coming up on the other side of the break

as covid-19 vaccines roll out across the country companies are dealing with big questions about the new year, including should employees be required to get the vaccine. we're going to talk about all of that and more with the ceo of marshal mcclen nan, next in a land not so far away,

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are looking ahead to what might come next year, and with the covid pandemic still out of control, there are many challenges ahead among the questions ceos will need to answer, should employees be required to take the vaccine before returning to work according to a recent poll by the yale chief executive leadership institute, 150 ceos of america's largest company, 71% said they believe the vaccine should be required at work joining us to discuss this and so much more is dan glazer, the ceo of marsh & mclennan, 76,000 employees globally, and clients in 130 countries dan, good morning to you appreciate seeing you. merry christmas. >> good morning. merry christmas. >> let's talk about 2021 because there's going to be some huge challenges and big questions, thorny questions that companies are going to be confronted with as we try to get employees back to work, and let's start with the one that i just mentioned at the top, which is how companies should engage and perhaps maybe

even require employees to take this vaccine what are you advising companies? >> sure, and we're hearing this a lot. first, we need vaccines to be abundant, and widely available, and that's still a ways off, particularly when you think on a global basis generally any mandate should be actually government action as opposed to individual companies. if we leave it up to companies, there will be tremendous variability and that defeats the whole purpose of wide, wide vaccinations now, don't get me wrong, ceos want their employees to be vaccinated, but i think that mandates are going to be very rare you know, we all want to return to a more normal way of life i certainly do i know you do, and vaccines are really required for that i mean, i know herd immunity, people hear herd immunity and it

sounds awful, but it's really required there's three ways to get to herd immunity, natural immunity, you know, the terrible case counts of infection, which is the hard way, and vaccinations, and so that combination is what's needed to get to like a 40 to 70% immunity threshold in order to beat this pandemic, and so vaccines are an absolute requirement. so we are advising companies to strongly encourage their employees to get vaccinated. i have eminded people a couple of times about john mccain if you recall after 9/11 he wrote a book "why courage matters" and in it he recognized, he acknowledged the uncertainty and the fear that existed, and then he said, now get on the damn elevator, fly on the damn plane

>> but, dan, doesn't -- >> go ahead. >> dan, doesn't that reflect courage matters, leadership matters, and to the extent that there's a conversation about whether it's voluntary or not, and look, there's no decision that has to be made by most major companies probably for the next two to three months, given, as you said, that the vaccine will not be at scale but two to three months out from now, there are going to be hard decisions that companies are going to have to make, and while, yes, you would want this all to be voluntary, and maybe we can get there because there's such a demand for this, if there isn't, don't you think when you consider business today and all of the efforts around being socially responsible, isn't this the ultimate version of social responsibility to effectively mandate these things if, in fact, we get to a point where not enough americans are getting vaccinated >> you know, companies and modern leadership just generally

don't tell people what to do we educate, we cajole, we support, but i just don't see that -- >> dan, i apologize for interrupting but there are businesses today that do not allow employees to come to work without being tested do you believe that's some kind of invasion of the rights of these employees and what right does an employee have to come to work and effectively potentially give covid to another employee because they don't want to get vaccinated, under what scenario does the liability protection, which doesn't exist, allow for that >> yeah, i don't actually think that this is a liability driven issue. of course it's one of the concerns that people have, but you've even heard hospital systems and transportation

companies really struggling with the notion of mandating vaccinations so there's nothing that you would like to see more or i would like to see more than wide scale vaccination because frankly, that's the only way we get back to a more normal pace of life. i'm just telling you the reality that i do not believe from the companies we're talking to that there's an appetite for mandates for vaccinations >> yeah, i mean, it's certainly a big conversation and a big topic of debate, dan i think it also sort of thrusts a spotlight on another topic that has really been, i guess, swirling this year, and that is insurance coverage, where pandemics are concerned, for companies, as we've learned, especially for a lot of small businesses out there this year, that their business insurance did not actually cover this situation, covid-19 and the business interruption that's come from it and everything

else, how do you think that is now going to change from an insurance standpoint, and is it something that private industry can actually offer products towards or is the risk too high, and this is going to have to be the government stepping in >> yeah, i think the latter on that there are certain risks that are just too large for any industry with a finite amount of capital to support, and global terrorism is an example, and that's why we had trea, which has been a remarkable success pandemics are similar. you know, pandemics are global the amounts of losses in the trillions, and so it's just not something an industry can do now, the industry working with government might be able to take some element of risk, and certainly can provide administration and some element of risk management to support a public/private partnership but it's not something that the industry will be able to cover

on its own balance sheet because the risk is far greater than that >> hey, dan, as you look out to 2021, and you try to think about the time line, and i know there's the insurance part of the business and there's this advisory element especially around risk, when you think about the risk for 2021, right now i think the expectation or conventional wisdom is that the world's going to look a lot better, at least in the united states, hopefully by summer. i don't know if you think that's too optimistic, too pessimistic, and what do you think the risks are between now and then that doesn't make that true >> yeah, so there's a few things one, i would say our position, we created one of our businesses, oliver wineman created a disease progression model called the pandemic

navigator, very forward looking, used by many governments and many companies, and basically it's pegging out at about june we're getting there in a hard way. they were originally saying about this time next year where we would return to normal in places like the united states. they moved that forward to june and it's largely because of the case counts being so devastating. 200,000 or something new cases in the united states per day you know, covid is burning through the population, and so it's a terrible outcome. also, you know, we have multiple vaccines, at least two, and where the efficacy is higher than original assumed. and so, you know, there is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is a dark tunnel to walk through before we get there. so we have been advising c suites to think of 2021 as a transition year where the first half of the year is likely to be dominated by covid and pretty

rough. but that overall 2021 will be better a pandemic is more akin to a natural catastrophe like a major hurricane or earthquake than a global recession or a depression even because there's nothing structural you know, and so the bounce back should be better the gdp should be stronger unemployment will be reduced there will be stimulus in the eu and u.k. and the u.s. and many other places there's better covid outcomes, and people are ready i mean, you know just by talking to people in your life, you know, everyone's ready to get this behind us, and so, you know, maybe we'll have a little bit of a roaring 20s afterwards where there's a lot of buoyancy to the economy >> all right dan, we appreciate you joining us this morning. we wish you a very very merry christmas. we hope that you're right about 2021, and boy would i love to see the roaring 20s without, of

course, the bubble popping at the end. look forward to seeing you soon, and hopefully in person. you bet. >> merry christmas, andrew thank you. all right, guys, thank you so much. coming up, alibaba shares are dropping today on news china launching an antitrust probe into the tech giant. we have a live report from beijing straight ahead time now for today's aflac trivia question, dave thomas founded wendy's in what year the answer when cnbc "ua x"onnuessqwk who can break this down for me? coach saban... i crutched out to the mailbox and there it was - a medical bill for twelve-hundred dollars. i had no idea i'd have to pay that. that's right. it's hard to know exactly what your health insurance is going to cover, so you gotta protect your blind side. aflac! aflac pays you money directly to help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. really? aflac. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at aflac.com.

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. dave thomas founded wendy's in what year? the answer, 1969 the company was founded in columbus, ohio still to come on "squawk box," a live report from beijing as jack ma finds himself in the middle of invest investigations by the chinese government. rapper and music mogul bought title for 56 million in 2015 it has struggled compared to competitors like spotify,

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our top corporate story this morning, china opening an antitrust investigation into alibaba. eunice june joining us from beijing with the details. >> the company is a top market regulator, investigating alibaba's alleged monopolistic behavior, including a practice that's known as pick one of two, which is essentially forcing merchants on the sites to only work with alibaba, as opposed to any of its competitors separately, aunt group which is jack ma's group, has been summoned for a conversation with regulators about fair competition and consumer protection so all of this comes after jack ma made a fiery speech back in october where he was highly critical of the regulators, and the way that they regulate f fintac, it also comes after

president xi jinping is making it quite clear he wants to reign in private industry ostensibly to mitigate risk a lot of investors are talking about it here, as well as people in the chinese tech community. they're split as to exactly what the impact is going to be and how big it will be there are folks who think this is going to be a slap on the wrist, fines, warnings, perhaps tweaks to business models or it could potentially mean the end in an extreme scenario to the vie structure, which is kind of a gray area structure that allows foreign investors to buy into these chinese tech firms. there is one counter argument, though, scott, as to how far beijing would go, and that is that china has also made clear that a priority here is to groom national champions a cynic, though, would say that maybe the national champion cannot be one that's private, and has to be either state owned or compliant, at least, to

beijing. >> maybe with a person at the top who isn't so loud and critical either. we'll see, eunice, thank you so much that's eunice yoon joining us in beijing. andrew. coming up after the break, want to spark a debate at the holiday table, well, you know the topic, just bring up bitcoin, and we will bring you that heated conversation ahead of the conversation of your own this morning kevin o'leary is going to join us along with anthony popliano, bitcoin this morning, take a look at the price tag, 23$23,00, a lot of folk out there are saying did i miss it we'll have that discussion here on "squawk box."

the treasury department proposing new regulations surrounding cryptocurrency last week, but with bitcoin sitting well over 20,000, could it still be a big play for your portfolio. joining us now is anthony pompliano, the founder and partner at morgan creek digital assets, and kevin o'leary, the chairman at o shares etf, shark tank cohost and a cnbc contributor. nice to see you both

kevin, it sounds to me like you have come around on bitcoin from not a real currency to actually buying some and maybe buying more >> let me be clear, scott, i have been a cryptonian for years. at the time, all you could get was a life coin, stella, and i bought this at the last craze. i put $100 to work here. this morning, it's worth 52.77 because not all cryptocurrencys are the same clearly, so bitcoin is it the only one that works, maybe, my point is about this. i'm involved in this because it's fun but this is not an institutional product, and you know, i own bitcoin, so i ride with them on the weekends but you can't put this into a fiduciary product. this whole market, even if bitcoin were to go up another 2,000% is completely irrelevant

to the institutional clinent. you yourself interviewed ca calpers, she laughed about how much she put into bitcoin. it's fun but irrelevant to real markets. the real problem is if you get involved as a fiduciary, and it gets regulated and cut in half or goes to zero, who knows what, you have never seen the mother of all class action lawsuit that's coming from that one. it will make the robinhood thing this morning look like nothing, and as a fiduciary, a chairman of an indexing company, never. >> why, though, kevin, do you have so many big name investors now getting behind it, i mean, stan dominican republicrukenmils why are they doing that? >> because, look, there's nothing wrong with the idea of a

dangera digital currently, and they have every right to do that, but when i get up in the morning and i'm talking to thousands of advisers and hundreds of pension plans funds, and i ask them, what do you want to do with digital currency, and they basically say nothing until the regulators okay with it what we should be doing here, and certainly tony, and pomp and i talk about this all the time out there on the internet is why can't we get a common regulated digital currency globally. the european regulator, the swiss, the british, the asians and our domestic markets, then you've got something to invest in, until then, let's have fun with this thing. it's irrelevant, though. it's a nothing burger in the context of the multitrillion dollar currency market or the multitrillion dollar alternative asset. it is absolutely nothing so look, i'm all for it. but it's not real. it's just fun. >> okay. all right. so pomp, nothing i could say

ko could set you up for a response any better than what kevin o'leary just said. the floor is yours >> look, i think that bitcoin has kind of proven all of the haters wrong right? we're talking about an asset that is very volatile. when you put a noncorrelated asymmetric asset into a portfolio, it can do all kinds of really beneficial things. if we look off the market bottom of december 2018, it's up over 600% the asset during a global pandemic, an economic crisis is up over 200% this year gold is up about 25%, s&p is up about 15%, and so i always just say that the market is the referee, and kevin and i can come on here and share our opinions, but ultimately the market is going to decide who's right, and who's wrong, and i think that the market is rendered a decisive victory for the bitcoiners this year, in saying that in a time of crisis, in a time where people are uncertain, in a time where people are looking for safe

haven assets, capital flowed to the hardest money that's ever been created and i think that bitcoin is only just getting started. what we have to understand is it's supply and demand there's a programmatic supply to the asset. we know how much is being created every day. 900 bitcoin per day coming into the supply there are way more demand than there is supply, and that's where i think you're seeing this price explosion, and the people who are showing upnow, the fidelities, gothey're showing up with hundreds of millions of dollars of demand, buying up all the bitcoin. there's not enough to go around. you're going to see the price move upwards for the future. >> i totally get why in a year like we've had that bitcoin and other, you know, safe haven assets, if you will, would have done well, but kwhawhat happens you get into 2021. everybody gets vaccinated or enough people, excuse me, get vaccinated and we get back to

some semblance of normalcy, and assets like bitcoin fall out of favor as a result, does that make sense >> yeah, so there's two things to understand about the market structure. there's one what i call the bitcoin black hole, gray scale, the bit wise index, these instruments where basically you can invest in a private placement. they create units or shares and go and buy bony with the money in the private placement that cannot come back out. there's no redemption feature of those funds, and so that's not going to go back into the market in kind of what i call the addressable circulating supply also, when you have corporations, square, micro strategy, and others putting it in their treasury on their corporate balance sheets, that's not coming back out into the market, and so what you continue to do is people are basically taking bony off the market, and you don't need tons of new entrants but i actually think we're underestimating the psychological shift that investors have gone through. the u.s. government just ran an almost $4 trillion marketing

campaign for the devaluation of the u.s. dollar, and investors are listening, they're paying attention. and they're choosing to move their capital into an area where they can protect their wealth, and bitcoin served not only a store of value, you know, kind of perspective, but also an asymmetric type potential return and i think we haven't had an asset like that, and as people wake up and understand it, you're going to continue to see more and more capital flow into the asset in the coming years. >> you know, kevin, it doesn't sound like your buddy from shark tank, mark cuban thinks it's a nothing burger and irrelevant. i just saw a story last night when i was reading up to prepare for this segment, headline, dallas mavericks offers special merchandise discounts for bitcoin buyers, so i mean, that's another arena, pardon the pun, where you could see legitimacy to bitcoin from people like mark cuban, your buddy, who are trying to make this a more relevant part of

people's lives >> you know, i know mark quite well he also was quoted saying he thinks bananas are a bigger common currency, and he's probably right i want to go to pomp's issue about this idea that you're protecting your capital buying bitcoin. there's no evidence that it has a reverse correlation to correcting markets last march, if you owned bitcoin, you got slaughtered and you had a lot more volatility than the s&p, my whole point is there's a lot of interesting ideas here, and certainly the fact that bony, all the others haven't worked but bitcoin has this concept of a digital currency is one that would work. my whole point is for all of us, including you, scott, who monitor and work with the financial services multitrillion dollar global industry, is this a nothing burger it's not even a single cell a e amoeba if you took all of the market cap of bitcoin, totally irrelevant i love to talk about it, you know, it's fun to watch it go up and down, but during the day

when the bell rings, i don't talk to might be that's worried about this they do not put capital to work in bitcoin maybe it's fun if you're an individual high net worth person that wants to just play with it, but the financial markets deal with regulators, and you can only operate within the confines of those rules so when we glorify something like this, it really has nothing to do with the financial markets that make the whole world work, and no institutional or sovereign fund investor i have talked to said go index all of the cryptocurrencys for me, and the reason they don't want to own that is they fear the regulator. and watch what happens one day, and i'm waiting for this one, i'm waiting for the day that one of these regulators comes down hard on bitcoin. grown men are going to weep when that happens you'll never see a loss of capital like that ever in your life it will be brutal, and i'm just saying you have to get ready for

it listen, i'm ready to risk -- i've got $52 here, i could lose it all, and i don't know where 1-800, you know, operators are standing by to explain what happened it's not going to. this is just eithether that's all it is. >> anthony, to that point, you have proposals on wallet regulations that seem at least at first glance a little severe to say the least what could that risk, i guess, entail what's the reality in terms of that being implemented, especially if you have the two week comment period over the holidays, and what other regulations potentially would maybe create a more amenable environment for some of that constitutional money to flow in more freely? >> yeah, look, bitcoin is a $430 billion asset, 20 x from here gets you to a gold market cap. i think that will happen before the end of the 2020s, regulation is definitely something to pay attention to one of the things to be clear

about for this wallet regulation that has been proposed we know that kyc and aml don't actually deliver most of what the promise of it what what i mean is there's a lot of studies that show that by conducting just absolute, you know, financial surveillance, what happens is there's so much information that ends up getting collected that it's hard to find the signal in the noise, and so what we need to do is we need to come up with much smarter regulations where we don't just say, hey, let's surveil everything, and also on top of that, i think we have to remember that in bitcoin specifically, there is a public ledger and so every single transaction is put into that public ledger and so this asset specifically has some advantages over others when it comes to transparency. >> yeah. >> so regulation, there's going to be a lot of people talking about it, i'm personally not worried about it i think that regulators in the crypto industry will come together they'll find the right kind of center. >> we'll see what happens in 2021 nvertigot to lever the

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welcome back, the chief of operation warp speed saying a vaccine rollout is quote slower than expected in the u.s joining us is dr. matthew freeman, micro biologist with the university of maryland medical school thanks for being with us this morning. >> thanks for having me. >> in regards to the rollout, i think the other big news of the week really has been calling into question potentially or at least the debate, the discussion

around these vaccines as they do roll out, and what that will mean as we get reports of variants, new variants of covid-19 in places like the u.k. and south africa is there any reason to believe that these vaccines that are being authorized for use could potentially not work as well against these new variants as we are seeing lock downs happening in key parts of the world right now. >> it's a very good question, that's what researchers are working on now is analyzing the cera coming from patients that are vaccinated and see if it protects against the virus in the lab. that's ongoing there doesn't seem to be a structural reason of the virus right now that it should be linked to resistance to this vaccine, but that's certainly something we're looking at in our lab, and many of the labs around the world. >> yeah, i mean, you were one of the first doctors in the country to actually receive samples of that covid-19 virus back in february have you received samples of these new variants are you studying them? >> we are planning on studying

them now we have not received a sample of this variant in the united states yet, but that's certainly something we're looking at doing now, and comparing that to our vaccine work as well as antibodies and drug work to make sure this new variant is able to be inhibited by those current therapies. >> yeah, and of course we've got two vaccines right now that are rolling out and being distributed here in the u.s., but there are others in the pipeline what would you expect, what do you anticipate in terms of more data and what that means for potential other vaccines being available to the american public in the coming months >> so there's additional vaccines that are now in trials. there's the novavax vaccine in the uk and johnson & johnson and astrazeneca, as well as the moderna and the pfizer vaccines. so all of these doses will be accruing as the trials end and more doses of the moderna and pfizer biontech vaccine are available. and so there's currently been a rollout, as you know, across the united states to these pieces

of -- to these doses, and as more people get vaccinated, just health care workers at the front lines, we'll hopefully be seeing a downturn in cases but in the united states right now there's a huge number of cases there's still 300,000 deaths total. yesterday there was over 225,000 cases and 3,400 deaths we have a lot of virus in the community, certainly not a time to kind of give in and give in to the pressures of wanting to be around family and friends around the holidays. the big worry is that around christmas we're going to -- people are going to give in and want to be around their family which is a big concern for health care workers that are going to see a surge of cases hike we saw after thanksgiving. >> dr. frieman, thank you for joining us today happy holidays. >> thank you very much. two members of the problem solvers kau sus, abocaucus and

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it's the day before christmas and for the last ten years we have been using this space to slow down and bring clear but this year has been

brutal, so let's speed things up and get to the end of this whole cluster. pandemic worsening, stimulus stalling, deal in sight, pelosi is calling, virus triggered market pays, now on track for yearly gains, election came, election went, biden won but trump won't quit, campaign season unending, georgia race pending. how soon will you get the jab. so settle in and be our guest, with morgan, scott, and ars, let's talk about your none, retail stocks, and the dow, this christmas eve "squawk box" begins right now ♪ jingle bell jingle bell jingl bell rock ♪ ♪ jingle bell swing and jingle bells ring ♪ ♪ snowing and blowing up bushel of fun ♪ >> good morning and welcome back fo "squa to "squawk box" a special christmas eve morning edition of our program. i'm andrew ross sorkin, along

with a singing and dancing morgan brennan, scott wapner is here as well, in for joe and becky, and a big shout out to dave evans who wrote na cothat open he does it every year, and does it brilliantly it's an extraordinary thing. as we're all getting ready for the big holiday tomorrow, and getting things, i got to go do some shopping. we were talking about, scott, we didn't talk to you at the top of the 6:00 hour, has all the shopping been completed or is there anything to be done today? >> it's all done it's all done, and i think -- >> good for you. >> the way that i did it, speaks to the kind of year we're in, you know. >> all online. >> i didn't set foot in a store. it's just the way it is, but i'm done and i'm happy to be done. >> i'm behind, and i may have to step into a store today, but don't tell my family let's show you u.s. equity futures at this hour

right now, we're about an hour and a half before the market opens, and it looks like it would open about 53 points higher on the dow, s&p 500 looking to open 6 1/2, nasdaq up about 16 points. we should mention u.s. markets close at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today. european markets are closed all day, morgan. >> here are some of the stories investors will be talking about. britain and the european union, striking a post brexit trade deal four years after the u.k. voted to leave the e.u it's likely to leave britain with a distant relationship to the eu than most expected when the brexit vote happened in 2016 fishing rights are among the final sticking points in the deal those are expected to be worked out. as you can see there, we have the british pound strengthening against the dollar this morning on these headlines also take a look at the euro

this morning, that is also, well, modestly stronger against the dollar on these brexit headlines. meanwhile, alibaba is the target of a newly launched antitrust investigation by the chinese government among other things. regulators are proving the company's demand, ally ba nd ja dorsey's payments technology company is talks to buy music streaming service title, according to rapper and music mogul jay-z bought title for $56 million in 2016, but it has struggled to compete with the likes of spotify and apple music. scott. mouse democrahouse democrato have a christmas eve vote after president trump slammed a bipartisan covid relief bill finished earlier this week eamon javers joins us with the latest an 11th hour wrench from the

president leaves us where? >> reporter: it's a mess in washington, scott, that's just the only way to describe it. we don't have any idea where any of this is going to go the president says he doesn't like the bill that his team negotiated and he had an opportunity to participate in for months take a look at the numbers, overall, this is a spending end covid relief bill, $2.3 trillion, top to bottom $900 billion of that is for the covid relief piece of it the president suddenly calls it a disgrace he says what he wanted to do is increase stimulus checks per person from $600, which is in the bill, to $2,0$2,000 per per. nancy pelosi said if you want to do that, we'll do it she's going to offer a unanimous consent offering this morning expected to raise that stimulus check amount to $2,000 he's going to call the president's bluff on it, scott, saying let's do this thing that puts republicans in the awkward position of now voting against the thing that the

president says that he wants kevin mccarthy, the republican leader sent a note to his members. he says he's going to offer something else he says house democrats appear to be suffering from selective hearing. they have conveniently ignored the concerns expressed by the president and shared by our constituents that we ought to re-examine how our tax dollars are spent overseas while so many neighbors at home are struggling to make ends meet. kevin mccarthy says he's going to strip out some of the funding that the president has signalled out that he doesn't like from this package, separating this into pieces and maybe move these pieces neither effort is expected to win the day today. republicans are going to vote down the democratic amendment. democrats are going to vote down the republican one, and so once this is all said and done, we're going at the beginning of the race line again, and far away from the finish line here in washington as we try to figure out what the president wants and where all of this is going to land

the big question here as everyone is calling everyone else's bluff in congress is the president bluffing as well, and will he ultimately sign the combined package none of that is known at this point, scott >> okay. eamon javers, thank you, and a merry christmas to you as always meantime, new jersey representative josh gottheimer is going to join us right now along with new york representative tom reid, cochairs of the bipartisan problem solvers caucus, and they have been spearheading the covid relief bill efforts thus far congressman gottheimer, are we playing politics all over again? i know you guys are trying to be the good guys here, but there's something else happening >> the whole thing is inkr incredulous. we worked for months, as you know, democrats and republicans, not just in the house and the senate, we got to an agreement, the president's representatives, including the secretary of

treasury, we agreed, voted in the house and senate overwhelmingly with support from both sides, and suddenly out of nowhere, the president decides to hold this hostage it makes no sense, trying to undermine the piece of legislation that he helped craft and what makes very little sense is you're talking about on christmas eve here where tomorrow, excuse me, on saturday, 14 million americans' unemployment will fall off the rolls. people evicted from their homes. this is the second round of ppp loans to help small businesses, including resources to get the vaccine out, this is an emergency pandemic relief package with the country in a really really tough time, and to do this and to veto this makes no sense to me >> but explain this to me real quick, and i want to get to congressman reid, should pelosi be pushing the $2,000 price tag now? >> well, the president said

direct checks to people, which is critical, something tom and i have supported, from my perspective, if they want to add more to make the president happy, i've always been forgiving out more resources to be helpful to people in a tough time, so if we can help with that, terrific but keep in mind, we worked so hard to bring this package together to get democrats and republicans on board, so i think we should pass this piece. we should get this piece of legislation signed and then we should add more to it. i'm happy we're introducing that today. if the president signs it's terrific doesn't make sense to blow the whole thing up and hurt people and undermine all of the pieces of this legislation which is so critical >> right congressman reid, will republicans go along with $2,000, and if they don't, what happens? >> well, that's exactly why going to the floor today by the speaker only takes care of one piece of the equation from the president's objection, and it has to do with the other side of the bill which deals with the spending and foreign aid lines that's why this whole process, i

think everyone agrees, and that's why we in the problem solvers caucus, don't wait to the dead licenlines. i think there's broad agreement we shouldn't do it this way. we are where we are. what we should be focus ongoing is where we agree, $900 billion of coronavirus emergency relief, like josh articulated, need to go out to the people today we all agree on that we worked on that. we found common ground the idea of increasing the checks, we can potentially deal with that later. right now, let's do what we can agree upon let's get this bill done we're working around the clock, since we got the curve ball thrown here in the last 24 hours to get it done >> congressman reid, good morning to you are you saying that you won't vote yes for the $2,000 if the speaker brings it to the floor this morning >> kevin mccarthy made it clear he's going to object to it today. they're going to play this game on the floor of the house,

because that needs unanimous consent. that's why when we negotiated this for months and worked with the white house representatives, we worked together on the covid relief, and you're conflating when you talk about the spending side of the equation and the covid relief, it's two separate items, it's a shame we had to put it all together. congress waited until the last minute, and that's a frustration, we have to change congress to do a better job. the bottom line is the $2,000 issue is separate and distinct from where we found the common ground in the covid relief bill with $600. the unemployment of $300 being increased. if you put the $2,000, are you going back to the unemployment issue, we're giving cash of 2,000, and all of my members, i know are going to say reduce that to 0. why should you give them $30 a week in unemployment when they're getting $2,000 cash payments this whole thing starts to unravel. we need to deliver this now to the american people. that's why it's so critical we're going to get this done, and we're not stopping in the

problem salvers caucus because what we do, put people first, and don't play the political theater. >> but i'm just wondering, congressman reid, what you think about the position that the president has put you in he's put your party in a bit of a box, hasn't he >> well, obviously that is a frustration that i think many of my colleagues and myself, you know, working with the president. that was one of the first eight to endorse the president and i will tell you, when you raise these issues at the last minute like this, it's very concerning. but i understand the frustration of the president i understand this presentation, but blind siding folks, and doing this at the last second, to me, is not conducive because the american people are the ones who lose in this fight the american people and this is where i speak to the president right now, the american people, millions of american people, we negotiated this, they're waiting for this relief. people are being hired on monday, because they're waiting

on the paycheck protection program. tens of thousands of people are going back to work i implore the president. please think of those people, and i encourage him, sign this covid relief bill. i understand your concern about the foreign aid. i totally appreciate that, but the people that we negotiate for this 900 billion are waiting for this relief, and it can be done, and it can be done with a stroke of your pen and you have the power to get it done. >> congressman gottheimer, if you are focused on the solution here, game this out for me, what does this look like over the coming days, then? is this a situation where it makes the most sense to break the two pieces of this omnibus bill apart, and work on them separately, a continuing resolution to make sure the government doesn't shut down next week? >> you pointed out, if he doesn't sign the bill which is going to the desk, the government will shut down in the 28th which throws a whole series of problems for veterans and seniors, people with medication, a whole other problem. what i would encourage is sign

this bill, get this bill passed, something we agreed upon representatives who were at the table. don't deliver a giant lump of coal in people's stockings, for our families, and businesses, and communities, get that done get the vaccine out to people, and separately vote fanneup and, more resources, more stimulus checks that would be great. i would support that keep it separate don't blow everything up how this plays out, i'm hoping as tom said, as he signs the legislation, he can have a separate debate on more checks and get the dollars out. those were all part of his budget we passed that all together. that was a separate piece of legislation, part of the same package we voted on, but it's passed it is signed let's just sign it all, get it done, and help people at christmas time here, it makes no sense to blow this all up and to shut the government down here. >> congressman reid, before we get you go, you have been a

supporter of president trump over the years curious what your view is of the number of pardons that we have seen, not just the number but who, including of course man charles kushner, how it will impact stimulus, and other measures that will happen between now and january? >> so i don't think it's going to impact this conversation about stimulus, and getting it signed, but obviously this is a presidential power, and i leave that, again, up to the people. i believe in the power of the people and the wisdom of the people to review it. i know the pundits and folks in d.c. will judge that from their own perspective but i encourage the president, when you issue the pardons, understand it has an impact on the presidency, it has an impact on how people are going to look at that power, but it's his power and it's under the constitution >> okay. congressman got half-time congressman gottheimer, congressman reed, we appreciate you joining us this morning, we

wish you a very merry christmas, and we hope washington and your colleagues can frankly get their acts together so that so many americans can have a merry christmas as well. thank you. scott. >> ner merry christmas, to some common sense in the new year. >> here here. >> we can only hope. all right. gentlemen, coming up, bitcoin investor, mike novogratz joins us as the trump administration prepares to head out the door. christmas could be a pivotal day for streaming media. a bonafide block buster premiering on hbo max and in theaters, will it prove to be an inflection point for not one but two industries stay tedun you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box" on christmas eve 2020. wonder woman 1984 premieres in movie theaters and on hbo max tomorrow it's stoking the already intense competition between theaters and streamers and could redefine hollywood's future julia boorstin joins us with

more on this topic julia. >> good morning to you, morgan warner brother's hybrid release of the 18 movies, it's a bold new approach to the industry wonder woman 1984 will be released to the roughly one-third of u.s. theaters that are now open and to hbo max's 12.6 million subscribers in the u.s. morgan stanley writing we expect the recent news around the warner movie slate to support hbo max momentum, though this will increase the optimal revenues and create additional costs. the question with theater chains down dramatically this year is how much the availability of big titles at home will keep people from returning to theaters when they do open in larger numbers bank of america writing quote if the covid vaccine is distributed quickly, and consumers do not return to theaters, it may reveal consumers' performance to watch content at home. if consumers return to theaters, warner media can mimic, and

direct to consumer separately. so just how big a threat is streaming overall. not just warner max to theaters. deloitte reports that post-pandemic, more than 2/3 of consumers say they would want to watch at least some movies in theaters, but people have become more comfortable with at-home entertainment in general early in covid, consumers found they could rent at home. 90% said they would do that again. universal, cnbc sister company and disney will be selling theatrical releases next year, charging an additional fee it will be interesting to see how consumers respond, whether it's flocking to the subscription model or an eagerness to pay a download fee to watch movies that have just been in theaters. >> there's something nice about sitting in your pajamas, and popping popcorn and hanging out on the couch with a new movie. i know we have been debating

this, but revisit it one more time, how long could we actually see this type of dynamic last, is it something that's going to stretch beyond the pandemic? >> well, so warner brothers, warner media said this was the plan for 2021. so this is just all about next year, their next 18 movies over the next year. it's interesting that just yesterday they announced release dates for 2023 that were just theoretical release dates indicating by 2023, they will definitely be back to a more traditional theatrical release model. it will be interesting to see how it plays out clear signaling with the dating of those movies so far in the future, just for theaters. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin joining us there. joining us to talk about the biggest streaming battles in 2021, sean at kgiatkins, and ed "new york times" corporate media reporter and cnbc contributor. good to see you both

ed, i'll go to you first, if you want to take a stab at the issue morgan and julia were talking about, whether you think this hybrid model from warner brothers is going to be permanent and become the norm industries wide? >> i think jason kyler, the guy who heads up warner media who came up with this hybrid model, i think he is using next year as a big big experiment, just to see how much he can goose hbo max subs, once he puts, you know, wonder woman, 1984 on streaming, gwen, fagain for no a cast, similar to what disney did for mulan, you had to pay an extra $30 to watch it in the first month, otherwise you had to wait to see it. i think it's a consumer forward, consumer friendly plan, if 2021 draws out customers for hbo max, and they stick, he might actually change his mind later on down the line he's actually doing something

different from what other guys are doing, you know, universal, disney, everyone, they're trying to preserve that windowing system, where there's theoretical, there's rental and download, and then when they get to the pay one window when they're licensing it to cable, whether it's hbo or show time or others, that's when they really make their profit. what warner is doing is just the reverse, they're doing the pay one window first, so again, they really need to goose their hbo max. that's a big part of their game. if it works, i think it might actually stick. >> the pandemic has changed so much about how we live and how industries operate, is this going to be permanent? are these two industries, because it is not an industry, it's an industries issue, what warner brothers has initiated here, does it stick, and does it spread >> i think it sticks and spreads. i think the one thing that jason is very good at is understanding what consumer behavior is, and putting consumers first, and no

matter what trend you look at in terms of consumer behavior they're very clearly expressing on a global basis this they want control of their entertainment they want it in their windows at the most cost efficient way possible that doesn't mean that the theatrical window is gone forever. it does mean the consumer is considered as one of the possibilities for their consumption. i tell people all the time, i can have a great music experience listening to my favorite album at my house but i also sometimes want to go to a concert and see it. i think the same variability is going to be happening in the audio-visual mechanism, where, hey, it turns out as a father with four kids, it's a better experience for me as a consumer to watch a pixar film in my living room than it is to drop $150 to see it at a theater, but at the same time, i definitely want to see avatar on an i max screen when it comes out in 2022 i think that's the truth of the

bayer, a behavior, and what ur you're sen is major players, trying to protect their economic window while pivoting to the truth of the behavior >> curious, and maybe sean wants to weigh in on this as well, the decision by warner to take this approach has clearly upset a lot of folks in hollywood, and they have upset the folks in hollywood, including major directors, actors, folks who had back end deals that have been completely upended by this throughout the question is whether the christopher nolans of the world say you know what, i'm never working for niece people again i don't like this guy. i don't like these people. they have treated us unfairly. in some of these cases, there are movies that were supposed to be a series in the future. it's going to screw up the economics of that. we don't trust these people, we're out. we're going to do business with netflix, and everybody else. is that real should that be a real concern if you're a shareholder of warner >> well, remember when netflix

was sort of the bad guy in town, when no one wanted to work with netflix, and you know, movies should be seen on big screens. you've got the irishmen, they figured out their hybrid model i think crihristopher nolan, hei very outspoken, called hbo max the worst streaming service. i think they're going to come back ultimately, money is money if hbo, warner media is willing to spend the money, give you the creative freedom to make the film the way that you want to make it, they will come back hbo max is sort of the bad guy. >> ed, the issue, i think there's a distinction here, when netflix was the bad guy in theory meaning theory was that actors and directors didn't want, you know, to lose the big screen this is a different situation. this is people who had contracts and the contracts have effectively just been rewritten because, you know, jason decided

he wants to rewrite them and a demonstrable economic impact tho thoo those individua. if warner calls everybody and says we're going to be, as he said, very generous, and we're going to pay you through the nose to make this right, i agree with you, everybody is going to be happy that doesn't seem to be what's happening here, sean. >> i think this is a moment in time problem you hit it on the head the issue is that a big bomb was dropped without talking to the town, so it changed contractual expectations, and just frankly, you know, business relationship expectations and i would feel the same way, if i had made a big motion picture and expected and was told one day without permission that it was just being done, i would be pretty upset as an artist and a business americperson i think this is a moment in time issue. they have to work through this, prepare those relationships but at the end of the day, i don't know a creative in the industry that doesn't know that streaming

is the future, and i don't a creative in the industry that if they get paid the right amount, the right amount of creative freedom and has the ability to get their product seen by the most amount of people on a global basis that isn't ultimately their pull. when you start thinking of the scale of netflix, disney, hbo max, when it finally gets to attempt, there will be a theoretical experience that can compete with the amount of eyeballs that will see your art and your product at that scale so for me, i really just think this is sort of a not handled the best experience but that the creative industry, look, it's always pivot around this thing going all the way back to, you know, we had a takis problem, we had a color problem when we started adding color to film these aren't new issues, i just think it was a blip in time in terms of how it was handled. >> the economic, streaming is not a money making business. that is still something, you know, that these big companies are going to have to reckon with

through next year and the following year netflix will still be burnicash year 2 million subscribers, which is still crazy to me. >> we have to leave the conversation we wish you a very very merry christmas. when we come back on the other side, the window for holiday shopping is closing, and we get an early read on who's winning and maybe who's losing and what's changed in a year unlike any other stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" right here onnb cc.

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coming up, could anonymity in the cryptocurrency world be coming to an end as institutional interest ramps up. michael novogratz is going to join us on controversial new proposed regulations we could get in the next few weeks. stay tuned as futures this morning point to a modestly higher open on this holiday shortened trading day. stay with us, you're watching "squawk x"n bc ♪bo ocn ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning to our christmas eve edition of "squawk box." big topic of the year, bitcoin has taken a wild ride starting 2020, about $7,000 per coin, now trading at $23,000, and that's a gain of about 220% there's a sour note for crypto investors as we end the year the industry could be facing some forceful new regulations, thanks to the treasury department, treasure secretary steven mnuchin on his way out joining us now to explain as

mike novogratz, galaxy ceo, mike, dpraet great to see you what i can't understand is the move in bitcoin against the backdrop of what appears to be an effort by mnuchin on his way out to effectively regulate a good part of this business and people like brian armstrong of coin base and others saying this is a real problem, and yet the price keeps moving higher. square the circle. >> it tells you about how powerful this bull market is they are throwing lots at the system, and it's not actually impacting it but let's be careful, you know, these regulations really are hitting stable coin market and they're hitting, they're not actually designed to go after bitcoin in theory, they're designed to go after the companies that traffic in them, and those are mostly companies with retail. so at galaxy, nothing changes. we have institutional clients, so we've got this institutional

wave of money coming into crypto mass mutual, an insurance company buys 100 million for their general account. that's giant news, right, that needs to get a boot by the fed and the insurance regulation we're seeing no slow down in the adoption of bitcoin specifically with our institutional clients it is, i mean, mnuchin, you know, two weeks before he's leaving, he decides to be the grinch, this stuff should have proper 60 day comment period it's kind of endemic of the trump administration trying to jam in legislation there are a lot of unattended consequence. it's anti-dollar, pro china in the lot of ways, and antiinnovation, that's going to push a lot of cool stuff happening in crypto offshore the other thing to think about when you step back, think about travis of uber, in order for him to get uber done, he smashed

regulations, city regulations, they even banned him in the hamptons, and at one point, consumers demanded uber, and you know, he kind of pushed the edge of the envelope. we can't do that at galaxy we're regulated. but lots of these crypto companies, both on shore and offshore are willing to push regulation, and build great innovation i would love an administration that embraces that, not fighting that i'm hoping, you know, might charge in 20 days. i'm hoping we get some more open minded regulators. >> mike, if we have the same conversation a year from today, so christmas eve 2021. the upside in your mind from where the price of bitcoin could be and the downside of what the price could be >> listen, you know, bitcoin right now is about 3% of gold. i think it can easily be 10% of

gold, so that's 65,000 60,000 i don't think that's hard. i just see that many new participants coming in to the market listen, the downside, i'd be really upset if it was below 14,500 that would probably mean on a good sense that the economy has roared back much faster than people thought, right, vaccine comes, huge surge in the economy, and whoever is running the fed chairman powell or his successor says, oops, maybe we were a little too pessimistic, and maybe we're going to have to raise rates sooner at that point i think all assets are going to come lower. it's not my base case by any stretch. i think what's the valet that would derail the equity bull market rally, and this rally in bitcoin. >> yeah, mike, i mean, there's the cryptocurrency conversation, right, and particularly from a market standpoint and there's that underlying technology that we have heard for years now is going to change the world but hasn't really been adopted on a

mass scale i see something like vaccine distribution, and it seems like a no brainer opportunity for that technology to be applied. why has that been so slow to come >> listen, you know, we say it's slow because we live in life atheo ethereum is 6 years old, it has made progress. the idea of decentralized financing, which grew from 2 billion to 20 billion and so 20 billion is not giant but it's a big year on year growth rate give it time you are going to see the block changing of the world, you're going to see the ethereum network power a lot of that. i really fundamentally believe, stable coins, right, we are going into a digital world we're going to digital dollars, digital euros, can the faster governments embrace that and figure out their regulatory framework, the better chance they're going to have. that's all being built on the ethereum blocks, and i use

ethereum, there are other block chains that staple into it, but just generically that's where the ethereum block chain comes in. >> it's wapner, i know you were listening to the conversation that we were having earlier with anthony pompliano and kevin o'leary because you tweeted as you were watching it yourself, and you said, i'm surprised that he understands so little you were speaking about kevin o'leary. >> yeah. >> there are insurance companies buying bitcoin for their general account. think about that, they get fed and regulator approval to do that can't wait for 8:30 on "squawk." kevin's premise was that institutions wouldn't touch this thing. here's your floor, it's not 8:30 it's now about 8:45, but respond. >> institutions are coming to bitcoin by the day right, asset managers are buying there was a european asset manager that bought $600 million of bitcoin it's not a small position. it's not $52

there's three insurance companies, one has gone public, but three life insurance publics that have bought bitcoin for their general ledger that i know of who knows how many more, you have seen scott menard, though i'm not sure black rock is participating yet, the list goes on and on. that debate was had and won 18 months ago, and the jury really voted six months ago, and so there's no longer career risk this buying bitcoin. there's no operational diligence risk anymore we have a bitcoin fund that actually was rated, you know, top rating by mercer in odd, and so, you know, you've got the rating agencies, you've got the consultants, everyone is on board, but this is a macro asset, so i think kevin is just, you know, playing on his 2017 information. >> okay. mike, we wish you a merry

christmas. appreciate it. and look forward to talking a lot more in the new year >> thanks, guys. >> morgan. >> and i like that rocket tattoo you've got as the resident space reporter here. how brick and mortar and online retailers handled the holiday shopping rush. by the way, it's still going on, just ask andrew who has to buy some more presents stay tuned, "squawk box" will be right back it's been a tough year. and now with q4 wrapping up, the north pole has to be feeling the heat.

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the last minute holiday shopping rush, it's clearly different this year, and if you waited, you might have out of luck bertha coombs joins us now with more good morning, bertha. >> hey, good morning, scott, and christmas eve is the day when there is the strongest case for shopping in person and while holiday mall foot traffic has trended at about 50 to 60% of what it was this time last year based on anonmized phone location data from research orbital insights, we have seen a couple of spikes on big days, like black friday, the big spike and last saturday, foot traffic was just a above last year's levels and they are anticipating we could see that today as well. department stores have actually seen a bit better traffic than the malls themselves, with many of them pushing curbside pickup. but as stores have kept inventories lean this year, christmas eve pros krast neicras

like andrew, may find the hottest gift in short supply. >> if you look at athleisure and cozy comfortable, those are categories where you see stock outs. >> yeah, the number of out of stock items have nearly doubled this year, according to ecommerce analytics firm profidero, particularly when it comes to top athletic brands this month like under armour and columbia, and forget about it if you're looking for a ps 5 console. >> i know, so hard to find bertha coombs, thank you, with a really great live shot let's bring in industry veterans, joining is matt rabell former chief executive at varsity brands, and jan nippen, cnbc contributor regarding your list of predictions about 2020, you did admit that you didn't see covid having such an impact, i can speak, i can do it, but you did

say online sales growth would accelerate relative to in-store and bankruptcies would also increase i guess just sort of recap how 2020 has shaken out versus what you anticipated coming into this year, and how some of those trends are going to carry us into the new one. >> i had five predictions last year that came through despite everything else. i already said that bankruptcies and store closings would accelerate, i already said the rate of growth online was going to actually increase, not just the amount online but the rate of growth online i had already said grocery was going to actually really go online for the first time, and it would be crystal clear that there were only 278 real malls in north america that could grow and be strong, and inflation would be missing in action i can't believe when i looked back that i made those five predictions without a clue that covid was actually going to cause real disruption in u.s. retail because i made those in december of last year, and though i had heard of covid, i sure didn't really expect covid to take over retailing, but it

did. and so this year, i think all of those things are going to happen again, believe it or not, and then i also think that apparel and accessories will go crazy starting in april because i think the roaring 20s really are coming i know we're saying that way too much, but i think it's true, ano much, but i think it's true. i think we'll see online and omni channel go away as a name and we'll call everything digital or physical. there will be plenty going on next year including the consumer getting back out to lunch, dinners, bars, stuff and they're still buying home goods. >> i want to get your thoughts on this. i realize a lot of parcel carriers are overwhelmed because of all of that buying online the postal service being the key point of focus right now my local mall, i've been there a couple of times in the last couple of weeks, it's been busy. there have been lines because of the capacity issues.

similar situation at my local target where i couldn't get a parking spot are people starting to come out? is brick and mortar really dead or are we requesting to sgoing a resurgence >> brick and mortar is not dead. my wife was intent on going so we waited in line. i would say the malls that -- and i think jan has it right, whether it's 247 or whatever the number is. the top 2 to 300 malls are going to be winners in what happens here i think jan is right in what happens in that on some levels we shouldn't talk about omni channel. it's the basic tenants of convenience and great product innovated in a way that gets to the consumer at great prices, but the changes that have happened during 2020 accelerated

by covid and the social unrest and that change that is coming and moving slowly and methodically has gotten kind of like an electric shock that you get in a medical home to move forward. it's going to grow partially because people aren't traveling and doing things, you'll see retail sales grow more in the suburbs than the cities retail sales will grow more than in home goods. this is how people are living their lives, at home they're investing in their kids. they're investing in things the kids play with imaginatively or other ways they're investing in building out those home offices, building out the home gyms. we just saw the acquisition of, you know, another group of home equipment by peloton there's a lot going on that's changing but retail is alive and well and people are spending.

>> to that point, when we see the stimulus checks go out, direct payments to people in the u.s., i imagine you can see some of that money being put towards more sales as well jan, given the conversation we're having, what do you like are there certain names that you are keyed in on going into 2021 here >> well, morgan, i like you spent all day out in the malls yesterday. i will spend all day out today, but unlike our buddy andrew, i have actually already bought everything so i saw 200 people standing in line at the apple store. i think that's a good thing if you're apple, but the real strength i'm seeing is still target and walmart we're seeing enormous crowds there. but the malls i was in were busy just like the malls you were in were busy but they weren't as busy as last year. we know conversion is much better so i like all the upscale retailers like lvmh. i like caring. i like all of those people ralph lauren that are doing stuff with the customer that is

getting to them where they live. >> all right some names for the stockings potentially. gentlemen, thank you, merry christmas. >> merry christmas. coming up after the break, what to watch in the markets as we get set to wrap up the ayun, uaate week of 2020 st tedsqwk returns right after this state-of-the-art but dependable. in other words, you want a hybrid. so do telcos. that's why they're going hybrid with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps them roll out new innovations anywhere without losing speed. from telco to transportation, businesses are going with a smarter hybrid cloud, using the tools, platform and expertise of ibm. good work little buddy. ♪ ♪

take a look at futures now this time day before christmas modestly higher across the board. you see an implied open. the dow would open higher by a little more than 50 points the s&p by 6.5 the nasdaq positive by 15. joining us is liz young, director of market strategy and a cnbc contributor albeit a little earlier than we normally have a conversation on the markets. so tell me, does the stimulus mess throw coal on the santa claus rally or not >> it does throw a little bit of coal on it, scott, and one of the things we've been talking about for the last couple of weeks is that when you make a list of risks going into 2021, we had delayed fiscal stimulus on that list of risks.

i thought we could take it off earlier in the week, but we still have it on there i do hope we get it done but there is a risk we push back the recovery even further if we don't get this in time a couple of other things that i think investors will be served well to think of as risks as we enter 2021, there could be a little bit of a sentiment pull back what i mean little bit, it's not anything dramatic, but we did pull a lot of optimism forward there's a chance the market has to correct that and relax coming into january there's a question of has the yield curve priced in as much optimism as the stock market. >> there is an idea that you get a correction early in the year and then, you know, this is kind of the tom lee play, right you get this pull back maybe between february and april, but then you're off to the races in the second half. it's a backloaded year do you subscribe to that >> i do subscribe to that, but i actually think we start to see a little bit more up side before

then so when we talk about late spring, that's really when we think we're getting closer to herd immunity. markets feel like we're getting back to normal a pullback can happen in the next 60 days and then we start to recover what i would do if there is a pull back, add to things like small cap. if you don't have a position in small cap, start building positions in small cap build positions in international. asian em and the cyclical play everybody is talking about we would expect to take hold as well. >> what do you think of the move in energy lately is it a punk move? is it going to reverse itself? it has been the outperformer. >> it has been i struggle a lot to tell my clients to get excited about energy because, again, it's 2.2% of the index if you're invested in energy all year, you're still down 30% for the year so i don't know that energy is the place i'd want to take that

risk i don't think there's a good tradeoff it's over the long term a theme you want to watch in the renewable space. i don't think this is the time i want people to dabble in that energy play. there's a lot more places where we can set better expectations. >> i've got you. merry christmas. >> merry christmas two thank you. scott, morgan, thanks for hanging out today. want to wish everybody a merry christmas and make sure you join us on monday have a great day tomorrow. we'll see you very soon. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm john kiquint kneel yeah stocks close at 1:00 we have the legislative showdown on the hill between covid relief, government