points i can ask you both, do you think that the bills could sweep the series this year with the patriots or do you think the patriots show up tonight i'm just wondering >> what are they going to show up for >> because they just do for belichick. >> you're right. >> i don't know. that's my question make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street' is next goodern morning to "squawkn the street." carl and jim both have the morning off. let's give you a look at futures. you heard joe just talking about and looking for an up open when we begin tradesing a half hour from now the road map begins with the stimulus reversal and the president signing the covid relief bill just a few days after saying he had a lot of problems with it >> then a timeline to normal what dr. fauci is saying about

the logistics of vaccine distribution here in the u.s >> and finally jack ma's new antagonist why china's tech are cracking down on the ali baba around the stimulus bill the president signing the $900 billion relief bill. diana olick has the latest from washington diana. >> david, after breaking with his own party and calling the bill a disgrace just last tuesday, president trump signed it into law last night he's still demanding, however, that the $600 stimulus checks to individuals be increased to $2,000 former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney spoke on "squawk box" just an hour ago. >> throwing down a marker for his next political race and saying, look, i don't think this was enough money >> despite that, the bill delivers much-needed relief to individuals and businesses

it extends unemployment benefits for 14 million americans it gives small businesses $284 billion in forgivable loans in another paycheck protection program. $30 billion will go towards covid-19 vaccination and $82 billion to education and $25 billion to rental assistance it also includes a one-month extension of the cdc's eviction moratorium as for the checks for individuals, the house is expected to vote on a new bill today to raise that amount and the senate could tomorrow. but in a statement following the bill signing, mitch mcconnell made no mention of it at all senate minority leader chuck schumer made something of a dare the house will pass a bill to give americans $2,000 checks and then i'll move to pass it in the senate no democrats will object will senate republicans? the answer to that is still to come back to you guys >> we know what the answer will

probably be, don't we, diandian? >> i'm not going to say anything about what goes on in washington, but it's unlikely. >> diane, thank you. sarah, one would imagine a very different morning if the president stuck to what appeared to be his resistance to this bill but ultimately after four days deciding to sign it. >> right and i don't think that wall street was worried about it. stocks rose even when he threw a wrench in the last-minute talk saying he wasn't in favor of it. this is expected and this feels a lot of vaccine mondays that we have been accustomed to in the market a broad-based rally led by groups like airlines and cruises that are rallying hard overseas in premarket and a lot of the cyclical groups we got word from the uk that they're close to passing the astrazeneca vaccine and that ir they're getting ready with distribution plans next week and still waiting for some of the big ones here in the u.s

j a j&j and novavax and merck a later timeline than that as far as the stickulous talks are concerned, already getting an upgrade in gdp partly on the fact that we'll get another $900 million in stimulus. a frequent guest of the show says q1 gdp for the next year not going to be 5% versus 3% that's a big upgrade actually changes the whole growth trajectory for next year up to 5.8% for 2021. >> as you mentioned, a lot of the key uncertainty factors that were weighing on the markets and not, i guess we should say contributing to some of the volatility in the markets because the markets are up tremendously this year a lot has lifted as we look at the final trading week of this year and i guess if you had to point to something to look at moving ahead, it would be these georgia runoff elections that are

already next week. i can't believe they crept up on us this quickly. that's something we could look forward to as a potentially uncertainty lifting mechanism by finding the results of what the senate will look like. which is fascinating as you mention the fact that the markets weren't really that worried about the stimulus package. they really seem to shrug off the potential for uncertainty around that and, you know, i think clarification on that front is helpful one of the big questions i have is what happens to the section 230 which has been a big sticking point for president trump in particular and it's something that he's hoping to look at in a potential new bill, david. you know what that means for some of the tech companies it doesn't seem like he has too much political backing on that front on the hill. >> nor does he have a lot of time >> nor does he have a lot of time >> highly unlikely he threw it in there in his statement that when he signed

this bill but doesn't appear any movement on that sarah, i always turn to you. some of the other things that we watched and you watch more closely, of course the dollar commodities, negative yields around the world which continue to, i think, set records. you know, as the year comes as we sort of follow this trading during the course of what would be the last week of the year anything else sort of pop up for you? >> well, i would just say in everything you just mentioned all been very helpful for this overall better mood. the risk appetite we've seen in markets that have propelled stocks up more than 65% from their march lows and s&p double digits 14% or so higher for the year. you had low yields and they're creeping higher. we'll see if the ten year breaks 1% a key psychological level and the dollar sharper and that only picked up over this last quarter and real yields are low. i think, david, though, leslie

mentioned the georgia race and we talk about the uncertainties. when you look at some of the risks for 2021 and what you have to do after a year and a quarter of double-digit gains for the market, there is a risk that interest rates go higher and that the fed can't necessarily suppress them forever. a risk that the federal reserve has to start talking about the exits. a risk of inflation. there's a risk that the dollar goes the other way stronger and all of these factors, i think, are what some people are looking for. the other risk i would say, david, just that sentiment has become so extremely bullish. the panic euphoria model is in record levels of euphoria. that's the sort of thing that i'm watching after this market has just climbed so much we're in the middle of the so-called santa claus rally that is seasonably very strong. is this a market that is setting up for a correction and, if so, those are some of the catalysts that people are talking about especially when you look at that so far green light from all of them credit, dollar i mean, all of it. the federal reserve is super

dovi dovish it's not talking about taking away rates and that's the underpinning of the entire market >> leslie, the speculative nature of things we talk about in the 9:00 hour in particular, carl and jim and i and you, as well the incredible year it has been for special acquisition corporations that they reflect in some way, as well, that speculative nature and certainly some of those companies are development stage and we will be taking with us into the new year, as well. >> absolutely. based on conversations i've had with advisors to these things, it's not going anywhere any time soon in fact, a lot of people predicted the spac activity we've seen will extend across the globe. we haven't seen as much activity with spacs and in europe and asia they're predicting the whole spac frenzy will actually cross over the ocean into our

counterparts abroad as we've seen just tremendous, tremendous issuance here in the u.s. this year you've got margin debt at a record apologies. this year. another sign that, you know, perhaps things are getting a little tawpioptoppy. we saw that happened back in 2008 and 2000, as well three stocks apple, microsoft and amazon are the biggest contributors to the s&p 500 gains this year. you combine all of these things and you're starting to see a lot of experts talk about this euphoria and this frenzy and whether pockets of froth in the market and bitcoin hit a record above 28,000 this weekend. people are starting to talk about what this means for 2021 and as sara mentioned, a lot of risks out there that could derail a lot of this frenzy that we're seeing, david. >> yeah. of course, we spent a lot of time talking about our markets and we'll focus on some names here but a lot of it is going to be

the result of what we're seeing in china sara and leslie, because i did want to get to the chinese regulators really cracking down on financial this is a company, of course, we talked a lot about, leslie, not that long ago because it was on the precipice of becoming the single largest ipo that we've seen 35 roughly billion dollars was where it was going to be in terms of what they were going to issue. ali baba owns 33% of it. look what happened to those shares all of those taking place over this last week and weekend but even previous to that back to when jack ma seemed to really run afoul of the chinese regulators yet again you know he is unlike so many of ohis counterparts if he has any in china been more outspoken and it's not just when october when he criticized the regulators, it really goes back to january 2015 when he

criticized government regulators and then about taking payments or potentially at least having not doing their job when it came to really actually looking at counterfits on the alibaba site and favoring at the time what he said was j.d goes back to a number of other times when he said some things and then finally perhaps the last straw for the government being those kaumcomments in late october in which he criticized the regulator and had to pull the deal suddenly the regulations chan d changed. suddenly their business in terms of lending and not the digital payments business where they are dominant along with ten cent but their lending business and their other growth businesses were under fire and that has continued to the point where china central bank disclosed on sunday and asked to shake up its lending and other consumer finance operations they want them to rectify

violations and group saying ant will fully implement requirements raised at that meeting to bring in to line the operation and development or financial-related businesses by the way, alibaba also at least in the crosshairs, as well, in terms of its platform and whether or not it diminishes competition in some way. all of this, sara, amounting to a real blow being struck against mr. ma who, of course, we talked about a lot and i had the opportunity to interview a number of times through the years. it doesn't pay to be outspoken in china if you're a ceo many others have learned that lesson and keep a very low profile for this very reason >> and just like that, the vintage video of faber and ma. one question i'm wondering as it relates to investors in some of these hot chinese internet

stocks is this an alibaba and jack ma specific thing with the regulators or extend broadly to the entire tech sector and china. should investors be nervous if we'll see this huge crackdown which could ultimately squash, you know, a lot of innovation and a lot of these hot companies on these stocks that we've seen. it's unclear what their purpose is >> exactly the key question that is certainly being asked by many investors right now who continue to be excited by the potential for growth in china and, of course, the huge consumer economy that is still being developed there. don't forget, alibaba employs some 40 million people broadly speaking not just at the company but responsible for as many as 40 million jobs. just how far the chinese government would be willing to go to disadvantage that company is unclear your point is the important one and it may be that they really are just sort of trying to send a message through their actions here saying to other ceos, don't

step out of line don't criticize in the same way that mr. ma has done so. otherwise, you will fall victim to a new regulation to something that was unexpected. but it is a risk, sara, that we pointed out and many others have in terms of the government's ability in china to act as it wants to without the rule of law really getting in the way. and it continues to be so, it's going to be a key feature. obviously, we're watching the incredible fall on alibaba loss of hundreds of billions of market cap from its highs when it appears the ipo was about to hit the market and itself its business in a very different place now, leslie, as a result of this change that they're going to or at least the inability to pursue lines of business that really were going to be the key to its growth. >> and it's worth noting that the people's note of china with regard to ant was noticeably vague which could indicate your

point that this is this is more of aern warning shot to people want to criticize the government you have to look at the timing and say is this a pure coincidence following comments ma has made in recent months and years criticizing the government or is it something that the chinese government is really taking a harder line on these businesses the question, though, remains. what will they do about it do they go as far as breaking up ant financial and what would that mean for the systemic nature of their business given the outreach they have across the chinese economy and across the chinese financial system it's a big question, david >> we should add by the way that alibaba did increase the share buyback. i believe it's at $10 billion. before we wrap up here and get to a quick commercial break did want to get to breaking news novavax to latest to begin phase

three and rolling up to 30,000 volunteers across approximately 115 sites in u.s. and mexico and two-thirds of which will receive, we'rer are to etold th vaccine. the moderna and pfizer vaccines as we refer to them are in distribution right now, leslie well, i don't know when you and i will get them, but there are certainly people right now who are getting those shots in the arm thankfully >> our neighbors actually both physicians got them last week and the week before. that stock, though, novavax up 2,700% this year it was essentially, i mean, a penny stock before they said that they had a candidate for a vaccine. so, it's just remarkable the type of investor reaction you can get for a company that basically had nothing in the way of profits until they mentioned the potential here, sara >> i know, it's been an amazing high flier but just in terms of timelines

it puts it behind j&j hoping to get the stage three clinical trial which has already been enrolled data in the new year one shot could add a lot of supply. we need the vaccine supply desperately. the good news on novavax. oliver is ths thiswi uwi h winners. stay with us here on "squawk on the street." d to know exactly what your health insurance is going to cover, so you gotta protect your blind side. aflac! aflac pays you money directly to help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. really? aflac. get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. get to know us at aflac.com.

welcome back taking a look at futures ahead of the market open in ten minutes. we're pointing to a sharply high higher open. nasdaq up 117 building on the rally that we saw last week. as we head into the final four trading days of the year a quarter and the week don't go anywhere, opening bell just moments away. new projects means new project managers.

you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a short list of quality candidates from our resume database. claim your seventy five dollar credit, when you post your first job at indeed.com/home.

the challenges of distributing a vaccine are not just an american problem the problem it is in emerging markets. >> high temperatures makes distribution of the co vi orcov

vaccine where health care budgets have already been strained by the pandemic and access is an issue, too. high income countries have already reserved 9 billion of the estimated 12 billion doses expected to be produced next year analysts at citi warn it will not be until the end of 2022 or later that sufficient vaccines are available for lower-income countries with limited capacity for domestic production, which could certainly widen the economic divide between countries and potentially slow down the economic rebound that so many strategists are anticipating to play out next year experts say pfizer's temperature will limit its use in india which has an average temperature of 80 degrees fahrenheit and lack of access to those industrial-size freezers india is involved in mass producing astrazeneca and clinical trials of other vaccine candidates

but the sheer size of the country 1.3 billion people certainly makes the vaccine rollout particularly challenging in that country. as to the market, well, right now the market doesn't seem to be accounting for the specific risk emerging markets have been on a big run over the last eight weeks, sara. a lot having to do with the weaker dollar. such a big part of that story emerging markets right now trading right around the record high territory les. >> thank you, seema. we mentioned baba down for its second straight session reaching the lowest level since june following concerns over irregulatory crackdown in china. th a me tethbrk. stay with usea

these days, we want sophisticated but simple.

cutting edge made user friendly. in other words, we want a hybrid. and so do retailers. which is why they're going hybrid, with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps manage supply chains while predicting demands with ease. from retail to healthcare, businesses are going with a smarter hybrid cloud, using the tools, platform and expertise of ibm.

futures pointing to a higher open for stocks ahead of the bell in a few moments. stocks up 186 and merck and apple and tesla up 2% premarket and paypal also helping.

one of the key reasons investors start to position for 2021 is the rotation and which sectors lead the market higher if the market does continue to rise for instance, if you look year to date and we're in the last four trading days of the year technology is by far the bigger winner sector up 40% and consumer discretionary and communication services and that encapsulate all the faangs and high-tech growth stocks and the worst performerse energy and financials if you look over the past quarter and we are wrapping up the quarter and the past three months, david. financials and energy that are leading after the vaccine data comes out positive and starts getting distributed and a rethink of value versus growth of cyclical versus the momentum growth names that sort of always do well. the question is, what does the market do with that in 2021? does that rotation continue and can it continue to propel the market because the growth names are such a big overall

component. >> they are stretched although that hasn't seemed to bother anybody at this point. we talk about the valuations and the multiples and not even to earnings but to sales that are quite, quite high in some cases. although to be fair, the underlying growth is also quite high to your point, sara. last week the financials were quite strong jpmorgan announcing the big buy back that gave strength to the group and still down is jpmorgan some 10% for the year and interesting journal story about jamie diamine and his health when he had the aortic dissection, i think is what they call it. but he came back strong and the stock has come back strong somewhat over the last couple of weeks as you see it right there. even really, yeah, over the last couple of months i do come back to morgan stanley, though. up 33% this year as it really changed the composition of its business mix and over time and finally getting what the ceo

would say the respect it deserves from the market as a result of that change. >> yeah, you have that acquisition and absolutely diversifying there and, you know, as you mentioned the stress tests from a few weeks ago help lift some of the overhang on the big banks allowing them to, once again, engage in buy backs and jpmorgan the first to participate in that and a lot of people are saying value investors will they have their due in 2021. i think that's the big question especially as we head into the opening bell of the first of the last trading week of 2020. you can see there the dow is up 173 points, sara, to begin the last trading week of 2020. >> every sector opening higher led by materials and technology. so, growth or value, hey, today it's both of them. because you are seeing some of the growth names apple is on top of the dow right now and materials are winning and financials are up to your

point, david they're continuing their strong run from last week and industrials, utilities, real estate, energy is a key question, as well. this is a sector that is still down 36% for the year. by far the worst performer and attitudes have completely shifted around all of these companies and, yet, if you look at the past three months, it's done very well and there's been a huge comeback story here up 23%. crude oil prices have bounced as the dollar has weakened and the demand has continued to rise and lockdowns have eased and the economic picture looks bright for next year, david there is a question about energy after such a brutal year where we saw bankruptcies and all sorts of issues for this sector including their ability to attract capital in a way that they once did with esg making it through this crisis and continuing to attract a lot of investors. >> that, you know, listen, if not obviously for what we've gone through this year, sara, even more focused on the growth of esg strategies and sort of

the umbrella over a lot of assets that continues to grow in terms of the ability of those asset allocaturs or inability to necessarily go into areas that don't fit the sg profile that don't hit certain metrics and energy is one of the key ones. although we brought on mike worth from chevron many times and he talked about all the different efforts that company is making to try to solve for carbon seems hard to imagine, but they are trying because to your point you want to try to at least increase the number of potential investors that are out there as opposed to watching your shareholder base decrease. we should point out this is, i think, the largest single dollar number of writeoffs took place in 2020 for the oil and gas industry overall so, that was not particularly strong and that's, obviously, not just here in the u.s. but around the

world and then exxon mobile which i'll continue to focus in part, sara because a fight brewing between the company and de shaw. we'll see what develops there as it continues to be under some pressure, at least, to change its business not necessarily about greening the company as much at least there as just about capital allocation and what a number of investors feel like has not been the proper approach from that company over time. but to your point, sara, the stocks did bounce significantly off those lows the question is, does 2021 actually hold more good news for them >> yeah. and i think the question, too -- >> sorry, go ahead, sara >> oh, no, i was just going to say, just to throw in and go for it, leslie but just to throw in on exxon. cnbc did a quarterly stock report where they analyzed and what would be the best performing investment of 2021. guess what got the highest vote? exxon mobile

35%. under that was bitcoin at 26%, apple 13 and tesla and amazon. just to lay it out there for you. >> that is unexpected. >> that's remarkable because you have one asset exxon which has been one of the worst performers of the year. one of the worst performing companies in the energy sector as a whole and then you have a bitcoin that has gone on this remarkable tear in december on pace for its best monthly performance in almost a year it's interesting people think on one hand an asset if you want to call bitcoin an asset that has been in a position of strength and poised to continue that and then on the other hand you have exxon, which as david mentioned is embroiled in some potential activist fights. you have de shaw and engine number one teamed up seeking to put four directors on the board there. so, certainly some interesting movement on that front now, of course, the big question

in the oil industry as a whole is what happens to the dividends. how does the change in oil prices, it kind of creeps up towards $52 a barrel how does that impact the economics for what these companies are, you know, have been doing for years relative to how they want to really invest and pivot their businesses towards some of those esg aspects that we talk about number one want them to be considering especially as it changes their profile to attract some of those esg dollars. now, whether that's a trend, david, that continues into next year is one that i think will be really interesting to watch because esg ine grg investing ho many tailwinds this year in light of the pandemic and in light of the social justice protests we have seen. people have been focused on this area will that continue into 2021 that remains to be seen. >> agreed. sort of survived the recession

in terms of best puerformers th airlines and the cruise lines that are leading the charge right now. american airlines is the best performer in the dow keep in mind as part of this new stimulus bill that the president signed $900 billion in relief, the airlines do get their chunk of $17 billion in terms of relief to bring back workers bring back those furloughed workers. these names are rallying although a lot of them are still down 40% to 50% so far for the year and there is still this debate over whether they're good investments because their balance sheets become bloated and they take a lot more debt on and when and how is travel going to rebound, especially that all-important business travel which has not rebounded even though despite warnings from the cdc, people are traveling this holiday season more than a million now going through the tsa lines. >> yeah, and the companies have been successful in raising capital. it's something we pointed out any number of times and perhaps something that was unexpected back in march and april of this

year but so many of the travel-related companies including the cruise lines have been able to sell a lot of stock giving them the ability to withstand what has been a brutal period but your point is the important one, sara. when you talk about the long-term outlook for the airlines in particular and how business travel will actually line-up there. you know, leslie, you and i talked to a lot of executives. we all do during the course of a day and certainly during the course of a week and i still wonder and how many will get back to flying at the rate that they once did. not that they're going to go places but do an hour-long meeting that you once would have flown a long way to do with the likes of zoom and other services >> comfortable, it's convenient. i have yet to find an executive who says they want to go back to the way things were with regard to business travel i interviewed larry a few weeks ago at a conference in

singapore. i was sitting in new york, i think he was somewhere in new york and so neither of us had to get on a 24-hour flight to singapore to do this conference. we were able to do it from the comfort of our respective homes and you are able to do a lot more without getting on that plane and you're able to say yes to more things i don't the ipo road show, most people say that if it does come back it will be some select cities and the rest of it will be conducted through zoom because as this year has been indicative of, it's clearly possible to speak with investors and to have these meetings over zoom and have a successful, not just a successful ipo but to have much greater than expected demand for your ipo by conducting all of your marketing meetings over zoom i think most people believe that all of these types of areas of the business world that previously most people said, oh, no, i need to look in the whites of the eye of the executive and have that conversation in person if there's anything 2020 has proven is the fact that a lot of this stuff can actually be replaced with video conferencing which is why you've seen such a

tremendous rise in zoom for this year i think it's up 450% year to date it's just become, david, this poster child of the new work from home environment. >> and, sara, i can attest to what leslie is saying. she sits at her desk and she conducts these conferences i don't ever get asked -- >> poor david, he has to listen to it all. >> all day long, she's doing conferences and she said, i had no idea they were in singapore but constantly moderating these things from her desk >> and poor david because we do still sit, we're very socially distanced. >> yes, we are but close enough to hear you, at least. >> unfortunately, he has to listen to all my questions for these conferences. >> i think he's just jealous is what it sounds like. >> she gets asked to do everything >> david moderates, he just does it in an office.

>> i am less organized to find an office. >> people are much happier when you're doing it. >> guys, i'll be back actually at headquarters a little bit later on it will be nice to see you >> what do you mean? what when >> i'm coming back >> you're coming back here >> i haven't seen you in almost a year >> my next show. >> i haven't seen you in over a year >> what time are you going to be in the building? maybe i'll stay. >> 12:00 to 1:00 david, stick around to see me. besides zoom, if you, i don't have any conferences lined up. so, i'll be happy to say hello >> you can step in for leslie, if you want to she would be happy to have you sub in >> gladly have you sub in. we should order in lunch in honor of this occasion >> that sounds like a good idea. >> that is true. i just want to mention some of

the other stay-at-home winners, guys besides zoom, it is indicative of this change that we're all talking about. the fact that we're not seeing each other the best performing s&p stock if you take out tesla is etsy up 323%, paypal, invidia. that tells the story of all the changes and the big question is whether that continues first of all off the high valuations and picking which stocks have staying power in terms of the behavioral changes that we're all experiencing as the economies do open up and hopefully this pandemic is in the rear view mirror in a few months >> digtuization is something that is really incredible when we look back on what it will mean look at silverman. has gone so well that stock up only 144% over the last 12 months >> only. >> only. yeah >> had a head start. >> it did.

$12 billion market value that's enough from us. of course, you heard the big news sara eisen returning to headquarters in new jersey i bet that got rick santelli excited to hear that who is always at his post >> absolutely. i know everybody likes working from home and zoom is really cool, but i would rather go downtown and work where i always worked for the last 41 years in the heart of chicago cmhq and look at the ten-year note yields. they continue to hold rather firm that's a month to date chart what i find so interesting is early december we made the high yield close at 0.97. if you zoom back, you can see that is the high close since, well, since mid march. of course, when covid hit and that high yield there was 119. we want to pay close attention to that as we ultimately get closer by the way, today's a twofer, david. two auctions today two year and five year if you look at the complete

package of twos, fives and sevens come out to $176 billion. which means it's 36% larger than this package was just one year ago when twos, fives and sevens were running $113 billion versus the current 176. just gives you an idea how large of deficits we're running and probably going to have to continue to upgrade the size every couple months because, of course, we're writing even more bigger checks. i'm not saying we don't need to. i'm just being the accountant here now, if we consider the ten to two spread most of the heavy lifting has been done by long maturit maturity, 10 and 30 yields on this chart hovering 82.5 basis points which is virtually the steepest we've been in over three years going back to october of 2017. finally, let's concentrate on foreign exchange we know brexit is coming and the

pound is doing rather well and not as well as when the vote occurred in 2016 but the dollar index. this chart goes back eight sessions and the low close at 89.73 and on the 17 and we haven't moved far. if you open the chart up to when the last time we're at that level, well, it was april of 2018 and the dollar index continues to just bump along the bottom and it most likely will be the most active trade moving into 2021 to see if we're going to be able to hold that 90 or not. many think we'll be visiting lower levels david, leslie, sara, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much so, which sectors will do best the first term of a biden administration our cnbc stock quarterly report says discretionary names you can read the full results and investor insight only on cnbc.com we're back in just a moment on "squawk on the street" with the w up triple digits in early trading.

♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work.

see yourself. welcome back to the mirror. and know you're not alone because this. come on jessie one more. is the reflection of an unstoppable community in the mirror.

take a look at shares of lemonade down more than 8%

today. this company the insurance provider is one of the best performing ipos this year up more than 350% above its july ipo price. now trading lower as the company is allowing for a lock of expiration tomorrow which would allow for 44 million additional shares to be traded. those held pby insiders eligible for sale tomorrow on that lockup expiration pretty interesting move there. more "squawk on the street" bac after this

ir. welcome back latest data from master card shows spending grew but not by much joining us now with his insights analyst, oliver chen thank you for joining us showing us u.s. retail sales rose 2.4%. how broad based or narrow was that spending growth >> thanks for having me. seasons greetings. right in line with when we were thinking as far as what we were thinking.

there is a lot of buy fer kaegs this k shaped economy. higher end doing better and lower end looking for deep value. and essentials like grocery and food really outperforming. apparel has been tough digital has been outstanding as we all know. in terms of growth beg up 50% or more >> showing online sales grew at 47.2% versus a year ago. do you think those numbers would have been higher given concerns around shipping delays and christmas. >> the shipping delays were well-known however, they had been a big impact a lot of companies really

encourage shoppers to come out early as october to avoid as much as possible gift cards, curb side pick up has led to getting customers packages in time for christmas as well. >> i'm being loog at some of your top picks for 2021. i see the top of your list is peloton. since march 12, which is the last time i saw david feber, that stock is up 50% why is this still a good bet for even when we do get vaccinated >> peloton has built a really awesome business in terms of integrating community. there is a high score in terms of customers being very satisfied. the term and turnover is quite, quite low. the vertical integration the at-home community has built

an at-home sustainable model the whole health and wellness movement ve important structural trends which will continue as well. >> we like planet fitness as well ulta, those are other ideas we would look at as well as revolve. >> revolve, the clothing store online if you have a view, which a lot of people do, that next year will be a good one for the consumer we are getting another stimulus package where we'll get checks, unclear, $600, maybe $2,000, unemployment checks, the vaccine. which are positioned for a come

back >> we are optimistic ulta, we like a lot revolve has a big selection as well. hopefully department stores and specialty retailers may improve as we look to advisability on vaccination. we'll look at mall-based retailers and others like ulta >> we've talked to you about the demise of the mall for years now. long-term, are you bullish on mall-based retailers >> we are cautious the mall continues to evolve there are more closures.

we'll have to watch that as department stores have more closures, that will be more negative impact. closures will continue to happen a lot of retailers will continue a lot of disruption. more positive on digital models such as far fetch, the real real walmart with curb side pick up target becoming america's easiest place to shop. and costco as well this steam and the caution of

the mall will be rationalized. >> that could be another year we see that transformation. >> where will interest rates be by 2021? higher with the latest for full results. we are seeing record highs for e dow and s&p. we'll be right back.

good monday morning. welcome to the second hour of "sqwawk on the street. carl and morgan have this morning off. sara >> our road map for the hour will start with the stimulus saga settled president trump signing the $900 billion relief bill days after stating he wanted to stop it

>> and astrazeneca saying their covid drug will work with the new covid variant. >> and many locked down in different regions. >> we'll start with the stimulus and president trump signing of that new relief bill steve leaiesman with more >> going into this weekend, there were three types of economic forecasters those with no, some or any faith. finding themselves needing to upgrade their forecast after the president signed that $900 billion relief bill last night goldman sach writing in the biggest difference is the inclusion of bigger stimulus

checks providing for a larger increase in q 1. upping the forecast to 5% from 3% telling me he had not yet put pen to paper for the forecast. he said, and i quote, this was a little larger and sooner than the forecast if we made checks go out soon, we'll extend unemployment benefits this comes too late for the unemployment to 100,000 with several forecasters flat or negative they won't help with december retail positive with the bill that is already done that global economy near term.

it looks like the market needs to catch up along with the forecasters david. >> i have a question, steve. we were debating some risk brother is so good and so strong the reason the markets rallied how long will they stay at the federal rates. they say until 2023. printing 5% gdp numbers. >> sara, i don't like to correct you nationally on television here it's an extra $20 billion. i'm only making light of this to make a point >> it is a lot >> i think that will be the first to go. i think there is possibility in

2021, this is a sort of out there forecast there is some decline or announce taper by the federal reserve. i think under the scenario you layout thank god for high class problems like too much growth if we get there the fed will announce some sort of decline i still think rate increases are a long way off in 2022 at the earliest i think, sara, if you think about it, all the fed is doing right now and below the deflation suggests strong forces out there not just in the u.s. but the global economy >> to that point, do you think the $600 is enough larry summers writing in bloomberg over the weekend that he believes there isn't a good

he can 234078ic argument for $2,000 but do people think the $600 is the right amount to truly stimulate the economy? >> look, i've never been a fan of actual stimulus checks. queue the hate mail. i don't see the upside or the need to send checks to people who are employed i would take every one of those and extend unemployment benefits to people who do not have work also to people with higher incomes that have been left out of the relief. relief for smam businesses relief for what? a short period of time yes, a short period of time. it will be a piece to help there is a lot of optimism

around that vaccine. >> a third stimulus bill we'll do it all over again in 2021 thank you. >> joining us now. thank you for being here markets some what higher on this news today these things will benefit. housing, bitcoin, gold prices. this is one piece of it. you've done a perfect job outlining what is going on as steve was poirchting out. that was $120 billion a month. they'll keep it up this year it might taper if things got really strong. you have so much stimulus.

we think we'll have another $500 billion in february after the inago operation. the vaccinations when they start to really sweep out, that will open the economy back up i figure maybe 15% of the economy. as you need a bridge, this is a good bridge to have. >> do you think we have too much cash in the system we talk about the potential froth in the markets, does that concern you? >> the economy is still 3% or 4%

below the 2019 peak. this would be the worst recession except for the great recession. unemployment is so high. you and i are working. we are lucky parts of the economy are still in very bad shape. then the fed will have to reconsider how long to keep the rates so low that would seam to indicate explosive growth as well what are you expecting next

year it is going to be a boom near for the economy and the stock market as you guys just discussed, $120 for this year. the next step is to pump up the money supply and asset prices. that tends to improve in consumer confidence and spending and there you have it. >> am i going to be sitting here next year remarking on all the likes of things we haven't seen since the late 90s and should i be concerned >> listen, you are always concerned. nothing new on that front.

the situation is now a little bit like the roaring 20s the fed has two mandates as you know. full employment. they talk about it, which is to have the calm financial markets and not create a bubble. i don't think we are in a bubble yet but i can see this road forward getting there. >> it also brings up the credit market yet u.s. companies have borrowed $2.5 trillion in debt. what about when the punch bowl is taken away, then what >> that will be bad. that is a reason why to stimulate the growth and help the zombie companies, as you put

it so far, we talked about the positive side more or less of what's happening there is too much debt, zombie companies, global warming and more that's why we have the debt. >> does it consider you that a lot of investors are shrugging off a lot of those debts 5% see it closing next year at 45,000 do you agree with that bullishness? >> i do.

i think people are more positive than the way they are vesting. i think the people, they see a positive picture but we are not to a your forric state yet if things still going this way, we'll get there. >> all right thank you for joining us >> hopefully he'll join us to tell us when that is >> keeping a close eye on the uk and astrazeneca as the drug maker says its covid-19 candidate is believed to be effective against the new strain

of the virus that strain identified in the uk and a couple of other countries. we'll have more on the vaccine distribution up next don't go anywhere. to all the businesses that helped us

make it through 2020... thank you for going the extra mile... and for the extra pump of caramel.

thank you for the good food... and the good karma. thank you for all the deliveries... especially this one. you've reminded us that no matter what, we can always find a way to bounce forward. so thank you, to our customers and to businesses everywhere, from all of us at comcast business. . if we start vaccinating the general population from april, it is probably going to take several months to get those people vaccinated that would get us to the 70 to 85% group.

probably be the middle to the end of summer, so i hope by the time we get to the fall, we will reach the critical perracentagef people to return to some form of normality. >> that was dr. fauci joining us to talk about the return to some form of normal joining us now, our guests doctor, we'll start with you because california's numbers are worst in the country right now on a per capita basis. 12% positivity double what it was a month ago zero capacity in the icu in some parts of the state, how are you handling it? >> these numbers are alarming.

>> daily cases seem to be plot eeing and putting an intense burden on the hospital systems smaller hospitals are hit with the larger institutions. l.a. is the most pop luis county twice as many as in cook county and six times than in manhattan. it is really a matter of balance. if you had me on the show in 2018, i would have told you our beds and otherwise were full with covid, we balance this by postponing procedures to keep beds open for incoming covid patients but postponing procedures is not

something we want to do. we want to care for owl of those. also a balance across the region managed by public health and/or beganizations that manage hospital systems >> how is it going with distribution >> we administered our first employee on the 6th day of december it was a great day at penn this technology was pioneered at penn we were proud to take that and administer to our employees. we've administered close to 10,000 so far. around 1,000 per day as long as the supply keeps coming, we'll make sure our

co-workers and then the general public get vaccinated. >> we have additional treatments we didn't have back in the spring there was an article about how antibodies are sitting and approved for emergency use can you give us a sense of what is going on right now in regard and why you think there is such hesitation to put them to use? >> i don't understand why one we would hesitant reef rolled out at ucla health and clinics in the prescribed way to those infected with the

virus. that roll out has been smooth and seemingly successful i don't see why there would be hes tennesse hesitating >> you mention the general public anybody and everybody out there? >> i would agree that march, april, bit time we get to the general public what is important, even though we are beginning the vaccination, we are still wearing our mask, practicing staying in from the spaces some of our employees, a spouse has been vaccinated but not other people in the family we

are on the course. i wonder about california. it has strict protocols in place. a lot of businesses are closed there. the state did really well early going. what has changed are they not listening to the mandates? >> that is a great question. they did a great job in the spring as they emerged from the full lockdown as pemt gathered for thanksgiving, certainly people get fatigued with these long mandates i'm concerned if these new

mandates don't fall, then things could get worst. we have to stick with the public health measures. these work they've worked here in los angeles. you have to wear a mask. maintain social distancing and washing of hands all the things they've heard 10,000 times nm a combination of vaccination and natural infection gets us to the place where the virus will end. >> there have been reports of health care workers being hesitant have you seen that and do you have the supply you need for demand at this point >> currently we are receiving plenty of supply we are pleased with the supply

chain we have about 21,000 doses right now. we are running 12.5 hour a day for workers to get it out. that vaccine issue is one we are closely monitoring and we are worried about it we are reaching in deeply to make sure all of our co-workers and to make sure our black and brown co-workers receive the vaccine because of the devastation it has created on the black and brown population in the united states social media, some of our influencers have stepped up. we are launching a public education campaign to make sure everyone whether -- you need to talk to your doctor and make sure you are completely advised.

stay away from dr. google and some of the things you hear from the lay press. we implore everyone to get the vaccine. it's safe and the way to go. >> thank you both for joining us great conversation after the break, is now the right time to add gold to your portfolio? we'll tell you next. stay with us 17 education & technology is a

leading education technology company in china it creates a more efficient, effective, and engaging personalized education experience for teachers, students, and parents. we are so honored to have 17 education & technology join the greatest new economy companies on nasdaq to make the world a better place.

the pandemic has created a gold rush of sorts eric is here to explain. >> that's right. gold prices have soared this year investors are buying up gold coins. reporting the bullion sales are up 700% higher this year than last year. saying the pandemic has led to investors to lead to safer and harder. >> worried about the amount of

spending and currency. i think that is driving a lot of these trends >> bitcoin, sports trading cards even pokemon card have soared. people who own gold through an ira will keep it stored at an off sight location i think gold still has some legs left in the room we saw a huge increase on the announcement of the stimulus bill i think it is likely we'll see ongoing stimulus and that tends to be good for the prices. >> they've ramped up the

purchases at 300,000 first-time buyers these buyers are long-term investors. keeping that money to mine miezing and to physical gold i'll send it over to you >> you should look into the come back of the pokemon card industry and hows that a billion dollar industry since the 90s. after the break, the ceo of a global frayed forwarder and why the rollout is the biggest launch that's next on "sqwawk on the street."

here is your cnbc covid update a growing number of countries are reporting the presence of

the new more infectious of the covid variant. a number of cases have been reported in several nations. tokyo's airport very quiet as japan bans all foreign nationals. five cases in japan have been confirmed among people arriving from the uk. new york state investigating whether a health care provider vaccinated people not designated to go first. in shanghai, police tried to keep a woman's supporters away where she was sentenced to four years in prison for reporting on the true extent of the coronavirus in wuhan

you see the dow turning steadily higher. the dow up 319 and nasdaq up .4% >> president trump signing that stimulus into law. >> after president trump broke from his party he's still demanding that checks be sent up to $2,000 >> i think the president was throwing out a marker for his next political race saying, look, i don't think this is enough money >> the much needed relief. it extends to benefits to 14 million americans and gives

small businesses $284 billion in small business loans $30 billion for vaccine distribution and $82 billion to education and $25 billion to rental assistance and a one-month extension of the cdc eviction moratorium. the house is expected to vote on a bill today to raise that payment. senate majority leader made no mention of it. senate minority leader schumer made a dare saying the house will pass a bill to send out $2,000 checks. will senate republicans reject the answer to that still to come >> thank you >> global freight and logistics company flex port saying the stress is real due to never

ending peak season founder and ceo joins us now >> thank you we help coordinate global rate movements. a big part of our job is helping to solve for chaos and uncertainty. the logistics industry is probably in the middle of our worse year since the invention of the shipping container. we saw first when china shut down, everything fell off a cliff. a lot of us were worried about the survival of our partners now something happened that

nobody predicted, which is imports from asia are up 25% in q 4. volumes are up 25% this is really hard. the pourt of long beach has nevr seen such volume there are 24 ships waiting off shore. there is a huge backlog trying to get merchandize in to consumers who are ordering more than ever before it's amazing to watch and creates a lot of problems for us in the industry. >> covid has put a spotlight on this industry. how do you think the industry comes out ofthis

>> i think there are a lot of quiet heroes out there sacrificing and being brave keeping the lights on. i think people will get the recognition it deserves. u.s. exports have fallen off a cliff. every one of those is a container that needs to come back when those don't happen, there is no empties available in china. right now, we think there is 500,000 less containers than they should be empties. normally about 2/3s of containers are empty today, it is 80% the focus has been needed there on the equipment shortages and

access to capacity shipping rates are about five times higher that's if you can find an empty container. now front and center for brands and they realize the importance of data. knowing where is your stuff, when will it arrive to take that action reroute it and skip the distribution and send it straight to retail >> that's my question. leslie picker here we've seen so much technology step in really quickly this year technology has been supplanted do you think this is the kind of

thing technology can help with and is it benefitting from the fact that a lot of supply chains have been affected and data and various forms of tech can get a better sense can that prevent the issues we've seen this year >> no doubt technology can do a mainli major role they were only on average across multiple customers and driving efficiency when these arrive, they show the dispatch as soon

as it clears customs dispatching and making sure they know which container to get they are always going to be physical limitations they are 30% of volume year over year they can only handle so many container loads. technology can improve things in final ways >> what do you expect and what are you seeing and what worries you the most what are the key obstacles there could be different versions that require different temperature roles. so far all of them are cold

chain. you need frozen capabilities there are so many planes in the world that are grounded. 50% flies in the belly of passenger planes we did 75 flights and just filled the saets and overhead departments that won't work for vaccines most will be produced locally. they don't have the capability to produce these at the same time so that's probably where i'm most concerned for the world >> ryan peterson, good peek

there behind the scenes. >> thank you happy holidays >> speaking of, holiday returns are surging. >> good morning. returns on the day after christmas were 230% higher than the average day in 2020. the new report makes a case that december 26 is you no the busiest number of year for returns. different categories are seeing a shift in buying and returning. underwear and intimates seeing 134% increase from black friday. furniture up 36% >> customers are adjusting to shopping on line and shows work from home is a major factor in the 100% increase of return

times. >> they no longer go to the office and shop on their commute when they go to work saying this year, they've increased return buyers more efficient and faster >> interesting i did not realize they lost that take a look at the results of the stock survey that shows under a biden administration, discretionary, industrial and financials will be the best performing for full results head over to

cnbc.com we'll be right back. ...uh... ...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

wells fargo security says the runoff could be a major moment for the markets why sheees republicans retaining control. more "sqwawk on the street" straight ahead want to sell the best burger in every zip code? add an employee. or ten... then easily and automatically pay your team and file payroll taxes. that means... world domination! or just the west side. run payroll in less than five minutes with intuit quickbooks.

keeping your oysters busihas you swamped. you need to hire. i need indeed indeed you do. the moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base claim your seventy-five-dollar credit when you post your first job at indeed.com/promo welcome back to "sqwawk on the street." all 11 sectors trading in positive territory president trump signing the relief bill. also shining a light on reopening trade. all the major airlines higher by 2% to 4% the best performing stock now is carnival all cruise lines are higher by 4% today as they look to get back to sea sometime in the spring of next year. still trading down by as much as

50% on the year. >> thank you keeping our eyes on shares of alibaba over concerns of the regulatory crack down. the founder of the company continues to clash with the government and the chinese communist party. the buy back around $10 billion. more on alibaba and what is next there and the ant financial 33% owned by alibaba as well on the next hour of squawk alley. we are back on "sqwawk on the street" with more after this

let's get a check on shares of lemonade. now about 15%. this is ahead of the company's lockup expiration which is set for tomorrow which would unleash about 44 million shares into the stok market the lockups can shares with it but keep in mind, lemonade, an online insurance provider is one

of the best performing ipos this year until today, up about 350% since its july debut you can see shares down pretty dramatically now ahead of that lockup expiration. it's also worth noting a lot of the ipos that have performance similar to lemonade will start to see the lockups expire by the first quarter of next year so that's something to keep an eye on, especially on the huge runup this year. the lockup expirations, david, as you know, they can be an event to people tend to sell off on in additional supply to the market it expands the flow a little bit and it makes -- it can put some pressure on. >> yes >> on some of these names as you see with lemonade. >> and to your point, unpredictable. to your point, keeping an eye on

snowflake, of course, palantir. >> palantir. >> i notice is down, leslie. and snowflake, maybe the great est ipo we've seen this year >> and palantir, they did a direct lifting but locked up the vast majority of their shares which is an unique twist on that a lot of people are focused on that stock as its lockup expiration is in the first quarter of 2021, sarah >> guys just looking at the overall markets we zoom higher the dow up 288 points, the dow, s&p and russell. there's very much a vaccine trade going on, seema mentioned the airlines, hotel, cruise lines, they're in the driver's seat tech centers, financials and tech, communication services for a change, it's not a

netflix/faang driven move, it's live entertainment concerts up 4% david, a lot of media stock, disney, viacom, and those are moving higher today. there's definitely a feel of looking ahead. vaccinations going out in the economy and doing things in the economy that we miss and love so much for today's trade >> yeah, exactly or going out to eat, of course that brings us to the next guest, sarah, the coronavirus relief bill finally signed into law by the president giving a lifeline to millions of americans staring at evictions and unemployment the next guest, celebrity chef daniel balude who joins us now chef, give us what it means for your restaurants and as well as your workers >> well, of course, it is a

positive thing, i've heard that the deal passed. i don't think it's going to be able to help restaurant business to reopen fully right away i mean, we're still in the -- now in mine monnine months of p. the ppp was set up for nine weeks. but now 36 weeks and it's going to go on for 52 weeks for sure the relief package will definitely help the staff being furloughed i think it's very important. of this itself, we tried to survive with bringing back as much as possible we were 850, and we're now -- everybody went furlough. we're now about 255. so there's hope, but there's a lot of business to reopen still. and for my colleagues, many of

them don't have the ability to, with the small restaurant business, bar business, they don't have the capability to build a structure and fight a winter in new york city which is the only thing we have is outdoor right now. >> i know. of course as a new yorker who enjoys, relies on going out as one of the key aspects of life there. so many of us worry about how many restaurants will really be around at the end of this. what are you -- i mean, what are you seeing in terms of the winter ahead here? we've got a couple -- at least a couple of hard weather months. as you said, everybody's got to eat outdoors you can keep going? and what are your expectations for restaurants that don't have the wherewithal that you do? >> i know. and i think we're all trying to find solutions such as the takeout. such as we're shipping all over the country, globally or locally. and that platform, of course,

offering an ability for restaurants to make food but the problem is the cost. the cost, at the end, who's making profit or at least who is in the surviving mode is not always the restaurant. and it's the delivery system, what they can high charge for that and it's very hard overall but we really try to maintain creativity and ability for people to reach out to us, at least. and that's why -- i mean,my message is, it don't matter where you live it must be a good restaurant, good chef, good place. making great food to either come and pick up curbside or to have it shipped to you but you've got to support the restaurants, i think you know, restaurant with the capability, a lot of chefs are

also for not for profit as i do myself and new york city certainly with food first but you know, there's definitely a disparity between what the restaurants are going through. and how gangbuster supermarket and liquor stores are doing, you know what i mean >> yeah. >> we used to be sort of another pull of business but now there's no pull. >> understood. chef, we have to keep it short today. we had trouble with your audio which is why we look forward to speaking to you soon obviously wish you the best. hang in there. >> thank you very much >> daniel boulud "squawk alley" starts on the other side of the break.

(music) anncr: give customers access to precisely what they want,