. hi, everybody. welcome to power lunch i'm kelly evans. stocks are rallying today, up nearly 1% across the board the dow is up 219. president donald trump finally signing the stimulus bill and now the push is on for more money. retail sales up this weekend, even as many people didn't set foot in a mall and we have to check on bitcoin. 27,000 and change. can this parabolic run continue? "power lunch" starts right now

all right, thank you very much, kelly. welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. good to be back with you we begin of course with the big story, a stimulus bill finally signed, sealed and money soon to be delivered we've got reporters on every angle. let start with the markets and your money michael san tollsantoli, there'a reason to keep the bulls running until the end. >> take a look at the biggest stocks in the biggest index, of course this being 2020 this means tech, all up close to 3% or more apple, amazon, facebook. it seems to be there's an officious place if you want to turn equity into cash. some is happening in the most obvious names.

you see things like live nation, concerts, mgm, casinos and sl green is commercial real estate, office space relatively similar magnitude moves, especially in the core casino and travel type names they're being traded as a block. arguably not down as much from their highs as they might seen here's on the other side of it some of the recent momentum winners like etsy, roku, they are giving back some of their gains. finally the russell 2000 small cap index, month to date more than doubled off the lows. it is just up slightly right now. so underperforming the major indexes by a significant amount. it's about as overbought technically as it ever gets, kelly. >> michael, we appreciate it mike santoli

>> the inning k on the deal isn dry. let's go to ylan mui for that. >> the president almost department put ink on the paper because he wanted the direct checks to be $2,000 instead of $600 now congress will begin voting today to increase the size of those payments the house has just convened for its last working session of the year and democrats have really latched on to this idea. this is the second time the house will have tried to pass a stand alone bill for $2,000 checks when they tried to do this last week, republicans blocked it yesterday speaker of the house nancy pelosi called every republican vote against this bill a vote to deny the financial hardship that families face and to deny the american people the relief they need. this time the bill is expected to clear the house and there are some gop lawmakers who will support it i'm told that republican leadership is not whipping this

bill, they are mere lily telling senators to vote their conscience it is unclear if and how majority leader mitch mcconnell will allow this issue to come to the floor. back to you. >> i'm curious about that aspect that you mentioned about what republicans do now as they vote on this bim but also how this sets us up for a next round, another bill that might loom once president biden takes office >> yeah, this has been putting republicans in a really tough spot you see howthat is playing out already with the senate runoff campaigns in georgia the democratic candidates, jon ossoff and raphael warnock have been using the $2,000 checks against a cudgel the republicans have been more wishy washy on it. it's a tough spos ft for fiscal

conservatives. that's is the play democrats are hoping to force republicans into this tough spot and take this hard vote. >> appreciate it you said the house is expected to vote around 5 p.m. eastern time brian. >> now to angle three. $ 900 billion think about this, it was more than the entire 2009 stimulus package. when you spread that out over the entire american economy in 2020 and 2021, is it going to be enough to move the needle? we bring in steve liesman pore this si -- for this side of the story hi, steve. >> it does move the needle but there is some debate of whether there be a need to move the needle further goldman sachs upping its first quarter growth contract from 5% to 3% in the commentary.

they said the package is slightly larger and comes earlier than the $7 billion we had previously assumed in our program. last week jpmorgan came one somewhat less than goldman and interestingly as you'll see in a second, from a much lower base it had been forecasting a 1% decline to growth next quarter but now it sees a positive half a point. still pretty darn lackluster jpmorgan sees more robust growth for the second quarter the average job growth at 100,000. i see a bunch of forecasts that are flat or negative for dep december payroll growth. >> i guess the question is what do families and people do with

the money? there were study down after 2009 only about a third of the tax rebates actually got spent people just saved them, robinhood accounts suddenly surged with money because people were playing the market. when will we have an idea about how people are actually using some of this money >> so we'll see it -- we'll get the data in february we have, as you know, brian, some real good high frequency data from jpmorgan about credit card spending. and i think the general molds kind of fit, which is people who are low aerincome, middle incom will spend this right away unemployment benefits right out the door in terms of spending. stimulus checks for people working probably less so and will likely drive up the savings rate that's okay, especially if we don't get another aid bill what we're seeing is in the interim between the expiration of the old data and the enough bill coming along, people have drawn down savings

that's helped them smooth their spending over time >> we'll see what happens. we're just going to call you our estimat estimat estimat estimat estimat estimated prophet. >> kate rogers is looking at e main street. kate >> about $325 billion is set aside for small businesses in this plan, $284 billion of that goes to the paycheck protection programs, loans. small businesses now go back for second draw loans but they have to have seen a 25% decline this revenue, something that advocates said should have been included in the first round of aid to ensure that struggling small businesses actually got the money. the lifeline is crucial as the

situation continues to be dire on main street nfib data show 25% of small businesses say they'll have to close their doors in the next six months if economic conditions doesn't improve 91% from used their entire ppp low, 44% say they'd go back from another one. 50% of small businesses say they see operations continuing for just a year or less in the current environment. generally speaking among small businesses, there's a lot of support for individuals and operators and polling found about 83% of small businesses said they did support this next wave of stimulus we know both those ppp loans and individual checks to household will matter when it comes to spending back over to you >> where are we on the issue of the forgivable?

>> forgiveness is still very much in the early stages you have to use the bulk of this on your payroll. that was a lot of the debate about round one, if people would actually use it for what they were supposed to use it for. forgiveness is still very much in the early stages. how much of these loans end up being fully forgiven here in san francisco we're on our third shutdown here. so it all comes down to your optimism about what your chances are to survive moving forward. >> and maybe where you're located as well, to your point kate rogers has been tracking that for us. brian, over to you >> thank you very much we have got a long way to go here on power lunch. on deck, the santa claus rally keeps going as billions flow into stocks and congress agrees to billions to help american families and workers what will be the themes of 2021

and beyond apple the best performer in the dow. exxon mobil down 40. it would be the worst dow stock if it hadn't gotten kicked out of the dow back in august. but what will be the better bet next year? apple or eonxx some of the answers you may here may just surprise you. that's next on "power lunch. k

welcome back is this deal enough or will investors still demand more, a bigger package in january? kirk hartman and rebecca feltman, welcome to you both rebecca, this was a market that definitely was pricing in another stimulus bill. they left 0.8% on the table. what do you think the appetite or demand is now for more? >> thank you so much for having me we do believe you would see another bill passed after the enough congress takes session. most investors had not anticipated this getting done before the new congress was in session. this was sort of a little pit of a nice surprise and have the individuals check in there with

which a lot of street strategists had not factored in the equation this was a sigh of relief to have the president go ahead and sign this now. >> kirk, do you think there's more to come >> oh, definitely. i think when the biden administration comes in there will definitely be a second stimulus package 95% of americans are hurting and there's clearly a disconnect between wall street and main street i would anticipate that the pressures for additional fiscal stimulus will continue >> just following up on that, kirk, if there's not more stimulus, that would be a head wind to the market and then even sort of the odds of that depend on what the senate might look like and that depend on the runoff, right? >> in some ways. there's a bipartisan consensus for more fiscal stimulus

it might take a little more different form in terms of infrastructure spending or that kind of stimulus to the economy, but clearly we have double-barrel support for the market in terms of monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus i think those pressures are going to continue. i think that will be the story for our early 2021 >> all right i want to ask you both about what we learned from our cnbc quarterly stock report the results are out today, a survey of mover than 100 money managers we asked them what would be the best performing investment of 2021 35% said exxon mobil, 26 said bitcoin, 13% said tesla. rebecca, what do you think >> we had have a little bit of both we're still leaning in on software and services such as tech our indicators have suggested we

have shored up some of the un r underweights in energy materials and infrastructure that kurt mentioned before we have decided to tactically pull ahead into some of those areas but we're still leaning into growth with the bulk of our portfolio strategies >> kirk, what about you guys >> i like saoftware and date ya integrity. i look for the stocks other than fa f faangs and tesla to catch puup i think that is a manifestation of the digital and digital integrity economy. >> rebecca, some of the big market themes here, obviously bitcoin. the entire market is up but small caps are been the hottest sector the last couple of

months i know you play the markets in broad-based etf-like strategies, rebec rebecca. are you a buyer or owner to iwm or some other like instrument >> not yet we've gone into larger infrastructure, construction engineering, a little bit more in the industrials and discretionary space and emerging markets, and with the weaker dollar that seems like the right place to go in that regard >> all right, kirk, i want to ask you this i don't want to go into your personal life. you can bet on golf and pools, everybody gets one of the top ten players or the field following up on your previous answer, if you had to bet one, the top five or ten stocks of the s&p or the other 4490 as a

basket to outperform, what would you bet on sounds likes the latter? >> the hacking was a gift to data security companies and cloud. i would look for companies that can maintain their pricing, ability to control pricing and i think this is the area to be and i think it's just where so much of the country is going and also the payments business. so that's where i would have my five stocks. >> all right thanks for joining us here or "power lunch." happy new year >> we all need a new year. bitcoin's record climb continues. the digital currency/commodity trading up 27,000. it's up $541 today will that winning streak continue and will the money keep piling in? plus, keep your receipts

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all right. welcome, everybody welcome back to "power lunch." let's talk about cryptos and bitcoin, up $580 right now, having hit a new all-time high of 28,000 on sunday. if it can beat november's 40% gain are this will be its best cane since all the way back in 2019 we're joined by mark newton and boris schlossberg. boris, we made the point earlier, huge hedge funds buying in i don't want to call it manipulation because that sounds like something devious going on. how about this, do you believe

bitcoin because of the scarcity can easily be pushed around price-wise >> sure it can be pushed around because there's tremendous amount going on. i find the gold versus bitcoin debate because neither asset is intrinsically worth anything what's going on right now is that bitcoin is much, much more portable than gold and therefore has become the much more popular store value amongst everyone, including, by the way, the institutions, as you said. now we're getting among hedge funds and that bodes well for the asset. can it go to 10,000? absolutely 50,000 absolutely you have to have the mentality it will have a huge amount of volatility as to the ultimate valuation, it's impossible to say one interesting measure, if you look at the tulip mania, at the peak, one tulip was worth

basically about one house. if you use that kind of val valuati valuation, it still has a long way to go before the whole move can exhaust itself there's still a lot of potential but certainly will be massive volatility while we get there. >> mark, let's talk about it i pointed it out at the top of the show that google searches to are bitcoin price today are up 750% in other words, it's red hot among retail when you look at the charts, you got this huge spike, then a collapse when you look at the chart, is there any way to analyze the technical calls on a bitcoin given this rocket ship it's been on the last couple of weeks? >> certainly, brian. hello and happy holidays to everybody. bitcoin just recently broke out to new all-time highs last month. there are ways of utilizing trend based on momentum and

taking a look at sentiment and seasonality to forecast where this can go in my view it is still quite bullish given that it just broke out to new all-time highs i don't think we've seen the same degree of investors enthusiasm like we saw back in 2017 to your point, yes, we have seen internet surges increase, the highest they've been in two years, but they're still nowhere near based on the level we've seen in 2017 i looked at google trend and we're at a level of 28 back in 2017 we were at 100. my thinking is the degree of spacs right now where you can make money at 10, 15, 20% a day, i just don't think investors have quite the appetite for crypto, while the institutions are certainly very much heading in that direction. we've seen all these companies take their cash. intermediate term i think we have a ways to go.

near term my sickcycle composits us peaking out we reversed trend in late december, early january and went lower. i think there will be opportunities for investors to buy dips in crypto i this there will be some opportunity to buy dips into q1 of next year >> okay. yeah, the orange line there, you yourself said you might be looking to sell some and buy back later could be lower prices in the near term. thank you both very much for joining us for more "trading nation," you can head to our web site or follow us on twitter of cour course @trading nation back to you. >> thank you, brian. ahead, 'tis the season for returns. plus how did retailers fare

overall this holiday season? and the port of los angeles facing a major back log still with ships waiting days to gain entry. the port's executive director joins us with those details next if you're an active trader, sitting on the sideline can be difficult, but it's important to resist the temptation to overtrade. in times of high volatility, you may want to consider trading less or reducing the size of your trades. and when things really get crazy, well, sometimes the best trade to make is no trade at all. i'm joanna payne and schwab is the better place for traders to all the businesses that helped us

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welcome back i'm leslie picker. the cdc says adults with underlying health conditions can get a covid vaccine when it becomes available, as long as they don't have a historyallergy

of its ingredients and people with a weak immune system should get it as long as they know it has not been tested on people with those conditions. >> university of florida researchers are summarizing the data for children. while the risk is far lower than it is for adults, some children are died >> and in jerusalem empty streets on the first full day of israel's third nationwide covid shutdown kelly, third shouutdown in isral back over to you >> yeah, it's a lot. just keeps going leslie, thank you very much. appreciate it. let's get a quick check on the markets right now. dow up 325 points at the session

e highs today. the s&p up almost 1% and down over 3,400 oil market is closing up as well i should say oil market is closing. was it up? wti was near 49 earlier. eric chemi has the latest. eric >> that's right, kelly crude prices fading after an early rally despite the indices reaching all new record highs today. a spike in coronavirus cases could weigh heavily going into the new year opec and its allies are getting ready to add another 500 barrels to the supply and will likely result in more near-term pressure going forward >> eric chemi, thank you very much the pandemic drastically changing consumer's holidays

shopping trends. we know that more people are buying on line, of course. it also means you're getting more clothes in that don't fit, especially as a lot of people have added some pounds during the lockdown frank has more on the many, many, many happy returns or unhappy returns for retailers. frank. >> check this out, new stat. the returns on the day after christmas were 230% higher than the average day in 2020. that's according to online firm returnly the report makes the case december 26th is the biggest day for returns, as opposed to being a day in early january and a really dramatic shift in return for example, underwear and intimates seeing 134% increase year over year from black friday and cyber monday sales, furniture up 36% the work from home is a major

factor in the 100% increase in return times because people aren't browsing in store or returning in store while they're on their lunch break or another break while at their office. >> having pushed merchandise out, making folks like me buy things for the first time just to try it out. when you receive these items, it doesn't meet your level of scrutiny, you'll return the utili items. >> it loses 60% of value when you return it and before it get back on the shelf. back over to you guys. >> all right so i'm going to try to ask this in like a way, it's a family-friendly show, frank. you just said that underwear returns are up 134%. i don't know how you can be up more than 100%

anyway the only way to know something doesn't fit presumably is to try it on. maybe you don't like the color or the style i'm assuming a lot of the intimates that are being returned are like boxer shorts or briefs, whatever, that have been tried on -- how does that work where do those go? is that okay that doesn't sound okay. sfli thi >> i think we're doing a measure of presuming and assuming here i don't have all the details of the intimate and underwear being tried on the ceo says they are one of the things you go to the store and you touch, you don't necessarily try it on. now a lot of us are just having these things sent to our hopes and when they show up, people aren't happy that's own a problem if you wear tidy whiteies, then it's not out there. >> i can only speak for me i've never tried on underwear at a store. i never have, i never will

what do you do, go into the dressing room? i'd like to take this out of the package and slip it on it never going to happen i'll try on pants maybe, a shirt. underwear? no way >> that's a stand i'm prod of you for taking >> frank kcolin best story of th day, butty do we have a twitter poll -- never mind back to you, kelly >> i don't even like trying on a bathing suit in the store. online clothing has a 15 percentage point return rate than in-store purchases across retail here with more on the return problem and to reveal some of his predictions for 2021, we welcome in jan niffin. 15 percentage point for on

sound like a huge cost for companies. is it? >> it's an enormous cost for companies. to answer brian's question, where do those underwear parts go they go right in the crash unless they're still sealed in the original packaging the loss on them is even higher than you were just talking about. it's a very big deal, we're all trying to solve the problem and most of the problems, as far as return in apparel is size, size and size you put it on, you ordered it on, it doesn't fit and you send it back. or you order it in three sizes because you're pretty sure one will fit and then you send the other two back that's been a big trend since online purchasing became very common >> are there retailers able to cope with this profit margin pressure better than others or are there business models that can better navigate this and how does that overall fit in with the retailers that you think are

best positioned for 2021 as i presume you think at least some of this cyber boom is going to last >> i think all the cyber boom is going to last. i don't think we're going to get back one market share to brick and mortar in 2021, that's one of my ten predictions for the coming year. who can handle it better the higher your price point, if you're neiman, nordstroms, gucci, you handle it a heck of a lot better than if the item you're selling is $16. the lower down the scale it is, the 45rd erharder it is to lowe return problem and everybody's getting better at it. we're going to perfect some different ways to get fit to be better but right now it is an enormous problem because obviously the onlines are growing so fast that the returns are growing dramatically

it hard it's hard to get the same profitability and a lot of that is because of the return rate. >> the ceo the other day he thinks they're giving too much away you do have a bunch of predictions here you think they're not going to lose a point of mashrket share back to physical next year but you're also bullish on accessories and shoes. you think it will be explosive in april we were all just debating this now that we've gotten over the vaccine euphoria when are we going to stop wearing masks? when do we know we hit herd immunity what if we don't get to that point where we're ready to get out of the house again safely until the fall >> i'm not an immunologist, but i'm a really good retail

psychologist i can tell you i was at garden state plaza the day before christmas eve and the place was a mob scene. there were 200 people in line just at the apple store. so people are willing to go out and shop again and they're going to beling to go out and shop given this bring and the more they'll have all that cabin fever the first spring day in april you're going to look in your closet 57bd say i hate all this stuff, i'm going to start going places and i need clothes and i need shoes and jewelry to go with them. and every woman in america is going to and a whole lot of guys are going to also because they're as fed up as you are standing around in their sweats all day. it human psychology. we always see it after a

suppression of need. we're going to see a huge boom their saving right is high so they'll able to spin we just passed this relief bill with 900 balance in it they're going to spin. >> they will and its going to be the roaring 21s and 22s. everybody is going to be in vegas in september i've been on a couple flights the last two nights, i couldn't even find a parking spot the other day. this is in new jersey and the rest of the country is sort of going on a lot different, we soy if i could advise a college student right now, i would say logistics. there are no warehouses. warehouse and supply change, eel buck to this e-commerce boom, is it not, the physical buildings

>> no, we don't have enough capacity for the delivery and logistics of handling the enormous growth we're getting. remember, 80% of the sales this holiday season still came out of a store. it was only 20% om at the rate of snowing, we've overcapacitied the system for sure if i were talking to that grj watt, i would say high-end, high because that's where the customer is going to be and then they're going to move down to the as operational brands like capri and the other players in that space that are doing things that feel like luxury but aren't quite that price point because that's going to happen starting in april and it going to be a very strong trend and it's going to be better for them than it is for the third party sellers of those brands we're going to see a lot of that >> and i hope you're right about that time frame 2k3w50 to have y

you. >> the difference between the rest of the country and. call it a gi-ant problem for alibaba. plus treasury y50e8d l y50e8d p yields climbing. the dow is up 243. bitcoin uporth 5 me an00 we're back right after this. gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you have medicare and medicaid you may be able to get more healthcare benefits through a humana medicare advantage plan. call the number on your screen now and speak to a licensed humana sales agent to see if you qualify. learn about plans that could give you more healthcare benefits than you have today.

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welcome back it's time for today's power movers first up is alibaba. the share is up after being down almost 8%. it is facing pressure from chinese regulators next microstrategy is up 14% today and more than 150% for the year the company is buying up massive amounts of bitcoin nearly half of its $3.4 billion market cap consists of its crypt yof ho crypto holdings. and yelp is surging more than

13%. barons saying they deserve a positive review of its own they plan for a major rebound when restaurants fully reopen. that's a positive result for yelp up $12. brian? >> rick santelli is at the chicago mercantile exchange with what's happening with bonds. >> good to see you, too. it's been a while. let's start out with the intra day chart, 1:00 eastern, five-year note option ended. rates have dropped from the highest yields, lowest price of the day. it counterintuitive we would see more auctions. look at a month to date. clearly we've been hovering at the highest levels and on a year to date, we said last year at 192, 96, 97's resistance, exact live half of what we said last

year high yield is trading at the best levels since covid, february of this year. why? of course the stimulus package had finally gotten through and intra day index still within striking distance of mid december's 31-month low close. >> thank you, rick still ahead, the port of los angeles is seeing a rebound and even a major backlog we'll explain when "power lunch" returns. folks the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be a deep learning engineer to help make the world a smarter place does this come in blue?

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>> it right now is the busiest time ever for the port of los angeles in its nearly 120-year history. a record imports of goods, microsoftly from china, are flowing in volumes in november up 20% from last year. and ships are anchored two and three deep off the coast waiting for a dock the open up but this business boom is not all good news. it is also straining display chains and turnaround times are growing as well. joining us, the director of the port of los angeles the biggest

container port in the united states for 20 years running. the volume of tonnage that shifted back to the west coast from the east coast has been perhaps nothing short of stunning did you see it coming? do you think that that trend back to where you are as opposed to the east will continue in 2021 >> good afternoon. yes, we did see it coming. we said there would be three swings to the pendulum and we are in the third one of that nature it is all in the change of the american consumer. we are not buying services we are buying goods. >> how is the backlog, from the availability of getting chassises and cranes on the ships, to the truckers, to everything else -- how is the current supply chain at the port functioning? >> it is strained brian. we have got more cargo coming in, 50% more, than we had during the first six months of 2020 we have also seen exports

decline for 23 of the last 25 months, mainly on the heels of trade policy we are scratched from an assess providing standpoint, rail cars, trucks or crassy wheels you mentioned. -- chassis wheels you mentioned. >> this is i am guessing not a good news story for parts of the american economy there is a ton of stuff coming in, most of it from asia, and china specifically but far less american goods going out to be sold on that side of the pacific? >> that's correct. in addition to the trade policy it is the strength of the u.s. dollar that makes our goods a little bit more than they would be otherwise for competing nations in the same product categories and right now, the most startling statistic is that we are shipping back two times the amount of empty boxes that we are american exports across our docks. >> well, listen, i know you are

in sort of a fixed physical environment. it's hard to get things done sometimes. and california, my beloved home state, the darrell jess mond bridge just opened up. that's great news for long beach and i think you as well from an infrastructure perspective, but if you could say to somebody i need this, one thing, is it more truckers is it trains it is more ships, what would you say you need most? >> it is an industrywide and nationwide adoption of digitization being able to have a line of sight as to what is coming at us nationwide, giving ship terse choice of going through whatever gateway they see as opportunistics and fluid for them and being able to move more than 60,000 trucks a day and 100 trains a day with a lot more insight that digitization could give us would be the request i have. >> who would do that and who would pay for that >> we are paying for it now.

we adopted the nation's first and only port community system codeveloped with general electric transportation and want tech we have also brought in a number of partners, but we need more. that includes our neighbor next door as well as others in the supply chain to be able to feed information back and forth, share it, and make this a more fluid situation. the other piece is brian the contain remembers dwelling a lot longer twice as long out on the street awaiting appointments at warehouses and nearly twice as long on our dock tech information needs to speed up and that technology can join us. >> busiest months in the history of that port still a lot of work to do. we appreciate what you are doing and all your work out there. thank you very much, and happy new year. >> happy new year. still ahead, we will take a final check of the markets with the dow up about 230 points

right now. don't forget you can always watch or listen to us live on the go using the cnbc app to never miss a moment of "power lunch. we are back in a couple. has longer lasting vitamin c. plus, herbal and other immune superstars. only from nature's bounty.

(. leaving you where a broader check on the markets the dow up 240 points, under 1%. nasdaq and s&p up exactly 1% >> all sectors but one or two.

energy up, oil is lower. apple and amends gaining 4% nearly the pest in the nasdaq. a lot of people think they are continuing the rush and flush into year end. the real question is going to be what happens come january 1 and beyond good to see you. we will check in with you more tomorrow and maybe learn more about your dressing habits or maybe not that does it for us here on "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen stocks pushing higher to kick off the last week of 2020. record highs for all four major indices inside of the close. let's look at what is driving the action the president finally signed the covid relief bill into law averting a government shutdown and ejecting stimulus into the economy. however case numbers continue to surge in the house and dr. anthony fauci warning it could get worse after the holidays yet, the stock market remains