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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  December 29, 2020 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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session backed off significantly from those new highs but still we are in positive territory we're going to start this hour with some breaking news. this out of the fed and for that let's get to steve liesman steve? >> david, thank you. the federal reserve announcing they have extended the termination date of the landing facility to january 8th. it was supposed to expire december 31st. there was an influx of applications after mnuchin declined to extend the program the lending in the last report by the fed up to $14.5 billion as cnbc reported a couple weeks ago, when the treasury secretary ended that program, it left a lot of applications s which leo
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extension forecast where loans in process will have chance to close. however, it is not open for new business as the treasury secretary as you know has shut it down. >> there was obviously a great deal of consternation among some about that thank you. let's turn our attention to ipos this as qualtrics aims for a 14.4 billion valuation in what would be an ipo in 2021. it's been a big year for debuts. perhaps someone unexpected given the first half of the year was quiet. >> for those of you out there who expected this week to be one that would be quiet on ipo front, qualtrics were acquired by sap two years ago but the ipo
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market is among the hottest we have seen in years a lot of people were seeing as peep reflect on the year maybe looking at what we saw in '99-2000 drawing comparisons and making contrasts as well back in '99-2000 it was about eyeballs and these days these companies do have significant revenue growth at scale but the types of metrics that people are valuing them on if you look at a traditional price to sales basis, things have gotten very, very heated. those valuations are what's going to keep this ipo market going until things start to really slow down that's why we do see a tremendous amount of companies in the pipeline. qualtrics being the latest one >> think about back a year ago when you and i were covering the ipo markets and we saw the likes of uber and lyft go public
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wall street was supposed to be a check on some of these frothy valuations that we see in the private markets but that has reversed this year qualtrics worth 14 billion or more we saw with airbnb and door dash step ups and they climb afterwards so i wonder does this change the c calculus for companies if valuations are stepped up in public markets, there's a different ways that you can go public and we've been talking about that all week. >> we have we will continue to in 2021 as well i know leslie will cover it closely. to your point, it's interesting. for quite some time i wouldn't
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say we were complaining but there were a number of investors said the companies that did go public did not do so during their great growth period because of the ability to raise so much capital in the private markets and so a lot of that key growth phase was actually left to private investors with the advent of capital available, we are seeing more companies that are in their development stage. not anywhere near profitability coming back to the public markets for good or bad. obviously they are more speculative in nature. higher risk given some may never see profitability. at the same time there is prospect for growth if, in fact, if they do succeed >> some of them are pre-revenue. when you compare last year we saw a lot of down rounds in the ipos meaning these companies were valued at higher levels in
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private markets than public markets. that caused a lot of ceos to start thinking how can i take advantage of going public by avoiding some of these down round issues that caused consternation among employees and obviously the prior backers and so forth that's kind of led to a lot of the oicinnovation that we've sen to the ipo process whether through direct listings and twists on that as it pertains to lockups and employees selling and the big complaint this year among industry watchers has been the money left on the table with the big pop. the pendulum swings back and forth. complaints find their way through this discussion no matter what the market looks like i think for the short-term in the first quarter of next year it will continue to be very, very busy. >> something tells me that those complaints about the traditional
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ipo process are not going to go away and will continue to get more options through tweaks we've seen this year we're joined now by jeff and paul good morning thanks for being with us you just heard our conversation. it's really been a blockbuster year for ipos. paul, i know airbnb and doordash ipos raised red flags for you. >> i think what's going to happen going forward is you'll continue to have a flurry of tech orientated ipos but you're going to have to rifle shoot rather than shotgun shoot. as it pertains to those two companies, the valuations are insane on both over time i think airbnb is long they have something special.
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i think doordooash is a short because they don't have anything special. >> what do you think of those two names and what does that mean for other names in the economy that were anticipating next year like an instacart. >> i agree with paul somewhat. there have been some elements of froth. it's been reminiscent of the dotcom bubble era. we'll have to pay attention to it maybe we are more favorable on airbnb less so on doordash for reasons that paul mentioned. we have to pay attention to changing landscape with ipos in terms of regulatory environment and new issue dynamics being talked about there are elements of froth and you have to do due diligence on a lot of these names >> paul, it's interesting that especially with qualtrics spun
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off from sap two years after they acquired it do you think we'll see more of that from those that can benefit from the pandemic? >> there's no doubt that we're digitizing the world in a very quick pace then you have a company like sap, which is really a refugee e from the '80s and '90s and so they're going to try to take advantage of these hot technology ipo markets to spin off anything they can that's cloud related, anything else that's sexy because this is a big opportunity for them because their core business has been growing very slowly for years. >> jethro, as we talk about the reopening, looking ahead to 2021, a lot of people say there's going to be this big
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rotation toward value away from growth do you think that it really is a zero sumgame here? is it because there are certain ta tailwinds for tech that will fade into next year? maybe long growth short value that will unwind itself. is it because people have found other ways to utilize their time than day trading some of these hot names. i'm curious what you expect going into 2021 with this rotation that people are talking about. >> we don't think it necessarily has to be a zero sum game. you could have an environment next year with large cap, megacap growth tech names that could do well particularly reopening of the economy there's not a lot of cash on the sidelines and there's a significant amount of pent up
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demand certainly on the retail side as far as the value names, i mean, in this scenario where you do get this pick up in yield curves and rates are rising, that has been better for the value side of the equation one of the things to sort of look at is what's going to happen with the earnings power of these companies there is a relative gain that can be played. both guys will do well because of rising increase in ad spent but coming from a lower relative earnings base, smaller tech names could see more earnings momentum pop you could get a dynamic where both names start to do well relative to the growth but there will be growth in a lot of the nam names. in terms of value versus growth, if you look at the last ten
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years, it's been a downtrend in favor of growth over value you're going to get large cyclical rotations that we've seen at the end of this year in terms of value outperforming growth if you look at the trend, it's still down from 2017 to date, that trend growth versus value has accelerated. just to get to the top of that downtrending line, value could outperform growth by another 20% before we start to have that argument of whether or not it's going to be a sustainable outbreak of value relative to growth that's something to keep an eye on >> paul, i think mark twain said history never repeats itself but it does often rhyme. i wonder for you does this current period rhyme at all when you look back at the late '90s and speculative excess that took place then >> i'm a good person to ask because i still have lashes on
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my back from running one of the biggest internet funds on the planet back in that era when the internet bubble popped i will tell you this that i do worry particularly about the valuations of some of these companies going from private to public however, back in that era you had some real crap going public. i would say today for the most part particularly since these companies have been private and been incubated for a long period of time by pe firms and venture capital firms that they go public and are overvalued but they are much higher quality companies and so we don't have a repeat of the fiasco of the late '90s, early 2000s. >> you know, i heard you say that you might short -- or you would short doordash, paul you don't short stocks on valuation alone, do you? they could -- remember '98 we thought things looked overvalued
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and they just went straight up from there >> yeah. it's a great point so the way i look at doordash, yes, egregious valuation there are others in the space. they don't have a competitive advantage even though right now they have the highest market share. they have deep pocketed competitors that can come in the other thing i think that happens over time is right now on average they take about a 20% take or commission from the restaurant as other competitors come in there, that is highway robbery that's not a commission. i think that shrinks so you'll see more competition, slower revenue growth, a margin squeeze and here's a company that's not particularly profitable as is in perfect conditions and so i do think it's a recipe for a successful short for all of those reasons >> paul, you do raise questions about the platform model that a lot of folks are asking.
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yesterday i heard it described as a menace economy. you call it highway robbery. thank you so much for being with us this morning. we'll see you soon >> thank you >> you're looking at pictures of vice president-elect kamala harris receiving the covid vaccine just moments ago what can investors expect in 2021 we'll ask thomas pery etffafter the break. stay with us why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪
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let's get over to bob pisani alongside a special guest. take it away, bob. >> thank you i'm joined by thomas peterffy, foundman and chairman of interactive brokers. always a pleasure to see you you're in florida, right >> i am in palm beach. it's wonderful to see you. >> i hear there's a prominent individual moving in down the street from you. how is that working out for everyone in the neighborhood >> that's troublesome because traffic patterns will have to change it's not so wonderful for us whatever happens, happens. >> you'll get used to it
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you're an adapter. let me ask you about the extraordinary year you've had and extraordinary year in trading. it is remarkable to see trading volumes this year, equity follows up 50%, options volume way up your own company here i see total accounts up 50%. customer equity up 49% absolutely remarkable. record trading in november what do you attribute this to and do you think this will continue into 2021 >> well, it's partly due to the pandemic but it is also due to the fact that people are waking up to the bull market and nobody wants to be left behind so i think that's substantially the reason whether it will go on like this, i doubt that i certainly think that it is not going back to the levels of 2018
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or '19 it's going to remain elevated unless, of course, if the stock market collapses >> i want to ask you about the explosion in options trading because you are an expert in this you started out in option trading decades ago. we've seen an increase a lot of it is out of the money call option trading. most of the time we seem to be attributing this to the increase in retail traders particular robin hood are you seeing this in your own operations what do you attribute it to and how do you feel about robin hood and the rise of the retail trader in 2021 >> fantastically unusual thing happened among our customers
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about a week ago our customers traditionally long the market a week ago it has changed. so our customers tend to be on the selling side of options. there is such demand for these money options that our customers tend to become sellers so they carry a long position in stocks but they override in ratios four to one or five to one against the stock. and it's usually about tesla and amazon and apple that's where most of the action seems to be. so they are long these options and the broker customers are short these options. it's a very interesting situation. it has never happened in our
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history that our customers as a whole short the market but as of yesterday that is the case >> thomas, this is leslie. i think that's a remarkable stat i'm curious if you think that's a directional play there or do you think that's a hedge on what's been just a huge run up in some of those names that you've mentioned that customers are looking for some way to maybe protect against their downside there >> so they have huge locked in gains in the stocks. they don't want to liquidate their stocks because they don't want to realize their gains and pay taxes. so they have to hedge themselves somehow and so they are buying goods. that's what we see now the other fascinating thing is that we hear the news that the outstanding margin that is $726
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billion and i find it frustrating that our share of that is only about 5% even though our margin rates are between 0.7 and 1.59% and all of the other brokers charge from 2.5% all of the way up to 9% or 10% so i do not understand -- i'm extremely frustrated we don't get more of the margin loans. the way i got this interview was that i sent out this picture i don't know if you can see. here i am being very frustrated. so we spent a lot of money
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advertising on cnbc and other channels and newspapers advertising our margin rates and most people do not pay any attention to these rates and i assume many of them don't even know what their brokers are charging so i'm a very, very frustrated person. >> so the implication, thomas, is the other people are charging too much and you're charging a lot less i think we got that point. i want to just move on and ask you about how you feel about stimulus programs. right now the senate is debating whether they should put $2,000 on for individuals or $600 a big debate going on. how do you feel about stimulus and about the debt the u.s. is taking on and in 2012 you very prominently came out and warned against creeping socialism in the united states. do you really think that's still actually an issue given what's been going on in the last year and debates we're having >> of course it's an issue i mean, you know, in various
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polls you see that people under 35 are looking -- the majority of them is looking favorably on socialism. this is astounding to me that wasn't the case in 2012, but i was beginning to feel that this is about to happen. unfortunately it's happening now the other issue about the stimulus is the stimulus is certainly needed but the problem is that i don't see how the fed is ever going to take this money back so i'm worried about the dollar becoming worthless or certainly worth less than it is worth today and on the long run that should obviously drive up the stock market because when the money is becoming worth less, the stocks are becoming worth
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more so the stock market, i expect, is going to continue to rise in the next two or three years to come. but not compared to maybe gold or bit coin or other measures of value it is going to not go up but in terms of dollars it will increase >> going to have to leave it there. thomas peterffy, appreciate your comments as always and your many phone calls over the years has been helpful and don't worry, the traffic will improve thanks very much for joining us. >> thank you, bob and thomas let's look at the best performing stocks for the s&p for this year 2020 tesla up 700% as we just have a few more trading days left of the year followed by etsy.
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l. brands perhaps the rpsisuring name on that list. stay with us new projects means new project managers.
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shares of alibaba rebounding today after a difficult period for the giant online retailer and so many other things in china. there has been a campaign to stop jack from criticizing the government or regulatory agencies and, well, china made it clear that alibaba are in the crosshairs in terms of action involving their business on a regulatory front as you see, shares are rebounding though far off the highs it saw a couple months ago
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. i'm morgan brennan here's your cnbc update at this hour in california, the bnp tennis tournament has been postponed.
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it's called the sport's fifth major was scheduled to be played in march for the first time in months, one michigan hospital is allowing visitors for covid-19 patients protective gear is required. visits are expected to continue throughout the week. in croatia, rescuers pulled a man from a collapsed building that was destroyed by a magnitude 6.3 earthquake nor authorities say two people have died and 20 people hospitalized. and fashion designer and licensing pioneer pierre cardin has died he put his name on hundreds of products he was 98. and that is our cnbc news update at this hour i'll send it back to my "squawk on the street" partner in crime david faber. david? >> thank you, morgan good to see you again. it's been so long. >> so long >> continued pressure on big tech the federal trade commission
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issuing orders denying social media on data for how they collect personal information of their users. joining us for more is director of consumer protection andrew smith. tell us more about this order and what your expectations are in terms of what you'll learn. >> thank you, david, for having me on the program. so we do these orders to file special reports pretty frequently for example, every year we issue an order like this to tobacco companies to get information about their advertising span here what we're doing is issuing this order to relatively diverse array of companies that cover a lot of ground. companies like youtube and facebook and i think that we're trying to gather information about how these companies collect, use, share data, the kinds of choices they offer, how do they determine which ads to
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serve up how do they determine which content to serve up. how do they use data analytics and apply those to personal information and measure, promote, research user engagement and how do these practices affect kids and teenagers. >> i think there are many people who would be interested in learning many of those things you just mentioned what has the response been like in the past given you've issued orders in some ways that are similar? do the companies typically cooperate? is there a transparency or lack thereof that allows many of us to be in the dark on exactly what is truly being collected? >> you know, this is a process where companies are required to respond. if they don't, then we go to court and we get a court order requiring them to respond. if they don't again, then they're in contempt of that order. this is authority the commission
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has had for more than 100 years. and we take these orders seriously. so we do expect full compliance. we expect prompt compliance. i anticipate -- there's a lot of information that we're asking for. i anticipate that it will take time for the companies to gather this information, but to give you an example of the timing on this in the past, in 2012 we did orders like this to a series of data brokers and then subsequently in 2014 we issued a report on that this is a process that might take a couple of years to play out and there might be a number of different deliverables that result from this information gathering. >> andrew, let's talk about those deliverables past ftc privacy settlements have been criticized as being toothless and fines in the billions of dollars for facebook and google they've been absorbed by these companies. what have you learned from those settlements and what would you do differently, if anything,
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next time around would you try toi implement mor structural changes at these companies? >> i don't agree the orders we obtained are toothless the monetary remedy are part of the order but not the only teeth. in some ways it's the injunction we obtain against the company that's more meaningful in a case like the order we got against youtube or order against too facebook, we have detailed requirements placed on the company and board of directors for changes in the way that the company fund ymamentally does business with facebook, any change to the service, they have to conduct a privacy impact assessment and get signoff from executives who are high up in the company so this order obviously is still playing out, but what we understand from public information that facebook has made available is that thisis significant undertaking for the
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company. and these privacy impact assessments affect the way the company does business and really do make them put privacy on the top of the list of priorities when developing new services for consumers. >> what evidence are you seeing of these changes we're still here and talking about investigations and potential penalties on privacy issues so i'm just curious if those pass settlements weren't toothless what changes have you seen so far? >> well, the settlements that i'm talking about, the most recent settlement with facebook is only a year, year and a half old at this point, and what we're seeing is for better or worse, greatly increased compliance spend by the company, the company staffing up in a lot of different areas with compliance professionals and lawyers. the company putting all of its
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new services through these privacy impact assessments and i think that it has been significant. now, look, you know, facebook is obviously the subject of a lot of scrutiny and will continue to be and it is -- and the services that it offers will continue to be scrutinized but we feel the order that we have obtained and our orders that we've obtained against other companies are forcing them to follow very specific steps to make sure consumer rights are fully protected. >> andrew, do you believe that legislation that would allow for a federal privacy law and data security law in this country is necessary in order to go further to patrol these companies? with covid specifically in 2020, there's even more data exhaust because people spend so much more time online than they would previously doing things they otherwise would have done in person you know, do you think that will
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get the attention of lawmakers to actually enact federal privacy legislation in this country. >> so in terms of the prospect for privacy legislation, that's not my department to predict what congress may or may not do. i will tell you that our commission and all five commissioners have testified in favor of data security legislation that would provide the federal trade commission with authority to assess civil penalties for data security failures as well as provide the federal trade commission with rule making authority to fill in any blanks in the law and prescribe specific data security requirements the ftc commissioners also have testified in favor of privacy legislation. again, with civil penalty authority and rule making. what we mean by privacy legislation would be requirements about how companies collect, use, share data,
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choices they're required to offer to consumers, and our commissioners believe that that could be very helpful but that it has to be congress that makes those tough policy cuts with respect to consumer choice and the like >> andrew, thank you for joining us appreciate it. >> thank you for having me in the meantime, we're keeping our eyes on shares of boeing 737 max back in service for the first time in more than 20 months, the stock up nearly 50% in just the past two months of trading. we're back in a memont - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university,
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welcome back telehealth sees a steep increase in use during the pandemic joining us to discuss, co-founder of sounder mind, one of these digital behavioral marketplaces, can you explain to us exactly what sounder mind does and how it operates your mission was to bring down the cost of therapy. how much does a typical session cost and how have you seen this business perform during the pandemic >> thanks for having me on it's really great. sounder mine is focused on enabling access for individuals with commercial insurance and using our matching system to ensure that their matched to the right therapist based on their clinical needs we actually offer a hybrid approach that is not only video
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sessions we offer in-person care, video care and chat based therapy and the cost really varies based on the market that you're operating in we're contracted with the major insurance plans. costs vary based on your plan. >> how does it change versus the traditional way of seeking out therapy? how are you able to bring down the cost >> so one of the key problems in this ciindustry is many therapit haven't been able to offer commercial insurance to their clients and so what we're aiming to do is to really let individuals who have good, quality health insurance from their employer or other means to enable that individual to access care from the right provider for them >> well, what about working with companies, you know, many of them looking for ways to help address their employees mental
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health is there an opportunity for sondermind to bring in more customers? >> we're working with self-insured companies already we can let the employee and employer choose if they want to carve out the benefit for the rest of their health benefits they offer for employees or embedded as a standard of care >> it's been hot in terms of venture capital. what do you think about becoming a public company or being absorbed by a larger company you just closed a series b as we've been talking about throughout the show, the ipo market is hot right now. we see more companies go earlier. it would raise the profile, right? >> absolutely. so we have always maintained that our goal is to increase access and clinical outcomes for care in this space
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at this point both the pandemic and our overall growth trajectory has set us on a path that we believe we can become one, if not the premiere outpatient technology and in-person behavioral care companies in the well, it may or may not come too late but it's definitely going to help. one of the things that has been really pressing has been the
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effect on mental health has had on organizations and on the individual and on staociety as hole how can we integrate mental health into the ecosystem of our health care benefit and drive to better outcomes, for individuals for physical and mental health, which leads to better population health and cost containment across the whole system. >> mark, what about people without health insurance there have been about 5 million people that have dropped off of their employer-sponsored plan during the pandemic as they lost their jobs and have struggled to find new ones. do you have services for them as well and is the cost cheaper, regardless of whether you have insurance or not >> so our cost is definitely cheap erp than ter than the typ
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therapist in private practice. it depends where you're operating from the costs in st. louis is cheaper than in new york city. for those who doesn't have individual insurance from their insurer, we're taking certain government plans and taking plans from the v.a there thank you for ul that you do, mark and helping us highlight what is a critical issue in 2020. we appreciate you being here >> thank you for having me on. >> a quick programming note as we head to break tonight do not miss the premiere of cnbc's new primetime series, it's called "streets of dreams" and it features marcus lemonis as he travels the country, pulling back the curtain on the most iconic streets in u.s. history from the diamond district in manhattan to nashville's music row. that's tonight at 10 p.m.
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eastern. don't miss it. back in a minute want to sell the best burger in every zip code?
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or ten... then easily and automatically pay your team and file payroll taxes. that means... world domination! or just the west side. run payroll in less than five minutes with intuit quickbooks. welcome back retail traders are finding value in one childhood favorite, sports trading cards eric chemi has that for us
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>> for jimmy mahan, the pandemic has provided an unexpected boost to his lexington, kentucky small business. >> they can't go to the game they can't do anything but watch it on it v and now in the pandemic, it just created a focus on it >> former card collectors are getting back into the game, dusting off their old sets >> people are definitely trading cards as an asset. the big difference between trading cards and a lot of commodities is the fact that there's a finite amount of surprise >> after years of decline, people are changing the way they price cards. trading cards are become an asset class that can be worth big money. >> if you took the top hundred or so cards, 500 in trading cards, they have beat the s&p 500 by 153% over a decade.
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that's not a small sample size >> just two weeks ago golden auctions sold a steph curry rookie card for $611,000 a giannis card sold for a record 1.8 million. many collectors are putting across portfolio cards as low as $100 and well into the thousands. they'll make history this year >> they just increase in value over time, particularly if that player performs on the court or on the field, or is in a championship, for example, those cards continue to increase in value. >> some sports card investors are doing their work digitally where cards are stored at a remote location. it's similar to stock trading where you don't ever receive physically that stock certificate. dierdre, i'll send it over to
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you. >> that really brings me back to my childhood where my older brother would have boxes and boxes of these sports cards. if only we knew where they were now. >> david and leslie, seeing a new report in the journal a few moments ago saying china may be looking to shrink jack ma's empire, consists of alibaba and alibaba affiliate and group. this would be significant because we thought perhaps this could just be a slap on the ris to ma to set an example but this would be taking it further and suggesting that some of these business, at least parts of them, would have to be handed over to beijing, something in the past that jack ma has vowed not to do. >> it's a tightrope for them i talked a bit about it earlier on the program as well it's been a tightrope for mr. ma as well. he is by far the most influence and well-known business figure
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in the country, having sat down with him any number of times for interviews, even during the course of those interviews it's always interesting in terms of when the conversation returned to the communist party and to the government and regulators but he's been somewhat outspoken at least for a chinese businessman back in 2015, he had some criticism, the meeting that he had. i talked about this yesterday with donald trump, when trump was taking office four years ago. got the attention of the chinese and then of course most significantly his comments right before the ipo where he criticized regulators certainly brought him into the crosshairs again for the man who runs china and that has resulted in a number of regulatory efforts that certainly seem geared towards diminishing his power. >> i would say it's also -- >> he's not a regular billionaire. he's a people's billionaire, leslie so he's gotten away with a lot
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of these comments in the past but that may be coming to an end. >> i would also note that it's not just his empire. it has a bunch of other investors, big u.s. investors that are also looking at being affected by any intervention from the government there, david. >> yup and something we'll be keeping a close eye on in the days and weeks ahead. that does us for us on "squawk alley. let's get over to the judge. >> thanks. the road ahead for your money as 2020 coming to a close which stocks and sectors will work best in the year ahead? we will debate and discuss that with our investment committee, stephanie link, tiffany mcgee, michael farr, john najarian and we kick it off as we always do, a look at the trade. another record

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