>> finish it up with sports and joe's early analogy, under armour it's going higher, scott. >> okay. well, it looks like joe froze. that's unfortunate the happy new year, everybody. a happy and health he. see you on the other side. that does it for us. thanks for watching. "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott, and welcome to "the exchange." everybody. i'm kelly evans. evaluation revolt. when facebook and honeywell trade at the same forward multiple is the market getting out of whack we'll look at whether stocks are too pricey and if so which ones. plus, individual investors have jumped head first into the markets this year and proved just how powerful a force they can be we'll look at their influence and who benefits most from it, and a major player warns on oil prices dan jergen says crude is trapped in virus alley and could stay there next year.

he joins us to explain let's start with the markets this hour. bob pisani has the very latest for us hi, bob? >> hello, kelly. essentially this is the market that will not give up. concerns about vaccine, concerns about stimulus, doesn't seem to bother the markets at all. we're sitting essentially at new highs. let's not quibble at the tenths of percentage points, the dow, s&p, nasdaq have had a good month, sitting near record highs here as it has happened for the last six months, the big-market stories are in the thematic tech etfs investors just keep buying and loving solar stocks, anything related to overall clean energy, anything for 3-d printing, anything for online retain, social media, anything like that in these etfs. every day they go up and every day there is new creations of etfs involved in that, and that's the big story in the second half of the year. at the same time, i see some cracks in the market kelly mentioned an evaluation

revolt recently the ipos have been performing a little bit poorly most newer ones have been up, but the market loves dealing with some of these names like accolade and palantir, crowdstrike, many down mid single digits today, some up fractionally are i call them cloud-based tech companies. they have very high valuations investors are taking a little bit of money off the table towards the close of the year but elsewhere the market is pricey overall the mega cap names, i know apple is up enormously this year, but it's trading at 40 times forward earnings other than a month or two ago it hasn't been at that level, that pricey for years and neither has microsoft or alphabet. facebook, a regular bargain at 26 times earnings and, guys, i would say the same thing for a number of industrials, like caterpillar, got a big upgrade that's trading in the mid-20 honeywell is trading at 26 times forward earnings i've been covering honeywell for 20 years

i don't ever remember an industrial at 26 times forward earnings that's really pricey, so the market is expecting an enormous earnings boost in the second half of 2021 it better deliver it because that's certainly what everybody is expecting right now in terms of the prices. guys, back to you. >> bob, it's a great point that you make there, so it's -- facebook in 26 as a forward multiple looks not that stretched but honeywell, i don't know if it's unprecedented. >> that's right. >> but what does it tell you when the industrials are already trading with the same enthusiasm as some of the growthiest parts of the market? >> it tells you that the market is anticipating a massive reopening starting in the second quarter, and tomorrow, kelly, we can talk a little bit more about exactly what the earnings expectations, are but i can tell you, you look starting in the second quarter, they are seeing earnings go significantly higher, including for these industrials, so you can call them reopening plays and they

are. they are cyclicals, but they are really, really stretched on an historic basis the bulls will say they are stretched, bob, there's good reason they will be stretched because we'll have one hell of a reopening beginning in the second quarter okay maybe we will, but it's pretty priced in right now. that's my point about this, before everybody guess excited about adding more to the prize, just look at the history a little bit >> yeah. look at what it's already reflecting bob, thank you so much we appreciate it bob pisani there the dollar drawing some major attention there as it drops below 90 on the dollar index to its lowest levels since 2018 and multi-year lows are the next level traders alsoching with a for more let's bring in rick santelli any clear catalyst today, rick >> you know, i think the clear catalyst has been ongoing. when you're the reserve currency, kelly, you create a whole litany of issues that aren't necessarily as large or loom as negative for other currencies, and, of course, the major issue i'm talking about is

spending you know, it really is wrong just to say deficits spending current into deficits the issue now is every city, every state, every country and economy on the planet spending much more than they are taking in and that really dents the reserve currency, and, yes, we're hovering at levels we haven't seen since the spring of 2018 it isn't just the dollar index you are in extremes on the euro versus dollar, two and a half years and pound versus dollar, uan, the chinese currency with two and a half years and japanese yen about ten months because of that same issue it's going to get much worse potentially because ultimately these deficits in the spending probably aren't going to go away quickly, if you go to the white board, this goes back to 1958 on the dollar index you can see you got a great buy in 2014 and here's the line at 90 that you talked about and the difference here to the next line is huge. we're talking about potentially going to 58 as long as we stay

on a closing basis under 90. >> you know, rick. so i know i asked you about catalyst and like you said this has been an ongoing thing as it relates to deficit and so forth because we did get this trade deficit and stuff this morning and it was not pretty. it's really interesting. consumer imports, consumer goods imports run 17% year on year which speaks to the strengths and the stimulus checks and that sort thing exports are down and our trade gap is like 20 billion wider than it was this time last year so i can't help think but that must be putting downward pressure on the dollar. >> oh, absolutely, because we're just looking at the issue from a different vantage point. what you're describing is also highly covid-related and the fact of the matter is that we can't get the export economy cooking the way we would like it, to but the demand is still there for the largest economy, and china's ben figure on the export side, so you're going to see a lot of action, especially between the chinese currency and the dollar, but, yes, trade will

normalize much more as we get through covid, but it has been one of the big issues that has affected the currency, you're absolutely correct kelly? >> definitely gotten works a lot worse this year. we'll see if this is the low point or not rick, thank you very much, sir rick santelli. meantime growth stocks are having their best year since 1979 relative to value the growth etf, the ivw, is up more than 30% thanks to all the high-flying tech and pandemic place. in the past three months value is out performing growth and my next guests say get on the value train for 2021 welcome in the senior portfolio managemented a essex asset management and jeff katz, asset manager, joins us as well. nancy, i'll start with you is it value companies or value writ large which is a tricky play from a sector point of

view i mean, where specifically would you point people >> we think it's both specific companies as well as certain segments of the market that have been neglected, not only over this past pandemic year but real over the last ten years as we've seen a significant outperformance of highly visible secular growth stories over perhaps less well-recognized, well less visible areas that can be classified as other value stocks or perhaps as growth stocks that are selling at very inexpensive valuations those would be some of the building block companies in areas like hardware in the technology area, areas like suppliers into many of the industrials. some of the areas in consumer discretionaries and some of the financials, even some of the areas in health care like on the services and on the diagnostics and on the -- on the equipment side that have not been exploited as the more open-ended, more clearly recognized names in biotechs, especially pharmaias, soft way,

internet, et cetera. >> i know a lot of your favorites are in the small-cap space. that's a good place for people to look for themes and values. david, what about you, also kind of thinking that growth just can't continue this performance into 2021? >> bloomberg puts out an interesting chart. they look at growth versus value, and right now we're about four standard deviations overvalued to the growth side so statistically that happens less than .1% of the time so we think it's going to reverse. the other thing that's happens is a lot of value areas of the market, a lot of value sectors we think the stars are aligning for them to do a lot better. you have the covid vaccine that's going to make the economy return to normalcy is. you have an improving economy. the regulatory and political environment we think is very good and interestingly a lot of value stocks did very well this year in terms of businesses. the stocks have been left, you know, in the lurch financials are a great exam. we think that financials are going to do very well this year.

their loan%. are good the yield curve is steepening. janet yellen as the head of the treasury is a net positive so we think all of those things are good, yet it's the cheapest area of the market by a lot we think the dividends are safe. we'll start to grow again next year and we think people will seek those out so we expect a lot of money to flow in, and you want to get in there early. >> yeah, so u.s. bank, pinnacle west, gilad and the health care front, verizon and coca-cola a lot of investors listening, nancy. they have a hard time getting excited about those ims in a we heard bob pisani at the top of the hour saying monohoneywell is trading at a multiple of 26 which is pretty high for honeywell. are we sure, that a, value is such a bargain and, b, that this is the right place for people to go >> so, again, we think that it is that combination of companies with good growth prospects that are selling at inexpensive valuations and actually despite move in the markets this year,

there are many companies that fit that qualification as somebody today earlier mentioned the growth in the market has been really concentrated in a handful of companies and a handful of areas while the vast majority of stocks have either gone up less than the market and some have each not gone up at all so we do believe you can find companies that are selling at 15, 16, 17, 18 times earnings with good growth prospects the companies themselves may not look that section on the surface, but if you dig down underneath and you can find out that they are participating in many of the same very exciting growth areas like sustainability, 5g, autonomous driving, et cetera, that some of the more visible names are also participating in, that that is the opportunity where investors can really find great opportunities to buy companies at reasonable prices, and this is particularly true as you go down into the smaller cap

segments of the market i would note that this is the fourth time since the 1930s that we've talked about the debt to value, and it's even more dramatic this time than it's been in most of those cases. we think that the past could be prologue and that we'll see an opportunity for companies with good growth prospects where the growth prospects are not yet fully discounted in the prices of the stocks to benefit from increased investor attention >> i was just going to say my favorite thematic play of yours is millenials adulting, speaking from personal experience, but, david, before we go, i want to give you also a chance to respond to the investors who might say your picks are too boring for me, you know. how do i know. how do i know that these are companies that are actually going to perform well and not be value traps and your enthusiasm for the financials in particular comes to mind. you know, we've heard people make the case time and again in recent years really as to why they will benefit from, you know, the alignment of the

stars. they are okay, but, you know, why do you think 2021 is the year they could really break out? >> we think they are better than okay they came to succession in great form the loan portfolios have held um we think they are overcapitalized and the fed two weeks ago said they could bye-bye stocks and the regular industry environment is good yet, their valuations are at so, 11, 12 times earnings and you made the case that stocks are 20 times earnings gilad is a biotech company with a really good cancer portfolio makes a boat load of money and pace over a 4.5% distribution yield. "the wall street journal" talked about possible consolidation in the industry, could be a takeover candidate it's at a great price. pinnacle west is a dull company, but dull paying at 4.5% dividend is going to be very attractive when you get zero in a money market we think it's very, very timely and we think dividend yields will be a really good place to

be in the upcoming year as well. >> just giving you a hard time, but boring is beautiful sometimes, as they say we'll see if that transition is upon us. dave katz and nines prial, thanks for having you both on. >> happy new year. coming up here -- >> happy new year to you, too. speaking of individual investors, they bought into the market in 2020 like never before why we could see that last into next year and if so who benefits we'll tell you about that. plus, it was a wild year for energy stocks as investors fled them in the depths of the pandemic, but energy is now mounting a comeback, up 26% in three months are investors getting ahead of themselves we'll ask industry expert dan jurgen we're back in a couple save hundreds on your wireless bill

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get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. nationwide 5g is now included. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. welcome back the online brokerage industry is closing the year on a high note after individual investors flooded the market opening at least so million new brokerage accounts in 2020 that's a record. now, it was one thing in the depths of the pandemic when there were no sports to wet on and little else to do, but it turns out, look at this chart, customers are logging into their accounts more now than they were back in those days for more on the perfect storm here for retail trading i'm joined by devon ryan, senior research analyst at jmp

securities great to have you. i'm really surprised that interest is increasing what are you making of interest? >> hey, kelly, thanks for having me on. really, just one of those kind of perfect storms as you just mentioned this year where, you know, late last year we moved to zero commission rates, and i think that removes some of the remaining friction in trading and then, you know, the volatility that started to begin the pandemic drove people into the market and then it, you know, kind of the unique conditions of work from home everyone spending more time online that really drove in the record level of new accounts. i think people spend a lot of time educating themselves so we're exciting 2020 with well over 10 million new customers into the industry, many young and first time customers and -- and that drives a lot of potential for your future activity it. i think the baseline of activity in trading is quite a bit higher today than it was at the same time last year because you do have such great growth over the past year under new measures.

>> yeah. i mean, from a top level will. i speak with the strategist brian reynolds about this all the time we all wonder what had would happen with the absence of corporate buybacks in the stock market and retail investors have largely picked up the slack from that which is absolutely amazing, and you're suggesting it could condition from where you sit, who are the players and, you know, sort of tell our audience who you think investment wise benefits the most from this and as robin hood potentially prepares to go public. >> sure. there's so many interesting themes right now you had a huge way of consolidation rights schwab just finished the acquisition of ameritrade and now they will be focused on integrating that company but that's 30 million account firm at this point so just tremendous platform, and i think they are going to drive a lot of evolution from here in the industry because it is so powerful there's a lot of earnings that will come from that deal so schwab would be one to watch here morgan stanley just acquired

e-trade so, you know, i think that's pushing them hard on kind of the digital strategy and moving a little bit downstream in terms of the size of customers so morgan stanley would be another firm i think that will benefit from that and then you mentioned, you know, there's a number of mobile first platforms, whether it's the robin hoods or e-toro, these platforms that have seen tremendous growth over the past year are really gaining market share of the industry and really i think the key thing here it's not just about trading many of these firms are going to be adding new tools and capabilities that connect customers to other parts of financial services, so i think the expectation is going to be that they want to going to their app and have access to banking product and other asset management products. >> well, that kind of is my next question we just showed the average trades per day on robinhood versus some of the other platforms and robinhood appears to be wing and you should take a

view on the rest of the view if you want investment exposure why should i bet on the incumbents whose app usage and technology appears to be running behind robinhood which arguably is now the dominant kind of new player in the industry why shouldn't i just save my capital for that ipo >> well, i think all these platforms have a little bit of a different spin to them schwab has tremendous scale, as i just mentioned, and ameritrade really for active traders is one of the loading platforms, and so combining schwab's kind of advice-based almost platform where they have a lot of other capabilities beyond just trading it and ameritrade where they really have, you know, tremendous platform for active traders, i think it's a really strong combination, not to mention roughly half of the accounts of those firms, schwab and ameritrade are connected to the raa customers that these firms provide.

>> appreciate, it sir. dropped out there. we're showing, of course, shares of charles schwab which he was just mentioning with its huge surge in new accounts this year. they are in the only one thanks for your time appreciate it come up here on "the exchange," denim and dollars, two themes behind the stock movers including this stock hitting had an all-time high plus the live entertainment industry finally getting a lifeline with the latest stimulus bill. is it enough when you look at empty theaters like that we'll check back in with one struggling concert venue ahead

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eligible, help you enroll over the phone. call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana, a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "the exchange." let's get a check on the markets half past the hour dow up 190 at the highs. half a percent gain for the industrials leading the way with the s&p and nasdaq both up about a third of a percent all but two sectors are positive materials and energy up more than 1% today. communications services down about half a percent. and here are some of the individual stories that we're watching chefs of levi straws are higher after guggenheim raised their price earnings from 24 bucks to 20 buy rate on it levis trading just above 20, up 2.5% visa hitting an all-time high today. the stock now up 50% since the march lows this was one of the best performers over the past decade

adding 2.2%, and shares of astrazeneca from the spotlight following the uk's emergency use approval for the vaccine it developed with oxford university azn adding half a percent. on that note, don't miss an exclusive interview with professor sir john bell who helped oversee the vaccine on "closing bell" at 3:00 p.m. today eastern time. sticking with health care, let's talk about what could be considered a classic buy the rumor sell the news event. since pfizer received its fda authorization for its covid vaccine the stock is down nearly 10%. same pattern is true for moderna since it received authorization for its vaccine. the stock is town 20% p.as you can see there, down another 2% today. let's get over to leslie picker for our cnbc news update hi, leslie. >> hey, kelly, i'm leslie pick and here's what's happening at this hour. canada will require all arriving passengers to show proof of a negative covid test. the test must be performed

within 72 hours of arrival. operation warp speed top adviser says two more covid-19 vaccines are on track to get u.s. approval early next year. the dr. slaoui says johnson & johnson's vaccine could gain clearance in early february while astrazeneca's vaccine could get the green light in april. and in india, tens of thousands of protesting farmers have reached a partial agreement with the government over new laws that caused them to blockade highways for weeks. more talks are set for monday to resolve the remaining had issues. and a titan of the public relations business has died. howard rubenstein's high-profile client include donald trump, former yankees owner george steinbrenner he was 88 years old. and that's our cnbc news update for this hour back over to you, kelly. >> all right leslie, thank you very much. 2020 was a big year for tech, up more than 42% to handley outperform the broader s&p but noted tech investor dan

niles said he's getting cautious on the sector for 2021 and some of his favorite names for the year are in energy to get his picks head over to cnbc.com/pro and coming up here the oil and gas is on track for its second month of gains and we'll speak with one analyst who says oil will be stuck in virus alley for some time next year. remember, you can always watch us on the request using the cnbc app any time we're back in a couple we made usaa insurance for members like martin. an air force veteran made of doing what's right, not what's easy. so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way martin's family needs it with hassle-free claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. because doing right by our members, that's what's right.

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♪ it's been exactly one year since covid-19 first emerged in wuhan china before spreading to the rest of the world. a look at where china is in its

reopening. >> reporter: hey, kelly. well, things look normal, for example. this restaurant is almost full, one day ahead of new year's eve after months of struggling to stay in business exactly a year ago today an eye doctor in wuhan alerted his fellow doctors in a chat group that a mystery virus emerged at his hospital he was later silenced by police and died by what became known as the world as covid-19. today businesses like this have made a comeback and china is expected to grow by 8% in 2021 but even here life is not the way it used to be. beijing has had many outbreaks there are 20 cases to 1.2 million people have been tested and there's still controversy over what happened in wuhan. a study out this week by the chinese cdc showed an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43% which some experts say half a million people in wuhan were infected or exposed to the virus and a local journalist was sentenced this week to four

years in prison for her reporting in wuhan and china is one step closer to having a home grown vaccine. state producer sinopharm said one of its candidates is 79% effective. the results are only interim of a phase three trial and the lack of a detailed breakdown of the trial data for the vaccines is raising concerns about their safety and efficacy. kelly? >> hour thanks to eunice eun. 2020 has meanwhile been an historic year for the oil market crude is down 21% since january. beginning the year at $60 a barrel and sitting today at 48, so what made the year so historic well, let's take you back to april. an april 20th crude, already hammered by the pandemic, began the day at $17 a barrel. minutes before the close crude prices plunged and even went negative, something that had never happened before. it got worse and worse and worse until oil eventually settled at

negative $37.63, essentially means i'm paying you to take my oil contract it did rebound the following day to around $10 a barrel but the wild moves sent investors fleeing from energy with the sector the worst performer in the s&p down 36% this year that said, in the past three months, it's outperforming every other sector it's now up about 26% in that time frame, and according to our cnbc quarterly stock report exxon is the top choice among investors when asked when the best performing investment will be in 2021 beating out bitcoin, tesla and apple. is this optimism warranted here's the vice chair and author of "the new map. dap, we say all this to welcome you on because i know you're more cautious on the oil outlook than we've heard from a lot of folks recently why in. >> i certainly see oil as improved and will continue to improve once people feel comfortable that the shutdowns

are going to start to lessen, but when i called it the virus alley it's the sense that it will be volatile, a little over $50 now, but growth will resume, but it's going to resume when activity resumes, when people start driving again more than they have and when people start flying more, but that could be two, three months from now depending upon how widespread the vaccinations are, so this is not a long-term thing and oil has been struggling in that range of 40 to 50, and it's very close around the $50 raining right now. >> so let's zero in on that, dan, for a moment of the you're saying when you talk about being trapped in virus alley that you see crude kind of trapped between the $40 and $50 levels here why can't we break out to the $50 to $56 range that you say is so important for investors and for the oil patch? >> well, kelly, i think it will actually break out, and it probably wouldn't be until the spring that we would see it --

we'll see on a sustained basis get out of this, and it will be very closely tied to economic active i mean, i think by the end of next year around this time or early 2022 we'll see oil demand back to where it was in 2019 and we'll in that higher price range that will will be bringing out the investment and ending the kind of retrenchment that we've seen now, but it's still a period what you've been talking about in terms of the shutdowns that have been now happening can get to the other side of that to be on a sustained basis. >> we also have the supply piece of the equation to worry about you know, you can have a nice increase in demand, but like you said, if opec is keeping 7 million barrels a day off the market and the iranian deal comes back because of a biden administration and if the u.s. starts producing more like we were at the heights then all of a sudden you have a lot of supply for that demand to absorb we got the headline that u.s. drillers have added the most gas

rigs since the second quarter of 2016 will that be a mitigating factor here >> it's certainly start of anticipating what's going to happen i think oil production now in the u.s. is down about 2 million barrels a day from where it was in february so i think we'll really start to see it increase again in cape of the middle of the second half of the year, but, kelly, you're pointing to something that's out there there's a lot of oil on the shrines which that opec plus is trying to keep on shrines is, and that will be part of the game as to how well do they control it do they bring on 500 barrels a day or do people start to add more supply in the oversupply hangs out there, and the question you point to about iran is really important and that gets into the geopolitics between the united states and iran with a biden administration >> it does and i'm struck again by -- we mentioned this a moment ago, but one of the investors who usually comes on this network to talk about themes and technology and otherwise is saying that his

favorite picks for next year, dan niles i'm referring to, are in energy, so all of a sudden there are a lot of people looking to the sector, dan, and saying they think this is now the time to get in, and i just wonder, again, not because you're a portfolio manager or anything, but for all the people who think exxon is going to be the top pick and energy is the place to be, i mean, would you say to kind of check the enthusiasm or does it make sense to you that it could continue to be a really strong performer >> well, clearly the sector has been so beaten down that that's the point, you know, how many sectors have been that low and the other thing i think this sector is really focused, the companies are focussed on returns to investors and whether there's shale or with large companies and with higher prices if you get back to the $50 to $65 range and some companies are betting on $15 then these companies will be able to deliver returns to investors, so this has been so unloved this, year that's now ending, that it's getting a little tender

loving care going into next year >> i guess finally, and this is another concern that comes up sometimes for people who remain skeptical about investing in energy, they say there's too much private equity money. there's too much capital in general that's keeping unprofitable firms alive preventing consolidation and that kind of thing do you think that still rings true >> well, i think what we're seeing already is that there's going to be a lot of consolidation in it the shale sector it -- it was a sector that was really driven by the independents, by smaller companies. people are getting together to be more efficient and to bring down their costs and that's partly to guarantee that there will be return to investors so i think we'll see more consolidation as a response to that, and that's part of the new social contract as acevedo calle it between the industry and investors. >> well, on that point of that social contract, what does that mean these days? i mean, this is an industry that is seen as, you know, uninvestable by a whole new

generation, right? even as there are in many ways these individual companies are making huge investments to be part of, you know, green tech and renewables, have huge businesses and other things going on what does that social contract look like right now? >> the social contract has two parts. one is a return to investors and there's certainly some investors who don't want to touch the sector and others who basically want to see returns and if there are returns they will be there and at the same time the industry itself is adjusting to the era with the sustainability and looking at controlling methane and oil and all the things that they will do, they realize that they have to respond to an esg agenda, and that's why a lot of companies, for instance, are looking at hydrogen now as pafrlt play, but it's going to be -- the industry is adjusting to -- it has to adjust to a different, as you put, it different part of contract, two parts, one is returns and the other sze sg they are not necessary lit same investors.

>> i see the prize over your shoulder there remains one of my favorite books of all time. thanks for joining us today. >> pleasure. good to sigh, today. >> dan jurgen of ihs. >> from billy eilish to foo fighters, high-profile artists and concert venue concerns which theselers get the first round of this funding and how much it can do to keep them going in 2021. that's right after this. ♪

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welcome back to "the exchange." let's zero in on two big calls on the street. first on nike. guggenheim calling the stock the best idea for 2021 in the sector of giving it a $165 price target, a 17% rally. you would think more of a rally. anyway they are saying nike is embarking on its next era of history which will be digitally

led. guggenheim says athleisure will remain favorable in an area where nike is the leader and they expect the company's new product innovation to remain robust the stock is up 135% from its lows this year. and on the industrial side, let's take a look at caterpillar. baird getting bullish on the name calling it its top idea for 2021 and hiking its price target to the 220 from 206 so that's about a 20% real they are saying demand in the key markets is set to rebound. among them for construction equipment. baird sees retail demand also accelerating against easy prior year comparisons and history shows dealers have the 10% restocking cat is up more than 106% from its 5 it-week low. still ahead, $15 billion has been designated for independent concert venues in the newest round of still lumpts we'll get an update from the ceo of count basie center for the arts right here in new jersey talk about our save the stages act and how many they are continuing to rethink concert and events as the pandemic goes

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welcome back to "the exchange." with the latest stimulus package, relief is finally on the way for thousands of live entertainment venues

ylan mui with a close look at what's in the bill and whether it's enough to turn things around for some of the struggling players ylan >> reporter: kelly, the new legislation sets aside $15 billion in direct aid for thousands of independent venues like music clubs, movie theaters and museums. the money will be delivered as grants worth 45% of their 2019 revenue, and it can be used towards ongoing costs. >> mortgage, rent, utilities those recurring expenses, those didn't stop just because of a pandemic you know, our ref new spigvenues cut off but all the daily, monthly expenses have continued to agrew. >> reporter: blaine tucker is an owner and investor in several texas music clubs, including the country store, an old school honky-tonk where elvis and patsy cline have all performed and it's a lone star state

destination. >> you know, it's not just a place to go out and drink beer and have fun while it is that, too, is there are huge economic drivers in any city around the country. >> reporter: now this legislation specifically prohibits the relief money from going towards any large companies or publicly traded companies, but, still, some of the biggest names in entertainment have gotten behind this effort, alice cooper, katy perry, sarah silver man. kelly, the challenge is setting up these programs could take a couple of months and some businesses may not be able to hold on that long. back to you. >> and what's the estimate, ylan, of when people can get access to these funds? we know the distribution, own even on the vaccine front, have been the thorn in our side all year. >> reporter: blayne tucker said march is his conservative estimate for when these programs might be set is up and the money can start going out the door the good news is that the hardest hit businesses would be able to access the cash first,

so those with 90% loss of revenue or more, they would get access to the first tranche of money, and then it would sort of go on after that but certainly these businesses have been waited for this relief already for months since the pandemic started if you're looking at next march, that's been march, that's been a whole year that they've gone without this help >> yeah. which is -- i don't know how anyone can stay afloat for a year with basically no revenues. yl ylan, we appreciate it ylan mui out of washington one of the relief funds is the count basie center for the performing arts. count basie is responsible nor than $18 hello in local economic impact and it drew more than a quarter million visitors a year before the pandemic. joining us is adam phillipson, its ceo. adam, it's great to have you so first of all, your knee-jerk reaction to the funding and when you're going to have access to it is what >> first of all, thanks for having us back, kelly. you know, nice to be here, expressing some gratitude.

knee-jerk reaction is as we're reading through everything is there's probably three rounds of funding. we think we'll be in the second round and as has been said probably march is when that money's going to become available. >> so that's good or it's too little too late? what's been going on with all of these venues that have been -- have you guys been effectively closed this whole time or have you figured out a way to stay hope and try to do some events >> yeah, we have we've been lucky that we've been able to pivot and be creative. we did outdoor programming over the summer we partnered with a couple of venues outdoors. we had some of the biggest and most active concert gatherings and now we have two indoor venues, and it's small and it's not suss feignable but we have our new venue the volvo and a pop-up stage in our hackensack meridian health theater we've opened at about 150 people there's a lot of venues that have not been able to do that just because of their smaller capacities and you know, they're going to be hanging on. and hopefully there are?

other funds that will come in to support them in the interim. but we've been able to be innovative and get some revenue flowing. >> when you're looking out to 2021, i imagine typically you're booking this calendar months and months ahead of time, coordinating with all sorts of different concerts and schedulers and promoters so are you starting to book things for next year with an eye toward okay, by april or july or september we think we're going to be getting back to normal, or do you have to wait until we know because the more that we think about it the more you wonder when we are going to know that it's okay to gather indoors for a concert again. >> yeah, that's -- first of all, we've had about 115 shows in 2019 we've already moved we moved them to 2020 and now they're being moved to 2021. there's very few canceled. most of them just kept pivoting forward. so you know, we're thinking if everything continues and there's light at the end of the tunnel and there's enough vaccines that

get out there and an appropriate form of getting that to the people that need it to feel safely, then we're hoping that by september we should be able to see us back to some level, 70%, 80% capacity. >> yeah. the ppp loan, the first -- or i guess the last time around, how did that work for you guys what were you able to do how long did it last and what about the next round of funding? because there will be more ppp funds available as well as this targeted relief. >> right it worked well for us. i think it helped us survive the first really -- i mean, maybe the first six to eight weeks, you know, it helped us be able to think and pivot and come up with some other strategies and move our education programs online and do all the things that we had to do to remain relevant in the field. you know, we're hearing right now that if you're going to get the stimulus, the s.o.s. money, you probably wouldn't qualify for the ppp as well because i think both are going through the sba. so i'm not sure that we'll get both, but certainly those venues

that wouldn't qualify for this -- for the s.o.s. money would qualify probably for another round of ppp >> yeah. i'm also curious because you guys have had a success in getting this direct relief in the bill what do you think about the restaurant industry, which is not seeing its similar kind of measure move forward they obviously will be able to tap ppp, but you think if anybody's an obvious candidate for targeted relief they would be one of them what was your experience like? >> yeah, i mean, we were surprised. we thought that we would be all part of this bill. and certainly we've been helping each other, all relying on each other, right we all feed the economies. i think the restaurants have been incredibly helpful to us to be advocating at least in red bank how important it is that the count basie's open again, to thrive with businesses in our community. and we'll continue to be helpful to the restaurants i mean, we're looking into how we can partner with some of them we're advertising to get them out. listen, if we can be open even a little bit, that's more

opportunity for restaurants to have people coming out i think it all has to feed the others and i do believe there will be sufficient legislation to get the restaurants back in business as soon as they can, fully at capacity obviously all of us are waiting for the vaccine to take effect >> yeah. so i guess my last question, then, is you expect 2021 to look more like 2020 or 2019 for your business and for the number of people that you employ and all of those things? >> well, i think it's probably not going to look like 2019. i don't think that we're going to feel a 2019 year, you know, probably for a few years i think it's just going to be slow getting people back and getting people to feel safe. and you know, i think tours are going to be at a little bit lower capacity in the beginning. i don't think it's going to look like 2020. let's say that for sure. but i think 2021's going to still be part of our recovery

and then hopefully by 2022 we're all really kind of moving back to how we were before across the entire sector. >> yeah, wouldn't than nice? just like we heard in that previous segment, you can go somewhere to have a beer and hang out with people sounds really good right now adam, thanks so much for your time good luck. keep us posted >> thank you we will. thanks for having us back. >> adam philipson with the count basie center in red bank, new jersey take a look at amc today, down 6% the company offering 50 million new shares for sale in a fresh round of funding to stave off bankruptcy remember, it's still the largest cinema chain in the world. they raised over $100 million earlier this month on 38 million shares and 200 million available share size so they're having some trouble placing these. still they're down more than 70%, down 6% today, and now it's on the smaller side for us to even mention its market cap is down to under $350 million on the flip side let's take a look at one of the best-performing asset classes

this year. bitcoin. if you can call it its own asset class. it basically is. it's up another 5% today, or $1,500, to another all-time high its market cap is now over half a trillion dollars 518 billion, according to coin market cap and it's now on pace for its best year since 2017 that's when we saw its pairbombic move higher, when it was up almost 1,400% investors have seen demand coming from larger and larger players. some big name investors like drukenmiller, bill miller and paul tudor jones others are attracted to the inflation hedging qualities and looking to flesh out their investment portfolios. the institutional money has just been starting to pour in we'll continue to follow all of it that does it for us here on "the exchange" today. but coming up next on "power lunch" olympic gold medalist bode miller talks to us about s latest venture, his investment

portfolio, and what ski season in a pandemic looks like i'll join brian sullivan for that after this quick break. don't go anywhere.