it is 5:00 a.m. and here are your top five at 5:00. we begin with the final trading day of 2020 as investors look to cap off what has been a turbulent but record-setting year for the markets and mitch mcconnell saying there is no realistic path forward to those 2 tho$2,000 stimulus checs we'll have the latest. and that as we learn more on cases here in the u.s. of that new covid strain from overseas and then we have to cover the ongoing outbreak, really

decembimating the global box office and say so long to 2020, as parts of the world are officially welcoming in 2021 it is thursday, december 31, 2020 finally. and you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ i'm going to wait 'til the midnight hour, that's when my love comes ♪ >> i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan and happy new year to the island of samoa which just welcomed in 2021 among the first to do so. here is how your money is setting up on the final trading day of 2020. stock futures, a little flat earlier, now kind of getting into the negative territory with the exception of the nasdaq which is up slightly taking a look at the year which.

nasdaq climbing 43%, bodow 15%. and this despite the dramatic drop back in march with the s&p suffering its most rapid 30% drawdown on record now speaking of the s&p, taking a look at the big winners there, one of the big names we talk about it all the time, tesla up a whopping 730%. that is not a typo and we experienced the new stay-at-home air quote norm. other names including invidia, paypal and l brands all rising more than 100% now looking at the dow top performers, two tech titans. apple and microsoft right up there. sa sa sal sal salesforce up 37%. and disney up with the baby yod

stocks not seeing the love and joumanna bercetche has a look overseas. happy new year >> happy new year, frank you know, you were saying that you will show some of the stocks that aren't seeing the love, i thought you were talking about european markets because it is not a pretty last trading day here capping off a rather negative year in general i would say. the stoxx 600 will end the year down about 3.5 percentage points also just want to draw on a little bit of what we're seeing in the uk, the ftse 100 again on the back food todat today. there is a lot of political uncertainty with brexit. and last week the two sides finally came to an agreement and that has now been formally signed off by the house of commons, which means that at

exactly 11:p.m. tonight the uk will become a third party member so a long time coming and finally happening tonight. and in reaction to that, we are seeing markets trade on the back foot and the pound is trying to inch out some gains, but generally speaking the mood is pretty dim on this last day of the trading year >> all ight, thank you very much and now to the other top headlines. those $2,000 stimulus checks looking unlikely now after mitch mcconnell refused to separate them from a demands unrelated to the checks mcconnell introducing a measure to the house's standalone plan earlier this week which would also rescind legal liability protections for tech companies and create a panel on voter

fraud. and they are investigating a possible second case of a more contagious strain that originated overseas. health experts say the new strain is more contagious but not more severe and could put further stress on the already burdened hospitals in this country if it intensifies. and one of the ox ford university professors who oversaw its vaccine development with astrazeneca says he is confident that the covid-19 treatments can be adjusted to protect against mutations. he spoke to closing bell yesterday. >> this is a gauge of cat and mouse now. if we have to make new vaccines, we can make them, now that we've done the initial work. i'm sure our friends with the rna vaccines can do the same so i think that we're ready if we need to make another vaccine to approach it and just to be clear, i doubt that will require the full clinical trial protocol.

it will probably involve just initial studies and be approved after that and back to the broader markets. it has been a steady climb for stocks the s&p 500 is up more than 65% over the past nine months. and almost 16% for the year. and some strategists say with valuations this high, it really wouldn't be a surprise to see a pullback in the early part of next year, but they still expect gains overall in 2021. let's get more market insight from chuck self at isectors. so chuck, everybody wants to know what we'll expect in 2021 you're in the hot seat, so today we're seeing futures slightly lower with the nasdaq the only one in the positive. but yesterday we saw the dow close at a record, the s&p and nasdaq close to a record is this a sign of investor confidence that we'll get back to some air quote normalcy >> yeah, and obviously the american public wants to be normal by the summer

and we could get there but we have to have 3 million to 4 million doses per day administered to get there. so we'll get there eventually, but how long it will take is still uncertain. and so with the s&p earnings up next year, that could have a forward looking pe at 22 plus, and everything has to go right and we think that there is a risk that the market has become too exuberant. >> so let's talk sectors knowing what we know today, what sectors would you invest in and what do you think about energy and financials energy this month up 5%, financials up 4.5% would you continue to pit money put money in those or do you see a change with the vaccine rollout and stimulus checks? we think that it is too premature to get into the heavy cyclical names of energy and financials

obviously the whole commodity market has done well since the march low, but still energy is down 20% this year and so until we see -- until we know there will be demand globally, we won't see the energy go up we think that the best way that investors can position themselves is to do the technology utilities bar bell as i call it because both of those sectors have earnings disability no matter what happens to the market and to the economy. >> let's talk utilities for a second what is your case for utilities? i know i've spoken to analysts that say with the new work-from-home world, it is a higher margin business than when go to work and use the power but is there another case for you tiutilities in q1? >> the case is that there is a global search for yield. people have gotten a little skittish about treasuries or

bonds in general just because yields have gone up here at the end of this year whereas utilities are still earning very good, you know, 2.5%, 3% type yields depending on the utilities. so all investors should have some money in utilities as their safe place as far as investments are concerned. >> and you touched commodities what do you think about commodity investing especially with the soft dollar, is this the time to ride the wave of gold or if you didn't get in to gold earlier this year, have you missed it? >> you haven't missed it we're still over 10% below the highs and commodities up over 30% since the march low, but still nowhere near the highs we think this is the beginning of a multiyear commodity bull market and whether you play it in gold or broader commodities, you will do well in 2021

>> all right chuck, before i let you go, any other sectors that we should keep our eye on, consumer discretionary has been very hot, of course with the names in there like amazon. what do you think about that sector, or is there another sector we should watch >> again, because we're concerned about the rollout, we think consumer discretionary which was the second best sector this year has overdone it, specifically on the communications side. we think that pure technology will still be in favor in 2021 and we're positioned for a rise in that sector >> chuck, appreciate you happy new year to you. thanks for being here. and more to come here. when we come back, clean energy funds seeing a big 2020 with some even outperforming the s&p 500. we'll break down where the money is flowing, plus softbank making new moves with its money the apparent construction play by the world's largest tech investor and speaking of money moves, i'm expecting to hear cardi b

right here, leslie picker lays out the good and bad and down right ugly wn heit comes to hedge funds making money this year a very busy hour still ahead

today's big number 302% that is how much bitcoin has rallied year to date hitting a new high yesterday it is the crypto currency's best year since 2017 when it was up

over 1,000%. i don't think that we could end the show without talking about bitcoin. and turning to focussed funds, they jumped to record highs amid investor momentum. and as investors pile in, these funds are climbing with some returning more than ten times the s&p 500. pippa stevens is here with more. so amid the record inflows, which funds are attracting the most capital and of course happy new year >> happy new year to you too it really is an exciting time for sustainable vesting. this year for the first time on record, funds in eesg focused funds topped $1 trillion it was driven by the pandemic, social injustice, climate change, a host of factors. so getting down to some of the specifics, we've seen a lot of inflows in to some of the largest esg funds.

so blackrock's flagship product for instance we've seen $9.5 billion of fund flows this year bringing that fund's year end to around $13 billion. similarly, the swrvanguard esg attracting a lot of attention, its total to around $3 billion but we've also seen a lot of strength in more specific areas within that esg umbrella so for instance the ishares global clean energy etf, that has seen about $2.5 billion in inflows bringing its total to around $4.5 billion. >> interesting stuff here, pippa, some big inflows here so what is in thieves funds aind how does performance factor? >> that is a great question because that really gets to the heart of some of the issues that some people have with esg vesting because it is a broad term so there could be a lot of

different strategies so it is important for investors to look under the hood to really make sure that they know what they are buying. so the flagship esg funds from blackrock and vanguard, those will look a lot like the s&p 500. within those top holdings, you will see names like apple, amazon, facebook, google, each much those funds up about 20% this year. so we're roughly in line with the s&p 500 outperforming it a little bit but frank, the real strength this year has been in those funds that are more focused on specific areas of esg. so clean tech really an outperformer here. taking a look at the invesco solar etf shares are up more than 200%. the imomentum is behind clean tech and renewable energy specifically >> and very interesting stuff here thank you very much. interesting insight into esg funds. pippa stevens, happy new year. still on deck, big tech

stocks proving to be unstoppable. we layout whether tsector can keep the momentum going in 2021.

a live look at auckland, new you xi land. they will be the next to celebrate the new year and let's get the latest from phillip mena. >> the white house says the president is returning to washington this afternoon one day earlier than previously planned. no reason was given for the schedule change, but mr. trump has been focused on disrupting wednesday's election certification in congress. new york governor cuomo is allowing about 6700 fans to attend the buffalo bills first playoff game at home in 25 years. ticket holders will be required to pass a covid-19 test before entering the game. finally, the first major city is getting ready to ring in

the new year in the coming hours. auckland new zealand and sydney also and here in new york city, the ball will drop as it normally does of course minus the crowds in times square. >> minus the crowds, but they will have crowds at the bills game so i know you worked in texas. are you a texans fan >> i do like the houston texans. it has been a bad year for them, but i'm happy to see the buffalo bills doing well the fans deserve it, so glad to see almost 7,000 of they willing in >> i'm an eagles fan and i don't think the -- yeah, i know. i don't think the games are the same without the crowd, so an encouraging sign but to me, the nba works without the crowd. >> they had a better setup >> phillip, thank you very much. and still ahead, mitch mcconnell keeping up his road block for more virus aid for millions of americans. and he rinr,ouemde y can

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stocks look to cap off what has been a record-setting 2020 on a muted note. fits flat to slightly lower. and some of the biggest names of the tech sector kept going up, but can they keep the momentum going. and softbank reportedly getting

in on the construction business with its latest investment it is thursday, december 31, 2020 we've all been waiting for this day. ♪ >> welcome back. i'm frank holland in for big papa, brian sullivan here is how investments look stop fits flat it slightly lower. keep in mind the nasdaq was up slightly higher earlier. taking a year that was, a record setting one for the markets, the nasdaq climbing 43%, the s&p 500 and dow posting 15% and 6% gains respectively, this despite the dramatic drop back in march amid the early days of the covid-19 outbreak here in the u.s. with the s&p suffering its most rapid

30% dr 30% drawdown on record but not every stock is reaping the rewards pl travel and energy getting hit hard carnival, occidental petroleum, norwegi norwegian, marathon oil all down 50% or more. and dow's worst permitt e performers, boeing is recovering walgreens and chevron and intel and merck all seeing double digit droopps and the white house announced late yesterday that it would increase tariffs on nonsparkling wines and cognacs the move in the ongoing spat over aerospace subsidies will kick in january 12 just days before joe biden is sworn in as president. softbank is reportedly investing $200 million for a majority

stake in katerra this is on top of the $2 billion softbank has already invested. the "journal" says the fresh funds will allow avoiding bankruptcy and alden global capital which already has a 32% stake in tribune could announce an offer for the company as early as today. they took a third seat on the board in exchange for increasing its stake or making a hostile bid until after june of 2021 and now to that developing story out of washington, d.c mitch mcconnell refusing to back done over his demands to get a bill on $2,000 checks out to millions of americans in need of aid. and i meamon javers is joining the latest >> good morning. such a fascinating political dynamic here because mitch mcconnell is standing sort of to

thwarting president trump's ambitions. the president tweeting that he wants the $2,000 stimulus checks they will of course s mcconnell of course saying no blocking an effort by democrats to bring that $2,000 check bill to the floor clean, that is without any other amendments or details attached to it mcconnell saying he doesn't see any real lisz tick paistic patho happen and mcconnell also suggesting that he will package it together with two other measures that the president said that he likes, he will package it together with the idea of an election commission to look into supposed election fraud even though there has been no demonstrated example of election fraud over the past election cycle and he will also package it along with the measure to repeal section 230 of the communications decency act, that is the measure that gives tech companies liability protection from things that people post on

the internet if you remove that, you will dramatically change the way that the internet operates and up end the business model for a lot of social media he companies. the president says he wants that because he is concerned that the conservative voices are being suppressed online. not a whole lot of evidence of that, but you do have some allies on the left who like the idea of being able to limit some free speech. so there is an interesting potential coalition around that but it doesn't have the center of gravity support to get done this year. so as for right now, those $2,000 checks are a dead letter. >> and here is a question i think that everybody in the country and d.c. are all asking ourselves today. what are the chances that we get the $2,000 checks once president-elect biden is sworn in >> that is a good question and something that nancy pelosi has been a little bit coy about. she has been a little bit wary

of indicating that she will push for this next time, partly you don't want to give up your negotiating mensleverage, but b has said that he sees this stimulus that just passed and signed by the president on sunday as just a down payment on what needs to be done overall. so, you know, you might imagine that they might another crack at this. >> certainly more developments on the way thank you very much and happy new year >> you bet you too. and back to the markets and 2020 really proving to be a year for the books when it comes to big tech the sectors's leaders apple, amazon, facebook, google and microsoft notching gains between 29% and nearly 82% this despite mounting pressure out of washington. i'm joined by jason ware for more on this happy new year >> happy new year.

>> we'll jump right into this. what should very expect out of tech coming in the new year? we saw stimulus checks the $600 ones come out and then we saw apple and amazon fall. which seems a little counterintuitive >> yeah, might seem a little counterintuitive, but at the same time, what we've seen with the past stimulus checks, that a lot of that went into savings and paid down debt so this idea that it would go into a new iphone or something else i'm not sure excites investors. i don't think that you need stimulus checks for apple's business to continue to do well. there is a number of drivers there. the iphone 12 cycle looks like it is pretty spring loaded for 2021 we're pretty optimistic on the 5g up grade. amazon has done well without stimulus that has become a tech utility both in the cloud and ecommerce.

so these desk 2340knowledge companies are the leaders in their categories and we think that they are probably good earnings growth stories going forward. not sure that you will get multiple expansion but earnings growth for these companies look anywhere between 15% and 30% going into 2021 and even if valuations are stable, then we've seen a fairly good consolidation over the last four to six months and i think that they could still be good investments. >> and you hit a hot button issue, are they overvalued or are they tech utilities that there is no real ceiling for them >> yeah, it is a great question. and we don't think the valuations on the large technology stocks that we own look unrealistic whether you are looking at apple 30 times next years earnings or microsoft 30 times next years earnings, we also like visa that doesn't get a lot of discussion or focus among the faang names and trading around 30 times

forward earnings so i think if you look at it from a pe perspective, they are not terribly expensive if rates remain low, i think stocks trading 25 to 35 times earnings in these types of returns on invested kapts and just look at the reinvestment in the businesses, let's say amazon is doing, it is hard to compete against these large tech companies and they are only getting stronger and larger as the pandemic went on, as you mentioned the tech utility profile. so i don't think that they are terribly overvalued. if they were at 50 or 70 times, maybe we would have that conversation but large cap tech to us seems realistic, real revenues, real profits, real free cash flow these are good businesses. >> so speaking of growing stronger, we have to talk about tesla. you mentioned the valuation of other companies like amazon. looking at te tesla, trading at 180 times forward earnings, are

we missing something or is this overvalued >> tesla is not a stock that we own in the portfolio and part of that is because it has always been expensive amazon for example has always been expensive on a pe basis and we own amazon. we prefer to look at it on a free cash flow basis and sales basis. so maybe some are looking at tesla through lens we are not so i don't have a real strong opinion on where tesla's stock goes obviously if we were bullish, we would have it in the portfolio i think that their totalab addressable market, they are dominant in electric vehicles. and that is exciting i understand why investors are putting that valuation on the stock given that they are obviously a big player in the solar industry with the purchase of solar city battery technology will be a

huge business over the next decade so investors are pricing in a lot of growth over tesla and so it won't probably trip up the stock, but ultimately it will have to grow into that valuation and it might be a bit tricky so for now, we're not owners of the stock. >> and fintech, you see square and paypal having interesting years and again they are very high forward pe. what is your take on them especially with the weak dollar? do you see them strengthening in the q1 of 2021 as all of us until the vaccines proliferate will still be stuck at home? >> i don't think the weak dollar will have a whole lot of effect on the paypal/squares of the world. i think this comes down to the secular growth and the dom nansz that they have we own paypal, it has been a great stock for us square we don't own. i think jack dorsey has done a great job with that company. our preferred tilt in fintech is

through visa and a company called vicer they have had double digit earnings growth for as long as -- you go back and look, they dominate those particular niches so it is a space that you want to have exposure to, a lot of reasons to think that the digitization of payments will continue to be a dominant story over the next ten years. visa for example not only has a secular growth story as they duopoly with credit and debit cards, but also acyclical stor as well as we get back to normal visa is a toll collector so i think you should own fintech, but do it through companies that have a little bit better valuation i think paypal is a good stock we like visa and vicer >> and i think one of the best backgrounds. all right, man, happy new year >> appreciate it coming up, pulling back the

curtain on the uncertain road ahead for the box office, whether it can box back in 2021. but first, some of the other top stories, bad news for exxonmobile as it is apparently signaling an historic fourth straight loss due to slumping oil demand koorlgd according to a report the oil giant is expected to announce a write-down of unto $20 billion on its upstream assets for the quarter. and ticket master set to pay a fine to avoid prosecution here in the u.s the company accused of repeatedly hacking its rival's computer systems and a big change coming in 2021, half of u.s. states will raise their minimum wage to $15 an hour. critics argue the move could hurt small businesses and cause job losses amid ongoing pressures.

nature's bounty unleashes something exciting. say hello to a drug-free way to ease stress. stress comfort. a gummy supplement with lemon balm plus saffron, to naturally boost your mood. stress comfort from nature's bounty. 2020 should have been a big year for the movie industry. but with the pandemic taking hold of this country in march, the industry just came to a grinding halt. according to com score, box office revenue was down be 80% in 2020 compared to last year, but a strong slate of films in 2021 might mean the movie theater industry is not dead just yet let's bring in senior media

analyst at com score happy new year, paulg. >> happy new year, frank >> so we have to jump right in to this. what could bring back the movie industry it feels like that lot of us have gotten comfortable watching movies at home including new releases >> and a lot of people are, but this past weekend for example, wonder woman 1984 opened with almost $17 million while simultaneously available on hbo max. that says a lot. that is easy that people could have sat at home on their couch, but a lot of people chose to go out to the movie theater, and i think that was a really encouraging and great sign for the movie theater business for sure >> i haven't seen it yet, so don't spoil it >> i won't spoil it. >> i want to talk to you about bad boys for life. strong box office opening for them back in january >> yeah. >> any movie this january that could come anywhere near that kind of performance and pull people back in to the theaters

in. >> i mean, it will take a while. i thinkuntil capacity rises, right now according to our com score data, theaters are open in north america at about 35% of those there is limited seating capacity and that helped kick off this year and it feels like forever ago when the movie opened, it did great business and in fact january and february were so strong, we were running ahead of last year which in north america wound up at $11.4 billion and globally a record $42.5 billion all the while streaming was going on in 2019 as well and yet the movie theater business was arriving because of the pandemic and everything came like you said to a screeching la halt march 20 was the day that theaters shut down and drive-ins took over according to our data, the drive-in represented i february like 1.5% of box office and in march and april, 80% and

90%. so drive-this is another example of the way that people found, you know, they were literally driven i should say and they found a way to see movies on that big screen in a communal environment. so that again, that is telling us that people want to go, but they have to feel safe and secure 2021 i think could be a huge year, but it will take some time and then i think '21 2021 2022 t back to normalcy >> and i saw your stats about drive-in movies and i thought it was fascinating. not many here in the northeast not sure about other parts of the country. but the growth for drive-in movies, is that sustainable as we see that deurba urbaurbanizan trend? >> the drive abo-in was around year but we weren't reporting on it i would like to see that come back i think that is a great way to get people feeling good about going to the movies, they will

go to the drive-ins, but again people are also going to brick and mortar theaters where available. remember, this is an industry that was really sidelined through no fault of its own back in march and had to scramble. we saw so many movies move to the latter part of 2020 and now 2021, james bond, black widow, and mission impossible 7, jungle cruise and all these big movi movies, so we're hoping with the vaccine and things carry on, that the pandemic situation is handled, that then people, that pent up demand will manifest itself in people going back to movie theaters because the business definitely needs to have that boost in 2021. >> so paul, i think the question we all want to know, what can give movie theaters that spark there was a movie that came out in august that normally i think would have generated a lot of excitement the new mutants. it is by 20th century forks but the super hero theme that gets people excited

and it did relatively well, but not great. so is there a genre that can really pull people back in, is it super hero movies, a drama? >> i think it is a combination of everything. it is just about having brand new movies that is what people want no matter the genre, i think people want to go back something new and exciting, of course super hero movies can do that, you have top gun on fourth of july 620 of 2021, that will e me back. people just want to have a great time with their family or friends in that environment. and once again, once the pandemic, once it is under control in a really big way, it will take some time, i think people will want to go back, we've seen that in the data over and over again with the drive-of-in drive-ins, considering that people have all this great content at home, it is a click away on your couch yet people

are finding a way to go back to the movie theater. so i'm very optimistic about the future but it is going to take some time, and there will of course be changes that may sustain for the long term like dynamic windowing and other types of release models for movies. but the movie theater will be back >> all right, dynamic windowing. you are a maverick on your own forget about top gun thanks for being with us on deck, a 2020 to remember for some hedge funds leslie picker is laying out the big winners and their investing strategies

2020 proving to be a blockbuster year for a number of hedge funds. so what is their secret to

success? leslie picker is joining us with much more on that. happy new year >> happy new year, frank good to see you. this year as i mentioned was met by some of the biggest disburses ever sos w ts the winners won big an losers, returns were pretty ugly some that put up some of the best returns tended to be equities focused with a human at the helm and were oftentimes smaller in size. stock picks certainly had a comeback year, funds that focused on energy, health care, technology are on pace to actually beat the s&p 500. funds like tiger global, d 1 and dragoneer have been some of the standouts. and when combining all strategies together, it appears that smaller funds did better because the average return for the industry was about 7%.

but when take you in an asset weighted basis, it is negative 1.7% being names like renaissance and winton still it could be considered a comeback year for hedge funds in general. most strategies cy ies did outpm the markets in march when they became spooked by the pandemic shutdowns. and fresh data shows that there were 151 new funds in the third quarter alone, that is the highest quarterly launch total in over a year and the first time new launches have surpassed liquidations in over two years >> interesting stuff here. so i have to ask you, a big year for tech, but not for computers when it comes to hedge funds >> yeah, that's right. >> why did they do so much worse? >> investing in tech stocks was

something that the computers were not able to foresee what is fascinating abot thanat- fascinating about 2020, they create the regressions based on historical analysis. they look at history and say this is how the markets performed when such and such happens and then they create models so that the trading can mere other what the markets have done historically. but when i get a once in a century pandemic, in an economy that looks nothing like it did in 1918, you wouldn't say invest in internet stocks back in 1918, the sxucomputers didn't know wht to do. so that is why you see some of the underperformance >> leslie, thank you very much and happy new year back to the broader markets now as investors gear up for the final trading day of the year, 2020 proving to be a record year for the markets despite numerous headwinds. for more, i'm joined by

portfolio manager and equity strategist at fed raerated we'll jump right in. where do you see the up side, down side, and how does the emerging retail investor that has so much equity in their home, how do they play a part? >> would i be surprised to see some kind of pull back possibly but that is not where we're focused. where we're focused as we've said a long time, this economy exited recession this year and it is in recovery now and we think that that will be a multiyear recovery for the economy. and we think markets will respond. and we think it is those parts of the are market that are difficult to buy things like dividends payers and value cyclicals and international stocks we think that those economies will get the growth as we roll out the vaccines and the economy continues to recover and that is really where we're focused for most of 2021

>> and speaking of vaccines and the whole situation with the pandemic, what macro numbers are you looking at to kind of read the tea leaves are you looking at covid-19 cases, jobless claims, interest rates, bond yields >> i think this is one of the real lessons of 2020, that even if you think you know a certain parameter, you might be wrong. for example, if you had told me in march that we would have had six times the numbering of cases today than we did then, that the markets would be at all-time highs, i would have thought you were nuts and i would have sold. so i think the numbers that will be key next year are things like retail sales and restaurant bookings and open table reservations and uber rides. just signs that we're getting back to normal, that we're emerging from lockdown we're confident that those will improve as the vaccines are rolled out, but i think those are the kind of metrics, those

nontradition at measur digditio key. >> and so you're saying words that are hitting a key point here signs that things are getting back to normal we have seen incredible gains on the stock market, probably not normal considering what we're experiencing where do you see the s&p going this year, do you have a price target for it? >> for 2021, yeah, we have it going to 4500. we think that you've got significant up side on the market next year because, yeah, look, investors have gotten themselves to the point where they are excited that 2021 hopefully won't be the dumpster fire that 2020 was. i don't think that what we've priced in though is that economic expansions tontdon't lt months and weeks they last quarters and years and we think the s&p will ultimately get above $5,000 before the fed considers raising

rates the next time. so 4500 for next year, 15%, 16%, we've averaged roughly 12% a year since the great recession and we think that it is a little bit better than average year next year. >> but there is a lot of uncertainty. so will the vaccines proliferate, will we get a second round of stimulus, two big question marks right there but when you look at q1, do you see the gains continuing we saw apple and amazon actually fall after the stimulus checks, some confusing signs there what did you see in q1 >> i think that makes sense that those names fell because you have to remember, it is about incremental news flow. if you go back to the first quarter of last year for example, the only place you could do business was amazon because everything was closed. those companies are still doing well, but when you look at other companies like travel and leisure and entertainment and transportation that were essentially shut down last year, and even if they are not doing great, they are not shut down, we think the incremental news

flow is in favor of the beaten down parts of the market and our view is that there is probably a little bit of uncertainty going into the january 6 georgia election, but coming out of that, it is heads we win, till talt tails we wi. we think that the market will get a little more certainty and we think q1 could be a good start to the year. >> final thought here. you touched on that effect on the markets. biden and janet yellen, what is your take on that? >> i think that you will see the continuation of easy honest taker and fiscal policy. i think tax changes are likely to be delayed if they occur at all.

>> and that does it for us thank you to funing in and tuning in. and have a happy safe and healthy new year

good morning and welcome to the final trading day of 2020 as investors look to cap off a turbulent but record-setting year for the markets senator mitch mcconnell says that there is no realistic path

forward for $2,000 stimulus checks we'll take you live to washington plus amazon buying one the last major startups with a podcast business details straight ahead it is thursday, december 31, 2020 and "squawk box" begins right now. glcood morning, welcome to "squawk box. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is out today. watching equity futures, and you will see that things are implied a little bit lower looks like the dow done abown at 2.5 points s&p up by about a point, nasdaq up by about 14 that i