american airlines. i bought the calls in there, 40,000 of them, rolled out till may. that's 4 million share equivale equivalent i think they're going to be right and i like that airline. >> jets, jets, jets. kari, 15 seconds >> booking holdings. it's the ultimate in the reopening trade. we're all going to travel, take planes and stay in hotels. and happy new year to everyone thank you, morgan. thank you to everyone at cnbc and at home. >> thank you to the traders and the viewers. have a very, very happy new year here's to 2021 that does it for "the halftime." "the exchange" begins right now. >> thank you, morgan don't worry everyone, this is a star trek free zone this hour. the last day on what's been a wild and unforgettable year. take a look at a chart of the dow since january. this tells the story we started the year with the index around 28,500 and, woosh, just three months later we

plunge to 18,213 the intraday low for the year on march 23rd 10,000 points erased just like that from there, of course, the rebound took hold and with a new army of retail investors pouring in, it's been nearly a straight line up ever since with judge u.s. is a small blip in november yesterday we closed at a noo record, 30,409, up 6% for the year not too shabby up a whopping 66% from the lows. the dow also saw some big changes this year. exxon, raytheon were swapped out for salesforce, amgen. look at some of the other major averages the s&p 500 up 15% this year and 70% from the bottom in march the index 2191 at the lows but the strongest of all, of course, has been the nasdaq. up 43% 43% for the year on top of last year's 35% gain. that's incredible. and off the lows it's up 93%

investors haven't fled safe havens like bonds and gold the ten-year yield breaking 1 prsz during this show. we now sit at 0.92%. that's a full percentage points drop gold, meanwhile, up 24%, having its best year in a decade. and we won't even mention bitcoin. the flip side of all this is the dollar dropping about 7% on the year. for more on all of this, let's bring in rick san steltelli. >> it's been an unbelievable year for treasuries. i know bin griffith and i teased each other when we talksed about the vix. we used percentage terms maybe that wasn't the best way to go, interest rates either, but today i'm going to make an exception. we're at 157 in a two-year note. we are 146 basis points below

that while that central bank and lowering of rates down 93% five-year closed at 167. it had a low of 19 it's currently at 36, down 131 basis points, down 78% tens down 100 base points, down 50%. 30-year bonds, and this is fascinating, they're the darling with a positive rate, they closed at 233. they're down 160 -- excuse me, down 69 basis points their low yield was 1% almost right on the nose they're currently at 164, down 30%. and the dollar index, you see on the year-to-date chart, down 7% with a big asterisk. consider on march 20th, you see that big bounce march 20th the dollar was almost at 103 from that high you double that minus seven, you're down about

13%. i think that's quite important because there was a lot of people, of course, that really bought into that rally at that point. boy, we really pulled the rug out from under them. 2021 is going to be a lot of foreign exchange spread relationships changing we'll be here on cnbc to help viewers and listeners understand all those changes. kelly, back to you >> rick, what most sticks out in your mind? was it -- i mean, you know, i know in some ways it was a big event, the ten-year going below 1% now it seems rather mundane. we're parked here. what to you was -- you look back at 2020 and what moment encapsulates it? >> i think the moment that encapsulates it for me is sienna, 50 basis point low on a ten-year note. i remember 1985 was the first time bonds traded through par. their yields at one point were in the high teens. we have just basically been in a

market where rates have fallen down pretty much every year for the last dozen years and it can't go on foer. i'm not going to be a predictor here, kelly, but i'm telling you with the kind of spending the globe is doing, the debt we're racking up, the debt-to-gdp and the calibration of growth around the globe, there's going to be a payday where you have to pay the man and those deficit numbers are large. i don't think it's going to be 2021 i think that's going to be a big year and rates will go up. but i think we have a longer runway before we really experience some of that pain and the notion that treasury is going to have to ante up servicing the dert is going to be a huge part of the budget at some point in the future >> what a delicate dance, exit dance that's going to be for the time being rick, thank you, sir happy new year turning now to what's in store for 2021, my next guests with their top idea. alan boomer, ceo at momentum

advisers and robert pavloc at dakota wealth management alan, favorite plays and names for 2021 not only are we coming off a monster performance for the market, nasdaq especially, but as rick just mentioned, we're talk about the fed starting to paper this year, who knows what interest rates are going to do what's your best advice? >> thank you for having me it's certainly been an interesting year in 2020 and sentiment is positive. this year was dominated, as you mentioned, by the nasdaq, by companies that trade at insane multipl multiples, companies that in some cases aren't even profitable so i think 2021 is going to be a return to value. i think there will be a big focus on earnings, a big focus on stocks that trade at a low multiple and big focus on difd depds. there's a handful of stocks trading at 3%, 4% dividend yields and i think those stocks

will be attractive in 2021 >> feel free to name them. >> yeah, so there's a couple stocks that really missed the party. v verizon is one they have not performed this year it has a 4.1% dividend yield trades at a pe multiple that's 11 or 12 times next year's earnings another is bristol-myers squibb. it's a company that this year a lot of the companies that were really focused on covid-19 vaccines have been in focus. bmy is not in that space but they have profitable drugs and a pretty good development pipeline ahead of them and their stock has a 4% dividend yield. they're only paying out 25% of dif ends and earnings. look at some of the smaller regional banks i like regions financial the banks have been a sore spot in 2020. largely because of their commercial loans the fact that a lot of small businesses are closing

so, i think that now that we've got a reopening trade, these regional banks look a lot more interesting. regions trades at less than book value. you're paying 0.9 times their book value >> you almost take it for granted with financials. why would i pay above book bob, i know boeing is one of your picks that and a couple others that pop up on your screen. you know, why are -- make the case for those being places that investors should turn now. >> well, the economy is going to grow next year but uts not going to go to 4%, 5% typical expansion growth in gdp. the economy is going to grow somewhere between 3% 3-plus percent next year because of the damage that's been done in 2020. i think you have to sort of barbell your portfolio you have to have an overweight to things like technology and consumer discretionary people are going to continue to spend. people are going to continue to look for growth.

they're not going to continue to switch to value like everybody is saying because the growth is not going to be there. there's going to be fits and starts next year the first part of the year you'll see the strength in the second quarter, then into the third quarter then we'll see concern that the vaccine is not getting out fast enough. people aren't taking their second shots then a realization that growth is there and then we'll have a good quarter the rest of the year then have you to look at what's going to happen? there will be growth in industrials and basic materials. boeing fits into the industrial trade. the stock is going to earn $13.50 in 2023 so, if you equate that to what happened in '17, the stock will go from about 199, my buy entry point to about $300. that's a very decent return. 50%. so there's another name in basic material i like is nucore, steel

company. they per season fi value trades at about 14 times the stock will see its earnings grow about 14% revenue, 20% they pay 3.1% dividend yield and the company definitely covers it with the free cash flow >> well, we have to move along i love the enthusiasm. as you say, boelg will earn $13.50 in 2023 come on. >> you bet -- they just had on "fast money" everybody's booking on -- booking, all the airline companies. well, these people are going to have to fly on something all these planes have been parked out in the desert or runway companies are going to look for cheaper ways to get people from "a" to "b". >> $13.50 in 2023. and maybe they will. guys, thank you both for coming on today talk about how to play these in the new year

as we head into the new year, first up on the docket are tuesday's senate runoff races in georgia. incumbent republican senators david perdue and kelly loeffler are hoping to defend off jon ossoff and raphael warnock for senate for more is tony fradow and former white house press secretary under george w. bush and a cnbc contributor tony, it's good to see you let me just start with, what is the latest, whether you want to call it odds, thinking, the whispers, about what's going to happen on tuesday. i saw some pretty big lines in georgia today. >> obviously, the early voting is another theme down there we'll see. i think it's closing i think tomorrow is the last day for early voting down there. every poll you look at says this is a tossup, within the margin of error it's a real repeat of the november 3rd election. i think a lot of people were

expecting democratic turnout to overperform in november. i think what we learned was that republican turnout performed very well. i think both parties did an amazing job of turnouts, they had huge turnout in early voting, absentee and on election day. i think you'll see the accumulation of that today and it's going to be a very close race the turnout -- it's a function of money this is the most expensive election in the history of mankind. there's never been anything like this literally hundreds of millions of dollars being spent down there. because there was some under prepare tags of republican turnout, today my expectation is it's probably a slight lean for perdue and loeffler, the two republican candidates, but, you know, these are guesses at this point, kelly >> yeah. we've got so much at stake as well it is interesting to me we don't see the markets moving more on whatever you call it, the polls,

the odds maybe because the polls are untrustworthy. maybe it's a straight-up tossup and we have to wait until we see the outcome. but a democratic or republican controlled senate would make a big difference, covid and a host of other issues. democrat control of now the presidency and the senate would be much more significant than if it's split, right? >> very much so. we have an example of that in live time this week, even with the $2,000 top off in the covid relief bill. there's no question, even if republican -- if democrats had control of the senate, you would see that $2,000 top-off on the florida today. the majority leader of the senate is able to control what goes on the floor and in what ways it goes on the floor. and so leader mcconnell chose to pair it with some other pieces of legislation that democrats aren't going to want to vote for. controlling the floor is super

important. it will change the ambitions, i think, for democrats if they have control of both houses, even if they're razor thin margins. i think you'll see the progressive wing get a lot more ambitious on the kinds of things they want to do and the kind of things they're talking about, especially in the area of energy, climate, tax policy, health care, and a few other areas. but the fact they're razor thin in both houses, though, it probably is moderating it brings these moderates in both the democrat and republican party to the floor they're going to be the difference-makers. >> i take your point i think that must be what investors are thinking it's just different shades of purple the final thing i wanted to ask you is about senator hawley being one of the latest people to say he'll contest the electoral college vote reading in the journal trying to follow different scenarios, they're explaining this could be

a situation in which if a senator and a congressman in a particular state contest it, then the whole chamber gets on vote on it or somehow the vice president could become the deciding vote. there's a lot of twists and turns potentially here i'm curious what you think is really going on. is this hawley positioning for 2024 does it have anything to do with georgia? >> i don't think it has so much to do with georgia i think it is this race to see who will inherit this bloc of trump voters that we see and and we saw again on november 3rd it's a very doorable set of voters so, the trump vote is big. it does control the republican party, if it isn't, in fact, the republican party right now and i think you'll see people like ted cruz, josh hawley and others to see who will inherit

that vote. i think it leads them to do some really dumb things this is one of them. there is nothing that's going to change on tuesday with the electoral college -- >> but could it, tony? if hawley -- if enough people -- like you said, this is a huge base that is up for grabs. and it would make sense for them to say, listen, we're coming to kind of take the leadership position here. so, could that throw a last-minute wrench into the works? >> i think it's just going to be a debate -- a day of debate on that i think the votes will be there to certify the election. i think you have enough members, including, you know, leader mcconnell. you saw a statement out by nebraska senator ben sasse today, you know, which i think he was speaking for the senate republican caucus today with his statement that this is grandstanding and it's not a direction we should go i think that's where a majority

of senate republicans are. >> we'll see it's very interesting. tony, thanks so much good to see you today. coming up, a new covid variant is spreading in the u.s. we have new highs for hospitalizations and deaths. the vaccine rollout is moving incredibly slow. we'll get the latest on where things stand plus, we'll speak with the president of one company that helps hospital and vaccine manufacturers with logistics what does he think could be done to speed things up a look at where that could lead in the new year with chips see yourself. welcome back to the mirror. and know you're not alone because this. come on jessie one more. is the reflection of an unstoppable community in the mirror. see every delivery...

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welcome back to "the exchange." california is reporting its first covid variant on the heels of colorado yesterday. covid cases continue to climb across the country with more than 229,000 new cases yesterday. here's a look at the seven-day averages of three of the hardest hit states they're once again in the northeast. new york's hospitalizations have climbed 15%. cases up 4%. connecticut hospitalizations up 3%, the positivity rate is 6%. in massachusetts hospitalizations are up 11% and the positivity is just over 7% all this, of course, as the

pfizer and moderna vaccines are slowly being administered. just over 2 million americans have received the shot so far. that's far short of earlier forecasts of having 20 million americans vaccinated by now. joining me is dr. john torres to talk about these efforts and what can be done to speed up the progress at this point should we do what the uk is going to be doing with the next vaccine and start at least trying to get the first dose to more people instead of worrying about the double dose right away >> and right now at this point, a lot of experts are saying, we shouldn't be doing that mainly because we don't know how much protection that first dose gave you. pfizer said, we think it's around 52% and seemed to last 22 days but we didn't study beyond that we do know the double dose gives you 95% protection and that can last well into a couple of months at this point, giving two people two shots because we're giving

them to the most vulnerable and those moek likely to catch covid is a first step. other countries are doing mass vaccination events across the country, which we're not doing here yet i think we're going to get to that point and i think you'll see it in january or mid-january or late january. so, you're getting it distributed is one thing but getting shots in arms is that one step we need to make sure we're doing in order to get people protected, kelly. >>. >> it's interesting. so, we're at a point where those efforts are lagging. the case count is up we have the new variant. what do we know about the new variant? it was interesting that part of the reason the uk picked up on it so early is they just do more -- i think it's genetic testing or sequencing of covid than we do by a multiple times over it's just another place in which we're kind of lagging. so it's quite possible that's been here in this country already. >> it's definitely possible it's

been in the country already. to a certain extent, closing out the uk and making sure people aren't traveling to other places is kind of like closing the barn door once the horses have gotten out. i'm in colorado, the place it was first detected it about 30 miles away from me it's an assisted living center they don't travel. dh means it came from the community. we're not surveying enough to understand where these variants might be they're doing that in the uk now, there is a distinction. people are getting these pcr tests. that's the nasal swab. that tells them whether they have covid but it doesn't tell you the variant. they need to do much more sophisticated testing and they need to take a certain sample, maybe half percent of those people and look to see if that might be happening in the communities. we're not there yet. they're trying to gin that up but we're a year into this pandemic and we still haven't gotten to that point, which is concerning >> where are we going to be in another two to three weeks' time what is fundamentally going to

change to speed up the vaccination effort >> well, i think you'll see, in be one, the wrinkles being ironed out of the vaccination distribution like your graphic mentioned, you know, they expect 20 million distributed by now only less than 3 million people have actually got the vaccines if you listen to operation warp speed, they talk about vaccines that were distributed, not shots in arms. we need to make sure we get that good pace up there you have a graphic there for what's going on now. we need much higher pacing than that in order to get people vaccinated some experts say if we don't speed things up, some people are talking fall before we get people vaccinated but other experts say we think this will change over the next couple of weeks and administrations will change and a much bigger effort to push vaccines out. >> we hope so. don't want it to be all year again. dr. torres, thanks for your time we appreciate it >> thank you happy new year. let's get more on the logistics of administering the new covid vaccines

mike alchyer is president of premiere, they work with vaccine makers, hospitals and other health care systems. mike, thanks for joining us. you see very much what we're talking about here in terms of the rollout and some of the issues with it what do you think people need to do to improve the outcome? >> thanks, first, kelly, for having me. so, it's kind of interesting the numbers that we've all been seeing is we've had about 2.5 million folks vaccinated since december 14th. we've distributed about 11.5 million doses of the vaccine there seems to be, obviously, a disconnect between it being distributed to the states and then actually being implemented into the patients. we think, quite frankly, we have to do a better job of bringing more capability online, meaning we have to improve the communication between the public

health officials and the states and the caregives who are actualactual actually getting the vaccines. let's make that cleaner. secondarily, if you think just about pure numbers, so if we've done about 2.5 million vaccines, over the last couple of weeks, that means we're doing somewhere around 200,000 a day we know we're bringing on 200 million vaccines in the first quarter. 200 million doses of the vaccine in the first quarter that means we have to figure out a way to ramp up to doing 2 million, almost ten times the amount of vaccines that are actually being implemented today. we have to figure out a way to do that in the future. i've been on calls with various executives of health care systems, and quite frankly, they think we need to also bring the cvss and walmarts and the walgreens into the picture to help with dispensing the vaccine as well. >> absolutely. i mean, so people get the scope of the challenges here, you have

a five-point plan. you just mentioned some lmgts of it i look at supply chain issues, the transparency stuff you mentioned, diversifying production, you know, and all of these different things, mike, there's no way we can speed this up in the near term. >> a couple things that's more broadly as we think about the supply chain we have this big issue in 2021, but if you look back in 2020 and what kind of got us here, you hit a few of them. one of the things is from an fda perspective, we need to have much better transparency on just supplies in general, and generic drugs in general are being produced with we have way too much dependent on china and other places in southeast asia we have to diversify the production of those products to other areas, do more domestic manufacturing of those products. and we've got to use technology more effectively

so, to understand where we have potentially shortages that are occurring and become hypervigilant to identify those shortages and, then, obviously increase production to make sure our citizens have access to products >> and to your point, it's not as if wehave to do all of thes things overnight, but certainly even figuring out how to distribute this more quickly is going to be a big, big effort. thank you for your time and telling us how big these challenges run coming this stock is having a rough week down more than 30% down double digits today one short seller is calling its product outdated we'll reveal the name next a look at ctseor winners and losers this year and the stocks that carried and crushes them. back in a couple of minutes. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth. glitchy video calls with regional offices?

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welcome back let's get a quick check on your markets. pretty narrow range to close out what has not been a narrowle range this year. dow town four points nasdaq is down 28. in terms of the sectors, it's pretty mixed financials are leading the way, up 0.50% energy is lagging, as has been much of the story this year, down 1%. some individual movers include shares of fubo, which is sliding after carousel capital became the first to short the stock carousel describing fubo's tv distribution model is outdated and saying the company's

business model is structurally unprofitable it's down 17% today. now down 35% this week on the flip side, shares of western digital are soaring today. no particular news, but traders are saying investors could just be piling into the chipmaker into the end of the year you often see this little chase year end it's up 11% today and more than 20% this month and another day, another fresh high for bitcoin, crossing above $29,300 before reversing lower yeah, we're about 600 points off that level right now let's get to morgan brennan for a krnsz news update. >> happy new year. take a look at this. these are those voting lines in georgia. they look like the ones you discussed earlier. more than 100 people standing in the rain outside this poll willing side in cobb county. today is the last day of early voting ahead of tuesday's senate runoff. target is recalling nearly half a million infant items that could choke or pinch a baby because of potentially faulty

snaps and 180,000 cat and jack swimsuits and island rompers president trump is flying back to washington he has ended his vacation one day earlier. jimmy lai is back in custody. he will remain behind bars until at least february on charges of fraud and endangering national security that is your cnbc news update at this hour. kelly, if i had one new year's resolution, it's that we start ending these news updates on a positive note because i think everybody could use a little more cheer as we head into 2021. am i right >> i was -- i thought you were going to say on a star trek note i was going to say, huh-uh. >> i'll save that for next year. >> thank you so much happy new year let's take a look at some of the standout sectors this year

it should come as no surprise that technology led the way. it was up 40% in 2020 followed by consumer discretionary and communication services you can see all the chips showing the year-to-date gains on the losing side, energy down 37%. and look at the second worst in real estate was only down 6.5% the financials down 5% as for who is powering these moves, in tech, nvidia, paypal, amd, they all led the way. xerox the biggest laggard. tesla up 750% this year. norwegian and carnival, no surprise, they were the worst. and in energy, there were no names that ended in the green this year. while occidental and marathon were the worst performers with declines of more than 50%. still ahead, the depart of the new stimulus bill that could save the craft distilling industry. first, mike santoli and

steve liesman tell us their key moments for the markets and the fed this year and the catalyst 1.ey're watching for 202 stay with us chnology is a leading education technology company in china it creates a more efficient, effective, and engaging personalized education experience for teachers, students, and parents. we are so honored to have 17 education & technology join the greatest new economy companies on nasdaq to make the world a better place.

welcome back 2020 was unconventional by any stretch. that includes what we saw from the markets and the federal reserve. steve liesman and mike san tetoy had front row seat i love this question for both of you and we mentioned it with rick earlier, but, steef, what was the most significant moment for the fed this year? >> look, kelly, you know, you would think it was the fed going to zero, announcing a new round of massive asset purchases that would be the highlight. those were obviously huge but they had already been done in the last recession the real new ground, the game-changing decisions that will last the oneses to buy corporate bonds and municipal bonds and loans to individual corpses where the fed had never gone before. i remember a speech where boston fed president detailed the fed's next move when if they had to offer stimulus

this was on march 6th. in such a case we should allow the central bank to purchase a broader range of securities or assets that was like a week or two before the fed eventually went to zero and a few months before it did that. the fed venturing into new territories of buying corporate bonds. santoly will talk about that by eliminating risks and reducing spreads, even though the fed ended up buying very little but it brought the central bank into the area it may regret because of the political implications you saw that just recently in the fight over the latest round of stimulus where senator pat toomey moved to limit the fed's ability to do that type of lending again. the incoming administration argued, hey, we should have the same flexibility as the previous one. i think a debate over how far the fed can go will be a feature of every recession from now on, kelly. >> i love that you picked the eric rosengren moment. we asked you and mike this question separately, and you

both put your finger on the exact same thing stay right there, mike >> i didn't know that. i didn't know that >> oh, yeah. mike, tell us what you think the most significant or dramatic moment was >> the specific moment that i point to is boeing's debt offering of april 30th so, march 23rd, after the rosengren comments, of course the fed did come out and more or less say, we will buy a full range of assets, when boeing was able to sell $25 billion in new debt to private investors, oversubscribed at lower yields than expected, the stock market was already up about 20%, 25% from its lows but the big question, is that just a dead cap bounce can corporate america avoid a default spiral i think that bond offering from boeing told people, boeing of all companies, right, not just grounded by the pandemic, but even previously having its struggles. i think it told you the capital markets were open, bond spreads came way down, the credit markets supported equity

evaluations this entire run we've had up to these highs and the stock market never looked back a few days later, just slightly curled lower and we're up about 1,000 points on the s&p then. >> mike -- >> there you have it -- go ahead, steve >> i was just going to ask mike if he thinks he would be a little balding, have his hair down to his shoulders, have his tie off and be in a very different reporting right now about the market this year if the fed hadn't stepped in and did what it did? >> you would think so. before that happened, and before the market fully embraced it -- people were using 2008 as a template here. they were saying, fine, maybe this is the first leg down and then the painful grind comes and the real economy struggles and sputters and does not come off the mat for a while. that didn't happen i totally agree with you that the way the policymakers short-circuited this recession, made it a flash recession in a way, at least in terms of the

financial market perception of it it's going to create this template down the road this is in the tool box. why aren't we using it >> 100%. so, for all of the people who say this now means this is a fed we can count on to basically do anything it can dream up to combat future downturns, what do you say about that separately the real question for 2021 is how do they start to taper and exit all of this both of those are going to be very tricky issues >> i'll say very quickly i didn't agree with senator toomey did on the short-term basis. i think it was doing some good i think he might have done the fed some long-term good here i don't think it's good forthe fed to be in this position of being the one the fiscal authority turns to be the swing factor here. i think this ought to be something, if bonds need to be bought, if stuff needs to be done, the treasury ought to do

it and they could really involve the federal reserve. i think as far as the fed should go is buying treasuries, i think that's enough. what you don't want is for a central bank to be in that position of being the political football there and the swing factor and then have to be between this administration and that administration and this party and that party >> yeah. mike, i'll give you a final word as people look to 2021, and rick alluded to this earlier, but are we going to be talking about the fed's exit as a big market risk or is that something that kind of gets punted and status quo and the larger message the fed in the investor's corner is the predominant one? >> i think that question is farther down the line than it otherwise it would would be. it does set up a little war of perceptions. the fed is not going to be the one that changes the conversation to an exit, i don't think. it's going to be about whether the market overheats, if the economy comes back faster than anticipated and you get some statistical lift in inflation

ratings, is the market then going to sort of overanticipate the fed is going to come off this stance of saying, we're not even thinking about changing policy and if they, in fact, get persuaded by the fed that, hey, guys, we're going to let things roll, what does that mean for markets? what kind of overheaps from this starting point would we expect if, in fact, that's what happens. >> financial stanlbility, those euphemisms come into the equation, maybe. thank you both >> happy new year, everybody still ahead, the semiconductor etf posting gains of more than 54. this year and set to take center stage in the ongoing tech rivalry between the u.s. and china. those details and the steps we have planned to take to win the battle, she said, that's next.

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welcome back take a look at the semiconductor eft, up 120% chips are quickly becoming the focus in the ongoing tech war between the u.s. and china as well josh lipton joins us with that story. josh >> the u.s./china tech rivalry is red hot right now chips are front and center in that battle. and for good reason. they are the big brains in our smartphones, our pcs and data centers as well as next generation technologies that we care a lot about powering 5g, ai and facial recognition. so, where are chips being made right now? well, some american firms still make chips in the united states. like intel, micron and texas instruments, but today only about 12% of chips are now produced within this country and that is down sharply over the past couple of decades and expected to slip even over the next decade. china share, 15% it's expected to grow strongly over the next ten years, thanks

to heavy government subsidies. taiwan's share, by the way, 22%. that's mostly tsmc i checked in with tech analyst patrick moorehead and he says shifting production here could bring real physical advantages, physical security. the u.s. government wants to make american companies have access to the chips they need. if they're built here, they have that cyber security, chips built overseas could be easier to compromise and hack and preventing ip theft. if chips are made closer to our adversaries, so the thinking goes, there's higher risk of theft. earlier this year there was an important announcement on this front. tsmc saying it's going to built an advanced $12 billion chip factory in arizona construction will start next year, production beginning in 2024 the facility will utilize tsmc's 5 nanometer technology, developing the most powerful and efficient chips out there. kelly, back to you >> it's hard to say whether

developing more of our vaccine and pharma infrastructure or the chip supply is the more pressing buttist certainly up there josh lipton with the state of play. still ahead, check out this mystery chart. this retailer getting hammered at the start of the pandemic in the u.s. but here it's up 173% from 52-week low we'll dig into the rebound in consumer names and if there's more room to run. another segment of discretionary getting slammed this year. craft distillers losing $700 million in sales we'll talk to the president of mickter's distillers ♪ chocolate, peanut butter, cookie dough! ♪ ♪ scoop! there it is! ♪ scoop! there it is! ♪ scoop! there it is! ♪ scoop! there it is! scoop! ♪ ♪ shaka-laka! shaka-laka! ♪ shaka-laka! shaka! scoop!. ♪ ♪ choco-laka! choco-laka!... geico. switch today and see all the ways you could save. ♪ sprinkles!

welcome back to "the exchange." in many ways 2020 was the year of the consumer. consumer spending has been one of the bright spots in this recovery, following a massive decline in the spring. while november retail sales were down for the month, it was the sixth monthly year-on-year gain. >> when you look at what they're spending year to date, they've spent more in 2020 than they did in 2019 and that is now across $2.7 trillion of money moved by

our consumers. >> the optimism is clear in the market with the retail etf up 40% this year with names like w wayfair, stitch fix and we've seen a bit of a slow down recently with consumer confidence dipping in the past few months as covid cases rise again and some cities close parts of their economy again people are hoping washington's new stimulus funds will turn that around. it's been a tough year for kraft distillers, the industry moving more than a billion dollars because of the pandemic. but there are some bright spots. take a look at these overall sales are up 30% mitcher's distillery is that right, you're up 30%

this year? >> actually we're up 36% thank you so much for having me on, kelly. our team in louisville and our sales team did a great job this year i think a lot other people have done a great job this year as well i honestly can never remember nearly as challenging a year it's been devastating. kraft distillery have furloughed 43% of their people. the american distilling institute did a survey and something like two-thirds distillers thought they couldn't keep going unless things improved a lot it's been a tough year especially for the on-premise sector in our industry we talk about the on-premise channels, restaurant, bars, hotels it's just been devastating for our friends that we've been calling on for years in that area up kn you know, nielsen tracks the

business between february and march this year, it was down 80% and quite honestly that doesn't surprise us because we've seen a tremendous loss attributed to imports that we seem to have lost 80% of the business >> how do we go from being down 80% on premise to being um 36% on the year. is that hutch people are drinking at home >> people are generally drinking more at hope but it is not enough to make up for the tremendous loss. i mean, we've had all these amazing restaurants close. online has really been in the area that we've concentrated on this year. we're not a huge company never had an e-commerce manager until this year we suddenly have an e-commerce manager, suddenly had an e-commerce team when you look at online sales,

according to international spirits and wine registrieregisn sales are up wa wally's based in los angeles are up we concentrated on making our stuff more available to e-commerce platforms like amazon and a lot of others. >> i learned about drizzly you're right, these have been huge platforms and thank god for it because otherwise your business would have been devastated what does 2021 look like in this kind of pivot and transition year i know you guys also were able to avoid a huge excise tax that was supposed to go up january 1. that's off the table, right? >> fortunately and that is really wonderful news to smaller distillers you know, the tax level varpys at different levels of production, but under 100,000

proof gallons, which is where a lot of small distillers are, the tax was set to go up effective january 1, was going to go up 400% that would have been really devastating to these smaller distilleries that would be hurt very badly look, we're very hopeful about the vaccine, we're hopeful about things improving and, you know, business coming back to normal >> yeah. and again, you're now able to handle it either way it seems make that's been a nice learning point of 2020, we're looking for some bright spots today. joe, thanks so much for joining us and good luck with everything >> thank you so much, kelly. happy, healthy new year. >> you, too. >> all right that does it for us on "the exchange" this year. up next on "power lunch," we'll get a look at whether 2021 will see the same kind of action. i'll join frank collins for that right after this quick break

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humana, a more human way to healthcare. welcome back, everybody. i'm kelly evans. two hours of trading or less in this very eventful year of the market disney one of the big drivers of the dow's gains this