>> my resolution has to do with new york city because i just returned back after being away for a while. there's been a lot of dim and gloom. my resolution is to support the city however we can in the new year restaurants, small businesses and retail charities, so much of it because a lot of people are moving out and companies are rethinking it. my other resolution is to do the show next year with you guys in person. >> yep. >> would be the the first time since march. it's been a while. it would be great to be back together, and with that, that's it for us on "closing bell," happy new year, everyone here's to a healthy and happy one, "fast money" begins now >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. happy new year's eve, everybody. trader lineup for the final show of the year, brian kelly, mike cohen, james mcdonald. it may be new year's eve, but times square looks a lot different from what we're used to we'll talk to the ceo of one restaurant group that used to be at the center of the action about how he's had to reset his plans and his outlook for the industry and a look at a couple of names that are setting up for a

big year ahead plus, the general is winding up for a fast pitch, why he thinks this bio tech stock is ready for a big bounce. one more super sized edition of "fast money" coming your way. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. another set of records, the s&p closing the year at an all time high for the first time since 2013 the index up 16% on the year most of 2020's games coming from a trio of stocks, amazon, apple and microsoft. they are responsible for 57% of the market rise. eye popping return, tesla up 743%, peloton up 434%. zoom up almost 400 % as we end the year on a very high note, we thought we'd make some predictions for 2021. we wondered what themes and trends would set the stage for the new year jeff mills, your prediction for the new year

>> so my line for next year is bigger isn't necessarily better, and i think it really hinges on a few different things, and the first one is that i think for the first time in a long time, you're going to have stimulus and fundamental growth rowing in the same direction i think that's really important. look at a lot of different indicators i like to look at pmi. i think there's evidence of pentup demand. new orders, that has gone up a lot. that's usually a good indicator of rising s&p earnings i hate to say this every time i say it, but i'm going to say it again. maybe the most important thing is the annual increase in m1 money supply for the past 50 years we've been trading in this range of 20% increase to about a 10% degrees. in 2020, m1 money supply increased by almost 70%. >> wow. >> again, i hate to say it but maybe that's all that matters in

terms of what's going to drive this market. when you take that in combination with some of the improvement i think we're going to see on the fundamental side, i do think it creates this post-recession market pattern that we're used to and to my point regarding my opening line, i think that leads to a number of different things, one of which is relative outperformance from small caps i know flows have been aggressive into the asset class lately but i do think the kind of momentum we've seen is actually a good thing from longer term for returns. i would play it in a very specific way i know iwm is what everybody looks to i would look to sly here sly is actually just breaking out to the upside. it only has 11% in health care versus 20% in iwm. less exposure to some of those unprofitable biotechs. 19 times 4 for sly versus 30 times 4 for iwm. we want to play small cap actively and passively if you're going to play it pactively, choose sly.

>> the fed is going to be a powerful force in the new year mike khouw, would you at least agree with that part, and what do you think of jeff's way of applying small caps? >> yeah, well, i think he's hitting on one of the most important elements which of course is that with monetary policy being what it's been, it's very hard, i mean, we say it again and again, and of course we continue to see plenty of evidence of it, but you don't fight central banks. when you see the monetary supply increase in the way it has done, you know, it's pretty tough to sell risk assets, right? despite the valuations and i know a lot of people have expressed considerable concern about that, think about the last time we saw a material selloff that was unrelated, obviously, to things like the pandemic, you know, i'm thinking mostly of things like q4 2018 that was concerns about decreases in central bank balance sheets. absent anything like that i wouldn't expect any kind of a material pullback. the other thing we should be

taking a look at is think about rotating into things that haven't seen so much strength that we have seen towards the end of this year so that could be the kind of rotation that i would look towards. >> and we'll get to mike's prediction in a moment we want to go to bk, and i mean, i could have been blindfolded and i could have guess thd oed one right. bitcoin, this dovetails with what jeff was saying about liquidity. >> and that's exactly it, jeff hit the nail on the head i don't care what asset class it is in the middle of march if you told me we were going to be at all-time highs in almost every single risk asset class, i think a lot of people would have thought that you were crazy, you know, and what happened was every central bank in the world decided to flood the market with money. that's the only lever they have at the poll. that's what they did now going into '21, ask yourself, is that going to stop? i think the answer is absolutely not. look what happened in 2018 when they tried to reduce balance sheets, it's not going to work they're not going to do it, so

now i have every single central bank expanding the supply of the product they have, their quantitative easing, and now i've got this asset class over here that is quantitative tightening, the supply is declining or the daily supply is declining. it has a better stock to flow ratio than gold, and it's got kind of this upside kicker as a startup. and incidentally, you know, we joke about bitcoin it is my single favorite investment, but think about what it's done in the last ten years. it is the most successful startup of this century without a ceo, without a marketing department, without a head headquarters, and everybody can get in you don't have to get into a vc fund so to me that in and of itself is a new story, whether bitcoin works or not, but i do think the environment that we're in, the economic environment is very, very good for bitcoin. >> james, you've been a bear on the markets, but you've been a bull on bitcoin. >> well, bitcoin is hard to

argue, especially when you cite the statistics of its upward trajectory over any time period really but it's a unicorn, and the rest of the world has to pay attention to the stock market and understand where the stock market has come and where the stock market can go, and my perspective of this is a little broader than 2020. if we look at what happened from march 2009 up until last year at this time, it was the strongest bull market in history by far, literally the longest and highest running stock market on record, and then we had covid hit. without covid, the stock market needed a pause with covid we had a rapid descent, 30 to 40% decline in the big indexes and then the real anomaly came. a snap back that has taken us to a market valuation that was even higher during the pandemic, and where we sit today, we are literally at levels that have only been touched prior to the biggest market crashes in history and so my bear suit with logic of we've been here before

and we saw a pullback, this is probably imminent. in the last two weeks we saw the biggest inflow in the global stocks ever, $75 billion over a two-week rolling average the goldman sachs sentiment indicator is 1.9 it's a new all time high 62% of respondents to this survey think that the market will move another 10% higher and the s&p short interest continues to plummet if you just look at the s&p 500 chart over a ten-year period, you'll see this anomaly that's happened since march, but we've gone literally straight up relative to relative to history. it's not sustainable, and i do think it's almost imminent we're going to see a pullback. it doesn't mean the whole world is going to come crashing down it doesn't mean that the market is going to go down forever. it means the trajectory we've had over the recent short-term, not only is it unprecedented, it blows away anything close. >> we've had you on the show for a few months now, and you've been saying this the whole time. we get a lot of tweets, believe

me i'm sure you get them too. how can this guy stick by this bearish prediction and keep seeing the records fly into his face so what do you say to them >> i say if they shorted the market six months or 12 months before the 2007 crash, they would have made money. if they shorted the market six months or 12 months before the 2001 crash, they would have made money, and i would tell them if shay sho they shorted the market six months, before the 1991 crash they would have made money i am looking at a time frame of going back to q1 2016 levels this sisn't calling for the sky to fall. this is just where we are, and timing is really tricky. as we look at the market here, simply it's never been done before it's a callout that it's over valued i don't think it's an understatement, and people will continue to chase the highs. >> well, jeff, i don't know how you feel about james's prediction markets over valued and at risk, those are two separate thoughts.

you can still believe the markets are over valued but believe this goes on for a while, precisely for the theme that you outlined, and that is the expansion of monetary policy and the fed's easy policy right now, interest rate policy. >> yeah, no question, and you know, we were here before earlier in the year, but we had a global pandemic that took the market down. to james's point, we've had a rip roaring recovery since then. it's difficult for risk assets to stay down, especially in the stock market when you have the liquidity backdrop that we do. i think i've cited this statistic before when you have 70-plus percent of large investors, there's that gravitational pull to the stock market you can get these violent drawdowns because valuations are high, but it's likely they're not going to last very long because of the environment we're in from a policy perspective there's no doubt that the market's expensive, and i think valuation does still matter. i think it matters over the very long-term. so fun thing about what forward

returns look like today out over the next decade, i think it's hard to argue they're not going to be significantly below average. i think using the valuation timetable given the setup in '21 i don't think that is what's going to drive the market lower. >> and the flip side, if you are looking for value in this market, mike khouw we've got your prediction. >> yeah, i think actually we're starting to see some rotation into the sector that i like already, and we've been seeing it over the course of this last quarter. that's financials. this is one of the areas that's kind of been dead money for several years, certainly it has been relative to the hot performing sectors and certainly it has been relative to the best performing stocks, many of which we've already heard over the course of the last hour or so, but probably don't need to be mentioned again. i will, things like tesla, names like that when on a valuation basis you might feel are extended you compare that and contrast it with names like morgan stanley which is certainly not a rich stock. it's not a rich stock from a historical perspective, it's not a rich stock compared to the market of course these are companies

whose financial results are going to be hinged in part on the basis of things like rising asset prices they have a big asset management business they get paid on the size of the assets they are managing fundamentally the business seems like it's in pretty good shape as long as we don't see things like an inversion of the yield curve, of course if they're going to keep short end of the conservative depressed that obviously is good. and of course if we do see some kind of reemergence of economic activity in areas like industrials and so on, that could be good for the commercial banking side as well it's one of the few places you can look at the market jamgs james is right, some of the valuations we're looking at across equities are for many of us pretty unprecedented unless we go back to the 2000 tech bubble, but financials is not one of these areas it's certainly one of the ones i like. >> the markets can be over valued and the markets can be at risk, but that doesn't mean there aren't pockets of value or

opportunity out there, so brian in terms of financials where would you go >> i actually like -- i like the money manager so you want to talk mor beggan stanley, they've gotten lumped in with the rest of the banks, but the biggest part of their business is if asset prices go higher, they're going to benefit from that so they've kind of gotten lumped in and their valuations are lower than they otherwise would be in a market which valuation is -- we can all say it's high and again, this can go higher. we have the largest unprecedented monetary policy in history, it would stand to reason that that would blow the largest financial bubble in history. so we may have a lot more room to go. i don't know but i do like in the financials, i would stick with the money managers. >> all right our next guest sees three stocks getting ready for takeoff in the new year let's go off the chart with president of blue line capital bill, walk us through what you

see. >> thank you, happy new year, melissa. thanks for having me on. the three facts i'm looking at, and i'm take ting this from a viewpoint that my job as a portfolio manager isn't to create wealth but add value and preserve wealth, so let's start off with chewy here. chewy had a meteoric rise, sort of a covid stock it's taken a big hit in the lats week we've seen a will the of air come out after the reopening, coming out of lockdowns, the vaccine news really this stock i think is here for the long run, and it's coming into an area of value i love being long this stock, as low as 75 wbucks, anywhere from here down to 75 i think there's tremendous support revolutionizing how you're going to take care of your dog and the medicine's even much cheaper coming from there, too so that's a big support level, and i think there's, again, it's going to respond to those initial highs.

the next stock is salesforce. it's a stock that i really love, and i think it needs to be in your portfolio the slack acquisition really hurt it over the past month, but ultimately i think you're going to see it come out of there. it's a great acquisition i use slack with my company. i love the software there, and the soft quarter 4 guidance could open the door for a really well performance coming into the first half of next year. i think that is really a great way to look at it, and then you have the technical support here at 220 this is a 382 retracement, covered in the 382 retramt as well with chewy, that's a big area as well you have the gap from the august 28th preearnings close, so a lot of support in there. even if it gets down in the 50%, right around 200, that's a big round number a lot of support down there. as we diversify out a little bit, looking at dow incorporated

this has broken out above a trend line from where it was spun out it's been lingering around $55 right now. it is in a break line. you now have good support at 50, 52 as a rising trend line coming out of this wedge pattern. still hasn't made a new high from that spinout above 60 bucks. we still have some work to do there. you're getting a 5% dividend in this stock too that 5% dividend is a great way to diversify right now as you're looking to add value to a portfolio, but remember, infrastructure spending from the new administration, strong asian demand there's a good fundamental story behind this stock as well. >> heyin, bill, which of these stocks, if anything are supported by positive indicators on the charts for their industries >> well, i like the materials right now. i think this is really an undervalued sector, materials, industrials as well. industrials had a big move over the past say 30, 60 days but i think materials. you get a little inflation, infrastructure spending. you know, i think that is really

going to be a great sector that's going to perform through 2021, and a lot of value and good dividends >> all right, bill, great to see you. thank you. bill baruch. jeff mills, bill provided us with a menu of stocks that he says will blast off in the new year do you like any of these >> i like the dow call to our previous discussion about valuation, you don't want to buy the market with both hands kind of across the board, right i do think picking your spot is important when you're at the level you're at today. it fits with my theme of accelerating global growth in this recovery. i think it's interesting that you have 65 to 70% of revenues outside of the u.s it is a weak dollar beneficiary as well, and i agree on the chart. it looks like it wants to break above that 55 level, i think if it does it continues higher. >> i didn't really get chewy, brian kelly. you've got dogs. maybe you understand that story better this has benefitted from people

being at home. >> yeah, but i think it benefits from people going away because you want to make sure you treat your dog well, so if you indulge me a quick story, i saw a hilarious cartoon the other day, two panels, two friends commiserating 2020, worst year of my life cut to the other panel, their dogs saying 2020 best year of my life my human was around all the time i still think that if you're going back to work, you're going to want to make sure you treat your dog well. i know bk is, and i think, you know, like 75 bucks that's really good risk reward right there. you've had this run off, if you can get that back to the $75 level i think that's interesting. huge moves higher in a couple of chip stocks. what's behind the action. ready for takeoff, how high one austin trader thinks this airline etf can go before the end of q1. you're going to want to pay attention to this one. "fast money" is back in two. chwb can help me invest. this is andy reminding me

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welcome back chip maker western digital more than 11%, microsoft which reports quarterly numbers next tuesday and intel grabbing some big gains. let's dive into this sector. there was a report today on bloomberg saying that samsung and sk high nicks were going to

cut wback or keep capex on d ras stable, on a year on year basis it would look like a decline on capex spending what do you like in this space if anything? >> yeah, so obviously i'm going to look at it a little bit from an options perspective the options markets definitely were very bullish on western digital. we could see that in the increase in the share price. i think it was up more than 10% today, but a lot of these names also were a thing, some bullish activity going further out expecting basically today's rally to persist into the future western digital traded some multiple close to three or four times the average daily call volume, and this normally trades pretty good volume to begin with we're looking at 70 to 80,000 calls traded on western digital, bullish flow going out about 90 days or so we have some product cycle basically going on here. i think this is going to be

beneficial across the space. we're not really looking at this particular area necessarily today, the gpu makers and so on. we were talking about it yesterday, thing like nvidia and so on. i'm also very curious. i'm wondering whether other kind of chip companies like intel might actually get their mojo back they're probably going to need to do some pretty serious rethinking of their business and i think dan lobe is looking into that and trying to pressure them to do that and get focus back on engineering and making kinds of products that their customers actually want to buy i do think there is some potential continued strength in the space going into the new year. >> james, is intel going to be a turn around story in 2021? >> this is one of those monsters from the '90s and 2000s thchltd this is a company that's going to survive this process, but there's just so much more upside potential in these hot companies. western digital is also a bit of a turn around play its trajectory is mostly positive here, and what i like

about western digital is you're seeing even volume across the full last two quarters or as micron and intel also show peaks and valleys in terms of their volume, but i like the consistency behind western digital. i think this 10% pop that we saw today is somewhat of a clue, 11% actually, is somewhat of a clue in terms of where the money's going to go into this space. of the three i think western digital is a solid one. >> jeff, stick with what's working in chips where do you go for the turnaround potential >> i think you stick with what's working. i've been a little hesitant on intel. i like the idea of dan lobe being involved i think he takes a look at the business kind of redefining the r&d process and setting up that company for growth going forward. at the same time i think that could take some time, so i'd prefer to stick with what's working. i think just generally, i mentioned this last night investors still want growth here as much as i like that cyclical trade, i don't think growth's going to fall out of bed i just think it's growth at any price might fall out of bed.

i mentioned the new growth at a relatively reasonable price. i think semis are just that. if you look at the smh trading at 24 times earnings i like to stick with the momentum name. >> bk do you have a cartoon related reference to make in this discussion of chips >> yeah, i'll tell you what, so when bk goes and gets soft serve ice cream, he likes to get the swirl or the twist, and so in this case i think you can actually have all three. so your vanilla is your micron, that's your momentum trade where you're going to get the real flavor, the chocolate, and that's going to be intel all dan lobe has to do is figure out one little thing, the way the stock has traded in the low 40s for the last two years, one little thing will pop this i think up higher and that's your chocolate flavor how's that >> this in a cone or a cup >> oh, i personally like it in a cone with jimmys on top. >> jimmys, that would be sprinkles. jimmys is very regional. we're just getting started here

on "fast money." here's what's coming up next. >> it's been a big year for markets and a couple of stocks are leading the charge, but does that continue after the ball drops? we'll play one last round of trade it or fade it for 2020 to set you up for the new year. and later, ringing in the new area isyear is a lot differn it this time around. what it means for the hard hit restaurant industry as it looks to rebound in 2021 we've got that and a lot more when "fast money" returns. ♪ - [narrator] if you're thinking about going to school online, southern new hampshire university is where you belong. we've been online for more than 25 years and have helped thousands of students reach their goals. as a nonprofit university, we believe access to high quality education should be available to everyone. that's why we offer some of the lowest tuition rates in the nation, and haven't raised tuition in nearly a decade.

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welcome back helping the s&p climb the record at the end of the year tesla, disney, visa, take two, all of which hit all time highs in just the past 24 hours.

in true fast money fashion, we thought it would be a great time to play a little. >> trade it or fade it >> that's right, trade it or fade it, the game you know and you love, the final edition of the year tears come to my eye let's kick things off with tesla with a whopping 750% this year hitting another all time high today, brian kelly trade it or fade it? >> well, i tell you, nobody is going to blame you if you take some money off the table up 700% bk is going to trade it, which means buy it, i believe. i played this game a couple of times. the great thing about stocks at all time highs, everybody in it has a profit, so your supply response doesn't come for a bit. as well with tesla i still happen to think they've got a lot more room to grow, but it is not without risk elon musk is a genius, he's an eccentric genius, which means sometimes he does things that may be not great for the shareholder in the short-term. be aware of that

>> he had an interview with the ceo of axel springer, which is a publishing company, he actually talked about the possibility of buying another company you wouldn't do a hospital takeover but if a company said hey, we want to sell to you, he would say we'll take a look. elon musk was definitely out there very fascinating guy jeff mills, what do you say about tesla? >> so i'm going to fade it here. i mean, obviously the momentum is hard to ignore, but i'm going to plagiarize two of our esteemed fast money colleagues carter worth and dan mason first of all, from a technical perspective talked about this last night you've had this pop consolidati consolidation pattern over and over again i think this is the fourth or fifth time it's happened this year, so i think you're going to end up with a consolidation period over the next number of months, so you've probably got a lot of backing and filling around that 590 to 710 level i wouldn't necessarily be chasing the stock here higher. and also, at a $660 billion

market cap, it's greater than the entire global auto industry. it has just 1% market share, so not that fundamentals necessarily matter, but i don't understand the stock i haven't understood the stock i haven't bought it, and i'm not going to buy it here. all right, let's get to disney now, it is upjust 25% this year. what kind of year are we in, just 25%, mike, trade it or fade it >> yeah, disney, i'm going to trade this one, and actually, you know, one of the things that bk was just talking about, and this is a stock actually that all things considered considering how much their business has been hurt by what's going on, i mean, obviously the parks have been significantly impacted they have a cruise that's been significantly impacted you've got the movie theaters obviously, that's going to have some impact on that part of their business, and yet, the company has been doing pretty well disney plus i think was a really positive rollout it's kind of interesting to me you have this speck tltrum in t

streaming space between disney and the hbo max offerings, they're sort of bracketing it in terms of pricing i can say in our own household there's a lot of demand for the disney plus offerings. once you start to see some of those other businesses come back, that's one of the things that continue to support the stock. this historically has been one of the best performing companies over the long-term, and i think that could continue if they could just get back on track we'd get the pandemic behind us, so i think we would trade disney here >> disney is a great company, it's a great business. it's a great brand, but they depend on the economy being open if you look at the business itself, parks and products, which are 23% of revenue, they're taking massive hits, and that's not going away, and then if you look at the energy in the stock right now, the enthusiasm, it's about disney plus the streaming channel, the streaming channel benefits from the disney products we know the content is a good thing from netflix we know that disney's brand is

strong, but we also know from netflix that the tailwind from more people watching and checking in and driving action to that channel comes and goes, and so it's very possible that the disney plus phenomena fades when the next new thing comes in, and disney, they don't have a -- to support those businesses their international segment is 24% of revenue i think there's more downside potential risk than upside despite the great brand. >> let's get to visa up 16% this year, so back to you, james, trade or fade visa >> i'm going to have to fade visa, and you know, the thing with visa is it's got a monopoly in the online debit card services a market share of more than 70%. this is not good for business, though, the doj blocked its $5 billion acquisition, antitrust is a thing they face billion dollar payouts in the uk. the competition from mastercard and visa this is going to give pressure

over to eps over the next few years, and they reported a 23% drop in fourth quarter earnings. this is a big deal, and so i think that there's more pressure and risk around this stock than there is upside. just too big to succeed in this environment, i believe. >> you know, for me on visa, melissa, this is about digital payments i mean, one thing that the peck has done, it's really proved that digital payments are here to stay, whether it's, you know, on the fin tech space or whether it's something just as simple as your plastic credit card skprs fra and frankly, the u.s. is woefully behind the rest of the world in terms of fin financial technology and credit card technology, and i think visa stands right in the middle of this, and i don't think that this is going to change after the pandemic so just to make sure i keep up with the game, trade it. >> all right, very good, bk. finally, stay-at-home winner take two up nearly 70% this

year >> this is going to sound like a trade, but i'll get to the fade. i do think it's one of these companies that's going to grow they have the content slate, grand theft auto, they just signed a multiyear agreement with the nfl i think that first game is coming out next year they're growing into mobile, the social point acquisition they're going to do more m&a i just worry about 2021. you know, i think earnings are expected to be largely flat next year, and they're trading at 36 times forward. i think you can find better value in act vision and ea. >> i like take two it's kind of hard to bet against the theme. i take a look at what's going on in my own household, gta, nba, 2k, both of these are very popular here i expect that to continue. one of the things is when they have that kind of user engagement, all of these game makers have found good ways to sort of monetize that engagement it's not like it used to be where it's a sort of one-time thing and you wait for refresh

when i take a look at it, i think this is a real positive. gta is certainly an example of this if you take a look at the way that game is structured. i am a little bit concerned about the valuation as i am concerned about valuations generally, but the theme is working, and i think you stick with it. >> all right, so trade it. coming up, we've got one more bonus edition of "fast money," coming your way. you won't want to miss it. tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. the general is winding up for a fast pitch on one biotech name he thinks could be a home run. we'll tell you what it is right after this break. sales are down from last quarter

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welcome back we may be movannths from the baseball season, but the general is winding up to pitch one bio tech he thinks could be a home run in the new year. jeff, take it away. >> i'm on a little bit of a kick here where i'm doing some thematic pitches from lesser known stocks the theme is molecular medicine but it's the supply chain associated with molecular medicine some people might know the name, it's cryo port just because of covid and then the shipping that's required for that vaccine. this is a business that's at the center of gene editing and cell therapies and it's really going

to revolutionize the way that we treat so many different diseases i think in the 20th century it was antibiotics, this next frontier is going to be genomics right now you have 1,700 and growing gene cell therapies in different phases of clinical trials it's very difficult to pick the winners for those drugs. i think getting involved in the technology that facilitates the development and logistics is where you want to by that's exactly where cryo port comes in all of these treatments use live cells. they're very hard to ship. i think that's been well publicized now with the covid vaccine. i think this growth story is just getting started it's supporting 517 clinical trials themselves, and when these therapies file for fda approval cryoport is specified in the application it makes those customers very sticky the fda likes to see consistency, and they also have large customers like gilead, novartis, and the economics i think are really good. each new drug approval is $28 million of revenue per drug, per year, and management estimates an 85% success rate,

so there's a lot of good things to like about this company, and i think it's a leader in a rapidly growing market >> bk, you got a question for the general? >> i do for the general. general, love the pitch. quick question, though what kind of mote does this company have around there? because you've got major logistics companies that could just hop right into that we see fedex building and u.p.s. building cold storage. why is this company so special sm. >> yeah, i think part of it's technology, and part of it's just the speed at which they've moved. if you look at their debt on the balance sheet, that's a little bit of a black eye for the company right now, but they've been using it to scale to meet future demand, so i think it makes the business that much more attractive. they now have 30 facilities around the world they have partnerships with fedex and u.p.s. and dhl i think the profitability might be a little bit of a question. they're continuing to capture market share if you just look at revenue growth, for example, they grew

less than -- or revenues were less than $34 million in 2019. next year they're going to be about 200 million. i think the momentum is there so i continue to make it. >> no more questions, time to vote, are you buying jeff's pitch on cryoport? james, what do you say >> regenerative medicine is on fire, yes, i'm supporting that >> all right james, the bears a yes mike khouw, what do you say? >> absolutely. i'm a buyer here i like the fact that you're taking a look at names that are a little bit under the radar, so i'm definitely a buyer >> bk, is it a clean sweep >> yep, it's a trifecta. it's a buy >> wow this is rare, jeff this is rare but we want to know what you out there think about jeff's pitch on cryoport, are you buying it head on over to our twitter poll at cnbcfastmoney to vote coming up, what new year's eve celebrations will look like in times square as the big apple copewis th stringent restaurant

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so is anything going on in your location in times square >> no, we have not opened that, melissa, since march, it has been shuttered as well as our 50 street restaurant. we have 23 restaurants open, which is probably many more than anyone else in the new york metropolitan area, but those two have never reopened from the shutdown >> you got a unique perspective because not only we know you as the guy who runs applebee's

basically across the street from where we normally broadcast, but you also invest in various other restaurant concepts. you've got a pizza chain you've got a private equity hat on as well so what do you foresee for the industry in 2021 especially as we see so many restaurants across the country and particularly in new york city close their doors is that good for the ones that are survivors? >> well, you know, it's heart brae breaking but there's always winners and losers in every event and certainly in a crisis. melissa, there's four parts of the restaurant industry. it's not monogamous, fast food, fast casual, casual dining which we are, and foot serve each one comes out of it i suspect differently. quick serve fast food, of which i am in private equity, i'm a director of a company that has about 300 fast food units, they haven't been affected nearly as much fast casual, and as you move up

the chain ironicallironically ye affected fast casual, the model says there have got to be a lot of people one behind the other as they go down and pick your food out. you can't have that. casual dining, which we are, which is table service, we've got to figure out how are we going to survive how are we going to have a piece of that restaurant slice, and the biggest challenge, of course, is fine dining, will they ever be what they once were will they ever be able to come back think about this, melissa. what do they offer atmosphere there's no atmosphere with to go there's no atmosphere with social distancing. there's no atmosphere with a mask i put this mask on to start with to show you you can't see one's expression how does one project hospitality and warmth with their faces covered? so let me talk to air space or all of it really deals with contactless and a new barometer

is sanitation. >> right >> how comfortable will a guest feel with masks, gloves, washing your hands, and will they put their life at risk to come in and when the inside opens again across the country, how comfortable will guests come in and not know the person sitting next to them whether they're an asymptomatic carrier or not, forever, forever not just for -- people ask me how long will this go on, how long 9/11, which i by the way was a volunteer on that file getting body parts, 9/11 happened to two buildings in new york city, and everyone said how long will tsa be in existence. forever. >> right >> forever >> who can go through an airport anywhere in the world without going through a tsa. so how long will covid-19 impact the restaurant business? forever. >> right

zane, it's always great to get your insights. i hope next new year's eve we'll be back at the nasdaq, you'll come on in person, and we'll see the smile. >> and we'll have a toast together exactly. >> thanks so much. >> nice to see you. >> brian kelly, your outlook for restaurants. zane made a poignant statement the restaurant industry will be changed forever because of this. i guess the question we have to tackle with is in what way and what are the trades for next year >> yeah, so it's really interesting, i mean, zane is a brilliant operator what a lot of people don't know is zane gets most of his exercise on new year's eve running between his restaurants and then feeding us some fantastic food on set so hopefully he's on the bike this year nonetheless, i do think restaurants have changed forever. the bigger firms are going to get it you're starting to see that trend, anybody with a drive-through is really doing well, and plus, if you can do that drive-through business, you can shrink the foot lane

starbucks is going to start doing that you look for those companies in 2021 that are shrinking their footpri footprint, shrinking their real estate costs and doing the drive-through. coming up, a recent trade suggesting this turbulent group may be clear for takeoff in 2021 e e tas eailahd. and a final bonus hour of "fast money," we're angstisweri your stock market questions at the top of the hour. have a question, we will be right back ♪ ♪ ♪ why do you build me up, build me up... ♪

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welcome back to "fast money. a trio of airline stocks pulling back mike, what'd you see >> yeah, i was taking a look at jets this is the etf that tracks the u.s. -- actually, the global airline industry that includes all of the major airlines it actually includes some of the manufacturers as well. this was a name that saw more than two times the average daily call volume today and where that was concentrated was the march 27 call, over 20,000 of those traded, and this wasn't just retail flow. that included a block of 4,000 calls that traded for about $0.60. now, this is one of the few stickers that we can take a look at that is actually still down

considerably on the year, down about 29% year-to-date, and that level that they've chosen, which means it would have to get above 27.60 just to break even would put jets firmly back into territory it hasn't seen since the end of february. this is basically a play on a significant and full recovery in this space this is definitely recovery trade coming out of the pandemic trade, and looking for this to occur sometime in the next three months. >> james, you like airlines? >> i love airlines when we go back to normal jets was one of our recovery plays. when we get near the bottom and buying things that are going to come back. i like the application of an index focused approach we don't know what's happening in the board rooms, which boards are going to liquidate, which ones are going to lay off. i like jets, but i like jets after we get back to reopen. that's a really bold bet that they're going to come up seven points in a short period. >> it's hard to figure out when the market is going to think that back to normal is going to

happen, and when do the markets anticipate the back to normal as opposed to wait for the back to normal to arrive >> well, the market's been anticipating back to normal since the may lows. >> true. >> so for me i'm a seller of jets. >> let's find out if the viewers are buying the fast pitch on cryoport, you got the right temperature, jeff, 52% of voters were buying your pichtch. you won the public over. time for the final trade, now, let's go around the horn. >> cryoport, no surprise there, exposure to regenerative medicine without having to know what drug gets approved. i think that's the key it's just broad exposure to a really rapidly growing market. >> james. >> 52 week high, this means volatility is under pressure i like uv anxy still. >> mike khouw. >> i like financials specifically morgan stanley. i think it's one of the few value plays you can have here. >> brian kelly.

>> you know, some gold has been a bit of a laggard and i've always said if you've you're a millennial you buy bitcoin, if you're a boomer you buy gold i straddle in the middle of those two, i think you buy some gld for the new year. >> that does it for this hour, don't despair, we've got one last bonus hour left for 2020. do not go anywhere, a very special edition of "fast" starts right after this break i have an idea for a trade. oh yeah, you going to place it? not until i'm sure. why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk.

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hey there "mad money" fans cramer is off but you are in luck because it is new year's eve and the "fast money" party will keep on rocking we want to hear from you tweet us @cnbcfastmoney. we might answer your questions on the air your traders tonight we're primed and ready to go our first viewer question is on amazon >> congratulations to the entire "fast money" team ona great 2020 and here is to a

wonderful 2021 the question today on amazon do you think the stock has more room to run in 2021 given the financial services >> good question what do you tell him >> yeah. i'm with you a great '21 to you as well i would say the thing about amazon is, yes it benefited from the pandemic one might argue it was a great amazon relief act that happened. but i would say they're also pivoting a bit one thing we discovered about amazon is that small and medium businesses are really starting to ramp up now they become amazon becomes a way, a digital platform for small and medium businesses and i think you'll see that into '21 as well as the other kind of monopoly businesses, pharma, everything else that amazon is doing. i think there's a lot of levers for them to pull going into

2021 >> james, do you like an amazon that is more focused in terms of selling goods and cloud services or do you like the kind of amazon that sankra is talking about going into these businesses like pharma, trying to break up industries that are already existing >> i'm loving amazon i think this is an extraordinarily successful business at these price levels so i am cautious i took amazon in its wonderful, wonderful run over the last four years, it took them two years to double from 16 to 18, two years to double from 18 to here. are we going to continue to go higher probably but it is going to be at a more relaxed pace if you look at the 18 to 19 movement in the stock before we had this pandemic tailwind, things kind of slowed down i think they're vulnerable to a general market pullback but i think it is a strong company and definitely place an investment in amazon for the long term. >> we have a couple of these sort of pandemic benefiting stocks in the next few minutes, mike i think the question that investors are grappling with is

how much business are they going to be able to retain in 2021 with the march back to normal? if we are back to normal even if it's a high fraction of the business they did in 2020, can it support the valuations they've achieved >> so, you know, it's interesting as we're talking about -- i don't call it a pivot necessarily. it is sort of add on to additional businesses that amazon has added over time this was a one time book seller then an everything seller then a cloud services provider and now into distribution. everything they've added is another avenue for growth. i don't see that this is going to necessarily slow a great deal on a reopening we're not even thinking about things like groceries which is an area we look at as other retailers. bricks and mortar like walmart and target we talk about that. they acquired whole food amazon did. fundamentally this is a business that continues to move in the

right direction but to james' point the valuation -- we typically look at amazon because they've been so growth oriented as an enterprise value to ebitda and right now the multiple is pretty high trading something like 50 times. 30 is probably more what we are used to seeing i think it is a testy level to get into it but fundamentally i think they'll remain strong. >> we are now zooming into a big work from home winner question next >> thanks for taking my call this is bob down in new jersey just loving it got a question here on zoom. the situation is they reported a very good second quarter followed by a 70-point drop the next day it's been in a turmoil ever since. so understanding there are profits from the right side of the virus and profits from the right side of being stay at home is that causing this or is there something else and would you buy it here? thanks >> before we get to the traders

let's bring in kate rogers for a look at how the work from home trades are doing hey, kate. >> hey, melissa. if you're anything like me it's been a year of business on the top and mostly leggings on the bottom as so many of us work remotely during the pandemic and as a result certain stocks got a real boost thanks to that stay-at-home play. first off you can't talk 2020 without mentioning zoom of course it defined the year with everything from meetings to schools to happy hours all taking place on line that stock has soared this year up nearly 400% year to date. cloud company docusign saw big gains up almost 200% for the year with gyms closing around the country multiple times through the year peloton shares went through the roof as americans invested in home workout systems. that stock is up over 430% year to date. to think this time last year all we could talk about was that peloton commercial on to netflix seeing big gains despite fierce competition in the streaming wars particularly

from disney plus as it racked up subscribers. netflix up 65% year to date. chewy getting a big boost of more than 200% gains as americans stayed home with their pets and so many rescued and brought home new animals particularly dogs to keep them company during the pandemic. one silver lining in this very challenging year happy new year back over to you >> no cameo from olli, kate? it's new year's eve. >> he is locked away too loud too involved he's in another room. >> okay. all right. kate, thank you. say hi kate rogers. >> thank you. >> back to zoom to answer bob's question james, what do you say >> bob, here is the thing. if you look at correlations, at a chart of the rate of infections of covid and you look at zoom you'll see perfect correlation. you'll see the lock step up. until the last quarter the virus infections kept going and the vaccine came in and money has come straight out of this thing i think that is going to continue i think the excitement in this

was based on our inability to go back to work i think competition comes in i would let go of my position here >> brian kelly, what do you say about zoom >> well, i say that i've switched to leggings as well for most of this year as kate rogers has. that is because of zoom. however, as we get back to a more professional environment it is unlikely i'll be able to wear those leggings nor will i be using zoom as much i don't think it's going away. i think there is a ton of competition coming in particularly from google and their meet ups so i think the stock zoom probably got way ahead of what zoom is actually going to do. >> you can't unsee certain things for sure. mike, what do you have to say? >> first of all, brian kelly wearing leggings i don't think so you don't wear socks most of the time you run around in loafers with no socks even in the dead of winter i have a hard time believing you're sporting leggings in the comfort of your living room.

here's the thing i think james is right on point here this was obviously a stock that benefited from everybody else's bad news but there is competition here alphabet is providing it and they're providing their offering microsoft i think is a place i would much rather be and they have a similar offering and great resources. of course sisco could always turn around some of their products that are related in the space. the zoom guys came from sisco and the web x team to me on a valuation basis i would say no on a reopening basis i would say no besides which there are better ways to play it i think so no. >> let's take a look at another work from home name. this one is going to make us sweat. >> changing a lot of every day activities due to the pandemic a lot of people invested in home gyms my question is about peloton is the stock still worth owning after the acquisition plus the subscription based model >> good question mike, what do you say? >> yes, so this is an

interesting case here because i mean i would probably say that on a valuation basis and on a reopening basis maybe not except that, you know, my experience with people who bought these things and i know a lot of people who have is that they absolutely love them i know they're sticking with the subscriptions. so that model seems to be working. the thing is even once we do reopen those machines are still going to be sitting in whatever part of the house they put them in and they feel compelled to use them and it is a health care thing. you sort of really get into the use of it. i think there is some measure of persistance that could exist even as we come out of this because people who were going to the gym might actually decide that if they can interact with people and that is a critical part of working out they might continue to do it at home. this might not necessarily fold up the way some other stay-at-home trades would. >> you can take classes or pretaped classes or live classes. james, where do you stand on the peloton? >> i'm sorry this is way over valued. p ratio of almost 2,000.

think about that every health and fitness company that's come with a new innovation that hit hot popularity, it's a trend that comes and goes and i think this stock is way, way up we had extreme situations which caused the popularity. and when things go back to normal people are going to flock to this to keep the pe ratio even feasible and so i think this is a stock that comes down in the next year >> b.k.? >> i don't know. b.k. did one of those tobada rides earlier today and thinks he'll do it for the rest of the year i like the stock i think people stick with it i think the subscription model is good. the challenge is they'll have to raise revenue by doing add-ones but they lock you into that ecosystem very similar to what apple did and i think people stick with it. >> coming up, who was the biggest winner from the stay-at-home trade athe of course wh t traders think about

chewy's big rally. we are back right after this

>> welcome back. our next question gives us something else to chewy on >> happy new year from chicago, illinois chewy.com has been one of my top stocks this year i love the pet industry and think chewy has a great model for customer lifetime value. as we look to 2021 i'm wondering how we should think about valuing chewy versus other growth stocks and if it is a time when i should increase my position or just hold on to it thanks >> that is an interesting question in the 5:00 hour we had bill on saying the technicals looked good for chewy you said you liked it.

you're a dog dad what do you think versus other growth stocks of chewy >> yeah. first the other growth stocks if i had to do, you know, i think there is a game called would you rather something. >> would you rather? >> yeah, yeah. listen, chewy won't have the growth it had during the pandemic that was a very unique time. that being said i don't think the growth necessarily -- it may decelerate but it doesn't stop it became very clear that it is very convenient to use it. you set up automatic subscriptions. that is fairly easy as well as you can get your dog's drugs, whatever pharmaceuticals they might take i think that continues i wouldn't add to it but i certainly if you've got a winner in this one let it ride. >> james, you like to speak out against highly valued stocks so i won't ask your thoughts on chewy. i can guess. you don't like it. what is your top growth stock for '21? >> wow you put me on the spot here.

i'm going to an index strategy and i think any of the arc complex etfs would be a good bet. i like their fintech play, their disruptive automobile play let's go with that one, with the arc investment in autonomous vehicles. >> mike, your thoughts on chewy? >> yeah, you know, sometimes i sound like a value player. sometimes a growth player. you know, this one the valuation is a little bit hard for me to get my arms around mostly because i'm just trying to figure out how big the moat is is this not a business other competitors could get into and are well positioned and then will they be able to establish the kind of margin that would justify the $38 billion valuation the company currently carries? it is not that i don't think the company is going to grow i believe it will. not that i don't think they provide a good service i believe they do. it's just they have to do something pretty remarkable to

continue to grow the share price which is i think what the viewer was asking you can hold on to the shares you hold but i wouldn't be adding to my position. >> the comps in 2021 are going to get real hard our next question hits the bulls eye. >> i'm david martin from michigan my question is about target tgt. recently it's been acting contrarian moving up when the market moves down and down when the market moves up. what is your prediction for the coming market? is target a good long position to take? james, you've already predicted the market is going to be at risk but do you like target in that context >> i like that you're handicapping me on everything i say. i had to try on something different. i like target because it's not

too expensive at 23 p.e. in this environment i think the point was made at the top of the previous show that not everything is on fire. not everything is back there are specific pockets of value. we look at how far the market has come and contribute half of the gains in the s&p to a handful of companies having said that target found its footing in this crisis with its online ability and it being one of the select stores that was allowed to stay hope during the peak of the crisis i think target strengthened itself i actually like it at a 24 pe. i don't think it is going to be immune to a sell-off but i think it is reasonably priced here >> mike? >> i like target i would just say, look they're obviously showing they can migrate to a new economy, doing that very effectively, they sell the things people need and want the valuation is good. they are a relatively safe place to be. i like target. >> you love that game seemingly,

forget what it's called, wall pla mart or target >> oh, target. this is a valuation. i'm generally not a big valuation player but i think target has a chance to grow into what walmart became they were a bit behind on the digital. they really got it going this year so target. i would rather >> we are stocking up on the consumer questions so here is another. >> hi, "fast money" and happy new year i would like to know if you would sell mo altria and invest in pg proctor & gamble >> mike, what do you tell him? >> yeah, i mean, we were just talking about stocks that might be a little bit more immune if we did start to see volatility in the beginning of the year you please be, pg's valuation is a little bit higher than it has been historically but in the context of race and everything else we're seeing at 25 times it's a little bit cheaper actually than the market over

all. it has beta of z0.7. it pays a decent dividend. what you see is what you get proctor & gamble benefited a little bit from what's going on but i think this is one place that's actually safest to keep your money in terms of equities right now. >> james >> as a recent person who quit smoking i have to say yes switch from anything but this proctor & gamble, you have a good dividend you have a good business to supply all of the needs that will go and grow from a covid environment. and at 26 pe it's okay here. i think proctor & gamble is a good business going forward. they sell just about everything. >> they certainly do you know, brian kelly, the stock has come down from its highs a little bit and seems to be leveling off maybe that works in its favor. >> yeah, i think it does you please be, it works in the risk reward favor as well. because you've got this consolidation period that you can at least shoot against the

lows on that i think i agree with the other two. i agree with james certainly quit smoking that's fantastic choose anything else congrats to you, james proctor & gamble i actually like it as part of a portfolio, right because it has the volatility dampening effect as mike said. >> all right coming up get the glitter ready because we're talking goal the shiny metal posting its best rate in a decade much more on this bonus hour of "fast money" straight ahead at carvana, no matter what car

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welcome back to a bonus hour of "fast money" gold posting the best in a decade let's get to a metals question. >> i'm charlie from chicago. i'm down in florida right now with the stimulus checks coming in i wondered what you thought about gold happy new year's

>> before we answer charlie let's bring in again capital founding partner and cnbc contributor, john, great to speak with you. >> same here, melissa. happy new year to everybody. to you in particular. >> thank you very much happy new year to you. what is your outlook for gold in '21? >> as the caller just referenced we're getting stimulus this week there's going to be extended unemployment there is going to be more stimulus coming along probably by the boat loads. that can only help gold. it's already helping obviously bit coin but i would just point out that gold is your father's bitcoin and it, too, shall rise in times of the prolific kind of spending and efforts by the federal government that are being undertaken right now and by the fed of course so you have not only exposure to gold but also exposure to copper and both of those things are

going to be pumped up by a weakening dollar that we're already seeing a weakening dollar that's down double digits now on the year that's going to be under assault from what the federal government and the fed has no choice but to do in terms of supporting our economy and our fellow scitizens it is a great place to hide out. and i will say this as well in terms of it being sort of your father's stock, melissa, it's the kind of metrics that i grew up with in this market it's got a 13 pe that is price to earnings not to sales or what have you, actual earnings. it has a decent dividend yield of about 1.5% and this great exposure i hope the party doesn't end for some of the stocks out there that trade at a hundred times sales but if it does, this, a stock like this, is your

insurance policy against the potential day of reckoning that could come. >> sure. a weak dollar will be the tailwind for all sorts of commodity trades going to 2021 what is your favorite if we overlay the expectation things are going to go back to normal and reopen do you also want to pick a commodity you mentioned copper that gets a sort of industrial boost as well as a tailwind in addition to the weak dollar? what is your favorite? >> i do. i think copper has priced in much as the equity market has with a lot of hopefulness for next year. i am an oil guy as you all know. i think that is probably the most under valued commodity going here as are things like gasoline and jet fuel and heating oil. that really favors the refiners who are going to do extremely well but, too, we talk in the hayday when crude was over a hundred dollars a barrel about curing high prices these low prices we've been through the past year are in the process of curing that as well

there's just tremendous under investment there is a lot of retrenchment i can easily see a lot of pain at the pump later in the year for consumers because of all the retrenchment in the industry i think we're really setting ourselves up as a country and consumer based economy for a blow to us at the pump at the fuel pump. so i really think the place to sort of start mining right now besides gold, which i do think is a good play as well, but is the crude oil, the petroleum complex. >> all right john, always great to get your thoughts thank you. >> thank you have a great one. >> john kilduff, again capital mike, john likes barrick do you >> i do, absolutely. i've been long silver for most of the year and part of the reason i got into silver originally was because at the time it had been under performing gold, now actually the opposite is true

so i'm going to be rotating my position into goal people who aren't trading commodities directly via futures or options on futures can do that via gld gdx is another way to play it. i think a lot of things john was saying also are true for energy. it is important to remember in the energy complex that sometimes you have a situation where you have these supplies and demand shuift and can create near term supply shortages in the same way you can have big gluts as we saw earlier this year when wti actually traded negative at one point. also on the product side i think you'll see the potential for some supply/demand imbalance which would be good for the refining space i like that play as well >> brian kelly, gold that was your final trade wasn't it it seems so long ago half an hour ago to be exact >> not even an hour. >> like half an hour 29 minutes >> yeah. >> but do you like barrick

specifically >> actually, yes i do. you've got a couple things going for it one is the fact they do pay a dividend in a low rate environment that is going to be good it's levered to the price of gold you've already seen copper run but copper could probably get a bit more of a run. i like the entire complex but barrick specifically i think does quite well. >> all right coming up snowflake shares cooling off today. what is ahead for one of this year's ipo darlings. that trade next. later if you're cracking open adult beverages, talking booze stocks stick around we have much more ahead. some things are good to know. like where to find the cheapest gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. something else that's good to know? if you

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>> welcome back to this bonus hour our next question is about a 2020 ipo that counts warren buffet as an investor. >> hey, "fast money" this is mark from hawaii i want your opinion on snowflake. is it worth getting in now or wait a little longer thanks >> before we answer mark we want to bring in leslie picker who has more on where else smart money went in 2020 >> stock picking hedge funds found solace in stellar returns this year on average they beat the s&p. energy, health care, and technology focused funds all on pace to generate alpha for 2020. what were the stocks that got them there for that we turn to goldman sachs' very important positions for the stocks that appear most frequently among the largest positions for hedge funds. over nine consecutive quarters the same top five stocks have reigned supreme. these are amazon, facebook,

microsoft, alibaba and google's parent company alphabet. more recently hedge funds have been reducing ownership of amazon and bumped tesla off the top 50 list. some recentipos have also caught attention of the so-called smart money. warren buffet took a massive stake in snowflake which more than doubled in its debut and has remained at elevated levels. hedge funds were bearish on tech and media as well though among the stocks that represent the largest absolute value of short positions intel, at&t, amd, comcast, and aeon make up the top of the list. bolstering returns for hedge funds was record net numbers in diminishing short term interest levels among a rising broader market however the hedge fund favorites of 2020 are getting quite expensive. that basket of top stocks is trading at 25 times two-year forward earnings a widening premium to the 19 times exhibited by the s&p 500

>> thank you, leslie bk, what do you think of snowflake? >> so, you know, listen. snowflake, it is actually a real company. it had this massive ipo pop right into the 400s and now it's come down to earth the key for snowflake is going to be can it hold around the 265 level or so? if you start to see some demand come in there, remember you got a lot of ipo investors that flipped it in the high 400 if they come back here call it 265 then i think that is going to be the sign we've bottomed out. the froth has gone out and it is a real company with real prospects. >> james, can you get behind snowflake? >> it is tough here even with these valuations at one point its valuation surpassed the entire addressable market which is about $81 billion on an entry level basis. they have good metrics and

averaged almost 25%. they have great retention. they doubled the number of customers spending over a million bucks. you have to be careful jumping on to ipos in hot bull markets it's tough as an investor to come in and make money going forward but it is a solid company. >> mike? >> yeah, you know, we can take a look at companies that have high valuations where obviously there's continued strength, a lot of people buying the stock tesla a tesla is a name like that. look at how snowflake has performed since late november. it's been under performing the market and some of the other high valuation growth type stocks a good business but i'm with bk. i think there does appear to be some level of support around the 260 or just pleau. traded in that range for several months and i can see if it got back to that level there is probably some measure of support. a better entry point than up here over 280. >> there were a lot of hot ipos and let's get to the next

question. >> hey "fast money" happy new year and great job filling in for cramer this week really enjoyed the show. my question is about quantum scape. i am a big believer in solid state battery technology and they've had tremendous success with 80% charge in 15 minutes. they're down 25% over the last five days and a little over 12% today. is now the time to get in or should we expect the pullback to continue thanks again >> thanks for the question, greg mike, what do you say? >> i too am a believer in the technology but it is a supply and demand story and they announced a secondary which means there is more supply if you have net share selling the price isn't going to go higher that actually is basically what is accounting for today's weakness and you can probably be patient with this one. >> you often speak of stocks you put in the top drawer and you wait does this fall into that category >> yeah. you're right here tonight, melissa. absolutely this is one of those

stocks and i actually think even the news of the secondary here now the news is out. could it go another 10%, 15% lower? sure but to mike's point i like the longer term call it five-year to ten-year trajectory on this. so if you can get it at a price discount to where it has traded in the past then why not put it in your top drawer, sleep well at night >> this is all part of a euphoria surrounding the trade, james. what is your top way of playing that space, that trend >> tesla don't need to be long winded with that one. this company is over valued. i think tesla is going to be the monster in this space for playing ev i think tesla will be the monster in the space for what people aren't really talking about, the artificial intelligence u intelligence intellectual property that is going to power every autonomous vehicle initiative to answer your question, tesla

>> just a quick follow on bk is tesla still in your top drawer or did you take it out and put it into a lower drawer and maybe recycle it >> there is a good portion of tesla still in my top drawer i mean, again. nobody is going to blame you after a 700% run or whatever it was to take a little bit off the table. but to james' point i think there is a lot more to this company than just an automobile company. >> all right we have another question on one of warren buffet's bets. >> good evening, traders i've been looking at the stock of bristol-myers with only a 4% change over the past 26 weeks and not much movement over all this year um' wondering if heading into the new year it's time to buy. thank you and happy new year >> james, you like bmy >> plenty of blockbuster drugs in the pipe line potentially and it is at a bargain price, a forward looking price range

ratio single digits. the key is, the low valuations as the company faces the prospect of sales declines in 2022 when some generic versions of its blockbuster drug is coming online. wall street thinks bristol-myers will deliver average growth of more than 25% in the next five years. i think a good buy a good pipeline with a lot of loaded winners in it. >> mike? >> i'm with james on this. this is kind of the same story in some respects as pfizer of. we talked about that earlier this week. i mean the company obviously looks very cheap on the trailing basis because of some of the other head wind he was just referencing there. but this is one of those names definitely deserving a spot in your portfolio particularly if you have some of these higher flying stocks. this is basically going to be a good way to diversify. you're getting some pay out here i like bristol >> bk, what is your top pick in big cap pharma >> oh, you know, that's kind of interesting. if you look at bmy actual u i

like the dividend on it. mike was just talking about the high flyers. here's how i would look at those. tesla is like jumping off the high dive. it's scary, fun, and you'll make a big splash with bristol-myers it's like jumping into a pool of foam blocks it's fine. you're not going to get hurt you'll get a little excitement so that's how i'd frame these two. >> foam blocks the first time that phrase -- the first time it's ever been mentioned on "fast money." coming up, it's new year's eve and while the champagne may not be flowing as much this year this mute ight be some booze stk that could prop up your portfolio. stay tuned - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university, we're committed to making college more accessible by making it more affordable, that's why we're keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021.

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welcome back to another bonus hour of "fast money" and let's crack open a question about an alcohol stock >> hi guys this is bernard calling from southern california. i'm an investor, cpa i also work in the legalized cannabis industry. the 2020 covid-19 has given the legalized cannabis industry a nice tailwind. however, looking at the traditional recession proof stocks hasn't done nearly as well i'm thinking of the likes of deo. what do you think is happening with that sector cheers >> the little kid in the background too who cheered brian kelly, what do you say >> yeah, well, so in particular

with coors what they didn't do is adapt what you're seeing is a lot of people that have switched from beer to some of the lighter beverages. i have a good friend who loves the white claw these days so of course they didn't pick that up. recently they have they made a couple partnerships in the recent past i think they have the hasa brand now that is going to diversify them away from the beer sector i think there probably is a bit of up side in tap molson coors >> mike, what do you say >> i think basically the biggest support you might have here is just the fact that the stock has performed so badly and consequently is relatively cheap i think trading eight, nine times earnings here. bk really hit the nail on the head you don't have to adapt with your new beverage types even in your own space if that is going to be beer we've seen more people migrating to the makers of beer but they

haven't been able to keep up on that also the dividend suspension was an issue you have the dividend coming back you know, the valuation might be a way to play a turn-around story. >> let's sit on another boozy stock question >> hello happy new year everyone. i apologize for my pandemic hair i would like to know, i missed out on boston beer company sam when it was 600. mr. cramer told me to grab it and i didn't and now it is at a thousand is it too late he also told me to do constellation brand which i did and that, too, is at its 52-week high should i add more money to constellation brands thanks y'all so much >> all right james, what do you tell terry? >> i think boston beer company is a great business. i think it is going to continue to do well so much momentum in it so much high consumer demand and brand loyalty. so i think that's a keeper.

>> mike? >> yeah. i think so also on constellation brands i like constellation brand too obviously that is a broader sort of thing there if you're buying constellation. it's not as quite as narrow as boston beer. >> coming up, check your heart rate because we are jumping into a fitness electronics stock that has seen its own ups and downs this year. with 2020 mi tcongo an end make sure to put a smile on for the new year stock you need to make the pearly whites pop. coming up next [sfx: beep beep beep] should we just go see a movie? yes! go rogue in the all-new, fiercely reimagined nissan rogue.

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coming up after "fast money" a very covid new year's eve a look at the pandemic impact on celebrations across the globe. the news minutes away.

welcome back to this bonus hour of "fast money" let's jump right into this next question. >> hello my name is richard from georgia. with google's recent acquisition of fit bit and it being the new year with all the new year's resolutions what will fit bit's upside look like in the new year thank you. >> interesting question. james, what do you say >> i say like most fads they come and go and fit bit is a perfect example. to our comments earlier about peloton things get really hot and then they're not fit bit will still be in the cellar a year from now a lot of big companies make acquisitions testing ideas we will never know about that may never come to market i would not put money in this stock, richard >> mike? >> i definitely think this is one you want to avoid. take a look at how the company has been doing over the last couple years this is a situation where the company is not making money and has significantly declining

revenues largely because of the things james was just talking about which means it is a mad am scramble for management to keep things afloat and reposition themselves and you'll be competing against apple eye watches and stuff like that. a lot of functionality that other technology providers have and they are kind of a one trick pony whatever google might be up to let's leave it up to them to figure out whether they can do something with it. i wouldn't put it in my portfolio. >> a good point on the apple watch. there is also garmin, bk >> yeah. exactly. fit bit's competitive advantage was they had a gadget that nobody else had. as soon as software took that over and by software i mean what they're doing with the apple watch, what google is doing with its own watch, what garmin does, all of those things you don't necessarily need that particular gadget you just need the software on something. how many watches can you wear? i'm not mike i don't have several diamond watches up my arm therefore i would not buy fit bit.

>> he's hiding them under his shirt sleeve let's jump into our next and last question and here's one that hopefully makes you smile >> hey, "fast money" team, calling from california. i want your opinion on smiledirectclub or sdc you know, with the new year coming around and everyone trying to set new goals and new resolutions and especially my generation with everyone trying to look good on the internet with tiktok and instagram i think it provides a more streamlined approach to traditional orth done theics and the company has a lot of potential but i want your take on the potential of the company where you think the stock can go and if they are actually disrupting the industry. >> bk, i know you want to look your best on tiktok and instagram so what do you think of sdc >> that's very true. i do want to i learned that from the kardashians. but i got grabs. smile direct i'm not a big fan of this.

the reason why it is extremely vulnerable to economic hiccups that is the first thing you'll let go if you don't have money if for some reason the virus comes back and you lose your job again. it had a pretty good rally off the lows i understand the kind of longer term trajectory that you do want to look good on tiktok as we all do but i just think smile direct is a real dangerous one here >> let's finish out the new year's theme here. we were inspired by auld lang syne specifically old investments you may want to forget if you want to ask traders about their stock regrets for the year, hum. interesting year, bk, to ask this question. what do you say? bk >> oh, you were talking to me. >> yeah. bk that's your na imright >> yeah. i regret not taking my memory and hearing medicine i guess so for me, actually the casino

stocks this is really emblematic of the whole recovery when they said they'd open the casinos again i thought that's crazy. nobody is going to go. then there were throngs of people going what i missed was the people that generally will go to the casinos think they can beat the odds of the casino so certainly they think they're going to beat the odds of the virus. i was in my bubble i didn't see all of that going on i missed that whole trade. and that is my regret. >> does that mean, are you regretting not getting into other reopening trades >> cruise lines, airlines. i got into a little bit of them but i didn't hold them long enough i didn't trade them well so yes regrets i had a few. >> all right mike, let's go to you. >> probably like every investor watching i wish i'd owned tesla the whole time but really my regret trade is an old stock as

well and that is at&t. this is an interesting situation. the way i've been thinking about this they have a lot of legacy businesses that continue to struggle that basically hold the company down we have the 5g rollout and things that are positive but number one they seem to have a supported dividend here. that was one thing i thought could bolster the stock. something else is when you have monetary policy that is basically in favor of debtors you might look at balance sheets that have a lot of debt on them as potential beneficiaries at&t is certainly one of these i was kind of surprised to see how poorly it did throughout the end of the year but actually this is going to be a holding that i'll have going into the new year, too. >> sort of dogs of the dow kind of theory, mike. this might be something people want to get into, initiate a new position in? >> i think so. this is one of those situations you have to look past some of the businesses really struggling the legacy wire line business that is a problem.

negative ebitda, obviously a problem. we have 5g rollouts. that is a positive we do have monetary policy that basically is going to keep borrowing costs relatively low you do have people who are going to be looking for yield. this is a company that's got a lot of it. those are things that at the very least change the risk rewards dynamic if you happen to buy the shares here. >> james, what is your regret? >> i wasn't always a grumpy old man. once upon a time when the market crashed in march and valuations were back to late 2016 levels, i thought clearly, and i thought that this 12-year bull market had finally come to a pause and we were going higher but there was so much negative news, so much fear in the market that i let go of fpy around the $245 low. it had just broken out my instincts told me this was a good buy level but i really was concerned about the pandemic and i was not one of those who got back in the market and held and

i regret that. >> i think, james, a lot of people out there have that regret brian kelly, in the depths of the pandemic, with all the volatility we saw, all the economic destruction that has happened because of the side effects, i don't please know ify people had the stomach to get in close to those march modes or stay in. >> yeah. absolutely we even heard it from warren buffet as well you know, at that point in time, the distribution of outcomes were so varied it was hard to put any probability on any of them we really didn't know what was going to happen. it was a really difficult time and i think even the pros get it wrong and one thing that you can learn from that is when everything looks horrible, when it's the worst and you feel like you want to vomit on your shoes that is probably the time you want to buy. so if that's what, the lesson i'm going to take from 2020 is

when i feel like i want to vomit on my shoes bk is a buyer. >> we've all learned a lot in 2020 for sure. thank you traders for all your time and dedication all throughout this year on top of tonight. thank you out there for watching the special edition of "fast money. happy and healthy new year we'll see you on the other side. the news is up next. i'm contessa brewer in for shepard smith on cnbc, and this is the news. >> there's a lot of anticipation here to ring in 2021 there will be no massive crowds, though. >> ringing in a new year like no other. countries around the world celebrating, scaled down and keeping it safe. vaccine rollouts and roadblocks. the shortages, the snafus, and the signs some states are figuring it out. as america looks to 2021, a new