u.s. isn't three or four weeks behind what's happened in the ux, with the new -- uk, with the new strain confi confirmed in new york as well, it's clearly out there spreading already. >> for sure. we have to now assess when we get whatever eck nmic acceleration we're hoping for when we get through the inoculate elimination. >> s&p down 1.5% today having opened positive. we're out of time on "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money. happy new year welcome to the trader lineup tonight on fast, stocks kicking off with a bit of a hang over. and one saying you should by the dip. plus tesla investors living the fast lane as the stock moves to all-time highs should ride this record high later, it's a big market day tweet us at cnbcfastmoney.

you might hear from us we kick off with s&p 500 dropping 1.5%, the worse start the year since 2016. the selling was widespread risk on, rirvsk off tech, industry real estate. -- metal jumping to its highest level in two months. as we kick off the new year in the reds should investors brace for more pain ahead. happy new year, guy. >> happy new year. -- should they brace? yes. i thought they should be bracing for a long time now. i'm probably the wrong one to ask. i will say this, on december 21 vix went from 21.5 to 30 in pretty much a straight line on a day the dow was down 400 points

and closed marginally, today same thing, went from 21 to 29.5 in a straight line that's concerning. these aren't particularly huge moves in underlying equities and the fact that the vix can move that quickly that fast is concerning aside from one of the things we'll talk about later, iran enriching your rainium and seizing south korea oil tankers is not bullish either so there's a lot to be concerned about. at one point, the s&p today made an new all-time high goes to show this market is impervious until it's not. i think there's a lot to be concerned about over the next couple weeks. >> on top of iran there's a list of reasons, market excuses whatever you call it, why the markets pull back more restrictive, or extended lockdowns in europe. there's the george run off to

determine whether or not the senate flips, was there anything that stood out to you? >> it was an interesting day when you think of the new year, markets, euphoria and momentum and valuations it's easy to say it's great place to take profits as people assess the landscape but i don't think that's what it was. we walked in on monday, despite the headlines over the weekend, that there's a reassessment of a blue wave or not those may be significant events over the weekend but markets should have priced that in. the move from 10:30 to 12:30 when smh was down 3.5% in a two-hour clip to me tells me it was about new variance on the covid dynamic in europe and south america and europe, up state, and where we're getting more concern about this virus. because gwagain, the price acti, sure for a market over sold,

welcome to a new year of reassessment and risk but not like what we saw today look, i frankly do think that the dynamics on the election front are very significant for the market and i'm not sure we've totally priced that in i think today may in fact as we saw some recovery, a lot had to do with the headlines we were getting on the virus. >> karen, welcome back, good to have you back, did you enter this market thinking i need to reevaluate rirveg -- risk you walk out every day net long. >> right no, i don't think i need to reevaluate risk. i think some of the things tim talked about, the market effected mostly by the vaccine when the market went up 100 and change to down 700 and change. i was perplexed as to why. we know the virus numbers are very bad and probably going to get worse as the christmas new

year holiday number of infections increases and the roll out of the vaccine, certainly in the u.s., obviously has really gone poorly but i think all of those things will be resolved in the next couple months. hopefully much, much sooner than that for the vaccine when i 12e7 back to look at that when i step back to look at that move we're only where we were in the last week to last december i don't know why it change that materially i really don't know why it happened one thing did catch my eye and i'm not 100% sure what to make of it. that is, the real interest rate on the ten-year we all follow the ten-year closely, which is made up of real interest rates and inflation. when you back out the inflation, the real interest rates are as negative as they've been since covid began so i don't know what to make of that other than fed distortions

but that's one good say expect inflation, i don't, i think we'll see a very good improvement in gdp put it all together i don't know what to make of the sell off today, i'm not changing my strategy because of it >> what else stood out in today's session? >> i mean, it all interest me. a few things did stand out, right. to me it says panic arrest hard to read too much into it. when i start to parse the data and looking through specific events or companies, i do think there's a little bit of the georgia story there. you look at renewables you look at cannabis there's the whole viral

effect particularly when you look at how the u.s. perform and uk indices you are seeing specificity with the u.s. market. it's tough to read too much into it when you over lay the vix, at the ends of the day, wwe granted we bounce off the lows we close about 7.5 with vix close to 30 that's in line for me it's about taking the various pieces of the puzzle and putting them together that story to me says people took a step back to r50e reevaluate but nothing changed. >> good context, bonilawybonawy. and sputtering may be clue maybe telegraphing

that it's time to step back and take risk off the table. what will you keep your eye on in terms of signs that the sell off could continue. >> great question. i think the u.s. dollar continues to get torched every day is something you have to watch. that comes on the heels of some things karen said of i think the market is waking up to that to say this is not particularly healthy for me, i'm watching the dollar for sure two individual stocks are pretty interesting. we had a caller on the second hour last week or the week before asking about apple and we talked about that 138 all-time high in september, we said it was a logical place for it to trade to and subsequently take profits. it's not a big deal, i think it's trading 129 now i think that's been a bell weather for the broader market see how the banks trade. we talk about citi for a long time, 61.5, we gave you the

math, look where it traded up to, see how the banks trade now over the next couple days. those three things i will key off. >> next guest of today's sell off says could be start of something even bigger, tony, great to kick off the new year with you, welcome. >> thank you, mel, great to see you. >> this is your play book you thought we were due for 5 to 10% but long term why do you think the sell out will be contained. >> a lot of people are trying to compare this to 2000, the macro back drop is so different. yes valuations is stretched and tech is on a run but back drop for cred money is off the charts so our core fundamental cases is surrounding, we have historic amounts of access liquidity and in the beginning of a multi-year global recovery. sometimes it gets ahead of itself as evidence, i was listening to the panel, as evidence to that,

think about this, we're all talking about the ten-year going up to 20%, the ten-year note yield is actually below where it was november 4th, the cyclical sectors, favored since june, si cyclical sectors are below their peaks in industrials and financial and energy and materials are still below the peeks in november. so the market has given the signal it's in this turn and now showing up in the indices. >> i get the credit point you've been making for some time. i understand the various measures indicate it's wide open and flowing, but only to concern kinds of companies that are large enough does it matter that credit is effectively shut off for a swath of company that's live on main street that employ americans and that there's a divide in the economy that's not necessarily showing up in those measures

>> i think it's totally horrible but my job is to take the sum of the parts, when you take the monetary stimulus coming from the fed, and the fiscal stimulus, five-fold, you know, five times, coming from the government and you take the interest expense darius phillistimulus the reduction to incomes or gdp or treasury receipts, when you look at those it's been extraordinary stimulant from a macro picture and i pray that that does translate down to main street right now, so mel, what really happens is, you go into an economic and market problem when you have a need for money and limited access it to it. from a broad, macro perspective that's not the case today. it's the opposite. >> tony, thanks so much for being with us today. quick question, so you mentioned

cyclicals and industries as targets when you are looking to average cost down. would you let me know which sectors you expect to lead us lower. we talked about large cap tech but what areas what might we look for in terms of weakness in the next three to six months. >> i say cyclicals since is june, cyclicals is better than defensive. -- and commodities are outperforming. that's what's run up, especially after the news of the vaccine, that's what's going to lead us into the correction. so our view has been since late november to hold what you have i think this cyclical global recovery with excess liquidity is a multi-year game, not a one

quarter or two-month thing so hold what we have and wait for a better buying opportunity which i think is dead ahead to add to those areas. >> tony, great to see you. thank you. >> thank you, mel. >> tim, how do you trade that. >> yes well, let's stay with these asset classes, emerging markets, we've been talking about gold, and the dollar, to me when you look at emerging markets and you're looking at copper, your talking about multi-year break outs after doing nothing for letterman -- almost a decade those are places you continue to have month more momentum you look at the value over growth dynamic again we probably over use these big terms but you think of the industrials and the comps coming into this year are quite easy to be in environment we're seeing some cyclical ity despite the

head winds, big move in gold today and can't under estimate the dollar and there's inflation that means real yields on the ten-year negative and be careful what you want with inflation because we have it but it's good for the asset classes we just mentioned. >> if you're a believer in the resource trades and emerging markets, bonawyn, shouldn't you also be a believer in a global recov recovery >> absolutely those are tied hand in hand, that and weaker dollar bode well in emerging markets particularly in the environment we're in. >> check out shares of walmart up 1.5% on apparently no news. apparently in bonds, in gold and in walmart the markets trust. >> i guess no news in walmart is good news.

cnbc had a piece out today about walmarts health care push and there was news today about that health care initiative disbanded now. maybe that's what it was also walmart the sort of worst of covid was good for walmart so maybe with the resurgence of cases maybe that whats if. i like walmart sticking with it for the long term. >> yeah, guy >> i think that's exactly right, the buffett, jpmorgan news was a big deal and karen's right the fact that things are getting worse again, obviously we talk about london, it plays into walmart's strengths. 155.66 i think was the prior all-time high and i think walmart goes higher from here.

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welcome back to "fast money", we're following some late-breaking news out of the uk, british prime minister boris johnson imposing a national lockdown in england as coronavirus cases continue to grow meg? >> this more severe lockdown across the uk coming as there's major concerns about the more contagious variant there that is taken over boris johnson saying could be 50 to 70% more transmissible and in the uk, while they had stricter measures, throughout november they brought their case counts down and when lifted really coming up sharply there. so that's what they're trying to control now with this lockdown

meanwhile they started administering the astrazeneca, oxford vaccine and hope to give the first shop to everybody in top priority groups by mid-february so they're moving quickly there. here in the united states we're not going as fast as hoped 15.4 million doses of coronavirus vaccine has been distributed and 4.6 million received the first shot, just less than 30%. so we're hearing from health officials who are frustrated about this but still saying they expect that pace to start to pick up in the coming weeks as these systems start to get worked out and they're talking about different strategies to try to increase the supply of covid vaccines, whereas in the uk they've spaced out the doses to as much as twelve weeks for both the fiezer and astrazeneca vaccines though in the pfizer trial was tested three week as part to get more doses to more people in the us, operation warp speed

has talked about the idea of giving a half dose of the moderna vaccine to people age 18 to 55 because it generates the same response, so that could dramatically increase the supply only if the company and the fda agree. >> the half dose news good but is there data to back up what the uk is doing in spacing out the first and second doses and whether or not it could impact the efficacy of the vaccine. >> we don't know so the pfizer trial only tested the doses given 21 days apart. people who know the vaccine world well say it's expected that spacing out the doses more does actually increase the immune response you get from the vaccine but we don't know because we haven't seen it in this trial so that's what folks are

concerned about, they haven't seen the science on this and they're kind of doing an experiment over there without knowing what's going to happen. >> meg, thank you for keeping on top of all of the developments for us in terms of the trade in today's session, as we mentioned at the top, lot of work-from-home stocks fell alongside reopening stocks, don't know what you made of it, maybe zoom finished higher by 7% but had fallen in ten days prior to today's session. >> yeah, great context there i was going to mention zoom as women. keeping -- -- well keeping in mind how it's traded in the past. yes, the down side. sure but we have a play book for what works in and out of a pandemic situation and weren't seeing that enacted today i expect that play book to be reenacted an the pathway forward once by get more information. >> yeah, guy >> it's interesting, i think

zoom was a great tell of what i will tell you in terms of the pharma names, i never thought moderna would get to 178 whatever it traded to. but we had analyst on 16th or 17th with the price around 145 or so i thought would be a good chance to trade back to the prior all-time high of 98. it got pretty close late last week maybe moderna is worth another look pfizer which got to 43 four or five months ago and now at levels of valuation, 36, makes sense. one name that i think will trade back to prior all-time high of 121 from february is medtronics mdt. >> much more coming up on "fast money. here's what's next. >> investors have georgia on their minds. what are the key issues at stake? how will they impact markets

details next and tesla continues to charge up is this stock unstoppable? that's ahead we've got that and i lot more when "fast money" returns. 1w

welcome back to "fast money. stocks tumbling on wall street today as investors turn attention to georgia two key senate run offs tomorrow and the outcome could have a major impact on the market now with the very latest, ylan. >> reporter: president-elect joe biden just wrapped up a rally with two democratic candidates, osoff and warn and repeatedly

brought up $2,000 stimulus checks and turns those into reality. >> their election will put an end to the block in washington that $2,000 stimulus check, that money will go out the door immediately, to help people who are in tre real trouble. >> democratics hold the edge in the polls, well within the margin of area and -- g.o.p. has got last-minute boost from big name financial donors, our colleagues at cnbc found names that include john paulson and ronald who each of whom donate $2800 and edward $5600. the full story is son our website cnbc.com these are already the most

expensive races in history and early-voting turn out is shattering records. >> thank you, potentially a lot at stake could mean the difference between gridlock which markets in general view as a good thing and i blue wave. for a long time you didn't think the markets were pricing in the possibility of a blue wave and what it could mean in terms of policy. >> yeah, i think the most likely outcome would be a split one of each. so, that sort of leaves you in gridlock unless you have a moderate senator move over even if democratics win both seats the knee jerk reaction would be down because of taxes going up but furtherer interpretation would show okay, chance of infrastructure bill would be higher. that will be good for something like a united rent ats -- rentals. i also don't know if we'll know tomorrow night it could drag on longer. >> it could take days. let's talk more on the market

impact of the georgia vote from research partners, dan, good to have you with us from talking to people what do you think investors are pricing in right now what scenario. >> yeah, for most of the cycle coming out of the november election investors placed 70 to 80% probability of the republicans keeping the senate and have seen that really start to tumble in the last week and very pronounced today. i tend to look differently than the overall s&p 500 level. i know we saw weakness on that today, prior tax price in. you got to look at the stocks most levered to the policy outcomes of having a republican or democratic senate with a biden administration and you saw today defense stocks significantly under performing but renewable energy stocks positive on the day, an indication that investors are starting to reprice and somewhere still republicans are slightly favored in the equity

market but the betting odds are giving this a 50/50 probability meaning it is a coin toss which party will control the senate. this is enormously important for the policy outcome and for 40u how the biden administration will move forward. if democratics win you'll get a big stimulus, those $2,000 checks and you'll get climate and infrastructure spending and will have to deal with the tax increases in 2022 and 2023 republicans win you don't get that stimulus but you get none of the tax increases either. so there's a little bit bit of something there for everybody depending on the election result. >> i want to talk about the scenario in which there's a blue wave, what the market fears the most, we don't root for either outcome but from a market perspective they don't want a blue wave. let's talk about the tax bikt. even bucket.

even if georgia hands the democratics two more seats what are the chances corporate tax cuts get rolled back or individual taxes or capital gains get increased. >> yeah i don't want to the under estimate it. you will have a very narrowly divided house and narrowly divided senate i know we're talking about the senate today but in 2000 we had identical maiocco -- make up with bush, he got significant policies including $1.3 trillion tax cut and he got no child left behind and increase in defense spending i believe the democratics through reconciliation process will get additional trillion or trillion and half of new government spending on renewable energy and infrastructure and health care and education and maybe state governance to do that, there's a chance to include a number of tax

increases as well in that fiscal bill which would be an increase in the top marginal income tax rate possibly corporate tax rate but won't go into effect until 2025 and possibly 25% capital gains and dividend tax creasy -- increase as well i wouldn't put 100% tax increases included given the economic environment but democratics don't would justify raysing taxes to help income inequality and is the top priority of president-elect biden. >> so dan, tuesday goes into wednesday and wednesday historically we have formalities, wednesday's supposed to be but that's the day the electors cast their votes. eleven senators i've been told have already said they're going to challenge the results eleven senators. that's somewhat unprecedented, i

think. is the market pricing that in or is that just theater >> it could be a two-hour debate and could be over. when the market gets concerned about a contested election is when you have an event that happens after wednesday's event. biden will be certified by the congress on wednesday, it's a formity. if you have the defense department go and take the voting machine, something every defense secretary warned against in a letter yesterday, that would be much more problematic for the equity market. again that's a low-probability event. i wouldn't say this is what is coming but it seems if you have a event that challenges the election or delayed inauguration after wednesday that's problematic for the market for now the market is focused on georgia and the impact of that, particularly since it wasn't pricing in for the last month and half and now investors are grappling with the idea

democratics could control the senate given the events in the last week in the polling and early-votinger results. >> dan, it's tim to that, i know this is probably our job but i ask you, you said there's something in there for everyone, fiscal weighed against tax increases, look, the impact of tax increases much greater than one-off fiscal. 12k3w4r i agree. >> i don't think equities are pricing that in. >> i agree and you can look at companies what we call with highest tax rates and they're not pricing in those raises some time next year so there's a lot of down side risk in those thematic plays and international technology and biotech companies will take a risk and tim, if you want to think of a ruin verse universal way of this political

environment, biden -- trade policy is manifesting through the weaker dollar and -- semi conductors have been key performers and i think the dollar will continue to weaken regardless what happens in georgia. georgia may add to it. we have been trying to identify the types of trades that could occur regardless whatever happens in paul george and i think the weaker dollar is story that leads to the conclusion,ir regardless of this once you get into tax increases becomes a 2022 and 2023 earnings head and that will have to be discounted in the market we're not there yet. >> thank you thank you so much >> -- would that offset how you think

of higher corporate taxes which does have a chance despite the razor thin manager inc.s in -- margins in the house and senate should democrats win georgia. >> yeah, there is a chance. i also think the chance is low in the short-term but i also think taxes wouldn't go back to where they were. that would be just to that 28. i don't think they would go back at that high but the weaker dollar makes me think i should probably have more emerging markets exposure. >> by the way, we have much more what's at stake for the markets on the georgia run offs, head to our website to check it out. up next tesla delivering record-number of vehicles in the fourth quarter sending stocks to new high. plus my ron down today but on a tear in the last few months and much more when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money. check out tesla, surging to a new all-time high today after delivering record number of vehicles in the fourth quarter as tesla saoiroared.

quantum space plunging 40% and phil just spoke exclusively with the company's ceo. >> when you talk to the founder of quantum scape and the ceo, he's pretty clear that there are no material changes, not just clear, he's emphatic there are no material changes to the business for quantum scape and believes, their battery technology, solid state lithium battery technology is a game changer. here he is just talking to us last hour. >> if we can get this into the market, which is the task we're focused on, we're making these multi-layer cells we believe we can get a really big share of the market and investors be well-taken care of that's all we can control the long-term valuation. >> he spoke with us exclusively last hour while quantum scape was plunging, shares of tesla

chugging higher, this after reported over the weekend q4 totals, tesla reporting more than 180,000 deliveries, 90% being model 3 or model y here's the focus, the bar on the far right, that's the final number for 2020. coming in at 499,550 vehicles. there's people out there, melissa who are saying wait they targeted half million and didn't hit their delivery guidance, that's less than one tenth of one percent that they fell short. i think essentially they hit the target delivering half million by the way, consensus on fact set, among analysts they believe they will delivery 787,000 vehicles and we will get their q4 financials in three to four weeks from now. >> on quantum scape that went

public in november, where there fundamental changes when the stock went up ten fold to 130 and change. >> you mean in terms of -- >> -- in terms of the technology, any developments >> no. now you will hear people online who said, look, they had a release in their shares, they filed a s1 last week all of is that was known it's not like new information came out and people said whoa, where did this come from this speaks to the broader question we've discussed in the past, this stock ran so far so quickly that it was due to come back and the momentum on the upside became momentum on the down side. >> absolutely. phil, thank you. bonawyn, i don't know where you want to go with this i asked that question because i was trying to get at what powered that stock higher, it sounded like not much, except momentum in the market

>> yeah, i'm not sure if i'm on the wrong show, but do i get a life line? i mean, this is a tell of two cities here. you know is, it's a situation where, listen, if we roll back the clock few years back, even several quarters back, looking at tesla, we all sat up and spoke of the speculative nature of the trading, how it was trading, the options, the stock, et cetera, you're seeing the same in qs why most of us across the table have pounded the table and said listen when you double and triple and see massive ats in the name you have to take chips off the table because it's prude risk management. at this early stage of the company it's about trading and risk management and prudence rather than picking top or bottom or price target i think that's the walk away point from this. >> when i think of the massive run tesla has had, i think of arc innovation etf one of the top performing etf in 2020 and

she's been on this show to talk about how she strayeds on the position from a portfolio management perspective it's pruden the to do so. you got to wouldn'ter what the play is for tesla at this point. wonder what the play is for tesla at this point? >> that's the push back against her if you're so bullish why sell it. she answered it exquisitely a number of times, good for her. as far as i can tell for that stock there's nobody better in terms of analysis. one thing with tesla i've been saying since the spring, stay with it. if you look for reasons to take profits or money off the table or metric or catalyst, i think will come in volume of shares. tesla is trading 40 million shares a day-ish if you see 130 h milton million share day is your

cue to take money off the table. thing about the qs from december went from 50 to 138 back to 50 i mention that because this is not a billion dollar company this is still a 15-billion dollar market cap company. it's staggering, these moves, and it speaks to something much broader in terms of the potential hiccups. >> it's $18 billion. if you can believe it karen, quickly. >> yeah, can i add one thing, kathy's been so right on this but i wonder if the amount of in-flows makes her a buyer regardless of price to get back to whatever percentage she wants to have of tesla, not a seller. >> good point there. coming up we're tackling your questions about today's sell off. if you are wondering what to do next we got your back. tweet us at cnbc fast money and

we'll talk about big option bet today. stay with us "fast money" after this

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welcome back to "fast

money. stocks eeking out a gain in sell offs but ending well off the highs of the day bonawyn with one key name reporting earnings this week, what did you see >> taking a look at micron, calls outpacing puts 3 to 1 after being as high as 4 to 1 earlier in the session kick it up further and look at applied volatility, options moving 9% in either direction in between now and end of january, compared to 5% in last four quarters, much more in line with what we've seen in the last eight quarters the trade that stood out to me, 10,000 of the micron calls traded 85 cents putting your fwraek break about 50% higher than where we are. there's about 50% move on earnings trade expect it to be trade position in next two weeks. >> more options action on

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words. bonawyn, your take on restaurants? >> yeah i like the

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time for the final trades, around the horn, karen >> yes, i want to clarify to john in connecticut i didn't mean to imply in anyway that your question was stupid at all, you did a great trade from may, it's a 100% return, i meant have perspective being down 33 cents. doesn't change the story anyway, this amazon, berkshire, jp morgan disbanded endeavor. >> nice job, john. walmart. also doing a nice job. especially in technology and digital initiative trading 25 times 22 the stock is not expensive and i think the valuation continues to rerate. >> bonawyn. >> the options market as i have been telling you has been heading upwards last couple weeks, slv. >> guy

>> wasn't that a lady gaga song. >> no idea. >> big fan, as you know. she's' fan of the show, by the way, lady g, you should come on one night. met my mission is simple, to make you money i am here to level the plain feel for all investors there is always a bull market some where i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramer america. i am trying to make you some money. it is my job not just to entertain but to educate and put bad days like today in