tv Fast Money CNBC January 7, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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business people and investors about the potential tactical features that president biden might bring. and the stimulus comes along potentially with a new administration so may have been misplaced fear. >> and stability >> we are out of time. "fast money" starts now. >> i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight's lineup -- the last straw social media companies blocking president trump from posting to his account after a mob of supporters entered the white house. and you will hear from one of the most high investors. and micron, fresh commentary
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from the call. but first another record day for the market s&p, nasdaq and dow with all time highs the vix remaining in check at its highest level since late march. all of this playing out on wall street as this plays out in america. 40 criminal cases have been launched in the wake of yesterday's siege. there have been resignations the democratic leader of the house and senate calling for the president to step down immediately following one of the darkest days in history. is this more proof that this record rally is strong guy? >> 100%. proof positive i am not tending to be bullish
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because i am anything but. but we play this game from time to time. if you said all of the things that were going to take place yesterday and said, guy, given that, what do you think will happen i would have said dow down 1,000 points maybe you will see relief valley in the dollar. the gold will rally and vix will rally. none of those things happened. i think people say as horrible as it was, it doesn't have impact on markets, businesses, the economy. i think it more speaks to the fact that the market is so addicted to the hopes of stimulus, the fed balance sheet growing, all of those things impervious, it would be bad for the stock market >> if one was a believer, a
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pullback after the record highs, yesterday gave you every single reason to trim your position while we saw a dip in the market, the yield stayed above 1% as all of this was unfolding, it didn't dent the markets too much >> it didn't, but remember, as crazy as yesterday was, we also had some certainty, which was what the senate would look like. i thought there was a chance of a blue wave that wasn't being priced in and that the market would react to a blue wave by trading down initially and then up on the hopes of a stimulus and infrastructure bill. i think the market was adjusting to that. greater stimulus, certainty. if you look at some of those infrastructu
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infrastructure companies, they were trading up. yesterday was fleeting as terrible as it was i think there was money on the sidelines or tax selling people did at the end of last year to lock in some losses where there were and putting more money to work all that being said it was kind of surprising to see a second day as well. this is setting us up for a big down day, but who knows when i can't predict it, but it will happen >> if you wanted to game out what could have happened yesterday, the worst-case scenario was what? we know that joe biden will be sworn in january 20, so no matter what happens between now and the next two weeks, it's a finite time so maybe the markets are saying -- there is clarity even despite chaos >> i think that is the point
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i think karen and guy nailed it. we do have that clarity. the one negative would be that if biden with the democratic senate said we are going to raise taxes right away that might have spooked investors here i will say this. it has been a volatile week. we started off monday. i think the s&p was down about 2% we are unchanged on the year we are four trading days into the year if you think monday's lows were the lows for the year, you haven't been doing this long even though it seems like a goldilocks year, this selloffs will come quickly. when you think about that september 2 high at 3600, now we are at 3800. we could be back down there in one day. i know we are going to talk about bitcoin and tesla.
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there is a day when bitcoin will be down 10 or 15,000 in one clip what does that do? that is correlated to a lot of the risk assets. there is a lot of overexuberance and there is a lot of reason to ignore them until they don't >> we have had a stellar performance in this young year materials are up 6% for the year, kre up 11% extraordinary moves in a few days >> i have to take this back to 2020 the market is up almost 18% in 47 sessions. let's callthis what it is. it makes almost the last 24 or 48 hours extraordinary the market itself is a discounting mechanism. when we start to process a tax
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hike which will probably come. i don't think is can come in 2021 but to be clear, the multiplier effect from higher taxes is significantly stronger than a one off fiscal bill. so let's not get excited about fiscal in the medium term, that's all the market cares about but in 2022, that's another time to be careful about where we are in the market. but in the short-term, this rotation which i think does have a fair amount to go as we talk about growth into value, why tech companies have head winds, but i think a lot of this continues. this is a broadening of the market a lot of people wanted to see. we come from an extraordinary place to be where we are these are the moments we look back when we have had pullbacks. half of it has been about where we have come from.
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the slope of this is steep >> so is the slope of the up curve and yield. it is a tail wind for banks, guy. but how about being a headwind for tech tim mentioned tech could we see increased legislation or taxes because of that blue wave adding to the potential pile of worries there? >> i do think you will i am hard-pressed to understand why it rallied in such a meaningful way given what you just mentioned about the bond move people will correctly say to a point that this bond move is a good thing, but look at the speed we went from 90 basis points where we were stuck to where we are now it's moving quickly. if you are playing at home, the line in the sand comes at about 155.5 in tlc and you see how
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quickly we moved through that. i think the dollar going lower is bullish until it's not. same thing with the bond move. we are coming precariously close to those things. i understand why people would say -- and i hate the term that's goldilocks. i don't think it will be for much longer. we have some breaking news meg? >> sarepta is creating a gene therapy for must lcular difficuy if i -- dystrophy. they did not show significant
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benefits and you are seeing shares off 53% it jeopardizes the company's ability to seek approval later this year. so heartbreaking story for sarepta. >> this is one trick pony, meg in terms of their pipeline is this the most promising >> it was controversial drug and one that the benefits were not accepted by everybody. so this was the next one that was thought to really have potential to help kids with this disease. so it was -- there was a lot of hope behind it it doesn't mean this drug is done, but it may just mean a delay for sarepta for what they need to prove to bring the drug to fda it is not often we see a drug drop by more than half
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perhaps this is why you say go to ibb instead >> if you look at the 52-week range, 75 to 80 they are now to 180. this is not for the faint of heart. whether it is a one-trick pony or relying on funding for the rest of the business this is the deep end of the pool for a lot of investors and why the biotech pharma, those companies are diversified where you have 5 to 7% positions in companies with great balance sheets that's where most investors who are not in the dope eeep end ofe pool move on >> micron is higher in after
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hours. >> it is higher. there was a big run, up about 60% in the past three months i did check in with mitch at rbc. he calls this a solid quarter. dram expecting 31%. i asked mitch why the bite rating he said supply will be constrained leading to surprise increases. on the call they are going through the markets, what demand looks like cloud ai will drive long-term growth micron is positioned there he did say there was market weakness in the quarter no surprise there micron he's arguing is well positioned to capitalize the work from home trend is
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intact, strong demand. he said dram we have passed the bottom micron will continue to benefit from 5g. back to you. >> guy, micron is in every single market out there. >> you asked how do you trade micron here. we said you close above the 59 high or so before you crash like everything else. now we are at $80 or sho although we don't talk about these names in valuation, i will naen mention that given the earnings growth, there is a chance it continues to go higher from here i understand it has had a huge run.
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josh just alluded to this, but i think you still stay at micron at these levels. >> it's like pricing in dram it has to do with how tight supplies are out there >> the commentary stounds great. we talked about taijui taiwan semiconductors the stock is up 11% already on the year so when you see it to the tune of $22 billion, there is no reason to get off the train. i don't buy stocks like this we talked about it the other day. there was a stock consolidating. i think when you look at these large tech stocks, take a run at some of these stocks that have
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consolidated runs. but i would keep an itchy trig finger i think there will be a down day soon >> we are also tracking boeing and phil lebeau has this story >> this is a finish to the case between doj and doj investigating 737 max. as part of the agreement to end the criminal case, boeing enters a deferred prosecution agreement. basically says we will comply with things that need to be done three years down the road, if we meet all of the terms, this agreement will see the charges being dropped. $2.5 billion is the monetary fine that goes with this it is a settlement, some of that in criminal penalty and some of that going to beneficiaries of
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max customers as well as investors. those who bought in thinking it was certified at certain levels. boeing is saying there were things done that should not have been done. as part of this agreement, somebody is saying shouldn't be there be somebody from the doj to oversight it. that was not done. this was said -- so as a result they did not say we think there should be a compliance oversight committee at boeing, that they have taken a number of steps on their own within the last hour, dave calhoun, the ceo of boeing saying this --
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if you take a look at shares of boeing, we are going to show you back to march 15 of 2015 that's when it was grounded. after the second crash it was grounded it has reentered just in the past week, here in the united states you will see other countries around the world flying the max more frequently in the weeks and months to come this is important because it ends the criminal probe relative to boeing the company relative the 737 max. there is no agreement that other individuals may be charged individuals playing a role in the deception, certainly that is a possibility, but it doesn't appear there will be charges filed at least in terms of the
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doj. >> was this the biggest probe going on >> yes but it was not a surprise. long ago when this first started we knew there was a grand jury looking into this and doj looking into this. everybody said the same thing, ultimately boeing is likely to entered into a deferred prosecution and a $3 billion 2.5 billion, i think that's why you don't see it trading lower it was expected and now they have entered into this agreement with doj >> you talked about market uncertainty. this is another page turned in the saga >> i think calhoun did the right thing. it doesn't fall on him doing the right thing. i also wonder, they may have been reserved nor and may have
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welcome back to fast fast. shares of alibaba, it could be on a banned list it didn't take part in the tech rally we saw tim, you are an investor in this name and have been at least. >> still am. >> that would be a major blow if this actually happens. >> this is a very different headline this is a situation where thank goodness there is liquidity for the stock in hong kong
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that added liquidity was part of the momentum behind the stock to get it to the 320 levels this would be a very big moment and one i think would come with a lot of challenges on both sides. i have to follow this news i think right now there are three or four head winds for the company, the least of which is the financial valuation. i think we talked about it karen pointed it out as well maybe was never in the price i worry a lot about big brother. i worry a lot more about what is going on in china. but if this was two years ago this would have been devastating for this stock i think there is more liquidity for this stock in hong kong than here >> knowing that every day the window passes for the order to be signed, are you hopeful under
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a biden administration, something so draconian would not happen >> more than hopeful i expect that will be the case we were talking about uncertainty. this is a stock that has all kinds of uncertainties surrounding it ant which i don't think is so relevant anymore, but uncertainty about jack ma, not that he's missing, but about his independence and what the government will do to crackdown. all of that doesn't add up to good things when you have that much uncertainty however, i do like the business and valuation. the stock was at 220 at one point and ended up at 231. i think the citigroup came up with a buy recommendation. they like their cloud business i agree with that. i am hanging on as wild a ride
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as it has been this is a business i want to own long-term. >> guy, would you be sticking with this one? >> absolutely. we talked about christmas eve. a huge volume day. we made northeast of the fact it traded three or four times normal volume. i stay with it just to quickly play devil's advocate to karen's hopeful which i totally get, you have to wonder if biden will have to come down hard on china given some of the headlines about he and his family over the last months i just throw that out there. >> the ultimate would you rather bitcoin breaking out with gold getting left behind in the dust. anthony will join us when "fast money" returns
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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin soaring to new highs cracking the $40,000 mark for the first time in history. bitcoin has doubled in the last month while gold is left in the dust anthony joining us happy new year always great to speak with you >> great to speak with you, too. >> j.p. morgan came out with a price on bitcoin one of the thesis was that it may be a replacement for gold.
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now it is store value. can it continue at the pace with just one thesis. >> why is j.p. morgan so conservative we talk about 10 x improvement in profit. if you think of a bitcoin product that is 2x better, that would put bitcoin at a million dollars a coin when i say those numbers, they shock people but both gold and bitcoin are sound money principles gold is the analog and bitcoin is the digital there is not a single product to replace them the digital product is always bigger i think it is a foregone conclusion it is going to flip gold, but
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the question is how much bigger will it be i don't think we know. it is a foregone conclusion that not only is bitcoin a 10x improvement on gold -- >> how does that $1 million price target change. right now we are talking about a replacement for gold in the corporate world it is a replacement for cash with what is going on with the u.s. dollar would that be a kicker with the price tart so jaw dropping >> today it is about a 20x the other piece of this that is important to understand is that every single corporation outside the u.s. is going to put bitcoin in their economy we are watching around the world being stuffed with liquidity i think bitcoin is just being
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underestimated the fact that every single company publicly traded or private is going to wind up putting bitcoin in the treasury, that is a wall of demand people aren't accounting for. wall street institutions haven't shown up bitcoin traders don't want to sell the bitcoin so there is a balance between supply and demand. it has led to rapid price increase when corporations show up, they will have to bid it higher and higher it's important to talk about there will be volatility along the way. sometimes they will be rapid and sometimes prolonged. but over a long period of time, saying that bitcoin will be market capped, i think it will eclipse sometime between 2020
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and 2030 it will happen. >> that makes sense. a lot of our viewers are stock market investors and interested in the price action for bitcoin and you make a very good point for it but the last two selloffs we have seen bitcoin get happenedered back in 2018 bitcoin got cut in half then when we sold off this year, bitcoin dropped at a 62% decline. granted it is far higher here, but do you expect that sort of volatility going forward >> we have to separate out over long periods of time, bitcoin is a nonsi metric asset. gold sold off, bitcoin sold off. i think there can be levels of correlation in short periods of time where is there are high
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degrees of uncertainty but over a long period of time bitcoin has proven to not only be noncorrelated if you are looking for places to put your money and you don't have bitcoin, i think you are making a mistake you have to get exposure to this as set and you have to have a long time preference >> thank you always nice to speak to you. karen, what did you think of that what would you think if a company you owned, let's say apple, was going to put money into bitcoin >> i would be a little bit surprised, but how much? 2% >> yes, let's say 2%
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>> let's say the 2%. that wouldn't change the apple story for me they are risking one out of 2% if you are in apple because of 1%, it wouldn't change the story for me i believe we could start seeing that we just seen a little bit. we have seen square. that trading today was a little scary for me to me it looks like a frothy short-term top but i am not going to trade around it. i do a terrible job doing that i am going to hold it and let this thing play out. i think there is more room to run. >> coca-cola having a tough week details next and social media cracking down
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in as many days. coke shares down nearly 9% this week alone guy, there are many reasons for this various downgrades, tax dispute with the irs, also the recovery may take longer, so reopening with exposure to restaurants and live events. are you on board with all of these downgrades >> the hits keep on coming the hope of a reopen trade for coca-cola got shut down quickly with what we have been seeing. that was leg one leg two, this irs problem. i think going back to 2008 and 2009 with the taxes owed i will say this. in terms of valuation, you are getting it here at a trough multiple especially compared to pepsi. we have said for a long time pepsi is a better company and
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stock, but at a certain point coke makes sense it might be here i get it the head winds are out here, but you wonder how much of it is baked in >> tim, are you still in coke? >> i am, but i have trimmed the position over the last couple months because the higher rate hurts the company. remember when we talked about them discontinuing tab >> is that why you trimmed, no more tab >> or why we are trim, mel but the bottom line is you have a company after a 9% pullback for a low val company, i think coke has proven over the last five years they have done a great job of investing they are not afraid to get into the sexy part of the carbonated world and water world and so
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forth. i would be adding to it there. >> remember when you and dan had this deep discussion about fizzy sugar water? >> i love the product, mel i think it's amazing it probably adds about 10% to my whole situation from 20 years of drinking the stuff this stock has filled in that entire gap from early november when we got the vaccine news when you have a pile on from four analysts, they are not generally in herds like this so as a fast money trade i think you take it and bid it and play for a move back towards 55 and possible recovery if investors start looking. >> president trump's social media accounts seized. the fallout.
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welcome back to "fast money. fresh fallout following the siege on yesterday's capitol twitter, facebook and snap block president trump. >> they take the unprecedented step of blocking president trump from posting at least through the inauguration it was said that -- this comes after facebook drew criticism for not quickly shutting down a group called red state cessation that members should be prepared to use force.
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yesterday that account was blocked indefinitely twitter for the first time locked president trump's account for three tweets on inciting policy and misinformation. they said he deleted the tweets which started a 12-hour clock. but trump was warned he would be permanently suspended if he continues with misinformation. >> youtube also said they would suspend channels without warning. >> julia, thank you. for more on what this means for social stock, let's bring in gene always great to get your thoughts twitter was down almost 2% today. why do you think that was?
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it should be at the end of the day the same truths are still in place here, that investors are slowly piecing this together that these platforms are toxic, also addictive and i think that plays into why they keep growing their base and user ship, but specifically around twitter, the stock has had a bigger move recently i just continue to anchor this topic more broadly, whether facebook was up 2% today or down 2%, it doesn't change the big picture here and the big picture is that consumers are going to aggressively engage in these platforms. the reach is unprecedented there will be wonderful ad businesses but unfortunately for twitter and facebook is that their multiples will be pressured. investors are going to get tired
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of this. this is deja vu. this topic comes up every three months eventually because of the topic recurring, it is begging a bigger question for all investors around these social companies. what are they doing that's transformative if you look at facebook and twitter, they haven't done anything i can go into it and i think that will weigh in on the multiple it hit facebook today and i think it will hit twitter tomorrow the actions they took while the actions took place, what more could be legislated to prevent
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this >> you and the traders have outlined over many months, this is the problem what more could they have done the more you do, the more pushback you get from people who feel there is censorship if regulated they become a publisher. if they become a publisher, there is new regulation. it is very straightforward in my mind social structurally is broken. that doesn't mean these companies can't grow their ad businesses, but i don't think there is a lot to do maybe just to bring to a forward thought is what that means is we are going to continue to be in these deja vu moments around these platforms for a long time. what i suspect is that eventually they will get more regulation and have better rules, take a couple years to get clarity to it. if people don't feel their voices are being heard, they will go to smaller platforms,
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the tribalism will grow into smaller platforms. they will grow and be patted down and i think it will be whack-a-mole >> something we have talked about and i think it bears repeating. i thought, correctly or incorrectly, that the exitential is happening >> i think it is morrell i think that's part of the reason why you have seen companies like facebook underperform in nasdaq in the past year. it will become a bigger topic. we will hear more about that every time this topic comes up, socially relevant investing will
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come up as well. i see that as a headwind for facebook and twitter >> gene, thank you dan nathan, what did you make of twitter's price action relative to the other companies >> i think it's going lower. i think goene hit on a couple of things in late october, early november when the stock was down 20%, in one day, after their q3 earnings the company is not innovating and weren't growing their daily active users they did rebound their ad growth they had 20 million users they added. if they kick trump off and after the inauguration all of the maga people lead, are they going to be able to add users, justify the rate and the last point, this will be
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a toxic situation, bipartisan here jack dorsey and the crew had a tough decision i pulled the plug on this one. i don't think there is a clear path for them forward to justify valuation. they have grown their average on sales over the last five years, probably low teens or so the hypergrowth period is over and they don't have more than 2 million active growth users or however they measure them. this thing is toast to me. >> coming up, the 1.5 billion investment that turned into a nearly 5 billion gain for one stock. andie lon musk just took the lead against jeff bay zoes a "" i really need to start adding "less to cart" and "more to savings."
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at the top of the hour michael, what did you see after the interesting day in the vix. >> yesterday we saw the vix declining. you can see from a relatively elevated level it came in quite a lot through the day. as the events in d.c. unfolded, we saw a sharp spike, almost instantaneously. typically it will drop about 1% when the s&p drops about 1%. so that is fairly notable. by the end of the day some of that gave back if you look at the vix term structure, not only is it lower than where it was yesterday, but it's lower than where it was a week ago bearing out this bullish sentiment we are seeing is the fact that the put call ratio was about .5 one of the areas was in spy
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time for the final trade tim? >> we haven't talked about banks yet. can you buy it tomorrow. but citibank, i think the operational leverage they have to whatever growth is out there, citibank >> dan nathan? >> i think tim is right. i think you can look for a move of coke back above 50. >> liking the sugar water. karen? >> i like morgan stanley remember when they did that e trade deal how great is that? i like the way they are changing their business morgan stanley >> guy
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>> great trade by the mets, getting lindor >> yes, francisco lindor see, i knew that >> speechless. do you have a trade? >> amd, amd. >> see you more "fast." "mad money" starts right now hey i'm cramer welcome to "mad money" welcome to cra-america people want to make friends i'm trying to make you money my job is not just entertain but educate, teach you, put it all in context call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. got a lot to talk about tonight including how can this market hit record highs today after what happened in washington yesterday? with the dow gaining 212 points, s&p jumping 1.48%, and the nasdaq pole vaulting 2.56%, made up a lot of the ground from yesterday. so you got to ask,
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