's tempting to say that this is a city built on music, but in reality, it's built by the people who make the music and by the people whose businesses help take us along for the ride. good morning, everybody. welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european markets are lower in early trade with the dax leading losses while u.s. futures are set to open in the red after a record session on wall street to end last week. sterling sinks as the uk's chief medical adviser says one person in 20 has the coronavirus in some parts of london, warning the worst weeks are still to come u.s. democrats prepare to

move forward with articles of impeachment against president trump. potentially making him the only president in history to impeached twice. and daimler says it expects the pandemic to hit demand in the first half of the year but ceo tells cnbc in an exclusive interview that the german kafmaker still hopes to hit an increase in annual sales. >> we have to calculate with the first six months of the year, still having disruption here and there. we have to be flexible and deal with those things. but the underlying demand we felt coming back in the second half of 2020, that underlying demand, we see that also in 2021 awe very warm welcome to "street signs," happy monday a fresh trading week under way, kicking off an hour ago. we started off the week on a back foot. a bit of a retreat this morning.

the stoxx 600 down 0.4%. let's put this into context. last week was a very strong week for european and u.s. markets. the european market having its best week since november with the stoxx 600 gaining about 3% that reflation trade taking hold yet again as investors price in the prospect of more fiscal stimulus from the u.s. and what all of that means for the global economy, as well as watching the vaccines roll out into high gear in europe and the united states. let's take a look at the regional split, what the markets look like this morning fairly evenly split losses across the board the dax is leading the way lower, down about 0.6% here in the uk, the ftse 100 down 0.3%. we're seeing a pullback in sterling as well as the ftse 100.

the chief medical adviser offering some pretty sobering comments around the state of coronavirus in the united kingdom, saying 1 in 20 people in parts of london currently have coronavirus so, just an indication there of how severe the situation remains as they race against the clock to get these vaccinations rolled out. the swiss market outperforming a little bit, showing some resilience this morning. just a touch below the fat line. looking at sectors, let's take a look at what the split looks like the majority of sectors are trading down this morning. utilities down 1.3%. the underperformer of the morning. we've also got the cyclical sectors taking a bit of a hit. travel and leisure down 1.1% at the top of the board, telecom trading up 0.2%. banks leading the way up about 0.4% let's take a look at treasuries. last week the big story was the move higher. we saw in treasury yields on the back of that -- on news that the democrats have taken a slim majority in the senate after the georgia runoff elections meaning

that joe biden will have the white house and both houses of congress, house and senate, leaning democrat that means we're more likely to see a greater stimulus package come through that's what investors are betting on this year we got the ten-year holding flat on the long end of the curve, the 30-year trading around 1.87% finally, lease tat's take a loot u.s. futures we're looking at a pullback, not quite as severe as earlier on. the dow set to open about 150 points lower if these levels hold the tech-heavy nasdaq looking to open 45 points lower and the s&p looking to open a touch lower as well that comes after the record close on friday with the nasdaq outperforming, gaining about 1% for the week that index gaping about 2.4% the real story last week in terms of divergence was small cap index, russell 2000

outperforming, gaining nearly 6% we'll see if that trend continues this week. another major story on the political front, democrats are pushing to remove president trump from office after last week's deadly assault on the u.s. capitol nancy pelosi says the house will first vote to push vice president mike pence to invoke the 25th amendment if he does not, the house will proceed with impeachment, perhaps making president trump the only president in history to be impeached twice pat toomey has joined a handful of republicans calling for trump's impeach but but on "meet the press" he said there wasn't enough time for congress to impeach trump before he leaves office. >> the president spiralled down into a kind of madness that was different. i'm sorry if people don't acknowledge that i think what he did this past week is wildly different from the offensive tweets that were

common during his presidency i don't think those tweets clearly indicated that this was coming >> meanwhile, former white house chief of staff mick mulvaney, who resigned last week, says the president crossed a line he never crossed before >> wednesday was a fundamental threat to the united states and speaks to what makes us american it's an existential type of thing. it's not superficial it's deep and it's real and it's different, which is why you saw so many resignations this week and didn't see them over the course of the last couple years. wednesday changed everything >> twitter has banned president trump for life the social need yeah giant says after reviewing the president's recent tweets, it took the move to, quote, reduce the risk of inciting violence. facebook and instagram he's blocked for at least the next two weeks. the u.s. economy saw its first monthly job losses since april with nonfarm payrolls

falling by 14,000 in december. virus-sensitive industries such as hospitality continued to be the worst hit. unemployment remains steady at 6.7%, in line with expectations. china'sfactory prices fell at their slowest pace as china's manufacturing sector continues to recover from the pandemic the producer price index fell by 0.4% year-on-year which was less than expected while consumer prices returned to growth after an unexpected fall in november to talk markets, the head of global equities at aviva investors joins me now great to have you on the program. we're opening up this week after a record close for wall street on friday. european markets advancing as strongly last week with the stoxx 600 gaining about 3% with the reflation trade taking hold.

you have to be more and more selective as time goes by. there are a lot of interesting changes happening in the economy, both recovery type changes and more structural underlying changes they present opportunities increasingly those changes are well publicized, like renewable energy, electric vehicles, digitization of enterprise they champion the stocks behind those changes, the ones you immediately think of in relation to those themes. shall we say, well liked it's harder and harder to make a fundamental case for values still remaining in those names you have to look broader, deeper in the supply chain into stocks where more lateral implications are still mispriced. >> perhaps before getting into some of your top picks in more detail when it comes to those

sectors, more broadly looking at markets, the big story last week was the move higher in treasury yields with the ten-year trading above 1% now is there a level when it comes to yields where equities begin to take a hit. this has supported the appreciation of growth stocks, the trend we've seen throughout 2020 >> that's a great point and highlights the dichotomy within the equities just speaking that trend, that change around the interest rates, yes, there are some segments high growth, highly valued stocks where you can justify their valuation today saying they're still affordable relative to the bonds. a lot of market commentators are making those statements. at the same time if you look at banks, obviously interest rate sensitive, you can say, what is

the reason to dislike banks in the beginning of the pandemic? there were three hits to the banks. interest rates, margins were going down because interest rates ollapsed there was a risk of credit losses because the economy was going into recession and in many regions they were prohibited or limited to pay dividends i feel like in those three categories, three threats, if you like, the dividends are being relaxed. the credit losses are -- at least we see some kind of end to this pandemic. the road map is still there until the end of the pandemic. there's a degree of backstop for how much credit losses the banking industry will suffer and now interest rates are startsing to look promising. so, right here, you're right that at the high growth, high value -- high valuation stocks, normalization of something rates is a threat. on the interest rates, banking in particular, it's an opportunity.

>> interesting would you say that banks rank as one of your top sectors if not the top sector to be looking at for 2021 >> it's certainly something investors need to work on. we have some positions in the space. there's still -- you know, there are structures left behind in the rally. they're a long way down in some cases from prepandemic levels. and it just feels investors aren't looking that way as much. whatever is changing in those companies is less likely to be understood by investors in a timely manner because everyone is too busy looking at software and other hotter sectors. >> it certainly looks like investors are busy looking at the top five tech stocks in the u.s. one of the interesting trends that came through last week was the outperformance of small caps perhaps because people are becoming increasingly aware that there are other stocks available outside of these tech giants we have the russell 2000 gaining

nearly 6% last week. is there a trade to be made in small caps versus large caps this year? >> the way i invest, the way we invest is less about making those top-down judgments i'm unable to comment on small cap. where we've been finding opportunities, that's conformed to that framework. if you look at apple, they're having a great time. services is growing. the new phone is very successful and it captures the 5g wave of adoption that we think is very promising. we find more opportunities in the apple supply chain than in apple itself those supply chain companies tend to be $5, $10 billion cap companies. on a case-by-case basis we see evidence of what you're describing, but i hesitate to make a market-driven, top-down

call that way. >> fair enough but still useful recommendations there. one of the other major changes kicking on of in 2021 is the change in leadership in washington how should investors be re-evaluating their portfolios against the back drop of a biden administration what are the major policy shifts you're preparing for >> if you asked me this question a couple of weeks ago, i would say, this is looking good. the change will bring a greater degree of stability, which is a normalization to national policy but will not bring the radical changes that some associated with the democratic administration because the mandate the biden administration got wasn't that overwhelming even now in control of both houses with the georgia elections, it's not a mandate that allows them to make radical

changes to things. which in a way is a good thing but also necessitates a more collaborative washington the events last week but that in a little bit of a doubt. i'm hoping as an individual and as an investor that normalization of relations between republicans and democrats will also cure and this will not derail it. >> i guess in a follow-up question to that when it comes to volatility, are you expecting 2021 to be a year of lower volatility relative to 2020 in context of potentially increasing economic-r economic growth expectations as global -- as vaccinations are rolled out >> yes, only inasmuch as the key driver of volatility last year was the pandemic and, you know, who knows

i didn't see that coming i mean, this event comes hopefully once in a generation very few times in a generation i'm hoping that sort of momentous event will not be repeated yes, most economic trends are on the mend the comps, if you like, they'll come easier into the middle of 2021 the economic back drop is much more benign. >> you and the rest of the world, hopefully this is a once in a generation event. thank you for joining us, sharing your views mikhail, head of global equities at aviva. daimler ceo tells cnbc exclusively that the pandemic could put a dent in first half sales.

welcome back to scattered showers sacramento team viewer reported preliminary results for fourth quarter the german software giant says its subscriber base continued to

grow the company says it expects to continue its growth path this year full q4 earnings will be released in early february having a little issue with the chip chart but hopefully we'll get a look at the price action later. easy jet has new five-year loan facility of $8.7 billion the airline said the loan will be secured on aircraft and is underwritten by a syndicate of banks and a partial guarantee from uk export finance schemes easyjet also said it will repay some shorter term debts. shares are trading a little below the flat line, down about 0.8% we're seeing a general pullback in the travel and leisure sector signature aviation, global info partner said it will buy the airline, beating rival bids from black stone and carlisle gip says it plans to delist

signature from the london stock exchange if the takeover is confirmed. in the auto space, daimler ceo ola kallenius says the pandemic will impact sales in the first half of 2021, but speaking exclusively to cnbc, he says they still expect to see an increase in underlying demand thanks in part to strong performance in the key chinese market let's get out to annette who joins us and who conducted this exclusive interview. give us an idea of what daimler's ceo said was in store for 2021. >> actually, they're hoping the momentum from the fourth quarter, which actually saw growth not only in china but also in europe and other areas of the word accept the united states will continue also into

2021 what i found surprising in contrast to other carmakers, they really didn't offer their cars at a discount they kept their prices stability which allows them higher profitability when they change toward more electrifies. for 2021 there's clear optimism but clearly the situation surrounding coronavirus and the lockdowns are also weighing on their outlook. >> if we look at 2020, it was a tale of two halves we had the first half of the year with lockdowns and really shutdowns in some markets where dealers could open needless to say, the market reacted to that. already in the third quarter we could see sales picking up strongly for us based upon our very attractive product portfolio, led by the chinese market this momentum has continued into quarter four we're looking cautiously optimistic at 2021 even though the covid pandemic is not over.

>> the renewed lockdowns are not only affecting europe but also other parts of the world so how is that going to affect your sales forecast? >> i think we have to calculate with the first six months of this year still having some disruption here and there. we have to be flexible and deal with those things. but the underlying demand we felt coming back in the second half of 2020, that underlying demand we see that also in 2021. and the product momentum we have is phenomenal. so the launch of the new s-class whole myriad of electric vehicles coming. that's why we feel confident that 2021 could be april pretty good year of growth. >> many factories have introduced their cars at a discount how have you been doing that and is that sales momentum translating into higher profitability? >> pricing power has been an important part of the strategy

we offer more to our consumers and we charge a little more as well as we have seen the markets continue, we have been very careful on that side as a matter of fact, in terms of discounting, we have pared that back in the second half of 2020 so this is not driven by trying to push offerings into the market it's more of a pull effect as far as mercedes is concerned. >> let's talk about the u.s. market because it's still down in the fourth quarter and it's a very important market. when are you expecting it to recover? >> the united states is still affected by covid. there are no two ways about that as the vaccine rolls out and we return to some level of normty during the next six months, maybe spew the third quarter, we think we'll be coming back inevitably there will be some pent-up demand as well with consumers coming back into the market but maybe we have to be a little more patient than the boom we have seen in china

>> electrified vehicles roughly 8% of daimler's sales, at least in 2020, but they are matching the co2 targets of the european union now. they are confident they are meeting them as well in 2021 currently in that specific market, at least in the luxury segment, the biggest competitor seems to be tesla. and i asked him as well how he sees themselves positioned now with the introduction of that new s-class in an electrified version, which clearly is a competition to tesla take a listen. >> as the original inventor of the automobile pioneering and pushing the bound ris of what's tech logically available, it's in our dna we said, how can we do something that's absolutely spectacular for the new eqs flagship hybrid

car. and the hyperscreen, it's not only like a piece of art but it's also window into a world of digital content. for the driver and for the passenger for that matter. this is a little bit of a game-changer it takes our so-called mbux system to the next level. >> looking at the valuation, tesla just hit a new record high looking at your valuation, it's still far below anywhere where tesla is trading in terms of pe multiples. when are you expecting that to pick up? >> the traditional oems have been watched by the financial market with some caution during this transformation. that will go through this decade and beyond i think what the financial market is looking for here is some proof points for the traditional automakers that they will be able to switch to electric drive train, switch

into digital business model where you have additional revenue streams. if you look at the valuations of some of these tech players, new players coming in with partly very high valuations, that should serve as an inspiration there's more potential out there. >> you were just saying you're moving more into the tech sphere how much prepared are you for demand coming into that market or what do you think about demand actually accelerating also in europe and the united states >> next to the things we know well, to build, frankly, the world's most desirable cars, there are two trends we're doubling down on, electricity and digitization we're pouring billions into these new echnologies. on the digital side with over the air capability, it will open up a new revenue and profit pool

for us we're well under way of capturing these new things this decade is going to be transformative this is where it's all going to happen and we are intent to pick up pace and make the gradient former say deese to go into that new world even steeper. >> in other words, it takes a little more time until we also see that transformation in profitability terms? >> well, if you look at our numbers for the third quarter in a very difficult pandemic year, we were able to already during 2020 produce some very robust cash flows so, we have efficiency efforts going alongside with investing on a very high side into these new technologies it's clearly our goal to do both increase our efforts on efficiency, but at the same time, invest into new technologies we have to do this transformation in a profitable manner we have to go through this transformation in a profitable

manner and in a way be our own venture capitalist we're producing the cash flows that fuel the investments for the future >> bottom line is after a very difficult year last year for carmakers responding to the supply shot, now they're better positioned going into 2021 still it will be a difficult year and still a transformation year for daimler back to you. >> thank you for bringing us that exclusive interview coming up on "street signs," nearly 24 million people around the world have received a covid-19 vaccine we take a closer look at how denmark has vaccinated nearly 2% of its population so far

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european markets are lower in early trade with the dax leading the losses while u.s. futures are set to open in the red after a record session on wall street to end last week sterling sinks as the uk's

chief medical adviser says one person in 20 has the coronavirus in some parts of london, warning the worst weeks are still to come china allows a w.h.o. team access to the country to investigate the origins of the pandemic, having previously refusing to grant authorization. a move beijing says was a misunderstanding u.s. democrats prepare to move forward with articles of impeachment against president trump, potentially making him the only president in history to be impeached twice we're about an hour and a half into the trading session. as you can see beside me, we are seeing a bit of retreat for european markets this comes after a strong week last week when the benchmark stoxx 600 gained 3%, its best

weekly performance since november trading on the back foot, we have the dax about 0.7% lower leading the charge down. the ftse mib in italy down by 0.6% as well the ftse so 0 in the uk is down 0.50%. that comes alongside a pullback this sterling. the most resilient market this morning, the swiss market down just 6 basis points. let's take a look at sterling. we have the british currency down about 0.50% versus the dollar hovering around the 1:35 mark the uk's chief medical adviser was out this morning offering some sobering comments when it comes to the virus, letting us know 1 in 20 people in london currently have coronavirus, warning the worst weeks still lie ahead. perhaps putting a dampener on sentiment for the british currency the euro is trading down.03%

we have red across the board nasdaq looking to open 45 points lower. modest at the moment the dow jones set to open about 150 points or so lower the s&p 500 also looking to open a touch in the red but this comes after a strong session on friday and a strong week the nasdaq outperforming last week, gaining about 2.5% leading the u.s. market higher small caps also having a strong week last week another theme to look out for. the world health organization experts will arrive in china on thursday the team of ten was supposed to start an investigation on the origins of the coronavirus earlier this month but beijing failed to authorize the trip china's foreign ministry called the lack of permits a misunderstanding after the head of the w.h.o. accused china of stalling china has reported its biggest daily rise in covid infections

since july with 103 new cases. provinces at the center of the new outbreak have been placed into lockdown with travel banned the united states continues to see a surge in infections with an average of 245,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths a day the uk posted nearly 55,000 new infections on sunday, marking a slight drop in cases as well as fatalities the uk's chief medical adviser has warned the next few weeks will be the worst of the pandemic so far. adding a return to normal life still remains a long way away. speaking this morning, he described the number of people hospitalized due to coronavirus as, quote, shocking, revealing as many as 1 in 20 are carrying the virus in parts of london nearly 24 million people around the world have received a coronavirus vaccine. standout programs have been

rolled out in israel, which has given first doses to almost 21% of its population. and the uae over 10% of its residents. european governments have come under fire for sluggish vaccination rollouts after holding approvals with countries like france and the netherlands administering fewer than 100,000 doses. denmark has vaccinated nearly 2% of its population, outpacing the rest of the continent. they believe there is one main structural difference between europe's programs. >> infrastructure in terms of man power, in terms of cold chain, in terms of underlying digital support systems and so on, but it is also an element of flattening and not all european union members have planned as we could have hoped for, to be

honest >> senior research fellow in global health at university of southampton joins me now great to have you on the practice many. thank you, sir, for joining. when the vaccine rollouts began, countries, governments put together these very nice curated lists of priority groups of people to voo vaccinate. in the uk that started with the elderly and moved down in increments of five years in the u.s. they prioritized the elderly and front line health workers but all of this came out before the new variant emerges that spreads more rapidly and poses a very big problem for health care systems. do you think the strategies that were devised at the beginning of these rollouts still hold or should governments be considering easing these priority groups somewhat just to maximize how many people actually get these jabs? >> good morning to you yes, i think here in the uk is

an example we have so much pressure on our health services we need to keep vaccinating the population for those that end up in the hospital, which are the elderly and clinically vulnerable and health care workers. i think the uk will continue along that line. with the emergence of the new variant with pressure on people who have to go into their workplace, we may well see some slight changes to planning your coming weeks and months. as for the most vulnerable, we may describe new populations also. >> i was reading an article in "the economist" over the weekend about the rollout plan and they made the argument that governments need to get more creative about ho they're actually distributing these vaccines, opening vaccination

centers through the night, training up lab scientists, dentists to administer the inoculations to get as many jabs as possible into people. do you think the uk needs to be doing more when it comes to actually distributing these vaccines >> i think there is a fairly significant expansion of the vaccine rollout going on but in order to meet the government targets, which is so vaccinate millions of people we need to expand it further and get creative to use new spaces, they're asking for voss to help with the administration of the vaccine process, vaccination steward withes, they are calling them, and there are paid job opportunities to become vaccinators for other health care members of staff who are wanting to join in that could have been done weeks and months ago i think your denmark colleague talked about preparedness. we could have been more prepared

in the uk with regard to vaccine rollout. >> now that we have begun the vaccination of the most vulnerable, when should we start to see hospitalization rates meaningfully decline >> we will start to see hospitalization rates decline in a few weeks' time. i think after easter the picture for the uk and a few european nations will start to look brighter in terms of pressure on the health services but it will be towards the mid to late summer as a minimum before much of the nonvulnerable population will be vaccinated and life can start and resume some level of anoth normality. >> if you look at case numbers in the uk, even in november before the second national lockdown was listed, we already saw case numbers meaningfully increase, when people were largely staying at home. we understand that it spreads a

lot more easily than the previous strains is there something structurally different about how this new strain spreads that we don't yet understand that, perhaps, would help us better control the virus as we await the mass rollout of these vaccines >> well, we still got the scientists looking at how this virus -- this new variant operates compared to the old variants there are theories it can enter the human cells a little easier or you have a higher viral load. that is something my colleagues will be looking at we'll find out more information about that in the coming weeks clearly as you say, numbers were increasing in the uk from late november onwards cases will be going up quite significantly anyway over the last couple of months here in the uk but the new variant has enhanced that increase so it's been on a steep

trajectory upwards, which is worrying as we see that in terms of significant hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19. >> if we could turn -- if i could turn your attention to the vaccine specifically and what we understand so far. last week we got some early signals that the pfizer/biontech protects against this strain the strain found in south africa when it comes to mutations on that particular variant, based on what you know, what is the likelihood that the current vaccines we have do protect against those critical mutations in the south african variant >> again, i'm relying on the opinion of my colleagues who know about this than i do. as far as we're aware, there's no immediate threat from the variants circulates but there is a theoretical risk we will get a vaccine-resistant virus at some point but probably not in the

immediate future i think most people feel we will need to tweak the vaccines we have and to some extent for future variants. again, the particularly mrna vaccines from pfizer and moderna are fairly easy to tweak to update them. it won't be too great a problem. currently we want to get the current levels of covid-19 down across europe before that happens. >> certainly appreciate it i'm picking your brain on a whole host of things relating to the virus. appreciate your insight. perhaps a question closer to your wheelhouse here when it comes to public health, global health, we are looking forward now to fresh phase 3 data from johnson & johnson later this month. what's special about this is it's a one-dose vaccine compared to the two approved by the major economies so far how significant would it be from a global health perspective to have a one-dose vaccine versus

the ones that require two separate jabs? >> it would be very, very useful, indeed we're seeing in the uk that policies have shifted a bit to vaccinate as many people as possible with one dose rather than two doses because of issues around supply and demand we do have a vaccine where the complete and the vaccination was simply that one dose you can vaccinate a lot of people faster. it would likely be cheaper for countries to buy, so particularly useful for low and middle income countries as well. we need to vaccinate the world there's 8 billion people if you need two doses, that's 16 billion doses. if you can vaccinate the world with 8 billion doses that's easier to scale up and roll out across can the planet. >> we'll leave it there. thank you for joining us, senior research fellow in global health, university of southampton. and we'll take a break but i want to tell you our u.s. colleagues will be speaking to a number of pharmaceutical ceos

today and tomorrow as part of the jpmorgan health care conference you can catch those interviews at the times on your screens. when we come back, would eltake a deep dive into. the top risk facing business leaders and policymakers in 2021 that's coming up after this break.

welcome back to "street signs. democrats are pushing to remove president donald trump from office after last week's deadly assault on the u.s. capitol. nancy pelosi says the house will first vote to push vice president mike pence to invoke the 25th amendment if he does not, the house will proceed with legislation on impeachment. nbc's dan shinman filed this report. >> reporter: calls are growing for prrts's resignation or impeachment. nancy pelosi says the house will try to force mike pence and the cabinet to inveeck the 25th amendment. >> donald trump represents a clear and present danger to the health and safety of the

american people as well as our democracy. that's why house democrats are united in demanding and seeking his immediate removal. >> reporter: the house will move to consider articles of impeachment, charging the president with incitement of insurrection a third of the senate calling for the president's resignation or removal after the president's supporters stormed the capitol. >> the president spiralled down into a kind of madness that was different. i'm sorry if people don't acknowledge that >> reporter: in washington sunday, a procession for capitol hill police officer who lost his life after defending the capitol. dan shenman, nbc news. one story i mentioned earlier in the show, i just want to remind you again is this story around twitter the social media giant moved over the weekend to ban president trump for life after reviewing the president's recent tweets it took the move, it said, to,

quote, the risk of further incitement of violence that was the reason for the move now you've got a look at the german listing of twitter, down 7% on the back of this news. president trump, one of the most prolific accounts on twitter, one of the most popular ones investors pricing in what this may mean for the platform. so, down 7% on the frankfurt listing. one to watch on wall street when the u.s. session opens later on today. now, morgan stanley, goldman sachs and jpmorgan have issued filings with the hong kong after a u.s. crackdown on telecos after the hong kong crackdown. the world is facing a fragmented post-pandemic rebound this year posing a key risk to businesses trying to navigate the recovery, according to the latest annual forecast from the consultancy group control risk

it says other top threats include a slow and uneven vaccine rollout emerging cyber threats and fresh tensions between china and the u.s. charles hekker, global reseven director of global risk joins us to discuss this annual report in more detail. great to have you with us, charles. let's quick off with your thoughts on the vaccine rollout and how the fragmented approach to getting these inak inoculati into the public may jeopardize the recovery next year how are you thinking about the impact that developed nations have already begun these vaccinations and developing nations have yet to even secure vaccine supplies in some cases >> that's right. i mean, really, whether we wanted to or not, we'll have to see the pandemic assi the primay dreier of risk, not like lack year where we were tracking

infection rates. what we'll be tracking for 2021 is vaccination rates you're right, this is going to be incredibly fragmented outside the european union, there are only six other countries that have prebooked enough vaccine to cover their entire population. and beyond that there's only the covax facility that only has 92 participants but they say they can only vaccinate around 20% of its member states, of their population what's going to happen in 2021 and we're going to see the development of have and have not countries when it comes to the vaccine rollout. and the more advanced markets will be able to exit the pandemic quicker and more robust fashion, but there will be countries around the world that will either have very limited vaccine capabilities or will have absolutely no vaccine at all in 2021. the challenge for business is

that big international companies are going to have a footprint across all of these different types of countries the fast movers, the media movers and the ones that won't move at all. that's an incredible amount of pressure that's an incredible demand on company structures that are trying to function across all of these different types of scenarios. >> interesting you talk about what this means for companies and given the fact that many companies operate in multiple jurisdictions, one line that stuck out to me in your report this year, underpinning the risks you see, the danger of missing the rebound is a top risk for business in the coming year how do businesses navigate this environment that remains highly uncertain but also minimize the risk they miss out on what could be a bumper year >> you're absolutely right at the very beginning of the pandemic, in sort of march/april last year, we were sitting in on the crisis management calls for all of our clients

and what we saw is that companies that could keep one eye on the crisis management aspect of the pandemic and another eye on ongoing and future business commitments were the companies able to manage these two speeds most effectively. for 2021 it's essentially the same thing you have to at the same time juggle the crisis that's happening in the remaining lms of the pandemic. absolutely not miss the upside everyone understands that probably starting in the second half of the year, there will be a recovery, but for companies that can't get into recovery mode, they're going to miss it that's a significant organizational risk for the second half of the year. >> looking back at 2019, i think it's fair to say that u.s./china relations was one if not the primary drivers of markets, a business decision. 2020 those relations took a

backseat to the pandemic what's in store for 2021 when it comes to relations between washington and beijing with the biden administration in the white house? >> it's funny. if we had had this interview a few days ago i would say, look, american businesses don't have to wake up and check twitter to see how relations are going. we broadly believe you're going to see policy kopt newty in washington versus beijing despite the change in administration bear in mind that basically all of political washington, and that is in the white house and in congress and in the state department, and really across the board is fairly hostile to china. that's not going to change no matter who is in the white house or even who's in control of the senate what we do think is amid these tensions, the next year will probably bring a little bit of feeling around the edges of

where the two countries can cooperate, where they might be able to get along. joe biden is a known entity to china. china is a very well known entity to joe biden. and whatever happens, probably the biggest upside for companies is that we'll all be able to plan once again, because no matter what the relationship is like between the two countries, in the united states it's going to be the product of a relatively open, transparent and institutional policymaking process. we'll see the and understand where washington is going. >> charles, thank you. we'll leave it there thank you for joining us that is it for "street signs. thank you for joining me for today's show i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is coming up in ex ♪ you can go your own way

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. stocks looking to build on their strong start the futures this morning, they're in the red pressure continuing to mount on president trump as lawmakers in the house begin their efforts to remove him from office the very latest from washington. the president also facing a crackdown from big tech companies all across silicon valley they're pulling the plug on his online presence. right here, speeding up the vaccine rollout, officials across the country looking to overcome hurdles a