the next 20 minutes. it's january 19, 2021, "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ hello hello won't you come right in ♪ >> good morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin, and you're going to see the u.s. equity futures this morning are looking pretty powerful at least at this point. dow is indicated up by about 185 points we have been up by a couple hundred points, nasdaq indicated up by 32 and the s&p indicated up by 27 or 28 points. this does come after both the dow and s&p 500 ended down last week for the first time in five weeks. and if you want me to explain why, well, every morning we sit around here trying to make up reasons for why things are higher, why they're lower, but lately almost always why they're higher the only thing i can point to is

janet yellen, the comments coming from her, the former fed chair coming before the senate ylan mui has more on the comments that joe was referencing. that's the only thing i can point to if you got to explain why futures are up this morning. let's take a look at what's happening in the treasury market you'll see that ten-year is yielding 1.116%. joe, andrew, you look around, you got any better reasons as to why we might be looking at this rally today? >> just more of the same, i guess. >> only go up, right >> the default trade, a lot of liquidity. >> yep >> i think that there's kind of a relief, you know, nothing bad happened hopefully nothing bad happens tomorrow, and then, you know, then it's going to be like a, compared to the last four years, i can't imagine it's not going to be calmer i mean, if we don't have a new news cycle -- it wasn't even every day, it was like every six

hours there was a new news cycle, so, it's obviously not going to be like that, and you know, the -- by june, aren't we going to be looking better in ter terms of covid and everything else, i think that's still something people are thinking about too, that's coming, the reopening. i would worry more about -- i would worry just more about how much everything has moved already and buy the rumors sell the news that's what i would worry about for 2021 but, you know, and there's risk on you hear that. you know who uses that a lot on those trading shows we have like "the halftime report." all those traders and the guys at five, guys and gals at five, risk on, risk on, risk on. if you can't say risk on, you're not a trader and risk on means risk on everywhere, stocks, bitcoin,

commodities. >> every time you say that, i think wax on, wax off, that's all i think of. >> but risk on is when you were struggling for what to call it, becky, it's because the risk on trade is happening that's the only reason you need. unless it's going on because then you know what that is it's the risk off trade. >> risk off, yeah. >> have them both ready in your arsenal, and you don't really need anything else, i think. >> meantime, we've got a huge week ahead let's tell you what's on the "squawk" planner because this is a very big week. on the economic front, the bank of japan and ecb hold policy meetings this week, and the u.s., of course we had jobless claims and housing starts on thursday of course a very big week for earnings we're going to hear from bank of america and goldman sachs before the bell today knelt n netflix after the close. and thursday we hear from travelers, intel, and ibm, and then of course in washington it is also a very very big week

president-elect biden is scheduled to be sworn in as president at noontime tomorrow chief of staff ron klain saying the biden is planning a ten-day blitz of executive actions and, for that i'm going to go over to joe who i think is going to go to washington. >> yes, to ylan, ylan mui is going to, i don't know if she has every executive action she's ready to go into but she's going to have the latest on the inauguration, and everything surrounding the inauguration the biden team's plan for a ten-day blitz. we've got that going for us. whatever i'm ready for it, ylan that's what presidents do. i've got a little trepidation with some of it. elections and consequences, and it's coming. keystone, that's going away. i don't know anyway take it away. >> that's right, joe i think that over the next few days that we're going to see is just a real sort of divide and juxtaposition between some of the pomp and circumstance, and then some of the policies

obviously the inaugural ceremony is going to be scaled back we're going to see biden leave delaware and make his way to d.c., not by amtrak because of the heightened security measures tonight he will be at the lincoln memorial for a ceremony honoring those who have lost their lives to covid-19, but in the midst of this pandemic, there's a real desire in the administration to be seen as hitting the ground running, and it's one of the reasons we're going to see five of biden's top nominees have their senate nomination hearings today, including janet yellen for treasury secretary, along with picks for national intelligence, homeland security, and defense secretary. i got an early copy of the opening statement and she plans to make a forceful argument for the $1.9 trillion rescue plan. without further action, we risk a longer and more painful recession now and long-term scarring of the economy later. she also says that with interest rates at historic lows, the

smartest thing we can do now is to act big now, as for that flurry of executive orders that biden is planning within his first few days, many of them will reverse the decisions made by president trump. the latest example came just last night on restricting travel from europe and from brazil. the trump administration had said it planned to lift those restrictions on january 26th, though visitors would have to provide a negative covid test. biden's spokesperson immediately pushed back on that saying the new administration would not lift the ban, and instead she tweeted with the pandemic worsening, the more contagious variants around the world, this is not the time to be lifting restrictions on international travel biden is planning other executive action on immigration, the keystone pipeline, the paris climate accord, the world health organization so the goal of the biden administration is to show here that they're the ones who are serious about governing, back to you guys >> that's quite a list, ylan

but they have telegraphed what's coming out, and just went over a lot. becky, are you waving? i can see you out of the corner of my eye. >> i had a question. you know, it seems like every morning we come in and we talk about some new move that the trump administration is making in the last days, and am i wrong, ylan, in thinking that's a little different than what we would normally see from a lame duck administration or are we just paying more attention this time >> i think certainly there is always an attempt by an outgoing administration to put their final stamp on whatever their policy agenda might have been. i think that in this situation, what is so stark and dramatic is just how quickly those decisions can be reversed. i think the biden administration all along said that they planned to undo many of the executive actions that trump had put in place, and i think this also highlights the sort of volatility of executive order. you know, it used to be that you would legislate these things, right, and you wouldn't have to

take these sort of unilateral steps in order to implement your agenda now we're in an environment where washington is so polarized that this is the only sort of lever that presidents can use in order to enact the policy moves they want to see >> yeah, it's been 12 years of a lot of executive orders. >> absolutely, and that's one of the reasons biden is saying he wants his covid relief package to be bipartisan and move through congress with support from both parties. we'll see if that's a potential reality at all >> ylan, thank you very much great to see you when we come back, we do have much more about what's been happening with the impact of president-elect biden's policy plans, and what will it will mean for your money. plus we've got a huge lineup tomorrow for inauguration day, including investors, mike nov novogratz, and as well as political experts from the left and right. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning for a check on the markets, we want to bring in kevin nick elso at river front investment group. we were talking, i don't know if you heard.

we were trying to make up some reasons why the market looks to be going higher this morning we used the phrase risk on, it seems like that's all anybody wa wants to do right now. would you be risk on, would you say? >> we continue to be risk on we believe the markets are going to go higher because you have so much fiscal stimulus coming, as well as, you know, the fed has been supportive over the last year or so now >> so in terms of how you're thinking about that, you know, we were also talking about the question of whether you should, you know, buy the rumor, sell the news, if you will, which is to say isn't it already built into the market? >> yes, there is a lot that's built into the market. i think that you have to be nimble here. when you look at the s&p 500, you would think that it would be -- when you look at it on a fundamental basis, it looks pretty expensive but when you look at it a relative basis,

relative to fixed income, it actually looks attractive, and so what you're seeing is that the market is really running or rising because of the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds right now, and the fact that you're going to have all of that support and i think that the new treasury secretary, janet yellen has come out and said that we need to make a huge splash here and be supportive of the economy. so i think that that is the backdrop for the rally that you're seeing right now. >> when you talk about not the fundamentals but the relative th nature of this, what would be too high for you at what point would you say, you know what, it's too much >> well, i think that if we saw the market, if you see the s&p get to around, you know, 3,900, and you really haven't seen a

significant move in yields on the fixed income side, especially with the ten-year, i think that that's when i'll start to worry >> in terms of the other big idea right now is everybody is talking about the great rotation, hopefully obviously we get to maybe this summer i don't know, hopefully at least by the fall where the world looks a lot better, do you think the great rotation has already started. do you think it's going to happen, and if so, how and when do you do it . >> well, yeah, you're starting to see some of that rotation happening. with the new administration they're focused on infrastructure that's what everyone has heard, and you start to see industrials and materials start to do better, you start to see energy stocks start to do better as the anticipation of the reopening of the economy, which would obviously increase driver

demand, so i think that some of that rotation has already started to occur, and we will probably continue to see it occur even more as the economy reopens and you stop seeing these selective lock downs >> we're going to get a lot of earnings reports this week would you want to be -- we're going to hear from bank of america shortly, would you want to be in the big banks right now or do you still want to be this the big tech companies >> i think that you have to be in both, actually. i think that there is definitely a rotation with interest rates rising that is attractive for a lot of financials because, you know, they have been under pressure for so long, and now they're actually going to have the possibility of seeing their net interest margins actually rise, and that's a big positive for the banks. >> okay. kevin, it's great to see you

we appreciate you joining us this morning thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> you bet becky? we'd been awaiting bank of america, as you mentioned, and it looks like we do have some breaking news right now for that, so let's get over to wilfred frost. >> they have released their buy back, since the fed allowed them to start doing that, they released the buy back announcement half an hour early. they announced a $3.2 billion buy back and maintainedthat dividend as well at the same pace of $0.18 per share which in total equated to 1.6 billion, so 4.8 dividend plus buy back will be returned to shareholders during the first quarter also details on this release about their capital position overall. they're stating that they have 36 billion in capital above the

minimum requirement. that 36 billion relative to a total of 4.8 going back to shareholders this quarter. we have been expecting a statement of some kind remember, the fed announcement allows them to return the average of their trailing four quarters of earnings in total, and so they have been waiting for fourth quarter earnings to come out, which will come out in half an hour or so time to state a specific number on this. j.p. morgan had said they're going to do 30 billion that's not in the first quarter. that's over the course of the whole year, and i believe their number for the total of q1 was 4.8 or 4.6 or something around that level so similar scale to j.p. morgan, q1 doing the maximum allowed amount based on the fed's rules for bank of america. the shares up a little bit in the premarket, these numbers broadly in line with expectation, which is buy back as much as the fed will allow us to do. >> i was going to ask you that

i didn't see where the stock was trading ahead of this announcement was it already up? we are looking at markets already up this morning. >> i didn't see exactly before the news crossed the key point with all the banks is they were up massively since the start of november coming into earnings. j.p. morgan did just about enough with their numbers to hold that ground and not decline significantly on friday, where as citi and wells fargo were down sharply bank of america numbers, we'll see similar themes to those guys, a change in direction in terms of provisions for bad loans becoming benefits for bad loans. the question is the scale of that change in direction more akin to j.p. morgans, and holding the gains of recent months and disappointing relative to expectations like the market took citi and wells fargo on friday. >> that's a fair point, and high expectations heading into this thank you, we will see you just a little bit later, as you mentioned half hour from now, we'll probably see the results

from bank of america, then we get goldman sachs an hour to an hour and 45 minutes from now it's always a weird range. we'll be watching those numbers and check in later. thanks, beck automotive news, we're going to tell you why tesla is trading higher this morning, and check the shares of the fourth largest auto maker by volume, that you probably haven't heard of, stalantis. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ what do i do when my love is away, ♪ ♪ does it worry you to be alone? ♪ ♪ how do i feel at the end of the day, ♪ ♪ are you sad because you're on your own? ♪ ♪ i get by with a little help from my friends, ♪ ♪ oh, gonna try with a little help from my friends. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. time now for the executive edge. we're watching shares of tesla

as we do basically every day the company has started delivering locally produced model y crossovers in china. tesla built its $2 billion shanghai plant in just over a year, and started delivering model 3 vehicles produced there last year. tesla plans to report fourth quarter earnings next week you're looking at that stock up, risk is on, so all stocks are up this morning joe. >> and we are watching the shares of stellantis in overseas trading. that's the product of the $52 billion merger between fiat chrysler and peugeot, that was just finalized on saturday the combined company will trade on the nyse when the market opens today under the ticker stla stellantis

stla, you know what that's from, you guys, i don't need to say? >> yes, a streetcar named desire. >> if you came across it, would you have said it that way? i couldn't help myself i could not help myself. i saw stla, stellantis, i guess i thought i was taking that. i thought i was taking that for some of the psoriasis, stellantis do you have a prescription for that >> it's an interesting name, is it like stella artwa, and atlantis, where do they come up with this? and how much does it cost. >> some branding guy. >> they got their money's worth. we have already made a big deal about it. >> take it twice a day, and the itching stops. dry skin, stellantis, try it, it's good, ask your doctor. >> helping with your toenail fungus >> yeah, exactly who doesn't have that, i mean,

is there really -- if there was something that worked, we all wouldn't have it, right? i'll rub some stellantis, between my toes. andrew, let's go, we're ready. >> we're going to go to commercial, maybe there's a stellantis commercial, i don't know when we return, we're going to talk about president-elect biden's planned policy blitz, and what it means for your money. we're expecting earnings from bank of america, we heard it in the last couple of minutes, we'll bring you instant reaction, and in the next hour, we're going to hear from goldman sachs, netflix set to report after the closing bell we're rit ckft ts.ghba aerhi ♪ still in my parents' house cu off my t-shirt sleeves ♪ executive edge is sponsored by at&t business our people and network will help keep you connected let's take care of business. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business.

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good morning, u.s. equity futures up more than 200 points, not triple digits up, and then some, and we've decided that that's the default trade that's what you see most mornings you see some green we'll see whether it lasts throughout the day i think it might, guys, have

something to do, becky, did you know, it feels like a monday, but it's not it's a tuesday >> i almost said happy monday at the top of the show. >> i know. and it's a tuesday, so when you realize that, makes me a little happier. >> you feel good you're feeling like a bull. >> that's the way to do the three-day weekends that's the preferred way, i think. isn't it put in your time the first week. >> i agree. >> get the three-day weekend, and then you get a little bit of a bonus the next week as well. that's preferable to where you get the -- >> better than fridays off >> exactly >> a lot going on today and tomorrow >> it is it's getting us closer to inauguration day tomorrow. president-elect biden releasing his $1.9 trillion american rescue plan to try and help offset the impact of the covid-19 pandemic. joining us right now with how his proposal will be received in a 50/50 senate is american enterprise institute fellow jim

pethokoukis, and a cnbc contributor. what do you think, looking at this, watching the $1.9 trillion, knowing it's probably not going to be that big. what do you think eventually works its way out of this? >> yeah, i think a lot of money is going to get spent and i'm 100% sure it will get spent. it's not going to be 1.9 trillion i think the more that the biden administration thinks it can get without republicans, i think the bigger it's going to get we start wanting this thing to be bipartisan, and prefer not to use reconciliation right away, then i think at that point you're getting something under a trillion i think you're not going to get many republican votes if this thing is over a trillion dollars. so no 1.9 trillion stuff in the original package might get pushed off to later. let's not forget, we just passed

a $900 billion bill, and a lot of republicans are looking at that, looking at these forecasts that show the economy should be picking up either way, so that kind of kills the economic rationale a little bit, but still a pretty big bill. >> you know, you look at some of the components, and i would guess the parts that are less partisan would be the issues like the covid vaccine program, additional testing to get that out, the additional ppe when we still have shortages, and maybe the schools, although i don't know if that's going to get contentious, but the big issues are going to be $1,400 direct checks to everybody who's already getting a $600 check, and the state and local government aids, $350 they're targeting for that that's been a political hot potato all along of those two, which do you think would potentially get more bipartisan support >> there are already republicans that are members you can see, who knows, maybe

two bills and the one bill, they think they can get the next republican vote done you mentioned the vaks ccinatio the testing, the $1,400 check, republicans are very skeptical about the state and local as you mentioned. so at some point, democrats have to do that the things that the president i think really absolutely needs to do, they're sort of all in on these checks, the unemployment insurance extension, and at some point they need to do the state and local government, whether they really need 300 or $400 billion i'm a little skeptical of but that has to happen whether it's -- and i think they would prefer to do it in this bill, which means maybe they have to give some republicans some of what they want, whether it's this liability shield we start adding in like extending tax cuts, adding to the complexity of what is a fairly complex legislative process, but they have to give republicans something. >> the minimum wage, i mean,

that's something that doesn't require any federal funding, but i have a hard time thinking that that is something that's going to be easily passed or actually get bipartisan support, particularly when you consider what that would mean for small businesses right now that are already suffering. >> right especially something like that, which you can start pointing to, that's not necessarily sort of stimulus, and you can point to the downside that's not happening right now neighbor that somehow happens, i think, in the second half of this year, part of the biden agenda, and by that point, also the economy is going to start looking a lot better as soon as we get these vaccinations done it can look pretty boomy at some point you're going to see very big gdp numbers whatever concerns you have about the downside, this economy is booming, don't worry about it. >> jim, thank you, i think that's a quick precursor of what

we're seeing but i think you're probably right on a lot of what gets left out and what gets negotiated later thank you for joining us, and we'll talk to you again soon social media platform parler has resurfaced the company's web site is now back online thanks in part to support from a russian-owned technology company amazon stopped providing its cloud hosting services following the deadly riots at the u.s. capitol. speaking over the eekend, parler ceo said he's confident the site will be fully up by the end of the month whatsapp remains banned from google and from the apple app stores so you can't make this stuff up. so it's back up. help from the russians >> help from the russians. you know, this is a site that helps the russian defense ministry, so you tell me whether you think that ted cruz and his friends are going to spend their time on a site that's ultimately controlled by the russians, i

mean, i don't know >> yeah, i don't know. i was reading something about mental health and social media sites. it was just this morning, and i was like, you know what, i get that, and we're going to talk to arthur brooks about it, definitely the tribalism i don't know how it finally shakes out i don't know how it finally shakes out >> it's something that we were talking -- i think it ties back to just how separated we are, and how divided we are, and how little crossover there is. when ylan mui was talking about, yes, they have to rely, the presidents have had to rely on executive order for a long time because they can't get anything passed through the legislature, so you get big swings with things, and i wish we could get back to a point where we could find more common ground in the middle, instead of one side saying it's our way, the other side saying it's their way >> the chicken and the egg, did

we come to the conclusion. >> it has to be the chicken first, because who sat on the egg? >> my point is twitter an accurate reflection of where we are or does twitter totally make things ten times worse than they would be. >> yes >> i don't think it's an accurate reflection, i think it's part of the problem. >> i don't either. but i agree with you 100%. you take yourself off the twitter for a while, you feel better. >> i think sadly it's more of where we are, given what we saw in washington a week or two weeks ago. i do and i think it's -- >> i think people are better than they look on twitter. >> and a lot of social media companies are responsible for it, so that's, i think -- >> so you do think it's twitter. >> accelerating. >> yeah, yeah, definitely accelerating. >> i think it's accelerated it but i don't -- i wish, look, i hope life is a little bit better than twitter i think our day-to-day life is a little bit better than twitter, but i think there's something going on here that's not good. >> i think people are better than twitter. >> think if you were out person

to person and did the stuff you see on twitter to someone that you saw. >> and said the things you say on twitter >> just think about if you saw someone, it would be like, i mean, we would be at each other's throats nonstop. you couldn't go to the store you couldn't go to the store if you acted at the store like you do on twitter, i think bad, anonymous. >> acted in kindergarten like that, you would get tossed out. >> we got a lot more coming up when we come back, what to expect from the big bank results, we're going to give you the numbers as soon as they cross the tape, and a reminder, you can watch and listen to us live anytime on the cnbc app we're back after this. want to make a name for yourself in gaming? then make a name for yourself. even if your office, and bank balance are... far from glamorous. that means expensing nothing but pizza. your expenses look good, and your books are set for the month! ...going up against this guy... and pitching your idea 100 times. no, no, no! no. i like it. -he likes it!

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. welcome back to "squawk box. the equity markets look strong this morning up 211 points on the dow as we have seen the nasdaq sharply higher in the green, up 135 points and the s&p indicated up about 31 we're getting a lot of quarterly results this week especially but today results from bank of america due in just the next couple of minutes. we'll bring you those numbers as soon as they hit the tape. we've got goldman sacks and real flood gates will open for the next couple of weeks still to come, we're going to talk about problems with the vaccine rollout, and why some states are trying to cut out the federal government

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welcome back another quick look at the futures as we await bank of america, which should be out momentarily if you believe the company. 6:45 we're expecting it. we are awaiting those results. meantime, as we wait, let's bring in mike santoli, our senior markets commentator, and liz young, director of market strategy, cnbc contributor i see one thing that speaks to me, liz, and that is we talked about, you know, why not buy the rumor and sell the news when the world gets better in a few

months you point out don't fight momentum in trends when the future is brighter than the present. so that speaks against, well, we're going to have to wait because now, guess what, we got bank of america, so you're going to have a really considerate answer when we get back, liz let's get to wilfred frost the numbers finally hit. >> yeah, so revenue a fraction behind, 20.2 billion, forecast is 20.7. eps ahead, so $0.59 a share, forecast was for $0.55 a share key theme is like all the banks but not to the same scale as say j.p. morgan on friday, and that's a change in direction for their reserves, rather than the reserve build has been the norm from q1 to q2 and q3, seeing a reserve released to the tune of 800 million, though on the provisions line in the balance sheet there is still a provision, a positive provision

for bad loans, though much lower than expected forecast around a billion coming in at 50 million. though some of the other banks did see a benefit on that line rather than another provision. but either way, key change in direction as we saw with the other banks. we look at net interest income, that is at 10.4 billion, a little higher than expected at 10.3 billion, and importantly coming off the bottom there suggesting q3 was 10.2, so quarter over quarter, slight improvement in net income interest, and the margin, the interest margin, a little behind forecast 1.71%, i guess a pickup in loans or along those lines. noninterest income, a little bit of a miss, that's where the revenue misses come through, 9.8 billion. the forecast was 10.3. they had strong equity trading revenue at 1.3 strong investment banking at 1.9. a little bit soft on the fixed income trading at 1.7. the forecast was for 2 billion and also a little look at the

expenses line, 13.9 billion, the forecast 13.7. so not a massive aspect there but we'll want to see expenses continue to slide down, has been the norm for the last five or six years when things go back to normal next year the key, again, both on net interest income which is important for them, and credit costs is a change in direction, a meaningful change in direction, perhaps not quite the scale of change in direction as j.p. morgan's on friday. the shares are up 1.5% or so in the pre-market, of course they announced that buyback as well which was the maximum permitted buyback. this bank traded down 3% on friday, compared to j.p. morgan down 2%, and citi and wells fargo down 7%. just climbing down a little bit of those friday losses, up 40% or so since the start of novel. >> okay, wilf. did you tell me leicester city

pl plays chelsea at 3:30. >> but you should not watch that because you should be watching "closing bell,". >> but i was going to bet on it. you know what's weird about betting on the premier league, the money on both leagues is a tie because a tie is possible too. i have to get a totally different perspective. >> no nil draws are the stuff of dreams. >> okay. keep me updated, will you manchester city is playing text me, what i should do, in case i want to get a little action there let's get to mike santoli and liz young. liz, my point was, we've had a lot of i think trading in the equity markets based on a more positive future. cyclical reopening trades, all that stuff you think just don't be too clever, the future is going to get better, the momentum is that way, just go with it >> in some cases, yes.

and the reason that i say that is because if you look at the flows into sectors, especially financials and energy, there is some concern that the flows have been so strong so that means we're set for a pull back. if you just take financials first and look that the fact that the market is a discounting mechanism, always looking forward, the things that are a tailwind, we expect the yield curve to steepen, net interest to go up over the course of 2021, the fact that they're allowed to do stock buy backs, the fact that investors are thirsty for any type of guidance and loan loss provisions just because the flows have been high, doesn't mean you have to exit i think the energy trade is a different story and that's a little bit more of a temporary boost to profits, a temporary boost to the share prices as the economy reopens but then it probably dies off again later in the year.

>> mike, do you want to weigh in on the notion that we do -- the market does get discount ahead to better times. when do we know that it's fully priced in? you never do. >> you never do. first of all, it's not a moment. there's not going to be some daily come in and say now is the back to normal moment. over the course of months and weeks we're going to have that push/pull between a lot of things saying banks don't look all that cheap right now relative to how they've traded over the last five years based on the numbers they're putting up today or this year. i think you can have that argument about whether we've built in a lot in terms of banks. when you have a mania going on in start up fintech on the fact that they're going to eat the lunch of the banks, how much are we promising in terms of earnings all of that makes sense. it's a bull market when earnings estimates are going up in aggregate and when you do have this broad participation in a rally, yeah, it's very difficult to make a call to say now is the moment

when it's going to end obviously everyone has their eyes on all of this speculative stuff happening because that has nothing to do with the pricing it has to do with the excitement of short term gains, all of that stuff is happening off to the side of the market's eke no, ma'am miss discounting going. >> liz, we can't know exactly what's going to happen taxes are probably going up and regulations are going up and the debt is going up and janet yellen says go bigly -- bigly, i think that is a word now go bigly or go home so, i mean, there are -- those things seem like clouds on the horizon to most people unless we just have free money forever >> sounds like the makings of a pretty helpful wall of worry >> go ahead liz. >> it is a big wall of worry i think the investors are looking at the hand in front of their face they're going to get big fiscal

spending and support in the first six months of the year and that overpowers the fear of tax hikes and regulations. i also don't think what was originally proposed by the biden campaign back in the fall, excuse me, is not actually going to get through some of that stuff that the market got so worried and jittery about, it will be a watered down version of that that wall of worry isn't something investors are trying to climb until the second half of this year, maybe towards the end of next year. >> the big tech, big valuations, they can't double again. i guess they could you've seen a lot of moves in the favorites, haven't you stay in them, liz? >> you have seen a lot of moves in the favorites mike can probably add a little bit more color to this usually when you think about the spread between the winners and the losers, you can look at narrow market leadership and broader market leadership. pick your poison what we're seeing right now in the market is that leadership is

broadening out, which makes it more durable makes a rally more durable when you get pullbacks there are things underneath the surface of the market to hold it up and create buying opportunities. when you have narrow leadership like we saw in 2020, the market is more susceptible. it's a little bit more fragile i'll take this where we have a little bit more giveback and a broadening out of strengths. hopefully as we move through the year even if we hit some bumps you have enough support from other sectors, particularly the cyclical sectors. >> mike, would you be surprised if it was all faang all the time again in 2021? >> i would be surprised if it was all faang. those stocks have done almost nothing for four months, five months, something like that right now. their valuations, when the companies are still growing, the valuations have moderated to some degree. especially when you look at how the rest of the market has started to get pretty richly valued, all of a sudden it will

seem like a logical thing to go back to that balance especially if we get some chop, if we have a bit of a pull back. >> okay. all right, santoli thank you. liz young, thanks. always good to have you on the program. we'll see you again soon some of these things will come into clear focus, i think. we get through tomorrow, get some vaccines and then we'll see. thanks we will talk more about the banks in the next hour when goldman sachs reports. we'll get that going for us, becky. which is nice. >> we haven't talked much about covid but we are seeing the vaccinations continue to roll out. cross your fingers on that getting close to 1 million vaccinations a day my parents got appointments, my mom february, my dad march looking forward to that. these are things we keep waiting on. >> the more jabs the better. i don't think -- if you are walking by and they say, hey, we've got some in the bottle of this vile, go on in.

>> did you see that there were -- they think thousands and thousands of doses have been thrown out because doctors have been afraid to give the extra doses, the ones left at the bottom somebody doesn't show up they'd rather throw it out than actually be in the situation of being accused of somebody j jumping the line. >> the screwups, you know, it's like murphy's law. >> it was an nbc report that looked into it >> give them to anybody. that's my thought, too when we come back, here's where the futures stand after bank of america's report we had already seen the futures up by almost 200 points. now it's just above that dow futures up by 207 points s&p futures up by 30 points. nasdaq up by 133 arthur brooks is going to be with us in the next hour you don't want to miss what he has to say about tomorrow's inauguration a wndhat investors should be watching for "squawk box" will be right back. strengthening client confidence in you.

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plus, the latest on the battle against covid-19 and the distribution snags that are holding things up. dr. scott gottleib will be our guest as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen on a tuesday morning, not a monday morning, but a tuesday morning. let's show you u.s. equity futures at this hour right now you're looking at green arrows across the board. we've been discussing the risk on trade all morning dow up 203 points. nasdaq opening up 133 points higher and the s&p 500 looking to open about 30 points higher becky? >> thanks, andrew. earnings kick into high gear this week. that along with president-elect

joe biden's inauguration means there is a lot for investors to try and digest mike santoli joins us with what investors need to be watching. mike, probably a pretty long look at things we need to be on the lookout for? >> yeah, completely. a lot of what investors or traders are looking for is how markets behave here you talk about what exactly is causing this little pop in the pre-market well, the market -- the s&p 500 has traded above 3800 like every day for the last ten days except for friday so it traded there with ten days ago news, now it's trading there. here's this little kind of very narrow kind of up trend that we've been in for a little while. this sort of trend channel that you can talk about and it basically just came down to the bottom end of it. we'll see if it can oscillate higher here's another dynamic that's going on which is the s&p 500 has actually been somewhat side lined in the latest phase of the rally. this is the s&p completion index

everything in the rally. it includes small caps and high market value new companies whether it's snowflake, airbnb, everything out there except for the 500 stocks look how it had liftoff right around the election, right as soon as we had the rotation into smaller stocks, cyclical stocks and also a lot of high growth, more emerging names that everybody is so excited about. this has been the dynamic for a while. this has the s&p in its control over the summer. they've been more or less sideways to down it's an interesting push/pull. the banks as we have all of the numbers coming out very strong obviously vertical move that we see right here. this is a very, very broad range we've traded in over the last five years i want to bring your attention to this move after the 2016 election we did have this huge vast repricing based on growth friendly policies, based on the idea the economy was going to grow at a faster pace.

doesn't that sound familiar? we'll see if you can work through this mess for the kbw banks index if the numbers support that, becky. >> lee cooper man on tomorrow, he's a long-term investor who's done well and he knows what he's saying and he's usually pretty bullish. this time around he may be a little more cautious than he's been in the past one of the things i think he watches without giving too much away are contrarian indicators there are too many analysts looking for the s&p to drop this year. >> that's true the official projections, all on the bullish side i think many of the other positioning and sentiment indicators, all of it lines up of the idea of a very loved rally. very few people feel this is something that's nearing some kind of a peak so i do think i understand where he's coming from if you want to look at the tactical indicators. it's a headwind to fight through a lot of entrenched optimism

he's valuation sensitive it's very tough to make an argument that the equity market chief unless you're comparing it to bond yields, how do you square that? >> mike, thank you we'll talk to you soon joe, i am looking forward to talking to lee tomorrow. it will be interesting to get his thoughts about all of these things he's looking at now. >> earlier when we were talking about it i almost was going to talk about he's not quite as happy about things as usual. i said, no, maybe i won't. i don't know >> i read his notes that he sent us this morning. >> i did, too. >> it's been playing around in my head. this is definitely an interview people will want to show up for tomorrow. >> no one's predicting 2021 down i go back to what paulsen said in between now and december 31st he was looking for a pretty big pull back when the reopening

trade -- when we reopen and everything's back -- starting to get back to normal, that could be a time when the markets pull back and then end up maybe mid to high single digits higher by the end of the year. it wouldn't be a straight, you know, nice, calm, steady rise. >> rarely is. >> maybe we have some scary times between now and then who knows. bank of america out just a short time ago wilfred frost will give you a lot of advice on twitter on what to do with less. who's going to score the first goal a lot of stuff, wilf a lot of stuff to choose from. >> i'm not the person to ask on that i'll only give you losing tips you're welcome to try them jump back to the bank of america numbers, 20.2 billion. slight miss. eps was a slight beat. credit costs as it has been for the whole of 2020.

they came in on the provision line of 55 million of provisions the forecast had been for a billion. so it's much better than expected but not quite as good, for example, as jp morgan who had a 1.9 billion benefit. all of them showing a change of direction for q4 compared to q1 to 3 it's the size and scale of citi's and wells fargo's for context in q1, 4.8 q3, 4.1 billion. 11.3 billion for bad loans q4 only doing 50 million massive improvement. the key thing for them will be guidance and optimism on net interest income. they're very much geared towards that type of banking and on costs. on the net interest income, importantly we saw a quarter

over quarter improvement it was 10.4 billion this quarter. last quarter 10.3. if we get guidance that it has bottomed, it will improve. rates picking up, loan growth improving. that will be taken as positively the brief statement, which is always short from brian moynihan in the release, does seem to point to that. i think that's what analysts will be looking out for. more details. >> brief statement that is always short that makes sense come back to us with goldman are you going to be around >> i am. 7:30 >> great we will see you. thanks, wh wilf. couple corporate headlines logitech raising 2021 sales forecast during a quarter that saw income triple. meantime, canada will lift its

ban on 737 max jet it joins the u.s. and other countries which have allowed the jet to return to service joe? thanks, andrew coming up, tomorrow's inauguration day we're going to talk washington policy president-elect joe biden's covid relief plan and more. arthur brooks. i don't know, arthur brooks and harvard. that's like antimatter meets matter i don't know he joins us next "squawk box" will be rig bk.htac these days, we want sophisticated but simple. cutting edge made user friendly. in other words, we want a hybrid. and so do retailers. which is why they're going hybrid, with ibm. a hybrid cloud approach with watson ai helps manage

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parler has resurfaced. it's back online thanks to a russian platform speaking over the weekend, parler ceo said he is confident the site will be fully up by the end of the month its app remains banned from the google and apple app stores. joe? >> thanks, beck. security and tensions are high what can we expect from policy makers in washington, d.c. how will it impact the markets let's welcome arthur brooks, aei president emeritus with harvard

university >> hi, joe. >> got to talk about that. he writes a bi-weekly column for "the atlantic" how to build a life and hosts a podcast the art of happiness arthur brooks. were you accepted immediately? do they know who you are at harvard? you don't hang around in cambridge, you hang around on the other side >> i'm both. i'm jointly appointed to the kennedy school and the business school i'm 50-50 between the two places both sides of the river. so far so good i have to say perhaps we're not in very high concentration but, no, it's great. they're really nice. >> that's excellent. that's excellent they probably -- you know, they kind of talk among themselves, well, he's -- you know, he's like that but -- anyway, we were talking about all of -- what you've talked about when you come on recently, we need to

eventually bring this back to some extent. is it possible to bring back any type of civility in public or private life when social media is so insidious? is it the politicians we've had that caused it or is it the environment and the -- all the -- you know, the proliferation of all of these social media sites, arthur how are we going to do it? >> i think we can. let me back up a little bit. going back to the financial crisis, this is a very predictable thing where coming out of a financial crisis ordinarily you have 10 to 15 years of really uneven growth. there's not a macro economist on the planet that knows how to fix this you could have milton friedman as president of the united states which would be great. there is populism, polarization

and a fear-based politics from both sides saying somebody's got your stuff and i'm going to get it back. the competition in politics is important in a democracy iron sharpens iron, but the competition says the other side is evil, rich people, bankers, immigrants, foreigners, whatever, the other is going to take your stuff and i'm going to protect you, that's a bad competition. we need to shift the competition towards who is going to create more opportunity for americans i think that's what's going to happen in the next five years. republicans will do that through more economic growth, less fear of barriers, more entrepreneurship, on the left through better safety nets and that's a virtuous competition. that will solve our problems >> it's not just social media either if you watch fox news an then you watch cnn and if you watch them side by side, it's pretty staggering. >> yeah. >> the approach.

sure no, they're drafting behind this like unvirtuous competition. the media is -- wants to make money. it's capitalism. it makes perfect sense i understand it. i get it i'm sympathetic to it in fact. they see all of these incentives to fire up these passions of fear, fear and hatred as opposed to love and opportunity, which is what we actually need, you're going to get this stuff, this polarization in the media. look, you and i both know everybody should be tuned to cnbc all the time. that's the way to go until we actually have politicians and leaders trying to lead us in a better direction, the media's going to be following behind these bad directions. >> do you think that president biden is going to be a uniter from the indications that you're getting so far, vice president harris >> it's hard to say. vice president biden when he was president of the united states he had that impulse. he wants to. the problem is he is surrounded

by people living in the past decade, which is pretty normal as well. the key thing is going to be who's going to win in the democratic party is the democratic party going to go rail to rail and be polarizing and be populist and say evil people have your stuff and i'm going to protect you or are we going to move back towards more of an opportunity culture? time will tell. >> hey, arthur i wanted to talk to you about two things i don't -- this has become political. i don't think there is an equivalency here, look, we can say all sorts of things about cnn, but i think when you look at what fox was doing, especially in these past couple of months, they were lying to the public and i think as mitt romney said very directly that evening after the attacks, the best way to respect the public is to tell them the truth. and so i think that we do ourselves a disservice when we talk about these things in an equivalent way, don't you think? >> well, i think that the

biggest problem we have -- look, if the president of the united states is republican there's a populist conservative type republican, what you're going to see is more power from forces of media that have, you know, the political forces in tow. now what you're going to actually see is when the democrats are in charge that they behave just as badly as president trump did, which would be terrible, that you're actually going to see ascendant the forces and left wing media that can be just as powerful as what we saw in the last five years. so there's equivalency intent if not an actual power to be sure what we all have to do no matter what we believe, you're a conservative like joe and me, if you're liberals you have to look to keep your own house in order. you have to hold your own side to a higher standard what we're doing is look at the other side and say, that side has to get it together liberals should say liberals have to be more virtuous and

conservatives do the same thing. that will give us progress >> arthur, what do you make of what's happened with parler? and i wanted to make an earlier point that the fact that now this site is effectively operating on a russian-backed website or at least a russian-backed service, what that says about what's happening here interestingly, you know, people will still be able to get access to this site, it just won't be available through the app store. if you go onto the web you'll be able to get there. the question is whether this is -- aws getting rid of parler pushes it down the stack if you will but it will still very much be available are you on parler, for example >> no. no i don't know very much about parler at all, but i think it's pretty interesting to show how the proliferation of different -- you know, how worldwide capitalism has actually eviscerated the ability of both governments and very large corporations to deplatform in a meaningful way.

i think that's one of the big lessons we've got here if you push somebody out of the mainstream, they will still exist but not in the mainstream. what does that do to the medium? does it make it worse? you've got to think maybe it does, actually, right? don't you think? >> i don't know how we get anywhere, andrew, and arthur, when one side just decides unequivocally that the other side is always telling lies. and when one side can decide what's an equivalent and what isn't -- i saw stuff on cnn for four years that i would characterize as being not even close to the truth on a lot of different issues so to just arbitrarily saying fox is always lying, cnn at least brings you fact, that's part of the whole divide that we're in right now, andrew that's why the country is so divided. it's not alternative facts, it's just people have differing opinions people have differing opinions about a lot of things. there are times i thought the only place i got any truth was

fox at points in the last four years and i watched things happen on cnn with the dossier or absolute collusion, i was like, you've got to be kidding me who's right about who has the facts and who doesn't? >> joe, i saw protests over the summer -- >> you can't decide. >> i saw protests over the summer some of which were co-opted by looters. i have never seen, i have never seen -- >> this is why we're divided, andrew. >> the democratic party calling for effectively insurrection i don't know how you can be proud of that. i don't know how anybody can be proud of that on any side. >> it's just that that's -- >> but that's where it came from, by the way, joe. that's where it came from. the lies were told on a network to a group of people who then went to the capitol and did things that we were a witness. >> i don't work for fox. >> it's impossible to defend them in any way. >> there's bias across the board all over the place

>> it's a huge problem >> arthur's here to talk arthur's here to talk. there's no lies on cnn andrew decides the lies. if ahead >> we have a huge problem when people are basically building their filter bubbles around looking for news networks and social media sites tell them they're right and the other side is evil and stupid. >> right >> forget about it now park the whole thing about who's lying and who's not lying. we're all against lying. we're all against lying but the biggest problem is if any one of us wants to be more informed and better, a couple of things we need to do number one, we need to be paying less attention to politics politics has become an entertainment industry federal politics, national politics nobody has the slightest idea who's winning the school board election in their town but they know everything that's going on with the most minute details of the president of the united states and congress which actually touches their lives less and they're filtering it

through their facebook friends and their feed on twitter and the news network that they choose to look at that tells them that they're right and the other side is evil until we actually start getting away from that and start paying attention to things that matter for our lives like our families, faith, community, until we start paying attention to things that matter and less on the political entertainment industry which is all about making money, we're the product. when you hate, somebody's profiting in media or politics social media until we get away from that, this country's just not going to heal it's not going to get better this is a happiness prescription every bit as much as political reconciliation or progress. >> you've been on before what was your last book or something, it was just -- the title was terrible >> love your enemies, man. it was love your enemies >> optimistic? we're spinning our wheels. we're going nowhere because i'm

not feeling the love. >> we've done it before. joe, we've done it before. this country has done it before. what it requires is aspirational leadership as a quick prescription to this, politicians can heal a lot of these divides if they start talking about the american quasi religion of self-improvement and opportunity and entrepreneurship if we actually get back to the ideas that americans can be aspirational, can lift each other up and the only competition they're engaged in politically is seeing who's going to create a greater ecosystem of opportunity than the other. that will heal the divide. after the turn of the 19th century there was a huge amount of political populism and polarization and bitterness. everybody was a donald trump like nefarious political character coming through politics after the turn of the century what did you see there was a self-improvement culture that became ascendant.

that made america the country we know it today. that was basically ragan's america started in about the year 1900 and that culture comes, and it usually comes after these really bad times because somebody cease a market opportunity to bring it. let's bring it, man, and let's start it on "squawk box. the opportunity network. the opportunity show >> all right well, saved by the goldman bell in this case, arthur, thank you. >> thank you. >> we'll aim high. we'll aspire to some of your ideals. >> absolutely. >> see you later beck ♪ let there be peace on earth and let it begin with me ♪ i heard you, arthur. we're going to preach it we heard from bank of america earlier. wilf has been digging through goldman sachs numbers. what do you see, wilf? >> just crossing right now as we speak. looks like a pretty big beat on the surface. 12.8 billion coming in

11.5 billion coming in forecast of 12 billion. eps 12.8 that looks like a massive beat have to dive into the individual line items we're getting investment banking revenue 2.6 billion. forecasters 2.2 billion. fixed income trading, 1.9. equity trading, nice beat, 2.4 billion. the forecast 1.9 asset management coming in at 3.2 billion. that's a big beat. the forecast was for closer to 2 billion. trying to find the other line item which is consumer and wealth management revenue is 1.65 billion which is just ahead. the forecast was 1.5 need to dig in a little bit more but steady beats there on each of the lines most notably on asset management also on equity trading leading to a healthy beat. for stock there was at an all-time high recently all of these banks been on a

tear since november. the investment banks, this is the first to report it investment banks showing a decent beat on all lines to scale. feels like more of a beat than we saw from some of the rivals over the last couple of days >> okay. wilf, thank you. appreciate it. we will be seeing you a lot more later during the show and throughout the day. meantime, on the other side of this break, the latest on the vaccine rollout and new concerns about variant strains of covid-19 me iju a returnsn st mont no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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still to come on "squawk box," we're going to talk markets, earnings and what investors should expect from president-elect joe biden's agenda then dr. scott gottleib will be here to discusths e latest virus developments "squawk box" will be right back.

facebook on the move this morning. bemo upgrading the stock and raising the price target to $255 a share. andrew. let's look ahead to the markets before the opening joining us is jason trennert good morning to you, jason a day ahead of this inauguration how are you thinking about the markets and how are you thinking about what's to come given the number of executive orders we're anticipating that we're going to be seeing over the next ten

days >> well, i think, you know, andrew, my own particular feeling is that it's very hard to short this market it's hard to be particularly pessimistic because of this tsunami of liquidity that we have money growth is growing 25% and also you're going to get a lot of spending. no two ways about that, which we already have a lot of spending in the pipeline. that will be used the next 4 or 5 months then you'll get an increase in that very hard to be short. by the same token i think it's hard to get big index returns this year in my opinion because long-term interest rates are likely to rise the way to play it is largely through as everyone has been saying more of a value orientation. more of a sector rotation towards financials, energy, industrials, those types of stocks in my opinion should do quite a bit better. >> the question for some of the viewers, are you going to pick and choose individual stocks

would you pick and choose individual industries? meaning would you buy etfs based on the three or four industries you talked about or how would you do it? >> andrew, we don't do that at our company. we have a technical annual lits by the name of chris barone who is very good at picking stocks from a technical point of view i think this is -- and i've said this for years, of course, that all of our clients are active managers what else would i say? i think this will be a better time for active managers because the index returns are likely to be less and picking individual stocks i think will be more fruitful than it has been in the past where largely the major trends largely carried the day largely it will be overweight tech it had to be overweight tech to have any chance of beating a market i think this year is going to be a bit different. so i would, if i were one of your viewers, i would frankly -- i know it sounds self serving, i think i would get some professional help because i do

think the dispersion and returns will be greater than they have been in the past >> would you meaningfully be under weight tech? meek would you sell tech at this point? when you look at the zooms of the world, some of the stocks and big high flyers that we've seen, a year from now they're going to be worth more, worthless? >> andrew, i'm too afraid -- listen, when you have this kind of meddling in the markets from the part of the fed, by the federal government, i think it's too great to try to pick and choose when the peak will be we have counted, i think there's about 13% of stocks in the russell 3,000 that are trading at more than 10 times sales. i could tell you with some certainty that those stocks will be lower but i can't tell you when and they would probably be a lot higher before this is all over i think there are parts of tech

that are very over heated, no two ways about it. i have no interest in fooling around with people that can print money. as you know, the fed's balance sheet has gone from 4 trillion to $7 trillion this year just in a couple of months, last year, and there's no sense that it's going to get any smaller any time soon. i'm not in i want to be market weight tech if i'm being strategic about it. i don't want to be short >> jason, we often talk about policy in washington what do you do about health care right now? how do you see that industry playing itself out over the next year given both the priorities of the administration in many ways to obviously get covid under control and the investment you might see on that side but perhaps curtailing in other places i don't know >> yeah. i mean, we're market weight the sector and that's largely because pharmaceuticals have such a large weight in the sector and i have to say it's difficult from a policy perspective.

clearly policy has a long shadow over all sectors but it particularly has a long shadow over health care and pharmaceuticals obviously are a big part of it it's hard not to see -- you know, frankly they were in trouble under a trump administration they're going to be facing more headwinds under a biden administration there are other places i would say maybe hospitals where you may get a little bit more spending we're kind of in the middle on this but i think you're going to see a lot more spending there, i'm just not sure it's going to be in the pharmaceutical space which leads us to the market weight. >> and before we go, are you betting that corporate taxes, not individual taxes, we can have that debate another day, corporate taxes are higher, lower, or the same a year from today? >> andrew, i believe they'll be higher i think it's very likely they'll be higher. i think you'll see an increase

in the top marginal rate there's an attempt to increase tax rate on dividends and capitol gains. we'll see how this all works out. i would say -- i don't want to say it's a certainty nothing is a certainty i would say it's very likely that corporate taxes -- >> do you think that's built into the market today? because i don't. >> it may not be, but i would find it hard to believe that it's not priced in because i think the biden administration is very clear. there are a lot of -- you just have to go to the website and it's very clear there's a desire. >> i'm sure of that, i'm not sure there's a view it will pass >> yeah, i think that the -- i think when you come out of the gate with $1.9 trillion spending package, you'regoing to have t have some ability to pay for it. there's not -- you're not going to be able to do this just through reconciliation or moving around the edges you're going to have to have

some revenue -- tax -- tax revenues are for private companies. you're going to have more tax revenues in order to pay for it. it seems to me an increase in corporate taxes is virtually certain in my opinion. i'm not sure it's priced in either, but it should be because it's coming. >> okay. jason, thank you always good to see you. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> thank you >> becky we have a big lineup tomorrow for inauguration day right here on "squawk box. take a look at who will be joining us tomorrow. investor michael novogratz, eric cantor, donna edwards, former congresswoman of maryland, mario gabelli. mick mulvaney, the former white house chief of staff, john bryant, operation hope founder and ceo. lee cooperman, penny pritzker

and barry diller you can watch us live on the go on the cnbc app. "squawk box" will be right back. for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver

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couple of stocks to watch this morning bank of america reporting quarterly profits of 59 cents a share. 4 cents above estimate the banks bottom line helped by strengthening its trading business goldman sachs earned $12.08 for the fourth quarter compared to a consensus estimate of $7.47. the firm saw extremely strong results in its bond trading and underwriting businesses. up almost 2% office depot rebuffing a takeover offer from staples but suggesting that it's open to an alternative deal the wall street journal citing a

letter from staples. staples has tried to acquire office depot three times, three times with the most recent bid $40 a share. >> okay. coming up when we return, the latest on the vaccine distribution process and the confusion over the nation's stockpile. is there enough vaccine to meet the president-elect's goal of inoculating 100 million people in 100 days. as we head to a break, take a look at what's moving in the s&p 500 this morning we'll be right back after this

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president-elect joe biden's top health officials are confident that the u.s. will have enough vaccines to meet his goal of inoculating 100 million people in 100 days meg tirrell joins us with more hi, meg. >> reporter: good morning, joe 100 million shots in 100 days, that's 1 million shots a day how close are we to actually reaching that goal as we head into the new administration taking place tomorrow? as of friday we were on a 7-day average of about 800,000 shots being administered per day in the u.s. that's according to evercore analysis of the cdc numbers. as of friday, 31.2 million distributed, 12.3 million administered we were expecting three to four

days worth of data coming. we'll get a sense of how that's going. the pace has been increasing that's what we've been hearing in terms of the number of vaccines distributed, that's the white line here, and then yellow is doses administered. we're hearing from states it's going faster some states saying they're using so much of their vaccine now they're trying to purchase directly from pfizer, for example. michigan and now over the weekend new york becoming the second state to seek permission to do that pfizer says it needs permission from the hhs overall in terms of the u.s. we're seeing about 39% of shots distributed actually getting used if you look on the state-by-state level that varies widely that has been increasing as well 40%, obviously not where we want it to be in some states you are hearing concerns last week after there was no reserve of doses people won't be able to get its second shot florida is reporting 45,000 people are overdue for their second shot. the incoming cdc director was on

this weekend and she made this pledge. >> we have looked carefully and we are confident that we have enough vaccine for the 100 million doses over the next 100 days that is what the president-elect has promised it will be a hefty lift but we have it in us to do that >> guys, you're hearing a lot of messaging that we need to get in there and see what the numbers are like pledging transparency that's what we're hoping for where are the numbers and what do they expect to do guys >> meg, thank you very much. meg tirrell. joining us right now is former fda commissioner dr. scott gottleib he currently serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer. he's a cnbc contributor. to what meg is talking about, where we stand, especially the idea 45,000 people in florida who according to the state's

data are late for the second dosage, where do we stand? how are things going >> i don't have direct insight into how florida is managing the vaccine. there is enough vaccine in the system, they should be allocating for it. there should be enough for first doses and second doses we're on a good steady stream. 30 million doses have been distributed to states. as of this tuesday there will be another 15 million available to states 5 million doses have been ordered by the states but not shipped for a total of 50 million. a little more than 10 million have been used there is a way to increase supply much we can try to increase production. we can do more to get efficiencies in the fill finishing product. so that's what the new incoming administration should be looking at, ways to work with manufacturers to get more

production into the system the final point is if j&j's vaccine comes to the market, i have a lot of confidence for them to be able to produce that in large quantities, if that comes to the market, that will be a game changer in terms of supply i think, you know, many of us are optimistic looking at the early data that it does look encouraging. >> this is monday morning quarterbacking, but were we right to give the states so much autonomy and not set up a federal system to see how this gets distributed it is frustrating when we hear people in some states who can get appointments with no problems and people in others who are not? >> yeah, well, we talked about this on the show many times that it would feel unfair people would have friends in some states that were able to get vaccinated that ben not. i think we should have had uniform guidelines

we should have had it uniform. we should have pushed more through federal distribution points, including the big box stores and pharmacies. the federal government could have distributed directly through walgreens, cvs, walmart, shop right and other big box stores and that would have provided for instantaneous access most of those outlets have scheduling systems they know how to do this they have vaccinators on hand. they vaccinate in the flu season they could have distributed and they chose not to do that. they gave stocks to the state and they made 50 different decisions. it slowed things down in the beginning because most states had to set up new systems, new registration systems and new sites. that took weeks to do. >> what now? is it too late to switch gears and advocate to what you've been advocating for, going to big

boxes, pharmacies that know how to do this or will that slow things down again if you change once you're this far down the road >> no. they're taking the all of the above approach wrapping around with a lot of advanced planning and resources. the federal government froze them when i was talking to governors before the vaccines were authorized, i asked them what their plans were, how they were going to prioritize vaccination, what i was hearing back from them is we don't know. we're waiting for the federal government to tell us. we have thinking we don't know what we're going to be allowed to do. i think states felt frozen right now i think what you can do very quickly is wrap around what exists. you're talking the biden administration talking about setting up federally chartered sites. you hear them talk about

distributing directly through large pharmacies it's an all of the above approach and it's working. final point is we've talked about access being a challenge now we've talked about supply. we're getting through a steady state of supply in the near term i do think at some point demand is going to become an issue. right now we're working on a 65 and older group. once we get to 100 million, 120 million vaccines the demand will get soft this year 120 million people got vaccinated for flu, adult. all-time record. those were people worried about getting covid going out and getting flu vaccines that may be the universe of people that have demand for covid vaccine. we need to work on the demand side of this equation. we can't lose sight of that and take for granted everyone wants the vaccine. >> the biden administration has

earmarked money for vaccination programs i can't see too many people arguing about spending $20 billion about trying to get the vaccine program up and running it's a much bigger package that will take a long time to get through congress if it gets there too late, what would happen today >> i don't think it's going to impact things near term. this is baked. we can push the vaccine out through avenues that are already operating. that's why i've been advocating the big box stores, places like walmart, walgreens, shop right, brick and mortar facilities that have the capacity to take on this task. that could be more apparent, coherent we may need to be facing more risk from covid. the other thing i think we

should be doing is talking about how we built resill yebs si. if we get started on that that could pay dividends and give us an insurance policy. right now it's all priced for perf perfection all of our expectations are predicated on the belief that there will be no disruptions and everything will work well. i have confidence it will, but there's risk we need to have a plan b we need more in the system that's something we should have been doing months ago but it's never too late to invest in that >> dr. gottleib, thank you for your time. good to see you. we will check in with you again. >> thanks a lot. a lot more ahead on "squawk box" this morning. the latest on the markets this morning. we'll talk to mohamed el erian as we head to a break, quick look at the dow. the s&p 500 looking to open 29

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good morning futures pointing this morning towards a solid open for stocks. the dow and s&p 500 coming off

their first down weeks since the middle of the last month and more quarterly results from the big banks out this morning as earnings season ramps up we're going to bring you the numbers and what you need to know for your portfolio. and as president-elect biden prepares to take office, we've got up to the minute reports on today's key confirmation hearings and what we're expecting at tomorrow's in inaug inauguration the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning hard to start out. i don't know what it is. i'm wondering. i do have a little bit of a froggy throat. i don't know what that is. anyway, welcome back. >> so do i >> here we are yeah, it's tuesday i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin once i get going, it's fine.

it's just that first -- there's the dow. up about 217 points. 107 on the nasdaq and the s&p indicated up 28.5% on treasury yields continue to be a little bit higher than we've seen in recent months 1.118 now on the 10-year we're now in 2021 proper and we'll see about the predictions for 1.6, 2.0 on the 10-year. we'll see where we go. becky. we have gotten some earnings beats from two of wall street's biggest banks out this morning by the way, futures were higher before we saw these numbers. check out shares of goldman sachs after it crushed earnings estimates for the fourth quarter. it posted earnings per share of above $12 when the expectation was $7.47. revenue beat estimates as well with strong bond trading and underwriting performances. when wilf was looking through

the numbers, equity trading was very strong too. that stock is up by about $8 for a gain of just over 2.6% bank of america posting a fourth quarter of mixed picture a little bit missing revenue numbers but a beat on the bottom line. the bankauthorizing $3.2 billion of share repurchases in the first quarter and it maintained its 18 cents share dividend we'll talk more about bank earnings right now you'll see bank of america down 1.6% the shares were up 1.4, 1.5% when we heard the share repurchase number. andrew. >> thanks, becky. a grim update on coronavirus. more than 400,000 people have died of this disease now in the united states. according to a tally, an nbc news tally, the country hit 300,000 deaths just over a month ago. today amidst 364 days sips the u.s. confirmed that first case of the virus in seattle. mean while, the incoming biden

administration says it won't lift an entry ban on most visitors from europe, the u.k. and brazil that came last night after less than half an hour after president trump ordered an end to the travel restrictions so president trump says there's an end to it and then the biden administration says, no, we're not doing that president-elect biden becomes president, we can drop the elect in a little more than 24 hours but there's a lot that's going to happen between now and then kayla tausche will join us in just a moment on today's confirmation hearings for proposed members of biden's cabinet. first, let's get to eamon javers with the latest on tomorrow's inauguration eamon, good morning. >> reporter: yeah, good morning to you, joe. washington has become something of an armed camp this morning as tens of thousands of federal troops have flooded the city we have security checkpoints in enormous areas of the city downtown is simply inaccessible

to anybody who doesn't have an id they've closed off a number of subway stations, metro stations and all of that being done now to fortify the city against anything like what we saw back on january 6th the scary thing here is officials are now concerned about the possibility of an insider attack, that is somebody on the security team themselves who has become radicalized they're vetting all 25 thousand groups we're seeing extra security added for statehouses across the country ahead of what are expected pro-trump protests, not clear exactly which statehouses will see the most intense action but they're preparing around the country for whatever might come tomorrow we got a new statement from the acting attorney general saying the american people have demonstrated they will not allow mob violence to go unanswered.

violence and senseless criminal conduct are not the right way to resolve differences or promote change in our country. that statement coming just within the past hour, guys all of that as we wait for the final 24 hours now of president trump's two mult two wous term in office. the last significant action of the trump administration is now expected to be a wave of pardons for his allies, supporters and prominent individuals. we're expecting dozens of pardons but the guidance that we're getting, guys, he's going to hold off on a self-pardon and pardon for his family. it's possible he could change his mind back over to you. >> a lot of questions about julian assange, eamon. any guidance there >> reporter: i don't know. wikileaks has been conducting through grassroots lobbying campaign, reaching out to reporters who cover the white house. i got a dm from wikileaks urging

support for an assange pardon. edward snowden has been tweeting from russia about the idea of a pardon and justice there will be some controversial ones in the bast >> i was going to ask you about edward snowden there was a report in axios that bill barr tried to head that off at the pass and what you think the state of play would be and who would be lobbying for that there was an article in "the new york times" that said there's a market for these pardons people are paying lots of money to potentially people like rudy giuliani and people around the president and there's become an open market for whether a pardon will be granted or not of course, that money not going directly to the president but to the people around him. >> yeah. the question is who is that money going to

we don't have a clear picture of that none of that is disclosable. we don't know if someone is charging advisory fees, legal fees in their private capacity in order to advocate to president trump for a pardon and then the question is does any of that money make it to the trump family and to the president himself in the months to come? all of that to be wachd for as we look at this money trail here around these pardons we're going to have to see what happens. yeah, the president has sort of opened this bazaar for pardons by signifying saying he wants to pardon a lot of people there are people out there with criminal backgrounds who decided this is their opportunity. you'll see a lot of money changing hands. >> real quick because we have to go do you anticipate any pardons related to the attacks on the capitol last week? you hear now a lot of the folks in their defense effectively saying the president told me to do this. >> yeah. we've seen some people appealing

directly 209 camera, some people involved in the attack on the capitol. the president told me to do this and i think he should pardon me. i don't think so but we'll have to see the president said in his message that he loves those people and he wants them to be safe you know, you just don't know with president trump i'd hesitate to guess. you talk about barr a couple of months ago thinking he had headed off an edward snowden whether that is headed off today is an entirely different question from moment to moment you just don't know so we're just going to have to wait and see. >> eamon, thank you. we'll be talking to you a lot more throughout the next 24 hours. meantime, five of president-elect biden's picks for top posts will face questions today. we want to get to kayla tausche with the details good morning to you, kayla. >> reporter: good morning, andrew it is a packed schedule on

capitol hill for confirmation hearings we're going to hear from picks from the incoming administration to lead treasury, state, defense, homeland security, and the intelligence community as the transition tries to expedite transition of its international team this is coming from each agency's own continuation of government's succession planning those are going to be tapped if none of the nominees are confirmed. each committee has a time line for how long they take they can hold a vote 48 hours after the hearing's transcript is posted. there is precedent for leadership overriding the rules to get a full floor vote, to get some people expedited into their positions. for instance, president trump saw the swearing in and confirmation of his defense secretary, jim mattis. his then homeland security chief

john kelly in 2009 president obama saw the senate confirm six nominees on inauguration day and the difference there was that each president has had his own party in the majority in the weeks leading up to the inauguration for biden, the balance of power is not expected to shift until possibly wednesday when we get those two democratic senators from georgia sworn in and when the vice president is sworn in becoming the tie breaking vote even so the incoming press sec jen psaki said there are nominations but they're planning the contingency agency heads in lieu of that happening they are still, andrew, planning this flurry of ten days of executive action regardless of what happens with personnel. andrew >> kayla, real quick yesterday it became official the gary densler nomination. do you think that will become controversial? is that one that could be up for grabs or not >> reporter: not necessarily

i mean, certainly there is a lot of literature and there is a long record that gensler has in his own government service and the private sector, but considering that he's run the cftc before, considering he is a known entity, i think it's something that lawmakers are going to grapple with but ultimately, especially because of the composition of the senate, that it's not going to be one of those situations where gensler is seen as not confirmable. of course we'll see tides change, but certainly that is something that has been long telegraphed, long expected and someone with a long history in both the private and public sector to dwell on and to draw from kayla, thank you coming up, president-elect biden's chase for treasury secretary, janet yellen, goes before the senate finance committee today. after the break, we'll get a preview. first, a few headlines this morning. tesla has delivered the first

model y crossover. that comes a little over a year after it began in china. canada is going to be lifting a ban on boeing 737 max jet starting tomorrow. the jet gradually returning to service after that nearly two-year grounding another fourth quarter earnings mover for you this morning. halliburton. the oil field services company beating street estimates on both the top and bottom line with results helped by cost cutting and a rebound in demand because of higher oil prices stay tunedyoreatin, u' wchg "squawk box" and this is cnbc.

welcome back to "squawk box. take a quick look at the futures right now. the dow looks like it would open up 217 points higher nasdaq up 112 points higher. the s&p 500 looking like it would open up about 28.5, we'll round up and call it 29 points higher we're going to come back in just a moment steve liesman is going to join us, but before we do that, president-elect biden's a little more than 24 hours away from

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welcome back, everybody. president-elect joe biden's pick for treasury secretary, janet yellen, will tell lawmakers that the government must act big with its next covid relief bill yellen will be testifying at a confirmation hearing today steve liesman joins us with more on that front. i think all of the bills have been pretty big to this point, and that's the question. how much more will they be able to get congress to agree to? >> reporter: yeah, becky, here we go. the politics and economics of the federal debt come to the fore today with treasury secretary nominee janet yellen sitting for her confirmation hearing before the senate finance committee. she's been there before. she will nod to the country's debt burden but nod to the $1.9 trillion spending plan to fight the pandemic and get the economy going. a copy of her testimony says, quote, without further action, we risk a longer, more painful recession now and long-term scarring of the economy later. in the long run, i believe the

benefits will far outweigh the costs. the economics underlying yellen's argument is that with interest rates so low the spending can be offset as long as growth or gdp is higher than the interest rate paid by the government federal deficit increasing even before the pandemic. it's now projected to be nearly 16% in 2020 but improve slowly over the next several years. the biden spending plan not included in these will get up to estimates when the cbo figures the spending politically the trend is that the party out of power continues to gain a sudden concern some republicans already made the turn some democrats as well financially yields have risen a bit since it became clear democrats would take over the senate but remain deeply negative on an inflation adjusted basis dollar has weakened but gained a bit since the georgia runoff stocks generally higher overall the risks are that the rates are

high the fed is buying 80 billion a month of treasury. no clear signal financial markets say the u.s. has reached that limit we'll be listening to see if congress shares that confidence. becky, if you think about it, a person making $100,000 a year with their income growing 3, 4, 5% a year can borrow $100,000 for a house and pay 1% now i don't know what the limit is of the debt, but the idea that it's 100%, well, people are borrowing that amount all the time for their own personal finances. >> yeah. it's just that when you look at this bill, there's a lot more in it than i would have expected when the suggestions beforehand were that this was going to be a bipartisan bill. i know that the state and local aid was going to be a big issue, that's been a political hot potato through the two parties through the entire pandemic.

i was surprised to semin mum wage be something thrown on the table. i don't know if that was something they thought they could put up to take something off the table to secure the state and local aide or if that was something put there for the left wing of the party to say, look, we're going to be fighting for this, we'll bring it up again later. i was a little surprised when the first thing they said we want a bipartisan bill they hinted at that. the next day we got what the actual thing looked like wow, that is not what i would have anticipated >> i'll leave the politics to the politicians but let me just connect the macro and the micro, which is i think you ask a good question in the following way when it comes to the economics it's okay to borrow more as long as you're kochb my is greek. if you borrow and waste the money, then the whole equation kind of falls apart.

it's very important that the money we spend ends up helping out growth, in some cases helping out people that's another story the idea that if we waste the money, then the equation that i talked about or the one that yellen is talking about, it kind of goes out the window there's a lot of stuff in there. those are things you can make an argument for things that are wasteful, not connected, then you have a bigger question as to the amount or the kind of spending we all should be doing. >> all right, steve. thank you. joining us now, mohamed el erian, advisor at allianz as well as president of queens college in cambridge so far, mohamed, we still seem to be, you know -- the fed is still helpful. we haven't passed the baton. the market's up again today. the economy itself, the data points last week weren't great as i think you've pointed out. the economy is slowing

yet the equity markets are still firm so that baton pass that you've been waiting for for so long between monetary and fiscal has still not come to pass, has it >> no. if anything, the fed has been pulled further in this year despite the biden administration signals that it's going to act big, despite stocks having a really good start to the beginning of the year and it just tells you that the fed is going to have enormous difficulty exiting, even when we're looking and, joe, note this number. we're looking at potential injections of liquidity from fiscal, monetary, household to 20, 25% of gdp this year alone >> when the yield curve steepened a little you mentioned that the fed was quick to act. can you go into what happened, mohamed, what implications that has? >> yeah. i mean, the fed now is fine

tuning market moves. look, in the first five days the yield curve steepened by around 20 to 23 basis points, two 10s and two 30s. that's quite a move for five days but it is consistent with what was happening in terms of the longer term outlook for the economy. and then immediately we saw brainerd, jay powell come in and talk down yields and i find it fascinating that the fed felt a need to move so quickly in reaction to the yield curve. that concern, joe, is very simple, that if the -- if yields move too quickly, too quickly, they'll lose control of two things that are key to financial stability. one, the notion of tina and all

of the discounted cash flow models that say buy equities, buy equities because rates are so repressed >> so, mohamed, we saw china i like their numbers i wish we had their numbers a lot of times, but there's a lot of discussion whenever you see numbers about what the standard deviation could be in terms of what's real and what they post do you believe the most recent gdp numbers that china posted? >> i believe that they'll do relatively well compared to europe and the u.s. for the simple reason that they've done better with covid. they've managed to get over covid, and they have tools we don't have, right? they can tell you, joe, exactly what to do and you will accept it we can't do that here. we have a respect for individual freedoms and individual rights that they don't have so for me, they've sprinted out

of the covid shock, but the big question is can they maintain it and that's going to be a real issue for them over the next two years. they've got to reform their economy really quickly if they want to maintain the lead over the rest of the world. >> so you're good with close to 2 trillion are you good with $15 minimum wage across the board, mohamed >> look, i'm good with this notion of having three components of this fiscal package. remember, when i came on and you asked me as an economist what do you want to see, i said i'd like to see relief for people who are suffering, doing better against covid, infrastructure to promote long-term growth and securing household security making households feel more secure so that they can engage more in the economy. this package touches three of the four areas what's interesting, joe, and the

question that should be put to treasury secretary yellen is what about infrastructure? how big will that be so that we have a complete picture of the fiscal policy response >> all right they're telling me we've got to go, mohamed. would you suggest that the jets skip a quarterback in the draft and pick davonte smith do you -- >> yeah. >> do you agree with that? >> you could get me there quite quickly. yeah, i like sam. >> you like -- darnold i think he hasn't been -- the problems weren't his there were glimmers, right would you do that if you came -- >> yeah, i would i think it's not his problem i think it's the whole thing has to be revamped >> okay. all right. all right, mohamed you went to queens college instead of any job with the jets you weren't really -- but you weren't offered anything, were

you? >> we've got a good head coach coming in from the 49ers i like it. >> okay. good thanks, mohamed. coming up, how far will joe biden's coronavirus relief plan go towards lifting the u.s. economy, that is if he can get the paagcke through congress we'll talk about that. stay tuned, "squawk box" coming right back there are many names for enthusiast. but there's only one way to become one... by going all in. the new lexus is. with a lower center of gravity,

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welcome back to "squawk box. president-elect biden's big push will be his nearly $2 trillion covid relief proposal. with a 50-50 senate and getting all of the administration's priorities through congress will likely be a challenge. joining me is austan goolsbee and a professor at the booth school of business michael strain is here he's at the american enterprise institute. michael, i want to start with you. i know you are troubled, i think is maybe a fair way to say it, by the $1400 payments going out. i think you want to see more prec precision. i think we all want to see more precision. i'm thinking about the pitfalls

of precision insofar as i was thinking over the weekend about what we're seeing in certain states about getting the jab, about getting the covid-19 vaccine and all the precision that was planned and the problems, the bottlenecks that created. maybe it's wasteful. maybe it changes the line jumping and whatnot, but maybe when it comes to sending out this money the quickest and easiest way is just to do it and know that maybe you're spending a little too much or a little extra to make it happen. >> yeah. so i'm not worried about spending too much or a little extra. i think we want to err on the side of, you know, thinking we're doing a little bit too much instead of a little bit too little the issue is the nature of what we're doing. so president-elect biden i think is admirably focusing a lot of the policies in his proposal on low income households. unemployment insurance extensions, food stamp extensions, refundable child tax credits that would go to households with children even if they didn't oni income tax

liability, expansion of the earned income tax credit that goes to low income households. the question is, you know, do these checks really do what we want them to do in a package like this? i think a package like this we want to alleviate real human suffering and we want to help the economy kind of transition to the post virus new normal these checks don't do any of that i think there is no justification for giving thousands of dollars to households that earn more than $200,000 a year who didn't suffer any employment loss >> austan, i think you're on the other side of this one >> well, look, i like the targeted money the best. andrew, i thought you had a nice phrase about the perils of

trying to be too particular about it i think what the vice president/president-elect has proposed is not just money for these checks if it were only the money in those checks, then i think that critique would -- there would be a fair component to it, but that's just one part of a broad effort, number one, with hundreds of billions going to stop the spread of the disease, which is the most important thing, there is money that's going to the unemployed. there's direct assistance for low income people, food stamps and the things that are providing relief that is a bridge i agree with michael that we want to be steering focus to try to transition the economy back as we get control of the disease, but make no doubt about it, there are millions of people who are about to be evicted who are going to have their gas shut off and sending out checks is an

important component of that relief i do think we should not be sending money to people with over $200,000 if we can control that in a way that doesn't lead like the vaccines to a bunch of the vaccine getting wasted, same idea with the money. >> hey, michael, what do you make of the $15 minimum wage i know that's something else that i've seen that you've taken issue with it appears it's only going to -- i mean, it's only going to affect certain parts of the country because a lot of the country's already moved. i'm wondering if there is a lesson of this pandemic, which is that the folks that are making under $15 are some of the people who have actually been to a large degree on the front line they're working the cashier counter, working at the small business at the restaurant, they've been the ones that have suffered the most. >> look, there's no question i

think that some people would benefit from a $15 minimum wage. low wage workers who continue to keep their jobs and able to find employment opportunities you're right, andrew, i believe it's 9 states including washington d.c. have put their state minimum wages on a pafth t 15 in my mind there's less reason for the federal government to step in here wages vary widely across american states. 47 states have 1/4 of their work force earning less than $15 an hour there are three states where the median wage, the wage in which half of workers earn below it, is under $16.50. so california, new york, illinois, you know, maybe the damage wouldn't be as bad as the damage would be in west virginia and mississippi where, again, close to half of all workers

earn less than 15. i think we let thestate experiments play out and don't attempt to do this for those low wage states where it's likely to do even more damage. i mean, to be clear, i think it's going to do damage in california and illinois, i just think it's going to do less damage than in some other places >> austan, fair argument i mean, the other question is, you know, whether it's tiered or comes in over a schedule if it doesn't happen in year one but maybe happens over several years. >> look, i think whenever you get into these legislative negotiations they're going to have phase-in periods, they're going to have -- et cetera, et cetera i think the evidence over the last decade, 10, 15 years at the state level is that the purported damage done by raising the minimum wage is largely

non-ex non-e non-existent joe biden won running on a platform here's what i'm going to do. here's what i think the economy needs. here's what i think is the failure of the trump presidency and he won by 7 million votes and he wonthe congress and he won the senate and i think that the problem that the critics of joe biden's program have right now is that we've tried the approach that they're describing what they want joe biden to do is what donald trump has been doing for four years and it's a failure. >> right. >> it's a failed presidency. >> hey, austan, before i let you go -- >> i think he's wanted and very popular by the american people >> before i let you go, i want to ask you just a policy question about washington. i have a column just out this morning about a memo that jpmorgan's been circulating from people like henry kissinger, tony blaire, bob gates about

globalism and globalists the phrase globalist had been an epithet for the past four years, not just here in the united states but across the world where nationalism really prevailed. i'm curious how far you think or how much that changes under this new administration and a new washington >> it's kind of an interesting wrinkle. it does feel like the big push for globalization increases in trade and multi-lateral deals and things like that, that's in retrenchment everywhere and kind of in both parties, you know, so you've seen as part of the build back better agenda a big focus by the president-elect biden on let's use the government contracting to increase demand for american construction, american manufacturing and stuff like that. so i don't know, it doesn't feel like the pendulum is swinging back it just feels like the pendulum might be swinging towards the

kind of native stuff a little less strongly than it has been >> austan goolsbee, michael, thank you guys very much >> great to see you again. >> great to see you. becky. >> thanks. thanks, andrew when we come back, the very latest on this morning's big bank earnings plus commentary from the ceo of stiefel financial. office depot is spurning a takeover but suggests it is open to an alternative deal staples has now tried to acquire office depot three times with the most recent bid of $40 a share. that stock right now trading at $45 a share. stay tuned, you're watching "sawboquk x" and this is cnbc.

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we don't see this every quarter. couple of big days for bank earnings when they all come. we had another one today wilfred frost joins us with numbers from bank of america and goldman sachs. good morning again, wilf. >> hey, joe. bank of america solid. revenue behind expectations, eps just ahead like jpmorgan, wells fargo and citi, provisions fell dramatically all banks showing that based on current expectations the worst is behind them and for the economy as a whole from the

pandemic net income should improve to 10.4 billion from 10.3 billion the ceo expressing confidence that it has bottomed the net interest margin declining from 1.71 to 1.72 in q3 highlights there is no room for celebration. goldman sachs smashed estimates, and revenue of 11.5 billion versus 10 billion estimate the beat driven by asset management revenues 3.2 versus 2.2 estimate equity trading also impresse which offset fixed income trading slipping a little bit. overall trading revenue only down 6% quarter over quarter was a win. up 23% year over year in the fourth quarter trading for all of 2020 up 43% compared to 2019 no doubt david solomon will return to equity at 21.1% in the fourth quarter, 15% for the full

year when you strip out litigation expense, most of which should be behind them now that one mdb is settled. stocks hit an all-time high. if the roes are sustained, even if 2020's trading numbers will be hard to replicate goldman sachs stock is up in the pre-market bank of america down a little bit. both up 40% or so in the last three months guys >> hey, wilf, thank you. for more on the financials and what's ahead for the sector under the biden administration, we are joined by ron kruczeski what wilf just said, the banks being up, there are vee high expectations you still think there's still some room to run why is that? >> well, for the banks, look, you can just see it's activity levels you can parse the results a

little bit you don't see a lot of net loan growth but you see a lot of activity in the universal banks. when you see what jpmorgan posted and gold man this morning, you're seeing tremendous market activity which is the result of redoing the economy. all of that activity runs through financials the financials are very busy and very busy in 2021. activity levels will be high in my opinion >> how much of this is the idea that we're going to see a lot more stimulus spend and that means we'll see fewer bad loans? >> well, certainly the fewer bad loans is a result of a tremendous amount of not only stimulus on the fiscal side but on the monetary side and that is certainly driving the market but, you know, as you think about it, i've listened to you this morning, what makes me bullish about the market also makes me very concerned about the market and the fact that we're talking

about $5 trillion of stimulus as a previous guest said, 25% of gdp, $130 billion of qe, both of those factors are at full tilt in my opinion to this market at some point this trade needs to balance out we're not going to be pumping this market with this kind of fiscal and this kind of monetary stimulus personally what i think is a real risk to this market and everyone says it can't happen so i raise my risk factor even higher is a rather sudden increase in inflation expectations and long-term rates. that would take the air out of a lot of these stocks. >> yeah. that would be concerning for sure let's talk about what we can expect under this incoming biden administration additional regulation probably high on the list what do you think about gary gensler coming to the sec? what do you think the signals that you're seeing at this point mean for any of these stocks

>> well, for sure you're going to see higher regulation i think that gary very experienced from his previous experience and i believe that you're going to see a lot of movement on disclosure, esg disclosure there will be a few factors in the financials i'm sure. it will be on the regulatory front through interpretation and enforcement and guidance for sure, but that's what you would expect certainly i've been ceo under two democratic administrations and two republican administrations and we'll get through this fine. i'm not overly concerned about regulatory, you know, cliff tha we have to go over. >> yeah. ron, there was a statement put out by patrick mchenry, he is the republican leadership minority leader for the house financial services committee and

he said in terms of gary gensler coming to the sec, he would be willing to work with him on things like crypto currency, where i think they see eye to eye, but he had a strange statement that said he suspects the democrats are going to try and take a very democrats are going to try to take a partisan few and do things that are nonfinancial regulatory measures through the sec and potentially other agencies as well we've seen more of that with executive order over the last 12 years and beyond what do you think about that just this idea that they are -- could potentially be doing more that is nonfinancial and maybe outside the mandate instead of things that should go through the legislative process? maybe that's more of what we've seen for more than a deck ade at this point >> first, i think gary will be a good leader for the sec. what he takes up will be interesting. what that comment is relating to

primarily will be the sec's approach on mandating dispoe cloe sures and maybe policies and things that companies should be doing on, again, esg that might -- some may believe is outside the realm of what they're supposed to be doing which is regulating the financial markets, and so that's what i think that concern is about. we'll see. ron, what makes you think the markets may be highly valued at this point what kind of measurements do you watch? what is your biggest overwhelming concern >> well, we -- when the election came out, we thought the s&p would go to 3800 within six months it got there in three months it trades at 23 times earnings our earnings are a little bit lower. by our analysis it trades almost 25 times earnings. it's just a perfect -- feels

like a perfect brew for the market to maybe continue higher, but there was a quote you should focus on maybe you've talked about that i think bears looking into, and that was when the fed chairman powell said last week that he anticipated the potential for, quote, exorbitant spending it's almost a corollary to what greenspan said in the 90s. exorbitant spending. i believe that's a signal that there is a lot of pent up demand in this economy, and when it gets unleashed, you could have pockets of inflation, and that will be concerning both to the bond market and i believe the fed. and in some ways, i think that was a signal that said look, we need to watch this >> yeah. it took years after green span uttered entub rexuberance for i

to catch up in the marketplace we'll keep our eye on it good to see you. >> thank you when we come back, jim cramer's first take on the markets this inauguration week we'll be right back after this rw smartphone deal. oh do ya? actually it's for both new and existing customers. i feel silly. but i do want the fastest 5g network. oh i want the fastest 5g network. are we actually doing this again? it's not complicated. only at&t gives everyone the same great deal. like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free when you trade in.

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let's get to head quarters with jim crimer joining us start with bank of america the bottom line was better but revenue a little light is there an issue with you for the report >> not at all. net income was good. extensions were elevated they have a lot of capital. they are doing what i would regard as being if the stock were at 30, it would go higher people can sell it, but it would be to a gigantic buy back. i don't want to sell to a buyback that aggressive. i think the problem is there's a very big move. >> goldman once again, the ability to follow that stock and

come anywhere near what it's going to earn by analysts, it's -- we've seen this before is that the black box earnings sort of machine that goldman is? or -- i feel sorry for these guys $12, they were expecting $7? how does it work >> i think they play close to the vest about what's doing well, and because of that, the analysts are finding it hard to model it particularly because the fourth quarter was just this quarter that was a quarter to dream of whether it's private equity or wealth management. that was big for them. transactions very big. equities very big. then you start thinking okay, what is this company selling at. it's cheaper than you even thought. this one can go higher if only just because you needed a monster mother of all blow outs to get that stock where it is, and that's what you got. i want to hear what they say

the bank group seems soggy versus the speculative but this is a good number. i think you have to -- good number >> all right, jim, thanks. if brady takes the buccaneers to the super bowl, what does that do just enforces -- he's the goat i mean it's -- did you predict that >> it does, because i don't think that you can -- devon te adams and rogers, i don't know i don't want to bet against green bay, i don't >> you're right. they look good >> pulling for patrick, too. >> oh, it's got to be. it's got to be i mean, i know the protocol is very serious carson palmer, bringing him in for a show i do, and i want to really understand the protocol if the guy jogs offer, he jogs offer, joe >> yep, we do. we have to get to dom. they're yelling at me. thanks andrew >> okay. well get to dom right now with

some of the biggest premarket movers this morning. do sn. >> here's the reason why you got some movement here on shares of cciv that's one of the big ones driving premarket action they're coming out and saying well, they're down around 3%, 8 million shares this is the special purpose acquisition company that surged over 80 % in five days reports say they may be looking at a deal to take electric vehicle leoose it public they said they don't comment on speculation and deals. they're evaluating possible transaction. next shares of facebook, higher by 2%. 250 shares of volume getting help from companies at bemo target is at 375 from 270. regulatory risks already there we'll end on peloton down 2 .5%. 50,000 shares of volume.

analysts downgraded the stock to sell from neutral. upping the target price. they say some of the other stocks in the internet universe may have benefitted too much from the internet. not a good risk/reward >> thank you for that. tomorrow is a big day. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." futures are solid. as we brace for a busy inauguration week. yellen on the hill today along with other biden nominees for state, defense, homeland security earn frgs goldman b of a and netflix tonight. go big or go home. the former fed chair, yellen, calling for congress to bypass their concerns for debt concerns goldman shares are higher after it crushed earnings estimates. bank of