tv Closing Bell CNBC January 19, 2021 3:00pm-5:00pm EST
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for after the bell but you are watching another earnings moving, right >> goldman, an outstanding report the problem is it had a huge into into those companies. today is sell the news about i wouldn't count them out. i think it can work its way higher >> i precious all of your co-anchoring from long island today. good to see you. >> i feel lying i am a natural. >> and you are, "closing bell" starts right now it certainly does. welcome to "closing bell," everyone, i'm wilfred frost along with sara eisen. stocks higher to start the week. tech, fangs, semis you aring the market higher as well as the likes of energy. let's look at what is driving the action treasury secretary nominee janet yellen pushes for more stimulus saying now the time the act big. dr. fauci says approval of the astrazeneca and johnson & johnson vaccine candidates are just weeks away. earnings season picking up beats
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from two banks today'd today, and netflix reporting after the close. the dow up 140 points as we stand. the nasdaq leading the charge, up over 1% 59 minutes left in the session sara >> we've got a lot to look forward to on today's show coming up, esg investor jeffrey ubben. and jonathan web with an announcement ahead of that company going company. plus we will competent with the ceo of insurance cop lemon aid about the stock's huge run and pullback. netflix is set to report after the bell we will bring you that and an interview with tom petterfy after those numbers hit. mike santoli tracking the market action as always wilfred has a closer look at earnings from goldman sachs and bank of america. and janet yellen -- highlights
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from her treasury secretary nomination hearing mike, first to you. >> expectations of another fiscal push here action sent waited by janelle yellen's conversation in congress today of i think in general the mark has been hanging around this area for a while it maintained this very steady upturn. you have 2% minor pull backs of the it has been consolidating the last couple of woogs holiday week seven of the last eight trading days the s&p above 3800 but pulling back at 3825 the rest of the market is jumpy. sem conductors up, solar stocks. all the risk appetite firefighters are flying today. it has people focused in on whether we are getting into speculation in the options market here's another echo of the late '90s parity which relates to
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volume till and expected volatility as captured by the vix. the volatility index this is a 12 year chart of the s&p 500 against the vix on a weekly basis back in the late '90s, this big spike up was fear crescendo in the 1998 asia crisis the vix never got out of this upper range in the 20s it was jumpy it was volatile in two directions with an upeid side buy yas. we are in a similar period here where the vix has refused to calm down. maybe we are in this time right now where there is just so much energy flowing into the market from smaller traders from a lot of the tech trade it is not going recede as much we should have a downside bias in vix maybe after we get through the inauguration and the earnings
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season that might happen but it might stay agitated. >> it is something we are going to talk about with thomas peterffy t the. >> goldman and bank of america reporting this morning before the bell >> stocks tee kleining, but up sharply over the last couple of months bank of america numbers were solid. revenue just mind expectations, income just ahead. all bank now showing that based on current expectations, the worst is behind them, and probably for the economy as a whole from the pandemic. the bank also expressed optimism that net interest income bottomed in q 3, even if if improvement in q 4 was mormal.
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goldman sacks smashed with a beat on both the bottom and time line for all of 2020 in both fixed income and equity trading was up 43% compared to 2019 return on equity came in at 21.1% for q 4, 15% for the full year when you strip out litigation expense most of which should be behind goldman now that they have settled 1 mdb the target for the year was 13%. clearly beaten goldman sachs 079 mystic about the outlook in investment manking in 2021 but had a word of caution about spacs. >> one of the things we are watching very closely is the incentives of the sponsors and the incentives of somebody that's selling while i think these activity levels continue to be very robust and as they continue to be heading into 2021 to continue to be very robust i do not think this is sustain number the medium term and it will be
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something that you know that will in some way, shape or form bring the activity levels doesn't over a period of time. >> goldman, as we mentioned at the top, trader lower today by 1.9% a bit of a buy the rumor, sell the fact type move as josh brown alluded to saw that on friday with some is of the other names, too. the sector as a whole up sharply, up 40 to 50% since the start of november depending which stock you look at. >> i think a lot of the good theus was in the stock judging by the share price reaction. we will talk more about the banks. we want the hit washington the last full day the trump presidency joebds's cabinet picks are beginning the nomination process. wall street is playing close attention to janet yellen as she looks to take the role of treasury secretary ylan moi with the latest highlights for us. >> reporter: there weren't any real red flags for her confirmation during this
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hearing. the full senate could vote on her as soon as thursday. republicans and democrats both congrate lated here on her nomination yellen made sure to explicitly said that it is the roll of the markets not the administration to determine the value of the dollar. >> the united states does not seek a weaker currency to gain competitive advantage. and we should oppose attempts by other countries to do so the intentional targeting of exchange rates to gain commercial advantage is unacceptable >> now, yellen did make the case for raising the minimum wage and where those $2,000 stimulus checks are so important. but on issues of getting rid of the cap on state and local tax deductions and tax on capital gains yellen most low avoided the question and said the administration is still investigating approaches >> i thought they are strongest case, ylan came when it came to
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this argument of whether we should worry about the debt or do a lot of stimulus her whole message was we should go big she was ready to preempt controversies from republican lawmakers from worrying about robbing from future generations and sky high debt levels >> she said part of this is about the immediate moment and ensuring people who are feeling pain now can see some relief and not worry necessarily about the size of the did nebt the future. one other thing she pointed out was that it is not sort of total size of the debt that you need to pay attention to but rather net interest payments and what share of gdp is u.s. is spending the pay down the debt. that's also an important metric she wanted folks the lock at but you are going hear republicans talk about this. the size of the package is going to be hard for them to swallow senator pat toomey said it is going make it difficult for biden to get bipartisan support, what he needs in order to get
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we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today. under 50 minutes left of trade agriculture technology company app harvest announcing today its first-ever harvest of beef steak tomatoes is rolling out to grocery stores across the u.s. including stores like kroger joining us, jeff ubben and jonathan webb. jerks thank you for joining us jonathan, what's -- gentlemen, thank you for joining us jonathan, what's different about these total compared to the
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tomatoes already out on the produce shelves? >> a couple thing. one we don't have the harsh chemicals that you see on tomatoes shelves right n.o.w., the usda came out with a study saying nearly 80% of cherry tomatoes had at least one chemical pesticide and 20 rz of tomatoes had up to five chemicals on it. getting the harsh chemicals out. beyond that, using technology the align with nature to grow with 90% less water than open field agriculture. and we get about 30 times yield per acre n. a world where we need to produce a lot more food with a lot less resources, we need the use technology and infrastructure to more efficiently grow our fruits and vegetables that's what we are doing right here today in this facility in kentucky. >> jeff, to me, this feels very jeff ubben, esg play you have been critical of everything turning into an esg play and all the funds going to esg
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right now. why is company like this ditch what is your beef with esg in general right now? >> well, this sort of company, sara, has to happen. for me, it's not esg it is what does the core business do to improve society and the environment? if you live in california, i had the opportunity to go to the central valley, where 80% of the tomato paste is made they are getting out of total. there is just no water anymore we repurposed water as a higher use and a hire value for environmental purpose, water sheds and other things if you think about, where are we going to get our produce if california is going to almonds and pistachios only, enthis you end up in mexico mexico is famous for their hot houses it is not a great use of labor practices. it ends up two weeks old on the
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shelf. when jonathan came to me with this idea of currenting kentucky into the netherlands of north america, which the netherlands feeds two thirds of europe, it made sense to me it is nature based it is not buying warehouse asks filling them up with energy. we are using the sun 12 hours a day. and using rain kentucky ends tends to be getting more rain than anyone due to climate change. >> is this purely going be the based in kentucky or is this that you can get closer to where the food is consumed even in high-rise buildings in places like new york? >> there is a reason why we picked kentucky. i love where i am from we have a record amount of rainfall here. jeff is talking about rain why are we on planet earth water. what is 95% of a fruit and
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vegetable? it is water. being able to run this facility completely on recycled rain water, package it out as a fruit and vegetable is long term resiliency it keeps our costs low we are not paying for water because we are collecting all of the rain water and using it in our system beyond that, why this region, we can goat to 70 pshz of the u.s. in a one-day drive amazon is building their largest prime facility in the worth right now in northern kentucky so you don't have to ask us about distribution look at u.p.s. in juvenile with their global air hub we are going to grow some of the largest indoor ago facilities and put it here where we can get to 70% of the u.s. in a one-day dive the u.n. visited last year to see what we were doing the world is watching. and we need to get it right here on the home front. you look at the problems facing the world the u.n. put out -- we
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need 50 to 70% more today by 2050 people saying we would need two planet earths to grow that food with the way we are currently growing it we don't have a lot of time to figure this out. and i have tried to say -- my background was building some of the largest solar in the world here in the u.s. this is the third wave of sustainable infrastructure 20 years ago it was renewable energy ten queerg it was electric vehicles right now it is controlled environment agriculture. to jeff's point, we do not have a choice we have got to figure out how to use private sector capital, use technology, build infrastructure, and better align with the planet both for people and planet and to me, maybe the most important piece out of all this, martha stewart joined our board. and i asked her yesterday -- she had the first tomatoes, martha, how do the tomatoes taste? so these are -- here jest juicy, they are flavorible, good tomatoes, the way a tomatoes should taste right now what you see happening -- and jeff when he was talking about mexico, you know, they are breeding seeds
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for transportation so you have -- you are not breeding it for flavor or taste. you are breeding the seed to sit two weeks on a truck whereas we can breed the speed for flavor, nutrient density, naturally breed the seed, not genetically modified so we are optimistic about what the future of agriculture holds. but we have a lot of work to do. and jeff can tell you about david lee, who just joined us as our president. and david is coming to us from the cfo and coo of impossible foods. we have a lot of work on the ground to do but a good team around us for the coming years. >> learning a lot about tomatoes jeff, on the capital side, and david joining the company, will, you are launching this via spac. a lot of people look at the spac mania and think it is a sign of froth or bubbles or overexuberance why do this via spac, jeff >> i mean, the spac hype model -- it surprised me i mean, it's pretty new.
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but i have said this before, when you are in food and energy, you are putting metal to the ground and these are big balance sheet -- big balance sheet problems like i said, these use cases, they deserve the capital but the venture capital community is not interested in big balance sheet businesses it turns out that the big institutional investors are moving their time horizons longer term, and they see these problems that need a solution, and they are there, they are there, writing checks. now it is a fire hose in your mouth if you are a young company that's going public, perhaps before you are ready but it has this interest effect where you get your house in order pretty damn fast and allows to you attract capital to the balance sheet -- i mean,
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talent to the balance sheet. and david lee is a perfect example. you know, he would not -- i don't think he would be joining if we weren't public and he didn't see the ability to use public currency to be first to control environment agriculture and be proven boy the balance sheets the asset managers to make this industry come' live. so you know, there is going to be some rough roads. it is not going to be a straight line, but it does bring talent and capital together to solve our biggest problems >> jeff, stepping away from this particular investment a little bit, when you look across the broader markets and spaces are one example of it, a huge rush particularly this last year and in the final quarter, do you feel like the broader markets are looking a little bit frothy at the moment? >> i do.
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i mean it is a retail-driven market more than i have seen a lot of people have money in the bank, and they are at home and they are even not going to the horse track. and so that -- that money has probably doubled in terms of its participation in the stock market on a stock by stock basis. and that usually is a bad sign we will leave it there jeff -- >> yeah. -- >> sorry, go for it, sara. final one. >> i just had a final one, jeff, on esg a lot of people are even more bullish on esg plays into the biden administration do you think that is a good bet, specifically tied to certain policies that we are going to see? >> jonathan, you should speak to the work we are doing in d.c i think it is -- i think the biden administration is going to be there in a big way embracing
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the industries that can change the world. you know, the other thing -- the other thing that's cool about what jonathan can do with that harvest, you know, the traditional model is go lobby for policy what jonathan did in kentucky, he put $150,000 of start-up money into the schools, into k-12, into higher education, to see the curriculum in a controlled environment agriculture with help from netherlands. what happened is teachers and school administrators called the governor we didn't call the governor. it was ground-up, grassroots effort to get -- and then you -- now all of a sudden jonathan has this relationship with the government since we are land heavy and need help with zoning and infrastructure where the governor and jonathan are very close and working well together but it wasn't lobbying dollars it was putting money in the
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community and having it come back to you. that model -- that's a whole new way of doing business. that's where environmental and social come together and they reinforce. and that's what biden will see it's jobs. it's fair pavement it's the whole thing. >> jeff and jonathan thank you both very much for joining us. much appreciated it. still ahead, shares of insurance company lemon aide cooled off after a big run following the company's july ipo. we will speak with the ceo about the volatile moves and his message for short sellers. back in a couple of minutes.
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words that zeeg is going use them regarding wildfire risk it is the first time their software is being used by a utility. that stock up 4.5% roku with an outperform rating the firm says roku has a significant advertising opportunity. roku is up about 6% on that news today. sara >> still ahead on the show, n netflix was the darling of the pandemic as people were stuck at their home can they keep up with the momentum amid a slew of new players? earnings hit right after the bell we are all over it. as we head to break a check
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on bonds for you yields starting to out the week a little bit lower, i think, last check yep, ten-year yield 1.09%. a bit of reversal from where we were this morning. we'll be right back here on "closing bell. what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience
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dow is up 139. time for our daily coronavirus traerk as of this morning, more than 400,000 people have died from covid-19 since the pandemic reached the united states. nearly one year ago. more than 12 million americans have now been vaccinated but the distribution effort continues to hit roadblocks n. florida, for instance, more than 40,000 people are now reportedly overdue for their second shot. that number has been rising since last week. dr. anthony fauci offering a glimmer of hope, though. he was speaking at a harvard business review live stream event today saying that if biden's vaccine plan is executed successfully the u.s. could
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reach herd immunity this fall. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. hi, sue. >> hello wilf. good to see you. le as sara mentioned the death toll from the coronavirus has gone above 4,000 the biden administration will hold commemorations across the country tonight. new vetting of the thousand you brought in to guard the capital. two were pulled due to inappropriate comments trump supporter and my pillow ceo mike lindell says multiple retailers drop his products after his repeated false claim of voter fraud in the presidential election. the russian opposition leader aelectiony navalny's team released their investigation into what they call putin's palace they claim the massive complex owned by the russian president cost at least $1.3 billion
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russian officials say the allegation is untrue. and on the u.s./mexico border, yep, those are see saws, instead in the wall. they were up for less than an hour in july of 2019 but they made enough of an impression to win the design of the year award from a lon on the museum and allowed kids briefly to play with each other despite the border wall. >> i love that. know this is my favorite story of the day. you know, ingenuity. if there is a way to get kids together, and it takes pink see saws, so be it, i guess. >> i wonder what the spanish is for see saw. >> that, i don't know. >> still they came together, regardless of what the respective names are sue, thank. >> he 28 minutes left until the close. here's where we stand, higher across the board for major afternoons led by some of the big tech names nasdaq up 1.5 rz dow up 1.4% lemonade fizzling out after
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jumping more than 140% over the past three mthon we will talk with the company's ceo about the stock's recent run when "closing bell" returns. do ! $7 going once. going twice. sold to the onion lover in the front row! next up is lot number 17, a spinach and artichoke dip, beautifully set in a hollowed-out loaf of sourdough bread. don't get mad get e*trade and get more than just trading investing. banking. guidance. flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling. to fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. labradoodles, cronuts, skorts. (it's a skirt... and shorts) the world loves a hybrid. so do businesses. so, today they're going hybrid with ibm.
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percent, down more than 20% from its highs after a negative tweet with a short seller. the stock price, however, rose 140% before it began falling joining us, lemonade ceo and cofounder. thank you for joining us. >> good to be here >> the valuation multiple that your company enjoys. a lot of that reston the level on which investors believe you are total owe reinventing the insurance model. lots of other insurance companies are using tech and data and a.i. in a similar way to you, some say what do you say to them? >> i think those who have been investing in the company -- as you said the stock has been up some 5x since the ipo.
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believing insurance may be the most disruptive industry on the planet i think there is pattern recognition going on here. in recent years we saw how people's writing moved from paper to digital and how music moved from cassettes and cds to stream asking mp 3 and how film moved to chemical to detectival. every time an industry saw it is substrate shift from analogue to digital you saw a few things happen you saw customers get an amazing experience for a fraction of the cost you saw explosive growth and you saw a changing of the guard. and i think there is a case to be made that insurance is going through something similar, that an industry that has been around for hundreds of years and done in a particular way with brokers and with paper is finding it's shifting, through companies like lemonade, onto a digital substrate, and suddenly you see explosive growth you know, we just hit 1 million
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customers four years after founding it took usaa, an incredible company, 47 years the get to that same milestone. when you see that kind of 10x change, there a change in degree that amounts to a change in kind. >> last week -- story, 10th of january, to be reprecise your cofounder and coo issued a defense of the stock price in response to the short sellers and quickly deleted the tweets why did he delete them >> i don't think he was defending the stock price. we take little interest in the day to day stock price s that multiyear, indeed multidecade journey we are on. insurance companies can last for hundreds of years. when we are going to try and do is not going to be done in quarters or months the short-term price of the stock was not of interest the him. it is not of particular interest to me. we have an eye on the long term. what he was taking umbrage at is
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people doing less than deep analysis in order to drive stock, if they are short selling in order the produce returns there producing reports that he felt weren't compelling. he deleted it because hom we have just found an outpouring of support by investors, by the community at large and overall, we couldn't be more grateful to the investor community who has continuously doubled down on lemonade and believed in the future i think with good reason our most recent published reports show your business doubled in size even though -- halved you are seal acceleration of the business, you are seeing customer satisfaction levels, nps levels that are equivalent to tesla or apple, which is unheard of in insurance. as we see the fly wheel spin faster and thatback and the move to a better digital experience feed on itself, more more people
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believe there is something worth looking at more seriously. >> was it unfortunate that the company sold stock -- insiders sold stock the same day, the defense of the stock price broadly, whatever you called it, was issued by the coo? >> i think that's a matter really of indifference we sold stock at $165 which was where it was at and a $10 billion valuation. we felt it made sense to increase the reserve has the company has. we raised $1.4 billion since the founding of the company. we have over 1.1 so we are in a very strong position given the aspirations of the company that's a good thing. we continue to accelerate and lean into the kind of investments that were made as fast as the launch has been and the product launches have been and -- we look forward to doubling down on those going forward. daniel, just on this whole question of differentiating
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yourself from the competition and really disrupting the insurance business, multitrillion dollar business which i think is why your stock is valued at almost $9 billion and no profit -- what is actually the key differentiator? i heard you talk about this issue of trust people like the geico commercials. they like the state farm commercials. why do you say trust what are you actually doing differently there? >> yeah, so, we have seen this in the data, but you know, from dinner table conversations, people don't actually trust insurance companies. most americans when surveyed say they don't believe their insurance company will pay them when the day come. indeed most americans consider insurance to be not a social good but a necessary evil. which is such a shame from an incredible industry that's all about helping people in their hour of need the business model which is that the way consumers see their insurance is that i have paid
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you all this money and now when i need you we are in a conflicted relationship. that accuracy distrust lemonade has tried to build an awe alternative business model we have a flat fee model we never make money by denying claims we are aligned with our consumers and use charities as a third party where underwriting profits not used to pay claims go to non-profits and that is an annual giveback. it changes the relationship from a conflicted rip to a trilateral trusting relationship. and we founded lemonade as a default based on bhaifl economics thinking and social sciences on the one hand and i.a. and signaturization on the other. you combine the two and end up with something qualitatively business that has been driving rates down they can buy insurance for half the price of the geicos and
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state farms of this world. but it creates a trust in the that people tweet about and share and that drives the feedback. >> on that point about charitie one of the short selling points is you are attracting funds because you are self described as an esg play how much have you given to charity as part of the business model? >> we don't self describe as esg. we describe what we do and investors make a decision as they see fit but the answer is quite a lot. we have a couple of platforms of giving so we have a giveback, an annual giveback along the lines that i just described we gave over $1 million there just this recent july. we do that every year naturally dependent on the underwriting results which is in person dependent on the good fortune and behavior of the insurance companies. that creates that alignment. that's about 10x more than the
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fortune 100 gives, that's a big jump, as you said for a company that's not even yet profitable we gave equity to non-properties we established the lemonade foundation and put equity into that that's worth $75 million that is now in the hands of that non-profit a sizable chunk of change, no doubt. >> daniel, we certainly appreciate you coming on and talking about all this with us. >> thank you both. >> dan gel schreiber, ceo of lemonade before it was public, lemonade was a two time disruptor company. now cnbc is taking nomination force 2021 disruptor list. there is an official nomination form on our website. check that out. still ahead on "closing bell," the dow is up 145 points.
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s&p is up almost a full% strength in groups like energy, communication services and technology mike, the best performing s&p industry right now is consumer finance. am exis leading the dow. it is up 4%. does that tell you this is a fiscal stimulus is coming kinds of rally >> well, a big upgrade from american express i think that stock in particular is playing catch up to some other consumer finance plays i think everyone is working on the assumption that we have a refreshed consumer you have the excess savings, you also have more stimulus to come. if it comes through close to what is proposed people are going to be talking about potential for overheat down the road from consumer spending. i think it fits together i think in general the big cap indexes have been kinds of consolidating, going sideways while a lot of the more aggressive stuff continues to percolate around the edges it is still an interesting where the over allmarket is cooling down while we still have the favorite pockets of speck escalation growth expectations
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moving fast. >> mike, three trading days in a row black rock, jp morgan, goldman sachs all smashed earnings estimates, all traded down on the day. i guess a highlight of some of the cyclical sectors, financials in particular ran up in the short-term. >> exactly her going to trade with the yields if the yields are not rising as an incremental mover then yes how much more can we except than they already did this quarter? it makes some, earnings season you have mean reversion, some sell the news. but none of this is compromising the longer term moves with that sector. >> where are you lindsey especially on big tech the nkds really working today. we are looking for a record close. >> i think when you think about technology, as we enter earnings season i actually think this is one of the sectors that could do
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better than anticipated. of course the financials they ran up going into the earnings reporting period you also saw earnings expectations move higher going into the period. you haven't seen that in the technology sector. so i think this is one of the sectors that does actually have room to run. it is interesting -- it has been an interesting sector to watch of course. it has about 25% of the s&p 500's market cap and people are worried that it accounts for too much of the large index. but i think what we are going to hear from earnings season is that these companies are still performing well while there was a lot of -- there was a big shift early last year into some of these names and also into the adoption of technology in our lives in general inthat's going to continue it's not going to go away. but i do think that investors are out there looking for places to rotate into, out of technology, and into place where is they might be more upside
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opportunity. >> ubs issuing a word of warnin about chewy, pfeiffer and peloton to sell. saying the three stocks are emblematic of growth over valuation. should be wary chewy, peloton and pfeiffer are all lower today, but all three up triple digits since this time last year. quite significant moves there, of course. i guess the timing, mike, of this is one to watch and what exactly the trigger was to lead ubs to move to sell. because there could have been any number of moments over the last three or four months, and they have continued to rally, i guess, in face of plenty of evidence that they could be overbought. >> never they have continued to roll, some off their highs but i think the aggregate market caps of chewy and peloton, both near 45 billion, it is tough to make the valuation math work this your
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favor if you are starting at that buy point obviously they are both going to continue growing, both in good spots in the market. everyone agrees about that it is not about whether or not demand goes away it is much more about what's already priced in also the larger stocks now look on a relative bases to have more tame valuation the fangs out there, if you put them up against these stocks that seem like they have tough comparisons coming up, maybe that's a relative call everybody wants to find the next tesla, lindsey what do you tell clients that ask if they should be buying names hike these which have been huge beneficiaries of the pandemic environment but whose stock has been run up so far >> it is a difficult question because our retail customers definitely are huge fans of not only tesla but neoand other electric vehicle companies that are out there. it is a similar calling from what you are hearing from ubs.
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if you have been in tesla the last couple of month and you are up significantly it might be worth taking profits off the table and reevaluating what your portfolio looks like and reevaluating where opportunity might lie within the market. that's how we view stocks like this not that tesla can't continue to run but the performance has been strike asking fast and furious. >> the biggest winner right now in the s&p 500 is general motors, up 9.5%. microsoft making a big investment in gm's self driving car unit, cruise fill lebeau has the details. >> reporter: its best single day since last may here's the reason why. as you mentioned, general motors and microsoft, they are going to be working together on the development of autonomous vehicles both of them are part of a $2 billion investment round announce pied gm's subsidiary cruise here's what's going on they are going to be plowing $2 billion into cruise along with honda, other institutional
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investors. that brings cruise's valuation to $30 billion also, microsoft's technology software, cloud computing -- that will be key to the development of cruise' autonomous vehicle network >> the first and the top priority of course is to make sure that we are deploying this technology in the safest most reliable way possible. that's critically important as we build trust in what we are doing and build trust in the technology we are still a ways away of seeing that network actually have its first public rollout. that's but that's expected in theas couple offiers you don't see this chart gm outperforming tesla, ford, stla, that's sell the anti which is sta and peugeot now trading as one stock heck of a day for general motors today. guys back to you gives microsoft a foot hold in driverless cars. phil, what's the competition
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are they up against google here with waymo >> you are going up against them argo a.i zooks is in this space as well there are a number of start-ups here but cruise and waymo, those are two of the ones that people will be focused on the most and tesla is out there elon musk continues to say look we will have full self driving cars out on the road he has been saying that for some time but that's are the players that people will be focusing on over the next several years. >> nice move for general motors. netflix is just minutes away from ticking off big tech earnings this quarter. julia boorstin has a preview of what we can expect julia. >> wilf we are closely watching netflix's subscriber numbers they projected the addition of 6 million subscribers in this quarter. a key number investors are watching the other key subscriber number to watch is net flick's expectation force the first quarter. analysts forecasting they will
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guide to 8.4 million new subscribers in q 1 the other key areas to watch are the company's plans to spend more on content. any commentary on impact from netflix's rivals and expected impact on the roll out of price increases for the service. shares of netflix are up 1.5% today. they are down about 5% since the company's last earnings report apologies. the stock is now only up about half a percent today >> julia, thank you for that we are expecting the numbers to cross very close after the closing. mike santoli we discussed this one briefly last week. it has essentially chopped around flat for most of the second half of last year >> coiled up around the $500 a share mark first hit there last july. i was mentioning it early quer if you go back to when the streaming era began, 2013 for netflix, you have had had multiple sideways periods where it has gone nowhere for a year or year and a half and then goes
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up of into the next up leg it seems like the stock is in a bunched up range although thea lot of glow has been stolen by disney+ and roku you don't have to own netflix for that purpose. >> netflix always talks directly about competition in their share how woulder letter we will see what they say with it two minutes to go in the seg mike, what do you see in the internals? >> two to one upside to downside it is relatively broadly participation in this rally. it doesn't seem like the average stock is out performing because you have the mega cap tex leading the way. but it seems pretty well supported by breadth in there. if you look at the high beta etf, the most aggressive, most cyclical names in the margaret on a month to date basis that's where all the action has been. stable stocks, low volatility, staples done nothing
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up 178%. semis are a big chunk of that as well as financials venn the volatility index has come in, you might expect after a three-day weekend to have rebuild this the have tilt expectations not happening. it is still in that range, 20 to 25 talked about it earlier, we might have to get used to the idea that it does not collapse back into let's say thelow teens or 12 areas the way it has through other rallying periods. >> just under one minute left in the session. today is a soft dollar day down only .3%. nonetheless allowing oil to rally 1% gold is up .5% having had a tough couple of weeks and the teernl yield which was higher in the session is fractionally lower. 1.885. energy has been the best performing sector. outside of that sector there is a growth tilt to what is outperforming. kbhuks services and technology the next two best performing sectors. three sectors in the red,
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utilities, consumer staples and real estate. the dow is up 120 points or so, or .4% the nasdaq leads the charge, up 1.5% not quite at the levels needed for a record all-time closing high about five or six points away from that. still, a healthy day for the nasdaq, up 1.5% at the close the russel close behind, up 1.3% sara strong all around. growth, value, technology. except for defensive welcome back, everyone, to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen here with wilfred frost and mike santoli nbc's senior markets commentatcomment. look at how we finished up the day on wall street rally day from the get-go. dow up 116 at the close. boeing had the most positive impact on the dow adding more than 40 point. s&p 500 up .8% most sector ending the day in positive territory i mentioned the defensive lag. real estate and utilities down
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everybody else was up. best performance energy, continuing the recent comeback, 2% day for energy on the pop of higher oil prices the nasdaq, shy of a record close, up 1.5% for for the technology heavy nasdaq. the russell 2000 index of small caps having a strong day, up 1.3% the growth and value trades worked both ways today visitarsors are anxiously awaiting netflix earnings due out moments from now we will have instant reaction and analysis as soon as the numbers hit the wires. first let's talk about the market lindsey bell is still with us. first, i will send it to you, mike santoli, with the mix of bank earnings were not that well received janet yellen testifying before capitol hill what were the key drivers that l.e.d. to the broad rally today. >> people rediscovering the fact that the growth stocks have done nothing for a while. the nasdaq 100 was an
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outperformer the question coming into the weekend was was the market rolling over it was spinning more slowly. you saw it give way a bit. today it says not necessarily. it seems like it might be consolidating around the 3800 mark in the s&p 500 has been the axis we have been around eight weeks or so. indecisive but not making down. >> the numbers on netflix as they course. revenue for the fourth quarter coming in at $6.6 billion. the forecast was $6.6 billion. net adds for the quarter beating expectations, coming in at 8.5 million. the forecast was for 6.4 million. the net adds for the fourth quarter well ahead of expectation, though revenue only in line with expectations. of course still up 22% or so year over year in terms of the forecast for q 1 next year. revenue essentially in line for what people were hoping for. $7.1 billion forecast was for $7 billion. net adds a little soft for the
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forecast for next quarter, coming in at 6 million, the forecast, 8.4 million. essentially beating on the fourth quarter on net adds by 2 million but missing in terms of the guidance just bringing it forward which of course is a nice problem to have might need to dive into other details a little bit more as we look at the shares, up 5 or 6% due to that net adds in the quarter beat is mike there? >> yeah. >> i was seeing reacting nicely. >> the upside in the net adds. the idea they have proven to have pricing power, they put increases in that's part of the bull case without a duty we mentioned the stock had been soft for months right now so there was a lint of room for that upside. surprised even though they missed on the eps line. >> they always mention, they have this whole shareholder letter, mike i was looking for the competition. they do name some names here
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the big growth in streaming entertainment has led disney warner media and discovery to compete with us which we have been expecting netflix says that's why we have been moving so quickly to grow and strengthen their original content library. the competition, has it hurt net flick at all in any way? >> not really in an observable way, mostly because i don't think it has developed into a winner take all type market. it's sort the top one, top two, top three, which every you are going to own whatever group of services customers are likely to sub describe to, netflix is in that mix. there is almost number who owns the others and not netflix i am sure there will be gives and takes in the years as it goes on. u.s. saturate is a risk and all the rest of it but netflix is not necessarily surrendering market share.
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years ago, we all know this, the challenge is to become hbo before hbo becomes us. i think that's kind of what happen, they got there first in terms of where the customer base was going before, now hbo is becoming involved. let's go to alec sherman has has analysis on what is crossing the table and what might be coming later from netflix. >> thanks, wilf. i think the important thing to look at is netflix is saying that it is going to be cash flow positive for every year after 2021 and now excepts to be break even cash flow for 2021 it's also saying it will not need outside financing moving forward. so the bear case against netflix for years now has been that the overwhelming costs of original content will simply be too expensive. this seems the fly in the face of that. netflix basically says, look, we are going to be able to generate enough cash from our operations
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to self fund net application has borrowed $15 billion in the last ten years, since 2011 it now says it will no longer need to borrow any more money. obviously netflix was helped by the pandemic this past year. big jump in subscribers. but this very much val dates the long term bull thesis for netflix investors. >> alex thanks very much for that in fact, this is stated, page 5 of the release i can read it verbatim, what they are saying, we believe we no longer have a need to raise external financing for our day to day operations. they talk about their 5.375% bond that matures in february 2021, ie in less than a month's tight. they say they plan on repaying the bond out of cash on hand as we clearly have well before our minimum cash needs they say as we generate excess cash, quote, we will he can more returning cash to shareholders through stock buybacks as we did
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2007 to 2011 julia has more analysis in what's in this release mike, they have had experiences of buybacks in the past. i am interested that they do specifically refer to it in this release. how successful was it, albeit a long time ago? >> it was almost a different company back then. it was purely a distributor. it wasn't as if they had massive million dollar commitments to investing. and they are just saying they would consider buybacks if they are generating cash above their needs. they get to combine their needs. that makes all the sense in the world which is to essentially say we are no longer consuming capital, whatever we set for the content budget and we can share some act with shareholders whether it is a good valuation to be purchasing this stock right is a constant question but i see where the math takes
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them if they continue to have cash flow growth. >> stock is up in after-hours trading. julia boorstin has been pouring through the release. what stands out. >> i think it is interesting to note the past quarter they had 2.2 million subscriber additions. this quarter they expected 6 million and expected that number to grow to 8.5 million next quarter. instead they reported 8.5 million this quarter the question we will hear on the call is whether there is a full forward from what have been added in this next quarter so there is the question of the lack of ability to really forecast how much of this growth is sustainable and how much of it is pulling the growth forward after such a low growth number last quarter they are ramping up the original content slate and also the local original content slate, it is important as they compete in the
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different markets that they have content that is specific such as bar bearians in germany. they said 37 million households chose globally to watch that in the last four weeks. i think we will hear about kmo content that then has a global appeal and as disney investments more in content as they mentioned they are trying the ramp up all of that localized content. >> including putting numbers around queen's gam about it which they say sparked a new generation of chess aficionados and helped raise the appeal of chess globally and a number of other examples let's check into these numbers with two guests. bernie as a neutral rating on netflix's stock which is now surging, bernie, more an 8%. whether it is the cash flow neutral headline, the better subscribers numbers, what's your initial take away? >> i think it is the cash flow
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neutral. what alec was talking about before, no longer needing external financing, break even free cash flow in 2021 the commentary from the prior quarter was they gotive ability the break even now just break even. that's a better guide there. there is also increasing their operate margin guide for '21, it was 19% established in the prior earnings call. now it is 20%. i think all of those are pointing to the sustainable free cash flow profile. and subscriber adds are better for 4q, lighter for 1q i think that's what you are seeing from the stock here it has been lagging the other faang names. down 6% over the last three months a bit of catching up >> ed lee, your top line thoughts >> i -- look, i think the cash flow is really the story here, the fact that they bask esay they are not going to go to the -- basically say they are
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not going to go to the bond market to borrow any more they are going to be finally a real company so to speak. they had been telegraphing that a few quarter ago so this that way it is not a huge surprise but finally they are at the subscriber level where the money coming in with fund this massive content slate that they have and they continue to spend every year i think it is a signal to the over streamers as well, disney+, hbo max you are thinking man i need to be at 200 million plus before i get to a break even standpoint and now they are talking about stock buybacks that they had done before is again showing more underlying confidence in their cash flow. i think that's what is bumping up the stock here. the 6 million forecast for this
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quarter is soft. i am wondering how much of that was normalization, meaning like from the pull forward from the coronavirus last year versus like competition from disney+ and hbo max. i think it is actually more of the latter i think they are seeing the competition. i think they are seeing, you know, more sort of switching consume remembers turning on the service, cancelling it for a month after they have seen what they want to see and they will then pay for a different services deloitte had a study out this morning that those there is a rise in that kind of activity. it is going to be harder going forward for netflix. but now finally they are at the level at which they are self funding. they have nush cash to pay back their deb and spending on original content >> bernie, i want to come back
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to you clearly, being cash flow positive is a great moment for them but once you get there and it is only just getting there, should they be buying back stock already? i mean maybe it has grown into it is valuation a little bit over the last six months but this isn't like a bank, and & a seven times p/e company which is not sort of x growth so to say to the banks but it's sort of saying our stock is cheap. i don't understand why you would be suddenly the day you turn cash positive talking about buying back stock. >> it is a good point. really it is interesting the valuation change that's going on with the company it used the always be ev to revenue and that's really what mattered. it was a subtop line story and the company is transitioning to being a free cash flow and earning story. it will be interesting to see how they can do that as you mentioned when you are gendering free cash flow now you are being valued on that so the multiple is that much higher
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we put a 30 times ultimate melon $30 of earnings on that. how much do you spend on content to drive subscriber growth so when you heard disflee plus talking about sending 16 to $18 billion on content in twour. really we think there is upside risk to netflix in terms of cash going from 15 to 20. does it have to go to 30 billion over time or 25 billion? really, the stakes are really high like a disney who is all in, and we think it is going to push net licks to spend higher and make it that much harder for traditional media companies to compete. >> it is funny you know, all of these services are named in this shareholder letter, ed they don't shy away from it. they say discovery recently launched its program
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they each put in the disney+ numbers. 87 million paid subscribers. and added that netflix recorded its biggest year of paid membership growth in history after the pandemic -- this accelerated a huge trend that all of these companies have been working on post pandemic, what does this landscape look like for netflix versus the competition >> sara, i think you made the right point there, they are actually mentioning their direct competitors. it used to be they would talk about sleep is our competition and youtube is our competition these are all true but i think they are finally seeing here the actual in the performance that wow these guys are lobl betaking market share away from us. if you talked to reed hastings directly he will tell you that disney+ or disney is the company that he eyes closely as a direct competitor given their ip and how well they are pulling off their new service.
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just mention mentioning it is a big deal look i think they are going to be losing market share but they got such a huge headstart, especially this the u.s. in the you can area that they are not going away their growth will be slower going forward. i think yeah, if they think in terms of as far as their story the free cash flow story i think it is going to be more of the latter doing forward once you hit that mark. and then now we are just going to be comparing you know, how -- [ indiscernible >> we lost your audio but we got the point. little shaky there on the audio, ed thank you. as netflix surges now, 10%, after hours. >> sorry about that. >> lindsey, ed, we appreciate ifltd we will have more on netflix throughout the hour. up next, the chairman of interactive brokers on the company's earnings they were just released.
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a more responsive suspension, and an aggressive wider stance. this is what we call going all in on the sport sedan. lease the 2021 is 300 for $359 a month for 39 months. experience amazing at your lexus dealer. interactive brokers eps of 69 cents, revenues of $599 million. announcing a quarterly dechbd of ten cents per share. joining us now, the ceo of interactive brokers.
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thank you for joining us. >> good afternoon. it is a pleasure thirsz i want to comment on volumes overall in 2020. how much of a year was it, and kit be repeated in 2021? >> it is very unlikely, but it would be nice. i mean, our volume is up something like 2.6 times so it is unlikely to repeat in 2021 >> to what extent that that been driven by new account openings and are those new accounts that were opened during the course of the year people who are still just as much engaged in trading as they were in the first few weeks of opening their account >> our new accounts for the year are up by 56%. and our equity is up by 66%. it is -- yeah, the new -- are
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basically just as active as the old ones have been because, as many people know, many of our accounts are indeed retail individual accounts, but we also have a lot of professional accounts, hedge funds and drop traders and registered investment advisers and so our customer mix is probably -- it is not very different than it has been before so the -- we expect it to be the same going forward so what -- >> thomas, last -- oh. go ahead >> what has attracted many of our new accounts is our extremely low margin rate, where we charge between .75 and 1.59 percent. and for larger loans, the larger
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the loan, the less we charge given that other brokers charge anywhere between 2.9 to 9 percent, it is really a mystery to me why we only have about 6% of the surrounding $20 billion of margin loans outstanding. and the year has been extremely profitable for our customers our customers as a whole have made a net return of 29.7% this past year, which is just unheard of so we are very happy about that. >> i will follow up on that margin debt point. it is growing, as you say, even if you are not getting as much of it as you think you should based on your rates. the higher margin debt, the overwhelming enthusiasm for certain stocks, the recent surge in activity in the options
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market beretail investors to exexposure, does all of this seem frothy to you >> it is somewhat frothy but if you believe in the coming inflation, as i do, then just common sense so our most popular stocks have been tesla, apple, amazon, ali alibaba, and you know, many hong kong ipos, and many of our customers are very active writing covered options on these and many of the other big stocks so this is a kind of a free for all. it's a very happy circumstance for everybody involved >> but at the same time, didn't you tell us a few weeks ago that for the first time in history, your customers were net short
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the market is that still the case and how do you square that with some of the enthusiasm that you just described >> that's right. so our large accounts, their positions are gyrating they are changing from day to day. and as of right now, they are long so they go in and out of the market very quickly. and they overwhelm the vast majority of our smaller clients. >> thomas, thanks so much for joining us we will leave it there. >> a pleasure, thank. see you again soon. joe biden set to be sworn in as the nation's 46th president tomorrow up next, mike hike will look at why history suggests the market could be in for wild ride after inauguration we will have more on netflix's numbers as well. that stock surging 10% -- 11%
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after-hours after strong subscriber numbers and on news it is considering a share buyback. we are back in a couple of minutes here on "closing bell. i have an idea for a trade. oh yeah, you going to place it? not until i'm sure. why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪♪
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historical pattern when the presidency changes >> sara, specifically when the white house control changes parties. that has only happened about eight times since 1950 this is essentially the average path of the s&p 500 of all of those scenarios. remember last year we said if the incumbent party looks like, et cetera not going to win re-election the market struggles ahead of election day. that kind of happened this time and then you have this rebound we are right here. we have already had the rally you typically get. what this is suggesting is once you get toward inauguration and people's hopes and expectations for the new administration's policy become broad low assumed there is a little bit of a struggle as that goes through and we get to the weaker seasonal parts of the year obviously not a prediction but it wouldn't be surprising to have this be one of the head winds of sentiment. netflix reported numbers
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just moments ago it is up 10.5% in after-hours trade. julia boorstin has been digging through the release if investors are reacting to the user growth. sub ib skrooer for next quarter growth fell lower than expectations it is reported much of the better than expected growth in the fourth quarter came from the europe, middle east africa region which added over 4 million new users versus the 2.9 million which was suspected. they will do long term stock performance every january noting its annualized performance since his ipo is 40% compared to 13% for the nasdaq and it is cumulative return is over 50,000% since that time compared to 830% for the nasdaq
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triking numbers there as netflix looks to remind its investors just how much it has given back to them. >> julia, thank you for highlighting that. up 10.4% after-hours for more let's bring ben silverman in and jessica lessin, on the phone. good to have you beth. ben, that's the big headline they are going to be cash flow break even 2021. with all the content spending they have been doing and all the hits they keep churning out actually i think the biggest headline will be netflix will have exciting news about bridgerton later this week what does it tell you that the economics here are changing? >> i am glad you segued to the culture and content. that's where ledman can comment on i am watching them continue to have the freshest content in all of streaming they were the most prepared for the acceleration that the pandemic brought on to streaming
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and they are literally doubling down they are launching a movie a week that they announce asked they have so much good original content ask. the work it works globally a french originated show shot in french with a french movie star at its helm based on super all french i sprks the fifth watched show in america right now according to their own metrics it is amazing the way that ecosystem is working globally. >> jessica, more than 200 million subscribers. you heard what julia said, where the latest growth is coming from, outside the u.s. how do you think about the runway ahead for netflix now that the pricing is sticking and they are in a better financial position. >> growth was expected to slow a little bit clearly we are not seeing that
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that's something investors are cheering along with the free cash flow. the pandemic caused them to curb some of the quite wild spending. while it continue i think there are signs of belt tighten here that seem to be paying off as well. >> ben, what is the next frontier for netflix in do you think they should or ever will get into live content, whether that's news or sports or other type of set piece shows and then try to get into more advertising revenue? or have they proven the model that they have got works just fine. >> well, clearly there is so much added competition, and everyone is going to be spending on original content. and i know that my father activated his hbo max subscription upon seeing the movies they were going release so there is more and more fire power entering this realm. but i really think this is not a zero sum gain and all of these streamers are starting to benefit and grow as they deliver really good original content as relates to netflix we are
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launching an interactive show, our second one we have done with bear grills this the meddle of february that they just announced. i really think interactivity has a long way to go and netflix right now is the leader in that. it is more experiment sakes and there is a lot you can do there and unlock in engagement with activity clearly their investment globally and also in lower cost programming. it is not that they are doing less programming it is that they are diversifying their programming mix. for every $10 million an hour crown or how much that might be, $20 million an hour, they are also doing 3 to $500,000 reality shows as well. which i think is great in terms of diversifying the mix and finding something for everyone in addition, i think the doors are going to open to advertising
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money. >> ben, from your position as a content creator a show runner when you look at the landscape there are so many options on streaming, which is the dream partner? who do you go to first who is paying the most money who has the most open mind what is the landscape like. >> we are still heavily invested in broadcast and cable television it is still an environment that we can participate further downstream off the network airings, off the cable airings in wretch. so we continue to up vest, and we believe there is a lot of great opportunities to gather large audiences in those platforms. for the streamers in general we are making shows for all of them and are looking as they expand internationally we are starting to do spanish language programming for multiple
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programs when we have relationships with i am not clear yet on what the personals of all of these platforms are and whether they want to just become television as it existed and recreate it within their own streaming service and appeal to everyone or do they want to start to have more of a personality and kind of a profile as it relates to the content they have. so far, disney+ feels like the only one who has established that jessica what are you hearing in terms of the amount of fresh content ready to be released in the coming cup of quarters have all of the platforms managed to sort of bridge the pandemic gam or get us through the next quarters and will there be a shortage and therefore a premium on the shows that are here and ready to be released in the next few months? >> it's a great question we did a story how net 36 was one of the first to get production up and running again, in part because it has invested so much in non-u.s. facilities
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for doing that so i think they are in a real pole position to get inventory sooner rather than later yes, there will be delays, but i think, you know, they have been preparing and are expecting a pretty strong pipeline >> well, they certainly had big wins this past three months. bridgerton, queen's gam about it so many, ben and jessica, thank you. always fun talk about this angle. netflix soaring after yars another check. up 11% technology stocks no longer seen by investors as the biggest energy bubble. check out what is now viewed as the most crowded trade on wall street that's coming up
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i trust 'em. i think you can too. call now! welcome back netflix now up more than 12% after hours. let's get a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> hello, sara good to see you. hello, everyone. here's what's happening at this hour president trump has just given his farewell speech. in the prerecorded comments, he said his administration accomplished its goals and then some he also said he expects his political movement to continue >> now, as i prepare to hand power over to a new administration at noon on wednesday, i want you to know that the movement we started is only just beginning. >> president-elect biden's choice to head the pentagon says he will work the rid the u.s. military of quote racists and
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extremists he says he also looks forward to refurbishing alliances. and ford is being forced to recall 3 million vehicles with potentially defective takata air bags that recall includes vehicle from the 2006 year to the 2012 that's a lot of vehicles. up next, goldman sachs and bank of america both reported results this morning we will discuss the main takeaways anlo aadd okhe to morgan stanley tomorrow with a top analyst. "closing bell" back in a couple of minutes
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find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. goldman sachs and bank of america both closed lower today after reporting earnings before the bell goldman crushed top and bottom line estimates, bank of america crushed on revenues but missed on eps morgan stanley reports tomorrow. let's bring in steven dueback. good afternoon to you steven thank you for joining us i wanted the dive in an on area you were asking a question on on the goldman sachs call about trading revenue for goldman sachs. what do you think of this huge perfo performance over the last year is just one off and that the
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industry may be seeing a conner turned versus declining margins over the prior decade. >> thanks for having me on, that's a great question and certainly one that we investors are struggling wii with given 2020 trading strength was so -- the one thing we are encouraged by is that the straight and the analyst community is reflecting aggressive normalization in trading activity which i think is appropriate what they are missing with goldman is the fact this company has transformedish i was in on the trading side which enabled them to gain more market share than anyone else over the past couple of years. that's something i think is getting lost in some of the 2020 i had treeing strength where people are having difficulty unpack that. what it ultimately boils down to is street estimates are too low there is a 10 to 15% upside to
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numbers. as people continue to trade those numbers, the stock is going to go up. >> what is your price target. >> i you vit as a buying opportunity. i don't think the price action is representatives of the discussions hear the having with investors that are much more constructive even with today's selloff, it is still the strongest performer year to date it had come in red hot in our view this is a city council where there is a credible case for a $400 valuation over the next 12 to 18 months there is a tremendous am of upside here. >> steven, overall bank stocks have come back at the beginning this year and toward the end of last year as the value stocks have been in favor and really started working. where do valuations bradley stand right now? how cheap is this group relative to history and the market? >> relative to history they are still extraordinarily cheap. as you noted they have started
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to recover off relative trough multiples probably around july, september time frame you did have the rotation out of growth and into value. and the banks certainly benefitted from that when i look at where these banks are trading right now i normalize earnings which assumes an economic reopening and relatively slow and steady growth you know, they are still quite cheap, probably a 10% dispoint relative to his three when i make those adjustments but the earnings moment is also improving dramatically you think about nii starting to improve as the rate outlook improve improves the credit outlook is getting better, now the banks start to return capital given that growth you are going to see the earnings algorithms improve and it is going to translate to upside. >> to wells fargo, which traded down fairly sharply on friday.
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bounced a little bit today, up by a percent or so you had a tactical with they will before earning. what came of that call >> tactic chi we are caution we upgrated them in september. now our view is there is significant long term upside because this is a company that despite challenges still would be able to generate a 12 to 13% return over time the problem is that's not going to happen overnight. we few that as some of the analysts started to upgrade the stock at the start of the year we eld felt like nii -- got ahead of themselves. and then they did the right thing. they reset the bar on earnings expectations were base the stock sold off now i am looking at the name and saying to myself even conservative assumptions about rates over the next two or three
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years as they start to improve on driving fishsy savings, there is a huge opportunity for wells there, $8 billion skrk they have realized less than half of that. it tells like this is going to be a low 40s stock over time it may take time get there some of it is contingent balance sheet growth until they check certain boxes on the regulatory side but ultimately this is a stock. >> thanks so much for joining us >> thanks so much for having me. >> still to come, two new surveys shed some light on big market bubbles yeah...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] [ding]
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being bitcoin. rating it at a maximum ten a similar bank of america showed bitcoin replaced knocking tech stocks off the top spot for the first time since october 2019 down to second place mike, how far does this make -- should this make investors want to run away from bitcoin, that it gets ten on the double scale? >> if everybody's claiming it -- >> if at all >> -- maybe there's more adherence to change over to bitcoin. if you don't own something that's gone up by a factor of four since september and seems like there's not a lot of fundamentals to hold on to, sure, let's call it a bubble in terms of it being a crowded trade, i think that's up for interception just because i don't think that most professional investors have exposure to it
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it can be crazy. it can be a purely speck tiff asset. a bubble to me said it's going to lose likelihood at some.. >> i wanted to pivot back to netflix. banks valuations and whether it's sensible to be buying stocks netflix buying back stock when they've still got plenty of debt paid down. is that a sensible move? >> it's not clear, first of all, if it is sensible at this price. it's not clear they're going to do it at this price. what they're essentially saying is we believe we have a ham on what capital needs are we can throttle back on marketing. we think we have stabl in terms of revenue expectations and if we have surplus coming in the door over and above those things, share buybacks are one of the uses. i think it's almost a
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participate torey. why pay down debt if it's manageable cost? i think it's one of these natural instincts that managements have right now in terms of getting idle cash off the balance sheet as opposed to deciding that their shares are a good buy and buying it it's almost a philosophical difference in whether it's a good value or whether it's -- let's not hoard cash >> able to and a half million subscribers, way more than the six million that was expected. you saw the banks, buy the rumor, sell the news kind of recollection this stock hasn't gone anywhere and got the big pop. >> yeah. >> what does that mean for the rest of the group we're going to get this week? >> in terms of the fang stocks,
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they've gone soidways. microsoft, alphabet, they perked up some today. something that's run hard into earnings is probably going to have more potential to pull back, something like semis, i could say. >> we're out of time here on chosing [bell] fast money money starts now. >> this is fast money. tonight's lineup, tonight, gm cruising to another all-time high how our traders are playing this record run straight ahead. plus we are breaking down the banks hitting the street today we heard from goldman sachs and bank of america. you're looking live at the national mall in washington. we start off with an earning
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