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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  January 19, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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they've gone soidways. microsoft, alphabet, they perked up some today. something that's run hard into earnings is probably going to have more potential to pull back, something like semis, i could say. >> we're out of time here on chosing [bell] fast money money starts now. >> this is fast money. tonight's lineup, tonight, gm cruising to another all-time high how our traders are playing this record run straight ahead. plus we are breaking down the banks hitting the street today we heard from goldman sachs and bank of america. you're looking live at the national mall in washington. we start off with an earnings
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alert on netflix that stock is surging almost 13% in the after hours following the strong beat on user growth let's go toe julia >> this is netflix's biggest surge since july of 2017 that's on better than expected user growth of eight and a half million. expectations for first quarter subscriber growth did fall short of expectations. the company also guided to better than anticipated first quarter bottom line results as it announced it expects the full year's free cash flow to be around break even, saying they believe they no longer have a need to explore financing and they will be returning stock to shareholders in the quarterly letter to shareholders, they write, quote, our strategy is simple if we can continue to continue,
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we can be their first choice for streaming entertainment. this boost year, disney plus had a massive year and we recorded the biggest year of pay growth in our history that starts at 6:00 p.m. eastern. melissa? >> you j to get a little more color on how the first quarter guidance fell short. if you took the fourth quarter and added it to the first quarter, how does that stack up? >> it looks like it's directly shipped against. two and a half until stronger than expected in this quarter and what netflix is guiding for in the first quarter is two and a half million short of expectations may have been just a shift of that user editions from one quarter into another we've talked a lot in the past about a pull-forward effect. the real question is how much the pap democrat ipg is pulling
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forward demand that might have existed this year and beyond >> all right yu yulia, stock is up by 12 and a half pars. catch flow positive starting next year, it doesn't mean external financing for day-to-day operations? netflix is all grown up now. >> amazing the tesla story, it's inyebl how similar that is. in the bear case for netflix has been exactly that. netflix might be going from a subscription story to a cash flow and earnings story, which i think is fascinating, something i don't think anybody would have thought. it's interesting some of the ancillary names. roku got an upare great. that stock made an all-time high today. it's interesting to see how disney trades on the back of this and to an extent, how fubo trades on the back of this we talked to rich greenfield
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how do you trade netflix on the back of this it's amazing we say it all the time read hastings, one of the most underrated, in my opinion, ceos in the country 575, i think 38 or so was the prior all-time high in september. that's your bogey. given this quarter, the stock should be through that level watch tomorrow see how it trades. my sense is it's going to trade five or six times. that's your line in the sand i would be inclined to take some money off the table heef >> when i read the shareholder letter, it struck me as to how confident management must be in its ability to generate cash and become neutral this year it says it's going to pay off the debt with cash on hand you don't say these things to shareholders unless you're
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pretty sure that you're going to do it. >> yeah. they don't say whether they're -- what price they would buy shares i agree with you they seem very confident on the cash flow break even if they buy a million shares, that's $500 million. you can't open this stock for a buy-back right? it has to be for all the other fantastic things i wouldn't have been on this ride for several hundred points, so, you know, i don't have a -- i'm not celebrating here i just think that was really an extraordinary quarter. they always seem to have guidance that, i don't know, i think they're probably underpromisers/overdeliverers. sometimes they get it wrong. if you look at the content and you look at a week or two ago and talk about how much new contact they'll have
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>> we speculated when they announced they'd have a new movie or tv show every single week of the year that would mean automatically increased cost for content that raised our eyebrows what do you think we -- you know, i say "we" in sort of a gem sense of people who are in a bear count got wrong about netflix. >> the proverbial "we" anthony at this long-time relative bear and i haven't been bullish on the stock. the story you've highway lighted here, make no mistake. this is less about content, although content leaves to cash flow neutral margin and free cash flow dynamics when i read the headlines that talked about beginning to return cash to shareholders, i said, wow, this is a very different
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thing. ultimately, again, i would go back to look, if this works for netflix, it works a lot better for disney that's my trade on this. you know that. the fact we're talking about free cash flow neutral, also where the subgrowth is coming from you rightly pointed out the cash between this quarter and the first quarter. you have what you have you have about 15 million subs is but where it's coming from some markets that are more challenging. you're getting out of the mete, eastern europe i don't want to own this valuation. there's better maces to do it. netflix clearly also has more pricing power, i thought >> we often talk about stocks that have massive runs, massive valuations and how that mayim put in terms of disney does this mean that other streaming services should be
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valued more based on what we're seeing from netflix or is netflix setting the standard so high that the other streaming services have a much harder track ahead to compete >> well, i think what's interesting about netflix is obviously that they're a first mover, they're a pioneer and they're a pure play on the streaming model. the knock for them for years was the negative free cash flow that it took to acquire this con tonight, build this massive audience we were just saying, listen, to competition's coming all these huge media companies to date, disney's barely been the only one to be able to do that in a way. because it happened during the pandemic, it hasn't been a big competitive threat we know that nbcuniversal peacock, pretty good launch, hbo max, pretty good launch. they got lucky because it all
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happened during the pandemic if you look at their 2020 ads, a lot of them happened in the first, second quarter. julia talked about that. even though that subin q4 was already than expected, i don't think it was that particularly exciting this stock made an all-time high in mid july. it made a series of -- it has a series of rejections below that prior high one in 1e79, one in october, one in november. here we are with the stock at 565. i'd be surprised if on that guidance it breaks out here. i think you probably see some profit taken i think this stock remains range bound for a bit longer here. >> what do you think is the message for the other streaming services, that you need to have this many subskriepers in order to be free cash neutral? that's a huge hill to chime for a lot of the other ones. >> no question stay the course and you'll be
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rewarded for it. charles rogers hasn't come on. he knows better than i but they have a six or seven-year head start on everybody else i don't know if you can take that math and figure disney will be there i figure they probably won't i think it's netflix' world. i think it's going to drag up some other names roku, probably on the higher on the back of it and disney getting dragged along as well. this is just my opinion. it's netflix' best in class and everybody es is vying for second place. i don't think that's going to change anytime soon. i don't necessarily think it's going to be as symmetrical to get to cash flow positive. >> we're showing you roku and disney, each up 2% let's bring in tom rogers from engine meeting a fast money friend.
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good to see you, tom >> great to be here. >> i'll start you out with the same question i asked guy and that is what is the message from the competitors of netflix in this quarter >> as a long time media veteran, what this earnings report says to me is that netflix will be the most valuable media company in the world so in that sense, i think i got it absolutely right. the thing that makes it different for disney this does not work better for disney despite the fact that i respect the hell out of him and everything he says is that with success, there is no cost to netflix. with streaming success for the legacy media companies, there is huge cost and that cost is being ignored. what we've known already is that the court cutting disruption is obvious ly breaking havoc on the
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network business what we saw this quarter is that hbo decided it could not compete in streaming without putting all of its movie slate on hbo max. i think disney is likely to follow that. they're toying with it a little bit. they talked about all kinds of flexi flexibility. when you think about the cross to the legacy business, the unramg of the cable/satellite bunting, not being able to look at what's driving the huge sort of values for disney and other companies. what it means in terms of having to forgo all licensing costs to external parties that cost is meaningful and it's not being factored in. now, the subnumbers people look at are the headline things they're meaningful but not as meaningful as pricing power as was mentioned netflix is raising price and they'll accidentally
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be doing so is across the globe. it's not as important as engagement netflix has five times the engagement in terms of hours spent than disney does it has five times what hbo and showtime have combined you have to look at budget and yes, netflix has put pressure on the other guys to increase their budget, push out the cash flow as its cash flow break ieven one third of their numbers were coming from india with sub$1 art crews which is a very different contribution in terms of international subvalue that netflix is putting up on the floor. originally it was they're going to lose friends, their whole
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programming strategy is going to go away. that turned out to be nonsense they'll never hit cash flow break even they've shown their cash flow positive this year and they're going to be cash flow positive competition is going to limit them we've seen with the competition, they're still the number one as guy said, who else are you going to have. netflix at the pole position >> tom, it's karen i hear what you're saying on pricing power. this seems like an arms race in terms of content and is that part of their strategy to just sort of a reagan era arms race and hopefully nobody will be able to compete? i know they say they like competition, but what do you think the grand strategy is? >> it's clearly to create a model, which they've done. they're on their way to 20 billion. they're on their way to this
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year one new movie -- more than one new movie a week i think a $20 billion budget they'll probably be able to introduce one series or one movie every day. they can do it very efficiently because of the international programming strategy they've developed. i couldn't believe it. i'm sitting there just last week watching a norwegian series called "occupy" which was just fantastic. they have the ability to leverage other markets and turn it into meaningful programs with huge audiences in this market. so that programming strategy just puts them way ahead clearly, disney recognizing that they have to be much more in than their original numbers stilled. went from four billion to eight billion in programming that's going to matter that's going to have impact. it will drive engagement
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netflix being in the position that well in excess of anybody else is just going to continue to be number one, and with that, i think we'll ultimately drive more value than any other media company. you could argue they're undervalued. you could argue disney is overvalued disney's $70 billion more in market netflix will be the more valuable company over time people are extremely excited about what a strong out of the gate disney record showed, but that's only -- subs are part of this >> sure. >> the rest are much more important. >> be sure and put occupy on the to watch list. always good to see you >> thanks for having me. >> bank of america said 2021 been peak competition very strong competition when it comes
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to the streaming wars but the consumers will probably have bunt for three streaming services if not netflix, then what, dan >> well, it's funny. tom makes a great point about a media company. it's going to be the most valuable one i guess the point is if disney can do what it's done the last six months, up almost 50% and with 30% of their studios and parks shut down, tom has been fantastic on netflix for years and years and years. he's schooled a bunch of us on that i think from here on out, i think what you're saying is would you rather i rather disney >> i wasn't but i'll let you do that we should let you know that this conference call -- not conference call starts at 6:00 a lot can happen on that call. what question would you have for management it seems like a critical quarter
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this one for netflix >> i think it's furthering on your question about cash flow break even that's not the end of the game what kind of cash flow could they really think about financing? >> that stock is up 123% right now. coming up, gm speeding to another record high thanks to big money from microsoft we'll tell you the news. plus another big week of the banks. out with results today we'll break down the numbers and tell you how to trade it another look at washington, d.c. as we await remarks from pt president-elect joe biden. we'll bring you that live as soon as possible he begins stay with us 'rba rhtft ts. wee ckig aerhi i made a business out of my passion. i mean, who doesn't love obsessing over network security? all our techs are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth.
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welcome back to "fast money. earnings roll in bang of america and goldman sachs posting numbers. bank of america reported mixed results. record low rates weighing on revenues for the quarter i feel like we see this all the time, the first batch of banks
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turns out to be ok and the second batch of bitmaps don't get so lucky >> we've seen it and i think we've spent a lot of time talking about how the yield curve changes didn't mean anything to net enter income in the third quarter. i think the thing with bank of america is that the theme was less than expected the credit and the capital story there are better than expected what would you rather be investing in now with a company that i think is still very cheap relative to historic and even to appears to j.p. morgan i'm long bank of america there was no reason to be buying banks aggressively into any of these earnings after in many cases a 40 to 60% move really since november i think it's the same story here you have -- all people could talk about was higher interest rates. nobody's talking about that today.
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>> yeah. karen, what did youmake of these quarters >> i agree with tim exactly on bank of america. i own bank of america as well. i don't own goldman sachs, but there's nothing not to hyka and goldman sachs. stock is up nearly 50% in lot not a lot of time. their quarters tend to be much more lumpy it doesn't give as much to lumpy earnings than it does to predictable earnings i think it's a delay to get the improvement for bank of america. they had a lot of deposits that they weren't able to earn on and i think they'll be able to expand that margin in the first quarter. there's nothing not to like about goldman sacks for sewer except it's stained a little. i own morgan stanley they're going to report
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tomorrow that's wealth management and investment banking and i think both of those will do well tomorrow maybe the stock's not too many in front of it >> management at goldman said that 2021 may not be as good in trading. surprised, surprise. guy. >> iwuoma, of course, you mentioned lumpy. i know you know that but that was bill murray's nickname in the movie "scrooged. in terms of goldman sachs, there was a $190 on november 2nd now at about 1.35 times book, you wonder if it's the extended time of pool it would make a lot of sense to go back to the july highs, nothing wrong with the quarter, nothing wrong at all then nathan, by the way, is set for a long time that morgan stanley is the best looking
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financial chart out there. we're going to find out tomorrow if he's right. my sense is he'll continue being right. >> you know what they say about a blind squirrel, mel. that was the one i think for the very reason that karen just mentioned, you know, the diversification in the streams and i think you're going to see like the lumpy trading, i think you're going to see difficult comparisons on investment banking, too. >> president-elect joe biden is about to make remarks. we'll take you there live after this quick bak re
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welcome back to "fast money. you're looking live at the national mall in washington, d.c. president-elect joe biden is an to speak on covid about the millions of americans who have died with coronavirus. jhan yellen urging lawmakers to support biden's $1.9 trillion plan, that it is important to act now and act big. why not? interest rates are at historic lows it seems to make a lot of sense, dan, but what about the debt that was the big question, the big push-back. >> they didn't care about the debt in the last few years, i don't know why they would care now. i think if ma nuch up was the second, yellen's predecessor, he was on board for something that
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looked like two trillion i think you make the point with interest rates here, with interest rates not going up anytime soon, not because of the fact they've tacked on four or $5 trillion of debt. this is the time to go big, i agree. >> karen, does this give you more hope for things like infrastructure >> definitely. i think as infrastructure you put people to work and who we really need infrastructure, now we don't need some of these other things i think more optimistic, those stocks are trading with that kind of optimism one thing she put out there was the 50-year bond, which we haven't seen but if we're going to go big, you might as well go long term, you know, increase that duration and go big i get what they're saying. i don't know i'm not fully a monetary theorist, but i think that's what they're going to do
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>> yeah. >> why not >> i believe that stephen ma nuch ip had explored the idea of a longer dated treasury. it seems like you could do that. it seems like you could sell recovery bonds or something like that to fund whatever project you wanted to fund guy. >> no doubt about it i think gary talked about it, a hundred-year bond when he was part of the administration it makes a lot of sense. it all comes back to -- you know, dan talked about it. when do these debts, when does all this matter, apparently it doesn't. as far as janet yellen trying to talk up with u.s. dollar, everything we just talked about lead to a lower dollar in 2021 although i understand people saying that's a good thing, at a certain point it's a bad thing for everybody. my concern is we're going to get that point very quickly on top of which interest rates going
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higher, again, be careful about both things happening in unison over the next few months >> i felt like i got the message that the market set the dollar, the dollar will trade as the dollar trades, tim, but maybe that's the job of a treasury secretary. i think tim is frozen. >> yeah. tim's frozen i was wondering why he was plain ignoring me. guy, i'll go back to you it happens sometimes i might say something out of turn or -- you know, but you took that away from -- >> it happens. >> from yellen's comments on the dollar >> i was talking about comments she made i think a week or so earlier when she talked about the want for a strong dollar policy, that sort of thing maybe this is walking it back. i'd interesting. you talk about historically administrations are about a
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stronger u.s. dollar policy, which might be true publicly i think privately they have a much different view. this posture is sort of 180 from the trump administration, which is vocal in their want for a new dollar in terms of a weaker dollar, be careful what you wish for in terms of stock traders and investors out there. the u.s. dollar -- >> i have to interrupt, guy. we want to go straight to president-elect joe biden. >> i mean this from the bottom of my heart. if there are any angels in heaven, they're all nurses we know from our family experience what you do with the pain and courage you absorb for others thank you. your imminence, cardinal gregly and adams, to heal, we must
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light ♪ ♪ it's a cold and it's a broken hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ ♪ hallelujah ♪ unity on the eve of president-elect joe biden's inauguration tomorrow as we saw the lights go up on the national mall we also saw lights go on across
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the country in cities and towns at municipalities iconic buildings like the empire state building, the space needle in seattle. to honor the 400,000 lives lost to the coronavirus "fast money" will be back after this hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions for online u.s. listed stocks. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today. ♪ what do i do when my love is away, ♪ ♪ does it worry you to be alone? ♪
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i think you can too. call now! welcome back to "fast money. general motors gaining nearly 10% as a tech titan makes a big investment in its driverless car market >> best day ever for general motors this stock -- and i know people will say it's not really its all-time high. it's just since it came out of bankruptcy but yes, it's the highest since it came back from bankruptcy in 2009 gm and micropartnering and combining for an investment in crews which is the gm subsidiary which is developing autonomous vehicles they're in there with honda and others the valuation for cruise is now
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$30 billion. microsoft will be working with cruz bringing software, cloud computing technology for autonomous vehicles which is crucial as they develop this autonomous car network >> we look at the self-driving space, this is going to be the largest mission of a.i. out into the world. given those complementally capabilities and opportunities >> we're still a ways out from -- i'm thinking maybe a couple of years before we see the cruise ah taj muss vehicles. this is something people will look at and so, oh, come on, you can't be serious in the last month, what's the best performing auto stock gem motors better than ford, toyota none of them have had a better
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month than gm. the ones that people really focus on, talking about waymo cruise and a.i., these are the publicly confirmed valuations of the companies in terms of cruise or a aroi. many people believe wam o's valuation is higher than that. though the company, wamo itself, is not giving a valuation now. >> we've be talking about this rerating of general motors for a long time. i'm thinking about the cruise unit which may have been undervalued before as reflected in the price pop but also the eb part of it because it happened on a day when aurilian got funding. it's got these two wig important hot areas of the market that are
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potentially undervalued in the marketplace. >> yeah, really undervalued, and i think -- you know, there's a lot of confusion about the debt. i think the total interprice value is somewhere around 65 billion. here's the thing about cruise. a year -- i think it was almost two years ago that dan alan, who is the head of cruise was asented to either ipo it or spin it off i think it would unlock a lot of value. this is cruise this is not their ev business. i don't think they get enough value for cruise but they get all of their share of losses that makes its way through the statement. they're getting penalized there but i don't think they're getting the benefit of cruise. and i think that hard for people to say, oh, i can't buy it here because look where it was two, three months ago it never should have been where it was with two, three months ago. i'm long i say if you do home long, it's
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as if you bought it at this price. if i owned none, i would probably start buying at this process. >> would you want gm to spin out cruise >> no. no i don't think they need to certainly, part of -- i think what's going on here are the synergies of gm as a technology company and as an oem and all their capabilities across the board. first of all i've be adding to this position over the last four months a couple of dead years and a couple of exciting months on top of a decent year but based on their ability to run profitably. what's interesting to me is the same analysts that are now really drooling over this e.d. business and bright drop, people like fedex is going to have a major, major impact, i think, in their cher shall use in the valuation of the company the analysts that are now paying
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attention to this are the same ones that are upgrading test ha a couple of years ago on the dynamics associated with autonomous nev we haven't talked about the hydrogen fuel cell and the battery. i like the whole thing i like the stock here. if anything, i think it's going significantly higher >> guy, we usually play this game called "would you rather. i'll pose that question to you >> one of my favorites >> anyway. gm or ford, ford, which by the way, has a stake in rivion >> we haven't played that in a while. i'm going to say gm and i give kudos to them who have been steadfast in this. if you just give a ten multiple on the $6 gm is going to earn, it's a $60 stock and you can do the math.
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it's a $72 stock there's up side here for sure. you mentioned the spin offs. quickly, the psx spin off didn't go marley well e-mail is not drilled with paypal, the same for mcdonald's and chipotles. that's just my opinion >> like tv shows, the spin off's never as good as the original. where do you stand on gm >> well, joanie loves chachy >> exactly i was chicago of that one. >> i'm with guy. i think ford is the one here it just broke this long-term down trend it's trading at about ten bucks here the mustang mack e cross overe i think these are going to be massive massive hits for ford. want rerating. you talk about investment.
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you talk about their push into it i think these are going to be hot cars for ford. >> coming up, pumping the breaks on peloton sent the stocks skidding today the details when "fast money" returns. nature's bounty is here for you. the number one herbal supplement brand has everything you need to help keep your immune system strong. immune support comes naturally with nature's bounty. folks the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be a deep learning engineer to help make the world a smarter place does this come in blue? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq
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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of peloton, downgrading to a sell. ubs said skewing to the downside it's worth noting in the same call ubs raised its price to 124 a share, about $26 lower than where it is right now. guy, that's going to be the argument valuation here >> no. i admire the call that i think henry blodgett we're all familiar with him. he made a comment like he wished he made some of those calls. i better to do it ahead of earnings than behind it. valuation is stress. we talked about it for a while we also talk about the fact that it's not just a bicycle. there's so many verticals they can get themselves into. 124, up from 115 i like the call.
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if it gets to 124, i think you buy it with both hands again >> this would be the prime example, i would think, karen. do you >> yeah. i think so they couldn't have asked for a better setup you know, there was an article, i think, this weekend about some growing pains and the delivery problems they've been having and so that's what happens when you grow this fast good for them for downgrading it down $7. i think it hung in there really well, considering. this stock is extraordinarily high value, in my opinion. i can't get involved with this valuation. >> bracing for turbulence. coming up top of the hour, we're sitting down with the ceo of logisticsy tech. don't go anywhere. much more "fast" after this.
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experience the wonders of the mexican caribbean at nizuc resort & spa, where paradise is personal. nizuc is a world to discover unto itself, day or night, indoors or out. something wonderful awaits. welcome back to "fast money. u.s. air fare prices plunged to the lowest price on record
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ticket prices are down 30% year over year and that's putting pressure on airlines interesting options activity mike, what did you see >> we were looking at the usks al two times as many calls trading as put that's in line with the h.4% or so that the stock has averaged over the last eight quarters one of the trades that stuck out to me was actually a trade a buyer of those is obviously betting that the stock will either trade below that level or possibly hedging against the risk that makes a lot of sense when you consider where it was. in late october it was down to about 32 1/2-ish now might be an interesting thing to think about hedging it. >> tim, what do you think of unioned?
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>> i think if you look at the majors, united is the one that has most of the operational learning with a desent balance sheet. much as delta has, they seem to be clinging and heading the 50-day average you have an upward move from here after consolidating for the last couple of weeks they're getting to a place they're challenging. right now these stocks are trading at about 85% of normalized earnings. i think the stocks can move higher and i think they will continue to. >> it is amazing to see that stat, karen, for q3. down 30% year on year, the airline ticket prices. gives you a sense of how much the airlines have to climb out of that hole in terms of pricing. >> right and then on the balance sheet how much debt they have to climb out of as well i think i did see something about them being hopeful about some relief from the biden administration we talked about that a lot
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who should provide relief. i thought it should be the equity or the bond holders, not necessarily the government when so many other industries are in distress >> all right thank you. ow sure to tune to the full sh up next, final trade i have an idea for a trade. oh yeah, you going to place it? not until i'm sure. why don't you call td ameritrade for a strategy gut check? what's that? you run it by an expert, you talk about the risk and potential profit and loss. could've used that before i hired my interior decorator. voila! maybe a couple throw pillows would help. get a strategy gut check from our trade desk. ♪♪
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> 10 cent music it's the spotify of china. another big acquisition continues to be the way to play online music in asia >> i like morgan stanley we'll see how their wealth management is. they closed on e trade that's probably been good. they're making business. so long, morgan stanley. >> yeah. mel, i think you called this a double upgrade when an analyst goes from sell to buy. they did that with american express today. breaking out of a two-month consolidation. i like american express here
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>> guy, adamy. >> what reign heinous top is he wearing, could you clarify for us quickly >> is it a check of some sort? >> know. i'm sure it's made of hemp guy, final trade o. >> slb in earnings on my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field forinvestors there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. it's my job to entertain, educate and teach you how this business works call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. what

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