confirm as treasury secretary this evening that vote is 5:30 p.m. eastern time so that could be key as well though the market has already welcomed her with open arms. >> very much so. >> looked like another day where there might be a little chance for selling pressure to emerge even though there's will be a little bit of loss and momentum. >> apple up 3% and up 12% in one week putting pressure on themselves before the earnings later in the week. that does it for "closing bell." thanks for watching. "fast money" starts right now. >> i'm melissa lee, and this is "fast money. tonight on "fast" the reddit rebellion. game stop, blackberry, irobot and amc blasting off as a army of retail traders take it to reddit and pile into names we'll break down what's behind the trend and getting ready for a huge slate of earnings which got us in the mood for a good old-fashioned trade it or gave it call it the burrito bowl, a big news out of chipotle that could

be a total touchdown for investors. start off today with a all-time high at apple. the stock up 80% in the past year the do you buy this ahead of the report tim, you're shaking your head. i barely got the question out of my mouth the. >> it was really more just the extraordinary move here, and there were a couple of upgrades and there's a sense here that actually sell side consensus is like the relative to the buy side who is probably 10% higher both on revs and eps the multiple on a forward 12-month is now 3 is times, and -- and, yet, look, i think there's a lot of levers for the company to pull here, and i don't think they really care about pulling levers but the services revenue is really, you know, settled into this high teens growth rate. the app store apparently is going to do 20 billion calendar fourth quarter which is going to be up 45% or so so these are the

drivers to me. if you think that this has been a full transition to really a services-based earnings profile even though we know it's still about 5g, the market is kind of de-risking and smoothing out the story here, and i think that's where we are, so i was shaking my head because it's just extraordinary. the if -- if -- i'm not going to do this because it's not my place to play this game. i'll just say that i'm not running scared from apple, but i don't think you have to buy it before earnings. >> yeah. tim had mentioned how wall street, the sell side is a little bit behind on this one. take a look at the average analyst pride target on the stock, $134 and change and that's, of course, well below where we are right now, guy adami. so does that mean that apple could actually be okay into earnings because the expectations are not high enough >> yeah, absolutely, and obviously pete can speak to

this, and tim and karen have been on this for a long time yeah, absolutely it could beat so out of the last 15 first quarters that we've had eps beats, sport of like the rest of the year it's a bit of a wild card, but with that, the reason to own apple for years was the valuation was too cheap. now you can make an argument that it's maybe too expensive but it can probably stay here for quite some time. i think the game you have to play with yourself is where am i taking profits, taking money off the table if they beat and where am i reloading and getting in if they miss, and that 134 level for a lot of different reasons, the price target you just mentioned makes sense. that was sort of the high back in the beginning of september, and i think on the upside making you're look for the mid-150s to make money off the table i'm inclined to think that they will surprise people again because that's what they have done, and that's probably given the fact that they didn't give guidance in the fourth quarter that's why they surprised poem this quarter. >> is it expensive, karen, when you consider all the cash?

>> you know, there's not that much cash. this owes a lot of debt as well, so i think the net is maybe $70 billion which sounds like a lot of money to you and me buton the market cap of this stock it's not actually that much. i'm long i went home long, so it's like buying it right here it is expensive. it should be expensive i agree with guy i'm not sure that this is a this quarter story that matters for sure, but it's a 5g story which is going to play out a lot longer than just over this quarter. the valuation is high. it's not my biggest position if it, i would be either selling some upside calls which pete could probably do a lot better or take some money off the table. >> yeah. >> and, pete, you've said for a long time it's all about the services in terms of the extra layer of growth but right now as mentioned this stock has really moved on the iphone 12 supercycle, 5g superpsych israel

so don't we have to see that come in really strong? >> well, i think that that will, but the focus really should be and should have been rotating away from the phone a little bit. we all know the strength of the phone. we totally get it, but after it dropped underneath 50% of the revenue, i think we were starting to see the real apple which is services and wearables become 34%, and you look over at the phone and you're talking about a little over 40%, so you've got the area where you've got all the margin, mel and a lot of growth and credible growth and mean while you've got the phone which now with 5g and the potential for -- they have been talking about trying to get out even more in terms of production, so it would seem to me that that seems to be going very well, very strong, very -- it seems like that that's where the customer wants to bring and get their stuff. but the apple 1 as well, the way they have bundled that up as well, look at this, 31 times, agree with tim, that sounds high but i don't know if that's high given where the growth is and

given where the margins are going based upon what we're seeing right now and what we've seen over the last two years worth of quarters that growth in that particular area or those particular areas and specifically the rapid growth that we've seen in the wearables themselves. >> guy, do you agree with pete that apple is much less of a phone company, or is it really -- the notebook said it's expecting 240 million units for fiscal year 2021 and with that calculation it expects apple to be a $3 trillion market cap company in the next 12 months. it is the phone that is the crux to that argument >> well, the phone is the driver for everything really if you look at it, right? their ecosystem is derived from the phone. i think we all understand that, but with that said the growth opportunities within that ecosystem that pete just discussed, i mean, that's really -- that's why they are getting -- that's why they are going from a 12 forward pe five years ago to 32 times now and

deservedly so. just four or five years ago and apple will be the first person to tell you that they don't want to be. they want to be everything but the obviously what they want to see is the core strength and where they derive all the growth and it's so much more than a phone company now. more so obviously than just four or five years ago. >> how is the context of today's market, tim, educate you in terms of how you would forecast apple trades based on its earnings is there a propensity for people to want apple to go higher, for instance, given the chase that we've seen in some retail names, seven minutes in and i mention gamestop, but like a gamestop, for instance >> well, i think we're going to get into that story and what is retail and what is retail buying and what are retail stocks, and, look, apple -- also, i think you're getting to what its place here in the market and, you know, what does it mean for the market overall with apple making

a move like this, and let's remained people of what the weightings are for the stock, 12 1s of the s&p. it's 2.35 trillion right now, the world's biggest stock, and i think the desire for the market to take this thing higher if the market is moving higher or which is the tail, which is the dog is very clear here. look, the fact that this chart looks fantastic clearly bodes very well, and we've talked about the resurgence of big-cap tech over the last week the move that google had last week was extraordinary so leadership from this group at times has been a concern for the market because we didn't have that breadth, but it's -- it seems we've been having this -- this push/pull between big cap tech and mega cap tech and then broader clickials, and i think that relationship continues. >> all right as apple hits a new all-time high our next guest is worried a pair of painful scenarios is in the market and one that could spark a 15% selloff.

julian, good to see you. your two scenarios involve speculation on the part of retail investors so tell us about the two scary scenarios. >> so, you just talked about what you -- what the group thinks the positioning is coming into this very critical earnings week and we would suggest, much like we've seen with the smaller more speculative growth type of stocks that as well the public is very committed to long call options whether you're the world's largest market cap company or you're the world's largest electric vehicle company trading at 200 times 2021 or you're a premiere semiconductor company trading at over 50 times. you are vulnerable to disappointment here, particularly in light of the fact when we think about what's happened with earnings season in general you've had very tepid reactions to very good earnings reports so far it's early, but this is the kind

of setup that's poised for disappointment, and then, again, when we think about the other setup here is that we're going to get news from both the fed this week as well as further news on the stimulus negotiations front and the market is pricing in a very positive scenario for both we don't necessarily think the narrative is quite that simple, and all those together could spark a pullback. >> so basically the two scenarios in a nutshell is the overshoots to the upside or the overshoot to the downside which is exacerbated by the presence retail investor and primarily in the options market, is that fair >> it is in large part to the options market, so what we've seen particularly over the last week and the markets admittedlyvery positive reaction to the events that we saw coming out of january 6th and obviously the sigh of relief that january 20th went without incident is the

raising of the speculative pre-disposition of the public, and that is very much sort of what we think we saw as a money manager back in 1999 and 2000, the start of what is the potential of a speculative overshoot for as high as 4,500 hand by some measures given the valuations of the market, you could even see 5000. do we think that's going to happen no, but what we do want to stress is that this is a time to, you know, just sort of re-evaluate where you are in terms of other stock holdings to not get emotional whether you get that overshoot to the upside or you get this pullback to the downside and stay focused on the long term which in our view is an economy reopening, higher share prices and a steeper yield curve. >> julian, it's tim so outside

of multiples and things that we can make some arguments but you're giving us some guidelines for both rashal and non-emotional thinking meeting fundamentals what's scaring you right now in terms of what's overheated we're going to talk about game stock and retail fomo and we've talked a little bit about the apple multiple peel back a couple more issues that give you pause right now. >> well, again, a lot of this advanced, tim, in the last several months has been driven by small caps, and we do believe small caps will outperform they have come a very far distance in a very short amount of time, and i think part of that narrative also leads back into the spacs which has been a place of extreme interests and these are parts of the markets that while the long-term story is very much intact our subject because of the increasing volatility to these kind of pullbacks that are going to look

scary and frankly could drive some people out of the market, we don't want that to happen what we want is for people to be positioned such that if we do get a 10% to 15% pullback you can see yourself being a buyer there, not a panic seller. >> julian, this is karen thanks for coming on so it seems like the market is kind of priced in a stimulus, yet it's joe biden might be hitting somewhat of a wall how do you think that plays out? could that be the catalyst for your selloff >> well, absolutely, karen, and, again, when we look at the dialogue that developed over the weekend and what we see so far is it's going to be a struggle we do think that the market is discounting somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 trillion in the first quarter of the year brue it's going to be every single nickel is clearly going to be hard fought, likely

requiring some sort of deal-making compromise with the republicans and it's by no means a guarantee, and so for -- from our point of view you really are pricing in the scenario without thinking about either the delay in the bill or any other residual risks around the bill. >> hey, julian, your official price target for year-end s&p 500 is 4000 but you also have a price target which we showed if the speculative mania grows hand that's 5047 which seems like a very precise number considering that this is a forecast, you know, that you're spec late on if speculative media grows so how do you get to that number >> sure. there's two ways first is the frame of reference is if you think about it in the four to five months prior to the top in 2000, the nasdaq basically doubled. obviously we're thinking about it in the s&p 500 terms, and

what we did is looked at various measures of valuation, and one of these measures, the cyclically adjusted scenarios, if you got to the all-time highs in 2000 and what we saw in 2009 that's how you get there. >> julian emanuel, btig. i know, guy adami, keep you up at night >> yeah. >> do either of those two scenarios, are they among those things >>ia amongst my advanced age that keeps me up at night i mean, we won't get into the nitty-gritty details no, i mean, i'm actually more scared of the 5047 than number of the downside. i mean, what he's talking about there is an absolute mania if we get there given the valuations and the time frames that he references, but, you know, valuation, you know, we talk about it all the time and it should matter but when jerome powell said it didn't matter a month, month and a half ago

that's when all bets were off and the market has been on its merry way. wrongly or rightly, if you made money on the way up, it doesn't matter if you understood the reasons why or if you've just done it on the back of liquidity. those dollars in your bank account are exactly the same, so i understand what's going on i am concerned by it, but there's nothing out there right now that indicates it's going to stop. >> pete, just quickly. are you worried about that 10% to 15% downside scenario and specifically julian calling out the options market and the activity of the retail investor. >> yeah. there is definitely some concerns there, and we all know the mania that we're seeing, very irrational moves. i know we'll talk about that specifically later, but i think the reality, is mel, i have been moving more and more into what we call stock replacements where i'm getting out of some positions of my stocks that i'm getting a little bit uncomfortable with and actually replacing that with options, putting calls on rather than being long stock that way i have a very limited amount of risk and still can get some that have reward especially given a little bit of time out

into the future so i've been doing more and more of that and also been buying spy puts to protect my position as well so i definitely have hedges on looking for the possibility of a 5%, 10%, 15% pullback. >> all right coming up. moderna getting a shot in the arm today. the big news out of the big pharma company sending shares higher later, we're taking you inside wall street's reddit rebellion chat threads blowing up shares m gamestop, blackberry, irobot, soany others what's fueling this frenzy we've got the details when f-fun returns.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of moderna getting another boost on big headlines surrounding the covid vaccine. meg terrelle joins us with the details. hey, meg. >> reporter: melissa, we've been talking a lot about new variants of concern from around the world and wondering whether our vaccines will work against them. there's, of course, the one from the uk known has b-117 and the one associated with south africa known as b-1351. that one in particular along with p-1 have been particularly concerning about how well the vaccines will work the moderna put out a statement this morning and posted a paper to a pre-pipt nod peer-reviewed server saying the vaccines appear to protect against those

strains and for the b-117 in particular as the same level as for other strains. sixfold lower neutralizing titers for the b-135 is variant, the one associated with south africa which sounds really bad but they still expect the vaccine to protect at that level but they will test a booster shot of the original vaccine and develop a new vaccine targeting that particular strain to see if that helps with the level of immunity we talked with the ceo of moderna this morning about this approach here's what he said. >> what is unknownable right now is what will happen in six month, in 12 months, especially to the elderly because, you know, they have a weaker immunity system and the immunity might go down at that time, and because of that unknown and with that will always stay at the forefront of the fight against covid-19 we decided to take out

of an abundance of coast guards a new vaccine that's going to be tested in the clinic very quickly. >> reporter: so he's talking about this, melissa, like a market that could resemble the flu shot where we'll have to update the vaccines every year and people would have to get the booster shots every year and that's why you're seeing moderna's stock up 12% this looks like a current revenue stream >> meg, thank you. guy adami, had some bearish analysts here on the past and this is a one shot, excuse the pun, kind of deal, then that's it you get the shot in the arm and you're off and have a nice life, but here if we're talking about a booster, that could be some very good news in terms of the revenue as meg had mentioned. >> no question about it. karen talked about this for a while, the difference between pfizer and moderna in terms of monetizing the moderna side and not necessarily with pfizer. i think we had the jeffries analyst on and even on his

downgrade i think he had a $140 price target and that's basically where we closed. the stock did everything it needed to do on the downside and traded to 98, 100 a few weeks ago and now it's bouncing and probably continues to grind into earnings but what we have said and been steadfast on is the fact you're not comfortable in single stocks, the ibb is a place to be, and look i think it made another all-time high today and then you had certain names i know tim talked about this, johnson & johnson all-time high and medtronic trading up close to the all-time high so there are names that still make sense if you're not inclined to get into the moderna/pfizer sweepstakes. >> who you rather rather, pete, and this involves options so please option. >> johnsonism johnson, pfizer or moderna? >> and i only get to pick one, mel. >> yes, that's the way it goes. >> please listen, pete. >> listen. >> this -- this go-round i'll take j&j and the reason i asked

the question i own both pfizer and j&j. >> sorry to interrupt. we've got breaking news. got to go back to meg tirrell. >> p-1 is the variant from brazil, the minnesota department of health now saying they have confirmed the first case of that p-1 variant in a traveler from brazil here in the united states now, that is the first case of this variant that we've heard about here in the u.s., and, you know, folks have said that just because we haven't found these yet doesn't mean that they are not yet. both p-1 and b-1351, the one associated with south africa our surveillance system isn't very good but they did catch this by doing surveillance of samples there in minnesota, so the first case of p-1, the brazilian variant here in the u.s., it has a lot of similarities to that south african variant, and so we'll bring you more when we know about it, but this is just coming out from minnesota, melissa, one cautious and we

know the uk variant, multiple cases across multiple states and this is first one of the brazilian one. >> this sounds pretty scary but the fact of the matter is there could be many, many variants we don't know about because we're simply not doing the sequencing right now. >> yeah. the u.s. is something like 42nd in the world in erms of the amount of sequencing that we're doing of the virus samples so a key proponent of the biden administration's plan on covid has been to increase that sequencing surveillance and obviously hoping that's getting up and running pretty quickly now. >> 42nd in the world, wow. meg, thank you pete, i'm sorry i cut you off. you were going to say j&j, but if you had the ability to choose two i think you were going to say what, j&j and? >> and i own pfizer. >> yeah. >> i look at moderna i think it's a great company, mel. they are doing so much great work right now potentially with these vaccines and the ability to be able to shift and move and pivot in other directions to go

after something else, a different strain and so forth. that's phenomenal, but when i look at the entire company of pfizer and the entire company of j&j that's where i think the difference lies for me right now and that's where i would select both of those names rather than moderna. >> we've got a lot more ahead oven money here's what's coming up next >> the trading frenzy we hind gamestop we'll give you the tiktok on how day traders pushed them higher and squeezed out short sellers and will shares of roku stream higher one big wall street firm sees about a 20% real ahead that tdera and more when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. the gamestop short squeeze rebellion continues as the company surged as much as 145% today before reversing course and finishing the day nearly 20% higher only 20% higher, and the social platform reddit continues to fuel this flame. let's get to kate rooney with more details on this kate >> hey, melissa. gamestop's rally has really been driven by a frenzy of traders on social media if you look at reddit, namely the foreign wall street bets which has more than 2 million subscribers, there are dozens of forums with traders encouraging them to push it higher and squeeze out short sellers. hard to find one pg enough to get r give one on air and one gamer says do not sell we can keep holding our shares but they can't seep holding their shorts and another one final big push for the day, boys, and don't stop now and

bought mine today and holding. good luck all. if you take a look at google trends as well the term gamestop stock has risen in popularity in recent weeks. most of the interest coming from oklahoma, mississippi, wyoming and rhode island we should point out that the trading action wasn't just from the likes of robinhood traders also the most actively traded name on fidelity on monday seen this enthusiasm before for some other stocks regardless of fundamentals if you remember hertz, that was a top traded stock in 2020 with some similar buzz on reddit despite declaring bankruptcy brokers i talked to said there's a lot of good, of course, coming to the retail boom by expanding access but they fear the harassment online and they say people touting stocks on social media are not verified the trades and motives aren't transparent and the new inexperienced traders could be left holding the bag melissa. >> i think that's key, kate. we don't really know who all the users are.

they hide behind whatever handles like gamestop rocket ship and we don't know if it's an actual real person for one. it could be a bot or if they have sort of othery in fairios desires to push the stock up for various reasons. >> yeah, absolutely. anonymity of this is a big issue. other startups talk about, and there's one example of a company called common stock that links to your brokerage account. the trades are actually verified so if you tell someone i bought $1,000 worth of hertz or gamestop they say it shows that's a big fear for people saying you don't know who is behind these trades and some of the youtube videos have gains and people claimed they have earned millions of dollars on some of the trading apps you really don't know when it comes down to it. >> kate, thank you kate reasony >> i know there will be a cohort people out there who lived through the bubble days, et cetera, the manias in the past

and saying this is no different from the yahoo chat rooms of those days why is it different now? this has been going on for time immemorial, but basically the difference is that today retail traders are active in the market like at no other time in the past so, guy, what do you make of this whole thing >> well, that's exactly it last year 10 million new accounts were creed and 6 million robinhood accounts a lot of that money and a lot of the stimulus checks seemingly found their way into the stock market i think once sports went away last year, i think a lot of people found their fix basically betting on stocks, so it morphed into this. what is interesting in terms of gamestop specifically this, started on january 13th when they gave you the holiday comps that were better than expected had a vc behind them taking a couple of board seats. the all that being said, none of

this makes a lot of sense when you see a stock go up to $158 today, saw the big move to the downside and trade 160 million shares and typically trades 13 the unfortunate reality in my opinion is that more people wind up losing money here than making money, and i think, unfortunately, like many things in life people need to learn and figure this out the hard way. >> if only pockets of the market are impacted by the price action, karen, why should we care i hate to see it so far we've seen melvin capital suffering big declines that is a hedge fund and the retail trade may ultimately may get hurt but there's no systemic witness from this massive squeeze that we're witnessing with game stop or any of the other stocks. >> i think if the retail investors goes away, what's that

happen in 2000 this, i agree, this is different. this is a turn charged yoo-financed chat board kind of thing. this is insane this is on a scale dish moan, you know, i saw today 14, are 15 million shares trade at 95 4 million traded at 120. those are gigantic losses. the thing that's interesting to me is i'm curious to see whether the s.e.c. really wants to take a look here at are they attempting to ma nip late markets? clearly, yes, and the other thing i wonder if somewhere in there there's a 13-d violation you can't act as a group with more than 5% of the stock working together to try to effect some change without needing to file so, i mean, i -- i admit this is a very diverse group, very disparate and made up of smallish players but, you know, clearly this doesn't smell

right. this is insane. >> yeah. >> what could go wrong >> what could go wrong >> before we get any further in this conversation we should note that the reddit frenzy is playing out in a big way in the options market so we want to bring in mike co-for this part of the conversation. what are we seeing >> one of the things we're seeing and the options markets are tagging along, when you talk about the elasticity of demand usually for value investors your demand for security is going to go up as they go down. here we're seeing exactly the opposite the demand for these things go up as the price goes up. investors should caution themselves demand on those shares will climb as they fall since the price is the only reason they are in them stemming throw begin with another thing to look out for in the options market is whether the volumes are really extraordinary relative to the size of the company. that's definitely true for gamestop not just gamestop, nokia, blackberry when is the last time nokia and

blackberry were trading options volumes that were comparable to or exceeded apple? when is the last time that something like gamestop would see higher options volumes than electronic arts might for the last time that amc theaters were seeing bigger volumes in the options market than disney and netflix. that's the kind of stuff that we're seeing right now hand that's pretty extraordinary when you think about it all of those, by the way, are companies that we're seeing over a million contracts traded today. i mean, that is really remarkable here's something else that's remarkable is that a lot of this flow, these are not, you know, price targets up have a%, up 20, six months to a year these are people betting that the price of these shares are going to increase or decrease by 30%, 40% 50,% in three, four, or five days. this is definitely highly speculative activity, and, of course, if you make those kind of bets, chances are most of those will be losing bets because the stock cannot be up

simultaneously 50% and down 50% one week from now. >> yeah, that's absolutely true. could be up 50% and down 50% in a single day which is basically what we've seen in the past 15 days peter najarian, retail trader, very outdated and doesn't go out for very long, weekly, biweekly you want your options. you're actually in some of these names. the you're in game stop as i mention it. >> i'm in multiple names because they hit on our system all the time guy pointed out jaeb 13th. on the 13th the stock was trading in the low 20s, and there was massive call buying that we had seen that was expiring on the regular january expiration date which was last friday what did we see last friday, unbelievable friday, more than even today, 196 million contracts trading and primarily

the biggest trades that i saw were the january 60s that comes,friday looking for incredible, very, very swift moves but that's part of the mark for a long time. this is something that started this year or that way or beyond meat or tilray or whatever i was a specialist in snapple back in the day. similar kind of situation where you had a huge amount that people would have to borrow just to be able to be short the stock, and i was looking at gamestop and this is one of those that you're seeing that right now. as a matter of fact, i think to borrow the stock right now it would cost you $30 so give that had a little bit of thought in terms of what kind of moves you've got to have and yet you're willing to do that. it's an incredible time right now, mel, and the volume of the options like motorcycle was pointing out into the millions is something that you don't normally see from gamestop >> you for example the reaction

of some of these reddit iris, tim, might be wall street has played this game for years you get portfolio managers and get hedge funds and get them on cnbc or some other channel they talk up their position. that position goes up. you know, why not? why not us why can't we do this would you? is there any way of trading this at all >> the -- the adage out there for a lot of folks is slows over the pros it's regular guys versus doesn't matter a lot of short centers are -- so i agree with what's been said. seen a lot of this before. good for robin hood. there's a -- be very careful none of had this is based on valuation. none of this is based on fundamentals and, you know, at some point that's what it comes back, to by do think the concept

of making money is more important than valuations is really what it comes down, to an for many people that's all they care about. >> yeah, but as somebody who commented today on the network, mike, when fumeals come n that could be a very long time from now. >> yeah. these can last and most of us active traders during the tech bubble we do see volatility like what we're seeing here and oftentimes in valuations that were equally questionable, very hard to fathom or get your arms around the interesting thing that's differing a little bit is oftentimes those were the most recently listed ipo. you would see something like this a lot of these are has-about names that we're talking about and people trying to squeeze it out. kind of an insider's game and

people i think are using modern that forms to get into this and what we need to know is people acting in collaboration with each other, we essentially have to investigate how name packets the price of securities. >> what is considered a group, canned these actors be considered a group if they have never even met each other and their only commonality is being part of this thread on reddit? all issues that we'll keep an eye on in the coming day for more "options action" tune in on friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, the busiest week of the earnings season so we thought it would be a perfect time for trade it or save it is chipotle's big pebo bsur wlet going to be a total touchdown for investors? back with more of "fast money" in two baas

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welcome back to "fast. lennar and the pulte moving

high pete, where do you go from here? >> i own drhorton. i just look across the board, mel. we see what's opinion going on since the pandemic started and i think there's certain areas of the pandemic and reaction to it that's caused people to start doing the obvious which is moving out and moving out the cities and sebastian burns and all the rest of it i think that's still there and we'll in a hybrid society and even though they have hit highs i think there's still plenty of room to the upside for many of the builders the problem is lumber prices that has been an issue that they have all been having to deal with now the prices have shot up through the roof and that has been an issue. that's part of the mar gyp issue that they face but other than that it is a lot of -- the activity of folks that are moving out, we all know how fast we're seeing it, but it really is moving at a pies like i've never seen before. >> if not builders, care, then how do you take advantage of this trend so lowe's, home depot and

whirlpool that, are you know, you buy a house and go to those three places to get not necessarily whirlpool appliances but lowe's and home depot and also we could have that be fixing up their home as a covid play but also as a reopen play and then obviously the tremendous strength of the housing markets so i like all three of those. >> tim, did you fast pitch, power of pitch, did you fast pitch whirlpool? >> i did. >> still in it >> yeah, and the view was first of all the multiple relative to itself on a five-year average about 15% cheap. it's moved stocks up about 10% year to date and it's starting to catch up. the year over year numbers won't be fwrapt for this quarter i believe the report is on wednesday and we have a dynamic where i think that you look forward and, again, look at the margin that these guys are able to even with some higher

shipping costs and higher input costs which i think we're all referring to let's be clear commodity prices and input prices are moving higher and whirlpool is in a fantastic position and then i think you have to look at some of the other components and i like h vac and carrier and train and these industrial companies are so well-positioned for this housing too many. >> all right coming up, chipotle bringing new meaning to the term burrito bowl the why a day could mean big grown and we're not talking guac big first day of the earnings season how should you pitn urlfosioyose ahead of the results when "fast money" returns because it's just easy. bundling for example. you've got car insurance here. and home insurance here. why not... schuuuuzp.. put them together. save even more. some things are just better together, aren't they? like tea and crumpets. but you wouldn't bundle just anything. like, say... a porcupine in a balloon factory. no. that'd be a mess.

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. welcome back to "fast money. the biggest week of earnings season kicking off with names like facebook, starbucks and others getting to set off. we thought it would be time to play trade it or fade it we're starting with two names. tesla gearing up to report already up 25% this month. so, pete, trade it or fade it? >> well, i'm going to say trade,

it mel, just because i think to fight against this thing has been a losing battle and it has been since it seems like forever, but when you look at the ecosystem of this company, the billions of miles collected that they have got, we all know about the autonomous driving and all the rest of it why is it that apple suddenly wants to get into this market as well i think it is the ev space is the place to be. tesla has got a huge front run right now in front of everybody else and they have got this massive idea in terms of what they want to construct 20 million vehicles per year in the next decade or so. i see a lot of positives in front of it. i know it trades at a ridiculous level but it has had a much more improved balance sheet so for those reasons i'm trading it. >> yeah, a big tenet of the bear case is going in terms of access to capital they have plenty that have and can get plenty more if they want it. >> they can, and they did the offering on the add to the s&p which is a very good move.

the balance sheet is no longer a problem. when i say fade it that doesn't mean i would be short it the need something very specific and valuation isn't it if i didn't like it at 313 or whatever it is a couple months ago 881 would be the place where i would say, yeah, you know, what i've got to get in right here do i believe in the ev transformation i am long gm. >> mcdonald's is reporting on thursday so, tim, trade it or fade it >> got to trade this one, and, look, i've been bushel on mcdonald's for a long time and frankly it's been dead money for 18 months. i think the valuation is around 32 times is -- is reasonable, especially given where we've seen some of the leaders, especially those that are getting some multiple rerate and i clearly mean cmg as it relates to gidgetal and loyalty and mcdonald's has done a good job with that and they are doing very well in the covid environment. the menu choices, some of guy's favorite rappers and what not

designing their own meal in milk shake, not the reason to own it but certainly have helped sales during different initiatives >> to tim's point though, it really hasn't done anything in a being lo time and that concerns me listen, the reason i own the stock has been valuation the reason it's stretched prior to seven or eight months ago that's been okay and now the stock is trading sideways to slightly lower tensions with mcdonald's and the franchiseesries problematic. the my concern is that the tape has been amazing other stocks and other cops in this space have been going gangbusters, and mcdonald's despite the shamrock shake and the mac rib can't get it so i'm fading it. >> more breaking news. ylan mui. >> the senate will confirm janet yellen as the next treasury

secretary. she only needs a simple majority 51 in favor and 6 against, all republicans who oppose her nomination still senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said that he does plan to vote to confirm her and that when the president nominates mainstream and qualified candidates he should have an opportunity to assemble his team mcconnell also said though that republicans do plan to have spirited conversations with yellen especially over the new covid relief package but both sides for now are looking forward to working with her to rebuild the economy as janet yellen does now have the votes she needs to be confirmed as treasury secretary melissa? >> ylan, tnkha you >> "fast money" will be right back est 5g network... award-winning customer satisfaction... or insanely great value. now, with t-mobile for business, there's no compromise. network. support. value. choose. all. three.

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stick around for an all new "american greed. a look at the american marketing company used for sex trafficking. catch that tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time okay the lineup is set for super bowl lv and the kansas city chiefs are looking to defend their trophy against the tampa bay buccaneers and chipotle will air its first ever super bowl

commercial and the 30-second spot will cost that many $5.5 billion. chipotle have been a winner during the pandemic with strong digital sales climbing 260% from its march lows the pete najarian, i go to you this is your realm in terms of the football stuff, but, of course, we're looking for a trade on chipotle, too. >> right well, mel, i think this is -- i think it's a brilliant move quite honestly i know like it sounds like a lot of money to all of us but it isn't to chipotle. this could be the most watched super bowl ever. i think based upon what happened this past fall and based upon who the two quarterbacks are in this game with brady and mahomes, this could be an absolutely unbelievable super bowl potentially, and brady is at home with the tampa bay buccaneers, my old team. i love them, man, and i think chipotle is doing the right thing. >> yeah. guy? you're going to watch, right i know you are the. >> watch what? >> oh, yeah. >> oh, the football game. >> the football game. >> i'll be watching -- as long as the rangers aren't playing that night i'll be watching the

football game, absolutely, mel, and i don't want to give away my final trade by i'm all about cmg for a lot of reasons. >> oh, i can't wait. >> luckily the final trade is now. let's go around the horn tim seymour. >> yeah, we talked about housing. we talked about h vac. when utx, united technologies spun out as one of the great trades and i still think there's a lot left in this trade especially when you look at the valuation and where the whole space is so carrier, long. >> pete narnlgion. >> i'm going to give you under armour and i'll stick with the sports we just talked about the super bowl i think under armour has more upside to it, mel and i love that name. i own some calls. >> chairwoman. >> yes i will definitely watch the game those two quarterbacks were just phenomenal, mahomes yesterday, crazy good anyway, i like the banks that come in a lot, citibank if you can get it below 60 which it flirted with today i'm going to buy it. >> i know i'm the only person on

this screen right now that will not be watching the game unless it's like walking past. >> here's the cmg ad the game is not going to be a blowout but our burrito is come see us at cmg goldman sach my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make money my job is not just to entertain but to educate and put it in context. call me at 800-7 43-cnbc or tweet m