>> it's been a one way traffic for equities, commodities like oil and the yield this week but the dollar and gold showing a little bit of a turnaround. >> just today. we'll see if that builds into anything gold has been good along with bonds. >> we are out of time. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. tonight on "fast," records fall on wall street what should be your next move? straight ahead plus we're gearing up for another megaweek of earnings later our chart of the week. this stock adding $172 billion to its market cap since monday that name and how to trade it straight ahead we start off a with the road to records. s&p nasdaq, and russell, up.

there's something big brewing in the bond market. let's go to carter >> carter. >> an exciting week for equities in many ways, the continued bump up is important and exciting what we do know, of course, is that today was the highest close since the pandemic low 1 .18 getting to the 1.2, 1.25 the first, this is a three-four-year chart and the exercise of examining trend. doesn't matter if this is copper or uber. point is when you have a wipeout, if you don't go out of business, so to speak, and can't go out of business, you base and bottom, as measured by your moving average you can see the smoothing mechanism. the average is flattening and is riegz. second chart, it's the exact same chart but it's just using a

trend line instead all the moving averages and automated trend line, the point is here on the second chart where you break above the downtrend. let's zero in on the goings on since the low. what this tries to highlight is you see that sort of epic interday low that's 32 basis points that's march 9th that was a monday. wane moments, six, eight, 10 sigss we were back to 1.28 you can see the two parallel linings. those are the levels that matter the up trending line, the ascending line since the low is the path wife been on. it's very orderly, it's steady, and it's been sequential the sequence calls for more of the same it would call for about 1.28 last thing, look at that spike low in the pandemic, under a wipe that out with your eye. forget that interday low

basically rates bottomed at 0 basis points plus or minus after four months they've been moving up ever since the sequence calls for 1.25 here >> is that going to cause equities to stutter, do you think? >> no. well, equities can stutter for any reason >> sure. >> with 60 basis points or 110, it's still ten-year money that's readily available and cheap. i think you have to see yields getting back to 1.6, 1.7 before you get a scare in the equity market we were at 1.9, almost 2%, the day the pandemic came to the united states, so getting to 1.4, 1.5, it would have to be higher than that >> thanks, we'll see you in a bit. will rising rates wreck this record rally carter says no we'll take up 1.6 or so before that happens

it seems like then we could be in a sweet spot for equities where yields are telling us that the economy is doing better but money doesn't get into expensive. >> right i think that's where we are. this market is in a sweet spot, so we're at all-time highs, which isn't shocking, because -- not because of where the economy is right now but because of where we think it's going to be and we think we're going to have a dramatic improvement i think that we're going to have stimulus, although i think that's getting pretty well priced in. i think we're seeing good earnings many companies have been able to shift and even do extraordinarily well in the pandemic, so this is a great time for earnings. i think, though, that at some point, we often talk about risk premium. when rates get high enough, that equity risk premium will need to go up and that will be multiples will come down and i think that will be the hardest on the super high flyers, the multiples in the stratosphere and better for

the banks. they'll benefit anyway but also from being a low pe kind of industry >> we can also talk about the level of rates till the cows come home but it's the pace at which we get to that rate that's going to make all the difference we saw the market reaction, was it a couple of weeks ago, james, when it all of a sudden went higher markets panicked a little bit. maybe i'm overstating it a little bit but certainly reacted. if we have a trade that happens quicker than we think, then the rates could spike higher quickly. >> right we think in our shop, a 1% increase in 10-year fields is going to slash multiples by about 18%. nasdaq by about 22.5%. we think we'll get a big selloff right there. the rates are too low, given the growth and inflation expectations the biggest risk is if the market starts to carry

two year at 11 basis points. it's the steepest since may of 2017 obviously, inflation expectations at 2.3%, highest since april 2013 this tin nation number's going to rise further with a base adjustment, so the senate just passed the budget resolution i think we're going to step towards approving the stimulus bill by a simple majority. this is going to drive us to those market rates >> implies what we expect to see. banks had a fantastic week, bonawyn. against the gamestop-amc roller coaster, we're 6% higher >> absolutely. it tends to get lost in the noise here just to put this in context, we're still near historic lows as pertains to rates yes, clearly we're all talking about the downward pressure, the

upward pressure it might lead to what we've seen in investors is a propensity to step further out on the risk curve and to play in more speculative areas technology has kind of shifted now to what are the focus. it's been persuasive what i would look at is separating prerev view or p ebitda that's where i start to look for the breakdown from my lens. >> when you say that, it goes to the earnings that we saw this week, which were very good >> yeah. so when you look at the earnings that we saw, it was in the tech companies, so you're really taking your eye off the ball as far as the market participant. all this conversation leads me back to the value over growth rotation, and i think bonawyn

hit it on the head there we're at historic lows and rates. i'd start to worry at two. but that's a stutter step. i'm not worried that the market's going to cave i'm worried that people are going to have a knee-jerk reaction, start to sell the market off and then realize nothing -- we made much to do over nothing, so as long as the economy starts to improve, yeah, vaccines rolling out, the reopenings are starting or will start. i think that's the major concern, so i think the market can move higher. but we're talking about guidance, outlook, and who knows what it looks like middle of the summer. >> right >> be the vaccines don't roll out, i'd start to worry. >> investors need the goods, right, to back up the higher yields 2% is not a problem if we have the actually earnings heining up to support a 2% yield.

karen, you were noticing spreads. everybody else is looking at reddit and wall street and the impact of bank knocks here >> yeah, i think bank stocks were a little oversold, but yeah, this yield curve, i think -- it was james or carter said we haven't seen it since may of 2017. that's almost four years that's reflecting, i think, an economy that's going to be booming. you wonder at what point does it get too hot? down the road somewhere there will be altemper tantrum it will be ugly for sure i don't know when it will happen probably not this year, but that does seem to be the end game at some point but for now, it's all good >> and i guess what's what we've be saying for months and months and months at this point as things pick up so quickly, too quickly, almost, up nation air pressures heat back up,

because that puts it back in jerome powell's court. >> i have been absolutely blown away by the energy behind small caps over the last three months, up over 30% over the period, and you look at the nasdaq bank index, up 46% in this 90-day period, a ton of energy. that momentum has taken us through. we had a little bit of a pullback last week breaking out a new all-time highs. i think we saw a microcosm that story is trickling into the overall markets. the boom is there in stocks. >> anything looking too hot in your view in terms of stocks, either individual stocks or sectors? >> i think the stock market has looked too hot to me and technology stocks have looked too hot to me and the zooms and

the pelotons and all the work from home stocks, because we have to get to the end of that technology line as far as the bullishness and the work from home stocks, but i am glad i fought my gut to sell the market, because i could have sold this s&p at 3,000, so when you say does it look too hot, as long as the fed's in your corner, as long as there's stimulus, i think the market can go higher. >> all right coming up a $172 billion break oumt more than 14% this week. we're breaking down the monster move first, a huge week of earnings look at all the names reporting. you know what that means a mega of trade it or fade it is on deck when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back "fast money." more than 70 companies on deck to report. big names like disney, twitter, underarm ourselves, gem motors making the list. we thought this would be a perfect time to play a little game of -- >> trade it or fade it >> that's right. everybody's favorite game trade it or fade it. let's kick things off with disney grasso, you know how to play

this game. trade it or fade it? >> this is going to be a trade for me if you -- first of all, disney should be sending ing dan loeb should be sending a fruit basket every week the stock has rallied 50% since then let's remember, this is a -- the economy reopening play 16 billion in parks in revenue those parks are going to be busy again. i know you won't be there. i probably won't be there, either but people want to get out and they want a vacation, i think this is definitely a trade it for me >> you know, i'm actually going to fade this one, mel, and steve makes some fantastic points here when i take a step back and think about the story behind why this company has rallied so much -- or the stock has rallied

so much, there was argument that there should be more rerating with regard to netflix as they made all those allocations to streaming. they're within about three turns of each other. i drill down and you say, listen, bonawyn. similarly, but if you look at disney, it's about ten times it's capital intensive i would expect that to trade at a premium for netflix. all in all, i'm fading it. i know i'm likely headed to the penalty box. i'm willing to take that so that you guys can win >> i like the personal conversation that you have, calling yourself by your name. classic. moving on to twitter trade it or fade it, karen >> i'm going to fade it. i mean, last time it was disappointing. it should have been a great, great quarter for them we didn't see since then -- it won't be in that quarter but i'll be interested to hear the effects of trump being booted

from twitter, what effect that has, how much, but also i think it's in the unfortunate position of how they've rallied very, very strongly going into, i think it's tuesday they report, so -- and i haven't been impressed with how they've been able to monetize relative to facebook and google. so i am a fader of twitter >> james, what do you say? >> i want to trade it. twitter and google cloud announced yesterday a multi-year partnership. twitter can analyze data faster. i think they're going to get a lift from the trump experience i think there's going to be a massive positive ad on revenue will likely post their second billion quarter. >> underarm ourselves, bonawyn, trade iter fade it >> i'm fading this one as well listen, this is show and prove i remind you last october this stock opened up around $16, had a quick

reversal after a surprise down to about 13 and a half i'm expecting more of the same i'm fading it. >> all right grasso is. >> i'm going to trade it when you look at this, it's up i agree with bonawyn this yegor a quick fade because it's up 22% basically in seven days they are expanding their product line they're expanding their margins. this reminds me of when lu lu lemon reached out and started including men in their focus groups they're making a hard press to bring women into the fold. i think this one might surprise a lot of people. this is always the underplay to nike i think this one could keep going a little bit higher. >> last 7-let's get to general motors james, mcdonald, trade i it or fade it? >> electric vehicles are coming. they're not going anywhere they've got a 20 a 35 target of all electric they're bringing hyundai and electronic suvs.

hyundai's tapped them to bring self-driving cars in japan i think gm is going to get it right. i've heard your commentary on gm and yes, trucks and suvs are there. but i think gm's poised to take advantage. >> karen >> i agree definitely trade it. valuation, a loan. i fully believe in mary barr they've said it's coming for a long time. they never got the valuation not expensive here i know it's run up a lot we'll see tuesday or wednesday i like it long >> how is this for a twist >> game within a game. steve grasso, would you rather general motors or ford, which is also getting a similar sort of rerating in the market we discussed seller earnings farley knocked it out of the park on a conference call what do you think >> i think ford seems to be chasing the dog here, and both of them haven't really impressed me, gm or ford, but it seems

like gm really put the hard press on ev as james was saying, gave a detailed explanation to it i think they can lead. i think ford seems to be following, not -- i know they spent a boat load of money trying to compete in the ev world but i think gm will probably get the hat tip of this >> chart of the week this tech stock surging since monday the name of the trade. later, should you roll the dice on gmle? the company gears up for its earnings stick around "fast money" is back in two.

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for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome back to "fast money. time to reveal our chart of the week surnging 14 and a third percent

since monday adding to its market cap alphabet, the stock ripping higher earlier in the week karen, you always advocated for the rerating of this stock at what point does it look expensive? >> not here. look, i could argue it looks less expensive than it did a week ago the magnitude of that earning beat was something the beat was 30% higher than what the street expected that is huge cloud was great. i think we'll continue to see strength in advertising. we haven't seen travel come back yet. there will be a beneficiary of that don't forget the cash hoard of $15 million that you get no credit for the pe for next year is slightly above the market and yet it should be well above the market, so i think in the tech world, it's a great value

staying long >> talk about rerating at least 15 firms on wall street raised their stock susquehanna is a street high of $3,000 a share bonawyn, where do you stand on alin a bet >> don't fight the feeling listen, i'd rather people buy into this than be late we've seen it with teslas and other names. i didn't go there. what i will say is they've shown they can hit on automatic cylinders. don't forget about autonomous and other blets. there are still aspects and travel to this that let them exist in this world that we know and also allow them up side once we return to normal. >> about 10% of search results were travel prepandemic. feasibly, if we got back to normal, steve, you could recapture that >> absolutely. when you look at it, karen said

on cloud, cloud was up 47% gross revenue was up 27% tube ad revenue was up this is one that has been underrated literally by the wall street community and it can move much higher from here. >> i think you're in full agreement on this one, right, james? >> i am in full agreement. full disclosure. my baby brother is a double headed google. this the company had so many pockets of value that they haven't unleashed yet. ton of up side here, agree with bonawyn, agree with the whole gang google's got a lot of room to run. they can control their destiny this is a business to continue to own even at these levels. >> yeah. karen, was there anything about the report that begged questions for you in your mind, whether it be use of cash or what-not >> i mean, i really wish it's -- it's almost like cash is

dragging the balance sheet i wish it would be more aggressive we've been saying that for a while. they're lowly coming around. they could do more than that i understand not wanting to be a difficult dend payer, that's fine they continue to build cash on top of that hoard. they have debt of 2060 that's as nice cheap financing if they ever need it >> time for the final trade. in honor of the super bowl this sunday we make these your big game bets. around the horn. james. >> oh, mama, we got a 50% pop last week. i think we'll get a big pop the next couple of weeks >> karen >> yeah, we talked about it in trade it or fade it. it's definitely trade it >> bonawyn >> with althe speculative mania going on, please remember to invest it's a core tenant spot. you got to have it as part of

your portfolio if you're further out on the risk curve. >> steve grasso. >> alus, it's a clean battery company, alusa energy. >> interesting that does it for us.

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tonight, a directional plan. disney rolling the dice on mgm keeping cool with yeti with us, carter worth, mike co-and taupe zhang let's get right to it. magical ride up. our chart master says the house of mouse could be heading to a fresh all-time hig